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Bitcoin has regained footing after a turbulent week of selling pressure, reclaiming crucial support levels and signaling early signs of recovery. Bulls are cautiously stepping back in, though conviction remains limited as the $110K resistance — a key psychological and technical barrier — has yet to be tested. Related Reading: Anti-CZ Whale Flips Bullish On Ethereum: Now Up $15M On A $119.6M Long Position According to CryptoQuant data, underlying market dynamics suggest that a continuation of current momentum could fuel a potential surge toward $115K. The rebound follows a period of heightened liquidations and bearish sentiment that briefly pushed Bitcoin below $100K, triggering panic among short-term traders. On-chain metrics now show improving stability across several fronts. Spot exchange outflows have increased, suggesting that investors are once again moving BTC into self-custody, a sign of renewed holding behavior. At the same time, derivatives market data indicates cooling open interest and reduced leverage — conditions that historically precede healthier, more sustainable uptrends. Short-Term Holder MVRV Suggests Potential for Bitcoin Recovery Top analyst Axel Adler highlights that Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder (STH) MVRV ratio has shown early signs of recovery following last week’s sharp correction. On November 7, the metric reached a local low of 0.9124, nearing the lower boundary of its historical range — a zone that has often aligned with short-term market bottoms. As of today, the STH MVRV has climbed to 0.9514, signaling that selling pressure among short-term holders may be easing. This stabilization suggests a potential shift from capitulation to recovery, as traders who bought at higher levels begin to reduce loss-taking behavior. Historically, when the STH MVRV holds above 0.92 and begins trending upward, it often precedes a renewed bullish impulse. Adler notes that if this pattern continues, the metric could rise toward the upper boundary of its range, typically associated with price levels between $115K and $120K. This trend aligns with Bitcoin’s recent technical rebound and improving on-chain sentiment. While further confirmation is needed, maintaining the MVRV above this critical threshold could indicate that the market has absorbed much of the short-term selling pressure — laying the groundwork for a potential recovery phase in the weeks ahead. Related Reading: Ethereum Trading Volume On Binance Surpasses $6 Trillion: A Speculative Frenzy Unfolds Reclaiming Ground After Sharp Correction Bitcoin is showing early signs of recovery after a volatile drop below $100K, reclaiming key technical levels and stabilizing near $105,000. The daily chart shows a short-term bullish reaction following the bounce from the 200-day moving average (red line) — a critical dynamic support level that has repeatedly marked the bottom of corrective phases throughout this cycle. However, the broader trend remains cautious. The 50-day (blue) and 100-day (green) moving averages are above the current price, and both are flattening, signaling that momentum remains weak. A decisive breakout above the $108K–$110K resistance zone is needed to confirm a potential trend reversal and shift sentiment. Related Reading: SharpLink Gaming Wallet Moves Freshly Redeemed Ethereum to OKX – Details If Bitcoin maintains support above $103K and consolidates with rising volume, the next target could align with the $115K region — in line with on-chain signals pointing to a recovery. Conversely, a breakdown below $100K could reopen downside risk toward $95K. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

A leading market expert recently hinted at an impending bottom for Bitcoin (BTC), suggesting that within the next 328 days, the cryptocurrency could reach a price range between $38,000 and $50,000.  Bitcoin Price Bottom In October 2026 Although Bitcoin’s performance this year has lagged behind US stock markets and gold, it has still managed to achieve notable highs, currently trading nearly 20% below its record peak of $126,000 reached earlier in October.  Related Reading: Crypto Treasuries Shift Focus From Bitcoin And Ether To These Lesser-Known Altcoins However, the current market landscape is marked by considerable uncertainty among investors, with fear and selling pressure leading Bitcoin to consolidate just above the $100,000 mark. In a recent social media post on X (formerly Twitter), analyst Ali Martinez expressed confidence in his forecast, anticipating that a bottom may occur around October 2026, implying a potential drop of 51% toward the $50,000 level and approximately 63% down to $38,000 in the most pessimistic scenario. BTC May Have Reached Cycle Top Martinez has observed historical patterns throughout various market cycles. He pointed out that in both the 2015–2017 and 2018–2021 cycles, there were exactly 1,064 days between the bear market bottom and the bull market peak.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Analysis: Pre-Rally Signals Point To $180,000 Target In Q1 2026 Notably, the current cycle, which began from the November 2022 bottom and led to the recent all-time high of $126,220, is now approaching 1,082 days. This recurring timing structure suggests that Bitcoin may have already reached its cycle top. While Martinez’s assertions do not guarantee an outcome, he stated that these historical patterns reinforce his forecast, while suggesting that the market is entering the “early stages of a post-peak retracement phase.” At the time of writing, the market’s leading cryptocurrency trades at $103,320, recording losses of 3% in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

As investors navigate a landscape marked by heightened uncertainty, the Bitcoin price is currently trading nearly 20% below its all-time highs. However, a group of analysts has drawn parallels between the present performance and the significant rally observed in 2023. Positive Signals For The Bitcoin Price In a recent update shared on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), analysts from The Bull Theory highlighted that the Bitcoin price has once again closed a weekly candle above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a critical indicator that has historically supported every major uptrend over the past two and a half years.  Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Set For 1,200% Rally To $2.2 In This 3rd Run This EMA level has been tested multiple times, notably in August 2024 and April 2025, where Bitcoin dipped below it briefly before reclaiming the position and entering a new upward trajectory. Currently, a similar pattern appears to be forming. The analysts pointed out that Bitcoin has maintained its position within a multi-year support zone on the Relative Strength Index (RSI).  Although momentum has cooled, there are no signs of an impending breakdown, the analysts asserted. In previous instances where the RSI reached this level during the current cycle, it signaled the conclusion of a corrective phase and the onset of expansion. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is resetting near its historical reversal zone, a zone that has previously triggered rallies in early 2023, late 2024, and again in the second quarter of 2025. This suggests a potential exhaustion of selling pressure rather than the beginning of a new downtrend. Strong Potential For Future Gains From a structural standpoint, the recent corrective move appears complete. Bitcoin has retraced nearly 20% from its peak of $126,000, aligning perfectly with the average correction size observed in each impulsive wave since the cycle began.  When considering the signals from the reclaimed EMA, the RSI support, and the MACD reversal zone, the current structure mirrors setups that preceded major breakouts since 2023. This analysis implies that the market is not on the verge of a breakdown but rather undergoing a necessary reset. Related Reading: Trump Media Takes $55M Hit As Bitcoin Holdings Surge In Value While it is possible that Bitcoin may experience a few weeks of sideways consolidation as it stabilizes above the EMA, similar to the behavior seen after the April 2025 correction, this range could set the stage for the next expansion phase. Looking ahead, the analysts suggest that this could signify the fifth wave of the current market structure, with potential price targets ranging between $160,000 and $180,000 by the first quarter of 2026. Technically, all indicators currently favor continuation rather than collapse. When writing, the Bitcoin price was trading at $106,520, recording a nearly 2% recovery in the 24-hour time frame, according to CoinGecko data.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

The Bitcoin price, which had been climbing steadily toward new all-time highs, suddenly plunged on October 10, dragging the Ethereum price and the rest of the market with it. According to the latest Binance Research monthly market insights, the crash wasn’t due to weak crypto fundamentals or a loss of investor interest, but to an abrupt flush-out of excessive risky positions following geopolitical shocks and macroeconomic uncertainty. Why The Bitcoin And Ethereum Prices Collapsed Binance Research reports that the October 10 crash occurred as traders sold more than $19 billion in high-risk positions, marking one of the most significant single-day sell-offs in recent crypto history. The drop began soon after US President Trump announced new tariffs on China, which raised trade tensions and sent risk markets into a tailspin. Related Reading: Here’s Why JPMorgan Analysts Are Still Bullish On The Bitcoin Price After Crashing Below $100,000 Bitcoin’s intraday price swings spiked to levels rarely seen, with a Z-score of 3.08, meaning such extreme moves statistically occur only once every 1,000 days.  Binance Research notes that the sudden sell-off of high-risk positions pushed Bitcoin down around 4%, while Ethereum fell 8.6%, marking the market’s first negative October since 2018. The macro environment intensified the sell-off. A US government shutdown and a Federal Reserve rate cut in early October, when the Fed trimmed interest rates by 25 basis points but signaled a possible pause for further cuts, had already shaken investor confidence.  With economic data flow disrupted and rate policy uncertain, traders sought safety and closed risky positions. Binance notes that overall crypto market capitalization fell 6.1%, indicating a coordinated pullback from high-risk exposure. Will History Repeat Itself Again? Despite the sharp drop, the market recovered quickly. According to Binance Research, total borrowed and high-risk positions, which briefly fell below 5%, rebounded to 5.77% by October 31, marking a 10% recovery and suggesting that traders remain confident in taking risks. Related Reading: New XRP ETF Just Dropped, But Will Anything Be Different This Time? Bitcoin’s market share rose to 59.4%, indicating that investors rotated toward safer options during the market turbulence. Meanwhile, Ethereum continued to attract institutional buyers, with treasury holdings reaching 5% of total ETH supply, demonstrating sustained confidence in its ability to generate returns. Binance’s BVoL index, which tracks expected price swings in crypto options, peaked at 52, far below the year’s high of 88 in March, indicating that investors did not expect a prolonged crash in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices. The analysis highlights that the October 10 crash acted as a reset of risky positions rather than a price trend reversal. The rebound in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices highlights the market’s resilience; however, the return of high-risk positions means another sharp correction could occur if new macroeconomic shocks arise, leaving prices vulnerable to sudden swings. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s price struggled to regain momentum last week, hovering just above the $100,000 threshold after a turbulent start to November. The entire market sentiment is somewhat fragile following heavy selling pressure from large holders, and on-chain data points to major whale movements that may be adding to the downtrend. High-profile entities, including the Winklevoss Twins’ Gemini Custody wallets and early Bitcoin miner Owen Gunden, have surfaced as key players in this wave of transactions that could be influencing Bitcoin’s recent price action. Winklevoss Twins Move Millions In BTC From Gemini Custody According to blockchain data, wallets linked to Winklevoss Capital and Gemini Custody have been consistently transferring large amounts of Bitcoin over the past several months in an ongoing deliberate adjustment of their holdings.  These movements have occurred in several phases, often involving sizeable transactions that appear timed. The latest transaction stands out, showing 250 BTC, worth approximately $25.45 million at current prices, moved to a Gemini hot wallet just hours ago.  Related Reading: New XRP ETF Just Dropped, But Will Anything Be Different This Time? If these transfers correspond to sales, it would mean that the twins have been methodically unloading their Bitcoin positions over time rather than engaging in sudden bulk liquidations. Cumulatively, they have now effectively liquidated over 9,000 BTC, equivalent to around $900 million, since the start of 2025. This has caused their holdings to fall from roughly 24,000 BTC earlier in the year to under 16,000 BTC right now. Bitcoin OG Owen Gunden Moves Final Holdings Toward Exchanges Another major wallet attracting attention belongs to Owen Gunden, an early Bitcoin miner and Genesis creditor. Data from on-chain analytics platform Lookonchain reveals that Gunden recently initiated large transfers totaling 3,549 BTC (around $361.8 million) in a single transaction just eight hours ago. Related Reading: Pundit Highlights Major Move For XRP And RLUSD, Will Price Follow? The move follows earlier transactions this week, including 3,601 BTC ($372.1 million) sent one day prior. Notably, approximately 600 BTC from these transfers, worth over $61 million, have already been deposited on Kraken, signaling possible liquidation.  These movements have reduced Gunden’s total holdings from around 11,000 BTC to nearly zero. Such large transfers to exchange-linked wallets often precede sell orders, contributing to short-term selling pressure. The Gunden transfers, alongside similar large movements like those from the Winklevoss twins, are among several whale sell events recorded in November that have added to Bitcoin’s persistent selling pressure. This trend is apparent in the broader institutional market, where US-based Spot Bitcoin ETFs have also seen sustained outflows. Data shows that Friday of last week closed with $558.44 million leaving these funds. The combined effect of these whale movements presents a concerning outlook for Bitcoin’s short-term trend. However, this weekend has been highlighted by another green weekend for Bitcoin.  At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $106,270, up by 4.4% in the past 24 hours. This follows a string of green weekends over the past four weeks, which were immediately reversed on the following monday. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin pushed sharply higher in early European trade on Monday, November 10, 2025, briefly reclaiming the $106,000 handle after a volatile weekend. The move arrives as a cluster of macro-liquidity signals and policy headlines flips risk appetite at the margins. Why Is Bitcoin Price Up Today? Under the surface, traders point to three interlocking drivers: an abrupt shift in Federal Reserve balance-sheet guidance, rising odds that Washington’s shutdown saga could be resolved imminently with a subsequent Treasury General Account (TGA) drawdown, and a fresh wave of policy chatter—from 50-year mortgages to potential relief checks—that revives the “liquidity impulse” debate. The most concrete development is the Fed’s communication pivot on reserves and the balance sheet. New York Fed President John Williams signaled last week that, with reserves sliding from “abundant” toward merely “ample,” the central bank may soon need to resume asset purchases—not for stimulus, but to maintain smooth money-market functioning as the Fed halts quantitative tightening on December 1 and begins fully reinvesting maturing Treasuries. Related Reading: Bitcoin Correction Nears Peak Point — Is A Rebound Underway? “The Fed may soon need to expand the balance sheet for liquidity needs,” Williams said, emphasizing any buying would be technical rather than a new QE program. QT will stop on December 1 and officials are preparing for balance-sheet growth as needed to stabilize reserves. Washington politics, paradoxically, is the other tailwind. Prediction markets now handicap material odds that the record-long US government shutdown will be resolved in mid-November. Polymarket shows odds for 87% for a resolution between November 12–15 range. Why does that matter for Bitcoin? Because when a shutdown ends, Treasury spending typically picks up and, all else equal, cash flows out of the TGA at the Fed into the banking system, raising bank reserves. That mechanical linkage—TGA down, reserves up—has been well documented. A reserve boost, especially with the Fed no longer draining liquidity via QT, is the kind of macro backdrop that has historically coincided with stronger crypto bid. Related Reading: Bitcoin Options Craze: OI Looks Set To Keep Printing ATHs, Glassnode Says Into that mix, fresh policy chatter is stoking “liquidity imagination.” Over the weekend, President Trump and FHFA leadership floated the idea of permitting 50-year mortgages, a change that, if implemented through the government-sponsored enterprises, would materially reshape US housing finance duration and lower monthly payments at the cost of higher lifetime interest. On X, the liquidity narrative is being distilled—loudly—into punchy memes and historical analogies. Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) summed up the day’s bull case: “Bullish weekly close. 90% chance US shutdown ends this week (Polymarket). Fed dropping rates 1% over 18 months. Fed confirmed plan to grow balance sheet! Equities Fear & Greed in extreme Fear! Put/Call ratio bullish. Send Bitcoin back up.” James Lavish (@jameslavish) pushed the fiscal angle: “Trump is floating $2K stimmy checks, the FHFA is considering 50-year mortgages, and the US government continues to run $2 trillion deficits. Please tell me again how the era of easy liquidity and asset inflation is ending.” Yann Allemann and Jan Happel, the co-founders of the blockchain data and intelligence platform Glassnode(@Negentropic_) tied it back to the TGA: “Deal for gov shutdown on the horizon. This will give the Treasury a green light to start draining the TGA. This is a major ingredient for the final up leg to play out.” Joe Consorti (@JoeConsorti) added a retail-flow callback: “Welcome back, helicopter money… had you invested your $1,200 stimulus check in Bitcoin, it’d now be worth $18,607. Don’t mess this up.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $106,265. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s price has struggled to maintain stability above $102,000 in recent days, and data shows this is due to an apparent imbalance between selling pressure and fresh demand.  On-chain data from CryptoQuant reveals that while long-term holders have been actively taking profits, the market is showing limited capacity to absorb their sell-offs. This is a contrast to previous phases of the bull run, where rising demand was able to offset increased long-term holder activity.  Related Reading: XRP’s Price Doesn’t Match Its Growing Real-World Use, Study Finds Rising Long-Term Holder Selling Pressure Mirrors Past Bull Cycles Data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, which was initially shared by Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, shows an interesting change in dynamics among Bitcoin holder activity that could shape the cryptocurrency’s next move. Julio Moreno explained that long-term holder (LTH) selling is a normal pattern in bull markets as investors take profits when Bitcoin approaches or surpasses all-time highs. The CryptoQuant data shows that the 30-day sum of LTH spending, represented by the purple line in the chart image below, has been increasing since early October.  This behavior follows previous bullish rally phases, such as those seen in early and late 2024, when profit-taking coincided with expanding demand, and so Bitcoin pushed to new record prices. The chart accompanying Moreno’s post shows green areas representing periods of positive apparent demand growth and red areas indicating contraction. During January to March 2024 and November to December 2024,  LTH selloffs occurred as demand expanded. Bitcoin Long-term Holder Spending Since October 2025, however, that trend has reversed. Even as LTH selling increased, demand has entered a red zone, showing that the market’s ability to absorb this selling pressure has weakened. This has coincided with Bitcoin’s struggle to sustain its position above $102,000, suggesting that price growth might be losing momentum. Sustained Weak Demand Could Delay Next Rally Moreno noted that the critical factor to watch isn’t just the volume of long-term holder sell-offs but whether demand growth can keep pace.  When demand is strong, the influx of supply from long-term holders often drives healthy consolidation before another price surge. In contrast, when demand falls behind, the result tends to be prolonged corrections or sideways movement. A large portion of that demand now comes from Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have seen a sharp slowdown in inflows. Data from SosoValue shows that US-based Spot Bitcoin ETFs ended last week with net outflows of $558.44 million on Friday, November 7, one of the largest single-day outflows in weeks. Related Reading: Get Ready — The End Of November Will Be Massive For XRP, CEO Says Unless Bitcoin’s apparent demand begins to recover in the coming weeks and LTH sell-offs continue, then this might continue to weigh on price action and postpone the next leg of Bitcoin’s rally. In this case, we might continue to see Bitcoin consolidating between $101,000 and $103,000 for the rest of November.  At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $101,655, down by 0.6% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) recently bounced from the $100,000 level, sparking hopes of a bullish reversal. However, traders remain cautious, as this rebound could also be a temporary bull trap. With key resistance looming around $105,000–$106,000, the market’s next move will be critical in determining whether BTC can sustain an upward trend or resume its downtrend. A Possible Bullish Reversal After Reclaiming $102,000 According to Lennaert Snyder, Bitcoin is showing early signs of a potential bullish reversal. In the post on X, Snyder highlighted that BTC bounced from the recent lows and reclaimed the $102,000 level, signaling renewed buying interest. This recovery comes after a period of weakness, suggesting that the market may be attempting to stabilize before the next major move. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Crash Is Important If Wave 5 Corrects To $94,000 Snyder emphasized the importance of maintaining this momentum and establishing a higher low around $101,400, which would push the bullish scenario into a more sustained rally. Conversely, a failure to maintain support here could indicate lingering bearish pressure, so this level is critical for gauging market sentiment. In the meantime, the expert is closely monitoring lower time frame charts for potential scalp-long opportunities if a reversal occurs near $101,400. This tactical approach allows active traders to capitalize on short-term swings while waiting for confirmation of a broader bullish trend.  Key resistance remains at $104,700, which will be a decisive level for determining the next leg of the move. A successful breakout above this resistance could open the path toward $107,500, signaling that bulls are regaining control. However, given that it’s the weekend, Snyder cautioned that traders should be prepared for sudden swings or false breakouts as liquidity tends to be lower during this period. Bitcoin Reclaims Momentum, But $105,000–$106,000 Holds The Key In his latest update, market expert and investor Ted Pillows noted that Bitcoin briefly dropped below the $100,000 mark before bouncing back. The short-lived dip highlights ongoing uncertainty and the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers at key psychological levels. Related Reading: CryptoQuant Head Reveals Reason Behind Bearish Bitcoin Trend However, Ted cautioned that this rebound feels like a potential bull trap. While the price recovered quickly, the underlying momentum may still favor the bears, suggesting that traders should remain vigilant before assuming a sustained upward trend. He emphasized that until Bitcoin can reclaim the $105,000–$106,000 zone, the probability of further downside remains higher. Without a confirmed break above this critical resistance area, the market could continue to support levels as low as $93,394, keeping the short-term outlook skewed toward a possible downtrend. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Crypto analyst Colin has raised the possibility of the Bitcoin price mirroring gold’s parabolic move. The analyst further revealed how this could play out for BTC if it were to happen eventually.  What Will Happen If The Bitcoin Price Mirrors Gold In an X post, Colin indicated that the Bitcoin price will record another uptrend as soon as next week if it were to follow gold’s move. He opined that it is unlikely the flagship crypto will not witness another significant move to the upside, given that gold and stocks saw meteoric rises to new all-time highs (ATHs) in recent months.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Market Peak Indicators Says Hold Despite Crash Below $100,000, What’s Happening? Coilin further remarked that money will still flow toward crypto, with a delay, as he highlighted in the gold vs BTC chart. He added that the gold top would forecast a top for the Bitcoin price in January 2026 when shifted forward by 80 days. His accompanying chart showed that BTC could still rally to $175,000 if its bull market extends into January next year.  Colin admitted that this could be wrong for the Bitcoin price, but noted that many other metrics were pointing toward more upward price action for BTC. Meanwhile, he also highlighted the fact that sentiment was getting bearish in the crypto market. The market is currently on a downtrend, with the BTC dropping below $100,000 on several occasions this week.  This has raised concerns that the Bitcoin price may already be in a bear market. However, Colin has indicated that BTC could still rally to new all-time highs before this cycle ends. His prediction aligns with that of the likes of Standard Chartered, which has predicted that BTC could reach between $150,000 and $20,000 by year-end.    Why The BTC Top May Not Be In In another X post, Colin also explained why the top might not be in for the Bitcoin price in this bull run. He noted that the intersection of the 1150-day SMA with previous bull run peak times the top of the next peak. This happened in both the 2017 and 2021 bull runs, which marked the top for BTC at the time.  Related Reading: Analyst Who Predicted Bitcoin Price October Top Is Back With A New Prediction Now, the analyst said that this moving average hasn’t quite lined up with the $65,000 top from the previous cycle, indicating that BTC still has more room to rally to the upside in this market cycle. Colin added that this 1150-day SMA, if projected out, will indicate a top for the Bitcoin price around late December this year or January next year. He reiterated that all metrics collectively point to a top around late December or January next year.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $102,400, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

As the Bitcoin market continues to experience a flurry of sales, which started in mid-October, recent on-chain data paints a somewhat optimistic picture of the cryptocurrency’s future. The question is — is the Bitcoin bottom in? Is A BTC Price Reversal Imminent?  In a recent Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, pseudonymous crypto pundit Sunny Mom shared that a bottom formation for the Bitcoin price may be around the corner. Sunny Mom’s post was based on four different on-chain metrics, all looking into the behavior of Bitcoin’s market participants. The first of these is the Futures Taker CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta, 90-day) metric, which helps track the net difference between aggressive buy and sell volumes (referred to as taker orders) in the Bitcoin futures market over the last 90 days.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Options Craze: OI Looks Set To Keep Printing ATHs, Glassnode Says According to the online pundit, the more dominant sell zones (in red) are turning into neutral zones. This means the leveraged short positions (typically held by the most fearful and aggressive of Bitcoin’s market participants) are slowly taking their exits, thus pointing to the weakening of these speculative hands. Next, the on-chain analyst referenced data from the Spot Taker CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta, 90-day) metric. Although the number of speculative sellers is declining, the spot CVD still appears to be in the red. Typically, a ‘red’ reading from this metric suggests that Bitcoin’s holders are still selling their coins.  Another interesting event is that the Bitcoin: Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has fallen to a hallmark low. For context, this metric measures the ratio between Bitcoin’s supply and the supply of stablecoins (like USDT and USDC).  A high SSR indicates that there are fewer stablecoins in comparison to Bitcoin. As an extension, it points out that there is lower buying power to purchase Bitcoin in order to send its price to the upside. On the other hand, a low SSR indicates a relative abundance of stablecoins compared to the premier cryptocurrency, suggesting the presence of more potential buying power in the Bitcoin market.  Upon examination of past price action, it is apparent that periods where the SSR read ‘significantly low’ have often preceded significant price rebounds of the flagship cryptocurrency. If history is anything to go by, the analyst inferred that we might be set for another rebound, seeing as the SSR metric currently hovers around a historical low. Lastly, Sunny Mom explained that data from the Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) also supports the overall conjecture of an imminent price bottom. At the moment, the aSOPR reads around 1.0 — a level whose breach in April 2025 preceded a major price reversal.  Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands around $102,510, reflecting an over 1% increase in the past 24 hours.  Related Reading: Most Dangerous Bitcoin Boom Yet? Ray Dalio Warns Of ‘Stimulus Into A Bubble’ Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Glassnode has explained how the Bitcoin options Open Interest has been climbing recently and looks set to explore new all-time highs (ATHs). Bitcoin Options Open Interest Has Already Bounced Back From Oct Expiry In a new thread on X, analytics firm Glassnode has discussed about the Bitcoin options market. This segment of derivatives trading involves traders betting on future price moves through contracts giving the right (but not the obligation) to sell or buy the cryptocurrency at a set price. Related Reading: Bitcoin Erases Recovery As Coinbase Users Relentlessly Sell Earlier, perpetual futures was the main derivatives trading pathway that investors in the sector used, but recently, demand for options has grown enough to challenge the futures market. One way to gauge interest in options is through the Open Interest, an indicator that measures the total amount of contracts related to the market that are currently open on all centralized exchanges. Here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the Bitcoin options Open Interest over the last few months: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin options Open Interest reached a new record on October 31st. Shortly after, however, the metric saw a plunge due to the contract expiry. Options contracts come with an “expiry” date, on which the contract get either exercised or automatically closed out. A large amount of these expiries coincided on October 31st, which is why the indicator saw a flush. Interestingly, the options Open Interest has been quick to bounce back since then, with its value already halfway back to the ATH. Thus, it would appear demand for options is still alive and well. From the chart, it’s apparent that a similar pattern was also witnessed after the previous major expiry, when the metric gradually recovered and explored new records. “The options market open interest looks set to keep printing new ATHs, expiry after expiry,” explained the analytics firm. Related Reading: Bitcoin At Increased Risk Of Falling To $88,500 Support, Glassnode Warns In terms of trading volume, activity related to the market has been at notable levels since Bitcoin fell below the $107,000 level, as the below chart shows. How the volume related to the options market has changed over the past month | Source: Glassnode on X As Glassnode noted: Options volume has surged since we broke the 107K level and remains elevated showing the constant activities of the traders readjusting their positions and new traders coming in to put on some hedges. As for whether investors are opening bearish or bullish trades with these moves, data suggests bearish bets, or “puts,” initially rose during the plunge, but then bullish bets, or “calls,” saw a surge as price rebounded. Once again, however, puts have seen a rise, indicating investors don’t trust a bottom has appeared yet. BTC Price Bitcoin has retraced its recent recovery as its price is back at $100,900. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has retraced its recent recovery above $104,000 as data shows the Coinbase Premium Gap has continued to be negative. Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium Gap Has Been Red Recently As pointed out by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a new post on X, investors on Coinbase keep selling Bitcoin. The indicator of relevance here is the “Coinbase Premium Gap,” which measures the difference between the BTC price listed on Coinbase (USD pair) and that on Binance (USDT pair). Related Reading: Bitcoin At Increased Risk Of Falling To $88,500 Support, Glassnode Warns When the value of this metric is positive, it means the asset is trading at a higher rate on Coinbase than Binance. Such a trend suggests the users of the former are applying a higher buying pressure (or lower selling pressure) than those of the latter. On the other hand, the indicator being under the zero mark implies Binance users are the ones participating in a higher amount of accumulation as they have pushed the asset to a higher price on the platform. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows how the Coinbase Premium Gap has fluctuated over the past week: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap has stayed mostly in the negative zone during the past week, implying users on Coinbase have been participating in selling. The metric briefly turned neutral-green as the cryptocurrency witnessed a surge back above $104,000, but since then, the indicator’s value has again plummeted, and with it, the BTC price has erased its recovery. Since the start of 2024, Bitcoin has often reacted to movements in the Coinbase Premium Gap in a similar manner, showcasing how Coinbase users have been a driving force in the market. The exchange is mainly used by American investors, especially large institutional entities like the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), so the Coinbase Premium Gap essentially reflects how the US-based whales differ in behavior from Binance’s global traffic. Since the indicator has been red recently, it would appear that the American institutions have been distributing the cryptocurrency. Considering the pattern over the last couple of years, it’s possible that BTC’s recovery might depend on whether a bullish sentiment can return among this cohort. Related Reading: Cardano Retests Line That Has Triggered Strong Rebounds Since Nov 2024 In some other news, a movement of old tokens has just been spotted on the Bitcoin blockchain, as Maartunn has highlighted in another X post. From the chart, it’s visible that a stack of over 13,000 BTC that has been dormant for between 3 and 5 years has become involved in a transaction, a potential sign that a HODLer may be gearing up for selling. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $100,200, down almost 9% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s latest market pullback has pushed its MVRV ratio back into a critical zone that has historically been associated with macro correction lows and early-stage recovery setups. The MVRV metric now reflects a valuation reset similar to the conditions that preceded major rebound phases in prior cycles. Why The Reset Reinforces Bitcoin Value Proposition The crypto bearish performance echoes through the Bitcoin community as the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio dips into the critical 1.8 to 2.0 range, a zone significant for past cycle corrections where BTC found its footing before initiating a recovery. An ambassador and market expert, BitBull, has revealed on X that for those unfamiliar with its significance, the MVRV ratio compares BTC’s current market value to its realized value, which is what investors actually paid for their coins. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Flatline: Bull Score Crashes To 0 – What This Means For The Market However, when this ratio dips near 2, it signals that a majority of holders are hovering around their cost basis. At this point, there’s no greed left in the system, just conviction. Historically, this 1.8 to 2.0 MVRV range has coincided with major market bottoms in June 2021, November 2022, and April 2025, when the market felt broken, but BTC was quietly resetting. With the MVRV ratio currently re-entering this same critical zone, combined with the massive liquidations observed recently and a palpable sense of panic across the market, the pattern feels eerily familiar. Every time sentiment turns into hopelessness, on-chain data would show a different story of exhaustion, not collapse. BitBull personally views this phase as one of compression, not capitulation, indicating short-term pain but a long-term opportunity. The same market dynamics cycle that previously punished excessive leverage is now washing out the remaining weak hands. BitBull concluded that if history rhymes, this will be the part of the story where the bottom gets written, not the top. Why Liquidity Matters More Than Interest Rates Liquidity has been a crucial component of the Bitcoin market. A full-time crypto trader and investor, Daan Crypto Trades, has pointed out that if there is one macro factor that drives BTC and the broader crypto market, it’s the amount of global liquidity within the financial system, not interest rates. Related Reading: Bitcoin Liquidity Grabs: Institutions Target Low-Volume Zones To Move BTC Price This correlation is clear from comparing the global liquidity index with BTC’s price movements over the years. Daan has recently observed a shift where global liquidity has stopped expanding and begun to trend downwards again.  However, this change has put a halt to BTS’s upward momentum, combined with the anticipated profit-taking behavior observed during the 4-year market cycle. “Once global liquidity starts expanding at a rapid pace, the market environment for crypto will become significantly more supportive than it is currently,” the expert noted. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Ray Dalio has fired a shot across the macro bow, arguing that the Federal Reserve’s latest balance-sheet guidance risks “stimulating into a bubble” rather than stabilizing a weakening economy—an inversion of the classic post-crisis QE playbook with potentially seismic implications for hard assets, including Bitcoin. In a post titled “Stimulating Into a Bubble,” Dalio frames the Fed’s pivot—ending quantitative tightening and signaling that reserves will need to start growing again—as the next milestone in the late stage of the Big Debt Cycle. “Did you see that the Fed’s announcement that it will stop QT and begin QE?” he wrote, cautioning that, even if described as a technical maneuver, it is “an easing move… to track the progression of the Big Debt Cycle.” If balance-sheet expansion coincides with rate cuts and persistent fiscal deficits, Dalio warns, markets will be staring at a “classic monetary and fiscal interaction of the Fed and the Treasury to monetize government debt.” He adds that, in such a setup—high equity prices, tight credit spreads, low unemployment, above-target inflation, and an AI-led mania—“it will look to me like the Fed is stimulating into a bubble.” Related Reading: Did Bitcoin Just Bottom? Trader Says The Low Must Form Now The policy context for Dalio’s warning is not imaginary. After months of tightening liquidity and ebbing bank reserves, the Fed has announced it will end balance-sheet runoff (QT). Chair Jerome Powell underscored that, within the ample-reserves framework, the central bank will at some point have to add reserves again: “At a certain point, you’ll want reserves to start gradually growing to keep up with the size of the banking system and the size of the economy. So we’ll be adding reserves at a certain point,” he said at his October 29 press conference. Officials and many sell-side desks have emphasized that reserve management need not equal a return to crisis-era QE. The practical similarity: if the Fed is again a steady net buyer of Treasuries to maintain “ample” reserves as deficits persist, the market experience can rhyme with QE even without the label. While Dalio spars Bitcoin from his post, the mechanics are familiar to Bitcoin investors. He argues that when central banks buy bonds and push real yields down, “what happens next depends on where the liquidity goes.” If it remains in financial assets, “multiples expand, risk spreads compress, and gold rises,” producing “financial asset inflation.” Related Reading: Galaxy Digital Slashes Bitcoin EOY Price Target To $120,000 If it seeps into goods and services, inflation rises and real returns can erode. Crucially for cross-asset allocation, Dalio frames relative returns explicitly: with gold yielding 0% and, say, a 10-year Treasury yielding ~4%, gold outperforms if its price appreciation is expected to exceed that rate, especially as inflation expectations rise and the currency’s purchasing power falls. In that environment, “the more money and credit central banks are making, the higher I expect the inflation rate to be, and the less I like bonds relative to gold.” What This Means For Bitcoin Commentators immediately translated those mechanics for Bitcoin. “Fed resumes QE → more liquidity → real interest rates fall,” wrote Coin Bureau CEO Nick Puckrin. “Falling real rates → bonds & cash become unattractive → money chases risk and hard assets… Inflation risk rises → investors hedge with gold, commodities, and digital stores of value.” He highlighted Dalio’s own language—“gold rises so there is financial asset inflation,” and QE “pushes real yields down and pushes P/E multiples up”—before concluding: “Bitcoin thrives in precisely that environment… it’s digital gold on steroids.” Millionaire investor Thomas Kralow sharpened the timing risk embedded in Dalio’s framework: this would not be “stimulus into a depression” but “stimulus into a mania.” In his words, liquidity would “flood already overheated markets… stocks melt up, gold rips, and crypto… goes vertical,” with the usual risk-on sequence across the crypto complex. His caveat mirrors Dalio’s late-cycle caution: a liquidity melt-up now, then—on a longer horizon—re-acceleration in inflation, a forced policy reversal, and a violent bubble pop. For Bitcoin, the near-term transmission is straightforward. Lower real yields and expanding liquidity historically coincide with stronger performance of long-duration, high-beta, and scarcity narratives; similar to 1999-style melt-ups and late-cycle surges in hard assets, including gold—and, by extension, BTC as a “digital gold” proxy. But the medium-to-long-term tension is unresolved: if the same easing stokes renewed inflation pressure, the exit—the point at which policy must tighten into the bubble—becomes the regime break Dalio is flagging. Dalio’s bottom line is not a trading signal but a regime warning. “Whether this becomes a full and classic stimulative QE (with big net purchases) remains to be seen,” he writes. If the Fed is indeed easing into a bubble, Bitcoin may benefit on the way up—but that path, by Dalio’s own schema, ends with impact. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $99,717. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, has identified a concerning trend in the Bitcoin (BTC) and broader cryptocurrency market that adds to the ongoing sentiment of bearishness among investors.  Over 1 Million BTC Sold By OG Investors Since June In a recent post on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), Edwards highlighted that “OG” Bitcoin whales are actively cashing out their holdings. Related Reading: XRP Price Correction Is Far From Over: Bearish Divergence Signals Potential Revisit To $2.05 Accompanying his remarks was a chart illustrating the extent of this phenomenon, showing on-chain spending from “OG” Bitcoin holders—those who have held their assets for over seven years.  The chart prominently features two color-coded categories: orange for $100 million dumps and red for $500 million dumps, vividly demonstrating the scale of liquidations by these long-term investors.  Notably, the chart reveals that OG Bitcoin whales have been offloading their assets continuously since November 2024, which helps explain Bitcoin’s underperformance compared to other risk assets throughout 2025. Despite this selling pressure, the market has exhibited unusual resilience, absorbing these large sell-offs without experiencing the drastic price declines typically seen in previous cycles.  This behavior represents a new pattern for the market, as Wall Street analysts have noted that the net sales from long-term holders have surpassed 1 million Bitcoin since late June, according to research from Compass Point analyst Ed Engel. Potential Liquidations Driving Bitcoin To $70,000 A significant liquidation of leveraged crypto positions on October 10 further compounded the market’s struggles, with Bitcoin failing to regain critical support levels of $117,000 and then $112,000.  Markus Thielen, founder and CEO of Singapore-based 10X Research, expressed his concerns in an interview with Yahoo Finance, noting that the inability to reclaim these levels suggests that the market may indeed be in a bear cycle.  His firm, which had previously predicted Bitcoin would fall to $100,000, now believes the market could be “a few weeks away” from finding a buyable bottom. Related Reading: Samourai Wallet Co-Founder Sentenced To 5 Years In Prison For Money Laundering Thielen also warned of a potential correction that could see Bitcoin prices decline further, citing the recent strength of the US dollar as an additional challenge for the crypto markets.  He mentioned an “air pocket” below $93,000, indicating a lack of support that could lead to further liquidations, possibly driving prices down to the $70,000 range. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

The recent Bitcoin price crash below $100,000 has sparked widespread concern across the crypto market, but major institutional players like JPMorgan remain unshaken. According to reports, JPMorgan analysts have issued a surprisingly bullish outlook for Bitcoin, forecasting a potential surge to $170,000 in the near future. The bullish prediction has caught the attention of the broader crypto market, especially as volatility and liquidations continue to test investor sentiment and push prices down.  JPMorgan Maintains Bullish Bitcoin Price Outlook Eric Balchunas, a Senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, recently shared insights from JPMorgan’s analysts, led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, who presents a compelling bullish case for the Bitcoin price. In one of their research notes, the bank’s analysts argue that Bitcoin’s current market value is significantly undervalued compared to gold.  They suggest that once leverage conditions normalize, the leading cryptocurrency could climb toward $170,000. Notably, they expect BTC to reach this bullish target within the next 6-12 months, representing a 65.9% increase from its current price level of just over $102,400.   Related Reading: New XRP ETF Just Dropped, But Will Anything Be Different This Time? The analysts emphasized that the broader crypto market has already undergone a near 20% correction from previous highs, primarily driven by massive liquidations in perpetual futures contracts. The largest wave was observed on October 10, following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of aggressive tariffs against China, which triggered record liquidations that wiped out billions of dollars in leveraged positions across exchanges—the largest such event in the history of crypto.  Leaving the crypto market with no room for a recovery, another devastating liquidation event occurred on November 3, deepening the correction after a $120 million exploit on Market Maker Balancer reignited fears over DeFi protocol security. However, despite this widespread volatility and market downturn, JPMorgan analysts remain bullish on Bitcoin, likely viewing these liquidation events as necessary purges that have flushed out excessive speculation.  The analysts believe that perpetual deleveraging has finally come to an end, opening a potential path for more stable institutional accumulation. They suggest that Bitcoin’s value could recover and strengthen considerably from now to October 2026, supporting the bullish projection of a possible rally to a new all-time high. Market Analysts Share Similar Optimistic Predictions  Crypto market analyst Sulianto Indria Putra’s latest technical analysis echoes bullish optimism for Bitcoin’s price outlook. He highlights that the cryptocurrency’s weekly chart shows the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) continuing to act as a strong cyclical support level. Each time BTC has touched this EMA in past bull cycles, it has historically rebounded with strong upward momentum. Related Reading: Pundit Highlights Major Move For XRP And RLUSD, Will Price Follow? Based on the analyst’s chart, Bitcoin trades around $102,400, just above the 50-week EMA at approximately $100,900, where price action shows consolidation rather than breakdown. Putra argues that this positioning indicates that the market is forming a higher low within an ongoing bull trend. Despite widespread bearish sentiment and price declines, the analyst maintains that Bitcoin could still rally significantly to $150,000 between late 2025 and early 2026.  Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Over the years, a number of indicators have emerged that have helped to pinpoint the Bitcoin price top for each bull cycle. These have become quite popular due to their success rates during this time. As such, the Coinglass website collates all of these to form a progress chart that could tell when the Bitcoin price is nearing its peak. This progress chart is barely halfway gone, but the Bitcoin price is seeing major crashes, so what’s going on? Bull Market Peak Indicators Remain Untriggered A total of 30 Bitcoin bull market peak indicators are being tracked on the Coinglass website, and so far, not a single one has been triggered. This means that none of these 30 indicators point to the Bitcoin price already reaching its peak. This suggests that there is still more runway for the digital asset before it hits the cycle peak and begins the next decline into the bear market; thus, the tracker remains firmly in “Hold” territory. Related Reading: Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Crash To $87,000 If This Happens For example, the Bitcoin Dominance indicator is very high, sitting at 92.76%, very close to being triggered, but remains untouched. This comes while the Bitcoin dominance over the rest of the altcoin market remains high above 60%, but still below the 65% score required for the indicator to be triggered.. Another major indicator is the Bitcoin long-term holder supply, which tracks the rate at which long-term holders are dumping BTC. This indicator is often triggered when long-term holder supply falls below 13.5 million BTC, but at the time of this report, it is still sitting above 15 million BTC. Short-term holder supply is another indicator that also remains relatively low at this point. For this indicator to be triggered, the short-term holder supply needs to rise above 30% of the supply. However, it is sitting at less than 25%, suggesting that Bitcoin long-term holders are still dominating the market. Sell-Offs Are Dominating Bitcoin While the Bitcoin peak indicators remain untriggered and point toward a time to hold, it has not stopped the massive sell-offs that have been rocking the cryptocurrency. Over the last few weeks, reports have emerged of early Bitcoin whales dumping billions of dollars of BTC on the market. Related Reading: Here’s Why Dogecoin And Shiba Inu Prices Are Crashing, Is A Recovery Possible? Bitcoinist reported that between October and November, two early Bitcoin whales had sold more than $1.7 billion worth of BTC in a matter of weeks. These sell-offs had added to the initial bearish pressure that pushed the Bitcoin price down toward $100,000. Then, earlier this week, reports emerged of another OG whale who dumped 10,000 BTC, worth over $1 billion on the market. Given these, it seems that Bitcoin is not waiting for the cycle peak indicators to trigger before rallying. The whales are already pushing what looks to be a premature bear market with the massive sell-offs. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

The recent Bitcoin price crash is not just another dip in the market, according to analysts; it could be one of the most critical phases for its long-term bullish structure in this cycle. Crypto market expert Tara has emphasized that this ongoing retracement sets the foundation for Bitcoin’s next major bottom. Her analysis points to a potential Wave 5 correction that could drive the BTC price as low as $94,000 before the next major bullish trend begins.  Bitcoin Price Eyes Recovery After Wave 5 Retracement In a technical analysis shared on X social media, Tara disclosed that Bitcoin’s latest price correction “is probably one of the most important retraces it will have in a long time.” She views the decline as an essential process that prepares the leading cryptocurrency for a strong rebound in the future. Based on her Elliott Wave analysis, there are only two waves left before the broader market shift begins.  Related Reading: Analyst’s Full Market Breakdown Shows Why Bitcoin Price Is Headed For $120,000 The analyst notes that the primary reason the Bitcoin price crash is important is that it allows the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to recover, creating ideal conditions for a Bullish Divergence. Subsequently, this divergence could establish a solid bottom for BTC, which is a critical signal for the start of a renewed uptrend.  In her chart, Tara identifies a key Fibonacci Retracement zone between $103,400 and $104,900 as the resistance range for its current wave. The 0.382 Fib level is located near $103,478, where the Bitcoin price intersects with the Moving Average (MA), while the 0.5 Fib level aligns with $104,943. The analyst notes that this range could act as a crucial pivot zone before BTC resumes its correction in the final Wave 5 down to $94,000.  Additionally, the chart shows that Bitcoin is currently retracing from a previous low near the 0.618 Fibonacci Extension around $103,755.79. Trading volume has also declined by over 48% in the past 24 hours, while RSI remains weak at 33.96, signaling that the market is still oversold. Why The Path To $94,000 Matters For The Next Bull Cycle In responding to questions from crypto community members under her X post, Tara clarified that Bitcoin could first rise to $104,000, representing a 0.97% increase from current levels above $103,000, before crashing 9.6% to $94,000. She expects a price bottom to occur quickly and soon, whereas it may take longer for Bitcoin to build solid support before reversing into a new bullish phase.  Related Reading: Here’s What Happened The Last Time The Bitcoin Price Closed October In The Red Tara stated that the ongoing retracement could peak around the day of her analysis, but the bottom might take a few more days to form. Despite the anticipated “pain,” she reassured market watchers that the correction is necessary for Bitcoin’s next leg higher. She also emphasized that the market may not feel bullish until mid-December 2025. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has revealed how Bitcoin could be at risk of a further drawdown after trading at a significant discount to a key cost basis level. Bitcoin Could Retest Active Realized Price Next In its latest weekly report, Glassnode has talked about how Bitcoin has dropped a notable distance below the short-term holder (STH) Realized Price. The “Realized Price” here refers to an on-chain metric that tracks the cost basis of the average investor or address on the BTC network. To any investor, their break-even mark tends to be a level of particular importance, as retests of it can potentially flip their profit-loss situation. Due to this, Realized Price levels have often shown interactions with the asset’s price, as investors make moves to either exit with their money back or buy more to defend their cost basis. Related Reading: Cardano Retests Line That Has Triggered Strong Rebounds Since Nov 2024 A group that’s considered particularly sensitive to short-term volatility is the STH cohort, made up of the investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. The Realized Price of the STHs generally provides support during bullish trends, but with the recent market crash, Bitcoin has plummeted under it. As displayed in the above chart, Bitcoin at its post-crash levels is trading significantly below the STH Realized Price located at $112,500. This means that members of the cohort are now notably underwater. “Historically, discounts with such depth from this level have increased the likelihood of further downside toward lower structural supports,” explained Glassnode. One such support is the Active Realized Price, corresponding to the cost basis of the “economically active” part of the BTC supply. A chunk of the cryptocurrency’s supply has been dormant for so long that it can safely be presumed lost. In other words, these tokens will never make their way back into circulation. Such coins have no effect on the market today, so the Active Realized Price excludes them from the data, labeling them “economically inactive.” The report noted that this level “has often served as a critical reference point during extended corrective phases in prior cycles.” At present, the indicator is sitting near $88,500. Related Reading: Bitcoin & Ethereum Social Sentiment Collapses, But XRP Just Sees Disinterest The Bitcoin STH Realized Price isn’t the only level that the asset has lost recently. As on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has pointed out in an X post, the asset has also declined below the 365-day moving average (MA). CryptoQuant has described the line as “a key technical and psychological support level last broken at the start of the 2022 bear market.” Considering that Bitcoin has lost the STH Realized Price, and now, this level as well, it remains to be seen whether the asset will end up retesting the Active Realized Price and other lower support levels. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $103,300, down over 6% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

In a bold escalation of the crypto-policy debate, Senator Cynthia Lummis has publicly asserted that Bitcoin is the only solution capable of addressing the mounting national debt burden facing the United States. Her comments come amid rising tensions over monetary policy, inflation, and the role of digital assets in reshaping finance. How Bitcoin Could Reshape Treasury Markets Senator Cynthia Lummis has once again made headlines with her support for Bitcoin, stating in a recent Bloomberg interview that BTC is the only solution to America’s mounting national debt. According to a crypto news source, CryptosRus, posted on X, that Lummis expressed her pro-Bitcoin stance, mentioning that BTC is an asset that will continue to grow over time and is the key to offsetting the burgeoning national debt.   Related Reading: Bitcoin In The Crosshairs: US Treasury Secretary Reveals What Senate Democrats Could Learn From BTC Lummis highlighted the concept of a strategic BTC reserve, asserting that it represents the sole viable strategy to offset the national debt. However, CryptosRus noted that her consistent advocacy makes her one of Washington’s most ardent supporters of BTC, pushing for its integration to play the core role of US fiscal strategy. Several companies are actively preparing for this move. An emerging euro-denominated Bitcoin treasury backed by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, Treasury_BTC, has announced the appointment of Tycho Onnasch as its new head of BTC strategy. Onnasch is widely recognized within the BTC community for his foundational work on BTC scaling solutions, insightful market analysis, and deep conviction in BTC. Onnasch’s impressive background includes founding Zest Protocol, a leading BTC yield and landing platform, which is supported by BTC heavyweights Tim Draper and Binance Founder Changpeng Zhao. Academically, Tycho holds a degree from Oxford University, with a specialization in economic history. His achievements were further acknowledged with his inclusion in Forbes’ prestigious 30 under 30 Europe list. Onnasch’s role will be instrumental in driving the company’s BTC strategy and influencing its approach to market interpretation. A Healthier Foundation For Bitcoin Next Leg Higher CryptosRus has also reported that BTC has recently experienced its most significant open interest meltdown of its current cycle since the liquidation event that occurred on October 10. The data reveals substantial drops across major platforms, with Binance’s open interest decreasing by $4 billion, Bybit by over $3 billion, and Gate by more than $2 billion. Due to this liquidation event, traders have not rushed back in with leverage.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Recovery Lacks Conviction, Market Signals Another Pullback Risk Typically, leverage rebuilds quickly after a wipeout, but the slow recovery from this current scenario suggests that the market confidence is shaken. This sentiment explains the current slow and choppy price action, as the market operates with reduced leverage and fewer aggressive positions.  CryptosRus pointed out that when leverage undergoes such a significant reset, the market often leads to an increase in stability. It lowers the risk of another sudden cascade of liquidations and establishes a healthier foundation for the next price movements. The expert concluded that this is a BTC reset, not a breakdown. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The cryptocurrency market is currently facing significant bearish pressure, with Bitcoin (BTC) struggling to reclaim previously crucial support levels.  Recent data from CoinGecko indicates that Bitcoin has retraced nearly 6% over the past week, a decline that has impacted other major cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Binance Coin (BNB), and Solana (SOL), all of which have experienced double-digit losses during the same period. Galaxy Digital Lowers Bitcoin Price Target This downturn marks a stark contrast to the bullish sentiment observed earlier in October, when Bitcoin surged to record its current record high slightly above the $126,000 mark due to a wave of margin buying.  However, the euphoria was short-lived, as approximately $20 billion in leveraged positions across the crypto market were abruptly liquidated just days later on October 10, contributing to the ongoing lack of confidence among investors. Michael Novogratz’s Galaxy Digital recently revised its year-end Bitcoin price target down to $120,000, a significant cut from the previous estimate of $185,000, attributing this adjustment to the “significant leverage wipeout.”  Related Reading: Weakness In Major Cryptos: What Key Technical Metrics Indicate For Bitcoin, Ethereum, And Solana Market analytics firm CryptoQuant has pointed out that Bitcoin’s drop below its 365-day moving average near $102,000 could signal a deeper retreat. This moving average has historically acted as a critical support level during this bull cycle, and its failure to hold could lead to a more substantial correction in Bitcoin’s price.  In their analysis, CryptoQuant experts elaborated on the conditions necessary for Bitcoin to reverse its current trajectory and potentially reach new all-time highs. They observed that Bitcoin led a global risk-off movement, testing the critical $100,000 support level.  This decline was influenced by a stronger dollar and ongoing uncertainties regarding Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, which have dampened broader risk appetites across various asset classes.  Notably, there have been four consecutive sessions of approximately $1.3 billion in net outflows from US spot BTC ETFs, reversing what had been one of the strongest tailwinds for the market in 2025. This diminished demand in the spot market has coincided with forced deleveraging, resulting in over $1 billion in long liquidations at recent lows, which briefly breached intraday support before dip buyers stepped in.  Stabilization Of ETF Flows Crucial The options market has further intensified volatility, as dealers remain net short gamma around the $100,000 strike, leading to increased hedging activity near this critical level.  The $100,000 mark now stands as a psychological barrier, and any stabilization in ETF flows could shift market sentiment, provided no new macroeconomic shocks occur. On the macroeconomic front, the analysts assert that the current environment remains supportive, albeit clouded by the ongoing government shutdown in Washington. However, policy clarity remains elusive.  Related Reading: Ethereum Price Needs To Reclaim This Key Level To Prevent Drop To $1,700 The Federal Reserve’s recent 25 basis point cut in October, which included some dissenting opinions, was accompanied by a cautious tone that pushed back against expectations for another cut in December.  Markets are currently pricing in a 60-65% chance of a follow-up move, but as the Fed’s blackout period continues, policymakers may become more comfortable with the idea of pausing, which would help maintain a firm dollar and tight credit conditions. For Bitcoin to break higher sustainably, CryptoQuant’s analysis suggests that a reversal in exchange-traded fund outflows and renewed confidence in risk assets will likely be necessary.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

A day after another billion-dollar liquidation cascade, veteran crypto analyst Trader Mayne says his core thesis is unchanged: the bull cycle’s top is “not in,” and the market is in the process of printing a weekly cycle low that could set up one more leg higher into year-end. “I’ve been banging on the drum about the high not being in,” he said in a November 5 video, adding that he remains “a BTC maxi from the spot perspective,” despite tactical longs and shorts that have been hit-and-miss during the recent volatility. Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? Mayne framed the selloff—coming less than a month after an almost $20 billion wipeout on October 10—as a feature, not a bug, of late-cycle price discovery. He argued that speculative leverage rapidly re-accumulated in altcoins and that majors still offer sufficient volatility with clearer structure. “People were right back on with the leverage… You really can’t teach an old dog new tricks,” he said, while emphasizing he now “primarily focus[es] on the majors” and holds a core spot stack he hasn’t sold. His near-term timing anchor is cycle theory. Drawing on the four-year template popularized by Bob Loukas, Mayne said he expects the broader crypto top to land between late 2025 and early 2026, but he stressed the immediate setup is about nailing a weekly low within a narrow window that “extends until about mid next week, November 10.” Related Reading: Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Crash To $87,000 If This Happens He wants to see “time and space away from this low” and a reclaim of the monthly open around $110,000–$112,000 to confirm that the decline has been exhausted. If that structure forms, he intends to treat $98,000 as the operative bull-market invalidation on a weekly-closing basis: “That will confirm to me that this is our bull market invalidation… at least in the worst case you have a cut point at like $100k Bitcoin.” Mayne supplemented the timing view with a cross-asset read that he says has been reliable in prior impulses: gold tends to rally first, with Bitcoin following “about 60 to 90 days later.” He cited chart work showing gold’s advance now roughly 80–90 days old, which, if the relationship holds, would “line up very well with Bitcoin being ready to make its next move.” He also expects the BTC-versus-gold cross to bounce, implying outperformance of Bitcoin over the precious metal through year-end: “I’m pretty confident this chart is due for a big bounce and we’re going to see gold underperform Bitcoin for the remainder of the year.” A more subjective—but, in his telling, telling—input is the absence of a true “blow-off” in Bitcoin versus the vertical arcs seen in AI-heavy equities and gold. With megacaps like Nvidia running hard since the spring and gold printing a sharp leg higher, he argued that “it just doesn’t sit right… that Bitcoin hasn’t had [its blow-off],” suggesting latent upside energy remains to be released if the weekly low locks in. On market microstructure and seasonality, Mayne pointed to early-month dynamics. In many green months, he said, the low forms in the first third of the month, analogous to how Monday’s range often frames the week for intraday traders. If November is destined to close higher, an early-month low coupled with a monthly-open reclaim would be consistent with his cycle read. “If we’re bullish for November… I want to be a bull above the monthly open,” he said. The scenario analysis was not one-sided. Mayne repeatedly acknowledged bear signals that have emerged on higher timeframes, including a weekly structure break, prior sweeps on the weekly and monthly, and building momentum divergences. Related Reading: Galaxy Digital Slashes Bitcoin EOY Price Target To $120,000 He warned of the possibility that the recent range resolves as distribution—“maybe the banks literally came in… and they’ve just been distributing on us here”—and laid out a lower-high path in which a rally fizzles beneath or just above the prior peak before breaking down. “There’s a world where we make an all-time high, but it’s just a weak one… you’re going to have the biggest bear div of all bear divs up here,” he said, cautioning that a marginal new high followed by a swift rejection would flip his posture. In the medium-term, he remains open to two competing macro arcs. In the base case, the classic four-year rhythm holds, the late-2025 window marks the cycle top, and 2026 skews bearish, though he expects drawdowns on Bitcoin to be “truncated” relative to prior 80% collapses given deeper institutional participation. In the alternative, the market “right-translates”—an atypical extension in which a new all-time high could print as late as Q1 2026—forcing a reassessment of the four-year template. Either way, he said, his plan is to sell strength on the next leg and reassess if the market presents higher-low continuation after a new high: “If the market appears to still be bullish, guess what? I can get back on the bull train.” Mayne also flagged the US dollar as a 2026 risk pivot, arguing the DXY is carving a “serious low” on multi-month and yearly structures that could precede a “deflationary rally.” While not a one-to-one driver, he said a strong dollar tends to pressure crypto and other risk assets. That macro overlay, combined with what he views as froth in AI-linked equities, underpins his caution beyond the next advance. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $103,412. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is once again at a pivotal moment after briefly dipping below the $100,000 level on Tuesday, testing one of the most important psychological and structural supports of the cycle. The market remains tense as bulls attempt to defend this zone amid rising volatility and persistent selling pressure. Momentum has clearly slowed, and traders are now looking for signs of stabilization as the next directional move takes shape. Related Reading: ‘Bitcoin $100K Break Was Emotional’ – On-Chain Data Shows No Structural Damage According to top analyst Darkfost, a major shift is unfolding beneath the surface — Bitcoin’s open interest across major centralized exchanges continues to struggle to recover. Since the mass liquidation event on October 10, when over $10 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out, the use of leverage has cooled significantly. This has resulted in the largest 30-day decline in open interest of the entire cycle, signaling a widespread de-risking among futures traders. While this sharp decline reflects shaken confidence, it may also serve a constructive purpose. The unwinding of excessive leverage often precedes healthier, more sustainable price action, helping to flush out speculation and rebuild stronger market foundations. Leverage Flush Deepens as Exchanges See Billions in Open Interest Wiped Out Darkfost highlights that Binance has been at the center of this leverage unwind, recording a massive $4 billion decline in Bitcoin open interest over the past month. Other major platforms have faced similar drawdowns, with Bybit losing over $3 billion and Gate.io more than $2 billion. This widespread contraction underscores how aggressively leverage has been removed from the market following October’s liquidation shock. Back on October 10, global open interest dropped by more than $10 billion within hours, one of the most severe leverage resets of the cycle. Historically, after such dramatic events, traders rebuild positions quickly as volatility cools. However, this time the rebound has been notably absent — open interest remains depressed, suggesting that market confidence is still fragile. The ongoing correction continues to discourage over-leveraged activity, forcing traders to adopt more conservative positioning. While this has amplified short-term downside pressure, Darkfost notes that these deleveraging phases are ultimately healthy. They wash out excessive speculation, allowing stronger hands to reaccumulate and laying the groundwork for the next sustained rally. In the medium term, this compression of leverage tends to create a more stable, organic market structure — one driven by spot demand rather than derivatives-driven momentum. Related Reading: Anti-CZ Whale Flips Bullish: Now Long $109M In Ethereum While Holding Massive Meme Shorts Bitcoin Retests Key Support After Heavy Selling Bitcoin is showing signs of stabilization after a sharp sell-off that briefly pushed prices below the critical $100,000 level earlier this week. As of now, BTC trades around $103,000, attempting to recover but facing persistent resistance from the short-term moving averages. The chart shows that Bitcoin remains well below the 50-day (blue) and 100-day (green) moving averages — both now acting as dynamic resistance zones around $110,000. The 200-day MA (red) near $102,000 currently serves as the key support level, and a sustained close below it could open the door to deeper downside, potentially toward $95,000. Related Reading: Balancer Hacker Now Converting Loot to Ethereum: Stolen Funds Surge To $116.6M The recent bounce reflects short-covering and some dip-buying activity, but momentum remains weak. The market structure suggests a shift from bullish to corrective, as lower highs continue to form. For bulls to regain control, Bitcoin would need to reclaim the $110,000–$112,000 region — where heavy liquidity and previous breakdown levels align. Focus remains on whether buyers can hold the $100K–$103K zone. Losing this range would likely trigger another wave of liquidations, while a successful defense could provide the base for a mid-term recovery rally. The market remains fragile, with sentiment still leaning cautious. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) is hovering around a precarious stage below the $100,000 psychological level as supply in profit just crashed to a new 2025 low. Amid this decline, Glassnode analysts Chris Beamish, Antoine Colpaert, and CryptoVizArt highlight a complex interplay of structural weakness, cautious investor behavior, and decreased institutional demand. Bitcoin also remains oversold; however, it has yet to enter full capitulation. This suggests that price is fragile but not broken, balancing between recovery and the risk of a deeper decline.  Bitcoin Supply In Profit Crash Signals Weak Demand And Price Bitcoin’s supply in profit has fallen sharply, hitting its lowest level of 2025 and reflecting the broader slowdown in market momentum. Glassnode analysts note that this decline indicates fading demand and persistent sell pressure as the BTC price consolidates near $100,000, after falling 21% from its all-time high above $126,000.  Related Reading: Pundit Highlights Major Move For XRP And RLUSD, Will Price Follow? According to the report, roughly 71% of Bitcoin’s supply remains in profit, near the lower edge of the typical 70% – 90% range seen in mid-cycle slowdowns. This drop marks the lowest probability level of the year, suggesting that BTC’s price stability and recovery may depend on whether fresh demand can return to the market in the coming weeks.  The analysis also disclosed that Bitcoin has broken below the Short-Term Holder’s cost basis of roughly $112,500, and is now struggling to recover, confirming that its earlier bullish phase has ended. They say that the market has been unable to regain a solid footing since the October 10 flash crash and reset, with prices hovering just above the Active Investor’s Realized Price at $88,500.  Additionally, on-chain data shows that long-term holders are contributing to the bearish pressure. Since July, Bitcoin’s total supply has decreased from 14.7 million BTC to 14.4 million BTC, representing a net reduction of approximately 300,000 coins. Glassnode analysts estimate that around 2.4 million BTC have been spent during this period, which is roughly 12% of its circulating supply.  Unlike earlier in the market cycle, these long-term holders are now selling into weakness rather than strength, signaling fatigue and reduced sentiment, likely due to the consistent market declines. While the Relative Unrealized Loss remains moderate at 3.1%, Glassnode analysts highlight that the combination of declining profitability and steady long-term distribution leaves the Bitcoin price in a vulnerable position near $100,000.  Related Reading: Analyst Reveals What Ripple’s Latest Launch In The US Means For The XRP Price ETF Outflows And Unsteady Derivatives Deepen Market Caution In addition to the decline in Bitcoin’s supply in profit, off-chain indicators also point to caution. Glassnode analysts note that US Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows between $150 million and $700 million per day over the past two weeks, reversing the strong inflow streak from September and early October. This slowdown reflects a significant decline in institutional appetite, with capital rotating out of Bitcoin exposure as the price declines.  Bitcoin’s Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has also turned negative on Binance and major exchanges. In derivatives, analysts noted that the Perpetual Market Directional Premium has declined from $338 million in April to $118 million per month, indicating that traders are pulling back on risk and avoiding aggressive long positions.   For now, Bitcoin remains in a delicate position, oversold but structurally intact. Glassnode experts have stated that the next key test lies at $112,000 and $113,000, where a sustained recovery would signal renewed demand, while further weakness could deepen the correction.   Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Galaxy Digital has cut its 2025 year-end Bitcoin target to $120,000 from $185,000 in a new research alert circulated on November 5 and shared via screenshots on X by Alex Thorn, the firm’s head of firmwide research. In the note titled “Bitcoin Outlook Update: Lowering 2025 YE Target to $120,000,” Thorn situates the downgrade squarely in the context of a “major, multi-week selloff,” writing that “Bitcoin is trading below $100k for the first time since late June, with other cryptos faring worse.” Thorn stresses that the shift is cyclical rather than existential, stating plainly: “While bitcoin’s structural investment case remains strong, cyclical dynamics have evolved.” The firm frames the current backdrop as a decisive turn in market microstructure: “Bitcoin has entered a new phase – what we call the ‘maturity era’ – in which institutional absorption, passive flows, and lower volatility dominate.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Crashes Below $99,000: Expert Breaks Down Why That regime change helps explain both the tempered year-end target and the altered cadence of price discovery that Galaxy now expects. As Thorn puts it, “If bitcoin can maintain the ~$100k level, we believe the almost three-year bull market will remain structurally intact, though the pace of future gains may be slower.” Short-term optimism is not abandoned: “Still, we think nearing prior all-time highs before year-end is a reasonable target for short-term bulls.” Reasons For The Bitcoin Downgrade The downgrade aggregates several identifiable drags, beginning with distribution patterns across the holder base and the market’s capacity to absorb them. Galaxy writes: “Significant coin transfers from old holders to ETFs and new institutional buyers signal maturity, not weakness, but have presented headwinds.” This redistribution—whales handing supply to passive and institutional channels—may strengthen long-term ownership but has, in Galaxy’s telling, blunted near-term momentum. Positioning and leverage are the second leg of the argument. Thorn flags the “significant leverage wipeout from Oct. 10” and adds that it “continues to dent market liquidity and confidence.” The October flush sits at the center of Galaxy’s cyclical reassessment: forced de-risking weakened order-book depth just as large-holder distribution accelerated, leaving price vulnerable into the latest drawdown. A third component is the rotation of capital and narrative attention into other trades. Galaxy is explicit that “Bitcoin started the year as the hottest investment narrative, but AI, hyperscalers, gold, and the Magnificent 7 have absorbed capital and attention that might otherwise flow into BTC.” That diversion extends into crypto-adjacent plumbing as well: “Rapid stablecoin growth has redirected venture and equity interest into fintech and payments infrastructure.” The net effect, according to the note, has been a drag on incremental demand for direct BTC exposure and a tougher funding environment for pure-play Bitcoin vehicles. Retail participation, which defined prior peaks, is notably absent at sustained scale, and when it surfaces it tends to be flighty. Thorn writes: “Retail never fully returned at scale post-2021; when it did, the memecoin mania fostered short-termism that is not conducive to understanding and adopting bitcoin’s long-term value proposition.” Without sustained retail sponsorship, Galaxy expects ETF and institutional flows to “define BTCUSD behavior,” adding that “Passive Flows Dominate… lowering volatility and moderating cycles.” This, again, is part of the “maturity era” thesis rather than a repudiation of Bitcoin’s core investment case. Related Reading: ‘Bitcoin $100K Break Was Emotional’ – On-Chain Data Shows No Structural Damage Policy timing features as a missing catalyst rather than a negative shock. The note observes that “Despite positive rhetoric, no government bitcoin purchases have been announced. In general, the US government has been very quiet on the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR).” Galaxy does not ascribe immediate downside to the absence, but it removes a bullish tail event that some investors had hoped would materialize this year. Corporate treasuries and listed “Bitcoin-as-reserve” plays also receive a recalibration. Galaxy argues that the next iteration will demand business fundamentals rather than balance-sheet optics alone: “BTCTC Phase 2: The next wave of bitcoin treasury companies will mostly need revenue generation and operating businesses beyond reserve accumulation to differentiate themselves and thrive.” The firm also points to “poor performance of BTC treasury companies” as part of the year’s defining headwinds. Taken together, the factors map to a post-$100k market defined less by reflexive retail surges and more by methodical institutional accumulation. Galaxy calls it the “Post-$100k Regime,” in which “Bitcoin’s ascendance above six figures earlier this year marked the transition from early-era speculation to mature, institutionalized markets.” The conclusion threads the needle between structural conviction and cyclical prudence: “As a result of this market performance, and other factors, we are revising our 2025 year-end bullish bitcoin target from $185,000 to $120,000.” At press time, BTC traded at $103,093. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The current Bitcoin price crash is being driven by major sell-offs from large whales as they offload massive early BTC holdings. In addition to this, though, there are also chart formations that suggest that the Bitcoin price crash is only in its beginning stages. This comes after the cryptocurrency closed the month of October in the red for the first time in seven years, setting a precedent for a likely bearish close to the year. Higher Low Trendline Needs To Hold The current Bitcoin price downtrend began after the cryptocurrency hit a new all-time high back in August. The rejection at $126,000 created the cascade of bearish pressure that has now plagued the market, causing major losses to altcoins as a result. But even with the price already crashing by a significant margin since then, it is likely that the decline is not yet over. Related Reading: Analyst’s Full Market Breakdown Shows Why Bitcoin Price Is Headed For $120,000 Crypto analyst TradingShot highlights the current trend as being similar to what was seen back in January-February 2025, where a fractal formed after the Bitcoin price broke below its higher lows trendline. Presently, the Bitcoin price chart is following a higher low trendline formed after the infamous October 10 flash crash. As the analyst explains, this trendline needs to hold for a recovery to take place. In the event that the trendline does break, then the Bitcoin price could be in trouble, similar to what was seen at the start of the year. A rejection from this level would inevitably lead to a double-digit crash. If the crash sticks to the same fractal seen in January-February, then the analyst predicts that a 32% decline could be in the works. This would put it on the 2.0 Fibonacci Extension level, and such a crash could mean a decline to as low as $87,000 before support is established again. What A Bearish October Means For The Bitcoin Price Interestingly, historical performance also supports the crypto analyst’s theory that a double-digit crash could be in the works for the Bitcoin price. This has to do with the performance in October and what the trend says could happen in the month of November as a result. Related Reading: Dogecoin Volume Spike To $2 Billion Might Be Bearish, Here’s Why Whenever the Bitcoin price has closed October in the red, the subsequent month of November has always ended weakly as well. The last time that Bitcoin saw a red October close was back in 2018, and what followed was a 36.4% crash in November. Given this, it is likely that the Bitcoin price does follow this trend, especially with major sell-offs from BTC whales. Naturally, a double-digit crash would mean that the Bitcoin price will crash below $100,000 for the first time in four months. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Despite a slight recovery in cryptocurrency prices on Wednesday, experts remain divided on the future direction of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL). The market is at a crossroads, with some analysts anticipating a deeper correction, while others see the potential for a renewed recovery. iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF Hits 52-Week Low  According to a report from Barron’s, all three cryptocurrencies have attracted attention from major exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuers and President Trump’s administration, spurring hopes that increased institutional adoption could help stabilize volatility.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Falls Under $100,000: Elliott Wave Analysis Forecasts Decline To $70,000 The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF is currently trading more than 20% below its recent 52-week high, which was reached less than a month ago. This peak coincided with the formation of a bearish evening star pattern, and the ETF experienced a notable decline of 3% on October 7.  The drop below the $70 mark has added to the bearish sentiment, with the ETF declining in three of the last four weeks, closing within the lower half of its trading range.  This week alone has seen an 8% drop, and the ETF recently undercut its 200-day simple moving average, marking a steep 5.5% decline—the largest single-day drop since April 7.  For investors to regain confidence, analysts assert that it is crucial for the ETF to hold near current levels and reclaim the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA), a key indicator of bullish momentum. Historically, recoveries have taken about six sessions, as seen back in April. Ethereum ETF Faces 17% Weekly Decline Ethereum, represented through the Grayscale Ethereum Trust ETF, has experienced a more pronounced decline, now down 34% from its annual peak and showing a negative year-to-date performance of 5%. This week alone, the ETF has dropped 17%, roughly double the decline seen in the Bitcoin Trust ETF.  However, the sharp pullback follows a significant increase of over 220% from early April to late August, making the current retreat appear both prudent and necessary.  Notably, the fund has not yet pierced its 200-day simple moving average, having touched it recently while retesting a breakout above a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern.  The behavior of the ETF around this critical moving average in the coming week will be crucial; if stability can be achieved, it may present an attractive buying opportunity. After facing resistance at the $40 level on August 22, recent price action could be forming a double-bottom base, provided that the recent lows hold. Heightened Concerns For Solana Solana’s performance has been the most concerning, with its ETF plummeting 41% from its most recent 52-week high set in September. This heightened volatility may reflect the asset’s relative newness, as it began trading only in April.  Related Reading: Ethereum Price Needs To Reclaim This Key Level To Prevent Drop To $1,700 The Solana ETF peaked on September 18 and has since formed a bearish island reversal pattern. Over the past seven weeks, it has fallen in five of those, with three weeks recording double-digit declines.  This week alone, the ETF has dropped another 19% through just two trading sessions. On the daily chart, a break below the bearish head-and-shoulders pivot at $19 raises concerns of a potential measured move down to $12. Ultimately, the report suggests that a potential recovery for the trio would imply further inflows into these exchange-traded funds. This would also indicate a new wave of bullish sentiment returning to the market.  At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $104,190, marking a 3% surge over the past 24 hours. During the same time frame, ETH and SOL also recorded gains of 5% and 4%, respectively.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Data shows sentiment around Bitcoin and Ethereum has plummeted on social media, but XRP and other altcoins are just observing apathy. Social Media Traders Have Turned Bearish On Bitcoin & Ethereum In a new insight post, on-chain analytics firm Santiment has talked about how sentiment around cryptocurrencies has changed on social media following the latest market crash. The indicator of relevance here is the “Positive/Negative Sentiment,” which tells us how bullish sentiment compares against the bearish one on the major social media platforms. Related Reading: Altcoin Winter Here? Ethereum, Solana Activity Plunges The metric works by going through social media posts/messages/threads to separate them into positive and negative using a machine-learning model. Once the posts have been divided, it counts up the number in each category and takes the ratio between them. First, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Positive/Negative Sentiment for Bitcoin over the last few months: As shown in the graph above, Bitcoin Positive/Negative Sentiment has recently plunged, suggesting bearish sentiment has risen on social media platforms. The current value of the indicator is the third lowest for the past six months. Interestingly, the two instances with lower levels coincided with local bottoms for the cryptocurrency. This pattern of the asset going against the crowd opinion has actually been witnessed regularly throughout its history. Considering this, the shift to a negative sentiment on social media may turn out to be a bullish signal for the BTC price. Bitcoin isn’t the only cryptocurrency that’s witnessing a surge in bearish sentiment right now. As Santiment has pointed out, Ethereum has also seen a similar trend in the Positive/Negative Sentiment. In fact, the negative comments have been even more intense for Ethereum, as the current value is the second lowest for the last six months. “Only the flash crash back on October 10th, when Trump temporarily threatened 100% tariffs on China, saw a higher level of bearish vs. bullish comments,” noted the analytics firm. Interestingly, while Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen this development, most other assets in the sector are showing a different trend. Below is a chart that shows how the Positive/Negative Sentiment currently looks for XRP, the coin ranked fourth by market cap. From the graph, it’s apparent that the indicator is sitting at a neutral level for XRP, implying social media users aren’t leaning one way or the other, despite the volatility. Related Reading: CryptoQuant Head Reveals Reason Behind Bearish Bitcoin Trend “Unlike the top two marketcaps in crypto, XRP is showing what most other altcoins are showing… a surprising level of disinterest,” said Santiment. “It’s clear that most of retail has shifted their focus to just talking about BTC (and ETH, to a slightly lesser extent).” BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $102,600, down more than 9% over the last week. The trend in the price of the coin over the last five days | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView Featured image from Dall-E, Santiment.net, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has officially lost its footing below the critical $100,000 level, rattling markets and fueling a wave of fear-driven selling. The move comes after a sharp surge in bearish sentiment, with CryptoQuant data indicating that Bitcoin’s latest decline is largely psychological rather than fundamentally driven. Related Reading: Anti-CZ Whale Scores Nearly $100M On ASTER And Altcoin Shorts As Market Sells Off Over the past several days, the market has shifted from confidence to panic at remarkable speed. The Fear & Greed Index plunged to 21 — deep in fear territory — just days after BTC briefly tapped $107K. Bullish narratives calling for a $150K–$200K breakout have vanished from social platforms, replaced by anxiety, disbelief, and calls for deeper downside. Google search trends for Bitcoin interest cooled significantly after October highs, mirroring weakening retail enthusiasm. Meanwhile, altcoin sentiment collapsed to extreme lows, hitting -81 as traders capitulated across the board. This emotional swing is not unusual for crypto. With a relatively small market structure and large speculative participation, crypto assets remain highly sensitive to sentiment shocks. In many cases, price movements are influenced more by crowd psychology than by on-chain fundamentals. While the sell-off has been intense, analysts note that network data remains resilient — raising the question of whether panic, rather than macro reality, is driving this correction. On-Chain Data Shows Strength Beneath the Sell-Off Despite Bitcoin’s sharp drop below $100K, on-chain data paints a very different picture beneath the surface. According to a CryptoQuant report by XWIN Research Japan, there is no evidence of structural weakness or network deterioration — only a sentiment-driven correction. Key network metrics remain solid. Exchange withdrawals have surged, suggesting investors are moving BTC into self-custody rather than rushing to exit the market. Meanwhile, UTXOs in loss have risen to roughly 12%, signaling discomfort — but still far from levels associated with true capitulation phases in past cycles. This indicates that most market participants remain positioned for longer-term upside. At the protocol level, Bitcoin continues to show strength. Hashrate remains near all-time highs at approximately 1.1 ZH/s, reinforcing network security and miner confidence. Whale ratio has trended lower, pointing to reduced sell-side pressure from large holders. Liquidity dynamics also support a potential rebound. Over $10.7B in stablecoins has recently flowed into Binance, providing substantial dry powder for future accumulation. Realized cap data shows long-term holders trimming some profits, but importantly, incoming demand continues to absorb supply. Overall, the pullback appears sentiment-driven rather than fundamental. On-chain signals suggest the broader uptrend remains intact — making this volatility a test of conviction, not the start of a structural reversal. Related Reading: Balancer Hacker Now Converting Loot to Ethereum: Stolen Funds Surge To $116.6M Key Support Under Pressure, Short-Term Trend Weakens Bitcoin continues to trade under heavy pressure following its breakdown from the $110,000 range, slipping below the psychological $100,000 level before stabilizing near current support around $101,800. The 4-hour chart shows a clear transition into a lower-highs, lower-lows structure, confirming short-term bearish momentum. Moving averages reinforce this weakness: price is trading below the 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages, signaling that bears remain in control. The sharp impulse move down was met with a spike in volume, suggesting panic-driven selling rather than a slow, distribution-based decline. Since then, volume has normalized as price attempts to consolidate above the $100,000 region. This zone now serves as a pivotal demand area — a break below it could expose deeper downside toward $95,000–$98,000, where stronger historical liquidity sits. Related Reading: Whale Piles Into ASTER Shorts After CZ’s Comment – $52.8M On the Line Despite the selloff, Bitcoin is showing early signs of stabilization. The wick below $100K indicates buyers stepped in aggressively at that level, preventing further liquidation cascades. However, bulls need to reclaim the $105,000–$107,000 band to neutralize short-term downside pressure and signal a potential recovery. For now, the trend remains fragile as market sentiment cools and traders reassess positioning. Price stability above $100K is critical — losing this range could trigger another wave of forced selling, while defending it may set the stage for a relief bounce. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin endured one of its sharpest selloffs of the year on Tuesday, knifing below the six-figure threshold and printing lows around the $99,000 area on major composites before rebounding. At press time, bitcoin (BTC) hovered near $101,700 after an intraday trough just above $99,000 on widely used benchmarks, marking a fall of roughly 6% day-over-day and the lowest print since June. The slide came as US equities limped into mid-week, with the Nasdaq up 20.9% year-to-date and the S&P 500 up 15.1% as of Tuesday’s close—gains that underscore how much bitcoin has lagged other risk assets during long stretches of 2025. That divergence, together with a growing body of ETF-flow data showing several straight sessions of net outflows from US spot bitcoin funds into early November, provided the macro backdrop for a fragile crypto tape. Independent tallies from Farside/SoSoValue and multiple outlets point to a roughly $1.3–$1.4 billion cumulative bleed over four trading days into November 3–4, led by BlackRock’s IBIT. Why Is Bitcoin Price Down? Into that context, Joe Consorti—Head of Growth at Horizon (Theya, YC)—argues the selloff is less a loss of conviction than a structural handoff of supply. In a video analysis posted late November 4 US time, he framed the day’s move as “one of its roughest days of the year, down more than 6 percent, falling to $99,000 for the first time since June,” adding that while equities would call that “the start of a bear market… for Bitcoin, though, this is typical of a bull market drawdown.” He noted that “we’ve already weathered two separate 30 percent drawdowns during this bull run,” and characterized the present action as “a transfer of Bitcoin’s ownership base from the old guard to the new guard.” Related Reading: CryptoQuant Head Reveals Reason Behind Bearish Bitcoin Trend Consorti anchored his thesis to a now-viral framework from macro investor Jordi Visser: bitcoin’s “silent IPO.” In Visser’s Substack essay—shared widely since the weekend—he posits that 2025’s rangebound price belies an orderly, IPO-like distribution as early-era holders access the deepest liquidity the asset has ever had through ETFs, institutional custodians and corporate balance sheets. “Early-stage investors… need liquidity. They need an exit. They need to diversify,” Visser wrote, arguing that methodical selling “results [in] a sideways grind that drives everyone crazy.” Consorti adopted the frame bluntly: “This isn’t panic selling, it’s the natural evolution of an asset that’s reached maturity… a transfer of ownership from concentrated hands to distributed ones.” Evidence for that churn has been visible on-chain. Multiple instances of Satoshi-era wallets and miner addresses reanimating this quarter—some after 14 years—have been documented, including July’s duo of 10,000-BTC wallets and late-October movement from a 4,000-BTC miner address. While not dispositive that coins are being market-sold, the pattern is consistent with supply redistributing from early concentrates to broader, regulated channels. Technically, Consorti cast the drop as part of “digestion,” not exhaustion. “The RSI tells us Bitcoin is at its most oversold level since April, when the last leg of the bull run began. Every drawdown this cycle, 30%, 35%, and now 20%, has built support rather than destroyed it.” He added a key conditional: “If we spend too much time below $100,000, that could suggest the distribution isn’t done… perhaps we’re in for a bull-market reversal into a bear market.” Macro, however, is intruding. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bps on October 29 to a 3.75%–4.00% target range, but Chair Jerome Powell carefully pushed back on the idea of an automatic December cut, citing “strongly differing views” inside the FOMC and a “data fog” from the ongoing government shutdown. Markets promptly tempered their odds for further near-term easing. Consorti’s warning that bitcoin “is extremely correlated” to risk-asset drawdowns therefore looms large: if equities lurch meaningfully lower or funding stress reappears, crypto will feel it. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run: Over Or Just Paused? CryptoQuant CEO Presents The Data If Visser’s “silent IPO” is right, ETFs are both symptom and salve. They have delivered the two-sided depth to absorb legacy supply but also introduced a new, faster-moving cohort whose redemptions can amplify downdrafts. That dynamic showed up again this week in the four-day string of net outflows concentrated in IBIT, even as longer-term assets under management remain enormous by historical standards. Consorti’s conclusion was starkly patient, not euphoric. “For every seller looking to liquidate their position, there’s a new participant stepping in for the long haul… It’s slow, it’s uneven, and it’s psychologically draining, but once it’s finished, it unlocks the next leg higher. Because the marginal seller is gone, and what’s left is a base of holders who don’t need to sell.” Whether Tuesday’s pierce of the six-figure floor proves the climactic flush—or merely another chapter in a months-long ownership transfer—will hinge on how quickly price reclaims and bases above $100,000, how ETF flows stabilize, and whether the Fed’s path from here restores risk appetite or starves it. For now, the most important story in bitcoin may be happening under the surface, not on the chart. At press time, BTC traded at $101,865. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com