With the Bitcoin price evidently in a bear cycle, there were not a lot of positives to take from the market’s performance in the past month. According to a recent on-chain observation, March seems set to be a continuation of the worrying trend, as a relevant metric paints a bearish picture for the world’s leading cryptocurrency. Whale Activity Rouses Expectations Of Sell Pressure In a recent Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, analyst Arab Chain revealed a critical change in Bitcoin’s whale behavior, as reflected on the Binance Whale To Exchange Flow. This metric tracks the total amount of Bitcoin transferred by large holders into Binance over a 30-day period. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETF Investors Show Diamond Hands: Only $6.5B In Outflows Since October 10 According to Arab Chain, the whale inflow to Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, spiked to as high as $8.8 billion, marking an expansion toward new highs not seen since early 2022. Interestingly, this surge in exchange inflows was seen at the same time Bitcoin was trading at around $64,000. Arab Chain further explained that the sudden, large exchange inflows from these BTC whales suggest a significant rise in the activity of this investor group. According to historical data, these large movements to trading platforms indicate the intentions of whales to sell. However, more than just a signal of potential sell pressure, this event could also be an indication that Bitcoin’s whales are reallocating their positions. Regardless of the prevalent intent among this investor group, it appears that these whales are preparing for a major move or shift in the Bitcoin market. Arab Chain also referenced observations from comparing the current move to that which occurred in 2021. According to the analytics group, 2021 “saw price peaks followed by sharp corrections after waves of large whale inflows to exchanges.” — and because this is recurring today, it might be a sign of “increased potential selling pressure, or at least a willingness among large investors to manage risk at elevated price levels.” But then, Arab Chain pointed out that surges in exchange inflows do not necessarily mean a bearish period would follow, as some cycles only witnessed high volatility before price continued to expand. Nonetheless, the present conditions reveal that the Bitcoin market is at a “crossroads,” where its price action in the coming weeks could be pivotal in determining what’s next for the asset. Bitcoin Price At A Glance At the time of this writing, the price of BTC stands at $67,960, reflecting a nearly 3% jump in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Bitcoin Historical Cycle Pattern Points To $31,500 Bottom Target – Details Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin is trading at weekly RSI levels historically seen near bear market bottoms, signaling that selling pressure may be easing. While confirmation is needed, the market is in a zone often marking late-stage capitulation. The key question: was the recent drop the final flush, or is one last shakeout still ahead? RSI Compression Signals Downside Exhaustion According to crypto analyst Batman, Bitcoin’s weekly RSI has fallen back into the same territory that historically marked prior bear market bottoms. This momentum zone has repeatedly appeared during late-stage capitulation phases, making it a critical signal that the market could be nearing another major turning point. Related Reading: Bitcoin Nears Major Milestone As 100 BTC Wallets Approach Record Levels However, Batman is clear that this does not confirm the bottom is already in, stressing the importance of waiting for proper confirmation before declaring a reversal. Still, he notes that when RSI compresses to these levels on the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin has typically been much closer to a structural low than to the beginning of a fresh collapse. Reflecting on the 2022 bear cycle, Batman points out that once RSI entered this extreme zone, price managed to print one final lower low. However, that move occurred very close to the ultimate bottom, indicating that most of the downside had already played out by the time momentum reached such depressed readings. The analyst concludes that probabilities matter more than precision. From his perspective, when Bitcoin trades at these weekly RSI levels, it historically represents a zone where strategic accumulation becomes increasingly attractive. Bitcoin’s Six Consecutive Weekly Lower Highs — A Rare Signal In a recent weekly Bitcoin analysis, SuperBro pointed out that BTC has now printed six consecutive weekly lower highs, a rare structural pattern. The last time this occurred was during the COVID crash in 2020, a period marked by extreme volatility and eventual macro reversal. Related Reading: Fidelity Thinks Bitcoin May Be Leaving Its 80% Crashes Behind Price is currently slipping beneath the 200-week EMA and the volume Point of Control (POC), though the weekly candle has not yet closed. A reclaim of the POC before the close could trigger a sharp upside reaction and signal that the breakdown attempt is losing strength. Just below current levels sits the rising 200-week SMA, adding another layer of higher-timeframe support. RSI remains at extreme levels, suggesting that momentum is already deeply stretched. When you combine oversold conditions with six straight lower highs pressing into major support, the case for sustained downside continuation becomes less convincing. Beyond the near-term structure, the broader megaphone formation remains intact. If that macro pattern ultimately plays out, its upper trajectory projects potential targets north of $300,000, keeping the long-term expansion thesis firmly on the table despite current compression. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin's future hinges less on technological factors and more on how AI affects growth, employment, real interest rates, and central bank liquidity, NYDIG Research argues.
Empery Digital holds 3,723 BTC as a reserve asset, and a major investor is calling for the company to sell the lot and return the cash to shareholders.
