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On-chain data shows the Bitcoin long-term holders locked in a significant amount of gain around the time of the latest price plunge. Bitcoin HODLer Whales Have Shown Profit-Taking Spree Recently As explained by analyst Ali Martinez in a new post on X, long-term holder whales have participated in some profit-taking recently. “Long-term holders” (LTHs) refer to the Bitcoin investors who have been holding onto their coins since more than 155 days ago. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales Sell 147,000 BTC Since August, Fastest Selloff Of Cycle This cohort is considered to represent the HODLers of the market, who rarely sell even in the face of volatility. That said, there are times when these investors do participate in selloffs, and one such instance seems to have occurred just recently. In the context of the current topic, the everyday LTHs aren’t of focus, but rather the LTH whales, diamond hands who carry more than 1,000 BTC (about $113.7 million) in their balance. Below is the chart shared by Martinez that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Realized Profit for the LTH whales over the last few weeks. The Realized Profit here is naturally an on-chain indicator that measures the total amount of profit that the Bitcoin LTH whales are locking in through their transactions. From the graph, it’s visible that this metric observed a notable spike on September 21st. This was the day BTC started a price drawdown that took it to the $112,000 level. Thus, it would appear possible that the profit-taking from the HODLers may have in part been to blame for the bearish action. In total, LTH whales harvested over $120 million in profits during this distribution spree. Meanwhile, the short-term holders (STHs), representing investors who entered the market during the past five months, participated in loss-taking instead, as CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has pointed out in an X post. As displayed in the above chart, Bitcoin STHs sent 15,700 BTC at a loss to exchanges during the price crash. Investors generally use these platforms when they want to sell, so these loss transactions could have been a sign of capitulation from the cohort. The STHs have a relatively short holding time, so they are assumed to include the weak hands of the sector. In that view, the latest capitulation would be on-brand for the group. Related Reading: Bitcoin Dip-Buy Calls Spike: Why This Could Actually Be Bearish Coming back to the LTHs, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has shared a chart that puts into perspective the total amount of profit that the LTHs as a whole have realized in the current cycle so far. The cumulative Bitcoin LTH Realized Profit sits at 3.4 million BTC for the current bull market, which is higher than all, but one previous cycle. BTC Price Bitcoin has made some recovery during the past day as its price has returned to $113,700. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to remain range-bound between $110,000 – $115,000, data from crypto exchanges seems divided toward the leading cryptocurrency. While Binance traders are exhibiting a bullish stance, traders from other exchanges are still showing a degree of hesitation. Binance Traders Expecting Bitcoin Price Surge According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Crazzyblockk, fresh derivatives data from Binance is signaling shifting market dynamics – specifically, the recent BTC funding rate on Binance points toward traders taking a bullish stance. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breaks Above Mid-Term Holder Breakeven – Is A Fresh Rally Brewing? On the contrary, the BTC funding rate from other exchanges, such as OKX, Bybit, and Deribit, suggests that traders on these platforms are still uncertain about taking any directional bet.  As of September 23, the BTC perpetual funding rate on Binance climbed to +0.0084%, suggesting that the long positions are dominant and traders are willing to pay a premium to maintain their bullish bets. It is worth highlighting that the increase in funding rate is not an isolated event, as it suggests a positive seven-day change, indicating strengthening conviction among Binance traders.  For comparison, the BTC funding rate on OKX is currently hovering at -0.0001%, while on Bybit it sits at 0.0015%. Finally, Deribit shows a funding rate of 0.0019%. The analyst added: This isn’t just a difference in numbers; it’s a difference in narrative. While funding rates on OKX and Bybit have actually decreased over the last seven days, Binance’s rate has climbed. For the uninitiated, funding rates can be viewed as a real-time gauge of trader sentiment in the perpetual swaps market. A strong positive rate like that of Binance, which diverges from the rest of the market, points toward aggressive bullish speculation. Is BTC About To Make A Move? In a separate CryptoQuant post, contributor XWIN Research Japan noted that Bitcoin’s implied volatility has dropped to its lowest level since 2023. Back then, the lull in the market was followed by an explosive rally of 325%, which propelled BTC from $29,000 to $124,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Faces Bearish Pressure As Exchange Inflows Stay Elevated – Will BTC Lose $112,000 Support? The analyst added that the total Bitcoin exchange reserves continue to deplete at a rapid pace, hitting new multi-year lows. Historically, such a fall in BTC exchange reserves has preceded supply squeezes, leading to a dramatic rise in demand. That said, the overall sentiment toward BTC appears to be cold at present. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index suggests that investors are fearful of entering the market, which may offer a good opportunity to accumulate BTC at current market prices. However, fresh data from BTC wallets confirms that new wallets – those that are less than a month old – are starting to buy the top digital asset. At press time, BTC trades at $113,796, up 1% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

A closely watched crypto commentator known as plur daddy (@plur_daddy) has resurfaced with a macro thesis that places Bitcoin and gold at the center of an approaching policy inflection—arguing that President Donald Trump’s push to assert greater control over US monetary policy could catalyze a liquidity wave that undermines the dollar and forces institutional participation in alternative stores of value. The remarks arrive as global policymakers debate the use of Russia’s immobilized reserves to backstop new loans to Ukraine and as gold trades near record highs, sharpening the contours of a market regime in which Bitcoin increasingly trades as a function of liquidity and institutional credibility rather than a halving-linked “four-year cycle.” Trump’s Fed Takeover Could Supercharge Bitcoin “It’s been great being off Twitter… I continue to be long BTC and also significantly sized up my gold position in August. This is driven by my belief that Trump’s efforts to take control of the Fed represent a momentous catalyst, the kind that happens once a decade,” he wrote, adding: “Once he takes control, it is logical that he will not only cut rates, but engage in some form of yield curve control… The USD will get destroyed as a result.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Will Soak Up Trillions From China And Russia, Billionaire Predicts The post frames Bitcoin and gold as “more pure beneficiaries of an environment where liquidity is increasing and institutional credibility is undermined,” and contends that lingering fears about a halving-style market top are misplaced now that “BTC… has been captured by tradfi and is a more pure expression of liquidity conditions.” The policy backdrop he sketches has moved from hypothetical to contested reality in recent weeks. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell publicly rejected claims that the central bank is acting politically, even as investors parse appointments and public pressure from the White House. “Cheap shots,” he said of accusations about the Fed’s motives, defending the data-dependence of recent decisions. In parallel, global policymakers and market strategists have openly debated whether ongoing political intervention could force the Fed toward explicit yield-curve control to contain long-term borrowing costs—an approach not used in the US since the 1940s. In a follow-up thread, “plur daddy” outlined a pathway to lower mortgage rates via government-sponsored enterprises (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) buying more mortgage bonds, with capital requirement tweaks and derivatives used to manage duration. That proposal distinguishes itself from QE by shifting spreads through asset mix rather than expanding central-bank balance sheets directly. The argument aligns with the broader political incentives ahead of US midterms: “Markets are forward looking… They have a strong incentive to juice the economy and markets,” he wrote, while cautioning that direct stimulus would carry inflation risks. The liquidity lens extends to the Treasury General Account (TGA), which has been rebuilt rapidly into late Q3. Research desks had warned that an aggressive TGA refill into September could briefly drain market liquidity before easing, a pattern that crypto traders have long monitored given Bitcoin’s outsized sensitivity to changes in dollar system reserves and bills-versus-reserves mix. “BTC is hypersensitive to any shift in liquidity conditions, much more so than equities,” the post asserts, echoing analysis that mapped TGA dynamics to risk-asset performance. Another pillar of the thesis is Europe’s evolving stance on Russia’s frozen sovereign assets—roughly $300 billion immobilized after the 2022 invasion. Brussels is weighing a structure in which new loans to Kyiv are backed by those assets and only repaid if Russia pays reparations—an outcome the author argues “will never happen,” calling the mechanism a de facto seizure that “massively bolsters the raison d’être for crypto.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Dip-Buy Calls Spike: Why This Could Actually Be Bearish Market context has been sympathetic to the store-of-value leg of the argument. Gold has pierced new highs this month, with multiple banks projecting scenarios toward $3,700–$4,000 over the next several quarters if central-bank buying remains strong—and potentially higher if private investors accelerate hedging flows away from US dollar assets amid policy and geopolitical uncertainty. “It makes sense that BTC start moving [when] gold’s momentum slows down,” “plur daddy” added, positing a rotation once bullion’s advance stalls. The post has drawn quick agreement from notable traders. “Agree, I am trying to time this, I think < 6 months & > 90k,” wrote Ansem (blknoiz06), sketching a timeline that implies a Q1 2026 window for a new Bitcoin leg higher. Macro strategist Alex Krüger called it a “great post.” Forward Guidance podcast host Felix Jauvin added: “So very well said. Good to see you man.” The policy backdrop the expert sketches now features a Fed Board with a freshly confirmed Governor, Stephen I. Miran, who immediately dissented at the September FOMC for a larger cut and has been publicly arguing for materially faster easing in the dot plot. In parallel, the administration’s attempt to remove Governor Lisa Cook via lawsuit has put an unprecedented spotlight on the legal protections around Federal Reserve independence. Those developments—together with Europe’s evolving plan to leverage frozen Russian assets—are the concrete signposts of the “once-a-decade” moment described above. At press time, BTC traded at $113,121. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s price action is caught in uncertainty as messy subwave structures clash with a critical resistance at $113,000. While the market shows attempts at recovery, the unclear wave patterns leave traders divided on whether the next move will be a breakout or a deeper correction. Messy Subwaves Keep Bitcoin’s Next Move Clouded TARA, a crypto analyst, recently shared fresh insights on X regarding Bitcoin’s ongoing price action. According to the analyst, Bitcoin is currently in the middle of forming another wave down, but the subwave structure is still messy and unclear. This uncertainty makes it harder to predict the exact short-term direction, though the broader trend signals that further movement is likely. Related Reading: Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Signals Bullish Edge As Traders Eye Fed Pivot She noted that BTC has already tested the resistance zone around $113,500, but the market still seems drawn toward lower targets. The rejection from that resistance highlights the weakness in immediate bullish momentum, leaving room for bears to reassert control.  TARA also emphasized that the $111,000 level remains a critical area to watch. This zone aligns closely with important Fibonacci retracement levels, particularly the .618 support fibs. As long as Bitcoin holds above this threshold, there’s still a chance for the bulls to regain momentum and avoid deeper downside pressure. However, if $111,000 is broken decisively, the analyst warned that Bitcoin would most likely extend its decline toward the next major Fibonacci level near $99,000. Such a move would shake out weak hands before the market establishes a more stable foundation for recovery. BTC Finds Support As Liquidity Grab Sparks Bounce Crypto VIP Signal, in a fresh update, noted that Bitcoin recently grabbed liquidity at a key support zone before bouncing higher. This liquidity sweep allowed the market to reset after testing lower levels, showing that buyers were quick to step in and defend the area. Such reactions often serve as early signs of strength, suggesting that Bitcoin still holds bullish potential as long as the support remains intact. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Drops To $115K After Rate-Cut Rally — But BTC Far From Capitulation Attention now turns to the $113,000–$113,300 resistance zone, which stands as the next major hurdle for price action. This level has acted as a tough ceiling in previous attempts, making it a critical zone to watch. According to the analyst, a decisive close above $113,300 could pave the way for BTC to target the $115,000 level in the short term. Such a breakout would not only reinforce bullish momentum but also strengthen the case for a continuation of the broader upward trend. In the meantime, speculations are whether Bitcoin can hold onto its rebound or if resistance will once again prove too strong to overcome. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The crypto market has long moved in the shadow of Bitcoin, because for years, its rallies and sharp drops have pulled nearly every other digital asset such as XRP with it. However, according to Versan Aljarrah, co-founder of Black Swan Capitalist, the XRP token could break away from this cycle. According to him, XRP is on a different mission, one that goes beyond speculation and closer to real-world use. That role is why he says it will not mirror Bitcoin’s path, and why a decoupling is now on the horizon. Versan Aljarrah Reveals XRP’s Institutional Role Sets It Apart From Bitcoin Aljarrah stresses that XRP does not follow Bitcoin’s “digital gold” story. While Bitcoin serves as a store of value, XRP serves a very different purpose. In the X post, the expert refers to the cryptocurrency as a bridge asset for banks and financial institutions.  Related Reading: CEO Dismisses September Crash, Reveals Why The Bitcoin Price Is Headed For $150,000 In today’s financial world, cross-border payments can often be slow, expensive, and risky because of foreign-exchange issues. XRP addresses these problems by cutting out multiple intermediaries. According to Aljarrah, this practical utility places XRP closer to the daily operations of global finance, rather than the speculative trading behavior that defines Bitcoin.  Rather than acting like a typical cryptocurrency, XRP is evolving into core financial infrastructure. That transformation, according to Aljarrah, could move XRP far beyond a purely speculative asset and position it as part of the underlying system that connects currencies and payment networks worldwide. Why Regulatory Clarity And Adoption Drive XRP Toward Decoupling For years, one of the biggest obstacles facing XRP was legal uncertainty. Ripple Labs, the company associated with XRP, was embroiled in a lawsuit with the SEC. But that cloud has now lifted. Court rulings have made it clear that XRP sales on public exchanges are not securities transactions, and with the appeals dropped, the case is now closed.  With the court issue resolved, attention is shifting to growth, as developers are now adding new tools for institutions to the XRP ecosystem, including automated market making, stablecoin support, and updated token standards. Related Reading: Grayscale Files For New Dogecoin ETF Amid Approval Expectations, Is The Next Price Surge Coming? Banks, fintech companies, and payment providers are starting to test and integrate with XRP. At the same time, the XRP Ledger is growing stronger. Ripple has also launched RLUSD, a stablecoin, and is working on obtaining banking licenses worldwide. All these steps point toward a token that evolves into financial infrastructure rather than remaining a speculative play. Aljarrah notes that these changes mean XRP will no longer move like Bitcoin. Its price will not only depend on market speculation but also on its usage, the strength of regulations, and the growing demand for instant settlement.  For these reasons, he believes decoupling is certain. Over time, XRP will carve its own path as adoption spreads and its role in finance becomes more central. Featured image from DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin whales are selling at their fastest monthly rate of the cycle, a potential reason behind the asset’s latest decline. Bitcoin Whale Holdings Have Significantly Dropped Over The Past Month In a new post on X, CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno has listed a contributing factor behind the recent plunge in the Bitcoin price. The factor in question is the trend in the holdings of the whales. Whales are defined as BTC investors carrying more than 1,000 tokens of the cryptocurrency in their wallet balance. At the current exchange rate, this cutoff converts to about $112.8 million. Thus, the only holders qualifying for the group would be those with a substantial amount of capital. Related Reading: Bitcoin Dip-Buy Calls Spike: Why This Could Actually Be Bearish Exchanges and mining pool wallets may technically fulfill this requirement, but they are excluded from the group because they aren’t considered “normal” network participants. Given that the whales include some of the most influential investors in the market, their behavior can be something to keep an eye on, as it may sometimes have a direct impact on the asset’s trajectory. Even when it doesn’t, it can still be revealing about the sentiment among these humongous holders. One way to gauge whale behavior is through their total supply. Below is the chart shared by Moreno that shows how this metric has changed over the past year. As displayed in the graph, the Bitcoin whale supply saw a huge drawdown last month, indicating that the large holders participated in some significant net distribution. The metric made some slight recovery as BTC’s spot price surged above $117,000, but the trend has quickly flipped during the last few days as the indicator has registered another sharp plunge. Related Reading: Here’s The Boundary Bitcoin Bulls Must Defend To Save Rally Since August 21st, whales have sold a net total of 147,000 BTC, worth a whopping $16.6 billion. This selloff has taken the 30-day change in the cohort’s supply to the largest negative value of the cycle so far. Considering the timing of the selling, it’s possible that this is one of the reasons why Bitcoin has faced bearish price action recently. The market selloff may not be over yet, either, if the trend in the Exchange Inflow is anything to go by. As the CryptoQuant head has pointed out in another X post, the Bitcoin Exchange Inflow witnessed a surge on Tuesday. Investors generally deposit their coins in centralized exchanges when they want to participate in one of the services that they provide, which can include selling. As such, the growth in the Exchange Inflow could be a sign that holders are still trading away their Bitcoin. BTC Price Bitcoin slipped under $112,000 on Tuesday, but the coin has seen a slight bounce since then as its price has climbed to $113,000. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto analyst Stockmoney has assured that Bitcoin’s rally isn’t over despite the recent price crash to $112,000. The analyst explained how the cycle works, indicating that the crash is simply part of a broader move to the upside.  Bitcoin Rally Not Yet Done Despite Crash To $112,000 In an X post, Stockmoney stated that Bitcoin is not yet done, even amid the mass liquidation events. He indicated that the mass liquidation events were all part of the plan and not something that should catch market participants unaware. The analyst went on to explain how the BTC cycle playbook works.  Related Reading: Total Illiquid Bitcoin Has Reached 72% Of Supply, What Does This Mean For Price? First, he stated that the Bitcoin price pumps while whales take profits. Then, the price further pumps on low volume, with retail investors wanting to secure their gains. This leads to too many positions with paper gains and open futures positions, which Stockmoney explained equals a lack of liquidity. He noted that this happens after low-volume uptrends.  The analyst’s statement comes amid the Bitcoin price crash to around $112,000 this week from a high of around $117,000 last week. BTC had reached $117,000 last week following the Fed rate cut decision, with the U.S. central bank lowering interest rates by 25 basis points (bps). However, with the price crash, this has turned out to be a ‘sell the news’ event. Notably, the crypto market liquidations on September 22 marked the biggest liquidation event for long positions this year.  Stockmoney stated that liquidity must be freed before the Bitcoin price can go higher. He noted that the good side effect is that this is a profitable business model for market makers and that limits get filled as whales buy the dips. The analyst added that this cycle is a pattern that will keep recurring.  Analyst Says “Buy The Dip” In an X post, crypto analyst Ali Martinez urged market participants to buy the dip. This followed an earlier analysis in which he noted that Bitcoin had retraced to $112,000 as anticipated. He added that he was now watching for buying pressure to form the right shoulder before a breakout to $130,000, which will mark a new all-time high (ATH) for BTC.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Eyes Demand Zones In Higher Timeframes – Here’s The Target Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto noted that Bitcoin is currently retesting the Kijun around $112,600. He added that this level will be crucial to monitor as it could determine the next move for the flagship crypto. Meanwhile, he also suggested that this could be the final shakeoff before a liftoff to a new ATH for the BTC price.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $112,600, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is under renewed selling pressure as fear begins to creep back into the market. After weeks of high volatility, analysts warn that BTC could drop below the $110K support level in the coming sessions if current dynamics persist. Such a move would mark a critical shift in sentiment, as bullish momentum has clearly weakened in recent days. Related Reading: Bitcoin Net Liquidations Stay Negative Near $40M: Analyst Warns Downside Still In Play Despite this, more optimistic voices argue that Bitcoin remains resilient at current levels. They believe the market could stabilize and reclaim higher ground once buying demand returns, especially if macro conditions or institutional flows provide fresh momentum. Top analyst Darkfost shared important insights into the current onchain activity, noting a concerning trend among mid-term holders. He highlighted that while it’s difficult to confirm a single entity, Bitcoin aged between 6–12 months has been consistently flowing onto the market, following a strikingly similar selling pattern. Long-Term Holders Drive Market Pressure Darkfost explains that long-term holders (LTHs) currently control an overwhelming share of the Bitcoin supply, estimated at around 80–85%. This concentration of supply underscores the structural strength of Bitcoin’s investor base, yet it also means that any selling activity from this group has an outsized impact on price dynamics. When LTHs move coins onto the market, it often signals either profit-taking or a shift in sentiment, both of which can weigh on short-term momentum. The Bitcoin Spent Output Bands (SOB) indicator further validates this trend, showing that recent onchain flows align with the activity of these experienced holders. As coins aged between six months and several years enter circulation, the data reflects renewed selling pressure, helping explain the bearish momentum that has driven Bitcoin lower in recent days. This dynamic is consistent with the corrective move BTC has faced since losing the $115K level, as the market absorbs distribution from cohorts that previously held through volatility. Despite the near-term challenges, fundamentals continue to support a bullish outlook over the long run. Institutional accumulation, shrinking exchange reserves, and Bitcoin’s increasingly strong correlation with macro liquidity cycles all provide a foundation for higher valuations once selling pressure eases. The coming weeks will be decisive. If Bitcoin can hold above key liquidity zones and shake off the weight of LTH distribution, it may regain the momentum needed to retest its all-time highs. Conversely, failure to defend critical supports could extend the correction, further testing market confidence. Ultimately, while LTHs are shaping current price action, the broader structural demand for Bitcoin suggests that the long-term trajectory remains intact. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Capitulate: 30K BTC In Realized Losses Over 24 Hours BTC Holding Key Demand Level Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading near $112,567, showing a slight rebound after touching intraday lows around $111,135. The chart highlights that BTC remains under pressure following its rejection from the $117K–$118K region earlier this week. The key resistance level remains the $123,217 zone, which has capped rallies since July, while immediate support lies around the $112K–$110K range. The 50-day SMA at $114,322 and the 100-day SMA at $113,382 have now flipped into overhead resistance after the recent breakdown, suggesting that short-term momentum is weakening. A failure to reclaim these levels in the coming sessions could open the door for a deeper retracement toward the 200-day SMA near $103,869, which aligns with a long-term support cluster. Related Reading: Aster Forms Bullish Hammer At Key Support – Reversal Setup? Price action shows that buyers are attempting to defend the $112K region, which has acted as a strong liquidity zone in recent months. However, repeated tests of this level raise the risk of a breakdown if bullish momentum does not return. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Pantera Capital founder Dan Morehead believes a geopolitical shift in reserve management will push adversaries of the United States into Bitcoin at massive scale, calling it “inevitable” that China and Russia eventually hold “trillions of dollars” worth of the asset. Speaking on Blockworks’ Empire podcast released this week, the billionaire framed the prediction as part of a longer-term rotation in global reserve assets and a response to sanction risk embedded in dollar-denominated holdings. “I think it’ll take a decade or two,” Morehead said, adding that the first movers will likely include US-aligned Gulf states before “the big one” arrives with countries “antagonistic to the United States, like China or Russia.” Why Russia And China Will Adopt Bitcoin Morehead anchored his argument in the historical cadence of reserve transitions and the vulnerability of holding claims on a rival’s financial system. “You gotta remember, the reserve currency’s changed every 80 or 100 years… no one’s ever really lasted for more than, let’s call it 100, 110 years,” he said. While calling it “inconceivable that the dollar will be supplanted” overnight, he warned that countries with large US Treasury positions face concentrated political risk. Citing China’s portfolio, he argued: “It’s really pretty crazy to have your entire country’s life savings in an asset that your potential adversary could literally just cancel.” In his view, that calculus makes it “inevitable” that such countries “will have started to save in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies” within the next decade. Related Reading: Bitcoin Dip-Buy Calls Spike: Why This Could Actually Be Bearish The provocation lands amid measurable changes in how major economies hold US debt. Official Treasury data for July 2025 show China’s reported Treasury holdings at $730.7 billion, the lowest since 2008 and down markedly over the past decade, a decline often read as gradual diversification of reserves rather than abrupt abandonment. JUST IN: BILLIONAIRE DAN MOREHEAD JUST SAID IT’S “INEVITABLE” CHINA AND RUSSIA WILL HOLD TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN #BITCOIN NATION STATE GAME THEORY. IT’S HERE ???? pic.twitter.com/tOQO9tHYNi — The Bitcoin Historian (@pete_rizzo_) September 23, 2025 Japan remains the largest holder at roughly $1.15 trillion, with the United Kingdom near $900 billion. The broader pool of foreign-held Treasuries nonetheless hit a record in July. These figures illustrate that while the dollar system remains deep and liquid, China’s share is slipping at the margin—the exact dynamic Morehead argues could accelerate alternative reserve strategies over time. Morehead’s timeline also intersects with a flurry of policy proposals that, if enacted, would normalize sovereign Bitcoin exposure. In March, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a national digital asset stockpile. Wyoming legislators separately advanced a bill to permit limited Bitcoin investments—capped at 3%—within certain state funds, an incremental step toward institutional reserve management in digital assets at the state level. Related Reading: Bitcoin Falls Below $113,000, But This Indicator Says It’s Time To Buy Outside the US, Gulf governments are already experimenting at the edges of sovereign crypto exposure—another plank in Morehead’s thesis. The United Arab Emirates’ has launched state-backed mining initiatives and disclosures suggesting several thousand BTC accumulated on the balance sheet via those operations. Skeptics will note that moving “trillions” of dollars into Bitcoin would require not only policy shifts but also market structure capable of absorbing sustained sovereign demand without disorderly volatility. Liquidity depth has improved with US spot ETF adoption and growing derivatives markets, yet Bitcoin’s free float, custody frameworks, and cross-border payment rails still face periodic stress. Morehead, however, situates the thesis in a long arc rather than a short-term trade. “I don’t think it’s gonna happen overnight,” he said, emphasizing a horizon of “a decade or two” and a phased path in which US-aligned adopters pave the way for politically non-aligned states that prize censorship resistance and sanction insulation. For China and Russia specifically, the impetus would be as much strategic as financial. China’s willingness to chip away at Treasuries aligns with its broader push to diversify reserves into gold and other assets, while Russia’s post-2014 and 2022 sanctions experience has already driven a dramatic reconfiguration of its reserve composition. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $112,639. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin price crash began over the weekend and has since seen he digital asset break below the $112,000 support level. Interestingly, this crash was called by a couple of crypto analysts who had pointed out the weaknesses surrounding Bitcoin over this time. As their predictions begin to play out, this report takes a look at the complete forecasts, with most showing that the Bitcoin price crash is far from over and must proceed deeper before finding a bottom. Bitcoin Price Is Headed Below $100,000 Crypto analyst HAMED_AZ had previously pointed out that the Bitcoin price was moving within a descending channel. Since this was a bearish trend, it was expected that the Bitcoin price would begin to crash, and this was the case. There is also the fact that the Bitcoin price had broken its short-term ascending trendline. At the same time, it had also reached the upper boundary of the descending channel, meeting resistance at $117,000-$120,000. As the bears pushed back on the price, the fall had begun. Related Reading: Analyst Predicts XRP Price Will Definitely Reach $10,000, Gives Reasons Why It didn’t help that the resistance was sitting a the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, one of the factors that triggered the corrective move. As the short-term ascending trendline was broken, it empowered the bears to take control of the digital asset once again. Despite the already notable decline, the crypto analyst says that as long as the price stays below $118,000-$120,000, then the bearish pressure will continue. The possible target here is below $106,000, but the descending trendline points to a bottom as low as $96,000 in the worst-case scenario. Bears Are Still In Control Another pseudonymous crypto analyst on the TradingView website has also outlined why the Bitcoin price is bearish. The fact that the digital asset had broken below the ascending trendline, as well as the Ichimoku cloud, suggests that the momentum has turned bearish from here. Related Reading: Solana Faces Deadly Selling Pressure After 312,233 SOL Deposit Into Coinbase – Here’s The Value With the support of $113,00 already lost, the next targets are on the downside. Prices are expected to keep crashing as low as $108,000 before finding a bottom. However, there could be redemption on the horizon if the bulls are able to reclaim the support between $113,000 and $114,500. But a more definite close above $115,000 would completely invalidate the current bearish move. Meanwhile, crypto analysts like CrypFlow on X are more bullish after the decline. The analysis shows that the Bitcoin Bollinger Bands are being squeezed again. There is also a bullish Stochastic RSI cross and a momentum explosion. With all of these developments so close together, the analyst believes that it is only a setup for the Bitcoin price to rally higher. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has seen “buy the dip” mentions spike on social media after the price crash, but Santiment warns this could be a contrarian signal. Social Media Users Are Calling To Buy The Bitcoin Dip In a new Insight post, analytics firm Santiment has talked about how the market has been reacting to the latest plunge in the Bitcoin price. “One of the first things we like to look for is a sign of retailers showing enthusiasm toward buying the dip,” notes Santiment. The indicator cited by the analytics firm is the “Social Volume,” which measures the total amount of posts/messages/threads appearing on the major social media platforms that make unique mentions of a given term or topic. Related Reading: Here’s The Boundary Bitcoin Bulls Must Defend To Save Rally Santiment has filtered the Social Volume for Bitcoin-related keywords and terms pertaining to calls for “buy the dip.” Below is a chart showing the trend in the metric over the past month. As is visible in the graph, the Bitcoin Social Volume has spiked for these terms, indicating that interest in buying the dip has surged among social media users. At the current value, dip-buying calls are at their highest in 25 days. While this could sound like a signal that a rebound may be coming soon for the cryptocurrency, history has had many examples of the contrary. “Prices typically move the opposite direction of the crowd’s expectations,” explains the analytics firm. Considering this, the dip-buying hype could actually be a sign that more pain may be ahead for BTC before the bottom can actually be in. “Once the crowd stops feeling optimistic, and they begin to sell their bags at a loss, this is typically the time to strike with your dip buys,” says Santiment. Another gauge for market sentiment is through the Binance Funding Rate, which is a metric that keeps track of the periodic fee that derivatives traders are exchanging between each other on the largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume. Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Signals ‘Fear’ As Price Falls To $112,000 The indicator turned sharp red just ahead of the latest plummet in the Bitcoin price, indicating that short positions became dominant on Binance. After the decline, however, traders changed their tune as the metric switched back to being green. This trend would suggest that investors are hoping Bitcoin would rebound soon. “Ideally, for a notable price bounce to occur, we need to see a sustained period of shorts outpacing longs,” notes the analytics firm. As such, this could be another indicator to keep an eye on, as a flip into the negative for an extended phase may pave the way toward a bottom. BTC Price Bitcoin has been unable to make recovery from its crash so far as its price continues to trade around $112,700. Featured image from Dall-E, Santiment.net, chart from TradingView.com

As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade in the low $110,000 range, on-chain data shows that a fresh wave of demand has entered the market. Notably, the Net Position Change (NPC) of the youngest cohort of BTC holders has re-entered positive territory, raising hopes for the cryptocurrency to gain bullish momentum. Bitcoin NPC Back In Positive Territory According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Crazzyblockk, the NPC of Bitcoin holders who have held the digital asset for less than one month has decisively flipped into positive territory. This change shows that new demand is flowing into the market at an accelerated rate. Related Reading: Bitcoin Exchange Supply Ratio Declines After Fed Cut, Setting Stage For $120,000 Test Crazzyblockk highlighted that the 30-day change in supply held by wallets younger than one month has surged, hitting as high as +73,702 BTC on September 23. The following chart confirms the uptick following a period of negative action. It is worth emphasizing that the influx of fresh capital into the Bitcoin market is beneficial in helping to absorb the supply being sold by long-term holders (LTH). Typically, LTH refers to holders who have held BTC for more than six months. Currently, these LTH are selling their BTC at a rate of approximately -145,000 BTC, indicative of a typical bull market where early investors realize profits. The analyst added that the fact that selling pressure is being met with strong demand from new entrants is a sign of the rally’s sustainability. The CryptoQuant contributor added that the accumulation is not limited to the newest cohort. Besides the less than one-month cohort, short-term holders (STH) – investors who have held BTC for less than six months – are also accumulating. The STH NPC has changed to +159,098 BTC, cementing the robust demand for the top cryptocurrency by market cap across a spectrum of investors based on their time in the market. Crazzyblockk added: The current dynamic – where profit-taking from long-term investors is being absorbed by a new and enthusiastic wave of buyers – is a classic characteristic of a strengthening bull market. The positive flip in the youngest holder cohort is a leading indicator of broadening market participation and suggests a strong conviction among new investors. This robust demand structure is highly supportive of continued price appreciation in the near to medium term. Some Areas Of Concern For BTC While the demand for BTC from young cohorts is encouraging, some concerns still linger about the digital asset’s near-term price action. For instance, BTC exchange inflows remain elevated, raising fears of greater selling pressure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miners Shift Strategy: Accumulation Over Selling Signals Stronger Bull Cycle Similarly, recent on-chain data shows that BTC’s current rally is primarily being led by retail investors. Bitcoin whales – wallets with significant BTC holdings – are noticeably absent from the current rally. That said, the digital asset’s fundamentals continue to strengthen as the Bitcoin network activity recently reached a new 2025 peak. At press time, BTC trades at $112,804, down 0.2% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Following a period of intense volatility and a significant price movement, Bitcoin’s market is now experiencing a predictable consolidation phase, characterized by what traders call intraday chop. This is not a sign of weakness but rather a natural and often necessary stage in any market cycle. A Necessary Foundation For The Next Move In an X post, a dedicated crypto enthusiast, Uniswap Gems, provided a clear-eyed view of Bitcoin’s current price action, stating that the market is in a predictable phase of intraday chop after a period of extreme volatility.  Related Reading: Countdown To ‘Bitcoin Bottom Day’: Why September 21 Could Change Everything Uniswap Gems noted that the recent huge, volatile move caught many traders off guard. As a result, the market is now in a period of consolidation. This chop is a sideways price movement within a tight range, which is often needed to establish a solid bottom after a sharp price swing. He cautions that this phase could last for the next 2 to 3 days, making it a difficult environment for those looking for quick directional trades. For a bullish trend to resume, BTC needs to flip $113,000 into a support level. If this happens, it could set the stage for a retest of the $115,000 range. However, if BTC fails to hold its current levels and makes new local lows, Uniswap Gems expects a more significant drop all the way down to sub $105,000, which would be a decisive move to the downside. Analyst Philakone, a crypto investor and day trader, has issued a stark reminder about the inherent volatility of BTC and historical price action in bear markets. His analysis focuses on the severe drawdowns that have consistently followed previous all-time highs. According to Philakone, BTC price has a historical tendency to drop between 75% to 85% from its peak during a bear market. This is a crucial point that he believes many people struggle to grasp, especially after a prolonged bull run. However, if BTC’s all-time high for the current cycle reaches $125,000, a 75% drop would bring the price down to a mere $30,000. Market Still Fragile Despite Heavy Liquidations Crypto trader known as KillaXBT has adopted a highly cautious stance on the BTC market. For the first time in a while, the expert is fading this BTC dip despite a massive liquidation event of 1.5 billion. His decision is based on a technical analysis of a key market indicator of the USDT dominance chart. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Retreats Lower Again – Is This Just a Healthy Dip? KillaXBT explains that the USDT.D (Tether Dominance) chart is showing concerning signals. If it breaks above its Equal Highs (EQHs), it could lead to a bigger drop in price. Due to this analysis, he has decided not to open any position in the market and is not looking for either long or short trades. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has revealed where a Bitcoin level historically seen as a key battleground between bulls and bears currently lies. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Is Situated At $111,400 Right Now In a new post on X, Glassnode has talked about the Bitcoin Realized Price of the short-term holders. The “Realized Price” is an on-chain indicator that measures, in short, the average cost basis or acquisition level of the average investor on the BTC network. Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Signals ‘Fear’ As Price Falls To $112,000 When the spot price of the cryptocurrency is trading above this metric, it means the holders as a whole are sitting on some net unrealized profit. On the other hand, being under the indicator implies the overall market is underwater. In the context of the current topic, the Realized Price of a specific part of the blockchain is of interest: the short-term holders (STHs). This cohort includes the investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. Now, here is the chart shared by the analytics firm that shows the trend in the Bitcoin STH Realized Price over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH Realized Price is currently sitting at $111,400, which means that the cryptocurrency’s spot price is trading quite near it. As such, if the asset’s latest bearish momentum continues, a retest of the level could happen. Historically, BTC has had some notable interactions with the metric, with it rotating roles as both support and resistance. The explanation behind this trend lies in the fact that STHs include the most reactive investors in the market. If the mood in the sector is bullish, these traders participate in buying on retests of their cost basis, believing the decline to be just a “dip.” Similarly, they sell at their break-even mark when the sentiment is bearish, fearing that they will drop into losses again. When one of these patterns doesn’t hold for the indicator, it can be a sign that the market structure is shifting. In other words, which side of the line BTC is trading could have an impact on its trajectory. “The short-term holder cost basis is often treated as the key battle line between bulls & bears,” notes Glassnode. Related Reading: Bitcoin Falls Below $113,000, But This Indicator Says It’s Time To Buy Given the relevance that the STH Realized Price has had in the past, a retest for Bitcoin, if one happens, could be worth watching. “Sustained trading below this level could signal a shift toward a mid- to long-term bearish market structure,” explains the analytics firm. BTC Price Bitcoin has been unable to make any recovery since Monday’s plunge as its price is still floating around the $112,800 mark. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin price is falling again this September, but SkyBridge CEO Anthony Scaramucci says there is no reason to call it a crash. He explained on a CNBC Squawk Box segment that the current weakness is part of a regular cycle that happens almost every year. According to the CEO, short-term fluctuations do not alter the broader picture for Bitcoin. For this reason, Scaramucci says he is keeping his bullish outlook and is not changing his prediction. Scaramucci Says Bitcoin Price September Weakness Is Seasonal Anthony Scaramucci says September has historically been a challenging month for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency businesses. In his words, “September lows are typical.” He explained that some of the selling comes from people clearing taxes, while others are simply taking profits after substantial gains from the last few months. Because of this, he does not see the current weakness in the Bitcoin price as a warning sign. Related Reading: Grayscale Files For New Dogecoin ETF Amid Approval Expectations, Is The Next Price Surge Coming? Scaramucci noted that the Bitcoin price has slipped by about three to four percent, but he described this move as “typical volatility.” According to him, the swings of this size are normal in the crypto market and should not discourage investors. He also reminded people that Bitcoin has been around for approximately 15 years and that September has often been a month of price dips. According to him, this is evidence that what is happening now is merely a repetition of the past. Instead of worrying about the drop, Scaramucci wants investors to understand that this is a seasonal pattern and not the start of a collapse. SkyBridge CEO Maintains $150,000 Bitcoin Target For 2025 Even with the September weakness, Scaramucci says the global investment firm remains committed to its prediction that the digital asset could reach $150,000 by the end of 2025.  The SkyBridge CEO remains confident in Bitcoin’s future, explaining that the cryptocurrency’s long-term trajectory continues to point toward significantly higher levels. He believes that strong buying typically occurs in the last two months of the year. Because of this, he thinks November and December will be good times for the market.  Related Reading: XRP Fractal Suggests Price Could Rise Over 100% To $7 In November Scaramucci also observed that the appetite for Bitcoin remains strong. In his view, many people are simply waiting for the right time to make a purchase, and once the seasonal weakness is over, he expects buyers to return in large numbers. The SkyBridge CEO further explained that the current slowdown does not change the bigger trend. He called it only a short break after months of positive moves. Scaramucci’s message is that the September dips do not mean disaster. According to him, the long-term direction remains certain, and the Bitcoin price is still on track for significant gains as the year progresses. Featured image from DALL.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is holding above the $110,000 level after a turbulent Monday that saw billions of dollars in liquidations across the crypto market. The sharp correction erased much of last week’s gains and reminded investors of the volatility that continues to define this cycle. Despite the heavy selling pressure, BTC has managed to stabilize near a key liquidity zone, where bulls and bears are now battling for control. Related Reading: Aster Forms Bullish Hammer At Key Support – Reversal Setup? The mood across the market remains cautious as traders weigh the potential for further downside. Some analysts warn that Bitcoin could retest lower support levels if bearish momentum strengthens, while others argue that the retrace is part of a healthy reset after an overheated rally. Top analyst Axel Adler shared insights revealing that the risk of further bearish pressure from liquidations is medium. Data shows that net liquidations remain negative, reflecting ongoing long wipeouts that continue to weigh on price action. However, Adler noted that the liquidation intensity is not at cascade levels, meaning that while headwinds persist, the market lacks the fuel for a deep liquidation-driven collapse. Liquidation Risk: Pressure Without Cascade According to Axel Adler, Bitcoin’s recent downturn is being shaped by ongoing long liquidations. Net liquidations remain negative near −$40 million, underscoring the fact that many overleveraged positions are still being flushed out of the market. This persistent wave of long wipeouts is applying steady downside pressure, preventing BTC from mounting a strong recovery after its recent rejection above $115K. Despite these pressures, Adler highlights a crucial point: the Liquidation Intensity Z-Score (365d) is at a neutral to moderate level. This signals that while liquidations are forcing traders out of their positions, they are not large enough to trigger a cascading selloff. In other words, the current market drawdown is painful, but it lacks the systemic fuel for a deep liquidation-driven collapse similar to what has occurred during prior cycle tops. This distinction is vital for understanding Bitcoin’s current market structure. While headwinds remain as the market forces leveraged traders to reset, the underlying trend shows resilience. Because liquidations aren’t extremely intense, BTC could find stability once it clears out the weak hands. Adler notes that the market now sits at a crossroads: continued liquidation pressure could grind prices lower in the short term, but without cascading risk, Bitcoin has the capacity to consolidate and rebuild momentum. As fresh capital enters and the market clears out leveraged excess, it may support a healthier, more sustainable advance in the months ahead. In this context, don’t view the correction solely as a bearish signal. Instead, it reflects a broader market reset—necessary for removing excess leverage and laying the groundwork for Bitcoin’s next decisive move. Related Reading: Crypto Leverage Whipeout: $600M+ In BTC & ETH Longs Liquidated Price Action Details Bitcoin is trading near $113,025, struggling to reclaim levels above $115K after the recent selloff. The chart shows BTC moving below its 50-day and 100-day moving averages (MAs), both of which now act as resistance around $114,600–$115,000. The 200-day MA, currently near $115,077, reinforces this resistance cluster, signaling that BTC must overcome heavy technical barriers to regain bullish momentum. On the downside, BTC found temporary support at $112,900, with buyers stepping in to prevent further losses. If this level fails, the next support lies closer to $110K, which aligns with prior consolidation zones and liquidity pools. A break below could open the door toward $108K, intensifying bearish sentiment. Related Reading: Tron Integration Marks Next Phase Of PayPal USD’s Multi-Chain Growth – Details Price action also reveals lower highs forming since the rejection near $118K, highlighting fading bullish strength. Still, the broader structure suggests BTC remains in a consolidation phase rather than a complete trend reversal, as long as $110K holds. In the short term, traders will be watching if Bitcoin can reclaim the 115K zone, which would signal renewed momentum. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin is once again at a turning point as the market struggles to recover from heavy selling pressure. After losing the $115,000 level earlier this week, BTC is now fighting to hold $110,000, a threshold that many investors see as critical for maintaining short-term stability. The sharp drop has shaken confidence, with traders increasingly concerned about the possibility of a deeper correction if support fails. Related Reading: Aster Forms Bullish Hammer At Key Support – Reversal Setup? Market sentiment has shifted quickly from bullish optimism to caution, as volatility rises and momentum fades. The broader crypto market has mirrored Bitcoin’s moves, with altcoins also suffering significant declines. This phase of consolidation and retracement has left investors uncertain, unsure whether the recent dip represents a temporary pullback or the beginning of a larger corrective phase. Amid this turbulence, top analyst Darkfost highlighted a key onchain signal: it has been another painful day for short-term holders (STHs). Data shows that STHs realized losses of around 30,000 BTC in just one day. For many of the most recent buyers, unrealized profits have already evaporated, with some now selling at steep losses. Bitcoin STH Face Losses, But Market Outlook Holds Darkfost’s recent analysis highlights the mounting pressure on Bitcoin’s short-term holders (STHs). With BTC trading near $111,400, most of their unrealized profits have been nearly wiped out, leaving the newest market entrants facing realized losses. Data shows that STHs collectively absorbed an estimated 30,000 BTC in losses in a single day, underscoring the severity of the recent correction. For traders, this has been painful, but Darkfost argues it is actually constructive for the short-term outlook. He explains that when STHs capitulate, it often acts as a cleansing event for the market. Excessive leverage is flushed out, weak hands exit their positions, and the supply overhang diminishes. While “annoying in the very, very short term,” as Darkfost puts it, such resets typically create stronger foundations for the next move higher. This pattern has been observed in previous cycles, where brief periods of realized losses paved the way for sustained rallies once selling pressure subsided. At the macro level, conditions remain challenging as global markets digest tighter liquidity and slower economic growth. Still, many analysts believe Bitcoin is well-positioned in the long run, particularly as institutional adoption and regulatory clarity progress. In their view, current volatility may simply be part of the transition toward a healthier and more resilient market structure. Related Reading: Crypto Leverage Whipeout: $600M+ In BTC & ETH Longs Liquidated Price Analysis: Testing Support After Breakdown Bitcoin’s price action shows clear weakness after losing the $115K level, with the chart now testing support near $113K. The breakdown comes as the bullish momentum that fueled previous rallies fades, leaving BTC vulnerable to volatility. Currently, price trades below the 50-day moving average, signaling pressure in the short term. The 100-day SMA around $113,337 is now acting as a key support level, and its defense will be crucial to avoid a deeper correction. The recent drop highlights a rejection near the $123K resistance zone, where the market failed to build sustained momentum. If Bitcoin manages to hold above the $113K area, consolidation could follow before another attempt at recovery. However, a decisive move below this level risks exposing BTC to the $110K psychological level, where buyers are likely to step in. Related Reading: Tron Integration Marks Next Phase Of PayPal USD’s Multi-Chain Growth – Details Momentum indicators suggest the market remains in a corrective phase rather than a full reversal, with higher lows still intact from June levels. As long as BTC avoids a breakdown below $110K, the broader bullish structure remains valid. Traders will closely watch whether Bitcoin can stabilize above its current support or whether further selling pressure from long-term holders and broader market uncertainty drags it lower. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Ostium Research’s latest weekly note opened with Bitcoin under pressure after a swift selloff into the new week, describing “a mass liquidation event” that pushed price as low as $111,761, after rejection near resistance in the mid-$117,000s. The team frames the drawdown as part of a previously flagged “window of weakness… into early October,” while stressing the higher-timeframe uptrend remains intact unless key weekly levels fail. The report, published September 22, 2025, sets out both the technical map and the event calendar that could govern path-dependency over the next several sessions. Bitcoin Crash To $99,000 Looms On the weekly chart, Ostium notes last week’s consolidation around the August open and a wick into “key resistance… at $117.5k,” followed by a close marginally below the open. Early-week price action then carried price beneath reclaimed support into the $111k handle, with the analysts highlighting “over $1.6bn in longs liquidated so far today.” Two structural inflection zones anchor the bearish risk: “Acceptance below $107k on a weekly close would open up more downside into $99k,” whereas on the topside “the weekly high at $115.3k… is at least revisited some time later in the week.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Signals ‘Fear’ As Price Falls To $112,000 On the daily timeframe, the August open at $115.7k is the pivot the market must reclaim to reassert momentum. As the authors put it, “that August open at $115.7k [is] a key level to flip into support to resume bullishness.” The immediate battleground is the prior all-time high at $112k, where “a reclaim of $112k as support” would tilt probabilities toward a higher low and force shorts to cover into a move back through $115.7k. Their base case, however, is for additional chop “between $112k-$115k before a second push lower below today’s low,” which will determine whether the market undercuts the June swing at $107k or marks out a bottom sooner. Tactically, Ostium lays out both long and short triggers with unusual clarity. On the long side: “a sweep of today’s low early this week and then a reclaim of $112k as support,” riding momentum “back into the weekly high.” On the short side, they float what they call “a really nice short setup… a sharp v-reversal… back above the weekly high… before… rejecting and breaking back below $115.3k,” which would then target “$112k and lower.” In other words, a squeeze-then-fade path that punishes both late longs and late shorts. Related Reading: Bitcoin Stuck In Neutral While Markets Roar — Analyst Explains Why Positioning and derivatives breadth round out the near-term blueprint. The note shares snapshots of 3-month annualized basis, Bitcoin versus altcoin open interest, and one-week/one-month liquidation maps, underscoring how quickly liquidity pockets can flip into magnets in thin conditions. This informs their near-term expectation that “the next leg lower or second liquidation event this week [could] be a high probability low,” followed by a retest of $115.3k that will act as the tape’s verdict on whether another down-leg or a bear-trap reversal is in play into quarter-end. The house view remains probabilistic rather than doctrinaire. If $107k fails on a weekly close, the weakness window could extend into “$99k”; if it holds—and especially if the market can “flip $115.7k into support”—the higher-low narrative stays alive. In the authors’ words, for Ethereum “nothing about this higher timeframe structure or momentum is currently giga-bearish,” and, by analogy, Bitcoin’s structure is best judged by the reaction around $111.7k–$112k this week. Whether today’s flush proves to be prelude to capitulation or the trap before new highs, Ostium’s bottom line is clear: “we move much higher from early October” unless those weekly thresholds are accepted lower. At press time, BTC traded at $113,002. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Reports have disclosed that Deutsche Bank research sees room for Bitcoin to sit alongside gold on some central bank balance sheets by 2030. The bank’s paper says that both assets can act as hedges against certain risks and that the path Bitcoin would follow mirrors gold’s slow adoption into official reserves. Related Reading: Dogecoin Warning: Double Top Formation Hints At Decline – Analyst Central Banks Could Add Bitcoin According to Deutsche Bank, Bitcoin’s market traits are shifting. Short-term volatility has fallen recently, and prices even topped $123,000 in the run-up to the report, signals the bank flagged as part of Bitcoin’s maturing profile. While gold keeps drawing strong official demand, the report says central banks may begin treating Bitcoin as a complementary store of value rather than a replacement for existing reserve assets. The Bank’s View On Gold And Money Deutsche Bank points out that gold buying by official institutions remains robust. In fact, the bank has moved its own gold forecasts higher as bullion rallies, noting demand from some countries is running well above past averages. This stronger taste for bullion is one reason the bank sees space for two scarce assets — physical gold and Bitcoin — to coexist in official portfolios. Volatility And Supply Points Based on reports, one part of the argument rests on supply dynamics. Bitcoin’s fixed maximum supply — 21 million coins — and growing institutional accumulation have tightened available market supply in recent periods. At the same time, the study notes Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility recently hit historic lows, a fact that analysts say reduces one major hurdle to reserve adoption. Still, big price swings remain possible and would be closely watched by any central bank considering a holdings shift. How Adoption Might Happen Deutsche Bank compares Bitcoin’s likely adoption path to how gold entered reserves: slowly, with legal and operational processes built around custody, accounting and valuation. Reports say the US dollar would remain dominant as the world’s main reserve currency, but some diversification into non-dollar assets could push officials to explore alternatives including Bitcoin. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is ‘Digital Capital’ That Outpaces Traditional Assets—Michael Saylor Policy And Practical Hurdles Legal and technical issues are still on the table. Custody solutions must meet the security standards central banks require. Rules in many jurisdictions would need updating to allow sovereign institutions to hold crypto. Political views will matter too; recent debates about central bank independence and rate policy have added friction to major reserve decisions, including concerns raised around actions by US President Donald Trump that some analysts say could influence monetary policy. Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView

Data shows the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has slipped back into the fear territory following the crash in the cryptocurrency’s price. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Suggests Investors Now Fearful The “Fear & Greed Index” refers to an indicator created by Alternative that tells us about the average sentiment present among traders in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency markets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Falls Below $113,000, But This Indicator Says It’s Time To Buy The index uses the data of the following five factors to determine the investor mentality: volatility, trading volume, market cap dominance, social media sentiment, and Google Trends. It then represents the calculated sentiment as a score lying between zero and hundred. All values above 53 correspond to a net sentiment of greed, while those under 47 imply the presence of fear in the market. A value between these two thresholds naturally corresponds to a neutral mentality. Now, here is how the sentiment among Bitcoin traders is currently like, according to the Fear & Greed Index: As is visible above, the index has a value of 45 at the moment, indicating that the investors are fearful, although only to a slight degree. The fear value is a new shift for the market, with this being the first time since September 7th that the metric has dipped into the zone. The worsening of sentiment is a result of the bearish price action that Bitcoin and other digital assets have faced recently, with prices across the sector observing a particularly sharp drop during the last 24 hours. The turn to fear, however, may actually not be a bad sign for the market, if the past is anything to go by. Historically, BTC and company have tended to move in the direction that goes contrary to the expectations of the crowd. The probability of such an opposite move occurring generally only goes up the more sure the traders become of a direction. On the Fear & Greed Index, there are two regions where this likelihood becomes the strongest: extreme fear (below 25) and extreme greed (above 75). The former is where major bottoms have occurred in the past, while the latter has facilitated top formations. While the investor sentiment is currently far from turning into extreme fear, the fact that investors are no longer greedy could still be a positive for the bull run’s hopes. It only remains to be seen, though, how things would play out for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Related Reading: Dogecoin Ready To Bark Again? Analyst Sees Path To $0.45 In some other news, the latest market crash induced a large amount of liquidations in the derivatives market, but speculators haven’t become discouraged by the squeeze, as CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has explained in an X post. As displayed in the above chart, the Open Interest plummeted alongside the Bitcoin price plunge, but it has already made some recovery with a jump of $1 billion (2.63%). BTC Price Bitcoin has come down to the $12,600 level following its latest plummet. Featured image from Dall-E, Alternative.me, charts from TradingView.com

According to data from Coinglass, the crypto market saw liquidations worth more than $1.6 billion over the past 24 hours, with the majority of them being long positions. Elevated exchange inflows threaten to crash Bitcoin (BTC) further below the important support level at $112,000. Bitcoin Tumbles, Will It Lose $112,000? Bitcoin fell from around $116,000 to as low as $111,800 earlier today, as the broader cryptocurrency market experienced volatility amid concerns about the US government shutdown. Prediction markets on Kalshi are currently giving a 70% chance of a shutdown in 2025. Related Reading: Bitcoin Exchange Supply Ratio Declines After Fed Cut, Setting Stage For $120,000 Test Commenting on today’s BTC price action, CryptoQuant contributor PelinayPA remarked that at the end of August and early September, almost 65,000 BTC were withdrawn from exchanges, which coincided with a price recovery in the digital asset. The analyst shared the following chart, which shows BTC withdrawals from exchanges. Typically, large outflows from trading platforms indicate that investors are moving their holdings to personal wallets – reducing immediate selling pressure and signaling a bullish trend. That said, recent trends suggest that such outflows have weakened. Specifically, since September 20, exchange data shows that more investors are choosing to keep their coins on exchanges. PelinayPA shared another chart which shows BTC deposits to exchanges. Notably, between September 17 and 19, Bitcoin inflows to exchanges surged to nearly 40,000, while the price tumbled to $117,000. For the uninitiated, high BTC inflows to exchanges usually imply that investors are moving their coins from private wallets to platforms where they can be sold, signaling increased selling intent. This creates short-term bearish pressure on price, as higher supply on exchanges can outweigh demand.  The CryptoQuant analyst added that during the rally between September 7 and 15, BTC outflows from exchanges exceeded inflows, supporting bullish momentum. However, inflows surpassed outflows after September 17, triggering strong selling pressure and pushing BTC down to $112,700. She concluded: Inflows remain high while outflows are relatively weak, indicating short-term downside pressure. If outflows increase again, signaling accumulation, BTC could rebound strongly from the $112K zone. Otherwise, further downside risk remains. Should BTC Holders Be Worried? Bitcoin’s fall to $112,000 should not come as a surprise. Recent on-chain data had already hinted that BTC could be in trouble due to a lack of whale participation in the recent rally.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Faces Supply Squeeze As Scarcity Index Turns Positive Again It is worth highlighting that BTC’s latest fall in price came shortly after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Although the flagship cryptocurrency fell, experts believe that it is still far from a real capitulation. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju recently predicted that BTC could top out at $208,000 during the ongoing market cycle. At press time, BTC trades at $113,175, down 2.1% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Bitcoin has slipped under the $113,000 level during the past day, but an analyst has pointed out how a technical indicator could suggest this is a buying opportunity. TD Sequential Has Just Given A Buy Signal For Bitcoin In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about how the Tom Demark (TD) Sequential has just formed a signal for Bitcoin on its 4-hour price chart. The TD Sequential is an indicator from technical analysis (TA) that’s used for locating potential points of reversal in an asset’s price. Related Reading: Dogecoin Ready To Bark Again? Analyst Sees Path To $0.45 The indicator involves two phases. In the first of these, known as the setup, it counts candles of the same color up to nine. Once the ninth candle is in, it gives a turnaround signal for the asset. Naturally, the signal is a buy one if the preceding candles were red and a sell one if they were green. As soon as the setup is over, the second phase, called the countdown, kicks off. The countdown works much like the setup, with the key difference being that the indicator counts up thirteen candles here, not nine. Following these thirteen candles, the price trend is considered to have reached exhaustion once more. In other words, the asset may have reached another top or bottom. Bitcoin has completed a TD Sequential phase of the first type recently. Below is the chart shared by Martinez that shows the signal forming in BTC’s 4-hour price. From the graph, it’s visible that the TD Sequential has completed this setup with nine red candles, which implies Bitcoin may have arrived at some sort of bottom. The signal has come as the cryptocurrency’s price has plummeted and retraced its recent recovery. It now remains to be seen whether the buy setup will hold, or if there is more decline coming for the asset. Related Reading: Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Plunges 6.7% As Social Media Shows Overhype In another X post, the analyst has talked about a potential pattern forming for Bitcoin that could also point to a bullish outcome. As displayed in the above chart, Bitcoin’s 4-hour price has potentially been following an inverse head-and-shoulders. This pattern appears whenever an asset’s price registers a low (called the head) between two higher lows (the shoulders). BTC has formed the left shoulder and head so far, with the right shoulder possibly brewing with the price crash. In the scenario that the right shoulder does get confirmed, a bullish breakout may follow for the cryptocurrency, since an inverse head-and-shoulders is generally considered to be a bullish reversal pattern. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $112,300, down over 2.5% in the last 24 hours. Featured image from Dall-E, charts from TradingView.com

The cryptocurrency market began the week with a notable downturn, as total sector capitalization dipped toward $3.8 trillion. Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, experienced a significant correction, trading as low as $112,700.  CoinGecko data shows that this decline had a ripple effect, causing major altcoins such as Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Solana (SOL), and Dogecoin (DOGE) to register losses of 7%, 5%, 7%, and 10%, respectively. S&P 500 Rises While Crypto Market Slumps The selloff also impacted crypto-related stocks. Bitcoin investment firm Strategy (MSTR) saw a decline of 2.6%, while US-based crypto asset exchange Coinbase fell by 3.4% during afternoon trading. In contrast, the benchmark S&P 500 index managed to gain 0.4%, positioning itself for another potential all-time high. Related Reading: Ethereum Slides 6% as Bulls Lose Grip on $4,500 Resistance; $4,000 Incoming? Analysts suggest that the recent market slump can be attributed to a buildup of excess leverage following last Thursday’s Federal Reserve (Fed) decision to cut interest rates.  Adam Morgan McCarthy, head of research at Kaiko, indicated that funding rates have risen since the Fed meeting, pointing to speculative trading that may have occurred in the wake of the rate cut.  He noted that the combination of excess leverage from speculative bets and an earlier price decline triggered a wave of liquidations, further exacerbating the market downturn. Deutsche Bank Predicts Bitcoin Recovery  The Fed’s decision to lower borrowing costs by a quarter point marked its first rate cut of 2025. However, as Barron’s reported on Monday, Chair Jerome Powell characterized this move as a “risk-management cut,” implying a cautious approach rather than a wholesale easing of monetary policy. Related Reading: Bitcoin Stuck In Neutral While Markets Roar — Analyst Explains Why Despite the immediate challenges facing the cryptocurrency market, the longer-term outlook appears optimistic. Deutsche Bank strategist Marion Laboure expressed confidence in Bitcoin’s recovery, predicting it could surpass $120,000 by the end of 2025. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s listless tape in the face of roaring macro risk is less a contradiction than a timing problem, argues this week’s edition of The Weekly Insight (Week 160, Sept. 20, 2025). Writing under the banner “Why’s BTC Lagging?”, contributor @CryptoinsightUK sets a decisively constructive medium-term tone—“I want to start this week by saying I am bullish, and I will continue to be bullish until I believe we are close to a top”—while acknowledging that the market feels late-cycle and emotionally frayed. “With that said, I do think we are closer to a top than a low here,” he adds, but the author still believes “we are approaching the most euphoric stage of this bull cycle.” Why Is Bitcoin Lagging? The piece pins much of today’s malaise on sentiment reflexivity. Crypto-Twitter’s grinding negativity is described as a view-generating feedback loop that makes the market feel heavier than it is. “That lag can feel frustrating,” the author writes, noting that the Fear & Greed Index has not displayed the clustered “extreme greed” readings that characterized the 2021 double-top. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price On The Verge Of Explosive Move: Here’s The Only Condition Aside from a burst of exuberance around late-2024/early-2025—“which coincided with XRP’s rally from around 50 cents to $2.70, eventually topping out at about $3.30 to $3.40”—the index has hovered in the mid-range, far from the blow-off conditions that typically mark cycle peaks. The implication is straightforward: despite the noise, the market has yet to show the classic euphoria clusters that precede tops. Macro correlations, often invoked to explain Bitcoin’s leadership or underperformance, are used here to argue for lag rather than breakdown. On M2 money supply, the author reiterates a well-tracked three-month linkage: “Bitcoin and the M2 money supply have correlated closely so far, but in the last two to three months M2 has absolutely ripped higher.” From here, readers can “either argue that the correlation has broken down, or that Bitcoin is simply lagging and has yet to catch up.” A similar read extends to gold. Directional leadership has alternated between the two assets, but with bullion pressing higher, a catch-up in BTC would “imply a move towards at least $135,000, compared to the current level of around $115,000.” Equities tell the same story in another register: the Nasdaq, Dow Jones, S&P, and Russell 2000 are at or near fresh all-time highs while Bitcoin has “mostly chopped sideways,” again “looking as though it may be lagging behind.” Market microstructure adds a decisive layer. The letter emphasizes the interaction between visible liquidity pockets and consolidation dynamics. “Every single time there has been a significant liquidity build up, Bitcoin has eventually run through it.” As price has stepped higher, resting liquidity has thickened—“red indicates the deepest liquidity, orange the next, and green the lightest”—and breakouts have been most forceful once those deep pockets were taken. The example given is the “run from $70k to $100k,” where “heavy consolidation was followed by an explosive breakout.” By that logic, the current map “is pointing to a move toward $140k or higher,” which also dovetails with the gold-parity argument. The author’s metaphor is telling: “I often explain price action like stored energy. The longer it consolidates and charges, the bigger the eventual release.” What Role Do Altcoins Play? The most forceful claim in the issue is not about Bitcoin at all but about altcoins. Both Total2 (crypto ex-BTC) and Total3 (crypto ex-BTC and ETH) are said to have “closed a daily candle into price discovery.” Total2 “closed a weekly all time high and is now extremely close to closing a second consecutive weekly high,” while Total3 sits “right on the edge of breaking into new all-time highs.” Structurally, the report frames Total2 as completing a Wyckoff accumulation and cup-and-handle, and Total3 as carving an ascending triangle poised for continuation. The combination—alts pressing price discovery while Bitcoin “is preparing to push to new highs”—is the setup the author associates with “mania or euphoria.” It is also the basis for a clear positioning disclosure: “it is exactly why I am fully positioned in altcoins here.” Related Reading: Total Illiquid Bitcoin Has Reached 72% Of Supply, What Does This Mean For Price? That rotation view is bolstered by a call on Bitcoin dominance. The author reiterates a long-held target: “I think we are heading down to at least the 35.5 percent level, and potentially even into the low 20s.” The historical analogs are unambiguous: from the 2017 highs, dominance “dropped by 62 percent,” and from the 2021 highs it “dropped by 46 percent,” each time accompanied by an acceleration in the monthly decline. If a similar acceleration coincides with BTC “ripping to new all time highs,” the result would be “a face melting altcoin rally that most people cannot even imagine right now.” The letter links this purely market-internal setup with external catalysts, citing “major legislative shifts in the largest financial economy in the world” and “the potential influx of trillions of dollars through stablecoins and the Clarity Act, which could be passed as soon as November.” Where Is Bitcoin Price Heading Next? The issue closes with a complementary technical brief by @thecryptomann1 that brings the near-term risk map into focus. For BTC spot, “decision time… is fast approaching,” with the zone between $111,000 and $115,000 flagged as “huge.” Lose it, and “the liquidity around the $105K range feels inevitable.” Exchange-side order-book heatmaps show “a chunk of liquidity sitting here across all exchanges,” suggesting elevated volatility if tested. The analyst doesn’t force a directional call—“I’m unsure which way the market swings”—and labels aggressive speculation “dangerous” in the current chop. A second lens comes via USDT dominance (USDT.D), which the analyst inverts to track risk appetite. The metric has been “stuck in [a] range for the past 15 months or so,” but structurally “looks like a chart that’s on its way to revisit its highs (which, in reality, are the lows).” The stated target remains 3.76%. The logic is deliberately simple—range structure, a hold of the 0.5 retracement, persistence in trend, and defense of a key “blue box” support—each pointing “to strength,” i.e., room for risk to keep advancing before stablecoin dominance rises again. That underpins a tactical approach: “The way I’m playing it is swinging long until USDT.D hits 3.76%, then de-risking. That’s not financial advice, just the way I’m approaching it.” The short-term “max pain” path is sketched with characteristic market irony. One plausible sequence is “$BTC pushing up to $120,000, everyone panicking and going long, fueling the liquidity below us, and then sweeping the lows.” The analyst cautions that a straight drop to the “low $100,000 range” feels “too obvious,” but concedes that both upside and downside liquidity are attractors in a compressed-volatility environment. The mood music for traders is summed, wryly, in a single line: “it’s getting squeaky bum time.” At press time, BTC traded at $112,712. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s slow ascent towards establishing new highs has continuously encountered significant opposition in the past few weeks. As the market currently stands in an uncertain zone, there are several questions and concerns about the future trajectory of the premier cryptocurrency. Below is how the latest on-chain data answers some of these questions How $117,000 Slowed Down BTC’s Rise In a September 20 post on social media platform X, Alphractal founder and CEO Joao Wedson reemphasized his early prediction of $117,000 as a critical resistance zone for the Bitcoin price. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Drops To $115K After Rate-Cut Rally — But BTC Far From Capitulation Wedson referenced his post published exactly a week ago, which utilized two main on-chain metrics — the CVDD (Cumulative Value Days Destroyed) Channel, and the Fibonacci-Adjusted Market Mean Price — in reaching his conclusion. For context, the CVDD Channel is centered around the amount of aged capital being sent into the market. This metric is typically used in highlighting zones of long-term support or resistance based on the movement of aged coins. Also, the Market Mean Price is the cost basis, on average, of all Bitcoin holders. By extension, the Fibonacci-Adjusted Market Mean Price is a metric that shows the average cost basis of Bitcoin, adjusted with specific Fibonacci ratios. It displays mathematical levels of extension or retracement around the Bitcoin average holder’s cost. According to the analyst, these two metrics had aligned perfectly, pointing out $117,000 as a zone where retracement was likely to occur. The convergence of these metrics showed not just the technical significance of this price level, but also reflected strong indecision in the market.  What’s Next For Bitcoin? In the same post on X, Wedson pointed out specific price actions to watch out for in terms of Bitcoin’s price progression and what a potential breach could mean. Looking at the upside case, the analyst explained that a breakout above $118,600 would be a strong confirmation of heightening bullish momentum, which could “open the path for the next explosive move.” Related Reading: Crypto Founder Says Bitcoin Price At $100,000 Is Cheap, Reveals Real Cycle Peak Value Wedson also warned about a potential downside, which hinges on a break below the $113,700 support. According to the crypto founder, this support breach could lead to a swift decline of Bitcoin’s value to as low as $110,000. A deeper correction could even drag Bitcoin to as low as $100,000—a price level that may attract institutions for accumulation. As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $115,660, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours. Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

The price of Bitcoin has had a mixed performance over the past week, falling beneath the $115,000 mark at the start of the period. While the premier cryptocurrency made a play for $118,000 following the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates, the BTC price is now back to around where it started the week. However, the latest on-chain data suggests that a stronger price performance is not too far in Bitcoin’s future. On-Chain Transactions On The Rise In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, market analyst CryptoOnchain published that there has been a notable uptick in activity on the Bitcoin network. The on-chain pundit shared that this recent surge in network activity could have significant effects on the price trajectory of the world’s largest cryptocurrency.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Signals Bullish Edge As Traders Eye Fed Pivot CryptoOnchain based this report on the Transaction Count metric, which tracks the number of confirmed transactions on a blockchain network (Bitcoin, in this case) at a given time. According to the analyst, the 14-day Simple Moving Average (SMA-14) of the cryptocurrency’s transaction count surged to as high as 540,000, marking a peak level for the year 2025.  As highlighted by CryptOnchain, a surge in a network’s transaction count typically suggests a significant increase in the fundamental demand and network usage. The pundit also explained that this demand may have been amplified by protocols such as Bitcoin Ordinals and Runes. Network Demand Meets Bullish Momentum  According to CryptoOnchain, the notable thing about this on-chain development is the bullish convergence between the metric and Bitcoin’s price since July. The online pundit pointed out that, unlike previous periods of divergence, the current broader price rally is supported by a spike in network activity. Because of this aforementioned “bullish convergence”, the credibility of an uptrend can be further strengthened, as it is not just a result of pure speculation.  If anything is to be expected in the days to come, it is that Bitcoin’s price action will reflect a strong bullish momentum. With important advice as a parting note, CryptoOnchain explained that further price momentum hinges on the sustenance of the currently high on-chain activity. As a result, the on-chain activity should be closely watched when making decisions in the market. As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at about $115,744, reflecting an over 1% decline in the past 24 hours. While the market leader seems to be under a slight bearish pressure, a broader look shows that BTC is only stuck in a consolidation range. According to data from CoinGecko, the flagship cryptocurrency has barely changed in the past week. Related Reading: $1 Million Bitcoin Is Coming: Arthur Hayes Says Fed Just Pulled The Trigger Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

The total illiquid Bitcoin has reached a new high, providing a bullish outlook for the flagship crypto. This refers to the BTC supply that is unlikely to hit the open, given the long-term holding of the investors who own these coins.  Bitcoin’s Illiquid Supply Hits New High Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin’s illiquid supply has reached a new high of 14.3 million BTC, marking over 72% of the flagship’s circulating supply. This supply is held by long-term holders (LTHs) who haven’t moved their coins in over seven years, highlighting a strong conviction in the flagship crypto.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Eyes Demand Zones In Higher Timeframes – Here’s The Target A large part of Bitcoin’s supply being in the hands of long-term holders is typically bullish, as it continuously reduces the amount of selling pressure on the coin. It could also lead to a potential supply shock, whereby demand outpaces supply.  Asset manager Fidelity stated in a research report that this new demand for BTC, coupled with a fixed supply and decreasing issuance schedule, was what likely sparked the rally to a new all-time high (ATH) above $124,000. Fidelity further predicted that this upward trend for the Bitcoin price could continue in the years ahead.  Meanwhile, Fidelity highlighted two distinct cohorts that satisfy the threshold of Bitcoin’s illiquid supply. The first is the BTC that was last moved seven or more years ago, while the second is public companies that hold at least 1,000 BTC. Michael Saylor’s Strategy leads the latter as his company currently holds 638,985 BTC, which accounts for over 3% of Bitcoin’s total supply. Strategy hasn’t sold any coin since it began accumulating in 2020.  Fidelity predicts that the combined group will hold over six million Bitcoin by the end of 2025 or over 28% of the crypto’s total supply of 21 million. The asset manager noted that BTC’s illiquid supply has only decreased quarter-over-quarter once in its history.  BTC’s Scarcity May Become Its “Focal Point” Fidelity predicts that over time, Bitcoin’s scarcity may become the focal point as more entities buy and hold BTC long term. They noted that the illiquid supply could rise drastically if nation-state adoption increases and the regulatory environment continues to evolve. Countries like the U.S. are already looking to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, which could create a massive supply shock.  Related Reading: Crypto Founder Says Bitcoin Price At $100,000 Is Cheap, Reveals Real Cycle Peak Value On the other hand, Fidelity noted that there is the possibility of large amounts of Bitcoin’s illiquid supply being transferred. This could happen as long-term holders and public companies move to realize gains, possibly due to a significant price appreciation. The asset manager earlier mentioned that early signs of potential capitulation may already be emerging as 80,000 ancient BTC were sold in July 2025.   At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $115,600, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Strategy’s long-running bet on Bitcoin remains at the heart of the debate over the asset’s place in finance. Based on reports, the firm now holds more than 638,500 BTC, a stake that Saylor has said is worth “tens of billions” of dollars. Related Reading: FalconX Moves 413K Solana Worth $98M – Impact On SOL Price That stockpile has shaped both the company’s identity and Michael Saylor’s public message since Strategy began buying Bitcoin in 2020. Saylor Predicts Long Run Outperformance According to Saylor’s recent interview on Coin Stories, Bitcoin will outperform the S&P 500 “forever.” He went further, saying the S&P 500 would lose nearly 29% each year when measured against Bitcoin for the next 21 years. Those are among the most aggressive public forecasts he has voiced. He also pointed to Bitcoin’s returns over the past 10 years as proof that the gap already exists. My discussion with @NatBrunell on the digital transformation and reinvigoration of capital markets through digital credit instruments — $STRK $STRF $STRD $STRC — built on $BTC digital capital.pic.twitter.com/t8AcsgdiKF — Michael Saylor (@saylor) September 19, 2025 Saylor Frames Bitcoin As Digital Capital And New Collateral Based on reports, Saylor described Bitcoin as a form of “digital capital” that could be used to back loans and other credit instruments. He argued that a fixed supply and decentralized network give Bitcoin a more predictable long-term path than fiat money. Policy action is part of his effort. Meetings with other crypto executives, including talks about a strategic Bitcoin reserve bill, were mentioned as steps toward making the asset more widely accepted in finance and policy circles. Claims About Fiat And Collateral Face Real Tests Saylor contrasted Bitcoin with the US dollar and with conventional collateral, saying currencies suffer from long-term depreciation tied to inflation and central bank policy. But critics point to Bitcoin’s price swings and regulatory uncertainty as real obstacles to using it as stable collateral. Some risk would be built into any credit product that leans heavily on a volatile asset. These concerns have been raised by market participants and remain part of the public record. Related Reading: From $2 Trillion To $400T? CEO Sees Bitcoin Exploding 200x – Here’s More Strategy’s Corporate Path And Index Eligibility Saylor explained why Strategy is not yet in the S&P 500. He said the company needed changes in fair value accounting and sustained profitability before it could be considered. Reports show the company only began its major Bitcoin purchases in 2020 and has since anchored much of its corporate strategy to the coin. That strategy continues to shape investor views of the company’s earnings and balance sheet. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

On Thursday, September 18, the Bitcoin price enjoyed some form of rejuvenation following the outcome of the United States Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced an interest rate cut for the first time in 2025. The general crypto market rallied on the back of this rate cut announcement, with the Bitcoin price running to a monthly high and almost breaking above the $118,000 level on the day. However, the premier cryptocurrency has failed to build on this momentum, retreating to around $115,500 on Friday, September 19. With price unable to sustain a serious rally, the question on the other side is—is the Bitcoin market on the brink of capitulation? BTC Market Shows Zero Signs Of Capitulation In a post on social media platform X, market analytics firm Alphractal revealed that the Bitcoin market is far from price capitulation. According to the blockchain platform, the Bitcoin price has shown no signs of capitulation for over a year—since July 2024. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Forecast: Expert Predicts 70% Chance Of New Highs Within Two Weeks This on-chain observation is based on the Market Capitulation Index (0 – 3), which tracks potential periods of intense downward price movement. This metric is based on three stress signals: Hash capitulation (>30% decline in 30 days), price capitulation (>50% drop), and supply capitulation (7-day active supply >15%), with each signal contributing a point apiece. According to Alphractal, scores of around 2 – 3 for the Market Capitulation Index indicate severe market stress and potential capitulation. Typically, high values for this metric suggest extreme selling pressure. Meanwhile, scores between 0 and 1 signal normal market conditions for the Bitcoin price. Looking at the metric—which is at zero—and the three stress signals, the BTC market does not show any signs of capitulation, with the hash rate hitting new all-time highs in September. Furthermore, while the Bitcoin price has not particularly impressed so far in the past few months, it has mostly been in a consolidation range rather than in a downward trend. Alphractal founder Joao Wedson noted in a separate post that it will likely take a few more months before the largest cryptocurrency market faces capitulation. Ultimately, this means that the Bitcoin price still has a chance of witnessing another leg up in the current bull cycle. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $115,400, reflecting an over 2% decline in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Will Still Climb Above $5,000 As Long As It Holds This Level Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, has experienced a notable decline, erasing the gains it achieved following the recent decision by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates.  After soaring to nearly $118,000—just 5% shy of its all-time high—the market has faced renewed uncertainty. Despite this setback, experts emphasize that the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains optimistic, especially as September 21 approaches, a date identified as pivotal for Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Will September 21 Mark The Start Of A New Bull Run? Market analyst Timothy Peterson highlights that historically, Bitcoin has finished the year higher 70% of the time after September 21, with a median increase exceeding 50%. He has dubbed this date “Bitcoin Bottom Day,” suggesting that the odds of a price increase are significantly favorable.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Forecast: Expert Predicts 70% Chance Of New Highs Within Two Weeks Peterson notes that two of the three downturns in Bitcoin’s history occurred during established bear markets in 2018 and 2022, conditions that do not reflect the current market situation. This leads him to believe that the chances of a price rise are closer to 90% this year. Furthermore, Bitcoin’s track record suggests it has a nearly perfect chance of holding its gains six months post-September 21. Peterson estimates there is at least a 70% probability that Bitcoin will not drop below the $100,000 mark again. Analysts Warn Of ‘Sell the News’ Bitcoin Phase  Ryan Lee, chief analyst at cryptocurrency exchange Bitget, also points to the recent 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed as a factor that initially boosted Bitcoin’s price, briefly pushing it above $117,000. This cut, the first in nine months, reflects increased liquidity in the market.  However, Lee cautions that the median projection of only 50 basis points in total cuts for the year could temper some of the optimism, introducing potential volatility as traders adjust their strategies.  Historically, Bitcoin has experienced a dip of 5% to 8% following rate cuts before resuming its upward trend, suggesting a possible “sell the news” phase in the coming days. Related Reading: Warren Calls Out US DOJ Over Binance Settlement And Alleged Trump Ties In New Letter Despite these fluctuations, Lee remains bullish about the macroeconomic environment, asserting that lower yields on money-market funds (MMFs) are likely to direct capital toward alternative investments, such as cryptocurrencies.  He emphasizes Bitcoin’s role as a hedge in this risk-on climate, especially with approximately $7.2 trillion currently held in cash-like instruments. Looking ahead, Lee predicts that the cryptocurrency may consolidate in the near term before targeting prices between $123,000 and $150,000, should additional rate cuts materialize.  Analysts at Bitfinex also share a positive outlook, projecting that with three anticipated rate cuts by the end of the year and steady inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Bitcoin could reach between $125,000 and $135,000 by year-end.  However, they also caution that if inflation or economic growth data hinder the Fed’s ability to proceed with further cuts, Bitcoin might stabilize within a range of $110,000 to $115,000 as institutional participation and ETF assets under management provide a solid floor. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com