The ongoing Bitcoin price play out leading into a bear market is now one of the most pressing questions in the crypto industry. Right now, Bitcoin is trading between $87,700 and $88,000, which is a 30% drop from the all-time high it reached in October 2025. Price action alone often leaves room for debate, but on-chain data is beginning to offer clearer guidance. Notably, analysis from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin’s internal market structure is shifting in a way that aligns more closely with early-stage bear market conditions. BCMI Drops Below Equilibrium The important bear market signal is from Bitcoin’s Combined Market Index, or BCMI, which is a composite indicator that blends price behavior with on-chain momentum. According to Woo Minkyu, a verified analyst on the CryptoQuant platform, Bitcoin’s BCMI returned to the 0.5 level in October. This was initially interpreted as a cooling phase rather than a definitive cycle top. At the time, the assumption was that Bitcoin was consolidating after an extended rally. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Remains Stuck Inside This Range, But A Breakout Could Follow However, that view has weakened with the deterioration of market conditions. Particularly, Bitcoin’s price action has declined materially since late October, and the BCMI has fallen in tandem with the price. This joint decline suggests the market has reset not only through time but also through valuation and participation. As shown on the chart below, the BCMI has now slipped below its equilibrium zone, and this is a development that is known to coincide with transitions into bearish phases, where rallies tend to be capped, and downside risks increase. A closer look at prior Bitcoin cycles adds more context to the current setup. In both 2019 and 2023, meaningful cycle bottoms formed only after BCMI compressed into the 0.25 to 0.35 range. Those levels reflected deep sentiment compression, washed-out positioning, and a structural reset of the market. At current readings, Bitcoin’s Combined Market Index is less than 0.4. This reading is below equilibrium but still well above a bottom zone. This opens the possibility that the market is transitioning into a bear phase, not just experiencing a pullback. According to the analyst, a more durable bottom may only form if history repeats itself and the BCMI revisits 2019-2023 levels. Weak Sentiment Adds To Bear Market Evidence Market sentiment is also supporting the idea that Bitcoin is moving deeper into a bearish phase. Optimism has been really scarce in recent weeks, with traders showing little confidence that the price has found a sustainable floor. CoinMarketCap’s Crypto Fear and Greed Index is currently posting a reading of 28, which places sentiment firmly in the Fear zone. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Bull And Bear Cases That Crypto Traders Should Know About This poor sentiment backdrop has been affirmed by industry commentary. For instance, Changpeng Zhao recently noted that many investors only wish they had bought Bitcoin early when prices were already at all-time highs. In practice, those early accumulations happened during periods like the present one, when fear, uncertainty, and doubt dominate market psychology. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
As Bitcoin (BTC) struggles to maintain its position below the $90,000 threshold, market sentiment appears to be shifting toward the possibility of a new bear market. Notably, analyst Ali Martinez has drawn comparisons with historical market cycles to forecast Bitcoin’s trajectory. Bitcoin Market Patterns In a recent social media post, Martinez highlighted a recurring pattern that suggests it typically takes around 1,064 days for Bitcoin to transition from a market bottom to a market top, followed by approximately 364 days from a market peak back to the next bottom. Related Reading: Ethereum Fails To Surpass $3,000: Predictions For The Final Days Of The Year In the first cycle, the market bottomed out in January 2015 and reached its peak in December 2017, exactly 1,064 days later. This was followed by a bear market that lasted 364 days, culminating in the bottom in December 2018. The second cycle mirrored this pattern: the market bottomed in December 2018 and reached its apex in November 2021, again over a span of 1,064 days. Subsequently, another downturn followed, leading to a bottom in November 2022, when Bitcoin traded around $15,500. Next Bottom At $37,500? Currently, the analyst highlights that the market is in what could be the third cycle, having witnessed a market bottom in November 2022 and a current peak above $126,000 reached back in October. Applying the historical patterns of these cycles, it suggests that Bitcoin is now within the 364-day correction window, indicating a potential bottom could materialize around October 2026 — approximately 288 days from now. Related Reading: Altcoin Struggles: What The Future Holds And The Potential For A 2026 Revival Examining past bear markets offers additional context for projecting potential downside. The bear market from 2017 to 2018 saw a correction of approximately 84%, while the market decline from 2021 to 2022 experienced a retracement of roughly 77%. Averaging these two corrections, Martinez suggests an expected retracement of around 80%, positioning Bitcoin’s next market bottom at around $37,500. Currently, the market’s leading cryptocurrency is trading slightly above the $88,290 mark, which is a 30% gap from the current peak. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Data of the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index suggests the average investor sentiment has now been inside the extreme fear zone for 13 straight days. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Is Still Pointing At Extreme Fear The “Fear & Greed Index” refers to an indicator created by Alternative that tells us about the average sentiment shared by traders in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency markets. The index determines the sentiment by referring to the data of five factors: market cap dominance, trading volume, Google Trends, social sentiment, and volatility. It then represents it using a numeric scale that runs from zero to hundred. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Trading Near ‘Fair Value,’ Says On-Chain Model All values above 53 indicate the presence of a greed sentiment among the investors, while those below 47 suggest the dominance of fear. Levels lying between the two thresholds correspond to a net neutral mentality. Besides these three core regions, there are also two “extreme” zones in the Fear & Greed Index, known as the extreme fear and extreme greed. The former occurs at and below 25, while the latter occurs above 75. Now, here is how the sentiment among investors in the current Bitcoin market is, according to the Fear & Greed Index: As is visible above, the majority sentiment in the cryptocurrency sector is one of extreme fear at the moment, with the indicator sitting at a value of 23. The despair among the investors isn’t new, as the index has, in fact, remained in this region for the last couple of weeks. As displayed in the chart, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has indicated extreme fear for 13 consecutive days now, underscoring the FUD that has been present in the market. If history is anything to go by, though, the extremely fearful sentiment may not actually be such a bad sign for BTC and other cryptocurrencies. Often, digital asset markets tend to move in a direction that goes contrary to the crowd’s belief. This probability of an opposite move generally becomes the strongest inside the extreme sentiment zones, with major tops and bottoms historically forming while the index has been in the respective region. The price low in November, which has acted as the bottom for Bitcoin so far, also occurred alongside an extended stay inside the extreme fear territory. Clearly, though, that extreme fear streak wasn’t enough to reignite sustained bullish momentum for BTC, as the asset has only consolidated since then. Related Reading: When Will Bitcoin Bottom? History Points To October 2026, Says Analyst As such, it only remains to be seen whether the latest stay inside extreme fear will be able to change that or if it will be a while before the bottom is reached in the current cycle. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $87,500, unchanged from one week ago. Featured image from Dall-E, Alternative.me, chart from TradingView.com
Five years of CME futures data shows where bitcoin has, and has not, built meaningful price support.
