In a recent expert commentary, executives from BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager and a leading issuer of cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs), identified a significant trend in the cryptocurrency market, particularly for Bitcoin (BTC). They foresee a major surge ahead, driven by recent US legislative developments such as the signing of the GENIUS Act. They assert that these developments bolster the role of stablecoins as key players in the future of digital payments. New Regulatory Landscape For Stablecoins Central to BlackRock’s analysis is the recently enacted GENIUS Act, legislation that aims to establish a comprehensive framework for stablecoins as a means of payment. Stablecoins, digital tokens pegged to traditional currencies such as the US dollar, are gaining significant traction among traditional finance firms seeking to modernize their transactions, and could solidify the dollar’s dominance in global markets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Demand Drops Among US Investors—Is a Price Correction Coming? Though their current market share is about 7%—equating to approximately $250 billion—the rapid adoption of stablecoins since 2020 indicates a growing acceptance within the financial landscape. The GENIUS Act delineates stablecoins as payment methods rather than investment products, which includes provisions to prohibit interest payments and restrict issuance to federally regulated banks and select nonbanks. This regulatory framework is poised to create a tokenized ecosystem centered around the US dollar, facilitating easier access for users in emerging markets while potentially limiting adoption in major economies due to the ban on interest payments. Additionally, the act specifies the types of assets that stablecoin issuers can hold in reserve, predominantly consisting of repurchase agreements, money market funds, and US Treasury bills with short maturities. Notably, major stablecoin issuers like Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC) currently hold over $120 billion in Treasury bills, yet this represents only a small fraction of the total outstanding US Treasury bills. BlackRock Optimistic About Bitcoin’s Potential BlackRock’s commentary also suggests that while the demand for Treasury bills may increase as the stablecoin market grows, the overall impact on yields could be limited. This is due to a likely offsetting shift of funds from similar assets rather than generating significant new demand. Furthermore, the US Treasury’s inclination to increase short-term debt issuance to address persistent budget deficits may also dampen any upward pressure on yields. Beyond US borders, other regions are also taking steps to regulate stablecoins. Hong Kong is implementing new regulations aimed at fostering innovation in stablecoins, while Europe is exploring the concept of a digital euro, albeit with limitations to protect traditional banks. Related Reading: XRP Dormant Coins On The Move: Reason Behind Price Plunge? Should other nations allow interest-bearing stablecoins or pursue central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), the US dollar’s role in trade finance could be at risk, the experts assert, potentially prompting the US to reconsider its stance on interest payments. As digital assets continue to gain mainstream acceptance, the combination of regulatory support and US administration backing suggests a future where Bitcoin and stablecoins play a more integral role in financial systems. BlackRock remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s potential as a distinct return driver and a key asset in diversified investment portfolios. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Strategy (MSTR) — recognized as the world’s largest Bitcoin (BTC) treasury company — has made headlines with the successful closing of its initial public offering (IPO) of 28,011,111 shares of variable rate series A perpetual stretch preferred stock. Priced at $90 per share, this offering stands out as the largest US IPO of 2025 and one of the most significant crypto-related offerings in recent years, to which STRC is projected to commence trading on the Nasdaq Global Select Market around July 30, 2025. Strategy Set To Boost Bitcoin Holdings According to the official announcement issued on Tuesday, the IPO generated gross proceeds of approximately $2.521 billion, with net proceeds estimated at around $2.474 billion after accounting for underwriting discounts and offering expenses. Related Reading: Ethereum Price To $20,000? ETH Is Mirroring Bitcoin’s Move From 2021 Strategy plans to utilize these funds to acquire 21,021 BTC at an average price of $117,256 each. This acquisition will increase the company’s total Bitcoin holdings to approximately 628,791 Bitcoin, amassed at an aggregate cost of about $46.8 billion, translating to an average purchase price of $73,227 per bitcoin, inclusive of related fees and expenses. These strategic moves have led analysts to anticipate a notable rebound for Strategy’s stock. As reported by NewsBTC, amid a positive shift in Wall Street’s outlook, they are projecting an 84% reduction in the company’s loss per share year-over-year for the second quarter. Analysts expect Strategy to achieve profitability of $7.30 per share this year, marking a remarkable 209% increase compared to the previous year. MSTR Price Target Raised The bullish sentiment surrounding Strategy stock has intensified, particularly following a price upgrade from TD Cowen. Several analysts have revised their price targets upward, reflecting heightened confidence in the company’s strategic trajectory. Barclays analyst Ramsey El-Assal has adjusted his price target for MSTR from $421 to $475, maintaining an “Overweight” rating that underscores his belief in the company’s initiatives. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Brett Knoblauch slightly lowered his price target from $619 to $614 but retained an “Overweight” rating, expressing faith in Strategy’s ability to maintain its premium net asset value while continuing to expand its Bitcoin holdings. Related Reading: XRP Dormant Coins On The Move: Reason Behind Price Plunge? Analysts at H.C. Wainwright also raised their price target from $480 to $521 for MSTR, citing the company’s revised guidance for 2025 and its ambitious capital-raising plans. The report further notes that out of 13 analysts covering the stock, 11 recommend a “Strong Buy,” one suggests a “Moderate Buy,” and another has issued a “Strong Sell” rating. The consensus price target currently stands at $543.62, while TD Cowen’s highest target reaches $680. As of this writing, MSTR closed the trading session dropping 9% to its current valuation of $398 per share. Bitcoin, on the other hand, consolidates just 4% below its all-time high at $117,250. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Data shows the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap recently broke its longest ever streak of positive values. Here’s what this could mean for the market. Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap Turned Negative Recently In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about the recent trend in the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap. The “Coinbase Premium Gap” refers to an indicator that keeps track of the difference between the BTC price listed on Coinbase (USD pair) and that on Binance (USDT pair). The former cryptocurrency exchange is primarily used by US-based investors, especially large institutional entities. The latter, on the other hand, has a global userbase. As such, the Coinbase Premium Gap essentially tells us about how the buying or selling behaviors differ between the American and foreign whales. Related Reading: XRP Dormant Coins On The Move: Reason Behind Price Plunge? When the value of the metric is positive, it means the cryptocurrency is listed for a higher price on Coinbase than Binance. Such a trend implies buying pressure is stronger (or selling pressure is weaker) on the former as compared to the latter. On the other hand, the indicator having a negative value implies Binance is the platform observing a net higher accumulation as its users have pushed BTC to a higher value than on Coinbase. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 30-hour moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap over the past year and a half: As displayed in the above graph, the 30-hour MA Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap has mostly held a positive value for a while now, indicating that Coinbase users have been buying. This accumulation was so consistent earlier that it managed to reach a streak of 94 days, but recently, a dip into the negative territory finally broke it. “This was the longest streak in history,” notes the analyst. Since the start of 2024, US institutional investors have generally played a driving role in the market, with the price often showing correlation to the Coinbase Premium Gap. Given this pattern, a pivot to selling from this group can naturally be a bearish sign for Bitcoin. Related Reading: Ethereum Exchange Reserve Plummets: Over 1 Million ETH Withdrawn The chart shared by Maartunn shows more of a long-term view of the indicator. So, here is another graph, this one from CryptoQuant author IT Tech, that shows how the metric’s fluctuations have looked on a higher resolution over the past month: From the chart, it’s apparent that the metric has seen multiple drops into the negative zone recently, with the latest one coming during the past day. “The demand in the US Market is weakening,” says the analyst. “Caution is necessary.” BTC Price Bitcoin has been unable to find a direction as its price is still floating around $117,700. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Market expert Mark Moss has drawn the crypto community’s attention to an indicator that has perfectly nailed Bitcoin cycle tops. Based on this indicator, the expert revealed that the cycle top is unlikely to happen this year, as other analysts may have predicted. Pi Cycle Top Indicator Reveals Next Bitcoin Cycle Top In an X post, Moss stated that the indicator is predicting a Bitcoin cycle top in the first quarter of 2027, not at the end of this year. He made this comment while describing the Pi Cycle Top indicator as the “Holy Grail” of Bitcoin indicators. The expert noted that the indicator nailed the Bitcoin cycle tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021. Related Reading: Analyst Sounds Alarm For 50% Crash If Bitcoin Doesn’t Make A New ATH Soon Moss admitted that this latest cycle top prediction is hard to believe, as everyone is expecting Bitcoin to peak in the fourth quarter of this year. However, the Pi Cycle Top indicator suggests that the Bitcoin cycle top will occur in Q1 2027 and that the BTC price could reach $395,000 by then. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital also recently alluded to the Pi Cycle Top indicator, noting how it was hinting at a possible cycle extension. He also confirmed that the indicator predicts a Bitcoin cycle top will occur in Q1 2027, with the flagship crypto possibly reaching $400,000. The analyst noted that, based on previous cycles, the Bitcoin cycle top is expected to happen in the fourth quarter of this year. However, the recent BTC rallies have caused the Moving Averages (MA) to shift to higher prices. With these MAs shifting with every Bitcoin rally, Rekt Capital stated that it could take at least until mid-early 2026 before a Pi Cycle Top crossover occurs. However, the analyst advised that it is still important to be cautious about Q4 of this year and possibly develop an exit strategy in case the Bitcoin cycle peaks then. The BTC 4-Year Cycle Is Over In a recent podcast, Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart and Bitwise Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan gave their opinions on whether the 4-year Bitcoin cycle is over. Seyffart stated that he expects the amplitude of these cycles to reduce as more institutional investors enter the BTC ecosystem. Related Reading: The Final Bitcoin Act: Here’s What To Expect As BTC Trends Sideways Based on his statement, a Bitcoin cycle top might not happen as many expect, as the analyst predicts there won’t be massive drawdowns again with the flagship crypto maturing. On the other hand, the Bitwise CIO opined that the 4-year cycle for BTC is over. He explained that the factors that drove this four-year cycle are now watered down. Meanwhile, there is a growing inflow into Bitcoin, which would continue to drive demand. In line with this, Hougan declared that 2026 will be an up year for Bitcoin. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $119,000, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing a period of stability after its recent upward climb, currently trading around $118,502, marking a slight daily decline of about 0.3%. Despite approaching the notable resistance level at $120,000, the leading cryptocurrency has shown little indication of breaking through decisively. This quiet trading environment has drawn the attention of analysts, prompting a detailed examination of the current market sentiment and investor behavior patterns. A recent report by Arab Chain, an analyst at CryptoQuant, suggests there is waning interest among US investors at Bitcoin’s current price level. Related Reading: Bitcoin Remains Flat—And The SSR Ratio Might Explain Why Declining Demand from US Investors Utilizing the Coinbase Premium Index, a measure that compares Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase against other exchanges, Arab Chain highlights a clear downward trend in demand from American investors as prices have risen above the $105,000 mark. Arab Chain notes that although the Coinbase Premium Index remains slightly positive, indicating a minimal premium on Bitcoin in US markets, the significant reduction in this premium suggests declining enthusiasm at current price levels. Historically, strong buying interest from US investors has typically occurred when Bitcoin was priced under $105,000, suggesting that current valuations may be too elevated for many investors seeking favorable entry points. The analyst specifically noted: The index shows a significant decline in U.S. investor demand for Bitcoin. However, it remains in positive territory, indicating U.S. investors are not as active in purchasing Bitcoin at current prices compared to when it traded below $105,000. The trend suggests many potential buyers might be holding off, anticipating better opportunities should prices dip again. Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Begin Profit-Taking Adding further context, another CryptoQuant analyst, Burak Kesmeci, identified emerging patterns among long-term Bitcoin holders at the key psychological resistance level of $120,000. According to Kesmeci, long-term holders have recently transitioned into net-negative territory, signaling initial phases of profit-taking. Such moves typically indicate that veteran investors, many of whom may have held Bitcoin through previous market cycles, are beginning to liquidate portions of their holdings to capitalize on recent gains. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Surges 28% as Metaplanet Adds $93M BTC — Analysts Eye $111K as Strategic Buy Zone Kesmeci highlighted the importance of monitoring this activity closely, pointing specifically to institutional involvement: One significant case to note is Galaxy Digital, reported to have sold approximately 80,000 BTC. Such sizeable institutional activity indicates this is more than typical retail profit-taking. This development raises questions regarding future market behavior, whether the current sell-off by larger holders represents strategic repositioning or signals broader market concerns. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin trades at a critical level, holding steady above $118,000 but failing to gain momentum for a breakout. Price action has continued to tighten over the past several days, and analysts now anticipate a major move once either key supply zones are absorbed or demand breaks below. The market sits on edge, waiting for confirmation of the next trend. Related Reading: Bitcoin Demand Builds at $117K: Cost Basis Distribution Defines Key Support Level Fresh data from CryptoQuant highlights a notable shift in long-term holder (LTH) behavior. At $118K, LTH supply began to decline, signaling the start of a distribution phase. These holders, known for accumulating during downtrends and selling into strength, are now gradually offloading their positions. This transition often marks the later stages of a bullish trend and echoes patterns from previous macro cycles. As Bitcoin struggles to break past resistance and LTHs reduce exposure, pressure continues to build. A clean breakout above the current range could reignite momentum and drive BTC to new highs, while a break below support may trigger a sharper correction. Either way, the current standoff won’t last much longer. The coming days could bring the decisive move that sets the tone for Bitcoin’s next major leg. LTH Distribution Begins As Bitcoin Mirrors Fall 2024 Pattern Top analyst Axel Adler has highlighted a key development in Bitcoin’s current structure. According to Adler, LTH supply has declined by 52,000 BTC so far, marking a significant shift in behavior. These holders, typically seen as the market’s most patient participants, are now beginning to reduce their exposure—just as Bitcoin remains locked in a tight consolidation range. This shift from accumulation to distribution closely mirrors the LTH behavior seen during fall 2024, when Bitcoin climbed from $65,000 to $100,000. In that period, long-term investors steadily sold into strength as the market pushed higher, locking in profits as late-stage momentum kicked in. Adler suggests that if the current trend continues, the distribution phase will intensify with each price leg up—just as it did in previous macro cycles. The timing of this transition is critical. Bitcoin continues to hover just below all-time highs, while altcoins have begun to show signs of increased volatility. As Ethereum and other major assets begin to move more aggressively, capital rotation may accelerate. Whether this benefits or pressures Bitcoin remains to be seen. Related Reading: TRON Sees $1B USDT Mint: Liquidity Wave Incoming? BTC Holds Steady As Tight Range Continues Bitcoin remains in a tight consolidation range between $115,724 and $122,077, with the 4-hour chart showing price currently hovering around $118,817. After bouncing from the lower boundary last week, BTC has managed to recover and now trades above the 50 SMA ($118,175), 100 SMA ($118,228), and well above the 200 SMA ($113,777). These moving averages have flattened, reflecting the ongoing equilibrium between buyers and sellers. Despite several tests of the $118K zone, BTC continues to respect the key support levels, showing resilience as selling pressure remains muted. Volume, however, remains low—suggesting that traders are still in wait-and-see mode, looking for a decisive breakout before committing to larger positions. Related Reading: Ethereum CME Futures Open Interest Hits Record $7.85B – Is ETH Overheating? The upper resistance at $122K remains untouched since mid-July, and each approach has been met with rejection. A clean break above this level with volume confirmation would signal a continuation of the broader uptrend and could trigger a move toward new all-time highs. On the downside, a break below $115K would invalidate the current structure and likely lead to increased volatility. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
Ray Dalio, the billionaire behind Bridgewater Associates, says people should think about putting 15% of their money into gold or Bitcoin. His call comes as America’s debt nears the $37 trillion mark. He argues that holding hard assets can help when paper money loses value. Related Reading: Countdown To August 15: What XRP Investors Need To Know “If you were optimizing your portfolio for the best return-to-risk ratio, you would have around 15% of your money in Bitcoin or gold,” Dalio said during the Master Investor podcast this week. Dalio admits he owns only a little Bitcoin and still leans toward gold. But he’s clear that splitting that 15% between the two is up to each investor. Optimizing For A Debt‑Strained Dollar According to Dalio, the US government will need to sell about $12 trillion more in treasuries over the next year to deal with its growing bill. He pointed out that recent Treasury data shows borrowing in the third quarter of 2025 could hit $1 trillion—$453 billion above earlier estimates—and another $590 billion in the fourth quarter. He warns that printing or selling more debt tends to weaken a currency. That’s why gold and Bitcoin, which aren’t tied to any central bank’s balance sheet, can act as buffers against plain old dollars. Balancing Gold And Bitcoin Dalio said gold remains his go‑to choice. It has centuries of track record against inflation and crisis. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is newer and can swing wildly in price. It’s trading around $118,862, roughly 4% below its July 14 all‑time high of $123,250. While its ups and downs can add spice to returns, they can also give some investors sleepless nights. Dalio suggests you pick a mix that feels right. If you hate big price moves, tilt toward gold. If you can stomach Bitcoin’s roller‑coaster, you might give it a bigger slice. Midway Through The Conversation On Risk He raised the idea back in January 2022 with 1% to 2% in Bitcoin. Now he’s tripling that bucket. That jump shows how fast the mood can shift when national debt climbs. Dalio noted that other Western nations like the United Kingdom face the same “debt doom loop” he sees in the US. He said their currencies may lag behind hard assets, making gold and Bitcoin effective diversifiers when government bills keep piling up. Related Reading: Memecoins, NFTs Get Called Out By Their Own Architect: ‘Zero Intrinsic Value’ Role Of Reserve Currencies Despite his nod to Bitcoin, Dalio said it won’t replace the dollar or euro for central banks. He argued that public blockchains lack privacy. Every transaction is visible, so governments could still watch and intervene. Gold, in contrast, can change hands in private after it leaves the vault. That gives it an edge when you want to keep your holdings off the radar. Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView
As the Bitcoin price hovers just 4% below its all-time high of $123,000, crypto analyst Doctor Profit has issued a new report that could spark increased bullish sentiment among investors, suggesting that a new rally could be on the horizon. Bitcoin Price Poised For Growth After Major Trade Deal In a recent post on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), Doctor Profit highlighted a significant technical development for the Bitcoin price, noting that the cryptocurrency has recently broken through a diagonal resistance line on its monthly chart—a barrier that had proven insurmountable for several months. According to the analyst, the Bitcoin price faced repeated rejections at this crucial resistance level from November 2024 through February 2025. However, this month marked a decisive breakout for the cryptocurrency, followed by a successful retest of the $114,000 level last Friday and a “strong bullish impulse” forming. Related Reading: Memecoins, NFTs Get Called Out By Their Own Architect: ‘Zero Intrinsic Value’ Doctor Profit emphasized that this breakthrough signals a potential upward movement, asserting that the market is primed for the next leg up. He even predicts that the “bullish chart” will soon dominate discussions across social media. Adding to this optimism are recent developments surrounding a US-Europe trade deal announced on Monday by the White House. Doctor Profit noted that tariffs have been a lingering concern for both the Bitcoin price and the broader stock market, suppressing momentum. However, the analyst asserts that the announcement of a new trade agreement—valued at $750 billion in US energy exports and $600 billion in EU investments—has alleviated some of that pressure. Links Between M2 Money Supply And BTC’s Potential On a macroeconomic level, Doctor Profit highlighted the M2 money supply as a crucial factor influencing the Bitcoin price trajectory. Following a 25% expansion of M2 in 2020 due to pandemic-related measures, Bitcoin experienced an 800% rally. Currently, M2 has increased by 2.3% since the beginning of 2025, despite ongoing quantitative tightening measures by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The analyst believes that this indicates that the Fed may be poised to adopt more aggressive monetary policies in the near future. Related Reading: Ethereum Is About To Breakout Of Massive Consolidation Toward $5,000 Historical data suggests a correlation between increases in M2 and Bitcoin price movements, with the analyst estimating a potential upside of 30-35% for Bitcoin with every 1% increase in M2. The most significant expansion has occurred in recent months, particularly between May and June 2025, when M2 saw a monthly increase of 0.63%. Given Bitcoin’s typical lag in response to M2 changes—approximately 60 to 90 days—there is speculation that this could lead to a 15-17.5% rally in the coming weeks, positioning Bitcoin toward the $130,000 mark. Looking ahead, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is slated for Wednesday, with a strong expectation of no interest rate cuts. As of this writing, the market’s leading cryptocurrency trades at $117,569, up nearly 71% on a year-to-date (YTD) basis. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s price is beginning to recover after a brief period of stagnation, trading at $118,945 at the time of writing. This marks a 1% increase over the past 24 hours, with the asset briefly reaching a high of $119,754 during the same period. The recent upward movement suggests a cautious return of buying interest, though analysts warn that market participants should remain aware of deeper trends influencing price action. Among the key voices weighing in is CryptoQuant contributor Yonsei Dent, who highlighted a familiar pattern in Bitcoin’s current on-chain metrics. Related Reading: Bitcoin Endures One Of The Most Intense Bear Weeks Of This Bull Cycle – Details MVRV Ratio Signals Possible Peak by Late August According to Dent, the 365-day moving average (DMA) of the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has proven to be a historically useful indicator of market cycle tops. Drawing parallels to 2021, when the MVRV 365DMA formed a double-top pattern followed by the start of a bear market, Dent suggested that Bitcoin could be approaching a similar inflection point. In his analysis titled “MVRV Points to a Potential Cycle Peak — Late August May Be the Real Turning Point,” Dent noted that the structure of the current cycle resembles the double-top formation seen in 2021. He projects that if the same six-month interval is applied, the market could experience a peak by around September 10. However, Dent emphasized that the MVRV ratio is a lagging indicator, and thus a reversal in Bitcoin’s trend may begin as early as late August. The analyst also linked this potential turning point to broader macroeconomic narratives, such as speculation around Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. While Dent did not predict an exact price top, he urged market participants to treat this period as one that requires heightened attention to risk management. “Let on-chain timing guide your strategy — now is the time to tighten risk management and stay nimble,” he advised. Bitcoin Liquidity Metrics Suggest Potential Saturation In a separate post, CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain examined the Bitcoin Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) as another tool to evaluate current market strength. The SSR compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to that of all stablecoins, offering a window into liquidity dynamics within the crypto ecosystem. Arab Chain explained that stablecoins act as the fiat-equivalent within the market, and their supply levels relative to Bitcoin help measure the purchasing power available to fuel price movements. According to Arab Chain, a rising SSR indicates a lower presence of stablecoins relative to Bitcoin, which could mean that price gains are occurring despite limited liquidity. This scenario suggests that the current upward momentum may be encountering diminishing support from new capital inflows. Related Reading: $4B Increase In Bitcoin Open Interest Fueled By Whale Transfers To Exchanges – Details “A continued rise in the indicator may indicate that buying momentum may weaken in the future due to low liquidity,” he wrote, adding that unless stablecoin reserves grow meaningfully in the coming days, Bitcoin’s rally could face resistance. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin (BTC) surged 28% in July, reaching highs near $123,200, fueled by growing institutional adoption and strategic accumulation. Tokyo-listed Metaplanet led the charge, purchasing 780 BTC worth $93 million, bringing its total holdings to 17,132 BTC valued at $1.7 billion. The firm aims to acquire 1% of Bitcoin’s total supply, 210,000 BTC, by 2027, signaling aggressive long-term confidence. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short Squeeze Incoming As Market Makers Set Trap To Go Above $123,000 Despite Bitcoin’s rally, Metaplanet’s stock fell 40% year-to-date due to valuation concerns and investor profit-taking. Nonetheless, this divergence reflects a broader shift, with Japanese firms increasingly adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Analysts suggest that Metaplanet’s strategy could shape institutional treasury models in volatile macroeconomic conditions. Bitcoin's price trends to the upside on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview $111,500: Bitcoin’s New Strategic Buy Zone Technical analysts now view the $111,500 level as a key support zone, marking a significant resistance-turned-support flip. Markus Thielen of Matrixport highlights this level as a strategic entry point for investors. A confirmed bounce could propel BTC toward a breakout above $120,000, pushing a bullish momentum. Consequently, traders are advised to watch for strong volume confirmation around $111K, employing staggered entries and tight stop-losses. While dips below $112K may present buying opportunities, a sustained decline would require reassessment of risk. The level’s psychological significance aligns with historical resistance flips that often precede long-term rallies. Altcoin-Focused Funds Suffer as BTC Dominates While Bitcoin thrives, altcoin-heavy liquid crypto funds have seen dramatic losses. Asymmetric Capital’s Liquid Alpha Fund collapsed by 78% despite Bitcoin’s gains, due to overexposure to speculative altcoins and excessive leverage. Institutional capital is now favoring utility-driven, revenue-generating projects over memecoins. Experts like Rajiv Patel-O’Connor emphasize that future crypto investments must meet stricter criteria; liquidity, transparency, and token utility. Related Reading: Want Bitcoin Or Ether Exposure? Advisors Are Quietly Using Treasury Stocks—CEO As Bitcoin continues to cement its role as a digital reserve asset, the market is clearly pivoting toward sustainable fundamentals. Bottom Line Bitcoin’s rally, especially with the institutional momentum and technical bullish signals, marks a pivotal moment for crypto markets. The $111,500 zone could be a rare opportunity for savvy investors seeking structured entry amid broader altcoin turmoil. Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview
The Bitcoin Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) points at thinning liquidity in the sector, potentially explaining the consolidation in the asset’s price. Bitcoin SSR Rose Alongside The Earlier Price Surge As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the Bitcoin SSR has witnessed an increase recently. The “SSR” here refers to an indicator that measures the ratio between the market cap of Bitcoin and that of the stablecoins. Related Reading: Bitcoin Open Interest Sets New Record As Price Plunges To $115,000 Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies that peg themselves to the price of a fiat currency, with USD-based tokens being the most popular. Investors generally use stables when they want to escape the volatility associated with other digital assets like Bitcoin. Many holders who keep their capital stashed away in stablecoins, however, eventually plan to re-invest into volatile coins. As such, some view the supply of these cryptocurrencies as a measure of the ‘dry powder‘ available in the sector for BTC and other assets. Since the SSR compares the market cap of Bitcoin against this dry powder, it tells us about which part of the sector investor capital is dominating right now. When the metric goes up, it means that capital is transferring from stablecoins to BTC or if both are receiving inflows, that the latter is just seeing more of them. In either case, relative dry powder is going down. Similarly, the metric registering a decline implies capital is shifting towards stables. Such a trend can be a sign that investors have more purchasing power relative to BTC’s market cap. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin SSR over the last few months: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin SSR tracked the earlier BTC price surge almost 1:1, indicating that the increase in the asset’s market cap outpaced any rise in stablecoin liquidity. Since the peak in the cryptocurrency’s price, the indicator has declined a bit, but its value still remains at a significant level of 18.8. This means that the asset’s total value is currently 18.8 times the supply of the stablecoins. “This indicates a temporary saturation in the market unless we see additional stablecoins entering,” notes the quant. The recent high values in the Bitcoin SSR may at least be in part behind the consolidation that the cryptocurrency has been facing. Related Reading: This Bitcoin Metric Often Flags Turning Points—What’s It Saying Now? It now remains to be seen where the metric would go next. A drop in its value would naturally suggest stablecoins are witnessing inflows, which could potentially set up the next leg in the BTC rally. BTC Price Bitcoin briefly declined below $115,000 on Friday, but the coin has since bounced back as its price is now trading around $118,800. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Yesterday, Bitcoin (BTC) once again faced rejection around the $120,000 resistance level after briefly reaching a high of $119,760. At the time of writing, the top cryptocurrency is trading slightly lower at $118,900. However, a sharp increase in whale inflows to Binance threatens to trigger further downside pressure for the digital asset. Binance Whales Ramp Up Bitcoin Deposits According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor BorisVest, Bitcoin whale activity on Binance has increased significantly in recent days. In particular, the Binance Whale Inflow metric recorded a notable spike on July 25, signalling rising institutional participation in exchange deposits. Related Reading: Bitcoin Flow Pulse Breaks From 2017, 2021 Patterns – What It Means For The Rally On that day alone, the 30-day cumulative inflow to Binance surged by $1.2 billion, fuelling short-term selling pressure across the market. Data from CoinGlass shows that between July 24 and July 25, roughly $141 million worth of BTC long positions were liquidated as a result. It’s worth noting that alongside this spike in whale deposits, retail investors have also been moving their holdings to exchanges. However, their participation remains relatively low in comparison, hinting that recent selling pressure is predominantly whale-driven. The following chart illustrates that while retail inflows have been trending upward for weeks, the sudden increase in whale deposits has introduced additional fragility into Bitcoin’s price structure. The surge in Binance whale inflows came just before Bitcoin was rejected at the critical $120,000 level. Following this rejection, BTC retraced to the $115,000–$116,000 range, which is now acting as short-term support. The analyst noted: This area is now acting as a short-term support zone. If it fails to hold, a move toward the $110K level becomes increasingly likely. On the other hand, if Bitcoin can bounce strongly from this region, there is still potential to retest $121K and even attempt a new all-time high. BorisVest concluded that BTC’s near-term price trajectory will be determined by how well the market absorbs whale sell-off. Meanwhile, fellow crypto analyst Titan of Crypto remarked that if BTC decisively breaks through the $119,900 level, then it could eye new all-time highs (ATH). What Else Does Exchange Data Suggest? Whale inflows aren’t the only factor spooking investors. BTC reserves on centralized exchanges also recently reached a one-month high, suggesting that some holders may be anticipating a temporary pullback or consolidation phase before resuming the uptrend. Related Reading: Bitcoin Must Defend This Key Support For $180,000 Year-End Target, Analyst Says That said, Binance’s share of BTC spot trading volume recently saw a sharp rise, suggesting that a rally may be on the horizon for the world’s leading cryptocurrency. At press time, BTC trades at $118,926, up 0.4% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant, X, and TradingView.com
