Amid the continued panicky action in crypto, online chatter suggested Strategy was unloading some of its bitcoin stack, a rumor Executive Chairman Michael Saylor shot down Friday morning.
The shares slumped more than 13% in pre-market trading as the price of bitcoin tumbled.
JPMorgan has put a numerical marker under this Bitcoin cycle, telling clients that the market’s “pain threshold” now sits near $94,000 — a level the bank frames as both a mining-economics floor and an answer to the question of how low spot can realistically trade before fundamentals start to bite. According to reporting by The Block, the analyst team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou argues that “Bitcoin’s downside from current levels appears to be ‘very limited,’” because they “see its support price at around $94,000.” How Low Can Bitcoin Go? The core of the call is JPMorgan’s updated estimate of Bitcoin’s production cost. In their latest note, cited by The Block, the analysts say the all-in cost to mine one bitcoin has risen from about $92,000 to roughly $94,000 as network difficulty has surged over recent months. That jump in difficulty forces miners to deploy more hashpower per block, lifting the marginal cost per coin. The team reiterates a framework they have used in prior cycles, stressing that “the bitcoin production cost has empirically acted as a floor for bitcoin,” so a higher cost mechanically pulls the support zone higher as well. Related Reading: Bitcoin Death Cross Is Coming: Don’t Be Fooled By The Name On JPMorgan’s numbers, the ratio of spot price to production cost now sits just above 1.0, close to the lower end of its historical range. That implies miners’ operating margin is thin and that there is limited room for an extended move far below the modeled cost without triggering stress in the mining sector. From that perspective, the bank’s $94,000 level is not presented as a precise line in the sand, but as a statistically grounded region where downside risk becomes compressed because miners’ incentives to keep selling into weakness deteriorate. The same note keeps a much more optimistic medium-term scenario in place. JPMorgan reiterates a 6–12 month upside case around $170,000 per bitcoin, derived from a volatility-adjusted comparison with gold. As summarized by The Block, the analysts estimate that Bitcoin currently “consumes” around 1.8 times more risk capital than gold, yet still has a smaller market capitalization — roughly $2.1 trillion versus about $6.2 trillion in private-sector gold investment via ETFs, bars and coins. To close that gap on a volatility-adjusted basis, they calculate Bitcoin’s market cap would need to rise by about 67%, “implying a theoretical bitcoin price of close to $170,000.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Crashes To $98,000 As HODLer Selling Accelerates The Block also highlights how this view fits into JPMorgan’s recent track record of calls. In an earlier note last month, the same team argued that Bitcoin looked significantly undervalued relative to gold, implying upside toward about $165,000 by year-end. Panigirtzoglou has since dialed back the timing, telling The Block that, “it would not be realistic to expect this price target by year’s end,” given recent liquidations and very weak sentiment, and reframing $170,000 as a 6–12 month scenario rather than a near-term objective. The note further recalls an August projection around $126,000 by year-end; Bitcoin later printed an all-time high above $126,200 on Oct. 6 before a record liquidation event on Oct. 10 abruptly reset positioning. Those earlier pieces of research are consistent with a broader framework JPMorgan has been articulating publicly. In a separate analysis earlier this month, also led by Panigirtzoglou and reported by MarketWatch, the bank argued that post-October deleveraging left Bitcoin “very cheap to gold” on a volatility-adjusted basis and concluded that “this mechanical exercise thus implies significant upside for bitcoin over the next 6–12 months,” with fair value again clustering near $170,000. What the new note, as relayed by The Block, adds is a more explicit downside anchor: as long as network difficulty and energy-input assumptions keep the estimated production cost around $94,000, JPMorgan sees that level as the effective floor that answers how low Bitcoin can go before mining economics force the market to confront its constraints. At press time, BTC traded at $97,505. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Over the last few weeks, analysts have been predicting that the Bitcoin price could crash again after the initial October 10 crash. This is because of the weakening market trends that have shown that Bitcoin is still favoring a downtrend at this point. Crypto analyst Lixing_Gan on the TradingView website also shares this view, with the appearance of a descending trend pattern that suggests that the Bitcoin price is more likely to fall than rise. Bitcoin Price At Risk Of Major Crash Below $90,000 So far, the Bitcoin price has been able to maintain its hold above the psychological level of $100,000, despite bears briefly pushing the price below this level. It has been trading in a tight range of $101,000 to $105,000 during this time, but with no notable momentum that could push its price higher. This tight range, unfortunately, plays into the descending pattern that maps a path downward. Related Reading: Abundance of Catalysts Suggests XRP Price Could Take Off This Week According to the crypto analyst’s chart, the descending pattern was formed at the start of October, well before the historic 10/10 crash. This means that the bearish trend had begun much earlier, and the resultant crash was only in response to bullish positions weakening across the board. This was triggered by massive sell-offs, mainly among whales and holders that have held onto their BTC for a notable amount of time. Over the last few months, these long-term holders have sold off more than 390,000 BTC, triggering billions of dollars in selling pressure. Given this, it is no surprise that the Bitcoin price broke down the way it did at the start of October. These sell-offs from the long-term holders, though, the crypto analyst believes, are a distribution phase. As they sell off their holdings to newer investors, the cost basis for each Bitcoin begins to rise, increasing the likelihood that buyers will hold for longer. Looking at the descending trendline from here, technical analysis suggests that the Bitcoin price is still testing the upper bound of the trendline. As the analyst explains, this upper bound happens to coincide with $106,500, which has been a major resistance for the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Institutions Have Been Buying Solana Every Day For 2 Weeks, Is $300 Possible? In addition to the resistance above $106,000, the Bitcoin Ichimoku cloud also shows a rise in bearish pressure. This means that the $100,000 psychological level is still at risk, and if it breaks, then the current decline could deepen. The targets for this Bitcoin price crash lie well below the $90,000 level. The first major support is at $93,000, but a break below here could extend the decline to as low as $88,000 before the bulls find their footing again. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Ether strengthens against bitcoin, raising hopes of a bullish breakout.
Investors have pulled out $2.64 billion over three weeks
On-chain data shows Bitcoin long-term holders have been ramping up their selling recently, a potential reason behind BTC’s fall under $100,000. Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Have Been Booking Profits In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed about the latest trend in the supply of the Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs). These are referred to as the investors holding their coins for a period longer than 155 days, without selling or involving them in a transaction on the blockchain. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Most Fearful Since March: Is A Bottom Near? Statistically, the longer an investor holds onto their coins, the less likely they become to sell them in the future. As such, the LTHs with their long holding times are usually considered to be resolute entities. Despite their resilience, however, there are times when even these diamond hands can decide to part with their holdings. One such time happens to be right now. As the below chart shared by Glassnode shows, the Bitcoin LTHs have been reducing their supply recently. This latest wave of selling from the LTHs isn’t their first for the cycle. As is apparent in the graph, these HODLers sold into both the 2024 rallies as well. In between these selloffs, their supply was rising with significant speed. Something to note is that while LTH selling is instantly registered in the chart, the same isn’t true for buying. When the LTH supply grows, it doesn’t mean any accumulation is happening in the present. Rather, what it implies is that some coins were bought five months ago, which have now been held long enough to clear the LTH threshold. The last wave of coin maturation into the LTH cohort peaked in mid-2025. Since then, the group has been shedding coins at a variable rate. The latest trend has clearly been that of acceleration, as the below chart visualizes. The accelerating wave of distribution from the LTHs has arrived as Bitcoin has been suffering from bearish momentum. It’s possible that some of the HODLers are thinking this could be their last chance to take profits, so they have decided to exit. Related Reading: Chainlink’s Next Major Move Comes After This Range, Analyst Says During the last few days, BTC was trying to hold above $100,000 in the face of this selloff, but the asset appears to have buckled during the past day as its price has breached under the mark. Historically, bull markets have sustained so long as fresh demand has kept coming in to absorb the selling from the diamond hands, so it remains to be seen whether the price plunge will be met with an injection of demand, or if this selling will lead into an extended bearish phase for Bitcoin. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $98,500, down 3% over the last 24 hours. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Tether becomes more dominance as BTC loses ground.
As Bitcoin continues to show a bearish trajectory, the cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index has fallen to its lowest extreme fear level since March. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Suggests Investors Are Extremely Fearful The “Fear & Greed Index” refers to an indicator created by Alternative that tells us about the average sentiment that’s present among traders in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency markets. Related Reading: Chainlink’s Next Major Move Comes After This Range, Analyst Says The index uses the data of the following five factors to determine the investor mentality: trading volume, volatility, market cap dominance, social sentiment, and Google Trends. It then represents the sentiment using a scale running from 0 to 100. All values above 53 correspond to a net sentiment of greed, while those below 47 imply fear in the market. The indicator being between these two cutoffs naturally suggests a neutral mentality among the investors. Besides these three main zones, there are also two “extreme” sentiments: extreme fear and extreme greed. The former takes place below 25 and the latter above 75. Currently, the Fear & Greed Index is in one of these zones. As is visible above, the Fear & Greed Index has a value of 15 at the moment, firmly inside the extreme fear territory. Sentiment among investors was already poor on Wednesday, but this latest value is even worse. The deterioration of sentiment is a result of Bitcoin retracing its recent recovery. While traders may be highly bearish toward the market right now, BTC and other assets don’t necessarily have to live up to expectations. In fact, if history is anything to go by, cryptocurrencies have often shown moves that directly go contrary to the crowd’s opinion. Many major tops and bottoms in the sector have formed alongside a sentiment of extreme greed and extreme fear, respectively. Given this, it’s possible that the latest foray into extreme fear could also lead to a bottom for Bitcoin and others. When that might happen, however, is anyone’s guess. The latest extreme fear sentiment is the strongest since early March, but the low back then didn’t coincide with BTC’s real bottom. That said, Bitcoin did find a temporary turnaround just a few days after, which lasted until the end of the month. In April, the market crashed again, and the Fear & Greed Index declined to a low of 18. This time, the extreme fear sentiment was enough to reignite real bullish momentum. Related Reading: Bitcoin “Arguably Undervalued,” Says Analytics Firm: Here’s Why It now remains to be seen whether the current low in the indicator will be enough for the market to reach a bottom, or if sentiment will worsen still. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $103,100, down 2% over the last 24 hours. Featured image from Dall-E, Alternative.me, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is no longer the speculative playground it once was. What began as a retail-driven movement powered by early adopters and crypto enthusiasts has evolved into a market increasingly shaped by institutional capital, from BTC ETFs absorbing billions in inflows to corporations and hedge funds adding BTC to their balance sheets. Why Institutional Accumulation Has Changed Bitcoin Volatility The narrative around Bitcoin has undergone a fundamental transaction. According to the Arch Network post on X, the institutional participant in Bitcoin is no longer emerging; it’s already established. Spot Bitcoin ETF now holds over 1 million BTC, which is roughly 5% of the total supply. Daily inflows through mid-2025 have averaged between $300 and $500 million, with a cumulative asset close to $60 billion. Related Reading: Bitcoin (BTC) Recovers Past $105K as Shutdown Relief and Whale Buying Fuel Bullish Reversal Furthermore, the reach of this integration is global, with more than half of the world’s top asset managers now having indirect exposure to BTC through these accessible ETF structures. However, while this level of adoption is bullish, a significant challenge is that most of this BTC remains idle in cold storage. This model secures exposure but fundamentally does not generate return. Presently, for the institutions managing trillions in assets, the model is losing relevance. A productive BTC stack that combines robust security with consistent yield generation is becoming the natural next step for capital markets. An ambassador at NEARProtocol and Somnia_Network, Trader Onur, has highlighted that Bitcoin ETF recorded $524 million daily inflows on Tuesday, marking the biggest since the crash. The derivatives market is flashing similar signals that smart money just stacked $8.5 million in BTC longs. This shows retailers are still nervous, but institutions are quietly positioning. If the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) print is favorable, it could set the tone for the year-end momentum. How Flows Can Confirm Or Contradict Market Mood The selling momentum in Bitcoin spot ETF flows has stalled for now. A full-time crypto trader and investor, Daan Crypto Trades, has pointed out that the BTC price has held the $100,000 region for now, as a lot of outflows and bad sentiment have taken place. However, the BTC price is also failing to push higher on the back of it. Related Reading: Bitcoin At A Battleground — This Price Range Will Decide the Next Cycle Phase As Daan noted, ETF flow data is a lagging indicator and useful mostly in hindsight. Nonetheless, when large outflows occur and the price refuses to drop further, it could be considered as short-term bullish absorption. Additionally, when heavy inflows fail to lift the price higher, it can signal local tops. These patterns have played out multiple times in this cycle, and they often occur at the key pivot zones where market direction shifts. Daan believes that it’s still valuable to watch how the price behaves around major ETF in- and outflow days. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Major cryptocurrencies and gold and silver have been on diverging trends despite the pause in the dollar rally.
Visible buying from spot bitcoin ETPs and corporates has not translated into decisive upside, leaving traders to ask a blunt question: who is supplying the market? For Chris Kuiper, CFA, vice president of research at Fidelity Digital Assets, the answer is clear. “ ‘Who is selling?’ is the number one question I’ve been getting regarding bitcoin’s continued price pressure against a backdrop of visible buying,” he wrote on X on November 12. “I’m not unique in suggesting it’s the long-term holders (or HODLers).” Kuiper points to a simple but powerful on-chain gauge: the percentage of outstanding bitcoin that has not moved for at least one year. Glassnode’s “Percent of Supply Last Active 1+ Years Ago” rises in bear markets as coins age in place and investors sit on unrealized losses, then typically falls sharply when bull markets let those same investors exit into strength. Related Reading: Bitcoin Death Cross Is Coming: Don’t Be Fooled By The Name “As you can see in the chart below, this line goes up during bear markets … and then usually a dramatic decline as these longer-term holders sell into the strength of a bull market,” Kuiper explained. What stands out to him today is that “with this cycle” the drawdown is “a relatively gentle slope down.” When bitcoin hit new highs earlier this year, the long-term-holder line “didn’t plunge,” he said. Instead, the market has been experiencing “a consistent slow bleed as the market has slowly moved sideways and up.” That slow bleed aligns with what Kuiper says he hears from the client side. “Bitcoin’s performance has recently lagged gold’s, even the S&P, and people are getting tired,” he wrote. Many investors, in his view, had been positioned for a textbook four-year cycle blow-off and were “waiting to sell into the historically strong seasonality of October and now November.” When October’s typical strength did not materialize and year-end approached, “long-term holders are looking to make year-end tax and positional changes, calling it a day with the gains they already have.” Related Reading: Bitcoin “Arguably Undervalued,” Says Analytics Firm: Here’s Why The Glassnode chart shows how different this looks from past cycles. In the 2017–2018 run-up and subsequent reversal, the share of coins last active more than a year ago rolled over violently as price spiked and then collapsed. In the current cycle, the curve that represents long-term-holder supply has been trending lower since 2023, but without the vertical collapse normally associated with euphoric distribution. On-chain analyst Julio Moreno of CryptoQuant added another layer by reframing the same dynamic as “1-year inactive supply drawdown” in percentage points of total supply. “Here’s another way to visualize this,” he replied to Kuiper, “by looking at the 1-year inactive supply drawdown in terms of % of total Bitcoin supply.” Moreno quantified the last three major cycles. In 2017–2018, 1-year inactive supply declined by about 20 percentage points of total supply. In the 2021 cycle, the drawdown was around 10 percentage points. In the 2024–2025 period so far, the decline is again roughly 10 percentage points. The CryptoQuant chart, which uses an inverted scale, renders that as a purple wave that rises as more long-dormant coins are spent or reallocated. This means that long-term holders have already released a volume of supply comparable to the 2021 cycle, even if it is still well below the 2017–2018 peak. What differs is the tempo. Rather than a short burst of profit-taking at the top, the market has absorbed roughly a 10-percentage-point reduction in inactive supply over a longer, choppier price path. Kuiper welcomed the alternative visualization, replying simply: “Great chart!” He also made clear what he will be monitoring from here. “I will be watching this slope along with some other metrics to gauge seller exhaustion,” he said. For now, he argues that “the positive fundamental developments and lackluster price action continue to diverge.” At press time, BTC traded at $102,609. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
On Thursday, the Bitcoin price fell toward the $98,000 mark, with November shaping up to mirror October’s performance as the market’s leading cryptocurrency continues to hit lower lows over the past month, confirming a prevalent downtrend in the market. Bitcoin Price Uncertainty Grows Post-Government Shutdown This downturn is indicative of growing market uncertainty, particularly following President Donald Trump’s signing of a bill that ended the longest government shutdown in US history on Wednesday. Related Reading: Solana at a Breaking Point: Fading Memecoin Hype and Alameda Unlocks Test the $140 Support Zone More concerning, market analyst Ali Martinez has suggested that the Bitcoin price may be forming a head-and-shoulders pattern. According to his analysis, this could set the stage for a significant drop to as low as $83,000. This would represent an additional 15% decline if the pattern holds true. Adding to the worries for bullish investors, Bitcoin has recently fallen below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), an historical key technical support for the cryptocurrency’s price in bullish cycles. The expert now indicates that a break below this key level during bear markets often leads to significant declines, potentially leading the Bitcoin price under its realized price, currently pegged at $56,200. This would imply that BTC could see a further 42% drop from current trading prices. Crypto Winter Looms Despite the expectation of bullish catalysts such as increased liquidity and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, along with positive macroeconomic data, the outlook for the Bitcoin price suggests the possibility of a new bear market. Related Reading: $1.33B Ethereum Whale Just Moved Another $120M USDT to Binance – Details Ali Martinez’s analysis implies that bearish sentiment is gaining momentum, raising concerns about an impending “crypto winter” unfolding for investors once again this year. As of this writing, BTC is trading at $98,150, marking a loss of nearly 13% over the past thirty days and erasing most of the gains it had accumulated throughout the year. In this time frame, it has only posted a 9% gain. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
A fresh wave of pessimism is sweeping across crypto markets, but the mood shift may be doing more good than harm.