The missiles started flying, and so did the sell orders. Within hours of the US and Israel launching coordinated strikes on Iran, Bitcoin had dropped as much as 3.8% to $63,038, Ethereum had fallen nearly 9%, and more than 152,000 traders had been liquidated across crypto markets. With traditional stock and bond markets closed for the weekend, digital assets absorbed the full force of the panic — alone. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sell-Off Slows Down, But The Road To Recovery Is Long — Analyst US And Israel Hit Iran’s Military And Nuclear Sites US President Donald Trump confirmed on Friday that the US had begun what he described as “major combat operations” against Iran, with strikes aimed at the country’s missile systems, naval assets, and nuclear infrastructure. Reports say Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz described the operation as a preemptive move, with both governments coordinating the assault. The scale and speed of the attack caught many off guard, and Iran’s response came quickly. The US is carrying out strikes on Iran, two US officials tell CNN. Follow live updates: https://t.co/pG6pfrPwlm pic.twitter.com/vPGeQ9ILHp — CNN (@CNN) February 28, 2026 According to reports, Iran launched waves of missiles and drones targeting not just Israel but American military installations across the Gulf region. A US base in Bahrain was reportedly struck. Qatar and the UAE said their defense systems intercepted projectiles flying over their territory. Explosions were heard in Dubai. Bahrain shut its airspace entirely. Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency declared that all US bases and interests across the region would be considered legitimate targets. The conflict, by Saturday morning, had spread well beyond Iranian and Israeli borders. Crypto Markets Take The Hit Traditional Markets Cannot Yet Feel Stocks, bonds, and commodities markets were closed. Crypto was not. Bitcoin trades around the clock, every day of the week, which made it the only major financial market available to absorb the weekend’s fear. The selling was fast and broad. Reports say roughly $128 billion in total market value was wiped across digital assets in the hours following the strike confirmation. Related Reading: Crypto Mixing Is Back — And Criminals Adapted Faster Than The Rules Did Bitcoin fell from around $66,000 to as low as $63,038 before settling near $64,000. Ethereum dropped below $1,850. XRP slid 8% to trade near $1.29. Solana, Dogecoin, Cardano, and Chainlink each recorded losses of between 8% and 12%. According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin futures liquidations reached approximately $192 million, with futures trading volume surging to around $68.27 billion — a sign that derivatives markets were amplifying the move rather than spot sellers driving it alone. Total liquidations across all crypto assets hit $515 million within 24 hours. The Fear and Greed Index, a widely watched measure of market sentiment, fell to 14 — deep inside extreme fear territory. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin’s higher-timeframe structure is in an interesting state, according to crypto analyst Crypto Patel, who is of the notion that the cryptocurrency has officially entered bearish territory after breaking a long-term support level at $107,000. Technical analysis of price action on the weekly candlestick price chart shows Bitcoin is now in this bearish territory, with a projection of a deeper correction to as low as $35,000 in 2026. The outlook is based on Fibonacci retracement levels that could determine Bitcoin’s next price move. Bearish Territory Kicked In After Breakdown Below $107,000 The outlook of this technical analysis is based on the premise that Bitcoin entered into bearish territory after the price broke down below a major higher-timeframe ascending trendline around $107,000. This trendline, which is visible on the weekly chart shared by Crypto Patel, acted as dynamic support throughout much of the 2023 to 2025 rally. It connected a series of higher lows and helped sustain the broader bullish structure that ended with Bitcoin reaching a peak price of $126,080. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Done Or Is This Just The Beginning? Pundit Shares Points To Consider The chart shows the breakdown zone with a red circle, indicating where the price decisively lost that upward support. After the breach, Bitcoin entered into a changed momentum and began printing lower highs. According to Patel, that trendline was the line in the sand, and losing it was when Bitcoin officially entered bearish territory. The market now needs a healthy correction before the next leg up. Fibonacci Levels Point To $44,000 And $35,000 Bitcoin has been on a downward path since the beginning of the year, and the projection is that this will continue until it bottoms out around $35,000. This outlook is based on how much the Bitcoin price corrected in previous cycles. Related Reading: Are Institutions Killing Bitcoin And Ethereum? Here’s How They’ve Fared Since Companies Got Involved For instance, the 2018 bear market saw an approximately 84% decline from peak to trough. Similarly, the 2022 correction erased roughly 77% from its cycle high. In both instances, these deep retracements came before the next major rally. Based on that historical perspective, a move below $50,000 from the current price level would not be unprecedented. Instead, it would fit within Bitcoin’s established cycle behavior. The projected downside targets are derived from Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the October 2025 all-time high. Two levels stand out clearly on the chart. The first level is the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement, which is currently around $44,000. The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement is a mid-cycle pullback level and has always attracted strong buying interest in previous corrections, making it a possible stabilization point if selling pressure slows down. Should Bitcoin fail to find support near $44,000, then the next level is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement around $35,000. The expectation is that Bitcoin will eventually bottom at $35,000 even if it fails to hold above $44,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $63,740, down by 6% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
With BTC down nearly 50% from its peak, analysts are sparring over whether the slump marks early repricing or signals more pain to come.
As February comes to a close, it would be fair to say that the Bitcoin price has had one of its worst monthly performances in over two years. What’s worrisome is that the premier cryptocurrency doesn’t appear to be done, as the bear market roars on. Below are some of the relevant support levels to watch out for over the next few months. MVRV Bands Put BTC Bear Market Bottom At $51,558 In a recent post on the X platform, popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez identified two levels that could be crucial to the future of the Bitcoin price in the coming months. This evaluation revolves around the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) pricing bands. Related Reading: The Distribution Trap: Why Bitcoin’s Reserve Growth Proves Sellers Still Hold The Tape The MVRV pricing bands are an on-chain analytics tool that shows the different profitability levels of the investors of a cryptocurrency (Bitcoin, in this scenario). Typically, these pricing bands represent dynamic support and resistance levels, as they compare the current market price to the average realized value of all investors. Hence, the MVRV pricing bands can be useful in identifying potential market tops (in overheated conditions) and price bottoms (of undervalued assets). According to Glassnode data shared by Martinez, the potential bottom in the current Bitcoin bear market lies between $51,558 and $54,703. The purple line (which shows a -1 standard deviation of the MVRV ratio) represents a deep capitulation phase for the market and has always been a point of reversal for the Bitcoin price in past bear markets. As shown in the chart below, the price of BTC got rejected twice at this level in 2022, during the thick of the crypto winter. At the time of publishing his post, Martinez revealed that the purple MVRV band stood at around $51,558. While this suggests that the $51,000 level could be the potential bottom of the current bear market, it is worth mentioning that the MVRV band could shift slightly downward as the price steadily falls. In the unlikely scenario that the Bitcoin price witnesses a turnaround at its current price point, it would have to contend with a key resistance level around $73,726. According to Glassnode’s MVRV pricing bands, the -0.5 standard deviation line represents an accumulation zone, where investors might look to offload their tokens once they break even. Ultimately, these MVRV pricing bands hint at the potential turning points for the Bitcoin price over the coming months. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $65,800, reflecting an over 2% dip in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Ethereum’s Market Order Imbalance Hits Record Negatives: $1,850 Is Now The Line In The Sand Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Negative funding rates, rising open interest and liquidations point to crowded positioning and heightened derivatives activity.
Tehran launched waves of missiles and drones targeting Israel, U.S. bases, and Gulf allies, with explosions reported in Dubai, Kuwait, and Bahrain.
