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With the latest rally to a new all-time high above $125,700, the Bitcoin price looks to have begun another path that could lead to multiple new all-time highs. At this time, market sentiment has moved back into the positive, and this continues to show in the way the price has held above $120,000 despite the corrective dips. Crypto analyst CrediBULL Crypto believes that this means that the Bitcoin price is set on its path to $150,000, so this report takes a look at the breakdown. Why The Bitcoin Price Is Headed To $150,000 And The Best Time To Buy In the analysis that was shared with over 478,000 followers on the X (formerly Twitter) platform, CrediBULL Crypto highlights the recent move that saw the Bitcoin price hit a new all-time high. According to the analyst, the fact that it was an impulse move led to this all-time high is bullish, and shows that the cryptocurrency is ready for the next leg-up that will lead it to $150,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s 2021 Playbook Shows The Final Price Target For This Bull Cycle Naturally, there have been pullbacks when the Bitcoin price has retested the $121,000-$122,000 zone. However, the price has held up, and most especially, it is well above $108,400, which was the start of the impulse wave. Given that this level was the bottom that began this recent move, the Bitcoin price remains bullish as long as it continues to trade above it. This also drives into the fact that there are particular areas of interest from here that would make for a good entry point. The crypto analyst points out the next demand zone that is lying firmly between $108,000 and $118,000, due to how the last move began and played out. CrediBULL Crypto explains that for the crypto traders who had shorted the move between $108,000 and $118,000 and are now stuck with underwater bags, a return to this zone would create a strong area of demand. This is because these traders would be looking to close their underwater positions or possibly refill their positions at these levels. Either way, the outcome is the same: it would create a lot of demand at this level, making it a potential area for a bounce. Related Reading: XRP Ready For Bullish Pop As Important Technical Signal Reappears Going by this logic, if the Bitcoin price does retrace back anywhere between $108,000 and $118,000, then it would be an ideal time to buy. “Dips into that zone of 108-118k are a blessing if we get them- and if not, well then enjoy the ride to 150k,” the analyst stated. However, this depends entirely on the Bitcoin price holding above the $108,400 start point. If the price were to fall below this level, then it is possible it would invalidate this bullish thesis and trigger more sell-offs once again. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin short-term holder whales are sitting on their highest unrealized gain of the cycle after the latest rally. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Whales Are Carrying $10.1 Billion In Profits As pointed out by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a new post on X, the Bitcoin short-term holder whales have seen their profits hit the highest point of the cycle. The short-term holders (STHs) broadly refer to the BTC investors who purchased the cryptocurrency within the past 155 days. These holders are considered to include the “weak hands” of the market, who tend to panic at the sight of volatility. Related Reading: Bitcoin STH Exchange Inflows Hit $5.7B: Profit-Taking Already Underway? In the context of the current topic, the STHs as a whole aren’t of relevance, but rather a specific portion of the cohort: the whales. “Whales” are defined as entities carrying more than 1,000 tokens of the asset in their wallet balance. The STH whales, therefore, would be the holders of this size who got into the market in the last five months. Bitcoin is currently trading at price levels it has never reached before in its history, so the STHs (barring those who bought at the weekend high above $125,000) would naturally all be in profit at the moment. An indicator that can highlight the scale of their gain is the Unrealized P&L, which measures, as its name suggests, the net amount of unrealized profit/loss that Bitcoin holders are carrying right now. Below is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in this indicator for the Bitcoin STH whales over the past year. From the graph, it’s visible that the Bitcoin STH whales fell into the red during the cryptocurrency’s decline in late September. But with the rally in the asset, the Unrealized P&L for the group has seen a sharp recovery into the positive region, rising to a high of $10.1 billion. The analyst notes that this is a cycle high for the metric. Given the weak nature of the STHs, it’s possible that these massive profits may entice some of these whales into exiting the market here. It now remains to be seen whether enough demand will keep coming in to absorb any such potential profit-taking. Related Reading: Dogecoin’s Big Breakout Incoming? Analyst Calls To “Stay Alert” Speaking of the STHs, the current cycle has seen two large waves of coin transfer from the long-term holders (LTHs) to the STHs, as on-chain analysis suite Checkonchain has highlighted in an X post. “3.45M BTC has shifted to Short-Term Holders this cycle, rivaling 2016–17 in scale but at 100x higher prices,” notes Checkonchain. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $124,600, up around 11% over the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, Checkonchain.com, chart from TradingView.com

As Bitcoin (BTC) hit a new all-time high (ATH) of $125,708 on Binance yesterday, BTC exchange inflows are starting to show signs of slowing down. As a result, crypto analysts are confident that the top cryptocurrency by market cap may be on the cusp of a healthy rally. Bitcoin Exchange Inflows Slump Amid New ATH According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor ChainSpan, fresh on-chain data shows that the average amount of BTC inflows into exchanges such as Binance has decreased significantly. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sharpe-Like Ratio Shows Market In Wait-and-See Mode At $119,000 To recall, BTC sent to exchanges is usually seen as a warning sign, as it suggests that investors are attempting to sell their holdings at prevailing market prices. As a result, high inflows to exchanges typically create selling pressure on the underlying asset’s price. On the contrary, a decrease in exchange inflows indicates that BTC holders are opting to hold their assets in cold wallets. One of the cascading effects of lower exchange inflows is that it could lead to a “supply crunch” for BTC, which may lead to extraordinary price appreciation in a short duration. ChainSpan noted that as Bitcoin’s price surged from $108,000 to $125,000 over the past few weeks, the inflow average for the cryptocurrency has dropped from 0.55 to 0.48. This suggests that the current rally is being driven by organic market demand and holding behavior. Put simply, the increase in BTC’s price is not happening in tandem with a speculative selling wave, but rather on a foundation of reduced selling pressure. The analyst added: In the short term, this backdrop supports the upward trend. Yet, if large inflows into exchanges suddenly appear in the coming days, it could be a sign that major players are preparing to sell. In such a case, a short-term correction in the price may follow. The CryptoQuant analyst concluded by saying that although the current market conditions point toward low selling intent and strong demand for BTC, a sudden spike in exchange inflows could derail the digital asset’s momentum. As a result, investors should keep a close eye on the metric. Will BTC Surge Further In Q4? While BTC has already created a new ATH, some crypto analysts forecast that the digital asset may record more gains in the coming quarter. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital predicted that BTC could peak sometime in mid-November. Related Reading: A Breakout To New Highs? Bitcoin’s Bullish Wave Eyes $130k As RSI Stays Firm Similarly, recent analysis by the team at The Bull Theory forecasts that BTC may surge as high as $143,000 in October. Historically, October has been one of the strongest months for BTC in terms of price appreciation. That said, BTC must first ensure it decisively breaks through the stiff resistance at $125,000 and defends the support level at $118,000. At press time, BTC trades at $125,189, up 1.9% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s wonderful rally to a new all-time high of $125,700 on Sunday was met almost immediately by a sharp correction. This sudden pullback, which is expected given the all-time high, saw Bitcoin break below $123,000 in less than two hours after the new record.  Interestingly, on-chain data shows a notable increase in whale activity during and after the all-time high to and from exchanges. One such example is a massive $200 million Bitcoin transfer into Binance, a move that appears to have been a calculated profit-taking action by a whale address. Whale Profit-Taking Contributes To Selling Pressure Shortly after Bitcoin hit its record high, blockchain data first revealed by whale transaction tracker Whale Alert on X shows that a whale address identified as “3NVeX” transferred a total of 1,550 BTC, worth nearly $200 million, to Binance in two separate transactions. The first transaction involved the transfer of 800 BTC worth $100 million, followed by another transfer of 750 BTC worth $93.7 million. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Still On Track To Hit $165,000, JPMorgan Analysts Reveal Timeline The timing of these transfers coincided almost perfectly with the recent price top, and the whale most likely sold into the rally. Once the transfers were completed, the wallet held only about 0.1 BTC, meaning the whale had sold off most of their holdings. According to data from whale transaction tracker Whale Alert shared on X, the number of large Bitcoin transfers to and from exchanges has increased notably over the past few days. Several multi-million-dollar transactions, each exceeding $10 million, have been spotted moving between private wallets and major trading platforms such as Binance and Coinbase. Another notable example is the transfer of 401 BTC worth $50.2 million from an unknown wallet address “1Jip8s” into Coinbase Institutional. Not long after, 401 BTC were sent from an unknown wallet “1E8p4n” into Coinbase Institutional in another separate transaction. Altogether, the sudden wave of high inflows across multiple platforms paints a clear picture of whales locking in profits after Bitcoin’s all-time high. Bitcoin Price Outlook Bitcoin’s price quickly slipped below $123,000 following the whale-triggered selloff, before rebounding to around $122,530. The pullback was relatively modest compared to previous all-time highs, but it nonetheless served as a reminder of how easily large holders can influence price action. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bear Trap Over? Pundit Reveals Where The Market Is At Right Now Despite the brief downturn, the correction may prove healthy for Bitcoin’s rally. It allows overheated momentum to cool off and sets the stage for a more sustainable advance once selling pressure eases. Data from Whale Alerts shows cases of millions of dollars worth of BTC also leaving crypto exchanges for private, unknown wallets. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $123,380. As long as Bitcoin maintains support above $120,000, its long-term outlook remains bullish, and it may as well create a new all-time high before the week runs out. This also depends on how well Spot Bitcoin ETFs perform this week. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

