THE LATEST CRYPTO NEWS

Bitcoin has remained trapped in a tight range between $115K and $120K for the past 10 days, signaling an extended phase of price compression. With bulls unable to push the price above the $120,000 resistance, analysts are increasingly warning that a correction may be imminent. The coming days are expected to be decisive, as both technical and on-chain fundamentals point to a potential surge in volatility. Related Reading: Ethereum Adoption Accelerates As Daily Transactions Set 2025 Record According to data from CryptoQuant, a key long-term metric—the Monthly Cumulative Days Destroyed (CDD) to Yearly CDD ratio—has reached an anomalously high level of 0.25. This is occurring within the $106,000 to $118,000 price range, a zone that has seen heavy long-term holder activity. Historically, similar CDD spikes were observed during the 2014 macro peak and the 2019 corrective phase, both of which marked periods of intense market distribution. This unusual on-chain behavior reflects heightened movement of long-dormant coins, suggesting that experienced holders may be taking profits at current levels. While this doesn’t confirm an immediate trend reversal, it reinforces the idea that Bitcoin’s current consolidation is a critical inflection point—one that could either lead to renewed upside or trigger a deeper correction if bulls fail to regain momentum soon. Long-Term Holders Begin Distributing, But Rally Still Intact Top analyst Axel Adler has shared insights highlighting a key shift in Bitcoin market behavior: the sharp rise in the Monthly CDD to Yearly CDD ratio indicates that long-term holders (LTHs) are beginning to actively move dormant coins back into circulation. Historically, such elevated CDD levels have marked periods of heightened activity from experienced investors, often signaling a distribution phase where profits are realized after prolonged holding. These spikes are significant because they suggest that coins held for years are now re-entering the market. According to Adler, this kind of activity isn’t random—it typically comes from holders with deep market knowledge who recognize potential turning points. However, this doesn’t necessarily mean the rally is over. While it may cap short-term upside and introduce volatility, current macro and institutional trends provide a solid counterbalance. Treasury demand remains strong, and Bitcoin ETF inflows are still flowing steadily, acting as a buffer against excessive downward pressure. This structural support is crucial in maintaining overall bullish momentum, even as some distribution unfolds. Related Reading: Bitcoin Holders Still Reluctant To Sell – Supply Active Data Shows Room For Upside Sideways Movement Persists Below $120K Resistance Bitcoin (BTC) continues to consolidate in a tight range, as shown in the 12-hour chart. Price action remains compressed between the $115,724 key support and the $122,077 resistance level. After a strong impulse earlier this month, momentum has clearly cooled, with BTC now oscillating within this horizontal channel for over 10 days. Notably, the price is currently hovering near $118,500—right around the 50-period moving average (blue), which has acted as dynamic support since early July. The 100-period (green) and 200-period (red) moving averages remain well below the current price, indicating that the broader trend remains bullish despite the pause in upward movement. Related Reading: Ethereum Big-Money Flow Hits 3-Year High With $100B In Weekly Volume However, volume has steadily declined during this consolidation phase, signaling indecision and a potential lack of conviction among buyers at current levels. A breakout above $122,000 could renew bullish momentum, opening the door for a run toward new highs, while a breakdown below $115,700 would expose BTC to deeper retracement levels, likely targeting the 100 MA near $109,800. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin saw a modest retracement yesterday, dipping slightly but continuing to trade within a tight range between key support and resistance levels. While the broader altcoin market faces heightened volatility and notable losses, BTC remains relatively resilient, yet momentum appears uncertain. Analysts warn that if sentiment weakens, a broader correction could unfold. Related Reading: Ethereum Adoption Accelerates As Daily Transactions Set 2025 Record Top analyst Darkfost highlighted a critical dynamic now unfolding: the vulnerability of Short-Term Holders (STH). These investors, who entered the market during recent price surges, hold Bitcoin at significantly higher cost bases. As price action stalls or retraces, they’re typically the first to capitulate, creating increased selling pressure. With altcoins already under stress, all eyes remain on whether Bitcoin can hold above current support levels or if it, too, will start to crack under short-term selloffs. This phase could act as a stress test for recent buyers, while long-term holders and institutional participants continue to monitor key price zones. Key Realized Price Levels Suggest Bitcoin Structure Remains Bullish Darkfost has shared a chart offering a deep dive into Bitcoin’s realized prices across various holding cohorts, particularly focusing on Short-Term Holders (STHs). These metrics are proving crucial in identifying support zones that could be defended if the price continues to correct in the short term. The broader realized price for Bitcoin currently stands at $50.8K, while the annual average is significantly higher at $87.5K. More critically, the realized price for STHs—those who purchased coins recently—is positioned at $103.9K. Breaking this down further, we see realized prices by time held: STH 3m–6m: $88.2K STH 1m–3m: $104.1K STH 1w–1m: $113K These figures represent the average price at which different groups of recent investors acquired their coins. As such, they serve as psychological and technical support levels during corrections. With Bitcoin currently consolidating after a small retracement, bulls are eyeing these realized price zones to gauge whether the structure remains bullish. The $104K level, in particular, is essential—it aligns closely with the 1m–3m STH realized price and could serve as a decisive line for sentiment and price defense. If buyers can hold BTC above this level, the market’s bullish structure will likely remain intact, suggesting healthy consolidation rather than trend reversal. Conversely, losing it could trigger short-term panic selling among recent entrants. Related Reading: Bitcoin Holders Still Reluctant To Sell – Supply Active Data Shows Room For Upside Bitcoin Price Analysis: Key Levels Hold After New Highs Bitcoin continues to consolidate in a tight range after setting fresh all-time highs earlier this month. As seen in the 3-day chart, BTC is holding above $115,724—a key horizontal support—and below immediate resistance near $122,077. This consolidation range has remained intact for over a week, reflecting both strong demand and hesitation near psychological resistance. Despite the recent small pullback, the overall market structure remains bullish. Price is trading well above the 50-day ($98,536), 100-day ($93,833), and 200-day ($76,201) simple moving averages, which continue to slope upward. This confirms strong medium- and long-term momentum. Related Reading: Tron Outpaces Ethereum In Fee Revenue – TRX Burn Accelerates Volume has declined slightly during the current range-bound movement, indicating a pause after the aggressive rally from below $100,000. However, bulls are clearly defending the $115,000–$116,000 region, a zone that coincides with the top of the previous breakout. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin continues to hover below its all-time high, with current trading levels near $118,000 reflecting a 0.6% daily drop and a 3.8% pullback from the peak above $123,000 recorded earlier this month. While the broader trend remains uncertain, analysts have assessed on-chain activity for signs of the next major move. Recent data from CryptoQuant analysts highlights a divide between retail and institutional behavior across leading exchanges, raising questions about potential profit-taking or strategic accumulation. Related Reading: Bitcoin Must Defend This Key Support For $180,000 Year-End Target, Analyst Says Bitcoin Retail Traders Sell into Strength, While Whales Accumulate On the one hand, short-term holder (STH) behavior on Binance suggests some market participants are opting to take profits following the asset’s strong rally. On the other hand, Kraken has recorded a sharp outflow of Bitcoin, a movement typically associated with whale activity or long-term accumulation. This contrasting activity across platforms suggests a split in market sentiment, with retail traders potentially trimming their exposure and larger players preparing for sustained upside. According to CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha, the Binance Exchange Inflow Ratio for Short-Term Holders recently crossed the 0.4 level, historically linked to increased retail selling pressure. These STHs, who typically hold Bitcoin for fewer than 155 days, tend to deposit funds to exchanges during periods of price strength to lock in gains. The spike above this threshold may indicate a growing tendency among retail investors to exit positions in anticipation of volatility. In contrast, the same analysis pointed to significant outflows from Kraken, with over 9,600 BTC withdrawn on July 22, one of the highest single-day outflows seen in recent months. Taha interpreted this as a potential signal of whale accumulation, with institutional or high-net-worth participants removing assets from exchange custody, often in preparation for long-term storage. This divergence in behavior between Binance and Kraken highlights the differing strategies employed by market segments, with retail users leaning toward short-term positioning and whales opting for long-term accumulation. Binance Reserve Trends Highlight Strengthening Profit Margins Adding another layer to the evolving market picture, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost shared that Binance’s unrealized profit on its Bitcoin reserves has hit an all-time high of approximately 60,000 BTC. This figure has grown despite a gradual decline in total BTC reserves held on the platform, which have fallen from 631,000 BTC in September 2024 to 574,000 BTC as of now. A portion of these holdings, around 16,000 BTC, is locked in custodial wallets to back the BTCB token on the BNB Chain, serving operational purposes. Darkfost emphasized that decreasing exchange reserves are often interpreted as a sign of investor confidence, reflecting a preference to store Bitcoin in personal wallets rather than leaving it on centralized platforms. Related Reading: Trump Media’s $2 Billion Bitcoin Buy Sparks Surge In Stock Price The rise in unrealized profit amid falling reserves may indicate that while outflows persist, the remaining holdings have appreciated significantly in value, highlighting the platform’s strengthened position. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin’s recent price action reflects a consolidation phase rather than a decisive move in either direction. After briefly touching an all-time high of over $123,000 earlier this month, BTC has seen a gradual pullback, currently trading around $118,000 at the time of writing. This represents a 1.1% drop in the last 24 hours and a 3.9% decline from its peak, as traders evaluate whether the current market structure suggests a continuation or a correction. According to new insights from CryptoQuant contributors, indicators present a split narrative. Some metrics suggest rising optimism among traders, while others indicate a more cautious and holding-focused environment. Related Reading: Trump Shares Viral Bitcoin Breakdown — Here’s What He Posted Surge in Long Positions Raises Contrarian Concerns CryptoQuant contributor BorisVest highlighted a notable spike in the long/short sentiment ratio on Binance, showing a growing preference among traders for long positions. This metric, which tracks the volume of long versus short positions on the exchange, has tilted significantly bullish within the $116,000–$120,000 price range. He noted that during Bitcoin’s previous consolidation between $100,000 and $110,000, sentiment leaned toward short positions, a setup that preceded a breakout to the upside and a wave of short liquidations. This time, however, the environment has flipped. BorisVest explained: Now that sentiment is skewed heavily toward longs, the same principle could apply in reverse. When the majority positions in one direction, it often creates a setup for the opposite move. The current range is acting as a trap zone, where traders’ expectations are repeatedly tested. The historical tendency for sentiment extremes to precede contrary price action has prompted some analysts to advise caution, suggesting that growing bullish bias could lead to a temporary reversal if met with enough liquidity pressure. Bitcoin Exchange Flow Patterns Reflect Investor Patience While Binance sentiment data leans bullish, another key on-chain indicator paints a different picture. CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain examined the Bitcoin Flow Pulse (IFP) indicator, which tracks BTC movements to centralized exchanges. Related Reading: Bitcoin Must Defend This Key Support For $180,000 Year-End Target, Analyst Says According to the data, despite Bitcoin’s recent high above $120,000, there has not been a corresponding spike in exchange inflows, suggesting that investors are not rushing to take profits or exit the market. This behavior contrasts with historical cycles in 2017 and 2021, where price peaks were accompanied by large exchange inflows and followed by corrections. Arab Chain wrote: The market now shows a consolidating trend, with reduced selling pressure. The low flow to exchanges indicates confidence among holders and suggests that many participants are expecting the uptrend to continue. Still, he cautioned that a shift in the IFP indicator, such as a sudden rise in exchange flows, could act as an early warning for increased supply pressure. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade near its all-time high (ATH) of $123,218, concerns over rising exchange deposits are mounting. However, fresh on-chain data reveals a significant contrast between the current rally and previous ones – most notably, a decline in BTC deposits to exchanges. Bitcoin Flow Pulse Shows Low Exchange Activity According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, the Bitcoin Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) indicator is exhibiting “interesting behavior” in mid-2025. Notably, large investors do not appear to be selling their holdings, despite BTC trading at record highs. Related Reading: Bitcoin Reserves On Exchanges Hit Highest Level Since June 25 – Is BTC In Danger? Typically, sophisticated investors begin profit-taking as an asset approaches ATH territory. However, that behavior appears to be largely absent this time. The lack of selling activity stands in contrast to the market peaks of 2017 and 2021. During both these instances, there were large BTC inflows to exchanges, which were closely followed by significant price corrections. Arab Chain shared the following chart highlighting the relationship between a rising IFP and Bitcoin’s price trajectory. The chart illustrates how price corrections followed rising IFP levels at the end of 2017 and again in 2021. In 2025, despite an IFP surge earlier in the year, the BTC market has since consolidated rather than corrected. For context, the IFP indicator tracks the volume of Bitcoin transferred between centralized exchanges, providing insights into investor sentiment and market conditions. A rising IFP typically suggests growing intent to sell or arbitrage, while a declining IFP indicates reduced exchange activity and stronger holder conviction. This year’s dynamic between IFP and BTC price suggests investors are choosing to hold Bitcoin, even as prices hover near record highs. Arab Chain noted that such behavior reinforces the bullish case. They said: This behavior indicates high confidence in the uptrend so far and partly explains why the price has continued to rise without any clear selling pressure. On the other hand, if the Bitcoin IFP indicator begins to rise, it indicates an intention to sell and an anticipated significant supply pressure. Therefore, a sudden rise in the indicator is a strong warning sign for speculators. BTC Miners Engaging In Profit-Taking While large investors remain largely inactive on the selling front, Bitcoin miners appear to be cashing in on the current rally. Miner outflows surged to 16,000 BTC on July 15 – the highest single-day level since April 7. Related Reading: No Mania Yet: Bitcoin ATH Lacks Hype, Suggesting Further Upside Potential As selling pressure builds, recent analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Chairman Lee highlights a key support level that BTC must defend to remain on track for the $180,000 year-end target. At press time, BTC trades at $117,529, down 1.4% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Bitcoin remains in a tight consolidation range after setting a new all-time high above $123,000 just 10 days ago. The current range, between $117,000 and $120,000, reflects a pause in momentum as the market digests recent gains and prepares for its next major move. While volatility has cooled, underlying metrics suggest that the broader trend may still have room to run. Related Reading: Tron Outpaces Ethereum In Fee Revenue – TRX Burn Accelerates One key indicator drawing attention is the percentage of supply active in the past 180 days (% Supply Active). This metric has historically surged during major macro turning points. In spring 2024, as BTC approached $70,000, % Supply Active climbed to 20%. It rose again to 18% in December 2024, when Bitcoin first broke through the psychological $100,000 barrier. These spikes reflected long-dormant coins moving out of storage—often interpreted as early signals of broader distribution phases beginning. Currently, the market is showing only initial signs of renewed supply activity, suggesting that we may still be in the early stages of this cycle’s distribution phase. As long-term holders remain relatively inactive and Bitcoin trades near record levels, the stage may be set for further upside if accumulation resumes and new capital enters the market. Supply Activity Signals Early Stage Of Bitcoin Macro Expansion Top analyst Axel Adler recently shared key insights pointing to a potential early phase in Bitcoin’s ongoing macro cycle. According to Adler, supply activity began rising in June 2025 as BTC crossed the $100,000 mark. Over the past 30 days, this metric has climbed from negative territory to +2.4%, signaling the beginning of a shift in holder behavior. While the increase confirms early signs of distribution, it remains modest compared to previous cycle peaks. Historically, major bull markets see this 30-day % Supply Active rise dramatically. Adler highlights that the current pace lags behind prior peaks—like those seen when BTC reached $70,000 in spring 2024 or when it breached $100,000 in December 2024—suggesting that the market still has a considerable buffer before entering a heightened distribution phase. This delayed spike in activity implies that most long-term holders remain committed and are not yet ready to offload their coins. As Bitcoin consolidates near the $120,000 level, this growing yet restrained activity indicates a healthy cycle structure. Adler predicts that if BTC continues to climb and hold above $120,000, the 30-day % Supply Active will likely move into the 8–10% range. Ultimately, it could revisit the 18–20% zone seen at past distribution tops. Related Reading: Ethereum Big-Money Flow Hits 3-Year High With $100B In Weekly Volume BTC Holds Strong Above $115K Amid Consolidation The 12-hour Bitcoin chart reveals a clear consolidation phase following the recent all-time high. BTC is currently trading around $118,267, trapped in a tight range between the $122,077 resistance and the $115,724 support. Despite a minor rejection from the $120K area, the structure remains bullish as long as price holds above the 50 and 100-period SMAs, which are now aligned between $113K and $110K—signaling solid mid-term support. Volume shows decreasing momentum during this consolidation, typical of a healthy pause after a strong breakout. BTC previously surged above $120K on strong volume, but has since failed to establish a new high, instead forming a sideways pattern. This suggests market indecision or accumulation before the next leg. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whale Metrics Flash Mixed Signals: Monthly Inflows Rise And Daily Outflows Start Slowing A break above $122,000 could trigger the next push toward the $130K level, while a breakdown below $115,724 would open room for a deeper retrace, potentially toward the $113,000 area near the 50-SMA. As long as buyers defend the lower range, the trend remains intact, and a breakout seems likely—especially if macro indicators or on-chain signals support further upside. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Elon Musk’s SpaceX has raised eyebrows in the crypto community, following the transfer of its Bitcoin holdings for the first time in three years. This has raised concerns about the possibility of the company looking to offload its coins.  Elon Musk’s SpaceX Transfers Bitcoin Holdings To A Fresh Address In an X post, onchain analytics platform Arkham Intelligence revealed that Elon Musk’s SpaceX just moved Bitcoin for the first time in three years. The company sent 1,300 BTC ($153 million) to a fresh address this morning. Arkham then questioned whether this transfer was simply a move to cycle custody wallets or a plan to sell.  Related Reading: The Final Bitcoin Act: Here’s What To Expect As BTC Trends Sideways SpaceX transferred the funds to an unknown wallet (bc1q8….phartf), which suggests that this move is just for custody purposes rather than to sell them. Notably, the last time Elon Musk’s company moved some of its Bitcoin holdings was to Coinbase, three years ago, which was more of an indication to sell than this recent transfer.  There is a possibility that Elon Musk’s SpaceX would have likely moved this $153 million to Coinbase again, rather than to a new address, if it intended to offload these coins. Arkham data shows that the coins in the fresh address remain untouched following the transfer. Meanwhile, it is worth noting that the company still holds 6,977 BTC ($827.41 million) in its recognized wallets. SpaceX first disclosed its Bitcoin holdings in 2021. This was around the same time that Elon Musk’s Tesla also announced it had purchased Bitcoin and was exploring the possibility of accepting BTC as a payment option. Arkham data shows that Tesla 11,509 BTC, worth around $1.37 billion.  Tesla hasn’t moved any of its coins in the last nine months. Meanwhile, the company also ranks as the 10th largest public Bitcoin treasury, according to BitcoinTreasuries’ data.  Musk’s Belief In Bitcoin Is Growing Elon Musk’s belief in Bitcoin’s potential as a hedge looks to be growing, which again makes it unlikely that SpaceX is looking to offload its coins with its recent transfer. Earlier this month, the world’s richest man confirmed that his America Party will embrace Bitcoin as “fiat is hopeless.” He made this comment amid the passing of the Big Beautiful Bill, which increases government spending and is bullish for BTC since it has a limited supply compared to the dollar.  Related Reading: Hold On For Dear Life: This Bullish Bitcoin Metric Just Touched A 15-Year High Elon Musk had also allegedly liked a comment made by a crypto community member about the world’s richest man possibly stacking Bitcoin, given the government’s impending money printing. This suggests that Musk may indeed be looking to invest heavily in Bitcoin. BTC maximalist Max Keiser also opined that Musk would soon be a maximalist himself.