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Bitcoin’s demand backdrop has weakened sharply, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, who said an on-chain gauge of apparent demand has fallen to its most bearish reading of the year. Darkfost, posting on X under the handle @Darkfost_Coc, shared a CryptoQuant chart showing Bitcoin Apparent Demand on a 30-day sum basis falling deep into negative territory. The analyst said the metric is now approaching minus 147,000 BTC, marking its weakest level since the beginning of 2026. “Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand has just reached its most negative level since the beginning of the year,” Darkfost wrote. “With an estimate now approaching -147,000 BTC, we have to go back to December 2025 to find market sentiment this bearish.” Apparent Demand Turns Deeply Negative The chart tracks Bitcoin’s apparent demand alongside price, showing a transition from strongly positive readings through parts of mid-2025 to prolonged negative demand in late 2025 and again in 2026. The latest drop is notable because it comes after Bitcoin’s price recovered from its early-2026 lows, suggesting that the rebound has not been matched by a clear improvement in structural spot demand. Related Reading: Bitcoin LTH Supply Surge Does Not Reflect Real Demand — Here’s Why Darkfost described Apparent Demand as “the difference between new BTC issuance and the amount of supply that has remained inactive for more than one year.” In practical terms, the metric is intended to assess whether accumulation from longer-term holders is strong enough to absorb newly issued Bitcoin. “In other words, this metric helps estimate whether structural accumulation is strong enough to absorb the new supply created by the network,” the analyst wrote. That interpretation frames the current reading as more than a short-term sentiment gauge. If apparent demand is deeply negative, it suggests that the market is not showing enough underlying absorption to offset issuance and support a more stable bullish phase. Futures Momentum Faces A Spot Demand Problem Darkfost’s core argument is that Bitcoin’s rally structure may be vulnerable if derivatives activity is doing too much of the work. Futures markets can push price higher, accelerate liquidations and amplify directional moves, but they do not necessarily represent durable accumulation. “This development suggests that demand continues to gradually contract,” Darkfost said. “Without a meaningful recovery in spot demand, it becomes difficult to imagine Bitcoin sustaining a durable rally purely through the momentum driven by futures markets.” Related Reading: Glassnode Says Bitcoin Options Traders Are Still Positioned For Trouble The point is especially relevant in a market where price can move quickly on leverage, positioning and liquidity shifts. A futures-led move may still produce sharp upside, but Darkfost argued that sustained bullish phases generally require a firmer spot foundation. “Futures can support short term momentum and amplify price movements,” the analyst wrote, “but sustainable bullish phases generally require genuine spot demand, as derivatives alone do not allow the market to build a stable and solid foundation.” Bearish Signal, Long-Term Setup? The analyst did not frame the latest reading as purely negative. While the short-term implication is bearish, Darkfost noted that heavily pessimistic demand environments have historically been worth monitoring for long-term investors. “That said, even if this situation appears relatively bearish in the short term, these types of environments have historically also created interesting opportunities for long term investors capable of remaining patient,” the analyst wrote. At press time, BTC traded at $77,300. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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The price of Bitcoin seemed set for another round of pain over the weekend after falling below the psychological $75,000 level on Saturday morning. However, the premier cryptocurrency has somewhat recovered and is looking to reclaim $77,000 as of this writing. At the same time, an increase in the supply of Bitcoin’s long-term investors was also observed on the day, although the signal might not be what it seems. Here’s Why BTC LTH Supply Data Is Skewed In a recent post on the X platform, pseudonymous analyst Darkfost revealed a surge in the Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders (LTH) over the past few days. However, this supposed rise in LTH activity might not be as relevant to BTC’s growth as the data would ordinarily suggest. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Thesis Goes Big: 39 Trillion Reasons To Buy, Says Gemini Founder Highlighting data from CryptoQuant, Darkfost shared that the long-term holder supply has increased from 15 million to 15.8 million BTC over the past two days. The on-chain analyst noted that this metric is among the numerous data points affected by Coinbase’s movement of roughly 800,000 BTC in November 2025. Between November 22nd and 23rd, the US-domiciled crypto exchange shuffled 800,000 BTC (worth nearly $70 billion, at the time) between its internal wallets. As Darkfost mentioned, this maintenance transfer destroyed old LTH UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs) and created new but skewed Bitcoin datasets. The crypto analyst wrote on X: As a result, datasets across multiple platforms incorporated this movement, affecting UTXO-based metrics, age and value cohorts, STH/LTH cost basis, realized value, volumes, and more. Saturday, May 23rd marked six months since the Bitcoin transfer, with the moved BTC now fully transitioned from the short-term holder (STH) to the long-term holder supply. Typically, an increase in LTH supply signals increased accumulation and a growing conviction among the most seasoned crypto investors. However, market participants might want to exercise caution when making decisions with this on-chain signal, considering that it does truly reflect an increase in investor demand. What’s Next For Bitcoin Price? In a separate post on the X platform, Darkfost identified the next major resistance level for the Bitcoin price. Highlighting the STH cost basis, the analyst said that this resistance currently sits just above the $80,000 mark. According to Darkfost, the short-term investors seem to be choosing to cut their losses rather than holding for a reversal, as evidenced by resistance the Bitcoin price faces at their average cost basis. Hence, the premier cryptocurrency needs a sustained break above the $80,000 ceiling for its recovery journey to continue. As of this writing, BTC is valued at around $76,490, reflecting a 1% price increase in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: What The Bitcoin Transaction Volume Crashing Could Do To The Price Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