While the Bitcoin price seems to have deviated completely from the four-year cycle that dictated the previous bull and bear markets, there are still some similarities that remain that suggest that it could still play out in a similar way. The major similarity that has emerged is the formation of a bearish crab pattern back in 2021, and now, the same pattern has reappeared. Thus, taking a look at the direction of the 2021 formation could give an insight into where the Bitcoin price is headed next from here. The Pattern That Triggered The Bitcoin Price Explosion In an analysis, crypto analyst Weslad was the one who pointed out that the Bearish Crab Pattern had returned, and this was formed on the daily chart as well. Interestingly, the current formation looks eerily similar to the way it formed back in 2021, suggesting that the resulting trend could play out the same. Related Reading: Key Price Breakout Sets Dogecoin On 153% Rally To Clear $0.65 – Details Back in 2021, when the Bearish Crab Pattern came up, the result was a price explosion that sent the Bitcoin price toward its $69,000 all-time high. This “Blow-off top” rally is usually the last rally in a bull market, and its end often signals the start of the next bear market. With this pattern, though, there are a number of targets to watch out for that could show where the price is headed next. The first of these is that the Bitcoin price would need to complete a daily close above the $124,545 level, and this is known as the Activation Trigger. Next in line is what Weslad refers to as the “Buy The Dip Zone”. This would be the ideal price range to enter Bitcoin in the case of a retrace, and this lies between $118,000 and $120,000. A dip toward these levels is nothing to worry about, as it means that the bulls are still in control. Related Reading: Dogecoin Face-Melting Rally: This Bullish Impulse Will Send Price Toward $0.8 ATH Both of the zones outlined above, if held, would see the Bitcoin price continue its bullish rally. If the final, explosive leg does play out as it did back in 2017-2021, then the Crab pattern suggests that the Bitcoin price will at least go to $136,000, with an extended target of $147,000, and the possibility that it goes further toward $160,000. However, the final target is the bearish one that could send the Bitcoin price crashing back downward, and it lies at $107,000. According to the crypto analyst, a break below this level would invalidate the entire bullish thesis, calling it the “line in the sand.” Weslad explains that “The invalidation level at $107K is crucial. A break below there means the setup is broken, and we must re-assess.” Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Whales are on the move again, and this time it aligns with one of the biggest ETF buying weeks of the year for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Both Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs returned to inflows last week, and data shows some whales addresses are also moving their crypto assets from exchanges and into self custody.  On-chain tracker Lookonchain reported that newly created wallets have withdrawn massive amounts of Bitcoin and Ethereum from major exchanges, showing the large-scale accumulation by crypto whales. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breaks $123,000 As Rising Open Interest Signals More Action Ahead Massive Withdrawals From Crypto Exchanges According to data from SosoValue, Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $3.24 billion worth of inflows in the just-concluded week, reversing the $902.5 million outflows seen the previous week. Notably, this week’s inflow number is the largest weekly inflow on record for Spot Bitcoin ETFs this year. Spot Ethereum ETFs, on the other hand, saw $1.30 billion inflows last week, which is another drastic change from last week’s outflows of $795.56 million. However, this activity is not limited to Spot ETFs alone. Fresh wallet activity shows aggressive accumulation activity among whale addresses moving into self custody. In one instance, on-chain analytics tracker Lookonchain noted that a newly created wallet, identified as 0x982C, withdrew 26,029 ETH worth approximately $118 million from Kraken. Another newly created Bitcoin wallet, bc1qks, withdrew 620 BTC valued at $76 million from Binance. Both movements are large-scale repositioning of capital away from exchanges, and this is a sign that whales are expecting further price appreciation. Whales are buying $ETH and $BTC! Newly created wallet 0x982C withdrew 26,029 $ETH($118M) from #Kraken 8 hours ago. Newly created wallet bc1qks withdrew 620 $BTC($76M) from #Binance 6 hours ago.https://t.co/8Aa1g0BgWthttps://t.co/qsasXKFHuN pic.twitter.com/iTYhz8jwq3 — Lookonchain (@lookonchain) October 4, 2025 Interestingly, Bitcoin exchange balances have fallen to their lowest level in five years. Almost 170,000 Bitcoin were removed from crypto exchanges in the last 30 days, with the most activity coming in the just concluded week. This has pushed the Bitcoin exchange balance below 2.85 million BTC for the first time since January 2021. Bitcoin Exchange Balance. Source: @btconexchanges on X Price Outlook For Bitcoin And Ethereum The combination of institutional inflows and whale accumulation has been already reflected in the price action of both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Bitcoin has surged past its previous record to hit a new all-time high of $125,506 within the last few hours, and is currently trading around $124,813. This is a drastic change from just a week ago, when Bitcoin broke below $110,000, which caused the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index to crash to its lowest point since March. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rockets Past $119K, Analysts Now Eye $130K Target Ethereum has also turned bullish and is trading at $4,575 at the time of writing. Another good week of Spot ETF inflows and whale accumulation continuing at the current pace could cause Bitcoin to extend its rally throughout the week. This, in turn could see Bitcoin break $130,000 before the end of the new week. However, a brief cooldown isn’t off the table. Any pullback could cause Bitcoin to retest $120,000 before the next leg higher. Still on the bullish case, Ethereum’s price could also push to new all-time highs above $5,000 in the coming weeks. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

According to the latest on-chain data, Bitcoin has been witnessing an interesting change in its holder behavior, further intensifying the bullish speculation in the market.   Bitcoin UTXO Count Declines As Price Surges In a Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, market analyst CryptoOnchain revealed that long-term Bitcoin investors seem to be changing their investment strategy by increasingly holding on to their coins. This on-chain observation is based on the Bitcoin UTXO Count metric, which tracks the total number of individual unspent transaction outputs on the blockchain. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breaks $123,000 As Rising Open Interest Signals More Action Ahead For context, an unspent transaction output is an amount of a cryptocurrency (in this case, Bitcoin) that has been received by an address, but has not yet been used as input for a new transaction. CryptoOnchain shared that this on-chain metric has been on a steady decline since January 2025. In the post, the crypto analyst pointed out that the UTXO count recently reached about 166.6 million, the lowest point seen since April 2024.  Since the Bitcoin UTXO reached a peak of approximately 187.5 million in January, it has witnessed a contraction of up to 11% — an event which CryptoOnchain interprets as a clear sign of network consolidation.  Interestingly, this decline seen with unspent transaction output contrasts with Bitcoin’s price action. While the UTXO has maintained a steady bearish structure, Bitcoin’s value has continued to ascend. The flagship cryptocurrency saw a price growth from about $99,000 to its current market price of around $122,000. This “inverse relationship” is one that the online pundit explained to be a “classic hallmark of a maturing market.” Why The Decline And What To Expect A decreased UTXO count could be a result of several underlying factors, including that long-term holders are choosing to hold their coins rather than selling for profit. Owing to this “hodling” behavior, it can be said that the market is starting to gain maturity. Also, CryptoOnchain explained that low UTXOs could indicate reduced transactions within the Blockchain. By extension, this could mean that fewer sales are going on, which translates to reduced selling pressure on price. Also, a lower UTXO count points to increasing network efficiency. As users aggregate smaller UTXOs into larger ones, they optimize the blockchain space, leading potentially to a less congested network. Ultimately, the simultaneous decline in Bitcoin’s UTXO and its price increase paints an exciting picture for the cryptocurrency’s future. This combination signals that the premier cryptocurrency is at a reaccumulation phase, meaning that investors are strategically positioning themselves in expectation of the next significant upward move. As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at about $122,720, showing an over 1% growth in the past day. Related Reading: Bitcoin Faces Key Levels: $125k Resistance Vs $118k Support – Details Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin and XRP have both made strong attempts to reclaim resistance levels in recent days. Bitcoin has broken above the $120,000 price level. XRP, on the other hand, hasn’t found it as easy to establish a firm breakout, although it has pushed as high as $3.10 in the past 24 hours. Technical analysis points to possible short-term price gains if resistance levels holds, but it also outlines a scenario where both Bitcoin and XRP could face another round of declines in the coming week. Related Reading: Space Meets Crypto—Spacecoin Executes 1st Blockchain Transaction Beyond Earth XRP’s Struggle Against The Downtrend Technical analysis of XRP’s daily candlestick timeframe chart, which was posted on the social media platform X by a crypto analyst called Guy on the Earth, shows that XRP’s price action in the past 48 hours is pushing above a downtrend resistance, with the top of its consolidation rectangle at $3.12 now in focus.  The analyst noted that the cryptocurrency narrowly missed this target during its latest surge, stalling at $3.10 before slipping back to $3. However, XRP has so far managed to retest and find support on the downtrend line, which suggests there is still a chance for continuation higher. However, the analyst noted that the rally could fade quickly, unless XRP can closes the week and hold above the $3.12. A drop back below $3.00 would invalidate the breakout attempt and reopen the possibility of a breakdown to the $2.72 support. The pink circle drawn on the chart below shows the risk of XRP falling back to retest the ascending trendline around $2.40 to $2.50 if $2.72 is broken. XRP Daily Price Chart: @guyontheearth Bitcoin, on the other hand, has been displaying stronger momentum. The breakout above $120,000 has been decisive, and this can be seen as a healthier technical structure compared to XRP. The Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) is also pointing higher, meaning Bitcoin could continue leading the market regardless of whether the next move is up or down. A Big Weekend Ahead For Both Bitcoin And XRP The next few days will be important for both XRP and Bitcoin. The three-day candle closes within hours, and the weekly candle will confirm the broader direction soon after. For XRP, holding above the $3.00 downtrend retest is important to maintain bullish momentum. On the other hand, Bitcoin maintaining strength above $120,000 could confirm its breakout and establish new grounds for further rallies. Failure for Bitcoin to hold above $120,000, would likely usher in another bloody phase next week, with XRP at risk of dropping back toward $2.72 or even lower. The week’s close will determine whether this rally has legs or whether the correction scenario plays out instead. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rockets Past $119K, Analysts Now Eye $130K Target At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $3.03. Bitcoin is trading at $122,500. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin short-term holders have just made large deposits to exchanges, a potential sign profit-taking is underway. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Exchange Inflows Have Shot Up In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about the latest trend in the deposits being made by Bitcoin short-term holders to centralized exchanges. The “short-term holders” (STHs) refer to the BTC investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. The STHs make up for one of the two main divisions of the network done on the basis of holding time, with the other side being known as the “long-term holders” (LTHs). Related Reading: Dogecoin’s Big Breakout Incoming? Analyst Calls To “Stay Alert” Historically, the former cohort has proven to include the weak hands of the market who panic sell whenever volatility emerges in the asset, while the latter is made up of the blockchain’s diamond hands. Bitcoin has witnessed a sharp rally over the past week that has taken it past the $122,000 level. Considering the nature of the STHs, it would be expected that they would be looking to take some profits. For LTHs, tracking selling can be simple because as soon as a member of the cohort breaks their dormancy, their coins exit the cohort and enter the STHs, as their age counter resets back to zero. It’s not quite as easy in the case of the STHs, however, as the group’s coins are constantly in motion within its members. One way to gauge STH selling is through their transactions to exchanges. Generally, one of the main reasons why investors use these centralized platforms is for trading-related purposes, so deposits to them can be an indication that there is demand for selling the cryptocurrency. Below is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the exchange inflows coming from the Bitcoin STHs. As is visible in the graph, the Bitcoin STH deposits to exchanges have shot up alongside the latest price rally. The inflows that have spiked have specifically been the profit ones, with there being no loss deposits at all. Thus, it seems the buyers who got in during the price all-time high (ATH) are choosing to hold through this run. In total, the STHs have transferred 46,276 BTC over a 24-hour span during the latest run. At the current exchange rate, this is equivalent to a whopping $5.7 billion. The analyst notes that this is one of the largest spikes that the indicator has seen recently. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breaks $119,000: Analyst Says $139,000 Could Be Next It now remains to be seen whether enough demand will appear to absorb this selling pressure, or if the profit-taking will provide impedance to the Bitcoin rally. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $122,700, up more than 11% over the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

As the Bitcoin price approaches record highs, recently surpassing the $121,000 mark, analysts are increasingly optimistic about the cryptocurrency’s trajectory for October, often termed “Uptober.” According to the analysis team at The Bull Theory, there’s a possibility that the Bitcoin price could reach as much as $143,000, meaning a potential surge of nearly 20% for the rest of the month. Bitcoin Price Poised For October Rally Such projections may seem ambitious, but historical data supports the notion that October has consistently been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months. Over the past 12 years, BTC has closed in the green during October in 10 of those years, and the correlation between strong performances in September and October is noteworthy.  Following a positive September—where the Bitcoin price recently posted a gain of 3.91%—the stage appears set for another fruitful October. Bitcoin has an impressive October win rate of 83%, having only recorded losses in the month twice since 2011.  Related Reading: Ethereum Price Forecast: Expert Predicts Final Impulse Wave Targeting $18,000 In 2014, the cryptocurrency fell by 12.95%, and in 2018, it dropped by 3.83%. This remarkable track record highlights October as one of the most profitable months for Bitcoin holders, with an average return of 20.62%.  The pattern remains consistent: every time September has closed positively, October has followed suit. Historical data from previous years shows that a green September often leads to substantial gains in October.  For instance, in 2015, the Bitcoin price rose by 33.49% after a September increase of 2.35%. Similarly, in 2023, a 3.91% gain in September translated to a substantial 28.52% increase in October. Could BTC Reach $150,000? The bullish sentiment doesn’t end there. In four out of four instances where both September and October closed positively, November also maintained the upward trend. The data showcases consistent gains: in 2015, November saw a 19.27% increase following a strong October. If Bitcoin were to replicate its historical average return of 20.62% this October, a price point around $143,539 could be on the horizon. Even if it aligns with the median return of 14.71%, investors could see new records reaching just above $136,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Nears Record Levels, Predictions Point To $140,000 By Early 2026 Market expert Michael van de Poppe has also chimed in on the bullish outlook for the Bitcoin price. He noted several strong technical indicators, including BTC’s ability to hold the 20-week moving average as support, breaking through a downtrend at $112,000, and positioning for the highest weekly close in its history.  Recent performance has seen a robust 11% weekly candle, further fueling optimism. Additionally, with gold experiencing a significant run, the expert suggests that the Bitcoin price appears poised to catch up.  Van de Poppe has expressed confidence that, if current trends continue, the market’s leading cryptocurrency could not only hit $150,000 this quarter but also achieve a new all-time high within the month. When writing, BTC trades at approximately $121,669, only 2% below all-time high levels above $124,000. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

The vision of Bitcoin absorbing the world’s entire capital float is a compelling narrative, yet it runs headlong into a significant technical constraint. Bitcoin will not realize this massive potential unless mechanisms are created to move and utilize capital directly on its network.  Why Bitcoin Can’t Absorb Global Wealth Overnight Analyst BRITISH HODL presents a powerful thesis on BTC’s role, arguing that its impact extends far beyond its own valuation, fundamentally changing how global capital is allocated. In an X post, BRITISH HODL stated that while BTC aims to absorb global capital, this is conditional, and BTC will not capture all of the capital flow on earth unless it is redirected onto the BTC network. Related Reading: No Accident: The Powerful Factors Behind Bitcoin’s Late-September Rally However, as BTC becomes more widely understood, capital will become extremely sensitive, and only the highest quality equities will attract capital. This is simply an existing, long-term trend, evidenced by the dominance of a select few, such as the Magnificent Seven (Mag7) stocks in traditional markets over the last 30 years.  Bitcoin intensifies this trend because it provides a highly accessible and transparent standard for risk-free returns. As the risk hurdle rate increases, investors are no longer satisfied with marginal gains from poor-quality assets. The consequence of this will be a significant market cleaning and a lot of concentrated value-creating innovation as companies are forced to deliver exceptional performance to earn capital. Meanwhile, there will be a very fast turnover of terrible companies as BTC’s value proposition becomes increasingly understood by investors. BRITISH HODL makes it clear that in a BTC-dominant era, you must outperform BTC on a risk-adjusted basis to capture any capital. The Growing View Of Bitcoin As An Alternative Money Billionaire investor Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, maintains a balanced yet skeptical view of Bitcoin, acknowledging its growing influence while pointing out fundamental flaws that will prevent its ultimate adoption by nation-states. Related Reading: Bitcoin Adoption Expands As Ohio Approves Vendor For State Cryptocurrency Payments Dalio starts by stating that while he can’t say exactly how effective BTC is as a money, the fact that it’s being perceived by many as an alternative money is worth paying attention to. He frames the utility of any currency as both a medium of exchange and a store of wealth, emphasizing that the latter is more important. Despite its revolutionary technology, Dalio highly doubts that any central bank will take it on as a reserve currency. However, since all of the transactions are public, there is no privacy, which is unacceptable for sovereign entities managing vast financial operations. As a result of the risk in the future, the code could be broken to make it less effective through government controls. The expert confirms that he does have some BTC in his portfolio, though not a significant amount. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

After months of uncertainty and sideways trading, fresh technical analysis suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) may have finally exited its bear trap phase. A leading crypto pundit indicates the market has entered a classic cycle of emotions, transitioning from fear to optimism. If this trend continues, the next phase could spark a major rally, with altcoins set to explode.  Bitcoin Bear Trap Ends, Altcoins Next Crypto analyst Ardizor posted on X social media on Wednesday that Bitcoin has officially reached the end of its bear trap stage. He argued that the recent downturns were not signs of further collapse but a final shakeout before the next stage of the cycle.  Related Reading: Analyst’s Prediction Plays Out As Bitcoin Price Rebounds, Here’s The Full Forecast To support his view, the crypto expert shared a chart illustrating the classic psychology and emotional transitions of a market cycle. From early momentum building to euphoric peaks and painful capitulation, the chart identifies where traders currently stand in the market. Ardizorn’s chart also emphasized that the declines and false breakdowns that rattled investors and caused extreme fear in recent weeks have concluded, and now, the market is at the stage of “renewed optimism.”  Interestingly, this shift has led the analyst to believe that altcoins could soon start outperforming as traders rotate their capital from BTC. Based on this trend, Ardizor boldly predicts that altcoins will explode next, with many potentially reaching new all-time highs.  His outlook is reinforced by another market analyst, Mister Crypto, who argues that September was merely a bear trap for Bitcoin, and that October, often dubbed “Uptober” in trading circles, will spark a new bullish phase, with altcoins poised to outperform dramatically. Adding further weight to the bullish case, crypto expert Jelle pointed out that both of Bitcoin’s last two cycles lasted exactly 1,064 days. If history repeats, the current cycle could peak around October 27, giving altcoins extra room to perform strongly into late November.    Altcoin Season On The Horizon With the broader altcoin market already recovering from past declines, market analyst Chiefy paints a similarly bullish picture for these assets in 2025. His chart demonstrates a series of breakouts, each marking a significant surge in altcoin valuations relative to Bitcoin. According to the crypto expert, altcoins could reach their breakout stage on October 5, ushering in what he calls “the biggest altseason in history.”  Related Reading: Expert Says ‘The Time Has Come’, What Could Drive The Next Explosive Altcoin Season The analyst’s chart highlights past breakout points that have multiplied prices by 120x, 175x, and 150x, with the next stage projected to reach as high as 200x. This exponential growth pattern mirrors what traders witnessed in previous cycles, reinforcing the idea that the crypto market trends to rhyme, if not repeat.  Chiefy has stated that the unfolding altcoin season could push prices to new ATHs and deliver massive opportunities for traders. He highlighted that, after months of consolidation and endless shakeouts, the market momentum has officially shifted toward a clear uptrend phase, with low-cap cryptocurrencies poised to kick off rallies. According to him, back in 2017 and 2021, traders who accumulated altcoins in this stage saw life-changing gains. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