Bitcoin continues to consolidate between $115,000 and $120,000, with bulls maintaining control despite the lack of a breakout above $123,000. What stands out in this range-bound structure is the clear demand concentration around $117,000. According to Glassnode’s BTC Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap, this level has consistently attracted buying interest, acting as a key area where capital rotates into Bitcoin. Related Reading: Bitcoin Endures One Of The Most Intense Bear Weeks Of This Bull Cycle – Details The heatmap reveals dense clusters of cost basis activity near key price levels. This reinforces its role as short-term support and a psychological anchor for bulls. As long as this zone holds, the risk of a full breakdown remains limited—even as BTC struggles to reach new highs. However, repeated rejections near $120K and muted momentum raise concerns that upside exhaustion could eventually lead to deeper downside. If demand at $117K begins to fade, price may quickly revisit lower levels in search of fresh support. For now, though, on-chain data shows that accumulation remains healthy, and this zone could be the foundation for Bitcoin’s next attempt to reclaim the highs. $117K Becomes Bitcoin’s Accumulation Stronghold as Market Shifts Bitcoin’s $117,000 level has emerged as a key accumulation zone, with approximately 73,000 BTC now held at this cost basis, according to the latest data from Glassnode. This reinforces the idea that buyers continue to step in on every dip, absorbing selling pressure and stabilizing price action within the current range. The BTC Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap shows a consistent buildup of demand in this area, highlighting investor confidence around this support zone. What makes this cycle particularly unique is the presence of legal clarity and accelerating institutional adoption in the US. Unlike previous cycles, where price action was often driven by retail speculation and extreme volatility, today’s structure appears more measured. Regulatory progress—especially around spot Bitcoin ETFs and clearer custody frameworks—has attracted a wave of long-term capital. This influx of institutional demand is not only stabilizing the market but also making it less reactive to short-term swings. However, Bitcoin’s calm price action may not last much longer. As Ethereum gains momentum, driven by rising open interest and on-chain activity, capital is beginning to rotate into altcoins. Historically, such transitions have marked the end of Bitcoin-led phases and the beginning of broader market expansions. If ETH and altcoins continue to accelerate, Bitcoin’s tight trading range could break—either leading to a catch-up rally or a temporary pause as capital rotates elsewhere. Related Reading: Ethereum CME Futures Open Interest Hits Record $7.85B – Is ETH Overheating? BTC Range Narrows As Price Holds Between Key Levels The 8-hour chart shows Bitcoin consolidating tightly between $115,724 and $122,077, with the price currently hovering around $118,762. Despite a lack of strong momentum, the structure remains bullish as BTC holds above all major moving averages—the 50 SMA ($118,185), 100 SMA ($113,521), and 200 SMA ($109,754). This alignment signals continued trend strength, with short-term dips being supported by buyers. Volume has declined during the consolidation, a typical sign of a neutral phase where market participants await a breakout. Notably, each pullback toward the lower boundary near $115,700 has been met with strong demand, confirming this zone as key support. Meanwhile, resistance at $122,000 continues to cap bullish attempts, forming a clear range that will likely define Bitcoin’s next move. Related Reading: TRON Sees $1B USDT Mint: Liquidity Wave Incoming? If BTC can reclaim $120,000 with a strong surge in volume, a breakout toward new all-time highs above $123,000 becomes likely. Conversely, a breakdown below $115,700 could trigger a sharper correction toward the 100 SMA around $113,500. For now, all eyes remain on whether bulls can sustain pressure and flip resistance, or if sellers regain control near the top of the range. The current setup favors patient accumulation as the market prepares for its next directional move. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
A crypto analyst has issued a bold new forecast on the future trajectory of Bitcoin (BTC), claiming that the era of parabolic bull runs and painful bear markets is over. In its place, he envisions a slower, more institutionally driven path toward long-term growth. Looking ahead, the analyst believes that Bitcoin could reach $1,000,000 in the next decade. Bitcoin Road To $1,000,000 Will Be Slow In an X social media post, Mitchell Askew, a crypto market expert and the Head of Research at Blockware, shared his long-term bullish outlook for Bitcoin, predicting that the flagship cryptocurrency is set to hit $1,000,000 within the next 10 years. However, he noted that this massive price surge won’t come from explosive bull runs previously seen in 2013 or 2017. Related Reading: The Final Bitcoin Act: Here’s What To Expect As BTC Trends Sideways According to the analyst, Bitcoin has moved past the age of parabolic price surges followed by crushing drawdowns. Rather than repeating past cycles of 10,000% gains in a year trailed by a 75% crash, the flagship cryptocurrency is now exhibiting a much more controlled and less dramatic growth pattern. He believes that the cryptocurrency’s rise to $1,000,000 could unfold through a cycle of pumps followed by prolonged consolidations, making it a slow climb. This gradual growth style will likely discourage short-term speculators and casual investors, allowing only those with long-term conviction to benefit. Askew’s bold BTC forecast and speculations about a slower growth trajectory are rooted in his belief that the cryptocurrency’s price action has fundamentally changed following the launch of Spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). The introduction of this investment product in early 2024 marked a turning point for BTC, transforming it into a more stable and institutionalized asset class. Notably, since the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, the analyst asserts that the most significant drawdown the cryptocurrency has faced is about 30%—a stark contrast to the extreme volatility of the past. While Bitcoin remains volatile by traditional standards, the nature of its price swings has considerably shifted, pointing to broader stabilization in the market. In this environment, private miners, particularly those affiliated with BlockwareTeam, are expected to benefit the most. By continuously mining at a lower cost and taking advantage of tax incentives like a 100% bonus depreciation on hardware, they stand to profit steadily as Bitcoin climbs higher. Askew believes that this evolution is not overly optimistic or bearish, but rather a logical progression as BTC matures into a mainstream financial asset with increasing institutional involvement. Analyst Warns Against Unrealistic Short-Term Gains In his analysis, Askew noted that the expectation that Bitcoin could surge to $500,000 in just five months, or that identifying a precise cycle top will lead to easy profits, is now considered unrealistic. The analyst warned investors against overly bullish sentiment in the short term or relying on outdated cycle theories. Related Reading: Hold On For Dear Life: This Bullish Bitcoin Metric Just Touched A 15-Year High He suggests that trying to time market tops based on past halving cycles may leave investors sidelined while Bitcoin continues its slow and steady climb throughout the Trump administration. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
After a tumultuous week, the Bitcoin price is starting to find its footing again, rising from major support around the $115,000 level. Currently, the pioneer cryptocurrency looks to be on the path of recovery and possibly moving toward new highs this week as momentum picks up. There is also the possibility of a coming short squeeze, as explained by crypto analyst Luca on X, using recent developments that show that the recent crash may have only been temporary. Bitcoin Shows Tendency To Cross $123,000 Again In an X post, Luca pointed to the Bitcoin market makers as the ones behind the recent price movements and that there was a reason for this. The initial move downward looked to be an attempt to flush out late longs as crypto traders tried to take advantage of the frenzy created by the new all-time highs. Related Reading: Ripple CEO Sounds Alarm: If You’re An XRP Investor, You Should See This Then a reversal moved into the works, catching shorters unaware and sweeping liquidity at support levels. This comes as bears were pulled into a false sense of security, believing that the price would continue to decline before being hit with the move back up above $118,000, triggering hundreds of millions of dollars in liquidations. All of this is happening at a time when things like the Bitcoin funding rate were falling. Coinglass data shows the Bitcoin OI-Weighted Funding Rate had fallen briefly below 0.01% on Sunday after reaching as high as 0.0167% earlier in the week on July 23. Luca further revealed that the Bitcoin Premium metric had also fallen back into the negative. Another interesting fact was the fact that the open interest had shot up when the Bitcoin price had declined. Then, once the price began to recover, the open interest began to rise once again, and Luca interprets this as short positions starting to get squeezed. If this squeeze continues, then the Bitcoin price could spike very quickly, taking out tens of thousands of short positions with it. Related Reading: Bitcoin Eyes Bounce off This Support Level In Reversal Campaign For $121,000 BTC Open Interest Tells A Story Of Exposure As the Bitcoin price has bounced between $115,000 and $120,000, the BTC open interest has barreled upwards in response. In fact, this metric sits at all-time high levels, shaking off the market uncertainty as crypto traders continue to open positions to bet on Bitcoin’s next move. The open interest had touched $87.89 billion back on July 15, and since then, it has averaged above $80 billion every day. Amid this, the Binance Long/Short ratio shows that shorters are currently dominating at 53.97% compared to 46.03% for long accounts. This lends credence to Luca’s expectations that the market could see a short squeeze to take out shorters and push the price to new all-time highs. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
A Bitcoin whale from the early 2010s, holding coins mined or acquired in Bitcoin’s infancy, recently awakened and sold 80,000 BTC. The sale was handled by Galaxy Digital, which executed the transfer of over 80,000 BTC (worth $9 billion) on behalf of this client, who is described as a “Satoshi-era” investor. Despite this massive sale and the volatility that came after, Bitcoin has managed to steady and the ensuing price action shows that bulls were more than prepared to absorb the sell shock. Related Reading: Wall Street’s Bold Bet: Bitcoin Could Hit $200K By December, Banking Giant Says Bitcoin Dips To $115,000, Bulls Quickly Bought The Dip News of the $9 billion Bitcoin sale initially caused price volatility. Bitcoin’s price had recently been trading around $119,000, so the sudden influx of sell orders caused a short-lived pullback. On July 25, as reports of Galaxy’s whale sale spread, BTC/USD swiftly fell to around $114,000 to $115,000. The sheer size of 80,000 BTC (over 0.4% of total supply) hitting the market had the potential to trigger panic. Indeed, there were signs of profit-taking and higher exchange inflows in the days surrounding the sale. This, in turn, led to a 3.5% drop, which is one of Bitcoin’s steepest intraday dips in weeks, temporarily breaking below the $115,000 support level. However, it soon became clear that Bitcoin’s bulls were more than prepared to absorb the shock. The price decline bottomed out in mere hours. By the end of that same day, Bitcoin had rebounded above $117,000, and it was trading back in the mid-$117,000. This rapid recovery demonstrated remarkable liquidity and depth in the Bitcoin market. “80,000 BTC, over $9 billion, was sold into open market order books, and Bitcoin barely moved,” observed crypto analyst Joe Consorti, showing how quickly buyers stepped in to counter the selling pressure. Image From X: Joe Consorti Back in earlier years, a sell order of this magnitude could have triggered a double-digit percentage price crash. By contrast, the ecosystem in 2025 handled it with surprising ease. “The entire sale has been fully absorbed by the market,” noted Bitcoin analyst Jason Williams. What’s Next For Bitcoin Price? With the whale’s 80,000 BTC sale now largely in the rearview mirror, the next step is looking ahead to where Bitcoin might go from here. The fact that the market digested a $9 billion sell-off with only minor turbulence has many observers feeling even more bullish about Bitcoin’s trajectory. “We’re going so much higher,” Jason Williams noted. It’s a sentiment shared by several crypto analysts on X, who see the quick recovery as evidence of strong upward momentum. The consensus among bulls is that new all-time highs could be on the horizon in the coming months. Bitcoin already notched a record around $123,000 on July 14, but analysts are still calling for new highs above $130,000, $150,000, or even higher. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s New Clock: How Wall Street Killed The Old Cycle, According To Expert At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $118,063, up by 0.5% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
According to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, what used to be a near‑perfect four‑year Bitcoin pattern now looks less reliable. Supply cuts, rate moves and crash risks once drove big swings. Now, fresh forces are taking over. Related Reading: Wall Street’s Bold Bet: Bitcoin Could Hit $200K By December, Banking Giant Says Halving’s Impact Shrinks Every Cycle Hougan points out that each Bitcoin halving still cuts new coins by 50% but matters less over time. In early cycles, that shock fueled parabolic runs. Today, with a market cap in the hundreds of billions, the same supply cut is half as important every four years. Back in 2016 and 2020, prices jumped more than 150% around halving events. Now, moves hover under 50% in similar windows. Based on analysis from the Bitwise CIO, interest rates have been friendlier this time around. In 2018 and 2022, tightening by the US Federal Reserve coincided with brutal crypto drops that sent Bitcoin down 72% and 69% from peak to trough. Now, rates are easing or on pause, so crypto often trades up rather than down. Why is the four-year cycle dead? 1) The forces that have created prior four-year cycles are weaker: i) The halving is half as important every four years; ii) The interest rate cycle is positive for crypto, not negative (as it was in 2018 and 2022); iii) Blow-up risk is… https://t.co/F9ybjHEeB5 — Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) July 25, 2025 Institutional Trends Outrun Old Rhythms Hougan highlights that ETFs are the new growth engine—and they run on a 5–10 year timeline. Spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024 and have since taken in over $10 billion in net inflows. That steady stream can’t be pinned to a single four‑year blip. Pensions and endowments are getting ready too. Many big investors only started talking crypto last year, and it takes quarters or years for them to clear internal hurdles. When they finally jump in, their billions could reshape markets far beyond retail waves. ????DID I HEAR SUPER CYCLE??? The four-year cycle is dead and adoption killed it.@Matt_Hougan says we’re going higher in 2026. Early profit takers will be left behind!!! Full break down with @JSeyff and @Matt_Hougan in comments???? pic.twitter.com/Ffn9penapN — Kyle Chassé / DD???? (@kyle_chasse) July 25, 2025 Regulation Gains Traction This Year According to Hougan, regulatory clarity began in January 2025 with new custody rules, tax guidelines and licensing regimes. Those steps cut systemic risk and pave the way for banks and asset managers to roll out crypto services on their platforms. Based on his analysis, the recent Genius Act—passed this month—opened doors on prime‑broker platforms. That means trading desks, clearing houses and research teams can invest billions in weeks and months. This kind of build‑out takes time, but it lasts. Related Reading: Crypto’s Golden Rule Just Got Broken, According To Analyst Treasury Firms Emerge As A Wild Card One fresh cyclical‑style risk Hougan flags is the rise of Treasury companies offering short‑term lending and yield products. If they grow too fast without proper checks, a blow‑up could still trigger a market sell‑off. It’s a new kind of hazard that didn’t exist in past cycles. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin experienced heightened volatility on Friday, briefly dipping to a local low of around $114,700 before stabilizing within a tight consolidation range. The price remains capped below the psychological $120,000 mark, with bulls and bears locked in a tug-of-war that has intensified speculation across the market. Despite the pullback, Bitcoin is holding key support, suggesting resilience in the current bullish structure. Related Reading: TRON Drops Q2 Report: Revenue, USDT Dominance Lead Multi-Quarter Highs According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler, this week stands out as one of the most aggressive selling periods of the current bull cycle. Adler notes that only 12 weeks—about 7.3% of the entire cycle—have shown equal or greater selling pressure. This context highlights just how intense the recent market activity has been, with significant profit-taking from investors but no full breakdown in price. The combination of strong selling and price stability has introduced a high level of uncertainty. Market participants are watching closely for confirmation of either a deeper correction or a renewed push to break the $120K barrier. As the week closes, Bitcoin’s ability to maintain its consolidation range could determine the pace and direction of the next major move in this cycle. Bitcoin Holds Strong Amid Heavy Selling Adler highlighted that this week ranks among the top 7% of the most extreme in terms of selling volume during the current Bitcoin bull cycle. Despite the intense selling pressure, Bitcoin has shown notable resilience, recovering to $117,000 by week’s end. This rebound is seen as a positive signal, reflecting bullish strength in the face of aggressive distribution. While Bitcoin remains in a tight consolidation range, its dominance is starting to weaken relative to Ethereum and other major altcoins. This shift has caught the attention of analysts who now view this week as a pivotal moment. A continued decrease in Bitcoin dominance paired with growing strength in altcoins could mark the beginning of the long-anticipated altseason—a period where capital rotates from Bitcoin into alternative cryptocurrencies, driving strong gains across the sector. Still, Bitcoin’s recent recovery and consolidation above key support suggest that its bullish momentum may not be over. If buyers continue to defend the current range, BTC could be gearing up for another leg higher, putting pressure on shorts and reigniting market confidence. Related Reading: $4B Increase In Bitcoin Open Interest Fueled By Whale Transfers To Exchanges – Details BTC Retests Resistance After Strong Recovery Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around $117,867 on the 4-hour chart after recovering sharply from the $115,724 support level. This area has proven to be a critical short-term demand zone, with bulls stepping in aggressively to defend it following a recent dip. The price is now pressing against the 100-period SMA ($117,822), attempting to reclaim this level as support. The structure of the chart shows BTC remains locked in a well-defined consolidation range between $115,724 and $122,077. This week’s retest of the lower boundary and subsequent bounce signals continued interest from buyers, despite strong selling pressure earlier in the week. Volume remains elevated, suggesting active market participation during the recent recovery. Related Reading: Ethereum Whales Accumulate Over $4.1B In ETH In Two Weeks – Details The key to watch now is whether BTC can flip the 100 SMA and hold above $118,000. If confirmed, the next major test will be the upper range resistance at $122,077. A clean breakout above this level could set the stage for new all-time highs. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin faced renewed volatility after a minor pullback interrupted two weeks of tight consolidation just below its all-time high of $123,000. The price briefly dipped near the $115,000 support level but has already begun to recover, signaling that bullish momentum remains intact despite recent selling pressure. Market participants appear to be reacting calmly, with strong demand quickly absorbing the dip. Related Reading: Bitcoin Pullback Remains Within Normal Volatility Range: Drawdown Analysis Shows No Signs Of Panic According to fresh data from CryptoQuant, today’s price movement coincides with a significant increase in open interest across major exchanges. Binance, Bybit, and Gate all recorded sharp spikes in open interest within the last 24 hours, suggesting that traders are positioning aggressively. Notably, these exchanges were among the recipients of large Bitcoin transfers earlier in the day, likely tied to institutional or whale activity. This alignment of price recovery and rising open interest hints at a shift in sentiment. Short-term traders are re-entering the market, while bulls appear ready to defend key levels. As volatility picks up, Bitcoin’s ability to hold and reclaim recent support will determine whether it resumes its upward march or remains range-bound. The coming days could be critical for setting the tone of the next leg in Bitcoin’s price action. Rising Open Interest Signals Growing Volatility According to Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s head of research, over the last 24 hours, open interest surged by approximately $4 billion, indicating that leveraged positions—particularly shorts—have entered the market in large numbers. This spike coincided with significant Bitcoin transfers to major exchanges like Binance and Bybit, which received a substantial portion of today’s large-volume transactions. These developments suggest increased speculative activity as traders anticipate further price movement. The inflow of coins to exchanges, combined with rising open interest, typically signals upcoming volatility. Short sellers appear to be betting on continued downside, but with Bitcoin already recovering from its recent $115,000 dip, this could lead to a short squeeze if momentum shifts back in favor of the bulls. This market shift comes as Ethereum and altcoins show notable strength. Since May, Ethereum has consistently outperformed Bitcoin, aided by institutional accumulation and clearer regulatory signals in the US. As ETH leads the altcoin rally, investors are watching closely to see whether capital rotation from BTC into altcoins continues. Related Reading: Ethereum Whales Accumulate Over $4.1B In ETH In Two Weeks – Details Bitcoin Holds Key Support After Minor Pullback The daily Bitcoin chart shows that BTC remains in a bullish structure despite recent volatility. After briefly consolidating near the $122,000 resistance zone and reaching an all-time high just above that level, the price retraced toward the $115,700–$117,000 support band. This zone, marked by the horizontal yellow range, also aligns closely with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), currently at $117,593.23, reinforcing its role as a strong technical support. The overall uptrend that started in early May remains intact, with higher highs and higher lows clearly visible on the chart. Notably, BTC continues to trade well above the 100-day (green) and 200-day (red) SMAs, which sit at $112,547.95 and $109,436.38, respectively. These levels serve as deeper support zones if selling pressure intensifies. Volume has increased slightly on red candles, indicating some sell pressure, but there is no sign of panic. As long as BTC holds above the $115,700 level, bulls maintain the advantage. A breakout above $122,000 would signal trend continuation and could open the path to new highs. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin looks to be on the verge of a breakdown after rallying to $123,000 all-time highs earlier in the month. This reversal has taken the market by surprise, with the altcoin market, once again, bearing the brunt of the losses. Now, as the Bitcoin price reaches an important level, the questions of whether this is the start of a bear trend or if there will be a bounce in price have become more urgent. Bitcoin Trends Low After New Highs After the reversal back into the $117,000 levels, crypto analyst TehThomas has published an analysis outlining the current Bitcoin price trend and where it could be headed next. So far, the analyst explains that Bitcoin is still trading in a well-defined trend after being rejected from the upper resistance zone at $120,000 multiple times. However, there is still a lot of bite from its support levels below, which could be its saving grace. Related Reading: Cup And Saucer Pattern Says XRP Price Rally Is Not Done As the analyst explains, the fact that the support continues to hold shows that there is still a lot of buying going on for Bitcoin. This puts the support very tight around this area, but also makes it a dangerous territory for the bulls. It is possible that there is a sweep back to these lows, and Thomas explains that such a move would engineer sell-side liquidity. There is also a Fair Value Gap (FVG) at the $121,000 level, which continues to be defended. This is where most of the resistance has come from, pushing the price back below $118,000 multiple times already. Thus, this FVG is the next level to reclaim in the campaign for new highs. Bouncing Back From Lows If the sweep back toward the lows is completed, it is not entirely bearish for the Bitcoin price and could, in fact, be the move that helps to trigger the next wave of uptrend. The analyst explains that buyers would have to step back in at this level, with support sitting firmly at $116,000. This accumulation during consolidation would be inherently bullish. Related Reading: Tether Investments Extend Beyond Bitcoin Amid Record Profits — Details Looking back at the FVG, the analyst explains that it could act as a magnet if the price begins to rise again. Nevertheless, all of this depends on the Bitcoin price dipping back to support and then bouncing off again. The sweep of liquidity at the lows and the bounce would offer confirmation that the price is going to keep trending upward. However, there is still the possibility of a price breakdown from here. Thomas points to an invalidation of the bullish thesis if support at $116,000 fails to hold and there is no immediate recovery. “Bitcoin remains locked in a clear range, and until the breakout happens, the edges of that range offer the best trading opportunities,” the analyst explained. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
DigitalX Limited, an Australian digital Investment manager, has made headlines with a new Bitcoin (BTC) acquisition, signaling renewed institutional confidence in the market. The ASX-listed crypto fund manager has expanded its Bitcoin treasury by a whopping 74.7 BTC, marking a significant addition to its already existing holdings. DigitalX Buys 74.7 BTC In a recent X social media post on July 23, DigitalX confirmed the addition of 74.7 BTC to its treasury. The acquisition, completed at an average price of $117,293 per BTC, reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to its Bitcoin-led strategy. This latest purchase has raised the crypto fund manager’s total Bitcoin holdings to 499.8 BTC, valued at approximately $91.3 million. Related Reading: Elon Musk’s SpaceX Moves Bitcoin Holdings For The First Time In 3 Years, Here’s Where It Went Notably, the company also announced and expanded on the details of this large-scale Bitcoin purchase in an official statement on Investorhub. Of its total 499.8 BTC holdings, 306.8 BTC are held directly by DigitalX, while the remaining 193 coins are held indirectly through 881,000 units in its ASX-listed Bitcoin ETF, BTXX. The recent addition of 74.7 Bitcoin follows an earlier acquisition of 57.5 BTC disclosed by the company on July 18, 2025. These back-to-back purchases demonstrate a continued reallocation of DigitalX’s digital asset treasury toward Bitcoin. The firm’s total treasury, excluding cash, now exceeds $104.4 million. As part of its long-term crypto strategy, DigitalX’s targeted portfolio adjustment reinforces its role as a leading institutional-grade Bitcoin investment vehicle on the Australian Securities Exchange. The crypto fund manager highlights its latest acquisition as a key step in its ongoing effort to establish Bitcoin as its core treasury reserve asset. Shareholder Focus Sharpens As Bitcoin Treasury Value Rises According to its official statement, DigitalX’s strategy goes beyond simply growing its BTC reserve. It also aims to enhance shareholder value through consistent and transparent reporting. The crypto fund manager now tracks its Bitcoin holdings per share in Satoshis (Sats), the smallest unit of BTC. Related Reading: Hold On For Dear Life: This Bullish Bitcoin Metric Just Touched A 15-Year High As of the latest update, DigitalX’s BTC per share stands at 33.88 Sats, marking a 58% increase in its Bitcoin treasury value since June 30, 2025. This figure reflects the impact of recent acquisitions and provides a somewhat measurable benchmark for investors assessing exposure to the company’s considerable portfolio. By prioritizing Bitcoin accumulation and optimizing its treasury structure, DigitalX continues to position itself as a prominent crypto-centric firm—one that views shareholder value as directly tied to the strength and growth of its BTC holdings. The company is also doubling down on its long-term vision of leveraging the flagship cryptocurrency as a strategic financial foundation. Leigh Travers, former CEO and present Non-Executive Chairman of DigitalX, reaffirmed the company’s commitment to its digital asset goals, stating that it aims to steadily grow its BTC portfolio throughout the year and well into the future. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Data shows the Bitcoin Open Interest shot up to a new all-time high (ATH) even as the cryptocurrency’s price saw a retrace to $115,000. Bitcoin Open Interest Has Gone Against The Price Trend As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the Bitcoin Open Interest has witnessed a sharp surge alongside the latest decline in the price. The “Open Interest” here refers to an indicator that measures the total amount of positions related to BTC (in USD) that are currently open on all centralized derivatives exchanges. Related Reading: This Bitcoin Metric Often Flags Turning Points—What’s It Saying Now? When the value of this metric rises, it means the investors are opening up fresh positions on the market. Generally, the total leverage in the sector goes up when new positions appear, so this kind of trend can lead to more volatility for the cryptocurrency. On the other hand, the indicator going down suggests the holders are either closing up positions of their own volition or getting liquidated by their platform. Whatever the case be, the asset’s price can behave in a more stable manner after such a trend. Now, here is a chart that shows how the value of the Bitcoin Open Interest has changed over the last month: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Open Interest rose to a high value earlier in the month when the asset’s rally to the new all-time high (ATH) took place. This wasn’t anything unusual, as speculation tends to flood in during periods of exciting price action. As BTC retraced from its peak and settled into a phase of boring consolidation, the metric’s value calmed down a bit. Now, the coin has finally diverged from this sideways movement, showing a downwards move. Interestingly, the Open Interest has rocketed up alongside this price plunge and set a new record around $44.5 billion. From the chart, it’s visible that price declines usually accompany drawdowns in the indicator, as longs find liquidation. “It’s unusual for BTC price direction and open interest to move in a negative correlation,” notes the quant. Related Reading: Crypto Liquidations Near $1 Billion As XRP, Dogecoin Crash 10% The spike in the metric could suggest some longs have decided to double down on their bets and some speculators have jumped in to get their shorts in, expecting the downtrend to continue. As mentioned before, an increase in the metric can amplify price volatility. This happens because the chances of a mass liquidation event taking place go up during such conditions. It now remains to be seen how this Open Interest increase would unwind this time around and whether a long squeeze or a short one would take place. BTC Price Bitcoin saw a brief dip under $115,000 earlier, but its price has since retraced a bit as it’s back at $116,000. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s old four-year rhythm has been upended, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. He argued on Thursday that the crypto’s cycle is no longer in existence, driven out by big players stepping in. Related Reading: PEPE Sparks Google Frenzy With 300% Surge In Search Interest His latest comments follow a public rethink after he called a market top just a few months ago and got it wrong. Institutional Buyers Rewrite Rules Based on reports, Bitcoin Spot ETFs and corporate treasuries are changing the game. In the first half of the year, treasury companies bought twice as much BTC as the ETFs did. That shows how deep pockets can fill the gap when veteran whales move out. Short sells and panic dumps used to knock prices hard. Now, a growing pool of steady institutional demand comes in right behind those exits. It’s a shift that could reshape Bitcoin’s usual peaks and valleys. #Bitcoin cycle theory is dead. My predictions were based on it—buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail joins. But that pattern no longer holds. Last cycle, whales sold to retail. This time, old whales sell to new long-term whales. Institutional adoption is bigger than we… — Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) July 24, 2025 Ki Young Ju first sounded the alarm in March, when Bitcoin hovered around $83,000. At that time, every on-chain metric pointed down. The bull score hit multi-year lows. BBMC indicators and the MVRV ratio flashed red warnings. Whale liquidations piled up, and many saw a bear market beginning. Market Indicators Flash Early Warnings Support levels stood strong after an April retest. Those same bears had to eat their words when Bitcoin bounced back. By May, prices broke past the January high and surged to $112,000. This month, BTC even hit $123,000 before taking a breather. That quick turnaround forced Young Ju to admit he was wrong—and to thank investors for showing him the mistake. He now says the old cycle theory no longer applies, since institutional players don’t follow the same playbook as retail buyers. Public companies like MicroStrategy (now Strategy) and other treasury-focused firms have become major holders. They treat Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Related Reading: The US Is A Bitcoin Whale—Arkham Clarifies BTC Holdings After Brief Panic ETFs Big Appetite Meanwhile, spot ETFs keep buying almost daily. That dual demand has built a solid floor under prices and given big whales less sway. Retail investors may still buy late and sell early. But now their moves are cushioned by far larger, long-term stakes. Experts See A New Phase Major voices in crypto echo this view. Michael Saylor has declared that the bear market era is no longer here. JAN3 chief executive officer Samson Mow and Binance CEO CZ even project that this cycle could take Bitcoin all the way to $1 million. Other big names in the industry, like ‘Rich Dad Poo Dad’ author Robert Kiyosaki, believe so as well. Those bullish calls come from people who back institutional growth over hype-driven swings. They see big money as a stabilizer rather than a speculator. Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin is making its first meaningful move since breaking its all-time highs and reaching the $123,000 level. After consolidating in a tight range for nearly two weeks, the price is now pulling back toward $115,000—marking a 6% decline from recent highs. While this retracement has stirred caution among short-term traders, data suggests there is little cause for concern at this stage. Related Reading: Bitcoin LTHs Start Distributing: CDD Ratio Hits Historic Levels According to CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Price Drawdown Analysis chart, the current 6% pullback remains well within the normal volatility range observed during prior bull phases. This suggests the move is more likely a healthy market reset than the beginning of a deeper correction. As Bitcoin tests the lower boundary of its former range, investors will closely watch for renewed strength or signs of distribution. For now, fundamentals and long-term holder data remain supportive, keeping bullish sentiment intact despite short-term volatility. The next few sessions may determine whether BTC can bounce decisively or enter a broader consolidation phase. Bitcoin Volatility Remains Within Norms As Market Enters Critical Phase According to top analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin’s recent price action may appear sharp at first glance, but deeper analysis shows that current volatility remains well within normal historical ranges. Over the past quarter, Bitcoin’s most notable intraday drops on the 5-minute timeframe reached -10% in early June and -12% in mid-June. Meanwhile, the average weekly drawdown, represented by the green line on Adler’s chart, remains stable at 3.8%. The current -6% pullback—following Bitcoin’s recent breakout to $123K and its retrace toward $115K—sits only 2.2% deeper than this weekly average and is still far from the panic-triggering extremes seen in previous months. Despite the dramatic visual appearance, Adler emphasizes that the current correction aligns with a standard consolidation cycle often seen during bull markets. What makes this moment especially relevant is how other parts of the crypto market are behaving. While altcoins retraced heavily yesterday, today they are holding above key support levels, signaling potential strength and a possible shift in market dynamics. This resilience across major altcoins could mark a rotation of capital within the market, rather than an exit. Related Reading: Bitcoin STH Realized Price Chart Reveals Key Defense Zones Amid Volatility BTC Falls Below Key Support as Volume Spikes Bitcoin has broken below the tight consolidation range it maintained for over two weeks, with price dropping sharply to a local low of $115,009 before slightly recovering to $115,759. This marks a clear technical breakdown of the horizontal channel between $115,724 and $122,077, as shown in the 4-hour chart. The breach below the lower bound coincided with a spike in volume, signaling decisive selling pressure from market participants. The drop pushed BTC below the 50-day (blue) and 100-day (green) simple moving averages (SMAs), both of which previously acted as dynamic support. The price is now hovering just above the $115,724 horizontal support zone, which is now being retested. A failure to hold this level could open the door to deeper retracements toward the 200-day SMA near $112,104, which could act as the next major support level. Related Reading: Ethereum Adoption Accelerates As Daily Transactions Set 2025 Record Technically, a bearish structure is developing in the short term, especially after the breakdown from the triangle-like compression (marked in blue). However, the elevated volume accompanying the move may also suggest capitulation from weak hands, which can precede a reversal. In the coming sessions, Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim the $118K level will determine whether bulls can regain control. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin’s summer melt-up has come to an abrupt halt. The benchmark cryptocurrency slipped from an intraday peak above $119,000 late Thursday to trade as low as $115,800 in European morning hours, its weakest print in a fortnight. The 2.7 percentage-point slide followed an unmistakable on-chain signal: Galaxy Digital quietly pushed more than 10,000 BTC—worth about $1.18 billion at the time—onto major exchanges in less than eight hours, according to wallet-tracking firm Lookonchain. Galaxy Digital Triggers Bitcoin Slide “Bitcoin sell-off still underway! Galaxy Digital deposited another 2,850 BTC ($330.44M) to exchanges,” Lookonchain warned on X in the early European morning hours, noting that the transfer originated from a Satoshi-era whale that re-awakened this month. Prior to that, the analytics account posted an alert: “Note that Galaxy Digital has deposited over 10,000 BTC ($1.18B) to exchanges in the past 8 hours!” Screenshots of Arkham Intelligence dashboards showed a series of multi-million-dollar transactions converging on Binance, Bybit and OKX. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Signal? Analyst Links Binance Spot Volume Surges To Price Upswings The flows are the latest chapter in a saga that began on 4 July, when an address dormant since 2011 started chopping an 80,009-BTC trove into 10,000-coin tranches. By 18 July the final 40,191 BTC—worth $4.8 billion—had landed at Galaxy, a move many analysts interpreted as a potential sale. That potential is now reality. On-chain data shows Galaxy sends Bitcoin to various crypto exchanges almost every minute to sell it. The BTC price is reacting with textbook symmetry: spot BTC slipped through $118,000 during the Asian session before knifing to $116,000 as London desks opened, wiping roughly $55 billion from bitcoin’s market value in just 4 hours. Galaxy Digital, run by billionaire Michael Novogratz, offered no public comment at the time of writing and has not filed any Form 8-K that might indicate a balance-sheet reshuffle. The firm’s most recent media appearance came on CNBC yesterday, where Novogratz repeated his view that Ether could “outperform” bitcoin over the next few months,” but did not hint at near-term selling. Related Reading: Are Traders Walking Into a Bitcoin Bull Trap at $118K? Here’s What the Data Shows While motives remain opaque, market spectators were quick to theorise. “Looks like the Bitcoin selloff is Galaxy Digital market dumping from a batch of 80K BTC. Could be because they were asked to for a client, something related to Saylor, or moving into Ethereum as Novogratz suggested ETH may move more than BTC in the next few months (today on CNBC). Not worried. They have about 27K left to sell (if they’re selling the full 80k), people buy, life goes on, it continues upwards,” the crypto-focused account Autism Capital posted via X. Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards commented via X: “At the same time that this OG whale is dropping 10K slugs into spot markets today, we have 30K of leveraged longs opening on the dip. Not a price prediction and changes nothing mid- to long-term, but this is not a great sign for the short-term price action. Even if all 80K BTC are nuked, if Treasury Company demand remains consistent, it will all be consumed in a couple weeks.” At press time, BTC traded at $115,476. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
The Bitcoin short-term holder balance has often shown shifts near market tops and bottoms. Here’s what the metric’s trend is signaling right now. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Balance Hasn’t Seen Any Major Shifts Recently In a new post on X, institutional DeFi solutions provider Sentora (formerly IntoTheBlock) has shared a chart that shows how the holdings of the different Bitcoin investor groups has changed over the years. The cohorts in question have been divided on the basis of holding time. Related Reading: Crypto Liquidations Near $1 Billion As XRP, Dogecoin Crash 10% The analytics firm classifies investors into three groups: traders, cruisers, and hodlers. The traders include the holders who have been carrying their coins for less than a month. This group corresponds to the new entrants in the sector and the investors who participate in high frequency trades. The cruisers are investors who are no longer that short-term minded, but they also haven’t built up enough resilience to be in it for the long-term yet. Cruisers who manage to hold past the one year mark become part of the diamond hands of the network: the hodlers. Now, below is the chart for the net change in the supply held by these three Bitcoin groups. As displayed in the above graph, these cohorts have historically shown a certain pattern near inflection points in the asset. “Fluctuations in short-term holder balances often signal market turning points,” notes the analytics firm. During major tops and bottoms, the traders generally register a sharp spike in their balance, as cruisers and hodlers take part in profit realization or capitulation. Whenever these older groups sell, the age of their coins resets back to zero and they are put into the supply of the traders. From the chart, it’s apparent that while Bitcoin has observed a sharp rally to new all-time highs (ATHs) recently, there still hasn’t been any big changes in the supplies of the traders. “Interestingly, we’re not seeing major shifts at the moment,” says Sentora. It now remains to be seen whether this means that the current rally still has room to grow. Related Reading: When Will Ethereum Turn Overheated? Report Says Watch This Level In some other news, the cryptocurrency has seen an uptick in on-chain transaction activity, as the analytics firm has pointed out in another X post. The weekly Bitcoin transaction volume reached almost $700 billion last week, the highest level since 2022. Though, while this does indicate activity is as high as it’s ever been in this cycle, it’s still muted when compared to the highs of the 2021 bull run. BTC Price Bitcoin is still stuck in sideways movement as its price is trading around $119,000. Featured image from Dall-E, IntoTheBlock.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) may be on the cusp of another rally, as leading cryptocurrency exchange Binance saw its spot volume rise from around 40% on July 15 to as high as 60% on July 18. Historical data suggests that surges in Binance’s spot market share have frequently preceded upward movements in BTC’s price. Bitcoin Rally Imminent? Binance Data Suggests So According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Amr Taha, Binance’s spot volume market share surging to 58% on July 23, has further strengthened the premier cryptocurrency’s $117,000 support. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sees Long-Term Holders Sell As Short-Term Buyers Step In – Sign Of Rally Exhaustion? This marks the second notable spike in Binance’s spot market dominance this month. On July 18, Binance’s share surged to 60%, coinciding with Bitcoin holding above the critical $117,000 mark on the daily chart. Since then, the $117,000 level has served as a reliable support zone, likely buoyed by Binance’s deep liquidity and high execution reliability. Price stability at this level has been observed multiple times since the initial breakout. In addition to this, Bitcoin’s price has shown strong resilience around the Realized Price of the 1-day to 1-week Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) Age Band, which is currently near $118,300. For context, UTXO age bands classify Bitcoin held in wallets based on how long it has remained unspent, offering insight into investor behavior. Shorter bands – 1 day to 1 week – typically reflect activity by newer or speculative holders, while longer bands – 6 months to 5 years – are associated with long-term holders with stronger conviction. Taha explained: Historically, this metric acts as a dynamic support level, indicating that newer holders are not capitulating and that the average on-chain cost basis of recent buyers is being respected by the market. Meanwhile, fellow crypto analyst Titan of Crypto took to X to highlight BTC following the bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern. In an X post, the analyst shared the following weekly chart, adding that BTC is on track to hit a target of $144,000. Will BTC Hit $180,000 By Year End? Bitcoin’s recent all-time high (ATH) of $123,218 has reignited speculation around even higher price targets before year’s end. According to CryptoQuant analyst Chairman Lee, BTC remains on track to reach $180,000 by the end of 2025. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Not Over Yet? Short-Term Holder MVRV Suggests Further Upside Recent on-chain metrics support this bullish outlook. Notably, the Bitcoin IFP indicator suggests that major holders continue to hold BTC despite its proximity to record highs – unlike in previous cycles, where exchange inflows typically preceded significant corrections. However, not all indicators point upward. Exchange reserves recently reached their highest levels since June 25, raising concerns about potential sell pressure. At press time, BTC is trading at $119,097, up 0.6% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant, X, and TradingView.com
Bitcoin continues to trade below its record high set earlier this month, hovering above the $119,000 mark. While price action over the past week has shown only a modest 0.3% gain, analysts suggest the market may be nearing a turning point. The sideways movement in price has not deterred the broader bullish outlook, but on-chain indicators now suggest caution may be warranted. One such indicator comes from CryptoQuant’s QuickTake contributor Arab Chain, who flagged potential overheating in Bitcoin’s current market structure. Related Reading: Bitcoin STH Realized Price Chart Reveals Key Defense Zones Amid Volatility Bitcoin Bullish Trend Persists, but Signs Point to Caution In a recent post, the analyst highlighted the behavior of the Bull and Bear Market Cycle Indicator, which now sits in a zone typically associated with strong bullish trends. However, its proximity to the so-called “overheated bull” range has raised concerns about a possible correction on the horizon. The indicator’s historical pattern suggests this zone often precedes a price cooldown, leading investors to consider profit-taking strategies. Arab Chain noted that despite the bullish structure, the indicator’s advance toward overheated territory could prompt speculators to close positions. “The proximity of overheated zones suggests that this is not the right time for a major purchase,” the analyst explained. The insight reflects the broader sentiment that market participants may opt for a wait-and-see approach, anticipating a more favorable re-entry after a correction. Additionally, while the 30-day to 365-day moving averages still support a continued uptrend, they may also signal that a short-term top is forming unless disrupted by new market catalysts. Retail Interest Remains Muted as Institutional Demand Grows Supporting this view, another CryptoQuant analyst, Burak Kesmeci, emphasized the role of institutional activity in driving the current cycle. Kesmeci explained that retail investors have reduced their exposure to Bitcoin since early 2023, while large investors have increased their holdings, particularly from early 2024 onward. “This time, the source of the Bitcoin rally is not retail — the big players are in the driver’s seat,” he wrote. This accumulation by high-volume wallets, likely linked to institutions or ETFs, highlights a shift from previous cycles dominated by retail behavior. Related Reading: Bitcoin Final Push? Wave (5) Could Deliver A Spectacular Breakout Kesmeci further pointed to Google Trends data showing that search interest in “Bitcoin” remains subdued compared to previous bull runs. The absence of widespread retail excitement contrasts with the intense public engagement seen during Bitcoin’s surge in 2021. According to Kesmeci, the quiet phase may indicate that retail has not yet entered the market en masse — a stage that historically signals the final leg of a bull cycle. “The crowd has not awakened yet,” he noted, adding that “smart money is currently on stage — and most people are still watching from the sidelines.” Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin continues to consolidate just below the $120,000 mark, exhibiting restrained momentum despite previous rallies that pushed it to all-time highs above $123,000. Over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency has fluctuated between a low of $117,422 and a high of $119,197, ultimately trading at $118,578 at the time of writing. While price movement has remained relatively stable, on-chain indicators suggest that broader market sentiment is still in a transitional phase, with neither excessive enthusiasm nor panic selling present among investors. Related Reading: Are Traders Walking Into a Bitcoin Bull Trap at $118K? Here’s What the Data Shows Bitcoin Market Signals Suggest Ongoing Expansion Phase A recent analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Gaah highlights a key development in the Index Bitcoin Cycle Indicators (IBCI), a composite tool used to track phases in Bitcoin’s market cycle. According to Gaah, the IBCI has returned to the “Distribution” zone, an area historically associated with the late stages of a bull market. However, this return is moderate, as the index has reached only 80% of the zone’s upper boundary, falling short of the full saturation levels typically observed at major market peaks. The IBCI’s moderate level indicates that Bitcoin is in an expansionary stage, but without the typical signs of overheating. Gaah noted that two critical components of the IBCI, the Puell Multiple and the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR), remain below their midpoint levels. This suggests that short-term speculation and aggressive profit-taking, often seen in late-stage bull markets, have not yet fully emerged in the current cycle. As a result, while caution may be warranted, the broader trend does not yet resemble a typical market top. The Puell Multiple, in particular, continues to hover near the “Discount” range, indicating that miner profitability remains moderate even with Bitcoin’s recent all-time high. This points to a valuation structure where network participants have not yet entered the excess phase that typically precedes a market correction. Gaah emphasized that the current state of the IBCI reflects underlying market strength supported by fundamentals, not speculative fervor. However, he also warned that the market is in a high-risk correction zone in the short term and should be monitored closely for shifts in retail behavior and miner activity. Short-Term Holders Offer Support Around Realized Price Adding to the discussion, another CryptoQuant analyst, Amr Taha, observed that Bitcoin has maintained price stability near the realized price of the UTXO Age Band for 1-day to 1-week holders, currently around $118,300. This metric is often interpreted as a dynamic support level that reflects the average cost basis for recent buyers. According to Taha, the absence of capitulation among newer holders implies that recent market entrants remain confident, reinforcing the current price range as a psychological and technical support zone. Related Reading: Bitcoin Hovers Below $120K as On-Chain Indicators Point to Slowing Demand Together, these insights suggest that while Bitcoin may face near-term volatility, broader indicators do not yet reflect an overheated market. Instead, current metrics imply a market that continues to expand at a measured pace, with room for potential upside if fundamentals remain intact. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Jack Mallers, founder of Strike, argued in a video shared on X that a structurally higher Bitcoin price is emerging as a necessary component of US fiscal management, linking the growth of stablecoins to demand for US government debt. Framing the newly introduced GENIUS Act stablecoin legislation as “a seminal moment for digital assets and global dollar dominance,” Mallers said that while the bill “has nothing to do with Bitcoin directly,” it is indirectly significant because stablecoin expansion and Bitcoin appreciation are, in his view, intertwined. Bitcoin And Gold Must Rise To Avert US Fiscal Crisis Displaying a chart of Tether’s market capitalization alongside Bitcoin’s price, Mallers told viewers: “In the green, what you’re looking at is Tether, Market Cap. And in the orange, what you’re looking at is Bitcoin… The currency pair that does the most volume against this asset class is USDT, is Tether… If you want stablecoins to grow, Bitcoin grows.” He then connected that relationship to federal financing: stablecoin issuers, especially Tether, hold large amounts of US Treasuries; therefore, a larger stablecoin float would translate into incremental structural demand for US debt. Related Reading: Are Traders Walking Into a Bitcoin Bull Trap at $118K? Here’s What the Data Shows Mallers described the United States as fiscally “trapped,” asserting: “We know that the US cannot raise rates and they cannot cut spending. So we are trapped. The next logical step is we then need to devalue the dollar. It’s the only way out.” The policy question, he continued, is what assets the dollar should be allowed to depreciate against. “Do not debase the dollar against housing… Don’t debase the dollar against eggs… My recommendation, debase it against Bitcoin and gold.” Projecting a scenario in which Bitcoin reaches $500,000—“That’s 5x from here”—Mallers claimed such a move would force stablecoin capitalization to “5x,” producing “five times the amount of demand for US debt” at a moment when, he said, traditional foreign and domestic buyers are fatigued: “China doesn’t want your debt… Hedge funds don’t want your debt. Who’s the buyer of last resort? The Fed.” He likened the prospective alignment of Treasury financing needs, Federal Reserve balance-sheet expansion, and stablecoin reserve composition to a previous historical episode: “The last time the Fed and the US government got married… was to help finance around the world wars. And the Fed’s balance sheet grew 10 times… largely in… T-bills, the things that stablecoins buy.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Consolidates Below $120K as Exchange Activity Reflects Mixed Market Signals With US debt-to-GDP “at 130%,” Mallers argued, reduction in real terms requires monetary debasement channeled into politically acceptable asset inflation. He extended the narrative into politics, highlighting that “The president and his family just bought $2 billion worth of Bitcoin” and policy moves such as opening “US retirement market to crypto investments.” According to Mallers, positioning Bitcoin and gold inside retirement accounts will allow policymakers to “debase the dollar and get reelected,” because Bitcoin holders would not resist the erosion of purchasing power: “Debase the dollar all you want… I don’t care because I own Bitcoin.” He concluded by restating the mechanism he sees emerging from the bill: “Stablecoins are the new way to finance the government, but they grow as Bitcoin grows. One way to grow stablecoins is to grow Bitcoin… One way to solve the Fed and the Treasury’s problem of getting remarried is to grow Bitcoin. It could not be more obvious.” At press time, BTC traded at $118,055. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com