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Bitcoin is showing increasing signs of weakness as bearish pressure continues building below a critical technical level. With key support zones now under threat and reversal patterns beginning to take shape, BTC could be entering a decisive pullback phase that may determine the market’s next major direction. Buyers Continue Losing Momentum As Decline Deepens Crypto analyst Kamile Uray stated that Bitcoin buyers continue to appear weak as the market faces another wave of downside pressure. The analyst explained that if BTC breaks below the key bottom at $74,929, it could confirm the completion of the final shoulder in a developing OBO structure while remaining under the previous low near $76,044. Related Reading: Bitcoin Upper Trendline Resistance Is Holding Price Back, Can It Push It Below $60,000? Analyst Answers Unless Bitcoin can achieve a decisive 4-hour candle close above $78,213, the bearish trend is likely to continue. A sustained breakdown below $74,929 could open the door for a deeper decline toward the $71,000–$68,000 region, which has been identified as a major Fibonacci support zone. Kamile Uray further explained that if stronger buying momentum eventually emerges from those lower levels, Bitcoin could attempt another recovery rally. During any upside move, the market would need to overcome resistance around $98,000, followed by the larger resistance region between $107,000 and $109,000. However, if Bitcoin struggles to maintain strength above the recent peak near $126,199, the risk of another major corrective phase would remain active. In the case of a much deeper decline, Kamile Uray emphasized that the $60,000 level stands out as a critical long-term support area that could play a major role in future market direction. Bitcoin Bullish Reversal Structure Begins Turning Bearish Another crypto analyst Merry__PT has noted that Bitcoin’s recent price action is undergoing a significant structural shift. While the market initially formed a recognizable W bottom, a classic signal of a bullish reversal, this structure is now evolving into a Head and Shoulders top, which is historically viewed as a symbol of a bearish reversal. Related Reading: Bitcoin Uptrend Remains Alive Despite Bearish Pressure Below $78,800 The most critical technical element to monitor moving forward is the blue horizontal base neckline. This support zone is acting as the foundation for both the current structure and the potential for a larger trend shift. Once this neckline is clearly defined and widely acknowledged by market participants, the Head and Shoulders formation will gain significant validity. If the price confirms a breach below this level, the pattern is likely to transition from a mere technical observation into a genuine catalyst for a sustained pullback. Beyond this structural pivot, the upcoming monthly candle close is key, acting as a pivotal axis for gauging future sentiment and market direction. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
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Bitcoin’s transaction volume is falling alongside its price. At first glance, that sounds bearish because weak activity is usually a result of weak demand, lower participation, and a lack of momentum. However, technical analysis shows the historical pattern conveys a more complicated story. Technical analysis from CryptoCon shows Bitcoin’s transaction volume strength falling close to the green low-volume band that indicated previous cycle bottoms. The falling transaction volume is also a good thing for traders looking for the cycle bottom. Bitcoin Transaction Volume Falling Into Bottoming Zone Technical analysis of Bitcoin’s volume shows that the transaction volume strength indicator, which tracks the relative weight of Bitcoin’s on-chain transaction activity against its price history, is compressing toward the low-volume zone that has reliably marked the end of bear markets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Breaks 14-Year Support For The First Time In History, Analyst Predicts $50,000 Target As shown in the green band at the bottom of the chart below, which is labeled as the low transaction volume area, prior crosses into this region were followed closely by important bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022. That is why the current decline in transaction volume cannot be read only as a negative signal. Heavy transaction activity often appears closer to cycle tops, when the market is crowded. Examples of these are shown in the chart below in 2017, 2021, and 2025. Low transaction volume, on the other hand, tends to appear when interest has faded, which is a good sign. However, according to crypto analyst CryptoCon, Bitcoin is not quite in cycle bottom territory, and the difference does matter. In 2014, it spent 10 months at these same levels in the channel. The issue is that “close” is not the same as “confirmed.” Bitcoin may be entering the part of the cycle where sellers are getting tired, but the data does not yet show the kind of final reset in previous long-term bottoms. What This Could Do To The Bitcoin Price The immediate implication is that the Bitcoin price may stay vulnerable in the short term. There are also other data points converging in that direction, but they have not yet aligned. For instance, the MVRV Z-Score, a metric that has always marked cycle tops and bottoms, shows that the bottom is not in yet. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Playbook To Know: Step 4 Says A Crash Is Coming, But Where’s The Bottom? When the price is falling, and transaction volume is also shrinking, it often shows that buyers are not yet stepping in with enough force to reverse the trend. This lines up with recent market developments, with Bitcoin down by 3.7% in the past 24 hours and trading at $74,520 at the time of writing. First, the Bitcoin price may continue to lower or remain under pressure. Then, once transaction volume reaches the deeper low-volume band and stays there long enough to confirm exhaustion, the setup could begin to look more like a cycle bottom within one month. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
The Winklevoss twins donated $21 million worth of Bitcoin to a political action committee supporting US President Donald Trump’s re-election campaign, underscoring just how deeply committed the Gemini co-founders are to the cryptocurrency’s future. Related Reading: Bitcoin Treasury Company Nakamoto Takes Action To Prevent Stock Slide A Debt Clock That Never Stops That political move now sits alongside a fresh statement from Cameron Winklevoss, who took to X on May 22 to declare there are “39 trillion reasons to buy Bitcoin.” He was pointing directly at the US national debt, which has climbed to over $39 trillion. The remark was brief. The implication was not. 39 trillion reasons to buy bitcoin https://t.co/0E2OvKkNKu — Cameron Winklevoss (@cameron) May 22, 2026 A Fixed Supply Against A Growing Debt Cameron and his brother Tyler have long argued that Bitcoin’s hard cap of 21 million coins makes it a natural hedge against governments that keep spending beyond their means. They call it “gold 2.0,” and they believe that if Bitcoin ever displaces gold as the world’s go-to store of value, the price could eventually hit $1 million. Cameron has a history of flagging what he sees as prime buying moments. When Bitcoin fell below $90,000 late last year, he told his more than 700,000 followers on X that it was a final chance to buy before a rebound. The rebound did not come as expected — Bitcoin slid further and now trades around $74,000. The Debt Argument Gains Ground Across The Industry Cameron is not the only prominent voice tying the national debt to the case for Bitcoin. Jim Cramer urged Americans last year to consider cryptocurrencies as the debt climbed to $37.63 trillion, a point when the National Debt Clock in New York showed each American family carrying a burden of nearly $955,708. Michael Saylor and Anthony Pompliano have made similar arguments, repeatedly framing Bitcoin as a shield against economic uncertainty and ballooning government obligations. The idea is straightforward: as government debt grows and the purchasing power of fiat currencies shrinks, an asset with a fixed supply becomes harder to ignore. Related Reading: New Bitcoin Lows? Analysts Say Chances Are ‘Extremely Slim’ Loud Voices, Clear Interests Gemini is a cryptocurrency exchange, and the Winklevoss brothers have built their business around Bitcoin adoption. Their advocacy and their financial interests run in the same direction. Cameron’s latest post adds one more data point to a narrative the crypto industry has been building for years — that the national debt is not just an economic problem but an argument for holding Bitcoin. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
Six straight days of outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs — totaling $1.26 billion — are drawing attention not for the losses they represent, but for what history suggests might come next. What The Data Shows Blockchain analytics firm Santiment says these outflows should be read as a counter-signal rather than a warning. According to the firm, ETF flows reflect retail investor behavior more than institutional positioning, which means sustained outflows tend to mark bottoms rather than the start of deeper slides. Related Reading: New Bitcoin Lows? Analysts Say Chances Are ‘Extremely Slim’ Santiment pointed to a consistent pattern: large inflow spikes have historically landed near price tops, while heavy outflow periods have lined up with buying opportunities. The numbers support the argument. On July 10, 2025, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.18 billion in inflows — a period that coincided with a local price top. October 6, 2025 brought $1.21 billion in inflows, and prices peaked around the same time. On the other side, $903 million in outflows hit on November 20, 2025, a moment that proved well-timed for buyers. Based on this track record, Santiment says the current outflow streak fits the same mold — retail investors cutting exposure after Bitcoin failed to hold $80,000 in May, hitting a high of $79,050 on May 16 before pulling back. Retail Fear, Not Institutional Exit Bitcoin was trading at $75,400 when Santiment published its report on Friday, May 22. The firm described the current climate as the highest level of market fear seen in more than 3.5 months. Rather than treating that as cause for alarm, Santiment framed it as a familiar setup — retail capitulation that has historically reset conditions ahead of recoveries. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows across each of the six trading sessions from May 15 through May 22, according to Farside Investors data. The 11 funds tracked collectively posted $1.26 billion in net outflows during just five of those sessions. On May 22 alone, total net outflows came to $105 million, according to SoSoValue data, extending the outflow streak to six consecutive days. Related Reading: Bitcoin Treasury Company Nakamoto Takes Action To Prevent Stock Slide ETF Analyst Sees Recovery Ahead ETF analyst James Seyffart offered a separate reason for optimism. Speaking on a podcast, Seyffart noted that total Bitcoin ETF inflows are approaching their all-time high of $60 billion and that most of the $9 billion in outflows recorded between October and February has since been recouped. He expects the all-time inflow record to break in the near term. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Crypto analyst Chain Mind has indicated that the Bitcoin price has yet to bottom. He alluded to historical performance, which shows that BTC has never bottomed without touching the EMA 300. Bitcoin Price Unlikely To Bottom Before Touching This Level In an X post, Chain Mind indicated that the Bitcoin price is unlikely to bottom out without first touching the EMA300. He noted that BTC has never bottomed without touching this level, as it did in 2020 and 2022, when it tagged the weekly EMA300 right before the cycle low. Specifically, Bitcoin’s bottom came 10% below the EMA in 2020 and 15% in 2022. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is Repeating This Midterm Pattern That Sends Price Tumbling 15% On Average The analyst noted that in this cycle, the Bitcoin price bounced from $60,000 without ever reaching the EMA, suggesting the real bottom isn’t in. He added that if the pattern repeats, BTC must drop to around $58,000, marking the last bottom in this bear cycle. In another X post, the analyst indicated that BTC was mirroring the price action during the 2022 bear market. This came as he revealed that the Bitcoin price had just rejected the 200MA, a move that also occurred in 2022. He explained that this confirms the bearish macro structure after BTC tagged the 200D MA again at $82,000. As such, if the 2022 pattern repeats, the leading crypto must drop 40% to 60% from the rejection point. He added that this means that the real cycle bottom must be around the $50,000 to $55,000 range. Bitcoin is once again in a downtrend after failing to hold above the psychological $80,000 level. This comes amid bearish catalysts such as the US-Iran war, rising inflation, and bets of a Fed rate hike this year. BTC’s latest decline came after the SEC delayed its approval of tokenized stocks. The Plan Remains The Same For BTC Crypto analyst Kaleo declared that the plan remains the same for the Bitcoin price despite traders on Kalshi betting against a rally to $100,000 this year. He urged market participants to zoom out and be more bullish. As for what could happen, he predicts a retest in the lower $70,000 range, then a rebound to between $80,000 and $90,000, and a range there for the summer. Related Reading: If You’re Looking To Bitcoin Above $90,000, This Analyst Says To Watch This Bearish OB Level Once that happens, the analyst predicts that the Bitcoin price will then rally above $100,000 and reach a new all-time high (ATH) in the fall and winter. Notably, the CLARITY Act could pass between now and then, which could spark a massive rally for the leading crypto. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $75,400, down over 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds have seen more than $2.26 billion in outflows over the past two weeks.
After a steep downturn in early February, the Bitcoin price saw a significant turnaround over the following two months. While the month of May initially continued on this positive note, the premier cryptocurrency seems to have cooled off over the past week — aligning with BTC’s track record of not registering three consecutive months of positive price action during a bear-market year. Interestingly, recent on-chain observations suggest that trouble might be brewing for the Bitcoin price, at least in the near term. Could The Bears Take Over The Bitcoin Market Again? In a new post on the X platform, crypto analytics firm Bitcoin Vector explained that the current waning bullish momentum might be a more damning signal for Bitcoin than it is perceived to be. According to the market intelligence firm, BTC’s price momentum doesn’t have to turn deeply negative before investors pay attention. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Breaks 14-Year Support For The First Time In History, Analyst Predicts $50,000 Target Bitcoin Vector highlighted that the Glassnode momentum indicator, which measures the speed and strength of price movements (in a specific direction) within a period, has witnessed a sharp downturn in recent days. The analytics platform noted that while the focus would be on the momentum turning negative, the +0.5 mark is the level to watch. According to Bitcoin Vector’s analysis, price momentum crossing below +0.5 is the first signal that the upward trend might be fading and sellers might be overtaking the market. The analytics firm revealed that the last two times the flagship cryptocurrency lost this critical level, the BTC price structure shifted. Those last two times include: October 2025, when the Bitcoin price suddenly crashed to just above $100,000, and February 2026, when the market leader fell to around $62,000. Bitcoin Vector noted that these moves were characterized by a weakened spot CVD (cumulative volume delta), a return of seller control, and a deteriorating price structure. Recent on-chain data show that price momentum remains above +0.5 — albeit at around +0.7. “But if it loses that level while Spot CVD keeps weakening, caution rises fast. That would be the first signal that deterioration is starting beneath the surface,” Bitcoin concluded. Ultimately, the world’s largest cryptocurrency seems to be at a critical juncture, with the waning price momentum potentially signaling what is to come over the next few weeks. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, BTC is valued at around $75,950, reflecting an over 2% price decline in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Bitcoin Upper Trendline Resistance Is Holding Price Back, Can It Push It Below $60,000? Analyst Answers Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
A crypto founder and pundit recently took to the social media platform X to highlight a notable divergence between the Ethereum and Bitcoin markets. According to the analyst, the world’s leading cryptocurrencies could be nearing levels that would soon reverse their current price trajectories. Bitcoin In High-Pressure Environment As Ethereum Market Leans Neutral In a May 22nd post on the X platform, Alphractal founder and CEO Joao Wedson revealed that the Bitcoin market is currently in a state where its return efficiency is weakening relative to short-term risks. This observation is based on the negative readings on Bitcoin’s annualized Sharpe Ratio. For context, the Sharpe ratio measures how much extra return an asset (in this case, Bitcoin) generates relative to the additional risk it entails. Higher readings typically suggest stronger risk-adjusted performance, while a negative reading indicates that investors are transacting without worthwhile rewards on the table. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Consolidates Near Lows As Market Searches For Direction Wedson noted that, while Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio is within negative bounds, Ethereum’s stands quite close to the zero mark — a sign that the market is on almost neutral grounds sentiment-wise. In this scenario, Ethereum is neither offering strong risk-adjusted returns nor signaling extreme deterioration. Current Conditions Similar To Historical Price Bottom Precedents: Analyst While present conditions within the Bitcoin and Ethereum markets are essentially short-term, Wedson highlighted what their simultaneous prolongation would signal. According to the market pundit, extended stretches below zero have frequently coincided with several of Bitcoin’s weakest periods in terms of return-versus-risk. However, these phases have historically emerged near price bottoms. This is often where bearish sentiment, panic selling, and investor exhaustion become widespread, setting the path for new bullish pressure to eventually overcome the bears. Nonetheless, the Alphractal founder mentioned as a caveat that the current conditions do not confirm that a bottom will be established. Instead, it merely highlights that the cryptocurrency market might soon enter zones typically associated with elevated pessimism, low reward potential, and risk stress. It is this type of highly pessimistic environment that often develops before major trend reversals play out. Until clear confirmations have thus been identified, investors and other market participants are advised to act with caution. As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at approximately $75,642, down by 2.5% in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the price of ETH stands at around $2,060, reflecting an over 3.2% in the past day. Related Reading: Solana Vs Ethereum: What’s Holding Growth Back? 3 Reasons SOL Is Still Lagging Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin’s drop back below $78,000 after a rejection near recent local range highs has left options traders positioned cautiously, according to new data shared by Glassnode. The firm said the options market continues to show compressed volatility expectations, elevated downside hedging demand, and a gamma structure that could amplify weakness if BTC moves toward the mid-$75,000 area. The move follows a failed attempt to hold near the upper end of the recent local range. While spot price action has softened, Glassnode’s thread focused on what derivatives positioning suggests beneath the surface: traders are still paying up for protection rather than aggressively chasing upside. “BTC broke back below $78K after being rejected near the recent local range highs,” Glassnode wrote. “Here’s what BTC options data shows on positioning, volatility expectations, and sentiment beneath the surface.” Bitcoin Options Traders Stay Defensive One of the clearest signals came from implied volatility. Glassnode said BTC implied volatility resumed its decline after a short-lived rebound earlier in the week. One-week implied volatility now sits near 31%, down from 39% earlier this week, while longer-dated implied volatility also moved slightly lower. The implication is that the market is not yet pricing a disorderly breakout in either direction, even as downside hedging remains elevated. “The market is pricing a quieter near term environment again,” Glassnode said. Related Reading: Bitcoin $78,000 Rebound Fizzles As Coinbase Premium Stays Red That calm, however, is not the same as bullish positioning. Glassnode said 25-delta skew remains “firmly in put territory” after the rejection near $82,000. One-week skew briefly touched 24% before easing, a sign that puts continued to trade at a strong premium to calls. “Traders continue to favor downside protection,” the firm wrote. The same caution appeared in Glassnode’s skew index ratio, which compares upside and downside implied volatility. Most tenors remain below 1, meaning puts are richer than calls. The exception is the six-month tenor, where the ratio still shows a call premium, suggesting that longer-dated upside demand has not disappeared entirely. Nearer-term positioning is more defensive. Glassnode said upside demand remains limited outside longer-dated structures, while the broader options surface continues to show investors seeking protection against further downside. Realized and implied volatility are also diverging. One-month realized volatility has fallen toward 27%, while one-month implied volatility remains closer to 35%. That leaves the volatility risk premium near recent highs, according to Glassnode. “Options still price more movement than BTC has recently delivered,” the firm said. The gamma profile adds another layer of risk. Glassnode identified a large short gamma cluster near $75,000, with roughly $3.2 billion of negative exposure below spot. In options markets, short gamma positioning can force dealers to hedge in ways that reinforce spot moves, potentially increasing volatility if price approaches key levels. Related Reading: Wintermute Says Bitcoin Rally Was A Squeeze, Low $70,000s Loom At the same time, positive gamma clusters near $78,000 and $80,000 may act as resistance. That setup leaves Bitcoin boxed between nearby upside friction and a lower zone where downside movement could accelerate. “This structure can accelerate downside volatility near 75K,” Glassnode wrote. Flows over the past week also leaned defensive. Put buying slightly led the tape, representing 25% of premium, while calls bought also accounted for 25%. Call selling remained elevated at 25.7% of flow, reinforcing the picture of muted upside appetite. Glassnode’s conclusion was direct: front-end implied volatility keeps compressing, the volatility spread is widening, skew remains in put territory, only the six-month skew index ratio shows a call premium, flows lean defensive, and a short gamma acceleration zone sits below spot. For traders, the takeaway is less about outright panic than asymmetry. Bitcoin options are not pricing a major volatility expansion in the immediate term, but the market is still paying for downside protection and showing limited confidence in near-term upside. Unless spot can reclaim the nearby resistance zones around $78,000 and $80,000, the options market appears positioned for continued caution. At press time, BTC traded at $76,744. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin derivatives traders are moving back into the market after an eight-month deleveraging phase, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, with Binance futures open interest now back above its 180-day moving average. The shift suggests risk appetite is returning after one of the longest reductions in leveraged exposure since the 2022 bear market. Bitcoin Traders Are Returning Darkfost said the deleveraging period began after the October 10 event, as Bitcoin’s correction coincided with a worsening global macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop. In that environment, traders reduced exposure across derivatives markets, with Binance futures activity showing a sustained contraction. “Since the October 10 event, Bitcoin has gone through a prolonged deleveraging phase across derivatives markets, represented here through Binance futures activity,” Darkfost wrote. “Following the October 10 event, combined with the deterioration in the global macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop, traders largely opted to reduce risk. This deleveraging phase on Binance lasted roughly 8 months.” The analyst’s framework identifies deleveraging periods when open interest falls below its 180-day moving average. In market terms, that suggests futures activity is declining as corrections force liquidations, position closures and a broader reduction in investor exposure. For Bitcoin, the latest stretch was notable not only for its duration, but for how closely it resembled the setup seen in 2022 before the FTX collapse triggered another wave of liquidations. Related Reading: Bitcoin $78,000 Rebound Fizzles As Coinbase Premium Stays Red The turning point appears to have emerged in early May. Binance open interest has risen from $6.4 billion in March to roughly $8.96 billion, Darkfost said, moving back above its 180-day average of about $8.75 billion. That crossover matters because it signals that derivatives activity is no longer in contraction relative to its medium-term trend. “Since early May, however, the trend appears to be shifting,” the analyst wrote. “Binance Open Interest has risen from $6.4B in March to around $8.96B today, moving back above its 180 day average currently sitting near $8.75B. This effectively signals the end of the deleveraging period.” Related Reading: Wintermute Says Bitcoin Rally Was A Squeeze, Low $70,000s Loom The return of futures positioning has likely reinforced Bitcoin’s rebound from its corrective phase, according to the analyst. As open interest rises, more traders are deploying capital into directional and leveraged strategies, adding liquidity and potentially amplifying price moves. In this case, Darkfost argued that the renewed participation has “clearly contributed to the ongoing upward correction.” Still, the analyst stopped short of describing the move as a durable recovery. The distinction is important. A rise in open interest can mark renewed confidence, but it can also reflect short-term speculative positioning after a sharp drawdown. Darkfost framed the current move as a rebound trade rather than confirmation that Bitcoin has fully exited the pressure that began in October. “Despite a macro environment that has continued to deteriorate, Bitcoin’s sharp correction attracted more speculative traders looking to play a rebound,” he wrote. “That said, this trend remains highly fragile, and these traders could exit just as quickly as they entered if BTC resumes the correction that started back in October.” That fragility is the main risk in the setup. The same derivatives flows now supporting the rebound could reverse if spot momentum weakens or macro conditions deteriorate further. In that scenario, recently added leverage would become a source of downside pressure rather than support, especially if traders who entered for a rebound move are forced to unwind quickly. At press time, BTC traded at $77,479. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is struggling below $80,000 as the market faces uncertainty that extends well beyond the usual price action concerns. The breakdown from key levels has been accompanied by a broader reassessment of the macro environment — and XWIN Research Japan has identified a structural shift at the highest level of global monetary policy that may define the conditions Bitcoin operates in for the foreseeable future. Related Reading: Chainlink Sees Historic On-Chain Surge While Exchange Supply Keeps Shrinking – Details The Federal Reserve is entering a new era. Kevin Warsh has officially taken over as Fed Chair, and the market’s attention has shifted from the immediate question of rate cuts to a more fundamental one: whether the Fed’s operating philosophy itself has changed. That distinction matters more for risk assets than any single rate decision. Warsh is not a conventional Fed Chair. He has been a long-standing critic of excessive quantitative easing and the concept of a central bank that continuously intervenes to support financial markets during periods of stress. The regime he inherits — and the one he is expected to reshape — is being read by markets as a transition from what XWIN Research Japan describes as a market-rescuing Fed toward a discipline-focused one. For previous generations of Bitcoin investors, Fed philosophy was a secondary consideration. That era has ended. ETFs, institutional allocations, hedge fund positioning, and the maturation of Bitcoin’s derivatives infrastructure have transformed BTC into a global liquidity-sensitive asset — one that now responds to shifts in financial conditions with a directness that previous cycles never required participants to account for. Three Signals That Will Tell You How Bitcoin Responds to the New Fed The XWIN Research Japan report identifies the specific on-chain indicators most likely to register the impact of the Warsh Fed before price action confirms anything. The first is the Coinbase Premium — the gap between Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase and offshore exchanges like Binance. During periods of strong US institutional spot demand, the premium stays positive. If concerns about prolonged high rates or continued quantitative tightening suppress institutional buying appetite, the Coinbase Premium turns negative first, before exchange prices reflect the reduced demand. It is the earliest available signal of whether American institutional capital is retreating or holding. Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index | Source: CryptoQuant The second is Bitcoin Exchange Netflow. Rising inflows to exchanges typically precede selling pressure or defensive repositioning. A risk-off environment triggered by a discipline-focused Fed would likely manifest in higher exchange inflows and increased short-term holder selling — the behavioral signature of participants reducing exposure before the price fully reflects their caution. The third is the leverage structure the report has already identified as the dominant feature of Bitcoin’s current market. Rallies built on short-covering rather than genuine spot accumulation are structurally fragile — and a Fed environment that does not rescue markets removes the implicit backstop that has historically encouraged re-leveraging after corrections. The irony the report preserves is worth sitting with. A stricter central bank that refuses to rescue markets could pressure Bitcoin in the short term through tighter financial conditions and reduced institutional appetite. Over the medium term, that same strictness could strengthen Bitcoin’s fundamental appeal — a politically neutral store of value operating entirely outside the fiat system that Warsh’s discipline-focused Fed is attempting to defend. The on-chain signals will reveal which dynamic arrives first. Related Reading: XRP Whale Dominance Returns To Binance While Coinbase Data Tells A Different Story Bitcoin Holds Above Key Support As Bulls Defend Recovery Structure Bitcoin continues consolidating near the $77,000 region after failing to sustain momentum above the recent $82,000 local high. The daily chart shows a market entering a critical decision phase, with price compressing between overhead resistance and a major support zone that has defined the structure of the recovery since April. Bitcoin compressed between key SMA's | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView The most important technical area remains the $73,000–$74,000 range highlighted on the chart. This zone previously acted as resistance during March before flipping into support during the April breakout. Bitcoin is now retesting that region from above while the 50-day moving average rises directly underneath it, creating a confluence area bulls must defend to preserve the medium-term recovery structure. Related Reading: HYPE Accumulation Intensifies As Whale-Linked Position Surpasses $100M At the same time, the 200-day moving average near $82,000 continues acting as macro resistance. Recent rejection from that level confirms that sellers remain active whenever BTC approaches the upper boundary of the current range. The sequence of lower highs since mid-May also suggests momentum has weakened considerably following the rally from the February lows. Volume conditions have normalized after the extreme volatility seen during the February capitulation event, indicating the market is transitioning from panic-driven movement into a slower consolidation phase. Technically, Bitcoin remains constructive while trading above $74,000. Holding support could allow another attempt toward the $80,000–$82,000 region, while losing it would likely expose the broader $65,000 demand zone below. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
A recent TradingView technical outlook suggests Bitcoin remains locked beneath a stubborn upper trendline resistance that continues to suppress bullish momentum. Despite several recovery attempts, BTC has repeatedly failed to break through the resistance zone, causing speculations that the price could push below $60,000. Bitcoin Trapped Beneath A Heavy Ceiling The TradingView chart highlights how this upper trendline has consistently acted as a ceiling for price action, rejecting Bitcoin each time buyers attempt to push higher. That resistance area also overlaps with key Fibonacci retracement levels, making it an increasingly important barrier within the current market structure. Related Reading: Pundit Predicts What Will Happen To XRP When Exchanges Run Out Of Supply Current price action appears to support that outlook. Bitcoin has struggled to sustain upside momentum and recently slipped lower after another rejection near the top of the rising formation. Attention is now shifting toward the $73,000 to $75,000 support region, which analysts view as critical for maintaining the broader bullish structure. The setup also shows a narrowing wedge-like recovery structure developing after Bitcoin’s earlier selloff. However, rather than breaking upward decisively, BTC has started rolling over near resistance once again, signaling that the market still lacks the momentum needed to overpower the upper trendline. This weakness is already becoming visible across broader market performance metrics. Bitcoin remains under pressure on higher timeframes and has recorded losses across the weekly and 14-day charts. For bullish momentum to regain strength, analysts say Bitcoin must finally break above the upper trendline resistance with strong conviction. Until that happens, the current price action continues to reinforce the idea that the trendline ceiling remains firmly in control of the market. Can Bitcoin Crash Below $60,000? While the dominant outlook favours Bitcoin breaking the upper trendline to regain bullish momentum, analysts are not dismissing the possibility of a much deeper flush if key supports collapse. The immediate downside focus sits between $69,000 and $66,000, where another major support region intersects with the rising trendline structure from previous swing lows. A move into that range would likely represent an aggressive but technically acceptable retracement within the broader cycle. Related Reading: XRP Analyst Reveals The Real Catalysts; ‘The Price Discovery Will Be Biblical’ The more concerning scenario emerges if Bitcoin loses the $66,000 threshold entirely. According to the chart, that breakdown would invalidate the current ascending support framework and potentially trigger a broader risk-off reaction across crypto markets. In that situation, volatility could increase rapidly. Liquidity gaps below current price levels may expose Bitcoin to a sharp capitulation move capable of driving price beneath $60,000 before stronger demand returns. There is also a hint at the possibility of a panic-driven wick stretching toward the low-$50,000 region if market conditions deteriorate aggressively. For now, however, the market remains at an inflection point rather than in confirmed collapse. The behavior of buyers around the $73,000 to $75,000 area will likely determine whether Bitcoin resumes its climb toward six-figure territory or slides into a much deeper corrective phase. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
The founder of on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has highlighted how the signals related to a Bitcoin bull run haven’t switched on yet. Bitcoin Bull Score Index Is Still Inside The Neutral Territory In a new post on X, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju has shared the latest trend in the Bull Score Index for Bitcoin. This on-chain metric combines the data of several different indicators to give a single score for the network. Related Reading: XRP Declines 8%, But Whales Scoop Up 71 Million Tokens More specifically, the index makes use of ten metrics. Some of the popular ones part of it include the MVRV Z-Score, Trader Realized Price, and Stablecoin Liquidity. The Bull Score Index calculates its value in a simple manner: it counts up the number of metrics flashing a bullish signal for the cryptocurrency and multiplies the total by 10. When the indicator has a value greater than 60, it means more than six metrics are pointing to positive market conditions. Such a trend implies BTC may be in a bullish market phase. On the other hand, the index being lower than 40 suggests the majority of the indicators are bearish toward the asset. Now, here is the chart shared by Young Ju that shows how the trend in the Bitcoin Bull Score Index has fluctuated over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Bull Score Index spent its days inside the red territory during Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. This means that the market was in a bearish phase from the perspective of this index. Recently, however, the recovery surge has meant that the indicator has experienced some days inside the neutral zone, corresponding to values between 40 and 60. The shift in the metric’s trend, though, may not correspond to the return of a bullish wave yet. “Once the real Bitcoin bull run begins, all signals will be very clear,” noted the analyst. “We are not there yet.” It now remains to be seen how long it will be before the Bull Score Index turns green for the cryptocurrency. In some other news, the Bitcoin supply held by the long-term holders (LTHs) has broken out of a downtrend recently, as analyst James Van Straten has highlighted in an X post. The LTHs refer to the BTC investors holding for more than 155 days ago. This cohort is considered to correspond to the diamond hands of the market. Related Reading: Bitcoin $78,000 Rebound Fizzles As Coinbase Premium Stays Red As the chart below shows, the total holdings of these investors have shot up recently. The latest surge in the Bitcoin LTH supply could mark the end of a 2.5-year long consolidation phase for the metric. “This cohort controls the market and this is why the four year cycle is over,” said the analyst. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $77,300, down more than 4% in the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Kevin Warsh is set to be sworn as Fed chairman in a White House ceremony on Friday morning.
Crypto analyst Phila has predicted that the Bitcoin price could see a massive decline to $55,000 after breaking a 14-year support level. This comes amid BTC’s fall below the psychological $80,000 level, with the leading crypto now at risk of dropping to new lows. Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Drop To $55,000 Amid Breakdown In an X post, Phila stated that the Bitcoin price just broke a support level that has held for 14 years, noting that it had held in previous bear cycles. The analyst further remarked that this is not a dip, a correction, or a shakeout, but rather capitulation happening in real time. His accompanying chart showed that the leading crypto could drop to around $55,000 following the breakdown below the key support level. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is Playing Out The ‘Fakeout Theory’ Again, Here’s What To Expect Meanwhile, the analyst highlighted his track record, noting that he called the $16,000 bottom in 2022 and the top for the Bitcoin price in October 2025. As such, he suggested that market participants should prepare accordingly, as his prediction of a decline to $55,000 is likely to happen. In another X post, Phila stated that the Bitcoin price action was mirroring the 2021 price action, with the double top, lower highs, and lower lows. He noted that there was also a relief rally in 2021 that felt like the bottom, but it wasn’t the bottom, and everyone who bought BTC before the rally saw losses on the next leg down. Similarly, the Bitcoin price is once again in a relief rally phase, with many market participants believing that the February 2026 low of $60,000 was the bottom. He added that many think that the worst is over, but that $50,000 is on the table and that his fractal hasn’t missed a single step yet. The Key Level To Watch For Now Crypto analyst Ali Martinez said that $77,800 is the key level to watch for the Bitcoin price at the moment. This came as he alluded to a well-defined channel that has developed on the lower timeframes and that BTC has climbed to test the upper boundary of this structure around $77,800. Related Reading: What’s The Latest With The US-Iran War And How Does It Affect Bitcoin? The analyst further predicted that a flip of this level into support could clear the path for the Bitcoin price to rally to around $79,000. However, if BTC fails to break above this level, then it could see a healthy retracement back into the channel to gather liquidity. Martinez added that the key levels to watch for a bounce are the mid-range at $76,900 and the channel bottom at $76,000. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $77,500, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Dan Roberts outlines IREN’s strategy to build a vertically integrated AI platform spanning power, data centers, GPUs and enterprise software.
DJT’s bitcoin strategy remains under pressure as the company sits on hundreds of millions in unrealized crypto losses and widening quarterly deficits.
BTC's implied volatility is a picture of calm even as financial headlines warn of macro risks.
Open interest held steady and funding stayed subdued during the recent liquidation wave, suggesting traders were de-risking rather than capitulating, according to HashKey Research's Tim Sun.
Nakamoto sold 284 Bitcoin on the last day of March just to keep the lights on. That detail, buried in the company’s first-quarter financial results, tells the story of where one of the country’s Bitcoin treasury companies now stands. Related Reading: Crypto Access To Banks In Focus After Trump’s New Executive Order A Company Running Low On Options? The Bitcoin accumulation strategy that once drove Nakamoto’s stock above $25 a share has given way to something far less glamorous — selling Bitcoin to cover operating costs. The company reported a net loss of $238 million for the first quarter of the year, with more than $102 million of that tied to a drop in the value of its Bitcoin holdings after the cryptocurrency fell 20% during the quarter. Revenue jumped 500% quarter over quarter, but the losses swamped those gains. Nakamoto holds 5,058 Bitcoin, making it the 20th largest corporate Bitcoin holder in the world, just behind ProCap Financial. Michael Saylor’s Strategy sits at the top of that list with more than 843,000 Bitcoin on its balance sheet — a gap that makes clear how far down the pecking order Nakamoto falls. Following Stockholder Approval, Nakamoto Announces 1-for-40 Reverse Stock Split to be Effective May 22, 2026 Read the full announcement here: https://t.co/AnqTXttIMQ — Nakamoto (@nakamoto) May 20, 2026 Racing The Clock On Nasdaq The company is now focused on a more immediate problem: staying listed on the Nasdaq. Last December, Nasdaq sent Nakamoto a warning after its stock price dropped below $1 for 30 straight trading days. The deadline to fix that is June 8, and the fix the company has chosen is a 1-for-40 reverse stock split, set to take effect Friday. The move was approved by shareholders at a special meeting earlier this month. Under the plan, every 40 shares get combined into one, shrinking the total share count from 696 million down to 17.4 million. The stock closed at 16 cents Wednesday — down 7.5% for the day and more than 99% below where it traded a year ago. A reverse split does not change a company’s overall market value. It is a structural adjustment designed to push the price per share above a listing threshold. Related Reading: Zcash Soars 88% In 30 Days: Is ZEC The Stealth Winner Of This Crypto Cycle? Consolidation Ahead For The Sector Nakamoto’s troubles are not unique. Reports indicate that crypto treasury companies broadly have been in a downturn since 2025, with many trading below the value of the assets on their books. Some have begun selling their Bitcoin holdings to pay down debt. One company, Genius Group, liquidated its entire 84 Bitcoin reserve in February for that purpose. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin (BTC) is trapped in its new consolidation band, holding between about $76,000 and $78,500. That range has now become the market’s near-term battlefield, with BTC roughly 38% below its all-time highs. While this sideways action may appear stable, a new CryptoQuant report argues that miners themselves don’t yet believe the market has fully reached a bottom. No Panic, Still Cautious The report points to a key indicator: the decline in Binance Pool Miner Reserve data. Since Binance Pool accounts for a large portion of the global hash rate, its behavior is often treated as a useful proxy for broader miner sentiment. In this case, falling reserves suggest that Bitcoin miners within the pool are continuing to trim what they hold in reserve. Typically, reserve reduction can reflect ongoing operational selling pressure, meaning miners are still supplying BTC to the market rather than stepping back completely. Related Reading: Hyperliquid (HYPE) Breaks New All-Time High—Surges Past $62 As Momentum Spikes At the same time, the report adds an important nuance through another metric: the Miners’ Position Index (MPI) staying in negative territory. That detail matters because it implies miners are not selling aggressively in a way that resembles historical panic behavior. In other words, the Bitcoin selling activity they’re showing appears more tied to necessity than to a full-scale rush to get out. CryptoQuant frames this as a reason the risk of an abrupt, catastrophic price dump remains relatively low for now. The Puell Multiple is also cited as supporting the same overall interpretation. CryptoQuant notes that the Puell Multiple remaining below 1 indicates miner revenues are still weak and under pressure compared with historical baselines. Practically, that means miners are operating in a stressed environment, but they are not necessarily accumulating aggressively because Bitcoin still hasn’t delivered the kind of bullish breakout that would typically encourage stronger positioning. Instead, miners look like they’re in a wait-and-watch mode. CryptoQuant says this kind of behavior is often observed near bottom formations, even if it doesn’t confirm one has fully formed yet. Bitcoin Price Outlook ‘Mixed’ Looking at what this means for price, the picture is mixed. The drop in miner reserves implies some BTC supply is still moving into the market. However, because the MPI remains weak (but not in a “panic selling” pattern), CryptoQuant suggests the resulting selling pressure may not be large enough to trigger a sudden Bitcoin collapse. Related Reading: Circle’s Next Step: Hyperliquid (HYPE) Integration As The Catalyst For Real Supply-Share Gain That aligns with the current chart structure, which continues to suggest sideways consolidation for a while longer. CryptoQuant also brings in an additional perspective from a separate report: whales reportedly bought near $78K and are now distributing in the $77K–$81K area. At the same time, exchange reserves are described as being at a monthly high, which is another sign that selling pressure is elevated. In that context, CryptoQuant’s implication is straightforward—if Bitcoin breaks down again and loses $76K, selling pressure could intensify quickly. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $77,763, having recorded a decline of almost 5% after failing to break above and hold $83,000 during last week’s rally. Featured image created with OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com