In a wide-ranging interview with Anthony Pompliano published on October 2, Jeff Park, partner and Chief Investing Officer at ProCap BTC, argued that gold’s surging price and shifting global ownership patterns are not a threat to Bitcoin—but potentially the catalyst for its next structural leg higher. Park’s thesis centers on flows, geopolitics, and balance-sheet mechanics: if policymakers and large allocators learn to tap the paper gains embedded in sovereign gold holdings, they could redirect a meaningful slice of that liquidity into Bitcoin and ignite what he repeatedly framed as a supercycle. Why Gold’s Rally May Trigger A Bitcoin Supercycle “The math is pretty simple,” Park said. “What if we find a way to unlock the ability to build leverage on the paper gains of gold to take a call option on Bitcoin? There’s something incredible here that could happen.” In his back-of-the-envelope scenario, “a trillion dollars of Bitcoin is actually hugely impactful for the bitcoin market.” He contrasted the magnitude of such an impulse with the size of the US fiscal problem, suggesting that while a trillion dollars is small relative to public debt, it would be outsized in a young asset with finite supply and thin free float. Related Reading: Bitcoin Calm Is Over — ‘Every Time This Happened, Price Went Vertical,’ Says Analyst Park’s remarks were prompted by a simple question: why is gold ripping while Bitcoin has lagged on a relative basis? He did not dispute gold’s leadership—calling it “the story of the year”—but argued the drivers differ. Gold is presently the venue for acute geopolitical expression and central-bank rebalancing, while Bitcoin’s adoption curve hinges on institutional flows that are still ramping. “Ultimately [these markets] are driven by flows,” he said, adding that Bitcoin’s flows are “inevitable” so long as the institutional agenda advances with “focused deliberation.” A crucial plank of Park’s framework is the changing geography of gold. He pointed to two simultaneous realities: the headline that US gold reserves have reached a large notional value because of price—and the under-discussed fact that the US share of global official gold has sunk over decades. “At one point post-World War II the US had over 50% of the world’s global gold reserve supply as a central bank and now it’s less than 20%. So who’s making up for the compensation on their side? Likely China and many other BRIC countries in the lead.” That shift, Park argued, helps explain the persistence of gold’s bid. China, in his telling, is exerting influence not only through accumulation but also by building market infrastructure. He highlighted “the launch of the Shanghai Gold Exchange” and the rise of “the Shanghai Futures Exchange,” observing that “physical gold now actually trades in China” at a scale once associated with London. In a symbolic move earlier this year, “for the first time [they] opened up vaults in Hong Kong to allow offshore investors to put their gold in reserves,” a step Park sees as part of a longer-term strategy to enhance the creditworthiness of CNY-settled commodity trade. Will The US Act First? Park then connected this gold realignment to Bitcoin’s addressable demand. He referred to the scenario in which the US takes the massive unrealized gains on its gold if marked at market and either revalues or borrows against those gains to purchase Bitcoin for its strategic reserve under President Donald Trump. “Gold has been marked at the Treasury at $42 an ounce and we all know right now it’s trading at [roughly] 3850… There’s a trillion dollars of basically paper gains.” In that context, he argued that leveraging paper gains into a scarce digital reserve asset could be a high-beta upgrade to the sovereign balance sheet. Pressed on the political feasibility, Park distinguished between executive action and legislation. “The executive path is a great starting point to create a watershed moment,” he said, but “no democratic coalition is truly bought in until a legislative motion.” The former could demonstrate intent; the latter would make a Bitcoin reserve strategy “irreversible” and align it with the broader social mandate he associates with sound-money adoption. The crux of his “supercycle” framing is compounding. Park walked through return profiles to quantify why a large base allocation, even if financed, could matter over time. “If you own Bitcoin and you assume that it’s going to go up by 12% a year, you’ll make a 30x in 30 years… If you think it’s actually going to go up by 40% per year, which is what the [asset] has been otherwise annualizing, it’s 10 years.” He stressed that the point is not to promise those numbers, but to illustrate how modest annualized returns can cover meaningful fiscal gaps when the base is large enough and the asset is credibly scarce. Why Is Bitcoin Lagging Gold? Park also addressed why Bitcoin has not matched gold’s recent pace. Part of the answer, he suggested, is optics: Bitcoin is “living, breathing software” that evolves via open debate, whereas gold’s appeal is its millennia-long immutability. The transparency of Bitcoin’s governance can spook newcomers who only see the noise. “If I were outside and I was a BlackRock ETF buyer and I listened to the conversation that’s happening between the Bitcoin developers, I might say, ‘Hold on a second. This is crazy stuff.’” Even so, he framed current developer disputes—such as arguments over relay policy or spam-filter defaults—as hygiene issues, not existential ones. They matter for performance and propagation, but not for the core monetary assurances: “21 million or bust.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Breaks $119,000: Analyst Says $139,000 Could Be Next He invoked the lessons of the block-size war to explain why the system’s checks and balances are a feature, not a bug. “Ultimately, who is running consensus at Bitcoin?… The node clients are very valuable and they are in control versus miners and their self-interests. And that was a huge moment because it showed you decentralization was alive.” The line between hard-coded rules and socially enforced norms will always invite argument, he conceded, but in his view that process “future-proof[s] Bitcoin as the ultimate store of value.” Throughout, Park returned to flows. Gold’s flows, in his assessment, are being pulled by geopolitics and central-bank behavior—especially in Asia. Bitcoin’s flows will be pulled by institutional adoption and, potentially, by policy innovation that converts dormant balance-sheet strength into active demand. That is why he sees the assets as complements within the same macro problem set rather than rivals fighting for a single inflow. “Gold’s greatest cultural power is its impermanent fixture in our mindset and its durability for eons,” he said. Bitcoin, by contrast, offers sovereignty, portability, and programmability that younger cohorts find intuitive. “Young people are mentally more able to do things that older people can’t… the trend of young people understanding digital store of wealth… is the big picture.” I spoke with @dgt10011 on whether we should be worried about bitcoin lagging gold’s performance, durability of bitcoin vs gold, how to think about bitcoin as living software, and a new theme referencing the retardification of society. Enjoy! YouTube: https://t.co/kwCRnibemU… pic.twitter.com/0BckI7h7Eb — Anthony Pompliano ???? (@APompliano) October 3, 2025 If that generational shift meets a government-level balance-sheet pivot, Park believes the market structure can change quickly. “A trillion dollars of Bitcoin is hugely impactful,” he repeated, not because it solves everything overnight, but because it reorganizes incentives for issuers, custodians, and policymakers around a credibly scarce digital reserve. In that world, the present period—where gold leads and Bitcoin consolidates—may be remembered not as divergence, but as staging. “Bitcoin will catch up,” Park said. “These are ultimately driven by flows.” And if those flows are seeded by the very gold rally now commanding headlines, the supercycle label he’s willing to use may not be hyperbole, but simply a description of how compounding works when new liquidity finally meets hard caps. At press time, BTC traded at $120,313. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The time for optimistic predictions about the Bitcoin price reaching a new record is swiftly running out. Many analysts initially predicted that the market’s leading cryptocurrency would achieve a milestone of $200,000 this year.  However, as time progresses, these forecasts are being adjusted, with some traders on crypto prediction platforms lowering their price targets. Despite this, the potential for new all-time highs (ATHs) still lingers for the remainder of the year. Historical Data Points To New Records In Q4 Recently, the Bitcoin price once again surged past the significant $120,000 threshold, a level that has acted as a major resistance barrier over the past months. However, a sustained weekly close above this mark could set the stage for Bitcoin to reach new heights.  This price movement follows the release of softer private payrolls data, which has bolstered expectations for potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed).  Related Reading: Here’s Why Analysts Are Predicting A Massive Shiba Inu Price Rally In October According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders now estimate a 99% probability of a quarter-point reduction on October 29, a noticeable increase from 86% just a week earlier. As such, analysts from the Motley Fool remain optimistic, suggesting that the Bitcoin price could still achieve a price target of $140,000 by early 2026. Historical data supports this optimism, as Bitcoin has consistently shown strong performance in the fourth quarter (Q4).  Over the years from 2013 to 2024, the average Q4 return for Bitcoin has been an impressive 85%. Notably, in 2020, Bitcoin saw an increase of 168% in the final quarter, while in 2017, it skyrocketed by 215%. Even further back to 2013, Bitcoin posted an extraordinary return of 480%. Key Months For The Bitcoin Price Looking at the data, October and November have historically marked significant turning points for the Bitcoin price. November stands out as the most lucrative, with an average return of 46%, followed closely by October at 22%.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Calm Is Over — ‘Every Time This Happened, Price Went Vertical,’ Says Analyst Current predictions from prediction markets suggest that traders are granting Bitcoin a 63% chance of reclaiming its previous all-time high of $125,000 by the year’s end. The likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $130,000 by early 2026 stands at 47%, while the chance of hitting $140,000 has been estimated at 32%.  However, the window for achieving higher price levels is quickly closing, as evidenced by a mere 22% chance of reaching $150,000 this year and only a 5% chance of hitting $200,000. Despite the optimism, Motley Fool analysts have noted that market sentiment has soured since August. Prediction markets reflect this shift, indicating a 6% probability of Bitcoin slipping below $70,000. Moreover, there’s a 2% chance that the Bitcoin price could dip below $50,000. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

A cryptocurrency analyst has pointed out how Bitcoin could target $139,000 next, according to this on-chain pricing bands model. Bitcoin Has Broken Past 0.5 SD MVRV Deviation Band In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about where Bitcoin may be heading next based on the MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands. This pricing model is based on the popular Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, an indicator that compares the market cap of Bitcoin against its realized cap. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holder RVT Nears Cycle Lows: A Healthy Reset? The former represents the value currently held by the BTC investors, while the latter is a measure of the value that they initially put in. As such, the MVRV Ratio basically represents the profit-loss balance of the overall network. When the value of the metric is greater than 1, it means the market cap is greater than the realized cap and the average investor is sitting on an unrealized gain. On the other hand, it being under the threshold suggests the investors as a whole may be considered underwater. The MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands takes the mean of the MVRV Ratio and calculates standard deviations (SDs) from it. It then determines price levels that correspond to these standard deviations. Below is the chart for this Bitcoin pricing model shared by the analyst. As is visible in the graph, the mean of the MVRV Ratio is currently situated at $94,650 in the model. What this means is that if Bitcoin declines to this level, the MVRV Ratio would attain a value equal to its mean. During BTC’s recent decline, its price slipped below the +0.5 SD level of $116,700. With the latest recovery run, however, it has smashed past it. The next level on the model is the +1 SD, located at $138,800. Bitcoin has surged above this band twice in the current cycle so far, with a top following for the cryptocurrency shortly after each break. The explanation behind the trend could lie in the fact that investors become more likely to participate in profit-taking selloffs the higher their gains get. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Next Big Move? CryptoQuant Says These Alerts Are To Watch The MVRV Ratio being 1 SD above its mean corresponds to holder gains being notably higher than the norm. As such, it’s not surprising to see that BTC topped out shortly after crossing the threshold during both of the 2024 breakouts. It now remains to be seen whether this latest surge above the +0.5 SD level will lead Bitcoin to another retest of the +1 SD band, or if the run will fizzle out before it can happen. BTC Price Bitcoin has witnessed a recovery run of almost 7% over the last week that has taken its price to the $119,200 level. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