Bitcoin has reclaimed the $66,000 level and is now attempting to consolidate above it in order to extend its recovery. The move has improved short-term momentum, but structural signals suggest that upside conviction remains fragile. Holding above $66K is technically important, yet the broader supply backdrop may limit the sustainability of further gains. Related Reading: Engine Stalled: How The $8 Billion ‘October Shock’ Left Bitcoin’s Spot Market In A Liquidity Trap According to analyst Axel Adler, cumulative exchange netflows remain a critical constraint. As long as netflows stay positive — meaning more Bitcoin is moving onto exchanges than leaving them — the probability of sustained price expansion remains limited. Recent data from the Bitcoin Exchange Reserve (All Exchanges, Daily) metric reinforces this caution. Since January 14, total BTC held across major exchanges has increased from 2.723 million to 2.752 million BTC, representing a net addition of roughly 28,489 BTC, or about 1% over 45 days. Although the trajectory has not been linear — with a local peak near 2.794 million BTC in early February followed by a partial pullback — reserves have consistently re-established themselves near the upper bound of the range. This stepwise growth structure signals a persistent return of coins to exchanges. Historically, rising exchange balances imply expanding potential sell-side supply. Until reserves break decisively below January’s 2.723 million BTC baseline, structural selling pressure remains embedded in the market. Netflow Regime Shift Signals Structural Distribution The 30-day moving average of Bitcoin exchange netflows provides critical confirmation that the recent reserve growth is not incidental. The transition from -1,187 BTC on January 14 to +628 BTC by February 27 represents more than a short-term fluctuation — it reflects a structural regime shift from accumulation to distribution. When the SMA(30) netflow remains negative, it indicates coins are being withdrawn from exchanges faster than they are deposited, typically associated with accumulation behavior. The steady climb toward zero throughout January, followed by a decisive cross into positive territory on February 1, marks a clear behavioral pivot. The fact that the indicator has held above zero for nearly four consecutive weeks significantly reduces the probability of a false breakout. The mid-February impulse toward +1,069 BTC highlights the intensity of inflows during peak distribution pressure. Although the metric moderated afterward, it did not revert below zero, suggesting that coins continue to migrate toward exchanges at a sustained pace. At an average structural inflow rate of roughly 628 BTC per day, the supply available for potential sale is expanding. Until the SMA(30) decisively flips back into negative territory, exchange-side pressure remains dominant, limiting the probability of a durable bullish regime reestablishing itself. Related Reading: The $2,000 Fault Line: Why Ethereum’s Record Volatility Signals An Imminent Explosion Bitcoin Tests Macro Support After Rejection From Highs Bitcoin’s weekly structure reflects a clear transition from expansion to correction following rejection near the $120K–$130K region. The chart shows a decisive breakdown below the $90K–$95K zone, which previously acted as structural support. That level has now flipped into resistance, confirming a shift in market control. Price is currently consolidating near $66K after a sharp decline, hovering just above the 200-week moving average. This level historically acts as a macro support during deeper corrective phases. Holding above it is technically significant; sustained closes below would likely signal a more prolonged bear cycle. The 50-week moving average has rolled over and is trending downward, while the 100-week average is flattening. This alignment indicates weakening intermediate momentum and suggests rallies may face overhead pressure unless key trend levels are reclaimed. Related Reading: Digital Gold Is Dead: The Institutional Architecture Binding Bitcoin To The Nasdaq In The 2026 Downturn Volume expanded notably during the breakdown phase, pointing to forced liquidations and distribution rather than orderly consolidation. Since then, participation has moderated, implying that panic selling has eased but conviction remains limited. Structurally, Bitcoin sits at a pivotal inflection point. A reclaim of the mid-$80K region would be required to restore bullish structure. Conversely, failure to defend current support could expose deeper liquidity zones below. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
The latest Jane Street debate on X is meeting a blunt rebuttal from Ari Paul. The BlockTower founder, who says he used to work as a Wall Street market maker 15 years ago, argues that Bitcoin’s failure to push higher is better explained by spot sell-side than by a long-running suppression campaign. Paul’s answer was direct. “In short: no,” he wrote, before adding that market makers do “game the system” in many ways, but that in liquid products such as BTC ETFs, the effect is usually limited to “meaningful but small costs to consumers,” not a lasting distortion of the underlying asset price. He framed the distinction as one between short-term microstructure games and a broader claim that one firm kept Bitcoin from reaching far higher levels. Bitcoin Manipulation? Small Moves, Fast Reversions To make that case, Paul pointed to the kind of behavior traders on desks know well. “For example, market makers may manipulate the price to run stop limit orders,” he wrote. “But that’s typically on an intraday timeframe. So they might run an asset like MSFT or BTC 2% in a weak market to trigger stops, then a few seconds or minutes later, the price is mostly back to where it was before.” In his telling, that is still manipulation, but it is not the same as structurally pinning Bitcoin below some imagined fair value for months. Related Reading: Bitcoin Spot Volumes Sink To 2024 Lows As Coinbase Selling Pressure Eases That argument lands against a more conspiratorial narrative now circulating online, why Bitcoin is not already at $150,000. Paul’s pushback does not deny that large Wall Street firms can shape short-term trading conditions. It rejects the stronger claim that such activity is the central explanation for Bitcoin’s broader price path. Paul’s core point was much less dramatic. “Why is BTC down? Because OGs sold tens of thousands of coins, and not enough people wanted to buy them.” That line closely matched the view from renowned on-chain analyst James Check, who argued that “Jane Street didn’t suppress the Bitcoin price” and that “HODLers all did,” by selling large amounts of spot into the market. Jane Street didn’t suppress the Bitcoin price folks. HODLers all did. It’s just not that hard, stop summoning your inner salty goldbug but blaming manipulators. People. Sold. A. Fucktonne. Of. Spot. Bitcoin. https://t.co/CrWgPUzUFP pic.twitter.com/N3VhgYjKhm — _Checkmate ????????⚡☢️????️ (@_Checkmatey_) February 26, 2026 He added: “My point has always been the same; manipulation is a thing that has always, will always, and is indeed the literal job of large wall street firms. However, you do not need that as the central argument to explain why the price didn’t go higher, nor why it went lower. That can be well and truly explained by looking at spot sell-side.” Paul did leave room for exceptions. He wrote that there are rare cases where Wall Street manipulates an asset in major ways over a longer period, but said those cases are uncommon because they are risky and harder to profit from than people assume. Related Reading: Is Jane Street Why Bitcoin Isn’t At $150K? Expert Debunks The Myth “There are rare exceptions where Wall Street manipulates an asset in major ways longer term, but this is quite rare because it’s very risky and not as easy as it looks to profit. 