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $18,600, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Arthur Hayes has never been shy about big numbers, but his latest essay, Time Signature, frames those targets inside a sweeping macro thesis: a wartime‑style US credit boom that—if it unfolds as he expects—could send Bitcoin and crypto markets into their largest bubble yet. Writing on 22 July, the BitMEX co‑founder argues that financial markets, like dancers, must keep time with the “kick drum” of credit creation. “If we are out of time, we lose money,” he warns, before identifying the beat he believes traders must follow today: US wartime industrial policy, or what he bluntly calls a shift toward economic “fascism.” Hayes centres his argument on the Pentagon’s newly announced deal with MP Materials, under which the US Defense Department will become the miner’s largest shareholder, guarantee a floor price for critical rare‑earth elements at twice China’s current market rate, and back a $1 billion bank loan to build a Nevada processing plant. The structure, he writes, is the template for “QE 4 Poor People,” a credit‑multiplier that expands the money supply without formal Congressional approval. Related Reading: Trump Shares Viral Bitcoin Breakdown — Here’s What He Posted In his schematic example a single commercial‑bank loan to MP Materials “creates $1,000 of new fiat wampum,” then ripples outward as wages, deposits and discounted Treasury borrowing. “The money multiplier is > 1, and this wartime production leads to an increase in economic activity, which is accounted for as ‘growth,’” Hayes observes. The result, he says, is inevitable inflation, yet also “government‑guaranteed profits” for banks and industry. Why Bitcoin And Crypto Is The Bubble Of Choice Hayes’ historical analogy is China’s 1990s–2020s property boom, where a five‑thousand‑percent expansion of M2 forced households into apartments, inflating land values and local‑government coffers. In the United States, he contends, the socially acceptable pressure valve will be digital assets. Two policy shifts underpin that call. First, retirement plans—an $8.7 trillion pool—may now allocate to crypto under a recent executive order. Second, the Trump campaign’s floated proposal to eliminate capital‑gains tax on digital assets could, in Hayes’ words, provide “insane war‑driven credit growth” with “no fucking taxes.” The broader attraction for politicians, he claims, is demographic: younger and more diverse investors own crypto in greater proportions than they own equities, so a bull market would “create a broader, more diverse set of people who are pleased with the ruling party’s economic platform.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Correlation To Altcoins Is Collapsing: A Warning Sign? Even a credit‑fuelled boom must find an audience for the mounting federal deficit. Hayes’ solution is the stablecoin sector, which already places most of its assets under custody in US Treasury bills. On-chain data, he notes, suggest that roughly nine cents of every new dollar in total crypto market value migrates into stablecoins. “Let’s assume that Trump propels the total crypto market cap to $100 trillion by 2028,” he writes; “that would create roughly $9 trillion in T‑bill purchasing power.” The mechanism recalls World War II financing, when the Treasury skewed issuance toward short‑term bills. In Hayes’ view, a self‑reinforcing loop emerges: wartime procurement fuels credit expansion, higher credit lifts crypto, larger crypto capitalization feeds stablecoin demand for T‑bills, and those purchases backstop further deficits. Trading Tactics—And The Year‑End Call Against that macro backdrop Hayes declares his investment vehicle, Maelstrom, “fully invested,” and explains why: “It’s pretty simple: Maelstrom is fully invested. Because we are degens, the shitcoin space offers amazing opportunities to outperform Bitcoin, the crypto reserve asset. […] Ether has been the most hated large-cap crypto. No more; the Western institutional investor class, whose chief cheerleader is Tom Lee, loves Ether. Buy first, ask questions later.” His numerical convictions are explicit: Bitcoin $250,000 and Ether $10,000 by 31 December 2025. The Western credit geyser is, he writes, “about to tear the market a new asshole.” Yet he repeatedly reminds readers that these are personal views, not investment advice. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $118,368. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s price remains in a zone where it is seeing little upward momentum as it continues to hover below its recent all-time high. After reaching above $123,000 earlier this month, the asset has pulled back slightly, trading at $119,343 at the time of writing. This represents a 2% gain over the past week but still leaves BTC roughly 3% below its recent peak. The muted price action reflects a market that appears to be consolidating amid diverging signals from on-chain indicators and regional demand metrics. Recent analysis from CryptoQuant contributors points to a weakening appetite for Bitcoin in both the US and South Korea, two markets that have historically contributed significant trading volume. A closer look at exchange activity and regional pricing premiums suggests a potential shift in investor behavior, as profit-taking becomes more prominent and traders appear hesitant to buy at current levels. Related Reading: Bitcoin Correlation To Altcoins Is Collapsing: A Warning Sign? Regional Premiums Point to Lower Demand from US and South Korea According to a post by CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain, the Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and other global exchanges, has failed to climb significantly despite BTC reaching record highs in July. The index remained around levels seen in June, suggesting that US investors using Coinbase have not been aggressively buying Bitcoin during the rally. Arab Chain noted that the index’s movement toward negative territory alongside Bitcoin’s price increase may indicate profit-taking among American investors. This implies that some may be anticipating a correction before re-entering the market. Similarly, the Korea Premium Index has declined, signaling reduced demand from retail investors in South Korea. This index reflects the spread between Bitcoin’s price on Korean exchanges and global averages. The negative trend suggests Korean traders have been selling below the global average, with weak buying interest on local platforms. Arab Chain interprets this as retail traders possibly waiting for a discount to reenter the market, indicating caution among individual investors in Asia’s key crypto hub. Exchange Inflows Suggest Rising Sell Pressure Adding to the picture, another CryptoQuant contributor, ShayanMarkets, highlighted a notable development in BTC’s on-chain activity. The latest data reveals Bitcoin has experienced its largest net inflow to exchanges since July 2024. Typically, large inflows signal that holders are preparing to sell, increasing supply on trading platforms and contributing to potential downward price pressure. ShayanMarkets explained that this behavior, especially when occurring near all-time highs, may indicate institutional or fund-driven profit-taking. Such moves often align with efforts to reduce risk exposure during overextended market rallies. Historically, spikes in exchange inflows have been followed by price corrections, making this a trend to monitor closely. Related Reading: Bitcoin Holders Are Taking Profits—But Is the Top Still Far Away? However, the redistribution of capital from Bitcoin into other assets may benefit the broader crypto market. The analyst noted that altcoins could see renewed interest as funds rotate out of BTC. If the trend continues, traders may observe increased volatility and speculative movement across alternative tokens in the short term. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

In a fresh post to X on 21 July, long-time cryptoc sceptic and gold advocate Peter Schiff urged holders of Ethereum (ETH) to exit while prices hover “near the upper end of its trading range.” “If you own any, this is a great time to sell,” he wrote, adding that—painful though it was for him to admit—flipping the proceeds into Bitcoin “is a better trade than holding Ether.” Sell Ethereum, Buy Bitcoin Schiff doubled down when quizzed by followers. “It’s not [better] as far as I’m concerned. I’m just looking at the charts,” he replied, arguing that Ethereum’s narrative faces “more acknowledged competition” than Bitcoin’s digital-gold storyline. At pixel time Ether changes hands at roughly $3,650 while Bitcoin trades just above $118,000, putting the ETH/BTC ratio near 0.031—toward the lower half of its five-year range. Related Reading: Institutional Demand Surges As Ethereum Sets New Inflow Records Schiff contends the ratio’s weakness reflects a structural bear market for Ether against Bitcoin. “I think Ether is in a bear market in terms of Bitcoin, and I think it just had a bear-market rally,” he told one user who pressed him for fundamentals, concluding: “So if you want to own crypto, selling Ether to buy Bitcoin makes sense.” Not everyone was persuaded. Veteran cycle watcher TechDev responded drily, “Thank you for your service sir,” reposting Schiff’s February “party is over” call that preceded Bitcoin’s spring rally. A Familiar Refrain—And A familiar Outcome Schiff’s latest chart-based admonition follows a string of bearish milestones that have mis-timed every major leg of Bitcoin’s secular advance. On 25 February he declared, “Turn out the lights, the #Bitcoin 100K party is over… the bear market is just getting started.” Less than five months later, Bitcoin still hovers comfortably above $118,000. Related Reading: Ethereum Open Interest Explodes To $28 Billion—Altcoin Rotation Begins: QCP Only a month after that February warning he predicted a full-blown crash to $10,000 once gold reaches $5,000, reasoning that Bitcoin would capitulate “95 % from its 2021 peak.” In late 2023 he ran a Twitter poll and concluded—contrary to the vote—that Bitcoin would “crash before the ETF launch.” Spot ETFs were approved in January 2024; Bitcoin never looked back. Back in November 2018, with Bitcoin trading at $3,800, he insisted it could “easily drop another 80 % from here, and at $750 it would still be expensive.” The rest is history. Now, Schiff argues that Ethereum’s smart-contract dominance is eroding as Layer-1 competitors gain mind-share and as regulators inch toward approving other altcoin spot ETFs. Whether the latest call joins the growing archive of ill-timed bearishness will turn on the ETH/BTC cross. If altcoin rotation doesn’t continue, Schiff may finally chalk up a win; if the ratio rolls over, his chart-reading case for a relative trade into Bitcoin will be vindicated even as his absolute bear thesis remains unproven. For now, the market is reserving judgment. At press time, Ether traded at $3,677. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

As Bitcoin (BTC) consolidates near the $119,000 mark following a new all-time high (ATH) above $123,000 last week, several on-chain indicators are presenting a mixed picture regarding the cryptocurrency’s next major move. Bitcoin On-Chain Data Shows Mixed Outlook According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Chairman Lee, BTC exchange reserves have risen noticeably since late June. This sharp uptick suggests increased profit-taking activity, which could weigh on BTC in the short-term. Large holders and miners have also been ramping up their deposits since July 18. However, overall inflows to centralized exchanges remain relatively low compared to the levels observed during major market tops earlier this year. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Ahead? DXY Breakdown Suggests Capital Shift To Risk-On Assets Meanwhile, the Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) count continues to decline – a trend often interpreted as a sign of long-term accumulation. Investors appear to be consolidating their coins, reducing active transactions and indicating strong conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term potential. For context, a declining UTXO count typically reflects reduced short-term selling pressure as holders move BTC into fewer wallets rather than trading them. This behavior is commonly associated with an overall bullish market outlook. Chairman Lee also pointed out that institutional and exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows remain robust. Year-to-date (YTD), nearly $50 billion has flowed into Bitcoin investment products despite temporary pauses due to profit-taking. Data from SoSoValue shows that US-listed spot BTC ETFs have recorded four consecutive months of positive inflows, with more than $18 billion added since April 2025. Similarly, total net assets held by these ETFs now exceed $151.6 billion. Can BTC Still Eye $180,000 Target? From a technical standpoint, Chairman Lee highlighted the $116,400 area as the immediate support zone. The analyst remarked: A breakdown below this level could extend the correction toward $112K–$110K. On the upside, holding above $116K keeps the structure intact for another push toward $124K–$130K. The analyst emphasized that as long as Bitcoin defends the $110,000 level, the broader bullish trend will remain intact. Moreover, if ETF and institutional inflows gain further momentum, BTC could still reach the ambitious year-end target of $180,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Set To Soar? Analyst Sees Fresh $2 Billion Liquidity Triggering Next Leg Up That said, some cautionary signs are beginning to emerge. On-chain data indicates that long-term holders are accelerating distribution, while short-term investors are entering the market in hopes of benefitting from further upside – behavior that has historically preceded local tops. On the contrary, the Bitcoin short-term holder Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) suggests that there may still be room for further growth in BTC’s price. At press time, BTC trades at $119,241, up 0.9% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

