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Crypto analyst Adez has revealed what most traders are missing following the Bitcoin price rally to $116,000 earlier this week. The analyst suggested there is no reason to be bullish right now, as BTC is likely to decline further before breaking out to the upside.  What Traders Are Missing From The Bitcoin Price Action In an X post, Adez noted that the Bitcoin price pumped from around $111,000 to $115,500 and that everyone thinks a breakout is happening. However, the analyst opined that the rally was just a trap. He explained that BTC actually swept the Value Area High at $114,600, but the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) barely moved.  Related Reading: 100% Of Bitcoin Bull Market Peak Indicators Remain Untouched, Is There Still Room To Run? Adez further revealed that the open interest was completely flat, indicating that zero money came in for the move on Binance. The funding rate was also still at 0.01%, which is “dead neutral,” and nobody was excited about the Bitcoin price rally. In other words, he explained that the breakout happened with no institutional support, no new capital, and no retail FOMO, which is why the analyst believes the move was just a liquidity grab.  As to what happens next, Adez stated that this is a classic pattern after sweeping resistance with weak conviction, which leads to a sharp reversal. He urged investors and traders to watch the next few H4 candles to see if the Bitcoin price rejects back below $114,600, forms a lower low, and the CVD starts dropping.  For a break of structure to be confirmed, the Bitcoin price needs to break below the H1 at 114,839 and then the H4 at 113,560. Once that happens, Adez predicts that there is an 85% probability that BTC will head to the real support between $104,000 and $106,000 within seven to ten days. Notably, BTC has broken these two levels and may now be at risk of dropping to these support levels as the analyst has predicted.  Why This Price Action Is Plausible Adez explained that this Bitcoin price action makes sense because November is historically 60% bullish and that Q4 has averaged 65% wins. However, he noted that these rallies didn’t start from thin air at $115,000. Instead, they start from value zones where institutions can accumulate before BTC rallies.  Related Reading: Here’s How High The Bitcoin Price Would Be If It Catches Up With The Stock Market The analyst highlighted $109,000 as the point of control, while between $104,000 and $106,000 is the Value Area Low, where there are also billions in buy orders. He added that the current Bitcoin price action is floating above real support, which is exactly where smart money dumps before the real move begins.  As such, Adez expects retail to buy the breakout at $115,000 and get stopped out on the reversal. Then, they miss the real entry between $104,000 and $106,000. On the other hand, Smart Money sells into this pump, waits for the sweep down, then loads up at between $104,000 and $106,000 and rides the Bitcoin price rally to above $130,000.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $113,000, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The second part of the year has seen a notable surge in the US stock market, while Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency market has faced its share of uncertainty and significant corrections.  With the Nasdaq recently surpassing the 26,000 mark, leading analysts are now suggesting that this milestone could be a clear indicator for Bitcoin to finish the year at new highs. What Historical Patterns Indicate According to experts at The Bull Theory, the pattern observed with the Nasdaq reaching all-time highs typically suggests a flow of liquidity, an increased risk appetite, and a shift of capital into growth assets. As this phase develops, it often sets the stage for Bitcoin’s next significant movement. Related Reading: China Intensifies Crypto Crackdown With Latest Warning Against Stablecoins Data compiled by the analysts supports this assertion. Historically, in the first 30 days following a Nasdaq all-time high, Bitcoin has averaged a gain of approximately 7%. This return tends to grow, reaching about 14% within 60 days and climbing to an average of 25% by the 90-day mark.  This pattern is not merely coincidental; it reflects a capital rotation where liquidity does not disappear but instead shifts from traditional markets into higher-risk assets like Bitcoin.  The current situation appears to follow a similar trajectory. The Nasdaq’s rise to 26,000 indicates a wave of liquidity building beneath the surface. With rate cuts beginning and quantitative tightening coming to an end, global capital is once again seeking yield.  This scenario mirrors the conditions that contributed to Bitcoin’s significant breakouts in previous years, particularly in 2017, 2020, and 2023. As such, the analysts note that the next four to five months may represent an acceleration phase for Bitcoin, coinciding with a potential pause in equities, which could lead to crypto becoming the primary outlet for liquidity.  Bitcoin Poised For Breakout Similar To 2020-2021 Cycle Analysts like Ash Crypto also noted on social media that the BTC/NASDAQ weekly chart is revealing a repeating pattern reminiscent of the 2020-2021 cycle, during which Bitcoin significantly outperformed traditional tech stocks. In both cycles, the October to March timeframe has historically prompted major upward movements.  Related Reading: The Next Chapter For Crypto: Legislative Clarity, Institutional Support Set Stage For Major Growth After a period of consolidation within a rising wedge, the BTC/NASDAQ pair appears poised for another breakout. Should this pattern repeat, Bitcoin may see substantial gains compared to the Nasdaq in the fourth quarter and into early 2026, Ash Crypto noted.  Notably, this sets the stage for a major rally that could see Bitcoin prices surpassing current records of over $126,000. However, the market is still characterized by increased volatility, and there is no clear path ahead for BTC. The leading cryptocurrency is trading at $113,350 after a 2% correction in Tuesday’s trading session, following an initial surge above $115,000. This puts BTC 6.5% below record highs.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has revealed a Bitcoin price range that defines the current battleground between recent buyers and profit-takers. Bitcoin Cost Basis Distribution Shows Where Resistance & Support Are Strongest In a new post on X, Glassnode has talked about where support and resistance levels lie for Bitcoin based on the Cost Basis Distribution (CBD). This indicator basically tells us about the total amount of supply that last changed hands at the various price levels that the cryptocurrency has visited in its history. Related Reading: Solana Eyes $210 Before Its Next Major Move—Uptrend Or Fakeout Ahead? Below is the chart shared by the analytics firm that shows the trend in this metric over the last few months. As is visible in the graph, the CBD highlights two levels for holding a dense amount of the cryptocurrency’s supply (shaded in red). The lower of these levels is situated near $111,000. A large chunk of buying at this mark occurred during the recent bearish phase in the asset. The other level is located around $117,000, made up of investors who bought during the price rally to the all-time high (ATH). Naturally, these buyers would be underwater right now, while those who purchased at $111,000 would be in profit. Generally, holders are sensitive to retests of their cost basis and can show some kind of reaction during one. Since these two levels host the cost basis of a significant amount of investors, it’s possible that when BTC will revisit them, some panic selling or buying will crop up. Which behavior would be dominant usually comes down to the market mood and the direction of the retest. When the retest occurs from above, investors may choose to buy more, believing the same cost basis level would result in profits again in the future. Similarly, holders who were in loss prior to the retest can react by selling, fearing that the asset will drop again in the future. Considering these effects, the $111,000 may be considered a key support cushion for Bitcoin, while $117,000 a resistance barrier. “This range defines the current battleground between recent buyers and profit-takers,” noted Glassnode. Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Returns To Neutral As BTC Breaks $115,000 It now remains to be seen which level BTC will visit next and how its retest will go. “A break in either direction could set the tone for the next major move,” explained the analytics firm. In some other news, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) Oscillator has been sitting at cycle lows recently, as Glassnode has pointed out in another X post. This oscillator is based on the SSR, which compares the Bitcoin circulating supply against the supply of the stablecoins. The SSR Oscillator is sitting at a low level at the moment, which indicates that the BTC supply is low compared to stablecoin liquidity. “Historically, such periods precede stronger bid-side support when market confidence returns,” said the analytics firm. BTC Price Bitcoin saw a retrace toward $113,500 earlier, but the coin has been quick to bounce back as its price has returned to $115,400. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is showing early signs of strength as it attempts to reclaim the $115,000 level. After weeks of mixed sentiment and heavy selling pressure, momentum appears to be turning slightly bullish. The recent weekly close above $114,500 has confirmed a reclaim of the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price, a key on-chain threshold currently sitting near $113,000. This metric represents the average cost basis of recent market participants and often serves as a pivotal line separating bullish from bearish sentiment. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Profit Rises To 83.6% – Market Momentum Building Again Top analyst Darkfost shared that this reclaim is an encouraging signal, reflecting renewed buyer confidence after a volatile October. However, he also cautioned that Bitcoin’s position must still be monitored closely. A rejection at current levels could lead to a renewed correction phase, mirroring the pattern seen in 2024, when BTC faced multiple failed attempts before regaining upward momentum. For now, the market sits at a delicate crossroads — consolidating below resistance while holding critical on-chain support. If Bitcoin can sustain this structure and push convincingly above $115K, analysts believe it could open the door for a broader bullish continuation and potentially a retest of the $120K region in the weeks ahead. Bitcoin Holds Above Key On-Chain Level According to top analyst Darkfost, Bitcoin’s reclaim of the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price around $113,000 could mark a crucial turning point for market structure. He notes that during the 2024 correction, BTC faced four failed attempts to break above this same metric. Each rejection was driven by short-term holders selling at their break-even points — a typical psychological reaction that delays trend reversals. Once Bitcoin finally sustained above the STH Realized Price, however, the market quickly regained momentum and entered a new expansion phase. This time, the dynamic appears similar. If Bitcoin successfully consolidates above this zone, it could pave the way for a strong bullish impulse and potentially a new all-time high (ATH) in the short term. The STH Realized Price acts as a measure of conviction among recent investors; holding above it suggests growing confidence and a shift from capitulation to accumulation. Darkfost also highlights another critical observation: throughout the current bull cycle, Bitcoin has never fallen below the yearly STH Realized Price. Each time the price neared that level, a rebound followed — reaffirming it as a structural support for the broader trend. Still, caution remains essential. A breakdown below the $94,000 mark — the current yearly STH Realized Price — would likely signal a deeper market shift. Such a move could mark the transition from a mid-cycle correction into a more prolonged bearish phase. For now, the data suggests resilience, not weakness. As long as BTC remains above its short-term realized threshold, the broader uptrend remains intact — with potential for the next major rally if buying pressure continues to build above $115K. Related Reading: Digital Yen Goes Live: JPYC EX Integrates Traditional Finance With DeFi BTC Bulls Defend Key Support While Momentum Cools Bitcoin is currently trading around $114,360, consolidating after a brief rally that tested resistance near $115,800–$117,500. The chart shows that BTC successfully reclaimed the 200-period moving average (red line) on the 4-hour timeframe, a level that had acted as resistance throughout mid-October. This reclaim is an encouraging short-term signal, but momentum appears to be slowing as traders await the next catalyst. The $113,000–$114,000 range now serves as immediate support — aligning with the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price, a key on-chain level that reflects the cost basis of recent buyers. Holding this zone could allow bulls to consolidate strength before another attempt at breaking above $117,500, the main horizontal resistance that capped previous rallies. Related Reading: Ethereum OG Drives $500M Liquidity Flow Into ConcreteXYZ & Stable Vaults – Details On the downside, failure to maintain above the 200-MA could trigger a retest of $111,000, where the 100-MA (green line) provides secondary support. Trading volume remains subdued, reflecting investor caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision later this week. Bitcoin remains in a constructive phase as long as it holds above $113K. Sustained consolidation above this level would reinforce bullish structure — while a decisive break above $117,500 could open the path toward $120,000+ in the short term. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

A widely shared seasonality snapshot is making the rounds ahead of month-end: a Coinglass heat map of Bitcoin’s monthly returns, reposted by trader Daan Crypto Trades. The table spans 2013–2025 and shows November as the statistical outlier in Bitcoin’s calendar—both for eye-popping gains and for sharp drawdowns in certain years. Bitcoin November Preview “November is Bitcoin’s best month based on historical performance. By far,” Daan wrote on X, pointing to an average November change of +46.02% across the dataset. That figure is visibly distorted by November 2013’s +449.35% surge, the single largest monthly move on the board. He added: “The average gain over all these months is +46.02%. But this is heavily skewed by a single monthly gain in November 2013. Bitcoin went up +449.35%!! that month.” The raw counts back up the reputation without the hyperbole. Out of the 12 Novembers listed (2013–2024), 8 finished green—2013 (+449.35%), 2014 (+12.82%), 2015 (+19.27%), 2016 (+5.42%), 2017 (+53.48%), 2020 (+42.95%), 2023 (+8.81%), and 2024 (+37.29%)—while 4 were negative—2018 (-36.57%), 2019 (-17.27%), 2021 (-7.11%), and 2022 (-16.23%). Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Returns To Neutral As BTC Breaks $115,000 The median November change sits at +10.82%, a more conservative central tendency that dampens the 2013 effect. Excluding 2013 entirely, the simple average for November drops to roughly +9.35% across the remaining 11 years, underscoring how one month can skew mean-based seasonality. Context from the broader table matters. November’s average is the highest of any month on Coinglass’s grid, ahead of October’s +20.30% average, while December shows a far more mixed profile with a +4.75% average but a -3.22% median—an imbalance consistent with outlier-driven months. September, long maligned by traders, retains a negative average (-3.08%) over the full period. The 2024 row itself captures the push-and-pull of this cycle’s narrative: double-digit gains in February, March, May, October, and November, offset by meaningful drawdowns in April, June, and August, and a negative December print to close the year (-2.85%). Lessons From Prior Cycles Daan’s framing extends beyond simple seasonality. “November & December is when the 2013, 2017 & 2021 cycles topped out. It’s also where the 2018 & 2022 cycles bottomed out,” he noted. That observation lines up with the historical inflection points most market participants remember: the late-2013 mania and subsequent crash, the December 2017 peak, the November 2021 all-time high, and the December 2018 and November 2022 washouts. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run Hasn’t Died—It’s Evolving, Says Galaxy Research Head The Coinglass grid cannot timestamp intramonth highs or lows, but the clustering of major pivots into the final two months of the year is consistent with the market’s folklore and with the returns pattern that shows both exceptionally strong up months and some of the cycle’s most punishing down months in this window. The practical takeaway—again in Daan’s words—is not categorical bullishness, but regime risk: “All in all, an eventful last 2 months of the year generally speaking. Whether it’s on the bullish or bearish side, volatility and big market pivots have been the theme into the end of the year.” The heat map supports that characterization. November’s distribution spans the widest extremes on record—from +449.35% at the top to -36.57% on the downside—with a two-thirds hit rate for green months and a median gain in the low double digits. December, by contrast, has produced both cycle tops and cycle bottoms despite a modest average, a reminder that average and median statistics can obscure the path risk that defines Bitcoin’s fourth quarter. Seasonality is not destiny, and the sample is limited. Still, the data-backed message is clear: as November approaches, Bitcoin’s historical pattern has been less about quiet trend continuation and more about variance—the kind that has marked both euphoric blow-offs and capitulation lows. At press time, BTC traded at $114,487. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is fast approaching, and the bets are already pouring in as to what it would mean for the Bitcoin and crypto industry. The last FOMC meeting took place in September, when the Federal Reserve ended up cutting rates down to 4-4.25% after months of no rate cuts. With this setting the tone, the expectations that another rate cut could be on the way are getting louder, with the FedWatch Tool showing a high percentage. Market Expects Another Rate Cut To 3.75-4% The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for Wednesday, October 29, 2025, and there is already a major clamor around what the Fed is planning on doing. The current market headwinds point to a favorable outcome for risk assets such as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, with expected rate cuts. Related Reading: Here’s What The XRP Open Interest Reset Means For The Price Currently, the CME FedWatch Tool is showing that the probability of a rate cut has risen to 98.3% as of the time of this writing. This leaves only a 1.7% chance that the Federal Reserve will actually leave rates at their current levels, and there is zero chance that there will be a rate hike. A reduction in the rate cuts is good for businesses all around, as lower interest rates mean better loan terms and increased spending and borrowing. Thus, it will increase the participation in the markets, from consumer goods to the stock market, and then make its way into newer markets such as Bitcoin and crypto. Expectations For Bitcoin And Crypto Are Getting Higher A rate cut by the Federal Reserve aligns with the more pro-crypto stance that the United States has been moving in since President Donald Trump was elected. Last week, the president pardoned the Founder and former CEO of the Binance crypto exchange, Changpeng Zhao, after he previously pled guilty to money laundering violations back in 2024. Zhao has since served a 4-month stint before the pardon from Trump came. Related Reading: 100% Of Bitcoin Bull Market Peak Indicators Remain Untouched, Is There Still Room To Run? With the US embracing Bitcoin and crypto again, a rate cut will only further the ascent, allowing more investors to get into the market as liquidity frees up. The initial announcement has been known to trigger a rapid increase in the market. But as the news settles, the crypto market is expected to continue to rise in response. However, nothing is certain until the FOMC meeting is complete and the announcement is made. For the Bitcoin and crypto market to remain bullish, inflation will also have to be reduced, as an increase could trigger more conservative stances from investors. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Data shows the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has surged back into the neutral zone after the recovery rally in the cryptocurrency’s price. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Now Has A Value Of 51 The “Fear & Greed Index” refers to an indicator created by Alternative that measures the average sentiment present among traders in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency markets. The metric uses the data of the following five factors to determine the investor mentality: trading volume, market cap dominance, volatility, social media sentiment, and Google Trends. The index uses a numerical scale running from zero to hundred for representing this sentiment. All values above 53 correspond to greed among the investors, while those below 47 to fear. The region between the two cutoffs naturally corresponds to a net neutral mentality. Related Reading: Nearly $360M In Crypto Shorts Squeezed As Bitcoin Recovers To $116,000 Now, here is how the current Bitcoin market sentiment is like, according to the Fear & Greed Index: As is visible above, the indicator has a value of 51, which suggests the trader sentiment is almost exactly in the balance right now. This is a notable change in market mood compared to just a few days ago. As displayed in the chart, the Fear & Greed Index was inside the fear zone during the past few days. The despair among the traders was a result of the bearish price action that BTC had recently faced. At one point, the indicator even fell to a low of 22, reflecting a state of “extreme fear.” This zone, which occurs below 25, corresponds to investors being the most bearish toward the market. There is a similar region for the greed side as well, called the “extreme greed,” situated above 75. Historically, the extreme sentiments have been quite significant for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, as they are where major tops and bottoms have tended to form. The relationship has been an inverse one, however, meaning extreme fear is where bottoms form, while extreme greed facilitates tops. Since the extreme fear low earlier in the month, BTC has been on the way up, a potential indication that the contrarian signal of the sentiment may once again be in action. Related Reading: XRP Flashes TD Buy Signal: Start Of Fresh Rally? The cryptocurrency has extended its recovery in a sharp manner during the last couple of days, which may be a potential reason why the Fear & Greed Index has surged back to the neutral territory now. Though, for now, Bitcoin traders are still undecided on whether bullish action will follow next. It now remains to be seen whether they will embrace greed, or continue to be hesitant about the recovery. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $114,900, up 3.6% over the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Alternative.me, chart from TradingView.com

Data shows cryptocurrency short investors have suffered large liquidations during the past day as Bitcoin and altcoins have made a recovery. Bitcoin, Ethereum Have Surged In The Last 24 Hours Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have witnessed a rally during the past day, breaking away from the slump the market had earlier fallen into. At the height of this surge, Bitcoin broke past $116,000, while Ethereum touched $4,250. Related Reading: XRP Flashes TD Buy Signal: Start Of Fresh Rally? The assets have since seen a small retracement. The chart below shows how BTC’s latest trajectory has looked. At its current price of $115,400, Bitcoin is up about 4% on the weekly timeframe. Similarly, Ethereum at $4,160 is in a profit of 3.4%. Most other digital assets have seen similarly positive returns, although there are some outliers like Tron, which is down more than 7%. The market-wide recovery during the past day has meant that a large amount of short liquidations have piled up on the derivatives exchanges. Crypto Market Liquidations Have Totaled At $467 Million According to data from CoinGlass, about $467 million in cryptocurrency-related derivatives contracts have been liquidated over the last 24 hours. A contract is said to be “liquidated” when its platform forcibly shuts it down after it accumulates losses of a certain degree (as defined by the exchange). Given that coins across the board have rebounded, the contracts crossing this threshold would mostly be the short ones. And indeed, the data would confirm so. As is visible above, liquidations related to bearish cryptocurrency bets have reached $358 million in this window, representing 76.6% of the total flush in the sector. Bitcoin led the liquidations with $177 million in contracts involved, while Ethereum contributed the second most with $130 million in contracts. Out of the rest, Solana witnessed the largest flush at $34 million. In some other news, Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have observed a notable amount of inflows over the past month, as CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has pointed out in an X post. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Drop To $97,500 If This Key On-Chain Level Fails, Glassnode Warns Spot ETFs refer to investment vehicles that allow investors to gain exposure to an asset without having to directly own it. The US SEC approved BTC spot ETFs in January of 2024. Here is the chart shared by the analyst that shows how the 30-day netflow for these vehicles has fluctuated since: As displayed in the above graph, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen inflows of $4.7 billion during the past month. Ethereum spot ETFs, which gained approval in mid-2024, have also enjoyed inflows in this period, although their value of $983 million is significantly less than BTC’s. Featured image from Dall-E, CoinGlass.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s recent liquidity flush has stirred volatility across the market, leaving traders cautious as Ethereum shows signs of a potential recovery. While BTC struggles to stabilize after clearing key liquidity levels, ETH is attempting to reclaim crucial resistance, setting the stage for what could be the next major directional move in the crypto market. Market Weakness Persists After $116,000 Liquidity Sweep Can Özsüer, in his latest BTC 1H Current Chart update shared on X, highlighted that the hourly chart of Bitcoin shows little to no bullish reflection at the moment. He pointed out that market sentiment has weakened, particularly after the $116,000 liquidity zone was cleared, which further dampened the outlook across the broader crypto market. Related Reading: Ethereum’s Pre-Rally Setup: Holding The $3,600 Zone Could Spur An Upward Trend According to Özsüer, the overall setup remains fragile, and taking scalp long positions in such conditions could be risky until a clearer reversal structure begins to form. Özsüer identified the $111,000 level as a potential zone for an initial reaction buy, suggesting that some short-term support could emerge around this point. However, he cautioned that if this level fails to hold, Bitcoin could experience a sharper decline toward the trendline support near $109,000. He further advised that traders should construct their strategies carefully, focusing on the zones within what he referred to as “box number 1.” This area could provide a technical framework for identifying potential entry points and managing risk effectively. To conclude, Özsüer noted that the cleanest and safest approach would be to align trading plans around optimal price levels while ensuring that positions remain protected above the defined support structure. Bullish Momentum Builds If $4,200 Is Reclaimed While Bitcoin faces a potential drawdown, crypto analyst Ted Pillows revealed that ETH is currently engaged in a critical fight to reclaim the $4,200 resistance zone. The success of this immediate technical battle is crucial, as it will determine the asset’s trajectory in the days to come. Related Reading: Bitcoin ‘True Bull Run’ May Yet To Begin — Analyst Explains Why Ted pillows outlined the condition for a continuation of the rally; if Ethereum is able to decisively reclaim and hold the $4,200 level, traders should “expect more bullish continuation.” Conquering this resistance would likely signal a clear path to the next higher price targets. Conversely, should ETH fail to secure the $4,200 zone, the price will likely retreat. The analyst predicts that this failure would trigger a necessary retest of the $4,000 level before the market can attempt any further upward moves, indicating that $4,000 acts as the crucial defense line against a deeper correction. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing renewed strength, reclaiming the $115,000 level after weeks of volatility and uncertainty. Bulls are attempting to build momentum for a potential impulse move higher, aiming to confirm a sustained bullish structure after the recent consolidation phase. Related Reading: Ethereum OG Drives $500M Liquidity Flow Into ConcreteXYZ & Stable Vaults – Details On-chain data continues to reveal a clear and repeating pattern tied to investor behavior and market cycles. Historically, when the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit climbs above 95%, the market tends to enter an overheated phase, often leading to sharp corrections. These pullbacks serve as natural cooling periods, resetting sentiment and liquidity before the next major leg up. Interestingly, each correction cycle has shown consistent bottoming zones around the 75% threshold, where long-term holders reaccumulate and market confidence begins to rebuild. More specifically, data highlights profit supply lows of 73% in September 2024, 76% in April 2024, and a recent rebound from 81%, signaling a potential mid-cycle recovery phase. Bitcoin Supply in Profit Rises to 83.6% — Momentum Rebuilds Ahead of Key Threshold According to top analyst Darkfost, the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit has started to climb again, currently standing at 83.6%. This steady rise indicates that a growing share of Bitcoin holders are once again sitting on unrealized gains — a trend that often reflects improving sentiment and renewed market confidence. Darkfost notes that this level can be interpreted as encouraging, suggesting that investors are willing to hold their BTC instead of realizing profits, anticipating further upside in the near term. Historically, such behavior has been characteristic of mid-cycle recovery phases, when fear starts to fade and accumulation resumes across both retail and institutional segments. This stage of the cycle is considered healthy for rebuilding momentum, as it allows the market to stabilize after large corrections. Holders who previously capitulated often reenter at this stage, while long-term participants strengthen their positions, creating a more resilient market structure. However, Darkfost cautions that once the supply in profit surpasses 95%, it typically signals overheated market conditions — a point where euphoria tends to replace rational conviction. In such phases, Bitcoin historically faces increased volatility and sharp corrections as overleveraged traders and short-term speculators take profits. Related Reading: Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase Signals Accumulation Before Next Growth Wave BTC Retests $115K Resistance: Bulls Regain Momentum Bitcoin (BTC) is showing renewed bullish momentum, trading around $115,443 and successfully reclaiming key short-term support levels after weeks of consolidation. The daily chart highlights a strong recovery structure, with BTC breaking above both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, signaling a shift in short-term market sentiment. The next critical test lies at $117,500, a historical resistance zone that previously rejected multiple attempts in September and early October. A clear breakout and daily close above this level would likely confirm an impulse continuation toward $120K–$125K, opening the door for a more sustained uptrend. Related Reading: Chris Larsen Cashes Out: $764M In XRP Profits Since 2018 Momentum indicators suggest strengthening buying pressure, while the recent bounce from the 200-day moving average near $107K underscores the market’s resilience. This level acted as a springboard for the current rally, aligning with the broader pattern of accumulation seen on-chain, where investor profitability is rising steadily. However, BTC remains within a range-bound structure, and rejection at $117.5K could trigger short-term consolidation back toward $111K–$112K. Overall, Bitcoin’s technical outlook appears constructive — if the bulls can sustain above $115K and confirm strength above $117.5K, the market could transition into a new bullish leg, supported by improving investor sentiment and on-chain health. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin price is positioning for a potentially explosive move that could take it well beyond its previous all-time highs. Analysts are closely watching a critical resistance level near $116,000, which may serve as the final hurdle before BTC catapults into uncharted territory above $126,000.  Analyst Predicts New Bitcoin Price All-Time High Crypto analyst Donny Dicey revealed in an X social media post this week that the $116,000 price level is the decisive zone Bitcoin must breach to confirm a breakout toward a new all-time high. His technical analysis suggests that once BTC achieves a clean break above this resistance area, momentum could swiftly carry it above $126,000.  Related Reading: Here’s How High The Bitcoin Price Would Be If It Catches Up With The Stock Market Notably, Bitcoin set a new ATH on October 6, 2025, after breaking through its previous record above $124,000 and climbing past $126,000. Since achieving this level, the price of BTC has fallen dramatically to $115,000. Dicey’s accompanying chart shows the market steadily recovering after testing support near $108,000, marked as a “market structure break” region, with bullish price action consolidating above $109,000.  The analyst has emphasized that each day Bitcoin maintains a close above $109,000 strengthens the probability of a strong upward swing as the market heads into November. This period coincides with the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) next meeting, where investors are anticipating dovish signals such as rate cuts or the formal end of Quantitative Tightening (QT). Dicey also notes that bullish S&P 500 earnings, easing global trade tensions from a potential agreement between US President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping, and improving ISM manufacturing data point to a macro environment supportive of risk assets. A community member commented that whales may have underestimated how much BTC’s demand tends to persist during these conditions. Dicey responded that the same whales might become “exit liquidity” as Bitcoin accelerates higher, possibly missing out on the strongest phase of this cycle.  Consolidation Above January Highs Signal Unbreakable Strength In a follow-up analysis, Dicey highlighted Bitcoin’s remarkable stability above its January highs, describing its price structure as “unbreakable” amid global macroeconomic uncertainty. He pointed to several converging factors that reinforce BTC’s resilience, including ongoing fiscal and monetary expansion, a weakening US dollar, and renewed confidence in the global business cycle.  Related Reading: Bitcoin And Astrology: Moon Cycles Predict When The BTC Price Will Touch $138,000 The analyst also emphasized that geopolitical tensions tied to US-China relations appear to be subsiding. At the same time, ETF inflows and exponential growth in the Artificial Intelligence (AI) sector contribute to acting as tailwinds for digital assets. He disclosed that despite strong underlying fundamentals, skepticism remains widespread in the market. According to him, many still believe in the traditional four-year cycle narrative, while retail enthusiasm has not fully returned. Furthermore, the Russell 2000 index has yet to breakout, and rotation from traditional assets, such as the S&P 500 and gold, into Bitcoin remains limited. With these developments subduing broader market participation, Dicey suggests it creates the perfect setup for a powerful rally in BTC once sentiment shifts decisively. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

According to NYDIG research, Bitcoin’s price moves are driven more by the strength of the US dollar and broad liquidity conditions than by direct ties to inflation. Greg Cipolaro, NYDIG’s global head of research, said the data show weak and inconsistent links between inflation measures and Bitcoin. That view shifts attention away from the old narrative that Bitcoin is mainly an inflation hedge. Related Reading: XRP: The Catalyst For ‘Humanity’s Greatest Shift’ By 2030 —Analyst Inflation Link Weak Cipolaro argued that expectations for inflation are a slightly better signal than headline inflation readings, but still not a tight predictor of Bitcoin’s price. Instead, Bitcoin and gold both tend to gain when the US dollar weakens. While gold’s inverse relation with the dollar is long established, Bitcoin’s opposite movement to the dollar is newer but visible. Gold And Bitcoin React To Dollar Moves Based on reports, gold has historically climbed as the dollar falls. Bitcoin is following that pattern, though its correlation is less steady than gold’s. As Bitcoin becomes more connected with mainstream finance, NYDIG expects that its inverse relationship with the dollar will likely strengthen. This makes sense to traders who price everything in dollars and seek alternatives when the greenback loses purchasing power. Interest Rates And Money Supply Cipolaro highlighted interest rates and money supply as the two major macro levers that move both gold and Bitcoin. Lower interest rates and looser monetary policy have tended to support higher prices for these assets. In simple terms: when borrowing costs drop and liquidity rises, Bitcoin often benefits. The note framed gold as more of a real-rate hedge, while Bitcoin is described as acting like a gauge of market liquidity — a subtle but important distinction for investors. Illiquid Supply Drops, Selling Pressure Returns On-chain data show signs of renewed selling. Reports say illiquid Bitcoin — coins held in long-dormant wallets — fell from 14.38 million earlier in October to 14.300 million on the 23rd of October. Related Reading: ‘Money Will Pour In’ – CEO Predicts Bitcoin Will Explode To $180K That change means roughly 62,000 BTC, worth about $6.8 billion at recent prices, moved back into circulation. In the past, large inflows did exert price pressure. In January 2024, a substantial sum of coins came available that caused the price momentum to soften. According to Glassnode data, there has been a consistent selloff from wallets holding from 0.1 to 100 BTC, and first-time buyer supply has contracted down to ~213,000 BTC. The overall assessment from a macro perspective and on-chain metrics is not favorable. Demand from new buyers appears to be lighter, momentum traders appear to have stepped aside, and more coins are now available to trade. This combination can blunt rallies or deepen pullbacks until liquidity conditions improve or the dollar weakens. Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView

Over the years, a number of indicators have emerged that have often helped to pinpoint the Bitcoin bull market peak. These indicators have been triggered in previous cycles, and their triggers have often been a signal that it was time to get out of the market, as a new bear market is underway. However, this time around, even with the Bitcoin price hitting multiple new all-time highs, none of these cycle peak indicators have been triggered, suggesting that the market top has yet to be reached. 0 Out Of 30 Bull Market Peak Indicators Triggered The Bull Market Peak Indicator tracker on the Coinglass website follows a total of 30 indicators that follow 30 indicators that show the progress of the Bitcoin bull market toward reaching a top. Some major ones include the Bitcoin Bubble Index, the Puell Multiple, the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, and the Altcoin Season Index, among others. Related Reading: Trump To Install New Pro-Crypto CFTC Chair? Here’s What We Know So Far Usually, these indicators are tracked on a scale of 0-100%, with 0% meaning that it is far from being triggered and 100% showing that an indicator has been triggered. If only a few of these get to the 100% mark and are triggered, it usually doesn’t mean that the Bitcoin peak has been reached. However, even now, not one of these indicators has been triggered. Most continue to remain quite low, while the likes of the Bitcoin dominance are high, but still have not been triggered. For there to be a definite progress toward the Bitcoin market peak, at least half of these would have to be triggered. What This Means For Investors Since none of the bull market peak indicators have been triggered, it means that the Bitcoin price might actually be far away from its all-time high. With the score still being 0 out of 30, it points to this being a time to hold, despite the declines that the market has suffered recently. Related Reading: Here’s How High The Bitcoin Price Would Be If It Catches Up With The Stock Market According to a previous report from Bitcoinist, this was the case a few months ago, and now two months later, the tracker remains the same. Thus, it could be that $126,000 is not the all-time high for Bitcoin, and that the market could end up getting an altcoin season after all. In the case that more than half of the bull market peak indicators do get triggered, then it means that the top of the market is getting close. Once it gets to 30/30, then it signals the start of the next bear market, and this is when selling is at its highest in the market, leading to rapid price declines across the board. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

The XRP/BTC monthly chart has finally snapped the long diagonal that’s capped XRP since 2018, and one analyst on X thinks that shift could rewrite the pecking order. Posting under the handle X Finance Bull (XFB), the analyst argued that XRP will soon start to outperform Bitcoin.  This is because the XRP/BTC pair has not only broken out but also retested the trendline as support, and this has certified the start of a new buildup of momentum. Related Reading: XRP Sparks Bullish Frenzy As Top Software Dev Says It Beats ETF Hype Retest Of A Six-Year Breakout Trendline The mid-October flash crash that rippled through the crypto market left a visible mark on the XRP/BTC chart, creating a deep downward wick that momentarily dipped below the long-standing resistance trendline. However, as Bitcoin started to recover to above $110,000, XRP struggled to keep up and lost ground relative to Bitcoin.  Interestingly, price action shows that this move was short-lived, and XRP has started to recover against Bitcoin in recent trading sessions. As shown on the monthly candlestick timeframe chart below, the wick fell to the exact level of the breakout retest, a point where former resistance turned into new support. This breakout occurred in late 2024/early 2025, when XRP outperformed Bitcoin for three consecutive months. From there, the XRP/Bitcoin pair was able to break out of a downward-sloping resistance trendline of lower highs spanning over six years.  Since then, however, 2025 has been characterized by more months of Bitcoin outperforming XRP than months of XRP outperforming Bitcoin, with October falling into the former group of months. Particularly, during the flash crash, the XRP/BTC pair plunged to around 0.000007 before rebounding almost immediately, a move that, according to XFB, represents the long-awaited retest of the broken trendline. XRP/Bitcoin 1M chart. Source: @Xfinancebull Since that retest, XRP has recovered impressively, with the pair maintaining a monthly close above the diagonal that once acted as a ceiling. This technical confirmation signals the completion of the breakout from the 2018 to 2024 downtrend that had defined XRP’s multi-year underperformance against Bitcoin. The monthly structure is now displaying the early signs of an upward shift, with the pair trading around 0.00002258 BTC. XRP To Decouple And Outperform Bitcoin? According to the analyst, XRP is about to undergo a rally that massively outperforms Bitcoin and melts the face of many Bitcoin maximalists. XFB’s chart outlines two target zones ahead for XRP: 0.00014688 BTC and 0.00023009 BTC. The first target corresponds to the consolidation area seen between 2018 and 2019, while the second represents a major resistance cluster from the earlier phase of XRP’s creation. If XRP/BTC rallies to those levels, it would amount to approximately a 6x and 10x gain relative to Bitcoin, respectively. Related Reading: ‘The Best Is Yet To Come’: Ripple President Sees Bright Path Ahead For XRP The analyst also connects the technical setup to Ripple’s growing institutional ecosystem. He pointed to Ripple Prime, GTreasury, Metaco, Standard Custody, and Rail as part of the infrastructure that’s setting up XRP as a bridge asset for global finance. These partnerships give XRP an edge heading into the coming months, as it moves into real institutional utility and starts outperforming Bitcoin. If these developments continue, the incoming decoupling of the XRP/BTC pair could become one of the most significant events for XRP. At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $3.63, up by 3.5% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

CryptoWzrd, in his latest daily technical outlook, noted that Bitcoin managed to close in the green, but the candle remains indecisive, signaling that a clear reversal is yet to form. He added that more healthy bullish candles are needed to confirm a shift in momentum. For now, his attention is on the lower timeframes, where he plans to look for the next long opportunity once the current position is secured. Indecisive Daily Close Reflects Market Uncertainty After CPI Data Crypto analyst CryptoWzrd began his analysis by noting the ambiguity in recent price action, stating that the daily Bitcoin candle closed indecisively, although it was green. The primary focus of the past week was the traditional weekly candle close following the release of the US CPI data. Meanwhile, the weekly candle also closed without a clear direction, leaving the overall market structure ambiguous. Related Reading: Analyst Says 55% Chance Bitcoin Bull Run Isn’t Over Yet – Here’s Why The analyst defined a clear condition for the rally to continue. BTC’s ability to push higher is entirely dependent upon holding above the $110,500 resistance level. Maintaining this key floor should generate enough positive momentum to boost the market further upside, targeting the major resistance at $120,000 and potentially higher if conviction remains strong. However, if the price fails to hold $110,500, the market is at risk of declining further. In this scenario, the analyst targets the key technical support level located at $100,000 as the likely floor for the ensuing correction. Regardless of whether Bitcoin executes a bullish or bearish move, the analyst issued a warning regarding the broader market. During the weekend, most altcoins will not forge their own paths but will instead simply mirror the outcome of Bitcoin’s price action. The health of the altcoin market is directly linked to Bitcoin Dominance (BTCD), which the analyst observes as neutral on the daily chart. For altcoins to break free of Bitcoin’s gravitational pull and remain positive, the market requires more structural weakness in BTC.D.  On Choppy Price Action & Ongoing Uncertainty CryptoWzrd concluded the analysis by noting that the intraday chart activity had been “somewhat choppy” throughout the day, suggesting a lack of clear directional momentum in the short term. Despite this recent consolidation, the underlying expectation remains bullish. Related Reading: Standard Chartered Predicts Bitcoin Drop Below $100K Even as Global M2 Growth Turns Bullish Looking ahead, the analyst predicts a further upside move towards the $115,300 resistance in the near future. At this stage, the market has performed its necessary moves, and the next step is simply to wait for the market to play out and confirm the push toward the pivotal $120,000 resistance target. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The US stock market has just achieved a historic milestone, closing at its highest weekly levels ever recorded. The S&P 500 finished the week at 6,791.68 while the US 100 Index reached 25,358.15, both setting new all-time highs. Easing inflation data, strong corporate earnings, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts have all combined to keep investor sentiment bullish. Amid this record-setting environment, crypto analyst Ash Crypto posted an observation on X that asks the question of how high Bitcoin would trade when it finally catches up to the US stock market. US Stock Market’s Record-Breaking Momentum The S&P 500’s record-breaking climb represents a continuation of the stock market’s steady ascent through the second half of the year, which has been boosted by the Fed rate cut in September, expectations of further rate cuts, and confidence in corporate performance. Related Reading: Analyst Says Understanding This Bitcoin Structure Is Like Having A Superpower  The tech-heavy US 100 Index led the charge, climbing past 25,000 for the first time ever this week as large-cap technology stocks posted strong quarterly results. This trend means that the long-running bull trend in traditional markets is intact. However, what is really compelling is the contrast between Wall Street’s all-time highs and Bitcoin’s relative stagnation. After starting October in a breakout move to new all-time highs above $126,000, the leading cryptocurrency went on a flash crash that took many traders by surprise. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is consolidating around $111,000 despite other asset classes showing strength. Ash Crypto’s post argues that Bitcoin’s price is being artificially held back compared to how stocks have responded to the same macro backdrop. If Bitcoin had followed the percentage gains of the S&P 500 or US 100 Index, it could already be trading between $140,000 and $150,000. When Bitcoin Finally Catches Up The first surge of liquidity always appears in the stock market whenever the Fed begins to slow quantitative tightening (QT) or hints at loosening conditions. This is because the stock market is where the deepest capital pools and institutional participation exist. Equities react first because that’s where the credit channels are most established.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Profit Sees Sharp Decline With Market Crash – Here Are The Numbers Bitcoin is still positioned outside the traditional financial system, and hence, tends to lag this initial move. But once the excess liquidity starts spilling into other assets, Bitcoin’s price has always increased at a much faster pace than stocks. According to Ash Crypto, Bitcoin will catch up soon and hit at least $130,000. Notably, Bitcoin’s on-chain data is already showing signs of the impending surge. For instance, recent figures show that available sell-side liquidity (the total amount of Bitcoin sitting on exchanges ready to be sold) has dropped to just 3.12 million BTC, its lowest point in seven years. Furthermore, data shows that long-term investors have bought 373,700 BTC in the past 30 days.  At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $111,600. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The Bitcoin price action has been somewhat impressive in 2025, as the flagship cryptocurrency ascended from around $93,300 in early January to its current all-time-high price of $126,000 this month. While the digital asset saw a couple of resets along the way, it continued to put in new highs, reflecting the magnitude of confidence held by its long-term investors. However, the recent correction seen this October seems to be shaking that confidence, raising questions about the sustainability of Bitcoin’s bull cycle, and if the long-feared bear market is imminent. However, recent on-chain data points to an interestingly brighter outlook than what is currently being experienced by market participants. Some Relevant BTC On-Chain Levels In an October 24 post on the X platform, pseudonymous on-chain analyst Arch Physicist highlighted what could be encouraging news for Bitcoin market participants. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Prediction: Analyst Forecasts What Will Happen In The Last Quarter Of The Year The crypto pundit’s analysis was based on the Value Coin-Days Destroyed (VCDD) to Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric, which measures the amount of coins that are moved on the blockchain in relation to the potential profits based on their movements. Essentially, this metric is used to locate price zones that can serve as support or resistance.  Arch Physicist highlighted four important readings from the metric, thereafter explaining on the underlying functions of each of them. The analyst noted: ‘Gamma + Epsilon’ is used to determine structural highs formed due to Long-Term Holder (LTH) profit-taking, with its current value being around $147,937; ‘Delta + Epsilon’ represents support formed by Short-Term Holder (STH) entry opportunities, currently valued at approximately $92,902. Epsilon, on its part, is used to represent potential price floors.  LTH Support Holds As Bitcoin Puts In Highs  Arch Physicist further explained that the metric’s functions are in tandem with Bitcoin’s historical price action. “Bitcoin’s price has broken above the structural high (Gamma + Epsilon) and reached ATHs near Beta during bull runs. It has also historically made ATLs very close to Epsilon,” the analyst said. Interestingly, the Bitcoin price in this cycle has consistently traded within the support zones established by its LTHs, and the ones by its STHs. However, price seems to be heading towards the lower support zone, which, if breached, could signal the beginning of a bear market. On the other hand, the sustained integrity of the upper support could also be indicating that the bull run has not even started.  As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at approximately $11,890, with no significant movement in the past 24 hours.  Related Reading: Bitcoin And Astrology: Moon Cycles Predict When The BTC Price Will Touch $138,000 Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) liquidity is drying up fast, as the metric recently hit a seven-year low, reaching around 3.12 million BTC, the lowest level since 2018. This occurred as BTC continued to trade below the 99-day Moving Average (MA), located around $112,086. Bitcoin Liquidity Dries Up Amid High Demand According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, Bitcoin’s sell-side liquidity is drying up at a rapid pace, recently hitting a seven-year low at 3.12 million BTC. Related Reading: Bitcoin Cycle Score Turns Negative With Trend Below $106,780 – When Will The Correction End? As BTC’s supply tumbles sharply, the cryptocurrency is trading in the low $110,000 range, indicating a delicate balance between falling active circulating supply and growing institutional demand. Latest on-chain data shows that demand for BTC from long-term holders’ addresses has been steadily rising. Over the past 30 days, long-term investors have accumulated 373,700 BTC.  Long-term investors accumulating BTC during the latest dip shows that there is sufficient market demand for the flagship cryptocurrency despite a volatile crypto market. Arab Chain remarked that the market is currently in a “quiet accumulation” phase ahead of a potential breakout. The CryptoQuant analyst emphasized that the Liquidity Inventory Ratio (LIR) has crashed to around 8.3 months, suggesting that current market liquidity covers less than nine months’ worth of demand – confirming the rapid depletion in BTC’s sellable supply. For the uninitiated, the LIR measures the balance between available liquidity and active trading demand in the market, showing whether market makers are providing sufficient depth relative to recent trade volume. A high LIR suggests ample liquidity and stable price movement, while a low LIR indicates thinner order books and higher vulnerability to volatility or slippage. The medium-term outlook for BTC looks bullish, due to a combination of declining liquidity and growing demand from institutional and long-term investors. Arab Chain added: If this trend continues through the end of the fourth quarter, Bitcoin’s price could surpass $115,000, especially if accompanied by rising buying flows from US investment funds and ETFs, supporting the continuation of the current bullish trend. BTC Top Not In Yet While some analysts predict that BTC may have already peaked this market cycle, others are confident that the top cryptocurrency is yet to hit its cycle high. Recent on-chain data indicates that BTC NVT Golden Cross is yet to enter the territory that marked previous cycle tops. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Next Bull Phase Could Be Near As BTC-Stablecoin Ratio Plummets Similarly, fellow CryptoQuant analyst PelinayPA predicted that there is a 55% chance that Bitcoin has not yet topped for the current market cycle. At press time, BTC trades at $111,295, up 2.1% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Bitcoin continues to trade around the $110,000 level, unable to reclaim higher ground after weeks of volatile price action. The market is still digesting the impact of the October 10 flash crash, which erased billions in open interest and sent shockwaves across altcoins. Despite a gradual recovery in on-chain metrics and institutional inflows, sentiment remains fragile, with traders hesitant to take new long positions. Related Reading: Bitcoin STH-SOPR Falls Below 1.0 for the First Time Since April – What This Means According to top analyst Axel Adler, the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase — a key indicator used to measure speculative pressure and market overheating — has now entered the Bottom or Accumulation zone. This signals a cooling-off period in speculation, suggesting that short-term trading activity is fading while long-term accumulation quietly resumes. However, Adler warns that this phase requires stability to play out effectively. For Bitcoin to initiate a sustainable rally, volatility must continue to decrease, and no major macro shocks — such as a surge in gold or US bond demand — should disrupt the current equilibrium. The coming weeks may define whether BTC consolidates or slips into renewed risk-off territory. Bitcoin Accumulation Signals Strength, But Stability Is Key Axel Adler explains that when the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase drops into the Bottom or Accumulation zone, it often represents a pivotal moment within a broader bull market. Historically, such readings coincide with periods where speculative pressure fades, leverage resets, and market participants begin quietly accumulating positions ahead of the next growth phase. These zones tend to appear after major corrections, when weak hands exit and the market regains structural balance — a necessary condition for sustained recovery. This phase reflects a shift from emotional trading to strategic accumulation. During these stages, on-chain activity typically shows increased wallet balances among long-term holders, while short-term traders reduce exposure. However, for this accumulation to translate into a meaningful rally, one critical condition must be met: volatility must decline. High volatility implies uncertainty and risk aversion, discouraging new capital inflows. A gradual cooling of volatility creates the stability needed for market confidence to rebuild. The analyst emphasizes that Bitcoin’s current setup requires at least a short stretch — roughly a week — without major negative global catalysts. External shocks such as surging bond yields, geopolitical tension, or renewed macro risk-off sentiment could easily disrupt the fragile recovery process. In essence, the market appears to be in a delicate balance: the speculative cycle has cooled enough to allow accumulation, but stability remains the missing piece for momentum to return. If volatility continues to decline and macro conditions hold steady, this accumulation phase could serve as the foundation for Bitcoin’s next major rally, mirroring previous transition points seen in past bull cycles. Related Reading: Chris Larsen Cashes Out: $764M In XRP Profits Since 2018 Price Action Details: Testing Key Level Bitcoin is currently trading near $110,936, struggling to gain momentum after several failed attempts to reclaim higher levels. The 4-hour chart shows a period of consolidation following the sharp recovery from the October 10 crash, with BTC moving in a tight range between $108,000 and $112,000. This structure reflects indecision in the market as buyers and sellers battle for short-term control. The 50 EMA (blue) is attempting to cross above the short-term range, signaling some recovery in short-term momentum. However, Bitcoin remains below both the 100 EMA (green) and the 200 EMA (red), indicating that the broader trend is still under bearish pressure. The $111,000–$112,000 zone is acting as immediate resistance, while $108,000 serves as critical short-term support. Related Reading: Bitcoin Trapped On Binance: The Battle Between $107K and $119K Heats Up If Bitcoin manages to break above the $112,000 resistance with volume confirmation, it could trigger a push toward the $117,500 level — the key horizontal resistance aligned with previous liquidity clusters. Conversely, rejection at this level may lead to another pullback toward $106,000 or lower, especially if volatility increases. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s grinding tape, tamed volatility and repeated, incremental all-time highs are not symptoms of a failed cycle but evidence of a market changing hands and changing character, according to Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of firmwide research in an interview released October 23. Bitcoin Bull Run Gone Quiet: Here’s Why The researcher argues that the driver capping bitcoin’s near-term upside is exogenous—US–China tariff risk—rather than any structural deterioration in the asset’s fundamentals or adoption. “I don’t yet think it’s more existential than that for the bull market,” he said, describing the current price action as “sort of crab,” with the market “still” climbing a wall of worry. The price discussion hinged on two linked observations. First, bitcoin is not trading like gold yet because “markets move on the margins,” and marginal flows still treat BTC as risk. Second, those margins are shifting, with passive, long-term allocators steadily absorbing distribution from older cohorts. “Significant distribution from old hands to new hands” has created resistance, he said, but that process is “healthy,” widening ownership and maturing the market. He framed a psychological and structural line of demarcation at six figures: “Maybe we delineate there the pre-$100K bitcoin world versus the post-$100K bitcoin world. I think it’s going to look a lot different.” Related Reading: Last-Ever Bitcoin Dip Below $100,000 Looms This Week, Standard Chartered Warns He contends gold’s behavior helps explain the present inter-asset divergence. “This still is the debasement trade…and it’s the anti-US government trade,” he said, noting that recent gold strength has been “all offshore,” with bids arriving “during European and Asian hours,” consistent with “foreign central banks and large…sovereign wealth funds” diversifying away from US exposure. By contrast, the bitcoin price is pinned to risk appetite at the edges of the market. That said, he expects the asset to converge toward a gold-like profile as ownership migrates to institutions: “BlackRock’s chilling the digital gold narrative…Fidelity, this is how they talk about it,” he said, adding that as more supply moves into the hands of registered investment advisors and passive vehicles, BTC “will…trade a lot more like a risk-off, non-sovereign scarcity hedge asset.” The near-term overhang, in his view, is the tariff scare that followed statements on October 10 about potential 100% levies on China, which “caused” a leverage washout and stalled a strong October. “Quite simply an abatement of the tariff war between the US and China…would sort of set us right back on course in risk markets,” he said, anticipating a compromise rather than a “protracted bloody trade war.” Thorn also downplayed the next Federal Reserve meeting as a catalyst for bitcoin’s direction, while acknowledging that with official economic data delayed, the Fed’s own proprietary datasets could make its communication unusually market-relevant: “They’re going to have data. We don’t have data, but they’ll share the data.” Galaxy Lowers EOY Bitcoin Price Prediction Against that backdrop, he marked down—but did not abandon—his year-end targets. “At the beginning of the year, I was calling for $150,000 and then $185,000 in Q4… I am going to materially draw down that prediction to maybe like $130,000 by EOY,” he said. Thorn described 2025’s path as a slow, volatile stair-step higher—“from like $100k to…$74k to then $126k to now $108l”—with realized volatility declining. To illustrate the regime change, host Joe Consorti highlighted a 90-day realized volatility reading near 29, far below the 2017 and 2021 cycle peaks, and summarized the shifting drivers: “It’s more of a macro trade than anything…moving much further into…being impacted…by the macro regime.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Drop To $97,500 If This Key On-Chain Level Fails, Glassnode Warns Institutional distribution channels were a recurring theme. The Galaxy research head pointed to wealth-platform access and custody bank initiatives as late-cycle but powerful accelerants. Thorn cited Morgan Stanley’s move to let advisors recommend a small allocation (2-4%) through spot ETFs and said that three of the four largest global custody banks have either launched or announced digital-asset custody, with one notable holdout. The implication, he argued, is that the ETF bid and wirehouse adoption are replacing the old, concentrated holder base: “The era of the early bitcoin adopter is now finally, I think, fully coming to an end. And now you’re in…whatever that stage is…this is going to be a widely owned macro asset in everybody’s portfolio.” NEW EPISODE: Over The Horizon ????️ Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) joins me to discuss: – Why markets are so anxious – Institutional adoption and Bitcoin’s next era – AI CapEx & lessons from the dot-com boom – The future of digital asset treasuries pic.twitter.com/pVuKs3MWJH — Horizon (@JoinHorizon_) October 23, 2025 Macro cross-currents complicate the timing. The AI capital-expenditure boom—he called it “the most important trend in markets”—is either nearing a speculative blow-off or, in a more geopolitical framing, just entering a Manhattan Project–style national-priority phase. If the latter proves correct, the knock-on effects for liquidity, rates, energy and semiconductors could be larger and longer-lived than typical tech cycles. But for bitcoin specifically, he kept coming back to tariffs as the decisive near-term swing factor and to microstructure as the reason the chart feels both heavier and sturdier than past cycles: a passive ETF bid absorbing OG supply at psychologically significant round numbers, without the “massive uplifts” that once followed fresh all-time highs. The base case he outlined is not euphoria but endurance. Or, as he put it more bluntly earlier in the conversation, the bull run hasn’t died—“it’s evolving.” At press time, BTC traded at $111,183. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

There have been different ways that market analysts have tried to predict the direction that the Bitcoin price could be headed next. Many have turned to technical analysis, reading chart formations and patterns in a bid to pinpoint the next move. Others turn to market sentiment, using social commentary in a bid to determine what might happen next. However, one lesser-known route some analysts have taken is astrology, which is a study of how the movement of celestial bodies affects human behaviour, and ultimately, the Bitcoin and crypto market. Using The Moon Cycles To Predict Bitcoin Movements Crypto analyst Draz is one of the few who use astrology to actually analyze the market and what could happen in relation to the position of the moon. In an X post, the analyst clearly outlined how the moon cycles have been affecting the Bitcoin price, and thus, how the upcoming cycles could play out for the price. Related Reading: XRP Price Teleport To $6: What Happens When The Euphoric Phase Begin Draz explained that the dark phase of the moon, which had occurred back on October 13, had actually pointed to choppy price action for Bitcoin. This comes days after the October 10 liquidation event that saw over $19 billion in losses in a single day. Nevertheless, this choppy price action is expected to still be slightly bullish as it continues to play out. After the Bitcoin price bounced from its $102,000 liquidation lows, Draz also explains that there was an energy drain, coinciding with the last quarter moon. This also follows the previously established trend of the Bitcoin price falling during dark moon periods, with four out of the last five dark moon periods leading to a decline in price. However, there is also a silver lining with this with the advent of the new moon that began on October 21. The new moon has sometimes ushered in price reversals, leading to an uptick in price, but nothing substantial yet. Rather, all eyes now are on October 29, when the real move could begin. Related Reading: Altcoin Season: Here’s What Happens If The Bitcoin Price Sees A Parabolic Move To $200,000 This is because October 29 is when the next First Quarter moon is supposed to appear. This is the precursor to the next bright moon, and these have historically been bullish for price. This will lead into the month of November, where the bulls could really take over. Crypto analyst Draz believes that the month of November could lead to fireworks for the Bitcoin price. Looking at the shared chart, the analyst shows a possible move up to the $138,000 territory, leading into the Last Quarter Moon on November 11. If this holds, then the Bitcoin price could be less than a week away from reversing into another bull rally. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin price has recently experienced a significant uptick in volatility, positively impacting its performance as it recovered to $110,000 after opening the week at $107,000.  Despite this, Bitcoin’s struggle to maintain momentum near all-time high levels, combined with increasing selling pressure over the past month, has led some to speculate that the current bull run may have peaked. Analysts at The Bull Theory, on the other hand, have identified key indicators suggesting a shift in Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle, with potential for the ongoing bullish trend to extend into 2026.  Anticipating Bitcoin Price Peak In Q2 2026 In a post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), the analysts explained that the typical Bitcoin price pattern has historically followed a straightforward rhythm: Halving, a 12–18 month rally, a blow-off top, and then a bear market. This pattern has held true for over a decade, but recent data indicates a significant change. Related Reading: HYPE Soars Beyond $40 Following Robinhood Listing: What’s Next For Hyperliquid’s Price? According to their analysis, Bitcoin is transitioning from a four-year cycle to a five-year cycle, with the next peak anticipated around the second quarter of 2026. This change is attributed to deeper structural shifts within the global economy.  Governments are increasingly rolling over debt for longer periods, business cycles are extending, and liquidity waves are moving through the financial system at a slower pace. One key factor pointed by the analysts influencing this lag is that when central banks cease tightening their monetary policies, it typically takes 6 to 12 months for liquidity to reach the markets.  The easing signals from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell in the third quarter of 2025, such as indications of ending balance-sheet contraction, are expected to impact markets well into early 2026, rather than having an immediate effect. Additionally, this delay is evident outside the US China’s money supply (M2) has surged to more than double that of the US and continues to expand. Historically, when China’s liquidity grows faster than that of the US, the Bitcoin price tends to rally a few months later, thereby extending the cycle into the first half of 2026.  Japan’s new Prime Minister has also initiated an economic package aimed at combating inflation, which is expected to further contribute to global liquidity.  On-Chain Data Shows Institutional Accumulation  This current cycle is also characterized by institutional accumulation rather than retail hype. Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), corporate treasuries, and funds are gradually purchasing and holding Bitcoin for extended periods.  Despite the current market conditions, retail interest in Bitcoin remains subdued, with Google Trends showing significantly lower search interest compared to 2021 levels.  This indicates that the market is currently in a phase of quiet expansion rather than widespread mania, and retail euphoria—which typically signals the end of market cycles—has yet to materialize. Related Reading: $1.7 Trillion Firm T. Rowe Price Seeks Approval For Crypto ETF Linked To Multiple Tokens On-chain data supports this mid-cycle structure, revealing that institutions continue to accumulate Bitcoin, exchange reserves are near multi-year lows, and miner selling pressure has diminished since the Halving event.  While the four-year Halving model remains relevant, the analysts assert that it is now being reshaped by macro liquidity dynamics, institutional pacing, and elongated global cycles. Consequently, the true peak of this bull run may align more closely with Q2 2026 rather than 2025. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

In one of the most striking moments of this cycle, gold has lost trillions in market capitalization, a drawdown larger than the entire value of Bitcoin itself. The metal that once symbolized stability is now showing cracks, while BTC, the asset branded as volatile, has remained remarkably resilient. What It Means For Bitcoin Next Market Cycle For decades, gold has been hailed as the ultimate safe-haven, and it has been rock-solid. However, a seasoned financial analyst, Tom Tucker, has revealed on X that Gold, the world’s oldest store of value, has lost $2.5 trillion in market value, which is more than the entire Bitcoin market capitalization.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Supercycle? Jeff Park Says Gold’s $1 Trillion Gains Could Spark It Meanwhile, the crypto Fear and Greed Index is flashing extreme fear, signaling that sentiment across digital assets is near panic levels. Tom Tucker warns that traders should stay cautious, as BTC could follow the gold path. CryptoMichNL, the CIO and Founder of MNFund and MNCapital, has observed that gold has printed a harsh move, as it corrected by more than 8% in a single day. At the same time, Bitcoin moved up massively, but later gave back most of its gains. According to CryptoMichNL, this turbulence in gold is not a lasting trend. The volatility of gold is extremely high, which is a direct consequence of its status as a massive outlier with an incredible parabolic run over recent months. If gold has indeed topped out, that would open the door for capital rotation towards other assets. However, a soft Consumer Price Index (CPI) print on the horizon should trigger the potential rate cuts and the end of the US government shutdown. Otherwise, BTC’s consolidation might start running as risk-on appetite. Why Bitcoin Will Extend Above Its Recent Consolidation Historically, Gold has seen sharp drawdowns. Senior Analyst at CoinDesk and Advisor at Coinsilium Group and ForzaBitcoin, James Van Straten, explained that the last significant gold correction took place in August 2020. On August 6, gold hit an all-time high of $2,035, only to drop 5% on August 11, and then enter a 20% correction that lasted roughly seven months.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Has Taken Gold’s Role In Today’s World, Eric Trump Says During that same period, Bitcoin was consolidating below $10,000 before surging to new highs that year, a move largely fueled by COVID-19-era stimulus, which acted as a powerful accelerant. Fast forward to today, James Van Straten believes that as BTC’s current phase is consolidating above $100,000, it may extend mid-cycle. This is due to strong parallels that gold has once again entered a significant correction, crypto liquidation events, the specter of a US government shutdown, looming rate cuts, and AI-driven capex expenditure, which continues to shape market sentiment and liquidity dynamics. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Global macro signals are flashing both warning and opportunity for Bitcoin (BTC). On one hand, major bank Standard Chartered PLC has flagged the potential for Bitcoin to dip below $100,000 in the near term. Related Reading: 16,000 Ancient Bitcoins Just Moved—And It’s Costing Whales Billions On the other hand, significant growth in global M2 money supply strengthens the backdrop for a longer-term upside. Short-Term Correction Predicted as Trade & Liquidity Risks Mount According to head of digital asset research Geoff Kendrick at Standard Chartered, Bitcoin could briefly fall under the $100,000 mark amid intensifying global risks, particularly the escalating U.S.–China trade tensions. BTC's price moving sideways on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview Although he deems the drop as temporary, Kendrick frames it as a “buying opportunity,” asserting this may be “the last time Bitcoin is EVER below” $100,000. He further points to shifts in capital flows, notably from gold into Bitcoin, as signs of rotation and deeper structural appeal. Technical indicators such as the 50-week moving average are cited as meaningful support zones, adding credence to his view that the correction may be short-lived. Bullish Macro Backdrop: M2 Growth & Institutional Flows Intact Despite the caution in the short run, the macro landscape offers supportive themes. Analysts note that global M2 money supply growth accounts for a significant portion of Bitcoin’s historical price variance, highlighting the asset’s evolving role beyond speculative crypto. As central banks continue to inject liquidity, Bitcoin’s correlation with broader money-supply trends reinforces its potential as a hedge or portfolio diversifier rather than purely a speculative vehicle. Furthermore, institutional interest and on-chain activity remain elevated, underscoring that this pull-back could be a healthy mid-cycle reset rather than a structural reversal. What This Means for Bitcoin (BTC) Investors In practical terms, investors should brace for potential near-term downside around or below $100,000 while keeping an eye on key support levels and macro catalysts. Kend­rick maintains his bullish target of $200,000 by year-end and even $500,000 by 2028, suggesting that the current dip could represent a long-term entry point. Related Reading: Last-Ever Bitcoin Dip Below $100,000 Looms This Week, Standard Chartered Warns At the same time, the market remains exposed to trade-war developments, Fed policy surprises, and liquidity shocks, factors that could trigger more substantial movement. A dip below $100K may feel ominous, but for some strategists, it could be the last major shopping window before the next leg higher. Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD on Tradingview

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has explained how Bitcoin losing $108,500 could lead to a deeper correction, if the past pattern is to go by. Bitcoin Is At Risk Of Losing The 0.85 Quantile Level In its latest weekly report, analytics firm Glassnode has talked about how Bitcoin is currently looking from the perspective of the Supply Quantiles Cost Basis model. This model maps price levels according to the amount of BTC supply that would be lost if the cryptocurrency were to trade at its current price today. There are three supply “quantiles” involved in the indicator: 0.95, 0.85, and 0.75, corresponding to levels where 5%, 15%, and 25% of the supply would be held at a loss, respectively. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Ready For A Rebound? This Metric Says More Pain Needed First Below is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the different Bitcoin supply quantiles over the last few years. As is visible in the graph, Bitcoin surged above the 0.95 quantile during its price rally earlier in the month, as the supply in profit approached the 100% mark during the new all-time high (ATH). With the recent bearish action, however, the cryptocurrency has fallen below the line and is now trading around the 0.85 quantile situated at $108,600. Thus, it would appear that about 15% of the BTC supply is in the red at the moment. Bitcoin has already faced dips below this mark, so it’s possible that the coin may be at risk of losing the line. “Historically, failure to hold this threshold has signalled structural market weakness and often preceded deeper corrections toward the 0.75 quantile,” explained the analytics firm. BTC last saw such a decline to the 0.75 quantile during the consolidation period in mid-2024. Currently, this level is equivalent to $97,500. It now remains to be seen whether the asset can maintain above the 0.85 quantile, and if not, whether a retest of the 0.75 quantile will take place. The 0.95 quantile isn’t the only level that Bitcoin has lost during the recent drawdown; its price has also dropped below the average cost basis of the short-term holders (STHs) located at $113,100. STHs here refer to the BTC investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. This group is considered to represent the fragile side of the market, prone to making panic moves during times of volatility. With BTC dropping below the cost basis of the cohort, its members are now underwater. “Historically, this structure often precedes the onset of a mid-term bearish phase, as weaker hands begin to capitulate,” noted Glassnode. Related Reading: Bitcoin Cycle Top Still Not In, Suggests NVT Golden Cross In an X post, the analytics firm has shared a chart that puts into perspective the net unrealized loss held by the Bitcoin STHs right now. BTC Price Bitcoin hasn’t been able to sustain a recovery recently as its price is still trading around $109,100. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is showing signs of renewed weakness as short-term investors begin to fold under selling pressure. According to the latest data from CryptoQuant, the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) has fallen to 0.992, its lowest level since late April. This key on-chain metric tracks the average profit or loss realized by Bitcoin holders who have owned their coins for less than 155 days — a group often associated with speculative or reactive behavior. Related Reading: Kadena Shuts Down Operations – Team Confirms Immediate Cease Of All Activities When the STH-SOPR dips below 1.0, it indicates that these holders are selling their coins at a loss, signaling a wave of capitulation and rising fear among newer market participants. The current value implies an average loss of 0.8%, reflecting a notable shift in sentiment after weeks of volatile price action. Historically, such phases of short-term capitulation often mark moments of emotional exhaustion, where retail traders give up amid uncertainty. While this can reinforce short-term bearish pressure, it also tends to precede market stabilization — as weaker hands exit and long-term investors absorb supply. Bitcoin STH-SOPR Signals Short-Term Weakness and Long-Term Opportunity According to CryptoOnchain’s latest insights shared on CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) remains below the crucial 1.0 threshold, reinforcing a bearish short-term outlook. As long as both the STH-SOPR and its 14-day moving average stay under this key level, the indicator acts as a form of resistance — reflecting that short-term holders continue selling at a loss. In such conditions, every price rally risks being met with renewed selling pressure, as these investors look to exit positions at break-even or with minimal loss, creating a ceiling for upward momentum. However, this same behavior can also plant the seeds for a long-term bullish setup. Historically, extended periods of loss realization by short-term holders have coincided with the final stages of market corrections. This process — often described as a “cleansing” phase — shakes out weak hands and redistributes Bitcoin to long-term holders who are less sensitive to short-term volatility. When capitulation reaches its peak, it often signals the market is approaching “maximum pain”, a point that tends to precede strong recoveries. While Bitcoin’s current structure suggests ongoing weakness, this phase could also mark the foundation of the next uptrend. Traders should closely monitor the STH-SOPR for a decisive reclaim above 1.0, as that would confirm a shift from loss-driven selling to profit realization — signaling renewed market strength and the potential start of a new bullish phase. Related Reading: Bitcoin Trapped On Binance: The Battle Between $107K and $119K Heats Up  Bears Defend Resistance, Bulls Struggle to Reclaim Momentum Bitcoin is currently trading around $109,400, showing a modest rebound but still facing strong resistance at higher levels. As seen in the 1-day chart, BTC remains trapped below both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, which are now converging near $112,000–$114,000 — a zone that has repeatedly acted as supply during recent recoveries. The 200-day moving average, positioned around $106,000, continues to provide short-term support. However, the repeated retests of this level suggest weakening buyer strength. The inability to sustain a close above $110,000 highlights persistent selling pressure, with traders preferring to de-risk amid broader market uncertainty. Related Reading: Hyperliquid Futures Indicator Signals Whales Are Going Long – Details If Bitcoin manages to reclaim $112,000, momentum could shift toward $117,500, the key horizontal resistance and previous range high. A decisive breakout above this level would invalidate the recent bearish structure and open the path toward $123,000. On the downside, failure to hold the $106,000–$107,000 support range could expose BTC to further downside risk, with potential targets near $102,000 or even $98,000 if selling accelerates. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin supply in profit has seen a sharp decline amid the latest crypto market crash. This has raised concerns that BTC could suffer a further crash, as holders who are in the red may move to offload their coins.  Bitcoin Supply In Profit Drops Amid Market Crash On-chain analytics platform Glassnode revealed in a report that the Bitcoin supply in profit has historically dropped to around 85%, with 15% of the supply sitting at a loss. This has occurred whenever the BTC price breaks down from a new all-time high (ATH) and trades around the short-term holders’ cost basis, as is happening now.  Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Supercycle Still In Play? Wave 3 Tells A Story Of A Surge Glassnode noted that this marks a pivotal phase for Bitcoin, as this is where the market tests the conviction of investors who had bought near recent highs. This pattern is said to be playing out for the third time in this current cycle. The on-chain analytics platform warned that if BTC fails to recover above the $113,100 range, a deeper contraction could send a larger share of the Bitcoin supply into loss.  Glassnode further stated that this deeper contraction could amplify the stress among recent Bitcoin buyers, which could set the stage for a broader capitulation across the market. The platform also alluded to the Supply Quantile Cost Basis to explain why it is essential for BTC to reclaim the short-term holders’ cost basis above $113,000.  Bitcoin is said to be struggling to hold above the 0.85 quantile at $108,600. Failure to hold this has historically indicated structural market weakness and often preceded deeper corrections toward the 0.75 quantile, which now aligns near $97,500. This puts BTC at risk of dropping below $100,000 for the first time since May.  A Longer Consolidation Phase May Be Necessary Glassnode stated that from a macro perspective, the repeated demand exhaustion suggests that Bitcoin may require a longer consolidation phase to rebuild strength. This exhaustion is said to be clearer with the Long-Term Holder Spend Volume. These long-term holders have increased their spending with the 30D-SMA rising from the 10,000 BTC baseline to over 22,000 BTC daily since the market peak in July.  Related Reading: Is Bitcoin About To See A Repeat Of 2020-2021? What Happened After The Last Flash Crash Glassnode noted that such persistent distribution indicates profit-taking from seasoned investors, which has contributed to the current Bitcoin weakness. Bitcoin OGs have continued to offload their coins at an unprecedented rate, putting significant selling pressure on BTC. Onchain Lens recently revealed that a particular whale moved 3,003 BTC to Binance, likely in a bid to sell, while also shorting BTC with a position worth $227 million. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $108,800, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin hovered near the mid-$100,000s on Thursday, Oct. 23, as Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research Geoffrey Kendrick warned that a move below $100,000 by this weekend “seems inevitable”—while adding that any break could be fleeting the last last time bitcoin is ever below six figures. The remarks, delivered in a mid-week client note and shared by The Block, frame a tactical pullback inside a still-intact macro bull thesis the bank has championed for months. Last-Ever Bitcoin Dip Under $100,000 Ahead Kendrick’s message juxtaposes near-term caution with longer-term conviction. In the same research cycle where Standard Chartered reiterated a target of $200,000 by year-end—hinging on ETF demand, corporate treasury uptake, and a friendlier policy backdrop—the strategist has now flagged an air-pocket toward sub-$100,000 as the market digests October’s sell-off and a tepid bounce. “A decline below $100,000 now appears ‘inevitable,’” Kendrick said on Wednesday, while stressing that any dip should be short-lived and likely the “last-ever chance to buy BTC for less than six figures.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Cycle Top Still Not In, Suggests NVT Golden Cross The recalibration follows an early-October swing that saw bitcoin fail to hold above its recent local high—Kendrick cited the Oct. 10 risk-off break and the absence of a strong reflex rally—shifting the bank’s focus to where the market bottoms rather than whether it immediately resumes trend. In the latest note, Kendrick pointed to a handful of signposts for a base-building phase, including monitoring capital rotation between gold and bitcoin and the trajectory of US dollar liquidity and quantitative tightening. He also observed that bitcoin has respected its 50-week moving average since early 2023, a level he views as an important longer-duration line in the sand. The near-term crosscurrents complicate, but do not upend, Standard Chartered’s cycle map. As recently as July 2, the bank told clients it expected the largest dollar rally on record in the second half of 2025, with bitcoin at $200,000 by Dec. 31. That framing—ETF inflows, corporate balance-sheet adoption, and regulatory normalization as the dominant drivers—remains the core of Kendrick’s upside case, even as he concedes that a brief trip under $100,000 is now probable. “The decline could mark the last time to ever buy BTC for six figures,” the latest dispatch emphasized. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Crash 50%, Pushing MSTR ‘Underwater,’ Legendary Trader Warns Market context is aligned with the cautionary near-term tone. Over the past two weeks, bitcoin has shed roughly ten percent, with spot trading today around $108,000 as liquidity thins into the weekend and macro sensitivity to policy headlines remains elevated. What matters from here is whether the confirmation signals Kendrick highlighted begin to line up. A decisive improvement in dollar liquidity conditions, sustained evidence of rotation back into bitcoin at the expense of gold, and preservation of higher-timeframe trend structures would validate the “last time below $100,000” claim. Absent those, a deeper retracement cannot be ruled out, but that scenario would represent a deviation from the bank’s published roadmap rather than its base case. For now, Standard Chartered’s message is unambiguous: brace for a dip under six figures, but treat it—quoting Kendrick directly—as “the last-ever chance to buy BTC for less than six figures,” provided the medium-term catalysts reassert. At press time, BTC traded at $109,953. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

According to comments from the creator of the stock-to-flow model, the familiar four-year cycle tied to Bitcoin halvings may no longer be a sure guide for traders. Related Reading: You Want $1K XRP? You’ll Need Iron Nerves — Or ‘Mental Illness’, Analyst Says The analyst — known as PlanB — warned that using just three past cycles to predict future tops is risky, and he said the next peak is not guaranteed to fall 18 months after the last halving in October. Cycle Timing May Vary Widely PlanB told followers that the top could arrive in 2026, or 2027, or even 2028, and that he is more focused on Bitcoin’s average price level than on a single high or low. Reports have disclosed that some market participants believe $126,000 was the peak and expect BTC to slide below $100,000 next year. PlanB called that view “a big misunderstanding,” arguing that three cycles do not form a strong statistical pattern. Bears think $126k was the top, and btc will fall below $100k, and 2026 will be a bear market mainly because … the 4 year cycle!? IMO that is a BIG misunderstanding. Yes, there is a 4y halving cycle that doubles S2F-ratio, and 6 months before until 18 months after a halving was… pic.twitter.com/tehnZ4rRab — PlanB (@100trillionUSD) October 20, 2025 Spot Versus Paper Liquidity According to some experts, the last bull run’s top was driven largely by short-term liquidity in paper derivative markets. Based on reports, they see less of that paper-driven liquidity this cycle, while longer-term spot buying has held up so far. That shift could mean the next major move in price will come from different places than before. Trader Sentiment Shifts With Price Moves Reports show Bitcoin briefly fell below $103,000 last week, sparking worries that a bear market had started. Analysts noted that sentiment changed quickly — traders were hoping for a bounce so they could exit at a decent level. Recent action has been bouncy. Bitcoin dropped more than 3% over a few hours on Tuesday morning Asian trading, slipping to about $107,000 before finding support near $108,000. No Clear Phase Transition Yet PlanB said he has not seen a clear “phase transition” for Bitcoin in this cycle. That means either the big institutional-driven jump is still ahead, or the market has moved toward a steadier price regime shaped by funds, mandates, and rebalancing. Both possibilities, he argued, could be positive for Bitcoin over time because they imply different forms of lasting demand. Related Reading: The XRP Shockwave Will Hit When No One’s Watching—Analyst Short-term volatility has kept traders on edge. Even when price recovers, the mood can flip fast. Based on reports, crypto markets still need stronger fundamentals or sustained flows to calm nerves and push prices higher for a longer stretch. Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView

On-chain data shows the loss margin of Bitcoin traders is only halfway through the way to the boundary that signaled rebounds in the last two years. Bitcoin Traders Are About 5% Underwater At The Moment In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about how Bitcoin tends to rebound when the Profit/Loss Margin of the Bitcoin traders falls under -12%. The Profit/Loss Margin refers to an indicator that measures the net amount of profit or loss that the BTC investors are carrying right now. The metric works by going through the transaction history of each coin on the blockchain to see what price it was last moved at. If this previous price for any token was less than the current spot price, then it’s considered to be carrying a profit equal to the difference between the two prices. Similarly, tokens of the opposite type fall into the loss category. The Profit/Loss Margin calculates the net unrealized profit or loss (as a percentage) that investors as a whole are carrying. In the context of the current topic, the version of the metric that’s of interest specifically tracks this margin for the “traders,” investors who have been holding their coins since between 1 and 3 months ago. Related Reading: Bitcoin Cycle Top Still Not In, Suggests NVT Golden Cross Now, here is the chart shared by Martinez that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Profit/Loss Margin of the traders, as well as its 30-day simple moving average (SMA), over the last couple of years: As is visible in the above graph, the Profit/Loss Margin of the Bitcoin traders has witnessed a plunge into the negative territory recently as BTC’s price has gone through its bearish action. Currently, the 1 to 3 months old BTC buyers are sitting about 5% underwater. The analyst has pointed out that BTC has tended to find rebounds when these holders have been under a notable amount of pressure during the last two years. The cutoff for this distress threshold, however, lies at -12%, a level that the trader Profit/Loss Margin is still to breach under. Related Reading: Bitcoin Newbie Whales Now Sitting On $6.9 Billion In Losses, Most Since 2023 It now remains to be seen whether Bitcoin will be able to find a bottom in the near future, or if one will only happen after traders experience a similar degree of pain as the previous lows. In another X post, Martinez has highlighted that $119,750 could be a crucial mark for Bitcoin to reclaim, as it represents a key resistance level in the MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands, a pricing model for BTC based on standard deviations of the popular MVRV Ratio. “Failing to reclaim it could trigger a move down to $97,130 or even $74,500,” noted the analyst. BTC Price Bitcoin’s latest recovery was quite short-lived as its value is already back to $108,000. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com