THE LATEST CRYPTO NEWS

Coinbase’s Bitcoin premium has dropped into negative territory for the first time since May. This development is bearish for the flagship crypto as it suggests that demand from the U.S. may be waning.  Coinbase Bitcoin Premium In The Red CryptoQuant data shows that the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index is at -0.00254829, marking the first time it has been in the red since May 29, when it was at -0.01626105. This Index tracks the difference between the Bitcoin price on Coinbase and the Bitcoin price on Binance. It is also used to gauge the spot demand for BTC from institutional and retail investors in the U.S.  Related Reading: Finance Author Warns Of Great Depression Style Crash, Is Bitcoin The Answer? As such, this development suggests that the demand for BTC among U.S. investors is currently low. This is significant considering that Bitcoin rallies to new highs have coincided with the Coinbase premium being in positive territory. This highlights how much demand from the U.S. contributes to BTC’s uptrend.  In recent times, this demand has mainly come from the Bitcoin ETFs, with Coinbase acting as a custodian for eight out of the eleven spot BTC funds. Notably, the drop in the Coinbase Bitcoin premium coincides with the drop in the net inflows and increase in outflows from these funds.  SoSo Value data shows that these funds recorded net outflows of $114.83 million on July 31. Before now, they had also gone on a 3-day streak of consecutive net outflows between July 21 and 23. This indicates a wave of profit-taking among these investors, especially following the recent Bitcoin rally to a new all-time high (ATH) of $123,000.  In an X post, CryptoQuant also confirmed this wave of profit-taking. The platform revealed that Bitcoin just saw its third major profit-taking wave of this bull run. Realized profits spiked to between $6 and $8 billion in late July, similar to March and December 2024 peaks. CryptoQuant added that it was new whales who led the selling above $120,000.  New Investor Dominance Is Growing With Market In Stable Condition In a CryptoQuant on-chain analysis, analyst Axel revealed that new investor dominance is growing and that the market is still stable in this late Bitcoin bull cycle phase. He alluded to the demand and supply between new and old investors metric and noted that the peaks of 64% in March 2024 and 72% in December 2024 coincided with local price maximums.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Market Is Over? Analyst Calls 50% Crash To $60,000 The analyst noted that during those periods, the influx of new liquidity into Bitcoin was exhausted, and old holders began actively taking profits. However, this time is different, as the current value of the demand and supply between new and old investors is 30%, which is only half of the overheated levels.  Axel added that the trend is directed upward as the cumulative activity of young coins has been steadily growing since July 2024. The analyst remarked that this indicates that a notable layer of new buyers is entering the Bitcoin market. Meanwhile, pressure from the old holders is not yet critical.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $115,550, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Strategy (previously MicroStrategy) announced its first profit in six quarters, buoyed by a notable surge in cryptocurrency values during the latest quarter that saw the market’s largest cryptocurrencies,, including Bitcoin (BTC), recover from previous price corrections.  This development comes as the crypto firm, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, capitalizes on a favorable market environment that saw Bitcoin reached a new all-time high past $123,000 for the first time, following the signing of the GENIUS Act into law by US President Donald Trump earlier this month. Strategy Reports $14 Billion Gain As of June 30, Strategy held an impressive 597,325 BTC, purchased at an average price of $70,982 per coin. With Bitcoin currently trading in a consolidation between $114,000 and $120,000, the company recorded a staggering $14 billion unrealized fair value gain on its digital assets.  Related Reading: Trump-Appointed Group Calls For Easier Crypto Regulations From Federal Authorities This marked a stark contrast to the previous year, when the company co-founded by Bitcoin bull Michael Saylor, faced a loss of $102.6 million, or 57 cents per share.  For the three months ending June 30, Strategy posted a net profit of $9.97 billion, or $32.60 per share as the company has increasingly ramped up its acquisition efforts through new initiatives this year. ‘Hyper-Growth Phase’ For Bitcoin Historically, the company faced restrictions on recognizing gains from Bitcoin unless it sold the assets; it could only account for losses if the cryptocurrency’s value fell below its purchase price. However, this recent profit signals a shift in its financial strategy, reflecting broader corporate acceptance of cryptocurrencies.  Strategy began its Bitcoin accumulation in 2020, initially using cash and later financing its purchases through low-cost convertible bonds and stock sales. The firm is now ranked first among the top 100 public Bitcoin treasury companies. Following it are the mining firm MARA Holdings, XXI, the Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company, and Riot Platforms. Related Reading: Chainlink Acknowledged By The White House As Key Player In Crypto Infrastructure The company’s stock, MSTR, has surged nearly 39% this year, outpacing Bitcoin’s own 25% increase. This momentum has inspired other public companies to adopt similar strategies, emulating the buy-and-hold treasury approach championed by Strategy’s co-founder Michael Saylor.  On a recent post-earnings call by the company, Saylor remarked that the digital asset industry is entering a “hyper-growth, hyper-adoption phase” for Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset. Moreover, several companies are now diversifying their crypto holdings, exploring other tokens like Ethereum (ETH) and utilizing mergers with blank-check companies to integrate crypto assets into their equity structures.  Strategy’s stock, which saw a nearly fivefold increase last year, even earned it a place in the Nasdaq 100 index in December. When writing, the market’s leading crypto trades at $115,780, meaning a 6% gap between current prices and its record high.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to face resistance just under the $120,000 mark, struggling to build enough momentum for a breakout. Over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency has remained in a tight trading range above $118,000, representing a slight decline of nearly 4% from its most recent all-time high. Despite the lack of upward movement, analysts suggest that Bitcoin may be entering a phase of energy consolidation rather than signaling an imminent downturn. According to data from CryptoQuant, two separate market analysts have shared their perspectives on BTC’s current cycle, focusing on long-term valuation metrics and investor activity patterns that could influence the next significant price movement. Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Begin Distribution: Mirroring Fall 2024 Cycle Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Signals Potential Upside Momentum CryptoQuant contributor CoinCare highlighted the role of the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio in assessing Bitcoin’s position in its current market cycle. The MVRV ratio measures whether BTC is trading above or below its perceived fair value, with readings below 1 often marking market bottoms and readings above 3.7 typically associated with market peaks. In a recent post titled “The MVRV Indicator is Converging Toward Its 365-Day Moving Average. What Comes Next”, CoinCare explained that Bitcoin’s MVRV is currently at 2.2, gradually moving closer to its 365-day moving average. “Historically, when the MVRV ratio converges toward its long-term average, it tends to rebound and move toward overvalued territory, often accompanying price growth,” the analyst noted. Based on historical patterns, CoinCare expects BTC to continue consolidating before attempting another upward push, potentially retesting overvaluation levels if buying activity strengthens. New Investor Activity Indicates Healthy Late Bull Cycle A separate analysis from another CryptoQuant analyst, AxelAdlerJr, examined Bitcoin’s market structure based on investor dominance metrics. The data showed that new investor dominance currently sits at 30%, significantly below levels that previously indicated overheated market conditions, which reached 64% and 72% during local price peaks in March and December 2024, respectively. According to AxelAdlerJr, the steady increase in activity from new market participants since July 2024 suggests that fresh liquidity is entering the market, supporting ongoing bullish sentiment. Related Reading: Bitcoin Demand Drops Among US Investors—Is a Price Correction Coming? At the same time, long-term holders are selling moderately, with a coefficient of 0.3, meaning that the supply from coins held for three years or more is being absorbed without triggering sharp market corrections. “This dynamic indicates that while new buyers are active, there is still space before the market reaches euphoric levels, which typically occur when new investor dominance exceeds 60-70%,” the analyst stated. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to consolidate slightly below the $120,000 level, the dominance of new investors is steadily rising. However, on-chain data shows that BTC is still far from overheating, suggesting the premier cryptocurrency may have more room to run before a significant correction sets in. Bitcoin May Still Have Some Room To Run According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor AxelAdlerJr, new investor dominance in Bitcoin is gradually increasing – currently hovering around 30%, which is only halfway to the historical “overheated” threshold. Related Reading: Bitcoin Overheating Signals Easing – Is A Second-Half Rally Ahead? The analyst shared the following chart, which highlights two past instances – marked in orange – when new investor dominance reached overheated levels and coincided with BTC local price tops. The first instance occurred in March 2024 when the metric hit 64%, and the second in December 2024 when it peaked at 72%. In both cases, BTC experienced a significant pullback, leading to the formation of local bottoms. Notably, as the influx of new liquidity dried up during these phases, long-term holders began actively taking profits. This added further pressure on BTC’s price. Currently, while new investor dominance is trending higher, it remains well below the euphoria zone – typically between 60% and 70% – suggesting more upside potential in BTC’s bullish momentum before exhaustion. Meanwhile, older holders continue to sell moderately. The chart indicates a coefficient of 0.3, showing that the supply of three-year-old BTC is still absorbing fresh demand without sharp disruptions. From a long-term perspective, the market remains balanced, and the risk of large-scale capitulation from veteran wallets appears low. AxelAdlerJr concluded: If the indicator’s growth accelerates and approaches the historical corridor of 0.6-0.7, one should expect intensified profit-taking and, consequently, a correction. For now, the supply/demand structure remains in a healthy late bull cycle phase, when new money is coming in but old players have not yet transitioned to mass selling. Is BTC Price About To Stall? While the data above suggests that Bitcoin still has room to grow, other indicators point to waning momentum. One such signal is the recent decline in the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap, which has broken its long streak of positive values. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Rally Might Be Running on Fumes, Analyst Warns of August Turning Point Fellow CryptoQuant analyst ArabChain confirmed this development in their analysis. They noted that US investor enthusiasm for BTC appears to be cooling at current price levels. That said, positive macroeconomic factors – such as BTC’s historical correlation with global M2 money supply expansion – could still lead the digital asset to new all-time highs in the near term. At press time, BTC trades at $118,371, up 0.6% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

