Bitcoin climbed to $69,550 on Wednesday, its highest point in over a week, after a sharp swing upward from around $62,350 in less than a day. The move came as US stock markets turned green again, giving investors across the board a reason to buy back in. Related Reading: Crypto’s Biggest Bull Run Could Come From The Most Unexpected Place: AI Bubble ETF Cash Returns After Five Weeks Of Outflows One of the clearest signs of renewed confidence came from the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund market. Reports say US-listed Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $257.7 million in a single day on Tuesday — a notable turnaround after five straight weeks of withdrawals that had drained roughly close to $4 billion from those same funds. Fidelity drew approximately $83 million of that total. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust attracted close to $79 million. The return of institutional buying added fuel to a rally already building on the back of a calmer macro backdrop. The broader stock market’s recovery was partly tied to US President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address on Tuesday night, in which he described his first year in office as an economic success. He pointed to falling mortgage rates and a 1.7% drop in core inflation over the final three months of 2025. Markets took the speech as a sign that the policy chaos seen in recent months — particularly around tariffs and court battles — might be settling down. Spot Buyers, Not Speculators, Are Behind This Rally What makes this price move stand out is the data beneath the surface. Reports note that Bitcoin’s aggregated open interest — a measure of outstanding futures positions — has actually been declining even as prices climbed. It fell from above 240,000 BTC earlier in the week to around 235,167 BTC. That kind of drop suggests traders with borrowed money were closing out positions rather than opening new ones. Funding rates tell a similar story. They remain slightly negative at around -0.0037%, meaning short sellers are currently paying fees to traders betting on higher prices. That is an unusual setup during a strong rally, and it points to a market where aggressive speculation has been squeezed out rather than amplified. Related Reading: Bullish Signal? Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Turns Positive After Months In Red Ticking Upward The cumulative volume delta — which tracks whether buyers or sellers are more aggressive on spot markets — has been ticking upward, confirming that real purchasing activity is driving the move. According to market experts, options market dynamics are also playing a role. Dealers holding what is known as a positive gamma position tend to buy when prices dip and sell when prices rise, as part of routine hedging. That behavior acts as a natural shock absorber, smoothing out big swings and making explosive breakouts harder to sustain in either direction. Featured image from Yellow, chart from TradingView
The Bitcoin price action over the last few months has been unpredictable. But one thing has been clear, and that is the fact that bears have remained firmly in control of the price action. From here, there are a number of ways that the Bitcoin price could play out, with most speculations pointing toward a possible recovery. However, there are levels that the Bitcoin price must maintain in order to actualize this recovery or risk losing ground to bears. Bitcoin Price Needs To Hold Above $60,000 Crypto Analyst Swallow Academy, in a recent analysis, showed that the $60,000 level has become one of the most important support points for the Bitcoin price. This is because this was the lowest point of the early February crash, suggesting that bears may want to retest it again. Related Reading: Dogecoin Vs. Shiba Inu: What Meme Coin Should You Buy For Most Returns In 2026? Given this, it has become imperative that bulls hold this in order to activate another recovery trend. In this case, if bulls are able to successfully defend the price and hold above $60,000, triggering a reclaim of buy-side volume, then a recovery will follow. The analyst predicts that such a recovery would see the Bitcoin price bounce back to the $70,000-$75,000 area. As a result, the major city of liquidity would be wiped out. After this, a downtrend would eventually begin, which would be the natural path for such a trend. However, in the case of bulls failing to hold $60,000 and buy-side pressure fails, then sell-side pressure is expected to rise. This scenario would see the Bitcoin price begin to dip faster than expected and trigger another crash trend, to push it toward new yearly lows. Related Reading: What To Expect For Ripple’s XRP If A Retail Run Were To Happen Swallow Academy’s analysis posits that a break of the local lows would result in another very deep move to lower lows. While this is not entirely bearish, as the price is expected to recover from lows, the chart shows that the Bitcoin price could dip below $44,000 before a local bottom is then established. Currently, Bitcoin bulls have mounted a notable defense above $62,000, suggesting that this is the next level to beat for bears. Alternatively, the previous cycle low lies at $61,354, and a break below this point would be the first time that Bitcoin has done this in history. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
Strategy’s preferred equity trades back at $100 as corporate adoption expands at Strategy World 2026.
Jane Street is a major authorized participant in spot bitcoin ETFs. That's not a conspiracy. But the mechanics of what APs actually do at market open explain more than most people realize.
The cryptocurrency market staged a broad recovery on Wednesday, led by a sharp rebound in the Bitcoin price that pushed the digital asset close to the $70,000 level once again. Bitcoin climbed roughly 8% on the day, approaching a price zone that has acted as firm resistance since it was lost earlier this month. The renewed strength was not limited to Bitcoin. Ethereum (ETH) advanced 12%, XRP gained 8%, and Solana (SOL) surged 13%, reflecting a wider return of risk appetite across digital assets. Bitcoin Price Nears $70K As Altcoins Outperform Market experts suggest the bounce may be driven largely by investors stepping in after an extended period of weakness. Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, told Bloomberg that the upward move likely reflects dip-buying activity following the recent selloff. She added that a decisive move back above $70,000 for the Bitcoin price could alter the broader market narrative, potentially restoring confidence after weeks of pressure. Related Reading: Bitcoin May Be In A Price Slump—But Adoption Is In A Bull Market Recent trading patterns also suggest a change in investor positioning. Although demand for cryptocurrencies in the US has softened in recent weeks, it seems that capital is now rotating into altcoins, as evidenced by the gains made by ETH, XRP and SOL, which have outperformed Bitcoin in the last 24 hours. Daniel Reis-Faria, chief executive officer of ZeroStack, noted that Bitcoin increasingly trades within the context of the broader financial system. When liquidity conditions tighten, he said, volatility tends to increase. In that environment, assets such as Solana — which he described as generating “real yield” — may prove more resilient than tokens that were previously driven primarily by momentum. Still, some analysts caution against interpreting the rebound as a definitive turning point. Is Bitcoin Forming A New Bottom? Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, drew comparisons to the market environment in 2022, when a steep decline was followed by months of sideways consolidation before a sustained recovery eventually took hold. He observed that after the 2022 Bitcoin price downturn, it took more than a year for the market to regain and surpass prior highs, suggesting patience may be required this time as well. Galaxy Digital’s head of research, Alex Thorn, offered a nuanced view in his latest Bitcoin price outlook. He argued that the most intense phase of downside pressure is likely already behind the market. Among the supportive signals he cited were Bitcoin trading near its 200-week moving average (MA) and realized price, historically important technical levels. Related Reading: Expert Forecasts $5 Trillions Pouring Into Crypto Post CLARITY Act Passage In addition, more than half of all Bitcoin in circulation is currently underwater, the relative strength index has reached levels often associated with capitulation, and several other on-chain indicators are flashing signs that a bottom may be forming. However, Thorn also warned that even if the worst of the decline has passed, further challenges could lie ahead for the Bitcoin price. He said that market bottoms typically take time to fully develop, and prolonged sideways movement remains a possibility. A downturn in equities could exert additional pressure on digital assets, and the broader market still appears to lack a strong catalyst to drive sustained upside momentum. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted how accumulation from the large Bitcoin entities has remained relatively weak recently. Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score Has Been Struggling To Break 0.5 In a new post on X, Glassnode has talked about the latest trend in the Accumulation Trend Score for Bitcoin. This on-chain indicator tracks whether BTCinvestors are accumulating or distributing right now. The metric calculates its value by looking at the balance changes happening in the wallets of the investors. Additionally, it also accounts for the size of the wallets themselves. This second weighting factor means that larger entities have a stronger influence on the indicator. Related Reading: Bitcoin Nears Death Cross That Preceded Final Bear Market Legs When the value of the Accumulation Trend Score is greater than 0.5, it means large investors (or a large number of small entities) are accumulating. The closer the metric is to 1, the stronger this behavior is. On the other hand, the indicator being under 0.5 implies that distribution is the dominant behavior on the network. The extreme point on this side of the scale lies at 0. Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows how the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score has changed over the course of the cycle: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin price crash in November saw the Accumulation Trend Score take on a dark purple color. Here, a light yellow shade on the indicator reflects a value close to zero, while a dark purple one to a value near 1. Thus, it would appear that the market reacted with a near-perfect accumulation behavior to the November price lows. While December saw continued accumulation, a shift occurred in January; the price recovery rally was met with distribution as the Accumulation Trend Score turned orange-yellow. The cryptocurrency’s price has plummeted since the onset of this selling pressure. The price crash has been met with some accumulation, but from the chart, it’s visible that the indicator’s color has still only been red. “The Accumulation Trend Score has struggled to push above 0.5 since early February,” noted the analytics firm. While the current value suggests aggressive distribution is no longer happening, it’s not necessarily a sign of a return of demand for Bitcoin, either. As Glassnode explained, the trend reflects “persistently weak accumulation, particularly among larger entities, signalling that meaningful capital has yet to step back in.” It now remains to be seen how long the current neutral market behavior will continue and which way the next shift will lean. Related Reading: Bitcoin Capitulation Persists As Short-Term Holders Realize $0.48B Daily Losses BTC Price Bitcoin slipped under the $63,000 level on Tuesday, but the market has rebounded since then as the cryptocurrency’s price has returned to $65,300. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Ether, solana, and cardano all outpaced bitcoin on the day, suggesting a rotation into higher-beta tokens as forced selling from the February crash begins to clear.
Bitcoin continues to struggle to push decisively above the $66,000 level as persistent selling pressure weighs on sentiment across the crypto market. Despite intermittent rebound attempts, momentum remains weak, with buyers showing limited conviction while volatility stays elevated. The broader environment — shaped by cautious liquidity conditions, macro uncertainty, and restrained risk appetite — has kept Bitcoin locked in a consolidation phase rather than a sustained recovery trend. Related Reading: Why XRP’s 0.16 Leverage Floor Ends The Era Of The Flash Crash – And the Hope for a Quick Recovery Increasingly, Bitcoin is not behaving like “digital gold,” a narrative that dominated market discourse for years. Instead of acting as a defensive asset during periods of economic stress, Bitcoin has recently traded in closer alignment with equity markets, particularly technology stocks. This correlation suggests that capital is treating Bitcoin more as a high-beta risk asset than as a store of value comparable to precious metals. This shift challenges a long-standing thesis within the crypto ecosystem. While the digital gold narrative remains influential, current price behavior indicates that liquidity cycles, institutional positioning, and broader macro risk dynamics are exerting stronger short-term influence. Whether Bitcoin eventually reclaims its perceived safe-haven role or continues behaving like a risk asset will likely depend on evolving macro conditions and investor positioning. Correlation With Nasdaq Highlights Structural Shift According to On-Chain Mind, Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq has structurally tightened since 2020, marking a significant shift in how capital allocates to the asset. While earlier cycles showed more episodic alignment, recent data reveals that BTC now frequently trades in tandem with technology equities. Notably, the sharpest correlation spikes have tended to coincide with broader market drawdowns, particularly during bear market phases. This pattern is critical. In theory, an asset positioned as “digital gold” would be expected to decorrelate from risk assets during periods of stress. Instead, the data suggests the opposite: when liquidity contracts and equities sell off, Bitcoin often follows. These synchronized declines indicate that institutional capital increasingly treats BTC as part of the broader risk complex rather than as an independent hedge. Whether this development aligns with ideological expectations is secondary. The reality is that capital flows, portfolio construction frameworks, and macro-driven positioning now play a dominant role in Bitcoin’s price formation. Large allocators appear to manage BTC exposure alongside growth equities, responding to the same liquidity signals, rate expectations, and volatility regimes. Until correlation regimes shift meaningfully, Bitcoin’s behavior is likely to remain closely tied to macro risk cycles rather than to traditional safe-haven dynamics. Related Reading: The $33 Billion Drain: Bitcoin Realized Cap Craters as Capital Abandons the Network for a Second Month Bitcoin Price Structure Shows Persistent Downtrend Pressure Bitcoin continues to trade under clear technical pressure, with price action struggling to reclaim the $66,000–$67,000 zone after a sharp corrective move from late-2025 highs. The weekly chart shows a decisive break below the 50-week moving average, followed by rejection near that level, which now acts as dynamic resistance rather than support. This shift typically reflects weakening medium-term momentum. Price is currently hovering just above the 200-week moving average, a level historically associated with major cycle support. While this area often attracts strategic buyers, repeated tests without strong rebounds can weaken its effectiveness. Volume spikes during recent downside moves suggest distribution rather than accumulation, although confirmation would require sustained follow-through. Related Reading: The Saylor Discount: Why Bitcoin Trading Below Strategy’s Realized Price is a Gift for Late-Cycle Allocators Market structure also shows a sequence of lower highs since the peak near the $120K region, indicating that bullish continuation has stalled. Until Bitcoin reclaims the mid-$70K range and stabilizes above key moving averages, rallies may remain corrective rather than trend-reversing. That said, proximity to long-term support means volatility could increase. Either a structural rebound or a deeper capitulation phase remains possible, depending largely on liquidity conditions, macro sentiment, and institutional positioning in the coming weeks. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
According to a new forecast from an Elliott Wave analyst, the Bitcoin price could be gearing up for more pain as bearish pressures continue to weigh heavily on it. As a final bear market move, the analyst has projected that Bitcoin could crash by more than 14% from its current price near $65,000. Bitcoin Price Readies For Final Bear Market Plunge Elliott Wave Strategy, a market expert on X who focuses primarily on Elliott Wave structures and analysis, has warned that Bitcoin is entering its final leg down of its current bear market cycle. In his updated post, the analyst declared that BTC’s corrective Wave 4 structure has ended precisely as projected. He summarized the outlook bluntly, stating that the relief phase is finally over and Wave 5 is now in motion. Related Reading: Bitcoin Dominance To Experience Major Crash? Pundit Shares What This Would Mean The accompanying TradingView chart shows Wave 5 beginning at the end of a triangle formation, which marked Wave 4. The projected target for the final wave has been clearly defined, with the first measured move expected to drag Bitcoin’s price down toward the 1.0 Fibonacci Retracement level at $60,385. Elliott Wave Strategy has also forecasted a potential market bottom. He expects Bitcoin to decline further to the next bearish target at $55,759, marked by the 1.618 Fibonacci level. Based on the expert’s analysis, BTC’s current structure shows no clear signs of a possible recovery until it completes its correction. As a result, the analyst has urged investors and traders to brace for the potential decline to $55,759, which could wipe out more than 55% of BTC’s value from its ATH levels above $126,000. A Recap Of Bitcoin’s Wave 4 Performance Based on the wave count displayed on the Elliott Wave Strategy’s chart, Bitcoin has already completed Waves 1 through 4 of a five-wave bearish impulse. The structure shows an earlier price breakdown from above $90,000, slicing through the 0.382 retracement at $90,601 before accelerating below $75,300, which coincided with the 0.5 retracement level. Following this, Bitcoin continued its downward spiral below the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement at $71,689.20, marking the start of the Wave 4 consolidation. Related Reading: Here’s What’s Driving The Bitcoin Price Crash Toward $60,0000 In a previous analysis, Elliott Wave Strategy noted that Bitcoin had already entered its corrective Wave 4 structure as of February 12. He warned that the temporary rally above $71,000 that preceded the onset of Wave 4 should not be mistaken for a new bull market cycle, reinforcing his predominantly bearish stance on BTC. The now-completed Wave 4 triangle has been capped by descending resistance near $70,000 and supported by a rising trendline around $66,000. Elliott Wave Strategy characterized this trendline as a classic bearish continuation pattern, suggesting further downside pressure for BTC’s already weak price. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
In a sign of the growing convergence between traditional finance and digital assets, Emirates NBD is reportedly exploring the addition of Bitcoin to its investment portfolio. The development reflects a broader shift in institutional strategy, as major financial institutions increasingly recognize BTC’s potential role in portfolio diversification, inflation hedging, and long-term value preservation. Why Emirates NBD Is Exploring Bitcoin Integration Emirates NBD, one of the largest banks in the United Arab Emirates but frequently described as the UAE’s second-largest bank, is actively evaluating whether to add Bitcoin to its investment portfolio. Crypto market commentator MartyParty has mentioned on X that the news stems directly from comments by Maurice Gravier, the Group Chief Investment Officer (CIO) at Emirates NBD, during an appearance on CNBC Squawk Box. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sees “Most Aggressive” Institutional Selling Ever, Analyst Says Gravier’s key points were viewing BTC as digital gold and framing it primarily as a store of value rather than merely an alternative currency. He noted that Bitcoin has matured significantly, citing its proof-of-work security model, limited supply, and structurally low inflation rate as attributes that enhance its appeal to institutional investors. Furthermore, Gravier has suggested that BTC’s current valuation appears more attractive compared to six months ago, when the price was considered relatively high. According to MartyParty’s summary, the bank has an internet model, and indicates that BTC could reasonably approach the $100,000 range within the next 12 months. However, the projections are still being refined. The Emirates NBD’s bank asset management division reportedly oversees approximately $16 billion in assets, and any potential allocation would be limited in size and used for diversification purposes. Nonetheless, with no final decision or execution, it is still under review amid ongoing market volatility. This consideration has highlighted a growing institutional interest in BTC across traditional finance in the Middle East. How Businesses Are Using BTC Payments At Scale While individuals are focused on Bitcoin dropping to $63,000, with the price down 50% from its high, a major milestone in its underlying network activity last week has largely gone unnoticed. Crypto analyst Fernando Nikolić pointed out that the Lightning Network surpassed $1 billion in monthly transaction volume for the first time, reaching approximately $1.17 billion across 5.2 million transactions in November. Related Reading: Bullish Signal? Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Turns Positive After Months In Red The data shows that the average transaction size nearly doubled year-over-year from $118 to $223, indicating that this is not just micropayment experimentation. Nikolić believes that businesses are using it, and exchanges are moving real money through it. In other words, its actual usage as a payment network just hit an all-time high. In his view, both realities can coexist and underscore a broader disconnect between market narratives and underlying network fundamentals. Also, Nikolić noted that the adoption milestone has received relatively little attention because it challenges the dominant bearish storyline surrounding the BTC price action. Featured image from Peakpx, chart from Tradingview.com
Crypto rebounds sharply from Tuesday's lows, yet traders question whether the move marks a lasting turn or another range-bound bounce.
The AI bellwether reported $68 billion revenue last quarter, expecting it to grow to $78 billion next quarter.
