Bitcoin’s latest push has run into a difficult stretch, with the price falling back under the $80,000 mark in the past 24 hours. This context gives more weight to a new quarterly chart analysis that places the most important levels much lower than the current price. According to the analyst, Bitcoin may continue to move sideways within the present quarter, but the structure of the quarterly candle makes the $65,000 region a major area to watch if the current resistance continues to hold. The Resistance Zone That Could Define This Quarter Technical analysis of Bitcoin price action on the 3-month candlestick chart shows important price levels for Bitcoin traders in this quarter. The analysis, which was posted on X by crypto analyst Minga, puts the most immediate observation on the $80,600 to $82,500 range. This is a band that, based on the quarterly chart, represents the ideal area for Bitcoin to find rejection in the current candle. Related Reading: The 3 Bitcoin Rules That Tell When The Bear Market Is Fully Over This zone is important because it sits near the upper boundary of the current quarterly structure and has already acted as a difficult area for bulls to reclaim. Bitcoin tested the 200-day SMA resistance around $82,500 early in the week, but buyers have so far failed to secure a strong breakout above the level. The outlook is that Bitcoin should ideally reject inside the $80,600 to $82,500 range. If Bitcoin cannot close above this region in this quarter, then it shows that the price action lacks the conviction required to push into price discovery on this particular cycle’s terms. On the other hand, if Bitcoin reclaims this area, then the quarterly candle will end up engulfing the previous quarterly candle, which is something that hasn’t happened during a bear market before. $65,000 Is Very Important The bearish side of the setup depends on Bitcoin continuing to reject from $80,600 to $82,500, but there are important support levels to watch when there is a rejection. The analyst identified Bitcoin’s quarterly open at around $68,200, and this level stands out as the first major support area below the current price action. A move back to the quarterly open would therefore place Bitcoin at an important decision point for the broader timeframe. Related Reading: Analyst Predicts Biggest Bitcoin Bull Trap Of The Cycle, Calls Out 50% Crash To $42,000 However, perhaps the most important line in the sand for this quarter is $65,000, and this is because there are untapped lows around that area on the lower timeframes. Bitcoin has yet to revisit these untapped lows, and therefore, $65,000 represents areas of likely liquidity. However, there is a strong possibility that Bitcoin holds the region as support and stages another upside bounce from there. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $79,820, down by 1.8% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin may be holding strong above major psychological levels, but the market still lacks the scale of capital inflows needed to trigger a true full-scale bull run. While short-term moves can be driven by leverage and speculative positioning, a true bull run historically requires deep, consistent liquidity from institutions, funds, and new retail participants entering the market. The Liquidity Gap Preventing Bitcoin From Full Expansion Bitcoin still requires significantly stronger capital inflows to confirm the start of a true bull market, as current on-chain signals suggest momentum remains insufficient. The founder and CEO of Alphractal, Joao Wedson, highlighted on X that a key metric to watch is the realized market capitalization impulse, which is currently hovering just below the neutral 0 level, a zone now acting as temporary resistance. Related Reading: Previous Bitcoin’s Market Top Was Hidden Behind Sophisticated Whale Distribution — Analyst Explained If the metric fails to reclaim and hold above 0, it would signal fading market inflows, increasing the probability that BTC could revisit lower price levels in the coming months. However, a decisive move back above 0 would suggest that fresh money is re-entering the network, potentially marking the beginning of a shorter, more compressed bear cycle moving toward upside momentum. For now, with the indicator still below this critical threshold, Joao cautions that it remains too early to declare the start of a new bull run. Despite market optimism, the data suggest that the necessary foundation of strong capital inflows has not fully materialized to sustain an upside move. Is Bitcoin Entering The Early Stages Of A Trend Reversal? Bitcoin is starting to show early signs of structural weakness after struggling to maintain strong bullish momentum at a major resistance zone. A crypto trader known as CGT Trader has noted that during the recent rally, BTC rarely formed consecutive lower highs, and when it did form lower highs, it was unusually limited to a single occurrence before the next continuation to the upside. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally At Risk: This Critical Resistance Could End BTC’s Bullish Run Currently, the price action is starting to deviate from that pattern. BTC is still trading sideways within a major resistance zone, and the price has already formed three consecutive lower highs without making a lower low. CGT Trader explained that the market structure is not fully bearish because BTC has still not confirmed lower lows. However, the repeated inability to reclaim higher levels suggests the uptrend may be losing strength as buyers struggle to sustain momentum. The critical level to watch is whether BTC begins printing lower lows alongside these lower highs. Meanwhile, if that formation occurs, it would signal a clear shift in market structure, potentially marking the end of the bull trap and the beginning of a broader high-time frame downtrend. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Cryptocurrency markets rallied sharply on Thursday after the Senate Banking Committee delivered a major win for the industry by advancing the long-anticipated CLARITY Act. The market reaction was visible across the largest coins: Bitcoin (BTC) jumped to $81,899 at the time of writing, representing about a 2.7% gain, while XRP led among the top ten cryptocurrencies, surging above $1.50 with gains of more than 6%—a level not seen since March of this year. Even with the momentum, the bill is still not law, and it faces multiple political and procedural hurdles before it can be finalized. Next Steps For The CLARITY Act The committee’s action—passing the CLARITY Act by a 15–9 vote—means the next step is a full Senate vote, which would require roughly 60 votes to pass. If it clears that threshold, the process would move into the next phase, typically involving House–Senate talks to reconcile differences between versions, followed by a potential presidential signature, which could further boost crypto prices. Related Reading: Hyperliquid (HYPE) To $100? Expert Forecasts Major Rise Before Summer 2027 At the same time, several Democrats voiced reservations about whether the CLARITY Act strikes the right balance. As earlier reported by Bitcoinist, the hearing included discussion of Democratic amendments aimed at concerns such as stablecoin yields and AML. Those amendments were either voted down or rejected by Scott on the basis that they were not written correctly and therefore could not be offered in that process. XRP Reclaims $1.50, Bitcoin Nears $82,000 Beyond the CLARITY Act, the market’s chart-driven response turned into a question of whether XRP and Bitcoin can continue to convert momentum into follow-through. With XRP reclaiming the $1.50 area, a decisive weekly close above $1.50 is now being watched as a potential trigger for further upside. Some projections point toward targets in the $1.65 to $1.70 range, and a more aggressive bullish extension could carry expectations toward $1.85 if the rally gains additional strength. Related Reading: Coinbase CEO Unpacks The Crypto Bill’s Biggest Promise For The US Financial System For Bitcoin, traders have been focused on a specific resistance level: $83,000. That level has been a key barrier recently, as it prevented continued upside after last week’s move. Earlier in the week, Bitcoin also experienced a pullback that took it below $79,000 on Wednesday, before rebounding again toward $82,000 on Thursday in the immediate aftermath of the CLARITY Act committee vote. In other words, the market is celebrating today’s progress, but the next technical test remains close by. Featured image created with OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
The upbeat public debut of AI chipmaker Cerebras is also helping to lift both crypto and traditional markets.
Crypto analyst Xanrox has advised market participants against buying Bitcoin, warning that a crash is looming for the leading crypto. Instead, the analyst advised buying altcoins, which are likely to offer greater gains. Analyst Advises Against Buying Bitcoin With Crash Looming In a TradingView analysis, Xanrox advised against buying Bitcoin, citing the crypto’s bearish price action. Commenting on BTC’s daily chart, he noted that the LOG scale shows a bearish flag pattern, indicating bearish price action. He added that it will be a technical error to buy or go long at the resistance of the channel. Related Reading: 9 Red Candles Before The Bottom: Why Bitcoin Price Will Continue To Crash Xanax further revealed that Bitcoin’s price is currently within the channel, indicating a huge selling wall above the current price. The analyst admitted there is still a chance BTC could rise to between $83,000 and $84,000. However, he advised opening a short position at this point rather than longing BTC. The analyst’s accompanying chart indicated that the recent Bitcoin rally was simply a bull trap, with BTC now at risk of dropping to around $60,000. BTC notably fell below $80,000 yesterday following the release of the U.S. PPI inflation data, which showed that inflation rose 6% year-over-year (YoY) in April due to the U.S.-Iran war. Meanwhile, Xanrox also noted that Bitcoin’s dominance is bearish, which is a strong sign of an altcoin season. He stated that the BTC price is currently looking to retest the main channel’s support trendline at around $60,000. Altcoins To Buy Xanrox listed ADA, TRX, LINK, DOGE, BNB, XLM, XRP, and ETH as altcoins to buy for those looking to trade with huge banks and institutions because they control the price of these coins. He reiterated that market participants should avoid Bitcoin as its dominance is falling and that it has already pumped from its February lows of around $60,000. Related Reading: Can An Altcoin Season Come Again? Why Bitcoin Price Can’t Fall Below $40,000 Meanwhile, the analyst stated that trading lower-cap coins will be better for those looking to make much more profit, as those coins have greater upside than the major altcoins, which he described as ‘bank’s coins.’ Some altcoins have recorded significant gains over the last month, with TON, SUI, and ONDO leading the way. TON is up almost 50% in the last month, rising to almost $3 as the Toncoin network’s fees dropped by 600%. The altcoin also recorded this surge as the Toncoin network now offers one of the most attractive yields among all layer-1 networks. Meanwhile, SUI and ONDO are up over 26% and 57%, respectively, on the back of bullish fundamentals in their respective ecosystems. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $79,600, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin has lost the $80,000 level as the market faces a wave of uncertainty that has erased the confidence built during weeks of gradual recovery. The breakdown is not catastrophic in isolation — but XWIN Research Japan has identified a set of on-chain conditions that place the current moment in a historical context that demands careful attention before drawing conclusions about what comes next. Related Reading: XRP Holds Key Level, But Binance Flow Data Signals Weakening Demand The analysis draws on CryptoQuant data to describe a market at a genuine inflection point. Bitcoin rallied approximately 37% from the April lows, a recovery that carried it back toward the 200-day moving average at approximately $82,400 — a technical level that has acted as major resistance during previous bear market recovery attempts. The price reached that level and is now retreating from it. The historical parallel that XWIN Research Japan identifies is March 2022. At that point in the previous cycle, Bitcoin staged a sharp rebound of comparable magnitude before failing at the 200-day moving average and resuming the broader downtrend that eventually carried it to the cycle lows. The structural resemblance between that moment and the current one is the finding that cannot be dismissed without examining the evidence carefully. Compounding the concern, unrealized profit margins have climbed to 17.7% — the highest level since June 2025 — approaching the readings that accompanied the 2022 recovery rally before profit-taking accelerated and the advance stalled. The pressure building in the data is real. Whether it resolves the same way is the question the analysis addresses. The 2022 Bitcoin Warning Is Real The XWIN Research Japan analysis does not dismiss the bearish parallel — it earns the right to challenge it by acknowledging the evidence for it first. On May 4, traders realized profits of 14,600 BTC in a single day, the largest daily profit-taking spike since December 2025. Historically, single-day realizations of that scale tend to appear near local tops rather than in the middle of sustained advances. The signal is present and documented. What follows in the analysis is the case for why the current structure differs from the 2022 analog despite the surface similarities. Spot demand contraction has narrowed dramatically — from -91,000 BTC in April to approximately -11,000 BTC today. Selling pressure of that magnitude characterized the 2022 bear cycle throughout its duration. The current reading is a fraction of that. Long-term holder panic selling remains limited, and the average spot order size data points to whale-sized participation rather than retail-driven activity. Suggesting that large, informed capital is still accumulating through the volatility rather than exiting alongside it. The structural context that did not exist in 2022 adds the final layer. Spot ETFs, corporate Bitcoin adoption, and the regulatory clarity being advanced through the CLARITY Act represent institutional infrastructure that provides demand support the previous cycle simply did not have access to. The honest conclusion the analysis reaches is that Bitcoin may not be repeating 2022. It may instead be navigating a transitional phase. One where the asset is institutionalizing in real time, and where the historical playbook requires updating before it can be applied reliably to what comes next. Related Reading: A Quiet Rotation Into Altcoins May Already Be Underway: Altseason Hopes Return Bitcoin Faces Resistance After Recovery Rally Bitcoin is trading near $79,700 after losing momentum around the $80,000–$82,000 region, an area that has become the market’s immediate battleground. The daily chart shows BTC retreating after a powerful recovery from February lows near $63,000, a move that delivered roughly a 37% rally before price ran directly into major technical resistance. The rejection comes at an important point because the advance stalled precisely as Bitcoin approached the declining 200-day moving average near $82,400. That level carries historical importance. During previous bear-market recovery phases, the 200-day moving average frequently acted as a line separating temporary relief rallies from broader trend reversals. BTC briefly tested the region and immediately began showing signs of exhaustion. Related Reading: 21Shares Is Launching A Hyperliquid ETF: Here Is What Investors Need To Know Despite the pullback, the broader structure has not yet broken down. Bitcoin continues holding above the key support zone around $73,000–$75,000 highlighted on the chart. That region aligns with previous consolidation and sits close to the rising shorter-term moving averages. As long as price remains above it, buyers maintain technical control of the recovery structure. Volume has also declined during the latest push higher, suggesting momentum participation weakened near resistance. For now, Bitcoin remains trapped between key support and long-term resistance, leaving the market at a critical decision point. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
A warning from Bitcoin’s weekly chart is showing a familiar bear market structure beginning to take shape. According to technical analysis of the weekly chart, Bitcoin has already moved through a topside distribution phase and a range phase beneath it, and the current price action is now forming a redistribution zone. The concern is that a similar setup appeared after the 2021 peak before Bitcoin went through a much deeper decline. The last time this setup appeared, it erased nearly 80% of Bitcoin’s value in under a year. Bitcoin Chart Following The 2021 Breakdown Structure The analysis compares Bitcoin’s current weekly chart with the structure that developed during the 2021 to 2022 bear market. In that previous cycle, Bitcoin first created a distribution zone near the top. The price then entered a range phase below that high, creating the appearance of stabilization before the market rolled into a redistribution area. Related Reading: Ripple CEO Reveals What It Would Mean For XRP Holders If The Company Went Public The first stage in 2021, which was a Distribution Phase, occurred as Bitcoin reached its then-peak near $69,000. In the current cycle, the same pattern materialized around the $108,000 to $126,000 zone, forming a wide but delineated top. The second stage was a Range Phase, which is a minor consolidation band directly beneath the distribution ceiling where price stabilized before the next move. The third stage, and the one that might be forming right now, is Redistribution. This is the structure that immediately preceded the 2021 crash. It is a secondary range, lower than the first, where sellers reassert control before a decisive breakdown. In 2021, the conclusion of this redistribution phase was the last exit point before the Bitcoin price fell 78% over the following eight months. Bitcoin Weekly Price Chart. Source: @degargoyle On X Is This A Sell Signal? The question now is whether this is a sell signal, but the chart does not give a simple answer. What it does show is a warning against assuming that the recent bounce above $80,000 is the beginning of a run to a new all-time high. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $79,800. The redistribution phase, if confirmed, does not guarantee a crash of 78% or any fixed magnitude. But a repeat of a 78% crash from current price levels will see the Bitcoin price falling below $25,000. Related Reading: XRP’s Current Predicament Is Only Temporary; These Factors Will Drive It To $18 However, it is also important to note that Bitcoin’s fundamentals and structural environment in 2026 bear little resemblance to the one that existed when the last crash took hold. When Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025, the rally had been due to strong ETF inflows and favorable regulatory conditions, institutional pillars that did not exist four years ago. Market sentiment is back to neutral, and the more balanced interpretation is that Bitcoin is now in a confirmation zone. A strong weekly claim above $84,000 would weaken the sell signal and suggest that buyers are in full control. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Spot ETF outflows and a hawkish Federal Reserve are creating a "macro ceiling" that makes a new all-time high unlikely without a major geopolitical shift.
The daily payout structure lifts the effective yield to 13.88% as the company eliminates all debt and expands its bitcoin treasury strategy.
The rally was led by leveraged traders and not U.S.-based spot buyers. Hence, its. sustainability is being questioned.
Cerebras Systems’ $5.5 billion IPO and soaring semiconductor stocks underscore how investor attention has shifted from bitcoin to artificial intelligence in 2026.
Jane Street sharply reduced its Bitcoin ETF exposure in the first quarter of 2026, cutting reported holdings in BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC while increasing positions in Ether ETFs and several crypto-linked equities. The move has revived speculation that one of the market’s largest trading firms may have been a major force in Bitcoin’s recent price dynamics — and that a lighter reported position could remove a key overhang for BTC. According to the latest 13F filings, Jane Street cut its IBIT position by roughly 71% and its FBTC position by about 60% in Q1. Parker White, the Chief Operating Officer (COO) and Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of DeFi Development Corp (DFDV), renewed his thesis from February and argued via X that the filing may help answer questions that have circulated since a major IBIT trading dislocation on February 5 when BTC price saw a massive -18% drawdown. “It is now apparent that Jane Street cut their IBIT and FBTC holdings by roughly 70% in Q1 based on 13F filings,” Parker wrote on X. “Did they just outright sell or more likely, did they make a HUGE profit on their short derivatives, which they don’t have to report? We are still waiting for the final shoe to drop with one of the likely culprits of the blowup.” It is now apparent that Jane Street cut their IBIT and FBTC holdings by roughly 70% in Q1 based on 13F filings. Did they just outright sell or more likely, did they make a HUGE profit on their short derivatives (which they don’t have to report)? We are still waiting for the… https://t.co/67XxlwZEGm — Parker (@TheOtherParker_) May 13, 2026 Related Reading: Bitcoin Just Entered A Deceptive Territory, Here’s What You Should Know Will The Bitcoin Price Rally Now? The filing does not show Jane Street’s derivatives exposure, nor does it establish whether the firm was directionally bearish, hedged, or engaged in ETF arbitrage and market-making activity. That limitation is central to the debate. A 13F captures certain long holdings at quarter-end, but it does not give a complete view of options, swaps, futures, or short exposure that could materially change the economic interpretation of the reported cuts. Still, the reduction has become a focal point because of earlier claims that Bitcoin’s price discovery may have been distorted by the mechanics of spot ETF trading. Bitwise advisor Jeff Park wrote that Jane Street had “slashed its Bitcoin ETF exposure in Q1 2026,” cutting IBIT by approximately 71% and FBTC by approximately 60%, before adding: “Price discovery is back on the menu.” Park’s broader argument is not that one firm explicitly suppressed Bitcoin’s price, but that the ETF structure creates a complex market-making environment in which authorized participants can use creation and redemption mechanics, derivatives, and futures hedges in ways that may weaken the link between ETF demand and spot Bitcoin buying. In a prior post, he framed the issue as structural rather than conspiratorial. JANE STREET SLASHED ITS BITCOIN ETF EXPOSURE IN Q1 2026, CUTTING IBIT BY ~71% AND FBTC BY ~60%, ACCORDING TO ITS LATEST 13F FILING Price discovery is back on the menu https://t.co/ed41KhlQC4 — Jeff Park (@dgt10011) May 13, 2026 “The short answer is that no AP explicitly suppresses Bitcoin price,” Park wrote. “What the AP structure can suppress is the integrity of the price discovery mechanism itself. Those are not the same thing—but the second is arguably more consequential than the first.” Related Reading: Here’s When Bitcoin Could Reach $10 Million Under Power Law Model That distinction matters for the bullish interpretation. If Jane Street’s reported Bitcoin ETF exposure has already been reduced substantially, some traders may read the filing as evidence that a large source of ETF-related pressure has been partially cleared. Parker went further, suggesting Jane Street “likely doesn’t want to be short BTC forever” and that observers should “look for them to begin re-accumulating in Q2.” The thesis is speculative, but it is not without a clear market logic. If a large trading firm had been involved in strategies that created persistent ETF or derivatives pressure, a reduction in reported Bitcoin ETF holdings, combined with any eventual unwind of related positions, could shift the market’s balance back toward cleaner spot-led price discovery. That is the bullish setup implied by the posts: not simply that Jane Street sold, but that the trade may already have played out. At the same time, Jane Street did not exit crypto exposure broadly. The firm increased holdings in BlackRock and Fidelity Ether ETFs and added to positions in Riot Platforms, Coinbase, and Galaxy Digital, while trimming Strategy and several Bitcoin mining names. At press time, BTC traded at $79,783. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s dominance over the wider crypto market has grown noticeably stronger in 2026, and new data suggests the reason comes down to where institutional money is — and isn’t — going. Related Reading: Crypto Firm Exodus Drains 63% Of Its Bitcoin Reserves As Q1 Loss Doubled Year Over Year Altcoin Season Loses Steam Analysts tracking market behavior say the expected rotation from Bitcoin into smaller altcoins has not materialized the way it did in previous bull cycles. The social buzz and speculative energy that once drove traders toward low-cap coins have both faded. According to data from Bitwise, the broader crypto market’s appetite for risk has fallen sharply since October 2025 — a shift that appears to be reshaping how capital moves across the space. LATEST: Quantum signal flashes red, says Bitcoin risk appetite has collapsed since October 2025.$BTC premium plunged from +30% to near 0%, signaling Alts rotation is officially over. The post-quantum narrative failed to spark any real altcoin adoption & institutions are… pic.twitter.com/KcBkyA4JpF — Bitcoin Archive (@BitcoinArchive) May 12, 2026 Traders who profit from BTC rallies have historically moved those gains into altcoins, chasing bigger returns further down the market cap ladder. That pattern, reports indicate, is breaking down. The altcoin market is seeing slower inflows, and the enthusiasm that defined past cycles has been replaced by a more cautious posture. Bitcoin Premium Falls From 30% To Near Zero The clearest signal of this shift sits in the Bitcoin premium metric. Data shows the premium climbed above 30% between September and November 2025, then began a steady decline that carried into 2026. By recent readings, it had fallen to nearly 0% — a steep drop that analysts say reflects weakened interest in speculative crypto activity. The so-called quantum signal, which had shown positive momentum toward the end of 2025, has since turned negative. Based on reports from Bitwise, that reversal lines up with a broader pullback in risk-taking across digital asset markets. Investors, it appears, are not chasing returns the way they were just months ago. Institutions Are Parking Money In BTC One reason BTC is holding up while altcoins cool is the continued preference among institutional investors for the largest cryptocurrency by market cap. In periods of uncertainty, reports note, large investors tend to move toward assets with deeper liquidity and more established market infrastructure — and BTC fits that profile better than most. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Awaken As Rare Golden Cross Signal Flashes On Charts The anticipated wave of institutional interest in altcoins, partly tied to expectations around quantum computing developments, did not gain the traction many had expected. Instead, institutional capital has been concentrating in Bitcoin, reinforcing its position at the top of the market. Whether that concentration holds through the rest of 2026 remains an open question. But for now, the data points in one direction: Bitcoin is being treated less like a speculative bet and more like a store of value — and the rest of the market is feeling the difference. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
The previous Bitcoin market top may not have been marked by a dramatic crash or obvious sell signal, but by a highly coordinated, sophisticated wave of whale distribution. While most participants were driven by optimism and bullish conviction, large holders were quietly offloading positions in a way that blended seamlessly into normal market activity. How Whale Distributed Bitcoin Without Triggering Warning Signals The Bitcoin market top last year was less obvious than in past cycles, unfolding through a quiet, highly coordinated wave of whale distribution. ForeDex on X revealed that at a time when BTC participants were filled with optimism and conviction, a whale moved roughly 30,000 BTC to exchanges over 10 days via Galaxy Digital. Meanwhile, most market participants failed to recognize the significance of these flows. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply Shock: 100,000 BTC Vanish From Exchanges In Under 90 Days ForeDex explained that BTC was split into smaller amounts and distributed across multiple exchanges, unlike previous cycles. In earlier market tops, large flows often ranging from several thousand to 10,000 BTC were sent directly to platforms such as Coinbase, Binance, or Gemini in a single transaction, making these movements relatively easy to detect. However, after the ETF approval, market structure and trading behavior became more sophisticated. As selling pressure was distributed across different exchanges, the historical exchange-specific sell premium became less reliable. Even the well-known Coinbase-Binance Gap data no longer shows these traces as clearly as it used to. Ultimately, BTC market dynamics are evolving, and new patterns are constantly emerging. Even if some participants had identified unusual flows, the strong optimism and conviction at the peak would likely have led many to dismiss them. Bitcoin Could Face Another Liquidity Sweep To The Downside Bitcoin is showing signs of weakening market structure, with price forming lower highs following the rejection at $82,000. Crypto analyst Kaz has noted that one of the biggest warning signs is the sharp rise in Open Interest (OI) that is aggressively occurring, and both perpetual and spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) are trending downward, indicating bullish traders are already starting to get squeezed out of the market. Related Reading: 14,600 Bitcoin Sold in Profit in One Day: Here Is How BTC’s Own Structure Broke It Below $80K At the same time, bears appear to be actively building short positions, a continuous liquidation that is adding fuel to the decline. Kaz argues that additional long positions could be flushed out, as perpetual and spot CVDs are currently declining, and there is still long liquidation at the downside. Currently, BTC is retesting the $80,000 level with the highest OI bearish positioning seen at this level so far. In the bullish case, if price holds above the $80,000 zone and CVD starts rising, the market could trigger a short squeeze back toward the $82,000 resistance. In the bearish scenario, a loss of the $80,000 level, combined with current weak internals, could lead to a liquidity sweep of the lows, with price potentially moving toward testing the point of weak order (pwO). Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin’s recent price behavior has been everything the bulls hoped for, and that may be precisely the problem. Since bottoming out around $63,000 in early April, Bitcoin has posted a sequence of higher highs and higher lows and has now reclaimed $80,000. The structure looks bullish. However, technical analysis shows that Bitcoin has now entered into deceptive territory. Bitcoin’s Uptrend May Be Hiding A Compression Phase Bitcoin’s price action is now forming an interesting but deceptive pattern. The pattern in question is a rising wedge that has been forming on Bitcoin’s daily chart since February. The setup was highlighted by crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader, who described Bitcoin’s current pattern as “the most deceptive pattern in crypto.” His chart places Bitcoin near the upper end of the wedge, with the $84,000 area acting as a key rejection zone. Related Reading: XRP’s Current Predicament Is Only Temporary; These Factors Will Drive It To $18 A rising wedge is formed when price action grinds upward along two converging trendlines, printing higher highs and higher lows in a narrowing channel. The pattern resembles an upward price trend where the market constantly hits higher levels and never falls below prior price lows before bouncing back on the surface. However, a rising wedge is known to resolve more bearishly than bullishly. The chart shared by Merlijn shows Bitcoin pushing upward inside this structure, with the upper wedge boundary sitting around $84,000. That area is the zone where bulls may face their biggest test. That makes the next move around the $80,000 to $84,000 area very important. A clean move above the upper boundary would weaken the bearish wedge argument. A rejection around $84,000, followed by a breakdown under $80,000, would open up the path to lower price levels. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @MerlijnTrader On X Crash Below $60,000? The $80,000 price level is now carrying both psychological and technical weight. Bitcoin recently reclaimed this level for the first time in months, helped by improving market sentiment. Merlijn’s chart turns that same level into the breakdown trigger. According to the outlook, a break below $80,000 would confirm weakness inside the wedge and open the way for a move down to $56,000. This does not mean Bitcoin is guaranteed to fall there, but it shows where the bearish projection comes from if the wedge resolves to the downside. Related Reading: Pundit Predicts When The XRP Price Will Rally To $12 At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $80,920 after moving between $79,879 and $81,227 over the past 24 hours. This narrow range shows that buyers are still active around the $80,000 level, preventing a clean breakdown below the zone for now. The price action has also kept Bitcoin from showing any major sign of distribution, as support continues to hold near the lower end of the range. All that needs to happen now for bullish momentum is a weekly close above $84,000. However, a weekly close below $80,000 could shift the setup in favor of the bearish path. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Physicist Giovanni Santostasi says Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory is not best understood as an S-curve, speculative bubble, or simple exponential trend, but as a power law similar to patterns found in cities, biology and other natural systems. Speaking with Nathalie Brunell on the May 12 episode of the Coin Stories podcast, the director of the Scientific Bitcoin Institute argued that Bitcoin’s historical data points to roughly $1 million per coin in about eight years and $10 million in roughly 20 years. Santostasi explained his Bitcoin Power Law thesis in detail. His core claim is that Bitcoin’s price has followed a nonlinear mathematical relationship with time since the network’s early trading history. In his formulation, Bitcoin’s price is proportional to time raised to a power of roughly 5.8 to 5.9, often rounded to six. That exponent, he said, is not just a curve-fitting artifact but a “fingerprint” of the system. “With bitcoin we found a similar relationship where the price is proportional to the time,” Santostasi said. “So the age of bitcoin, how many years, you can measure it in days, you can measure it in years. And then you take the power and that power is 5.8.” Bitcoin Is Growing Like A City He acknowledged that Bitcoin remains volatile in the short term, with wars, crises and liquidity shocks producing large deviations. But he argued those moves are oscillations around a deeper trajectory. Related Reading: Bitcoin Exits ‘Panic Zone,’ But Capital Inflows Remain Weak According to Santostasi, Bitcoin’s power law currently implies a central price level around $120,000, while the market has recently traded below that level. He said the lower statistical band, which he described as a kind of floor, is currently near $56,000 to $57,000. He also cited a correlation coefficient of 0.97 for the power law fit, arguing that only around 3% of Bitcoin’s long-term price variation is not described by the model. A key part of Santostasi’s thesis is that Bitcoin behaves more like a networked organism than a corporate asset. He compared Bitcoin to cities, which he said grow through bottom-up interaction and tend to endure far longer than corporations. Cities, in his telling, follow power laws because their value emerges from networks of people freely interacting, building and exchanging information. “Bitcoin is like a city,” Santostasi said. “Bitcoin is like tooth and nails and thorns and shells, these natural forms. To me, if you can simplify this message — and because it’s not poetry, it’s science actually, it’s based on data — it is one of the most convincing orange-pilling arguments that you can make.” The physicist contrasted that with exponential growth, which he associated with systems that expand quickly but eventually hit resource limits. He cited corporations as an example, saying most die within 150 years, while cities such as Rome can persist for millennia. That distinction led to one of the more provocative implications of the discussion: corporations backed by Bitcoin, Santostasi suggested, could theoretically become more city-like in their durability. “This is one of the reasons why I want Saylor to start adopting this language of a power law,” he said, referring to Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor. “He could say exactly that. We are turning corporations into cities.” Related Reading: Arthur Hayes Says The Bitcoin Bull Market Has Begun: $126,000 Is Next Santostasi also argued that Bitcoin’s address growth supports the thesis. He said Bitcoin addresses have grown as a power law with time cubed, while price reacts to address growth roughly according to a square relationship, similar to Metcalfe’s Law. Combining those two relationships, he said, produces the observed price relationship of time to the sixth power. “If you double the number of addresses, the price goes up to four,” Santostasi said. “If you triple it, it goes to nine. So it’s a power law with the square.” That framework also leads Santostasi to reject the common view that Bitcoin adoption should be modeled primarily as an S-curve, like refrigerators, televisions or other consumer technologies. Those products, he argued, are not networks in the same way Bitcoin is. Bitcoin’s social, monetary and technical layers make it closer to the internet or a city than to a household appliance. Still, Santostasi stopped short of presenting the forecast as certainty. Asked how confident he is that Bitcoin will reach roughly $1 million per coin in about eight years and $10 million in roughly 20 years, he put the probability near 90%, while leaving room for failure conditions. He said continued capital inflows, larger institutional participation and new pools of capital are necessary for the path to remain intact. At press time, BTC traded at $80,963. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
CEO Simon Gerovich says regulatory and infrastructure challenges are slowing the launch of Metaplanet's perpetual preferred share.
Bitcoin held by so-called conviction buyers has surged to nearly 4 million BTC, a roughly 300% increase since late 2025.
U.S. PPI surged well above forecasts in April, reviving concerns that rising oil prices and Iran-related supply risks may feed another inflation wave.
The ratio has climbed above its 200-day moving average for the first time meaningfully since September 2020, a move that has historically preceded major bitcoin rallies.
BTC is fighting a technical battle as it trades just below two closely watched long-term trend indicators: the 200-day Simple Moving Average and the 200-day Exponential Moving Average.
Exodus Movement sold more than 1,000 Bitcoin in the first three months of 2026 to fund a push into financial technology, raising $73 million in the process. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Awaken As Rare Golden Cross Signal Flashes On Charts The crypto wallet company cut its Bitcoin holdings from 1,704 to 628 coins by March 31 — a reduction of roughly 63% — with nearly all the proceeds directed toward acquiring W3C Corp., the parent company of fintech firms Monavate and Baanx. Revenue Takes A Sharp Hit The Bitcoin sales came as Exodus reported a steep drop in earnings. Total revenue for the quarter ended March 31 fell to $22.7 million, down from $36 million during the same period a year ago — a decline of nearly 37%. Exchange aggregation, which accounts for the bulk of company income, took the hardest hit, falling almost $14 million as user trading activity slowed significantly. Monthly active users slipped from 1.6 million to 1.5 million year over year. Quarterly funded users dropped even more sharply, falling 22% to 1.4 million from 1.8 million. Exodus pointed to macroeconomic pressures — including revised Federal Reserve growth projections and uncertainty around tariff policy — as contributing factors. The company also warned that price swings in digital assets could continue to affect its results in coming quarters. Net Loss More Than Doubled The financial results reflected more than just a drop in trading. Exodus posted a net loss of $32 million for the quarter, compared to a nearly $13 million loss in Q1 2025. The company’s broader digital asset portfolio recorded a net loss of $36.4 million, driven by $76.8 million in unrealized losses, though partially offset by $40.4 million in realized gains on asset exchanges. On the balance sheet, cash and cash equivalents rose sharply. The company ended the quarter with nearly $73 million in cash, up from just $4.9 million at the close of 2025. New Products In The Pipeline Even as the core business contracted, Exodus rolled out a new product. XO Cash, a stablecoin toolkit built on Solana with payments company MoonPay, allows AI agents to make purchases through Visa’s payment network without exposing user private keys. Related Reading: Shiba Inu Bullish Momentum Explodes As Buying Pressure Intensifies Featured image from Getty Images/GeorgeManga, chart from TradingView
Ray Dalio has reopened one of crypto’s longest-running macro debates, arguing that Bitcoin still has not behaved like the safe-haven asset many investors expected it to become. The Bridgewater Associates founder said gold remains structurally superior as a reserve and crisis asset, drawing immediate pushback from Michael Saylor and several Bitcoin advocates. In a May 11 post on X, Dalio said Bitcoin “gets a lot of attention” but has not fulfilled the defensive portfolio role often assigned to it by supporters. His critique focused less on Bitcoin’s long-term price performance and more on market structure, privacy, correlation and reserve-asset adoption. “While Bitcoin gets a lot of attention, it hasn’t played the safe-haven role many expected. In my view, there are a few reasons why. First, Bitcoin lacks privacy. Transactions can be monitored and potentially controlled, which is why central banks aren’t looking to hold it.” Dalio then tied that transparency issue to Bitcoin’s behavior during market stress. “Second, it also has a high correlation with tech stocks. When investors get squeezed in other areas of their portfolio, they sell their Bitcoin to cover it. Third, it’s a relatively small and controllable market, whereas gold stands alone. There is only one gold.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Exits ‘Panic Zone,’ But Capital Inflows Remain Weak The argument places Bitcoin in the risk-asset camp rather than the sovereign reserve-asset camp. In Dalio’s framing, a safe haven is not defined by scarcity alone, but by how widely it is held, how independently it trades under pressure, and whether major institutions, especially central banks, are structurally willing to own it. “Ultimately, gold is more widely held, deeply established, and still plays a central role in the global system,” he wrote. That view is consistent with Dalio’s public stance over the past several years. In 2021, he called Bitcoin “one hell of an invention” and said there were few “alternative gold-like assets” at a time of rising demand for stores of value. But even then, he treated Bitcoin as an emerging, option-like monetary asset rather than a finished replacement for gold. More recently, Dalio has repeatedly favored gold over Bitcoin as a defensive asset. Business Insider reported in March 2026 that Dalio said Bitcoin would not seriously challenge gold as a safe haven, partly because central banks were unlikely to hold it as a reserve asset. Investopedia similarly reported that Dalio has acknowledged holding a small amount of crypto while continuing to prefer gold, citing concerns around privacy, government action and Bitcoin’s still-unproven role as a reserve currency. Bitcoin Community Reacts Michael Saylor, whose company Strategy has built its corporate identity around Bitcoin accumulation, rejected Dalio’s premise. “Gold is analog capital. Bitcoin is digital capital,” he wrote. “Transparency is a feature, not a bug, making BTC suitable as global collateral.” Saylor also argued that since Strategy adopted its Bitcoin standard on Aug. 10, 2020, Bitcoin had outperformed gold with a higher Sharpe ratio. Related Reading: Bitcoin Flashes Signal With 186% Average One-Year Return Other responses challenged different parts of Dalio’s thesis. Samson Mow disputed the claim that Bitcoin lacks privacy, writing that Dalio needed to “educate” himself. Mert Mumtaz, the Helius CEO, pointed instead toward Zcash, posting: “look into Zcash and thank me later.” Anchorage researcher David Lawant framed Bitcoin’s current limitations as part of a longer monetization process: “Could it also be that BTC is just newer and that the monetization process of a commodity in the free market can take a long time? If so, this is actually a positive for forward-looking holders. It’s where asymmetric upside ultimately lies.” Bitcoin-firm River took the argument in a more user-centric direction, saying Bitcoin is already a safe haven for people and businesses whose purchasing power is being eroded by central banks. The firm argued that gold remains relevant but cannot be used digitally, moved across borders with the same ease, or integrated into payments in the way Bitcoin can. At press time, BTC traded at $80,268. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin’s bull market has already started, arguing that a new wave of dollar and yuan liquidity tied to AI spending, wartime policy and infrastructure rearmament could push BTC back to $126,000. In his May 12 essay, “The Butterfly Touch,” the BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom chief investment officer framed crypto’s next leg higher as a macro liquidity trade rather than a narrow digital-asset story. His central claim is that governments and banks in the US and China are being pushed toward looser credit conditions by three overlapping forces: the AI arms race, military escalation, and a global shift away from just-in-time supply chains. “The bull market began in earnest when the US attacked Iran on February 28th,” Hayes wrote, tying Bitcoin’s recent outperformance to what he sees as the start of a new political regime for money creation. Hayes Points To AI, War And Fiat Expansion Hayes argued that AI infrastructure spending has become a national-security priority in both Washington and Beijing. In his view, that makes monetary restraint politically difficult, because the US and China both see machine intelligence as strategically decisive. Related Reading: Bitcoin Flashes Signal With 186% Average One-Year Return He said the AI buildout is already moving beyond the cash flows of large technology companies and into the credit channel. That shift matters for crypto, Hayes argued, because banks and central banks will be pressured to support capital expenditure for data centers, electricity generation and AI infrastructure. “But in the here and now, dollar and yuan liquidity will continue to rise. And Bitcoin and crypto will benefit,” Hayes wrote. The essay leans heavily on the idea that AI investment is structurally inflationary and potentially self-reinforcing. Hayes invoked Jevons Paradox, arguing that cheaper intelligence will increase total compute consumption, and the “Red Queen Effect,” under which companies must keep spending because rival model improvements can quickly depreciate previous investment. In Hayes’ reading, the cycle ends only when markets reject a major AI financing event or when political rhetoric in the 2028 US presidential race turns sharply against AI-driven inflation. Until then, he expects credit to keep expanding. Bitcoin Target: $126,000 Hayes said Bitcoin bottomed earlier this year at $60,000 and argued that a return to $126,000 is now “a foregone conclusion.” He also identified $90,000 as a key level where he expects the rally to intensify, claiming that call over-writers could be forced to cover once the strike is breached. “I have no idea how high Bitcoin can go,” he wrote, adding that Maelstrom would take its portfolio to “maximum risk” unless conditions change materially. Related Reading: Bitcoin Exits ‘Panic Zone,’ But Capital Inflows Remain Weak His thesis is not limited to AI. Hayes also argued that the US-Iran conflict and disruptions to commodity flows could push governments outside the US to rethink their dependence on dollar financial assets. According to the essay, countries that previously stored surpluses in Treasuries or US equities may instead redirect capital toward defense, energy, pipelines, food reserves and other physical infrastructure. That shift, he argued, would leave US policymakers with an incentive to keep financial conditions easier than they otherwise would be. Hayes pointed to possible dollar swap lines and looser bank capital rules as tools that could offset foreign selling of dollar assets without forcing an abrupt market repricing. Hayes closed the essay with a more explicit risk-on message for crypto markets. He said it is “time to shitcoin,” naming Hyperliquid’s HYPE and Zcash’s ZEC as already-large positions, while identifying NEAR as his next preferred trade. The NEAR thesis, he said, will be expanded in his next essay and will focus on the privacy narrative combined with Near intents. Hayes argued that this could create “a positive cash flow situation for the protocol” and potentially reverse the token’s weak long-term price performance. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $80,680. Featured image created with DALL.E. chart from TradingView.com
Peter Schiff thinks Strategy executive chairman and co-founder Michael Saylor is misleading retirees. The outspoken economist fired off a warning on X, asking how the SEC could allow Saylor to publicly describe STRC as suitable for retired investors whose main goals are low-risk wealth preservation and steady income. Related Reading: Shiba Inu Bullish Momentum Explodes As Buying Pressure Intensifies Schiff called it a violation of SEC antifraud and marketing rules. Strategy has not publicly responded to the criticism. A Preferred Stock Built Around Bitcoin The debate comes as Strategy pulled in over $206 million through its STRC perpetual preferred stock program. According to data from Bitcoin Treasuries’ ATM tracker on May 11, the company issued 2.12 million shares to generate those proceeds. At an average Bitcoin price of $81,471, that haul could buy roughly 2,536 BTC. The capital raise happened the same day Strategy announced it bought $43 million worth of Bitcoin — its first purchase after a one-week pause. The timing was no coincidence. STRC’s return to its $100 par value earlier in the session reopened the door for fresh share sales under the company’s at-the-money program. Trading volume told the story clearly. STRC recorded close to $445 million in daily volume on May 11, with the stock barely moving — it ranged from $99.99 to $100.01. That kind of price stability was the green light the program needed. How STRC Works The stock’s structure was designed by Saylor himself. Reports indicate STRC is built to hold steady at $100 per share, with dividend payouts that shift depending on where the stock trades. When the price dips below par, yields go up to pull investors back in. When shares trade at or above the target, the company can cut the payout and redirect capital toward Bitcoin purchases. STRC currently yields 11.5% annually, with the next ex-dividend date set for May 15. STRC had already shown signs of recovery on May 8, when it closed at $99.99 and climbed back to $100 in after-hours trading. Volume that day topped $218 million — a signal the stock was regaining footing before Monday’s full rebound. Related Reading: Nearly 80% Of Bitcoin Supply Hasn’t Moved As Long-Term Holders Tighten Grip Schiff’s Challenge Draws Attention Schiff’s objection cuts to a basic question about who STRC is for. The preferred stock is linked, at least indirectly, to Strategy’s ongoing Bitcoin accumulation strategy, which carries its own risks. That tension — between the stock’s structured, fixed-price design and the volatile asset it funds — sits at the center of the dispute. Strategy has built a model around raising equity capital and using the proceeds to buy Bitcoin. The STRC program is one of several instruments the company uses to keep that cycle running. With Monday’s raise added in, the machine is moving again. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView
The massive surge in the Bitcoin price since April 2026 is still viewed as part of a broader bear market phase, according to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant. While some market experts believe the rebound could signal a new bull run, CryptoQuant’s unrealized profit data show the numbers are nowhere near bull-market levels. Notably, as BTC’s value increases, rising selling pressure could threaten the cryptocurrency’s ongoing rally, potentially triggering a price breakdown. Profit-Taking Hits Three-Month Highs After Bitcoin Price Surge Bitcoin’s rally to $82,000 on May 6 came as a shock to the broader digital asset market, as that was the first time the cryptocurrency had reached that level since late January 2026. Initially, BTC broke above $81,000 on May 5 and pushed toward $82,000 the next day, only to be rejected. Now, after the surge, Julio Monero, the Head of Research at CryptoQuant, believes that investors could be gearing up to take profit, potentially adding more volatility to the cryptocurrency’s price. Related Reading: Here Are The Major Bitcoin Levels To Watch After Breaking $80,000 Monero said in an analysis report that Bitcoin holders realized daily profits of up to 14,600 BTC on May 4, marking the highest single-day figure since December 10, 2025. Net profits on a 30-day basis also surged, with holders realizing over 20,000 BTC. These numbers reinforce the analyst’s belief that selling pressure may be imminent. The CryptoQuant analyst also noted that Bitcoin has skyrocketed over 20% since the beginning of April, now trading around $80,000 after its latest rally. To some, this might look like a renewed and sustainable bull run. However, he described the move as a “bear market rally,” suggesting that Bitcoin remains within a broader bear trend despite recent price gains. Monero also revealed that BTC’s price surges since April have been fueled by easing macroeconomic pressures and an earlier undervaluation, which kept its price depressed all through January to March 2026. He added that a sharp increase in demand for perpetual futures has helped prop up BTC’s price, suggesting that much of the buying is probably driven by leveraged traders rather than fresh spot accumulation. All of these developments appear to be pushing the cryptocurrency’s price upward despite social and whale sentiment still firmly in the Fear territory. At the same time, price score and volatility indicators are flashing Greed, signaling that BTC’s rally is likely being driven by price action alone, rather than any meaningful or real shift in how investors actually feel about the market. Analyst Flags Upcoming Downside Risk For BTC In his report, Monero added that Bitcoin’s 30-day realized profit of over 20,000 BTC is still a long way from the 130,000 to 200,000 BTC range typically seen in bull markets. He believes the gap alone suggests the market could still have more pain ahead. Related Reading: Here’s The Next Major Bitcoin Resistance To Watch Out For Before A Crash Beyond the broader bear market and potential selling pressure, Monero also highlights specific warning signs that raise Bitcoin’s downside risk. He noted that while perpetual futures continue to climb, spot demand and exchange inflows remain weaker than expected. He described this setup as one that is “consistent with a rally that carries meaningful correction risk but has not yet reached a confirmed distributional peak.” Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator is flashing a green signal for the first time since March 2023. Here’s what it could mean for the asset. Bitcoin Now In “Early Bull” Phase On CryptoQuant’s Market Cycle Indicator As highlighted by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the CryptoQuant Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has signaled a shift for the cryptocurrency recently. This indicator tells us, as its name suggests, about the phase of the cycle that BTC is potentially inside right now. Related Reading: SUI Surges 40%: Analytics Firm Explains What’s Driving The Rally The metric is based on CryptoQuant’s P&L Index, which combines the data of several key on-chain indicators to provide a single score for the network. The P&L Index’s interactions with its 365-day moving average (MA) are considered to correspond to phase shifts for BTC. The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator captures this relationship by tracking the difference between the two. When the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has a high value on either side of the scale, it means that the P&L Index is a significant distance above/below its average value from the past year. Such a trend can indicate that the asset is in an extreme phase. Similarly, the indicator being close to the zero mark can imply the market may be in a phase transition. Now, here is a chart that shows how the metric has looked for Bitcoin recently: As displayed in the above graph, the CryptoQuant Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator dropped to a deep negative value after the price crash at the start of February. This low in the metric coincided with an “Extreme Bear” phase reading (shaded in purple) for the market. The indicator stayed inside this zone only for a few brief instances; however, as the cryptocurrency quickly found some stability. Throughout March and April, the metric remained in the “Bear” territory (blue), suggesting that while the P&L Index wasn’t at an extreme distance below its 365-day MA, it was still low enough to correlate to bearish market conditions. As the price recovered, though, the Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator became less negative. And finally, with the latest continuation to the rally in May, it has left the Bear region altogether, with its value now implying an “Early Bull” phase (green). Historically, this phase has often been followed by bullish transitions for the sector. As the chart below highlights, the signal appeared in both 2019 and 2023. It’s also apparent in the graph, however, that a false signal also surfaced in March 2022. “Instead of confirming a new bull market, the signal marked a local top before Bitcoin continued its broader downtrend,” noted the quant. Given this, it now remains to be seen which of the two categories the new signal will fall into. Related Reading: Bitcoin Exits ‘Panic Zone,’ But Capital Inflows Remain Weak BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $80,700, down 0.5% in the last 24 hours. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin continues to trend higher, demonstrating resilience despite short-term volatility and pressure from resistance. Rather than displaying signs of heavy distribution or aggressive selling, the market has maintained a constructive structure with shallow pullbacks and consistent higher highs, reinforcing confidence in the broader bullish trend. Strong Stability Of Bitcoin Above Key Levels Bitcoin is demonstrating significant resilience, according to analyst Sykodelic, who notes a lack of massive sell-offs or hard rejections. Instead, the market is producing higher highs following only minor pullbacks. BTC has successfully cleared multiple key levels and is currently consolidating to build the strength necessary for its next major expansion. Related Reading: Top Analyst Confirms The Bearish Target: Bitcoin Could Ease Down To $40,000 A pivotal technical milestone has been reached, as Bitcoin has remained above the Bull market support band for ten consecutive days. This zone, which incorporates the true market mean and Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis, is now beginning to trend upward. This shift suggests that the primary trend is strengthening and providing a solid floor for current price action. BTC recently secured a daily close above the 200D EMA, a level that typically causes hard rejections in weak market structures. Sykodelic highlights that rather than failing at this resistance, Bitcoin is coiling up for another attempt. The broader financial landscape has shifted into a risk-on environment, further supporting the bullish case for crypto assets. Bitcoin’s ability to repeatedly test and hold near the 200D EMA suggests that the path of least resistance is now to the upside. Given this structural strength, Sykodelic anticipates that the $85,000 level will be breached, potentially within the current week. Such a move would represent a definitive breakout from the current range and signal the start of a more aggressive rally. Lower Timeframe Price Action Remains Choppy And Unclear In a recent market update, analyst Minga noted that price action on the lower timeframes (LTF) is currently disordered, lacking the clean structure necessary for high-conviction trading. Following a rejection from the weekly open, the market’s bias leans bearish. However, for a sustained bearish continuation to materialize, the price must remain suppressed below the critical $82,100 resistance region. Related Reading: Bitcoin Open Interest Explodes Beyond 2025 All-Time High Levels On the downside, the $80,600 level has been identified as the primary local support zone. As long as the market successfully defends this floor, a potential recovery toward the $84,000 target remains a viable scenario. This creates a narrow range where the immediate trend is undecided, leaving the asset caught between a vital weekly resistance and a firm local support. Given the current lack of structural clarity, Minga suggests that the most prudent move is to remain patient for the market to provide more definitive confirmation regarding its directional intent for the remainder of the week. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
While some experts point to $90,000 as the next explosive level, others caution that this new "early bull" signal isn't a guaranteed crystal ball.
Inflation rose to a three-year high in April, according to this morning's Consumer Price Index report.