THE LATEST CRYPTO NEWS

Bitcoin is trading in a vulnerable position, hovering below the critical $115K level and flirting with a potential breakdown towards $110K. After weeks of bullish momentum that propelled BTC to new highs, the market has entered a phase of caution and fear. The enthusiasm that once drove relentless buying has faded, replaced by increased selling pressure and defensive positioning from traders. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Overheated? Key Signal Flashes Warning Similar To 2021 And 2024 Market Tops Key data from CryptoQuant reveals that the futures market is leaning bearish, even as Bitcoin attempts to consolidate within its current range. Open interest remains elevated, but the Net Taker Volume suggests that sellers are increasingly aggressive, prioritizing execution speed over price. This shift in sentiment is a warning sign that the market structure is fragile. Analysts caution that Bitcoin is now highly susceptible to negative catalysts. Any adverse news or market trigger could unleash a cascade of long liquidations, amplifying bearish pressure and pushing BTC below key support levels. With market sentiment teetering and futures positioning skewed to the downside, Bitcoin is entering a critical phase where the next move could define whether it stabilizes for another rally — or accelerates into a deeper correction. The coming sessions will be pivotal for Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory. Bitcoin Futures Market Remains Fragile Despite Slight Easing Of Bearish Pressure Top analyst Axel Adler shared critical insights regarding Bitcoin’s current market structure, highlighting rising concerns in the futures market. After Bitcoin reached a new all-time high, bearish pressure on futures intensified, peaking at –7.5% on July 29th. Although this figure has slightly eased to –5.2%, Adler warns that the market structure remains fragile and highly susceptible to external shocks. Despite Bitcoin’s attempts to consolidate above $110K, futures market dynamics suggest an underlying weakness. Open interest remains high, and taker sell volume continues to outpace buying activity. Adler points out that while the immediate selling pressure has cooled off marginally, the imbalance between aggressive sellers and passive buyers exposes the market to a potential liquidation cascade. Any negative catalyst — such as regulatory developments, macroeconomic shifts, or a large sell-off — could trigger a rapid sequence of long liquidations. This would instantly amplify bearish momentum, pushing Bitcoin’s price lower and potentially accelerating a deeper correction phase. Some analysts are now warning of a possible drop below the $100K psychological level if the market fails to stabilize. The coming weeks will be critical, as Bitcoin hovers near key support zones while futures market sentiment remains bearish. Related Reading: Ethereum Consolidation Deepens As Taker Buy/Sell Ratio Hits One Of The Lowest Levels This Year BTC Struggling Below Key Resistance Amid Weak Momentum Bitcoin is currently trading at $114,061, showing signs of weakness after failing to reclaim the $115,724 resistance level. The recent bounce from the $112,000 zone lacked strong follow-through, as price action remains trapped below the key moving averages. The 50, 100, and 200-period SMAs are now acting as dynamic resistance levels, compressing BTC within a tight range and signaling a fragile market structure. Bears are defending the $115,724 resistance, which coincides with the 100 and 200 SMA zones, making it a significant barrier for bulls to overcome. If Bitcoin fails to break above this level in the coming sessions, the probability of a retest of the $112,000 support increases, with potential downside extensions toward $110,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Demand Holds Strong Despite Price Drop: Accumulation Trend Remains Intact The overall structure indicates a bearish consolidation, with lower highs forming since late July. The next decisive move will likely be triggered by external catalysts, as the market awaits fresh momentum to determine the trend. A breakout above $115,724 could open the door for a test of $117,000, while failure to reclaim that level keeps BTC vulnerable to deeper corrections. For now, caution dominates the short-term outlook. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Crypto analyst Mark Cullen has laid out the game plan for the Bitcoin price amid the flagship crypto’s choppy price action. Based on his analysis, BTC could either crash to $100,000 or rally to $122,000, close to its current all-time high (ATH) of $123,000.  The Game Plan For The Bitcoin Price In an X post, Mark Cullen shared what he described as the ‘Bitcoin game plan.’ He noted that BTC is filling out the inefficient area between the two previous weekly ranges. The analyst further remarked that the next move will be determined by how the Bitcoin price breaks out or breaks down from this range.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Completes Inverted Head & Shoulders Pattern Above $110,000, What This Means Cullen stated that a break above $116,000 and holding above the previous range low could help the Bitcoin price build a bullish structure for a bigger squeeze to new ATHs later this month. His accompanying chart showed that BTC could first rally to around $122,000, close to its current ATH, before it breaks above to new highs.  On the other hand, there is also the possibility of the Bitcoin price declining further. The analyst stated BTC is likely to crash to $100,000 if it loses the weekend low at around $111,000 and fails to attempt a reclaim of $112,000. Cullen declared that critical weeks’ price action is ahead for the flagship crypto, seeing as it is at a crossroads.  It is worth mentioning that BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is one of those who believe that the Bitcoin price could still crash to $100,000. Hayes recently predicted that BTC will retest this level while ETH retests $3,000. He alluded to the tariffs as one of the reasons crypto prices would drop this low. The crypto founder also suggests that there is currently no available liquidity to boost the prices of these assets. The last time that Bitcoin was at $100,000 was towards the end of June, before it then went on to reach new all-time highs in July. BTC Could Still Drop To As Low As $95k Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has indicated that the Bitcoin price could still drop to as low as 95,000. In an X post, he noted that the last two times the weekly RSI dropped below the 14 SMA, BTC corrected by 20% to 30%. Therefore, he remarked that the flagship crypto could fall to $95,000 if history repeats itself.  Related Reading: Satoshimeter Shows Where Bitcoin Price Is In This Cycle In the meantime, the $112,000 level is the level to watch for the Bitcoin price. Titan of Crypto described this level as the line in the sand,” as BTC continues to reject the bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) at around $114,000. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $114,000, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The Bitcoin price has rebounded once again after initially testing the waters with a crash to $112,000. This was spurred by profit-taking as the digital asset had risen to levels not seen before back in July 2025. However, this recovery does not mean that Bitcoin is completely out of the water, especially given the fact that it has retraced to a level that would be considered bearish at this point. Bearish FVG Could Send Bitcoin Price Crashing In an analysis, crypto analyst Kamran Asghar revealed that the Bitcoin retrace could only be temporary and short-lived as it has moved back into a bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG). This comes after a small bounce from $112,000 toward $115,000, with this bearish FVG lying between $114,000 and $115,500. Related Reading: Pundit Says Ethereum Price Is Headed For $9,000 After This Broadening Wedge Retest This fair value gap had been created following the price crash from $118,000, suggesting that the Bitcoin price would be looking to fill it again. Additionally, this level acts as a major supply zone, meaning that bulls would have to turn up the buying if the Bitcoin price is to cross this level without issue. Given the fact that the bearish FVG and the supply zone are riding ahead of the cryptocurrency, it shows that there is a lot of resistance building at this level. Kamran suggests that the next move after hitting this supply zone would be a rejection from this level, leading to a further beating down of the price. How Low Could BTC Go? In the event of a hard rejection, the crypto analyst sees the Bitcoin price tumbling further downward into mid-July levels between $107,500 and $109,000. This would mean another 5% crash for the Bitcoin price before it is able to find support. Related Reading: Analyst Warns XRP Investors Not To Let Fear Dictate Moves As Long As Price Holds This Level The silver lining of this possible crash is the fact that Bitcoin has major support at this level. Thus, Bitcoin bulls could stage a rebound using this level as the next lift-off point for a recovery. Due to this, the crypto analyst warns investors to keep an eye on the digital asset to see how it reacts at this level. Interestingly, at this time, the Bitcoin funding rate is still positive, Coinglass shows. What this means is that traders believe that the digital asset is still in a bull market, and more investors are betting on the price continuing to rise from here. However, the positive funding rate has seen some decline in the month of August, suggesting a slowdown among bulls. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is currently undergoing a period of downward movement after briefly setting a new all-time high earlier last month. Over the past week, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has declined by nearly 4%, trading at $113,993 at the time of writing. This represents a drop of approximately 7.2% from the peak price of above $123,000 reached in July. The decline has sparked renewed discussion among analysts about the asset’s current price discovery phase and what it could mean for the remainder of 2025. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is Secretly Tracking This Market Signal: Weiss Crypto Bitcoin Price Discovery and the Potential for Q4 Gains CryptoQuant analyst Oinonen shared his latest assessment of Bitcoin’s market performance, noting that while the recent pullback appears significant, it primarily reflects technical market conditions. In his post on the QuickTake platform, he explained that a combination of macroeconomic uncertainty, technical indicators turning bearish, and liquidation events has contributed to the decline. However, he described the ongoing situation as a “technical correction” within Bitcoin’s longer-term bullish structure. Despite the short-term weakness, analysts remain focused on Bitcoin’s price discovery process. This phase, according to Oinonen, is essential in establishing the asset’s fair market value as supply and demand interact in the market. Following the all-time high of $123,400 on July 14, Bitcoin appears to be consolidating, potentially setting the stage for further upward movement later in the year. “Bitcoin has historically performed well in the fourth quarter,” Oinonen noted, suggesting that a return to its previous peak and even a potential move toward $200,000 could be on the horizon if historical patterns hold. Additionally, the analyst pointed to Binance’s high stablecoin reserves as a factor that may influence Bitcoin’s trajectory. These reserves represent capital that could flow into Bitcoin and other digital assets if market sentiment improves. A positive shift in buying activity, combined with Bitcoin’s reflexive market behavior, could support further gains, although the extent to which this would benefit altcoins remains uncertain. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Losing Steam? Analysts Warn of Fragile Market Support Caution Over Negative Coinbase Premium Signals While some market participants anticipate a possible rebound later this year, other analysts are urging caution. Another CryptoQuant contributor, known as BQYoutube, highlighted a recent change in the Coinbase Premium Index, a metric comparing prices on Coinbase versus other exchanges. Since June 30, the premium has shifted to negative, indicating weaker buying pressure from US-based investors. “Historically, stronger Bitcoin rallies have coincided with a positive Coinbase Premium,” BQYouTube wrote, suggesting that traders may want to wait for signs of renewed spot demand before expecting a sustainable uptrend. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

