On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has revealed the five key Bitcoin on-chain alerts that could be to keep an eye on in the coming week. Bitcoin Is Observing Developments On These Metrics In a new thread on X, CryptoQuant has discussed about some Bitcoin on-chain alerts that could be to watch amid the consolidation phase in the cryptocurrency’s price. Related Reading: Cardano Whale Makes $54 Million Coinbase Outflow: Sign Of Dip Buying? The first indicator shared by the analytics firm is the 60-day change in the market cap of USDT, the number one stablecoin. As is visible in the above chart, the 60-day change in the USDT market cap has continued to sit at a notable positive level recently, implying the stablecoin has been witnessing growth. Stablecoins are one of the main inlets of capital into the cryptocurrency sector, so growth in them can generally be a positive sign. Currently, the 60-day change in the USDT market cap has a value of $10 billion. “This is a clear sign of fresh liquidity entering the market,” notes CryptoQuant. Another stablecoins-related indicator that can be relevant for Bitcoin is the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR), which measures the ratio between the market cap of BTC and combined that of all stables. A low value in the indicator can prove to be a bullish sign, as it implies investor purchasing power in the form of stablecoins is high compared to the Bitcoin market cap. From the below chart, it’s apparent that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of the BTC SSR stands at a value of 21 right now, which is considered to be inside the “buy” territory. Another bullish sign that’s developing for Bitcoin is in the Accumulator Address Demand, an indicator that measures the demand that’s coming from addresses that have zero history of selling the cryptocurrency. These perennial HODLers now own 298,000 BTC, which is a new record. A metric that’s still inside the bearish zone, however, is the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP). This metric keeps track of the BTC flows happening between spot and derivatives exchanges. The indicator has been following a downtrend during the past few months, which is considered to be a bear market pattern. “Watch closely: a shift upward often marks the start of bullish momentum,” says the analytics firm. The final metric shared by CryptoQuant is the Realized Price of the short-term holders (STHs), which measures the average cost basis of the Bitcoin investors who got in during the last 155 days. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Returns Back To Neutral As BTC Breaks $114,000 During BTC’s recent plunge, the STHs briefly dipped into losses, but the asset has since recovered above their Realized Price of $109,775. Bullish trends have historically continued when the coin has traded above this level. BTC Price Bitcoin has climbed back to $114,200 following its recovery surge in the last couple of days. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Tether, the issuer behind the leading stablecoin, USDT, has made headlines by acquiring $1 billion worth of Bitcoin—approximately 8,800 BTC—during the third quarter of this year. While many investors have reacted positively to this significant investment, caution has emerged from industry experts like Jacob King, CEO of SwanDesk, who warns that this move may contribute to what he believes could be the “largest bubble in history.” Bitcoin’s True Value Could Be Below $1,000 In a recent post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), King raised serious concerns about the Bitcoin market, claiming that 80-90% of the total buy volume is artificially inflated. He argues that Tether essentially creates money “out of thin air,” injecting it into Bitcoin and thereby exacerbating the speculative environment. Despite the growing trend of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and institutional accumulation of Bitcoin as a treasury reserve, the cryptocurrency’s real value might be “far below $1,000.” Related Reading: Will October Crown Bitcoin Or Break It? Key Levels In Play This narrative has been ongoing for years, provoking varied responses within the community. One investor countered King’s assertion by asking why major institutional players, including sovereign ETFs and Fortune 500 companies, continue to invest in Bitcoin if such a large portion of the trading volume is deemed fake. His argument suggests that either these institutions are misinformed or that the real bubble lies within traditional fiat currencies rather than cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. King refuted this notion, alleging that the idea of significant institutional investment in Bitcoin is largely “a myth.” He contended that most inflows into ETFs are driven by retail investors, not large institutions. Skepticism Vs. Optimism Further amplifying his skepticism, King criticized Strategy (previously MicroStrategy), the largest publicly traded company holding over 600,000 BTC, describing it as a “leveraged Bitcoin casino.” He alleged that the company’s co-founder, Michael Saylor, has a history of inflating numbers during the dot-com bubble, suggesting that the current situation is a repetition of “past mistakes.” Related Reading: Analyst Forecasts Dogecoin Price To See Face-Melting Rally: The Bullish Pattern That Suggests New Highs In contrast, other experts like Quinten Francois view Tether’s recent Bitcoin purchase through a more optimistic lens. Francois highlights the US government’s push for stablecoin adoption via the GENIUS Act, which mandates that stablecoin issuers be licensed, transparent, and fully backed by US Treasuries. He argues that this regulatory framework could channel trillions in offshore Eurodollars into US bonds through stablecoins, effectively continuing quantitative easing but through these private entities rather than the Federal Reserve (Fed). At the time of writing, BTC is trading within the lower channel of its consolidation range at $113,200, with no clear indication of where prices will move next. According to CoinGecko data, the leading cryptocurrency is currently 8% below its all-time high. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to navigate a phase of consolidation, hovering just above $113,000, leaving investors uncertain about the BTC’s next move. This uncertainty has led one analyst, known for accurately predicting BTC’s trajectory during this cycle, to suggest that a new bear market may be closer than many investors anticipate. Bear Market Warning In a recent post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), the analyst, who goes by the name Doctor Profit, expressed ongoing confidence in his bearish outlook. Since adopting a negative stance in August, he has maintained that Bitcoin is likely to reach the $90,000 to $94,000 range. While he initially expected this target to be hit this month, he noted that the price has spent an average of 77% of the time below his short position entry point of $115,500. This has reinforced his belief in the validity of his analysis. Related Reading: Solana Gaining Ground On Ethereum: These Key Metrics Show Colossal Growth Doctor Profit emphasized that the critical test for BTC involves the $90,000 to $94,000 range. He predicts that not only will this level be tested, but there is a strong possibility that Bitcoin could break below it, effectively signaling the end of the current bull market. While the probability of a bear market is alarmingly high, Doctor Profit insists that confirmation hinges on how Bitcoin reacts within this key price band. He clarified that reaching this target does not need to happen immediately, nor does a temporary bounce back to $116,000 or $117,000 invalidate his bearish thesis. The analyst views any upward price movements, such as the mid-September surge to $117,800, as mere opportunities to enter short positions at more favorable levels, instead of being signals of a new bullish catalyst. 4 Key Indicators For The Bitcoin Price Analytics platform CryptoQuant has identified four critical indicators to watch based on on-chain data. Notably, Tether’s USDT market cap has seen a substantial increase of $10 billion over the past 60 days, signaling fresh liquidity entering the market, which is typically a positive sign during bullish phases. Moreover, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) RSI currently sits at 21, which indicates a “buy” signal. This metric assesses the buying power of stablecoins in relation to Bitcoin’s market cap. Related Reading: Ethereum Founder Dumps Billions In These Meme Coins, Is This A Repeat Of Shiba Inu In 2021? Additionally, the number of accumulator addresses, which are wallets that have made multiple purchases of the leading cryptocurrency without selling, has reached an all-time high of 298,000 BTC. Conversely, the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP), which tracks Bitcoin flows between spot and derivatives exchanges, is currently trending downward—an indicator commonly associated with bearish market conditions. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) showed resilience over the last weekend as it defended the crucial $108,000 support level amid heightened whale selling on leading crypto exchanges around the world, including Binance. Bitcoin Survives September Whale Selling Pressure According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, September was marked by clear fluctuations between Bitcoin’s attempts to rally and exposure to selling pressure by whales and long-term holders. Binance trading volume data confirms this. Related Reading: Bitcoin Faces Bearish Pressure As Exchange Inflows Stay Elevated – Will BTC Lose $112,000 Support? Arab Chain highlighted Binance’s Exchange Inflow Coins Days Destroyed (CDD) indicator, which showed significant volatility throughout September. The indicator recorded multiple peaks at various points during the month, especially during mid-September. For the uninitiated, the Exchange CDD indicator tracks the movement of older, long-held Bitcoin when it flows into exchanges, weighting transactions by the age of the coins being spent. Spikes in this indicator signal that long-term holders or whales are moving coins with the intent to sell, which can create selling pressure. It is worth noting that despite the high peaks hit in September, the Exchange CDD indicator did not reach the extreme levels that it did in the previous months. However, the repeated spikes seen in September indicate inflows from older wallets into Binance. The CryptoQuant analyst stated that the multiple spikes in the Exchange CDD indicator reflect a state of caution among long-term investors. Some of these investors tried to test the market by moving their BTC to the exchange, without turning it into a mass sell-off event. Another point worth emphasizing is that the Exchange CDD spikes often coincided with price pullbacks in BTC, reinforcing the hypothesis that these flows likely represent short-term selling pressure. The analyst added: However, these pressures did not lead to a breakdown of key support levels around $108K, indicating the presence of corresponding buying liquidity that absorbed these moves. In conclusion, although some long-term investors showed willingness to take some profits, the absence of large waves of sell-offs shows that they have not fully lost confidence in the market yet. Similarly, Bitcoin’s price remaining above $108,000 despite repeated selling pressure shows that the market still possesses the capacity to absorb BTC inflows, confirming the robust underlying demand for the top digital asset. What Does October Hold For BTC? In a separate CryptoQuant post, analyst crypto sunmoon remarked that past data suggests that a surge in taker buy orders has often preceded major Bitcoin bull runs. However, currently, there are no signs of any increase in taker buy orders. Related Reading: Bitcoin Funding Dynamics Shift As Binance Premium Signals Aggressive Longs The analyst added that even if BTC witnesses some price increase, it is unlikely to record the same magnitude of gains as before. That said, improving Bitcoin network fundamentals offers some hope to the bulls. For instance, Bitcoin network transactions are once again approaching the important 600,000 transactions threshold, which could spark bullish momentum for the digital asset. At press time, BTC trades at $113,200, down 0.6% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com
Bitcoin enters the final day of the quarter in a tight coil of technicals and macro catalysts, with traders fixated on a handful of levels that will likely set the tone for October. Ostium Research’s week-ahead outlook frames the setup as a fading “window of weakness” into a potential Q4 tailwind, but only if the market navigates an event-heavy calendar without losing critical supports. As author Nik Patel puts it, “weekly momentum is still supportive of higher prices and I believe we are now emerging from the window of weakness I had marked out from Friday 20th Sept.” Key Bitcoin Levels Signal Explosive October Spot price action remains defined by last week’s rejection at the August open near $112,000 and a swift slide into the low-$108,000s before a rebound into Sunday’s close. On the weekly timeframe, momentum still tilts higher, but Patel warns that quarter-end, the October turn, and a dense run of data can stretch volatility. His base case is unambiguous: “I think any dip you get this week is one you want to look at as an opportunity for longs for the remainder of Q4,” he writes, adding that concerns about a cycle top in October are misplaced given “tailwinds into mid-Dec.” The mid-cycle risk marker sits around $99,000, with a longer-term invalidation tied to the 360-day moving average near $97,900. “Unless we lose $99k on a weekly close, nothing here looks mid-term bearish to me,” Patel states. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Go To Zero, Hedge Fund CEO Warns On the daily chart, the market carved a higher low above roughly $107,000 after the $112,000 rejection, keeping the short-term structure constructive. Patel’s upside trigger is precise: “If we do now push higher off this low through the rest of this week to close back above the August open and trendline resistance up near $115.7k, I think it is very unlikely you see $107k–$108k retested in October.” Conversely, he stresses the downside waypoint in a volatility burst: “I think the lowest we see this week is the 200dMA at $104.6k on a major flush of the lows.” The tactical map he sketches gives bulls and bears something to do, sometimes within the same session. On the long side, he favors fading a stop-hunt under last week’s low or into the September open, “with invalidation on a close below the 360-day moving average, currently at $97.9k, below which we have not closed since March 2023.” If the market squeezes first, he outlines a switch-hitter approach: a sharper rally into the quarterly close that “takes out the $114k high into Oct 1st,” followed by a fade on bearish divergence aiming “for at least $110k, if not $108.5k into the weekend,” where he’s prepared to flip long again. Related Reading: Bitcoin Retail Demand Retreats: 30D Change Falls To Lowest Level Since July Macro complicates an otherwise orderly technical picture. Patel expects the dollar to overextend before rolling over, a sequence that would support risk later in Q4: last week’s post-FOMC dollar bid is “short-lived,” with DXY “99 as the highest I am expecting,” and a larger move toward 93 in Q4 if momentum breaks down beneath the September open. On equities, he anticipates “a little choppier” October than crypto but still frames dips as opportunities into year-end. Positioning and derivatives context backstop the directional view. Patel highlights snapshots across Velo and CoinGlass, three-month annualized basis, and Bitcoin versus altcoin open interest, then overlays expected one-week and one-month liquidation clusters to illustrate where forced flow could accelerate either path. The through-line remains that this week’s volatility is likely the prelude, not the postscript, to Q4. “The opportunity for those lows to be cleaned up should be over the next 5–7 days,” he notes. “If we run last week’s low and then reclaim on the lower timeframes, that could be the October low forming early.” In sum, Bitcoin’s near-term riddle is less about trend decay than the choreography of a shakeout. Above ~$112,000, buyers can press quickly toward the ~$115,700 pivot; beyond that, the all-time-highs narrative returns to center stage. Sweep the lows first and hold the $104,600–$107,000 shelf, and the market may be laying its October floor. Only a weekly close below $99,000 would meaningfully dent the Q4 bull case Patel maps out for readers this week. “You should not get bear-holed,” he writes. “As such, any dip between now and the weekend is where I am expecting the formation of an October low. At press time, BTC traded at $113,248. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin has shown signs of resilience after setting a fresh low near $108,000, staging a recovery that lifted the price back above the $113,000 level. Bulls now try to reclaim the $115,000 level, but momentum weakens as sellers push back. The recovery eased pressure in the short term, yet uncertainty builds while the market tracks major macro risks. Related Reading: Bitcoin Retail Demand Retreats: 30D Change Falls To Lowest Level Since July The biggest concern comes from Washington, where the threat of a US government shutdown looms large. Traders expect volatility if policymakers fail to strike a deal, and risk assets like Bitcoin often react sharply to such headlines. As the deadline approaches, investors grow cautious and price action reflects that tension. Amid this backdrop, top analyst Maartunn flagged a notable Bitcoin Alert on Bybit. The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio surged to unusually high levels, signaling that traders opened aggressive long positions. Such spikes often reveal strong bullish conviction, but they can also create instability if those positions unwind. Bybit Data Shows Surge in Long Positions Analyst Maartunn highlighted a striking development in Bitcoin’s market structure: the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio on Bybit has surged to 24.26, marking the highest level since September. This unusual spike signals that traders have opened an aggressive wave of long positions, a move often interpreted as a strong bullish signal. According to Maartunn, this type of imbalance reflects a market where buy orders significantly outweigh sell orders, pointing to a sudden shift in sentiment. When the ratio reaches such extremes, it suggests that a large amount of fresh capital is entering through the long side of the order book. This indicates confidence among traders that Bitcoin’s rebound above $113,000 may have further room to expand if momentum holds. However, the implications are not one-sided. A surge in long positioning can add fuel to rallies, but it can also increase vulnerability if price action turns against overleveraged traders. In such cases, the market risks a cascade of liquidations, which can accelerate downward moves just as quickly as they amplify upward momentum. The coming days will be critical as Bitcoin tests the $115,000 resistance zone. A decisive breakout could validate the bullish positioning and pave the way toward $117,500. On the other hand, failure to push higher may trigger profit-taking or liquidations, pulling the price back toward $110,000. Related Reading: Ethereum Outflows Hit Spot Exchanges Again: Bullish Signal Or Neutral Flows? Bitcoin Holds Key Support But Faces Strong Barrier Bitcoin trades near $113,100 after bouncing from lows around $109,200, showing resilience in the face of recent selling pressure. On the 3-day chart, the price sits between critical levels: support from the 50-period moving average (blue) and resistance at the $117,500 zone, highlighted in yellow. This range has defined Bitcoin’s behavior for several weeks, and the market continues to consolidate within it. The broader structure reveals a series of lower highs since the July peak near $125,000, suggesting waning momentum in the medium term. However, the long-term trend remains intact, with the 100-period (green) and 200-period (red) moving averages trending upward and providing a strong base around $100,000 and $80,000 respectively. Related Reading: Ethereum OI Suffers Its Biggest Cleanup Since Early 2024 – Details A decisive break above $117,500 would invalidate the current lower-high structure and open the door for a retest of $120,000 and beyond. Conversely, failure to hold above $110,000 could drag Bitcoin lower, exposing the $105,000 region and testing investor confidence. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
As he reflects on the choices he made in the past and how they have shaped his understanding of Bitcoin today, an early Bitcoin investor, Jeff Ross, is opening up about his journey in the crypto market and sharing a lesson he says still stays with him. After years of watching Bitcoin grow and evolve, he says one decision still stands out as his biggest mistake. Jeff Ross Admits His Biggest Bitcoin Mistake Jeff Ross says his biggest mistake was selling all his Bitcoin years ago. Instead of holding Bitcoin, he decided to move it into a substantial and diversified basket of altcoins. He believed coins like Litecoin would rise and even called it the “silver to Bitcoin’s gold.” Related Reading: XRP Price May Not See An Explosive Rally In October As Expected, Here’s Why At that time, Ross thought spreading his bets was the wise choice. Looking back now, that choice clearly proves to be the wrong move. He explains that giving up his Bitcoin for other coins has remained his biggest regret after years in the market. The memory of this mistake remains alive, and today Ross speaks openly about it so that others do not fall into the same trap. Ross says it was not until 2020 that he fully understood what Bitcoin meant. Before then, he had seen the cryptocurrency only as a means to trade and make quick gains. Lessons Ross Shares With Bitcoiners Today Now, Jeff Ross uses his experience to send a message to other Bitcoiners. At first glance, fiat looks safe because it is widely accepted and backed by governments. However, Ross warns that the same money is quietly losing value every year due to inflation. What feels stable on the surface is, in reality, the “ultimate wealth-extracting unit,” a system that slowly drains people’s savings without them even noticing. Related Reading: Pundit Says Bitcoin Is Still In A Bull Market Despite Price Crash; Here’s Why According to Ross, Bitcoin fights this by protecting purchasing power and moving it away from fiat money. Moving value into this network, in his view, is the real strength of Bitcoin and the reason it stands apart from the countless digital tokens that come and go. Unlike fiat money, which loses purchasing power over time, Bitcoin removes value from government-backed currency and locks it into a transparent system where it remains safe and immutable. For Ross, Bitcoin could represent freedom, fairness, and the separation of money from state control. His personal story adds weight to these ideas and serves as a clear warning for other investors. By sharing how easily he once got caught up in the excitement of altcoins, Ross illustrates the temptation of short-term gains, as well as the often costly consequences that follow over time. The lesson he draws is that holding Bitcoin could be far more rewarding than chasing quick wins in today’s volatile markets. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin is once again trading at a critical juncture after a sharp Monday rally pushed the price above the $114,000 level. The surge comes as bulls attempt to counteract days of persistent selling pressure, with momentum beginning to tilt back in their favor. This move marks a potential turning point in the market, signaling that investors are testing whether Bitcoin can hold above this key threshold and establish it as a new base for higher gains. Related Reading: Bitcoin Retail Demand Retreats: 30D Change Falls To Lowest Level Since July Supporting this view, fresh on-chain data from CryptoQuant highlights a notable development in short-term holder behavior. The Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) has reset to 1, a crucial equilibrium level. At this point, the average sale by short-term holders is occurring at their cost basis, suggesting neither widespread profit-taking nor capitulation. Instead, the market is balanced, with buyers and sellers meeting in a zone of neutrality. This equilibrium often precedes decisive market moves. A sustained push higher could validate the bulls’ efforts to regain control, while failure to hold above $114,000 risks opening the door to renewed downward pressure. Traders and analysts alike are watching closely, as Bitcoin’s next move could define the tone for the weeks ahead. SOPR Signals Market Equilibrium Top analyst Axel Adler highlighted the importance of the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) in assessing Bitcoin’s current market state. According to Adler, when this metric hovers around 1, momentum tends to slow because of the delicate balance between buyers and sellers. Any push above the 1 threshold quickly shifts yesterday’s breakeven holders into profitable territory. As a result, many short-term investors seize the opportunity to sell, which injects additional selling pressure into the market and dampens the strength of upward moves. Adler explained that this dynamic often creates a self-limiting environment for rallies. As Bitcoin rises, more short-term holders lock in gains, fueling waves of profit-taking that prevent the price from sustaining higher levels. This cyclical pattern highlights why the 1.0 mark on SOPR is often referred to as an “equilibrium” zone: it represents the point where the market resets, and short-term participants face little incentive to either capitulate or aggressively accumulate. For the broader trend to truly accelerate, Adler emphasized the need for a decisive breakout above this equilibrium. Specifically, he noted that a consistent rise in SOPR above 1.002 for several consecutive days would signal a shift in sentiment. Such a development would indicate that sellers are no longer overwhelming the market with profit-taking, allowing buying momentum to build and sustain higher price levels. Until then, Bitcoin remains at risk of choppy, range-bound action, with rallies vulnerable to short-term selling pressure. This perspective underscores the importance of closely tracking SOPR in the coming sessions. While the recent move above $114,000 has revived bullish hopes, the data suggests that without a clear breakout in this critical metric, Bitcoin may struggle to generate lasting momentum. Related Reading: Ethereum Outflows Hit Spot Exchanges Again: Bullish Signal Or Neutral Flows? Bitcoin Tests Resistance as Bulls Eye $117,500 Bitcoin is currently trading around $113,400 after briefly climbing above $114,800 earlier in the session. The chart shows that the $117,500 level, marked in yellow, remains a critical resistance zone that has capped multiple rallies since mid-August. Bulls will need a decisive close above this area to confirm renewed upside momentum. The 50-day moving average (blue) is now acting as near-term resistance, while the 100-day moving average (green) is serving as support. The price recently bounced from this zone, suggesting buyers are attempting to re-establish control. However, the wider structure still reflects consolidation, with BTC trapped between the $110,000 support region and the $117,500 ceiling. Related Reading: Ethereum OI Suffers Its Biggest Cleanup Since Early 2024 – Details The 200-day moving average (red), currently trending around $102,500, remains far below spot price and continues to provide a strong base for the longer-term trend. Until BTC clears the $117,500 barrier, rallies risk fading into selling pressure, keeping price action choppy. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
As the Bitcoin price has staged a rebound coming out of the weekend, the momentum has begun to skew bullish again, and expectations remain that the price will wax higher from here. Some predictions have placed the digital asset’s price lower. However, there are some who expect this to be the start of the next upward wave for Bitcoin. One of those is crypto analyst Arman Shabann, who shared an analysis of the Bitcoin price that seems to be playing out quite well. Why The Bitcoin Price Is Headed For Higher Levels In the analysis, Arman explained the current Bitcoin price trajectory as being bullish, especially with the formation of a clear ascending channel. The digital asset had been moving within this ascending channel, and this is seen in the recent upward push that the Bitcoin price went on. Related Reading: XRP Price Is About To Close A 3M Candle Above This Major Region, Here’s What It Means For Price So far, the cryptocurrency looks to be moving according to plan, after bouncing off support between $108,000 and $109,000. After this bounce, the analyst believes that the Dogecoin price has now entered what is known as a natural correction phase. At this level, the Bitcoin price is still trending along the midline, and this is where the next move could be determined. Now, there is still the possibility that the price continues to trend down and retests the support area just above the $105,000 region, as shown in the chart. However, in this case, the Bitcoin price would be preparing for another bounce if this level holds. Additionally, the analyst points out that this would be an ideal entry point if the price were to actually reach this level, given that it’s expected to actually rebound from this point. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Skirts Potential Demand Zone, What Happens If It Hits Right? For the bullish scenario, the Bitcoin price does need to hold the upper boundary of the channel to continue its uptrend. Once bulls take control, then the price is likely to continue upward, with the analyst predicting an over 30% move. Such a move would put the Bitcoin price as high as $156,000 before the rally is over. On the other hand, the bears still have the opportunity to actually reclaim control of the digital asset from here. This lies in breaking below the support level and shifting the momentum back into the negative territory. If the support at $105,000 does break, then the next possible target is the dynamic support just above the $100,000 area. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
Data shows the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has retreated into the neutral territory as the BTC price has made recovery back above $114,000. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Is Exactly In The Balance Right Now The “Fear & Greed Index” refers to an indicator created by Alternative that measures the average sentiment present among traders in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency markets. Related Reading: XRP Bounce Incoming? Analyst Targets $3–$3.15 After Support Holds The index uses the data of the following five factors to determine the investor mentality: volatility, trading volume, market cap dominance, social media sentiment, and Google Trends. The metric represents the sentiment as a score lying between zero and hundred, where all values above 53 correspond to a sentiment of greed and those below 47 to one of fear. Its value being between these two thresholds implies a net neutral mentality. Besides these three regions, there are also two “extreme” zones called the extreme fear (below 25) and extreme greed (above 75). Historically, these two regions have held significance for Bitcoin and other digital assets, as tops and bottoms have occurred while the investors have held these sentiments. The relationship has been an inverse one, however, meaning extreme fear has been where bottoms have taken place, while extreme greed has facilitated top formations. Now, here is how the sentiment in the cryptocurrency sector is like at the moment, according to the Fear & Greed Index: As displayed above, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has a value of 50 right now, which suggests the average trader sentiment is exactly in the balance. This is a change from how it was in the last few days, when the investors were fearful. From the chart, it’s visible that the indicator fell to a low of 28 just a few days ago, implying investor sentiment was deep in the fear zone, just shy from turning into extreme fear. The fearful mentality was a result of the crash in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Related Reading: Crypto Suffers Nearly $1 Billion In Liquidations As Bitcoin Extends Decline Interestingly, since this peak in fear, BTC has regained footing and made some recovery. This could be an indication that the contrary effect of crowd sentiment may have once again come into play, despite the index not quite reaching extreme fear. With the market rebound, sentiment has quickly improved. But with it still being at neutral levels, the crowd is uncertain about where the asset would head next. It now remains to be seen how the investors will respond if the price recovery continues in the coming days. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $114,300, up more than 3% over the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Alternative.me, chart from TradingView.com
As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade in the low $110,000 range, a key on-chain indicator has flipped bullish, show signs of an upcoming price rally that could propel the top digital asset to new all-time highs (ATH) in the near term. Bitcoin’s 600,000 Transactions Threshold Takes Center Stage According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Ibrahim Cosar, an important correlation between BTC price and the total number of transactions over time stands out. Related Reading: Bitcoin Cycle Confluence Hints No Bottom Before October – What This Means The analyst shared the following chart to highlight the relationship between Bitcoin’s price and the total number of transactions. Notably, whenever the total transaction count surges above the 600,000 level – or even approaches it – BTC’s price tends to initiate an upward move. The above chart shows three previous instances in 2025 when BTC’s total transaction count climbed beyond 600,000, with an ensuing price appreciation. In May, there was a sharp price increase shortly following Bitcoin’s transaction count jump. Similar combinations of transaction count increase and price action surge were witnessed in August and early September. The CryptoQuant analyst remarked that this pattern has become particularly evident since Q4 2024. Cosar added: I’ve been studying on-chain data for a long time, but it’s rare to see such a clear pattern. The 600K transaction threshold seems to act almost like a signal that triggers Bitcoin’s “price engine.” This is my personal discovery, and the chart confirms it quite clearly. The analyst stated that rising transaction activity on the network is a leading indicator of Bitcoin’s underlying usage and demand. As the number of transactions on the Bitcoin network rises, the network becomes more vibrant and active. The growing usage of the Bitcoin network creates a natural buying pressure on Bitcoin’s price, adding fuel to the cryptocurrency’s bullish momentum. According to Cosar, the 600,000 transaction level is an “activity explosion” threshold that leads to a “price explosion.” That said, the analyst cautioned that no single factor can completely influence BTC’s price, as it is dependent on a mix of various factors, including macroeconomic backdrop, regulations, and trading activity. Still, the significance of an on-chain indicator with such a strong correlation with BTC’s price should not be ignored. If the total transaction count rises past the 600,000 level again, expect BTC to hit a new record high. Will BTC Fall Below $100,000? Bitcoin’s inability to decisively break through its current ATH of $124,128, recorded on August 14, has bulls worried about the digital asset’s fading momentum. The cryptocurrency is currently at its most oversold level since April 2025. Related Reading: Bitcoin Tipped To Peak In 2026 – Here’s Why From a technical standpoint, BTC has formed a bearish evening star pattern on the weekly chart, raising the possibilities of a price dip below $100,000. At press time, BTC trades at $114,117, up 3.8% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com
The Bitcoin price opened Monday with a slight recovery, reclaiming the $113,000 mark after a dip that brought the price down to $109,000—a level that has proven to be significant support for the top cryptocurrency. Despite this temporary bounce, one expert warns of further challenges ahead for bullish investors. Warns Of Further Bitcoin Price Drops In a recent post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), Doctor Profit expressed confidence in his market analysis, indicating that BTC is on track to reach his projected target range between $90,000 to $94,000, meaning an additional 20% drop for the Bitcoin price. He posited that the cryptocurrency is poised to move toward a new short-term downside target at approximately $106,000. According to his assessment, a minor bounce in this area could attract additional liquidity before the market potentially moves lower. Related Reading: Everyone’s Wrong About XRP: Here’s Why, Says Top Analyst Doctor Profit also paints a bleak picture of the broader economic landscape, highlighting troubling signs such as Japan’s 10-Year Bond Yield reaching its highest level since the Global Financial Crisis. He notes that the repo-to-reserves ratio is approaching 99%, a metric that hints at funding stress and margin strain, leading to forced selling. While he acknowledges that a surge in liquidity from central banks could provide a bullish pivot, he remains skeptical given the current market conditions. The analyst also referenced a range of indicators and charts he has shared since August, emphasizing that many key market charts, including the Dow Jones, are at significant resistance levels, some of which have formed over a century. He pointed out the record levels of alleged insider selling witnessed in recent weeks, alongside a surge in retail investor inflows, suggesting a disconnect between retail enthusiasm and the actions of larger players in the market. October Could Signal Recovery In contrast to Doctor Profit’s cautious stance, market expert Timothy Peterson offers a more optimistic outlook for the Bitcoin price trajectory in the months to come. Peterson believes that October could bring a positive shift for Bitcoin, drawing on historical trends and current market dynamics. Related Reading: Ethereum Outflows Hit Spot Exchanges Again: Bullish Signal Or Neutral Flows? As recently reported by NewsBTC, Peterson has outlined two potential bullish scenarios that he believes remain for the cryptocurrency: one forecasting a rise to as high as $240,000, while another more conservative estimate suggests a surge to $160,000. As the month of September draws to a close, Doctor Profit’s prediction that Bitcoin would trade below $100,000 could still play out. With only a 9% decline needed to breach the $100,000 threshold, the outlook remains uncertain. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Michael Saylor, the executive chairman of MicroStrategy, which recently rebranded to Strategy, has once again drawn attention to the company’s aggressive Bitcoin acquisition strategy by reviving and actively utilizing the public BTC Tracker. What Is The Bitcoin Tracker And Why Does It Matter Michael Saylor has once again released the Strategy Bitcoin tracker, a chart that the market has come to watch closely. According to the X post, the latest buy brings Strategy’s total Bitcoin treasury holdings to 639,835 BTC, which is approximately $70.01 billion. Related Reading: Michael Saylor Says Bitcoin Is Not Just An Asset; What Is It Then? CryptosRus has stated that the familiar orange dots continue their steady climb upward and to the right, a simple yet powerful indicator hinting that additional BTC buys may be on deck. Every time this chart comes out, the market leans in. Saylor’s conviction has transcended simple corporate policy to become a genuine market signal. An analyst known as BitBull has confirmed a crucial turning point for the Bitcoin market, highlighting that BTC Open Interest has fallen to its lowest level in a month, effectively wiping out all the leverage that had built up during September. BitBull views this deleveraging event as a positive and healthy development for the market. By purging excessive leverage, the market is now considered to be in a healthier state, which could set the stage for a reversal upward in BTC price. Why The Current Bitcoin Run Is Only The Beginning Market analyst Zynx has offered insights into the BTC market and future price targets, pointing out that the bull market is still in its early stages and has significant room to run. He stated that BTC needs to cross $151,000 just to equal its all-time high in Gold, which suggests a specific metric where BTC’s price, relative to the price of an ounce of gold, would match its previous peak ratio. Related Reading: Bitcoin Daily RSI At Most Oversold Level Since April — Time To Buy? Historically, every cycle since the inception, BTC has more than doubled its price in Gold at a minimum, usually much more than that. However, the $300,000 target is looking increasingly realistic. While it is impossible to give a time frame, if history repeats, crossing the $151,000 all-time high within the next six months is expected. Furthermore, what makes this cycle fascinating is the macro overlay. Some analysts, such as EneaDenkt and others, are using the US Business Cycle Institute for Supply Management (ISM) as a key indicator for predicting the timing when BTC will peak. Zynx concluded by acknowledging that this is definitely a very interesting time for the BTC rally, and this cycle will definitely be like no other. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Charles Edwards, founder and CEO of Capriole Investments, has issued his starkest warning yet on quantum computing, arguing that Bitcoin must migrate to post-quantum signatures on an accelerated timeline or face existential risk later this decade. “We need to upgrade Bitcoin to be Quantum proof next year. 2026. Otherwise we are fucked,” Edwards wrote on X early Monday, escalating a series of posts in which he contends “Q-Day is this decade.” Could Bitcoin Crash To $0? Edwards’ thesis hinges on the rapid compression of resource estimates required to run Shor’s algorithm against Bitcoin’s elliptic-curve digital signatures (ECDSA/Schnorr on secp256k1). Pushing back at skeptics who “handwave Quantum as being 20+ years away,” he argued that only “~2,000 logical qubits” may be sufficient to break ECC-256 within a practical time window, placing a credible attack in “2–6 years.” In a separate exchange he framed the stakes bluntly: “Do you want $1M Bitcoin in 5 years, or $0?” Related Reading: Bitcoin To $200K? Galaxy Digital CEO Reveals The ‘Biggest Bull Catalyst’ Edwards’ timeline closely tracks a fresh line of research and industry messaging from Pierre-Luc Dallaire-Démers, founder of Pauli Group, a startup focused on quantum-resistant money. In an August research preprint and public thread, Dallaire-Démers and co-authors introduced graded ECDLP challenges on Bitcoin’s curve and, after translating logical circuits to physical costs across several error-corrected architectures, placed “cryptanalytically relevant” ECC-256 attacks in a “roughly 2027–2033” window—emphasizing wide error bars and sensitivity to hardware assumptions. Pauli Group summarized the upshot plainly: “The first attack on 256-bit ECC will plausibly happen between 2027–2033.” The firm also provocatively stated via X: “PQC BTC will go to $1M+ by 2030. ECC BTC won’t.” The core risk vector is well-established: once a Bitcoin address reveals its public key on-chain—by spending from it or by using legacy formats that expose the key outright—a sufficiently powerful quantum computer running Shor’s algorithm could, in principle, derive the private key quickly enough to steal funds. Security researchers and industry teams note that coins in already-exposed keys are the first in line, while coins still sitting behind hashed (unrevealed) public keys are safer until they move. Several analyses estimate that a non-trivial share of outstanding BTC resides in exposed-key outputs, including early “pay-to-pubkey” era coins often associated with Satoshi. Edwards leaned into that tail risk, claiming “Satoshi’s coins will be market dumped” absent a migration. Related Reading: Bitcoin On The Brink: Analyst Warns This Key Level Must Hold Not everyone agrees on the clock speed. Some conservative estimates still point to millions of error-corrected qubits for practical, fast ECDSA breaks, and standards bodies have published transition guidance that implicitly assumes a longer runway. In late 2024, material circulated in the NIST/PQ ecosystem sketched migrations away from vulnerable algorithms by roughly 2035—a horizon many security engineers view as realistic for broad IT systems, even if niche breakthroughs arrive sooner. The spread between the “thousands” versus “millions” of logical qubits camps reflects fast-evolving algorithmic optimizations, differing error-correction models, and varied assumptions about gate speeds and code distances. Notably, Edwards is taking the message to TOKEN2049 this week, where he is slated to present “DOUBLE THREAT: Quantum & the Treasury Bubble” on Wednesday, October 1 at 10:45 a.m. local time—positioning quantum compromise and a growing “Bitcoin Treasury Bubble” as the two dominant downside risks for BTC over the next cycle. At press time, BTC traded at $112,150. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin has managed to reclaim the $110,000 level, but momentum remains fragile as the market shows early signs of exhaustion. After recent volatility, BTC’s inability to extend gains higher has fueled speculation that a deeper correction may be in play. Traders are closely watching whether Bitcoin can hold above this critical threshold or if selling pressure will drag it lower in the coming sessions. Related Reading: Ethereum OI Suffers Its Biggest Cleanup Since Early 2024 – Details Despite the cautious outlook, some analysts view the current consolidation as a healthy reset in a broader bullish cycle. They argue that periods of cooling price action often serve as foundations for more sustainable rallies, reducing leverage and strengthening long-term support levels. Adding to this cautious optimism, top analyst Maartunn shared fresh data showing that retail demand is backing off. According to his findings, the 30-day Retail Demand Change has dropped to -5%, marking its lowest level since July. This trend suggests smaller investors are stepping aside, leaving price direction increasingly in the hands of larger players and institutions. Retail Capitulation And Macro Risks The current retreat in retail demand could carry a bullish undertone for Bitcoin. Historically, retail investors often act as a contrarian signal—buying aggressively near cycle tops and capitulating near market bottoms. With the 30-day Retail Demand Change dropping, smaller investors appear to be stepping aside just as Bitcoin consolidates above the $110,000 level. This reduction in retail activity may be a sign that the market is flushing out weaker hands, setting the stage for stronger accumulation by institutions and high-conviction holders. At the same time, broader macroeconomic risks add complexity to the picture. The looming threat of a US government shutdown is stirring concerns across risk assets, as investors weigh potential impacts on liquidity, market confidence, and the trajectory of Federal Reserve policy. Historically, periods of political gridlock and fiscal uncertainty tend to increase volatility, with Bitcoin often caught in the crosscurrents. However, uncertainty does not always translate into downside. In some cases, Bitcoin has benefited from macro turbulence as investors seek alternative assets outside of traditional financial systems. If retail investors remain on the sidelines while larger players accumulate, this dynamic could create a launchpad for a new bullish phase once macro conditions stabilize. Related Reading: MrBeast Enters The Aster Game: $1M Buy Signals Growing Interest Bitcoin Price Dynamics: Struggling At $112K Bitcoin is currently trading around $112,141, showing signs of resilience after its recent dip below the $110,000 level. The chart reflects a short-term recovery, but BTC is still facing strong resistance from the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, both positioned slightly above the current price zone. These averages have acted as dynamic barriers in recent weeks, capping upward momentum and reinforcing the market’s corrective phase. The rejection from the $123,217 resistance level, marked earlier in September, highlights the ongoing difficulty for bulls to sustain rallies. Since then, the structure has shifted into a lower-high formation, signaling fading momentum. Despite the bounce, the failure to reclaim and hold above the $114,000–$115,000 zone could expose BTC to further downside risk, with the 200-day moving average near $105,000 serving as the next critical support. Related Reading: Ethereum Outflows Hit Spot Exchanges Again: Bullish Signal Or Neutral Flows? For now, Bitcoin’s short-term outlook remains cautious: bulls need a decisive break above $115,000 to regain momentum, while bears may target deeper retracements if the $110,000 floor gives way again. The coming sessions will be crucial in determining whether this rebound is sustainable or just another pause in the correction. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
The price of Bitcoin has had a mixed performance so far in 2025, falling to a low of around $74,000 in the first quarter of the year. The premier cryptocurrency has since set multiple all-time highs above the $120,000 mark over the past few months. However, while the Bitcoin price seems to have fallen into a consolidation phase in recent weeks, the general feeling in the market has always been that there remains an upside potential for the market leader. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz has come forward to echo these sentiments while identifying the “biggest catalyst” to kickstart a potential rally. ‘Exceptionally Dovish’ Fed Chair Could Guide BTC To $200,000: Novogratz In a recent interview with Kyle Chasse on YouTube, Novogratz shared that the next major move for the Bitcoin price could hinge on the potential replacement of US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell. According to the Galaxy Digital CEO, the BTC price could go on a significant rally if the next Fed chair is exceptionally dovish. Related Reading: The Mobility Advantage: Why Bitcoin’s Portability Makes It Superior To Traditional Gold Novogratz revealed that the appointment of a dovish Fed chair is the potential biggest bull catalyst for Bitcoin and the crypto market. The CEO affirmed that the conversation changes for the world’s largest cryptocurrency, which could reach as high as $200,000, if there is a leadership change. For context, a dove refers to a policymaker or advisor (typically in the Federal Reserve) who takes a looser monetary stance, including interest rate cuts, in a bid to grow the economy. The US Fed cutting interest rates is usually bullish for crypto and other risk assets, as it means that traditional investment instruments like bonds offer less lucrative returns. Hence, investors tend to flock to digital assets and the equities market. However, Novogratz noted the potential impact of aggressive rate cutting on the US dollar. While lower interest rates are usually positive for risk assets like Bitcoin, it has the opposite effect on the dollar market. The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 25 basis points (25bp) after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in September. This decision—first of its kind this year—is expected to be the first of a couple more rate cuts to come before the end of 2025. Bitcoin Price At A Glance While the Bitcoin price responded positively to the Fed’s decision to cut rates in September, the premier cryptocurrency has struggled to build on the macro-driven momentum. As of this writing, BTC is valued at around $109,570, reflecting a mere 0.1% decline in the past day. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run Is Over? These Signals Show Where The Market Is At Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
The cryptocurrency market is in a tense mood after Bitcoin lost important price levels this week, and investor sentiment has taken a beating. This caused the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index to plunge by 16 points in a single day, sinking to 28 yesterday, its lowest level since March. At the time of writing, the index has recovered slightly to 33, but it still in the Fear zone. This may unsettle many investors, but history shows that fearful conditions may be blessings in disguise for Bitcoin investors. Related Reading: XRP Eyeing Explosive Move In Next Few Months, Research Shows Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Drops To 28 This week has been tough for many cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin. Bitcoin, which started the week above $115,000, entered into an extended decline that saw it break below $110,000, which in turn led to liquidations of over $1 billion worth of positions across the industry. This move also saw Ethereum break below $4,000, alongside altcoins likes XRP, Solana extending to the downside. Taken together, these moves erased the cautious optimism of last week, when the index sat at a neutral level of 48. Instead, Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed Index fell to as low as 28, which is a dramatic 16 point plunge in a single day. This crash in the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index shows just how fast sentiment can reverse when important price thresholds fail to hold. However, while the fearful mood might appear to be a bearish hint, these conditions could be an opportunity for long-term traders. The Fear and Greed Index has historically been a contrarian indicator, with extreme fear levels typically appearing before significant rebounds. Earlier in March, when the index last reached similar depths, Bitcoin was trading at a relative low around $83,000. Today, even after breaking below 30 on the index again, Bitcoin is about $27,000 higher than it was in March. Bitcoin Fear And Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me Constructive Outlook For The Coming Weeks The broader takeaway from this sentiment shift is that the crypto market may be closer to its next recovery phase than many expect. The index’s slight rebound to 33 today from yesterday’s low of 28 shows that some traders are already positioning for a turnaround. For one, Bitcoin’s current prices could give savvy investors the chance to accumulate Bitcoin at discount prices. Bitcoin rarely sustains rallies in conditions of overwhelming greed. Instead, consolidations and corrections reset sentiment and make room for healthier growth. For instance, crypto analyst Michael Pizzino said in a post on X, that the most recent fear could be the turning point Bitcoin and crypto has been waiting for. Related Reading: Dogecoin Bullish Again? $10 Million Stock Buyback Sparks Fresh Price Hopes In this sense, the fearful environment may be setting the stage for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other altcoins to build bullish momentum once selling pressure eases. Now, the most important thing is for the Bitcoin price to reestablish itself above $110,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $109,220. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
After what seemed like a strong start to September, the Bitcoin price is pretty much back where it began the month. With the historically bullish “Uptober” now in sight, investors are hoping that the premier cryptocurrency will be able to find some relief and perhaps enjoy some upward momentum in the coming weeks. However, the latest on-chain revelation suggests that the Bitcoin price is at risk of further downward pressure over the next few weeks. According to a prominent analyst on social media platform X, the market leader has fallen below a crucial level, which could trigger a further 10% price drawdown. BTC To Enter ‘Correction Process’ In Next 2-3 Months? On-chain analyst Burak Kesmeci took to the X platform to share an update on the Bitcoin price in relation to the Short-Term Holder (STH)’s Realized Price. According to the crypto pundit, the BTC price has now broken beneath the STH Realized Price—around $111,500—for the fourth time this year. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run Is Over? These Signals Show Where The Market Is At For context, the Short-Term Holder Realized Price is a metric that estimates the average price at which Bitcoin short-term investors (holding for less than 115 days) purchased their coins. Because it represents the average cost basis of this relevant investor cohort, the STH Realized Price often acts as a dynamic support and resistance level. Kesmeci revealed that the Bitcoin price had previously fallen below the STH Realized Price three times so far during this bull run, which started in November 2022. According to the on-chain analyst, the market leader entered a consolidation phase when this happened the past three times. In the first incident of BTC slipping beneath STH Realized Price, the Bitcoin price witnessed an over 8% decline between August and October 2023. Meanwhile, the flagship cryptocurrency’s value declined by more than 13% between June 2024 and October 2024 in the second occurrence. Most recently, the market leader dipped almost 8% between February and April 2025 when the Bitcoin price fell below the STH Realized Price. Kesmeci highlighted that, on average, these consolidation phases lasted 77 days and each resulted in an almost 10% loss in BTC’s value. Kesmeci concluded that the Bitcoin price could enter a consolidation/correction phase if it does close the week and perhaps the month beneath the STH Realized Price around $111,500. And if history does repeat itself, investors could see the market lose as much as 10% over the next two to three months. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $109,538, reflecting no significant change in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Expert Prediction: Bitcoin Price Could Hit $200,000 By June 2026, Claiming 50% Probability Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
The price of Bitcoin has been under intense bearish pressure over the past week, falling below the $110,000 mark on Thursday, September 25. While the premier cryptocurrency has managed to stop bleeding in the past day, the BTC price has struggled to reclaim the psychological $110,000 level. Interestingly, the latest readings of a technical analysis indicator suggest that the Bitcoin price might have just reached a bottom and could be ready for a rebound. Has The Bitcoin Price Reached A Bottom? In a September 26 post on the X platform, a crypto analyst named after the renowned economist Frank Fetter revealed that the price of Bitcoin might have just entered a buy zone. This price projection is based on the relative strength index (RSI) indicator on the daily BTC price chart. Related Reading: Dogecoin Bullish Again? $10 Million Stock Buyback Sparks Fresh Price Hopes The relative strength index is a momentum indicator used in technical price analysis to assess the magnitude and speed at which an asset’s price changes. The RSI oscillator is usually used to analyze whether a crypto asset (Bitcoin, in this case) is being overbought or oversold, suggesting a possible price or trend reversal. When the relative strength index breaks above 70, it typically indicates an overbought market condition, with the asset’s price likely to face selling pressure. Meanwhile, an RSI value below 30 implies that the market is in an oversold condition, with price on the verge of a potential rebound. According to Fetter, the Bitcoin relative strength index on the daily chart has fallen to its lowest level since the April price bottom of $74,000. This price downturn, which was triggered by the tariff war between the United States and China, saw the RSI oscillator fall beneath the 30 threshold in March. Since bottoming out at the $74,000 mark and the RSI low in April, the Bitcoin price has since gone on to set multiple all-time highs. If history is anything to go by, there is a chance that the flagship cryptocurrency could find support at its current price and run up to a new high. As of this writing, BTC is valued at around $109,331, reflecting a mere 0.2% jump in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the premier cryptocurrency is down by more than 5% on the weekly timeframe. Crypto Market Enters ‘Fear’ Zone The crypto Fear & Greed Index is another signal suggesting a buy opportunity in the Bitcoin market at the moment. According to the latest on-chain data from Alphractal, this metric has dropped to 28, signaling strong fear amongst digital asset investors. Related Reading: The Mobility Advantage: Why Bitcoin’s Portability Makes It Superior To Traditional Gold Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index of the stock market is at a neutral level, meaning that pessimism has yet to hit the traditional markets. With the crypto Fear & Greed Index at its lowest level since April 2025, the divergence from the traditional markets suggests potential accumulation opportunities in the digital asset market. Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Market expert Tony Severino has raised some concerns with the current Bitcoin price action on the weekly chart. This comes as the flagship crypto trades below $110,000, with predictions that it could further drop below the psychological $100,000 level. Bitcoin Price Forms Bearish Pattern On Weekly Chart Severino revealed in an X post that the Bitcoin price is potentially forming an Evening Star pattern on the weekly chart, something he is wary of. He noted that this pattern is forming right at the Bollinger Band basis line, at around $111,600, during the tightest BB squeeze in BTC’s history. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run Is Over? These Signals Show Where The Market Is At The market expert had earlier revealed that the Bitcoin price’s weekly Bollinger Bands are officially the tightest in the entire history of BTCUSD price action. Essentially, BTC is currently trading within a tight range, indicating low volatility. Severino’s accompanying chart shows that the upper BB is at around $122,000, the basis BB is at $111,600, while the lower BB is at $101,000. Meanwhile, the Evening Star pattern suggests that the bears are taking control from the bulls, putting the Bitcoin price at risk of a further downtrend. With the Bollinger bands being this tight, Severino may be cautious of how this could lead to a BTC decline to the lower BB basis. Crypto analyst Bob Loukas confirmed that the bears are in control and indicated that BTC could still drop below $100,000. He noted that the Bitcoin price is looking to print its Weekly Cycle Low, although he opined that BTC is holding up well despite the current downtrend. The analyst declared that a rally to $118,000 will confirm the start of a new cycle. Until then, the bears will remain in control. His accompanying chart showed that the flagship crypto could risk dropping below $100,000 during this period when the bears are in control. However, in the long run, Loukas still expects the Bitcoin price to rally to as high as $140,000. BTC Needs To Reclaim $116,300 Crypto analyst Ali Martinez also warned that the Bitcoin price needs to reclaim $116,300 or risk dropping as low as $94,334 based on the Pricing Bands. He had earlier stated that $107,200 is the crucial support for Bitcoin. The analyst claimed that a drop below that support level would put $100,000 or even $93,000 in play. Related Reading: These Analysts Predicted The Bitcoin Price Crash And Their Forecasts Say It’s Not Over Meanwhile, crypto analyst Titan of Crypto noted that the Bitcoin price has broken below the trendline at $110,000. He remarked that confirmation is still needed and that the lagging span must follow to validate this bearish move. However, the analyst is one of those who doesn’t believe that BTC has topped, noting that the market is in a period of fear and that this has never marked the cycle top. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $109,600, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin’s market structure is showing signs of cycle alignment that could delay a true bottom until October. As technical signals converge, the focus shifts to whether this timing will mark a deeper continuation of the correction or the groundwork for a stronger rebound. Macro Picture Remains Bearish With $99,000 Target In a new insight shared on X, analyst TARA provided an update on Bitcoin’s price action, stating that “the fight continues” and that the internal “waves are such a mess right now.” The current situation reflects a highly complex market environment where the short-term and mid-term technical signals are contradictory: the immediate trend is categorized as bullish, while the medium-term outlook remains bearish. Related Reading: Bitcoin Loses $110,000 Support But Risk Signal Says Market Is Safe – Details The analyst noted that Bitcoin found support at a critical technical cluster defined by a 0.618 extension and a specific 0.854 support level, a confluence that indicates buyers stepped in decisively. TARA emphasizes the significance of this hold, stating that if Bitcoin had dropped any lower, it would have “invalidated any short-term bullish scenarios. Despite the short-term strength, Bitcoin has yet to test the resistance, which is now identified at $114,400. TARA points to this level as the immediate target if the price can successfully turn around and continue its current upward trajectory. However, TARA concludes with a strong reminder about the macro trend, which remains bearish, with the full target for this entire correction remaining at approximately $99,000. Time Cycles Point To Bearish TK Cross Formation Dr. Cat, in a recent update, explained that a renewal of the September 25th low at $108,652 after September 28th would be a critical signal for Bitcoin. Such a move would indicate a continuation of the bearish trend, suggesting that the market may not find a bottom before October 1st, with the possibility extending toward October 3rd (±2 days) based on the daily chart outlook. Related Reading: Countdown To ‘Bitcoin Bottom Day’: Why September 21 Could Change Everything If the low is revisited, it would likely cause the Kijun Sen to turn downward, setting up a valid bearish Tenkan-Kijun (TK) cross. Meanwhile, the Chikou Span (CS) is also positioned in a way that shows it is preparing for its own bearish cross, further reinforcing the possibility of continued downside pressure. Dr. Cat reminded followers of a prediction made roughly three weeks earlier, where the analyst stated that the market bottom should not be expected before October. That earlier analysis was grounded on the monthly chart. Now, the daily chart appears to be coming into alignment with the monthly outlook. If Bitcoin does in fact renew the September low within the stated timeframe, this would likely serve as the trigger confirming the bearish continuation. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
A recent report from Bloomberg has unveiled a striking decline in corporate investment in crypto treasuries, highlighting a significant shift in this new trend that has considerably taken the market by storm throughout the year. Purchases by publicly traded digital-asset treasuries have plummeted dramatically, from 64,000 Bitcoin (BTC) in July to just 12,600 in August, with September’s figures currently at around 15,500. This drop represents a major 76% decrease from the fervor of early summer. Crypto Treasury Firms Valuation Sinks The broader cryptocurrency market has faced additional challenges, with Bitcoin experiencing nearly a 6% decline over the past week, exacerbated by a broader selloff characterized by sudden liquidations. Shares in some treasuries that previously raised capital through PIPE (Private Investment in Public Equity) deals have seen valuations plummet, with some trading down as much as 97% below their initial issuance prices. Related Reading: Dogecoin (DOGE) On The Brink Of A Major Breakout: 800% Rally In Sight One of the reasons behind this shift is regulatory scrutiny, with reports indicating that US authorities are now investigating “unusual trading activity” within digital-asset treasury shares ahead of their acquisitions. Markus Thielen, head of 10x Research, alleges that there is limited transparency regarding the crypto acquisition prices of the underlying tokens and the actual share counts, particularly since many PIPE deals include warrants that complicate matters with their volatility and dilution effects. The valuations of some treasury firms, which once enjoyed high market premiums, have drastically declined, with their market value approaching the actual Bitcoin they hold. This shift is measured by the market-cap-to-NAV (net asset value) multiple, which now reflects a concerning trend: the disconnect between stock prices and the value of Bitcoin reserves is closing. Diminished Institutional Support As corporate buyers retreat, Bloomberg asserts that the crypto market is experiencing a “feedback loop” that diminishes institutional support. The report alleges that this absence of a stable capital source undermines demand, leading to a more precarious market environment. The current landscape has given rise to a “two-speed market.” On one hand, derivative markets exhibit significant stress, with demand for longer-dated futures collapsing and $275 million worth of Bitcoin longs liquidated in just 24 hours. Related Reading: Expert Prediction: Bitcoin Price Could Hit $200,000 By June 2026, Claiming 50% Probability Conversely, crypto-related products continue to attract investment, as evidenced by the iShares Bitcoin Trust exchange-traded fund (ETF), which garnered $2.5 billion in inflows in September, a substantial increase from $707 million the previous month. Jeff Dorman, chief investment officer at Arca, emphasized that the current weakness in the crypto market is likely a consequence of diminished activity from digital asset treasuries rather than a direct cause of selling pressure. The reduction of these major buyers, he contends, has created a more cautious market environment. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
The cryptocurrency derivatives market has been hit hard by the latest bearish continuation in Bitcoin and others as mass liquidations have hit exchanges. Crypto Liquidations Have Neared $1 Billion Over The Last 24 Hours According to data from CoinGlass, a massive amount of liquidations have occurred in the cryptocurrency derivatives market during the past day. A “liquidation” occurs when an open contract exceeds a certain loss threshold defined by the exchange and undergoes forceful closure. Related Reading: Chainlink (LINK) Triangle Setup Points To $100, Says Analyst Due to the volatility that Bitcoin and other assets have experienced over the last 24 hours, a huge amount of contracts have crossed this threshold. Below is a table that breaks down the relevant numbers related to these liquidations. As is visible, cryptocurrency liquidations have totaled at $967 million inside this window, which is a pretty significant amount. Since the price action in the past day has majorly been in the bearish direction, the positions most affected would be the bullish bets. And indeed, as the data shows, $849 million of the liquidations, representing almost 88% of the total, involved long investors. Ethereum has recently been dominating speculative activity in the market, and it seems the asset has topped the charts during this derivatives flush as well, with $309 million in liquidations. Bitcoin has come second with around $246 million. A mass liquidation event like this latest one isn’t a rare occurrence in the cryptocurrency sector, mainly due to two reasons: coins can be volatile on the regular and extreme amounts of leverage can be easily accessible. Such an event, where a cascade of liquidations occurs, is known as a squeeze. As longs were the party most seriously affected in the latest squeeze, the event would be termed as a long squeeze. This is the second long squeeze that the market has suffered this week, with the other one arriving during Bitcoin’s Monday plummet to $112,000. Here is a chart shared by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode that shows how the previous long squeeze compared against this latest one for Bitcoin: According to Glassnode, the two large long squeezes could actually help prevent more such events in the near future. “This flush of leverage reflects a broad deleveraging event, often resetting market positioning and easing the risk of further cascades,” explains the analytics firm. Related Reading: Dogecoin Down 18%, But Whale Withdraws 122 Million DOGE From Binance It now remains to be seen whether the liquidations will be enough to bring a calm to the market, or if there is more volatility ahead for Bitcoin and others. Bitcoin Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $109,200, down more than 6% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, CoinGlass.com, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin and Gold as stores of value often boil down to a single, critical distinction in the digital era of mobility. This portability transforms BTC from just a digital gold narrative into a living, breathing monetary network that gold can never match. According to mhar_leeck’s perspective on X, the true evolution of BTC lies in its capacity as a platform for innovation, to move, evolve, and even teach. Unlike gold, which stays locked away, this narrative confines the asset to a passive role. The Build on Bitcoin (BOB) layer 2 solution is presented as the crucial technology that enables this shift. Build On Bitcoin Powering The Narrative Furthermore, by creating a new, more expressive layer on top of BTC, BOB turns the theory of a programmable BTC into a practical reality. This combination is often referred to as a hybrid L2, which allows builders to transition from simply reading about decentralized finance (DeFi) to experimenting, testing, and creating in real-time. Related Reading: Bitcoin Poised To Rival Gold In Central Bank Vaults By 2030: Deutsche Bank The unlocking of BTC’s liquidity extends beyond its use in high-throughput applications. It is about unlocking a space for true innovation, where every project sparks, and momentum keeps building. Mhar_leeck noted that the most exciting next chapter for BTC is not about simply holding the asset, but about actively building on it. Crypto Sinan has also stated that he has been in BOB for a while now, and the ride has been nothing short of exciting. The promise of BTC actually working across DeFi with one click highlights the focus on user experience, and no wrapped tokens or shady bridges that introduce new trust assumptions. However, by bridging the liquidity of both BTC security and ETH-grade flexibility, BOB opens the door to a wide range of yield-generating opportunities. As a result of allowing native BTC moves to earn multichain yield without the risks of opaque wrapping solutions, and a growing community that feels like it is building the future in real-time. “If you still think BTC is only a static store of value, maybe BOB is the place where you will finally see the digital gold become productive gold.” Crypto Sinan mentioned. The Biggest Profit-Take In Bitcoin History Bitcoin continues to experience bearish action, impacting investors’ sentiment. Niels, the co-founder of Tedlabsio, has revealed that Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holders (LTHs) are cashing in a historic amount of coins than ever before. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is Not Done Yet Despite Price Crash To $112,000, Here’s Why In this cycle, BTC Long-Term Holders have realized a record amount of profit, totaling an enormous 3.4 million BTC, larger than the profit realized in any previous bull run. However, in past cycles, sell pressure has barely dented the price structure, which signifies that despite seasoned investors taking record profits, the underlying demand is absorbing it all. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a critical phase in its cycle, prompting analysts to debate whether the long-standing bull run is finally nearing its peak. With volatility tightening and historical cycle data indicating a potentially explosive breakout, market experts are closely watching the next few weeks for signals that reveal the market’s current position and future direction. Bitcoin Bull Run Cycle Nears Endgame Market analyst, ‘CRYPTOBIRD’ has warned that the Bitcoin bull run could end within 30 days. In a thread on X social media, he noted that this current cycle has now reached 1,038 days since the November 2022 bottom, which is equivalent to 97.5% of a standard cycle. Historically, the final 2.5% of Bitcoin’s bull runs have delivered the most dramatic price surges, often catching both retail and institutional investors off guard. Related Reading: These Analysts Predicted The Bitcoin Price Crash And Their Forecasts Say It’s Not Over Examining the cycle bottom-to-top chart, BTC’s current market structure aligns closely with that of past cycles, where it experienced its largest accelerations just before cycle completion. The black line representing the current 2022-2025 trajectory shows Bitcoin consolidating after strong gains, much like the 2016 and 2020 cycles before their peaks. From a technical standpoint, the expert notes that BTC is trading in an unusually tight 5% range between $110,500 and $116,000, signaling heavy compression. However, the cryptocurrency recently broke down again and is now sitting slightly above $109,600. CRYPTOBIRD highlights key levels: 200-week SMA at $53,111 acting as long-term macro support, the 50-week SMA near $99,000 as the bull market floor and the SPX correlation (-0.19). The analyst explained that short-term structures remain mixed, with High Time Frame (HTF) support at $111,296 still intact. However, compression has created conditions where any breakout could set the tone for the remainder of the year. Furthermore, the Current Trend Framework (CTF) is at $114,916, signaling bearish periods. Presently, price is gravitating toward the 200-day BPRO at $112,250, and if Bitcoin can hold above it, bulls could remain in control. Halving Math Signals Final BTC Breakdown Continuing his analysis, CRYPTOBIRD emphasized that Bitcoin is now 523 days post-halving, placing it firmly within the historical “peak window” of 518-580 days after each halving event. Every previous major cycle top has occurred in this exact range, suggesting Bitcoin is entering the statistical sweet spot for its final move. Related Reading: Strategist Publishes Bitcoin ‘Cheat Code’ As Factors That Led To Previous ATHs Return Adding to the setup is the market’s present volatility squeeze. Average True Range (ATR) has dropped to 2,250, its lowest reading of 2025, while 50-day volatility sits at 2,800. The analyst notes that such compressed volatility rarely lasts and typically precedes a violent breakout within two to four weeks. Institutions also appear to be positioning accordingly, with Bitcoin ETF flows showing distribution. Sentiment indicators add another layer, as the Fear and Greed index stands at 44, indicating rising fear rather than euphoria. Meanwhile, RSI is neutral at 46, suggesting that momentum has cooled but not collapsed. Despite September’s reputation as Bitcoin’s weakest month, CRYPTOBIRD notes that it gained 4.4% month-to-date, defying its historical 6.2% decline. This anomaly, combined with October, which is typically seen as a green month, could set the stage for a bullish Q4. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin has experienced a sharp price drop in recent days, but one well-followed crypto analyst remains undaunted. Popular chartist Egrag Crypto says Bitcoin is still in a bull market, even with the pullback. He believes what is happening now is only part of a larger repeating pattern that has played out since the end of 2022. According to him, this cycle is not over yet, and the market still has another strong upward move before an actual bear phase begins. Bitcoin Holds Strong Above Key Levels Egrag Crypto explains that Bitcoin follows a clear pattern that has been in place since December 2022. First, the price surges upward, then it retests support, bounces back, corrects slightly, and makes a new local high. Related Reading: XRP Holders Could Lose Millions Of Dollars In 10 Days, Here’s Why Right now, the most critical level to watch is $103,000. As long as Bitcoin does not fall below that level, Egrag says there is no real danger. Instead, he expects one more big pump to arrive before the cycle tops out. His personal target for this move is between $150,000 and $175,000. In his view, this would mark the last push of the current bull run before the market flips to its next bear phase. Egrag stresses that corrections along the way are normal and should not cause panic. He believes traders often get caught up in short-term drops without realizing that they are only part of a larger trend. Looking at the bigger picture, it is clear that the Bitcoin bull market still has room to run. Market Parallels With Gold Suggest Bull Run Is Intact Egrag Crypto also draws a strong comparison between Bitcoin and gold. He points out that many analysts once thought gold had peaked at a technical target of $3,500. Instead, the price continued to rise due to what he calls a short squeeze. This sudden surge, he says, was meant to trap retail buyers into a “suckers rally.” Related Reading: Expert Reveals Why XRP Won’t Mirror Bitcoin’s Path And Why A Decoupling Is Imminent He notes that gold demand is currently so high that even shop owners with decades of experience say they have never seen business like this. To Egrag, this kind of hype is usually a warning that the cycle is near its top. He expects gold to eventually fall by $600 to $1,000 once Russia and Ukraine restore peace, a move that he believes would once again confirm the cyclical nature of the market. For Bitcoin, the same lesson applies. Despite loud voices calling the bull run over, Egrag insists that the cycle is still alive. He views the current downturn as merely a pause before another significant surge. He plans to invest around $30,000 in the following macro cycle and later rotate into strong altcoins. In his view, staying patient and respecting cycles is the most effective approach. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Crypto analyst Kevin (Kev Capital TA) told viewers late on September 25 that Bitcoin’s pullback is tracking a familiar seasonal and structural script—and that the market’s next major impulse hinges on a clearly defined support range. “Hold $107k to $98K,” he said, calling the zone the fulcrum for the bull cycle’s next leg. “That’s it. It’s that simple.” Opening his stream amid a rush of bearish sentiment as BTC price dipped to $108,651, Kevin argued the drawdown should not surprise disciplined traders. He framed the current move in the context of months of caution dating back to early August, when he began highlighting weekly bearish divergences across Bitcoin, Ethereum and the total altcoin market (Total2), into what he described as four-plus-year resistance zones. “Everyone thinks these symmetrical triangle patterns after a move higher are continuation patterns,” he said, “but in reality, in the crypto market, very, very rarely do these break out to the upside.” He pointed to a progression of smaller impulse highs since late 2023 and reiterated that despite sharp rallies in select altcoins, the majors failed to clear “any major resistance levels.” Bitcoin Top In Until Proven Otherwise The anchor of Kevin’s case is confluence on higher time frames. On Bitcoin’s weekly chart, he outlined rising price highs against falling momentum—“simple strength and momentum indicators,” not signals by themselves but context that “has been dwindling for a very long time.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Funding Dynamics Shift As Binance Premium Signals Aggressive Longs Total2, he added, registered “a triple top on the weekly” beneath roughly $1.71–$1.74 trillion—“the all-be-all resistance level”—with weekly RSI and MACD rolling over. Stocks of momentum, in his read, are resetting precisely where they should amid historically thin late-summer liquidity. “Q3 is never a good quarter for crypto,” Kevin said. “August, September are terrible months. They always are.” Against that backdrop, he argued that USDT dominance remains the most reliable inter-market compass. “USDT dominance is the greatest chart ever. There is no better chart,” he said, walking through a macro descending triangle with a flat-bottom support near 3.9–3.7% and repeated rallies to a falling trendline that have mapped crypto cycle lows and highs for two years. Each approach to the flat bottom, he noted, has carved a W- or inverse-head-and-shoulders-style base in USDT.D while Bitcoin distributed near local tops; each rejection at the downtrend has coincided with crypto inflections. “You literally don’t need any chart in all of crypto,” he said. “All you need is Bitcoin and USDT dominance and you would have played this cycle absolutely perfectly.” From a tactical standpoint, Kevin flagged a three-month BTC liquidity “heat map” shelf near $106.8K and the 21-week EMA—the bull-market support band—near $109.2K as natural magnets, with the lower weekly Bollinger Band sitting around $101K. He stressed he doesn’t want to see “Bitcoin lose 106.8K” if the cycle remains intact, though a wick into that area to “swipe the liquidity” would be consistent with prior resets. He framed $98K as the line that should not break decisively. “There’s a whole lot of support in that range,” he said. “I’d be pretty shocked if Bitcoin wasn’t able to bounce in there somewhere.” All Eyes On Q4 Seasonality Kevin tied structural signals to an explicit macro checklist, arguing that lasting cycle tops and bottoms align with fundamental catalysts rather than charts alone. He cited 2021’s inflation spike and the onset of the Fed’s hiking cycle as the driver of that cycle’s 55–60% drawdown, the 2017 CME Bitcoin futures launch as a blow-off top catalyst, and the FTX collapse as the final capitulation in 2022 amid weekly bullish divergence. “There’s always a macro-related reason that correlates with the charts,” he said. By contrast, he sees no such cycle-ending macro trigger today: inflation gauges have been “very choppy” but contained; the Fed is widely expected to ease into year-end provided labor softens; and seasonality favors Q4. Related Reading: Bitcoin Days Away From Blowoff Or Cycle Top, Veteran Analyst Warns He underscored the near-term calendar—core PCE, CPI and labor data in the first half of October—as decisive for risk appetite. “Sometime in mid-October… we’ll start to have an idea of where this market is really going to go,” he said. “If we get to mid-October and Bitcoin’s holding key support… and we get good macroeconomic data, we get another rate cut… the probabilities favor that Bitcoin will [go higher]—and then you’re in Q4.” Volatility positioning, he added, argues for a sharp directional move once the reset completes. On the weekly Bollinger Band Width, Kevin said BTC has printed record-low readings three times this cycle—each in Q3—and each episode began with a downside break of 18–29% before surging to fresh highs. “There is a massive move coming for Bitcoin soon. It has not happened yet,” he said, noting spot volumes have declined since November while bands have tightened to historic extremes. A test of the lower weekly band near $101K “is possible,” but not required, in his view; the key is that the broader $107K–$98K corridor functions as a springboard. Kevin was equally explicit about invalidation and upside triggers. He labeled $125K “a major top for now” and said the market needs weekly and monthly closes above that level to confirm trend continuation. On dominance, he highlighted 59.0% and 60.28% as near-term resistance that could fuel a BTC-led phase if reclaimed; otherwise, he expects leadership to rotate back to altcoins once Bitcoin bases and USDT dominance prints a lower high. “Stop looking at the altcoins” until those inter-market signals flip, he advised, emphasizing patience, risk management and taking profits into resistance. His bottom line combines restraint with opportunism. “Hold $107k to 98K,” he repeated. “Go into October. Get through the first couple of weeks of macroeconomic data… Bitcoin will inevitably find a low on the back of that data and then eventually go higher.” But he warned that if macro arrives benign and “Bitcoin is still deteriorating,” traders should be ready to reassess the cycle thesis. Until then, Kevin’s message remains unapologetically unglamorous: respect the seasonal chop, track the inter-market tells, and let the higher-time-frame levels do the talking. “Being right is the best pat on the back you can get,” he said. “Not just saying things that get you a lot of clicks.” At press time, BTC traded at $109,607. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Despite recent fluctuations that saw the Bitcoin price retrace nearly 6% on a weekly basis, market expert Timothy Peterson remains bullish on the leading cryptocurrency’s future. The expert, also a Bitcoin author and economist, predicts that there is at least a 50% chance that the Bitcoin price could reach a new all-time high of $200,000 by June 2026, a forecast he shared on social media platform X (formerly Twitter) on Thursday. Optimistic Projections For The Bitcoin Price Peterson’s optimistic outlook is grounded in his analysis of the Median Bitcoin Yearly Price Path chart, which suggests that October typically marks the beginning of a new upward trend for the Bitcoin price, extending through to June of the following year. He elaborated that achieving the $200,000 target would require an average monthly return of approximately 7%, translating to an 120% annualized increase. Furthermore, he noted a 50% or greater likelihood of Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high by early November of this year. Related Reading: All-Time Highs For Gold, S&P500; Crypto Stands Alone In The Red – What’s The Root Cause? As seen in the chart below, Peterson outlined additionally, two potential bullish scenarios for Bitcoin’s trajectory. The most scenario points toward a surge to a new record of $240,000, while a more conservative estimate suggests a rise toward $160,000. Regardless, these indicators he referenced imply that the remainder of the year and subsequent months of 2026, could be marked by significant price increases for the market’s leading cryptocurrency. However, the broader crypto market performance has not been without its challenges. Investors Brace For Friday’s PCE Data On Thursday, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Solana (SOL), experienced a downturn as investors shifted their focus to upcoming economic data, particularly following a sharp market correction earlier in the week. Traders are particularly attentive to Friday’s personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred measure of inflation, which could have implications for future interest rate decisions. When interest rates decrease, more stable investments such as bonds or equities tend to offer lower yields, encouraging investors to seek riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. Related Reading: Ex-Binance CEO CZ Criticizes FT Report On YZi Labs, Calls It A ‘Negative Narrative’ Earlier in the week, a substantial sell-off occurred across the crypto market, marking the largest deleveraging event of the year. On Monday, many digital asset investors unwound bullish positions that had been established after the Fed’s recent quarter-point interest rate cut. Maja Vujinovic, CEO of Digital Assets at FG Nexus, commented on the situation, emphasizing that the recent liquidations stemmed from excessive leverage rather than failing market fundamentals. She noted, “Overheated funding post-Fed left traders exposed; once Bitcoin rolled over, forced unwinds hit ETH and altcoins hard.” Despite the cautious sentiment prevailing in the crypto market this week, Vujinovic pointed out that historical trends suggest these “leverage washes” often pave the way for a healthier market foundation. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is approaching a decisive inflection in its four-year cycle, with a euphoric “blowoff” advance likely to begin within days—or the market having already printed its peak at month 33—according to cycle analyst Bob Loukas. In a video published on September 24, 2025, Loukas told viewers he remains “heavily” inclined toward an imminent upside resolution into a cycle high during Q4, while outlining the risk markers that would instead confirm the top is already in. Bitcoin Blowoff Top Imminent Or Already In Loukas framed the present as the late stage of Bitcoin’s rising phase, noting that the advance from the bear-market low has been “a pretty consistent uptrend marked by these periods of outperformance that make up the majority of the gains in this cycle.” He argued that the current multi-month range resembles “one big foundation, one big solid block” built amid sustained distribution from long-term holders offset by persistent institutional demand. “We’ve seen a significant amount of whales selling… and that’s been kind of the pressure,” he said, adding that “significant buying support that we see from institutionals… has held the price in this range.” The central pillar of his bullish case is the absence of a terminal mania phase that has historically characterized cycle peaks. “What’s absent more importantly here is a blowoff to a high,” Loukas said. “In every cycle that we’ve had for Bitcoin into the four-year cycle high, we’ve had this three-month period… of euphoric buying and a significant price appreciation… and that leads to a peak.” With the market now around month 34 from the prior four-year-cycle low and seasonality turning favorable, he believes the conditions for that late surge are in place: “We really should be looking for a blowoff phase that is imminent, that is just about to begin in my opinion… We are at the most opportune time in the four-year cycle for such a move.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Will Soak Up Trillions From China And Russia, Billionaire Predicts Loukas placed the recent August high at month 33, a timing band that “pretty closely” echoes prior cycles and, in his words, makes a bearish interpretation “credible.” He stressed he is not ignoring the relative underperformance versus equities and the powerful rally in gold. From a purely structural standpoint, the move from the bear-market low to the month-33 high amounts to “a very healthy 700% rise,” and—under a diminishing-returns framework—could be a complete cycle in itself. “I give it an outside chance that it peaked on month 33… maybe 10% to 20%,” he said. Still, he argued that attempting to sidestep risk at this exact juncture is unwise “on the eve of a possible move up.” If the blowoff materializes, Loukas expects it to follow the established template of late-cycle weekly advances that compound rapidly over eight to fifteen weeks. He will not commit to a hard target, but he illustrated the magnitude with prior doubling moves. “A doubling from the lows here in the last few months—let’s call it $105k—gets us up to $210k… getting to the $200,000 level by December, although it sounds extremely optimistic… there is a pretty clear path to that possibility,” he said. He emphasized that execution should be guided by sentiment and overextension rather than round-number targets: “I think we want to be a little flexible… looking at how stretched this market can get.” Risk management was a major focus. Loukas flagged the 10-month moving average—“around about the $100,000 level”—as a late-cycle guardrail: “Closing a month out under the $100,000 is a major warning sign at this point.” He also marked the prior “big weekly cycle decline down at $75,000” as a line that “Bitcoin shouldn’t be anywhere near,” implying that a breach would be consistent with a bear market already underway. What To Expect Next On the upside, he wants confirmation via fresh all-time highs that establish clear invalidation below. “Ideally, what I want to see is a move back above the $120,000 level… if we get a move to new all-time highs, then that certainly would become my floor,” he said, adding that a subsequent reversal “back below the $105,000 level” after printing a new high would “indicate a change in trend and a likely top.” Related Reading: The ‘Once A Decade’ Bitcoin Moment No One Sees Coming Loukas also explored a third path: a more extended cycle that peaks in early 2026 with a shorter-than-usual bear phase. That scenario, he said, would probably not feature a classic blowoff and might advance in a “controlled rise” toward the $140,000–$160,000 area before consolidating and attempting a final push. Under that path, he would “play it week by week and month by month and give Bitcoin a chance to continue extending into Q1 of ’26 and beyond,” waiting for unmistakable euphoric conditions before distributing. While acknowledging that “everybody” is watching Q4 seasonality and four-year-cycle dynamics, Loukas cautioned against overthinking the consensus. “Historically… it ends up still unfolding in a similar way,” he said. For now, his base case is that the market is “on the cusp of a significant start to a final leg into the bull market high,” with a peak most likely in the 35–37-month window from the prior cycle low. If the market fails to deliver a sustained breakout and instead rolls over through his predefined levels, the analyst says he will treat that as confirmation that the cycle topped at month 33 and will pivot accordingly. “The point,” he concluded, “is we’re not trying to time an hourly or a daily or a weekly move. We’re in this [on] a four-year-cycle time frame.” The plan from here is simple, if not easy: “Stay humble… let the price action unfold… and try and capitalize on what I think will be the last move of this four-year cycle.” At press time, BTC traded at $111,740. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
After hitting its $124,000 all-time high back in July, the Bitcoin price has now moved back into a phase of struggling and consolidation. While many have called this out as only a temporary stop, expecting the Bitcoin price to continue its ascent once the decline is over, crypto analyst EXCAVO has taken a more bearish outlook. According to the analyst, the current market trend actually points to the end of the bull market and the beginning of the next bear market. Why The Bitcoin Price Will Crash In the analysis, EXCAVO outlined why they believe that the Bitcoin bear market was actually over. These were given as the classic signs of a top of the market, and there were three in total. The first of these is what the analyst referred to as “Universal Optimism.” This universal optimism simply points to the fact that everyone seems to be bullish at this point, in addition to seemingly bullish developments. EXCAVO points to the fact that governments are now accepting crypto and creating reserve funds as the reason universal optimism is a sign of the top. Related Reading: These Analysts Predicted The Bitcoin Price Crash And Their Forecasts Say It’s Not Over Next is that corporate buying has continued, especially for the likes of Bitcoin. Public companies such as Strategy have accumulated massive reserves of Bitcoin, with Ethereum treasuries not left out. These treasury companies have now bought tens of billions of dollars’ worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Last but not least, is that positive news around crypto is currently dominating the media. The analyst believes that with so much positive news and investors being reluctant to sell as they wait for higher prices, such as $200,000, $300,000, and $500,000, it is a signal that the Bitcoin price has topped. The Exit Strategy Playing into the idea that the Bitcoin price has topped and is headed into another bear market, the crypto analyst explained that they have sold everything. The plan is to wait until September 2026 before buying back in. According to the crypto analyst’s chart, they expect the Bitcoin price to fall below $61,000 at this time. Related Reading: XRP Burn Rate Suffers Drastic Crash To Near Zero, What’s Going On? The analyst also backs this up with the cycle theory, which says there are around 151 weeks of growth followed by 51 weeks of decline. Going by this, the growth phase is already completed, and between September 13 and October 6 is the beginning of the reversal zone that begins the bear market decline. Additionally, the crypto analyst also dismisses the idea of an altcoin season. Due to the large number of cryptocurrencies right now, sitting at over 1 million coins, EXCAVO says it is not possible for all coins to be pushed up at the same time, like it did in 2017. Rather, there will be selective pumps on altcoins that players are interested in. “I have not become a bear forever. I believe Bitcoin will hit $300,000. But not in the coming months,” the analyst stated. “It will be worth that in 2.5 years, after a healthy 50-60% correction from the peak.” Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com