99% of the time that an asset isn’t moving like you want and people are crying “manipulation”, it’s best to embrace the cognitive dissonance, avoid the “easy way out” of blaming manipulation,” Paul wrote. That leaves the current Jane Street argument in a narrower frame. Yes, large firms can influence intraday flows, liquidity, and execution quality. But based on Paul’s account, that is a long way from proving that one market maker is the reason Bitcoin is not trading materially higher. Notably, the Jane Street theory picked up fresh attention after Terraform Labs’ wind-down administrator sued the firm in Manhattan federal court, alleging insider trading tied to Terra’s 2022 collapse. The complaint says Jane Street used a private chat called “Bryce’s Secret” to obtain non-public information and alleges an 85 million UST trade on Curve that helped trigger a selloff; Jane Street has denied wrongdoing and called the case opportunistic. At press time, BTC traded at $66,090. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Institutional capital has transformed the cryptocurrency market dynamics, changing who participates and how digital assets are traded. The arrival of spot exchange-traded funds, corporate treasury allocations, and access through major brokerage platforms has pulled Bitcoin and Ethereum deeper into traditional finance. Vanguard, for instance, reversed its long-held anti-crypto stance just a few months ago, allowing trading in funds that hold Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana. However, talking about bad timing, these cryptocurrencies have struggled in the months following that policy change. Challenging Months For Institutional Investors The entrance of major asset managers such as BlackRock and Fidelity Investments was a structural turning point for Bitcoin. The January 2024 launch of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States opened the door for pension funds, registered investment advisors, and other conservative capital pools to gain exposure without directly holding Bitcoin. These ETFs have accumulated billions of dollars in inflows, with custodians now holding a meaningful share of Bitcoin’s circulating supply. Related Reading: Here’s All You Need To Know About The Bitcoin Price This Week However, the past few months have been really challenging for investors. Notably, the last month of inflows into Spot Bitcoin ETFs was in October 2025, when it was pushing to new all-time highs above $126,000. Since then, it has been months of net outflows, and this has weighed down on Bitcoin’s price action. Same goes for Spot Ethereum ETFs, which recorded consecutive months of outflows since November 2025. Vanguard clients are likely among those feeling the impact most directly. In December 2025, US-based investment management company Vanguard reversed its anti-crypto stance and started allowing trading of ETFs and mutual funds that hold Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana. The availability of these crypto products on a major mainstream brokerage like Vanguard was a milestone for crypto investing. Vanguard manages over $12 trillion in assets and serves tens of millions of investors. Unsurprisingly, the price action of Bitcoin and other top cryptocurrencies initially reacted positively to the Vanguard news. However, the timing coincided with a downturn across the entire crypto market, which has been having a red 2026 so far. Since Vanguard’s rollout, Bitcoin’s price has fallen by about 30%, while Ethereum, Solana, and XRP have fallen by about 40% in the same period. Is Institutional Involvement A Threat Or A Sign Of Maturity? It is clear that institutional entry has not erased the volatile nature of crypto markets. Bitcoin and Ethereum are still subject to swings in investor risk appetite, although this is now at a larger scale. Therefore, the question of whether institutions are killing Bitcoin and Ethereum is based on perspective. Related Reading: Why Investors Are Not Buying Bitcoin And Ethereum Despite ‘Low’ Prices The presence of regulated ETFs means that downturns are now absorbed by a wider set of market participants. Companies like BitMine and Strategy are still in the business of huge purchases. New investor bases like this can help sustain prices over time. However, one thing is clear: cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana are no longer fringe assets operating outside the traditional investment system; they now sit within it. This integration will even become more clear once the CLARITY Act is passed in the US. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com
As Citi integrates Bitcoin into bank-grade custody and reporting frameworks, Morgan Stanley moves to bring crypto trading, lending exploration and tokenized products to mainstream wealth clients.
Between credit stress concerns, a hot PPI inflation reading, and tensions between U.S. and Iran, investors have plenty of reasons to stay away from risk assets.
As market participants focus on short-term price movements, Bitcoin is approaching a notable on-chain milestone, with the number of wallets holding at least 100 BTC climbing toward record levels. This growing concentration of high-value holdings reflects increasing accumulation by large investors, and is viewed as a sign of strong long-term confidence in the world’s leading cryptocurrency. How Large Holders Influence Bitcoin’s Market Cycles Bitcoin is approaching a major milestone, with the number of wallet addresses holding at least 100 BTC set to surpass 20,000. An on-chain analytics firm, Santiment, highlighted on X that at current market valuations, a wallet holding 100 BTC or more is valued at roughly $6.78 million, indicating these addresses are largely controlled by high-net-worth individuals, funds, long-term holders, and institutional participants. Related Reading: Bitcoin Holders Underwater As Supply In Loss Spikes, Reaching Historic Extremes When the number of 100+ BTC wallets increases during or shortly after price declines, as it has been recently, it can be considered a bullish signal. While the number of whale wallets is rising, the overall percentage of BTC supply held by key stakeholders has not meaningfully increased. This helps explain why prices have remained suppressed. However, the growth in 100+ BTC wallets indicates broader distribution among large holders rather than a small group controlling the consolidation. In that sense, it points to less extreme consolidation at the very top. At the same time, it also shows that wealth is clearly migrating from smaller retail wallets into stronger hands. This does not signal decentralization at the smallest ownership level, but it does show that more separate entities are reaching the whale status. Historically, expanding whale wallet counts have often appeared during accumulation phases that later support the price recoveries. For a stronger structural shift to occur, the increase in wallet numbers would need to be matched by a rise in the overall supply they control. That dynamic typically unfolds as retail participants slowly sell off their coins to larger wallets. Meanwhile, history has shown that if retail traders eventually panic-sell or take profit too early, it might lead to the absorption stage. Is This A True Rebound Or A Dead Bounce? Bitcoin adoption is picking up pace across the sector. According to ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, Bitcoin Spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) just recorded their strongest day, pulling in roughly $500 million in a single day, reaching $750 million over the past two days combined at the time the report was published. Related Reading: Engine Stalled: How The $8 Billion ‘October Shock’ Left Bitcoin’s Spot Market In A Liquidity Trap Balchunas views the inflows as “a hitter in a slump going yard,” suggesting the market had been in urgent need of a catalyst after a prolonged period of weak performance. The strong back-to-back inflows have helped ease pressure on the sector, pushing year-to-date ETF outflows to under $2 billion. Despite the sharp turnaround, uncertainty remains about whether the inflow spike represents the beginning of a sustained recovery or merely a temporary bounce. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Fidelity Digital Assets argues Bitcoin’s market structure has shifted enough that the familiar four-year boom-bust pattern and the brutal 80% drawdowns that often followed, may no longer be the default outcome. In a Feb. 24 research note titled “Is Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Over?” research analyst Zack Wainwright frames the call around a simple observation: Bitcoin is now a very different-sized asset with a very different buyer base. Fidelity pegs Bitcoin’s market cap at an all-time high of roughly $2.5 trillion as of October 2025, alongside signs of deeper liquidity and a steadier volatility regime than prior cycles. “As bitcoin matures, price behavior is diverging from previous cycles. Volatility decreasing even as price reached new highs above $126,000.” Bitcoin Demand Is Being Re-Shaped Fidelity’s volatility argument leans on one-year realized volatility and how it behaved around cycle peaks. In prior cycles, the pattern was broadly consistent: volatility would compress into new lows ahead of a major upside move toward new highs, then expand as the cycle overheated. Related Reading: Bitcoin Yet To See Meaningful Capital Return, Glassnode Says This time, Fidelity says the compression is arriving sooner after the peak. The note points to 17 new all-time lows in one-year realized volatility logged in January 2026—just months after Bitcoin notched fresh all-time highs in October 2025—calling it a meaningful divergence from the cadence of earlier cycles. The team attributes part of that dampening to scale: Bitcoin is about twice the market cap it was at the 2021 peak, roughly 10x 2017’s peak, and over 200x 2013’s. The second pillar is who is holding supply, and how sticky that demand appears. Fidelity highlights a cohort of 49 public companies holding more than 1,000 BTC each, with combined holdings above 1 million BTC, over 5% of circulating supply. It also notes that, since Q1 2020, this group increased holdings quarter-over-quarter in every quarter except Q2 2022, when Tesla sold a large portion of its position. On the ETF side, Fidelity writes that US spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024 and collectively held nearly 1.3 million BTC as of Jan. 30, 2026, about 6.4% of circulating supply. The note adds that the category leader surpassed $75 billion in assets under management in under two years, contrasting that pace with gold’s flagship ETF, GLD, which took nearly seven years to reach the same milestone. Together, Fidelity says public companies and ETFs now hold nearly 12% of circulating supply, with most of the growth coming after 2023—a demand shift the team views as structurally important for drawdowns. Related Reading: Bitcoin Spot Volumes Sink To 2024 Lows As Coinbase Selling Pressure Eases Fidelity also argues the cycle has looked “notably stable” across several on-chain and issuance-linked measures. Using a profit-window framework, when addresses in profit first exceed 95% through the last time they remain above 95%, the note says MVRV has stayed roughly around two times realized value through most of the bull market, rather than spiking toward four-to-six times as in earlier cycles. The report flags a counterfactual to illustrate the point: if market cap reached four times realized cap in this cycle, it would imply roughly a $4.5 trillion market cap and about $225,000 per BTC as of Feb. 2, 2026. It also notes the Puell Multiple has stayed close to one, signaling daily issuance value hasn’t meaningfully deviated from its one-year average. Fidelity’s new “Profit to Volatility Ratio” is where the drawdown claim becomes explicit. The team sets 0.01 as a stability line and says the ratio has stayed above 0.015 since late 2023, the longest sustained period at those levels in Bitcoin’s history. Even with a February 2026 downturn that pushed BTC below $70,000, the ratio remained above the threshold. “A measurement above 0.01 can be considered very stable. Conversely, a measurement below 0.01 should be viewed with caution.” The implication, Fidelity suggests, is not that volatility disappears—but that the classic cycle-ending wipeouts may be less likely in a market increasingly shaped by institutional channels and a larger, more liquid base. If that regime holds, the next phase could look less like a blow-off top and more like a slower, more methodical repricing, higher over time, but with fewer cliff-edge resets. At press time, BTC traded at $66,677. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Expert trader Tony Severino, who correctly predicted Bitcoin’s top, has raised the possibility of a crash to $4,000. This comes as BTC continues to struggle to break key resistance levels, signaling that it could be at risk of a deeper decline. Expert Trader Raises Potential Bitcoin Drop To $4,000 In an X post, Tony Severino questioned the possibility that the next Bitcoin bull market is a lower high followed by a lower low. His accompanying chart showed BTC may be forming a Head-and-Shoulder pattern, which could spark a crash to $4,000. As such, he urged market participants to play the range and cycles. Related Reading: Bitcoin 5TH Wave Is Not Over Yet, And Price Could Still Crash To $52,000; Analyst Warns When asked about a potential bottom for Bitcoin in this bear market, the expert trader said it’s more speculative because the idea of a bottom can change over time. However, he noted that BTC is bottoming now on shorter timeframes and that on the longest timeframes, it could still take a while. Severino also recently stated that he expects a maximum drawdown of around 72% for Bitcoin in this cycle, implying a bottom at around $34,000. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has also predicted that Bitcoin could drop to as low as $40,000 before it finds a bottom. Notably, BTC continues to struggle, suggesting it remains at risk of a deeper decline despite the recent relief rally to $70,000. In an X post, on-chain analytics platform Glassnode noted that profit-taking continues to absorb momentum at the $70,000 threshold. The platform added that this pattern is consistent with a thin-liquidity regime, in which even modest realization events are sufficient to suppress recovery attempts. How BTC Could Drop To $30,000 In This Bear Market Crypto analyst Willy Woo stated that Bitcoin has only ever existed in a secular global macro bull market between 2009 and 2026. He warned that if the global macro breaks down, then the $30,000 level is the fallback level of support. The analyst highlighted $16,000 as the final line to maintain BTC’s bull trend. Related Reading: Elliot Wave Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Will Crash In Final Move, What’s The Target? However, Willy Woo believes $45,000 would be a typical bear-market bottom for Bitcoin. He noted that this bearish sell-off by investors appears to have been exhausted, which may allow the price to consolidate sideways for a month and possibly rebound to the mid $70,000 range. However, this level would likely be rejected. The analyst explained that this is because the broader regime is heavily bearish, with both spot and futures liquidity deteriorating. Willy Woo predicts that Q4 would be a good time for the end of the bearish trend and that Q1 or Q2 2027 would be an appropriate time for bullish momentum to return. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $67,800, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Mixed fourth quarter results highlight divergence between AI expansion plays and margin pressure.
The inflows coincide with a rebound in the Coinbase Premium index, signaling renewed U.S. demand.
Following the Bitcoin price crash toward $60,000 in early February, the question on the lips of every investor is when the bleed will end. To this end, a number of analysts have shared their expectations and predictions for where the Bitcoin bottom might be. Some have posited that the worst is over, while others have suggested that there are still more crashes to come. Following the latter trend, crypto analyst Plan C has shared why they believe the Bitcoin price has finally reached a bottom. Bitcoin 80-90% Crash Not Possible This Time Around In previous cycles, when the Bitcoin market had gone from a bull run to a bear market, there have been varying degrees of crashes that were experienced before the bottom was established. Over the last few bear markets, these have been around 80-90% crashes, often spurred by major events surrounding the market. Following this trend, expectations remain that Bitcoin might also see a similar crash, which would mean that the bear market is far from over. However, crypto analyst Plan C has combated this idea, as he believes that bitcoin will not repeat the exact same trend seen before. Related Reading: XRP Price Turns Completely Bearish, But Is A Crash To $1 Still Possible? Instead of the 80-90% crash that is expected to put Bitcoin somewhere around the $25,000-$30,000 range, the analyst says that Bitcoin will only crash 50-60% this cycle. If this is correct, it would mean that Bitcoin is not far from registering a bottom at this point. Going by this, his forecast, this would put the Bitcoin price bottom somewhere between $50,000 and $63,000. Given that the BTC price had previously fallen below $63,000, it means that the bottom might be in, or close to it. Such a deviation would mean that Bitcoin would no longer be following the established 4-year cycle trend. This is not a new theory, as analysts in the past have suggested that the digital asset began deviating from the 4-year cycle when it hit a new all-time high back in early 2024, before the halving. This was triggered by institutional entry through Spot Bitcoin ETFs, bringing about a new wave of bull runs. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Lows: Analyst Says We’re Doomed If This Happen While predictions continue to fly around the crypto community and speculations about what price Bitcoin will bottom at, it remains a matter of time to see what eventually happens. For now, the bulls continue to put up a fight in a bid to send the price above $70,000 again. But sentiment remains firmly negative as the Fear & Greed Index continues to sit in Extreme Fear. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
Market participants with long-term vision are buying downside protection.
Bitcoin is finding near-term relief after a sharp rebound toward the $70,000 level, offering temporary optimism following weeks of sustained pressure. The move has improved short-term momentum and eased immediate downside risk. However, the broader market remains characterized by indecision, as many analysts argue that this advance may represent a relief rally within a larger corrective structure rather than the start of a renewed bull phase. Related Reading: Digital Gold Is Dead: The Institutional Architecture Binding Bitcoin To The Nasdaq In The 2026 Downturn According to analysis from XWIN Research Japan, while price has recovered meaningfully from recent lows, underlying derivatives data suggest caution. Open Interest has fallen significantly from prior cycle highs, reflecting an extensive deleveraging process across futures markets. Importantly, the recent price decline occurred alongside contracting Open Interest, indicating that forced liquidations and derivatives-driven position unwinds were primary drivers of the selloff rather than sustained spot distribution. Such resets can be constructive, as they reduce excessive leverage and stabilize funding conditions. Nonetheless, a cleaner derivatives landscape does not automatically translate into fresh structural demand. Without clear evidence of renewed capital inflows or expanding spot participation, the current rebound may remain vulnerable to renewed volatility. Muted Exchange Flows Suggest Stabilization, Not Yet Structural Strength Recent exchange flow data adds nuance to Bitcoin’s current recovery phase. Binance’s Fund Flow Ratio remains subdued near 0.012, indicating that inflows relative to total BTC reserves on the platform are limited. In practical terms, this suggests that immediate sell-side pressure has not intensified, even during the recent move toward the mid-$60K region. The absence of a spike in this metric implies that investors are not rushing to transfer coins to exchanges in panic, which typically accompanies more aggressive distribution phases. However, low inflows should not automatically be interpreted as accumulation. The medium-term trend in the ratio’s moving averages continues to drift downward, indicating that sustained structural demand has yet to reassert itself. Markets can stabilize without transitioning directly into expansion, particularly when liquidity conditions remain cautious. Additional context from derivatives positioning reinforces this ambiguity. With leverage still relatively compressed, upward price movements can disproportionately trigger short liquidations, generating rallies driven more by position unwinds than fresh capital deployment. This type of rebound often improves sentiment temporarily but may lack durability without stronger spot participation. Overall, Bitcoin appears to be transitioning from active selling toward stabilization. Confirmation of a genuine bullish reversal will likely require consistent inflows, improving liquidity, and clearer evidence of renewed investor demand. Related Reading: How Vitalik Buterin’s 11,422 ETH Liquidation Is Testing Ethereum’s Bear Market Absorption – Details Bitcoin Tests Support After Sharp Correction Bitcoin remains under pressure following a pronounced correction from its recent highs, with price currently stabilizing near the $68,000 region. The weekly structure shows a clear loss of upward momentum after rejection around the $110K–$120K zone, followed by a decisive breakdown below the 50-week and 100-week moving averages. This shift typically signals weakening intermediate trend strength rather than simple short-term volatility. Price is now hovering close to the 200-week moving average, historically a critical structural support during transitional market phases. Holding this level could help stabilize sentiment and potentially define a medium-term floor. However, a sustained breakdown below it would likely increase downside risk, as it would confirm deterioration in long-term trend structure. Related Reading: The $33 Billion Drain: Bitcoin Realized Cap Craters as Capital Abandons the Network for a Second Month Volume dynamics also warrant attention. The recent selloff occurred with elevated activity compared with preceding consolidation phases, suggesting that distribution — not merely thin liquidity — contributed to the decline. That said, volume has started to moderate as price consolidates, indicating reduced urgency among sellers. Bitcoin appears to be transitioning into a defensive consolidation phase. Recovery above the shorter moving averages would be required to restore bullish momentum, while failure to hold current support could extend the corrective cycle further. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin spot trading activity has fallen to its weakest level of the year even as a fresh CryptoQuant signal suggests one important pocket of selling pressure may be starting to fade. Darkfost, a contributor at CryptoQuant, said February is on pace to finish as the month with the lowest Bitcoin spot volumes since the start of 2024. He tied that slowdown to a broader retreat in risk appetite as traders pull back from directional exposure and wait for firmer macro or technical confirmation. “February is on track to close as the month with the lowest Bitcoin spot trading volumes since the beginning of 2024. This comes alongside BTC’s price revisiting levels last seen in 2024 as well,” Darkfost wrote on X. “The current climate of uncertainty surrounding BTC has pushed investors toward a more defensive stance, resulting in a marked reduction in risk-taking.” Bitcoin Liquidity Keeps Thinning Out The scale of the slowdown is visible across the major venues. Darkfost said Binance still leads by a wide margin with nearly $75 billion in February spot volume, ahead of Gate.io at $25 billion and Bybit at $20 billion. Even so, that dominance has not insulated Binance from the broader contraction. Related Reading: Bitcoin Yet To See Meaningful Capital Return, Glassnode Says Since Bitcoin’s last all-time high in October, monthly spot volumes have been roughly cut in half across the largest exchanges, according to the post. Binance fell from $198 billion to $75 billion, Gate.io from $53 billion to $25 billion, and Bybit from $41 billion to $20 billion. Rather than an exchange-specific issue, Darkfost framed the move as a market-wide pullback in participation. He also linked the deterioration in liquidity to the aftermath of the Oct. 10 shock, when open interest dropped by more than 70,000 BTC, or roughly $8 billion, in a sharp reset of leveraged exposure. In his telling, that event did not just hit derivatives positioning. It appears to have accelerated a broader disengagement from crypto trading activity. “This phase of disengagement is directly reflected in the steady decline in spot trading volumes observed across major exchanges,” Darkfost wrote. “This dynamic points to a generalized trend affecting all major exchanges.” That matters because spot flows tend to carry more weight when traders are looking for evidence of durable demand rather than fast-moving leverage. A recovery built on stronger spot participation generally looks sturdier than one driven mainly by derivatives. Coinbase Pressure Shows Signs Of Easing Against that weak backdrop, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju pointed to a more constructive short-term signal: “Selling pressure on Coinbase is easing.” The chart shows the Coinbase Premium Index moving back into positive territory after spending most of the time in February below zero (with a few exceptions). By the latest reading on the chart, the premium had recovered to roughly 0.006 while Bitcoin traded near $68,300. This suggests the discount on Coinbase relative to offshore venues has narrowed, easing one sign of US-led sell pressure. Related Reading: 2 Bitcoin Price Levels Could Decide What Happens Next, Coinbase Says That does not contradict Darkfost’s broader caution. If anything, the two signals fit together. Spot liquidity remains thin and the market is still operating in a low-conviction environment, but one of the more closely watched measures of immediate selling intensity is no longer deteriorating. Darkfost was explicit about what would need to change for the picture to improve in a more meaningful way. “As it stands, this simultaneous contraction in spot volumes reflects a structurally cautious market phase, where participants prioritize capital preservation over directional exposure while awaiting clearer macroeconomic or technical signals. For a bullish recovery to materialize, or for a durable bottom to form, stronger spot volume support will be essential.” For now, that leaves Bitcoin in a familiar late-cycle holding pattern: sellers may be backing off on Coinbase, but without a broader return of spot demand, the market still lacks the depth that usually underpins a stronger move. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $68,153. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is now inching towards $70,000, but there is enough to worry about around $64,000. Crypto analyst Tara expressed concern that Bitcoin’s fifth wave may not be complete, with a prediction that further downside could still be ahead. In a recent post on X, the analyst noted that the current move could either be the start or the final stretch of a fifth wave decline, and there’s still a possibility of the Bitcoin price falling to as low as $52,000. Double Bottom Support At $59,900 And $60,500 Technical analysis done by crypto analyst Tara shows that Bitcoin has built a major support around the $59,900 to $60,500 range. This area is based on prior swing lows and a visible double bottom formation on the 4-hour candlestick price chart. It also coincides with deeper Fibonacci retracement levels projected from above $70,000. Related Reading: Elliot Wave Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Will Crash In Final Move, What’s The Target? According to the analyst, Bitcoin could see a strong reaction if the price were to fall to that region. A bounce from this support could drive the Bitcoin price back to $64,400, which would then be tested as resistance instead of support. However, such a rebound may only be temporary. If the macro fifth wave structure continues to play out, the market could still be setting up for one final push lower after that retest. According to Tara’s wave interpretation, this final push lower could extend to as low as $52,000. This level is not yet fixed and will be remeasured as price action develops, but it represents a possible completion zone for the broader fifth wave. It is important to note that Bitcoin actually managed to hold above $60,000 throughout February, so therefore, the outlook to $52,000 is a worst-case scenario. Interestingly, the Relative Strength Index indicator on the 4-hour timeframe is trending lower and approaching oversold territory. Tara advised traders to watch for bullish divergence on the RSI during the next drop. A bullish divergence on the RSI could be the first sign of the end of the corrective structure. Bitcoin Might Register Higher Support At $64,000 Over the past few weeks, the $64,000 region has stood out as a decisive pivot for Bitcoin, repeatedly flipping between support and resistance depending on the direction of price. In a separate update, Tara highlighted that Bitcoin recently backtested the macro 0.5 Fibonacci level at $64,400 as resistance before attempting to push higher. Related Reading: Here’s What’s Driving The Bitcoin Price Crash Toward $60,0000 Reclaiming $64,000 would be an important step toward reversing the current bearish macro trend. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $68,220, up 4% over the past 24 hours. Even so, there is still a risk of a pullback. A drop back below $64,000 would weaken the short-term recovery and could expose the prior swing low at $60,500. On the flip side, bullish momentum would be confirmed if Bitcoin breaks above $70,000. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
The bitcoin miner inked a deal with investment firm Starwood to convert and expand select facilities to serve data center needs for AI.
A single large sell order triggered a 30% flash crash on decentralized perp exchange Lighter even as bitcoin was climbing elsewhere.