Bitcoin whale deposits to Binance fell sharply in December, a shift CryptoQuant framed as a constructive near-term signal because it implies less immediate sell-side supply moving onto the market’s biggest exchange venue. Bitcoin Selling Pressure Is Fading For Now CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost wrote on Dec. 24 that “the latest data shows a clear decline in Bitcoin inflows to Binance coming from whales over the month of December.” He said monthly whale inflows dropped from roughly $7.88 billion to $3.86 billion, “effectively being halved within just a few weeks,” calling it “a significant slowdown in BTC deposits to Binance by the largest holders.” The bullish read is mostly mechanical. Exchange inflows are not the same thing as selling, but they are a prerequisite for selling at scale, and Binance remains the dominant exchange in exchange-related flows in CryptoQuant’s framing. Darkfost put it plainly: “In the current environment, the observed trend remains constructive. Binance continues to capture the largest share of exchange-related flows. When inflows from influential participants such as whales decline on this platform, it generally suggests a reduction in their selling pressure.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Trading Near ‘Fair Value,’ Says On-Chain Model He also cautioned that a downtrend in aggregate deposits does not eliminate the risk of sudden, market-moving transfers. “That said, this broader trend does not rule out the occurrence of occasional significant movements,” Darkfost wrote. “Some inflows can still impact the market, even if they remain relatively isolated.” As an example, he pointed to a recent $466 million spike across the 100 BTC to 10,000 BTC cohorts, alongside more than $435 million in inflows coming specifically from the 1,000 to 10,000 BTC range. Related Reading: The Macro Conditions For Bitcoin In 2026: Analyst Breaks Them Down Those bursts matter because they can reintroduce volatility even if the baseline is calmer. “These sudden movements are a reminder that whales retain the ability to influence volatility at any time, even within a broader slowdown,” Darkfost said, adding that when large holders “move thousands of BTC in single transactions,” they can trigger sharp moves “whether through sudden volatility spikes or deeper corrections, depending on the volumes deposited and potentially sold.” BTC Whale Capitulation On Pause A separate CryptoQuant update on Dec. 23 echoed the idea that the most acute stress may have eased. “Whale Capitulation on Pause,” the firm wrote, saying realized losses from “new whales” “significantly impacted the price drop from $124K to $84K.” Since the recent low, CryptoQuant said, those realized losses “have declined and are now flat.” Put together, the message is that one key source of near-term supply pressure,large deposits onto Binance,has cooled, while the realized-loss impulse tied to “new whales” is no longer intensifying. The caveat is the same one Darkfost emphasized: the market can look quiet in aggregate and still get rattled by a handful of large deposits if whales decide to move size again. At press time, BTC traded at $87,792. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
An on-chain pricing model for Bitcoin suggests that the cryptocurrency is currently neither overvalued nor undervalued, trading right around its “fair value.” Bitcoin Is Trading Near Its On-Chain Fair Value In a new post on X, cycle analyst Root has shared an update on how Bitcoin is looking from the perspective of the On-chain Value Map. This BTC valuation model was created by Root using three on-chain metrics: Realized Cap, Liquid Supply, and Coin Days Destroyed. Related Reading: XRP Retail Turns Fearful Again—A Classic Contrarian Setup? First, the “Realized Cap” is a capitalization model that calculates the cryptocurrency’s total value by assuming that the value of each token in circulation is equal to the spot price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain. In simple terms, what this indicator reflects is the amount of capital that the investors as a whole used to purchase the BTC supply. The second metric, the “Liquid Supply,” tracks the part of the BTC supply that’s held by investors who often move their coins. Basically, this is the supply that’s likely to return back into circulation, rather than being “HODL’d” Finally, the “Coin Days Destroyed” (CDD) measures the number of coin days being reset across the network. A “coin day” is a quantity that 1 BTC accumulates after 1 day of dormancy. When a token carrying some number of coin days is transacted, its coin days counter resets back to zero, and the coin days that it was holding are said to be “destroyed.” The CDD is useful for spotting periods where long-term holders are participating in distribution. These diamond hands hold for long spans, so they naturally accumulate a large amount of coin days, which, when destroyed, produce a spike in the CDD. Now, here is the chart for the On-chain Value Map shared by Root, which combines the data of all these Bitcoin indicators to define a few different valuation levels: As displayed in the above graph, Bitcoin spiked above the “overvalued” level as it set its all-time high (ATH) back in October. Since then, the cryptocurrency has notably declined, with its price returning to the level corresponding to “fair value” on the model. Related Reading: Bitcoin Perps Heat Up Again As Leveraged Longs Rise Thus, it would appear that, at least from the perspective of the On-chain Value Map, the asset is currently neither undervalued nor overvalued, but pretty much neutral. Given this trend, it remains to be seen which direction the coin will head from here. BTC Price Bitcoin has been in a phase of consolidation since its low in November, but its price hasn’t diverged much from the On-chain Value Map’s fair value during this period. Currently, it’s trading around $87,600. Featured image from Dall-E, BitcoinStrategyPlatform.com, chart from TradingView.com