In his August 5 “Macro Monday” livestream, crypto analyst Josh Olszewicz delivered a review of the market’s late-summer state, arguing that while Bitcoin’s price action has gone quiet, the broader cycle remains intact. “We’re in this pocket of seasonal weakness for August and September that we typically see most years,” he explained, pointing to seasonality charts showing that historically, Bitcoin underperforms in this time window. “It’s a high likelihood that August and September is a giant nothing burger,” he added. Is The Bitcoin Bull Run Over? At day 978 of the current cycle, the question many investors are asking, Olszewicz noted, is simple but existential: is the cycle already over? Will it end this year? Or is there more upside ahead? His answer leaned cautiously optimistic. “I’m in the ‘probably not over yet, could continue’ camp,” he said. “But we will have to see what happens in Q4. Ultimately, that’s going to determine it.” From a technical standpoint, the analyst sees no reason to declare the top is in. “Technicals still look fine. Price still looks okay. We had a pullback. All that is fine,” he said, emphasizing that Bitcoin has not yet exhibited the typical parabolic advance associated with major tops. Nor have other macro or on-chain metrics shown signs of terminal overheating. “We don’t have other metrics screaming from the rooftop saying it’s time yet.” Related Reading: Top Analyst Says Bitcoin Is Trapped: ‘Nothing To Do Until October’ However, the short-term setup is underwhelming. After a cup-and-handle breakout that briefly pushed price toward the $122,000–$123,000 region, momentum faded. Olszewicz doubts such levels can be reclaimed soon: “In the next two weeks we’ll know if we can start to creep back towards $120,000, which is asking a lot admittedly for August.” The wildcard, he said, is ETF flows. “Do we see ETF flows for any reason? Then do we see treasury companies continuing to buy? Those are the marginal buyers right now.” He suggested that ETF buyers could return due to a combination of underweight positioning, opportunistic dip-buying, and monthly rebalancing dynamics. Still, he remains neutral overall. “Just a general softening of any bullishness we may have had,” he said. “Now it’d be a different story if this is October and we’re seeing this. That’s not normal.” A further reason for caution is the collapse in futures basis across major assets. “Premium is all the way down to under 7% on BTC. It’s under 8% on ETH. And I think SOL is a little more illiquid, but even SOL is way down—15% from 35%,” he noted. That contraction in futures premiums, typically a sign of speculative demand drying up, reflects a broader risk-off mood. “Not a lot of bullish sentiment, not a lot of craziness,” Olszewicz observed. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Losing Steam? Analysts Warn of Fragile Market Support On-chain risk metrics confirm the trend. “There’s a decline here in risk appetite,” he said, referring to metrics like unrealized profit versus MVRV. He added that if Bitcoin were to enter a parabolic advance, “you will see this metric shoot up… But what’s it going to take?” Q4 Or Bust He floated a few possibilities: rate cuts, weakening Fed independence, or perhaps just seasonal strength and macro chaos in Q4. But for now, he advised traders to “take it easy on the 50X leverage,” especially those who’ve already made significant gains this cycle. “Do I need to put risk back on? Do I need to be as risky as I was earlier?” he asked rhetorically. “Or does it make more sense to be less risky here?” From a macroeconomic perspective, the picture is mixed. Inflation data from Trueflation remains low—currently at 1.65%—but Olszewicz warned that new post–August 1 tariffs may raise prices in the months ahead. “We are adding inflationary pressures with tariffs, no doubt about it,” he said, though the effect will take time to appear in the data. Meanwhile, core PCE is headed in the wrong direction, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is printing 2.1% growth for Q3—hardly recessionary, but not robust either. Labor market data continues to cloud the outlook. “If we account for a non-collapsing labor force participation, we could be as high as 4.9% on the actual unemployment rate,” Olszewicz warned. “And we’re continuing to see a degradation in job availability for manufacturing,” particularly in “Heartland Rust Belt types of jobs.” Liquidity dynamics are also in flux. He drew attention to the draining of the Fed’s reverse repo facility—once a $2 trillion reservoir of sidelined capital—which has supported risk assets through 2023 and 2024. “As this gets drained closer to completion, there’s a potential likelihood for liquidity hiccups and a liquidity intervention by the Fed,” he said. Importantly, this has kept overall US liquidity flat, offsetting quantitative tightening. “Despite QT, the drain of the reverse repo has offset QT, and US liquidity by this metric has been basically flat since 2022.” What changed the game, Olszewicz said, was not liquidity per se, but the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs. “That has really been, in my opinion, a big difference maker,” he explained. “We got ETF approvals here, ETF started trading here, and the rest is history as far as flows are concerned.” In conclusion, Olszewicz emphasized that while the broader risk appetite has declined and price action remains dull, there is no evidence yet that the Bitcoin cycle has topped. “The cycle’s probably not over,” he said. “It’s just sleeping—and Q4 will ultimately determine whether it wakes up.” At press time, BTC traded at $113,041. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Following another rejection from the $120,000 region on July 21, Bitcoin (BTC) is now holding steady around the $115,000 level. However, realized price data suggests that BTC’s surface-level calm may be nearing its end. Old Bitcoin Whales Stop Realizing Gains According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Kripto Mevsimi, Bitcoin whale behavior indicates that the asset may be walking a tightrope. While “old whales” have stopped realizing profits, newer whales remain slightly in the green – though only marginally. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETF Market Flashes Warning: IBIT Outflows Paired With Drop In Tron USDT Transfers Here, old whales refer to large BTC holders who have held the digital asset for more than a year. New whales – including institutional players – are those who entered the market within the past year. Kripto Mevsimi notes that the current balance between old capital and newly invested capital may not hold much longer. A decisive break in either direction could push BTC into a new price range. The chart below illustrates the rising realized cap of old whales from 2022 to 2024, confirming that this cohort steadily realized profits during that period. Notably, this quiet distribution phase coincided with mid-cycle market conditions. However, since early 2025, the realized cap for old whales has flattened – signalling a pause in profit-taking. Their average cost basis of $39,400 puts them well in profit, suggesting they are likely waiting for higher prices before re-entering the market. In contrast, the average cost basis for newer whales is approximately $105,300 – a level that now serves as their psychological breakeven. As long as BTC remains above this threshold, these newer investors are unlikely to sell in large numbers. That said, a drop below this critical level could trigger risk-off behavior among new whales. Kripto Mevsimi suggests that such a move could escalate current conditions from moderate profit-taking to panic selling, potentially triggering a wave of leverage unwinds. Keep An Eye On Realized Price It’s worth noting that recent activity has been minimal across both BTC investor cohorts – old whales and new whales alike. As the CryptoQuant analyst puts it: Old whales are idle. New whales are exposed. Neither is pressing the market – yet. But once the range breaks, the reaction could be sharp. In short, Bitcoin holders should closely monitor realized price levels. If BTC maintains a price above $105,000, newer capital is likely to remain stable. However, a drop below that could weaken the floor and invite downside pressure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Plunge Below $115,000 Wipes Out $700M In Crypto Longs Conversely, a breakout toward a new all-time high – possibly around the $130,000 mark – could bring old whales back into play, expanding their realized cap. That said, a few warning signs point to potential short-term weakness. For instance, BTC deposits to Binance have been rising steadily after months of decline, indicating that selling pressure may increase in the near future. At press time, BTC trades at $113,500, down 0.3% over the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

On-chain data shows Bitcoin investors who purchased near the price top are choosing to hold even after the latest pullback. Bitcoin Cost Basis Distribution Shows Supply Still Firm Above $118,000 In a new post on X, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed the latest trend in the Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap of Bitcoin. This indicator tells us about how much of the asset’s supply was purchased at the various spot price levels. In on-chain analysis, supply cost basis is considered a key concept, as investor behavior is often more pronounced when the cryptocurrency is trading at or near its acquisition level. Related Reading: Bitcoin Neutral Sentiment Didn’t Last Long: Investors Already Greedy Again When the market mood is bullish, investors in profit may see price declines toward their cost basis as ‘dip‘ buying opportunities. This can make levels concentrated with supply under the spot price support boundaries. Similarly, holders in loss can look forward to retests of their acquisition mark so that they can exit the market with their money ‘back.’ This selling can provide resistance to the asset. Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap over the past month: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap formed a sort of “airgap” as a result of the cryptocurrency’s explosive run toward the new all-time high (ATH) last month. Gaps like these form whenever BTC runs by levels too fast for supply to change hands, leaving no dense cost basis centers in that range. The airgap that gets left behind corresponds to a “free for all” space in terms of investor behavior, as there are no major support or resistance levels built into it yet. From the chart, it’s visible that as Bitcoin consolidated earlier, supply gradually became concentrated at levels above $116,000, but below that mark, supply remained thin up to $109,000. With the latest plunge, the asset is finally exploring this airgap, and so far, supply is being filled in. This could be an indication that the investors are interested in buying the dip, which may help form a support cluster in the range. Another interesting trend that’s apparent in the graph is that a notable amount of supply still retains its cost basis between $118,000 and $120,000. While some panic selling has occurred from investors who purchased in this range, a lot of them appear to be choosing to hold strong instead. Related Reading: XRP MVRV Flashes Death Cross: More Decline Ahead? It now remains to be seen how the Bitcoin airgap would develop in the coming days and whether these top buyers would continue to stand firm. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $114,200, down 4% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin mining difficulty has hit the brakes in 2025. For the first time in the network’s history, difficulty is rising at a slow pace and is on track for its slowest annual difficulty growth rate ever recorded. Signals Of Consolidation In The Bitcoin Mining Landscape Bitcoin mining difficulty has risen by 0.5% since June 1st, signaling an extraordinary slowdown in network expansion. According to mining infrastructure firm Blockware’s post on X, the Year-to-Date mining difficulty is up only 16%, which is a stark contrast to prior post-halving years. “2025 is on pace to see the slowest growth in mining difficulty in BTC history,” Blockware added. Related Reading: Bitcoin Mining Power Nears New Record: 7-Day Hashrate Hits 942 EH/s The mining growth will continue to slow down due to the following reasons: The mining Hardware is reaching the limits of Moore’s law. This is approaching the physical and economic limits of chip miniaturization, and making the new generation of miners only marginally more efficient. The physical infrastructure and energy production are the bottlenecks for growth, which is about powering the scaling of mining and ordering machines. Lastly, the data center operators are diversifying into AI and high-performance computing (HPC). However, this is bullish for BTC miners as it means less competition for the 450 BTC that are mined daily. As BTC trends steadily toward six figures, miners are positioned to arbitrage energy and compute, while producing BTC at a substantial discount to its market value. Currently, a Bitmain S21 XP hosted at the Blockware mining site is producing 1 BTC for just $55,000 in electricity costs. This is a significant discount to the market price of BTC. The benefit of BTC mining is the ability to depreciate 100% of the hardware costs and create powerful tax offsets. When combined with Tax benefits and BTC accumulation, this is how generational wealth is created. The Shift Toward Cleaner Energy And Sustainable Mining SustainableBTC has also highlighted on X that in 2017, a Newsweek article warned that Bitcoin was on track to consume all of the world’s energy by 2020. Furthermore, in 2019, the academic paper reported that emissions from BTC mining alone would push global temperatures above 2°C. Related Reading: Bitcoin Mining Hits Jackpot: JPMorgan Unveils Record Profits in Q1 Analysis Since then, there has been a widespread belief that BTC mining is harmful to the environment. However, in reality, BTC mining has the potential to be a powerful tool in the clean energy transition and a force for climate justice. In the midst of this widespread view, SustainableBTC noted that awareness and advocacy alone are not enough to change deeply rooted perceptions about BTC mining and sustainability. To move the industry forward, there is a need for transparent, auditable data, market-based incentives that align with economic performance, and environmental responsibility. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is undergoing a sharp correction after losing the $115K support level, triggering a wave of uncertainty across the market. Following weeks of consolidation in a tight range, BTC has broken down, fueling debates among analysts about the asset’s short-term direction. Some experts warn that Bitcoin could face further declines as investors take profits and sentiment turns cautious. Others maintain a more optimistic view, suggesting that the correction is a healthy pause before BTC makes another attempt to reclaim its all-time highs. Related Reading: Bitcoin Investors Selling More Aggressively As Bull Cycle Matures: Risk Appetite Fades? Key data from CryptoQuant adds another layer to the analysis. Metrics indicate that Bitcoin is currently in an “overheated” state, with valuation indicators signaling excessive bullish momentum. This suggests that the current consolidation phase may extend further as the market works to reset. Until demand stabilizes and new liquidity flows in, Bitcoin could continue to trade in a volatile environment, with the $112K–$115K range acting as a critical battleground between bulls and bears. With the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and global macroeconomic factors still in play, Bitcoin’s next major move will likely depend on a combination of market sentiment, institutional demand, and the broader risk appetite of investors in the coming weeks. Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model Signals Overvaluation Top analyst Darkfost recently shared insights on X, highlighting the significance of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow reversion (S2F) chart as a reliable indicator to assess Bitcoin’s valuation cycles. According to Darkfost, when the S2F metric rises above a value of 3, it typically indicates that Bitcoin is entering an overheated phase, signaling a high probability of a market correction. Currently, the S2F value is approaching this critical threshold, prompting Darkfost to caution investors that it may be an opportune moment to lock in profits before a deeper correction unfolds. Darkfost’s analysis points to historical patterns where similar S2F readings have preceded substantial price declines. In September 2021, Bitcoin dropped from $63,500 to $30,800 after the S2F metric crossed into the overvaluation zone. Again, in November 2021, BTC crashed from $67,000 to $15,800 following a peak S2F signal. More recently, in March 2024, Bitcoin corrected sharply from $73,000 to $54,000 after entering overheated territory. Related Reading: Bitcoin Demand Holds Strong Despite Price Drop: Accumulation Trend Remains Intact This preset alert system, designed for long-term market participants, serves as a strategic tool to help investors navigate Bitcoin’s volatile cycles. While the current correction might seem abrupt, Darkfost emphasizes that such pullbacks are essential for the market to reset and build a sustainable foundation for future growth. Investors are urged to remain cautious and monitor the S2F chart closely as Bitcoin navigates this critical phase. BTC Struggles To Reclaim The $115K Level Bitcoin is attempting to recover after its recent decline, currently trading around $115,019 as shown in the 8-hour chart. The price has managed to bounce from the $112K support zone but faces strong resistance at the $115,724 level, which previously acted as a key support during the two-week consolidation range in July. The 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) are now positioned just above the current price, adding to the overhead resistance. The 200-day SMA around $110,677 continues to provide solid support, keeping the overall uptrend intact for now. However, BTC must reclaim the $115,724 level and consolidate above it to regain bullish momentum. Related Reading: Bitcoin Inflows To Binance Accelerate: Investor Behavior Shifts After Months Of Decline Volume has been relatively low during the recent bounce, suggesting a lack of strong buying conviction. If Bitcoin fails to break above the $115K resistance decisively, it risks falling back to test the $112K zone again. On the upside, a successful breakout above $115,724 could open the path to retest the $122,077 all-time high resistance. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

The debate around Bitcoin’s top for this cycle has been a major topic as market participants eye potential peaks later this year. Although some analysts have forecasted a blow-off top in October or November, Quinten Francois, a respected crypto market commentator, strongly disagrees. Drawing from historical data and market psychology, Francois believes that the current bull market is far from over and that expectations for a Q4 2025 top are “just not going to happen.” November Is Too Soon For A Bitcoin Peak Taking to the social media platform X, Bitcoin commentator Quinten argued that any expectations for a full market peak by November completely overlook how previous cycles have unfolded. He pointed out that in both 2017 and 2021, the altseason, the period when altcoins outperform Bitcoin, began in Q1 of those respective bull market years. Related Reading: Altcoin Season Loading As Bitcoin Dominance Crashes Toward 60% From that point, the retail-driven psychological cycle took roughly 9 to 12 months to fully play out. This time around, the analyst suggests that altseason hasn’t even started in earnest. The ETH/BTC ratio, often used as the criteria for altseason momentum, is only just beginning to reverse. Given this timing, Quinten noted that a cycle top occurring within the next two or three months is nearly impossible. The moment altseason begins marks the entry of broad retail participation, and from that point onward, it typically takes 9 to 12 months for euphoria and market excess to reach a crescendo.  If history is any guide, the current psychological cycle is still in its early stages because the retail cycle hasn’t properly kicked in yet. This would push a market peak into the second or third quarter of 2026 at the earliest. Altcoin Cycle Will Determine If Peak Is Possible The only condition that could allow for a major top this year, Quinten admitted, would be an absence of an altcoin cycle altogether. That scenario, or a catastrophic black swan event, could short-circuit the retail cycle and lead to an earlier-than-usual top. However, the possibility of this happening is very low, and this psychological cycle simply cannot play out much quicker than 9-12 months. Related Reading: Altcoin Season Index Spikes Above 30, But Bitcoin Dominance Remains High, What Next? As such, Bitcoin’s price action is most likely to play out like it has always done. “If things unfold as they historically have (we can only count on this), then it’s just not going to happen,” he said. Although the analyst did not give a price target for the expected Bitcoin top for this cycle, other technical analysts have pointed to targets between $140,000 and $200,000. In another post on the social media platform, Quinten noted that Bitcoin is currently playing out its biggest bullish setup in history. This outlook is based on a current retest of an ascending trendline of all-time highs, which Bitcoin broke above in July. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $114,460, having declined by about 3.7% in the past seven days. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

A thread posted late on 4 August 2025 by Weiss Crypto analyst Juan Villaverde has ignited debate about a rarely discussed harbinger of Bitcoin price cycles. In a thread on X, the quantitative researcher argued that an “overlooked asset class”—one he says almost no-one monitors in a crypto context—consistently pivots months before Bitcoin does, offering what he calls “a sneak peek at major turning points.” Villaverde’s proprietary back-testing suggests the lag is approximately six months, enough lead time, he claims, to anticipate the apex of the current bull market in late November. How Gold’s Trendlines Map The Bitcoin Price “Many are aware that Bitcoin tends to follow global liquidity—with a roughly twelve-week lag,” Weiss Crypto wrote, setting the stage for the reveal. “But Juan Villaverde has quietly tracked a different early indicator… one that can signal where BTC is headed six months in advance.” In a follow-up post he teased, “That little-known indicator? [ … ]. Turns out, its price action often leads Bitcoin by several months—providing a sneak peek at major turning points.” Related Reading: Top Analyst Says Bitcoin Is Trapped: ‘Nothing To Do Until October’ Villaverde’s thesis rests on a data series stretching back to the advent of modern crypto markets. He points to the trough of December 2018, which, in his reconstruction, was foreshadowed by a significant low in the mystery market some weeks earlier. “After analysing years of data, Juan spotted a consistent pattern,” Weiss Crypto stated, quoting the analyst to the effect that “major lows [there] tend to precede major lows in Bitcoin.” The same lead-lag cadence, Villaverde notes, flashed red in November 2021 when Bitcoin printed its all-time high even as the benchmark asset he tracks refused to break higher—an omen that presaged the 2022 bear market. The model is not without blemishes. Weiss Crypto acknowledged “one exception in recent years—during the Russia–Ukraine invasion—where the Bitcoin relationship temporarily inverted due to macro chaos.” Yet Villaverde maintains the anomaly reinforces rather than weakens his conviction: exogenous geopolitical shocks can distort correlations, but once the shock dissipates the historic rhythm reasserts itself. Related Reading: Bitcoin Neutral Sentiment Didn’t Last Long: Investors Already Greedy Again Where does that leave the market in mid-2025? “According to Juan’s analysis,” the firm wrote, “the indicator is pointing to a major high in Bitcoin around late November 2025. That aligns perfectly with his Crypto Timing Model.” Villaverde cautions that the signal is dynamic, not deterministic. If the benchmark asset he watches “rallies above its April high,” it would imply “Bitcoin could march higher into 2026.” Conversely, any decisive breakdown would “be an early warning that crypto’s bull market may be nearing its end after November.” Villaverde insists the relationship he has identified is robust because it focuses on magnitude rather than direction alone. “It’s not only the turns that matter,” he said in a direct message to this outlet, “but the amplitude of those turns.” By quantifying both, he argues, the signal captures investor psychology cycling from fear to greed and back again. At press time, BTC traded at $114,522. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Michael Saylor’s enterprise software company, Strategy (previously MicroStrategy), has made headlines once again with a substantial Bitcoin (BTC) acquisition, pushing its total holdings beyond 600,000 coins.  The company purchased an impressive $2.46 billion worth of Bitcoin over the past week, marking its third-largest purchase by dollar amount since it began acquiring the digital asset five years ago. Bitcoin Acquisition At Record Prices Between July 28 and August 3, Strategy added 21,021 Bitcoin to its holdings, bringing its total to 628,791 tokens. At current market prices, the firm’s portfolio is valued at over $71 billion.  Saylor has adeptly transformed his company from a traditional software provider into the leading corporate buyer of Bitcoin, utilizing innovative financial strategies to fuel these purchases. Related Reading: Top Analyst Says Bitcoin Is Trapped: ‘Nothing To Do Until October’ The latest acquisition was made at an average price of $117,526 per token, which is the second-highest price the company has ever paid, just shy of the $118,940 average from the previous month.  