A prominent market commentator has projected that the Bitcoin price could climb as high as $500,000, citing the reappearance of a long-observed moving average ribbon pattern on the monthly chart. The forecast, shared by Egrag Crypto on X, ties price structure to specific time windows in 2026 and 2028, arguing that technical alignment is outweighing short-term market narratives.pl Bitcoin Price Ribbon Setup Signals Expansion Phase At the center of the $500,000 prediction is the reformation of a multi-layer moving average ribbon on the one-month timeframe. The chart provided by the analyst shows the 33 EMA, 66 MA, 80 EMA, and 100 EMA compressing and beginning to expand in a configuration that has historically marked major cycle transitions. Related Reading: Pundit Gives Reasons Why XRP Price Will Hit $10 In 2026 This structure is not presented in isolation. In previous cycles, similar ribbon compressions were followed by decisive impulsive advances. The analyst points to an earlier period on the chart when the price consolidated within the ribbon before accelerating sharply upward, forming a pattern that now appears to be repeating. Because this setup mirrors prior cycle behavior, he characterizes it as a fractal, indicating structural similarity across different market phases. The ribbon’s position relative to current price action reinforces the broader thesis. Bitcoin remains structurally above the layered averages, a condition that in earlier cycles preceded sustained upside rather than distribution. When price reclaimed and held above this cluster in the past, expansion phases followed. Based on those historical expansion multiples, the analyst outlines an intermediate target near $150,000 and extends the upper boundary of the move toward $500,000. This framework deliberately shifts focus away from sentiment-driven fluctuations. Instead, the moving averages are treated as objective markers of where Bitcoin stands within its long-term cycle, forming the analytical foundation for the half-million-dollar projection. Timing Window Points To 2026 And Late 2028 Alignment Building on the structural case, the forecast also incorporates a defined timeline. The chart highlights October 2026 as a key waypoint, aligning with a potential continuation phase if the emerging ribbon fractal develops in line with historical precedent. Beyond that initial window, a second period is identified around the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2028. The analyst references election cycles as a contextual factor, suggesting that macro narrative and technical structure could converge during that timeframe. Related Reading: The Multi-Year XRP Bull Market That Could Change Everything Forever The projected path on the chart reflects this staged process. Rather than a single vertical surge, it outlines a series of consolidations followed by accelerations, echoing previous cycles before peak expansion. By integrating price structure with calendar timing, the projection frames the $500,000 target as the culmination of a repeatable cyclical pattern. In this context, the ribbon fractal is positioned not as speculative optimism, but as the structural roadmap underpinning the analyst’s expectation of a potential surge toward half a million dollars. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
The declines are coming as the Nasdaq tumbles nearly 2%, led by a post-earnings selloff in Nvidia.
The idea that Jane Street is single-handedly the reason why Bitcoin is not trading at $150,000 is the wrong frame, according to ProCap CIO and Bitwise advisor Jeff Park. In a X thread February 25, Park argued that the real issue is not one firm, but a structural feature of the US spot Bitcoin ETF system that gives all authorized participants unusual flexibility in how they hedge and settle trades. Is Jane Street Suppressing Bitcoin? Park’s core point is that the market has turned a question about Jane Street into a question about the ETF plumbing itself. On IBIT alone, he noted, the authorized participant roster includes Jane Street Capital, JPMorgan, Macquarie, Virtu Americas, Goldman Sachs, Citadel Securities, Citigroup, UBS and ABN AMRO. In his telling, that matters because APs are not ordinary short sellers. “The question deserves a precise answer—and the most important thing to understand upfront is that it is not really a question about Jane Street,” Park wrote. “It is a question about a structural feature of the Bitcoin ETF architecture that applies equally to every Authorized Participant in the ecosystem.” He added that the role of those institutions is “genuinely misunderstood, even amongst seasoned industry veterans.” The mechanism Park focused on is the AP exemption under Regulation SHO. In standard short selling, traders generally need to locate shares before shorting and face borrowing costs that create pressure to close the trade. APs, Park argued, sit in a different category because their creation and redemption rights effectively let them manufacture ETF shares without those same frictions. Related Reading: Bitcoin Yet To See Meaningful Capital Return, Glassnode Says “The practical consequence is significant: any AP can manufacture shares at will—no borrow cost, no capital conventionally tied up against the short, and no hard deadline to close the position beyond what is commercially reasonable,” he wrote. “This is the grey window: a regulatory carve-out designed for orderly ETF market-making that is, structurally speaking, indistinguishable from a regulatory arbitrage with unmatched duration.” That framing is important because Park is not claiming APs can simply press Bitcoin lower forever. His argument is narrower and more structural. If an AP is short IBIT and chooses to hedge with CME Bitcoin futures rather than buying spot BTC, then the normal arbitrage pathway that would force spot purchases becomes weaker. In that setup, the hedge can remain economically tight enough for market-making purposes while bypassing immediate spot demand. “The critical implication: if the hedge is futures rather than spot, the spot was never bought,” Park wrote. “The gap cannot close via the natural arb mechanism because the natural arb buyer chose not to buy spot.” He also cautioned that the separation is not frictionless, since basis traders work to keep futures and spot aligned, but said the basis risk becomes more meaningful in periods of stress. The recent shift to in-kind creations and redemptions, in Park’s view, removes another constraint that previously pushed activity into the spot market. Under the earlier cash-only model, APs had to deliver cash, which the fund’s custodian then used to buy Bitcoin. That created what Park called a “structural governor” because spot buying was a mechanical byproduct of creations. In-kind transfers change that. APs can now source Bitcoin directly, at times and from counterparties of their choosing, including OTC desks and negotiated transactions that may minimize visible market impact. Related Reading: 2 Bitcoin Price Levels Could Decide What Happens Next, Coinbase Says Even so, Park stopped short of endorsing outright market suppression claims. “The short answer is that no AP explicitly suppresses Bitcoin price,” he wrote. “What the AP structure can suppress is the integrity of the price discovery mechanism itself. Those are not the same thing—but the second is arguably more consequential than the first.” Other Experts Agree Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence Eric Balchunas commented: “The bogeyman is gone.. That’s the vibe rn on CT and in the price action today. I get it too, that big daily dump [at 10am] seemed to kill every rally and everyone’s spirit. Is eliminating it enough for a sustained rebound? I guess we’ll find out.” That distinction drew pushback. Monad founder Keone Hon said the theory does not hold up because a short futures hedge implies someone else is short futures and, on average, must hedge elsewhere, preserving the market-wide delta balance. Dave Weisberger also argued the claim does not hold “over any substantial time frame,” noting that futures converge to spot at expiry. Park did not dispute the accounting identity. What he disputed was whether that identity settles the practical question of how long trades can persist inside the system’s regulatory carve-outs. “To be clear, I don’t subscribe to the conspiracy theory that APs suppress price,” he wrote. “The conspiracy theory that I subscribe to, if there is one to be had, is that with infinite duration at zero cost of carry, funny things can happen.” Leading on-chain analyst James “Checkmate” Check agreed: “Jane Street didn’t suppress the Bitcoin price folks. HODLers all did. It’s just not that hard, stop summoning your inner salty goldbug but blaming manipulators. People. Sold. A. Fucktonne. Of. Spot. Bitcoin.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $67,883. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com