Peter Schiff has a number. And he wants everyone to see it. The longtime gold supporter and Bitcoin critic took to social media this week to argue that when Bitcoin’s price is measured in gold rather than dollars, the flagship cryptocurrency has lost more than 66% of its value since hitting its all-time high in November 2021. Related Reading: Bullish Signal? Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Turns Positive After Months In Red The Math Behind Schiff’s Claim To make his case, Schiff reframed the comparison in a way that sidesteps the usual dollar-based charts. Back in November 2021, one Bitcoin could buy roughly 34.5 ounces of gold. Today, that same Bitcoin buys just 12 ounces — a drop of more than 64% in purchasing power relative to the precious metal. The dollar figures tell a similar story, at least from that starting point. According to Schiff, a $10,000 investment in Bitcoin at the November 2021 peak would be worth around $9,100 today. That same $10,000 put into gold over the identical period would have grown to more than $27,000. Gold was trading near $1,770 in late 2021 and has since climbed past $5,000 — a gain of roughly 185%. Bitcoin, by contrast, peaked at $69,000 during that same bull run. It has since pulled back sharply from a high of $126,200 reached in October 2025, and now sits around $63,000. Bitcoin is now down over 66% when priced in gold since its Nov. 2021 peak over four years ago. Putting that into perspective, had you invested $10,000 in Bitcoin back then, it would be worth about $9,100 today. But that same $10,000 invested in gold would be worth over $27,000. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) February 24, 2026 Bitcoin’s ‘Safe Haven’ Story Gets Complicated For years, Bitcoin was pitched to investors as a modern alternative to gold — scarce, decentralized, and resistant to inflation. The idea was simple: fixed supply would protect wealth the same way gold has for centuries. But recent market behavior has put that story under strain. When economic anxiety rises, many investors have continued to move money into gold rather than Bitcoin. Reports note that Bitcoin has, in several instances, moved more like a high-risk tech stock than a safe haven asset during periods of broader market stress. That pattern has made it harder for Bitcoin to claim the same defensive reputation that gold has built over a much longer history. CNBC crypto commentator Ran Neuner has also weighed in on the subject, saying that the store-of-value case for Bitcoin now faces serious scrutiny. Bitcoin supporters, for their part, push back on the framing. They point out that November 2021 was Bitcoin’s peak — about as unfavorable a starting point for comparison as one could choose. They also point out that the alpha crypto has climbed 320% from its cycle low of $15,000 in November 2023, while gold gained 150% over that same timeframe. For the first time in 12 years, I’m questioning Bitcoin’s thesis. It’s not the drawdown that concerns me; it’s how Bitcoin responded when markets genuinely moved into risk and uncertainty.$BTC evolved from “peer-to-peer cash” into “digital gold.” We fought for ETF approval.… pic.twitter.com/dblggAsanJ — Ran Neuner (@cryptomanran) February 16, 2026 Cycles, Not Trends, Say Bitcoin Supporters Reports say Bitcoin advocates cointend the crypto has always moved through boom-and-bust cycles, with steep recoveries typically following major beat-downs. Supply halvings, shifts in available liquidity, and swings in investor sentiment have historically been the impetus to those rebounds. Related Reading: XRP Fell Nearly 70% — Could History Repeat With An 835% Surge? From that view, the current stretch of underperformance against gold is seen as a normal part of Bitcoin’s cycle rather than a permanent reversal. Bitcoin completed a full market cycle last year, and a period of price correction is consistent with its historical behavior. Still, the gap between gold’s steady climb and Bitcoin’s volatile ride has given critics plenty of material. Schiff, who has maintained his skepticism of Bitcoin for well over a decade, shows no sign of changing his position anytime soon. Featured image from Unchained Podcast, chart from TradingView
Strategy (MSTR) has moved to the very top of Wall Street’s crowded-short leaderboard, according to a Goldman Sachs screen of the 50 stocks above $25 billion with the largest short interest as a percentage of market cap, a positioning shift that matters for the market because MSTR has effectively become a listed, levered proxy for Bitcoin exposure. Wall Street Crowds Into Shorts On Strategy In Goldman’s table, Strategy ranks No. 1 with short interest equal to 14% of market cap, ahead of Charter Communications at 12%. CoreWeave and Coinbase follow at 11% each, with Kimberly-Clark next at 10%. After that, the list compresses quickly: Western Digital, Bloom Energy, Dell, Palo Alto Networks, and International Paper all sit at 8%. Related Reading: The Saylor Discount: Why Bitcoin Trading Below Strategy’s Realized Price is a Gift for Late-Cycle Allocators The screen adds context on size and hedge-fund footprint. Strategy shows an equity cap of roughly $34 billion, with 53 hedge funds owning the stock as of 31-Dec-2025. Hedge funds owned about 3% of Strategy’s equity cap at both 30-Sep-2025 and 31-Dec-2025, and the table shows a (18)% total return year-to-date for the period captured, alongside 0 average days of volume to liquidate the hedge-fund position. By comparison, Charter sits around $30 billion in equity value with 62 hedge funds owning it, also at roughly 3% hedge-fund ownership on both dates, and a 15% YTD return, with 2 days to liquidate. CoreWeave shows a different profile: about $39 billion in equity cap, 62 hedge funds owning it, and high hedge-fund ownership—27% at 30-Sep-2025 dropping to 23% by 31-Dec-2025—with 33% YTD return and 4 days to liquidate. Coinbase appears at roughly $37 billion equity cap with 72 hedge funds owning it, about 2% hedge-fund ownership on both dates, a (27)% YTD return, and 0 days to liquidate. That dynamic is exactly what Fundstrat’s Tom Lee pointed to in a post on X, framing heavy shorting as a positioning signal rather than a fundamental verdict. “More signs of a meaningful low in place,” Lee wrote. “When a stock becomes a ‘consensus’ short, it is also a crowded trade… Hence, a stock can rise on ‘bad news’ because the bad news is priced in.” Related Reading: Strategy Unfazed By Bitcoin Crash, Michael Saylor Vows Quarterly Purchases Brian Brookshire, advisor to Moirai Capital and former Head of Bitcoin Strategy at Swedish firm H100, added: “I suspect a lot of this short interest is still MSTR / BTC basis trade. Jane Street, in particular, has recently acquired a conspicuously large IBIT position. All bets are off when, not if, the BTC bull market returns. mNAV expansion during BTC’s ascent is a spectacular thing.” Saylor’s Message To Bears: “Short us” Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor has been unusually direct about what the company is and what it is not, trying to be for the market. In a prior interview, he argued that heavy short interest is a natural consequence of a company choosing to be a pure expression of a Bitcoin-heavy balance sheet. “You know, my real aspiration now is, if you really hate Bitcoin, I want you to love us,” Saylor said. “Like, we’re the perfect instrument to short, right? Because I promise you I won’t sell it, right? We’re going to be levered long Bitcoin. And if you don’t like it, or if you just want to hedge it, you get to sell our stock or sell puts or buy puts, right?” Saylor’s point wasn’t simply that shorts are welcome, it was that Strategy’s posture is designed to be legible. “We have been laser-like focused. We’re very consistent. We’re very transparent,” he said, before reiterating the operating promise: “We’re going to buy Bitcoin, never sell Bitcoin. We’re going to borrow money intelligently.” For Bitcoin-native investors, the practical takeaway is that MSTR’s equity has become a high-conviction battleground for BTC exposure: longs treat it as an amplified bet on BTC and capital markets access, while shorts treat it as the cleanest way to fade that package. At press time, MSTR traded at $127.80. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Crypto analyst BitQuant has commented on why market participants are not buying Bitcoin and Ethereum despite the recent lows. This comes amid current market weakness, with the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant warning of a deeper decline. Why Investors Are Not Buying The Bitcoin and Ethereum Dip In an X post, BitQuant noted that no one, except Saylor’s Strategy, is buying Bitcoin at $65,000 because of reports that the U.S. may attack Iran. He added that if that happens, many believe that BTC will drop to $50,000, which is why they are not buying. Ethereum is expected to drop further if BTC declines. Related Reading: Here’s All You Need To Know About The Bitcoin Price This Week The analyst noted that these market participants are forgetting that Bitcoin fell from $90,000 to $60,000 without any news or headlines, and that they consider this nuance unimportant. As such, he suggested that BTC and Ethereum could still see lower prices, whether or not the U.S. attacks Iran. However, BitQuant indicated that current prices do not matter in the long-term as Bitcoin and possibly Ethereum are likely to trade higher. He stated that many still don’t understand that BTC is a system and that they only see it as an asset. The analyst added that for many, BTC resembles a football match where they celebrate when there is a goal and leave the stadium when there isn’t. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the broader crypto market are currently facing downside pressure not only due to a potential U.S. attack on Iran but also due to the uncertainty around the Trump tariffs. The U.S. president over the weekend announced plans to hike the global tariff rate from 10% to 15% after the Supreme Court ruled against the tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). BTC Could Still Drop Below $40,000 A CryptoQuant analysis recently suggested that Bitcoin could still drop below $40,000 to around $38,900, which is the long-term holders’ (LTHs) cost basis. The analysis also alluded to historical precedent, noting that each bear market has been characterized by BTC’s price breaking below its cost basis. This triggers a final capitulation phase marked by realized losses of around 20%. Related Reading: Analyst Predicts The Ethereum Price Bottom With A Marked Path To $15,000 The analysis also noted that it is only after this phase that the market has been able to rebuild the necessary foundations for a trend reversal, with Bitcoin and Ethereum reaching new highs. Meanwhile, another CryptoQuant analysis mentioned that the Coinbase Premium Index shows limited signs of recovery. The index’s 30-minute simple moving average had briefly crossed above the zero level but failed to maintain the momentum into the new week. CryptoQuant stated that this lack of sustained recovery in the premium, despite the temporary uptick, is considered a potential trigger for the recent downward price action. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Ether, solana and dogecoin are among the altcoins posting 10% or more advances.
The company's stock has lost about two-thirds of its value since peaking last year, nearly in step with bitcoin's record price above $126,000.
Coinbase says Bitcoin’s near-term path may hinge on two price zones: roughly $82,000 on the upside and $60,000 on the downside. In a new X post outlining its BTC “practical playbook,” the exchange argues that combining structural support/resistance bands with options gamma exposure sharpens the trading map for whether BTC is more likely to mean-revert, break out, or accelerate lower. The core framework starts with Coinbase’s previously shared heatmap of “real supply and demand levels,” built by aggregating market structure pivot points and volume into price bands. In that setup, the densest support cluster sits near $60,000, while the first dense resistance band sits around $82,000. Coinbase describes those areas as zones where market interest has already been established and where “significant pools of resting liquidity typically gather.” Why Bitcoin Gamma Changes The Read This week’s addition is gamma exposure (GEX), which Coinbase frames as a way to map how options dealers’ hedging flows may either absorb volatility or amplify it. The firm calls the options market a “hidden liquidity provider” and says GEX helps investors decide whether conditions favor range trades or breakout trades. Related Reading: Bitcoin Nears Death Cross That Preceded Final Bear Market Legs Coinbase explains the mechanism in practical terms: when dealers are long gamma, their hedging tends to lean against price moves; when they are short gamma, hedging can reinforce the move. “In positive gamma regions, the dominant hedging behavior often looks like a shock absorber because if BTC rises, dealers sell spot (or sell futures) to stay hedged. If BTC falls, they buy to rebalance. That ‘sell strength / buy weakness’ pattern reduces realized volatility and increases the odds of consolidation and ‘pinning’ around nearby strike clusters.” It then contrasts that with the negative-gamma regime. “In negative gamma regions, the dominant hedging behavior can flip into a trend amplifier. Rising BTC prices force hedgers to buy more while falling prices force hedgers to sell more. That ‘buy strength / sell weakness’ loop can turn ordinary breaks into fast repricing and liquidation-style cascades.” After layering GEX onto its pivot map, Coinbase’s conclusion is straightforward but consequential. “$82k remains the first gate to unlock further upside, while $60k appears to be the shelf that must hold to prevent accelerated downside,” the post says. It ties that to a “pronounced negative gamma band” in the $60,000–$70,000 region and “meaningful positive gamma pockets” around $85,000 and $90,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin COT Data: Smart Money Goes Net Long With ‘Urgency’ That combination shapes the regime expectations. Coinbase says downside into $60,000 can accelerate because negative gamma may amplify selling pressure, while upside toward $90,000 may be more prone to grinding and pinning as positive gamma hedging dampens momentum. How Coinbase Frames The Setups The playbook’s scenario analysis reflects that asymmetry. Around $82,000, Coinbase treats first-touch rejection as a credible risk in a dense supply zone, especially without a clear macro catalyst. If BTC fails there, it says mean reversion becomes the higher-probability expression and warns breakout chasers can get trapped. By contrast, a clean break above $82,000 is not defined by a brief spike but by “acceptance” — reclaiming the level, holding it, and using it as support. Coinbase argues that would suggest supply has been absorbed and raise continuation odds into higher liquidity bands, while still acknowledging the positive gamma pocket above could increase chop risk. The $60,000 zone is framed even more carefully. Coinbase says it prefers long exposure only after a reclaim signal if BTC flushes into that area, rather than trying to catch the initial move lower, because negative gamma can make the path “violent and prone to overshooting.” If $60,000 fails and BTC cannot reclaim it, Coinbase says the break could mark another “regime change” where downside extends faster than discretionary dip buyers expect. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $65,026. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Hash Ribbon recovery and sub production pricing suggest the worst of the bitcoin drawdown may have passed.