Strategy is the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, according to data from BitcoinTreasuries.net. BTC mining company MARA Holdings is second with 50,000 coins, which highlights Saylor’s firm’s purchasing power. Notably, this position has not only solidified Saylor’s influence in the crypto space but has also inspired other public companies to adopt similar treasury strategies aimed at accumulating and holding digital currencies. These include Trump’s social media company, boosted by a new regulatory regime and legislation in the US aimed at positioning the country as the crypto capital of the world, a mission that President Donald Trump has advocated since his election campaign last year. Saylor’s Strategy Pledges To Protect Shareholder Value To fund these massive purchases, Bitcoin bull Michael Saylor has employed a mix of common and preferred share sales alongside debt instruments. Recently, the company launched its latest preferred stock offering, dubbed “Stretch,” in late July.  In its second-quarter report, Strategy announced an unrealized gain of $14 billion, primarily driven by the recent rebound in Bitcoin prices and a new accounting requirement that necessitated the revaluation of its Bitcoin holdings. Saylor has also made a commitment to investors, stating that he will refrain from issuing new common shares at less than 2.5 times the company’s net asset value, except for covering debt interest or preferred dividends.  Related Reading: Analyst Warns XRP Investors Not To Let Fear Dictate Moves As Long As Price Holds This Level This pledge comes in light of concerns raised by critics like Jim Chanos, who have expressed apprehension about the premium that Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings place on its share price and the numerous securities offerings the company has executed. Since its initial foray into Bitcoin, Strategy’s stock, MSTR, has skyrocketed over 3,000%, significantly outperforming Bitcoin itself and major stock indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.  The company’s largest purchases occurred in November, totaling $5.4 billion and $4.6 billion, respectively, demonstrating Saylor’s aggressive strategy in the cryptocurrency market. However, on Monday, the firm did not disclose any further purchases, as it has commonly done over the past few months. Perhaps it is starting to reassess its direction with biweekly acquisitions. It remains to be seen what the firm’s next moves will be, as there have been no further official comments on the matter. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a steady price decline over the past week, falling by approximately 3.7% as trading activity shows signs of a possible sell-off or profit-taking phase. After peaking above $123,000 earlier last month, the leading cryptocurrency has been trading within the $113,000 to $114,000 range in the past day. At the time of writing, BTC is valued at $114,420, reflecting uncertainty in market momentum. Market analysts point to weakening liquidity and inconsistent institutional demand as key factors contributing to the price drop. A recent analysis shared by Arab Chain, a contributor to CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, highlights several on-chain dynamics that have limited Bitcoin’s ability to maintain price stability despite reduced available supply. Related Reading: Top Analyst Says Bitcoin Is Trapped: ‘Nothing To Do Until October’ Liquidity Constraints and Market Fragility According to Arab Chain’s analysis, a sharp collapse in the liquidity inventory ratio began in mid-July, falling to levels representing just over three months of available supply on major trading platforms. This metric tracks how much Bitcoin is accessible for sale relative to the pace of market activity. Normally, reduced supply would lead to upward price pressure. However, Arab Chain notes that insufficient new demand left the market vulnerable, resulting in the opposite effect. “When liquidity is thin and there is no consistent buying activity from large investors or ETFs, even small sell orders can lead to significant price drops,” Arab Chain explained. This behavior mirrors “thin market” conditions, where limited order book depth magnifies volatility and makes prices more susceptible to sudden downward moves. The analysis suggests that market fragility could persist unless fresh demand enters the market. Historically, periods of constrained liquidity combined with a lack of large-scale buyers have led to prolonged corrections in Bitcoin’s price trajectory. ETF Demand Volatility and Weak Accumulation Another factor influencing the recent decline has been the erratic demand for Bitcoin-linked exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Arab Chain observed sharp fluctuations in ETF inflows, with rapid surges followed by strong outflows, leaving no consistent institutional support to stabilize prices. This inconsistent participation from ETFs, which have become a major driver of Bitcoin demand since their approval, contributed to weaker price resilience during sell-offs. Additionally, on-chain data showed that “smart portfolios,” or high-value addresses typically associated with strategic accumulation, exhibited only modest buying activity during the recent downturn. Related Reading: Bitcoin Investors Selling More Aggressively As Bull Cycle Matures: Risk Appetite Fades? Although accumulation signals long-term confidence, its slow and limited pace failed to counterbalance selling pressure in real time. This lack of immediate demand further weakened market support. Additionally, while investors closely monitor liquidity conditions, ETF flows, and long-term holder activity for signs of a potential rebound. Analysts suggest that sustained institutional buying or an uptick in accumulation from large addresses could help restore stability. Until then, Bitcoin may remain in a vulnerable position, with its price movement largely dependent on shifts in demand and available liquidity. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Data shows the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has rebounded from the neutral zone, a sign that market indecisiveness was short-lived. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Is Back In Greed Region The “Fear & Greed Index” refers to an indicator created by Alternative that keeps track of the net sentiment present among the traders in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency markets. Related Reading: XRP MVRV Flashes Death Cross: More Decline Ahead? The metric uses data of these five factors to determine the investor mentality: trading volume, volatility, market cap dominance, social media sentiment, and Google Trends. To represent the sentiment, it uses a numerical scale running from zero to hundred. All values above 54 correspond to greed among the investors, while those under 46 to fear in the market. The region between the two cutoffs corresponds to a net neutral trader sentiment. Besides these three main zones, there are also two ‘extreme’ territories called the extreme greed and extreme fear. The former occurs above 75 and the latter below 25. Historically, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have tended to move in the direction that goes contrary to the expectations of the majority. The likelihood of such a contrary moving occurring has also only gone up the more sure the investors have become of the asset’s direction. As such, when the Fear & Greed Index is in the extreme zones, tops and bottoms can be probable to occur. Investors using a trading technique called contrarian investing exploit this fact. Warren Buffet’s famous quote encapsulates the idea: “be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Now, here is how the current cryptocurrency market sentiment looks, according to the Fear & Greed Index: As is visible above, the Fear & Greed Index has a value of 64, which suggests that the investors as a whole share a sentiment of greed. The picture was different just yesterday, when the market held a neutral mentality. The weekend low of 53 in the metric was likely a result of the bearish action in Bitcoin that took its price to $112,000. Similarly, the return of greed may be caused by the slight recovery in the asset. The Fear & Greed Index spent July in and around the extreme greed zone, ending the month at a value of 72. Given this trend, the plunge this month may be an effect of the streak of optimism among the investors. Related Reading: Bitcoin Plunge Below $115,000 Wipes Out $700M In Crypto Longs With sentiment now observing a reset, it remains to be seen how Bitcoin will develop from here on out and whether market sentiment would get overheated once more. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $114,900, down around 2.5% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, alternative.me, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin experienced a pullback over the weekend, briefly dipping to $112,296 on Saturday before stabilizing around $114,420 at the time of writing. The asset has seen a nearly 4% decline in the past week, marking one of the more notable short-term corrections in recent weeks. Market analysts suggest that, while short-term volatility persists, Bitcoin’s broader outlook remains influenced by whale activity and long-term holder behavior. Recent on-chain data provided by CryptoQuant highlights significant movement among high-volume Bitcoin traders. Crazzyblockk, a contributor to CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, analyzed transactions of 1,000 BTC or more and identified a pattern in where large-scale investors, often referred to as whales, prefer to trade. The data shows Binance is the dominant exchange for these transactions, processing both the highest total volume and the largest number of individual whale-level trades across the market. Related Reading: Top Analyst Says Bitcoin Is Trapped: ‘Nothing To Do Until October’ Binance Emerges as Primary Venue for Whale Transactions According to Crazzyblockk’s analysis, Binance leads other exchanges by a substantial margin when it comes to whale activity. Over 30 million BTC have moved through Binance in both inflows and outflows, far exceeding figures recorded on competing platforms such as HTX Global and Kraken. While volume alone highlights the scale of transactions, Binance’s leadership becomes even clearer when measuring transaction count. Data indicates more than 56 million whale transactions have taken place on Binance, compared to roughly 16 million on HTX, making it the most active platform for high-frequency, large-scale trades. This dominance suggests Binance provides unmatched liquidity for big players in the market. As Crazzyblockk noted, “The concentration of whale activity on Binance provides it with unparalleled liquidity. For traders, this means tighter spreads and a greater ability to execute large orders with minimal price impact.” The findings indicate that monitoring Binance’s order book can offer valuable insights into institutional sentiment and potential market movements. Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Sustain Bullish Trend Despite Correction While whale activity dominates short-term price movements, broader market sentiment remains supported by long-term holders (LTH). Another CryptoQuant analyst, Abrahamchart, pointed out that long-term investors continue to hold significant unrealized profits, with the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio staying above 0.5. This indicates that long-term holders are not rushing to sell, helping sustain price support near the $104,000 range. Short-term holders (STH), on the other hand, appear to be taking profits during rallies, contributing to temporary selling pressure and minor corrections such as the latest dip below $113,000. Related Reading: Spot Bitcoin ETFs Bleed Over $800 Million: Second‑Largest Exit Ever – Details Abrahamchart noted that while the short-term market may experience fluctuations, the underlying trend remains intact due to the conviction of long-term participants. Featured iamegc created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin is trading just above the $112,000 level after breaking down from a consolidation range that held for over two weeks. The sharp decline sparked concerns among investors, particularly among Short-Term Holders (STH), who now face the difficult choice of realizing losses or holding underwater positions. However, top analyst Darkfost shared key insights suggesting that Bitcoin’s underlying demand remains robust, despite the price volatility. Related Reading: Bitcoin Inflows To Binance Accelerate: Investor Behavior Shifts After Months Of Decline According to Darkfost, the Apparent Demand metric—comparing new BTC issuance to over one-year inactive supply—indicates that the market is still absorbing supply effectively. The ratio has stayed in positive territory, signaling that demand continues to outpace new issuance. Over the past 30 days, approximately 160,000 BTC have been accumulated, highlighting strong buying behavior even as prices corrected. While sentiment among STH has weakened due to the recent drawdown, long-term accumulation trends suggest the broader market structure remains healthy. Investors with longer time horizons are continuing to add to their positions, reflecting confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. As BTC stabilizes around $112K, market participants are closely watching for a potential reversal or a deeper correction, with demand-side indicators offering a more optimistic outlook for the weeks ahead. Demand from Accumulator Addresses and OTC Desks Signals Strong Conviction Darkfost also highlighted critical insights regarding Demand from Accumulator Addresses, a metric that tracks wallets that have only acquired Bitcoin without any history of selling. This indicator provides a clear view into both the demand dynamics and the holding conviction of long-term investors. Over the past month, the average BTC accumulated by these addresses has grown by approximately 50,000 BTC, showcasing a consistent and determined buying trend, despite recent price corrections. Such behavior underscores the confidence of long-term holders who are taking advantage of market dips to strengthen their positions. On a broader horizon, BTC held on OTC Desks reflects a more strategic and long-term demand pattern. Unlike exchange-based activity, OTC transactions are less visible in immediate price action but offer a window into the intentions of institutional players. Since September 2021, the supply of BTC on OTC desks has dropped sharply, from around 550,000 BTC to just 145,000 BTC today. This significant decline indicates that large-scale buyers are consistently removing Bitcoin from OTC circulation, reducing the available supply for future institutional entrants. Whether examining short-term accumulation or long-term OTC trends, the overall demand-side picture remains notably positive. Despite recent volatility and a wave of short-term profit-taking, there are no major signs of structural weakness from demand-side indicators. Related Reading: Exchanges Receive 21,400 Bitcoin At A Loss From Short-Term Holders – Retail Capitulation? Bitcoin Faces Key Resistance After Rebounding from Local Lows Bitcoin is currently trading at $114,476, showing signs of stabilization after a sharp drop to $111,971 earlier this week. The chart shows BTC still hovering below the crucial $115,724 resistance, which aligns with the lower boundary of the previous consolidation range. The 50-day SMA sits at $100,228, providing a solid technical base, while the 100-day SMA at $95,433 remains a key medium-term support zone. The 200-day SMA is rising steadily at $77,282, confirming the long-term bullish trend. Despite the recent volatility, Bitcoin’s price structure still suggests a bullish outlook as long as BTC maintains higher lows above the $110K level. However, the $122,077 resistance remains a critical barrier. Breaking above this level would signal a strong bullish continuation towards new highs. Related Reading: Over 1-M Ethereum Withdrawn From Exchanges In 2 Weeks: Supply Shock Incoming? Volume activity has been decreasing during this retracement, which is a positive sign, indicating that selling pressure is not overwhelming. If BTC can reclaim the $115,724 zone in the coming sessions, it would increase the probability of another breakout attempt towards $122K. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin is currently trading at critical levels after a sharp decline to the $112,000 zone, sparking panic among investors who fear this could mark the beginning of a broader bear market. After weeks of tight consolidation, the sudden drop has triggered concerns of a deeper correction, especially as short-term holders (STH) are forced to either realize losses or hold underwater positions. Related Reading: Bitcoin Inflows To Binance Accelerate: Investor Behavior Shifts After Months Of Decline However, not all analysts are sounding the alarm. Top analyst Axel Adler argues that while the market is experiencing typical late-stage bull cycle behavior, the broader uptrend remains intact. Adler points out that as bull markets mature, investor risk appetite naturally decreases, leading to increased profit-taking and short-term selling pressure. This creates temporary headwinds but doesn’t necessarily signal a trend reversal. Long-term holders (LTH) remain in solid profit territory, showing no signs of capitulation. Their conviction continues to provide foundational support for Bitcoin’s price structure. This is a normal phase in bull markets, where short-term volatility shakes out weaker hands before continuation. Bitcoin Harmonic Mean of NUPL and MVRV Signals Cycle Maturity According to Adler, the Bitcoin Harmonic Mean of NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) and MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) reveals a clear shift in investor behavior as the bull cycle matures. Adler’s data shows that in March and December 2024, this combined metric peaked above 1.9, marking periods of strong market conviction where investors continued holding despite elevated profit margins. However, the current readings show a noticeable decline, with the harmonic mean forming a lower peak, signaling that holders are becoming more inclined to realize profits rather than hold through new price surges. Adler points out that each rally now brings a smaller marginal premium to holders’ cost basis, which translates into increasing selling pressure as the market struggles to sustain higher valuations. This does not mean the bull market is over, but it does indicate that investor risk appetite is diminishing. Profit-taking activity is gradually outweighing the influx of new demand, which could cap future rallies. Nevertheless, Adler expects two more significant rallies in this cycle, driven by macro catalysts such as the anticipated two Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. These events could reignite market momentum and push Bitcoin to new highs. However, Adler warns that after these final pushes, selling pressure from long-term holders may outweigh fresh demand, leading the market into a broader correction phase. Related Reading: Exchanges Receive 21,400 Bitcoin At A Loss From Short-Term Holders – Retail Capitulation? Price Analysis: Testing Resistance After Breakdown Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $114,690, attempting to recover after a sharp breakdown below the $115,724 support, now acting as resistance. The daily chart shows BTC forming a modest rebound after reaching a local low of $112,200, with price action consolidating around the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $112,218. This moving average provided strong support during the recent correction, preventing a deeper decline towards the $110K zone. The next critical level to watch is the $115,724 resistance. A daily close above this level would signal a potential reclaim of the previous range, increasing the probability of a retest of the $122,077 local high. However, if BTC fails to break this level convincingly, it could indicate that bears are still in control, leading to a possible retest of the 50-day SMA support. Related Reading: Over 1-M Ethereum Withdrawn From Exchanges In 2 Weeks: Supply Shock Incoming? Volume remains subdued compared to previous rallies, suggesting a lack of strong buying momentum. The 100-day SMA at $107,926 and the 200-day SMA at $99,345 remain key dynamic support levels should further downside pressure emerge. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

On-chain analytics platform Arkham Intelligence recently uncovered the biggest crypto hack ever. The hack involved stolen Bitcoin worth $3.5 billion at the time, now worth $14 billion, which is larger than the $1.5 billion Bybit hack this year.  Arkham Intelligence Unveils $14 Billion Hack on Chinese Mining Pool LuBian In an X post, Arkham revealed that it had uncovered a $3.5 billion Bitcoin heist, the largest ever. This hack was on LuBian, which was a Chinese mining pool with facilities in China and Iran. The analytics platform stated that 127,426 BTC appears to have been stolen from LuBian in December 2020. These coins, which were worth $3.5 billion at the time, are now valued at $14.5 billion based on the current Bitcoin price.  Related Reading: From Riches To Chains: Crypto King Arrested For Torturing Bitcoin Investor In Horror Scheme Furthermore, the platform noted that neither LuBian nor the hacker has publicly acknowledged the hack since it took place in 2020. At the time, the Chinese firm was one of the world’s largest mining pools, controlling almost 6% of the Bitcoin network’s total hash rate as of May 2020. Arkham revealed that the mining pool appears to have been first hacked on December 28, 2020, for over 90% of its BTC.  The hacker subsequently stole around $6 million worth of BTC and USDT on December 29 from a LuBian address that was active on the Bitcoin Omni layer. On December 31, LuBian then rotated its remaining funds to recovery wallets. This hack trumps the Bybit hack of $1.5 billion, which occurred on February 21 earlier this year.  Unlike the LuBian hack, which involved Bitcoin, hackers stole over 400,000 ETH from Bybit’s cold wallets through social engineering. As a result, the hackers were able to authorize these transfers despite the wallets being multisig.   Attempts To Recover The Stolen Bitcoin Arkham also revealed that LuBian had made attempts to recover the stolen Bitcoin by contacting the hacker. The Chinese mining pool had sent OP_RETURN messages, in which it asked the hacker to return their funds. The analytics platform stated that the firm spent 1.4 BTC across 1516 different transactions to send these messages.  Related Reading: Coinbase’s $400 Million Breach: What Really Happened And How Did Customers Get Exposed? Arkham claimed that the messages suggest that this was not a spoof from another hacker who had brute-forced the private keys. This appears to have been how LuBian was hacked in the first place, as the mining pool is said to have been using an algorithm to generate private keys that were susceptible to brute-force attacks.  Arkham revealed that LuBian still holds 11,886 BTC, currently worth around $1.35 billion. Meanwhile, the hacker still holds the stolen Bitcoin, which they are known to have last consolidated in another wallet in July 2024. Thanks to Bitcoin’s surge over the years, the LuBian hacker is now the 13th largest BTC holder based on Arkham data, ahead of the Mt. Gox hacker. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin may be stuck in limbo until October, according to crypto analyst Josh Olszewicz, who delivered a sobering assessment of the current market setup during his August 3 video analysis. The veteran trader described Bitcoin’s technicals and seasonal context as fundamentally uninviting, cautioning that “there’s nothing to do” until a more compelling risk-reward profile emerges—likely not before Q4. Bitcoin Bulls On Pause Olszewicz began by referencing last week’s Bollinger Band squeeze, a technical pattern that often precedes significant volatility. The squeeze resolved to the downside following a combination of weak US jobs data, negative ETF flows, and escalating geopolitical tensions—including reports of US nuclear submarine movements near Russia. “Markets certainly didn’t like that,” he remarked. The ETF flow data was central to his outlook. While Ethereum recently saw a resurgence in ETF inflows—contributing to one of its strongest Julys ever—Bitcoin’s flows flipped negative. “Flows, if anything, are what can save us in these two months of doldrums,” he said, referring to August and September. Yet, the current trajectory shows little promise of reversal. “The decision tree got a lot wider after breaking down,” he explained. “Because in the next two months, it’s generally junk. That’s just what it is.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Inflows To Binance Accelerate: Investor Behavior Shifts After Months Of Decline Olszewicz underscored the seasonal softness of Q3 for both equities and crypto, particularly emphasizing that historically, August and September are low-activity months. “Wake me up when September ends,” he quipped, reinforcing that traders should expect little from the market until October—a month historically associated with strong performance. “You do not want to miss October, even if October is negative 80%. This is about probabilities.” From a technical perspective, Olszewicz noted that Bitcoin remains in a vulnerable zone after stalling at the yearly pivot around $122,000. “Despite this great-looking chart pattern, we just stopped dead cold at $122,000,” he said. “If we break $122,000, the next level is $150,000—that’s psychological, it’s the measured move, and it’s the yearly pivot.” However, a more immediate concern lies in the potential for a bearish TK cross on the Ichimoku Cloud, which would trigger a sell signal in his system. “It’s a Pavlovian response. Bearish TK cross, you close your longs,” he said bluntly. “If we revisit 100 at this point, you’re going to get a lot of people talking about end-of-cycle stuff.” Related Reading: When Will The Bitcoin Correction End? The Support Level That Holds The Key The Commitment of Traders (COT) data from CME further amplifies the caution. “Commercials have dropped off a cliff,” Olszewicz warned. “Not something you want to see if you’re bullish.” The data suggests a sharp reduction in institutional positioning on the long side, adding another layer of headwind for the BTC price. Still, not all is lost. Olszewicz pointed to historical precedents, such as the difficult August and September of 2023 when Bitcoin was battered by Mt. Gox distributions and German government sell-offs. Despite the noise, Bitcoin rallied in October following the approval of spot ETFs and held above the cloud for an extended period. “It can look like the end for many, many reasons, and we can still make it,” he stressed. For traders looking to re-enter the market, he identified the $117K–$120K range as a potential re-entry zone if BTC can reclaim that area within the next two weeks. “It’s up to the bulls to hold this just flat for two weeks,” he said. “It shouldn’t be that hard to do if there are buyers in this market.” But until then, he remains on the sidelines: “There’s just nothing to do. It’s in no man’s land at the moment.” With Bitcoin in a technical holding pattern, negative flows, weak seasonality, and risk-off signals from legacy markets, Olszewicz made it clear that forcing trades in this environment could prove costly. His advice? Stay patient, stay liquid, and watch October. At press time, BTC traded at $114,517. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