As Bitcoin (BTC) steadily makes its way toward its current all-time high (ATH) of $124,128, optimism seems to be returning to the market. However, fresh data from Binance shows that BTC’s gains barely outweigh the risks posed by the digital asset’s volatility. Bitcoin Maintaining A Risk-Reward Balance According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, latest data from Binance – the world’s leading cryptocurrency trading platform in terms of liquidity – suggests that BTC is currently maintaining a risk-reward balance. Related Reading: Bitcoin Funding Dynamics Shift As Binance Premium Signals Aggressive Longs Specifically, the Sharpe-like ratio on Binance currently stands at 0.18, a figure very close to neutral territory. To explain, a Sharpe-like ratio measures how much return an investment generates relative to the risk it takes, similar to the Sharpe ratio but often using adjusted benchmarks or risk measures. When the Sharpe-like ratio is above 0.5, investing in Bitcoin becomes attractive since the potential returns outweigh the risks. On the contrary, a negative reading of the ratio discourages investors from taking risks, since volatility exceeds returns. During 2024, when the cryptocurrency market was largely weak and volatile, the Sharpe-like ratio spent most of the time in the negative territory. In contrast, the ratio reached elevated levels, signaling a strong uptrend, at the beginning of 2025. Currently, the Bitcoin market is trading between the two extremes – the market is neither dangerous nor in a powerful uptrend. Notably, the market appears to be in a phase of equilibrium and accumulation, as it trades close to $119,000. Arab Chain added: The latest figures show that the 30-day average return stands at just 0.26%, highlighting that the market is not delivering outsized gains; investors entering now are likely to see only modest profits relative to risk. Meanwhile, 30-day volatility is around 1.37%, which indicates a natural, moderate level of price fluctuation – not excessively calm but not alarmingly unstable either. BTC Needs A Catalyst For Next Leg Up The CryptoQuant analyst added that the BTC market is currently awaiting a bullish catalyst or strong inflows to extend its uptrend. However, if the Sharpe-like ratio falls below zero again, then a period of price correction may follow. Related Reading: Bitcoin Momentum Indicator: Why 600,000 Transactions Threshold Matters Most On the flipside, the ratio sustaining above 0.5 for several days – coupled with a price breakout above the $120,000 to $122,000 range on healthy volume – would suggest a fresh upward trend for the top cryptocurrency by market cap. Recent on-chain data hints toward a potential rally setup for BTC. Notably, the short-term holder (STH) spent output profit ratio (SOPR) recently recovered slightly to 0.995. That said, Bitcoin must defend the important $90,000 support level to avoid entering a new bear market. At press time, BTC trades at $118,788, up 1.3% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Bitcoin has reclaimed key levels above the $118,000 mark, shifting momentum back in favor of the bulls after weeks of uncertainty. The breakout has reinvigorated sentiment across the market, with traders increasingly confident that BTC could be on the verge of a major move. Historically, October has been one of the strongest months for Bitcoin performance, and some analysts are already calling for a massive impulse that could carry the asset toward new highs. Related Reading: Metaplanet Expands Bitcoin Holdings To Over 30K BTC – Details What makes this rally especially notable is the underlying stability reflected in market data. Top analyst Axel Adler shared insights showing that Bitcoin currently sits in equilibrium, where buying and selling pressure are balanced. This condition often signals a healthy market structure, creating a strong base for potential upside. If momentum holds, the combination of bullish seasonal patterns and a stable equilibrium could fuel an aggressive continuation of the cycle. Still, analysts caution that the next few days will be critical. Reclaiming $118,000 is a strong first step, but Bitcoin will need to build support above this threshold to confirm the breakout and sustain its trajectory. With volatility returning, October may once again prove to be a decisive month for Bitcoin. Bitcoin Dynamics Align With A Key Indicator In a CryptoQuant report, Adler explains that Bitcoin’s current price behavior aligns closely with the STH-MVRV pricing corridor, a metric designed to reflect the average profitability of recent buyers. This corridor provides a framework for evaluating when short-term holders are in profit and more likely to sell, versus when they are at a loss and likely to capitulate. At present, Bitcoin sits comfortably within this range, suggesting a healthy equilibrium in market dynamics. The upper boundary of the corridor, defined as +1σ, currently hovers around $130,000. Adler notes that this level represents a zone where short-term holders typically begin to lock in profits more aggressively. Historically, price approaches to this boundary have triggered waves of selling, providing a natural cap until stronger demand emerges. Nevertheless, the existence of this upper bound gives the market a clear target, and if current dynamics persist, a move toward $130K appears increasingly realistic. Equally important is the baseline of the corridor, which reflects the average realized price of short-term holders. Since the beginning of 2024, Bitcoin has consistently held above this level (marked by the yellow line on the chart). This persistent strength signals sustained bullish sentiment, as short-term drops below the baseline have been quickly bought up, reflecting robust demand. In effect, Bitcoin remains in a state of equilibrium—neither overheated nor oversold—within the established volatility corridor. This balance, combined with the historical seasonality of October rallies and strong institutional flows, positions the market favorably for potential upside. If buying pressure continues and volatility contracts, the probability of an advance toward the $130K zone becomes a tangible scenario in the weeks ahead. Related Reading: Galaxy’s Digital Bitcoin Sales Continue: 1,190 Bitcoin Moves To Binance Bitcoin Faces Resistance After A Rally Bitcoin is trading around $118,800 on the 12-hour chart, extending its breakout from earlier this week. Price has surged past the key $117,500 resistance, a level that capped rallies throughout September, and is now testing the $119,000–$120,000 area. This zone represents the final hurdle before a potential retest of summer highs near $125,000. The moving averages show improving momentum. BTC has reclaimed the 50-period (blue) and 100-period (green) moving averages with strong follow-through, turning them into short-term support zones around $114,000–$115,000. Meanwhile, the 200-period (red) moving average continues to rise from below, reinforcing the longer-term bullish trend. The decisive break above multiple averages in just a few sessions highlights the strength of buyer conviction. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Long: Bybit Traders Push BTC Taker Buy/Sell Ratio Above 24 However, the chart also suggests that Bitcoin is entering overextended territory in the short term. After four consecutive bullish candles, a period of consolidation around $118,000–$119,000 would not be surprising. A failure to hold above $117,500 could see a pullback toward $115,000, while sustained buying could confirm a path to $120,000 and beyond. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

USDT issuer Tether has added a significant amount of Bitcoin to close out the third quarter, a development that has caught the attention of the crypto community. Tether’s CEO, Paolo Ardoino, also confirmed this purchase, as the company ranks among the largest BTC treasury companies.  Tether Adds 8,889 BTC To Bitcoin Holdings Arkham data shows that Tether bought 8,889 BTC for $1 billion, with the coins transferred from Bitfinex’s hot wallet to the USDT issuer’s Bitcoin reserves wallet. The company now holds 86,335 BTC, which is valued at $10.23 billion. Ardoino also confirmed the purchase in an X post, highlighting their effort to keep accumulating BTC.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Reaches ‘Critical Junction’: How A Rally To $139,000 Would Play Out BitInfoCharts data shows that Tether is currently one of the largest Bitcoin holders, controlling 0.4% of the flagship crypto’s supply. Meanwhile, based on BitcoinTreasuries data, the USDT issuer will rank as the second-largest BTC treasury company, just behind Michael Saylor’s Strategy.   Notably, Tether also has more Bitcoin exposure through its stake in Twenty One Capital (XXI), which is currently the third largest BTC treasury company, behind Strategy and Mara Holdings. XXI holds 43,514 BTC on its balance sheet, some of which it received from Tether as part of the USDT issuer’s investment.  Meanwhile, Tether has made it clear that it intends to continue buying as much Bitcoin as possible. Ardoino stated last month that while the world continues to become darker, they will continue to invest part of their profits in safe assets like BTC, gold, and land. This came as he clarified that his company wasn’t selling Bitcoin to buy more gold but was instead buying both assets for their reserves.  It is worth mentioning that Tether generates the most revenue among crypto protocols. DeFiLlama data shows that the stablecoin issuer has earned $22.27 million in revenue in the last 24 hours and $155.27 million in the last seven days. As such, the firm makes enough profits to keep buying BTC.  The Bottom For BTC Notably, Tether’s latest Bitcoin purchase came just as the BTC price bottomed out. The USDT issuer had bought these coins when the flagship crypto was trading at around $110,000. Since then, BTC has staged a parabolic rally, beginning this month with a gain of around 6%. Bitcoin had dropped to as low as $108,000 about a week ago.  Related Reading: These Analysts Predicted The Bitcoin Price Crash And Their Forecasts Say It’s Not Over Bitcoin is expected to record significant gains this month based on historical data. October is its second-best performing month, recording average gains of 20% over the years. Factors like a Fed rate cut could also help spark massive gains for the flagship crypto.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $118,400, up over 3% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.  Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is sitting at the “lowest amount of volatility of all time” on the monthly chart, and that historically precedes the cycle’s most forceful upside, according to crypto analyst Kevin (Kev Capital TA). In an October 1 video analysis, Kevin tied an all-time low in the Bollinger Bands Width (BBW) to a long-running pattern across prior cycles and argued that the setup into Q4 leaves “no excuses” for the market not to push higher if key supports hold and the macro backdrop stays benign. Kevin builds his case around two higher-timeframe indicators: the monthly BBW and the monthly RSI. BBW tracks the distance between the Bollinger Bands rather than plotting the bands themselves; compressed width signals historically low realized volatility and the potential for sharp expansion. “We are at the lowest Bollinger Band width we have ever been at in Bitcoin history,” he said, calling it an inflection that has repeatedly aligned with outsized trend moves. He pairs that with a monthly RSI that topped in prior blow-off phases and is currently consolidating in what he describes as a bull-flag structure. “Anytime the Bollinger bandwidth percentage gets as low as it is right now… every single time in history on the monthly time frame, we have experienced massive moves higher in the market,” he argued. To illustrate the cycle rhyme, Kevin pointed to late 2013 and 2017, when monthly RSI peaked around 96 and 95 respectively while BBW expanded into cycle tops after earlier troughs in volatility. In the subsequent bear-market basing phases, he says BBW fell to cycle lows before fresh expansions began. In the most recent cycle run-up, he characterizes Q4 2023 into March 2024 as the “real rally,” noting that RSI topped near 76 and has since been coiling with “lower highs and higher lows on the monthly RSI… very, very nice looking.