Short interest in MSTR equals 14% of market cap, yet much of the positioning may reflect basis trades rather than outright bets on a continued decline.
Anchorage Digital, the first federally chartered U.S. crypto bank, has added perpetual preferred stock in bitcoin treasury firm Strategy to its balance sheet.
A broad uptick across tokens arrived alongside a softer greenback and a rally in Asian equities, though analysts remain split on whether the Feb. 5 lows will hold.
Bitcoin continues to struggle to reclaim the $65,000 level as persistent selling pressure and weakening sentiment keep the market in a fragile state. Price action has remained subdued in recent weeks, with volatility elevated and risk appetite constrained by tightening liquidity conditions and macro uncertainty. The inability to secure sustained acceptance above this psychological threshold has reinforced caution among traders, leaving Bitcoin in what increasingly resembles a defensive phase rather than an early recovery environment. Related Reading: The Saylor Discount: Why Bitcoin Trading Below Strategy’s Realized Price is a Gift for Late-Cycle Allocators According to top analyst Axel Adler, recent on-chain data support this interpretation. Realized capitalization — which measures the aggregate value of Bitcoin based on the last price each coin moved — has declined for the second consecutive month. At the same time, the 3–6 month holder cohort has expanded significantly as coins acquired near cycle highs mature into that category. This dynamic typically reflects post-peak positioning rather than fresh accumulation. The 30-day Realized Cap Net Position Change currently sits around -2.26%, indicating sustained capital outflows from the network. Realized Cap peaked near $1.127 trillion in late November 2025 and has since contracted to roughly $1.094 trillion, representing about $33 billion in compression. Until this metric returns decisively to positive territory, evidence of renewed accumulation demand remains limited. HODL Waves Highlight Defensive Market Structure Adler notes that the latest HODL Waves data reinforces the view that Bitcoin remains in a defensive phase rather than active accumulation. The chart shows a sharp expansion in the 3–6 month coin-age cohort, which has risen to approximately 25.9% of the circulating supply. This reflects a growing share of coins last moved between August and November 2025 — a period closely aligned with purchases near the market peak. HODL Waves track the distribution of Bitcoin supply based on how long coins have remained dormant. Expansion of older cohorts generally indicates reduced transactional activity. However, in this case, the data suggests not confident accumulation but rather a “costly hold” environment, where many investors are sitting on underwater positions. The 3–6 month cohort has surged from roughly 19% at the start of February, while the 6–12 month group has also grown to about 20.2%. Meanwhile, short-term coins under one month account for only about 9.3% combined, signaling limited fresh demand entering the market. Combined with declining realized capitalization, the data points toward an aging supply without corresponding capital inflows. Until newer buying activity emerges and the 3–6 month cohort migrates into longer-term holding bands without selling pressure, Bitcoin’s broader market structure is likely to remain defensive rather than decisively bullish. Related Reading: The $45 Million Crypto Hammer: Whale Inflow To Binance Threatens To Shatter XRP’s Recovery Bitcoin Momentum Weakens As Price Tests Key Support Zone Bitcoin’s 3-day chart reflects clear structural deterioration as price accelerates lower toward the $63,000 region. After failing to reclaim the $90,000–$95,000 supply zone earlier in the year, BTC formed a distribution range before breaking decisively below its 50-period and 100-period moving averages. That breakdown triggered a sharp leg down, confirming a shift from consolidation to trend continuation on this timeframe. Currently, price trades well beneath the 50 SMA (~$92,000) and the 100 SMA (~$101,500), both of which have rolled over and now act as overhead resistance. The 200 SMA near the low-$90,000 region also remains far above the current price, reinforcing the broader bearish bias. The alignment of these moving averages — with shorter-term averages below longer-term ones — confirms negative momentum and sustained downside pressure. Related Reading: XRP’s Brutal Supply Compression Signals A Repeat Of The 2024 Expansion Volume expanded during the recent selloff, indicating active distribution rather than passive drift. The sharp rejection from the mid-$90,000 area, followed by impulsive downside candles, suggests sellers remain in control. From a structural perspective, the $60,000–$62,000 zone becomes the next critical support region. A sustained break below it could open the path toward deeper retracement levels. To stabilize, Bitcoin would need to reclaim at least the $75,000–$80,000 area and rebuild higher highs — a scenario not yet supported by current momentum. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
An analyst has pointed out how Bitcoin could be approaching a death cross between the 50-day and 200-day SMAs on the 3-day chart. Bitcoin Is Potentially Nearing A Death Cross On The 3-Day Timeframe In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about a death cross on Bitcoin’s 3-day price chart. A “death cross” popularly refers to a bearish signal produced by a crossover between two simple moving averages (SMAs) of an asset. Typically, a death cross involves the longer SMA moving above the shorter one. In the context of the current topic, the SMAs of relevance are the 50-day and 200-day versions. Related Reading: Bitcoin Capitulation Persists As Short-Term Holders Realize $0.48B Daily Losses Below is the chart shared by Martinez that shows the pattern displayed by these two SMAs for the 3-day Bitcoin price. As is visible in the graph, the 50-day SMA of the 3-day Bitcoin price saw a cross under the 200-day SMA in each of the last three cycles. All of these crossovers preceded bearish price action. More specifically, the 2014 crossover led to a drawdown of 52.19% for the asset, the 2018 one to 50.56%, and the 2022 one to 45.91%. Interestingly, these price declines all led to the bottoms of their respective bear markets. “Since 2014, the death cross between the 50 and 200 simple moving averages on the 3-day chart has consistently preceded the final leg down of a Bitcoin $BTC bear market,” noted the analyst. Jumping to the present, BTC has faced a bearish shift in recent months with a notable drawdown in its price. This has resulted in the 50-day SMA witnessing a decline toward the 200-day SMA. As a zoomed-in chart shared by Martinez in another X post shows, there is now not much distance left between the 50-day and 200-day SMAs of the 3-day Bitcoin price. If the two lines continue to follow the current trajectories, the analyst has estimated that a death cross could occur on February 27th. Given the past trend, such a death cross could take Bitcoin into its final leg for the bear market. It only remains to be seen, however, whether the current cycle will actually follow a similar pattern or if it will show divergence. Related Reading: Another $438M In Crypto Longs Gone As Bitcoin, Altcoins Pull Back In some other news, the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has slipped into the loss region recently, as on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted in an X post. In the past, a shift toward loss realization on the Bitcoin network has generally lasted for over six months before a return of liquidity has occurred. BTC Price Bitcoin has erased some of its recent recovery over the past couple of days as its price is now trading around $63,300. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is sitting at a decisive inflection point. After losing key support and pressing into range extremes, the market now faces a clear binary outcome: reclaim the range highs and shift momentum back to the upside, or fail and extend toward new weekly lows. The next move from here will likely set the tone for Bitcoin’s short-term direction. Bitcoin Tests Range Extremes Currently, Bitcoin is navigating a period of high tension as it tests its range extremes, a phase that analyst Lennaert Snyder notes can feel intimidating for many traders. However, these moments of extreme volatility often serve as the foundation for the highest-quality setups. Related Reading: Bitcoin COT Data: Smart Money Goes Net Long With ‘Urgency’ The current strategy remains patient, focusing on a Market Structure Break (MSB) as the primary prerequisite for entering a long position. On the H4 timeframe, the specific level to watch is the $66,590 high. Gaining and holding this level would signal a shift in momentum, providing the initial green light for bulls to step in. While the $66,590 mark is the first hurdle, the true pivot for a structural bullish flip sits at approximately $68,000. This level is of paramount importance because it hosts the Point of Control (POC) for the entire range. Reclaiming this zone would shift the narrative from a defensive to an offensive posture, confirming that buyers have regained control of the value area. If Bitcoin successfully regains the $68,000 level, it opens a clear path to the $71,422 resistance. Beyond that, the ultimate objective for this move would be the massive liquidity cluster sitting at $76,971. Thus, the $68,000 zone is also a critical area for bears as it could become a prime short entry following a confirmed rejection. Conversely, the market must account for the possibility of a bull trap at the lower resistance levels. If Bitcoin sweeps the $66,590 high only to be met with a sharp rejection, it would suggest that the rally was merely a liquidity grab. Such a failure would likely trigger an aggressive short-selling wave, potentially driving the price down to establish new weekly lows. $65,000 Support Lost — Momentum Shifts Lower In a recent update, Ted noted that Bitcoin has now broken below the key $65,000 support zone, shifting short-term momentum back in favor of the bears. Losing this level weakens the immediate structure and opens the door for further downside exploration. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Record Red Month May Be Setting Up A Reversal: Analysts That said, significant bid liquidity is stacked between $60,000 and $63,000, creating a potential demand pocket. However, whether that zone holds may largely depend on broader market conditions, particularly how the stock market behaves in the coming sessions. Given the current setup, a sweep of the $60K lows appears increasingly likely before any meaningful reversal attempt. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Former CoinRoutes CEO Dave Weisberger argued in an X post on February 23 that Bitcoin’s early-2026 hashrate rebound is more than a mining-cycle recovery and may be a lagging signal of a broader price move ahead. His core thesis is that sovereign-linked mining activity is starting to play for Bitcoin the same structural role central bank gold buying played for gold before its breakout. Weisberger frames the comparison through the recent gold cycle, where he says sovereign accumulation preceded price discovery by years. In his telling, the key signal was not ETF demand or retail flows, but central banks steadily adding reserves as geopolitical fragmentation and fiat-risk concerns rose. “The result? A parabolic gold rally that few saw coming in real time,” he wrote. “Gold has surged to record highs well north of $5,000/oz in this cycle, leaving the ‘it’s just inflation’ crowd scrambling. The buying came first. The price discovery followed later.” Related Reading: Another $438M In Crypto Longs Gone As Bitcoin, Altcoins Pull Back Why Bitcoin’s Hashrate Recovery Is Signalling The Next Rally Applying that framework to Bitcoin, Weisberger points to what he describes as a “textbook V-shaped recovery” in network hashrate in early 2026. After a sharp pullback of roughly 15% to 20% from prior peaks, he says computational power rebounded from below 900 EH/s to above 1 ZH/s, accompanied by one of the largest absolute difficulty increases on record, at nearly 15%. For Weisberger, that recovery is not just a post-stress normalization after winter curtailments, regional shutdowns, and post-halving margin compression. He argues it reflects a different class of miner stepping in. “This isn’t random noise. It is the direct footprint of sovereign mining stepping in where private miners hesitated,” he wrote. A central part of the post is Weisberger’s claim that at least 13 nation-states are now mining Bitcoin at a governmental or state-linked level (backed by VanEck research). He cites Bhutan, the UAE, and El Salvador, and also names Russia, Iran, and Ethiopia as countries deploying energy assets into mining. “These are not retail or even corporate miners chasing daily hashprice,” he wrote. “These are governments converting stranded or strategic energy into a portable, verifiable, seizure-resistant reserve asset. They mine for policy reasons: revenue without printing more local currency, network security in which they hold a direct stake, and positioning in a world where financial sovereignty matters.” Related Reading: Bitcoin COT Data: Smart Money Goes Net Long With ‘Urgency’ Weisberger argues sovereign miners operate with different constraints than private miners: longer time horizons, different cost of capital, and less need to sell output into market weakness. In that framework, sovereign mining becomes a mechanism for absorbing newly issued BTC directly into long-term holdings, reducing sell-side pressure while also strengthening network security. Weisberger explicitly describes hashrate recovery as a lagged, not coincident, indicator, because sovereign mining expansion requires hardware procurement, energy contracts, infrastructure buildout, and policy approvals. Those processes move slowly, often during periods when price action appears flat or corrective. He argues that this sequence can change market structure before price reflects it: stronger security, tighter issuance flow, and broader validation of Bitcoin as a reserve asset rather than a purely speculative vehicle. His conclusion is blunt: “The hashrate recovery isn’t just technical resilience. It is a sovereign signal flashing bright. Governments are voting with energy infrastructure and balance sheets.” At press time, BTC traded at $63,209. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