President Donald Trump has reignited crypto conversations online after sharing a viral video explaining Bitcoin during a U.S. Senate hearing. The clip, which features Director of Research at Coin Center, Peter Van Valkenburgh, offers a powerful defense of Bitcoin’s decentralized nature and its role as public financial infrastructure. What His Bitcoin Message Means As mentioned by MJTruthUltra’s post on X, President Donald Trump has shared a video of Peter Van Valkenburgh, Coin Center’s Director of Research, delivering a powerful and articulate explanation of Bitcoin during a US Senate hearing. Related Reading: Trump Media’s $2 Billion Bitcoin Buy Sparks Surge In Stock Price Speaking before the lawmakers, Van Valkenburgh described Bitcoin as the world’s first cryptocurrency, built on the first public blockchain network. He emphasized that Bitcoin allows anyone to send and receive value globally using just a computer and an internet connection without relying on trusted third parties like banks. He also highlights Bitcoin’s revolutionary nature as the first public digital payments infrastructure, compared to the internet information before money access. Unlike traditional financial systems, which rely on private banks to update ledgers and approve transactions, Bitcoin operates on a public blockchain that anyone can access, regardless of background or credit status. Van Valkenburgh stated that Bitcoin’s decentralized design directly addresses the inherent vulnerabilities of centralized systems, which often have single points of failure. These weaknesses have led to some of the most damaging security breaches in modern history. He points to high-profile incidents, such as the Equifax data breach, which exposed the personal information of 143 million Americans, the SWIFT network frauds, which totaled hundreds of millions, including cases involving North Korean hackers, and the $1.8 billion fraud at Punjab National Bank, which enabled internal exploitation of centralized trust. Van Valkenburgh also cites the 2016 Dyn botnet attack, which took down major websites. He extends these concerns to the Internet of Things, where hacks have compromised pacemakers, baby monitors, and even vehicles, all due to reliance on centralized control systems. He advocates for the development of more public digital infrastructure, like Bitcoin and Blockchain networks, to reduce reliance on powerful corporate intermediaries. These systems foster greater competition, resilience, and user empowerment by potentially replacing centralized chokepoints that are vulnerable to failure, censorship, and abuse. MicroStrategy Now Owns Over 600 Bitcoin While prominent figures in the financial and political landscape advocate for Bitcoin, institutional adoption continues to grow, with companies like Strategy purchasing the asset in large quantities. This rising interest from large-scale investors and businesses adds weight to BTC’s status as a reliable store of value. Related Reading: Bitcoin Holders Are Taking Profits—But Is the Top Still Far Away? BNB Swap revealed on X that Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, has again expanded its massive crypto and BTC treasury. The firm has acquired an additional 6,220 BTC, worth $739.8 million. This latest purchase pushes MicroStrategy’s total Bitcoin holdings to an astonishing 607,770 BTC, accumulated at an estimated cost basis of $43.6 billion. Featured image from iStock images, chart from tradingview.com

As the crypto market gears up for what many expect to be a major bull run in 2025, top analysts are beginning to share their most realistic price predictions for leading digital assets like Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Chainlink (LINK), Binance Coin (BNB), Aptos (APT), and others. Though their forecasts vary in optimism, there’s a shared consensus that significant gains are likely on the horizon.  Bitcoin, Ethereum, LINK, BNB And Aptos Price Forecast  As excitement builds around the next potential crypto bull run, well-known crypto analyst and YouTube host Altcoin Daily has released a fresh batch of “realistic” price predictions for major digital assets expected to perform strongly in 2025.  Related Reading: The Final Bitcoin Act: Here’s What To Expect As BTC Trends Sideways In the forecast posted on X social media, Bitcoin is expected to reach a peak of $150,000 during the next bull market. Currently trading at $117,629, the flagship cryptocurrency has pulled back from its recent all-time high above $123,000. To reach the projected $150,000 target, BTC would need to surge by roughly 27.52% from its current level.  Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, is also set for significant gains this cycle. Altcoin Daily forecasts that the altcoin is likely to hit $5,000 in 2025. Over the past few weeks, Ethereum has posted strong gains, overcoming key resistance and emerging from a prolonged consolidation phase. Now trading at $3,696, the top altcoin has surged by an impressive 61.45% over the past month. From this level, ETH would need to climb approximately 35.26% to reach a $5,000 peak. Weighing in on other major altcoins, Chainlink, the leading decentralized oracle provider, is expected to rise to $30, representing a potential surge of over 57% from its current price of $19.1. As for Binance Coin, Altcoin Daily anticipates a strong rally toward the $1,000 mark from BNB’s current price of $759.  For the final forecast, Altcoin Daily sets a $10 target for Aptos, a relatively newer Layer-1 blockchain. At the time of writing, the token is trading at $5.25, meaning it is expected to surge by approximately 90.5% to reach the expected peak.  Realistic Targets For 2025 Altcoin Season Offering a significantly more inclusive forecast, crypto analyst Domba.eth took to X to share realistic price targets for 19 major cryptocurrencies ahead of the anticipated 2025 altcoin season. In line with Altcoin Daily’s projection, Domba.eth forecasts a relatively similar peak range for BTC, ETH, and BNB. Related Reading: Altcoin Season Index Spikes Above 30, But Bitcoin Dominance Remains High, What Next? The analyst’s projection also extends to cryptocurrencies not covered by Altcoin Daily, including Solana, XRP, and Cardano. Notably, Solana is expected to rise between $300 and $500 during the upcoming altcoin season, suggesting a possible surge of 50% to 152% from its current price of $199.1.  XRP, which recently saw a sharp rally above $3.5, is forecasted to rise between $3.2 and $4.7, assuming positive sentiment remains strong and legal clarity improves. Meanwhile, Cardano is expected to reach a range of $1.2 to $2.1, representing a potential gain of roughly 38% to 141.4% from its present price of $0.87. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is turning heads once again as it climbs steadily within a rising channel, teasing a potential explosive move. According to chart watchers, the current rally aligns with Wave (5) of an Elliott Wave structure, historically the phase that unleashes the most aggressive price action. With momentum building and institutional demand ramping up, could this be the final leg before Bitcoin launches toward uncharted territory? Rising Channel Holds Firm As Wave (5) Builds Steam In a recent update, market analyst LSplayQ pointed out that Bitcoin is steadily climbing within a clearly defined rising channel, with the price now trading close to $118,000. This structured upward movement signals strong market confidence, with buyers consistently stepping in at higher levels to support the trend. Related Reading: Hold On For Dear Life: This Bullish Bitcoin Metric Just Touched A 15-Year High The analysis ties this momentum to an unfolding Elliott Wave formation, where Wave (5) is currently in play. The previous waves have displayed a clean pattern of higher highs and higher lows—a signature of impulsive bullish behavior. This suggests that Bitcoin’s price action is not random but follows a predictable rhythm often seen during strong uptrends. With Wave (5) potentially in progress, LSplayQ believes that Bitcoin could soon challenge the upper boundary of its rising channel. If this plays out as expected, the next target zone could be around the $140,000 region, a level that aligns with the broader technical projection of this ongoing wave structure. A breakout above the rising channel could spark even more aggressive upside, while any signs of weakness near these resistance levels might indicate a short-term pullback. However, the bullish setup remains intact for now as Wave (5) continues to unfold with precision. Institutional Buys Push Forward, But Technicals Urge Patience With institutions like Strategy continuing to accumulate, LSplayQ suggests that Bitcoin still has room to push higher. The growing interest from large-scale investors adds weight to the ongoing bullish momentum, further fueling optimism for an extended rally. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Eyes $123K Explosion—Traders Brace for Breakout However, there are signs that the market may be nearing a temporary exhaustion point. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is edging toward overbought territory, hinting at a potential cooling-off period. This doesn’t necessarily signal the end of the trend but could open the door for a short-term correction. Should a pullback occur, traders will likely shift their focus to key support zones. According to LSplayQ, the $99,531 level stands out as a critical area where buyers may step in to defend the uptrend. Holding above that threshold could set the stage for the next leg upward once the consolidation phase concludes. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Strategy (previously MicroStrategy), the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin (BTC), announced on Monday that it had acquired an additional 6,220 BTC during the week spanning July 14 to July 20.  This latest purchase brings the company’s total Bitcoin holdings to an impressive 607,770 tokens, acquired at an aggregate cost of approximately $43.61 billion, averaging $71,756 per Bitcoin. Strategy Stock Slumps Despite GENIUS Act Approval This announcement coincided with a breakthrough in the regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies, as the GENIUS Act successfully cleared the House and received final approval from President Donald Trump on Friday.  The new stablecoin legislation establishes federal guidelines for stablecoins. The passage of the GENIUS Act has provided a boost to cryptocurrency exchanges like Coinbase Global (COIN) and Robinhood Markets (HOOD), which saw their stock prices rise by 2.2% and 4.1%, respectively, following the news. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Breaks Above $0.26 In Weekend Rally As Pundit Predicts 2,600% Surge Despite the favorable regulatory environment, Strategy’s stock did not experience a similar surge. Instead, it fell by 7.2% over the course of Thursday and Friday, marking the company’s worst two-day performance since late May.  This decline mirrored the overall dip in Bitcoin prices, which had recently retreated toward the $117,000 zone from record highs above $123,000 earlier in the past week. Saylor Defends Bitcoin Strategy Reports note that the stock’s performance may have been impacted by a bearish research note from Gus Gala, an analyst at Monness, Crespi, Hardt, who reiterated a Sell rating on Strategy shares with a target price of $200.  Notably, Gala is the only analyst among 17 surveyed by FactSet to rate the Strategy’s stock as a Sell, which could contribute to investor caution. Amid these fluctuations, Strategy’s Chairman Michael Saylor remains a vocal advocate for the company’s Bitcoin strategy. In a recent post on social media site X (formerly Twitter), he encouraged followers to “Stay Humble. Stack Sats,” referring to Satoshis, the smallest unit of Bitcoin, emphasizing a long-term commitment to accumulating the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Hold On For Dear Life: This Bullish Bitcoin Metric Just Touched A 15-Year High As the market continues to adapt to shifting regulations, crypto supporters are eagerly awaiting the next legislative development: the CLARITY Act.  This bill, which passed the House with a vote of 294-134, aims to create a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets by distinguishing between securities and commodities and delineating oversight responsibilities among various federal agencies. When writing, the market’s leading cryptocurrency trades at $117,500, recording a 14% price surge in the monthly time frame, and nearly 74% year-to-date. With the recent price correction, the Bitcoin price is now 4% below its current all-time high achieved during last week’s rally.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Trump Media experienced a notable uptick in its stock price (DJT) on Monday, closing up 3% after an intraday rise exceeding 5% to reach $19,25 per share. This surge followed the company’s announcement that it had invested $2 billion in Bitcoin (BTC). Two-Thirds Of Assets To Bitcoin Treasury The media group, which encompasses President Donald Trump’s social media platform Truth Social, the streaming service Truth+, and the financial services brand Truth.Fi, revealed that the recent cryptocurrency purchases align with a strategy initially outlined in May to establish a Bitcoin treasury.  According to Trump Media, these Bitcoin assets now represent two-thirds of its total $3 billion in assets, signaling a deepened financial commitment to the world’s largest cryptocurrency. Related Reading: $331M In Shorts At Risk As Ethereum Targets Key Supply Level Devin Nunes, CEO and president of Trump Media, emphasized the company’s unwavering focus on executing its publicly announced strategy. He stated that these assets are designed to secure the company’s “financial independence” and protect it from potential discrimination by financial institutions.  Furthermore, Nunes mentioned plans to introduce a utility token within the Truth Social ecosystem, which could enhance user engagement and create new revenue streams. In addition to acquiring Bitcoin, Trump Media has allocated $300 million towards an “options acquisition strategy” focused on Bitcoin-related securities. Trump’s Regulatory Push Trump’s support for a more supportive regulatory environment in Washington, D.C., has resulted in significant price increases and surging adoption by public traded companies in the digital asset industry. Recently, President Trump signed legislation that establishes the first federal framework for dollar-backed stablecoins, a significant endorsement expected to foster greater adoption of these digital assets under the GENIUS Act.  This move coincides with the launch of World Liberty Financial, a new crypto startup supported by Trump and his sons, which recently introduced its own US dollar-pegged stablecoin, USD1, in collaboration with BitGo. Related Reading: Too Pricey? Expert Says XRP Beats Bitcoin And Ethereum Right Now Trump Media’s ambitious plans include raising $2.5 billion to further expand its Bitcoin treasury. This approach, which blends public equity and debt issuance, has drawn inspiration from Michal Saylor’s pioneering efforts at Strategy (previously MicroStrategy), where the company’s transformation into a Bitcoin powerhouse began in 2020. Despite the stock’s recent rally, the performance of Trump Media has been volatile. Since announcing its Bitcoin treasury strategy in late May, the stock has fallen 25%, and it is down 45% year-to-date. On the other hand, Bitcoin recently reached a new record price above $123,000. Since then, however, the cryptocurrency has struggled to consolidate within its latest range of $118,000 to $119,000 and has fallen back toward its current valuation of $116,960. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin’s recent price movement reflects a pause in the broader uptrend, with the asset trading at $117,901 following a near 5% weekly decline. While the current downturn may signal a cooling of investor enthusiasm, on-chain indicators suggest the market may still have room to expand before reaching an exhaustion point. Notably, activity among long-term holders and derivatives traders reveals continued interest and potential for price volatility. One of the standout indicators drawing attention is the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for long-term holders (LTH), which has climbed to a new high for 2025. Related Reading: Bitcoin Climbs, But NVT Indicator Sends a Surprising Signal SOPR Suggests Continued Room for Growth Before Cycle Peaks According to CryptoQuant analyst Gaah, this metric tracks the profitability of coins moved by holders who have kept their Bitcoin for more than 155 days. The latest reading shows that LTHs are beginning to sell at a profit, but the indicator has yet to reach historically critical levels associated with market tops. Gaah emphasized that although LTH SOPR has crossed the mid-range and currently sits slightly above 2.5, it remains well below the 4.0 threshold historically linked with macro tops in previous cycles. This implies that long-term investors are realizing gains, but not to an extent that would suggest market euphoria or widespread distribution. In past bull cycles, SOPR readings above 4.0 marked the onset of significant corrections or cycle tops. The gradual increase in profit-taking could indicate that the market is maturing while maintaining upward potential. Gaah notes that investors should interpret this as part of the natural progression of a bullish phase, though risks of correction still remain. The ongoing accumulation and realization patterns from LTHs provide insight into how confidence and caution can simultaneously exist in market behavior. Derivatives Market Remains Active Amid High Open Interest and Bullish Funding Rates In a separate analysis, CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain highlighted ongoing activity in the Bitcoin derivatives market as another crucial component of the current market landscape. Open interest, which represents the total number of outstanding futures contracts, remains elevated near $42 billion. This level, though slightly down from recent peaks, is still near historical highs and reflects strong trader participation. Arab Chain also highlighted the role of funding rates in shaping market sentiment. Currently, rising funding rates suggest dominance by long positions, indicating a bullish market environment. Related Reading: Hold On For Dear Life: This Bullish Bitcoin Metric Just Touched A 15-Year High When this sentiment is paired with high open interest, it may point to heightened risk of volatility, especially in an environment where leveraged trades are becoming more frequent. The analyst warned that a sudden price move could lead to widespread liquidations if funding becomes unsustainable, forcing exchanges to close out positions. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from Tradingview

As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to hover in the high $110,000 range, on-chain data suggests that a short-term price pullback may be imminent. That said, the broader market structure remains firmly bullish. Bitcoin Exchange Reserves Hit Near-Month High According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor ShayanMarkets, BTC reserves on centralized exchanges have risen to their highest level since June 25. This surge in exchange-held Bitcoin may signal increasing profit-taking activity among investors. Related Reading: Bitcoin Set To Soar? Analyst Sees Fresh $2 Billion Liquidity Triggering Next Leg Up A rise in BTC inflows to exchanges typically precedes distribution phases, as more coins become available for potential sale. This shift is often interpreted as a weakening in buy-side pressure, which could lead to a short-term price decline. ShayanMarkets commented: Historically, rising exchange reserves are associated with local market tops, as more BTC becomes available for potential sale. However, this metric alone should not be seen as a definitive trigger for immediate price drops. Broader market liquidity, sentiment, and demand dynamics remain key. The analyst emphasized that while higher reserves may suggest short-term selling pressure, they don’t necessarily indicate a reversal in trend. Any correction should be evaluated in context, unless accompanied by a significant change in macroeconomic or technical indicators. In a separate CryptoQuant post, analyst Darkfost pointed out a sharp uptick in Bitcoin whale activity. Notably, the last two Bitcoin local tops occurred when monthly average inflows from whales exceeded $75 billion. Between July 14 and July 18, average monthly inflows from whale wallets surged from $28 billion to $45 billion – a $17 billion jump. This pattern suggests that some whales may be taking profits following Bitcoin’s recent all-time high of $123,218 on Binance. What Does On-Chain Data Suggest? On-chain data also shows that long-term holders are distributing their BTC, while short-term holders are increasingly accumulating. This kind of rotation is often associated with late-stage rally behavior and potential exhaustion. Related Reading: Bitcoin Set To Soar? Analyst Sees Fresh $2 Billion Liquidity Triggering Next Leg Up Still, the short-term holder Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio currently sits at 1.15, well below the typical profit-taking threshold of 1.35. This suggests that there may still be room for further price appreciation before a broader selloff begins. However, not all indicators are reassuring. The Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross – a metric that compares network value to transaction volume – is trending higher, which may point to growing market froth. Likewise, exchange data from Binance indicates that BTC could be facing a near-term pullback. At press time, Bitcoin trades at $118,052, down 0.4% over the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s upward price trajectory has slightly cooled, with the asset now trading just below the $119,000 mark, reflecting a 3% decline over the past week. The dip follows a sustained upward trend that has seen significant interest from both institutional and retail participants in recent months. The current pause in momentum may suggest a temporary rebalancing, with market participants potentially reassessing their positions. As price movement stabilizes, on-chain analysts have begun to highlight deeper structural shifts within Bitcoin’s blockchain activity. According to CryptoQuant contributor Avocado onchain, one key trend gaining attention is the continued decline in Bitcoin’s Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) count. While at first glance this might seem related to falling transaction volumes, the underlying cause points to a more strategic restructuring by institutional participants. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whale Metrics Flash Mixed Signals: Monthly Inflows Rise And Daily Outflows Start Slowing Institutional Consolidation Reshaping On-Chain Structure Avocado explained that since December 2024, Bitcoin’s UTXO count has steadily decreased, a development he attributes to growing over-the-counter (OTC) activity and consolidation efforts by large holders. These entities, primarily whales and institutional investors, are reportedly merging multiple UTXOs into fewer addresses, a process that increases on-chain efficiency and reflects a preference for long-term custody. “The post-ETF approval environment has driven more assets into secure wallets, moving funds off exchanges into institutional-grade custody,” he wrote. This structural shift suggests that long-term holders are preparing for extended exposure rather than immediate market participation. Instead of dispersing funds for frequent trades, these institutions are consolidating their Bitcoin holdings into larger ones, indicating reduced near-term liquidity but possibly greater long-term market stability. The impact is visible in the on-chain footprint, where the number of active UTXOs has not kept pace with prior bull cycles. Bitcoin Muted Retail Activity and Future Market Signals While institutional activity appears to be solidifying, retail investor behavior remains subdued. Avocado noted that, unlike previous cycles where retail-driven volume increases contributed to UTXO growth, the current rally lacks that widespread grassroots engagement. The number of newly created UTXOs has remained relatively flat, reinforcing the view that retail participation is yet to catch up. Looking ahead, the analyst suggests that any renewed wave of short-term speculation, often sparked by sharp price movements, could reignite retail interest. This would be reflected in increased UTXO creation, exchange activity, and possibly greater volatility. Until then, the market appears to be led primarily by long-term strategic accumulation. Related Reading: The Final Bitcoin Act: Here’s What To Expect As BTC Trends Sideways Despite the current slowdown in price, underlying metrics remain constructive. Exchange inflows are moderate, long-term holders continue to accumulate, and institutional capital flows persist. These factors suggest that the market is still in a consolidative phase, rather than signaling a reversal. Should retail participation return and on-chain activity broaden, Bitcoin could see renewed upside supported by both foundational demand and speculative inflows. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Data shows Altcoins are breaking away from Bitcoin’s lead. Here’s what that could mean for the market, based on historical trends. Altcoins Are Witnessing A Fast Drop In Correlation To Bitcoin In a new post on X, analytics firm Alphractal has discussed how the Correlation between Bitcoin and the altcoins has changed recently. The Correlation is an indicator that keeps track of how tied together the prices of any two assets are. The metric can take on both positive and negative values. In both cases, some relationship exists between the assets, but the relative movement in their prices is different. Related Reading: This Ethereum Metric Called The Bottom Ahead Of Rally, Says Analytics Firm When the indicator has a positive value, it means one asset is reacting to movements in the other by moving in the same direction. The closer is the metric to 1, the stronger is this relationship. On the other hand, it being under zero suggests a negative correlation exists between the assets: they are moving in opposite directions. In this case, the extreme point lies at -1. If the Correlation is sitting exactly at zero, it suggests no relationship exists between the two prices at all. In statistics, this condition corresponds to the variables being independent. Now, here is the heatmap shared by Aphractal that shows the trend in the Correlation between Bitcoin and the various altcoins in the sector: As is visible above, the Correlation between Bitcoin and the different altcoins was close to 1 just earlier, but the indicator has seen a quick decline since then. The average value of the indicator for the two has now dipped toward the zero level and has even turned slightly negative. This change would suggest that while the altcoins were closely following the footsteps of the original cryptocurrency before, they are now following a chart that’s more or less independent. This trend, however, may not actually be a positive sign for the sector. “Historically, low correlation is a red flag,” explains the analytics firm. “It often precedes periods of high volatility and mass liquidations — whether from shorts or longs.” From the chart, it’s apparent that the last time the Correlation between Bitcoin and the altcoins plunged to zero was back in May, and what followed was a price jump for the asset. In January, the same trend marked the market top instead. Related Reading: XRP MVRV Ratio Flashes Signal That Last Led To 630% Surge The latest low Correlation between BTC and the alts has come as various assets have broken out and market dominance has seen a shakeup. “Altcoins have been outperforming Bitcoin in recent days, with daily signals suggesting it’s been more profitable to stay positioned in altcoins rather than BTC,” notes Alphractal. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $118,000, down more than 2.5% in the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, Alphractal.com, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin continues to trade within a tight range, consolidating above the $115,000 level and just below the key psychological barrier at $120,000. While the price structure remains bullish, market analysts are increasingly divided. Some expect Bitcoin to break higher toward uncharted territory, while others warn of an incoming correction, citing historical patterns and profit-taking behaviors. Related Reading: Ethereum Open Interest Hits Record $50 Billion – Volatility Incoming? Adding weight to the cautionary outlook, new data from CryptoQuant reveals a significant spike in whale activity. The Whale to Exchange Flow monthly average has surged by nearly $17 billion in just four days. This kind of jump historically coincides with either profit realization or increased volatility, as large holders adjust their positions. Although bulls are still in control of the trend, this level of whale inflow to exchanges may introduce short-term selling pressure, especially as Bitcoin hovers near its all-time high. The coming days could prove pivotal, as market participants assess whether this activity marks the beginning of a larger distribution phase or simply a healthy rotation within a bullish uptrend. Whale Inflows Surge, But Daily Trend Suggests Potential Easing Top analyst Darkfost has drawn attention to a critical development in Bitcoin’s market structure. According to his analysis, during the last two major market tops, exchange inflows from large holders surpassed $75 billion—an event that marked the beginning of a sharp correction or an extended consolidation phase. These inflows are a key signal, often indicating that whales are beginning to distribute their holdings after a strong rally. Currently, the data suggests a similar pattern could be unfolding. Between July 14 and July 18, the Whale to Exchange Flow monthly average surged from $28 billion to $45 billion, marking a $17 billion increase in just four days. While the recent 80,000 BTC transfer—linked to the Satoshi-era whale—likely played a role in this jump, it also reflects a broader trend: whales may be capitalizing on the recent all-time high to lock in profits. However, there’s an important nuance. Darkfost notes that while the monthly average has spiked, daily inflow data shows a noticeable decline. This suggests that the selling pressure from whales may be subsiding—at least temporarily. If the trend continues, it could provide the market with room to stabilize and potentially prepare for another leg up. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miner Sales Surge To Highest Level Since April – Details Bitcoin Consolidates Below Resistance Amid Bullish Structure Bitcoin continues to trade within a narrow consolidation range between $115,724 and $122,077, as shown on the 4-hour chart. Despite recent pauses in upward momentum, the broader structure remains bullish. The alignment of the 50, 100, and 200 simple moving averages (SMAs) confirms a healthy uptrend, with all three moving averages sloping upward and supporting the price action from below. The $122K level has proven to be a formidable resistance, rejecting multiple attempts to break higher. Meanwhile, the $115,724 support has remained intact, forming a clear short-term range. Volume has decreased over the last few sessions, which suggests indecision or a lack of conviction from bulls and bears alike. This kind of consolidation often precedes a breakout, especially when aligned with strong trend structure. Related Reading: Chainlink Sees Heavy Accumulation – Whales Add 8M LINK In One Month A decisive move above $122,077 with strong volume would likely confirm the next bullish leg, possibly targeting the $130K zone. Conversely, if bears gain ground and break below the $115,724 support, BTC could test the 100 SMA near $114,800 or even revisit deeper support zones. Until then, traders should closely monitor the volume profile and structure around these levels to anticipate the next breakout or breakdown. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

The percentage of Bitcoin’s long-term holders’ supply has reached a 15-year high, providing a bullish outlook for the flagship crypto. Asset manager Ark Invest highlighted this development in a recent report and explained what this could mean for BTC going forward.  Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Supply Hit 74% According to the Ark Invest report, the long-term holders’ supply has reached 74% of Bitcoin’s total supply, marking a 15-year high for this metric. The asset manager noted that this trend indicates growing market conviction in BTC’s role as a store of value or “digital gold.” These long-term holders refer to addresses that have held for 155 days or longer.  Related Reading: Michael Saylor Reveals The Only Thing ‘Better Than Bitcoin’ As MSTR Stock Outperforms This development comes at a time when Bitcoin is witnessing massive demand from institutional investors through the ETFs and treasury companies. These investors are considered better ‘diamond-hands’ than retail investors, which means that this metric could keep rising, with long-term holders gaining more control of BTC’s total supply.  This institutional buying has also driven the Bitcoin price to several all-time highs (ATHs) this year, with BTC reaching as high as $123,000 last week. The flagship crypto appears to still be in price discovery, as ETFs led by BlackRock and treasury companies, led by Saylor’s Strategy, continue to accumulate at an unprecedented pace.  Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest is ultra bullish on the Bitcoin price, predicting that it could reach $1.5 million by 2030. They expect BTC to reach this target due to the rising institutional investment and global recognition of Bitcoin’s ability to serve as a store of value. In a CNBC interview, Cathie Wood also doubled down on this prediction.  She explained that they expect BTC to take a significant share from gold or grow the store of value market. Wood added that institutions are still just testing the waters despite the massive accumulation so far. As such, she still expects a rise in adoption for these companies. Meanwhile, only about 1 million unmined Bitcoins are remaining.  Other Bullish Metrics For BTC The Ark Invest report also revealed that global liquidity per bitcoin reached a 12-year high. This metric reached this high with $5.7 million in global M2 supply per BTC in circulation. The asset manager remarked that this ratio could continue to rise given Bitcoin’s diminishing future supply growth and the continued expansion of global liquidity. Related Reading: This Analyst Predicted Bitcoin’s Rally To $120,000 Months Ago, Here’s The Rest Of The Forecast Meanwhile, in June, Bitcoin managed to hold above the support between $96,000 and $99,000 and is now well above these levels. $98,888, $96,278, and $71,393 are BTC’s short-term holder cost basis, 200-day moving average, and on-chain mean, respectively, which is why this development is bullish for the flagship crypto.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $19,100, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin has already shown a lot of strength in recent times, pushing as high as $123,000 before trailing back down toward $117,000. So far, it looks like the digital asset has hit a roadblock and is now possibly looking at a peak. But analyst Merlijn The Trader has explained that it is far from over for Bitcoin with more rallies to come. He reveals that the Bitcoin price is yet to stage its ‘final act’, which must happen before there are talks of a top. Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Is Still In Play After the Bitcoin price rallied to new all-time highs pre-halving, which had never happened before, there were talks that the 4-year cycle had been broken. For clarification, the 4-year cycle is tied to the Bitcoin halving events, which take place every four years, cutting block rewards for miners in half. Related Reading: Bitcoin Re-Enters Profit Zone As Greed Rises, But Rally To $200,000 Still Possible However, the reduction in block rewards is not the only interesting thing about the 4-year cycle, because each halving also ushers in a new bull market. This has been the case for the past three bull cycles, and Bitcoin is also expected to follow this. Historically, the market rallies for around a year after the halving, with the top being reached one year later. Going by this trend, the Bitcoin price and the crypto market at large are expected to keep rallying before topping later this year. Pointing to this 4-year cycle, the analyst forecasts another stretch of price increases. The chart shows that price often declines for one year and then rallies for three years, and so far, the Bitcoin price has only been rallying for two, leaving 2025 as another year for rallying. Additionally, Bitcoin is still a long way from levels that have previously marked the top of previous bull markets. Thus, there is still a while before it hits its peak in 2025. Besides, each bull cycle has seen Bitcoin rise 3x higher than its previous all-time highs, and it is year to hit even 2x higher than its previous $69,000 high. How High Can BTC Go? If the 4-year cycle is still in play, then it means that the Bitcoin price rally is far from done. In the analyst’s chart, he shows the possible top for Bitcoin based on past cycles, and BTC is still in the middle of the box. The top of this box puts the BTC price at around $200,000 before a top can be reached. Related Reading: XRP Hits New ATH, But $3.12 Retest Still In Play The analyst warns that Bitcoin is about to enter what he refers to as the “greenest stretch of them all”, pointing to another rally to all-time highs. If this forecast plays out, then Bitcoin is expected to see another 50% rally before the bull market is done. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