An analyst has explained when Bitcoin could possibly reach a bottom, based on the historical pattern followed by its price across cycles. Bitcoin Has Tended To Take 364 Days From Major Tops To Bottoms In a new thread on X, analyst Ali Martinez has discussed about what history could hint about when Bitcoin might reach a bottom in the current cycle. “Bitcoin $BTC major cycles have followed a surprisingly consistent rhythm, both in timing and depth,” noted Martinez. Related Reading: XRP Retail Turns Fearful Again—A Classic Contrarian Setup? Below is a chart shared by the analyst that highlights some of the similarities that the last few BTC cycles have shared. As is visible in the graph, the quarterly price of Bitcoin has taken roughly 1,064 days to reach the top from the bottom of the previous bear market during the last three cycles. This is naturally assuming that the cryptocurrency’s high above $126,000 was the top for the current cycle. The distance from the top to the next bottom was also similar in the 2017 and 2021 cycles on the cryptocurrency’s quarterly chart, coming at about 364 days. “If this pattern holds, Bitcoin $BTC is now inside that 364-day correction window, which points to a potential bottom around October 2026,” explained Martinez. In the chart, the analyst has also highlighted a possible bottom target for Bitcoin, based on, once again, the pattern from the previous cycles. The 2018 bear market reached its low after a drawdown of 84.22% from the bull market top, while the 2022 bear involved a decline of 77.57%. Martinez has drawn a drawdown of 70% for the current cycle, which would put the price target at the $37,500 level. It now remains to be seen whether this cycle will follow a trajectory anything like the last cycles or if the asset will go a different direction this time around. The chart for the Bitcoin cycles is showcasing the long-term trend of the asset using its quarterly price, but what about the short-term direction? In another X post, the analyst has shared the 4-hour chart for BTC, highlighting a technical analysis (TA) pattern forming on a short scale. As displayed in the above chart, Bitcoin has potentially been following a Parallel Channel on its 4-hour price during the last few weeks. A Parallel Channel appears whenever an asset observes consolidation between two parallel trendlines, with the lower level acting as support and upper one as resistance. Related Reading: Bitcoin Perps Heat Up Again As Leveraged Longs Rise The cryptocurrency retested the lower line of this Parallel Channel last week, which led to a rebound as support held up. The asset has since returned to the middle zone of the pattern, suggesting there isn’t any clear bias in either direction right now. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $87,300, up 0.7% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
As the Bitcoin (BTC) price settles below the critical $90,000 support level, discussions about the potential onset of a new bear market are growing among experts and market analysts. The market’s leading cryptocurrency, currently trading at approximately $87,370, has experienced a decline of over 30% from its all-time high of more than $126,000, drawing comparisons to past market behaviors, particularly those witnessed in December 2021. Fractal Patterns Resurface Notably, on December 24, 2021, Bitcoin was valued at around $51,700, marking a local peak before it plummeted to $34,000 by January 24, 2022. This decline represented a significant 34% drop within just one month. Related Reading: This Friday’s Bitcoin Options Expiry Could Shake Up The Market: What To Look Out For An expert analyzing the current market dynamics has applied a fractal model derived from that previous sell-off to Bitcoin’s present price. According to this analysis, there is a potential trajectory that could see the cryptocurrency move toward the $70,000 mark in the coming days. The expert argues that given the current price action and current market conditions, this scenario is plausible and suggests an additional decline of about 20% for the Bitcoin price if a similar pattern unfolds. However, without clear direction, the question remains whether this situation will unfold into a recovery above key price levels or into an extended bear market heading into the first quarter of 2026. As such, perspectives among analysts vary widely. Expert Predicts ‘Bitcoin Supercycle’ Ahead CryptoKaleo, another figure on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), posits that the current market mirrors conditions seen in the fall of 2020. Both scenarios involved Bitcoin losing a critical support level that had been established in the wake of significant market corrections, leading to a “mini-bart” scenario where the price retraced nearly all of its previous gains, eventually finding a new base. During the recovery phase after the COVID-19 crash in 2020, traditional stocks, particularly in the tech sector, significantly outperformed Bitcoin, leading many to claim that the leading cryptocurrency was fading into irrelevance. Related Reading: These Five Key Drivers Could Boost XRP To $5 By 2026, Claims Top Analyst Today, as equities frequently reach new all-time highs, a similar narrative is emerging, with some asserting that Bitcoin has become stagnant and altcoins are lacking momentum. Despite this, CryptoKaleo remains optimistic, suggesting that the present situation does not conform to the typical four-year market cycle for the cryptocurrency. Instead of a prolonged bearish phase, he predicts that when Bitcoin reaches new all-time highs in 2026, it will usher in an exciting “supercycle,” characterized by prolonged upward trends, robust altcoin seasons, and a resurgence of retail interest in mainstream cryptocurrencies. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Ethereum’s Glamsterdam, Bitcoin and quantum computing, and new Eigenlayer governance proposal
The movement follows inflows into wallets tied to Trump Media, implying the company is actively managing its bitcoin position rather than leaving it static.
Macro trader plur daddy (@plur_daddy) argues bitcoin’s 2026 setup is less about crypto-specific catalysts and more about whether US liquidity conditions normalize after what he described as an unusually tight few months for risk. His central claim is that repo “plumbing” has been strained by a shortage of bank reserves as leverage in the economy grew faster than the Fed’s balance sheet, and that the resulting stress showed up in broader markets — “very choppy and rotational dynamics in equities” — alongside “a quite adverse environment for crypto.” Going into the new year, he expects a set of incremental shifts that could move conditions from tight back toward neutral, even if they do not create a new “loose” regime. 4 Macro Themes Will Be Crucial For Bitcoin The first lever is the Fed’s reserve management purchases (RMPs). “Since the Dec FOMC where they announced $40bn/mo in RMPs for 3 months (and an undefined lower amount thereafter), this liquidity has been flowing in. The Fed has already purchased $38bn of the first month’s allocation,” he wrote. “So far we haven’t seen a huge impact as this was being offset by year end liquidity factors as broker dealers close their books and reduce risk for the year end, but this should change.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Perps Heat Up Again As Leveraged Longs Rise He stresses that the program is meant to relieve funding pressure, not fuel a risk-on melt-up. “I’ll add in the disclaimer that this is not QE, this is a targeted tool to unblock a clogged pipe in the financial plumbing matrix, so don’t get too carried away by the impact this can have,” he wrote. “It can help shift a tight environment back to normal, but it will not shift a normal environment to loose.” On sizing, he calls it imprecise but meaningful: “Gauging the deficit is more of an art than science, but gut feeling it is probably around $100-200bn (dovetails with the announced RMP size), so 1 month of RMPs is not going to plug the whole thing, but it should have a meaningful impact.” Second is fiscal incrementality. He expects a modest re-widening in the deficit: “My work suggests an expansion of $12-15bn/mo starting on Jan 1 from the OBBBA impacts,” he said, adding, “We are in a fiscal dominance regime.” The analyst ties recent softness to the opposite impulse, arguing deficit contraction — which he attributes to tariffs — has weighed on markets, and that even a partial reversal matters: “$12-15bn/mo is not enough to overcome the tariff impacts, but it is incremental vs. Nov/Dec, and I believe incrementality is what matters.” He also flags the eSLR change effective Jan. 1 for early adopters as a smaller tailwind, with broader banking deregulation “on deck for the 2026.” Third is disinflation and the policy path. He points to falling market-based inflation expectations, citing the one-year inflation swap, and frames the mix as a “goldilocks setup.” “The disinflationary environment creates a goldilocks setup,” he wrote. “The economy is weak but not too weak, and softer inflation gives the Fed air cover to keep cutting.” He notes markets are currently conservative — “a Jan cut at only 13%” and “a total of 2 cuts priced into the curve for the whole year” — then lays out his own baseline: “I’d expect something closer to 4 cuts assuming orthodox policy, and more than that with a Trump takeover.” Related Reading: Why Isn’t Bitcoin Going Up? Jeff Park Explains What’s Missing Finally, he argues politics could matter via the Fed chair. “Trump will ultimately value loyalty over all,” he wrote, because he believes Trump felt “betrayed by Powell.” He adds: “The Fed Chair is especially important on this dimension, since Trump lacks the authority to fire them, unlike other positions.” In his view, Kevin Hassett is “very likely” given that relationship. He also sketches market sensitivity: “Gold in particular will benefit from a Hassett nomination. Equities might have some heartburn initially but also think they will ultimately go up.” For bitcoin, his conclusion is cautious but directionally constructive if these macro pieces line up. “In terms of crypto, in theory all of this should benefit it,” he wrote. “I probably won’t play it, as I favor gold here, and crypto is increasingly a tough bet when you factor in the drains on mental capital.” Still, he leaves a timing tell: “However, there is a case to be made that if you were going to be bullish, somewhere around here is the time. Don’t be a hero, look for shifts in character and a positive response as liquidity conditions improve.” At press time, BTC traded at $87,053. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Measured against U.S. money supply, gold is back at levels that marked major historical peaks, while bitcoin retraces toward a key cycle floor.
A year-end options expiry for bitcoin is suppressing volatility just as macro and risk-asset positioning turns supportive for a higher price.
As the year comes to a close, Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching a pivotal moment that could lead to increased market volatility. This Friday, December 26, more than $23 billion worth of Bitcoin options are set to expire, marking the largest options expiration in the cryptocurrency’s history. How $23 Billion Roll-Off May Impact Bitcoin Prices Market expert NoLimit took to social media platform X (formerly Twitter) to elucidate the significance of this event. Understanding options expiration is crucial to grasping its potential impact on the market. In the expert’s words, options are leveraged bets on the future price of Bitcoin: call options anticipate an increase in price, while put options anticipate a decrease. When these options expire, one of two things happens: either they expire worthless, or they trigger hedging actions that necessitate buying or selling in the spot market. Related Reading: XRP Price Forecasts For 2026 Unveiled By AI Simulation: Should Investors Remain Bullish? With a massive $23.6 billion worth of Bitcoin options rolling off at once, a substantial amount of risk is being removed from dealer books in a single day. This clearing of positions is a primary driver of volatility. For perspective, previous year-end expiries have been significantly smaller: around $6 billion in 2021, $2.4 billion in 2022, $11 billion in 2023, and $19.8 billion in 2024. The sheer scale of this upcoming expiry highlights a shift in the market landscape, indicating that it is now largely shaped by institutional investors rather than retail traders. The specificity of this Friday is particularly noteworthy. Dealers have strategically hedged their positions around key Bitcoin price levels, and as the options expiry arrives, these hedges will be unwound. This process could lead to sharp price movements in either direction, especially given the current low-liquidity conditions in the market. The holiday season has resulted in diminished trading volume, which means that individual orders can impact prices more dramatically—potentially leading to violent price swings. Key Price Ranges Adding to the complexity, fellow market analyst MartyParty highlighted that significant gamma exposure is clustered in critical price ranges, particularly between $86,000 and $110,000. Estimates suggest that high gamma—around $238 million or more in notional sensitivity—will expire, amplifying volatility through delta-hedging flows as Friday approaches. The maximum pain point, where Bitcoin option sellers face the greatest loss, is pegged at $96,000. Related Reading: New Crypto Tax Proposal: Bipartisan House Duo Pushes For Stablecoin Safe Harbor Furthermore, analysts from CryptoQuant weighed in on the situation, noting that while downside positioning has eased with the open interest in $85,000 puts declining, there remains a notable presence of $100,000 Bitcoin calls. This suggests a cautious but persistent optimism for a potential “Santa rally,” according to the analysts. The risk reversals also indicate a softening of bearish sentiment as Bitcoin’s spot price stabilizes. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $87,292, having recorded a loss of 2.5% in the past 24 hours and a 30% gap between the current trading price and the record high. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is on track to close the year in negative territory, a development that has reinforced growing concerns among analysts who are increasingly positioning for a potential bear market ahead. After failing to sustain momentum above key psychological and technical levels, market sentiment has shifted toward caution, with investors closely monitoring liquidity behavior and exchange flows for early signals of regime change. Related Reading: The Gold-to-Bitcoin Rotation Narrative Gains Strength: A Data-Driven Review Recent analysis from Arab Chain, based on CryptoQuant’s Exchange Inflow Value (7-day cumulative) metric, highlights a notable divergence in liquidity patterns between major exchanges. The data aggregates Bitcoin and Ethereum inflows, providing a broader view of risk positioning across the two largest crypto assets. On November 24, when Bitcoin was trading around $88,438, Coinbase recorded seven-day cumulative inflows totaling approximately $21.0 billion. In contrast, Binance saw lower, though still significant, inflows near $15.3 billion. What stands out is that these elevated inflows occurred while prices were already well below prior highs. Rather than signaling aggressive accumulation, the data points to increased exchange activity consistent with portfolio rebalancing, hedging, or preparation for potential distribution. Exchange Inflows Signal Liquidity Tightening Despite Stable Bitcoin Prices By December 21, Bitcoin was trading near $88,635. Only marginally higher than late-November levels and still locked within a narrow consolidation range. While price action showed little progress, exchange flow data pointed to a notable shift in market conditions. Updated on-chain figures indicate that liquidity entering major trading venues declined sharply over the span of just a few weeks, underscoring a cooling in overall market activity. Coinbase, often used as a proxy for institutional and US-based flows, saw seven-day cumulative inflows fall to roughly $7.8 billion. That represents a steep drop of more than 60% compared with inflow levels observed in late November. Binance also experienced a contraction, but the decline was materially less severe, with inflows totaling about $10.3 billion over the same period. As a result, Binance surpassed Coinbase in net inflows during December, reversing the earlier dynamic. This divergence suggests that while broad liquidity has tightened, trading activity has become more concentrated on venues associated with shorter-term positioning and active risk management. At the same time, the absence of a significant price reaction highlights how Bitcoin has continued to trade sideways even as fresh capital flows slowed. Taken together, the data points to a market operating with reduced turnover and lower urgency on both the buy and sell side. Bitcoin’s ability to remain range-bound amid shrinking inflows reflects a quieter, more constrained liquidity environment compared with conditions seen just one month earlier. Related Reading: Ethereum Market Structure Strengthens: Binance Netflows Point to Long-Term Conviction BTC Slips Below Key Moving Averages as Daily Trend Weakens Bitcoin is trading near the $87,900 level on the daily chart, extending a corrective move that began after the failed breakout above $120,000 earlier in the quarter. The structure now reflects a clear shift in short-term trend dynamics, with price firmly below its major daily moving averages. Notably, Bitcoin has lost the 111-day and 200-day simple moving averages. Both of which have started to roll over and act as dynamic resistance rather than support. The rejection from the $110,000–$115,000 zone marked a decisive lower high, followed by an impulsive sell-off toward the mid-$80,000 range. Since then, price action has compressed into a narrow consolidation, suggesting temporary stabilization rather than a confirmed reversal. However, the inability to reclaim the declining moving averages indicates that upside attempts remain fragile. Related Reading: Ethereum Traders Chase Upside With Historic Leverage – Breakout Fuel Or Fragile Setup? Volume behavior adds to the cautious outlook. Selling pressure expanded during the initial breakdown, while subsequent rebounds have occurred on muted volume, signaling limited conviction from buyers. This imbalance suggests that dip-buying demand is present but not strong enough to force a trend shift. From a technical perspective, the $85,000–$88,000 area has become a critical near-term support zone. A sustained hold could allow for range formation. Failure to defend this level would increase the risk of a deeper retracement. For sentiment to improve, Bitcoin would need to reclaim the $95,000–$100,000 region and stabilize above its key daily averages. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is struggling to reclaim the $90,000 level, and market confidence continues to deteriorate as an increasing number of analysts begin to call for a prolonged bear market. Sentiment has turned decisively cautious, with investors reassessing risk exposure and preparing for a potentially challenging period ahead. Despite multiple attempts to stabilize, price action remains compressed, offering little confirmation that bullish momentum is ready to return. Related Reading: The Gold-to-Bitcoin Rotation Narrative Gains Strength: A Data-Driven Review According to an analysis by XWIN Research Japan, the current market phase is best described as a range-bound consolidation following a high-level correction, with momentum conditionally tilted to the downside. While Bitcoin has remained largely sideways over the past three months, traditional safe-haven assets have followed a very different trajectory. Gold and silver have continued to push higher, reflecting rising demand for defensive assets amid persistent geopolitical tensions, policy uncertainty, and expectations of lower real interest rates. This divergence highlights a structural challenge for Bitcoin in the current macro environment. Institutional capital can allocate to precious metals with relative ease, benefiting from deep liquidity, established market infrastructure, and clear regulatory frameworks. Silver, in particular, has amplified gold’s move, supported by tighter supply dynamics and greater sensitivity to speculative flows. Bitcoin’s Role as a Risk Asset Limits Its Upside The analysis explains that Bitcoin has not followed gold and silver higher because it is still treated primarily as a high-beta risk