Bitcoin continues to consolidate below the $105,000 mark, maintaining stability above the key $100,000 support level despite ongoing market uncertainty. Bulls appear to be losing momentum, yet sellers are showing signs of exhaustion as the price resists further decline. According to top analyst Darkfost, the market has entered a clear deleveraging phase following the major liquidation event on October 10 — a structural reset that is removing excessive leverage from the system. Related Reading: Ethereum Whale Adds $105M To His ETH Position – $1.33B Bought Since Nov 4 Data shows that open interest — the total value of active futures contracts — has fallen by 21% over the past 90 days, marking one of the steepest declines of the cycle. This drop reflects traders reducing risk exposure and liquidations steadily clearing overleveraged positions. Darkfost notes that leverage usage is gradually cooling down, with the current drawdown echoing previous cleansing phases seen in September 2024 and April 2025. Historically, such periods of forced unwinding have preceded new market strength as liquidity stabilizes and speculative excess fades. Deleveraging Signals a Potential Turning Point for Bitcoin Darkfost explains that the current deleveraging phase bears striking similarities to previous corrective periods that ultimately paved the way for major recoveries. During the September 2024 and April 2025 corrections, open interest fell by approximately 24% and 29%, respectively — deep enough to flush out excessive speculation and restore balance across the market. With the current 21% decline in open interest over the last three months, Bitcoin is now approaching those same historical levels of leverage reduction. According to Darkfost, these phases are not necessarily bearish; instead, they serve as healthy resets during bullish market cycles. By forcing overleveraged traders to exit and cooling down speculative behavior, the market is able to rebuild on a stronger, more stable foundation. In past cycles, such unwinding events were often followed by trend reversals once selling pressure eased and new demand emerged. The reduction in leverage also tends to attract long-term investors and institutions seeking lower-risk entry points. If Bitcoin continues to hold its ground above $100K through this period of structural cleanup, it could signal that the worst of the correction is over, setting the stage for a potential new impulse phase once confidence returns. Related Reading: Bitcoin Inflows To Binance Surge: Daily Average Hits 7,500 BTC BTC Tests Support As Consolidation Continues Above $100K The weekly Bitcoin chart shows that BTC remains in a tight consolidation range between $100,000 and $105,000, testing key structural support. The price has repeatedly defended the 100-day moving average (blue line), indicating that despite sustained selling pressure, buyers continue to step in around this psychological zone. The overall trend remains bullish on higher timeframes, with the 200-week moving average (red line) trending upward and well below current price action — a signal that Bitcoin’s long-term market structure remains intact. However, momentum indicators reflect weakness, as BTC struggles to reclaim the $110,000 resistance level that capped previous rebound attempts. Related Reading: Bitcoin STH-MVRV Rebounds From Local Low – Potential Recovery Toward $115K–$120K Trading volume has decreased since the October liquidation event, aligning with Darkfost’s observation that the market is undergoing a deleveraging phase. This lower volume environment suggests investor hesitation but also indicates that forced selling may be nearing exhaustion. A decisive weekly close above $106,000 could confirm renewed bullish momentum, while a breakdown below $100,000 might trigger deeper corrections toward $92,000 — the next major support zone. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is down by 2.1% in the past 24 hours, and its latest decline has come at a moment when many traders expected the opposite. The US government shutdown is already in the process of winding down after weeks of uncertainty, yet the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum have continued to drift lower and are under pressure. The cryptocurrency market’s inability to rebound notably has led to active debate among traders on X. One of the most vocal views came from a popular trader known as The White Whale, whose remarks express a growing sense of frustration across the crypto community. The Shutdown Isn’t Really Over The White Whale argument is that the crypto market’s price action is yet to rebound because the government shutdown is not truly over. The analyst insinuates that the apparent resolution to the shutdown is far less reassuring than it looks. Related Reading: Adam Beck’s Bitcoin Realization: What Kind Of Money Is BTC? In his view, the government only approved short-term funding so that federal workers get paid through the holiday period, but this leaves the underlying issue unresolved. The temporary nature of the fix means the same uncertainty could come back in just a few weeks, which he believes is preventing markets from reacting positively. The discussion attracted instant responses, including a contrasting view from another commentator, Nara Sumas. Sumas dismissed the idea that the shutdown is the main factor behind price action, noting that markets barely reacted when the shutdown began. The point is that the macro crypto environment is already heavy with weak sentiment, and there is bad news about the markets every day. Therefore, the crypto market’s decline has more to do with those structural conditions than with government drama. Furthermore, the brief uptick earlier in the week was due to exuberance and not anything based on fundamentals. Despite the pushback, The White Whale doubled down on his stance. He maintained that markets do react to shutdowns, but not immediately. Therefore, the delayed downturn is a reaction after it became apparent to investors that the situation wasn’t going to be resolved quickly. What’s Next For The Crypto Market? The path ahead for the crypto market is tied to whether confidence can return after weeks of choppy price action and sentiment. The exchange between traders on X, like the one highlighted above, shows that many are weighing the impact of the temporary government funding deal against the deeper macro issues that have shaped this downturn. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Market Peak Indicators Says Hold Despite Crash Below $100,000, What’s Happening? Even though the shutdown is winding down, the uncertainty around what happens next is notable, especially for investors who rely on clear policy direction before taking on additional risk. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $102,900, down by 2% in the past 24 hours. At the same time, XRP is witnessing a resurgence in interest, as investors are now awaiting the possible launch of a US-based Spot XRP ETF this week. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin is days from printing another daily “death cross” — the 50-day simple moving average slipping beneath the 200-day — but analyst Kevin (Kev Capital TA) argues the label misleads more than it informs. In a November 12 video breakdown titled “BTC Daily Death Cross — How It Works And What To Expect,” he contends that every daily death cross of this cycle has coincided with the late stages — and, in practice, the lows — of multi-month corrective phases. “Don’t fall for the posts that say, ‘Oh my god, death cross on the daily, we’re going down 80%.’ That’s not how these have played out,” he says. “Remember, moving averages are lagging indicators […] the move that caused the cross has already occurred.” What The Bitcoin Death Cross Means The framing is data-driven and distinctly cyclical. This market, he stresses, has not behaved like 2017 or 2020–2021, when vertical advances never allowed the 50-day to undercut the 200-day during the advance. Instead, 2023–2025 has featured long pauses of 114 to 174 days, with price grinding sideways-to-down before pushing higher again. Each of those pauses bent the 50-day lower long enough for a cross, and each cross clustered near the end of the corrective window. “This cycle we have seen these consistent, right, 150, 160-plus days of corrective periods […] and with that causes the moving averages to act differently,” he says. Related Reading: Bitcoin “Arguably Undervalued,” Says Analytics Firm: Here’s Why Kevin revisits the three prior crosses. In 2023, after the brutal post-$30k range that followed the breakout from bear-market lows, the death cross “marked the lows […] basically the end of the correction.” Bitcoin chopped for roughly a month, then embarked on what he calls “the biggest rally of the cycle,” carrying from roughly $25k to $73k as altcoins “went berserk […] 5x to 8x, some 10x.” The 2024 instance came after the mid-cycle top in March and a year-long grind into the US election window. A single “16% candle on one day” stabbed into the lows a few days before the cross; the cross itself arrived after the damage, followed by two months of chop and then a Q4 recovery bid amid “the election exuberance” and a “dovish” turn in Fed rhetoric, pushing Bitcoin “to about $110k.” The third case, in Q1 2025, was even cleaner. As markets corrected from late-December/early-January peaks amid tariff fears and froth, the 50-under-200 print “literally marked the bottom of the correction,” with an immediate recovery. He characterizes 2025 as a year of reclamation rather than expansion: “We barely made a new all-time high […] that’s just kind of been 2025 in a nutshell,” which explains “why sentiment is just so bad.” The core mechanism is lag. Because the 50- and 200-day SMAs average past prices, their cross reflects a move already completed. “Almost 100% of the time when a death cross occurs, you do get a retrace back up into your moving averages,” Kevin says, adding that the key question is whether Bitcoin’s bounce merely tags that cluster or reclaims it with authority. He highlights a specific line in the sand: “Can it reclaim the $106.8k level on weekly closes? If Bitcoin can reclaim its daily moving averages […] and its $106.8k level on weekly closes, Bitcoin should have the opportunity at making a new all-time high.” Failure would argue that “the four-year cycle just played out normally and Bitcoin just had a really weak cycle,” with altcoins never delivering a classic “alt season.” What Comes Next For BTC? The analyst leans into the present confusion. He notes a schism among four-year-cycle adherents over whether the clock should be measured from the bottom or from the halving, and he points to evidence of distribution from long-term holders: “Whales that have been holding since the Satoshi era [are] offloading their Bitcoin.” Even so, he frames spot resilience as non-trivial: “Pretty surprised that Bitcoin is still hanging around at $105k given the fact that it’s had that much sell pressure […] back in earlier days when Bitcoin was topping out and whales were offloading, Bitcoin was going through 50% corrections.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Path To $1 Million Clears With OG Sellers Fading: Dave Weisberger The broader macro backdrop is part of the story. This has been “a restrictive monetary policy environment where liquidity was being sucked out of the system and rates were just too restrictive,” with AI-led equities absorbing risk flows. “The NASDAQ and S&P have been making new all-time highs for multiple years,” he says, while the Russell “barely broke out to a new all-time high a few weeks ago.” In other words, crypto’s underperformance is not isolated. What comes next, in Kevin’s view, is a clean market test. The daily death cross is “a day or two away,” likely into the weekend, and traders should expect a response toward the moving averages. The decisive stage is whether price can then clear the stack — “our 200 SMA, our 200 EMA, our 100 EMA, and even this 50 SMA” — and convert the $106.8k weekly close level back into support. “If we can do that […] Bitcoin absolutely has an opportunity to go make a new high,” he says. “If we can’t […] then obviously things are not going to be looking too good.” He cautions that incoming macro prints and central-bank rhetoric could “throw a wrench into things,” but he returns to the same empirical anchor: “This has happened three times this cycle already. Here’s exactly how the data works. Here’s what’s happened.” The punchline is less apocalyptic than the name implies. Four death crosses in one cycle is unprecedented for Bitcoin during an advance, and the last three coincided with late-stage corrective lows rather than trend collapses. As Kevin puts it: “The death cross everyone fears has marked every bottom so far.” The signal that “refuses to kill Bitcoin” is set to flash again; the pathology of the move afterward — rejection at the averages versus a decisive reclaim and weekly hold above $106.8k — will tell the real story. At press time, BTC traded at $103,540. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain analytics firm Santiment has explained how Bitcoin could currently be undervalued based on its 4-year correlation to Gold and S&P 500. Bitcoin Has Underperformed Against Gold & S&P 500 Recently In a new post on X, Santiment has discussed about BTC’s recent trend relative to Gold and S&P 500. Historically, the cryptocurrency has shown some degree of correlation to these assets, but the pattern has shifted lately. Related Reading: Bitcoin Spot Demand Growing For First Time Since Early October: CryptoQuant Head Any two given assets are said to be “correlated” when one of them reacts to movements in the other by showing volatility of its own. As the chart shared by Santiment shows, Bitcoin has diverged from the traditional assets during the last few months. From the graph, it’s visible that Bitcoin has overall gone down 15% since August 11th. In the same window, the S&P 500 and Gold are up 7% and 21%, respectively. Gold has been the clear winner, but the S&P 500 has also at least managed a profit. The same is clearly not true for the number one cryptocurrency, which has gone the opposite way. The different trajectories of the assets would imply that they are no longer correlated or only have a negative correlation. Based on the fact that Bitcoin has shown tight correlation to the two over the last four years, however, the analytics firm has said, “BTC is arguably being undervalued.” It now remains to be seen whether the cryptocurrency’s price will eventually close the gap to the others. In some other news, BTC is trading between two key on-chain price levels right now, as on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has pointed out in an X post. The levels in question are part of the Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model, which maps out various Bitcoin price levels according to the percentage of the supply that will be in profit if BTC were to trade at them. Bitcoin broke above the 0.95 quantile during its rally to the new all-time high (ATH), meaning more than 95% of the supply entered into a state of unrealized gain. With the drawdown that the coin has faced since then, its price has slipped not just under this level, but also the 0.85 quantile, corresponding to supply profitability of 85%. Related Reading: XRP To $10? Analyst Reveals What Could Be The Spark This level, currently situated at $108,500, could act as a barrier preventing upward breaks. In the down direction, the 0.75 quantile is present as a cushion around $100,600. “These levels have historically acted as support and resistance, with a break of either likely to define the next directional trend,” explained Glassnode. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $105,000, up 2.5% over the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, Santiment.net, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is entering a consolidation phase, holding steady above the $100,000 mark but struggling to break past $105,000. The market appears to be stabilizing after weeks of volatility, yet on-chain data signals that profit-taking remains active. According to top analyst Darkfost, since the exceptional liquidation event in early October, many investors have started to secure profits and scale back their exposure as the current cycle nears its end. Related Reading: Bitcoin STH-MVRV Rebounds From Local Low – Potential Recovery Toward $115K–$120K Data from CryptoQuant reveals a notable uptick in Bitcoin inflows to Binance. The 30-day moving average of daily inflows has climbed sharply throughout October, showing that, on average, roughly 7,500 BTC are being transferred to Binance every day. This is the highest inflow rate since the March correction, indicating renewed selling pressure and cautious positioning among traders. While such inflows often reflect profit realization and short-term selling, Bitcoin’s ability to consolidate near the $100K level suggests resilient underlying demand. Buyers continue to absorb the supply entering the market, preventing a deeper breakdown — at least for now. As the cycle matures, this phase may prove critical in determining whether Bitcoin stabilizes for another leg up or faces a more prolonged correction. Short-Term Holders Add To Selling Pressure As Bitcoin Consolidates Darkfost explains that the recent surge in Bitcoin inflows to Binance and other exchanges reflects growing selling pressure across the market. Despite this, Bitcoin’s price continues to consolidate relatively cleanly around the symbolic $100,000 level — a sign that existing demand remains strong enough to absorb the increased supply. This balance between distribution and accumulation indicates that the market is undergoing a structural reset rather than a full-blown capitulation. Adding to this dynamic, short-term holders (STHs) have become a major contributor to the ongoing selling pressure. These participants are typically the most reactive segment of the market, responding quickly to volatility and sentiment shifts. With a realized price near $112,000, many STHs have been underwater for about a month, prompting them to send significant amounts of BTC to exchanges at a loss. Historically, this type of behavior has coincided with late-stage corrections — what analysts often call a “cleansing phase.” During such phases, speculative capital exits the market while long-term investors quietly absorb the supply, setting the foundation for renewed stability and potential future growth. If demand continues to offset this wave of short-term selling, Bitcoin could soon form a stronger base above $100,000 — paving the way for a gradual recovery as selling pressure fades and confidence returns. Related Reading: Uniswap Founder Submits Governance Proposal To Burn UNI — Token Jumps 50% Weekly Chart: Holding the Line Above Key Support Bitcoin continues to consolidate within a tight range between $102,000 and $107,000, showing resilience around the critical $100K psychological level. On the weekly chart, BTC remains supported by the 50-week moving average (blue line), which is acting as a strong dynamic floor for price. Despite multiple retests over recent weeks, bulls have managed to defend this level, signaling that underlying demand remains intact even as profit-taking intensifies. The broader structure still points to a healthy long-term uptrend. The 100-week (green) and 200-week (red) moving averages continue sloping upward, confirming that Bitcoin’s macro bias remains bullish. However, the lack of strong volume during recent rebounds suggests that market participants are cautious, awaiting confirmation of renewed momentum before adding to positions. Related Reading: Anti-CZ Whale Flips Bullish On Ethereum: Now Up $15M On A $119.6M Long Position If Bitcoin manages to reclaim the $110K region, it could invalidate short-term bearish sentiment and trigger a recovery toward the $117K–$120K resistance zone. Conversely, a weekly close below $100K would mark a significant technical breakdown, potentially opening the door to a deeper retrace toward $92K–$95K. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