According to an on-chain analyst on X, Bitcoin has decoupled from other cryptocurrencies or altcoins, which could lead to a severe price downturn within the market over the next day. Why Traders Should Brace For Impact In a July 18 post on the social media platform X, Joao Wedson, founder of crypto analytics firm Alphractal, reported that the Bitcoin price might witness a significant drop over the next day. The crypto analyst based his conclusion on multiple results obtained from on-chain analysis using three major metrics.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Trades Above $117K as Whale Deposits Decline and Stablecoin Inflows Rise First, Wedson referenced an earlier post made on X by Alphractal, saying that the market is currently dominated by long positions. According to the analyst, the effect of these long positions wouldn’t necessarily last long in a market where the shorts have been liquidated — a phenomenon which also holds for the reverse case.  The chart above is from the Correlation Heatmap – BTCUSDT versus ALTCOINS metric, which reads the trajectory of the two crypto categories and compares them. Using the chart as a foundation, Wedson mentioned that altcoins are decoupling from Bitcoin.  When altcoins cease to follow the premier cryptocurrency’s lead, the development could be subject to a couple of interpretations, which affect market sentiment. As a result, it is normal to expect increased market volatility. Wedson also referenced the Altcoin Season Index Vs Bitcoin metric, which is used to measure if altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin within a specific period. According to the analyst, this Altcoin Season Index is currently on the rise, which is typically a positive sign for the altcoins.  However, if historical trends are anything to go by, a rising Altcoin Season Index might be a negative signal for Bitcoin. Wedson explained that the Bitcoin market might experience a dump, dragging along with it the currently rising Altcoins, to re-establish market balance. The crypto pundit also cited the Alpha Quant Signal as an influence in his conclusion. Wedson pointed out that the metric flashed a sell, which was expected, seeing as some significant whales recently added to the sell pressure on Bitcoin by selling a fraction of their holdings. Outlook For The Altcoins Even as the market flashes ominous signs, Joao Wedson expressed optimism in the viability of the beginning of an altcoin rally, saying he doesn’t believe this is the final leg down for the crypto market. “But it’s likely a sign that the market is about to form a new price base. So be cautious with the traps that might show up along the way,” the analyst added.  Related Reading: Ethereum’s Rally Isn’t What It Seems — Here’s What’s Really Driving It As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at about $117,783, reflecting a mere 0.2% price increase in the past 24 hours. Representing the other camp, Ethereum, the “king of altcoins,” jumped by 2.23% in 24 hours and is currently valued at $3,562. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin is currently holding above the $115,000 level after setting a new all-time high of approximately $123,000 last Monday. The price structure remains firmly bullish, with buyers still in control, but growing signs suggest the potential for a short-term correction. Momentum has slowed, and the market is entering a consolidation phase as traders reassess risk. Related Reading: Coinbase Premium Signals Aggressive Ethereum Accumulation: Institutional Demand Accelerates According to new data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin miner selling has surged sharply. On July 15, the same day Bitcoin reached its latest peak, daily BTC inflows to exchanges jumped from 19,000 BTC to 81,000 BTC — a clear sign that major holders, including miners and whales, took advantage of high prices to offload assets. Notably, miner outflows spiked to 16,000 BTC, the highest daily level since April, and nearly all of it was sent directly to exchanges. These inflows suggest a shift in sentiment among large players, raising the probability of increased supply pressure in the short term. While the broader trend remains intact, and fundamentals like long-term holder activity are still strong, the spike in exchange deposits is a classic signal to watch. Whether this leads to a deeper pullback or simply a healthy reset will likely be decided in the coming days. Miners Take Profits As Bitcoin Hits All-Time High Fresh data from CryptoQuant reveals that Bitcoin miners have resumed aggressive selling behavior as BTC reached a new all-time high of ~$123,000. On July 15, miner outflows spiked to 16,000 BTC — the highest single-day total since April 7. This level of activity represents what analysts at CryptoQuant describe as an “extreme outflow,” indicating that miners seized the opportunity to take profits at elevated prices. The miners sent nearly all the BTC they withdrew from their wallets directly to centralized exchanges. This reinforces the interpretation that the move was not simply a strategic reallocation but an active decision to sell into market strength. Such behavior often signals growing caution among miners, who may expect either near-term price exhaustion or are simply capitalizing on favorable conditions after months of holding. Miner behavior has long been viewed as a leading indicator of potential market shifts. When outflows rise — particularly to exchanges — it tends to precede increased volatility or temporary tops. While the broader Bitcoin trend remains bullish and investor demand stays strong, this wave of miner selling injects a dose of uncertainty. Related Reading: Ethereum Enters Top 30 Global Assets With $416B Market Cap – What’s Next? BTC Consolidates Below ATH After Explosive Rally The daily chart of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) shows price consolidating in a tight range between $115,730 and $123,230 after reaching a new all-time high. This zone is now acting as a short-term channel, with buyers defending the $115K area while facing resistance around $123K. The latest daily candle shows low volatility, suggesting indecision among traders as Bitcoin pauses after its recent breakout. Volume has tapered off following a massive spike that coincided with the all-time high breakout, a potential signal of exhaustion or reduced participation from large buyers. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $108,796 remains well below the current price, confirming the bullish momentum is still intact, but any breakdown below the $115K level could bring the 50-day SMA into focus as a potential support. Related Reading: All 40K Remaining Bitcoin From The 80K Whale Just Moved: $4.75B In One Wallet Now So far, the trend structure remains bullish, but with a growing number of analysts pointing to miner sales and whale activity, traders are closely monitoring price action for signs of a pullback or renewed breakout. If BTC can reclaim $123,230 with volume, the next leg up could follow. Until then, this consolidation may serve as a healthy cooldown before the next major move. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin is currently consolidating between $115,000 and its all-time high of $123,000, forming a tight range that has kept both bulls and bears on edge. Despite the recent surge, price action has slowed, and while bulls are holding strong above key levels, market participants are growing cautious about the potential for a correction. Related Reading: Ethereum Enters Top 30 Global Assets With $416B Market Cap – What’s Next? Adding to the uncertainty is the resurfacing of a Satoshi-era whale. Top analyst Darkfost has been tracking this long-dormant wallet, which recently transferred 80,000 BTC to Galaxy Digital, a major player in digital assets and AI infrastructure. The move immediately triggered speculation across the crypto space, as such large transfers are often associated with upcoming sales. The timing of this transfer is crucial. It coincides with increased exchange inflows and rising discussions of institutional profit-taking. With the market already in a delicate position, the possibility that a portion of this massive BTC stack could be sold has analysts and investors bracing for elevated volatility. Whale Starts Selling: 1,500 BTC Sent To Binance Darkfost has confirmed that Galaxy Digital has just moved 1,500 BTC to a Binance deposit address. These coins were previously part of the massive 80,000 BTC linked to a Satoshi-era whale who recently reactivated their wallet. The latest transfer suggests that a portion of this historic stash is officially up for sale. At current prices, the 1,500 BTC represents around $180 million in market value. More importantly, it marks one of the fastest and most significant offloads ever recorded from a single wallet, with the total 80K BTC valued at roughly $9.54 billion. While they have only moved a small fraction to exchanges so far, the sale could signal larger intentions. Some view this transfer as a potential warning sign, especially given the current consolidation above $115K. In their view, such high-volume activity from a long-term holder might precede further profit-taking or even a broader correction. Others, however, see it as a smart and well-timed move from an investor who has held since Bitcoin’s earliest days and is finally realizing some gains. Related Reading: Coinbase Premium Signals Aggressive Ethereum Accumulation: Institutional Demand Accelerates BTC Price Holds Tight Range After ATH Bitcoin is currently trading at $118,000, consolidating within a tight range between $115,730 and $123,230, as shown in the 12-hour chart. This comes after a strong breakout earlier this month that pushed BTC to a new all-time high of $123,230. Since then, price action has shown signs of cooling without a major pullback, suggesting bulls remain in control, but short-term momentum is slowing. The chart displays a healthy structure, with BTC trading well above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day simple moving averages, which are currently at $111,819, $108,563, and $102,963. This confirms strong trend support from long-term holders and momentum investors. Related Reading: Altcoins Reclaim Key Technical Level – Can Momentum Sustain This Time? Volume has increased during the move higher, indicating conviction behind the breakout, but the last few candles show lower follow-through volume, consistent with a consolidation phase. If BTC holds above $115,730, the structure remains bullish and could lead to another breakout toward $130,000 and beyond. A break below this level, however, could open the door for a deeper retracement, with the $112K–$111K zone acting as key moving average support. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin’s recent price action has continued its upward trajectory, with the asset trading as high as above the $120,000 price mark in the past 24 hours. The move suggests persistent bullish momentum following a period of sharp decline earlier this week. As the price inches closer to its all-time high, on-chain data is starting to paint a picture of solid transactional support behind the price movement. In particular, analysts have begun highlighting a divergence between Bitcoin’s market value and its underlying network activity. One such observation comes from CryptoQuant analyst Sunflowr Quant, who shared insights in a recent QuickTake post examining the unusual behavior of the NVT Golden Cross indicator. This metric, typically expected to rise in tandem with price due to its function as a ratio between market cap and transaction volume, is currently declining, which Sunflowr attributes to a significant uptick in on-chain activity. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Not Over Yet? Short-Term Holder MVRV Suggests Further Upside Bitcoin On-Chain Growth Suggests Underlying Network Strength According to Sunflowr, this inverse correlation between the rising BTC price and falling NVT Golden Cross may indicate that the current rally is driven more by actual usage and real transactions on the Bitcoin network rather than speculative trading. “A decline in the NVT ratio during a price increase implies that the transaction volume is rising at a faster pace than the market cap,” he wrote. “This can be interpreted as a sign that the rally is supported by real economic activity.” This observation aligns with the broader sentiment that healthy on-chain growth can serve as a foundation for more sustainable price increases. If transaction volumes are growing organically and not solely from derivatives speculation, it suggests that user adoption and financial utility are contributing to the price strength. Investors closely watching these indicators may find this a favorable environment, though caution remains as other metrics hint at evolving market dynamics. Holder Rotation Signals Potential Shift in Market Participation A separate analysis from CryptoQuant analyst IT Tech sheds light on another dimension of Bitcoin’s current market structure: holder behavior. In a post titled “Holder Rotation,” IT Tech notes that long-term holders, those who have held BTC for more than 155 days, have recently begun net distribution, meaning they’re selling more than accumulating. Conversely, short-term holders are showing net accumulation behavior once again, a dynamic often seen in late-stage rallies. This shift between long-term and short-term holders has historically served as a warning signal. Similar handoffs were observed in April 2021 and November 2023, both of which preceded local tops or cooling phases. While this doesn’t necessarily confirm a reversal, it highlights the need to monitor supporting metrics such as exchange inflows and funding rates. Related Reading: Bitcoin Trades Above $117K as Whale Deposits Decline and Stablecoin Inflows Rise “It’s a classic profit-taking pattern from seasoned wallets, while newer market participants may be entering due to rising prices,” IT Tech wrote. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to set new all-time highs (ATH) – reaching $123,218 on Binance on July 13 – on-chain data reveals a shift in holder behavior that could threaten the cryptocurrency’s bullish momentum. Bitcoin Holder Rotation May Derail Rally According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor IT Tech, long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) – those holding BTC for over 155 days – have transitioned into net distribution, suggesting seasoned investors are engaging in profit-taking. Meanwhile, short-term holders (STH) – those who have held BTC for less than 155 days — have recently turned net positive, indicating they are buying into BTC’s current rally in anticipation of further gains. Historical data shows that similar trends among LTH and STH were observed back in April 2021 and November 2023. During both these instances, BTC witnessed a cooling phase or a local top when spot demand faded. Related Reading: Bitcoin Exchange Inflows Spike After $123,000 Peak – Signs Of Short-Term Cooling? In their analysis, IT Tech suggested keeping an eye on exchange inflows and funding rates for confirmation. If spot BTC inflows to crypto exchanges surge, it could hint that sell-pressure is likely to increase, which may derail the digital asset’s bullish trajectory. Supporting this view, CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain noted that the Spent Output Value Ranges (SOVR) indicator shows a spike in BTC transfers to exchanges from wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC – typically associated with whales. For the uninitiated, the SOVR indicator tracks on-chain BTC transfers by value buckets to identify which investor segments are active. It helps reveal whether retail, mid-sized, or institutional players are driving market activity. This aligns with IT Tech’s observations on long-term holders. If selling pressure intensifies, BTC could correct down to a support level near $111,800. Not All Analysts See Rally Exhaustion Although Bitcoin LTH entering distribution phase, and whales increasing their deposits to crypto exchanges may point toward a potential end for the current rally, not all analysts share the same sentiment. Related Reading: Bitcoin Profit-Taking Spikes Without Price Drop – Strong Demand Or Delayed Reaction? For instance, the STH Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) suggests BTC may still be undervalued, indicating potential for further upside. If that holds, Bitcoin could climb as high as $150,000 before any major pullback. Additionally, a fresh injection of $2 billion in liquidity to major crypto derivatives platforms could help reignite bullish momentum. However, caution remains warranted. The Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross has been climbing steadily, giving early signs of an overheated market. At press time, BTC trades at $118,754, up 0.4% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

As Bitcoin (BTC) consolidates just below the $120,000 mark, concerns are mounting over whether the top cryptocurrency’s bullish momentum is fading. However, some analysts believe BTC still has room to grow, citing key on-chain indicators. Bitcoin Rally Far From Over According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Darkfost, Bitcoin’s rally is not yet over. The analyst points to the Short-Term Holder (STH) Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) indicator as evidence. Related Reading: Bitcoin Profit-Taking Spikes Without Price Drop – Strong Demand Or Delayed Reaction? For context, STH MVRV measures the profitability of Bitcoin held by short-term investors – typically those who acquired BTC within the last 155 days – by comparing the current market price to their average purchase price. When the STH MVRV is high, it suggests short-term holders are in profit and may sell. On the contrary, a low or negative MVRV indicates undervaluation and potential for further upside. Darkfost noted that during the current market cycle, unrealized profits among STH have yet to surpass the 42% threshold. Historically, every time the STH MVRV reaches around 1.35 – implying a 35% unrealized profit – it has triggered a wave of profit-taking, followed by short-term price pullbacks. As of now, the STH MVRV stands at approximately 1.15, well below the profit-taking zone. The analyst attributes this to the STH realized price exceeding $100,000 for the first time in Bitcoin’s history on July 11. At the time of writing, this realized price has risen above $102,000, providing BTC with a robust support base. To clarify, STH realized price refers to the average price at which all Bitcoin held by short-term holders was acquired. When Bitcoin’s current market price remains above this level, it reflects growing market confidence among newer investors. Darkfost added that BTC could rise another 20–25% before the STH MVRV reaches its critical level again. If this projection holds, Bitcoin could potentially hit $150,000 before the next wave of widespread profit-taking. Fresh Liquidity May Help, But Exercise Caution Bitcoin may also benefit from fresh liquidity entering the market. Fellow CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha recently highlighted a $2 billion USDT deposit into major derivatives trading platforms, signaling potential leverage buildup. Related Reading: No Mania Yet: Bitcoin ATH Lacks Hype, Suggesting Further Upside Potential Similarly, favorable macroeconomic conditions are expected to support risk-on assets like Bitcoin. The recent weakness in the USD has fuelled optimism around capital rotating into cryptocurrencies and other high risk-reward assets. ​​However, BTC inflows to centralized exchanges have been steadily rising as well, suggesting a short-term correction could be on the horizon. At press time, BTC trades at $118,862, down 0.2% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Bitcoin continues to maintain upward momentum despite a recent pullback from its all-time high. Currently trading at $117,847, the asset has recorded nearly a 10% gain over the past week. The dip from peak levels, approximately a 4.1% decline, has not dampened broader investor sentiment, with several on-chain indicators suggesting renewed buying interest and reduced selling pressure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Retail Demand Rebounds – $0–$10K Transfer Volume Turns Positive Bitcoin Whale Withdrawals Decline, While Stablecoins Flow In In a recent analysis posted to CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, analyst Amr Taha shared insights pointing to a strategic change in behavior among key Bitcoin holders and investors. The report, titled “Stablecoin Flood and Whale Retreat: Binance Moves Foreshadow Risk-On Sentiment”, outlined significant trends in whale activity and stablecoin flows that may support continued bullish momentum in the near term. Taha’s research highlighted a steep reduction in whale-level Bitcoin deposits on Binance. Over the past 30 days, these deposits have dropped from $6.75 billion to $4.5 billion, a $2.25 billion decline. Historically, large deposits from whales to centralized exchanges often signal an intention to sell, so the recent drop may imply a reduction in immediate sell-side pressure. This could stabilize Bitcoin’s price in the short term, especially if whales continue to hold or move assets to cold storage instead of preparing them for sale. At the same time, stablecoin flows have increased dramatically across major exchanges. On July 16, Binance and HTX saw combined stablecoin inflows exceeding $1.7 billion. Taha interpreted this as an indication that large entities, possibly institutions or whales, are preparing to accumulate digital assets. Large stablecoin deposits often precede significant buying activity, suggesting that the market could be gearing up for another leg higher, particularly if paired with reduced sell-side movements. Macroeconomic Developments and Miner Sentiment Add Context This on-chain activity is unfolding amid broader economic and political developments. Taha’s report also pointed to speculation around President Donald Trump’s comments during a private meeting, in which he reportedly considered replacing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Though later denied, the remark sparked reactions in traditional markets, including a weaker dollar and rising bond yields. These shifts signaled a rotation into risk assets, potentially benefiting crypto markets as investors reallocate capital in anticipation of a more accommodative monetary stance. Related Reading: This Bitcoin Thesis ‘Will Retire Your Bloodline,’ Says Expert Separately, CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain analyzed Bitcoin’s miner profitability using the Puell Multiple indicator. The data shows that while miners are currently making solid profits, the level has not reached historical peaks seen during prior market tops. In the 2017 and 2021 cycles, extreme miner profitability (indicated by Puell readings exceeding 2.0–3.0) often preceded sharp price corrections. At current levels, Arab Chain believes the market is not in a euphoric state, reducing the likelihood of imminent volatility due to miner-driven selloffs. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView