Bitcoin’s long-term chart has produced another interesting price projection, as crypto analyst Crypto Tice is pointing out a technical roadmap needed for a rally to $500,000. This Bitcoin price forecast is based on a broad ascending channel that has guided the cryptocurrency through previous support tests, midrange rallies, and rejection zones. Notably, the latest structure is now positioned at what the analyst called the second major support touch. Bitcoin’s Bull Channel Structure Crypto Tice, a technical analyst on the social media platform X, analyzed a macro bull channel on Bitcoin’s weekly chart that has been governing price action across multiple cycles. The structure is a long-term ascending parallel channel, bounded by a lower rising support trendline and an upper rising resistance trendline. Related Reading: Why Ethereum Is About To Break The Bear Cycle And Rally To $8,000 The weekly candlestick chart shows Bitcoin reacting to the lower green boundary during the previous cycle low, rallying into the middle of the channel, facing rejection here, and then returning to support before beginning a stronger rally phase to the upper part of the channel. The analyst’s rationale is that Bitcoin has already completed the same sequence that appeared earlier in the channel. The first touch at support has already happened, the rally to the middle of the channel has already played out, and the rejection back into the lower region of the structure has also been completed. Based on this reading, Bitcoin is now sitting around the second major support touch, which is the zone where the analysis suggests a much larger move could begin. The second support touch is the most important part of the setup because it represents the point where Bitcoin is expected to prove that the larger channel is still intact. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @CryptoTice_ On X The Projection To $500,000 Bitcoin’s current position is very important. A defense of the lower trendline would mean that the leading cryptocurrency is not merely bouncing inside a weak market but building another expansion leg from a long-term channel support trendline. Related Reading: Trillion-Dollar Italian Bank Moves To XRP, But How Much Have They Bought? The next projection is a bounce off the support trendline and then a rally to the channel resistance line. The next price target sitting on the upper resistance band of the long-term bull channel is at $500,000. This target is plotted using the same way Bitcoin rallied the last time from support to the upper resistance band. It is worth noting that this is only a technical projection, and one that implies a move of more than six times from current price levels. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $77,075, having lost the $80,000 price level again. The broader analyst community is divided on Bitcoin’s path, and institutional forecasts for 2026 are generally in a range from $143,000 to $189,000. Crypto Tice’s analysis, however, is more of a long-term outlook and it offers a structural context for understanding where Bitcoin is in its long-term trajectory. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
CoinShares data shows investors are rotating into listed products based on XRP and SOL while bitcoin and ethereum products posted heavy weekly outflows.
Bitcoin (BTC) has slid sharply over the past week, retracing nearly 7% and wiping out the upside that built after last week’s Senate Banking Committee markup of the CLARITY Act. That legislative momentum helped push BTC above the $82,000 area, but the coin is now changing hands around $76,700. The Bitcoin Pullback Glassnode’s latest read on the situation points to a clear deterioration in short-term market behavior. The firm says the Bitcoin selling pressure has intensified, with Spot CVD falling by 848.7%. At the same time, spot volume is up about 4.2%, suggesting that more coins are moving through the market. Glassnode interprets this as rising activity that may not necessarily reflect a bullish mindset, but rather traders responding more aggressively to price volatility and hedging or repositioning. Related Reading: Goldman Sachs Rebalances Crypto Exposure: XRP, SOL Out, ETH Down 70%, Hyperliquid In Futures Open Interest also dropped 2.9%, which usually signals that traders are not as enthusiastic about adding leverage during uncertain conditions. However, Glassnode also notes that Long-Side Funding Payments have jumped 136.6%, a sign that demand for long Bitcoin exposure has reappeared. That bullish signal is not staying dominant for long, though. The firm highlights a steep 278.7% decline in Perpetual CVD, which points to strong sell-side pressure still showing up in the perpetual market, where downside control can quickly affect broader sentiment. Sentiment from traditional finance has also softened. Glassnode points to a 6.1% drop in US Spot Bitcoin ETF MVRV, alongside a sharp deterioration in ETF net flows, implying weaker conviction from institutional players. Bear Cycle Targets Beyond sentiment, Glassnode noted that long-term holder dominance continues to build, while NUPL and the Realized Profit-to-Loss Ratio have weakened sharply. Those shifts typically align with fading optimism—less “euphoria,” more defensive behavior as traders reassess risk after the pullback. Putting those signals together, Glassnode’s conclusion is that the Bitcoin market structure is beginning to soften. Momentum, spot demand, and speculative positioning are all described as weakening across the board. Related Reading: How To Time The Dogecoin Bottom And When The Price Will Reach $2 Adding to the bearish backdrop surrounding the cryptocurrency’s outlook, analyst Kabuki has argued on X (formerly Twitter) that Bitcoin is still operating within a “Bear Cycle,” despite the partial recovery seen since the start of the year after brief periods of relief. Kabuki’s analysis suggests that another bearish phase could unfold over the next few weeks, and he has highlighted specific targets for the cryptocurrency. He points to $71,000 “in days,” and then a much lower target of $42,000 in June, which could translate to a further 45% decline in BTC’s price from current trading levels. Featured image created with OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin has fallen about 6% from $82,000 to $76,800, but underlying data point to more than routine pullback.
Bitcoin has witnessed a drop back below the $77,000 level, and with it, the cryptocurrency has lost its recovery above the short-term holder cost basis. Bitcoin Has Fallen Under The STH Realized Price In a new post on X, analyst Maartunn has talked about how BTC’s move above the short-term holder Realized Price ended in rejection. The “Realized Price” here refers to an on-chain indicator that measures the cost basis of the average investor or address on the Bitcoin network. Related Reading: Ethereum Sell Signal That Last Preceded A 63% Drop Flashes Again When the spot price of the cryptocurrency is greater than this metric, it means the investors as a whole are in a state of net unrealized profit. On the other hand, the asset being under the indicator implies the dominance of loss on the blockchain. In the context of the current topic, the Realized Price of a specific investor group is of interest: the short-term holders (STHs). This cohort includes all addresses that purchased their coins within the past 155 days. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Realized Price for this group over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, Bitcoin dropped below the STH Realized Price with its crash in the last quarter of 2025 and stayed below it until the recent recovery rally. This surge finally resulted in the cryptocurrency climbing back above the line, thus putting the STHs back into the green. The profitable status couldn’t last for the cohort, however, as a pullback in the asset has meant that the spot price is once more below the indicator. In the past, the Bitcoin spot price finding rejection around the STH Realized Price is something that has often been witnessed during bearish phases. The reason behind the trend lies in selling from the group’s members that arises as a result of panic-exiting at the break-even level. The recovery attempt in January also fizzled out near the cost basis of these investors. Related Reading: Ethereum Dips To $2,250 As Trader Profit-Taking Hits 3-Week High In some other news, the long-term holders (LTHs), the counterpart of the STH cohort, have seen an uptrend in their supply recently, as CryptoQuant author Darkfrost has pointed out in an X post. From the chart, it’s visible that the Bitcoin LTHs saw their supply go down during the second half of 2025, indicating that the diamond hands of the network were selling. The trend changed this January, with the netflow of the group turning positive. Currently, this cohort controls a total of 15.26 million BTC. BTC Price Bitcoin dropped to a low of $76,700 during the latest retrace, but the coin has since bounced back a bit to $77,700. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Binance Research said a cluster of Bitcoin on-chain indicators is pointing toward tighter available supply and reduced sell pressure, with exchange balances falling to a six-year low as roughly 500,000 BTC have left trading venues since the COVID-era peak. In a May 17 thread, the research arm of Binance argued that four metrics now point in the same direction: long-term holders remain dominant, speculative activity is subdued, exchange supply has declined, and short-term holders are only beginning to rebuild unrealized profits. The combined readout, according to Binance Research, suggests that Bitcoin’s market structure has shifted away from forced selling and toward a more supply-constrained setup. “Four on-chain signals point to the same conclusion: supply is tightening and sell pressure is exhausted,” Binance Research wrote. Why Bitcoin Sell Pressure May Be Fading Fast The first signal centers on Bitcoin supply dormancy. Binance Research said nearly 60% of BTC supply has not moved in more than a year, compared with 27% in 2012. Dormant supply peaked at 69.5% in January 2024, the same month U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved. “Despite the subsequent sell-the-news reaction, supply dormancy has remained near historically elevated levels, suggesting sustained long-term holder conviction,” the firm wrote. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Fall To $78K Could Be A Bear Trap — Here’s Why For market participants, the implication is straightforward: a large portion of Bitcoin’s supply remains in the hands of holders that have shown little willingness to transact, even after major market events. High dormancy does not eliminate downside risk, but it can reduce the amount of supply immediately available to be sold into rallies or volatility spikes. The second metric cited by Binance Research was SLRV, a ratio used to compare shorter-term and longer-term coin activity. The firm said the indicator remains “deep in its historical bottom zone,” which it interpreted as a sign of market apathy rather than overheated speculation. “Long-term holders dominate supply while short-term speculators have largely exited,” Binance Research said. “Historically, every prior cycle bottom coincided with the ratio entering the shaded zone.” That framing is notable because it separates the current setup from periods driven primarily by fast-moving speculative capital. In Binance Research’s reading, the low SLRV level suggests that short-duration market participants have already been flushed out to a significant degree, leaving long-term holders with a larger share of active supply influence. Related Reading: Bitcoin At A Crossroads: These Are The Major Factors At Play Exchange balances form the third and most direct supply signal. According to Binance Research, Bitcoin held on exchanges has fallen from 17.6% of supply during the COVID-era peak to 15.0% today. The firm said that equates to around 500,000 BTC leaving exchanges, cutting available sell-side supply to a six-year low. That movement matters because coins held on exchanges are generally more liquid and more readily available for sale. A decline in exchange balances does not automatically mean those coins will never return, but it does indicate that less BTC is immediately positioned on trading platforms. In a market where marginal liquidity often drives price action, the shift can sharpen the impact of new demand if selling remains contained. The fourth signal relates to short-term holder profitability. Binance Research said BTC STH MVRV stayed below 1.0 for most of the period since November 2024, a condition it linked to the gradual exhaustion of sell-side pressure. The metric has now moved back above 1.0, meaning short-term holders are again sitting on unrealized gains. “BTC STH MVRV remained below 1.0 for most of the period since November 2024, gradually exhausting sell-side pressure — a dynamic historically consistent with cycle bottoms,” Binance Research wrote. “It has now reclaimed 1.0, marking the point where short-term holders begin rebuilding unrealized gains. With profit accumulation still in its early stages, a new wave of selling pressure is unlikely to materialize imminently — historically a setup that has preceded sustained recoveries.” At press time, BTC traded at $76,761. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s bearish momentum hit hardest on the technical charts, with the cryptocurrency breaking below all major exponential moving averages by early Monday. Trading around $76,750, it sat well beneath the 20-hour EMA at $77,580, the 50-hour at $78,120, the 100-hour at $78,767, and the 200-hour at $79,350. MACD indicators reinforced the downside pressure, with the line at negative 359, the signal at negative 243, and the histogram at negative 116. Related Reading: XRP Will Go ‘Higher, Much Higher,’ Analyst Says, Betting On Explosive Breakout Geopolitical Shock Hits An Already Weakened Market The slide began Sunday night after US President Donald Trump posted a pointed warning to Iran on Truth Social: “For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!” Trump wrote, following stalled diplomatic talks and a call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The post immediately rattled financial markets. Oil prices climbed. The US dollar strengthened. Investors pulled back from riskier assets — and Bitcoin was among the first to feel it. By early Monday, Bitcoin was trading at roughly $76,780, down about 1.55% over the prior 24 hours, according to Coingecko data. The day’s range ran from a low near $76,680 to a high of $78,530. Trading volume surpassed $24 billion. The drop erased approximately $33 billion from Bitcoin’s market capitalization in a matter of hours. ETF Outflows Had Already Set The Stage The Iran headlines landed on a market that was already under pressure. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a record single-day net withdrawal of $635 million on May 13 — the largest outflow since late January. That figure contributed to a total of $1 billion leaving ETF funds over the course of the week, snapping a six-week inflow streak. Additional redemptions followed in subsequent sessions, pointing to fading institutional appetite after a period of strong buying. Broader conditions made things worse. Sticky inflation figures — both PPI and CPI — weighed on sentiment. Rising Treasury yields added to the pressure. Thin weekend trading liquidity amplified every move. Bitcoin had pushed toward the $80,000 to $82,000 range earlier in May, buoyed by optimism around the Clarity Act. But repeated failures to break through resistance left the market exposed. Profit-taking set in. Related Reading: Warren Zeroes In On Crypto Deal Structure As $75M Loan Draws Attention Support And Resistance In Focus Traders are now watching two key zones closely. Resistance sits between $79,000 and $82,000. Downside support is clustered around $74,000 to $76,000. A relief bounce remains possible if geopolitical tensions ease — oversold conditions could attract buyers. But if the US-Iran standoff deepens or oil prices keep climbing, analysts say the selling pressure is unlikely to let up quickly. Featured image from Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images|Charly Triballeau/AFP via Getty Images, chart from TradingView
Strategy made a mammoth $2 billion bitcoin purchase last week, but it's not lifting crypto spirits or prices.
The bank said accelerating advances in quantum computing are compressing the timeline for risks to crypto and broader internet infrastructure, with Bitcoin seen as particularly exposed.
Michael Saylor and team added 24,869 BTC last week, bringing total holdings to 843,738 coins.
Bitcoin Depot, the largest bitcoin ATM operator in North America and publicly listed on Nasdaq, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
Ether and bitcoin led liquidations, as their prices dropped on macroeconomic concerns.
Long-term holders are still sitting tight and exchange balances remain near six-year lows, Binance Research data shows, but underwater short-term holders leave BTC vulnerable to macro shocks.
Bitcoin’s latest on-chain picture is beginning to look less like panic and more like patience. Data from CryptoQuant, highlighted by crypto analyst Darkfost, shows that long-term holder supply has climbed back to 15.26 million BTC, returning to a level last seen in August 2025. The move comes at a sensitive point for Bitcoin, with the price still trying to build strength around $80,000 while traders are currently split between another breakdown and a recovery. Related Reading: XRP Records Biggest Spike In Network Usage In 2 Months Long-Term Holders Add 316,000 BTC In 30 Days On-chain data tracked by CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin’s long-term holder (LTH) supply has recovered to 15.26 million BTC, levels last seen in August 2025. However, the most important detail in the CryptoQuant chart is not only that long-term holder supply is rising but also the speed of the increase in the past month. LTH supply has grown by roughly 316,000 BTC over the past 30 days. That means more coins are aging into long-term holder status, which is a category used to identify investors who have held their Bitcoin for at least about six months and are less likely to react to short-term volatility. As shown in the chart image below, the green bars representing the 30-day change in LTH supply have increased into positive territory in recent weeks, which is a distinct reversal from the red distribution phase that dominated late 2025. At the end of November, the same 30-day metric showed a negative change of about 650,000 BTC, meaning a large amount of supply had moved out of long-term holder wallets during that period. That earlier phase coincided with a more vulnerable market structure as Bitcoin rolled over from its October 2025 all-time high and began a deeper correction. Bitcoin LTH Supply Change Darkfost also relayed this change to the earlier movement of 800,000 BTC from Coinbase. His point is that May 23 could become an important date for on-chain discussions, as those coins will officially cross the six-month threshold. Once that happens, then investors could see more commentary around how much of that supply is being reclassified into the hands of long-term holders. Bitcoin Showing Strength The long-term holder data also fits into a separate outlook from analyst Michaël van de Poppe, who noted that the market may be too focused on new lows. According to the analyst, Bitcoin’s 25% rebound from its recent lows, despite Middle East war concerns and a rise in yields, is a sign of resilience. In his argument, losing the 21-day moving average does not automatically mean Bitcoin must collapse into new lows, especially since the price is still holding above $76,000. Van de Poppe also compared Bitcoin against gold, saying the BTC/gold RSI has fallen to one of its lowest readings ever. However, previous low readings in the BTC/gold RSI did not happen during the start of a bear market but came during the beginning of stronger Bitcoin phases. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @CryptoMichNL On X A crash to new lows would require Bitcoin to invalidate the 200-week moving average, something that would break most cycle behavior outside extreme shocks such as the Luna and FTX collapses in 2022. Related Reading: Warren Zeroes In On Crypto Deal Structure As $75M Loan Draws Attention This does not mean that Bitcoin cannot test lower support. A move to $70,000 could still happen as a support test, but the difference is that he does not see new lows as the most likely outcome. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
After springing back to life on the back of positive CLARITY Act development, the price of Bitcoin has been relatively quiet over the past few days. The premier cryptocurrency, which had been dancing around $82,000, is now barely above $78,000. According to a crypto trader on the social media platform X, the latest decline in Bitcoin’s price might not be what it seems and could be a fakeout. Divergence Between BTC Price, Open Interest Suggests Imminent Reversal Pseudonymous crypto pundit Cryptic Trades took to the X platform to share an interesting take on Bitcoin’s recent price decline. The market analyst posited that a combination of on-chain signals points to the formation of a trap for BTC short-position traders. Firstly, Cryptic Trades highlighted a divergence between Bitcoin’s price and the Open Interest metric, which measures the total number of outstanding derivative contracts for a cryptocurrency. While BTC’s price fell towards $78,000, the Open Interest metric has been on an upward trend. Related Reading: Is Zcash The Next Bitcoin? Investors Rush Into The Privacy Coin Narrative Typically, when price and Open Interest move in opposite directions, it means that a trend reversal (a return of bullish momentum, in this case) might be imminent. The trader also noted that the Funding Rates have been negative, which correlates with the ongoing divergence between Bitcoin’s price and Open Interest. The Funding Rates, which measure the periodic fee paid by short traders to long traders, or vice versa, are usually negative when bears are in control of the market (and are the ones making the payment). Cryptic Trades noted that negative Funding Rates suggest the bears are “doubling down” on their positions and continuously betting against the flagship cryptocurrency. “It also shows that even though the market structure remains intact, bears are shorting as if a breakdown already happened,” the crypto trader explained. According to Cryptic Trades, the confluence of these signals is how bear traps are formed, and that could be the current situation for Bitcoin. A bear trap is a deceptive price pattern that typically involves a drop in an asset’s value (often beneath a support level), tricking market participants into believing that a new downtrend has begun. It’s also important to note that extremely negative Funding Rates have often preceded a phenomenon known as a “short squeeze,” in which an asset’s price is driven higher by the forced closure of short positions. Hence, investors might want to exercise caution when entering any position at this juncture. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC is around $78,130, reflecting an over 1% decline in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Why Bitcoin Price Could Be Forming A Consolidation Structure Around $80,000 Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView
VerifiedX says its Bitcoin sidechain enables programmable, privacy-preserving transactions without synthetic wrappers, targeting growing institutional demand for native DeFi on the original blockchain system.
Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin has struggled to break above the $82,000 price resistance and now trades near $78,000. While the integrity of either of these zones carries significant yet different implications for the flagship cryptocurrency’s growth, a crypto research and education group has revealed that several factors indicate a growing fragility in the market. Leveraged Risks On The Rise As ETF Outflows Surge In a recent Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, XWIN Research Japan delved into multiple on-chain signals that collectively flashed a signal of uncertainty for the Bitcoin market. The crypto research group began by citing Axel Adler Jr.’s Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR). For context, the ELR measures the amount of leverage traders are using in the Bitcoin futures market by comparing open interest to the amount of BTC held on exchanges. In the Quicktake post, the education group highlighted that the ELR had surged toward 14.9% — a sign that traders are increasingly borrowing capital to maintain their bullish exposures. Related Reading: Why Bitcoin Price Could Be Forming A Consolidation Structure Around $80,000 XWIN Research Japan noted that although high leverage can boost prices in the near-term, “healthy bull markets are usually driven by spot demand.” According to the analytics firm, current conditions only increase the Bitcoin market’s vulnerability to sudden liquidation events. Notably, there have been significant surges in both Open Interest and Funding Rates, reflecting an overwhelming presence of long positions. XWIN Research Japan pointed out that this could be a dangerous scenario, as “long positions are now increasingly exposed to downside volatility” following Bitcoin’s recent move to $82,000, also driven by sell-side liquidity. Interestingly, all of these are ongoing, as US-based institutions seem to be on a hiatus (as reflected in a prolonged negative reading of the Coinbase Premium). More shockingly, US Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw almost $1 billion in capital outflows over the past week, according to XWIN Research Japan. To further paint a clear picture of the market situation, XWIN Research cited the lingering backdrop of worsening macroeconomic conditions. The crypto research group highlighted that the US 10-year Treasury yield has surged to near 4.6%, while the 30-year yield jumped above 5%. — both of which reveal that the markets currently lean towards the “higher for longer” rates. Liquidity Still On The Sidelines: Research Group Despite these conditions, XWIN Research emphasized that the market remains definitely bearish. According to the group, Bitcoin Long-term Holders hold more than 15 million BTC, with more than 316,000 BTC entering the market over the past month. Furthermore, XWIN Research highlighted a concurrently growing liquidity pool on Binance (the world’s leading crypto exchange by trading volume), as reflected in its stablecoin inflows. Ultimately, the research institute highlighted the $78K–$79K range, which overlaps with the STH Realized Price. If this key level fails, XWIN Research expects bearish pressure to immediately rise. On the other hand, ETF flow stability should give Bitcoin some bullish thrust as the Coinbase Premium recovers. As of this writing, Bitcoin is worth about $78,194, recording a daily loss by 1.2%. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bottom Zone Now Lies Around $59,000 Based On This On-Chain Metric Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin continues to face strong resistance as bulls struggle to reclaim higher price levels and restore upward momentum. With the market failing to break key resistance zones, attention is now shifting toward major Fibonacci support areas, where buyers could attempt to stabilize the current decline and prevent a deeper correction. Recovery Hopes Fade Unless Resistance Levels Break After failing to break above the $82,885 resistance peak, Bitcoin is experiencing selling pressure. According to crypto analyst Kamile Uray, the 4-hour chart still points to ongoing downside risk, with price action likely to remain weak as long as Bitcoin trades below the critical $78,203 level. Related Reading: Why Bitcoin Still Needs Massive Capital Inflows To Ignite True Bull Run Uray explained that if BTC remains under $78,203, the decline could continue toward the $74,929 region, where buyers may attempt to step in and slow the downward momentum. However, failure to generate a meaningful recovery from that zone could trigger a much deeper correction across the broader market. The analyst also highlighted the $71,000–$68,000 range as a major Fibonacci support area where stronger buying interest could emerge. On the upside, key resistance levels to monitor remain around $98,000 and the $107,000–$109,000 region, which could act as a major barrier if Bitcoin attempts another recovery rally. Meanwhile, on the downside, the analyst pointed to the $60,000 level as a critical support zone, noting that a daily close below it would significantly strengthen bearish control and turn any future rallies into corrective bounces rather than signs of a sustained recovery. Bitcoin Stays Range-Bound As Market Awaits Breakout Signal Crypto analyst Ultimae noted that Bitcoin has remained stuck in a range-bound structure for the past 10 days, with price action showing little momentum in either direction. According to the analyst, the market is currently stabilizing around the $78,700 level, which had previously been identified as a key support zone. Related Reading: Why The $65,000 Region Is Important As Bitcoin Gears Up To Face Massive Resistance At These Levels Currently, holding above this support remains important for maintaining short-term stability. However, if Bitcoin breaks decisively below it, the next downside target could be around $77,000 as bearish pressure intensifies. On the upside, the analyst pointed out that the $80,000 area is no longer acting as a major resistance barrier, while the more significant resistance level remains near $83,000. A successful breakout above that region could strengthen bullish momentum and potentially open the door for a move toward the $87,000 target zone. For now, Ultimae believes Bitcoin is likely to remain trapped within its current range unless the market produces a clear directional breakout. As long as neither support nor resistance is decisively broken, the broader outlook continues to favor sideways consolidation rather than the start of a strong trending move. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
The Bitcoin price has surged towards the $80,000 mark over the past few weeks, signaling an ongoing resurgence from the bear-market lows observed in the first quarter of 2026. However, the premier cryptocurrency appears to have run out of the bullish impetus to sustain its current recovery, as it hovers around a psychological price level. Interestingly, the latest on-chain data shows that the Bitcoin price could be forming a consolidation range around the $80,000 region. Weak Coinbase Demand, Zero Binance Sell Pressure Forms ‘Equilibrium Of Apathy’: Analyst In a May 15 post on the social media platform X, market analyst CryptoOnchain revealed that a “Low-Velocity Consolidation” setup seems to be forming in the current Bitcoin price structure. This evaluation is based on a confluence of three on-chain signals over the past couple of weeks. Related Reading: Ethereum Network Registers Strongest Profit Realization In Weeks — What This Means Firstly, CryptoOnchain shared that the Network Value to Transaction metric has been in an uptrend in recent weeks. This indicator measures the ratio of a cryptocurrency’s (Bitcoin, in this case) market capitalization to transaction volume, offering insight into whether an asset is over- or undervalued. When this metric is high (as it currently is), it means that the Bitcoin price growth is no longer being supported by actual network activity (or increasing transaction value). Hence, a further expansion in BTC’s price, especially in the short term, might not be feasible. CryptoOnchain noted that, at the same time, there has been a significant Bitcoin supply drought on Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume. The analyst stated that the Binance Inflow CDD metric has dropped 99.5% since April, with Bitcoin long-term holders showing a reluctance to sell their assets. The third metric highlighted by CryptoOnchain is the Coinbase Premium, which measures the demand from institutional investors in the United States. According to data from CryptoQuant, there appears to be some apathy among US investors, as the Coinbase Premium has remained largely negative in recent weeks. CryptoOnchain explained that this combination of weak demand and zero sell pressure from two of the largest exchanges creates an “Equilibrium of Apathy.” These illiquid conditions, compounded by low Binance leverage, are often precursors to a volatility squeeze, the on-chain pundit concluded. Could This Volatility Squeeze Trigger The Next Bitcoin Price Move? For context, a volatility squeeze is a technical analysis pattern (shown by contracting Bollinger Bands) that signals a period of consolidation. What’s interesting is that this technical pattern has historically preceded significant price breakouts. Hence, from an optimistic perspective, the current period of inactivity in the Bitcoin price could simply be the “calm before the storm.” As of this writing, the price of BTC sits just above the $79,000 mark, reflecting an almost 3% decline in the past day. Related Reading: Bitcoin Fails $82,000 Breakout Three Times As Short-Term Holders Sell Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Crypto analyst Gargoyle has advised market participants not to buy Bitcoin until it sees high volume, which could mark the bottom. This comes amid BTC’s recent drop below the psychological $80,000 level, with the leading crypto at risk of another decline. Analyst Advises Against Buying Bitcoin Until Bottom Is Confirmed In an X post, Gargoyle advised against buying Bitcoin until the bottom is confirmed. He indicated that the BTC bottom forms when there is massive volume and that this massive volume hasn’t happened yet. The analyst alluded to the 2022/2023 cycle, when the capitulation spike marked the bottom for BTC. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Basis Remains High Within Biggest Supply Cluster However, at the moment, this capitulation spike hasn’t occurred with Bitcoin’s volume still moderate, suggesting that market participants aren’t truly panicking yet despite the downtrend. Gargoyle further noted that the hardest flush always comes after retail thinks it is over for BTC, which then leads to a spike in volume as investors capitulate. The analyst’s accompanying chart showed that Bitcoin could still drop to around $45,000 before it bottoms, while this could happen between now and the start of next year. Once that happens, BTC could then see a reversal as it targets a new all-time high (ATH). Notably, BTC had rallied over the past week to as high as $83,000, providing optimism that the bear market may be over. However, Bitcoin has since dropped below $80,000, raising concerns that the bear market may still be in force, as some analysts, such as Doctor Profit, had warned. The analyst had also mentioned before that BTC will likely bottom between September and October later this year based on its historical cycle patterns. BTC Bound To Decline If Stock Market Crashes Crypto analyst Colin warned that the current stock market pump is the only thing keeping Bitcoin afloat. He further noted that, in the short term, the S&P 500 appears bullish following the recent megaphone breakout. However, in the longer term, the economic backdrop doesn’t look good for these stocks and, by extension, for BTC. Related Reading: Analyst Says Avoid Bitcoin At All Costs; Here’s What To Do Instead As 50% Crash Looms Colin alluded to the CPI and PPI, which are both running hot, with inflation rising due to the U.S.-Iran war. The analyst stated that this is not a favorable environment for a Bitcoin “super cycle,” as some bulls are claiming. It is worth noting that the market is also beginning to price in a rate hike this year, which is bearish for the leading crypto. As such, with the macro environment not looking good, Colin suggested that BTC will crash if the stock market sees any significant drop in the future. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $79,000, down over 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin (BTC) dropping below the $80,000 mark is starting to undo some of the optimism that followed a major step forward for the industry. After the Senate Banking Committee markup for the CLARITY Act on Thursday, the market’s gains have since faded. Now, fresh inflation data is arriving with a potentially heavier hand, and analysts say it could further cool sentiment that traders had hoped would carry into stronger price action. The concern is not limited to Bitcoin: the same macro pressure could spill into Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), where conditions often translate into sharper day-to-day moves. ‘Broadly Bearish’ For Bitcoin Market expert Alex Carchidi of The Motley Fool frames April’s inflation reading as particularly difficult to absorb. According to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on May 12, prices rose 3.8% year over year. A key driver was energy, which jumped 17.9% as costs climbed amid the US-Iran conflict. Related Reading: Bitcoin And XRP Climb On CLARITY Act News—But Clear Path To Law Isn’t Done Yet In Carchidi’s view, the inflation impulse is not just another routine print—it reflects real supply disruption. The analysis points specifically to the blocking of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, an event that has helped push energy prices higher and, in turn, lifts overall inflation. The report also showed core inflation, which excludes food and energy, moving higher than many expected. Core CPI increased to 2.8% year over year, edging above forecast. Taken together, Carchidi describes the figures as broadly bearish for Bitcoin and the broader crypto sector, but he stresses that the effect will not be identical across major coins. Risk-On In The Spotlight Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana are all likely to face consequences, yet their market positioning relative to inflation and liquidity differs enough to matter. One major reason Bitcoin may be more resilient—at least in theory—is that crypto markets often respond to the cost and availability of capital. Carchidi notes that “crypto thrives on cheap capital.” However, with the macro backdrop changing, the expectation is that the “spigot” for liquidity could be tightening rather than widening. That brings the Federal Reserve into focus. The Fed has kept its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75% across three consecutive meetings. Still, traders are watching for a shift in policy expectations, pricing in roughly a 30% probability of a rate hike by the end of the year. Carchidi says this matters more for Ethereum and Solana than for Bitcoin. His rationale is tied to how these assets are commonly perceived by the market. ETH and SOL, in the expert’s words, are typically treated as risk-on holdings, and they do not have an established “inflation hedge” story that investors can fall back on during periods of persistent inflation pressure. Bitcoin, by contrast, has long been positioned—by supporters—as a scarce asset that could act as an inflation hedge, which can provide a different kind of narrative support when traditional assets and macro assumptions shift. Near-Term Warning For Ethereum And Solana Cardichi suggests that if the energy shock eventually leads to broader monetary loosening, Bitcoin’s scarcity-based argument could become more compelling again over a multiyear horizon. Related Reading: Zcash (ZEC) Rockets 1,200%—Expert Says ZEC Could Soon Outgrow Cardano (ADA) Even then, he emphasizes that this is conditional—an “if, not a when”—and that the market would need data-driven confirmation for the renewed case to feel convincing. For Ethereum and Solana, the near-term picture is less optimistic in his conclusion. Their value, according to Carchidi, depends more on the networks gaining traction with users and attracting capital to their platforms. Featured image created with OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is struggling to push above $82,000 as the market heats up and buyers search for the momentum needed to break through resistance that has now rejected three separate attempts. The price action is grinding, and analyst Axel Adler has identified the specific mechanism behind that resistance — one that goes beyond the technical level itself to describe the behavioral dynamic that is actively maintaining it. Related Reading: The 2022 Playbook Says Bitcoin Fails Here. On-Chain Data Says This Cycle Is Different The chart Adler examines places Bitcoin in a narrow corridor defined by two precise boundaries. Below, the short-term holder realized price for the one-week to one-month cohort sits at approximately $77,900 — the level at which recent buyers break even and below which selling pressure tends to ease as holders become reluctant to realize losses. Above, the 200-day simple moving average sits at approximately $82,100 — the technical boundary that has defined the ceiling of every recovery attempt since April. Between those two levels, Bitcoin has made three distinct attempts to break higher. All three ended in pullbacks. Volume during each attempt showed no abnormal expansion — meaning the rallies toward $82,100 were not driven by aggressive, high-conviction buying that could overpower the supply waiting above. They were moves that ran into overhead resistance without the force required to clear it. The resistance at $82,100 is real. The question Adler’s analysis answers is why it has held three times — and what specifically would have to change for the fourth attempt to produce a different result. The Resistance at $82K Is Not Just a Line on a Chart. It Is a Behavior Adler’s second chart completes the explanation for why three attempts at $82,100 have produced three identical outcomes. The Short-Term Holder SOPR — which measures whether recent buyers are selling at a profit or a loss — has recovered from the extreme negative readings of February 2026 but has not managed to hold sustainably above the 1.0 breakeven level. The pattern that keeps repeating is precise and documented: each time Bitcoin attempts to push higher, SOPR briefly moves toward 1.0, then falls back. Short-term holders are using every rally to exit at breakeven rather than holding in anticipation of further upside. The mechanism Adler identifies connects the two charts directly. Each of the three failed breakout attempts visible in the support and resistance data was accompanied by the same SOPR behavior — a brief move toward 1.0 followed by a reversal. This is not three separate coincidences. It is the same dynamic expressing itself three times: as Bitcoin approaches $82,100, short-term holders who have been underwater reach their exit level and sell. That selling absorbs the buying pressure that drove the rally and prevents the price from clearing the resistance. The specific trigger Adler identifies for breaking the pattern is equally precise. A sustained hold of the seven-day SOPR average above 1.0 for several consecutive days would signal that short-term holders have stopped using rallies to exit — that they are beginning to hold through strength rather than sell into it. Until that behavioral shift appears in the data, the fourth attempt at $82,100 will face the same supply that stopped the first three. Related Reading: Ethereum Leverage Tells Two Different Stories On Binance And OKX: Traders Face A Fragile Setup Bitcoin Holds Above Key Moving Averages While Facing Heavy Resistance Bitcoin is trading around $80,400 after another rejection near the $82,000 region, a level that continues to act as the primary resistance barrier for the current recovery trend. The daily chart shows BTC maintaining a constructive structure overall, with price still trading above the 100-day moving average while attempting to consolidate beneath the 200-day moving average, currently positioned near the local highs. The chart highlights a strong recovery from the February capitulation event that briefly pushed Bitcoin toward the low-$60,000 range. Since then, bulls have established a sequence of higher lows and higher highs, signaling improving market structure and renewed demand. However, momentum appears to be slowing as BTC approaches the long-term resistance cluster around $82,000. Related Reading: XRP Holds Key Level, But Binance Flow Data Signals Weakening Demand Volume during the latest breakout attempts has remained relatively moderate, suggesting buyers are still lacking the aggressive participation needed to force a decisive move above the 200-day moving average. Meanwhile, the highlighted support zones between $72,000-$73,000 and $64,000-$65,000 remain critical demand areas if a broader pullback develops. For now, Bitcoin continues to compress beneath resistance while preserving its bullish recovery structure, leaving the market positioned for a potentially significant directional move in the coming weeks. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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Led by Michael Saylor, the company aims to retire half of its outstanding 0% 2029 converts as it restructures liabilities tied to its bitcoin treasury strategy.
Bitcoin has failed three attempts to break above the $82,000 area, with short-term holders repeatedly selling into strength, according to a May 15 market brief from on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. The setup puts the market in a narrow technical and behavioral squeeze, where the 200-day simple moving average is acting as resistance while short-term holder profitability metrics remain stuck near break-even. Adler’s latest Bitcoin Morning Brief frames the current structure as more than a standard resistance test. Price is trapped between the realized cost basis of short-term holders and the 200-day SMA, with each bounce drawing the same response from recent buyers: distribution rather than renewed conviction. “Price is stuck between the realized cost basis level of short-term holders and the 200D SMA, and every bounce meets the same reaction: STH are using strength to exit, preventing the market from moving higher,” Adler wrote. “Together, the two charts show not just technical resistance, but a behavioral trap.” The key level in Adler’s analysis is $82.1K, identified as the 200-day SMA and the upper boundary of the current resistance zone. Bitcoin has approached that level three times since April 2026, but each attempt ended in a pullback. Below spot, Adler points to the STH 1W-1M Realized Price at $77.9K as the main support reference, leaving Bitcoin compressed in a roughly $4,200 corridor. Related Reading: Bitcoin Just Entered A Deceptive Territory, Here’s What You Should Know That range matters because it combines a widely watched trend indicator with the cost basis of recent market participants. In Adler’s reading, the lack of abnormal volume spikes during the failed upside attempts suggests that buyers have not shown enough aggression to absorb the supply being offered near the top of the range. “As long as price remains below $82.1K, the resistance structure stays intact,” the brief said. “Confirmation of a regime change would require a confident daily close above the 200D SMA alongside rising volume. Without that, every bounce remains a candidate for selling.” Bitcoin STH SOPR Remains The Market’s Pressure Gauge The second part of Adler’s argument centers on short-term holder SOPR, a metric that tracks whether recently moved coins are being spent at a profit or loss. According to the brief, STH SOPR has recovered from the extreme lows seen in February 2026, but it has still failed to hold sustainably above the 1.0 threshold. That level is central to the current read. When STH SOPR moves toward 1.0 and rolls over, it suggests short-term holders are using rallies to exit around break-even rather than staying positioned for further upside. Adler said both the seven-day and 30-day moving averages are hovering near that boundary, reinforcing the idea that supply is reappearing exactly where a stronger rally would need confirmation. Related Reading: Jane Street Cuts Bitcoin ETF Exposure By 71%: Why This Could Be Bullish “Every time price attempts to rise, SOPR briefly moves up toward 1.0, then quickly falls back again,” Adler wrote. “This means that STH are using rallies to exit rather than holding positions in anticipation of further upside. This pattern is a sign of a market where supply dominates demand in the break-even zone.” The interaction between the two charts is the main point of the brief. Adler argues that the failed breakouts near $82.1K were accompanied by STH SOPR pushing toward 1.0 and then reversing, making the resistance zone both technical and behavioral. The 200-day SMA defines the chart barrier; short-term holder selling helps enforce it. “This is not a coincidence, but a mechanism,” Adler wrote. “Resistance at $82.1K is being maintained not only technically through the 200D SMA, but also behaviorally — by STH themselves, who use this zone to sell whenever the market tries to move higher.” Breakout Conditions Remain Narrow For Adler, the bullish trigger is clear but unconfirmed. Bitcoin would need a decisive daily close above $82.1K, supported by rising volume, while the STH SOPR seven-day moving average would need to hold above 1.0 for several consecutive days. That combination would indicate not only a technical break of the 200-day SMA, but also a shift in short-term holder behavior from selling at break-even to holding positions in profit. Until then, the current regime remains neutral with a cautious bias. A fourth rejection near the same zone would risk sending price back toward $77.9K, Adler’s cited short-term holder support level. If that support fails to hold, the brief warns that lower support levels could come back into view. The market, in other words, is not waiting only for price to clear a line on the chart. It is waiting for recent buyers to stop treating that line as an exit. At press time, BTC traded at $80,453. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Strategy now holds 818,869 Bitcoin, worth roughly $66 billion at current prices — a position that has become the largest corporate Bitcoin reserve anywhere in the world. That stockpile keeps growing, and the instrument fueling much of the buying just broke a record. Related Reading: Bitcoin Faces Major Test As 37% Recovery Collides With Bear Resistance A New Kind Of Funding Tool STRC, the company’s Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock, recorded $1.53 billion in trading volume on Thursday — the highest single-day figure it has ever posted. Chairman Michael Saylor announced the milestone on social media, calling it an all-time high in liquidity. The preferred stock, known informally as Stretch, has become Strategy’s go-to method for raising money to buy Bitcoin in 2026, stepping in as other funding channels have grown harder to access. Senior convertible notes and at-the-market equity offerings have both tightened over the past year, pushing the company toward preferred stock as its primary capital source. All-time high volume. $1.53B of liquidity. Two cents of volatility. Closed at par. $STRC pic.twitter.com/aS0dSlkm7d — Michael Saylor (@saylor) May 14, 2026 Stretch works by paying investors an 11.5% dividend without touching the company’s common shares. That structure keeps existing shareholders from being diluted while still bringing in fresh capital. Based on data from the STRC.live tracker, Thursday’s trading performance could allow Strategy to raise an estimated $735 million — enough, in theory, to acquire around 9,066 Bitcoin. Whether the company will move forward with a purchase based on those funds remains unclear. The Broader Bitcoin Buying Spree Strategy’s pace of acquisition has picked up sharply. The company has bought 56,770 Bitcoin since April and more than 101,000 since March, bouncing back after a slow February. Bitcoin’s own price movement has helped the math: the recent rally to around $81,000 pushed above Strategy’s average purchase price of $75,543, putting its holdings up 7%. During a first-quarter earnings call on May 5, Saylor said he wants Stretch to become the largest credit instrument in the world. Reports indicate the company posted a $1.25 billion net loss in Q1 as Bitcoin fell during that period, though the situation has since shifted with the price recovery. Strategy is not alone in using this type of structure. Strive announced Thursday that holders of its own preferred stock, SATA, would begin receiving daily dividends starting June 16 — a faster payout schedule than the monthly distributions Stretch offers. Tokyo-based Metaplanet has also raised funds through preferred stock instruments called MARS and MERCURY to buy Bitcoin. Related Reading: XRP Holders Put On Alert As David Schwartz Flags Dangerous New Scam A Crowded Field With One Giant Nearly 200 public companies now hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets. Strategy remains far ahead of all of them. Its 818,869-coin position dwarfs every other corporate holder, and the company shows no signs of slowing the accumulation. Preferred stock, for now, is the engine making that possible. Featured image from Free3D, chart from TradingView
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Heavy trading volume ahead of the ex-dividend date pushed STRC to its busiest session on record.
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Data shows the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap has plunged into the red zone alongside the latest drop in the BTC spot price below the $80,000 level. Bitcoin Has Retraced Some Of Its Recent Price Recovery Bitcoin saw recovery surges above $82,000 on Sunday and Monday, but these spikes failed to set the tone for the week as BTC has since followed a downward trajectory. This decline observed an acceleration on Wednesday, with the cryptocurrency’s price even briefly sinking below $79,000. Related Reading: Dogecoin TD Sequential Flashes Sell Signal: Price Correction Ahead? Below is a chart that shows the price action that Bitcoin has experienced recently. As is visible in the graph, Bitcoin has made some recovery from its low, as its price is now floating around $79,600, but compared to the Sunday high, it remains down about 3.3%. Now, what was the cause behind the drop? The data of the Coinbase Premium Gap may provide some hints. BTC Coinbase Premium Gap Has Turned Negative Recently As pointed out by analyst Maartunn in an X post, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap has declined recently. This indicator measures the difference between the BTC spot price listed on Coinbase (USD pair) and that on Binance (USDT pair). When the value of the metric is positive, it means BTC is going for a higher rate on Coinbase than on Binance. Such a trend implies users of the former are applying a higher buying pressure (or lower selling pressure) than the latter’s traders. On the other hand, the indicator having a sub-zero value suggests Binance investors may be applying a higher buying pressure as BTC is trading at a higher price on the platform. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the recent trend in the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap has dipped into the red zone recently, indicating that the asset has been trading at a discount on Coinbase. These negative values in the metric have coincided with the cryptocurrency’s pullback, a potential sign that selling pressure on the platform may have a role to play in it. Bitcoin showing some correlation to the Coinbase Premium Gap isn’t a new development. In fact, it’s a pattern that has established itself in recent years. The reason behind it lies in the growing presence of the US-based institutional entities in the cryptocurrency sector, which happen to be the biggest users of Coinbase. Related Reading: Ethereum Open Interest Rises While Price Pulls Back: Short Squeeze Setup? Movements in the indicator can correspond to selling/buying behaviors of these massive investors, which is why the price tends to react to them. It now remains to be seen how the metric will develop in the coming days and whether the distribution from the American whales will ease off. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com