The recent Bitcoin (BTC) price performance may appear subdued, with the leading crypto currently trading below the $65,000 level and sitting around 50% under all-time highs, but a new report from River suggests that adoption trends in 2025 tell a very different story. According to the firm, the network’s growth across institutions, businesses, financial advisors, and even nation-states accelerated sharply over the past year, despite market weakness. Institutional Bitcoin Demand One of the most notable developments has been the scale of institutional accumulation. River reports that institutions acquired approximately 829,000 Bitcoin in 2025 alone. These buyers included corporations, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), investment funds, and government-related entities. Related Reading: History Repeating? XRP Flashes Signal Last Seen Before Explosive 60,000% Rally Investment advisors have also emerged as steady buyers. Registered investment advisors (RIAs), which collectively oversee around $146 trillion in client assets, have been net purchasers of Bitcoin exposure for eight consecutive quarters. Their participation largely began after the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in 2024. Over the past two years, RIAs have invested approximately $1.5 billion per quarter into Bitcoin ETFs, without a single quarter of net selling. Adoption within this group is already widespread: 29 of the top 30 US RIAs hold Bitcoin exposure. However, allocations remain minimal, averaging just 0.008% of assets, leaving considerable room for expansion. Surge In Bank, Corporate And Retail Adoption Traditional banks are also moving closer to the asset. Around 60% of the largest US banks are reportedly developing Bitcoin-related products. Corporate adoption accelerated as well. Public company ownership of Bitcoin increased by 2.5 times in 2025, with businesses collectively ranking as the largest net buyers during the year. Much of this demand came from Bitcoin treasury companies, but River notes that many established corporations have been quietly adding BTC in smaller amounts. The firm expects this type of balance sheet adoption to expand across the S&P 500 in the years ahead. Merchant usage has grown at a rapid pace. In the United States, the number of businesses accepting BTC payments tripled in 2025, while global merchant adoption rose by 74%. River, which serves more than 3,000 businesses across multiple industries, reports that the strongest growth is occurring among small, privately held companies, many of which do not publicly disclose their Bitcoin strategies. Nation-States Expand BTC Holdings Nation-state involvement also increased. Five additional countries became Bitcoin holders in 2025. Among them were Luxembourg and Saudi Arabia, whose sovereign wealth funds acquired exposure, and the Czech Republic. Governments have accumulated Bitcoin through a variety of channels, including state-backed mining operations, direct purchases, ETF exposure, asset seizures, donations, and even hacking-related recoveries. Related Reading: World Liberty Financial Cites ‘Coordinated Attack’ — But Are There Deeper Issues? Looking ahead, River argues that the divergence between price performance and adoption is striking. While the current phase of growth may not immediately translate into dramatic price multiples, it reflects a deeper form of progress: We expect that in the coming years, Bitcoin adoption will not only continue its current trend but meaningfully accelerate. As of this writing, BTC is trading at $64,459, marking losses of 26% and 31% over the past thirty days and year-to-date, respectively. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
A potential final sell-off in Bitcoin is back in focus after market analyst Aaron Dishner warned that the asset appears structurally close to capitulation. Based on cycle timing, historical drawdowns, and converging technical signals, he argues the market may be nearing its last downside move before a longer-term bottom forms. He urges investors to brace for volatility as this “bottom year” unfolds. Bitcoin’s Past Fractal Points To One More Flush Dishner’s framework centers on a structural comparison to May 2022. On the weekly BTC/USDT chart, he outlines a sequence mirroring prior bear market endings: a major high, a liquidation-driven drop, a failed relief rally forming a bear flag, and a breakdown into new lows. After that breakdown, the price typically moves sideways before a final aggressive sell-off. Related Reading: AI Explains What’s Driving The Ethereum Price Volatility, Can It Rise Above $3,000 Again? He projects a downside target around $35,000–$40,000, aligning with historical drawdowns of 70% to 75% from all-time highs. Previous cycles support this range: the 2013–2015 decline lasted about 59 weeks with an 87% drawdown; the 2017–2018 cycle spanned roughly a year with an 84% decline; and the 2021–2022 bear phase retraced around 77% over 54 weeks. Based on this pattern, he expects the current cycle to extend at least 52 weeks from its peak, placing a potential bottom near October 2026. Moreover, weekly RSI has reached deeply oversold territory, levels historically associated with capitulation events such as late 2018 and the COVID crash. While not at the most extreme historical lows, RSI is within the zone that previously preceded large downside wicks and sharp sell-offs. Volume metrics also show deterioration. On-balance volume across major exchanges reflects persistent distribution, resembling conditions seen before prior cycle lows. The broader takeaway is that price structure, momentum, and volume are converging toward what Dishner describes as a final flush. Stablecoin Dominance And S&P Risk Add Pressure Dishner also highlights combined stablecoin dominance, specifically USDT and USDC. Historically, sharp increases in stablecoin dominance have coincided with heavy Bitcoin sell-offs. He notes dominance is approaching resistance near 13%, and previous breakout clusters preceded steep downside moves in BTC. RSI behavior on the dominance chart mirrors pre-capitulation setups from 2022. In that cycle, a spike in dominance aligned with Bitcoin’s June decline, followed by weeks of choppy consolidation before recovery attempts. Related Reading: Dogecoin’s Third Time Breakout Could Send Price On 2,000% Rally To $2 Macro risk compounds the outlook. Dishner points to bearish divergence signals on the S&P 500, referencing clusters of downside momentum warnings seen near prior equity tops. An 8% pullback is viewed as plausible, with a deeper 20%–25% correction representing a high-impact scenario. In his assessment, a significant equity drawdown would transmit stress into digital assets, intensifying margin pressure and accelerating Bitcoin’s decline. Even after capitulation, history suggests the market may not immediately reverse. Prior cycles required 19 to 40 weeks of sideways or unstable price action before sustained recovery began. If the pattern holds, Bitcoin may be entering its final sell-off phase, potentially bottoming around October. Until then, Dishner maintains conditions remain structurally bearish, with elevated risk across crypto and traditional markets. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Sellers are taking a breather as bitcoin's Fear & Greed Index plunged to levels never seen before.
Back remains optimistic despite the brutal price action in bitcoin and BTC treasury companies.