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Will Go To $1 Million, Telegram Founder Durov Predicts The analyst underlined a key conditional: the technical structure only resolves bullish if Bitcoin preserves its higher-timeframe support. He cites the weekly “bull market support band” and nearby horizontal levels as the line in the sand. “As long as Bitcoin can hold key levels, that being the weekly bull market support band, which currently sits at 109.2K, [and] the 106.8K level, then there’s no excuses as to why Bitcoin should not be able to press higher in quarter four,” he said. What To Watch Now For Bitcoin Beyond chart structure, Kevin layered in macro and on-chain context as corroborating, not leading, evidence. On macro, his base case is that the policy environment is turning supportive: “We have stable inflation, pretty much flatlined… a weakening jobs market, but not cratering… steady GDP growth, and we have a Fed who’s looking to ease.” Referencing weaker-than-expected ADP employment data and recent FOMC signaling, he added: “We have a rate cut projected for October… for December… and [possibly] January,” and suggested the Fed’s quantitative tightening could approach an end as bank reserves tighten. He was explicit that the path depends on those conditions persisting: “As long as our macroeconomic landscape here in the US remains favorable… the pathway is laid for crypto to go higher in Q4.” On valuation and positioning, Kevin turned to a logarithmic regression model of total crypto market capitalization and a “Bitcoin risk metric.” He said total market cap has not yet exceeded his model’s fair-value trendline this cycle—placing fair value at about $4.38 trillion versus roughly $4 trillion for the current reading in his framework—and argued that previous cycle-defining blow-offs began only after crossing above fair value. Related Reading: Galaxy’s Digital Bitcoin Sales Continue: 1,190 Bitcoin Moves To Binance “Every single time… we finally broke past the fair value logarithmic regression line, you have seen your biggest moves of the cycle,” he said. His risk metric, color-coded from low to high, currently sits near 0.49–0.50 by his count, well below the 0.8–0.9 “red” zone he associates with durable tops. “Not once this entire cycle has Bitcoin hit basically the red risk level,” he noted, adding that monthly RSI near the high-60s/low-70s is “not seeing parabolic price action… not seeing insane euphoria.” Exchange behavior is another pillar of his non-top thesis. In prior cycle peaks, he said, net flows of BTC to exchanges surged as participants prepared to sell. “Not only is that not occurring, but net flows are going off of exchanges,” he said. “That is not cycle top behavior. That is accumulation behavior.” The combination—compressed monthly volatility, consolidating momentum, sub-threshold risk, and outflows—leads him to a single conclusion: “There is major volatility coming. If anything, it’s starting now.” Kevin also acknowledged uncertainties around near-term US economic prints and even government operations, but he returned to the core of his method: synthesizing macro, technicals, and on-chain into a unified cycle view. “We don’t lean in one direction… We put it all together,” he said. Under that blended framework, he contends, calling a cycle top at current levels would “go against every single piece of information we have ever used in the past to determine cycle tops,” and would force a rethink of the model only if the market proves it wrong. The battle lines, in his telling, are clear. Hold the weekly bands around $109.2K and $106.8K, keep the macro trajectory supportive, and the historical pattern of BBW compression resolving in a powerful, final upside leg should play out as Q4 progresses. Or, as Kevin put it in the line that defined his thesis: “Every time this happened, price went vertical.” At press time, BTC traded at $118,811. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin short-term holder RVT has plummeted recently. Here’s what history suggests could happen next for BTC. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Value RVT Is Approaching Cycle Lows In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has shared the latest trend in the Bitcoin Realized Value RVT of the short-term holders. The Realized Value RVT is an oscillator that measures the ratio between the sum of profits and losses being realized by BTC investors, and the total transfer volume on the network. In simple terms, what the metric tells us about is whether holders are participating in a high or low amount of profit-taking/loss-taking compared to the value being shifted around on the blockchain. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Next Big Move? CryptoQuant Says These Alerts Are To Watch In the context of the current topic, the version of the indicator that’s of interest is the one specifically for short-term holders (STHs), investors who purchased their Bitcoin during the past 155 days. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Realized Value RVT for the STHs over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH Realized Value RVT has witnessed a decline recently, implying the investors have been realizing a lower amount of profit/loss compared to the volume. The metric’s recent decline has been so drastic that it has taken its value near cyclical lows. Such a trend suggests the BTC network is currently observing most of its coins moving at or near break-even. “Historically, such resets often align with periods of market detox, helping build a foundation for more durable recoveries,” explains the analytics firm. From the chart, it’s visible that the market saw similar STH Realized Value RVT values during the mid-2024 and early-2025 lows. In 2023, however, the indicator had to sink even lower before Bitcoin regained its footing. It now remains to be seen whether the latest low levels of STH Realized Value RVT mean the cryptocurrency has already bottomed, or if the metric will have to go further lower. Related Reading: Cardano Whale Makes $54 Million Coinbase Outflow: Sign Of Dip Buying? Another healthy development for BTC could perhaps be the reversal in its market cap dominance, as Glassnode has pointed out in another X post. From the chart, it’s visible that the Bitcoin dominance declined to 57% earlier, but it has since seen a rebound back to 59%. “This mean reversion suggests a healthier market structure, as BTC-led rallies have historically proven more sustainable than those driven by altcoins,” notes the analytics firm. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $117,000, up 3% over the last week. The trend in the price of the coin over the last five days | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) witnessed a slight surge earlier today, climbing from $113,000 to around $117,000 at the time of writing, in contrast to expectations of several crypto analysts who were predicting a decline in risk-on assets due to the US government shutdown. Bitcoin Rises Despite US Government Shutdown The US federal government shut down at midnight on September 30, as President Donald Trump and Congress failed to reach a deal on funding. Specifically, the two camps were at odds over enhanced Obamacare subsidies, with neither party willing to take the blame. Related Reading: Bitcoin Momentum Indicator: Why 600,000 Transactions Threshold Matters Most However, Bitcoin made a surprise move to the upside despite the uncertain environment created by the US government shutdown, recording strong gains earlier today. CryptoQuant analyst Kripto Mevsimi stated that September saw deeper losses among short-term holders (STH), as their Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) fell as low as 0.992. As a result, most of September was marked by STH continuing to sell their BTC holdings at a loss. However, the metric recovered slightly to 0.995, although it is still below August’s reading of 0.998. The current STH-SOPR reading is showing signs of stabilization after a period of depression. It is interesting to note the timing of this recovery, as it occurred at a time when BTC is trading in the high $110,000 range, slightly below a heavy resistance zone. Past data shows two potential scenarios that can happen following such a reset in the STH-SOPR. First, it could be early warning signs of a weakening momentum for BTC, as extended loss realization can precede corrective phases where weak hands capitulate. The other, more bullish scenario, is that it could be a healthy reset. Quick absorption of realized losses often paves the way for more sustainable rallies, which could catapult BTC to new all-time highs (ATH) in the near term. The CryptoQuant analyst added: With BTC consolidating under resistance, this rebound in STH-SOPR is a key barometer of market health. If buyers continue to absorb weak-hand selling, it could mirror past resets that paved the way for the next leg higher. Will BTC Decline In Q4 2025? While the dwindling active circulating supply of Bitcoin offers some hope to the bulls, others are not as optimistic. According to recent analysis by fellow CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler, demand for BTC cooled after it failed to hold above $115,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Go To Zero, Hedge Fund CEO Warns Meanwhile, crypto analyst Doctor Profit recently remarked that BTC is likely to experience another 20% decline from its current price, reaching his projected target range between $90,000 – $94,000. At press time, BTC trades at $117,226, up 3.5% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Bitcoin blasted through $116,000 with a 3% daily gain even as the U.S. government officially entered shutdown, its first since 2018. The political stalemate over health-care funding has 750,000 federal workers on furlough and could cost about $400 million per day, yet risk assets shook off early nerves. Related Reading: Tether Scoops $1 Billion In Bitcoin, Strengthening $10-B Stockpile Crypto’s total market cap rose 3% to $4.09T, with Bitcoin leading and dominance climbing from 57% to 59%, a structure analysts say tends to produce more durable rallies than altcoin-led surges. Gold’s sprint to fresh records near $3,875–$3,895/oz underlined the flight-to-safety backdrop, but BTC’s two-day rebound from $112,000 suggests buyers are treating macro uncertainty as a dip-buying opportunity. BTC's price trends to the upside on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview Bitcoin ETF Inflows, “Uptober” Tailwinds, and a Bull-Flag Setup Fueling the rally, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $3.53 billion in net inflows in September, topped by $429.9 million on Sept. 30 (BlackRock, Ark, Fidelity leading). On-chain and derivatives data indicate healthy conditions as leverage resets after the decline, funding levels normalize, and open interest remains steady, allowing BTC to resume its upward trend. Technical analysts point to a multi-week bull flag with the price now pushing against the upper boundary, mirroring patterns seen before previous impulsive moves. Seasonality also favors the market, with “Uptober” traditionally showing strong performance after a positive September close. Telegram’s Pavel Durov even revived long-term optimism, reaffirming a $1 million BTC target driven by fixed supply versus money printing, sentiment often seen during mid-cycle expansions. Bitcoin’s Key Levels to Watch Out In the near term, Bitcoin resistance is around $117,500. A clear reclaim and daily close above this level could pave the way toward $119,300–$120,300, with a psychological target near $ 120,000. Order-book heatmaps indicate significant short liquidity between $118,000 and $119,000 (about $7 billion), which could trigger a squeeze if this level is broken. On the downside, bulls aim to defend the $114,800–$115,200 zone first, then the $112,000 pivot identified before the bounce; below that, there’s a larger liquidity pocket at $107,000–$108,000 (roughly $8 billion in long liquidations). Related Reading: Did Bitcoin Top? Top Trader Warns Of Brutal $98,000 Liquidity Sweep Analysts MN van de Poppe, Ted Pillows, and Daan Crypto Trades all agree on the same strategy: hold $112,000, break above $117,500, and then let momentum push toward new highs into Q4. Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin is now back trading above $115,000, but the recovery comes with a shadow that cannot be ignored. A new gap opened on the CME Bitcoin futures chart, and while the spot market has pushed higher since then, the presence of this gap opens up a bearish scenario. These gaps have a history of pulling Bitcoin back down to fill them, and the most recent one opens up questions about how long the current bullish momentum can last. Bitcoin Opens Up Huge CME Gap Crypto analyst Daan Crypto noted on the social media platform X how Bitcoin opened the week with a huge CME gap that has continued higher since the futures open. This gap is important, as it has been a while since Bitcoin opened with such a huge gap. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Forms Bearish Evening Star Pattern On Weekly Chart, But Can Price Go Below $100,000? As shown in the chart image below, this CME gap is between $110,000 and $111,300. Gaps on CME futures have a tendency to close fairly quickly, meaning that Bitcoin often retraces to the level of the gap before resuming its trend. If that happens this time, the short-term structure of Bitcoin’s price action could deteriorate into a bearish momentum.  However, Daan also noted that this gap should not be considered in play unless Bitcoin drops below $111,000. But if that happens, the futures chart could drag spot prices lower and turn recent strength into weakness. What Does This Mean For Bitcoin? A CME gap occurs because the Chicago Mercantile Exchange does not trade over the weekend, unlike the spot Bitcoin market, which operates 24/7. When Bitcoin makes a big move on Saturday or Sunday, CME futures reopen on Sunday evening at a different level than they closed on Friday, and this leaves an empty gap on the price chart.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run Is Over? These Signals Show Where The Market Is At It’s common knowledge that Bitcoin tends to fill these gaps by returning to the level of the gap before continuing in its trend. If Bitcoin retraces to close this latest gap between the $110,000 to $111,000 range, it would erase the recovery that pushed it to $115,000 and bring the price back into a zone of uncertainty. According to Daan Crypto, if that were to happen here, then the entire structure would look pretty bad in the short term. However, this might be one of those very few gaps that never closes or not until months later. This would most likely be the case, unless Bitcoin breaks below $111,000. A dip below $111,000 could ultimately see Bitcoin losing the $110,000 price level again.  If Bitcoin can stay above $115,000 and there’s enough buying pressure, then the gap can be ignored in the short term. The next test will be whether buyers can sustain the recently found momentum and push towards $120,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $116,380, up by 1.4% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin surged past the $115,000 level just a few hours ago, sparking speculation among investors about the potential for further upside. The move comes after weeks of tight consolidation that began in July, a period marked by choppy trading and indecision. Now, with momentum showing signs of returning, many analysts believe the next breakout could be aggressive, setting the tone for the final quarter of the year. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Long: Bybit Traders Push BTC Taker Buy/Sell Ratio Above 24 The reclaim of $115,000 has reignited bullish sentiment, with traders closely watching whether Bitcoin can build a base above this threshold and aim for the next major resistance at $117,500. Historically, prolonged consolidation phases have often preceded strong directional moves, and the current setup suggests that volatility could soon accelerate. Adding weight to the bullish narrative, fresh data reveals that Metaplanet has expanded its Bitcoin treasury once again. The firm added 5,268 BTC to its holdings, bringing its total stash to 30,823 BTC. This significant purchase highlights growing institutional conviction in Bitcoin, even as prices remain locked in a range. Metaplanet Becomes 4th Largest Bitcoin Holder Top analyst Maartunn highlighted that Metaplanet’s latest purchase has further cemented its position among the largest Bitcoin holders in the world. With the addition of 5,268 BTC this week, Metaplanet’s treasury now stands at 30,823 BTC. This accumulation places the firm as the 4th largest corporate Bitcoin holder, trailing only industry giants such as Strategy (prev. MicroStrategy) and a few other leading institutions. The move underscores the growing appetite for Bitcoin among companies looking to diversify reserves and position themselves ahead of what many see as a long-term adoption cycle. This development comes at a crucial time for the market. Bitcoin has recently reclaimed the $115,000 level, sparking fresh optimism after months of consolidation. Analysts point out that institutional moves like Metaplanet’s provide strong underlying support, reinforcing the argument that Bitcoin remains attractive even at elevated prices. The coming days will be critical, as several analysts expect Bitcoin to continue pushing upward through October. Historically, this month has delivered some of the strongest rallies for BTC, earning the nickname “Uptober” within the community. If the pattern repeats, Metaplanet’s accumulation could prove to be well-timed, fueling further confidence in the asset. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders At Cost Basis: SOPR At 1 Signals Market Equilibrium BTC Challenges Key Resistance Bitcoin is trading near $116,200 after staging a sharp recovery from recent lows around $109,000. On the daily chart, the price has reclaimed both the 50-day (blue) and 100-day (green) moving averages, signaling renewed strength from buyers. This rebound has put Bitcoin within striking distance of the $117,500 resistance zone, highlighted in yellow, which has repeatedly capped rallies since July. A decisive breakout above this level would represent a major shift in momentum, potentially opening the path toward $120,000 and retests of the late-summer highs above $125,000. The fact that BTC has recovered so quickly from last week’s weakness underscores strong demand at lower levels. Related Reading: Bitcoin Retail Demand Retreats: 30D Change Falls To Lowest Level Since July However, the market is not free of risk. The $117,500 level remains a critical barrier, and failure to clear it could invite profit-taking that pulls the price back toward $114,000 or even $112,000. The 200-day moving average (red), currently trending near $105,000, continues to provide a deeper layer of support that reinforces the broader uptrend. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, has ignited a notable recovery in the broader cryptocurrency market, recording a 5% gain during Wednesday’s trading session to recover the $117,000 mark.  This momentum has positively impacted major altcoins, including Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Solana (SOL), and Binance Coin (BNB), which have seen average increases of around 3% in what may signal the onset of a new altcoin season. Crypto Prices Surge Amidst US Government Shutdown The surge in crypto prices coincided with political developments as the US Senate’s failure to pass a temporary funding bill resulted in a government shutdown shortly after midnight on Wednesday. Related Reading: Did Bitcoin Top? Top Trader Warns Of Brutal $98,000 Liquidity Sweep Such uncertainty often leads investors to seek alternatives to the US dollar, and cryptocurrencies are increasingly viewed as a hedge against economic instability. On Wednesday, the dollar remained stable against a basket of other currencies, further bolstering the appeal of digital assets. Historically, October has been a favorable month for Bitcoin, with the cryptocurrency finishing in positive territory 10 out of the past 12 years. Joel Kruger from LMAX Group also noted that Q4 has consistently been the strongest seasonal period for cryptocurrencies, adding to the bullish sentiment. However, not all analysts share the same optimistic outlook.  Extended Bull Cycle For Bitcoin? Ash Crypto expressed caution, suggesting that the current rally might be a precursor to a more significant downturn, predicting a potential drop that could see Bitcoin retrace to around $106,000 and Ethereum to near $3,800.  This anticipated correction, he argues, could liquidate overly optimistic positions, particularly among retail investors. He forecasts that this phase of uncertainty could persist until mid-October, potentially leading to a market rebound when bearish sentiment peaks. Related Reading: XRP Flips Green For First Time Since 2017, Pundit Predicts 500% Rally Conversely, Lark Davis has indicated a more bullish long-term perspective, suggesting that the current cycle may extend well into 2026 rather than peaking in the fourth quarter of the year as traditionally expected.  The general sentiment remains that if the market can navigate through the short-term fluctuations, a substantial rally could occur, potentially driving Bitcoin to prices between $150,000 and $180,000, with Ethereum reaching between $8,000 and $12,000.  According to Davis, such a scenario, in which could result in a major 53% and 200% for BTC and ETH respectively, could catalyze a significant altcoin season, with some assets potentially increasing in value by 10 to 50 times within just a few months. When writing, Bitcoin trades at $117,130, further posting gains of nearly 8% on the monthly time frame. This positions the market’s leading cryptocurrency just 5.7% below its all-time high, currently at $124,100, Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

The recent technical picture for Bitcoin presents a tug-of-war between short-term momentum and macro necessity. While the bulls are aggressively defending support and pushing toward the $117,000 resistance area, the yet-to-be-filled CME gap hangs over the market. This historical pattern suggests that although the price action is bullish, a mandatory downside move may be required to reset the chart before the target can truly be breached. Gap-Filling Before The Next Big Rally Ezy Bitcoin, in a recent short-term market outlook shared on X, explained that Bitcoin may need to close an existing gap before it can build momentum for its next major rally. However, such a move should not be seen as a weakness but rather as a healthy reset, one that could set the stage for a stronger push upward. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Bounces Higher – Clears Resistance, But Next Barrier Still Looms He referenced the Bitcoin CME Futures chart, where the CrossX indicator highlights unfilled gaps that often act like magnets for price action. Historically, Bitcoin has shown a tendency to revisit these areas before resuming its climb, making them a key part of the near-term structure. Over the last five months, Ezy Bitcoin has noted every single gap has been filled, while maintaining a flawless 100% success rate. This consistency adds weight to the likelihood of a short-term retracement before another rally begins, reinforcing his expectation that the pattern will hold. With that in mind, he concluded that a minor pullback could create a valuable opportunity to accumulate more Bitcoin. Rather than fearing a dip, traders and investors might see it as an entry point before the next strong upward move. Bitcoin Bulls Eye Recovery Momentum Despite Market Pressure According to the latest update from Crypto VIP Signal, Bitcoin demonstrated a rapid recovery after experiencing a sharp drop. The price briefly fell below the $113,000 mark but quickly managed to bounce back. This swift bounce from this level signals that buyers remain active and willing to step in at key zones, preventing any deeper correction for now.  Related Reading: Bitcoin’s $90,000 Level Holds Key To Preventing A New Bear Market, Top Analyst Says Currently, the price is moving upward again, and the immediate challenge is defined by a narrow resistance zone between $114,600 and $114,800. This range is acting as a local ceiling where selling pressure is likely to be concentrated. Overcoming this level is crucial for the continuation of the bullish move. Looking ahead, Crypto VIP Signal emphasized that a successful breakout above the $114,600–$114,800 resistance will open up the path to significantly higher targets between the $116,000 and $117,000 area. A move into this range would solidify the positive momentum and confirm that the recent drop was merely a brief shakeout, allowing the rally to continue. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Crypto analyst Trader Mayne is cautioning that Bitcoin may be setting up for a sharper drawdown before resuming its broader uptrend into year-end, arguing that a “$98,000 weekly liquidity level” sits uncollected below price and could be targeted early in October. Two Price Scenarios For Bitcoin In a video analysis posted on September 30 titled “Did Bitcoin Just Top? The Signal Everyone’s Ignoring…,”Mayne outlined a two-track playbook: a tactical long on a lower-timeframe liquidity sweep that could precede a deeper correction, and, if that setup fails, a decisive flush that takes out $98,000 before a fourth-quarter continuation higher. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders At Cost Basis: SOPR At 1 Signals Market Equilibrium “TLDR — I think we are due for a larger correction soon, to take out the $98k weekly liquidity level,” Mayne wrote in his teaser via X, adding that “there may be a short term long set up that precedes that correction” and that he still expects higher prices in Q4, making “an early dump…a buying opp.”   