The latest What Bitcoin Did episode, hosted by Danny Knowles, turns squarely to the question stalking one of the market’s hottest trades: can the boom in “Bitcoin treasury” companies withstand the next prolonged drawdown? Dylan LeClair, who helps lead the Bitcoin strategy at Tokyo-listed MetaPlanet, argues the answer rests less on ideology than on balance-sheet engineering, scale, and the willingness to endure volatility without blinking. “There’s sort of a ‘gradually then suddenly’ inflection point,” he said, describing how corporate exposure to Bitcoin has migrated from gimmick to boardroom agenda. The shift, in his view, is irreversible, but survival “is a constant fight with gravity” for firms that trade at premiums to their net asset value (NAV). Why Some Bitcoin Treasury Companies Won’t Survive The Bear Market LeClair’s thesis starts with market structure. Bitcoin is homogeneous collateral, but public equities are not. Liquidity, index inclusion, and the absolute size of a balance sheet produce a “winner-take-most dynamic,” he said. Even where two issuers have the same headline premium, the gravity of size changes the calculus: “Strategy is at a measly 1.8x premium, but the premium is like $50 billion of value,” he noted, contrasting that with the far smaller absolute premia attached to emerging players. Premiums compress mechanically as companies buy more Bitcoin or as the price rises, he added, which means maintaining a rich multiple demands ever-larger inflows of capital. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin’s Final Leg Is Near – Time To Be ‘Cautiously Optimistic’? Pressed on what a bear market would do to those premia, LeClair separated cycle folklore from funding reality. He does not buy the inevitability of a 70% “pack it up for three years” drawdown as a base case, arguing the market now tends to reprice and then chop for extended periods. But he is unequivocal that a risk-off phase would punish sloppy balance sheets. “There will be pressure on MNAVs… Are you levered? With what sort of debt? Do you have secured debt where your Bitcoin’s encumbered? Do you have debt due in one year?” By contrast, he pointed to perpetual preferred equity—dividends but “no debt maturity ever”—as a structure that removes the most dangerous cliff: “With the prefs it’s like, no, we’re not selling actually ever.” For MetaPlanet, he framed risk management in deliberately dull terms: “We’re focused on staying… pristine, maintaining maximal flexibility.” He cited a “BTC rating” of roughly 16.5x—“we have 16 bucks of Bitcoin for every dollar of debt”—as intentional dry powder rather than under-optimization. The stress test, to him, is behavioral as much as financial: can management “eat the 70% bear market” if it comes? He expects casualties. “It’s naive to say that every company that adopts Bitcoin will be a success… there will be failures. There will be a bankruptcy… it’s a brutal, competitive world.” Where, then, is the moat? Not merely in being public, he argued, but in graduating from equity capital to the far deeper fixed-income markets. Convertibles provided early leverage—but at a cost he described with traderly bluntness. Convertible desks “woo you,” then short aggressively to hedge, “dampening the volatility” that many treasury companies actually want in their common stock. The more durable solution, he said, is permanent capital in the form of preferred equity. Here he credits Michael Saylor’s Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) with reaching “escape velocity,” pioneering a layered capital stack that now includes a new variable-rate preferred dubbed “Stretch” (ticker: STRC). Stretch is engineered to keep trading near $100 by adjusting its dividend and, if necessary, issuing new shares or calling them at $101—“a pretty genius feat of financial engineering,” in LeClair’s words, because it behaves like a cash-equivalent for investors without imposing maturity cliffs on the issuer. Strategy priced STRC in late July with an initial dividend framework and then closed a multi-billion-dollar offering, with the company describing the instrument as variable-rate, perpetual preferred stock designed to pay monthly and target trading near par. LeClair sees this as the practical realization of a long-standing ambition in crypto finance: a dollar-like instrument tied to Bitcoin collateral, without forcing asset sales in stress. Unlike algorithmic stablecoins that were vulnerable to redemptions spirals, Strategy’s preferreds are senior to common equity and massively over-collateralized by transparent Bitcoin holdings, he argued. External observers have reached similar high-level descriptions: Strategy’s own materials emphasize STRC’s variable dividend on a stated $100 amount, while coverage in financial media notes the offering’s explicit aim to hew to par and its place alongside earlier preferreds (Stride, Strike, Strife) in a capital stack backed by tens of billions in unencumbered Bitcoin. All of this feeds the consolidation logic LeClair expects in a downturn. Preferreds, he said, are both offensive and defensive. Offensively, they add dry powder to buy more BTC or even buy back common if MNAV compresses, reversing flow against short sellers “playing this spread game.” Defensively, they function as an “MNAV defense mechanism,” easing reliance on converts and the gamma-trading that “neuters volatility” in the common. If markets turn, he anticipates classic Wall Street behavior: opportunists will “clear off some debt, buy the Bitcoin at a discount.” MetaPlanet, he added, is not seeking to be a roll-up; the focus is “laser” on BTC itself. Related Reading: Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase Signals Market Sits Between Accumulation And Distribution Could Anyone Catch Strategy? LeClair is diplomatic on peers bringing large private Bitcoin pools public, calling it “overwhelmingly positive” for the asset. But his competitive assessment is stark: “I think Saylor’s reached escape velocity… a 600,000 Bitcoin lead is pretty insurmountable.” To contextualize that claim with public data, Strategy now reports roughly 629,000 BTC, giving it a commanding lead over other corporate holders. He adds that only a mega-cap with a decisive pivot—“if Mark Zuckerberg took the orange pill tomorrow”—could realistically challenge, which he deems unlikely given competing priorities like AI. LeClair is no maximalist about smooth sailing. Premiums will ebb. Funding windows will open and slam shut. Some firms, he warned, are “cosplaying as Bitcoiners” and may abandon discipline at the first whiff of pain. He was also frank about the sector’s self-selection bias: during the good times, new “treasury companies” appear by the week; the real filter arrives when prices fall and maturities near. “The times are good now… there will be a cycle. That’s what will separate the men from the boys,” he said. Survival, in his telling, comes down to a few non-negotiables: unencumbered collateral, long-dated or perpetual liabilities, and management that will not sell into downdrafts. Yet his broader message is that the game board has changed. Corporate adoption remains “early innings,” he said, because “the rest of the world actually simply doesn’t care” yet. The depth of the credit markets—and the emergence of Bitcoin-backed instruments palatable to those markets—may be what finally does the persuading. “If Bitcoin is going to eat the world… it has to get to all these different pools of capital.” Treasury companies that make that leap, he believes, can not only endure a bear market—they can use it to widen the gap. At press time, BTC traded at $118,100. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

In a post shared on TradingView, crypto analyst Xanrox argues that the current bullish cycle is nearly over, pointing to a potential downtrend that would see the Bitcoin price crash to $60,000. This analysis comes as Bitcoin is trading within a very quiet phase, prompting many crypto traders and crypto analysts to start reassessing its next direction. Xanrox Predicts Bitcoin Top At $122,000 And Crash To $60,000 The world’s largest cryptocurrency has been hovering just above the $118,000 price level for several days now, struggling to break decisively above this zone but also showing no major signs of a breakdown. Despite this consolidation, market sentiment remains upbeat.  Related Reading: This Indicator Has Perfectly Called Bitcoin Cycle Tops, Here’s What It’s Saying Now The crypto fear and greed index continues to flash “greed,” and most analysts still argue that Bitcoin is setting up for another leg upward. However, an interesting technical outlook challenges this bullish consensus and issues a crash warning. Notably, crypto analyst Xanrox identified a sell signal on the weekly candlestick timeframe chart after Bitcoin reached the 1.618 Fibonacci extension and touched the long-term 2017–2021–2025 trendline, with the latest touch of the trendline aligning to Bitcoin’s recent all-time high at $122,800.  According to him, the most recent touch of this trendline might be the top of the current cycle. Furthermore, he noted that the Elliott Wave structure has now completed Wave 5 of a rising wedge and a larger Wave 5 impulse move. As such, a corrective phase is about to start. What’s Next For Bitcoin? As shown in the chart below, the next major move could be at least a 50% decline, with Bitcoin dropping to around $60,000 by 2026. This projection is based on previous price action, where Bitcoin embarked on 84% and 77% price crashes after touching the trendline in 2017 and 2021, respectively. The technical setup also aligns with statistical data that shows August and September historically bring increased selling pressure. Xanrox noted that while traders can wait for further confirmation, such as a break below the 50-week moving average, he personally believes the top is already in. Large institutions and professional investors pay close attention to the 20, 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short Squeeze Incoming As Market Makers Set Trap To Go Above $123,000 Xanrox’s outlook is a sharp contrast to the prevailing sentiment among crypto investors. Bitcoin’s current structure is still showing strength on higher timeframes, and several other analysts see the recent consolidation between $117,000 and $119,000 as a base for continuation toward $130,000 and beyond.  The lack of major sell-side volume, the firm hold above the $118,000 price level and the 50-week moving average, and bullish indicators across altcoins like Ethereum are on-chain signals that the Bitcoin price still has more room to run before it reaches a peak price this cycle. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s new investor dominance is gaining momentum just as the asset consolidates in a tight range, setting the stage for a major breakout. After more than two weeks of sideways movement between $115,000 and $120,000, BTC continues to trade within this well-defined range—building pressure that typically precedes a sharp move. Related Reading: Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase Signals Market Sits Between Accumulation And Distribution Data from CryptoQuant highlights a crucial dynamic: the comparison between demand and supply from new versus old investors. The current new investor dominance sits at 30%, only half of the “overheated” range of 60–70% seen during euphoric phases, but the trend is clearly climbing. This means new liquidity is entering the market steadily, while old holders are still distributing at a manageable pace. The supply of long-term holders is absorbing this growing young demand without disrupting the price structure. This healthy balance suggests that the market is still in a stable late bull phase, with no signs of mass profit-taking or capitulation from seasoned investors. With Bitcoin maintaining a bullish structure and demand from fresh entrants rising, the coming days will be critical. Bitcoin Enters Healthy Late Bull Phase as New Investor Activity Grows Top analyst Axel Adler recently shared detailed insights into Bitcoin’s market structure, focusing on the balance between new and old investor behavior. According to Adler, previous peaks in new investor dominance—64% in March 2024 and 72% in December 2024—aligned precisely with local BTC price tops. At those points, new liquidity began to wane, and experienced holders ramped up profit-taking. Currently, new investor dominance stands at 30%, which is still far from those overheated extremes. However, the trend is upward. The purple fill on the chart, which reflects cumulative activity from younger coins, has been climbing steadily since July 2024. This indicates that a fresh wave of buyers continues to enter the market, while selling pressure from old hands remains limited. This dynamic creates room for further bullish continuation before the typical euphoria zone—above 60–70% dominance—takes hold. Old holders are still distributing coins, but only moderately. A coefficient of 0.3 means that three-year-old coins are absorbing demand without triggering major volatility. This balance suggests that the market remains structurally sound. Related Reading: BlackRock Goes Heavy on Ethereum: Buys 4x More ETH Than BTC Bitcoin Forms A Tight Consolidation Range Bitcoin is currently trading at $118,413, consolidating in a narrow range between $115,724 and $122,077, as seen in the 8-hour chart. This sideways movement has persisted for over two weeks, indicating indecision in the market. The key support sits at $115,724, which has been tested multiple times but held firmly, while the $122,077 level acts as immediate resistance after a strong rejection earlier in July. The price remains above the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages, which now align in bullish order—another sign that the underlying trend is still intact despite short-term consolidation. Volume remains relatively low, suggesting that neither bulls nor bears are aggressively positioning at the moment. However, such tight ranges often precede large directional moves. Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Begin Distribution: Mirroring Fall 2024 Cycle If bulls manage to break above the $122K resistance with strong volume, it could trigger a continuation toward new highs. On the other hand, a breakdown below the $115.7K support would expose downside risk. Potentially leading to a retest of the 100-period moving average around $114,490 or even the 200-period average near $110,188. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) remains within a tight trading range following a recent pullback from its all-time high. At the time of writing, the world’s largest cryptocurrency is priced at $118,570, reflecting a 0.3% increase over the past 24 hours. Recent analysis shared on CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform by market contributor ShayanMarkets highlights a noticeable change in Bitcoin’s futures market activity. According to the analyst, while previous price surges in the $70,000–$90,000 range were marked by significant speculative pressure and leverage buildup, the current trend shows signs of cooling despite elevated price levels. This shift could play a key role in determining Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming weeks. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin’s Final Leg Is Near – Time To Be ‘Cautiously Optimistic’? Bitcoin Futures Market Shows Signs of Normalization ShayanMarkets explained that during past rallies, the futures market displayed what he called “heating and overheating phases,” often visible in red clusters on the volume bubble map. These periods typically led to corrections or temporary price consolidations as leveraged positions unwound. However, the current data reflects a different setup. Despite Bitcoin remaining near record highs, futures market activity has transitioned to neutral and cooling phases, shown by grey and green bubbles on the chart. The analyst noted that this cooling phase could be a sign of de-risking among traders, as speculative activity eases while spot demand supports the price. In a statement on QuickTake, ShayanMarkets said: This reset in leverage, despite BTC staying above $100K, signals healthier market conditions as demand shifts toward organic buying rather than high-risk speculative bets. The analyst added that if the reduced speculative pressure continues, it could provide the foundation for another significant price increase, potentially setting Bitcoin up to break past its previous all-time high above $123K. Long-Term Whales Take Profits Amid Price Stability Meanwhile, another analysis from CryptoQuant contributor CoinCare revealed selling activity from long-term Bitcoin holders, often referred to as “whales,” who have maintained their positions for over a decade. According to CoinCare, some of these holders, including those who first accumulated Bitcoin around 2013, have started to liquidate a portion of their holdings. This selling activity aligns with the historical timeline of Bitcoin’s sharp rise from under $100 to roughly $1,000 during that period, representing a potential 117,900% return for early adopters. Such profit-taking from early investors is not unusual during periods of elevated prices and does not necessarily indicate a shift in long-term market sentiment. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rejected At $120,000: Binance Whale Inflows Suggest Possible Drop To $110,000 Historically, whale activity has influenced short-term volatility but has also contributed to market redistribution, allowing newer participants to enter the market. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Following another rejection at the $120,000 level, Bitcoin (BTC) is beginning to show signs of cooling off – potentially setting the stage for another rally in the second half of the year. Some analysts now predict that BTC’s next top could approach $150,000. Bitcoin’s Current Overheating Phase Short-Lived According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Crypto Dan, Bitcoin is currently entering a cooling-off period after a short-term overheating phase. The warning signs are most evident in the cohort of BTC held for one day to one week. Related Reading: Bitcoin Flow Pulse Breaks From 2017, 2021 Patterns – What It Means For The Rally Crypto Dan shared the following chart showing that this short-term holding cohort is now recording successively lower spikes, suggesting that overheated market conditions are easing. The analyst compared the current environment to previous overheating phases seen between March-October 2024 and January-April 2025. In both instances, the overheating lasted longer and was more intense (shown in red boxes). In contrast, the current overheating conditions (shown in yellow box) show shorter extent and duration compared to the aforementioned two instances. The analyst added: Also, since the recent price increase was relatively modest, we may see a milder and shorter correction in the short term. However, it’s important to remain patient and look forward to a potential uptrend in the second half of 2025. The increase in BTC’s price during the latest rally saw the digital asset surge from around $108,000 on July 1 to a new all-time high (ATH) of $123,128 on July 13, before stabilizing around the $117,500 mark at the time of writing. Is BTC Preparing For Its Next Big Move? As Bitcoin consolidates, several analysts suggest the top cryptocurrency may be gearing up for a major move – likely to the upside. Veteran crypto analyst Titan of Crypto noted that Bitcoin is currently “in a pressure cooker.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Must Defend This Key Support For $180,000 Year-End Target, Analyst Says Titan of Crypto shared the following chart, highlighting that Bollinger Bands are tightening while volatility is shrinking. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is compressing – often a precursor to a breakout. Fellow analyst Ali Martinez added that BTC’s next top could reach $149,679, based on the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVD) metric. For context, the CVD metric measures whether buyers or sellers are dominating trading volume over time. That said, some warning signs linger. Recently, Bitcoin exchange reserves reached a one-month high, suggesting that some holders may be preparing to sell – potentially putting pressure on the current bullish trend. At press time, BTC trades at $117,546, down 0.4% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant, X, and TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade within a narrow price range, showing limited upward movement over the past week. At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency is priced around $117,719, representing a 1% decline in the past 24 hours and a 4.2% drop from its recent all-time high above $123,000. Amid this price performance, a recent analysis shared on CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform by contributor BorisVest sheds light on possible underlying market dynamics influencing Bitcoin’s current state. According to the analyst, data from Binance futures suggests that despite muted volatility, certain trading patterns could be shaping BTC’s near-term direction. These observations have prompted discussions about whether market makers are deliberately maintaining a controlled range before a significant price move occurs. Related Reading: Bitcoin Demand Drops Among US Investors—Is a Price Correction Coming? Binance Data Suggests Strategic Positioning BorisVest highlighted that Open Interest on Binance has remained steady between $13 billion and $14 billion over the past 20 days. This stability indicates that while new positions are not rapidly increasing, existing trades are being actively maintained. “Such behavior in a range environment often signals silent accumulation or strategic stalling,” the analyst wrote, suggesting that larger players may be carefully managing exposure during this consolidation phase. The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio, currently at 0.9, points to increased selling pressure from market takers. However, Bitcoin’s price has not experienced a sharp decline despite this activity, indicating that passive buyers are absorbing the sell orders. BorisVest added that the Funding Rate, hovering around 0.01, reflects a lack of aggressive leverage from either long or short positions. This could mean that institutional or high-volume traders are building positions gradually, avoiding extremes that typically lead to rapid price swings. Bitcoin Possible Downside Shakeout Before a Breakout The analysis also examined Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) data on Binance, which shows persistent selling in futures markets. Yet, despite ongoing sell-side activity, Bitcoin continues to resist significant downward movement. According to BorisVest, this could set the stage for a potential liquidity-driven shakeout. He suggested that BTC might temporarily dip toward $110,000 to clear out weak long positions and attract additional short interest. This could pave the way for a stronger, more sustainable breakout in the future. Related Reading: Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase Signals Market Sits Between Accumulation And Distribution While these metrics do not guarantee an imminent breakout or breakdown, they point to a fragile equilibrium in Bitcoin’s market structure. Historically, prolonged consolidation phases in BTC have often preceded sharp moves in either direction. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