According to an analyst, Bitcoin sits in a liquidity set-up that has shown up before big rallies. Prices are not shooting higher yet. At press time Bitcoin trades around $104,500, down 0.5% over the past day. Related Reading: XRP’s Next ‘Face-Melting’ Rally Could Hit Within 6 Weeks—Analyst Traders watched a decline of about 1.8% earlier that pushed the price near $103,400 and it briefly touched $102,850 during the move. Stablecoin Signal Points Toward Accumulation CryptoQuant analyst Moreno points to the Stablecoin Supply Ratio, or SSR, as the first clear indicator. The SSR compares Bitcoin’s market cap to the total market cap of stablecoins. It has dropped back into the 13 range. Based on historical readings, that 13 area has lined up with market lows in mid-2021 and at several moments across 2024. Reports show that when SSR fell to similar levels, liquidity quietly built up and buying followed after a period of low volatility. Liquidity Pattern Has Appeared Before Every Bitcoin Surge — And It’s Back “We’re witnessing a liquidity configuration that has only appeared a handful of times since 2020, and each instance marked a pivotal moment for Bitcoin’s trajectory.” – By @MorenoDV_ pic.twitter.com/vWKcCkyn55 — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 11, 2025 Binance Reserve Trends Add A Second Layer The second metric Moreno highlights comes from Binance. On that exchange, stablecoin balances are rising while Bitcoin reserves are shrinking. In plain terms: more cash-like tokens sit on the exchange and fewer coins are being held there. That pattern has appeared only a handful of times since 2020, according to the data he referenced. Each time, the movement suggested capital waiting on the sidelines and holders moving coins off exchanges into longer-term storage. Market Calm Can Hide Big Moves The current trading backdrop is cautious. Many investors expected a lift after news that the US Congress approved short-term federal funding through January 30, yet crypto did not rally with other risk assets. Some capital rotated back to stocks. At the same time, large holders took profits after recent highs, and momentum cooled. That mix shows how macro events can shift flows without immediately turning into crypto buying. Risk Still Exists — Structure Could Break Moreno warns this liquidity zone acts like a final structural support. If the metrics break down decisively, it could signal a deeper reset before any sustained recovery. In that scenario, buying would likely be delayed and volatility would rise. This is not a guaranteed outcome, but it is a clear risk that traders watch closely. Outlook: Limited Downside, Growing Upside Based on reports and on-chain signals, Moreno believes the risk-to-reward favors buyers at these levels. He points to the built-up stablecoin supply and falling exchange BTC reserves as reasons for that view. Related Reading: Could Shiba Inu Triple? Analyst Sees 200% Move Coming Historical patterns suggest the last three months of the year often bring gains for Bitcoin, but past behavior does not promise future returns. For now, the indicators show capital parked in stablecoins and fewer coins available on major exchanges. That creates a setup where fresh buying could push the market higher quickly if sentiment turns. Yet the opposite is possible: a break below these levels would reshape the cycle and force many participants to rethink positions. Markets will decide which path comes next. Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
Ripple’s Chief Technology Officer (CTO), David Schwartz, has provided a clear explanation for why the Bitcoin price remains so high, currently the most expensive cryptocurrency on the market. Notably, Schwartz’s statement had sparked new discussions across the crypto community. His remarks focused on how people view and use BTC in transactions, revealing a simple economic truth that helps explain the market’s continued confidence in the world’s leading cryptocurrency. Ripple CTO Explains Logic Behind Elevated Bitcoin Price On Tuesday, Schwartz shared his thoughts on X, offering a simple but insightful explanation for Bitcoin’s current price strength. Responding to a community member’s question about why anyone would spend BTC given its potential for future appreciation, Schwartz explained that the reason lies in the asset’s perceived value and future expectations. Related Reading: Why Did The Bitcoin And Ethereum Prices Crash On October 10 And Will It Happen Again? According to the Ripple CTO, when individuals use Bitcoin to pay for goods or services, they are essentially realizing the full expected value of its future growth today. Rather than holding Bitcoin as a long-term investment and waiting for price gains, these users convert its potential into immediate utility. This behavior, he noted, reflects a broader belief in BTC’s enduring value and is one of the primary reasons why the cryptocurrency’s price remains so high. Notably, Schwartz’s remarks followed a conversation that began when Jack Dorsey, co-founder of Square, a business technology company, announced that Bitcoin payments had gone live across the firm’s platforms. Dorsey revealed that Square customers can now pay for services and products using Bitcoin directly, and sellers can choose between multiple settlement options, including BTC-to-BTC, BTC-to-fiat, and fiat-to-BTC transactions. Funds received through Bitcoin payments will be automatically stored in a user’s Square wallet, with self-custody transfer limits of up to $15,000 per day or $50,000 per week. Interestingly, the timing of Schwartz’s explanation comes a month after BTC reached a new all-time high of over $126,000. Compared to other digital assets, Bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency in the six-figure territory, even surpassing traditional investments like gold and major stock indices. While some analysts argue that Bitcoin is overvalued, many investors remain convinced that it could still climb significantly higher in the long term. Bitcoin Price Expected To Rise Even Higher The Bitcoin price is currently sitting above the $100,000 level, but analysts believe it could rise even further. The leading cryptocurrency is hovering near $103,300, experiencing some volatility, which has triggered a nearly 2% dip in the past 24 hours amid whale capitulations. Crypto analyst Joe Francesco noted that Bitcoin had initially surged to $107,000 following a wave of optimism sparked by US President Donald Trump’s proposed $2,000 stimulus plan. Related Reading: New XRP ETF Just Dropped, But Will Anything Be Different This Time? However, the rally proved short-lived, as BTC fell a few days later. Despite the pullback, Francesco has described the cryptocurrency’s chart setup as positive, predicting that Bitcoin could soon break through $107,000, with the potential to reach $115,000 and even $120,000 if upward momentum continues. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
The cryptocurrency market has weathered a challenging period, testing the resolve of the most seasoned investors. After a prolonged period of downward pressure, the Bitcoin Supply-Loss Chart is flashing a possible bottom signal. A Deeper Look At Bitcoin Supply In Loss Chart Bitcoin on-chain data on the loss chart is currently flashing a possible bottom. In an X post, CryptosRus has revealed that the supply in the Loss metric chart tracks the total amount of BTC held by addresses where the current market price is below the average cost basis of those holdings. Essentially, the portion of BTC owners is currently underwater on their investment. Related Reading: Bitcoin To Bottom Out In 300 Days: Top Expert Forecasts $38,000 To $50,000 Price Point As a sentiment indicator, the high levels of supply in the Loss chart typically signal fear, capitulation selling, and potential market bottoms. In addition, the low levels indicate broad profitability and market greed. On April 7, 2025, when BTC traded around $74,508, the supply in loss was 5.159 million BTC. By November 5, 2025, even with BTC rising to $98,966, the supply in loss had also increased to 5.639 million BTC. During mid-2024, a similar situation reportedly occurred, marking the bottom at that time. The expert also outlined particular areas on the chart marked as 3, 4, and 5, which show uncanny similarities. Furthermore, in October 2025, recent lows showed a sharp spike in losses amid volatility, with approximately 30% of supply going underwater. On the chart, the yellow boxes highlight a rapid build-up, which has been a potent precursor to the market bottom. Currently, the supply in the loss has climbed to 28% and 33%, which is equivalent to 5.5 million BTC to 6.5 million BTC, matching the October endpoint on the chart and echoing the correction patterns seen in 2024. CryptosRus concluded that this may bring short-term bearish pressure, but it could flush out the final weak holders, opening the way for a bounce in Q4 and Q1 2026. The Accumulation Phase Before The Breakout Bitcoin has experienced three major corrections in this cycle, and each one has eventually led to a new all-time high after months of conviction. According to an analyst known as 0xBossman, this correction is no different, and each of these corrections has been brutal in its own way. BTC’s market flushed out the leveraged traders, resulting in them losing it all. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Market Peak Indicators Says Hold Despite Crash Below $100,000, What’s Happening? Meanwhile, the boredom that comes as a result of these corrections is what has led to the bearish sentiment. The market feels indecisive, and altcoins have bled. Thus, 0xBossman advised that traders should step back and realize that this consolidation will end with a massive green candle. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
A new technical report from China’s National Computer Virus Emergency Response Center (CVERC) has revealed shocking details about one of the largest Bitcoin hacks in history, which points to a hidden power struggle between China and the United States over $15 billion in Bitcoin. The stolen Bitcoin stayed untouched for four years, which blockchain experts say is unusual for typical hackers. Now, both China and the US are pointing fingers, with some analysts suggesting the US government may have secretly seized the coins. China’s 2020 Bitcoin Hack Raises Questions About US Government Involvement LuBian was a fast-growing Bitcoin mining pool launched in 2020, mainly operating in China and Iran. In late December 2020, hackers attacked its system and stole over 90% of its Bitcoin, matching almost exactly the 127,271 BTC later claimed by the US Department of Justice (DOJ). Related Reading: XRP Set To Lead The Next Bull Rally: Crypto Research Firm Blows The Lid Open Soon after the theft, Chen Zhi, chairman of Prince Group in Cambodia, and his team sent over 1,500 messages on the Bitcoin blockchain, embedded in small transactions, begging the hackers to return the funds and offering a ransom. The hackers never responded. The stolen Bitcoin remained in a single wallet from 2020 until mid-2024, an unusual move, as most hackers move stolen coins quickly. Blockchain experts say this behavior suggests a carefully planned state-level operation. Who Really Controls The 127,000 BTC? In June 2024, the stolen Bitcoin finally moved again to new addresses, which well-known blockchain-tracking companies, including Elliptic and Arkham Intelligence, have identified as being under US government control. Then, on October 14, 2025, the US DOJ announced that it had seized 127,000 Bitcoins from Chen Zhi and charged him with financial crimes. Chinese experts, however, claim these are the same coins stolen from LuBian in 2020, suggesting that the US government may have controlled them years earlier. According to the CVERC report, the unusual behavior of the stolen coins remaining dormant for four years suggests that possible state-level operations are now intersecting with the DOJ’s legal case against Chen. Related Reading: Here Are The Bitcoin Whales That Have Been Dumping BTC And Crashing The Price Blockchain analysis reveals that all 25 Bitcoin wallet addresses mentioned in the US DOJ indictment correspond to the addresses involved in the 2020 hack. Only a tiny fraction of the stolen Bitcoin was ever moved before 2024, highlighting the unusual, state-level nature of the operation. The report further suggests that the US may have acquired the stolen funds long before announcing the seizure, possibly even participating in or benefiting from the original hack. Chinese analysts argue that this appears to be a “state-level double-cross”, where one government used hacking tools to seize digital assets under the cover of law enforcement. Meanwhile, the US DOJ has not explained how it obtained Chen Zhi’s private wallet keys or why those wallets exactly match the stolen LuBian funds, leaving the question of accurate control unresolved. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Former chairman and co-founder of CoinRoutes and now president of BetterTrade.digital Dave Weisberger used a November 11 video to restate Bitcoin’s long-term bull case, arguing that the market’s “morose” sentiment and technician-driven calls for downside are missing the structural shift underway on both fundamentals and market microstructure. He framed his analysis in two parts—why Bitcoin is being bought and what the current market structure implies—contending that the thesis toward seven-figure pricing remains intact even without an obvious near-term catalyst. The Path To $1 Million Per Bitcoin On fundamentals, he drew a direct comparison with gold’s monetary role and size. Citing an above-ground market value of “around $28 trillion” and “about $7 trillion in known reserves below ground,” Weisberger argued that roughly 80% of gold’s value is monetary, not industrial, using the platinum–gold price relationship as a proxy. “Gold today trades at about two and a half times platinum, which for most of my life was about double the price of gold,” he said, adding that platinum is “30 times rarer and more valued by women in jewelry.” From that relative-value lens, he estimated gold’s “monetary value fully diluted around $28 trillion,” contrasting it with Bitcoin’s “fully diluted market cap […] just over $2 trillion at today’s prices.” Related Reading: China’s Cybersecurity Agency Alleges US Government Stole $13 Billion In Bitcoin If Bitcoin equals or surpasses gold on monetary characteristics, he argued, the gap implies transformative upside: “It could rise to equal gold. Except it’s better than gold on monetary characteristics.” He emphasized Bitcoin’s native digital finality, resistance to counterfeiting, divisibility, transparency, and programmatic supply schedule—benefits that also avoid gold’s custody, assay, and transport frictions. Even in a scenario where fiat “holds its value,” he suggested, network adoption alone could warrant a multi-fold repricing; in a debasement regime, he said, the asymmetry is stronger: “As the Bitcoin network grows and it gains acceptance it’ll likely rise by 10 times this or more.” Via X, he added “the Fundamental case” is $1 million in today’s dollars. Weisberger revisited the “fastest horse” framing popularized in the early COVID-era liquidity surge. He pointed to Paul Tudor Jones’s thesis in “May of 2020,” acknowledging he misspoke initially, and reminded viewers that the price then “did nothing” for months before a stepwise acceleration from October through the subsequent euphoric leg higher. The lesson, in his view, is that market tone can lag fundamentals until positioning resets and liquidity leadership rotates back to Bitcoin. “History doesn’t always repeat, but it can sometimes rhyme,” he said. On market structure, Weisberger took aim at the four-year halving cycle as a predictive template. Historically, he said, cyclical behavior followed a pattern—halving, a six-month period of miner-incentive doubt, then a relief-to-euphoria rally that later bled into altcoin rotation before a broad drawdown. He argued that dynamic is losing relevance because supply changes are now “irrelevant relative to the amount of demand that’s going on,” while network security trends tell a different story: “If you look at the Bitcoin hash rate chart, it’s increasing at a geometric pace.” The moving parts he sees actually driving prices are the interaction of legacy supply and institutional demand. “It’s basically the OG sellers who are selling over 100,000 [BTC] and the new buyers, whether they’re in ETFs or in MicroStrategy, etc.” Those early holders, in his telling, are rationally diversifying life-changing gains rather than capitulating, which implies a finite overhang: “Entrepreneurs don’t generally sell everything […] they sell some at a level to get where they need to be and then […] sell at later prices.” He underscored that spot ETF investors appear patient despite recent volatility. “Even after all of the carnage of the last few weeks since October 10th, less than 2% of the Bitcoin ETFs have outflown,” he said, characterizing that cohort as long-horizon allocators “looking for a 10x gain,” not trading around single-digit drawdowns. He contrasted October’s deleveraging—“$20 billion was liquidated […] but only five billion of the liquidation was in Bitcoin”—with the 2022 insolvency cascade: “This cycle doesn’t have a Celsius […] doesn’t have an FTX. The impact of the liquidations is not going to be to cause an insolvency event which causes forced sales.” Without a credit-driven unwind, he argued, technical analogies to 2022 are misplaced: “If there’s no forced sales, why do we expect a sale on the magnitude that happened in 2022 […]? They’re trying to impute something without taking into account the actual circumstance.” Related Reading: Most Reliable Bitcoin Boom Indicator Just Went Off-Script: Expert Price leadership, in his view, will return through “liquidity and slow grinding growth” while “hot money” recovers from leverage-driven losses. He expects the OG selling to “abate,” as partial profit-taking runs its course, setting the stage for the next euphoric leg once a catalyst emerges. Weisberger did not pretend to know which spark will ignite it—“I’m not a Nostradamus”—but listed plausible vectors that are consistent with prior cycles: “The catalyst could be sovereign accumulation. The catalyst could be Bitcoin being used as collateral […] It doesn’t really matter what the catalyst is.” The key risk for would-be sellers, he suggested, is time out of the market during the inflection: “Unless you are very nimble, very quick, have no tax consequences, and aren’t out of the market or on vacation in the two or three days when euphoria first starts, then I would be very, very reticent to sell here.” My 2 part Bitcoin analysis: 1) The Fundamental case for $1 Million Bitcoin in TODAYS dollar 2) Why the current gloom is unwarranted & now is a great time to accumulate Bitcoin for the long haul The Bull Case For Bitcoin 11 11 https://t.co/0ACKrn3bgQ via @YouTube — Dave W (@daveweisberger1) November 12, 2025 He closed with a caution that acknowledges the market’s capacity to frustrate both bulls and bears. “Maybe euphoria will happen after it continues to drag on and fall for another few months, but at some point it will happen,” he said. He disclosed his positioning—“I have not sold any sats, nor do I intend to”—and reiterated the discipline required in a choppy tape: “Stay safe out there. This market does look interesting and is going to likely stay that way for a while.” At press time, BTC traded at $104,954. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
The Bitcoin dominance has remained quite high over the last year, holding firmly above 50% and preventing altcoins from making any meaningful recovery. Even now, the dominance has climbed close to 60%, showing that Bitcoin is still determining the direction of the entire market. However, there has been a development that could change the trajectory of the Bitcoin dominance and put altcoins in the spotlight once again, highlighted by crypto analyst Unichartz. Bitcoin Dominance Breaks Below 50 EMA Since 2023, the Bitcoin dominance has remained firmly above the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), showing immense strength around this level. Even through market crashes, the digital asset has maintained its dominance, and with each passing year, the trendline has continued to rise. As long as the Bitcoin dominance stayed above the 50 EMA, it showed it would continue to dominate, but this is changing now. Related Reading: Shiba Inu Derivatives Market Is Taking Off Again, But What Does This Mean For Price? According to the post by Unichartz, it shows that the Bitcoin dominance has now crashed below the 50-Day EMA for the first time in almost one year. This comes as the dominance lost its footing above 60% and has failed to reclaim its position above it. Naturally, there has been an attempt to reclaim the 50-Day EMA once again. However, this attempt failed after the brief surge above 63% in early October was thwarted by the market-wide crash on October 10. Since then, the dominance has remained below the 50 EMA and has now spent a full consecutive month below this critical level. What This Means For The Crypto Market Historically, the altcoin season has only begun when the Bitcoin dominance has seen a decline. This trend has held strong through the years, and even through the current cycle, has prevented the rise of another altcoin season. Related Reading: Dogecoin Does Not Have Potential For A Strong Move Upward, Analyst Says However, with the crash below the 50 EMA, the analyst predicts that the Bitcoin dominance is about to see a massive crash. It shows that the dominance will fall below 40% if it fails to reclaim the 50 EMA soon. Such a crash would give room for altcoins to actually run as the focus moves away from Bitcoin. With the Altcoin Season Index sitting at a low 31 at the time of this writing, it shows that a crash in the Bitcoin dominance is sorely needed for altcoins to rise again. However, the analyst explains that if the dominance does reclaim the 50 EMA, then Bitcoin’s lead may be extended for longer before attention rotates back to altcoin. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
According to a recent report by Bloomberg, the cybersecurity arm of China has openly accused the US government of orchestrating the theft of approximately $13 billion in Bitcoin (BTC), adding tension to the ongoing cyber relations between the two nations. China Alleges State-Level Operation The incident in question revolves around the theft of 127,272 BTC from the LuBian Bitcoin mining pool in December 2020, constituting one of the most substantial crypto heists in history. Related Reading: Bitcoin To Bottom Out In 300 Days: Top Expert Forecasts $38,000 To $50,000 Price Point The Chinese National Computer Virus Emergency Response Center suggests that this large-scale hack was likely a planned “state-level hacker operation” orchestrated by the US. The agency points to the discreet and delayed movement of the stolen Bitcoin as indicative of governmental involvement rather than typical criminal behavior. The report further links the Bitcoin from LuBian, a former Bitcoin mining firm, to tokens seized by the US government, which authorities claim are linked to Chen Zhi, the chairman of the Cambodian conglomerate Prince Group. Chen Zhi had been accused by the US of participating in a wire-fraud conspiracy and running a money-laundering scheme in October. Notably, details on when and how the Bitcoin was confiscated by the US remain undisclosed. The narrative put forth in the report suggests that the US government might have employed hacking tactics as early as 2020 to appropriate the 127,000 Bitcoin associated with Chen Zhi, characterizing the operation as an example of a “black eats black” maneuver orchestrated by a state-level hacking entity. Bitcoin Forfeiture Fallout Federal prosecutors involved in the Chen case have refrained from disclosing the methods used to gain control of the Bitcoin, following the Department of Justice’s civil forfeiture complaint seizing the 127,271 BTC, which stands as the most substantial forfeiture action undertaken by the US government. Recent statements from the Chinese government have highlighted a growing trend of accusing the American government of engaging in hacking activities. Related Reading: Crypto Treasuries Shift Focus From Bitcoin And Ether To These Lesser-Known Altcoins Earlier this year, China asserted that the US exploited vulnerabilities in Microsoft Exchange servers to target Chinese companies. Just last month, China alleged that it possessed undeniable evidence of a US cyber attack on the National Time Service Center. In response to the allegations, a lawyer representing Chen Zhi has filed a request for additional time in a US court to allow for tracing of the stolen BTC from LuBian. The attorney, Matthew L. Schwartz has criticized the government’s claims against Chen as being “seriously misguided.” Schwartz, who serves as counsel to Mr. Chen and the Prince Group, stated that they are collaborating with cryptocurrency experts to trace the Bitcoin seized over a year ago and stolen back in 2020. T At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $102,550, recording losses of 3% in the 24-hour time frame. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is currently locked in a decisive struggle at a make-or-break resistance zone. After a strong attempt to push higher, BTC was rejected and has retreated to a pivotal support area. The next few sessions are crucial: bulls must quickly reclaim the critical overhead resistance, or risk triggering a wider market retreat back toward lower support levels. Battle At Resistance: Can Bitcoin Reclaim $107,000–$108,000? In a recent update, Crypto Candy noted that Bitcoin’s price action continues to unfold largely as anticipated, maintaining strength and structure across key levels. After enduring a volatile period, BTC held firmly within the $99,000–$101,000 support zone. This strong defense from buyers set the stage for a rebound toward the upper resistance area around $107,000–$108,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Valuation Reset: MVRV Slides Into Macro Correction Territory — What This Means At present, the $107,000–$108,000 range is acting as a critical barrier, and Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim this zone could determine its short-term direction. The current consolidation suggests a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with buyers aiming to push for a breakout, while sellers are attempting to cap further upside. The outcome of this battle may set the tone for the next decisive move in the market. If the current momentum fails to hold, Crypto Candy suggests a pullback to lower levels could follow, giving bears another short-term edge. However, Crypto Candy added that if Bitcoin successfully reclaims the $107,000–$108,000 range, the market could shift back in favor of the bulls. Such a breakout would likely trigger renewed buying pressure, potentially driving the price higher toward the $116,000–$118,000 zone or even beyond. BTC Faces Rejection At Resistance, Support At $105,000 In Focus Presenting an outlook, Crypto VIP Signal revealed that BTC has recently reached a key resistance area but was immediately rejected on its first attempt. This initial failure suggests that a significant pocket of selling pressure is positioned at that level. Related Reading: Bitcoin Recovery Lacks Conviction, Market Signals Another Pullback Risk Following this rejection, the price has now moved down to the $105,000 support level. The analyst stresses that the market must hold this specific price point, as it represents a crucial line of defense against a deeper pullback. Crypto VIP Signal warns that if there is a decisive break and a close below $105,000, the market could see a significant drop toward the next major support in the $103,000 zone. However, the crypto analyst highlighted that another attempt to retest the initial resistance area is expected in the coming days. This implies the rejection may be a healthy setback before bulls try to breach the critical ceiling again. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
CryptoQuant’s head of research has revealed how the “Apparent Demand” metric is now showing growth for the first time in more than a month. Bitcoin Apparent Demand Has Flipped Positive Recently In a new post on X, Julio Moreno, head of research at on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, has talked about the latest trend in the Apparent Demand for Bitcoin. This metric measures, as its name suggests, the amount of spot demand that’s currently present for the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: XRP To $10? Analyst Reveals What Could Be The Spark The indicator’s value is calculated by taking the difference between BTC’s production and changes in its inventory. “Production” here refers to the amount that miners are introducing into circulation each day. Similarly, the asset’s “inventory” is the amount stashed away in the 1-year inactive supply. Now, here is the chart shared by Moreno that shows how the 30-day sum of the Apparent Demand has changed over the last few months: As displayed in the above graph, the 30-day sum of the Bitcoin Apparent Demand fell into the negative territory last month, suggesting demand for the asset was decreasing. Recently, however, the metric has witnessed a sharp surge back into the positive territory. Thus, it would appear that, for the first time since early October, demand for BTC is growing again. While spot buying demand may be growing now, attention over in the perpetual futures market is down. As on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has pointed out in an X post, the Bitcoin Futures Open Interest has remained at low levels since last month’s leverage flush. The Futures Open Interest here refers to an indicator that keeps track of the total amount of perpetual futures positions related to Bitcoin that are currently open on all centralized exchanges. From the chart, it’s visible this metric saw a huge plunge in October as the drawdown in the BTC price liquidated a large amount of positions. The indicator has remained at its lows since this decline, indicating that there isn’t much speculative buildup happening in the market. “Derivatives activity has slowed materially, mirroring the broader backdrop of subdued market sentiment,” noted Glassnode. Related Reading: XRP Jumps To $2.56 Despite 240% Increase In Profit Taking Another side of the sector where demand has been weak is the US spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). As the chart shared by Glassnode in a separate X post shows, the US Bitcoin spot ETFs have mostly seen outflows since early October. “This trend points to a broader de-risking phase among ETF investors,” explained the analytics firm. BTC Price Bitcoin has retraced some of its latest recovery as its price has come down to $103,200. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Chartered Market Technician (CMT) Tony “The Bull” Severino argues that Bitcoin’s most dependable macro tell—the copper-to-gold ratio—has broken character at the very moment the market typically enters a parabolic phase, leaving the post-halving script in disarray and altcoins without their usual rotation. Why The Copper/Gold Ratio Is Crucial For Bitcoin In a 16-minute video analysis published on November 10, Severino frames the copper/gold ratio as a “growth versus fear index,” where copper strength signals expansion, rising yields and appetite for risk, while gold outperformance maps to recession risk, falling yields and risk-off behavior. “When gold is performing better than copper, it typically means economic slowdown [and] general recession fears,” he said, adding that copper’s industrial demand anchors the ratio to the business cycle. The punchline: the ratio’s cyclical turn that historically coincides with Bitcoin’s vertical phase simply never arrived. “They say the most dangerous thing to say in investing is that this time is different. Well, this time is different,” Severino said. “The business cycle based on the copper versus gold ratio did not turn back up.” Severino contends that the four-year halving lore is at best incomplete and at worst misattributed. He overlays prior halving dates with a Fisher Transform signal on the copper/gold ratio and observes that the true inflection has historically been macro, not supply-driven. “I never really thought it was the halving,” he said. “The same halving date started a bull run in the Nasdaq […] the halving in Bitcoin would not really have any effect on tech stocks.” In his construction, the halving has coincided with, rather than caused, the ratio’s upswing and a risk-on impulse that typically propels Bitcoin beyond prior highs into a final, parabolic leg. Related Reading: Why Is Bitcoin Up Today? Key Reasons Explained This cycle diverged. After briefly producing a “higher high” in the ratio—the first since roughly 2010—copper/gold failed to establish a higher low and instead printed “another lower low,” marking, in Severino’s words, the lowest reading in about 15 years on his chart—“since pretty much since the Great Recession.” The Fisher Transform that had historically flipped up to confirm the risk-on window never delivered the full follow-through. “It was supposed to send Bitcoin into the final stage of its parabolic rally […] we didn’t go parabolic after going above all-time high. We’re just kind of meandering sideways.” Is The Bitcoin Cycle Top In? Timing-wise, that failure matters. Severino measures roughly a year between the ratio’s go-signal and Bitcoin’s cycle top in prior episodes. By that yardstick, “we really should have topped” already or, if anchored to the March breakout above the 2021 high, would at least be entering a risk-off window. But without the definitive risk-on impulse, the cycle landmarks blur. “Because we didn’t get the full risk on, I don’t know where the risk off signal is,” he said. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Analysis: Pre-Rally Signals Point To $180,000 Target In Q1 2026 The implications extend to altcoins and Bitcoin dominance. Historically, the ratio’s green “risk-on” phase lined up with “alt season,” but this time the setup never materialized. “You normally get your alt season at these green points […] We didn’t get it here,” Severino said, noting Bitcoin dominance is holding key support on higher-timeframe views. He also highlights an “extremely strong negative correlation” between Bitcoin and the copper/gold ratio at present; in past cycles, correlation drifting toward zero tended to coincide with altseason. “None of the conditions for altcoin season seem to be here based on past economic signals,” he added. Severino stops short of a deterministic call. The ratio’s trend structure is ambiguous—one failed breakout from a long downtrend does not make an uptrend—and the Fisher signal could still turn. But until it does, he argues, macro says caution. “We’re still in the fear sort of side of this ratio. We need to still be defensive and we should be risk off. When this starts to turn back up, we can consider being bullish risk assets again.” That ambiguity, he suggests, is precisely why Bitcoin’s post-ATH drift has defied the well-worn four-year narrative: “It just didn’t do the same thing as it did in the past […] We are different. It is genuinely different this time.” At press time, BTC traded at $104,486. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s next chapter is unfolding, and Beyond is constructing a bridge that links BTC’s unmatched security and store-of-value status with the dynamic utility of modern blockchain ecosystems. This is a redefinition of BTC’s role in the global financial architecture, opening pathways for integration that could finally merge the worlds of traditional finance and decentralized networks. Why Interoperability Is The Key To Bitcoin’s Next Phase The crypto world has grappled with a fundamental paradox, and Beyond is building the bridge that Bitcoin has been waiting for. The Founder of DrAlphaweb3 and ordinalcarrots, Dr.OVG, has highlighted that BTC will remain the leading store of value, but in many decentralized finance (DeFi) setups, it is either locked out or wrapped. Related Reading: Bitcoin (BTC) Holds $100K as Investors Move Toward This New DeFi Crypto Project By enabling BTC liquidity to move natively across chains, like layer 1s, layer 2s, and various DeFi protocols, Beyond is set to unleash BTCFi. Specifically, the initiative will enable BTC holders to lend, borrow, earn yield, and deploy their BTC without sacrificing decentralisation and security. This innovation is critical because it will unlock BTC utility as it grows to transition into an active player in the global DeFi economy. Dr.OVG concluded that traders might see some crazy runners, so individuals should position themselves accordingly. A project and protocol writer, Mattcrypted, has also mentioned that BTCFi thrives with seamless UX powered by LayerZero’s Omni-chain Fungible Token (OFT) technology. Meanwhile, Beyond bridges connections with Echoport Ordinals to 140+ chains and 200+ partners for users to move BTC and LSTs effortlessly. With Beyond mainnet set to go live in Q4, the network will support the meta protocol, sidechain wrappers, and L2 integrations. In this innovation, the dual sale structure behind the upcoming project is also designed to deliver bear market-proof valuation for token sales. The combination of a token launchpad and Ordinals participation will ensure wide accessibility during the token sales. On the technical front, EVMs would seamlessly operate as a trusted protocol backed by Animoca Brands and vVv, which is bullish, and Beyond would pioneer BTC connections across the ecosystem. Why Bitcoin Next Chapter Demands Interoperability Bitcoin is not meant to stay siloed. According to a Web3 builder, Jaouad, Beyond is a native BTC L1 interoperability layer that enables seamless movement of any token within Bitcoin while linking the flagship crypto, BRC-20s, Runes, and more to over 100 chains. Related Reading: Big Bitcoin Holders Are Selling, But Few Buyers Are Stepping In As Demand Weakens Jaouad stated that as a Wallchain Quaker, he’s actively grinding on the Beyond Mindshare Leaderboard, as 4% of the total BYD supply is dedicated to contributors, with 2% reserved for Epoch 1, which will wrap up on December 8. “If you are serious about BTCFi, this is the bridge you cannot ignore,” Jaouad noted. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com