On Bitcoin’s structure, Mayne said the market has respected his recent roadmap: a push up, a retest, and now a decision point defined by higher-timeframe “breaker” levels and intraweek lows. “We had the daily flip bullish on Bitcoin, right? We closed above the breaker,” he said, noting that while the monthly chart is also constructive, “the weekly chart is technically bearish.” With two higher timeframes leaning bullish against a soft weekly, he is looking to the four-hour chart to synchronize the next trade. “If the H4 is bullish, which it is, if I take a setup on some sort of liquidity run on the H4, that’s going to sync me back up with the daily at least.” Related Reading: Will October Crown Bitcoin Or Break It? Key Levels In Play The immediate trigger, in his view, is a sweep of local lows to tighten risk rather than “aping” into a broad retest with a wide invalidation. “I would like to see one of these H4 little liquidity pools here get run and then…that becomes my setup and my stop is tight. I have clear targets over here,” he explained. He highlighted “Monday’s low” as a relevant pivot that, if taken, could produce a mean-reversion long into a nearby daily bearish breaker and prior highs. “Maybe we even run this first, right? And then get the pullback. But either way, that’s what I’m looking for on Bitcoin here.” Mayne underscored that invalidation is non-negotiable. If price loses the intraweek baseline on a closing basis, he abandons longs and prepares for a larger washout. “If Bitcoin gets an H4 close below here…we’ll probably nuke to $98,000,” he said, tying the trigger to a failure back below Monday’s low and the range floor. In other words, the same liquidity dynamics he seeks to exploit for a tactical bounce could, if they break, accelerate the “$98k” clean-out he believes the weekly chart still “owes.” One Last Dip Before Q4 Fireworks He mapped the Ethereum structure as analogous, with the daily and 12-hour trends flipping constructive into a weekly order block, but with the same need for a precise entry via a low-timeframe liquidity grab. “ETH very similar, right? We had the daily flip bullish…we’ve got the breaker. It’s retesting this order block here,” he said. He described an H12/weekly combination where a “weekly SFP” and “structure break” are in motion, but stressed placement of the stop remains “tricky” unless a Monday-low sweep offers a cleaner trigger. “To me, ETH looks good here to fill in some of this…assuming we can get that setup,” he added. The conditional nature of the plan is central. Mayne is willing to attempt continuation longs into nearby resistance if and only if the market prints the sweep that tightens his invalidation. Failing that, he expects downside first. “If we don’t get this little setup to here, I think there’s a very strong chance that we’re going to, you know, at least do one of these, right? and nuke this liquidity here and then get the real move up,” he said. He reiterated the timeframe check: “If we get an H4 close below Monday’s low [near $111,000]…all bets are off and we might actually start the month of October down.” Despite the caution, the macro-tactical stance remains buy-the-dip for Q4. Mayne repeatedly framed any early-October weakness as an opportunity rather than the start of a cyclical top. “Ultimately, I’m of the mindset that…this dip that may come, whether it’s from right here or after a push higher…is a dip we want to buy ’cause we’re in the endgame here,” he said. “It’s October, November, December. We’re in Q4… I believe we trade higher in Q4.” At press time, BTC traded at $116,238. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has reclaimed the $115,000 level, restoring momentum after weeks of uncertainty and signaling that bulls are regaining strength. The move comes as traders push back against selling pressure, with renewed optimism spreading across the market. For many, the rebound highlights Bitcoin’s resilience and its ability to bounce after testing key support levels. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Long: Bybit Traders Push BTC Taker Buy/Sell Ratio Above 24 Yet, not everyone feels convinced. Several analysts warn that despite the recent upside, Bitcoin may still face the risk of a deeper correction. The recovery looks promising, but the broader structure remains fragile, and cautious voices continue to dominate discussions. A failure to hold above $115,000 could once again expose the market to volatility and downside pressure. Adding another layer of concern, key data shows that Galaxy Digital’s Bitcoin sales remain ongoing. These sales, taking place even as Bitcoin rises, highlight the complex dynamics at play and temper the optimism around the recent rally. Galaxy Sales Weigh On Bitcoin Top analyst Darkfost shared fresh data that revealed a significant move in Bitcoin markets yesterday. According to him, 1,190 BTC were sent mainly to Binance, most likely to be sold. At current prices, that transaction represents more than $135 million worth of Bitcoin, underscoring that large-scale institutional selling continues even as bulls fight to sustain momentum above $115,000. Such transfers often signal that sellers, in this case Galaxy Digital, are actively reducing exposure, which can pressure the market during sensitive periods. While Bitcoin has managed to rebound from its recent lows near $108,000, these heavy sales create an overhang of supply that traders must absorb before a convincing uptrend can take hold. The timing adds even more weight, as Bitcoin enters a new stage marked by macro uncertainty. The looming US government shutdown now stands as one of the biggest risk factors for global markets. Political deadlock in Washington threatens to disrupt financial stability and could trigger volatility across equities, bonds, and digital assets. For Bitcoin, this situation creates both risk and opportunity: on one hand, fear-driven selling could drag prices lower; on the other, Bitcoin’s role as a hedge may attract inflows from investors seeking protection. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders At Cost Basis: SOPR At 1 Signals Mareket Equilibrium BTC Approaches Resistance After Strong Rebound Bitcoin is trading near $116,200 after a sharp rebound from last week’s lows around $109,000. The 8-hour chart highlights renewed bullish momentum, with price now pressing toward the key resistance zone at $117,500. This level has repeatedly capped rallies since late August, making it the line to watch for confirmation of a broader breakout. The recent move higher also pushed BTC back above its 50-period (blue) and 100-period (green) moving averages, both of which had previously acted as resistance. The price is now consolidating above these levels, showing that bulls are regaining short-term control. However, the 200-period moving average (red) sits just overhead near $115,000, and Bitcoin has only just cleared it — leaving the breakout unconfirmed. Related Reading: Bitcoin Retail Demand Retreats: 30D Change Falls To Lowest Level Since July Momentum remains constructive, but the market still faces a pivotal test. A decisive close above $117,500 could invite stronger buying pressure, opening the door for a run toward $120,000 and potentially retesting the yearly highs near $125,000. Conversely, rejection at this level could trigger profit-taking, dragging the price back toward $114,000 or even $112,000. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Pavel Durov, the founder and CEO of Telegram, used a wide-ranging conversation on the Lex Fridman Podcast to make one of his clearest long-term calls on Bitcoin yet: “I believe it will come to a point when Bitcoin is worth $1 million.” The remarks appear on Fridman’s newly released episode with Durov. Why Bitcoin Will Reach $1 Million: Pavel Durov Pressed by Fridman on why he kept accumulating Bitcoin and whether he sees further upside, Durov traced his conviction to the asset’s earliest days and to its monetary design. “I was a big believer in Bitcoin since more or less the start of it,” he said, recalling that he bought “my first few thousand of Bitcoin in 2013,” around “$700 per Bitcoin,” and refused to sell even as the price later fell toward $300. Related Reading: Will October Crown Bitcoin Or Break It? Key Levels In Play “And my response to them was, I don’t care. I’m not going to sell it. I believe in this thing.” For Durov, the crux is Bitcoin’s censorship resistance and predictable issuance: “Nobody can confiscate your Bitcoin from you. Nobody can censor you for political reasons. This is the ultimate means of exchange… The governments keep printing money like no tomorrow. Nobody’s printing Bitcoin. There is a predictable inflation and then it stops at a certain point. Bitcoin is here to stay.” Durov also drew a sharp line between his personal finances and Telegram’s operating economics, saying Bitcoin appreciation has effectively financed his lifestyle, not profits from the company. “Telegram is a money losing operation for me personally. Bitcoin is something that allowed me to stay afloat,” he noted, adding that his long-term horizon on the asset has not changed since his early purchases more than a decade ago. The timing of Durov’s $1 million thesis is notable given Telegram’s expanding role at crypto’s consumer edge. The company has progressively integrated the TON ecosystem into its product and business model, committing to Toncoin-based ad payments and revenue sharing for channel owners and opening its advertising platform to a broad set of markets. That TON-denominated ad infrastructure has been credited with catalyzing user and developer activity across Telegram’s mini-app economy. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders At Cost Basis: SOPR At 1 Signals Mareket Equilibrium On the wallet side, Telegram’s crypto functionality—first rolled out internationally—extended to the United States in July 2025, with the TON community’s wallet mini-app enabling in-app transfers and payments. The US expansion followed what Telegram described as nine-figure global wallet activation metrics in 2024, underscoring the scale of a potential distribution channel for on-chain payments and games. As for the $1 million number itself, Durov anchored it in supply discipline and fiat debasement rather than in short-term market catalysts. His reasoning tracks with hard-cap arguments long advanced by Bitcoin’s most committed holders: issuance is programmatic and terminal, while fiscal and monetary expansion remains discretionary. JUST IN: Telegram CEO says he thinks Bitcoin will go to $1,000,000 ???? “The governments keeps printing money like no tomorrow. Nobody is printing bitcoin.” ???? pic.twitter.com/AiDwr7xVkQ — Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) September 30, 2025 Whether that macro narrative alone can deliver seven-figure prices is a market question; what Durov made clear is that his own positioning reflects a decade of conviction. “Just look at the trends,” he told Fridman. “Bitcoin is here to stay. All the fiat currencies remain to be seen.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $114,372. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has revealed the five key Bitcoin on-chain alerts that could be to keep an eye on in the coming week. Bitcoin Is Observing Developments On These Metrics In a new thread on X, CryptoQuant has discussed about some Bitcoin on-chain alerts that could be to watch amid the consolidation phase in the cryptocurrency’s price. Related Reading: Cardano Whale Makes $54 Million Coinbase Outflow: Sign Of Dip Buying? The first indicator shared by the analytics firm is the 60-day change in the market cap of USDT, the number one stablecoin. As is visible in the above chart, the 60-day change in the USDT market cap has continued to sit at a notable positive level recently, implying the stablecoin has been witnessing growth. Stablecoins are one of the main inlets of capital into the cryptocurrency sector, so growth in them can generally be a positive sign. Currently, the 60-day change in the USDT market cap has a value of $10 billion. “This is a clear sign of fresh liquidity entering the market,” notes CryptoQuant. Another stablecoins-related indicator that can be relevant for Bitcoin is the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR), which measures the ratio between the market cap of BTC and combined that of all stables. A low value in the indicator can prove to be a bullish sign, as it implies investor purchasing power in the form of stablecoins is high compared to the Bitcoin market cap. From the below chart, it’s apparent that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of the BTC SSR stands at a value of 21 right now, which is considered to be inside the “buy” territory. Another bullish sign that’s developing for Bitcoin is in the Accumulator Address Demand, an indicator that measures the demand that’s coming from addresses that have zero history of selling the cryptocurrency. These perennial HODLers now own 298,000 BTC, which is a new record. A metric that’s still inside the bearish zone, however, is the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP). This metric keeps track of the BTC flows happening between spot and derivatives exchanges. The indicator has been following a downtrend during the past few months, which is considered to be a bear market pattern. “Watch closely: a shift upward often marks the start of bullish momentum,” says the analytics firm. The final metric shared by CryptoQuant is the Realized Price of the short-term holders (STHs), which measures the average cost basis of the Bitcoin investors who got in during the last 155 days. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Returns Back To Neutral As BTC Breaks $114,000 During BTC’s recent plunge, the STHs briefly dipped into losses, but the asset has since recovered above their Realized Price of $109,775. Bullish trends have historically continued when the coin has traded above this level. BTC Price Bitcoin has climbed back to $114,200 following its recovery surge in the last couple of days. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com