A new Glassnode report has revealed that $141,000 could end up being the next major resistance for Bitcoin, should its price break convincingly higher. Bitcoin Is Currently Trading Between These Two STH Pricing Bands In its latest weekly report, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis and some pricing bands derived from it. Related Reading: Bitcoin Buying Spree Ends On Coinbase: Temporary Pause Or Trend Shift? This indicator measures, as its name suggests, the cost basis or acquisition level of the average investor part of the STH cohort. Formally, STHs are defined as investors who have been holding their coins for less than 155 days. This group is made up of the new entrants in the network and high-frequency traders. In other words, it represents the low-conviction side of the market. A cohort called the long-term holder (LTH) group (holding time greater than 155 days) corresponds to BTC’s HODLers. When the price of the cryptocurrency is trading above the STH Cost Basis, it means the STH cohort as a whole is in a state of net unrealized profit. On the other hand, the asset’s value being under the metric suggests the dominance of loss among the cohort. Historically, the STH Cost Basis has served as an important boundary between local bullish and bearish trends. Below is the chart shared by the analytics firm that shows which side of it the asset is trading right now. As displayed in the graph, the Bitcoin price broke through the STH Cost Basis earlier in the year and has since gained a notable amount of distance over it. At the current metric value of $105,400 and the latest BTC price, the STHs are sitting on a net gain of 11.5%. “To add statistical context, we can apply standard deviation bands around the STH cost basis,” explains the report. “These dynamic price zones help identify areas of trend exhaustion or breakout potential.” From the chart, it’s visible that BTC has found resistance at the +1 standard deviation (SD) band multiple times this cycle, with two rejections coming in the bullish push of the last few months alone. Related Reading: XRP Dormant Coins On The Move: Reason Behind Price Plunge? At present, this level lies at $125,100. “From a broader perspective, this suggests that Bitcoin may remain range-bound between $105K and $125K until a decisive breakout occurs,” notes Glassnode. What will happen once a breakout does occur? According to the analytics firm, the +2 SD level situated at $141,600 could become the next major area of resistance instead. At this level, STH profits would have ballooned significantly, raising the chances of mass selling occurring with the motive of profit-taking. BTC Price Bitcoin has continued to consolidate inside its range recently as its price is still trading around $117,600. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin faced renewed selling pressure on Wednesday, falling 0.45% to $118,446.5 as traders braced for pivotal macroeconomic events. Related Reading: Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase Signals Market Sits Between Accumulation And Distribution This drop comes amid heightened caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s July policy meeting and the looming implementation of steep U.S. tariffs on August 1. Despite a strong July performance, the flagship cryptocurrency remains under pressure due to profit-taking and broader market uncertainty. The decline follows a stretch of consolidation near the $120,000 level, a psychological resistance zone that prompted selling from long-term holders and institutions. Even Strategy’s historic $2.5 billion Bitcoin acquisition, adding 21,021 BTC, failed to spark a rally, suggesting investor fatigue and risk aversion are taking hold. BTC's price trends to the upside on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview Fed Decision and Tariff Jitters Weigh on Sentiment Investor focus remains fixed on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, with expectations that the central bank will hold interest rates steady. However, analysts remain divided on the Fed’s longer-term stance amid calls for cuts by President Trump and signs of economic cooling. Market concerns are further amplified by impending U.S. tariffs ranging from 15% to 50%, set to take effect at the start of August. Although tariffs don’t directly impact crypto prices, they influence global sentiment and contribute to increased volatility across risk assets like Bitcoin. Meanwhile, the market is also awaiting a White House report that could outline the U.S. government’s Bitcoin holdings and clarify its stance on establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Altcoins Follow Bitcoin’s Retreat Bitcoin’s pullback echoed throughout the broader crypto market. Ethereum, the leading altcoin was one of the assets that made a dip, falling by over 2% to $3,781.5. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Could Rise To $9,000 This Cycle, Eyes Breakout Against Bitcoin This caused a ripple in the altcoin space with some of the major names recording similar drops: XRP fell 0.6% to $3.1290 Solana dropped 2.1% Cardano declined 1.6% Dogecoin slipped 2.2% $TRUMP coin shed 2.6% With volatility indicators tightening, analysts warn that a significant price move may be imminent as the market awaits the Fed’s outcome and macroeconomic clarity. Cover image from ChatGPT, chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin remains trapped in a tight consolidation range that began over two weeks ago, fueling expectations of an imminent breakout or breakdown. The lack of decisive movement has created a state of market indecision, with neither bulls nor bears taking full control. Price continues to hover between key support and resistance levels, showing no strong signs of accumulation or distribution. Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Begin Distribution: Mirroring Fall 2024 Cycle According to new data from CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase—a metric that reflects the overall temperature of the market—currently sits at a neutral level. This indicates that market conditions are balanced, with no clear dominance from buyers or sellers. Profit-taking remains moderate, ETF inflows have slowed, and long-term holder activity is stable, all of which support the view that the market is in a wait-and-see mode. The current structure suggests that a major move is likely approaching. With volatility compressed and the market treading water, traders and investors are closely watching for a signal that will define the next leg. Whether Bitcoin breaks out toward new highs or rolls over into a correction, the coming days will be crucial in shaping the short-term trend and broader sentiment across the crypto landscape. Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase Signals Neutral Market Top analyst Axel Adler recently shared insights into the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase—a metric that condenses several key market indicators into a single scalar value, offering a simplified yet powerful view of where Bitcoin stands in its broader macro cycle. The metric combines data points such as overvaluation assessments, profit-taking activity, long-term holder (LTH) selling pressure, and ETF inflows to gauge whether the market is overheated or entering a favorable accumulation zone. When the Heat Macro Phase reaches high values near 50%, it typically signals that these components are at their upper historical bounds—suggesting an overheated market that may be nearing a distribution phase or a correction. Conversely, readings closer to 30% reflect cooler market conditions: lower profit-taking, modest ETF activity, and minimal LTH selling. These scenarios often indicate that the market is undervalued and ripe for accumulation. Currently, the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase sits at 44%, putting it squarely in the neutral zone. Adler explains that this level reflects a balanced market environment—neither overbought nor undervalued. There’s no clear dominance by bulls or bears. Profit-taking is beginning to accelerate, but it hasn’t reached a level that would suggest a broader exit is underway. This mid-range reading aligns with Bitcoin’s recent price action, which has remained in a tight consolidation for over two weeks. As the metric hovers in neutral territory, it reinforces the idea that the next significant move—whether upward toward new highs or downward in a correction—will depend entirely on upcoming price behavior. For now, the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase acts as a market barometer, signaling patience as investors wait for the next breakout or breakdown to confirm direction. Related Reading: Bitcoin Demand Builds at $117K: Cost Basis Distribution Defines Key Support Level BTC Price Action Details: Tight Consolidation Bitcoin continues to consolidate between well-defined support and resistance levels, currently trading at $118,269.81 on the 12-hour chart. The price action has remained confined within a horizontal range, with upper resistance at $122,077 and strong support at $115,724. This range has persisted for over two weeks, reflecting a phase of indecision where neither bulls nor bears have asserted dominance. The 50, 100, and 200 SMAs—located at $116,342, $111,334, and $106,668, respectively—are all trending upward, suggesting that the broader structure remains bullish. BTC is currently trading above all key moving averages, which are acting as dynamic support. However, volume has decreased significantly, indicating a lack of conviction from both sides of the market. Related Reading: Abraxas Capital Faces $100M Unrealized Loss On $800M Crypto Short Positions – Details The tightening structure suggests that a breakout is approaching. If buyers manage to push BTC above $122K with strong volume, the next leg higher toward new all-time highs could follow. On the other hand, a breakdown below $115K would invalidate the current setup and open the door to a deeper correction. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

In a recent expert commentary, executives from BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager and a leading issuer of cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs), identified a significant trend in the cryptocurrency market, particularly for Bitcoin (BTC).  They foresee a major surge ahead, driven by recent US legislative developments such as the signing of the GENIUS Act. They assert that these developments bolster the role of stablecoins as key players in the future of digital payments. New Regulatory Landscape For Stablecoins Central to BlackRock’s analysis is the recently enacted GENIUS Act, legislation that aims to establish a comprehensive framework for stablecoins as a means of payment.  Stablecoins, digital tokens pegged to traditional currencies such as the US dollar, are gaining significant traction among traditional finance firms seeking to modernize their transactions, and could solidify the dollar’s dominance in global markets.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Demand Drops Among US Investors—Is a Price Correction Coming? Though their current market share is about 7%—equating to approximately $250 billion—the rapid adoption of stablecoins since 2020 indicates a growing acceptance within the financial landscape.   The GENIUS Act delineates stablecoins as payment methods rather than investment products, which includes provisions to prohibit interest payments and restrict issuance to federally regulated banks and select nonbanks.  This regulatory framework is poised to create a tokenized ecosystem centered around the US dollar, facilitating easier access for users in emerging markets while potentially limiting adoption in major economies due to the ban on interest payments.  Additionally, the act specifies the types of assets that stablecoin issuers can hold in reserve, predominantly consisting of repurchase agreements, money market funds, and US Treasury bills with short maturities.  Notably, major stablecoin issuers like Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC) currently hold over $120 billion in Treasury bills, yet this represents only a small fraction of the total outstanding US Treasury bills. BlackRock Optimistic About Bitcoin’s Potential  BlackRock’s commentary also suggests that while the demand for Treasury bills may increase as the stablecoin market grows, the overall impact on yields could be limited.  This is due to a likely offsetting shift of funds from similar assets rather than generating significant new demand. Furthermore, the US Treasury’s inclination to increase short-term debt issuance to address persistent budget deficits may also dampen any upward pressure on yields. Beyond US borders, other regions are also taking steps to regulate stablecoins. Hong Kong is implementing new regulations aimed at fostering innovation in stablecoins, while Europe is exploring the concept of a digital euro, albeit with limitations to protect traditional banks.  Related Reading: XRP Dormant Coins On The Move: Reason Behind Price Plunge? Should other nations allow interest-bearing stablecoins or pursue central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), the US dollar’s role in trade finance could be at risk, the experts assert, potentially prompting the US to reconsider its stance on interest payments. As digital assets continue to gain mainstream acceptance, the combination of regulatory support and US administration backing suggests a future where Bitcoin and stablecoins play a more integral role in financial systems.  BlackRock remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s potential as a distinct return driver and a key asset in diversified investment portfolios. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Strategy (MSTR) — recognized as the world’s largest Bitcoin (BTC) treasury company — has made headlines with the successful closing of its initial public offering (IPO) of 28,011,111 shares of variable rate series A perpetual stretch preferred stock. Priced at $90 per share, this offering stands out as the largest US IPO of 2025 and one of the most significant crypto-related offerings in recent years, to which STRC is projected to commence trading on the Nasdaq Global Select Market around July 30, 2025. Strategy Set To Boost Bitcoin Holdings  According to the official announcement issued on Tuesday, the IPO generated gross proceeds of approximately $2.521 billion, with net proceeds estimated at around $2.474 billion after accounting for underwriting discounts and offering expenses.  Related Reading: Ethereum Price To $20,000? ETH Is Mirroring Bitcoin’s Move From 2021 Strategy plans to utilize these funds to acquire 21,021 BTC at an average price of $117,256 each. This acquisition will increase the company’s total Bitcoin holdings to approximately 628,791 Bitcoin, amassed at an aggregate cost of about $46.8 billion, translating to an average purchase price of $73,227 per bitcoin, inclusive of related fees and expenses. These strategic moves have led analysts to anticipate a notable rebound for Strategy’s stock. As reported by NewsBTC, amid a positive shift in Wall Street’s outlook, they are projecting an 84% reduction in the company’s loss per share year-over-year for the second quarter.  Analysts expect Strategy to achieve profitability of $7.30 per share this year, marking a remarkable 209% increase compared to the previous year. MSTR Price Target Raised The bullish sentiment surrounding Strategy stock has intensified, particularly following a price upgrade from TD Cowen. Several analysts have revised their price targets upward, reflecting heightened confidence in the company’s strategic trajectory.  Barclays analyst Ramsey El-Assal has adjusted his price target for MSTR from $421 to $475, maintaining an “Overweight” rating that underscores his belief in the company’s initiatives.  Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Brett Knoblauch slightly lowered his price target from $619 to $614 but retained an “Overweight” rating, expressing faith in Strategy’s ability to maintain its premium net asset value while continuing to expand its Bitcoin holdings. Related Reading: XRP Dormant Coins On The Move: Reason Behind Price Plunge? Analysts at H.C. Wainwright also raised their price target from $480 to $521 for MSTR, citing the company’s revised guidance for 2025 and its ambitious capital-raising plans.  The report further notes that out of 13 analysts covering the stock, 11 recommend a “Strong Buy,” one suggests a “Moderate Buy,” and another has issued a “Strong Sell” rating. The consensus price target currently stands at $543.62, while TD Cowen’s highest target reaches $680. As of this writing, MSTR closed the trading session dropping 9% to its current valuation of $398 per share. Bitcoin, on the other hand, consolidates just 4% below its all-time high at $117,250. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Data shows the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap recently broke its longest ever streak of positive values. Here’s what this could mean for the market. Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap Turned Negative Recently In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about the recent trend in the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap. The “Coinbase Premium Gap” refers to an indicator that keeps track of the difference between the BTC price listed on Coinbase (USD pair) and that on Binance (USDT pair). The former cryptocurrency exchange is primarily used by US-based investors, especially large institutional entities. The latter, on the other hand, has a global userbase. As such, the Coinbase Premium Gap essentially tells us about how the buying or selling behaviors differ between the American and foreign whales. Related Reading: XRP Dormant Coins On The Move: Reason Behind Price Plunge? When the value of the metric is positive, it means the cryptocurrency is listed for a higher price on Coinbase than Binance. Such a trend implies buying pressure is stronger (or selling pressure is weaker) on the former as compared to the latter. On the other hand, the indicator having a negative value implies Binance is the platform observing a net higher accumulation as its users have pushed BTC to a higher value than on Coinbase. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 30-hour moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap over the past year and a half: As displayed in the above graph, the 30-hour MA Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap has mostly held a positive value for a while now, indicating that Coinbase users have been buying. This accumulation was so consistent earlier that it managed to reach a streak of 94 days, but recently, a dip into the negative territory finally broke it. “This was the longest streak in history,” notes the analyst. Since the start of 2024, US institutional investors have generally played a driving role in the market, with the price often showing correlation to the Coinbase Premium Gap. Given this pattern, a pivot to selling from this group can naturally be a bearish sign for Bitcoin. Related Reading: Ethereum Exchange Reserve Plummets: Over 1 Million ETH Withdrawn The chart shared by Maartunn shows more of a long-term view of the indicator. So, here is another graph, this one from CryptoQuant author IT Tech, that shows how the metric’s fluctuations have looked on a higher resolution over the past month: From the chart, it’s apparent that the metric has seen multiple drops into the negative zone recently, with the latest one coming during the past day. “The demand in the US Market is weakening,” says the analyst. “Caution is necessary.” BTC Price Bitcoin has been unable to find a direction as its price is still floating around $117,700. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

Market expert Mark Moss has drawn the crypto community’s attention to an indicator that has perfectly nailed Bitcoin cycle tops. Based on this indicator, the expert revealed that the cycle top is unlikely to happen this year, as other analysts may have predicted.  Pi Cycle Top Indicator Reveals Next Bitcoin Cycle Top In an X post, Moss stated that the indicator is predicting a Bitcoin cycle top in the first quarter of 2027, not at the end of this year. He made this comment while describing the Pi Cycle Top indicator as the “Holy Grail” of Bitcoin indicators. The expert noted that the indicator nailed the Bitcoin cycle tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021.  Related Reading: Analyst Sounds Alarm For 50% Crash If Bitcoin Doesn’t Make A New ATH Soon Moss admitted that this latest cycle top prediction is hard to believe, as everyone is expecting Bitcoin to peak in the fourth quarter of this year. However, the Pi Cycle Top indicator suggests that the Bitcoin cycle top will occur in Q1 2027 and that the BTC price could reach $395,000 by then.  Crypto analyst Rekt Capital also recently alluded to the Pi Cycle Top indicator, noting how it was hinting at a possible cycle extension. He also confirmed that the indicator predicts a Bitcoin cycle top will occur in Q1 2027, with the flagship crypto possibly reaching $400,000. The analyst noted that, based on previous cycles, the Bitcoin cycle top is expected to happen in the fourth quarter of this year.  However, the recent BTC rallies have caused the Moving Averages (MA) to shift to higher prices. With these MAs shifting with every Bitcoin rally, Rekt Capital stated that it could take at least until mid-early 2026 before a Pi Cycle Top crossover occurs. However, the analyst advised that it is still important to be cautious about Q4 of this year and possibly develop an exit strategy in case the Bitcoin cycle peaks then.  The BTC 4-Year Cycle Is Over In a recent podcast, Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart and Bitwise Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan gave their opinions on whether the 4-year Bitcoin cycle is over. Seyffart stated that he expects the amplitude of these cycles to reduce as more institutional investors enter the BTC ecosystem.  Related Reading: The Final Bitcoin Act: Here’s What To Expect As BTC Trends Sideways Based on his statement, a Bitcoin cycle top might not happen as many expect, as the analyst predicts there won’t be massive drawdowns again with the flagship crypto maturing. On the other hand, the Bitwise CIO opined that the 4-year cycle for BTC is over.  He explained that the factors that drove this four-year cycle are now watered down. Meanwhile, there is a growing inflow into Bitcoin, which would continue to drive demand. In line with this, Hougan declared that 2026 will be an up year for Bitcoin.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $119,000, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing a period of stability after its recent upward climb, currently trading around $118,502, marking a slight daily decline of about 0.3%. Despite approaching the notable resistance level at $120,000, the leading cryptocurrency has shown little indication of breaking through decisively. This quiet trading environment has drawn the attention of analysts, prompting a detailed examination of the current market sentiment and investor behavior patterns. A recent report by Arab Chain, an analyst at CryptoQuant, suggests there is waning interest among US investors at Bitcoin’s current price level. Related Reading: Bitcoin Remains Flat—And The SSR Ratio Might Explain Why Declining Demand from US Investors Utilizing the Coinbase Premium Index, a measure that compares Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase against other exchanges, Arab Chain highlights a clear downward trend in demand from American investors as prices have risen above the $105,000 mark. Arab Chain notes that although the Coinbase Premium Index remains slightly positive, indicating a minimal premium on Bitcoin in US markets, the significant reduction in this premium suggests declining enthusiasm at current price levels. Historically, strong buying interest from US investors has typically occurred when Bitcoin was priced under $105,000, suggesting that current valuations may be too elevated for many investors seeking favorable entry points. The analyst specifically noted: The index shows a significant decline in U.S. investor demand for Bitcoin. However, it remains in positive territory, indicating U.S. investors are not as active in purchasing Bitcoin at current prices compared to when it traded below $105,000. The trend suggests many potential buyers might be holding off, anticipating better opportunities should prices dip again. Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Begin Profit-Taking Adding further context, another CryptoQuant analyst, Burak Kesmeci, identified emerging patterns among long-term Bitcoin holders at the key psychological resistance level of $120,000.  According to Kesmeci, long-term holders have recently transitioned into net-negative territory, signaling initial phases of profit-taking. Such moves typically indicate that veteran investors, many of whom may have held Bitcoin through previous market cycles, are beginning to liquidate portions of their holdings to capitalize on recent gains. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Surges 28% as Metaplanet Adds $93M BTC — Analysts Eye $111K as Strategic Buy Zone Kesmeci highlighted the importance of monitoring this activity closely, pointing specifically to institutional involvement: One significant case to note is Galaxy Digital, reported to have sold approximately 80,000 BTC. Such sizeable institutional activity indicates this is more than typical retail profit-taking. This development raises questions regarding future market behavior, whether the current sell-off by larger holders represents strategic repositioning or signals broader market concerns. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin trades at a critical level, holding steady above $118,000 but failing to gain momentum for a breakout. Price action has continued to tighten over the past several days, and analysts now anticipate a major move once either key supply zones are absorbed or demand breaks below. The market sits on edge, waiting for confirmation of the next trend. Related Reading: Bitcoin Demand Builds at $117K: Cost Basis Distribution Defines Key Support Level Fresh data from CryptoQuant highlights a notable shift in long-term holder (LTH) behavior. At $118K, LTH supply began to decline, signaling the start of a distribution phase. These holders, known for accumulating during downtrends and selling into strength, are now gradually offloading their positions. This transition often marks the later stages of a bullish trend and echoes patterns from previous macro cycles. As Bitcoin struggles to break past resistance and LTHs reduce exposure, pressure continues to build. A clean breakout above the current range could reignite momentum and drive BTC to new highs, while a break below support may trigger a sharper correction. Either way, the current standoff won’t last much longer. The coming days could bring the decisive move that sets the tone for Bitcoin’s next major leg. LTH Distribution Begins As Bitcoin Mirrors Fall 2024 Pattern Top analyst Axel Adler has highlighted a key development in Bitcoin’s current structure. According to Adler, LTH supply has declined by 52,000 BTC so far, marking a significant shift in behavior. These holders, typically seen as the market’s most patient participants, are now beginning to reduce their exposure—just as Bitcoin remains locked in a tight consolidation range. This shift from accumulation to distribution closely mirrors the LTH behavior seen during fall 2024, when Bitcoin climbed from $65,000 to $100,000. In that period, long-term investors steadily sold into strength as the market pushed higher, locking in profits as late-stage momentum kicked in. Adler suggests that if the current trend continues, the distribution phase will intensify with each price leg up—just as it did in previous macro cycles. The timing of this transition is critical. Bitcoin continues to hover just below all-time highs, while altcoins have begun to show signs of increased volatility. As Ethereum and other major assets begin to move more aggressively, capital rotation may accelerate. Whether this benefits or pressures Bitcoin remains to be seen. Related Reading: TRON Sees $1B USDT Mint: Liquidity Wave Incoming? BTC Holds Steady As Tight Range Continues Bitcoin remains in a tight consolidation range between $115,724 and $122,077, with the 4-hour chart showing price currently hovering around $118,817. After bouncing from the lower boundary last week, BTC has managed to recover and now trades above the 50 SMA ($118,175), 100 SMA ($118,228), and well above the 200 SMA ($113,777). These moving averages have flattened, reflecting the ongoing equilibrium between buyers and sellers. Despite several tests of the $118K zone, BTC continues to respect the key support levels, showing resilience as selling pressure remains muted. Volume, however, remains low—suggesting that traders are still in wait-and-see mode, looking for a decisive breakout before committing to larger positions. Related Reading: Ethereum CME Futures Open Interest Hits Record $7.85B – Is ETH Overheating? The upper resistance at $122K remains untouched since mid-July, and each approach has been met with rejection. A clean break above this level with volume confirmation would signal a continuation of the broader uptrend and could trigger a move toward new all-time highs. On the downside, a break below $115K would invalidate the current structure and likely lead to increased volatility. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Ray Dalio, the billionaire behind Bridgewater Associates, says people should think about putting 15% of their money into gold or Bitcoin. His call comes as America’s debt nears the $37 trillion mark. He argues that holding hard assets can help when paper money loses value. Related Reading: Countdown To August 15: What XRP Investors Need To Know “If you were optimizing your portfolio for the best return-to-risk ratio, you would have around 15% of your money in Bitcoin or gold,” Dalio said during the Master Investor podcast this week. Dalio admits he owns only a little Bitcoin and still leans toward gold. But he’s clear that splitting that 15% between the two is up to each investor. Optimizing For A Debt‑Strained Dollar According to Dalio, the US government will need to sell about $12 trillion more in treasuries over the next year to deal with its growing bill. He pointed out that recent Treasury data shows borrowing in the third quarter of 2025 could hit $1 trillion—$453 billion above earlier estimates—and another $590 billion in the fourth quarter. He warns that printing or selling more debt tends to weaken a currency. That’s why gold and Bitcoin, which aren’t tied to any central bank’s balance sheet, can act as buffers against plain old dollars. Balancing Gold And Bitcoin Dalio said gold remains his go‑to choice. It has centuries of track record against inflation and crisis. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is newer and can swing wildly in price. It’s trading around $118,862, roughly 4% below its July 14 all‑time high of $123,250. While its ups and downs can add spice to returns, they can also give some investors sleepless nights. Dalio suggests you pick a mix that feels right. If you hate big price moves, tilt toward gold. If you can stomach Bitcoin’s roller‑coaster, you might give it a bigger slice. Midway Through The Conversation On Risk He raised the idea back in January 2022 with 1% to 2% in Bitcoin. Now he’s tripling that bucket. That jump shows how fast the mood can shift when national debt climbs. Dalio noted that other Western nations like the United Kingdom face the same “debt doom loop” he sees in the US. He said their currencies may lag behind hard assets, making gold and Bitcoin effective diversifiers when government bills keep piling up. Related Reading: Memecoins, NFTs Get Called Out By Their Own Architect: ‘Zero Intrinsic Value’ Role Of Reserve Currencies Despite his nod to Bitcoin, Dalio said it won’t replace the dollar or euro for central banks. He argued that public blockchains lack privacy. Every transaction is visible, so governments could still watch and intervene. Gold, in contrast, can change hands in private after it leaves the vault. That gives it an edge when you want to keep your holdings off the radar. Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView

As the Bitcoin price hovers just 4% below its all-time high of $123,000, crypto analyst Doctor Profit has issued a new report that could spark increased bullish sentiment among investors, suggesting that a new rally could be on the horizon.  Bitcoin Price Poised For Growth After Major Trade Deal In a recent post on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), Doctor Profit highlighted a significant technical development for the Bitcoin price, noting that the cryptocurrency has recently broken through a diagonal resistance line on its monthly chart—a barrier that had proven insurmountable for several months. According to the analyst, the Bitcoin price faced repeated rejections at this crucial resistance level from November 2024 through February 2025.  However, this month marked a decisive breakout for the cryptocurrency, followed by a successful retest of the $114,000 level last Friday and a “strong bullish impulse” forming.  Related Reading: Memecoins, NFTs Get Called Out By Their Own Architect: ‘Zero Intrinsic Value’ Doctor Profit emphasized that this breakthrough signals a potential upward movement, asserting that the market is primed for the next leg up. He even predicts that the “bullish chart” will soon dominate discussions across social media. Adding to this optimism are recent developments surrounding a US-Europe trade deal announced on Monday by the White House. Doctor Profit noted that tariffs have been a lingering concern for both the Bitcoin price and the broader stock market, suppressing momentum.  However, the analyst asserts that the announcement of a new trade agreement—valued at $750 billion in US energy exports and $600 billion in EU investments—has alleviated some of that pressure.  Links Between M2 Money Supply And BTC’s Potential On a macroeconomic level, Doctor Profit highlighted the M2 money supply as a crucial factor influencing the Bitcoin price trajectory. Following a 25% expansion of M2 in 2020 due to pandemic-related measures, Bitcoin experienced an 800% rally.  Currently, M2 has increased by 2.3% since the beginning of 2025, despite ongoing quantitative tightening measures by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The analyst  believes that this indicates that the Fed may be poised to adopt more aggressive monetary policies in the near future. Related Reading: Ethereum Is About To Breakout Of Massive Consolidation Toward $5,000 Historical data suggests a correlation between increases in M2 and Bitcoin price movements, with the analyst estimating a potential upside of 30-35% for Bitcoin with every 1% increase in M2.  The most significant expansion has occurred in recent months, particularly between May and June 2025, when M2 saw a monthly increase of 0.63%.  Given Bitcoin’s typical lag in response to M2 changes—approximately 60 to 90 days—there is speculation that this could lead to a 15-17.5% rally in the coming weeks, positioning Bitcoin toward the $130,000 mark. Looking ahead, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is slated for Wednesday, with a strong expectation of no interest rate cuts. As of this writing, the market’s leading cryptocurrency trades at $117,569, up nearly 71% on a year-to-date (YTD) basis.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin’s price is beginning to recover after a brief period of stagnation, trading at $118,945 at the time of writing. This marks a 1% increase over the past 24 hours, with the asset briefly reaching a high of $119,754 during the same period. The recent upward movement suggests a cautious return of buying interest, though analysts warn that market participants should remain aware of deeper trends influencing price action. Among the key voices weighing in is CryptoQuant contributor Yonsei Dent, who highlighted a familiar pattern in Bitcoin’s current on-chain metrics. Related Reading: Bitcoin Endures One Of The Most Intense Bear Weeks Of This Bull Cycle – Details MVRV Ratio Signals Possible Peak by Late August According to Dent, the 365-day moving average (DMA) of the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has proven to be a historically useful indicator of market cycle tops. Drawing parallels to 2021, when the MVRV 365DMA formed a double-top pattern followed by the start of a bear market, Dent suggested that Bitcoin could be approaching a similar inflection point. In his analysis titled “MVRV Points to a Potential Cycle Peak — Late August May Be the Real Turning Point,” Dent noted that the structure of the current cycle resembles the double-top formation seen in 2021. He projects that if the same six-month interval is applied, the market could experience a peak by around September 10. However, Dent emphasized that the MVRV ratio is a lagging indicator, and thus a reversal in Bitcoin’s trend may begin as early as late August. The analyst also linked this potential turning point to broader macroeconomic narratives, such as speculation around Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. While Dent did not predict an exact price top, he urged market participants to treat this period as one that requires heightened attention to risk management. “Let on-chain timing guide your strategy — now is the time to tighten risk management and stay nimble,” he advised. Bitcoin Liquidity Metrics Suggest Potential Saturation In a separate post, CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain examined the Bitcoin Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) as another tool to evaluate current market strength. The SSR compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to that of all stablecoins, offering a window into liquidity dynamics within the crypto ecosystem. Arab Chain explained that stablecoins act as the fiat-equivalent within the market, and their supply levels relative to Bitcoin help measure the purchasing power available to fuel price movements. According to Arab Chain, a rising SSR indicates a lower presence of stablecoins relative to Bitcoin, which could mean that price gains are occurring despite limited liquidity. This scenario suggests that the current upward momentum may be encountering diminishing support from new capital inflows. Related Reading: $4B Increase In Bitcoin Open Interest Fueled By Whale Transfers To Exchanges – Details “A continued rise in the indicator may indicate that buying momentum may weaken in the future due to low liquidity,” he wrote, adding that unless stablecoin reserves grow meaningfully in the coming days, Bitcoin’s rally could face resistance. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) surged 28% in July, reaching highs near $123,200, fueled by growing institutional adoption and strategic accumulation. Tokyo-listed Metaplanet led the charge, purchasing 780 BTC worth $93 million, bringing its total holdings to 17,132 BTC valued at $1.7 billion. The firm aims to acquire 1% of Bitcoin’s total supply, 210,000 BTC, by 2027, signaling aggressive long-term confidence. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short Squeeze Incoming As Market Makers Set Trap To Go Above $123,000 Despite Bitcoin’s rally, Metaplanet’s stock fell 40% year-to-date due to valuation concerns and investor profit-taking. Nonetheless, this divergence reflects a broader shift, with Japanese firms increasingly adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Analysts suggest that Metaplanet’s strategy could shape institutional treasury models in volatile macroeconomic conditions. Bitcoin's price trends to the upside on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview $111,500: Bitcoin’s New Strategic Buy Zone Technical analysts now view the $111,500 level as a key support zone, marking a significant resistance-turned-support flip. Markus Thielen of Matrixport highlights this level as a strategic entry point for investors. A confirmed bounce could propel BTC toward a breakout above $120,000, pushing a bullish momentum. Consequently, traders are advised to watch for strong volume confirmation around $111K, employing staggered entries and tight stop-losses. While dips below $112K may present buying opportunities, a sustained decline would require reassessment of risk. The level’s psychological significance aligns with historical resistance flips that often precede long-term rallies. Altcoin-Focused Funds Suffer as BTC Dominates While Bitcoin thrives, altcoin-heavy liquid crypto funds have seen dramatic losses. Asymmetric Capital’s Liquid Alpha Fund collapsed by 78% despite Bitcoin’s gains, due to overexposure to speculative altcoins and excessive leverage. Institutional capital is now favoring utility-driven, revenue-generating projects over memecoins. Experts like Rajiv Patel-O’Connor emphasize that future crypto investments must meet stricter criteria; liquidity, transparency, and token utility. Related Reading: Want Bitcoin Or Ether Exposure? Advisors Are Quietly Using Treasury Stocks—CEO As Bitcoin continues to cement its role as a digital reserve asset, the market is clearly pivoting toward sustainable fundamentals. Bottom Line Bitcoin’s rally, especially with the institutional momentum and technical bullish signals, marks a pivotal moment for crypto markets. The $111,500 zone could be a rare opportunity for savvy investors seeking structured entry amid broader altcoin turmoil. Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview

The Bitcoin Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) points at thinning liquidity in the sector, potentially explaining the consolidation in the asset’s price. Bitcoin SSR Rose Alongside The Earlier Price Surge As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the Bitcoin SSR has witnessed an increase recently. The “SSR” here refers to an indicator that measures the ratio between the market cap of Bitcoin and that of the stablecoins. Related Reading: Bitcoin Open Interest Sets New Record As Price Plunges To $115,000 Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies that peg themselves to the price of a fiat currency, with USD-based tokens being the most popular. Investors generally use stables when they want to escape the volatility associated with other digital assets like Bitcoin. Many holders who keep their capital stashed away in stablecoins, however, eventually plan to re-invest into volatile coins. As such, some view the supply of these cryptocurrencies as a measure of the ‘dry powder‘ available in the sector for BTC and other assets. Since the SSR compares the market cap of Bitcoin against this dry powder, it tells us about which part of the sector investor capital is dominating right now. When the metric goes up, it means that capital is transferring from stablecoins to BTC or if both are receiving inflows, that the latter is just seeing more of them. In either case, relative dry powder is going down. Similarly, the metric registering a decline implies capital is shifting towards stables. Such a trend can be a sign that investors have more purchasing power relative to BTC’s market cap. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin SSR over the last few months: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin SSR tracked the earlier BTC price surge almost 1:1, indicating that the increase in the asset’s market cap outpaced any rise in stablecoin liquidity. Since the peak in the cryptocurrency’s price, the indicator has declined a bit, but its value still remains at a significant level of 18.8. This means that the asset’s total value is currently 18.8 times the supply of the stablecoins. “This indicates a temporary saturation in the market unless we see additional stablecoins entering,” notes the quant. The recent high values in the Bitcoin SSR may at least be in part behind the consolidation that the cryptocurrency has been facing. Related Reading: This Bitcoin Metric Often Flags Turning Points—What’s It Saying Now? It now remains to be seen where the metric would go next. A drop in its value would naturally suggest stablecoins are witnessing inflows, which could potentially set up the next leg in the BTC rally. BTC Price Bitcoin briefly declined below $115,000 on Friday, but the coin has since bounced back as its price is now trading around $118,800. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

Yesterday, Bitcoin (BTC) once again faced rejection around the $120,000 resistance level after briefly reaching a high of $119,760. At the time of writing, the top cryptocurrency is trading slightly lower at $118,900. However, a sharp increase in whale inflows to Binance threatens to trigger further downside pressure for the digital asset. Binance Whales Ramp Up Bitcoin Deposits According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor BorisVest, Bitcoin whale activity on Binance has increased significantly in recent days. In particular, the Binance Whale Inflow metric recorded a notable spike on July 25, signalling rising institutional participation in exchange deposits. Related Reading: Bitcoin Flow Pulse Breaks From 2017, 2021 Patterns – What It Means For The Rally On that day alone, the 30-day cumulative inflow to Binance surged by $1.2 billion, fuelling short-term selling pressure across the market. Data from CoinGlass shows that between July 24 and July 25, roughly $141 million worth of BTC long positions were liquidated as a result. It’s worth noting that alongside this spike in whale deposits, retail investors have also been moving their holdings to exchanges. However, their participation remains relatively low in comparison, hinting that recent selling pressure is predominantly whale-driven. The following chart illustrates that while retail inflows have been trending upward for weeks, the sudden increase in whale deposits has introduced additional fragility into Bitcoin’s price structure.  The surge in Binance whale inflows came just before Bitcoin was rejected at the critical $120,000 level. Following this rejection, BTC retraced to the $115,000–$116,000 range, which is now acting as short-term support. The analyst noted: This area is now acting as a short-term support zone. If it fails to hold, a move toward the $110K level becomes increasingly likely. On the other hand, if Bitcoin can bounce strongly from this region, there is still potential to retest $121K and even attempt a new all-time high. BorisVest concluded that BTC’s near-term price trajectory will be determined by how well the market absorbs whale sell-off. Meanwhile, fellow crypto analyst Titan of Crypto remarked that if BTC decisively breaks through the $119,900 level, then it could eye new all-time highs (ATH). What Else Does Exchange Data Suggest? Whale inflows aren’t the only factor spooking investors. BTC reserves on centralized exchanges also recently reached a one-month high, suggesting that some holders may be anticipating a temporary pullback or consolidation phase before resuming the uptrend. Related Reading: Bitcoin Must Defend This Key Support For $180,000 Year-End Target, Analyst Says That said, Binance’s share of BTC spot trading volume recently saw a sharp rise, suggesting that a rally may be on the horizon for the world’s leading cryptocurrency. At press time, BTC trades at $118,926, up 0.4% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant, X, and TradingView.com

Bitcoin continues to consolidate between $115,000 and $120,000, with bulls maintaining control despite the lack of a breakout above $123,000. What stands out in this range-bound structure is the clear demand concentration around $117,000. According to Glassnode’s BTC Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap, this level has consistently attracted buying interest, acting as a key area where capital rotates into Bitcoin. Related Reading: Bitcoin Endures One Of The Most Intense Bear Weeks Of This Bull Cycle – Details The heatmap reveals dense clusters of cost basis activity near key price levels. This reinforces its role as short-term support and a psychological anchor for bulls. As long as this zone holds, the risk of a full breakdown remains limited—even as BTC struggles to reach new highs. However, repeated rejections near $120K and muted momentum raise concerns that upside exhaustion could eventually lead to deeper downside. If demand at $117K begins to fade, price may quickly revisit lower levels in search of fresh support. For now, though, on-chain data shows that accumulation remains healthy, and this zone could be the foundation for Bitcoin’s next attempt to reclaim the highs. $117K Becomes Bitcoin’s Accumulation Stronghold as Market Shifts Bitcoin’s $117,000 level has emerged as a key accumulation zone, with approximately 73,000 BTC now held at this cost basis, according to the latest data from Glassnode. This reinforces the idea that buyers continue to step in on every dip, absorbing selling pressure and stabilizing price action within the current range. The BTC Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap shows a consistent buildup of demand in this area, highlighting investor confidence around this support zone. What makes this cycle particularly unique is the presence of legal clarity and accelerating institutional adoption in the US. Unlike previous cycles, where price action was often driven by retail speculation and extreme volatility, today’s structure appears more measured. Regulatory progress—especially around spot Bitcoin ETFs and clearer custody frameworks—has attracted a wave of long-term capital. This influx of institutional demand is not only stabilizing the market but also making it less reactive to short-term swings. However, Bitcoin’s calm price action may not last much longer. As Ethereum gains momentum, driven by rising open interest and on-chain activity, capital is beginning to rotate into altcoins. Historically, such transitions have marked the end of Bitcoin-led phases and the beginning of broader market expansions. If ETH and altcoins continue to accelerate, Bitcoin’s tight trading range could break—either leading to a catch-up rally or a temporary pause as capital rotates elsewhere. Related Reading: Ethereum CME Futures Open Interest Hits Record $7.85B – Is ETH Overheating? BTC Range Narrows As Price Holds Between Key Levels The 8-hour chart shows Bitcoin consolidating tightly between $115,724 and $122,077, with the price currently hovering around $118,762. Despite a lack of strong momentum, the structure remains bullish as BTC holds above all major moving averages—the 50 SMA ($118,185), 100 SMA ($113,521), and 200 SMA ($109,754). This alignment signals continued trend strength, with short-term dips being supported by buyers. Volume has declined during the consolidation, a typical sign of a neutral phase where market participants await a breakout. Notably, each pullback toward the lower boundary near $115,700 has been met with strong demand, confirming this zone as key support. Meanwhile, resistance at $122,000 continues to cap bullish attempts, forming a clear range that will likely define Bitcoin’s next move. Related Reading: TRON Sees $1B USDT Mint: Liquidity Wave Incoming? If BTC can reclaim $120,000 with a strong surge in volume, a breakout toward new all-time highs above $123,000 becomes likely. Conversely, a breakdown below $115,700 could trigger a sharper correction toward the 100 SMA around $113,500. For now, all eyes remain on whether bulls can sustain pressure and flip resistance, or if sellers regain control near the top of the range. The current setup favors patient accumulation as the market prepares for its next directional move. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

A crypto analyst has issued a bold new forecast on the future trajectory of Bitcoin (BTC), claiming that the era of parabolic bull runs and painful bear markets is over. In its place, he envisions a slower, more institutionally driven path toward long-term growth. Looking ahead, the analyst believes that Bitcoin could reach $1,000,000 in the next decade.  Bitcoin Road To $1,000,000 Will Be Slow In an X social media post, Mitchell Askew, a crypto market expert and the Head of Research at Blockware, shared his long-term bullish outlook for Bitcoin, predicting that the flagship cryptocurrency is set to hit $1,000,000 within the next 10 years. However, he noted that this massive price surge won’t come from explosive bull runs previously seen in 2013 or 2017.  Related Reading: The Final Bitcoin Act: Here’s What To Expect As BTC Trends Sideways According to the analyst, Bitcoin has moved past the age of parabolic price surges followed by crushing drawdowns. Rather than repeating past cycles of 10,000% gains in a year trailed by a 75% crash, the flagship cryptocurrency is now exhibiting a much more controlled and less dramatic growth pattern. He believes that the cryptocurrency’s rise to $1,000,000 could unfold through a cycle of pumps followed by prolonged consolidations, making it a slow climb. This gradual growth style will likely discourage short-term speculators and casual investors, allowing only those with long-term conviction to benefit.  Askew’s bold BTC forecast and speculations about a slower growth trajectory are rooted in his belief that the cryptocurrency’s price action has fundamentally changed following the launch of Spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). The introduction of this investment product in early 2024 marked a turning point for BTC, transforming it into a more stable and institutionalized asset class.  Notably, since the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, the analyst asserts that the most significant drawdown the cryptocurrency has faced is about 30%—a stark contrast to the extreme volatility of the past. While Bitcoin remains volatile by traditional standards, the nature of its price swings has considerably shifted, pointing to broader stabilization in the market.  In this environment, private miners, particularly those affiliated with BlockwareTeam, are expected to benefit the most. By continuously mining at a lower cost and taking advantage of tax incentives like a 100% bonus depreciation on hardware, they stand to profit steadily as Bitcoin climbs higher. Askew believes that this evolution is not overly optimistic or bearish, but rather a logical progression as BTC matures into a mainstream financial asset with increasing institutional involvement.  Analyst Warns Against Unrealistic Short-Term Gains In his analysis, Askew noted that the expectation that Bitcoin could surge to $500,000 in just five months, or that identifying a precise cycle top will lead to easy profits, is now considered unrealistic. The analyst warned investors against overly bullish sentiment in the short term or relying on outdated cycle theories.  Related Reading: Hold On For Dear Life: This Bullish Bitcoin Metric Just Touched A 15-Year High He suggests that trying to time market tops based on past halving cycles may leave investors sidelined while Bitcoin continues its slow and steady climb throughout the Trump administration. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

After a tumultuous week, the Bitcoin price is starting to find its footing again, rising from major support around the $115,000 level. Currently, the pioneer cryptocurrency looks to be on the path of recovery and possibly moving toward new highs this week as momentum picks up. There is also the possibility of a coming short squeeze, as explained by crypto analyst Luca on X, using recent developments that show that the recent crash may have only been temporary. Bitcoin Shows Tendency To Cross $123,000 Again In an X post, Luca pointed to the Bitcoin market makers as the ones behind the recent price movements and that there was a reason for this. The initial move downward looked to be an attempt to flush out late longs as crypto traders tried to take advantage of the frenzy created by the new all-time highs. Related Reading: Ripple CEO Sounds Alarm: If You’re An XRP Investor, You Should See This Then a reversal moved into the works, catching shorters unaware and sweeping liquidity at support levels. This comes as bears were pulled into a false sense of security, believing that the price would continue to decline before being hit with the move back up above $118,000, triggering hundreds of millions of dollars in liquidations. All of this is happening at a time when things like the Bitcoin funding rate were falling. Coinglass data shows the Bitcoin OI-Weighted Funding Rate had fallen briefly below 0.01% on Sunday after reaching as high as 0.0167% earlier in the week on July 23. Luca further revealed that the Bitcoin Premium metric had also fallen back into the negative. Another interesting fact was the fact that the open interest had shot up when the Bitcoin price had declined. Then, once the price began to recover, the open interest began to rise once again, and Luca interprets this as short positions starting to get squeezed. If this squeeze continues, then the Bitcoin price could spike very quickly, taking out tens of thousands of short positions with it. Related Reading: Bitcoin Eyes Bounce off This Support Level In Reversal Campaign For $121,000 BTC Open Interest Tells A Story Of Exposure As the Bitcoin price has bounced between $115,000 and $120,000, the BTC open interest has barreled upwards in response. In fact, this metric sits at all-time high levels, shaking off the market uncertainty as crypto traders continue to open positions to bet on Bitcoin’s next move. The open interest had touched $87.89 billion back on July 15, and since then, it has averaged above $80 billion every day. Amid this, the Binance Long/Short ratio shows that shorters are currently dominating at 53.97% compared to 46.03% for long accounts. This lends credence to Luca’s expectations that the market could see a short squeeze to take out shorters and push the price to new all-time highs. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

A Bitcoin whale from the early 2010s, holding coins mined or acquired in Bitcoin’s infancy, recently awakened and sold 80,000 BTC. The sale was handled by Galaxy Digital, which executed the transfer of over 80,000 BTC (worth $9 billion) on behalf of this client, who is described as a “Satoshi-era” investor.  Despite this massive sale and the volatility that came after, Bitcoin has managed to steady and the ensuing price action shows that bulls were more than prepared to absorb the sell shock. Related Reading: Wall Street’s Bold Bet: Bitcoin Could Hit $200K By December, Banking Giant Says Bitcoin Dips To $115,000, Bulls Quickly Bought The Dip News of the $9 billion Bitcoin sale initially caused price volatility. Bitcoin’s price had recently been trading around $119,000, so the sudden influx of sell orders caused a short-lived pullback. On July 25, as reports of Galaxy’s whale sale spread, BTC/USD swiftly fell to around $114,000 to $115,000.  The sheer size of 80,000 BTC (over 0.4% of total supply) hitting the market had the potential to trigger panic. Indeed, there were signs of profit-taking and higher exchange inflows in the days surrounding the sale. This, in turn, led to a 3.5% drop, which is one of Bitcoin’s steepest intraday dips in weeks, temporarily breaking below the $115,000 support level.  However, it soon became clear that Bitcoin’s bulls were more than prepared to absorb the shock. The price decline bottomed out in mere hours. By the end of that same day, Bitcoin had rebounded above $117,000, and it was trading back in the mid-$117,000. This rapid recovery demonstrated remarkable liquidity and depth in the Bitcoin market. “80,000 BTC, over $9 billion, was sold into open market order books, and Bitcoin barely moved,” observed crypto analyst Joe Consorti, showing how quickly buyers stepped in to counter the selling pressure. Image From X: Joe Consorti Back in earlier years, a sell order of this magnitude could have triggered a double-digit percentage price crash. By contrast, the ecosystem in 2025 handled it with surprising ease. “The entire sale has been fully absorbed by the market,” noted Bitcoin analyst Jason Williams. What’s Next For Bitcoin Price? With the whale’s 80,000 BTC sale now largely in the rearview mirror, the next step is looking ahead to where Bitcoin might go from here. The fact that the market digested a $9 billion sell-off with only minor turbulence has many observers feeling even more bullish about Bitcoin’s trajectory. “We’re going so much higher,” Jason Williams noted. It’s a sentiment shared by several crypto analysts on X, who see the quick recovery as evidence of strong upward momentum. The consensus among bulls is that new all-time highs could be on the horizon in the coming months. Bitcoin already notched a record around $123,000 on July 14, but analysts are still calling for new highs above $130,000, $150,000, or even higher.  Related Reading: Bitcoin’s New Clock: How Wall Street Killed The Old Cycle, According To Expert At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $118,063, up by 0.5% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

According to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, what used to be a near‑perfect four‑year Bitcoin pattern now looks less reliable. Supply cuts, rate moves and crash risks once drove big swings. Now, fresh forces are taking over. Related Reading: Wall Street’s Bold Bet: Bitcoin Could Hit $200K By December, Banking Giant Says Halving’s Impact Shrinks Every Cycle Hougan points out that each Bitcoin halving still cuts new coins by 50% but matters less over time. In early cycles, that shock fueled parabolic runs. Today, with a market cap in the hundreds of billions, the same supply cut is half as important every four years. Back in 2016 and 2020, prices jumped more than 150% around halving events. Now, moves hover under 50% in similar windows. Based on analysis from the Bitwise CIO, interest rates have been friendlier this time around. In 2018 and 2022, tightening by the US Federal Reserve coincided with brutal crypto drops that sent Bitcoin down 72% and 69% from peak to trough. Now, rates are easing or on pause, so crypto often trades up rather than down. Why is the four-year cycle dead? 1) The forces that have created prior four-year cycles are weaker: i) The halving is half as important every four years; ii) The interest rate cycle is positive for crypto, not negative (as it was in 2018 and 2022); iii) Blow-up risk is… https://t.co/F9ybjHEeB5 — Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) July 25, 2025 Institutional Trends Outrun Old Rhythms Hougan highlights that ETFs are the new growth engine—and they run on a 5–10 year timeline. Spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024 and have since taken in over $10 billion in net inflows. That steady stream can’t be pinned to a single four‑year blip. Pensions and endowments are getting ready too. Many big investors only started talking crypto last year, and it takes quarters or years for them to clear internal hurdles. When they finally jump in, their billions could reshape markets far beyond retail waves. ????DID I HEAR SUPER CYCLE??? The four-year cycle is dead and adoption killed it.@Matt_Hougan says we’re going higher in 2026. Early profit takers will be left behind!!! Full break down with @JSeyff and @Matt_Hougan in comments???? pic.twitter.com/Ffn9penapN — Kyle Chassé / DD???? (@kyle_chasse) July 25, 2025 Regulation Gains Traction This Year According to Hougan, regulatory clarity began in January 2025 with new custody rules, tax guidelines and licensing regimes. Those steps cut systemic risk and pave the way for banks and asset managers to roll out crypto services on their platforms. Based on his analysis, the recent Genius Act—passed this month—opened doors on prime‑broker platforms. That means trading desks, clearing houses and research teams can invest billions in weeks and months. This kind of build‑out takes time, but it lasts. Related Reading: Crypto’s Golden Rule Just Got Broken, According To Analyst Treasury Firms Emerge As A Wild Card One fresh cyclical‑style risk Hougan flags is the rise of Treasury companies offering short‑term lending and yield products. If they grow too fast without proper checks, a blow‑up could still trigger a market sell‑off. It’s a new kind of hazard that didn’t exist in past cycles. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView