Data shows the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index remained at negative levels despite the rebound in BTC’s spot price back toward $78,000. Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap Points To Selling Pressure From US Traders As pointed out by analyst Axel Adler Jr in an X post, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index has been inside the negative territory recently. This indicator tracks the percentage difference between the BTC spot price listed on Coinbase (USD pair) and that on Binance (USDT pair). Related Reading: Bitcoin ETF Inflows Are Underperforming In 2026, Data Shows In short, what this metric tells us about is how the trader’s buying and selling behaviors compare between Coinbase and Binance. Below is the chart shared by Adler Jr that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index over the past year: As is visible in the graph, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index was at mostly positive levels during the second half of 2025, indicating that the asset was going for a higher price on Coinbase as compared to Binance. Such a trend naturally implies that Coinbase users were providing a higher amount of buying pressure. The trend flipped toward the end of the year as Coinbase users took to selling alongside the price drawdown. From the chart, it’s visible that 2026 only furthered the downward trajectory in the metric, with a massive negative peak coming alongside the crash at the start of February. As the market has stabilized since this crash, the index has also calmed down, but negative values have still largely dominated. Interestingly, the latest streak of red levels has come despite the recent recovery that BTC has witnessed. Coinbase’s main traffic is made up of US-based investors, with institutional entities from the nation being prominent customers for the platform. The spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have been around for nearly 2.5 years now and have acted as a gateway for institutions, also use the exchange as a custodian. In recent years, the price has often tended to correlate with the Coinbase Premium Index, suggesting that American whales have driven the market. As such, it may not be surprising that the recent recovery surge fizzled out when Coinbase users didn’t back it. Related Reading: Bitcoin Fall Under $77,000 Triggers Spike In Social Media FUD This pattern may also have played out again on a shorter timeframe. During the past day, Bitcoin witnessed a surge back toward the $78,000 level, but the move couldn’t last, and the coin has since retraced. The Coinbase Premium Index is sitting at a value of -0.098 right now, which is the lowest level this month. This relatively high selling pressure on Coinbase may be the source of the retrace. BTC Price Bitcoin has returned to the $77,300 mark following its latest pullback. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin continues to show resilience despite mounting bearish pressure below the critical $78,800 resistance zone. While short-term volatility and repeated rejections have slowed bullish momentum, the broader market structure still indicates an active uptrend, as buyers continue to defend key support levels and position for another potential rebound. BTC Finds New Support Around The $77,000 Region In a recent market assessment, Ultimae highlights that while Bitcoin briefly dipped below the $78,700 support level, the $77,000 zone is currently functioning as the primary defensive floor. This transition suggests that the market is successfully absorbing the recent selling pressure, with $77,000 acting as a key technical pivot for bulls to stabilize the price. Related Reading: Bitcoin Struggles Below Resistance While Fibonacci Support Comes Into Focus Currently, market participants are closely monitoring the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as a decisive technical indicator. The asset’s ability to hold above this moving average suggests that short-term momentum is attempting to base, providing a foundation for the next potential leg of the move. Should price action result in a clear breach of this immediate support, $75,700 is the next immediate area of interest where liquidity may be gathered. Further downside pressure from that point would bring the $73,500 support into focus, a level that has historically served as a critical zone for institutional interest. Despite the recent pullback, Ultimae maintains a distinctly bullish perspective, asserting that Bitcoin’s broader uptrend remains firmly intact. The analyst views the current price decline as a healthy consolidation phase rather than a shift in the longer-term structural trend. To invalidate this upward structure, the price would need to break decisively through the support line of the red box highlighted on the chart. Until that boundary is breached, the current market environment is viewed as constructive. While a minor drift toward $73,500 remains a possibility, the expectation is for a recovery bounce to materialize soon. Bitcoin Rebounds Strongly After Triple Retest Of Bullish Order Block Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience by retesting the 4-hour bullish order block (OB) three times, resulting in a healthy rebound of $1,700 that successfully cleared the $77,400 resistance level. According to analyst Qingtianbtc, this recovery to the $78,300 level and the subsequent move toward the 4-hour bearish OB are well within expected market behavior. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Hit Near $95,000 If It Holds Above This Critical Support, Top Analyst Says The current upward movement is interpreted as a temporary relief rally rather than a trend reversal. Investors should anticipate that any push into the $78,300 to $78,800 range will serve as a point of exhaustion before the asset resumes its downward trajectory. Meanwhile, the 4-hour bearish OB, spanning from $78,800 to $79,600, currently acts as a zone of significant resistance. ng the asset, as a sustained breakout above this range remains unlikely in the immediate term. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
A crypto analyst is urging traders and investors to keep a close eye on a bearish Order Block (OB) level on the Bitcoin (BTC) price chart. According to the expert, this OB level sits within a critical zone near $90,000, which could determine BTC’s next directional move, with the cryptocurrency either continuing to the upside or experiencing a sharp rejection toward lower levels. With Bitcoin currently trading around $77,000, a positive reaction to this OB level could open the door for a fresh price rally. Bitcoin’s Bearish OB Level Signals Make Or Break Zone A TradingView crypto analyst known as ‘Fullpriceaction’ has shared a fresh Bitcoin analysis, predicting a bearish and bullish price outlook depending on how the leading cryptocurrency reacts to a critical level. The analyst described this area as a “bearish OB level,” which is a price zone where large institutional players such as hedge funds, market makers, and banks placed heavy sell orders before a significant price drop. Related Reading: Why The $65,000 Region Is Important As Bitcoin Gears Up To Face Massive Resistance At These Levels Fullpriceaction noted that Bitcoin’s bearish OB level is currently sitting between the $94,000 and $98,000 range. At the time of writing, this order block level sits far above BTC’s current price, meaning the cryptocurrency will need to stage another rally of over 27% to reach that level. The analyst has predicted that a rejection from this bearish OB zone could trigger a significant pullback in Bitcoin’s price, which is already weighed down by widespread volatility and market fear. On the bullish side, Fullpriceaction has forecasted that a clean break above the critical level could completely invalidate BTC’s bearish structure, potentially paving the way for a fresh bull run. With these possible moves on the horizon, the crypto expert is urging investors and traders to manage their risk carefully. He noted that the Bitcoin price has been in a severe bear market since its January highs near $98,000. The leading cryptocurrency has been grinding through a slow, prolonged consolidation phase, with its price largely trading between $64,000 and $76,000. Despite the bearish pressures restricting its price action, Fullpriceaction noted that Bitcoin was steadily building a solid base that eventually led to a breakout and a strong bullish impulse in April. Analyst Predicts BTC’s Crash To $70,000 In Days In a separate analysis on X, crypto market expert Alex Mason predicted that the Bitcoin price could crash to $70,000 within just a few days. Following this decline, the analyst expects the leading cryptocurrency to continue its downside trajectory. He projects a drop from its current price of around $77,000 to $73,000, then to $68,000 and $71,000, before ultimately plummeting toward $60,000. Related Reading: The 3 Bitcoin Rules That Tell When The Bear Market Is Fully Over Looking further ahead, Mason has placed BTC’s final market bottom somewhere around Autumn 2026, between September and December. His chart places this price floor around $30,000, representing a staggering decline of more than 61% from present levels. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Researchers at the privacy-centric blockchain startup say their multi-layer quantum defense will feature a soft fork to freeze and protect dormant BTC.
The billionaire investor said he sold most of his bitcoin after concluding the cryptocurrency failed to act as a hedge during recent geopolitical turmoil and dollar weakness.
Hyperliquid's HYPE is the outlier in crypto, rising 16.5% over the past 24 hours to a new record high.
Long-term holder supply has surged by more than 2 million coins to 16.3 million BTC during the current bear market.
The Bitcoin weekly chart has printed a red candlestick in a way that has quietly preceded some corrections. This candlestick appears in the numbers: in the open, the push, the rejection, and the close. That is exactly what happened last week. The candle that formed has now drawn the attention of an analyst who has catalogued its full history on Binance going back to 2017, and what he found is the possibility of another Bitcoin crash. Bitcoin’s Weekly Candle Flashes A Rare Bearish Setup As noted by a crypto analyst that goes by the name Sherlock on X, the latest Bitcoin weekly candle is one of the ugliest candlesticks that the asset can print. The analyst’s concern was not simply that Bitcoin closed the week in red. It was the way the candle formed and where it closed compared to the previous week. Related Reading: Pundit Predicts What Will Happen To XRP When Exchanges Run Out Of Supply Bitcoin’s weekly candle met three bearish conditions at the same time. It came in red immediately after a green weekly candle, its body engulfed the previous green candle, and it closed below the low of the previous week. This means buyers briefly tried to extend the rebound in the previous week but were overpowered before the weekly close. The week opened at $82,210. Buyers attempted a push higher, failed, and by the close Bitcoin was trading at $77,457, creating a red candle following a green week. That type of candle is important because it does not only show selling pressure. A green week had first given traders room to believe that Bitcoin was holding steady above $80,000, but the following candle erased that progress and closed beneath the prior low. This turned the previous week’s rally into a bull trap. What Does This Mean For Bitcoin? Interestingly, this exact setup has appeared 33 times on Binance since 2017, and the historical record is heavily tilted to the downside. Over the 12 weeks following each signal, Bitcoin traded at least 3% lower in 31 out of 33 cases, at least 5% lower in 28 cases, at least 8% lower in 25 cases, and at least 10% lower in 23 cases. Related Reading: XRP Analyst Reveals The Real Catalysts; ‘The Price Discovery Will Be Biblical’ The deeper part of the analysis is the average and median drawdown. The average drawdown after this weekly structure was 20.9%, while the median drawdown was 15.8%. Since Bitcoin closed last week at $77,457, a median version of the move would place the price on a further crash to $65,000, while an average version would drag the price close to $61,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $77,800 and bulls are trying to hold above $77,000. The current weekly candlestick is now green, but there is still enough time for things to change before the week’s close. The current weekly candle is playing out at a time when Bitcoin is under pressure from ETF outflows, and it is currently on a four-day outflow stretch, according to data from SoSoValue. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Millionaire businessman Kevin O’Leary has indicated that stablecoins are more valuable than Bitcoin because of their role in the global financial system. He also highlighted the “big opportunity” as one of the layer-1 networks could be the biggest beneficiary of traditional finance (TradFi) firms moving on-chain. Kevin O’Leary Praises Stablecoins Over Bitcoin In an X post, Kevin O’Leary shared a FOX interview in which he praised stablecoins over Bitcoin. He described BTC as a speculative asset whose price fluctuates due to its volatility. Meanwhile, the businessman called stablecoins an interesting product in financial services, noting that they are valuable because they are backed by U.S. Treasury bills. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Playbook To Know: Step 4 Says A Crash Is Coming, But Where’s The Bottom? O’Leary further remarked that the “beauty” of these stablecoins is that one can transfer them in seconds, not days. As such, he explained how these stablecoins top the current payment system, since one’s money can sometimes get lost when using FedWire or banking transfer systems. The businessman added that these transfer systems are also very expensive, which is another advantage stablecoins have over them, as one can transfer money for a fraction of the fee using stablecoins. As such, O’Leary suggested that stablecoins, rather than Bitcoin, could have a significant impact in the real world. However, he highlighted BTC’s edge, noting that it is commonly referred to as digital gold. It is worth noting that O’Leary is a Bitcoin bull despite his comment about BTC being a speculative asset. Last month, he revealed that he had consolidated his crypto holdings into just BTC and Ethereum after years of gaining exposure to other tokens. The businessman explained that he made this move to consolidate into just BTC and ETH after a regulatory shift and institutional analysis forced a reassessment. The Big Opportunity For Crypto Networks As part of his interview, Kevin O’Leary also mentioned that there is one big opportunity out there for crypto networks, with forecasts that the S&P 500 could adopt blockchain technology for contract analysis, inventory management, and logistics. He remarked that he doesn’t know which network will benefit most from this, as nobody knows which blockchain these companies will standardize on. Related Reading: Historical Data Shows How Many Days Are Left Until Bitcoin Price Hits New ATH Above $120,000 However, he noted that the winner among these crypto networks will emerge once at least one company in each of the economy’s 11 sectors chooses to standardize on that blockchain network. It is worth noting that Ethereum appears to be leading Bitcoin and other layer-1 networks in this regard at the moment. Ethereum is currently the leader in RWA tokenization, with the network holding 67% market share of all tokenized assets. RWA.xyz data shows that the network has a total RWA value of $18.6 billion, excluding stablecoins. Institutions have notably chosen Ethereum and other newer layer-1 networks over the Bitcoin network, which is lagging in RWA tokenization. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Deribit’s bitcoin open interest has overtaken BlackRock’s IBIT as traders brace for a showdown between $75K max pain and $80K call positioning.
Data shows the Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have witnessed capital inflows lag this year relative to 2025 and 2024. Bitcoin Spot ETFs Have Seen Cumulative Net Inflows Underperform In 2026 In a new post on X, analyst Maartunn has discussed how the cumulative inflows related to the US Bitcoin spot ETFs in 2026 so far have compared to past years. “Spot ETFs” here refer to investment vehicles that allow investors to gain indirect exposure to the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Bitcoin Fall Under $77,000 Triggers Spike In Social Media FUD The main benefit of the spot ETFs is that since they trade on traditional exchanges, users never have to interact with any blockchain infrastructure like digital asset exchanges or wallets at all. This advantage of theirs can make them a convenient mode of investment into cryptocurrencies for the more traditional investors like institutional entities. In the US, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the spot ETFs for Bitcoin back in January 2024, while Ethereum received its approval in July of the same year. Since then, these funds have attracted a significant amount of capital inflows, establishing themselves as one of the cornerstones of the sector. Below is a chart that shows how these inflows have compared across 2024, 2025, and 2026: As is visible in the graph, the US Bitcoin spot ETFs enjoyed the highest amount of net inflows during 2024, their first year in existence. This year mostly saw bullish or sideways price action, so interest in the funds was quite consistent. 2025 also observed the entry of a significant amount of capital into these funds, but the trajectory followed over the year wasn’t quite as straightforward. The price depression during the first few months meant that outflows took place, but the bull run that followed in the second half of the year garnered a huge amount of interest. The inflows during this period were so strong that 2025 was on pace to beat 2024. As the bull run fizzled out and a bearish transition occurred in the last quarter of the year, however, outflows once again followed. Related Reading: USDC Exchange Inflows Hit $350M—Traders Buying The Bitcoin Dip? 2026 so far has continued the bearish market trajectory, with the cryptocurrency being more than 11% down compared to the start of the year. As a result, inflows have predictably remained weak. The recent Bitcoin recovery did attract some interest, but even after these inflows, 2026 is behind where 2024 and 2025 were at the same point in time. It now remains to be seen whether the year will continue to lag in the coming months or if a market turnaround will appear. BTC Price Bitcoin dropped toward the $76,000 level earlier in the week, but the coin has since seen a minor rebound back to $77,600. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
BTC recently turned lower from the 200-day average, a barometer of long-term trends. CryptoQuant explains why.
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Bitcoin is lower by more than 4% over the past week, but has remained in a very tight range around $77,000 for the last three days.
The US-Iran war continues to linger with the two countries yet to reach a deal, and US President Donald Trump is threatening new strikes against Iran. Amid this, Iran has moved to launch a Bitcoin-backed service as it looks to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz. U.S.-Iran War In Focus Amid Trump’s Threat and New Bitcoin Service According to a Reuters report, US President Donald Trump has threatened that a new US attack on Iran could happen in the coming days if both sides fail to reach a deal. This came amid his revelation that he was close to ordering a strike against Iran earlier this week before postponing following pleas from leaders of the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. Notably, the US-Iran war is now approaching the three-month mark, with a peace deal yet to be reached. Related Reading: Donald Trump Abandons Meme Coins In Favor Of These Indirect Bitcoin Exposure Vehicles The major contention remains Iran’s nuclear program, which the country has so far refused to give. Meanwhile, Iran had sent a revised proposal earlier in the week, which the US rejected. The proposal focused on a long-term truce in the US-Iran war and the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The closure of this major oil chokepoint continues to impact the markets, with oil holding above $100 per barrel while Bitcoin and the broader crypto market decline. Meanwhile, amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has launched a Bitcoin-backed insurance service for shipping in this oil chokepoint. The service called “Hormuz Safe” aims to provide insurance policies for cargo moving through the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and surrounding waterways, with payments made in Bitcoin. Iran has adopted Bitcoin to evade US financial sanctions, which have heightened amid the US-Iran war. War Sending Inflation To Multi-Year Highs The US-Iran war is also driving US inflation to multi-year highs, which is putting downside pressure on Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. US PPI inflation rose by 6% year-over-year (YoY) in April, its highest increase since December 2022. At the same time, US CPI rose by 3.8% in April, its highest increase since May 2023. Related Reading: Why The $65,000 Region Is Important As Bitcoin Gears Up To Face Massive Resistance At These Levels With inflation rising due to the US-Iran war, the market continues to price in a rate hike over a cut as the Fed’s next likely move. Polymarket data shows a 28% chance of a Fed rate hike this year. Meanwhile, further data from Polymarket shows a 70% chance that the Fed will make zero rate cuts this year amid inflation concerns. A potential rate hike is bearish for Bitcoin, as it could constrain liquidity with higher interest rates. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $77,000, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Realized cap stabilization, historically elevated RHODL readings and deeply negative funding rates all point toward a potential cycle low for bitcoin forming earlier this year.
Margin longs on Bitfinex have climbed to a two-and-a-half year high as bitcoin struggles below key technical resistance near $78,000.
Wintermute said Bitcoin’s latest rally has failed its first major macro test, arguing that the move was driven more by leverage and short covering than by durable spot demand. In its May 18 market update, the trading firm pointed to hot inflation, rising Treasury yields, ETF outflows and renewed rate-hike pricing as the backdrop behind a sharp reversal across digital assets. “Last week we said we’d find out fast what kind of rally this was. We found out,” Wintermute wrote. “BTC failed at the 200-day on the first real macro shock, which tells you it was the squeeze driving it all along.” The firm’s update framed the week as a macro-led repricing. April CPI came in at 3.8% year over year, above the 3.7% consensus estimate, while core CPI rose 0.4% month over month. Wintermute said the inflation shock has become harder for markets to dismiss, noting that the prolonged energy shock is now moving into core inflation and that real wages turned negative for the first time in three years. Related Reading: Bitcoin Hits ‘Wall Of Resistance,’ CryptoQuant Research Head Warns Rates responded quickly. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 28 basis points on the week to 4.58%, its highest level since September 2025, while fed funds futures erased all expected cuts for 2026 and began pricing a 44% chance of a rate hike by December, up from 22.5% a week earlier. Wintermute said the market narrative shifted from “when do they cut” to “do they hike” in only five trading days. That repricing hit long-duration assets. Wintermute said 20-year-plus Treasuries fell 2.8%, while gold dropped 3.8% despite the geopolitical backdrop. Brent crude rose 8.6%, leaving the firm to conclude that “the only things that worked were the things causing the problem.” Why $75,000 Bitcoin Is The Line In The Sand Bitcoin briefly moved above $82,000 after the CLARITY Act vote, but then reversed sharply and closed Friday near $78,000, down 5.7% for the week. A weekend slide toward $77,000 triggered $657 million in liquidations, including $584 million from long positions. Ethereum underperformed even more, falling 10.2% on the week. Wintermute said ETH continued to weaken across both spot and derivatives markets, with ETH/BTC pressing 0.0275, funding softer and relative implied volatility elevated. The firm described ETH as the “wrong asset for this macro.” ETF flows also turned against the market. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $1 billion of outflows for the week, ending six consecutive weeks of inflows, while ETH ETFs saw $255 million leave the products. Wintermute cited Glassnode data showing institutions were “selling into strength,” with the seven-day moving average of net flows at negative $88 million per day, the weakest level since mid-February. “When leverage is the marginal buyer, the unwind is fast,” Wintermute wrote. Related Reading: Strategy Wants 1,000,000 Bitcoin Treasury And This Is How They Plan To Get To That Number The firm said Bitcoin remains below its 200-day moving average near $82,200 after being rejected five times this month. The immediate support zone is $76,000 to $78,000, according to the update, while a break of $75,000 could open the way toward $70,000 to $72,000. Wintermute did not dismiss the broader structural case for Bitcoin. It noted that exchange reserves remain near multi-year lows, long-term holders are still accumulating, and the CLARITY Act continues to move forward after clearing the Senate banking committee. The firm also said tokenized Treasuries reached $15 billion onchain, describing the segment as an area of continued growth. Still, Wintermute argued that short-term flows matter more than the structural story for now. “The flow data shows institutions used the rally to take profit rather than add, and in the short term that matters more than the structural story,” the firm wrote. The next test, according to the update, is whether Bitcoin can hold the $76,000 to $78,000 area through Nvidia earnings on Wednesday, May 20. A hold would “rebuild some confidence,” Wintermute said, but a break below $75,000 with funding resetting and ETF flows negative could bring the low $70,000s back into view quickly. At press time, BTC traded at $77,297. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Data shows sentiment around Bitcoin among social media users has turned negative following the recent decline in the cryptocurrency’s price. Bitcoin Positive/Negative Sentiment Has Dropped Recently In a new post on X, analytics firm Santiment has discussed the latest trend in the Positive/Negative Sentiment for Bitcoin. This metric tells us whether the majority of social media comments aimed at a given asset are positive or negative. Related Reading: Solana Fails Channel Breakout—$78 Support The Next Destination? The indicator works by putting posts/messages/threads containing mentions of the cryptocurrency on the major social media platforms through a machine-learning model to separate between bullish and bearish comments. It then counts up the number of posts falling in each category and takes their ratio to determine the net situation. Now, here is the chart shared by Santiment that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Positive/Negative Sentiment over the past month: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Positive/Negative Sentiment shot up into the “FOMO” zone earlier as the cryptocurrency’s recovery surge occurred. This isn’t anything unusual as positive price action tends to spark optimism among traders. The opposite trend has played out as the asset has gone through its latest pullback. The Positive/Negative Sentiment has now dropped to a value of 0.94, which suggests bearish comments are slightly dominating on social media platforms. This is the lowest that the metric has been since April 21st. Historically, digital asset markets have often tended to go against the crowd opinion, so this switch to a bearish sentiment could actually turn out to be a positive sign for Bitcoin. “As small traders sell off their coins as a reaction to this mild downswing, probabilities of a rebound are heightened while most people expect a further drop,” explained the analytics firm. Though, it’s visible in the chart that the Positive/Negative Sentiment isn’t yet inside the “FUD” zone where a bearish mentality becomes pronounced enough for rebounds to become probable. Related Reading: Bitcoin Recovery Above Key Cost Basis Level Fails As BTC Falls Under $77,000 In some other news, the Bitcoin whales have seen their wallet count rise over the past year, as Santiment has highlighted in another X post. From the chart, it’s apparent that there are now 20,229 wallets holdings at least 100 BTC (worth about $7.64 million). Compared to a year ago, this figure represents an increase of 11.2%. The analytics firm noted: This is a significant long-term trend because wallets of at least this size (currently ~$7.7M or more) are often associated with whales, major investors, institutions, and highly capitalized long-term holders. BTC Price Bitcoin has declined to the $76,400 level following its pullback of more than 5% over the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin climbed to about $77,200, while XRP, ether and solana also gained as Treasury yields and oil fell.
BTC's implied volatility remains low despite the recent price selloff. Options specialist prefers a long straddle strategy in this scenario.
Bitcoin (BTC) has slipped after failing to clear a major ceiling around the $83,000 area, with the flagship cryptocurrency down nearly 5% over the past week. As of Tuesday evening, BTC was changing hands at roughly $76,750. Even with the pullback, market analyst Ali Martinez believes the current price action still leaves room for a rebound toward $94,850. Bitcoin Could Drop Toward $54,270 In a Tuesday social media post on X (previously Twitter), Martinez pointed to Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) pricing bands, saying a move to $94,850 would represent about a 23.5% increase from current levels. However, he cautioned that this upside path depends on Bitcoin holding above a specific support level at $72,960. In his view, losing that threshold would shift the outlook and open the door to a deeper drawdown. Related Reading: Zcash, Bitcoin, And Solana—Catalysts Ahead That Could Fuel Another Upswing Before May Ends If $72,960 is broken, Martinez warned that BTC could be pulled toward the realized price near $54,270. That scenario would imply an additional 29% retracement from present prices. With that in mind, the analyst framed the $72,960 level as a key line in the sand for determining whether Bitcoin’s consolidation turns into the next leg up or extends into a more pronounced correction. Adding to the bullish outlook, Martinez also said derivatives traders are positioning as if another advance is likely. He noted that Bitcoin funding rates have climbed to 0.4%, the highest level seen in more than two months. Key Support And Resistance Walls To Watch When Bitcoin funding rates rise to that extent, it typically signals that the derivatives market is being driven by aggressive long positioning, with market participants paying a premium to keep long exposure. According to Martinez, this kind of demand can sometimes lead to quick liquidations if the market snaps downward and forces late buyers out, but it also reflects a broader bias that remains tilted toward expansion. Related Reading: Goldman Sachs Rebalances Crypto Exposure: XRP, SOL Out, ETH Down 70%, Hyperliquid In In another social media post issued on Monday, the analyst also highlighted additional levels to watch ahead tied to the cryptocurrency’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) indicator. Martinez identified new resistance levels at $78,258 and $84,569. On the support side, he pointed to $75,733 and $66,898. Together with the earlier $72,960 support marker, these zones form the set of key reference points Martinez said could shape whether Bitcoin pushes higher toward $94,850 or slides toward the realized price area. Featured image created with OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows USDC exchange inflows have witnessed a spike after the latest Bitcoin pullback, a potential sign that traders are looking to buy the dip. USDC Exchange Inflows Have Spiked To $350 Million As pointed out by on-chain analyst Maartunn in an X post, a notable amount of USDC has hit exchanges recently. The indicator of interest here is the “Exchange Inflow,” which tracks the total number of tokens of a given asset that investors are transferring to wallets connected to centralized exchanges. Related Reading: Solana Fails Channel Breakout—$78 Support The Next Destination? When the value of the metric is high, it means holders are depositing a large amount of the cryptocurrency to these platforms. Generally, investors transfer to exchanges when they want to trade away their tokens, so this kind of trend can be a sign of increased interest in swapping the asset. For volatile cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, this can naturally be a bearish signal for the price. When it comes to stablecoins, however, the consequences naturally change. Stablecoins are, by nature, ‘stable’ in value around whatever fiat currency that they are pegged to. As such, trading them away doesn’t cause their price to go down. That said, Stablecoin exchange deposits affect the sector in another way. Usually, investors store their capital in the form of these safe-havens when they want to avoid the volatility associated with other digital assets. Once they feel that the time is right to invest back into BTC and others, they transfer their stables to exchanges. This deployment of capital previously sitting on the sidelines can naturally act as a boost for the volatile side of the market. As the chart shared by Maartunn shows, the Exchange Inflow has spiked for USDC recently, a potential sign that this deployment may be in action right now. These inflows of the stablecoin have arrived after a pullback in the Bitcoin price to levels under $77,000. Considering the timing, the deposits could correspond to dip-buying behavior. In total, this spike saw $350 million in USDC enter exchanges. This isn’t an especially massive amount, but could still help the market turn around if it’s only the start of the inflows. It only remains to be seen, though, how investor behavior will develop in the coming days. Related Reading: Bitcoin Recovery Above Key Cost Basis Level Fails As BTC Falls Under $77,000 In related news, the market cap of the stablecoins as a whole is currently sitting around an all-time high (ATH), according to data from DefiLlama. As displayed in the above graph, the stablecoin market cap has been following a gradual uptrend recently, a sign that this part of the digital asset sector has been seeing increased interest from investors. After the latest continuation to the upward trajectory, the metric has hit a value of $323.1 billion. Bitcoin Price Bitcoin has dropped to the $76,800 mark following its retrace over the last few days. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s latest rally has run into a major technical and on-chain resistance zone, with CryptoQuant research head Julio Moreno warning that several indicators now point to elevated correction risk after a sharp rebound from April lows. Moreno said CryptoQuant had been flagging a potential pullback for weeks, citing high unrealized profits, a spike in profit-taking across spot and futures markets, slowing US spot demand, and resistance from both technical and on-chain price levels. The firm’s latest analysis frames Bitcoin’s move toward the 200-day moving average as a critical test for whether the rally has durable support or resembles a bear-market rebound running out of momentum. Why The Bitcoin Correction Risk Is Rising “Bitcoin has reached a major bear market resistance level, the 200-day moving average at $82.4K, following a 37% price rally from the April lows. The parallel with March 2022 is direct: in that cycle, Bitcoin also rallied 43% before hitting the 200-day MA, after which the price resumed its downward trend. The current setup raises the question of whether history repeats,” CryptoQuant wrote in its May 13 report, titled “Wall of Resistance: Bitcoin Tests the 200-Day MA as Profit-Taking and Weak US Demand Cap the Rally.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply Shock? Binance Flags 500,000 BTC Leaving Exchange The comparison with March 2022 is central to the firm’s caution. In CryptoQuant’s reading, the 200-day moving average is not just a technical line on the chart, but a zone where prior bear-market rallies have failed when supported by weak demand and heavy profit-taking. Bitcoin’s 37% move from April lows has brought the market back to that same kind of inflection point. A key concern is the rise in unrealized profits among traders. CryptoQuant said traders’ unrealized profit margins reached 17.7% on May 5, the highest level since June 2025. That matters because holders with sizable paper gains often become more willing to sell into strength, especially when a rally approaches a widely watched resistance level. The firm said those margin levels mirror the conditions seen in March 2022, when Bitcoin last tested the 200-day moving average before resuming its broader decline. The implication is not that the market must repeat that outcome, but that the current setup carries a similar distribution risk if demand does not strengthen. Realized profit data suggests that some selling has already begun. CryptoQuant said daily realized profits surged to 14.6K BTC on May 4, the highest level since December 10, 2025. According to the report, spikes of that scale during bear-market rallies have historically preceded local tops, as newly profitable short-term holders accelerate selling into price strength. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Meltdown: What’s Behind The Drop To $76,000, And What’s Next The demand side of the market also remains a weak point in CryptoQuant’s assessment. The Coinbase Bitcoin Price Premium turned negative in late April and stayed below zero as Bitcoin approached $80,000, which the firm interpreted as a sign of decelerating US investor demand. CryptoQuant argued that sustained positive Coinbase premium has historically been a prerequisite for more durable Bitcoin rallies, and that its absence suggests the current move lacks broad-based US institutional conviction. Spot apparent demand has improved, but remains negative. The contraction narrowed from minus 91K BTC in April to minus 11K BTC, according to the report. CryptoQuant said that indicates conditions have become less severe, but not strong enough to confirm sustained spot accumulation. The firm also noted that demand growth appears concentrated more in speculative perpetual futures positioning than in spot buying. If a correction develops, CryptoQuant identified the main on-chain support level near $70,000, represented by the Traders’ On-chain Realized Price. The firm said this level has historically acted as a resistance-turned-support band in bear markets because it reflects the average cost basis of short-term traders. At press time, BTC traded at $76,961. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
The research firm said bitcoin traders remain unusually defensive, reducing the risk of the kind of leverage-driven collapse seen in prior downturns.
Bitcoin has lost the $80,000 level as selling pressure and market uncertainty combine to test the resilience of a recovery that had been building since the April lows. The breakdown is significant, and XWIN Research Japan has published a structural analysis that places the current weakness in a context that goes considerably deeper than a technical support level failing to hold. Related Reading: Massive HYPE Accumulation Continues: Whale-Linked Wallet Adds $90M In Weeks The analysis begins with a premise that reframes how the entire 2026 Bitcoin market should be understood. This cycle is structurally different from the ones that preceded it. ETFs, corporate treasury allocations, interest rate dynamics, regulatory development, and dollar liquidity conditions now influence Bitcoin’s price behavior in ways that did not exist during the 2020 to 2021 advance. The asset has institutionalized — but the on-chain data tells a more complicated story about what is actually driving day-to-day price movements. The Coinbase Premium Index is where the structural concern becomes most visible. The metric measures the price gap between Coinbase — the primary venue for US institutional spot buying — and offshore exchanges like Binance. During the 2020 to 2021 bull market, that premium stayed predominantly positive, reflecting sustained American institutional demand flowing into the spot market through the most regulated and most scrutinized venue available. In 2026, that premium has repeatedly fallen into negative territory — a reading that XWIN Research Japan identifies as the gap between the narrative of institutional adoption and the reality of where actual spot demand currently stands. Two Realities And The Question That Defines What Comes Next The XWIN Research Japan analysis holds two contradictory truths simultaneously and refuses to resolve them prematurely. The long-term picture remains structurally constructive. Exchange reserves have declined to approximately 2.68 million BTC — coins leaving exchanges and moving into long-term holding, ETF custody, and low-liquidity storage at a sustained pace. Less Bitcoin available on exchanges means less immediate sell-side supply, and the directional trend of that reduction supports the supply squeeze argument that underpins the long-term bullish case. Bitcoin Exchange Netflow | Source: CryptoQuant The short-term picture tells a different story. Open Interest has surged since April 2026 while funding rates remain unstable — the signature of a market where leverage-driven futures activity is dominating price discovery rather than genuine spot accumulation. Recent price movements, including the recovery from the April lows and the current breakdown below $80,000, reflect derivatives positioning more than the organic spot demand that characterized Bitcoin’s most durable advances. The Exchange Stablecoin Ratio adds the missing piece. The decline in stablecoin waiting capital — the dry powder sitting on exchanges ready to deploy into spot purchases — confirms that the aggressive USDT and USDC inflows that fueled the 2021 advance have not returned at a comparable scale. The question XWIN Research Japan identifies as the defining one for this cycle follows directly from those three signals. Bitcoin has built the institutional infrastructure — ETFs, corporate treasuries, regulatory frameworks — that the previous cycle lacked entirely. What has not yet been built is the sustained spot demand that converts institutional infrastructure into a durable bull market. Whether that demand arrives, and when, is what the next phase of price action will begin to answer. Related Reading: Ethereum Whales Flood Binance With 225,000 ETH In Largest Inflow Since 2022 Bitcoin Tests Critical Support As Recovery Momentum Continues To Fade Bitcoin is trading near $76,900 after extending its rejection from the $81,000-$82,000 resistance zone, a region that continues to cap every recovery attempt since April. The daily chart shows BTC now slipping back below the 100-day moving average while remaining firmly trapped beneath the descending 200-day moving average, reinforcing the broader bearish structure still dominating the market. Bitcoin Price is Testing Critical Demand Level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView The recovery from the February capitulation low near $63,000 initially showed constructive momentum, with Bitcoin reclaiming the $74,000 support region and printing a sequence of higher highs through April and early May. However, bullish momentum weakened significantly once the price approached long-term resistance, where repeated failed breakouts created a lower-high formation near local tops. Related Reading: XRP Leverage Expansion Raises Risks Near $1.50 Resistance – A Big Move May Follow Importantly, Bitcoin is now approaching the highlighted demand zone between $72,000 and $74,000, an area that previously acted as the foundation for the broader rebound. Holding this region could allow BTC to stabilize and attempt another recovery phase. However, a decisive breakdown below support would likely expose the market to a deeper retracement toward the broader accumulation range near $64,000-$65,000. Volume during the latest decline remains elevated relative to recent consolidation phases, suggesting active selling pressure continues driving price action. Combined with weakening Coinbase Premium readings and unstable futures positioning, the chart reflects a market still struggling to transition into a sustainable spot-driven bullish trend. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Strategy’s Bitcoin playbook is no longer just about buying dips. The company has turned its balance sheet into a capital machine built around one main objective of increasing the amount of Bitcoin it controls without weakening the amount of Bitcoin attached to each share. Recent filings by the company now show that it is planning to repurchase $1.5 billion principal amount of 2029 convertible notes. Strategy Is Getting Closer To 1,000,000 Bitcoin Strategy’s latest reported Bitcoin reserve shows how far the company’s accumulation strategy has come. The firm’s Bitcoin purchase page lists 843,738 BTC, acquired at an average cost of $75,700 per Bitcoin. Related Reading: Strategy Overtakes BlackRock’s Bitcoin Holdings, But Is Saylor Done Buying? This means Strategy now controls about 4.02% of Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million supply. The 1,000,000 BTC threshold would raise that share to about 4.76%, making Strategy one of the most important single holders in the Bitcoin market. At the current level, the company does not need to double its holdings. It needs to add about 18.5% more Bitcoin to cross the 1,000,000 BTC line. The pace of buying has also increased in 2026. Strategy said it held 818,334 BTC as of May 3, 2026, representing 22% growth year-to-date, and said it had raised $11.68 billion year-to-date at that point. Less than three weeks later, the company has bought another $2 billion worth of Bitcoin, lifting its holdings to 843,738 BTC. Strategy Repurchasing Convertible Notes Strategy’s path to acquiring 1,000,000 BTC depends on its ability to keep raising capital without damaging the value of its Bitcoin per share. Strategy sells financial instruments like convertible notes to investors who want exposure to its Bitcoin structure, then uses the proceeds to buy more Bitcoin. Related Reading: Analyst Says Avoid Bitcoin At All Costs; Here’s What To Do Instead As 50% Crash Looms If the Bitcoin added is worth more per share than the dilution or cost created by the financing, the company can report a positive Bitcoin yield. At the time of writing, Strategy has a Bitcoin year-to-date yield of 12.6%. The recent plan to repurchase part of the 2029 convertible notes also fits into this larger strategy. Strategy recently revealed that it agreed to repurchase a $1.50 billion principal amount of its 0% convertible senior notes due 2029 for an estimated cash price of about $1.38 billion. The repurchased notes would be cancelled, leaving about $1.50 billion of the 2029 notes outstanding. This matters because convertible notes can become future shares. Strategy reduces the possibility that those notes will eventually increase the number of shares by repurchasing and canceling a portion of that tranche. That can help protect Bitcoin per share, which is central to the company’s long-term treasury. Strategy’s most recent BTC purchase was announced less than 24 hours ago, with the company adding 24,869 BTC for a total cost of $2.014 billion. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Crypto markets have turned lower in morning U.S. trade on Tuesday as the idea of coming rate hikes takes a toll on risk assets.
The bank said ether and the broader altcoin market continue to trail bitcoin as weak network activity, sluggish DeFi growth and limited real-world adoption weigh on investor demand.
Crypto analyst Cyclop has provided insights into when the Bitcoin price could hit a new all-time high (ATH) above $120,000. This came as the analyst alluded to historical data indicating that BTC could bottom in this bear cycle by the last quarter of this year. Analyst Reveals When Bitcoin Price Will Hit New ATH Based On Historical Data In an X post, Cyclop alluded to historical BTC cycles to show when the Bitcoin price will hit a new all-time high. He noted that between 2015 and 2017, BTC enjoyed a bull run for 1,065 days, while between 2017 and 2018, it took 365 days for BTC to bottom in the bear market. Similarly, BTC enjoyed another bull run lasting 1,065 days between 2018 and 2021 before entering a bear market that lasted 365 days. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Market Confirmation Will Be Completed Once This Level Is Reclaimed, Analyst Furthermore, between 2022 and 2025, the Bitcoin price experienced another bull run lasting 1,065 days, with BTC rallying to an ATH of 126,000. The leading crypto then topped in October 2025 and has since been in a bear market. Based on this historical data, BTC may be on course to be in this bear market until October 5, which will complete the 365-day cycle. The analyst’s accompanying chart showed that the Bitcoin price could rally to between $140,000 and $150,000 in the next bull run before the leading crypto tops in 2030 and enters another bear market. Meanwhile, this historical data suggests that the Bitcoin bottom isn’t in, despite BTC’s recent rally above $80,000. Bitcoin is once again in a downtrend amid inflation concerns and fears that the U.S.-Iran war could begin soon following stalled peace talks. BTC Local Top Is In Crypto analyst Colin stated that the local top is in for the Bitcoin price, with BTC now eyeing new lows. He noted how the current price action is bearish as the leading crypto rejected the upper channel of a trend line, the 200-moving average, and the underside of the trend line. This underside has been respected as both resistance and support many times, but has now broken to the downside. Related Reading: Analyst Says Don’t Buy Bitcoin Until This Happens In another X post, Colin echoed Cyclop’s sentiments, noting that on a purely time basis, it is extremely unlikely that the BTC borrow was in just after four months, since the Bitcoin price topped last October. The analyst had previously stated that BTC could bottom around $40,000 based on historical data, as the lowest decline the crypto asset has ever suffered in a bear market is 77%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has only seen a 53% drop to the February 2026 low of $60,000. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $76,600, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com