After crashing below the $115,000 territory over the weekend, Bitcoin has reached an important level that could determine where the crypto market is headed next. Eventually, it comes down to the support levels and how much buying is going on to actually counter the effects of massive sell-offs that continue to drive down the price. However, if bulls are able to hold, then it could suggest there is enough momentum behind the cryptocurrency to push for new highs. Why Bitcoin Must Hold $100,000 In an analysis, crypto and market analyst MasterAnanda has pointed to the Bitcoin price already solidifying support that could help end the downtrend. Pointing to the current market decline, the analyst explains that the price is actually only down 8% after hitting its $123,000 all-time high back on July 14. This retrace is nothing out of the ordinary, which MasterAnanda refers to as “part of the normal workings of the market.” Related Reading: Satoshimeter Shows Where Bitcoin Price Is In This Cycle The current Bitcoin price fluctuations have not raised any alarms, as corrections are expected and are needed for the price to continue to rally. As the analyst explains, such fluctuations usually see the cryptocurrency reach new higher highs over the longer timeframe. Already, there is a lot of support for the Bitcoin price above the $110,000 level. This shows that while bears are pushing down hard, buying is still soaking up the dumped supply in the market. The analyst points to this support level as important, but highlights an even more important and stronger support level lying just above $100,000. This $100,000 level has remained a psychological level since it was first hit back in December 2024, becoming the level to hold if the market were to continue its uptrend. The crypto analyst explains that as long as the Bitcoin price remains above $100,000, then the bulls will continue to be in control. Related Reading: Market Cap Not A Hindrance To XRP Price Reaching $1,000, Expert Explains Why “After a few weeks, or several months, exactly as it happened last time, Bitcoin will go up. So you can expect retraces and corrections, but this is only short-term long-term we grow,” Master Ananda stated. However, there is still the possibility that the price does fall below the $100,000 level. In this case, it would mean an invalidation of the bullish thesis, and the analyst revealed that the short and mid-term analysis would need to be revisited and updated if this happens. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

The price of Bitcoin started the weekend—and the new month—in the worst possible way after falling below the $115,000 mark on Friday, August 1. This price decline seems to be worsening, as the premier cryptocurrency now sits beneath the $113,000 level following United States President Donald Trump’s recent nuclear threat. This recent movement has sparked market-wide conversations about the possibility of Bitcoin already reaching the price top in the current cycle. However, the consensus seems to be that the price of BTC still has the potential to embark on at least another leg up before finally reaching its cycle peak. BTC Could Revisit Former Highs In Near Term: Analyst In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, on-chain analyst Amr Taha built a bullish case for the price of Bitcoin following recent shifts in the Bitcoin market and the broader macro dynamics. In the BTC market context, the crypto pundit highlighted the changes in the coin’s spot volume on Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume. Related Reading: No Gold? No Problem: Why XRP Stands Strong On Its Own—Analyst Data from CryptoQuant shows that Binance registered over $7.6 billion daily BTC spot volume, marking one of the most significant increases in recent weeks. However, this notable spike in trading activity coincided with a dip in Bitcoin’s price from above $118,000 to around $113,000, signaling increased volatility and trader repositioning. Taha noted that, from a historical perspective, spot volume spikes of this magnitude—like the $7 billion surge seen on June 22—have often been correlated with local bottoms or major price reversals. Hence, the latest jump in the Bitcoin spot volume could represent renewed investor demand and be ultimately bullish for the market leader. In the macroeconomic context, Taha highlighted that the US Federal Reserve’s net liquidity also witnessed a significant increase on Friday, jumping from $6 trillion to $6.17 trillion. For more context, net liquidity is typically considered a significant macro driver for risk assets like Bitcoin. As such, a net liquidity spike implies more fiat money is circulating in the financial system, which can flow into equities, cryptocurrencies, and other risk-on assets. Hence, increases in the Fed’s net liquidity have historically coincided with bullish shifts across markets, as seen during late 2023 and early 2024. Ultimately, Taha concluded that the combination of the rise in Bitcoin spot volume on Binance and the Fed’s net liquidity could set the stage for bullish continuation for the flagship cryptocurrency. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $112,600, reflecting an over 1% decline in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Exchanges Receive 21,400 Bitcoin At A Loss From Short-Term Holders – Retail Capitulation? Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

After weeks of consolidation within a tight range, Bitcoin has broken down below the crucial $115K level, reaching a local low around $112,200. This correction has sparked a divide among analysts and investors, with some viewing it as a healthy retracement that could set the stage for a continuation of the broader uptrend. Others, however, warn that this move might signal the beginning of a more extended bearish phase if key support levels fail to hold. Related Reading: Ethereum New Addresses Surge To Nearly 257K In A Day, Matching 2017 And 2021 Bull Markets Adding to the market’s uncertainty, top analyst Darkfost highlighted a significant shift in exchange activity. Data reveals that Bitcoin inflows to Binance have been steadily rising since early July, reversing a prolonged downtrend that had been in place since March. Given Binance’s position as the largest global crypto exchange by volume, this uptick in inflows is a crucial indicator of shifting investor behavior. Whether this trend signals an upcoming wave of selling or simply reflects portfolio rebalancing remains to be seen. The coming days will be pivotal as Bitcoin tests its lower demand zones and market sentiment reacts to this new data. Binance Bitcoin Inflows Signal Shift in Market Mood Darkfost shared critical data showing that Bitcoin inflows to Binance have steadily increased, rising from approximately 5,300 BTC daily in early July to 7,000 BTC today. While this uptick is not abrupt, it marks a significant reversal of a prolonged downtrend that had persisted since March. This change suggests that investor behavior is shifting, potentially signaling adjustments in market strategies as traders and institutions respond to evolving market dynamics. Binance, as the largest cryptocurrency exchange globally by trading volume, serves as a critical barometer for overall market sentiment. With over 250 million users and billions of dollars in daily transactions, fluctuations in Bitcoin inflows on this platform often mirror broader structural moves within the crypto market. Historically, rising inflows have been associated with increased trading activity, whether due to profit-taking, portfolio rebalancing, or anticipation of market volatility. Some analysts interpret this emerging trend of accelerating inflows as an early sign of preparation for heightened market volatility or impending macroeconomic shifts. It could indicate that traders are positioning funds on exchanges to either capitalize on price swings or hedge against potential downside risks. While the magnitude of inflows isn’t alarmingly high yet, the consistency of this rise demands attention. The market is watching closely to see whether this signals a temporary adjustment or the start of a broader trend. With Bitcoin’s price currently testing lower support zones after breaking below $115K, the behavior of these inflows will be pivotal in determining short-term price action. Related Reading: Exchanges Receive 21,400 Bitcoin At A Loss From Short-Term Holders – Retail Capitulation? Key Support At Risk Amid Increased Selling Pressure Bitcoin is trading at $112,477 after breaking down from its two-week consolidation range. The price lost the crucial $115,724 support, which now flips into immediate resistance. This breakdown marks a significant shift in momentum, with BTC testing the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at $114,944, which failed to hold. The next key support zone lies near the 200-day SMA at $110,348, a level that could become pivotal for bulls attempting to regain control. Volume has surged during this decline, indicating strong selling pressure as BTC approaches the $112,000 level. If the price fails to hold above this zone, a further drop towards the psychological $110K level seems likely, with potential for a deeper correction targeting previous accumulation ranges from early July. Related Reading: Ethereum Taker Sell Volume Hits $335M In Just 2 Minutes: Panic Or Profit-Taking? Despite the bearish short-term outlook, bulls still have a chance to reclaim momentum if they can swiftly push BTC back above $115,724 and establish a consolidation above the 50-day SMA at $117,631. Until then, market sentiment remains cautious as investors watch for signs of demand absorption or further liquidation-driven declines. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin has broken below the critical $115K support level, reaching a new local low of approximately $112,700. After spending over two weeks consolidating in a tight range, BTC has now exited this phase with bearish momentum, raising concerns across the market. Traders and analysts are closely watching to see if Bitcoin can find strong demand around current levels to stabilize the price and prevent a deeper correction. Related Reading: Ethereum Taker Sell Volume Hits $335M In Just 2 Minutes: Panic Or Profit-Taking? Key data from CryptoQuant reveals that Short-Term Holders (STHs) are selling their Bitcoin at a loss, a typical pattern observed during retail capitulation events. Over the past 24 hours, a significant volume of BTC has been sent to exchanges at negative profit margins, signaling that weaker hands are being shaken out of the market. This selling pressure often marks the final stages of a correction phase, where panic-driven exits by STHs create potential accumulation opportunities for long-term investors. The next few sessions will be crucial, as Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $115K level to regain bullish structure. Otherwise, bears may attempt to drive prices lower, targeting the $110K zone. The market now looks for institutional demand or fresh capital inflows to absorb the ongoing retail-driven sell-off and stabilize the price. Short-Term Holders Sell Bitcoin At A Loss According to top analyst Maartunn, over the past 24 hours, 21,400 BTC were sent to exchanges at a loss by Short-Term Holders (STHs). This behavior is typical during Bitcoin drawdowns, where retail investors, driven by fear and emotional reactions to price swings, tend to sell their holdings at a loss. These capitulation events often amplify volatility, as panic selling creates sharp, short-term supply spikes on exchanges. However, despite this surge in loss-driven selling, on-chain data reveals a contrasting narrative among institutional players. The supply of Bitcoin in Over-The-Counter (OTC) desks continues to shrink, suggesting that large investors are actively buying during this correction. This divergence between retail capitulation and institutional accumulation points to a healthy market reset, where weaker hands exit while stronger hands build positions. Bitcoin’s momentum is now shifting from bullish caution to bearish fear. The recent breakdown below $115K raises the probability of further downside, with analysts eyeing the $112K level as a key support area. This level holds historical significance as the previous all-time high (ATH) set in May. If BTC finds strong demand at this zone, it could establish a solid foundation for the next bullish leg. Related Reading: Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Index Reaches Bearish Levels: Futures Traders Show Caution BTC Price Analysis: Breakdown Below Key Support Levels Bitcoin (BTC) has broken down from its multi-week consolidation range, currently trading at $113,737 after losing the critical $115,724 support level. The chart shows a clear rejection at the $122,077 resistance zone, where multiple attempts to break higher failed over the past two weeks. This rejection led to an increase in bearish momentum, pushing the price below the 50 and 100-period SMAs, which are now acting as resistance at $117,853 and $114,838, respectively. BTC is now hovering just above the 200-period SMA at $110,308, which could act as a last line of defense for bulls. If this level holds, a potential bounce back to retest the $115K region might occur. However, if the price fails to find strong demand soon, the next downside target sits around $112K, which aligns with the previous all-time high from May. Related Reading: Bitcoin New Investor Dominance Rises – No Signs of Mass Profit-Taking Yet Volume spikes accompanying this breakdown indicate significant selling pressure, likely driven by short-term holders capitulating at a loss. Despite the bearish technical structure in the short term, broader market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, as institutional accumulation continues in the background. The coming sessions will be critical to determine whether BTC can reclaim $115K or if further downside toward $110K becomes inevitable. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) is facing renewed downward pressure as it struggles to maintain levels above $115,000. At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency is trading around $115,745, down approximately 2.2% in the past 24 hours and nearly 6% below its July all-time high of $123,000. The latest market movement has raised questions about short-term price stability, particularly amid growing concerns over weak structural support in the current trading zone. Recent data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant suggests that while long-term holders remain largely profitable, short-term sentiment has shifted. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Next Big Move? Cooling Futures Market Hints at Possible Breakout Bitcoin UTXO Data Points to Changing Investor Behavior Activity among Bitcoin Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXOs), a metric that tracks coins being spent either in profit or at a loss, indicates that many investors are beginning to react to smaller price drops, potentially signaling increased market uncertainty. In a recent analysis on CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, contributor Darkfost shared insights on how UTXO activity can reflect broader market sentiment. “This chart, based on UTXOs from block data, highlights the number of UTXOs spent either in profit or in loss,” the analyst wrote, noting that this approach focuses on transaction count rather than value, helping filter out price-based noise. Historically, Bitcoin has seen a dominance of UTXOs spent in profit, with patient holders benefiting from long-term appreciation. Between July 11 and 13, the ratio of profitable UTXOs compared to those spent at a loss surged above 10,000, meaning for every loss-making spend, there were over ten thousand profitable ones. However, this ratio has since declined to around 500, suggesting that some investors are now closing positions at a loss even with minor price retracements. This change, according to Darkfost, may indicate short-term selling pressure despite the overall profitable status of most holders. Weak Support Structure Adds to Downside Risk Another CryptoQuant analyst, Maartunn, highlighted structural weaknesses in Bitcoin’s recent price surge. On July 10, BTC rapidly climbed from $112,000 to $115,800, but this upward move left little on-chain support in the price range. Bitcoin Teleported from $112 to $115.8K – But There’s Thin Air Below “From a technical point of view, there’s no past resistance or consolidation that could now act as support. If this final support area breaks, price could move down quickly.” – By @JA_Maartun pic.twitter.com/a3hQoANfDc — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) August 1, 2025 “The move happened so quickly that no support levels were formed,” the analyst explained. “If momentum drops or sellers step in, the price could fall just as fast as it rose.” Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Calm Before the Storm? Binance Data Points to Big Shift Ahead With Bitcoin now hovering just above its last known on-chain support zone, analysts caution that a failure to hold this level could accelerate the decline. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Data shows the cryptocurrency derivatives market has seen more than $700 million in long liquidations as Bitcoin and altcoins have plummeted. Bitcoin Price Just Made A Low Under $115,000 Bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency market has witnessed a wave of bearish momentum during the past day as prices across the coins have declined. BTC went into the low $114,000 levels earlier in the day, but the coin has since bounced back above $115,000. Related Reading: Altcoin Season Here? 6 Key Metrics Show Market Shift The below chart shows how the asset’s recent performance has looked. Last week, BTC also dropped toward the $115,000 mark, but back then, it was able to quickly bounce back to resume sideways movement around $118,000. As such, it only remains to be seen whether the current deviation is a temporary one as well or if it’s the start of a real break away from the consolidation range. Most of the altcoins have taken a worse hit than the number one cryptocurrency during the past day, with some like Solana (SOL) and Hyperliquid (HYPE) exceeding losses of 5%. Crypto Derivatives Market Has Racked Up Large Liquidations A consequence of the market-wide volatility has been that liquidations have piled up over at the derivatives side of the cryptocurrency sector, according to data from CoinGlass. Below is a table that shows the numbers related to the latest market liquidations. As is visible above, a total of $804 million in cryptocurrency contracts have found liquidation during the past day. Out of these, $741 million of the contracts, equivalent to 92% of the total, were longs. Ethereum (ETH) led the derivatives flush with $250 million in liquidations, Bitcoin followed at $200 million. ETH topping the sector in this metric over BTC is likely a combination of two factors: its price has seen a steeper decline in the last 24 hours and speculative interest around it has been elevated due to the earlier breakout. Signs were already there that a volatile liquidation event may be coming. As this chart shared by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn on Wednesday shows, the Bitcoin Aggregated Open Interest was sharply climbing. The “Aggregated Open Interest” here naturally refers to an indicator that keeps track of the total amount of derivatives positions related to BTC that are open on all centralized exchanges. Related Reading: PENGU Down 11%, But These TA Signals Could Point To Rebound The speculators haven’t been dissuaded by the latest liquidations, either, as Maartunn has today pointed out a sharp jump in the Bitcoin Open Interest on cryptocurrency exchange ByBit. Featured image from Dall-E, CoinGlass.com, charts from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) is navigating a period of heightened uncertainty as its price struggles to regain upward momentum following recent declines. Over the past 24 hours, the world’s largest cryptocurrency recorded a dip to $114,326 before slightly recovering above the $115,000 mark. Despite this rebound, the asset remains under pressure, with recent market movements highlighting potential shifts in trader sentiment and long-term holder behavior. Data shared by market analysts indicates that derivatives activity is playing a significant role in current price fluctuations. Insights from the analytics platform CryptoQuant suggest that sudden changes in leveraged positions and aggressive selling pressure on major exchanges are contributing to the ongoing volatility. At the same time, on-chain data shows an increase in activity from long-term Bitcoin holders, suggesting a structural change in the market that may influence future price dynamics. Related Reading: Bitcoin New Investor Dominance Rises – No Signs of Mass Profit-Taking Yet Leveraged Positions Under Pressure on Major Exchanges According to a recent analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha, Bitcoin’s decline below $115,000 coincided with a notable reduction in open interest on Binance, dropping from $14 billion to under $13.5 billion in a short span. This 4% decline in open interest within a single day is often linked to liquidation events, where leveraged positions are closed automatically due to margin calls. Taha explained that many traders appear to have exited long positions as the price fell, potentially triggering a cascade of sell orders and amplifying market pressure. Net Taker Volume on Binance also turned sharply negative, nearing -$160 million, suggesting an increase in aggressive selling activity. This trend reflects fear-driven reactions among market participants, particularly retail traders, who may have chosen to close or reverse positions amid expectations of further price declines. Despite this wave of selling, Taha noted the possibility of a short-term rebound. A reduction in leveraged long positions combined with an increase in short exposure could create conditions for a market rebalancing or a short squeeze if selling pressure eases in the coming days. Dormant Bitcoin Wallets Show Signs of Major Reallocation In addition to short-term derivatives market dynamics, other analysts are pointing to broader structural changes in Bitcoin’s investor base. CryptoQuant analyst OnChainSchool highlighted that in 2024, more than 255,000 BTC previously inactive for over seven years were reactivated. In 2025, this trend has continued, with over 215,000 BTC already moving within the first several months of the year. The average monthly movement of long-dormant coins has risen from 4,900 BTC in 2023 to over 30,000 BTC in 2025. Transaction sizes have also grown significantly, from around 162 BTC to over 1,000 BTC per transfer. According to OnChainSchool, these patterns indicate that large-scale holders, rather than retail investors, are reallocating capital on a scale not seen in previous cycles. The analyst suggested that beyond price fluctuations, these shifts may have long-term implications for market liquidity and Bitcoin’s future ownership distribution. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Earlier today, Bitcoin (BTC) briefly fell below $115,000 – hitting a low of $114,116 – triggering panic selling across major crypto exchanges, including Binance. Sharp shifts in several key metrics, such as open interest and net taker volume, confirm the intensity of the sell-off. Bitcoin Decline Wipes Out $500 Million In Open Interest According to a Quicktake post on CryptoQuant by contributor Amr Taha, BTC’s drop below $115,000 led to a sharp decline in open interest on Binance, which fell from $14 billion to under $13.5 billion. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rejected At $120,000: Binance Whale Inflows Suggest Possible Drop To $110,000 The following chart shows Binance open interest declining by nearly 4% in a single day – a move typically associated with liquidation events. Supporting this, data from CoinGlass shows $760 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours. To explain, such large-scale liquidation events typically occur when leveraged traders face forced position closures – long or short – due to margin calls. The sharp BTC drop resulted in the liquidation of approximately 183,514 traders in just 24 hours. In addition to falling open interest and widespread long liquidations, Binance’s net taker volume also points to rising bearish sentiment. The metric plunged to -$160 million, underscoring aggressive selling pressure. For context, Binance net taker volume measures the difference between market buy and sell orders initiated by takers. A positive value suggests dominant buying activity (bullish), while a negative value reflects dominant selling activity (bearish). Binance net taker volume dropping into negative territory further reinforces bearish pressure on BTC. Since this net selling coincided with the decline in open interest, it indicates that many derivatives traders are panic-closing late long positions. Will BTC Make Recovery? Despite the falling price, shrinking open interest, and negative net taker volume, Taha suggests that these bearish indicators could paradoxically set the stage for a short-term rebound. Related Reading: Bitcoin Overheating Signals Easing – Is A Second-Half Rally Ahead? Bitcoin’s selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion, while short interest continues to rise. This combination could trigger a market rebalancing phase, potentially paving the way for price stabilization – or even a short squeeze-driven bounce. However, on-chain data points to continued bearish momentum. The increasing share of new investors among BTC holders may lead to overheated market conditions in the near term.  At the same time, exchange reserves are rising, which could contribute to more selling pressure. Long-term BTC holders also appear to be selling in significant volumes, suggesting potential rally exhaustion. That said, BTC could still remain on track for its year-end target of $180,000 – but only if it holds key support at $110,000. At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $115,310, down 2.1% over the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) has continued to face resistance below the $120,000 level, with price action showing little momentum to push the asset toward a new high. At the time of writing, the world’s largest cryptocurrency is trading above $118,000, reflecting a slight pullback of around 3.6% from its most recent all-time high. With the asset still in a tight range, investors are watching whether Bitcoin can establish a breakout or if a price correction is more likely in the near term. Meanwhile, recent on-chain analysis has highlighted an area of potential concern in Bitcoin’s price history that may point to a retest of lower levels before further upward movement. Related Reading: Bitcoin Overheating Signals Easing – Is A Second-Half Rally Ahead? Analyst Highlights “Unrealized Gap” in Bitcoin’s Price Movement According to data shared on CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, the $111,000–$115,000 range remains an untested zone that could see renewed activity in the future, despite broader market optimism. CryptoQuant contributor and on-chain analyst CryptoMe has identified what he calls a “gap” in Bitcoin’s recent trading behavior. The analyst noted that between July 9 and 14, Bitcoin experienced a rapid rally from $110,000 to $123,000 without significant trading activity in the $111,000–$117,000 range. On-chain data during that period reportedly showed limited retail participation, with most buying pressure coming from institutional players. “This rapid upward move created a visible gap in the UTxO histogram,” CryptoMe explained, adding: Few transactions occurred in that range, meaning unrealized outputs were not established. Historically, such gaps have often been revisited by the market, filling those levels over time. The analyst also mentioned that part of the gap has already been addressed with price action touching $115,000–$117,000 in recent sessions, but the lower section around $111,000 remains unfilled. Historical Patterns Suggest Possible Retest of $111K Drawing from Bitcoin’s 16-year price history, CryptoMe pointed out that similar scenarios have occurred before. For instance, in 2024, Bitcoin skipped the $70,000–$80,000 range on its way to $110,000 but eventually revisited and filled that gap. Related Reading: $141,000 Could Be Next Key Bitcoin Resistance If Price Breaks Higher, Report Says Based on these recurring patterns, the analyst believes the $111,000 level may see a retest, even in a generally bullish environment. “What remains uncertain,” CryptoMe said, “is whether this will happen as a direct drop from current levels or after a further climb, potentially toward $140,000, followed by a correction.” The analyst advises market participants to consider the possibility of a pullback when planning their risk exposure and leverage positions, noting: But either way, I believe the gap will be filled! So investors should know that, even in this bullish environment, a pullback toward 111k is still possible, and they should adjust their positions, leverage, and risk levels accordingly. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin’s latest push towards $120,000 fizzled into a stall-out that now resembles a “failed breakout zone,” according to market analytics firm Swissblock. In a July 31 thread, the firm said “momentum has failed to ignite,” arguing that realized-profit flows and an overwhelming share of coins sitting in profit have turned every bounce into an opportunity for supply to meet price. Profit-Taking Cools Bitcoin Rally Swissblock framed the setback as a pause rather than a breakdown. “Profit-taking is rising—but not as intense as late 2024,” the firm wrote, adding that the effect through July was “enough to cap upside and trigger consolidation.” The tone is cooling, not capitulatory: “Selling pressure is visible, but not extreme—think cooling, not capitulation.” That diagnosis hinges on on-chain readings of realized profit—an input that tends to expand into rallies as long-held coins are spent into strength—and a market structure in which bids are absorbing supply rather than being overwhelmed by it. Related Reading: Bitcoin New Investor Dominance Rises – No Signs of Mass Profit-Taking Yet The most striking datapoint in the thread is breadth of profitability: “96% of supply is in profit,” Swissblock noted, citing Glassnode. That ratio is historically consistent with late-cycle euphoria, but it is also mechanically self-limiting; when nearly all holders are in the green, latent sell pressure rises because “unrealized gains are tempting sellers.” As Swissblock put it, “Strong holders remain. But unrealized gains are tempting sellers. Until demand returns, each bounce invites supply.” The firm contends the broader trend “is intact—but momentum needs a reset.” Beyond on-chain realized flows, the firm’s composite fundamentals read neutral with improving liquidity. “BTC fundamentals are strong and stable,” Swissblock wrote, pointing to a Bitcoin Fundamentals Index reading of 60 (neutral), “Network Growth is cooling,” and “Liquidity is recovering.” That mix typically favors range behavior over directional surges—“a consolidation-supportive environment,” as the post put it—in which Bitcoin “can grind sideways longer—until it’s ready to break with conviction.” The implication is that the market’s “failed breakout” risk reflects timing rather than trend reversal: positioning and liquidity are not aligned yet for a sustained continuation. Related Reading: Weak Bitcoin Treasury Companies Will Be Crushed By Bear Market, Insider Warns The cross-asset context is equally nuanced. “Altseason is active—but under stress,” Swissblock wrote, observing that while “$ETH continues to outperform BTC structurally, holding up better in this pullback,” most altcoins are sagging, with “only 5% of top 100 showing positive impulse.” That thinning rotation underlines the selectivity of risk appetite and the fragility of momentum outside of the largest names. Historically, that pattern often precedes a decisive move in Bitcoin that either recharges the rotation or breaks it. Swissblock’s concluding assessment leans cautiously constructive. “Profit-taking is fading and selling pressure is being absorbed. BTC is preparing for breakout—but momentum needs to align.” Until that alignment arrives, the firm expects a grind: bids continue to meet supply from profitable holders, realized profits moderate, and liquidity improves in the background. If and when Bitcoin flips momentum back to positive, Swissblock argues, the spillover could be forceful: “While BTC grinds sideways, watch for the moment it flips—ETH and altcoins will likely explode upward when it does.” In short, today’s dip to $115,000 looks less like an outright rejection than a test of the market’s ability to digest profits and reset momentum without damage to the underlying uptrend. With 96% of supply in profit and breadth compressed, the next impulse likely hinges on whether liquidity and demand can reassert themselves before profit-taking reaccelerates. For now, Swissblock’s message is clear: the breakout will need to be earned, not assumed. At press time, BTC traded at $115,452. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has broken down from the two-week consolidation range that held the market between $115,724 and $122,077, reaching a new local low near $114,000. The drop confirms a shift in short-term momentum, putting bulls on the defensive. The $117,000 level—previously a key support zone—now serves as the immediate resistance that must be reclaimed to signal a possible reversal. Related Reading: Bitcoin New Investor Dominance Rises – No Signs of Mass Profit-Taking Yet The breakdown comes at a critical time, as sentiment across the market begins to shift. According to fresh data from CryptoQuant, futures sentiment turned bearish today, falling sharply before bouncing back slightly to 48%. While still close to neutral, any reading below 50% signals bearish dominance in positioning. This adds pressure to an already fragile technical structure and suggests traders are bracing for more downside. Unless bulls can recover $117K quickly and close with strength, Bitcoin risks entering a deeper correction phase. With long-term support levels still intact, the broader bull trend remains in place—but this breakdown marks the first significant loss of momentum in weeks. The coming sessions will be critical in determining whether this is just a shakeout or the start of a larger trend reversal. Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Index Signals Rising Bearish Pressure Top analyst Axel Adler has shared new insights into the Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Index, a key metric used to gauge futures market positioning and broader investor mood. According to Adler, the index recently dropped to 40%—a sharp decline that reflected growing risk aversion and bearish positioning. Although the metric has since rebounded to 48%, it remains below the critical 50% threshold, which separates bullish from bearish territory. This rebound signals a temporary pause in negative sentiment, but the broader trend shows a shift from bullish caution to bearish fear. Adler notes that as long as the index remains below 50%, the market lacks the confidence needed to sustain upward momentum. Traders are growing increasingly defensive, reducing long exposure and bracing for further downside. If momentum continues to deteriorate, BTC could test the $112,000 level—the previous all-time high set in May. This zone may act as psychological and technical support, but failure to hold it could trigger a deeper correction. With the Advanced Sentiment Index stuck in bearish territory and price action weakening, the market appears to be entering a riskier phase. While this doesn’t yet signal a full trend reversal, it does reflect growing uncertainty. Until sentiment and price reclaim higher ground, caution is warranted. The next move will likely depend on whether bulls can defend $112K—or if bears gain full control of the trend. Related Reading: Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase Signals Market Sits Between Accumulation And Distribution BTC Loses Key Support After Breakdown Bitcoin has officially broken down from its two-week consolidation range, losing the critical $115,724 support level highlighted in the chart. The price reached a new local low at $114,116 before recovering slightly to the $115,100 zone, where it’s currently attempting to find footing. This marks a significant shift in momentum, as bulls failed to defend the lower boundary of the range, which held firm throughout July. The 12-hour chart shows rising volume accompanying this breakdown, adding weight to the bearish move. BTC now trades below the 50-day SMA ($116,981), confirming weakness in short-term structure. The next major support sits around $112,000—the prior all-time high set in May—which could act as a psychological and technical floor. Related Reading: Whale Buys $153M In Ethereum From Galaxy Digital OTC: Institutions Are Betting Big The 100-day and 200-day SMAs remain well below current price action, suggesting that the macro trend is still intact. However, immediate momentum has clearly shifted, and bulls must reclaim the $117,000 area quickly to invalidate this breakdown. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView