Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin’s October flush to $80,000 marked the end of a liquidity-driven reset, not the start of a new bear market – and that the structural forces that pushed BTC down are now reversing. $80,000 Was The Bottom As Dollar Liquidity Turns In a Milk Road Show episode recorded November 26 and released November 27, the BitMEX co-founder argued that the much-celebrated US spot ETF “institutional bid” was largely a leveraged basis trade that has now run its course at the same time as US dollar liquidity appears to have bottomed. “And so that’s why I believe that the $80,000 dip on Bitcoin recently is the bottom,” Hayes said. “And now we’re going to have a supportive liquidity situation, at least marginally on the dollar, and we’re bottom here and can go higher.” Hayes is still openly targeting a blow-off move into the $200,000–$250,000 range by year-end, repeating the call from his recent “Snow Forecast” essay. “I’m going to stick with it,” he said. “If I’m wrong it doesn’t matter. I’m long, right? I’m still happy either way. It’s either $200k–$250k or not.” Related Reading: Bitcoin’s New ‘Line In The Sand’ May Be $82,000, Not $56,000: Analyst At the time of recording, the host noted Bitcoin was “back above $90K.” Hayes said ETF flow charts that dominated crypto social media in the spring and summer badly misled retail. He pointed to the largest holders of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) – Brevan Howard, Goldman Sachs, Millennium, Avenue, Jane Street – as evidence that the dominant players were not long-only allocators. “These entities are not places where they’re just going to go long Bitcoin,” he said. Instead, they were running a standard basis trade: buying IBIT, pledging it as collateral and shorting CME futures. “They were making, let’s call it 7 to 10% per annum on that trade. They fund Fed funds at four-ish percent and they lever it up.” When the futures basis collapsed following the October 10 liquidation cascade, that trade had to be unwound by selling the ETF and covering futures shorts, flipping net ETF flows from strong inflows to outflows. Retail investors misread that as “institutions turning bearish.” “Retail thinks, ‘Oh no, institutions loved Bitcoin in the summer and now they hate it in the fall, therefore I need to get rid of my exposure as well,’ not understanding what was driving those flows in the first place,” Hayes said. He paired this with a second temporary pillar: listed digital asset treasury (DAT) companies that issue stock or debt to buy Bitcoin. Once those vehicles traded at net asset value or a discount, new issuance became uneconomic and in some cases incentivized selling BTC to buy back shares, removing another marginal buyer. Macro Conditions Are The Key Catalyst Against that micro backdrop, Hayes situates a much larger macro shift. He tracks a proprietary US dollar liquidity index built from Fed balance sheet series and commercial bank data. In his telling, roughly a trillion dollars of liquidity was drained from dollar money markets from July onward due to Treasury General Account (TGA) refilling and Federal Reserve quantitative tightening. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is Now Tied To A 2-Year Cycle, Warns Investment Firm CIO In 2023, then-Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen could offset that drain by issuing huge amounts of high-yielding T-bills that pulled about $2.5 trillion out of the Fed’s reverse repo facility back into the system. In 2025, he argues, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had no such reservoir to tap. Now, Hayes says, both the TGA rebuild and QT have effectively run their course. The TGA has been restored to its target zone, and the Fed has halted balance sheet runoff. “We have essentially bottomed on the liquidity chart and the direction in the future is higher,” he said, adding that markets are still waiting to see how the Trump administration actually delivers on promises of massive credit creation via industrial policy, bank lending and a more dovish Fed. He expects the next leg of liquidity to come more from commercial banks than the central bank, citing early signs of rising bank lending and public commitments from institutions like JPMorgan to finance large industrial programs. Hayes was equally direct on the October 10 wipeout, calling it a harsh lesson for underprepared leveraged traders rather than a coordinated hunt. “People think that I’m going to get off of work and trade leveraged crypto for a few hours and I’m going to somehow make money. No, you’re going to get liquidated,” he said. “If you are a proper trader, you should not get liquidated. Period.” On positioning, Hayes said he used the post-crash environment to buy what he considers fundamentally strong altcoins like Pendle, Ethena and EtherFi at levels last seen months earlier. He expects those to outperform ETH in the short term but still backs the long-term “institutional DeFi” narrative that could take Ethereum to “the $10,000 to $20,000 price by the end of the cycle.” For now, his core thesis is simple: the ETF basis trade is largely gone, the liquidity drain is over, leverage has been flushed – and the macro tide, in his view, is turning back in Bitcoin’s favour. At press time, BTC traded at $91,004. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Strategic Income Opportunities Portfolio expands its allocation to the iShares Bitcoin Trust amid rising institutional demand.
Bitcoin has not grown at the rapid rate expected so far in the cycle, and some have blamed this on the fact that the Federal Reserve has been practicing quantitative tightening. This refers to a period when the central bank is reducing its money supply in a bid to reel in excess liquidity. As a result, buying power seems to have fallen as there isn’t enough liquidity flowing into risk assets such as Bitcoin. However, this could all be changing very soon as the Fed begins to change its stance. Quantitative Easing Could Bring About More Liquidity After a long stretch of quantitative tightening, the Fed’s recent comments suggest that there is a move toward quantitative easing. This is expected to happen sometime in December, and it could trigger a massive shift as the market looks to close another year. Quantitative easing, as the name suggests, is the opposite of quantitative tightening, and the former sees the Fed pump liquidity into the market. This rush in liquidity could lead to investors taking more risks, and this, in turn, would be good for assets like Bitcoin as investors move into the crypto market for the long term. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Breaks Below 50-MA For The First Time This Cycle, Why A Crash To $38,000 Could Be Coming The announcement for a move to quantitative easing is expected to come on December 1, and naturally, there have been debates on its impact on the Bitcoin price. Crypto analyst and investor Ted Pillows shared a chart showing that the last time the Fed ended quantitative tightening in 2019, the Bitcoin price had suffered a notable crash. The post suggests that this could be the case as the Fed makes its move in less than two weeks. However, this point has been countered by another crypto analyst, who pointed out the differences between what happened in 2019 and what is going on in 2025. Why This Time Could Be Different For Bitcoin In a response to Pillows, pseudonymous crypto analyst Sykodelic outlined that one of the very first reasons the Bitcoin price won’t crash with the announcement of quantitative easing is the fact that the Fed overdid it in 2019. According to the post, the Fed overdid quantitative tightening, which led to the 2019 repo crisis. Related Reading: Ethereum Price To Recover Or Crash? The Real ‘Leverage Point’ Investors Should Know About However, this time around, while the reserves are low, they haven’t reached danger territory. Also, with a $2 trillion fiscal deficit, the analyst explains that the US will have no choice but to stimulate the economy with liquidity, or else it risks going bankrupt. Since the Bitcoin price already had a major drop, reaching record-breaking MACD levels, the analyst believes the chances of a drop are low. “If you are betting on a year long bear market you are basically betting that the USA will let itself go broke,” the analyst said. “There is simply no room left for the FED to turn.” Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Puell Multiple has gone through a decline recently, a sign that miner revenue has gone down relative to its baseline. Bitcoin Puell Multiple Has Dropped To 0.67 In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about the latest trend in the Bitcoin Puell Multiple. The “Puell Multiple” refers to a popular on-chain indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the daily BTC mining revenue (in USD) and 365-day moving average (MA) of the same. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Be At Risk Of A Deeper Bear If This Ratio Compresses, Says Glassnode Miners earn their income through two sources: block subsidy and transaction fees. In the context of the metric, however, only the former part of their revenue is relevant. Block subsidy is a fixed BTC-denominated reward that miners receive when they add the next block to the chain. Usually, it makes up for the dominant and stable part of miner income. When the value of the Puell Multiple is greater than 1, it means that the network validators are earning a higher revenue from block subsidy than the average for the past year. On the other hand, the metric being under the mark implies miners are making less than usual. Now, here is the chart shared by Martinez that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Puell Multiple over the past decade: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Puell Multiple has witnessed a rapid decline recently that has taken its value below the 1 level. This drop in the metric is a result of the bearish price action that the cryptocurrency has faced. The block subsidy is fixed in BTC value and is more-or-less also fixed in rate of time, so the daily BTC income from it is about constant for miners. The USD value of the reward, however, is dependent on the asset’s spot price, which is indeed variable. The earlier bull run resulted in the Puell Multiple rising above the 1 mark as miner revenue from block subsidy surged. Similarly, the market downturn has led to a decline in the USD miner income. Today, the metric’s value is 0.67, meaning that the chain validators are making just 67% of the average revenue from the last 365 days. Historically, miners being under a high amount of pressure has made bottoms more probable for Bitcoin. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s New ‘Line In The Sand’ May Be $82,000, Not $56,000: Analyst As the analyst has highlighted in the chart, the major bottoms since 2015 have generally formed when the Puell Multiple has dipped below 0.50. If the current cycle is also going to follow a similar pattern, then miner pain may not be enough for a bottom yet. BTC Price The latest rebound in the Bitcoin price has sustained for now as its price is still trading around $91,600. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
As the Bitcoin price exhibits signs of recovery, climbing back above $90,000, the cryptocurrency community finds itself sharply divided. Some analysts believe this movement is merely a relief rally preceding another downturn, while others maintain that a bull market is still in play despite a recent 30% correction. Current Data Suggests No Cycle Top Market analyst OxChain went on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), focusing on on-chain data to shed light on the current market dynamics and what investors might expect in the near future. He argues that the recent downturn does not exhibit characteristics typical of a cycle top. In October, Bitcoin reached the mid-$120,000 range before experiencing a subsequent decline of approximately 35%. Notably, this drop transpired without the hype, fervor, or speculation that usually accompany a market peak. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Climbs Back To $91,000: Is The Decline Over? Key Levels To Watch The loss of nearly $1 trillion in market value underscores the underlying challenges. As Ethereum (ETH) and mid-cap cryptocurrencies simultaneously declined, there wasn’t an evident frenzy of speculation driving the downturn. Instead, OxChain attributes the decline primarily to a drop in demand. A slowdown in stablecoin creation and diminished inflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have led to reduced buying activity. Derivatives traders have also stepped back, with funding conditions softening and open interest unwinding. With market expectations recently leaning toward a potential interest rate cut in December, many buyers have opted to remain on the sidelines, preferring not to chase riskier assets. This hesitancy has led to a “fragile liquidity environment,” the analyst asserted. OxChain notes that even medium-sized orders can cause price changes of several percentage points due to the scarcity of resting bids. An examination of order book snapshots reveals that market depth has been waning during active trading periods, leading to a scenario where the market appears to be “running on fumes.” Bitcoin Market Struggles Without Conviction The situation in the derivatives market further supports this cautious outlook. Volatility has risen, with traders now leaning toward protective measures rather than building long positions. Interestingly, interest in futures contracts has decreased even amid small relief rallies, indicating that many traders are hesitant to take on larger positions. OxChain highlights a crucial trend: without leveraged conviction, market trends often struggle to gain momentum. On-chain data shows a more cautious sentiment among investors rather than outright fear. While the coin days destroyed (CDD) metric has risen due to older coins moving, much of the long-held Bitcoin remains with patient holders who are not in a rush to sell. Related Reading: Metaplanet In Jeopardy: Bitcoin Needs To Surpass $108,000 By December 18 To Prevent New Crisis Furthermore, the adjusted spent output profit ratio (aSOPR), hovering near 1, signals that there is neither extensive profit-taking nor widespread panic selling taking place. The analyst identified that the majority of selling activity has come from mid-term holders, contributing to a muted and indecisive market flow. Additionally, institutional investors remained relatively inactive throughout November. Significant outflows were reported in both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which further contributed to the current state of the market. OxChain concluded his analysis by saying: The broader bullish narrative isn’t gone, but the near-term setup is fragile. Until a strong catalyst appears, expect a wandering market that drifts, chops, and tests lower levels. When writing, the leading cryptocurrency was trading just above the $91,550 level, recording a 4% price recovery in the 24-hour time frame. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Implied volatility indices tied to bitcoin and the S&P 500 have erased the recent spike, offering bullish price signals.
Bitcoin is showing new signs of strength after its sharp decline, with buyers stepping back in and momentum shifting upward. With price reclaiming key support levels, the path toward the major $98,000 imbalance zone is now back on the table, but bulls still need to prove this rebound has real conviction. FVG Filled, Bearish OB Tagged — What Comes After The Perfect Hit? Crypto analyst Crypto Patel, in a recent market update, noted that Bitcoin has now completed a key technical move by filling the Fair Value Gap (FVG) and tapping directly into the Bearish Order Block exactly as previously projected. He emphasized that traders who avoided shorting the $81,000–$85,000 region and instead positioned for the upside likely captured a clean and predictable long setup. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s New ‘Line In The Sand’ May Be $82,000, Not $56,000: Analyst With that phase now complete, the focus shifts to Bitcoin’s next major target. Patel highlights the $96,800–$98,000 FVG as the upcoming high-timeframe imbalance zone. From a broader perspective, Patel still expects Bitcoin to make a move toward the $98,000 zone before any significant corrective leg unfolds. This aligns with his macro outlook, which continues to favor a final upward sweep into that region before momentum weakens again. However, he also outlines a clear invalidation point for the bearish bias. A sustained high-timeframe close above $107,550 would negate the existing bearish market structure entirely. Such a breakout would signal the start of a new bullish phase for Bitcoin, potentially setting the stage for a fresh all-time-high trend. Promising Bounce As BTC Defends the $90,000 Support Zone According to The Boss, Bitcoin’s latest price action is showing early signs of strength. After the sharp decline, BTC reacted firmly at the local support and managed to push back above the $90,000 level, indicating that buyers are stepping in with renewed confidence. The chart now reflects a stable support zone that has held up against downward pressure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bear Market Confirmed? Expert Predicts Price Target Of $40,000 By Late 2026 Part of this rebound appears to be driven by improving macro sentiment. Softer expectations around Federal Reserve tightening, a rise in overall risk appetite, and a shift back toward risk-on assets are all contributing to Bitcoin’s recovery attempt. From a technical perspective, The Boss notes that Bitcoin must continue to hold above the $90,000–$91,000 range to form a meaningful upward wave from this base. However, caution is still warranted. Without clear confirmation from momentum indicators and sustained trading volume, the current move has the potential to be limited. The possibility of a dead-cat bounce remains on the table, especially following such an aggressive sell-off. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has revealed in a report how long-term Bitcoin liquidity has witnessed a sharp decline alongside the market downturn. Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Liquidity Ratio Has Plunged Recently In its latest weekly report, Glassnode has talked about how liquidity in the Bitcoin market has changed following the recent downturn. Glassnode has gauged the “liquidity” using the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio, an on-chain metric that measures the ratio between the profit and loss that BTC investors are realizing through their transactions. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s New ‘Line In The Sand’ May Be $82,000, Not $56,000: Analyst Current demand momentum can be tracked using a version of this indicator that specifically tracks the profitability of the short-term holders (STHs), investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. As the below chart shows, the STH Realized Profit/Loss Ratio was at relatively high levels earlier, but since early October, its value has plummeted. With a value of just 0.07, the indicator is now sitting deep inside the loss region, a sign that the recent Bitcoin buyers have overwhelmingly been capitulating at a loss. “Such overwhelming loss dominance confirms that liquidity has evaporated, especially after the heavy demand absorption seen in Q2–Q3 2025 as long-term holders increased their spending,” explained the analytics firm. The metric fell to similar lows back in Q1 2022, but so far, market weakness hasn’t been as prolonged. The report noted that if the ratio continues to be depressed, market conditions could mirror those from back then. While short-term demand momentum has collapsed, the same hasn’t been true for long-term liquidity, at least not yet. Long-term momentum can be measured using the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio of the long-term holders (LTHs), representing the more resolute section of the market (holding time greater than 155 days). From the above chart, it’s visible that the 7-day exponential moving average (EMA) of the Bitcoin LTH Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has witnessed a sharp decline as BTC has crashed. Despite the drop, however, the metric’s value is still 408, implying LTHs are realizing, on average, a profit that’s 408 times the loss. This means that the long-term liquidity is still healthy compared to Q1 2022, or even the major bottom formations from the current cycle. Glassnode warned, however, “if liquidity continues to fade and this ratio compresses toward 10x or lower, the probability of transitioning into a deeper bear market becomes difficult to ignore.” Related Reading: XRP Rebounds From Channel Bottom, Analyst Says $2.60 Could Be Next It now remains to be seen how the LTH Realized Profit/Loss will change for Bitcoin in the near future, and if liquidity will see a further squeeze. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $90,600, down 1.3% over the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
As the market matures and the broader economic landscape shifts, Bitcoin has once again found itself at a thrilling crossroads, with the entire crypto market watching closely as momentum builds on both sides of the chart. This moment of market volatility is a profound inflection point, where the interplay of rising institutional adoption and changing global macroeconomic conditions is converging. Historical Breakout Zones Align With Price Structure Bitcoin is currently sitting at a thrilling crossroads. In an X post, an analyst known as CryptoCrewU has stated that BTC is witnessing the strongest bearish divergence in years, paired with a rare 2-week close below the 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) of this bull run. Related Reading: Bitcoin Retail Flees, But Sharks & Whales Quietly Growing: Data Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently dipping into levels reminiscent of past pivotal moments in 2015, 2018, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the 2022 bottoms. Meanwhile, the Stoch RSI has yet to cross upwards, hinting at the full extent of the potential move ahead. While fear is at its peak in the market right now, history shows that buying during these market lows has consistently led to significant profits over the past 5 years. “Let data guide you, not emotions,” CryptoCrewU noted. Trader_XO highlighted that since 2015, one pattern has remained remarkably consistent in Bitcoin’s cycle. Historically, whenever breaks below the 50-week Moving Average (MA), it has often signaled a deeper move toward the 200-week MA, or even the 300-week MA. Meanwhile, BTC tends to treat the 200-week MA as a major cycle support area. The price has only dipped below the 300-week MA once in history, and anything trading below the 200-week MA has been relatively short-lived, aligning with the best part of the cycle lows. According to Trader_XO, if the price were to revisit those lower moving average levels, and the broader market context aligns, that area would be viewed as a high-probability buying opportunity, unless this time the move is different. Market Structure Shows Early Signs Of Strength Returning Bitcoin is finally showing signs of strength again. A Full-time crypto teacher, Sykodelic, has pointed out that for the first time since the drop from $116,000, the price has broken above its previous low-time-frame (LTF) range, with a strong push above the 50 SMA. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Powers Over $90K as Buyers Suddenly Regain Control of the Trend Since the $116,000 rejection, every time BTC attempts to move into an upper range, it gets rejected and makes new lows. This time, BTC has finally pushed higher. Currently, this is simply an LTF action, but these subtle shifts are exactly what to watch out for when it comes to understanding the nature of trend reversals. A daily close above $87,000 will confirm the breakout of the trend. Sykodelic concluded that moving higher after a drop like that is intricate, and it can take time. Therefore, observe the signs and move accordingly to see how the daily close goes. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz says the October 10th crash in crypto was far more than a routine shakeout, claiming that roughly a third of market makers in parts of the ecosystem were effectively wiped out. “We had a flash crash and it did a lot of damage to the fabric of the market,” Novogratz told Anthony Scaramucci on the first-ever episode of “All Things Markets,” recorded November 26. “Even on Hyperliquid, the market makers, you know, 30 percent of them went out of business. Got zeroed.” Scaramucci framed the last 20 trading days as another brutal reminder of crypto’s structural volatility. “I know I have a trap door on my portfolio,” he said. “Once in a while I’ll be walking across the living room feeling beautiful about myself. And then, boom, a trap door opens and I have fallen into the basement of the house.” Related Reading: Will Crypto Explode If Kevin Hassett Takes Over The Fed In 2026? According to Novogratz, this particular trap door opened at Binance. “It started really by, you know, at Binance, they had an oracle which set price misfunction,” he said. That error hit a synthetic stablecoin and “created a cascade where people were getting stopped out because there was the wrong price.” The dislocation then bled into levered perpetual markets “like Hyperliquid, like Uniswap,” where “as prices went down, people started getting liquidated.” He argued that the way crypto participants use leverage turned a technical glitch into a systemic event. “What people don’t understand about crypto is that the crypto investor doesn’t play for 10, 11, 12 percent returns,” he said. “Crypto investor call themselves degens with pride. They want to turn one into 15. And so they trade a very volatile asset with a lot of leverage.” Perpetual futures make that leverage particularly dangerous for liquidity providers. “Perpetual futures are not normal futures,” Novogratz said, crediting “the genius that Arthur Hayes and his group of people” for a design where “as longs get liquidated, they’re paired off against shorts.” In a fast collapse, “you could be short and you lose your short position. Well, if you’re long on another exchange against that short position, you’re shit out of luck. And that happened to a lot of market makers.” Will The Crypto Market Recover? The result, he said, was a sharp loss of liquidity and retail capital. “We lost a lot of liquidity in the market. We lost a lot of retail punters who lost their stack,” he noted, adding that after such a wipeout “it takes a while for Humpty Dumpty to get put back together again.” Novogratz said he initially expected higher levels to hold. “I actually, to be fair, thought we were going to hold at higher levels at $90,000,” he admitted. “And we went all the way to $80,000. $80,000 was a maximum pain point… Got to $1.80 on XRP. We got to $125 on Solana. Real pain points.” He links the subsequent rebound to macro tailwinds, not healed sentiment. “Now we bounce up. We bounce because of the Fed. But we’re not out of the woods,” he said. “I do think Bitcoin will climb back towards $100,000 by the end of the year, but there’ll be sellers waiting there. We’ve done some medium-term damage to the psychology of the market.” Related Reading: Crypto Has Entered Late-Cycle Territory, Says Global Liquidity Veteran On the spot side, he highlighted massive profit-taking by early holders against ETF-driven inflows. “We had one $9 billion seller,” he said. “That’s one-third of all of IBIT’s flows of the year.” As US wealth channels move “from a zero weighting to a 3 to 4 percent weighting” in Bitcoin, that “was met with OG sellers.” “In the long run, that’s healthy,” he said. “In the short run, that’s painful.” Novogratz also argued that crypto is being repriced as a real business ecosystem rather than a pure story. “It’s a transition from just being a story — ‘we’re the most important industry… we’re going to decentralize the world’ — to ‘show me what crypto actually does,’” he said. “Some businesses are making money. Some businesses aren’t. There are some token ecosystems that make common sense to an investor and there’s some that all feel like they’re just an association.” Overlaying it all is a macro backdrop he views as increasingly supportive. He called the Fed’s recent signals and plans to ease bank cash requirements in repo “a monstrous liquidity boom that’s coming,” adding that “they’re going to bring rates down to 2 percent in the next 16 months” and that inflation will “creep higher,” implying negative real rates. For crypto, the message is double-edged: structurally de-levered, with fewer market makers and wounded sentiment, but still tied to a global liquidity cycle that Novogratz believes is turning in its favor — once Humpty Dumpty gets put back together again. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $91,115. Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin has pushed back above the $90,000 level after several days of intense selling pressure, bringing a brief moment of relief to a market overwhelmed by fear and uncertainty. Despite the rebound, bulls remain under pressure as speculation of an incoming bear market continues to grow. Many investors are still digesting the sharp correction from October’s all-time high, and confidence has yet to fully return. Related Reading: Major Bitcoin LTH Sell-Off Signals Cycle Exhaustion as Supply Drops to 13.6M BTC According to top analyst Darkfost, one of the key indicators reinforcing this cautious environment is the Coinbase Premium Index, which remains negative. This metric compares Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase — the preferred exchange for US institutions and professional investors — with Binance, which is widely used by retail traders. When the index is negative, as it is now, it signals that institutional players and US whales are selling more aggressively than retail participants. Darkfost notes that part of this ongoing sell-side pressure is tied to continuous spot ETF outflows, which have weighed heavily on sentiment. Although the recent bounce above $90K shows a temporary shift in momentum, Bitcoin must demonstrate strong follow-through to prevent the market from slipping deeper into a bearish phase. Institutional Selling Pressure Begins to Ease Darkfost explains that since the peak in panic selling on November 21, institutional and US-based selling pressure has noticeably cooled off. During that period, the Coinbase Premium Index showed a sharp dive into negative territory, signaling that professional actors were offloading Bitcoin far more aggressively than retail participants. This imbalance amplified the market’s decline, helping push BTC toward its recent lows. However, over the past several days, the intensity of this selling has started to fade. While the Coinbase Premium Index remains negative — meaning institutions are still net sellers — the depth of that negativity has significantly softened. Darkfost notes that although the metric has not yet flipped into positive territory, the trend is improving. If this continues, it could give the market some much-needed breathing room and potentially stabilize price action. Still, analysts remain cautious. The next few sessions will be critical, as Bitcoin needs to demonstrate that this easing in sell pressure can translate into sustained demand. A decisive move — either reclaiming higher levels or breaking down again — appears imminent. As institutional activity continues to shift, the market may soon reveal whether this was only a temporary relief bounce or the start of a larger recovery. Related Reading: Ethereum ICO Whale Sells 20,000 ETH ($58M), Raising Questions Over Market Timing Bitcoin Attempts Recovery But Faces Key Resistance Levels Bitcoin is showing its first meaningful recovery attempt after the steep decline that dragged price from the $126,000 all-time high down to the $80,000 zone. On the 3-day chart, BTC has bounced sharply from the 200-day moving average (red line), a level that historically acts as a major dynamic support during deep corrections. This rebound pushed price back toward the $91,000 area, but momentum remains fragile. The chart shows BTC trading below both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, which have now turned downward—an indication of short-term trend weakness. Until the price reclaims these moving averages, particularly the 100-day near $103,000, the broader structure remains vulnerable to further downside. Related Reading: XRP OI Collapses to Lowest Level Since Nov 2024: Binance Data Shows Liquidity Is Fading Volume during the sell-off was substantially higher than during the bounce, suggesting that sellers were more aggressive than buyers. This imbalance highlights that the recent uptick may be more of a reactionary relief move than a confirmed reversal. Still, the rejection wicks below $85,000 show clear buyer interest at lower levels. If BTC can maintain this higher low structure and continue closing above the 200-day MA, bullish momentum could gradually rebuild. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
A historically reliable bottom signal appears after bitcoin’s 35% correction.
Large holders return to buying after months of distribution, signalling renewed confidence at key support levels.
The Bitcoin price appears to be entering a new recovery phase, as the leading cryptocurrency recaptured the $91,000 level after falling by more than 30% from all-time highs last Friday, tumbling to an 8-month low of $80,000. Critical Bitcoin Price Range Technical analyst Daan Crypto Trades highlighted on social media site X (formerly Twitter) on Wednesday that the critical region for investors to monitor right now is between the $89,000 and $91,000 range. He observed that this price level acted as support in late 2024 and early 2025 before becoming a point of resistance during President Donald Trump’s recent tariff negotiations with the world’s top economies, including China. Related Reading: Has The Bitcoin Price Hit Its Bottom? Key On-Chain Data Signals Potential Rebound Ahead After breaking out of this zone almost exactly one year ago, the Bitcoin price reached new highs of $109,000 in January, which held until a new uptrend in May of this year resulted in BTC reaching $112,000. Daan emphasizes that a strong consolidation above these levels could pave the way for a rally toward the $106,000 to $108,000 range. Conversely, if Bitcoin falls back below these levels, it could revisit last week’s low of $80,000, which he identifies as the nearest support. Bullish Sentiments Amid Caution Another analyst, BitcoinVector, echoed Daan’s bullish sentiment but cautioned that the market remains in a high-risk environment and that the current momentum has yet to strengthen significantly. According to BitcoinVector, steady momentum is required for Bitcoin to break out of the compression pattern that has formed since its all-time high. He laid out the bullish path: first, the Bitcoin price must close within the $89,000 to $90,000 zone, followed by consolidation above this area, and finally, a breakout through the $93,500 to $95,000 compression band. For this recovery to gain traction, BitcoinVector stressed the importance of a “Risk-Off Signal,” indicating that buyers must begin to overpower sellers while generating momentum. Without such momentum, each upward movement would merely be a tactical reaction rather than indicative of a structural recovery. Prolonged Bear Market Ahead? Market analyst Skew provided additional insights, noting that the four-hour chart for Bitcoin appears more constructive for bulls. He pointed to several indicators suggesting upward momentum, including the price being above the four-hour 50 EMA, the RSI remaining above 50, and the Stochastic RSI trending higher. Skew identifies the $88,000 mark as a crucial “line in the sand,” arguing that a drop below this level would signal weakness and a failed attempt to gain momentum. Related Reading: Tether Faces Downgrade By S&P Global Amid Concerns Over Disclosure And Assets Holdings Despite the cautious optimism from some analysts, others, like Jacob King, offer a starkly different perspective. He argues that given the Bitcoin price decline from its all-time high in October, it has never experienced such a fall followed by a sustained bull market. According to King, Bitcoin is now in a bear market that may persist for years, poised to affect the fortunes of countless investors, particularly those heavily leveraged. As of this writing, the Bitcoin price stands at $91,390, marking a 4% recovery within the last 24 hours. This places the cryptocurrency 27% below its all-time high. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
An analyst has explained how Bitcoin’s bottom in the current cycle may not follow the same pattern as historical bear markets. Bitcoin Could Bottom Around True Mean Price Instead This Time In a new post on X, Checkonchain co-founder Alec Dejanovic has talked about a couple of pricing models related to Bitcoin. The first of these is the “Realized Price,” keeping track of the cost basis of the average investor on the BTC network. Related Reading: XRP Rebounds From Channel Bottom, Analyst Says $2.60 Could Be Next When the BTC spot price is trading above this level, it means that the network as a whole is in a state of net unrealized profit. On the other hand, the asset being under the metric suggests that the average token is being held at some loss. This indicator has displayed an interesting relationship with the cryptocurrency in the past. “Historical Bitcoin bears usually bottom around the Realised Price level,” explained Dejanovic. Below is the chart shared by the analyst that shows this effect in action. As is visible in the graph, the 2015, 2018, and 2022 bear markets all found their bottoms when the Bitcoin spot price plunged under the Realized Price. Even the COVID crash in 2020 bottomed out below the indicator. The explanation behind this pattern could lie in the fact that below this line, the majority of the network can be considered underwater, so there wouldn’t be many profit-takers left. In these conditions, resolute entities take coins off investors capitulating at a loss and selling pressure slowly reaches exhaustion, allowing BTC to regain its footing. Today, the Realized Price is situated at $56,000. Considering the past pattern, perhaps this cycle’s bear market would also bottom out around or below this level. Dejanovic thinks things can go differently this time, however, saying, “with ETF flows remaining resilient and no FTX-style fraud in sight, that target feels excessive.” If not Realized Price, then where else could Bitcoin find its bottom? The answer may be the second price model listed in the chart: the True Mean Price. This metric functions similarly to the Realized Price, except for the fact that it represents the cost basis of just the active market participants, not the entire network. A chunk of the Bitcoin supply has become lost due to associated wallets no longer being accessible. As BTC is growing older, this supply is only increasing in size, making the Realized Price a somewhat inaccurate representation of the real network situation. Related Reading: Capriole Founder Not Bearish On Bitcoin Despite Headwinds—Here’s Why By focusing on only the active part of the supply, the True Mean Price sidesteps this issue. Its value is currently $82,000, which is around where BTC found its recent low. “This could be the new line in the sand we are hammering out,” noted the analyst. BTC Price Bitcoin has shown a sharp jump during the past day that has taken its price back above $90,000. Featured image from Dall-E, checkonchain.com, chart from TradingView.com
Metaplanet, often dubbed Japan’s MicroStrategy for its adoption of Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin investment strategy, is nearing a critical juncture as Bitcoin (BTC) retraces below 30% of its all-time highs in under a month. Metaplanet Bitcoin Holdings Plummet As of November 26, Metaplanet ranks as the fourth largest public Bitcoin treasury company, holding just over 30,000 BTC valued at approximately $2.7 billion, with an average acquisition cost of around $108,000 per coin. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $87,700, placing the firm at a nearly 17% loss on its investments. The company finds itself about $640 million underwater, compounded by a steep drop in its stock price, which has plummeted 81% from June highs of ¥1,935 to its current valuation of ¥366 per share on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Related Reading: Has The Bitcoin Price Hit Its Bottom? Key On-Chain Data Signals Potential Rebound Ahead Recently, Metaplanet borrowed an additional $130 million to bolster its Bitcoin holdings, a decision disclosed in a filing on November 21 under a previously established $500 million credit facility announced in late October. This loan is structured with a floating interest rate that renews daily, allowing for repayment at any point. Importantly, the loan is fully secured by the company’s Bitcoin reserves. However, market expert Shanaka Anslem has raised concerns on social media platform X (formerly Twitter) about the implications of these maneuvers for Metaplanet’s short-term stability. Key Dates Approach Anslem highlighted two pivotal dates that the market should closely monitor: December 18, when the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will decide on interest rates, and December 22, when Metaplanet shareholders will vote on a proposed $135 million fundraising initiative. The outcomes of these events are intertwined. The expert asserts that if the Bank of Japan opts for tighter monetary policy, resulting in a strengthened yen, Bitcoin prices may decline, potentially collapsing Metaplanet’s stock premium and jeopardizing the fundraising vote. Conversely, should the central bank maintain its loose policies, leading to a weakened yen but stable Bitcoin prices, the vote may pass, allowing the company to survive. Related Reading: Monad (MON) Price Skyrockets 80%, Emerges As Best Performer Among Top 100 Cryptos This situation holds significance beyond Metaplanet itself. Japan currently lacks a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), making Metaplanet the sole avenue for Japanese investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin via the stock exchange. This factor contributed to a 4,000% increase in the company’s stock value in 2024; however, the price plunged 81% when Bitcoin dropped by 30% over the past month amid rising selling pressure that has prompted fears of a new bear market among investors. Leverage further amplifies the existing risks. For Metaplanet to break even, Bitcoin must reach $108,000. For their investment model to function effectively, however, BTC must surpass $130,000. If Bitcoin falls below $70,000, Metaplanet may have to sell assets to meet collateral requirements. Anslem further noted: For now, Metaplanet stands as neither triumph nor failure but as the most consequential experiment in corporate Bitcoin allocation currently running… The hotel company that bet everything on Bitcoin approaches its moment of truth. The world should be watching. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Total XRP ETF assets crossed $628 million, absorbing nearly 80 million tokens in 24 hours, making for a stronger initial response than Solana’s ETF debut earlier this year.
Bitcoin is sitting at a critical crossroads once again, hovering dangerously close to a liquidity pocket that could trigger deeper losses if bulls fail to respond. Momentum has slowed, volatility is tightening, and attention is now locked on one key level that could determine whether BTC stages a recovery or slips further into the trap below $82,000. Key Resistance at $89,000 Remains Bitcoin’s Biggest Hurdle Analyst Lennaert Snyder highlighted in a recent update that BTC is currently locked in a critical fight for the key $89,000 resistance level. He acknowledged the recent price action, noting that Bitcoin had a “nice bounce” from the support box he posted yesterday, advising those who longed for the bottom to “enjoy the gains. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Sudden Volatility Jump Signals Options Could Be Calling The Shots—Analyst Snyder confirmed that the $86,000 support box is still valid, but stressed that this level should now only be used for reversals. A return to this support would be interpreted as a weak sign, indicating that buyers are struggling to maintain the current altitude. The primary objective remains to break the immediate overhead barrier. Lennaert Snyder states that Bitcoin still needs to decisively reclaim the $89,000 resistance to trigger a meaningful rally and long entries to the next target at $93,000. Given the ongoing struggle at resistance, the analyst confirms that it is “totally understandable” if traders are looking for local short entries. Losing the crucial $86,000 support level would confirm a structural breakdown, triggering shorts to the next major target at the $82,200 rangelow. Finally, Lennaert Snyder warned about the potential for a deeper move, stating that if the market goes for the lows again, it should be treated as a reversal opportunity only. He notes a high probability that sellers will sweep the $80,600 low to “tank new fuel.” Smart Risk First: Analyst Stresses Discipline Over Aggression According to crypto expert and investor Ted Pillows, the current Bitcoin setup is a moment that demands strict risk management. He emphasized that BTC continues to face heavy rejection around the $88,000 resistance level, making this zone a decisive barrier for further upside. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Recovery Loses Strength, Traders Watch $90K as Last Line of Defense In response to the ongoing uncertainty, Ted noted that he has manually taken partial profits across all open trades. The move is meant to reduce exposure and protect capital until Bitcoin provides a clearer directional signal. With volatility tightening, he believes caution is the smarter play. Ted added that he intends to scale back into his positions only after Bitcoin successfully flips the resistance level into support and holds above the S/R zone. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin has surged past the $90,000 mark, buoyed by rising expectations of a December Federal Reserve rate cut.
Bitcoin has struggled below the $90,000 level since last week and is now attempting to stabilize as selling pressure continues to shape market sentiment. The sharp downturn from the recent cycle high has left bullish traders on the defensive, with confidence weakening across spot and derivatives markets. Analysts who just weeks ago projected continuation toward new all-time highs are now shifting their tone, with many calling for the beginning of a bear market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short Squeeze Flushes Out Late Longers as Funding Turns Negative: Classic Capitulation Signal The broader market environment has amplified these concerns. Momentum has flipped downward, liquidity has thinned, and buyers have been unable to reclaim key resistance levels that would signal strength. As Bitcoin searches for support, investors are now watching reactions around the high-$80K region to determine whether this decline is part of a deeper structural reversal or a temporary correction within the larger trend. According to top analyst Axel Adler, Long-Term Holders have played a pivotal role in the current downturn. He reports that this cohort conducted the largest profit-taking event of the entire cycle, reducing positions by 1.57 million BTC over the quarter as prices fell toward $80,000. This scale of distribution historically aligns with exhaustion phases and late-cycle tops, intensifying speculation that Bitcoin may be entering a more prolonged period of weakness. Long-Term Holder Distribution Signals Major Cycle Shift Axel Adler highlights that Long-Term Holders (LTH) are conducting massive profit-taking, pushing supply levels back to early 2023 lows. According to his data, the 30-day Net Position Change now reflects one of the deepest sell-offs seen in the entire bull cycle. LTH supply has fallen sharply from the peak of 15.75 million BTC to the current 13.6 million BTC—marking the lowest reading since the beginning of the cycle. Adler notes that this pattern aligns with a classic smart-money distribution phase often observed near major market tops. Over just the past two weeks (November 11–25), LTH sold 803,399 BTC, representing a drop of 5.54% and averaging 53,560 BTC per day. Historically, such compression in supply has only occurred during major inflection periods. Adler compares the current reading to previous extremes—March 2024, following the $73,000 all-time high sell-off, and October 2024, when Bitcoin corrected from the ATH toward $85,000. The present phase demonstrates aggressive coin dumping, with deeply negative red bars on the Net Position Change while price simultaneously declined from the October peak. This combination of rapid supply reduction and falling price suggests that LTH distribution is exerting meaningful pressure on the market. The data implies that the cycle may be transitioning toward a structurally weaker phase unless new demand re-enters to absorb the sell-side volume. Related Reading: XRP OI Collapses to Lowest Level Since Nov 2024: Binance Data Shows Liquidity Is Fading BTC Attempts Stabilization After Sharp Breakdown Bitcoin’s price action on the daily chart shows a market struggling to regain footing after a steep decline from the $120K region to a recent low near $80K. The current trading level around $86,800 reflects an attempted relief bounce, yet the broader trend remains clearly bearish. Price is positioned below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, all of which are now sloping downward—a structure that typically signals sustained downside momentum. The rejection from the mid-November breakdown zone reinforces the idea that former support has flipped into resistance. Related Reading: 63K Bitcoin Exits Long-Term Wallets: A Surge of Speculative Short-Term Buying Volume spikes during the selloff indicate forced liquidation and capitulation-driven selling rather than orderly distribution, while the recent bounce has occurred on noticeably lighter volume, suggesting weak conviction from buyers. For bulls, the key focus is whether Bitcoin can build a base above the $85K region to avoid another wave of selling pressure. Losing this level could expose further downside toward $78K and potentially $72K. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
According to crypto analyst Tony Severino, the Bitcoin price has broken below the 50-week Moving Average (MA) for the first time in the current cycle, triggering renewed fears of a deeper decline. With price momentum weakening and long-term trend indicators flashing bearish warning signals, the possibility of a price crash to $38,000 is becoming hard to ignore. 50-MA Breakdown To Trigger $38,000 Bitcoin Price Crash The Bitcoin price action took a decisive turn this week as the market slipped below the 50 MA for the first time in this four-year cycle. Severino noted in his technical analysis shared on X this Monday that the 50 MA has historically marked the beginning of extended downturns. He stated that following Bitcoin’s launch over 14 years ago, every time it has closed below the 50 MA, a prolonged bear market has followed. Related Reading: Financial Strategist Debunks Prediction That Bitcoin Price Will Reach $220,000 In 45 Days Severino’s price chart highlights BTC’s price performance from 2017 to date. In the past three Bitcoin bear markets, after the price fell below the 50-week MA, BTC continued to drop an additional 61%, 59%, and 67%. On average, the cryptocurrency has lost 62% from the break point. Applying the 62% drawdown to this cycle’s 50 MA level, the analyst predicts Bitcoin could soon experience a price crash to $38,000. From the cryptocurrency’s current price of above $87,000, this represents a staggering 60% decline. Additionally, it would imply a roughly 70% decline from its all-time high of more than $126,000. Severino warns that traders calling for a price bottom may be ignoring how far Bitcoin has historically fallen once this long-term trend fails. He indicated that the 50-week MA has repeatedly served as a dividing line between bullish and bearish phases, and that price slipping below it has more often led to extended periods of weakness and capitulation. Bitcoin Momentum Indicator Falls To Historic Lows A second analysis presented by Severino focuses on Bitcoin’s daily LMACD, which is now near levels not seen in more than 1,250 days. The oscillator has only pushed below this level six times since BTC’s 2017 macro peak. These past instances correspond to periods of heavy downside momentum where the cryptocurrency had yet to complete its bottoming process. Related Reading: One Of The Most Popular Bitcoin Advocates Dumps Millions In BTC, Here’s Why Looking at Severino’s price chart, the extended period without revisiting this lower bound suggests Bitcoin may be overdue for a momentum reset. The LMACD indicator’s current reading is also unusually weak historically, signaling that market momentum has not yet reached extreme pessimism. The readings further indicate that, although BTC remains in a downtrend, price corrections remain possible before a true bottom is established. According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin is trading below $87,000 amid volatile, choppy conditions that have contributed to its 24% decline over the past month. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin’s (BTC) latest upward move arrives at a time when confidence in the market remains uncertain, with many traders unsure whether the slight price recovery marks early strength or another temporary bounce. With last week’s pullback still fresh, a crypto analyst argues that most traders may label the recent recovery a dead cat bounce. However, he believes the narrative is misleading and predicts that Bitcoin’s rebound this week may be setting the stage for a stronger rally. Why The Bitcoin Price Recovery Is Not A Dead Cat Bounce Market analyst and founder of The House of Crypto, Peter Anthony, has released a new technical analysis of Bitcoin that challenges the prevailing bearish sentiment among traders. In his post on X, Anthony stated that the repeated claims of a dead cat bounce are part of a recurring pattern that has appeared at multiple stages of previous Bitcoin price recoveries. Related Reading: XRP Has Just Flashed ‘The Real Signal’, Analyst Reveals Where Price Is Headed He explained that market sentiments have swung so far into fear that many traders may have already locked in their worst losses just as the market began to recover. According to his analysis, last week’s BTC sell-off and price crash prompted many participants to exit their positions near the bottom. Now that the cryptocurrency is recovering, the analyst believes those same traders will hesitate to re-enter the market, convinced that the recent rebound is nothing more than a dead cat bounce. In his chart, Anthony highlighted several instances in the past when similar skepticism emerged after Bitcoin continued trending higher following a downturn. The analyst expects this pessimistic behavior to persist, stating that traders may continue labeling every upward push a dead cat bounce until BTC reaches $100,000 and beyond. This suggests that investors might interpret each step higher as a warning sign that the price rally is only temporary and bound to fail. While he believes the underlying trend is bullish, Anthony has acknowledged that a correction could still emerge as Bitcoin approaches previous highs. However, he reassures that the routine pullback would not negate the broader recovery underway. The analyst’s report indicates that the dead cat bounce narrative will prove to be a false signal. He predicts that disbelief in the market will eventually give way to Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) once Bitcoin decisively moves above $115,000. At that point, Anthony forecasts that many traders who sold during the downturn will scramble to buy back in at higher levels, completing a cycle of selling low and buying high. BTC Could Hit $115,000 Before Skeptics Turn Bullish In a follow-up post, Anthony issued a sharp critique of the emotional trading patterns and bearish sentiment dominating the crypto market. According to him, many of these traders who insist the Bitcoin rally has ended will continue to call every upward move a dead cat bounce, even as the price advances. Related Reading: Attack On Cardano Founder Leads To Network Halt, What Really Happened? By the time Bitcoin hits $115,000, the analyst expects investor sentiment to shift abruptly, triggering a late surge of bullishness from traders who had doubted the initial recovery. Anthony argues that these sudden changes in viewpoint will have little to do with careful analysis and everything to do with watching the chart move and reacting afterward. Featured image created with Shedevrum, chart from Tradingview.com
Filing comes amid rapid growth in IBIT options activity and a migration of open interest toward US regulated venues.
Just when traders got used to price declines on the Wednesday ahead of Turkey Day, bitcoin pulled a reversal higher.
As British taxes have been hiked once again, the U.K.-based publication took a victory lap on bitcoin's recent struggles.
The fresh bitcoin purchase lifts holdings to 1,183 BTC as management emphasizes disciplined long term strategy.
Bitcoin’s famous four-year halving rhythm is giving way to a shorter, ETF-driven performance clock, argues ProCap Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Jeff Park in a new Substack essay. In his view, the dominant force in Bitcoin’s boom-bust dynamics is shifting “from mining economics to fund-manager economics,” with a new “two-year cycle” anchored in ETF flows and institutional return hurdles. Park starts by declaring that the traditional pattern built around halvings belongs to “the old Bitcoin.” Historically, programmed supply cuts compressed miner margins, pushed weaker operators out and reduced structural sell pressure. Combined with a powerful narrative, each halving triggered a reflexive loop of “early positioning, rising prices, media virality, retail FOMO and leveraged mania” that ended in a bust. That mechanism, he argues, is now significantly diluted. With most of Bitcoin’s eventual supply already circulating, each halving shaves off a smaller fraction of the total float. The “diminishing marginal inflation impact” means the issuance shock is too small to reliably drive the next cycle on its own. The ETF-Driven 2-Year Bitcoin Cycle Begins Instead, Park contends that Bitcoin is increasingly governed by how professional allocators behave inside ETF wrappers. He openly labels his framework as resting on “three heavy-handed, contestable assumptions.” Related Reading: Capriole Founder Not Bearish On Bitcoin Despite Headwinds—Here’s Why First, most institutional investors are de facto evaluated over one- to two-year horizons because of how liquid fund investment committees operate. Second, new net liquidity into Bitcoin will be dominated by ETF channels, making them the main footprint to watch. Third, the selling behavior of legacy “OG whales” remains the largest supply variable, but is treated as exogenous to his ETF-centric analysis. Within this lens, two concepts matter most: common-holder risk and calendar-year P&L. Park notes that when “everyone owns the same thing,” flows can amplify both rallies and drawdowns. But he focuses on something easier to observe: the way annual performance crystallizes on December 31. For hedge funds in particular, “when volatility increases towards the end of the year” and there isn’t enough P&L “baked in,” managers become more willing to sell their riskiest positions. The choice, he writes, is often “the difference between getting another shot to play in 2026, or getting fired.” Park leans on Ahoniemi and Jylhä’s 2011 paper Flows, Price Pressure, and Hedge Fund Returns, highlighting its finding that a large share of hedge-fund “alpha” is flow-driven and that return–reversal cycles stretch “almost two years.” This, he says, offers a blueprint for how liquidity and performance feedbacks could structure Bitcoin’s ETF era. He then sketches how a CIO might sell Bitcoin internally: as an asset expected to deliver something like a 25–30 percent compound annual return. On that basis, a position must generate roughly 50 percent over two years to justify its risk and fee drag. Park references Michael Saylor’s “30% CAGR for the next 20 years” as a rough institutional hurdle. From there he builds a three-cohort thought experiment. Investors who bought via ETFs from inception through year-end 2024 are up around 100 percent in a single year, effectively having “pulled forward 2.6 years of performance.” A second cohort that entered on 1 January 2025 is roughly 7 percent underwater, now needing “80%+ over the next year, or 50% over the next two years” to hit the same hurdle. A third group, holding from inception through the end of 2025, is up about 85 percent over two years—only slightly ahead of its 30 percent CAGR target. For that group, Park says, the live question becomes: “Do I sell and lock it now, or do I let it run longer?” Related Reading: Bitcoin Flashes A Triple Bearish Divergence: CMT Sounds The Alarm ETF flow data sharpen the picture. Park highlights that Bitcoin now trades near “an increasingly important price, $84k,” which he characterizes as roughly the aggregate cost basis of ETF flows to date. While 2024 inflows carry substantial embedded gains, “almost none of the ETF flows in 2025 are in the green,” with March as a partial exception. October 2024, the largest inflow month, saw Bitcoin around $70,000; November 2024 closed near $96,000. On a 30 percent hurdle, Park estimates one-year targets of roughly $91,000 and $125,000 dollars for those vintages. June 2025 inflows near $107,000 imply a $140,000 target by June 2026. He argues that Bitcoin ETF AUM is now at an “inflection point,” where a 10 percent price drop would drag total AUM back to roughly its level at the start of the year. That would leave the ETF complex with little to show, in dollar P&L, for 2025 despite taking on meaningful risk and inflows. The key takeaway, Park writes, is that investors must track not only the average ETF cost basis, but also “the moving average of that P&L by vintage.” Those rolling profit profiles will, in his view, become the main “liquidity pressures and circuit breakers” for Bitcoin, eclipsing the old four-year halving template. His second conclusion cuts against retail intuition: “If Bitcoin price doesn’t move, but time moves forward, this is ultimately bad for Bitcoin in the institutional era.” In a fee-and-benchmark world, flat is not neutral; it is underperformance versus the 30 percent ROI that justified the allocation. That alone can trigger selling. “In summary,” Park concludes, “the 4-year cycle is definitely over.” Bitcoin will still be driven by marginal demand, marginal supply and profit-taking. But “the buyers have changed,” and with halving-driven supply shocks less decisive, it is the more “predictable” incentives of ETF managers—expressed over roughly two-year windows—that may now define Bitcoin’s market cycle. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $87,559. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Analysts note Bitcoin's rebound is tracking U.S. equity strength, with $88,000 as a key threshold to confirm a local bottom.
Bitcoin’s Thanksgiving level looks set to trail 2024, echoing prior cooldown years.
The founder of Capriole Investments says he “cannot be bearish” on Bitcoin, pointing to key indicators that remain inside green territories. Bitcoin Heater & NVT Are Both Inside Bullish Zones In a new post on X, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards has shared a couple of indicators related to Bitcoin that could paint a picture different than what the crowd is thinking right now. Related Reading: XRP Jumps 7%, But Watch Out For Speculative Froth The first indicator is Capriole’s “Heater,” gauging the situation related to the derivatives market. The metric tracks the data associated with the entire sector, including perpetual swaps, futures, and options markets. When this indicator has a high value, it’s a sign that investors are using high leverage and have an extreme level of bullish positioning across the various derivatives markets. Now, here is the chart for the metric shared by Edwards that shows the trend in its value over the last few years: As is visible in the above graph, the Heater has witnessed a plunge recently as the Bitcoin price has crashed, indicating a cooldown in sentiment on the different derivatives markets. The metric is now inside the green zone, which has historically facilitated at least local bottom formations for the cryptocurrency. The same signal also emerged alongside the bear market bottom back in November 2022. The other indicator that’s bullish on Bitcoin right now is the Dynamic Range NVT. The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Ratio is a popular BTC metric that’s used for measuring whether the asset’s value (that is, the market cap) is fair compared to the network’s ability to transact coins (the transaction volume). When this metric has a high value, it means that the market cap is high relative to the transaction volume. Such a trend could be a sign that a correction may be due for the coin. On the other hand, a low value on the metric can suggest the cryptocurrency’s value may not be inflated relative to its volume, and thus, could potentially have room to grow. Capriole’s Dynamic Range NVT defines lower and upper bands for the metric, beyond which the asset may be considered underbought and overbought, respectively. As the metric’s name suggests, these bands are dynamic, meaning that they change with time and reflect the recent Bitcoin environment. From the above chart, it’s apparent that the Bitcoin NVT Ratio has declined below its lower band recently, implying the coin may be undervalued. The last time this signal appeared was during the bearish period earlier in the year. Related Reading: Bitcoin To $40,000? Signal Behind Past 60% Crashes Is Back “We have some big headwinds to resolve (like institutional selling), but I cannot be bearish with Heater in the deep green zone today + fundamental value across the board,” said Edwards. The analyst suspects BTC might climb higher for at least the coming week. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $87,000, down over 7% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Capriole.com, chart from TradingView.com