CEO Mike Novogratz noted this sale was part of a profit-taking trend among early bitcoin adopters, indicating weakening conviction in the "HODLing" philosophy.
Changpeng Zhao has debunked four narratives that have been circulating on social media within the crypto community in recent days, ranging from a fabricated Polymarket screenshot to claims about Binance “dumping” Bitcoin. He argues that traders were stitching together on-chain observations and clipped quotes into conclusions that weren’t supported by the underlying facts. Former Binance CEO Debunks “FUD” The first rumor centered on an image framed as a Polymarket market showing odds, circulated by several accounts, as high as “79%” that someone would throw something at Zhao’s face at a crypto event in 2026, supposedly backed by more than $7 million in volume. Zhao said the market was fictional, writing: “That event does NOT exist on Polymarket. There is no $7m volume. If it did, I would be the first one to throw a cake in my own face.” Polymarket’s own “CZ predictions & odds” landing page lists various markets historically tied to Zhao, such as questions about his role at Binance, legal outcomes, and other “mention markets”, but no market matching the viral “throw something” prompt appeared there. Related Reading: Binance Founder CZ Addresses Trump‑Related Controversy In Latest Statement A second claim: “CZ cancelled the supercycle” appears to have grown out of Zhao’s comments in a Jan. 30 AMA recap posted on Binance Square, where he described himself as “a bit less confident” about a Bitcoin supercycle than before, while still pointing to longer-term upside. Zhao rejected the idea that a change in his confidence equated to calling off a market regime shift. “Oh, if I had that power, I wouldn’t be on CT with you a lot. I would be snapping my fingers all day long.” The third rumor alleged Binance sold $1 billion of Bitcoin over the past weekend when the market saw a severe drawdown. Zhao’s rebuttal drew a sharp line between user flow and corporate activity: he said it was “Binance users” selling on the venue, not Binance itself as principal. Related Reading: Binance Forms New Company In Greece, Moves Forward With MiCA Licensing The distinction matters because centralized-exchange trading is largely internal ledger movement; a burst of selling pressure can occur without a corresponding on-chain “Binance sold” footprint. Zhao added that Binance’s wallet balances “only change when users withdrawal,” arguing that observers were treating exchange-labeled addresses like a live P&L feed. The fourth thread questioned Binance’s execution of its plan to convert the roughly $1 billion SAFU fund from stablecoins into Bitcoin over 30 days, after some users said they couldn’t “see” buying or on-chain movement. Binance has said it intends to complete the conversion within 30 days and to top the fund back up to $1 billion if market moves push it below $800 million. Zhao countered: “I am guessing their original plan was to buy it over 30 days and move the funds to the address near the end of the 30 days, or once a week or something. You won’t see them buying using a DEX. Binance is a CEX with the best liquidity in the world.” Moreover, CZ dispelled speculations that the decision could have a significant impact on the Bitcoin price. “Also, you think $1b over 30 days is going to make a difference for BTC’s $1.7 trillion market cap? That’s 1/1700/30 = … anyway, you do the math. It’s a gesture. Will it help with confidence, your call,” he wrote. At press time, BNB traded at $767.23. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Major declines in artificial-intelligence-linked stocks, software names and private equity are leading U.S. indices lower.
“I think crypto starts to become invisibly more part of everyone's lives," said Tom Lee — the two appeared on a panel together Tuesday morning at the Ondo Summit in New York.
Silver is higher by nearly 15% on Tuesday, while gold is nearing $5,000 per ounce after a 6.5% gain.
Bitcoin’s bear-market turn can be traced to Oct. 10, 2025, a session widely described as the largest crypto derivatives liquidation event on record, with roughly $19 billion in futures positions forcibly unwound as prices slid sharply off their highs. CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost argues the damage was structural as much as directional: open interest fell by about 70,000 BTC in a single day, wiping out months of leverage build-up and leaving speculation struggling to re-form. He claims that the Oct. 10 flush was “really the one that pushed BTC into a bear market” because of the speed and magnitude of liquidity destruction in futures. Why October 10 Was The Bitcoin Bear Market Beginning Darkfost pointed to a collapse in open interest measured in BTC terms. “In a single day, around 70,000 BTC were wiped out from Open Interest, bringing it back to its April 2025 levels,” he wrote. “That’s the equivalent of more than six months of Open Interest accumulation erased in one session. Since then, Open Interest has been stagnating and struggling to rebuild.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Bear Market Signal Emerges: Supply in Loss Rises Above 40% The implication is less about the specific catalyst for the selloff and more about market structure after it. In Darkfost’s telling, the Oct. 10 event wasn’t just a price move; it was a sudden reduction in the market’s capacity to carry leverage, which tends to compress speculative activity across the complex. “Liquidity destruction in an already uncertain crypto market environment is not conducive to a return of speculation, which is nonetheless a key component of the crypto market,” he added. That view resonated with Bitcoin Capital, which replied that “nothing has been the same after 10/10,” adding that “it actually feels like something broke.” Darkfost’s response was blunt about the path back: “It needs to be rebuilt and it can takes months …” In a follow-up post, Darkfost widened the lens beyond derivatives, describing an environment where spot participation has also cooled. He said Bitcoin is entering a fifth consecutive month of correction, with the October 10 event as a major driver due to its impact on futures liquidity, but “not the only factor at play.” Related Reading: 70% Bitcoin Crash Incoming? CryptoQuant CEO Says It Depends On This He flagged broader liquidity pressure via stablecoin flows and supply. According to his figures, stablecoin outflows from exchanges have coincided with an approximate $10 billion decline in aggregate stablecoin market capitalization over the same period, an additional headwind for risk-taking, particularly when leverage is already being de-risked. Spot volumes, he argued, tell a similar story of disengagement. Since October, BTC spot volumes have been cut roughly in half, with Binance still holding the largest share at $104 billion. He contrasted that with October levels when Binance volume “had nearly reached $200B,” alongside $53 billion on Gate.io and $47 billion on Bybit. Darkfost characterized the contraction as a return to “levels among the lowest observed since 2024,” and read it as weaker demand rather than simply a lull in activity. The current setup, he wrote, “remains uncertain and does not encourage risk-taking,” arguing that a durable recovery would require monitoring liquidity conditions and, “above all,” seeing spot trading volumes return. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $78,723. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Last year marked the second-worst annual performance since Strategy adopted its bitcoin treasury strategy.
The crypto market is entering a phase that seasoned investors recognize immediately. Price action has slowed, volatility has cooled, and the constant stream of headline-driven moves has faded into something more subdued. Bitcoin continues to dominate sentiment, but without the urgency that defined earlier cycles. In moments like this, the question shifts. It is no longer about chasing momentum, but about positioning. That is why discussions around the best crypto to buy now are resurfacing in a quieter, more deliberate way. Rather than exiting the market, many investors are adjusting how they deploy capital. Liquidity is still present, but it is moving selectively. Projects that rely solely on short-term hype are losing visibility, while concepts that can operate independently of daily price swings are gaining renewed attention. This change in behavior sets the stage for assets like Bitcoin Hyper to enter the conversation. ???? Explore Bitcoin Hyper in the current market environment A market that is pausing, not retreating Despite the absence of strong upward trends, calling the current environment bearish would miss the point. What the market is experiencing looks more like a recalibration. Investors are waiting for clarity, but they are not disengaged. Trading volumes are lower, yet capital remains positioned within the ecosystem, ready to respond to new narratives. Historically, these periods often precede the emergence of alternative strategies. When Bitcoin trades within narrow ranges and macro uncertainty clouds short-term forecasts, attention naturally drifts toward projects that are less exposed to immediate price fluctuations. This shift explains why the debate around the best crypto to buy now is becoming more nuanced rather than louder. Why Bitcoin Hyper is entering the discussion Bitcoin Hyper is increasingly mentioned as investors look beyond conventional approaches. Positioned within the broader Bitcoin narrative, the project does not rely entirely on Bitcoin’s daily price movements to stay relevant. That distinction matters in a market where even modest volatility can distort short-term decision-making. For investors who still want exposure to the crypto space but are cautious about direct market swings, Bitcoin Hyper represents a different angle. It draws from the credibility and familiarity of Bitcoin while attempting to establish its own positioning during periods of consolidation. This balance is precisely what many investors are scanning for when reassessing what the best crypto to buy now might be under current conditions. Investor psychology is shifting Market psychology plays a critical role during transitional phases. When prices move aggressively, emotion dominates behavior. When movement slows, reflection takes over. Investors begin to question assumptions, reassess risk, and explore structures that might perform differently when momentum returns. Recent industry research shows that capital rotation during low-volatility environments often favors projects with clear narratives and independent positioning. According to broader digital asset market flow analysis from organizations such as CoinShares, quieter periods tend to encourage experimentation rather than full withdrawal from the market. This context helps explain why Bitcoin Hyper is being observed closely despite the lack of immediate price catalysts. Bitcoin Hyper in a transitional cycle What makes the current cycle particularly interesting is the absence of extremes. There is no widespread panic, but there is also little excitement. This middle ground creates space for projects that can remain visible without relying on aggressive price action. Bitcoin Hyper appears to be benefiting from this environment. It is not positioned as a quick speculative trade, but rather as a strategic option during a market that is reorganizing itself. That positioning aligns with how many investors are currently approaching the question of the best crypto to buy now – cautiously, selectively, and with an eye toward the next phase rather than the next headline. Additional coverage of shifting market behavior and investor sentiment can be found through ongoing reporting on NewsBTC, where transitional trends are becoming increasingly clear. What investors are watching next As 2026 unfolds, investors are paying close attention to signals rather than noise. Engagement levels, consistency of interest, and resilience during slow periods matter more than short-term gains. Bitcoin Hyper is being evaluated through that lens. Whether it ultimately emerges as a defining asset of the next cycle remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that it has entered the broader discussion at a moment when investors are reassessing priorities. In a market defined by patience rather than urgency, that timing alone is noteworthy. ???? Take a closer look at Bitcoin Hyper’s positioning Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency investments involve risk. Market conditions can change rapidly, and losses may occur. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
U.S. ETF demand remains resilient even as Black Monday fears surfaced following bitcoin’s drop below $75,000 over weekend.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) sharp sell‑off has intensified pressure on Strategy, the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, even as it continues to expand its already massive cryptocurrency holdings. On Monday, the firm disclosed another BTC purchase at a time when prices were sliding to levels not seen in almost a year. Strategy Adds Bitcoin During Market Sell‑Off According to a securities filing released on Monday, Strategy acquired an additional 855 Bitcoin over the prior seven days, paying an average price of about $87,974 per token. The transaction amounted to roughly $75.3 million and further increased the company’s exposure to Bitcoin. The timing of the purchase, however, coincided with a steep downturn in the broader crypto market. Bitcoin fell below Strategy’s average acquisition cost toward $74,500, adding to investor unease. Related Reading: What’s Next For Bitcoin? Two Key Scenarios: Will It Crash To $60,000 Or Surge To $100,000? That price sat slightly below Strategy’s reported average purchase price of $76,052 per Bitcoin, raising concerns that the company’s sizable holdings could move underwater if the decline deepens. Market reaction was swift. MSTR fell 8% on Monday as Bitcoin slid below that average cost level. When Bitcoin briefly sank to its lowest point since April 2024, the value of Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings stood at approximately $53.1 billion. A subsequent rebound toward around $79,000 lifted the valuation of the company’s Bitcoin position beyond $55 billion, offering some relief but little clarity on near‑term direction. Worst In The Nasdaq 100 So far, Strategy’s shares have suffered a steep decline. The stock is down 48% in 2025, making it the worst performer in the Nasdaq 100 index. For comparison, the second‑worst stock in the index, Charter Communications, has fallen 39% over the same period, underscoring the scale of Strategy’s underperformance. Amid these challenges, Strategy is also scheduled to release its fourth‑quarter 2025 results on Thursday. Wall Street expectations suggest modest top‑line pressure but a sharp improvement in profitability. The Zacks Consensus Estimate calls for fourth‑quarter revenue of $119.6 million, representing a 0.91% decline from the same period a year earlier. Earnings, however, are projected at $46.02 per share, unchanged over the past month and a dramatic turnaround from a loss of $3.20 per share reported in the prior‑year quarter. Analysts expect the company’s fourth‑quarter performance to reflect continued financial momentum, driven largely by Bitcoin‑related gains and disciplined capital allocation. Related Reading: Crypto Hacks Explode: $370 Million Stolen In January Alone: Researchers By the end of January 2026, the firm’s Bitcoin holdings had climbed to approximately 712,647 BTC, up from 640,808 as of Oct. 26, 2025, further increasing its sensitivity to price movements in the digital asset. Still, recent share price performance highlights the risks tied to that strategy. Over the past three months, MSTR has fallen 43.4%, significantly underperforming the broader Finance sector, which gained 4.3% over the same period. The stock has also lagged other Bitcoin‑exposed companies. During that timeframe, Riot Platforms, CleanSpark and Coinbase Global posted declines of 25.3%, 32.0% and 41.1%, respectively, pointing to widespread weakness among Bitcoin proxy stocks, though none have fallen as sharply as Strategy. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Economist Robin Brooks expects the Warsh-led Fed to cut rates hard and fast, contradicting fears of slower easing.
Data shows the Bitcoin Net Taker Volume on Binance has taken one of its most negative values in recent years as the cryptocurrency’s price has plunged. Bitcoin Binance Net Taker Volume Has Fallen Deep Into Red Zone As explained by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a new post on X, the Bitcoin Net Taker Volume has seen a notable uptick in bearish sentiment on Binance. The “Net Taker Volume” here refers to an indicator that measures the net amount of taker buy or sell volume present in a given futures market. When the value of this metric is positive, it means the taker buy volume outweighs the taker sell volume on the platform. Such a trend implies a bullish sentiment is shared by the majority of the futures traders. Related Reading: Bitcoin Death Cross That Last Preceded A 66% Drop Is Back On the other hand, the indicator being under the zero mark suggests a bearish mentality is dominating the exchange as taker sell volume is outpacing the taker buy volume. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the 7-hour moving average (MA) Bitcoin Net Taker Volume for Binance over the last couple of years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Binance Net Taker Volume has witnessed a steep decline into the negative territory recently, suggesting a spike in bearish positioning. The red spike has arrived as the cryptocurrency has gone through a rapid drawdown that has taken its value below the $80,000 level. “This is the 3rd largest sell-off by Sell Taker Volume Dominance in the last 2 years,” noted the analyst. The two spikes in this window that were larger in magnitude came in October as the asset’s price crashed following its all-time high (ATH) above $126,000. In the past, Bitcoin has often tended to move in the direction that goes contrary to the expectations of the majority. As such, it only remains to be seen how the coin will develop in the near future, given this dominance of short sentiment. “At some point, the best risk-reward flips long,” said Maartunn. “We’re getting close.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Loss Turns Upward—Early Bear Market Signal? In related news, the digital asset derivatives sector has gone through some chaos as BTC and other assets have observed volatility. According to data from CoinGlass, derivatives platforms handled over $783 million in liquidations over the last 24 hours. Out of these $484 million of the contracts involved were long positions. $300 million of the liquidations still involved bearish bets as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have seen some rebound in this window. BTC Price Bitcoin briefly dipped all the way under $75,000 on Sunday, but the asset has since bounced a bit as it’s now trading around $78,900. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
These crypto products receive the same German tax treatment as directly held bitcoin.
A resurgent U.S. dollar index, which has logged its strongest two-day gain in nine months, could arrest potential bitcoin recovery.
Bitcoin slipped below the $80,000 level over the weekend as selling pressure intensified across global markets. Reinforcing a climate of uncertainty that has weighed heavily on risk assets in recent weeks. The move came amid broad weakness in equities, elevated volatility, and declining liquidity conditions, pushing many investors into a defensive posture. While the price action alone may resemble prior corrective phases, on-chain data suggest that the underlying market structure is beginning to change. A recent analysis from CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin is starting to exhibit characteristics historically associated with the early stages of bear markets. One of the clearest signals comes from the Supply in Loss (%) metric, which has climbed sharply to around 44% and continues to trend higher. This means a growing share of circulating BTC is now held at an unrealized loss. Reflecting increasing stress across market participants. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miner Fees Remain Near Cycle Lows: What Does This Signal? Importantly, Bitcoin is still trading above its Realized Price, suggesting the market has not yet reached full capitulation. However, the combination of rising losses and weakening price structure raises the risk that the current phase represents the transition into a broader bear market, rather than a temporary correction within an ongoing uptrend. Supply in Loss Signals Structural Shift Toward a Bear Market The report explains that Bitcoin’s current on-chain structure closely mirrors conditions observed at the onset of previous bear markets. Historically, several signals have tended to appear together at the start of prolonged downside phases rather than at the end of routine corrections. These include Supply in Loss expanding above roughly 40%, a simultaneous decline in Supply in Profit, and price remaining elevated relative to realized value. When these conditions align, they have typically marked the beginning of structural weakening, not a reset before another leg higher. The present setup fits this historical pattern. Supply in Loss has moved decisively above the 40% threshold, while profitable supply is gradually contracting. This shift is occurring without widespread panic or capitulation. Indicating that losses are spreading across the supply in a controlled but persistent manner. This dynamic suggests a slow deterioration in market health, as more participants hold BTC at a loss while price struggles to recover meaningfully. Related Reading: Ethereum Trades At A Historical Accumulation Level: Can Bulls Hold $2,600 In past cycles, durable market bottoms only formed after Supply in Loss expanded further, usually alongside deeper price compression and a clearer capitulation phase. At current levels, those conditions have not yet been fully met. As a result, the data implies that the market is still in a transitional phase. This no longer resembles a mid-cycle dip. On-chain signals point to Bitcoin entering a bear market structure, with downside risk remaining unresolved until stronger signs of capitulation or structural stabilization emerge. Bitcoin Higher Timeframe Confirms Bearish Market Structure Bitcoin’s price structure has deteriorated sharply on the higher time frame, as shown by the 3-day chart. After months of consolidation below the prior all-time highs, BTC has now broken decisively below the $80K psychological level, with the latest close around $77,500. This move confirms a loss of medium-term support and marks a clear transition from distribution into downside continuation. From a trend perspective, price has slipped below the 50-period and 100-period moving averages, both of which are now rolling over. The 200-period moving average, still rising but flattening near the mid-$80K area, failed to act as durable support and now represents a major overhead resistance zone. Historically, sustained trading below these averages signals weakening trend strength and reduced probability of immediate trend recovery. Related Reading: XRP Risk-Adjusted Returns Signal Consolidation Rather Than Trend Formation – Details The recent sell-off also stands out for its impulsive character. Large bearish candles with limited lower wicks suggest aggressive selling pressure rather than orderly consolidation. Volume expanded on the breakdown, reinforcing the validity of the move and indicating forced exits rather than passive rebalancing. Structurally, the market is now forming lower highs and lower lows on this timeframe. Unless BTC can quickly reclaim the $80K–$85K region, downside risk remains dominant. In this context, the chart supports a bearish continuation. At best, a prolonged basing phase precedes any meaningful recovery attempt. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin rebounded toward $79,000 after dipping below $75,000 over the weekend, as traders weighed heavy liquidation-driven selling against macro tailwinds and a potential inflection point for crypto markets.
Bitcoin’s latest drawdown is being framed less as a technical breakdown and more as a liquidity problem, with Ki Young Ju arguing that the key inputs that sustained the rally fresh capital inflows have stalled. In that setup, he says, calls for a full-cycle, -70% style capitulation hinge on a single variable: whether Strategy turns from buyer to meaningful seller. Will Bitcoin Experience Another -70% Bear Market? In a Feb. 1 post, Ki said “Bitcoin is dropping as selling pressure persists, with no fresh capital coming in.” He pointed to a flatlining Realized Cap as evidence that incremental money is no longer entering the market, and tied that directly to market structure. “Realized Cap” has flatlined, meaning no fresh capital. When market cap falls in that environment, it’s not a bull market.” His read is that the profit-taking has been there for a while, it was simply absorbed. Early holders, he wrote, were “sitting on big unrealized gains thanks to ETFs and MSTR buying,” and “have been taking profits since early last year, but strong inflows kept Bitcoin near 100K.” The change now, in his telling, is that the bid that mattered most has faded: “Now those inflows have dried up.” Related Reading: Bitcoin LTH Supply Rises Again Amid Bearish Market Dynamics That’s where the crash math changes. Ki described Strategy (MSTR) as “a major driver of this rally,” but argued the reflexive downside seen in prior cycles is unlikely without a decisive reversal from the company’s balance sheet strategy. “Unless Saylor significantly dumps his stack, we won’t see a -70% crash like previous cycles,” he wrote, carving out an explicit condition rather than presenting the drawdown as inevitable. Even so, he didn’t claim the market has found a floor. “Selling pressure is still ongoing, so the bottom isn’t clear yet,” Ki said, adding that the more probable path is time, not a straight-line liquidation. His base case is “a wide-ranging sideways consolidation,” a regime where volatility can persist but direction becomes harder to sustain without new marginal buyers. Stablecoin Liquidity Dries Up CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost added color on what “no fresh capital” looks like in the plumbing. He argued stablecoin activity, often treated as a near-term proxy for deployable crypto liquidity, has rolled over sharply as uncertainty stays elevated. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? CMT Reveals What Investors Need To See Now “The crypto market is currently going through a delicate phase, marked by a structural lack of liquidity in a context of persistently high uncertainty,” he wrote, calling it an environment “not conducive to risk taking,” especially relative to assets like precious metals and equities that are still drawing flows. Darkfost said the stablecoin market had expanded by more than $140 billion since 2023, but that total stablecoin market capitalization began declining in December, “putting an end to this sustained growth trend.” The more actionable signal, he argued, is exchange flows: “Strong inflows generally indicate a willingness to gain exposure to the market, while outflows instead suggest capital preservation and a reduction in risk.” He highlighted October as the last clear liquidity-heavy month, when “average monthly stablecoin netflows exceeded $9.7B,” with nearly $8.8B concentrated on Binance alone—conditions that “supported Bitcoin’s rally toward a new all time high.” Since November, he said, those inflows have been “largely wiped out,” with an initial $9.6 billion drop, then a brief stabilization, followed by renewed net outflows of more than $4 billion, including $3.1 billion from Binance. At press time, BTC traded at $78,280. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Raoul Pal is pushing back on the idea that crypto’s current drawdown signals a broken market cycle, arguing instead that bitcoin and high-beta risk are being hit by a temporary US liquidity air pocket tied to Treasury cash management and government shutdown dynamics. In a weekend post on X framed as a takedown of “false narratives,” the Global Macro Investor founder said the prevailing story—“that BTC and crypto are broken. The cycle is over”—has become an “alluring narrative trap,” especially as “prices [are] puking each and every fucking day.” But Pal said a separate question from a GMI hedge fund client about beaten-down SaaS equities prompted him to re-check the data and rethink the driver. “What I found destroyed both the BTC narrative and the SaaS narrative,” Pal wrote. “SaaS and BTC are the EXACT same chart. Huh? That means there is another factor at play that we have all missed…” Crypto Slide Due To US Liquidity Drain? Pal’s answer is liquidity. He argues US liquidity has been “held back” by two shutdown episodes and “issues with US plumbing,” adding that the drain of the Fed’s reverse repo facility was “essentially completed in 2024.” Related Reading: White House To Host Crypto And Banking Leaders In Push To Break Regulatory Deadlock That, he said, left the Treasury General Account (TGA) rebuild in July and August without the kind of offset that would normally soften the impact, turning it into a net drain. In his telling, the same lack of liquidity helps explain why macro activity gauges have looked weak, writing that “lackluster liquidity is the reason why the ISM has been so low.” While Pal said he typically tracks global total liquidity because of its long-term correlation with bitcoin and US tech, he argued the US measure is dominating this phase of the cycle because the US remains the system’s key liquidity supplier. That matters, he said, because the assets most exposed to a withdrawal of liquidity are long-duration, high-volatility exposures—exactly where bitcoin and SaaS sit in many portfolios. “Those are both the longest duration assets that exist and both got discounted because liquidity was temporarily withdrawing,” Pal wrote, tying their drawdowns to the same macro impulse rather than project-specific failure or a broken crypto “cycle.” He also pointed to gold’s rally as an additional constraint on marginal flows. “The rally in gold essentially sucked all marginal liquidity out of the system that would have flowed into BTC and SaaS,” Pal said. “There was not enough liquidity to support all these assets, so the riskiest got hit.” Pal described the latest shutdown as a further headwind, claiming the Treasury “hedged” by not drawing down the TGA after the prior shutdown and instead “added more to it,” deepening the drain. That, he said, is the “current air pocket” behind the “brutal price action” across risk. But he also argued the squeeze is close to clearing. “However, the signs are that this shutdown will get resolved this week and that is the FINAL liquidity hurdle out of the way,” Pal wrote, adding that the next phase could bring a “liquidity flood” from factors he listed including changes around eSLR, partial TGA drawdowns, fiscal stimulus and rate cuts. Related Reading: Crypto Bears Beware: Global Liquidity Cycle May Be The Longest On Record He extended the “false narrative” theme to Fed expectations, rejecting the idea that Kevin Warsh would run policy as a hawk. “On the subject of rate cuts, there is another false narrative going around that Kevin Warsh is a hawk,” Pal wrote. “It is utter fucking nonsense. These were comments mainly from 18 years ago.” Pal argued Warsh’s mandate would align with what he called the “Greenspan era playbook”—cutting rates, letting the economy run hotter, and leaning on productivity gains to restrain core inflation—while avoiding balance-sheet moves that could collide with reserve constraints and destabilize lending. Pal included a mea culpa, acknowledging GMI “was not seeing the US liquidity as the current driving factor,” after years of emphasizing global measures. “There is no disconnect,” he wrote. “It’s just that the confluence of events Reverse Repo drained >TGA rebuild > Shutdown > Gold rally > Shutdown was not forecastable by us, or in any event we missed the impact.” His bottom line was less about calling the exact bottom and more about time-in-cycle. “Often in these full cycle trades, it is time that is more important than price,” he wrote, urging “PATIENCE!” and reiterating he remains “HUGE” bullish on 2026 if the policy and liquidity playbook he expects materializes. At press time, BTC traded at $77,510. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
GameStop's shares have surged as Cohen teased a "transformational" consumer-related deal he said is "way more compelling than bitcoin."
As the Bitcoin market reels from a sharp sell-off and uncertainty grips the broader crypto space, most attention remains locked on falling prices and broken support levels. Meanwhile, Theo4 is executing with precision on Polymarket, steadily building a reputation as one of the platform’s most dominant traders. While panic and emotion drive losses elsewhere, Theo4’s performance underscores a different approach. How Theo4 Quietly Became Polymarket’s Standout Performer While much of the crypto world fixated on the Bitcoin crash, Theo4 has quietly become one of the most successful and talked-about traders on Polymarket. A crypto analyst known as BeingInvested has revealed on X that since joining the platform in October 2024, Theo4 has made just 14 predictions and has highly concentrated positions that have generated an astonishing $22.05 million in profits. This accumulation places the trader among the largest and most profitable accounts publicly visible on the platform. Related Reading: 70% Of Institutional Investors Aren’t Buying The Bitcoin Top Narrative – Here’s Why Theo4 placed huge bets at prices that turned out to be still deeply attractive: $0.37 on Donald Trump winning the popular vote, $0.60 on a Trump presidency, 35 cents on a Republican double, and $0.63-$0.66 betting against a Harris win, and several aligned positions reinforcing the same core thesis. Rather than scattering capital across many outcomes, Theo4 has extremely well-timed directional conviction around the Trump sweep narrative. Amid the BTC drawdown, the Epstein theory is making waves. Analyst Zynx argued that it’s disturbing how Bitcoin critics are pushing the Epstein narrative. These are the same people who repeatedly claimed that Strategy was on the verge of liquidation. They cannot tolerate the reality that BTC is winning, so they resort to misinformation to undermine it. Firstly, they labeled BTC as a tool for criminals, and now they are attempting to associate it with some of the most nefarious individuals imaginable. However, no matter how aggressively they try to taint the image of BTC, Zynx noted that it will never stop people from buying, and it is the only thing that sets them free. Why Understanding The Expanded Flat Pattern As the Bitcoin flat pattern continues to develop into its final leg, it’s important to understand how the expanded flat pattern actually behaves. According to Decode, in these structures, the price can break high-time-frame support, print a lower low, and then continue higher afterward. This behavior runs directly against the dominant bearish narrative that a lower low must signal a confirmed bear market. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? CMT Reveals What Traders Need To See Now Decode pointed out that the structure shown on Google and Nvidia charts is not always the case. In reality, it is often the wave of traders going short at the break of the structure that fuels the reversal higher. “Trends are not black and white, bull or bear, but there are other ways to look at things,” Decode noted. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin (BTC) came under heavy selling pressure over the weekend after failing to hold the $84,000 level, a move that culminated in a sharp decline on Monday. The sell‑off pushed the cryptocurrency down to around $74,000, marking its lowest price in roughly 10 months and reigniting debate over where the market could be headed next. Bitcoin’s Make‑Or‑Break Level In a recent Monday post on the social media platform X (previously Twitter), analysts at Bull Theory outlined two potential paths forward for Bitcoin as volatility remains elevated. They noted that after briefly rebounding toward $79,000, Bitcoin is now trading above the $75,000 area, a level they describe as a critical weekly support zone. This region has already been tested, and how price behaves here is expected to determine the next major trend. Related Reading: Dogecoin Crash Sends It To Key Demand Zone, Here’s The Level To Watch From a broader technical perspective, Bitcoin’s weekly chart has deteriorated. The price has slipped below both the 20‑week and 50‑week moving averages (MAs), levels that are commonly used to gauge medium‑ and long‑term market momentum. While this development has raised concerns, Bull Theory argues that the situation is not yet decisive and hinges on whether key support levels continue to hold. In the first scenario outlined by the analysts, Bitcoin manages to defend the April 2025 low, with $75,000 ultimately marking the bottom of the current correction. For this outcome to unfold, Bitcoin would need to hold above that April low and begin forming a higher low on the chart. If successful, the broader bullish structure would remain intact, defined by a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. In this case, the recent drop toward $75,000 would be viewed as a corrective pullback rather than a breakdown of the long‑term trend. Risk Of Deeper Correction The second scenario is more bearish and hinges on a failure to hold current support. If Bitcoin breaks below the April 2025 low, Bull Theory warns that the market structure would change meaningfully. A breakdown would invalidate the higher‑low formation that has defined the broader uptrend and signal that the $75,000 support level has failed. Under this scenario, downside risk would increase, opening the door to a move into the $50,000 to $60,000 range. Related Reading: How To Trade The XRP Price In The Short Term After The Massive Crash According to Bull Theory, the outcome ultimately depends on two clear factors: whether Bitcoin can hold above $75,000 on weekly closing prices, and whether the April 2025 low remains intact. If both levels continue to hold, the first scenario — a corrective pullback within a broader uptrend — remains in play. If either level gives way, the second scenario becomes the more likely path, with significantly lower prices potentially ahead. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Crypto-related stocks like Robinhood, Coinbase, and Strategy continued to sport sizable losses on Monday.
Historical data show that bitcoin has always found support in bear markets at the 200-week moving average.
It was a relatively small purchase for the company, which now holds 713,502 bitcoin purchased at an average price of $76,052 each versus the current price of about $77,000.
A sharp drop in the bitcoin price while CME was shut leaves bitcoin futures trading well below Friday’s close.
Since the recent Bitcoin price crash to $76,000, the broader crypto market has been on high alert, with sentiment shifting to extreme fear levels. A crypto analyst who has shared insights on Bitcoin’s latest market movements predicts more pain for the leading cryptocurrency. He has also warned investors against taking advantage of the decline and buying BTC during this highly volatile and unpredictable period. Analyst Warns Not To Go Long After Bitcoin Price Crash Crypto analyst Tyrex has warned investors against going long on Bitcoin following the recent price crash. Over the weekend, BTC experienced another devastating decline, dropping by more than 14% according to CoinMarketCap. For some investors, this drop may appear as an opportunity to buy the dip and go long on the leading cryptocurrency. However, Tyrex advises against making such a move. Related Reading: XRP Prints Bullish Divergence On The Weekly Chart, But Is ATHs Still Possible? The analyst stated in an X post on February 1, 2026, that Bitcoin had crashed to a new low around $76,000 on January 31, confirming a bearish breakout. He noted that, based on past market movements in which similar setups occurred, excluding fakeouts, Bitcoin is highly unlikely to stage a full recovery back to $85,000. Instead, he said the price is more likely to keep dumping until it completes its downside move and reaches a price discovery at lower levels. Tyrex cited Bitcoin’s price action in May 2021, May 2022, and June 22, noting that massive price crashes occurred during these periods after similar breaks in market structure. He said Bitcoin failed to recover quickly in each case and actually continued to crash on the daily chart after the main red candle was printed. The analyst’s accompanying Bitcoin chart shows the cryptocurrency trading above $79,000 at the time of his analysis, after it initiated a slight recovery from its previous low near $76,000. He projected on the chart that Bitcoin could soon resume its decline and fall toward the $75,400 region, representing a more than 4.5% decline. Tyrex added that a major support level sits around the $74,000 level on the weekly chart, which could temporarily hold off further downside. According to Tyrex, this level is equivalent to a key support near $2,100 for Ethereum. Related Reading: Analyst Says Chainlink Price Could Crash 50% If This Level Fails Analyst Shares Highly Likely BTC Decline In his analysis, Tyrex stated that, given Bitcoin’s latest price crash, structural weakness, and past cycle trends, he expects the cryptocurrency to retest recent lows once again. Considering his view that a recovery is unlikely, the analyst suggests that the near-term outlook for BTC is predominantly bearish. He noted that the $74,000 support is the main area for potential long positions. However, he expressed caution, noting that this level may not be particularly strong since it is relatively distant on the weekly chart and could be broken if Bitcoin continues its downward trend. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin was little changed Monday as volatility spikes and crypto equities remained under pressure ahead of the U.S. market open.
Spot ETF investors are now sitting on paper losses, which sets the stage for potential large redemptions.
Bitcoin slid sharply over the weekend, breaking below $76,000 in thin trading and briefly dipping through the $75,000 area as selling accelerated late Saturday into Sunday. The move pushed BTC into a zone that technician Aksel Kibar has identified as a key band of horizontal support, roughly between $73.7K and $76.5K. The move didn’t come in a vacuum. Macro markets were already in a forced-risk-off posture, with a violent sell-off in precious metals feeding broader deleveraging dynamics, exactly the kind of tape that can amplify weekend volatility when liquidity thins out and stop levels get tested. Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? Kibar, a Chartered Market Technician and the founder of Tech Charts LLC, said in a series of posts on X that he’s watching the $73.7K and $76.5K closely, but not treating it as an automatic green light for longs. His message to traders: price reaching support is a location, not a signal, and the difference matters most when you’re trying to avoid catching a falling knife. In several posts dated Jan. 30 and Feb. 1 he stated that his process is built around classical chart patterns rather than “guessing” the low. “Reaching a support area is not in itself a classical chart pattern buy signal,” he wrote. “We need to see a bullish reversal chart pattern forming around support areas. But trading tactics differ. You might have a different way to take advantage of the recent price action.” Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Digital Gold Thesis Faces Reality As Gold Surges Ahead Kibar framed the current range as an area where a bottom could form, but emphasized that his approach is to wait for structure, specifically a reversal formation that changes the odds profile. On Jan. 30 he laid out why he won’t chase a level just because it’s on the map. “I’m not interested to find the support because I’m not trying to catch the falling knife,” he wrote. “I’m interested to find a bottom reversal pattern. A double bottom. A H&S bottom. I will always miss the boat if it is a V reversal.” That trade-off is deliberate, he added, and it’s part of knowing your own constraints: “Important to know your strength and weaknesses.” In a separate post, Kibar linked the “base building” concept to a concrete trigger: a breakout above $91.2K, which he described as the completion point of a double-bottom scenario he had referenced earlier. “When I say we need a base building, some sort of a classical chart pattern (preferably with horizontal boundaries), I’m referring to the breakout above 91.2K (completion of a double bottom),” he wrote, adding that confirmation is “even more crucial because we are below long-term average,” before he can “submit for bullish interpretation.” Kibar’s posts also pushed back on a common psychological trap in bottom-calling: confusing caution with fear. Responding to an X user who suggested he sounded bullish but reluctant to “make a call” to avoid being wrong, Kibar agreed with the setup but sharpened the motive. “Everything correct,” he replied. “Except not I don’t want to be wrong but to have higher conviction. We can’t act in markets with the fear of being wrong.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Is The Money Of The AI-Powered Economy: CryptoQuant CEO That distinction matters because it explains why his framework requires visible evidence of buyers stepping in, rather than a single level holding by default. When another user asked whether Bitcoin could be forming the right shoulder of a potential head-and-shoulders bottom, Kibar dismissed the timing: “Too early to start thinking about this.” In his most recent update, Kibar described the kinds of behaviors that, in his view, can hint at demand emerging around support. Instead of treating it as a checklist, he framed it as the “signs” that can show buyers are willing to defend the area: a pickup in activity and volatility, candlesticks that show rejection(such as doji-like structures with long lower wicks) and short-term reversal structures like double bottoms or head-and-shoulders bottoms. Kibar also introduced a market-structure point he said he learned while managing a large fund in the United Arab Emirates: “If there are no sellers, there will be no buyers.” He argued that large buyers often need meaningful supply to build size without moving price against themselves, and that heavy selling can sometimes be the condition that allows that accumulation, depending on motives and liquidity. He briefly extended that idea to Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), noting he wasn’t sure whether the firm “will be required (from an accounting perspective) to sell any assets,” but adding that, in his words, the market can be a “wild wild west,” where “some buyer out there might be after that chunk at a reasonable price.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $76,713. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Despite thousands of alternative tokens and institutional adoption, crypto markets in 2026 still largely move in lockstep with bitcoin, offering little real diversification.