asset, rather than a pure safe haven. In risk-off environments, capital typically flows first into gold and government bonds, where investors seek stability and capital preservation. Bitcoin, by contrast, is often a secondary consideration, attracting flows only after confidence improves. Unlike gold’s long-term and relatively price-insensitive buyer base, Bitcoin remains more exposed to short-term positioning and marginal demand, making broad macro tailwinds insufficient on their own to sustain a durable uptrend. CryptoQuant data reinforces this interpretation. Bitcoin’s apparent demand has recently turned negative, signaling that fresh demand is not expanding even as prices hold at relatively elevated levels. At the same time, Short-Term Holder SOPR has spent extended periods below 1, indicating that short-term participants are selling at a loss or near breakeven. This behavior typically adds selling pressure on rebounds, as underwater holders use price strength to exit positions. As long as capital continues to favor gold and silver, Bitcoin’s internal demand structure remains a key constraint. The base case points to continued support for precious metals, while Bitcoin’s upside stays capped by weak demand and short-term holder pressure. That view would only change if apparent demand turns sustainably positive and STH SOPR reclaims and holds above 1. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Lags Network Utility: A Valuation Reset Is Underway Price Holds Critical Support as Trend Weakens Bitcoin is currently trading near the $87,000–$88,000 area after a sharp corrective move from recent highs above $110,000. The chart shows that price has lost the short-term bullish structure, with BTC now firmly below the 50-day moving average (blue), which has started to slope downward. This confirms that short-term momentum has turned negative and rallies are facing increasing overhead supply. More importantly, price is now testing the 100-day moving average (green), which sits just above the current level and has acted as dynamic support throughout much of this cycle. The market’s reaction around this zone is critical. A sustained hold above the 100-day MA could allow Bitcoin to stabilize and form a base, while a decisive breakdown would likely expose the 200-day moving average (red), currently rising near the low $80,000s. Related Reading: Ethereum Market Structure Strengthens: Binance Netflows Point to Long-Term Conviction Volume dynamics reinforce the cautious outlook. The sell-off from the October peak was accompanied by elevated volume, signaling distribution rather than a shallow pullback. Since then, volume has tapered off, suggesting a lack of aggressive dip-buying interest at current levels. Structurally, Bitcoin remains in a broader uptrend as long as it holds above the 200-day MA, but the loss of the 50-day and weakening momentum indicate consolidation or further downside risk in the near term. Bulls need a recovery back above $90,000 to regain control and shift sentiment meaningfully. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
VanEck's David Schassler expects gold and bitcoin to rebound sharply as investor demand for hard assets is expected to rise.
The Bitcoin price could experience major swings this Friday as billions of dollars in options are set to expire. A crypto market expert has warned that the scale of this event could trigger “something big,” potentially affecting both volatility and the actions of retail and institutional investors. Bitcoin Price Braces For Major Moves This Friday On Monday, crypto analyst NoLimit signaled that this upcoming Friday could be a historic moment for Bitcoin. According to the expert, over $23.6 billion worth of Bitcoin options are scheduled to expire on December 26, marking the largest options expiry the market has ever seen. The analyst has stated that anyone with crypto holdings should pay close attention. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Bull And Bear Cases That Crypto Traders Should Know About NoLimit explained that an options expiry involves leveraged bets on Bitcoin’s price. He stated that calls are wagers that the price will rise, while puts predict it will fall. The analyst also emphasized that when these options expire, they either become worthless or force buying and selling in the spot market to hedge the positions. He also highlighted that with $23.6 billion in options expiring in a single day, a massive amount of risk will be removed from dealer books all at once. According to the analysis, this risk offloading is a key driver of market volatility, as the magnitude of the expiry is unprecedented. Looking at the data, previous year-end expiries were significantly smaller. In 2021, the options expiry was around $6 billion, followed by $2.4 billion in 2022. It climbed to $11 billion in 2023 and reached $19.8 billion in 2024. NoLimit has suggested that this year’s jump to $23.6 billion represents a significant shift in market dynamics. The analyst pointed out that retail investors no longer dominate the market. He stated that institutional-sized risk is now being repriced in real time, and this Friday could trigger significant price movements. NoLimit also suggested that the scale and timing of the expiry make it a critical event for traders and investors in the market. Analyst Reveals Why This Friday Truly Matters In his analysis, NoLimit outlined the specific reasons why this Friday truly matters as Bitcoin’s $23.6 billion options prepare to expire. He explained that dealers are heavily hedged around key strikes, and once expiry hits, those hedges are removed. As a result, the shift can trigger sharp moves for Bitcoin in either direction. Related Reading: Don’t Expect A Fast Bitcoin Move – Here’s How Long The Last Leg Could Take The analyst noted that current market conditions could further amplify the impact. According to his analysis, Bitcoin’s liquidity is extremely low during the holiday week, and less volume typically means each order has more influence. As a result, the expert stated that a violent price move could occur even without major news. NoLimit also noted that much of Bitcoin’s Open Interest is concentrated near the major psychological levels. Once the expiry passes, this open interest disappears entirely. He explained that this is why markets often experience sideways trading leading into expiry, followed by a clear directional move shortly afterward. The analyst added that volatility is the key setup this week. He says the crucial moment to watch is the Bitcoin price after the expiry, not before. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
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Bitcoin’s recent price action has started to wear on people. After a strong start to the year and a run that pushed above $100,000 and briefly touched $125,000, the market has drifted into something closer to a low-volatility grind. On the 1000x podcast, ProCap’s Jeff Park argued that this shift in “market structure” is not a minor detail. In his view, it is the central reason Bitcoin has struggled to reassert momentum, even as gold and other commodities have pushed to fresh highs. Bitcoin Needs Volatility Park’s thesis is straightforward: Bitcoin’s upside story historically leans on volatility. If volatility compresses and stays compressed, Bitcoin loses one of the features that has consistently attracted marginal risk capital, especially the kind of capital that shows up early, pushes price, and then pulls in the next cohort behind it. “There’s two things we need to hit on,” Park said. “One is the belief in the projection that I have for Bitcoin to reach meaningfully new highs that we need implied volatility and realized volatility to rise concurrently. And then the second is to your question, why is that not happening today?” He framed Bitcoin less as an isolated “crypto asset” and more as one instrument in a much wider relative-value universe. In that universe, Bitcoin competes for allocation with equities, rates, FX, and commodities, not just other tokens. And the attribute that made Bitcoin distinct for many allocators was its capacity for asymmetric outcomes, which volatility helps express. Related Reading: Bitcoin Perps Heat Up Again As Leveraged Longs Rise “Bitcoin is not in a microcosm of its own, right?” Park said. “You’re competing with Mag 7, you’re competing with gold, you’re competing with FX, you’re competing with JGBs, and it’s a huge world out there. And the feature that I think Bitcoin has always been exciting for a lot of folks is to capitalize upon asymmetric outcomes in which the volatility is one of the unique features that makes it worthwhile for the risk-taking endeavor.” Bitcoin Needs ‘Real’ Buyers That sets up the uncomfortable comparison the hosts kept circling: gold making new highs while Bitcoin lags. Park didn’t try to wave it away. He called it a moment for Bitcoin holders to be realistic about adoption and about where the truly structural bids are right now. “The reality is gold is going up because there’s real buyers, right?” he said. “There’s real buyers stepping in as there has been for the past year and a half. And those structural bids continue to exist because it has found a product market fit within our global monetary framework as a reserve asset.” Park argued Bitcoin is not there yet. Yes, there are recurring headlines about sovereign interest, and he referenced the Czech Republic’s central bank as an example of a country testing Bitcoin exposure. But he emphasized that the dominant flows in 2025 have been ETFs and corporates, not governments and not central banks. “Make no mistake, it’s not governments and it’s not central banks,” he said. “Most of the flows today have come from ETFs and corporates. ETFs are coming because there’s private wealth investment advisors that want exposure to an asset class… Corporates have a very different intention of what they’re trying to accomplish.” Related Reading: Galaxy Predicts Bitcoin At $250,000 In 2027, Chaos In 2026 In Park’s telling, that distinction matters because it changes the market’s tone. ETF buyers are often seeking portfolio construction benefits, decorrelation, optionality, a non-consensus sleeve, rather than the kind of high-conviction, narrative-driven bid that historically made Bitcoin feel like the market’s main event. Retail Adoption Must Return Park then extended the argument into a broader cultural point about who actually pushes new adoption. He described Bitcoin as a generational project and warned that institutionalization only works if it remains anchored to retail participation rather than replacing it. “At the core of it is because Bitcoin is a movement of young people’s hearts,” Park said. “If young people stop participating, I think the fact that the institutionalization of Wall Street is happening on the back of their investments is also going to come to a halt… If you want Bitcoin to continue to perform, you want to appeal to young participants.” He also pointed to a separate drag: Bitcoin’s risk conversation has become noisier. Park cited renewed “quantum anxiety” and internal disputes around various Bitcoin Improvement Proposals, arguing that even low-probability existential risks need to be compensated and low volatility does not offer that compensation. “Gold doesn’t have that,” he said, contrasting Bitcoin’s ongoing protocol and existential debates with gold’s comparatively settled narrative. “You have to be compensated for it… and you are certainly not going to be compensated for quantum risk with Bitcoin vol at 25.” Even so, Park did not present the long-term case as broken. If anything, he argued Bitcoin’s advantage becomes more obvious when you focus on practical ownership rather than financialized wrappers. He described physical gold as operationally difficult – opaque pricing, logistical friction, authenticity concerns — and said Bitcoin still offers something closer to a single global clearing price and simpler portability. “Anyone who’s ever tried to buy physical gold knows how annoying that process is,” he said. “The pricing is intransparent. The logistics is unclear and ultimately authenticity too… Bitcoin still has what I call a singularly clearing price for trading.” Why Isn’t Bitcoin Going Up? | Jeff Park https://t.co/CxtFhRKcIZ — 1000x (@1000xPod) December 22, 2025 At the end, Park said the main question going forward is whether Bitcoin can regain the conditions that historically pulled new participants into the trade and whether the market is willing to pay for the risk it keeps insisting Bitcoin represents. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $87,779. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at a critical level as market participants watch closely for its next major move. A crypto analyst has revealed that the leading cryptocurrency is approaching a make-or-break level as it hovers around a key support zone that has been holding the price in the short term. The analyst has also outlined clear upside and downside levels that could determine whether the Bitcoin price regains momentum towards $90,000 or faces renewed downward pressure. Bitcoin To Face Make Or Break Zone At $100,000 In an X post this Monday, crypto expert CyrilXBT presented a fresh Bitcoin market outlook suggesting its price could be nearing a critical make-or-break level. He noted that Bitcoin was still in a broader downtrend from its peak, but recent price action suggested the market may be forming a base rather than continuing lower. Related Reading: Expert Predicts The Most Realistic Timeframe For XRP Price To Reach $100 The accompanying chart clearly reflected this bearish structure. It showed a series of lower highs after the market peak, reinforcing the idea that BTC is presently in a decline. Price action was also compressed into a tight range above a highlighted support zone, signaling indecision between buyers and sellers. According to CyrilXBT, fortunately, the $84,000 to $88,000 zone has been doing most of the heavy lifting, with buyers actively defending it. He revealed that repeated tests of this range had failed to produce a decisive breakdown, showing that demand remained present despite sustained selling pressure. CyrilXBT has stated that as long as Bitcoin continues to hold the $84,000 to $88,000 region, prices will move upward at a slow but steady pace rather than making an explosive move. He noted that this type of structure often pushes BTC toward the $92,000 to $95,000 range, which he has set as BTC’s first upside target. This move is described as a recovery attempt within the existing trend rather than a complete reversal. The analyst pointed to $100,000 as the most important level above the current price. He noted that this level had previously provided strong support and had now flipped to resistance. He further described $100,000 as the true make-or-break level that would determine whether Bitcoin could regain bullish momentum. Related Reading: XRP Holders Are In For More Pain As There’s ‘Not A Single Support Holding’ BTC Risks Crash If Resistance Fails In his post, CyrilXBTC noted that if BTC fails to hold $100,000, its price outlook could turn bearish quickly. The crypto analyst disclosed that a loss of the $84,000 area could trigger a steeper decline toward lower support zones between $76,000 and $72,000. He also indicated that this area represented the next major level at which buyers could step in to prevent further downside. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading above $87,000 after declining by more than 8.5% this year. If a crash below $84,000 occurs, the cryptocurrency could lose between 12.6% and 17.2% of its market value. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
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Data shows traders have set up fresh Bitcoin positions on the perpetual futures market during the past day, and the Funding Rate suggests they are long bets. Bitcoin Open Interest Has Witnessed An Uptick According to data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the surge Bitcoin has seen to kick off Monday has come alongside a spike in the Bitcoin perpetual futures Open Interest. Related Reading: Bitcoin Inflow Slowdown: CryptoQuant Founder Says Sentiment Could Take Months To Recover The “Open Interest” refers to an indicator that keeps track of the total amount of BTC perpetual futures positions that are currently open on all derivatives exchanges. When the value of this metric rises, it means the investors are opening up fresh positions on the market. Since such a trend usually accompanies an increase in leverage for the sector, it can lead to more volatility for the asset. On the other hand, the indicator going down implies investors are either pulling back on risk or getting liquidated by their platform. This kind of trend can result in the cryptocurrency’s price behaving in a more stable manner. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Open Interest over the last couple of weeks: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Open Interest rose from 304,000 BTC to 310,000 BTC as the cryptocurrency observed a recovery surge to $90,000 during the past day. This represents an increase of about 2%, which isn’t much, but still signals that the rally encouraged traders to open up new positions on the perpetual futures market. The Open Interest includes both types of positions when calculating its value, so it contains no information about whether positions have a bias toward shorts or longs. Another metric called the Funding Rate can be used to determine that instead. This indicator measures the amount of periodic fee that perpetual futures traders are exchanging between each other. A positive value implies long investors are paying a premium to the shorts in order to hold onto their positions, while a negative one implies bearish bets are dominant. Related Reading: Ethereum Exchange Outflows Soar To $978M: Sign Of Dip Buying? As the below chart shows, the Bitcoin Funding Rate has been positive for much of the last two weeks, indicating that a bullish sentiment has been shared by the majority of perpetual futures traders. This metric also noted an uptick alongside the increase in the Open Interest, going from 0.04% to 0.09%. “This combination signals a renewed buildup in leveraged long positioning, as perpetual traders position for a potential year-end move,” noted Glassnode. BTC Price Bitcoin has seen a bit of a pullback since its surge above $90,000 as its price is now back at $89,500. The trend in the price of the coin over the last five days | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Gold and copper have outperformed other major assets this year, with gold rallying more than copper.
Bitcoin’s recent bounce may look like a sign of renewed strength, but the price action tells a more deceptive story. With downside liquidity still thin and support holding firm, the market appears primed for a move that draws in eager bulls rather than rewarding them. This rally could be less about recovery and more about setting the stage for maximum pain when sentiment flips. Aligning The Mid- And Long-Term Bitcoin Outlook During an in-depth technical and psychological analysis, Mr. Wall Street explained that his broader outlook on Bitcoin had already been clarified a week earlier, after some confusion around his mid and long-term stance. With those time horizons now clearly defined, he turned his focus to the short-term picture, outlining current market behavior. Related Reading: Bitcoin In Standby Mode: Weekend Ranges Rule Before Holiday ‘Chop’ He reiterated that while his mid-term bias on Bitcoin remains bearish, the short-term structure has turned bullish. The reason centered on insufficient downside liquidity to justify market makers initiating the next major leg lower. This imbalance supported the case for a temporary relief move to the upside. Thus, Mr. Wall Street placed long positions around the Value Area Low between $80,000 and $84,000 on a bounce that could later evolve into a bull trap. Shortly after, Bitcoin dipped and successfully retested the $84,000 level, which aligns with the weekly MA100, following several deceptive upside moves. As a result, his long orders were filled as planned, leaving him holding a position from $84,550. The analyst noted that he plans to exit only in the $98,000–$104,000 zone, where a Fair Value Gap converges with heavy liquidity, making it an ideal area to take profit. Being In Longs Doesn’t Change The Macro Bearish Thesis Mr. Wall Street clarified that holding long positions does not signal a bullish shift on Bitcoin. The broader outlook remains bearish, with expectations for the next major downside move toward the $64,000–$70,000 region. In the short term, Bitcoin is sitting at strong support while downside liquidity is limited, which reduces the probability of an immediate continuation lower. Related Reading: Citi Analysts Project Bitcoin Price Could Reach $189,000 Next Year In Bullish Scenario A more logical scenario involves market makers engineering a bullish move to attract retail participation. As late buyers enter long positions, they gradually become exit liquidity, setting the stage for a larger downside move once sufficient liquidity is built. He also mentioned the $68,000–$74,000 zone had become too widely anticipated to function as a true “maximum pain” area capable of resetting market structure. For that reason, the downside target was revised lower to the $64,000–$70,000 range, with expectations that this zone could be reached in late Q1 or early Q2 of 2026. This level represents an initial major target rather than the final bottom. Recent price action was highlighted as a clear example of these dynamics. Bitcoin’s rapid move from $87,000 to $90,000, followed by a sharp drop to $85,000 within hours, resulted in widespread liquidations. Many traders chased the upside and were quickly trapped, and fake moves in both directions are likely to continue as liquidity is built ahead of a larger move lower. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com