Bitwise Research has shed light on how holding durations can impact the ROI and outcomes of Bitcoin (BTC) investments, revealing a major distinction between short-term risk and long-term performance. The data shows that while short holding periods carry significant chances of loss, extended investment timeframes dramatically reduce downside risks. The findings are drawing significant attention in the crypto community as investors reassess their strategy in the ongoing bear market. Why Holding Bitcoin For Long Carries Less Risk New research compiled by Bitwise and shared by crypto analyst Bitcoin Archive indicates that the probability of incurring losses on Bitcoin declines as the holding period increases, based on historical performance spanning more than a decade. The chart, sourced from Glassnode, shows that short-term exposure to BTC carries the highest level of uncertainty and the greatest likelihood of loss. Related Reading: XRP Sentiment Is Sitting At Levels That Have Led To A Price Rally, But Is This Time Different? The numbers on the chart highlight just how unstable the Bitcoin price can be in the near term. If someone buys and sells within a day, their chances of losing money increase substantially. Even holding for a month does not improve things much, suggesting that short term price movements are largely unpredictable and driven by noise, speculation, and rapid sentiment shifts. Looking at the chart’s numbers, a one-day holding period has a 47.1% chance of loss, while a one-week period shows a similar risk of 44.7%. Even at monthly intervals, the probability of loss stays elevated, reflecting the risks faced by active traders. Bitwise shows that holding BTC for just one month results in a marginal decline to 43.2%, underscoring the strong volatility across shorter timeframes. However, as the holding period increases, the risk begins to decline noticeably. By the time an investor holds Bitcoin for several months or up to a year, the probability of loss drops, but remains significant. The chart shows that at the quarterly level, the probability of loss decreases to 37.6%. For over a year, the likelihood of loss drops further to 24.3%, highlighting a clear contrast when holding for just a day. Bitcoin Loss Probability During Multi-Year Holds Most success stories and outsized returns in the crypto market typically come from whales or investors who have held BTC for 5 to more than 10 years. The profit margins of these investors are significantly larger than those of short-term traders who move in and out of positions based on market conditions and short-term hype. Related Reading: XRP Analyst Says It’s ‘Almost Certain’ That Price Will Reach $1,000 In This Timeframe Bitwise research data confirms this trend, showing that meaningful reductions in loss probability only appear over multi-year holding periods. Investors who hold BTC for over three years see their probability of loss fall sharply to 0.7%, while holding for beyond five years reduces it further to 0.2%. Across the ten-year range covered by the data, there were no recorded instances of investors selling at a loss, indicating that all observed holding periods of that length resulted in gains. The findings suggest that while Bitcoin remains highly unpredictable in the short term, its long-term performance has consistently and historically favored patient investors. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin price is back in the spotlight and not quietly either. After weeks of chop and hesitation, the broader crypto market flipped risk-on almost overnight, and suddenly, Bitcoin price is pushing into territory that traders were doubting just days ago. So what changed? Not the charts alone. This one’s macro-driven. Middle East Calm Sparks Risk-On …
Bitcoin climbed toward $80,000 after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was fully open to commercial traffic for the remainder of the ceasefire period, easing pressure on one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints and triggering a broader risk-on move across markets. The largest cryptocurrency rose 5% on the news to as high as […]
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US President Donald Trump took to Truth Social to announce that the Strait of Hormuz is now fully open for passage — a declaration that came hours after Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, confirmed the waterway would be unblocked for all commercial vessels during the remaining period of the US-Iran ceasefire. Related Reading: Bitcoin, Ethereum Trading Expands As Charles Schwab Enters Crypto Market Trump Weighs In As Bitcoin Climbs Bitcoin reacted fast. The leading cryptocurrency jumped sharply after Araghchi’s announcement and rose above $77,000 — its highest mark since February. At the time of reporting, it was trading around $77,300, up more than 1.8% on the day, according to CoinMarketCap data. Trump had expressed optimism the previous day that the war with Iran would soon end. His Truth Social post citing Iran’s announcement added weight to what was already a significant shift in the region’s security posture. “The Strait will be open for the period of the remaining US-Iran ceasefire, which expires on April 22,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said. The ceasefire between the US and Iran has a hard deadline — April 22. The Strait reopening is tied to that window, and Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization has already announced a coordinated route that vessels will be required to follow. Lebanon Deal Unlocks The Wider Equation The decision to reopen the Strait did not happen in isolation. Iran had long maintained that Lebanon was part of the conditions it agreed to in its ceasefire with the US. When Israel and Lebanon struck a 10-day ceasefire deal, it cleared a key condition for Iran to act. The Lebanon agreement, in effect, opened the door for the Hormuz announcement. That chain of events — Lebanon deal, then Hormuz reopening, then Bitcoin rally — unfolded within a compressed period, catching markets mid-session. The crypto market responded across the board, with broader sentiment lifted by reduced tensions in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical shipping lanes. A significant share of global oil exports passes through it. Any closure or threat of closure tends to rattle energy markets and risk assets alike. Its reopening, even on a temporary basis, removes one source of uncertainty for traders. Related Reading: Bitcoin Pressure Builds As Miners Dump 32K BTC In Just 3 Months What Happens After April 22? The current arrangement has a short shelf life. The ceasefire between the US and Iran expires in five days. Whether it gets extended — and whether the Strait remains open past that point — depends on negotiations that are still ongoing. Reports indicate that Iran views the Lebanon ceasefire as validation of its broader position in the talks. A resolution to the wider conflict, if reached, would likely be seen as a positive signal for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. For now, the price reaction suggests traders are pricing in a degree of cautious optimism. No formal extension to the US-Iran ceasefire has been announced. Featured image from SeaTradeMaritimeNews, chart from TradingView
Crypto analyst Mattsby has highlighted the best chart for market participants seeking the clearest macro picture for XRP. He also provided a bullish outlook for the altcoin, noting that a key resistance is now flipping into support. This Chart Paints The Best Macro Picture For XRP In an X post, Mattsby urged market participants to zoom out to the 2-month chart and add the 20SMA if they want to see the clear, well-defined macro trend for XRP. He noted that history shows that XRP has bullish momentum and room to run higher whenever it is above the 20SMA. On the other hand, the altcoin could be preparing for a potentially long, painful consolidation before the next big leg, as long as it remains below this level. The analyst noted that XRP has been trading this key moving average since November 2024 and that what was once resistance is now flipping into solid support. He explained that this is why he is staying bullish on the altcoin despite the current price action. Mattsby added that support is holding and that the macro trend is intact. Crypto analyst Chart Nerd also provided a bullish outlook for XRP. In an X post, he stated that after months of sustained pressure, multiple timeframes suggest bullish relief is on the table for XRP. He highlighted $1.54 and $1.87 as levels the altcoin could reclaim during this relief rally. He also noted that $1.560 is the immediate resistance that XRP could face on this rally to the upside. It is worth noting that XRP is already seeing a relief rally, bouncing alongside Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. XRP Still Trapped Below A Key Resistance In an X post, crypto analyst CasiTrades warned that XRP remains trapped below resistance, noting the altcoin has been ranging below $1.6 for over 68 days. In line with this, she declared that nothing has changed on the macro plan for XRP. It is worth noting that the analyst is currently bearish, predicting further crashes for the altcoin. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Says It’s Time To Swap Bitcoin For XRP, Here’s Why CasiTrades stated that, at the moment, there is a wait for XRP to do one of two things. The first could be a move down to the macro support levels at $1.09 and $0.87. Meanwhile, the second could be a break and hold above $1.65, which will flip the market bullish. Until then, she noted that the current price action is just continued chop, with XRP stuck in a tight range between $1.28 and $1.39. The analyst added that she expects continuation toward the lower supports once XRP breaks below $1.28. At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $1.43, up over 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Sketchfab, chart from Tradingview.com
Strategy formerly MicroStrategy has reached a breakeven zone on its huge Bitcoin position as its average buy price of about $75577 per coin is now almost equal to current trading levels near $75500 to $75800. The company holds 780897 BTC valued at roughly 59 billion dollars and remains the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, controlling about …
Charles Schwab is charging into the crypto space with fees lower than its closest rival — and a customer base that dwarfs most financial platforms in America. Related Reading: Bitcoin Pressure Builds As Miners Dump 32K BTC In Just 3 Months A Slow Roll, Not A Full Launch The Texas-based brokerage has begun offering spot Bitcoin and Ethereum trading through its Schwab Crypto platform, operated via Charles Schwab Premier Bank. But don’t expect every customer to get access right away. The rollout starts with an internal employee pilot, moves to a client waitlist, then opens more broadly through the rest of Q2 2026. Customers in New York and Louisiana are currently left out. When it does fully open, the potential reach is staggering. Schwab manages close to $1.50 trillion in assets and holds accounts for up to 46 million active brokerage clients, served by 16,000 financial advisors. That kind of scale puts Schwab in a league of its own among brokerages now entering the crypto market. The firm set its trading fee at 0.75% — undercutting Fidelity Crypto’s 1% rate. Whether that gap is enough to pull customers from established platforms remains to be seen, but it gives Schwab a concrete edge on price. Robinhood Still Holds Some Ground Schwab won’t have the field to itself. Robinhood, which has been in the crypto trading space for years, offers more than 15 cryptocurrencies, operates in the EU and Asia-Pacific markets, and allows users to transfer crypto to external wallets. Schwab, for now, is starting with just Bitcoin and Ethereum. Reports indicate Schwab plans to add more cryptocurrencies down the line, along with AI tools, as it looks to capture a bigger share of demand from investors who want crypto alongside their traditional holdings. The brokerage described the crypto push as part of a broader effort to grow revenue sources. Earnings Miss Clouds An Otherwise Strong Quarter The crypto announcement landed on the same day Schwab posted its first-quarter 2026 results. Net revenue climbed 16% year over year to $6.48 billion — a record — but fell just short of the $6.50 billion analysts had expected. That narrow miss hit the stock hard. Shares of Schwab (NYSE: SCHW) dropped 7.70% on the day, trading at $92.51. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Faces First Test At $76K As Sellers Step In: Analysts Bitcoin touched $75,000 on the same day, pushed higher by strong inflows into spot ETFs and optimism around a potential US-Iran ceasefire. Ethereum moved in the opposite direction, slipping 0.75% to $2,355 after a large holder offloaded roughly 120,000 ETH — nearly $60 million worth — taking profit on a long position. Schwab’s entry adds another major name to the growing list of traditional financial institutions now offering direct access to crypto assets, bringing Bitcoin and Ethereum further into the mainstream of everyday investing. Featured image from MetaAI, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has reclaimed and held above the $75,000 region after the latest rebound, but derivatives data shows the recovery lacks broad conviction. Bitcoin In The Middle Of A Credibility Problem Bloomberg claims Bitcoin has a credibility problem right now. Funding rates on perpetual futures have stayed negative for around a month and a half, meaning leveraged traders are still paying to stay short even as spot grinds higher. This divide ranks among the largest this year between spot price action and how derivatives traders are positioned. Bitcoin has climbed about 14% off its April lows, helped by renewed inflows into US‑listed ETFs and fresh accumulation by Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin treasury firm, MicroStrategy. Related Reading: Hyperliquid’s HIP‑3 Open Interest Skyrockets— Is 24/7 Tokenized Equity About To Rewrite Wall Street? Such a gap between positioning and price rarely lasts long, and it usually ends brutally for someone. When Bitcoin keeps grinding higher, traders shorting the move rack up losses and can be forced to rush in and buy back their positions, driving an abrupt, self‑reinforcing spike known as a short squeeze. The longer this standoff drags on, the more violent that eventual reversal can become. BTC OI-Weighted Funding Rate. Source: Bloomberg. The data brought by Bloomberg shows that net flows into US‑listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have hit about $332 million so far this week, with roughly $26 million added on Thursday alone. By 8 a.m. in London on Friday, Bitcoin was changing hands near the $75,000 mark. This has been one of the longest bearish funding streaks since the post‑FTX capitulation period in late 2022, when sentiment was similarly washed‑out. A Short-Squeeze Risk Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, told Bloomberg that “Traders are actively building short positions and betting against a breakout, creating conditions where a short squeeze becomes more likely if upward momentum persists”. The current structure looks like a textbook squeeze setup. Negative funding shows that short sellers still dominate leverage and are paying to stay in the trade, even as Bitcoin grinds higher. That slow grind means many of those shorts are already underwater but haven’t capitulated yet, leaving them vulnerable. At the same time, spot liquidity looks thin, so any sharp move can quickly ripple through derivatives and turn into a fast, cascading squeeze. Bloomberg explains that the short-heavy backdrop looks even more fragile given the wave of bullish catalysts hitting the market at the same time, any one of which could spark the kind of upside jolt that forces bears to scramble out of their positions. A Soft Recovery For Bitcoin? MicroStrategy has disclosed two purchases worth a combined $2.6 billion in just the past two weeks, a steady bid that FalconX senior derivatives trader Bohan Jiang says has helped support prices. On top of that, Charles Schwab has unveiled plans to roll out spot crypto trading this year and floated the idea that clients could dedicate up to 8.8% of their portfolios to Bitcoin. This signals just how much fresh demand could still be waiting in the wings. Over the past week alone, US‑listed Bitcoin ETFs have pulled in more than $800 million, flipping from the outflows seen earlier in the year to strong net demand. Every new leg of ETF buying pushes prices higher and makes it more expensive for short sellers to sit in losing trades, ratcheting up the squeeze pressure that has been quietly building in the derivatives market for weeks. Related Reading: Bitcoin Derivatives Are The Earliest Signal Of A Quantum Selloff: Joshua Lim According to Bloomberg, bearish traders could still come out ahead if this latest bounce ultimately breaks down. Deribit data shows options desks paying up for downside protection, with notable open interest clustered in put contracts around the $60,000 and $50,000 strikes. They called this a soft recovery. Laurens Fraussen, research analyst at Kaiko, believes that Bitcoin might see rally that is sure to “catch some people off guard”. Fraussen claims that a break above $76,000 could see BTC extend toward $85,000. At the moment of writing, BTC trades for almost $76k on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview. Cover image from Perplexity. BTCUSDT chart from Tradingview.
About 20% of the Bitcoin mining industry is operating at a loss right now. That single fact explains much of what has been unfolding across the sector in early 2026, as publicly traded miners race to sell off holdings just to keep the lights on. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Faces First Test At $76K As Sellers Step In: Analysts Profits Squeezed To The Bone Hashprice — the daily revenue a miner earns per unit of computing power — has been sliding since July 2025. It now sits at roughly $33 per petahash per second per day, according to data from Hashrate Index. The breakeven point for many miners, particularly those running older machines, is around $35. That gap, small as it looks on paper, is pushing a large chunk of the industry into the red. Major publicly traded miners — among them MARA, CleanSpark, Riot, Cango, Core Scientific, and Bitdeer — collectively offloaded more than 32,000 BTC during the first three months of 2026, according to TheEnergyMag. That figure eclipses everything those same companies sold across all four quarters of 2025. It also surpasses the previous quarterly record of roughly 20,000 BTC, set during Q2 2022 when the collapse of the Terra-Luna ecosystem sent markets into a tailspin. Three compounding forces drove miners to that record: a rising network hashrate that has made competition fiercer, reduced block rewards following the most recent halving, and broader economic headwinds that have kept Bitcoin prices under pressure. Miner Reserves Have Been Draining For Years The selling in Q1 2026 did not come out of nowhere. Data from CryptoQuant shows that total Bitcoin held by miners across the board has been falling since 2023. At the close of that year, miners collectively held more than 1.86 million BTC. That number has since dropped to approximately 1.8 million. The trend is slow but steady — and the first quarter’s record sales may have accelerated it further. Asset manager CoinShares, in its Q1 2026 Bitcoin Mining Report, warned that more pain could be coming. Higher-cost operators should expect continued capitulation in the first half of this year, the firm said, unless Bitcoin’s price stages a meaningful recovery. Think ₿igger. pic.twitter.com/L1yH3n0k7t — Michael Saylor (@saylor) April 12, 2026 Related Reading: ‘Extremely Good News’ – XRP DeFi Momentum Builds As SEC Softens Position On Interfaces Treasury Buyers Step In As Miners Step Back While miners sell, corporate buyers are moving in the opposite direction. Strategy, the largest Bitcoin treasury company by holdings, has continued adding to its position. Co-founder Michael Saylor signaled earlier this week that another purchase was in the works, sharing the company’s BTC acquisition history chart — a move his followers have come to read as a near-certain signal of an imminent buy. Featured image from MetaAI, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin’s quantum risk may show up in derivatives markets well before any compromised coins move on-chain, according to FalconX co-head of markets Joshua Lim, who used an X thread on April 16 to map out what he sees as the most tradable signals around a potential “q-day” event. Lim’s core argument is that the market problem is not simply whether Bitcoin can migrate to post-quantum cryptography. It is also whether the network can politically resolve what to do with Satoshi Nakamoto’s coins and other old outputs that may never participate in such a migration. Quantum Risk Could Hit Bitcoin Through Derivatives Lim framed the issue as two separate questions. The first is technical: how Bitcoin could move away from elliptic curve cryptography used to secure private keys. The second is more fraught. “How to deal with the fundamentally non-mathematical and wholly sociopolitical question of what to do with Satoshi’s coins,” he wrote, arguing that the largest risk around quantum computing is not just cryptographic breakage but the governance crisis that could follow. He said a migration path for most of Bitcoin’s UTXOs is at least conceivable, pointing to BIP 361 as one example of a proposal that addresses both post-quantum migration and the handling of Satoshi-era coins. But that only solves part of the problem. Lim estimated that Satoshi’s holdings amount to roughly 1.1 million BTC, while other old or lost coins in pay-to-public-key addresses could push the total exposed supply to as much as 1.7 million BTC, which he called a “$127bn question.” Related Reading: 9 Reasons Why The Bitcoin Bottom May Already Be In: Expert Those coins, he argued, are different because they likely would not participate in any community-led migration unless Satoshi is still active and willing to move them. That creates two outcomes, neither comfortable for markets. “EITHER Satoshi is still around and can move coins pre q-day, in which case BTC price will tank because the market will re-price the probability of those coins being sold in the future,” Lim wrote. “OR Satoshi is not around and someone will decide to steal the coins via a sufficiently powerful QC.” That is why, in Lim’s telling, Satoshi’s coins are “not a math problem.” The available responses are political. One option would be to burn those coins through governance, a move he said would raise serious questions around immutability, sovereignty, and precedent. The other would be a hard fork that lets the market choose between a chain that neutralizes the coins and one that preserves the current ruleset, even if that leaves open the eventual risk of a quantum-enabled seizure. Lim suggested that even an attempt at the first path could lead to the second. “Our only prophylactic is to EITHER A) burn Satoshi’s coins via governance,” he wrote, before outlining the trade-off, “OR B) create a hard fork and allow for the market to decide which is the true BTC.” In his view, that likely becomes a political contest over Bitcoin’s identity as much as a security response. He added that the most likely quantum thief, if such a scenario emerged, would be “a state-level actor.” From there, Lim shifted from theory to market structure. He contrasted any future fork with Bitcoin’s August 2017 split, which produced BTC and BCH. Back then, he noted, Bitcoin was a roughly $45 billion, mostly retail market, and many holders welcomed the fork because it effectively created an additional asset. Today’s market is different: around $1.5 trillion, far more institutional, and wrapped in ETFs, listed futures, and options. That changes how risk would likely transmit. “A hard fork today, or even the prospect of one, would be an entirely different beast,” Lim wrote. “It would result in extreme volatility and likely downward price action: a large gap down and massive cascading liquidations.” He added that if the community were close to evenly split on whether to burn exposed coins, institutional investors might have a mandate to de-risk ahead of the event, amplifying downside pressure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Eye $78,000, But Glassnode Urges Caution That is where derivatives come in. Lim argued the earliest warning signs of q-day risk are most likely to emerge in long-dated options skew, forward basis, and the distribution of open interest across traditional and crypto-native venues. He pointed out that long-dated BTC put skew is near multi-year highs, with downside protection relatively expensive compared with calls, and said the last comparable elevation came around the Three Arrows Capital and FTX collapses in 2022. He also flagged long-dated basis, noting that Bitcoin futures are trading near multi-year lows relative to spot. In Lim’s framework, q-day risk should compress or even invert basis because market participants hedge for downside while others position for a possible fork-related “airdrop,” similar in concept to 2017. Since the timing of any quantum breakthrough would be uncertain, he expects those signals to appear farther out on the curve. Still, he stopped short of saying the market is already pricing an imminent quantum event. Some signals are “flashing red,” he wrote, but they can also be explained by broader systemic risks or secular shifts, including growing institutional participation through venues such as CME and IBIT options. For now, Lim described the picture as mixed. His broader point was simpler: if q-day ever begins to look real, traders likely will not first see it in dormant coins moving. They will see it in derivatives. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $75,024. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin traders are already betting the wider US-Iran ceasefire will hold. Data from prediction market Polymarket puts the odds of a permanent peace deal by April 22 at 23%. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Faces First Test At $76K As Sellers Step In: Analysts Markets React To Diplomatic Breakthrough That confidence is showing up in Bitcoin’s price. The world’s largest cryptocurrency climbed to $74,650 on Thursday, bouncing back from an intraday low of around $73,050, according to TradingView data. The move came within hours of US President Donald Trump announcing a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon — a deal that had been quietly taking shape following direct talks between the two countries on US soil the day before. Trump made the announcement on Truth Social, saying both sides had agreed to begin the truce immediately as part of broader efforts toward lasting peace. Short. Direct. And enough to move markets. Nuclear Talks Add To Optimism The Israel-Lebanon deal matters beyond its own terms. Iran had made clear it would walk away from its own ceasefire agreement with the US if Israeli strikes on Lebanon did not stop. With that condition now met, the path to a second round of US-Iran peace talks looks more open. Reports from Pakistani mediators indicate a major step forward on Iran’s nuclear program, which was the main sticking point when the two sides failed to reach a deal in the first round of negotiations last weekend. Bitcoin had already touched a multi-month peak of $76,000 earlier this week, driven by growing optimism that the US-Iran conflict could wind down. The war had weighed heavily on risk assets from its early days, with rising oil prices stoking inflation fears that kept investors cautious. As those concerns ease, money has started moving back into crypto. Ceasefire Extension In Focus Tensions remain, even if they have softened. Trump’s decision to blockade the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week rattled nerves, though markets have since stabilized. The window for a resolution is narrow. Both the US-Iran truce and the newly announced Israel-Lebanon ceasefire are short-term arrangements, not permanent agreements. Related Reading: ‘Extremely Good News’ – XRP DeFi Momentum Builds As SEC Softens Position On Interfaces Still, the mood among traders has shifted. Pakistani officials are said to be shuttling communications between Washington and Tehran ahead of a potential second round of talks. Based on reports, both governments continue to engage through back channels even as formal negotiations pause. Whether the ceasefires hold — and whether they grow into something more durable — will likely determine where Bitcoin heads next. Featured image from ddnews.gov.in, chart from TradingView
Altcoin season in 2026 remains uncertain as key conditions for a strong rally have not yet fallen into place. The main reasons are weak Bitcoin momentum and unclear global economic conditions. A crypto market analyst, Virtual Bacon, has cautioned that it may not be the right time to buy or hold altcoins, as current conditions …
There are many different indicators that analysts have used to predict the Bitcoin bottom in the past, and the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) is one of them. Mostly, these indicators are known for predicting the bottom because when they have appeared in the past, it did not take long until the Bitcoin price reached the lowest level of the cycle. The interesting thing about the CVDD flashing now is how low it is putting the BTC price before it finds a bottom. CVDD Says Bitcoin Price Is Going Lower The Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) was highlighted by crypto analyst TradingShot as an indicator that has predicted Bitcoin’s price bottom in the past. Usually, when this indicator is triggered, it is not long before the bottom is reached. Moreso, the Bitcoin price tends to drop a bit lower than the price the CVDD points to before bottoming. Related Reading: Meme Coin Unicorns That Are Now Basically Dust Again Given how this indicator has performed in the past, it puts into perspective where the Bitcoin price might be in this cycle. Presently, the bulls are still holding above $70,000 while the CVDD is pointing to $49,280. This would mean that the Bitcoin price has actually not reached a bottom and could continue to decline again. In addition to this, the MA200 on the 1-Day chart would need to confirm the bottom as a buy follow-up. When this happens, the crypto analyst says it means that the Bitcoin price has entered another bull cycle. Thus, if the digital asset follows the CVDD, then there would be a more than 30% crash coming. Bull Market Peak Indicators Say Top Is Not In While most analysts in the market are shooting to game the Bitcoin bottom, other indicators are pointing toward the fact that the digital asset hasn’t hit its peak yet. According to the 30 Bitcoin Bull Market Peak Indicators tracked by the Coinglass website, the bull market might not be over yet. Related Reading: Here’s How Much Of The XRP Supply That ETFs Now Control One indicator that is yet to hit is the Bitcoin dominance, which hasn’t shown any signs of retracing. Instead, the pioneer cryptocurrency continues to dominate the market, leaving altcoins in the dust. Also, the Bitcoin long-term holder supply has not peaked, and the Bitcoin short-term holder supply follows the same trajectory. Since none of the 30 indicators have been triggered, the tracker suggests that this might be the time to buy BTC and not sell. However, there are still the macroeconomic and political factors, such as the US-Iran war, to consider, as these could also negatively impact the Bitcoin price and where the bottom might form. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
Swan Bitcoin Managing Director John Haar argued on Wednesday that the market’s repeated comparison between the current cycle and the 2022 bear market misses a fundamental point: the backdrop has changed. In a post on X, Haar said Bitcoin’s roughly $65,000 to $70,000 range has acted as a floor for the past two months and may already represent the cycle bottom. His case rests on a simple distinction. The forces that broke Bitcoin in 2022: inflation shock, aggressive monetary tightening, collapsing liquidity and industry-wide contagion are, in his view, either gone or materially weaker today. “Those predicting a further decline are drawing comparisons to 2022,” Haar wrote. “But the macro, regulatory, and institutional landscape today is fundamentally different. The nine structural factors below illustrate why the 2022 analogy is unlikely to hold.” A Different Macro Regime Haar began with the macro backdrop, framing inflation and monetary policy as the first major break from the last cycle. In 2022, he noted, CPI hit a 40-year high, eroding purchasing power and giving the Federal Reserve a clear reason to tighten policy aggressively. Today, he described inflation as having stabilized around 2.5% to 3% year over year, a level he sees as far less threatening to risk assets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Eye $78,000, But Glassnode Urges Caution That argument extends to rates, the Fed’s balance sheet and broad money growth. Haar wrote that 2022 brought “the fastest rate-hiking cycle in modern history,” while the present environment is defined by steady or modestly lower rates. He also pointed to what he described as a return of balance-sheet expansion and a multi-year run of month-over-month M2 growth, framing both as liquidity support rather than a headwind. Fiscal policy features prominently in the thread as well. Haar argued that US deficit spending has remained elevated at roughly 5% to 6% of GDP for more than three years, with no meaningful pullback in sight. Taken together, his message is that the macro engine driving the 2022 unwind has been replaced by one that looks, at minimum, more neutral and potentially supportive. Contagion, Then And Now Haar’s sixth point shifts from macro to crypto market structure. In his telling, 2022 was not simply a drawdown but a cascading institutional failure across tightly connected firms. Terra/Luna, Celsius, BlockFi, Three Arrows Capital, Voyager and FTX collapsed in sequence, amplifying losses and destroying confidence across the sector. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Be Near A Bigger Breakout As Key Metrics Turn, Capriole Founder Says He contrasted that period with today’s environment by arguing that institutional counterparties are stronger, even if pockets of stress remain. “BlockFills is an example of institutional failure, but its scale is a fraction of the 2022 failures,” Haar wrote. “This cycle, theories circulate regarding engineered cascading selloffs that ultimately caused leveraged crypto funds to implode.” Institutional Bitcoin Demand The final stretch of Haar’s thesis centers on what he sees as the most important difference between cycles: the scale of institutional demand. He wrote that Strategy deployed about $270 million to acquire roughly 8,000 BTC in 2022, compared with $22.5 billion in 2025 for 226,000 BTC and another $8.5 billion year to date in 2026 for 108,000 BTC. He paired that with the arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs and a broader shift in institutional posture. “Spot Bitcoin ETFs are live with billions in AUM,” Haar wrote. “BlackRock is publicly promoting Bitcoin. Morgan Stanley is launching their own spot Bitcoin ETF. Vanguard reversed course and will allow their clients to buy spot Bitcoin ETFs.” He also cited Harvard’s endowment as holding a sizable Bitcoin position and argued that the federal policy tone in the US has become more openly supportive. Haar stopped short of calling the floor guaranteed. He included a caveat that Bitcoin can still trade below levels that appear technically or structurally supported and warned that shocks ranging from war to supply-chain disruption to energy shortages could still derail the setup. Still, his broader point was clear: if 2022 was defined by tightening, forced liquidations and institutional absence, this cycle may be defined by liquidity, access and deeper capital pools. At press time, BTC traded at $73,862. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price started a fresh increase and cleared the $74,650 zone. BTC is consolidating and might aim for more gains above the $75,500 level. Bitcoin managed to stay above $73,500 and started a fresh increase. The price is trading above $74,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $74,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might extend gains if it stays above the $73,650 and $73,300 levels. Bitcoin Price Eyes Upside Break Bitcoin price found support near $73,200 and started a fresh increase. BTC gained pace for a move above the $73,650 and $74,000 resistance levels. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $74,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. A high was formed at $75,500, and the price is now correcting gains. There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $73,310 swing low to the $75,500 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $74,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $73,800, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $75,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $75,500 level. A close above the $75,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $76,200 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $77,400 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $78,000. Another Drop In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $75,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $74,150 level and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $73,310 swing low to the $75,500 high. The first major support is near the $73,650 level. The next support is now near the $73,300 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $72,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $71,200, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $73,650, followed by $73,300. Major Resistance Levels – $75,000 and $75,500.
A crypto analyst has sparked fresh debate after warning investors to consider swapping their Bitcoin (BTC) for XRP. He argues that the shifting global reserve standards could reshape which digital assets gain institutional favor, potentially positioning XRP as a stronger candidate for long-term adoption. The analyst’s comments align with the central bank’s strict reserve policies, highlighting Bitcoin’s limitations. Crypto Analyst Tells Investors To Dump BTC For XRP Crypto commentator and XRP advocate John Squire is urging investors to dump their Bitcoin for XRP. In a recent X post, Squire shared a video featuring a discussion by the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde on central bank reserve policy. Related Reading: Don’t Celebrate Bitcoin Price Above $70,000, Analyst Says It’s “Very, Very Bad” During the discussion, Largarde reiterated that Bitcoin (BTC) is unlikely to meet the requirements for inclusion in official reserve holdings. The declaration has triggered a wave of reaction across the crypto community, reopening debates about how digital assets fit into the global financial system. This rejection of Bitcoin as a reserve asset in the European Central Bank is the primary reason Squire is urging investors to pivot to XRP. He likely believes that shifting regulatory and institutional preferences could favor XRP over BTC in the long term. Notably, as the world’s largest and most recognized cryptocurrency, Bitcoin has often been touted as a reserve currency despite its volatility and unpredictable nature. Because of its dominant position and widespread institutional adoption, the US government has also repeatedly hinted that Bitcoin could become a strategic reserve currency. However, the same is not true in Europe, where regulators have taken a more cautious, skeptical stance toward Bitcoin, making its inclusion at the ECB far less likely in the near future. Why Bitcoin Does Not Qualify As An ECB Reserve Asset During her discussion, Largarde outlined reasons why the ECB has chosen to exclude Bitcoin entirely from its reserve holdings. She indicated that Bitcoin does not meet the criteria that central banks require for reserve currencies. According to her, Central Bank reserves must remain liquid, secure, and free from concerns linked to illicit activity and financial risks. Related Reading: Why XRP Price Is About To Stage The Breakout Of The Decade Largarde also noted that reserve assets must prioritize stability and trust within the global financial system, reinforcing the cautious stance banks and financial institutions continue to take toward digital assets like Bitcoin. Her remarks quickly drew attention from the crypto community via Squire’s X account. Many market participants debated which digital asset, if any, could align more closely with future reserve settlement frameworks. While some community members agree with Squire to dump their Bitcoin for XRP, others suggest diversifying into both digital assets to mitigate risk. Regardless of the final decision, Largarde’s statements highlight the continued skepticism surrounding cryptocurrencies. Her comments do not represent a direct policy change but rather a reaffirmation of existing central bank principles in the EU. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin short-term holders reacted to the recent price surge by sending a significant amount of BTC to centralized exchanges. Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Deposited 61,000 BTC During The Rally As pointed out by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in an X post, the Bitcoin short-term holders have recently participated in a notable amount of exchange deposit activity. The “short-term holders” (STHs) refer to BTC investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. This cohort represents the weak-minded side of the market that tends to be reactive to volatility. Related Reading: Ethereum Retail Hands Still In Disbelief, Keep Selling Into Strength Since the cryptocurrency’s spot price has seen a recovery surge in the last few days, the STHs could be expected to have reacted to it. And indeed, the exchange inflow data would confirm it. Below is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the 24-hour sum of the exchange inflows being made by Bitcoin STHs over the last few months. As is visible in the graph, the Bitcoin STH exchange inflows saw their 24-hour sum hit a sharp peak during the asset’s surge toward the $76,000 level. This suggests that the new investors transferred large sums to centralized exchanges. Generally, one of the main reasons why holders deposit their coins to these platforms is for selling-related purposes, so a spike in exchange inflows can be a sign of elevated selling pressure in the market. During the recent deposit spree, STH inflows hit 61,000 BTC (worth nearly $4.5 billion at the current exchange rate), which is the highest level since the selloff at the start of February. The February exchange inflow activity followed a sharp crash in the cryptocurrency sector, so it corresponded to panic selling from the STHs. Meanwhile, the latest spike likely represents a push toward profit-taking from these investors instead. In terms of overall exchange inflows, deposit activity hit 11,000 BTC per hour alongside the rally, as CryptoQuant has highlighted in a post on its official X handle. As displayed in the above chart, this spike in the hourly Bitcoin exchange inflow was the largest since December, exceeding the peak from this year’s price crash. Thus, it would appear that the STHs aren’t the only ones who have been looking at the rally as an opportunity to exit. Related Reading: Ethereum MACD Flashes Golden Cross—Price Surged 74%+ Last 3 Times Since the increase in exchange deposit activity has appeared, BTC has seen its price rally stall, indicating that the selling pressure has been strong enough to neutralize the bullish momentum. So far, however, the asset hasn’t outright changed direction, so it only remains to be seen how the market will develop in the coming days. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $74,400, up more than 4% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
America’s top brokerage firm, Charles Schwab, has officially rolled out trading for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) on the Schwab Crypto platform through the Charles Schwab Premier Bank. The phased launch will begin with an internal employee pilot, followed by a client waitlist pilot, followed by deeper expansion throughout Q2, 2026, and beyond. New York …
Bitcoin (BTC) has struggled to advance above major hurdles during the recent recovery, with price action failing to break through the $76,000 resistance level. The market signals also show that several major cryptocurrencies—Ethereum (ETH), Binance Coin (BNB), Solana (SOL), and XRP—managed to track Bitcoin’s rebound. Even with that follow-through, they have likewise not fully cleared their own higher resistance levels. Still, some analysts believe a cluster of supportive factors is starting to line up in a way that could lift both BTC and the broader crypto market to levels not seen since the beginning of the year. ‘Perfect Time’ For Bitcoin In a social media post on X (previously Twitter), market analyst Ash Crypto claimed that Bitcoin’s bullish setup could hardly be better at this point, and attributed that view to six catalysts he believes could push prices higher. Among them, Ash pointed to the S&P 500 reaching a new all-time high, alongside expectations that the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq could also set new highs soon. Related Reading: Bitcoin Policy Institute Maps Out Strategy For US Stablecoin Supremacy Across 5 Policy Areas He also cited US economic data, highlighting that the ISM PMI has been above 52 for three straight months. In addition, Ash also referenced geopolitical headlines, arguing that peace talks involving the US, Iran, Israel, and Lebanon could reduce uncertainty and support risk appetite. On the crypto-specific side, Ash emphasized institutional and ecosystem demand. He noted that Michael Saylor’s Strategy (previously MicroStrategy) and spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are buying billions of BTC each week, framing it as an ongoing source of accumulation. Finally, he suggested that the pace of development is accelerating in response to the “quantum threat,” which he sees as an additional long-term tailwind. Why Altcoin Upside Is Possible Putting those pieces together, Ash concluded that conditions are “the perfect time” for Bitcoin to push toward the $85,000–$90,000 range, and that the move would likely be supportive for altcoins as well. Related Reading: What Presidio Bitcoin Found About Quantum Computing: Threat Timeline And Next Steps If the catalysts he highlighted continue to gain traction—starting from equity strength and macro stability, alongside institutional BTC demand—then both Bitcoin’s ascent and an altcoin resurgence could become increasingly plausible. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan has explained why the Bitcoin price has shown strength amid the US-Iran war, with the leading crypto rallying above $75,000. BTC is notably up over 12% since the war started, outperforming the stock market and gold. Why The Bitcoin Price Has Rallied Above $75,000 Despite U.S.-Iran War In his weekly Bitwise memo, Hougan stated that the Bitcoin price strength during the US-Iran war stems from the conflict itself. He explained that BTC has outperformed gold and the stock market because investors are betting on either of the crypto’s two major use cases or narratives. The first narrative is that Bitcoin will become “digital gold” and so will be able to compete with physical gold in the $38 trillion “store of value” market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Must Hold This Level Or Price Could Crash To $65,000 Again He noted that this is BTC’s current use case, and this narrative may be why the Bitcoin price has rallied amid the US-Iran war as investors see it as a safe haven rather than a risk asset. The Bitwise CIO described this bet on BTC as digital gold as very attractive and predicted that the leading crypto could reach $1 million if it captures 17% of the store-of-value market. Meanwhile, Hougan stated that the second bet on BTC is the belief that it might act like a traditional currency, suggesting that this is another reason that it is outperforming during this ongoing conflict. He noted that this second bet is like an “out-of-the-money call option” where it pays off if BTC is used more widely for international settlement. The Bitwise CIO stated that for most of Bitcoin’s life, it seemed unlikely that it would become a global currency, as until a few years ago, the world relied exclusively on dollar-based financial rails. However, that is now changing. He alluded to Iran receiving BTC for toll payments at the Strait of Hormuz, which has boosted the crypto’s status as a currency and contributed to the Bitcoin price rally. World Monetary Order Is Flipping In BTC’s Favor The Bitwise CIO noted that the US-Iran war has made the world monetary order more volatile, but has also increased the probability that Bitcoin will become a global currency. As such, the war has made BTC a more valuable out-of-the-money call option, which is why the Bitcoin price has shown strength during this period. Related Reading: Analyst Who Successfully Shorted The Bitcoin Price Top Announces A Change In His Plan Hougan added that with Iran’s move to accept BTC payments, the world has taken a step closer to integrating an apolitical currency into the global financial ecosystem. Therefore, whenever conflicts like the US-Iran war occur, the incentive to invest in apolitical assets like BTC increases, which serves as a catalyst for a higher Bitcoin price. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $75,100, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Daily profits from Bitcoin sales are climbing fast — and analysts say a key threshold could determine whether the current rally has legs or runs out of steam. Related Reading: ‘Extremely Good News’ – XRP DeFi Momentum Builds As SEC Softens Position On Interfaces Profit-Taking Still Below Danger Zone Realized daily profits are hovering around $500 million, according to blockchain data firm CryptoQuant. That number matters because $1 billion has historically marked the point where local price peaks tend to form. Reports from CryptoQuant indicate that if Bitcoin pushes closer to its realized price of $76,800, that $1 billion ceiling could be breached — and that is when selling pressure tends to build fast enough to stop a rally cold. Bitcoin touched $76,052 on Coinbase earlier this week, its highest level since early February. The move drew attention across crypto markets, where investors had been watching for signs of a recovery. Hopes for a sustained climb were partly tied to signals that the conflict involving Iran may be winding down, giving risk assets some breathing room. Exchange Inflows Hit A Multi-Month High What happened next raised a flag. As prices climbed, the amount of Bitcoin flowing into exchanges surged. Hourly inflows hit 11,000 BTC — the highest recorded since December. Large inflows like that typically mean one thing: holders are moving coins into position to sell. The average size of each deposit also jumped. At 2.25 BTC per transaction, it reached its highest point since July 2024. CryptoQuant pointed to a similar pattern in January, when average deposits climbed to around 2 BTC just before Bitcoin dropped from $100,000 to roughly $60,000 over the following weeks. That comparison is not lost on analysts watching the current move. Data shows the $76,800 level carries added weight because it represents the average price at which all existing Bitcoin last changed hands — what analysts call the realized price. When an asset trades near that level, many holders find themselves close to breaking even. The temptation to exit is strong. CryptoQuant says that dynamic capped Bitcoin’s upward move in January, and conditions now are similar enough that it could happen again. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Hit $85K Before April Ends, Analyst Says Support Level Waits Below A lower band sits at $67,600, which CryptoQuant identifies as near-term support if the rally stalls and prices pull back. That gives the market a fairly wide range to work with before anything more serious would need to be reassessed. For now, the data suggests the rally is at its first real test. Selling activity is rising but has not yet crossed the levels that typically precede a sharper reversal. Whether buyers can absorb the supply hitting exchanges in the days ahead will likely decide which direction Bitcoin heads next. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin's latest recovery has pushed the flagship digital asset back toward the $75,000 level, tracking a broader return in risk appetite as hopes for de-escalation in the Middle East lifted global equities to fresh records. However, the move is running into a quieter constraint than geopolitics or crypto-specific sentiment: the bond market still shows a […]
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Bitcoin is at a stage where it is too strong to panic, and too uncertain to celebrate. Sitting around the $74,000–$75,000 range, the market looks calm on the surface, but underneath? It’s a psychological tug-of-war where sentiment, not price, is calling the shots. When Crowd Cheers Loudest, Trouble Follows Fast Here’s the uncomfortable truth, per …
Traditional equities like the S&P 500 are staging a historic comeback, shaking off weeks of geopolitical anxiety to chart new all-time highs. Yet Bitcoin, which has historically been a synchronized beneficiary of risk-on sentiment, is noticeably dragging its feet, leaving investors questioning what is missing from its narrative. The S&P 500 closed higher by 0.8% […]
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Fundstrat’s chief investment officer, Tom Lee, says the next big move in markets won’t be led by stocks — it’ll be driven by crypto. Speaking Wednesday on CNBC’s “Closing Bell,” Lee argued that Bitcoin and Ether are positioned to lead the next leg of the rally, alongside the Magnificent 7 tech stocks and the broader software sector. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Hit $85K Before April Ends, Analyst Says Crypto And Tech Move In Step He also said some investors are still sitting on the sidelines, waiting for more clarity on the Middle East conflict before putting money to work — and that their eventual return could push prices higher. His comments came on a day when markets moved decisively. The Nasdaq Composite closed at a new all-time high of 24,016, up 1.60% for the session. The S&P 500 tagged its own record at 7,022, gaining 0.78%. Tech stocks as a group were up more than 2% on the day, according to data from Yahoo Finance. Even as S&P 500 $SPY reached all-time hit today, investors remain skeptical and sidelined: – many said long war = long bear – but stocks bottom on bad news not “good” We expect leaders to be: – crypto $ETH $BTC $BMNR – MAG7/software $MAGS $IGV Great speaking with… https://t.co/5hTtN3Wcl9 — Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FundstratDirect.com (@fundstrat) April 15, 2026 Bitcoin kept pace. The world’s largest cryptocurrency briefly hit $76,000 on Wednesday, up roughly 1.20% over the prior 24 hours. That move was part of a broader run — BTC has climbed nearly 10% over the past two weeks. A War Winding Down Much of Wednesday’s optimism was tied to signals out of Washington. US President Donald Trump said that the US-Iran conflict may be close to ending. “If I pulled up stakes right now, it would take them 20 years to rebuild that country,” Trump said. “We’ll see what happens. I think they want to make a deal very badly.” Trump stopped short of declaring victory. A deal, he made clear, has not been struck. But the tone was enough to lift investor confidence across both equity and crypto markets, with traders interpreting the comments as a sign that the geopolitical pressure weighing on risk assets could soon ease. Related Reading: ‘Extremely Good News’ – XRP DeFi Momentum Builds As SEC Softens Position On Interfaces Bulls See Room To Run Lee, known for his bullish market calls, pushed back against any suggestion that the recent rally has run out of steam. He posted on X that stocks tend to bottom on bad news — not good — making the case that the upward move has further to go. His view is that the market and US economy have held up well despite the ongoing conflict, and that the conditions for continued gains remain in place. Whether crypto leads equities or simply rides alongside them remains to be seen. But on Wednesday, at least, both were pointing in the same direction — up. Featured image from MetaAI, chart from TradingView
The Bitcoin price is approaching a critical resistance zone as a crypto analyst warns of a potential volatility spike ahead. Apparently, an important liquidity cluster is stuck to this key level, with market participants watching closely for a breakout or rejection. How price reacts at this resistance zone could determine whether Bitcoin extends its recent rally from above $74,000 toward $79,000 or faces renewed selling pressure in the near term. Bitcoin Price Nears Next Critical Resistance Level On April 14, Ardi, a crypto market analyst on X, presented a new Bitcoin price analysis, unveiling a key resistance level around $76,000 that could determine the cryptocurrency’s next short-term move during the ongoing bear market. Ardi has pointed to heavy liquidity clustered between $75,000 to $76,000 on his price chart, noting that Bitcoin is now rapidly rising toward this area. Related Reading: XRP Analyst Says It’s ‘Almost Certain’ That Price Will Reach $1,000 In This Timeframe According to the analyst, this resistance zone has been building since early March this year and contains a mix of trapped traders, including late short sellers and early breakout buyers who were caught on the wrong side of price action. Ardi explained that if Bitcoin successfully breaks above the level, it could trigger a chain reaction in the market. He stated that short sellers may be forced to close their positions by buying back, while sidelined buyers could re-enter the market, adding upward pressure to Bitcoin’s price. He noted that this dynamic could push BTC toward the next liquidity pocket between $77,500 and $79,300, where price is likely to face another test of resistance. In the near term, the analyst says he is looking to take quick long trades if the breakout occurs, but only under strict market conditions. Ardi emphasized the importance of BTC not just breaking $76,000, but holding firmly above it. A successful move could see the level flip from resistance into support, signaling that buyers have taken control of the market. On the other hand, failing to hold that level could invalidate the setup and signal a false breakout, potentially leading to an extended price decline. Breakout Above $76,000 May Trigger A Squeeze The $76,000 region is considered particularly significant because of the concentration of market participants there. Ardi noted that many traders will likely react to this level, with some attempting to sell into the strength, which could make a breakout even harder. Despite this, the analyst added that if BTC manages a clean move above this resistance, it could trigger a squeeze higher, potentially accelerating price sharply to the upside. Related Reading: XRP Sentiment Is Sitting At Levels That Have Led To A Price Rally, But Is This Time Different? Looking at the bigger picture, the analyst remains cautious about Bitcoin’s outlook. While a short-term rally is possible, he still considers a lower high on the macro timeframe as the most likely outcome. Based on current market behavior, they suggest that BTC could peak somewhere between $79,000 and $81,000 before facing a fresh round of selling pressure. At the same time, Ardi warned that downside risk remains. He indicated that a price drop below $74,900 is still on the table, and even if Bitcoin attempts a move higher, the $76,000 level could act as a strong barrier due to the amount of liquidity and interest there. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin has climbed back toward a key on-chain resistance zone, but Glassnode says the move still looks more like a fragile rebound than the start of a fully convincing trend shift. In its latest The Week On-chain report, the analytics firm said Bitcoin was trading near $74,000, roughly 5.2% below the True Market Mean at $78,100, a level it framed as the market’s most important near-term test. Glassnode’s central argument is that the market has improved enough to keep the rally alive, but not enough to remove the structural risks overhead. Spot demand has recovered, ETF flows have turned positive again, and institutional exposure is beginning to rebuild. Even so, profit-taking is rising, derivatives positioning remains cautious, and participation is still uneven across venues and investor groups. Glassnode Flags A Fragile Bitcoin Rally Near Major Resistance The report said Bitcoin “has gradually trended higher, now trading near $74k, approximately 5.2% below the True Market Mean, tracing the cost basis of active supply.” It added that while price has not yet broken above that threshold and held it, “the probability of a spike toward and potentially above it remains considerable in the mid-term.” That leaves the market in an awkward position: close enough to resistance for traders to focus on a breakout, but not yet strong enough to suggest the ceiling has truly given way. One of the main reasons Glassnode stops short of endorsing the move outright is the behavior of short-term holders. The firm highlighted the share of short-term holder supply in profit, which measures how much recently acquired supply is sitting on unrealized gains. Historically, local tops in bear market rallies have often formed as that figure approaches its statistical mean of around 54.2%. It currently stands at 43.2%. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Alert: German State Could Take Control of Another 57,000 BTC That, according to the report, means the rally may still have some room to run before it reaches a more typical exhaustion zone. But it is also a reminder that Bitcoin is moving into an area where distribution pressure tends to build, especially if newer market participants start using strength to de-risk. Glassnode sees that process already underway in broader realized profit-taking metrics. The 30-day EMA of the realized profit/loss ratio now sits at 1.16, a reading above 1 that signals realized profits are outpacing realized losses. In the firm’s words, “the current reading of 1.16 confirms that investors are broadly seizing the present rally as an opportunity to exit positions at breakeven or capture thin profit margins. While this is not an immediate reversal signal, a sharp spike in this ratio during a bear market rally has historically been a cautionary indicator of distribution rather than genuine demand recovery.” That distinction runs through the entire report. The rebound is real, Glassnode suggests, but the character of the move still matters. For the rally to evolve into something more durable, the market would need to absorb selling pressure and establish support above $78,100, not merely trade up to it. Off-chain data tells a similar story. Spot cumulative volume delta has improved sharply since February’s capitulation, but the demand profile remains selective. Binance-led buying has outpaced Coinbase, suggesting stronger participation from offshore and retail-driven segments than from the institutional cohort often associated with Coinbase flows. Glassnode called that divergence notable, arguing that sustained rallies typically need broader engagement from both sides of the market. Institutional proxies have also improved, albeit cautiously. CME futures open interest has started rebuilding from local lows, and US spot ETF assets under management have turned higher after a stretch of outflows. Still, neither series has returned to previous highs, which Glassnode said points to “a more cautious re-engagement, rather than a full risk-on shift.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Be Near A Bigger Breakout As Key Metrics Turn, Capriole Founder Says In derivatives, the firm found little evidence of strong directional conviction. Funding rates remain broadly balanced, implied volatility has compressed across the curve, and 25-delta skew continues to favor puts over calls, even if the tilt has softened from more defensive extremes. In plain terms, traders have reduced some of their stress hedging, but they have not rotated aggressively into upside exposure either. Hyperliquid liquidation data reinforces that picture of a reactive market. Dense long liquidations sit between $63,000 and $65,000, while short liquidation clusters are concentrated around $74,000 to $76,000. Recent price action has repeatedly interacted with those zones, suggesting flows and liquidation mechanics are still shaping the range more than strong underlying conviction. Glassnode also flagged dealer positioning as a key near-term market structure factor. A large pocket of negative gamma between $74,000 and $76,000 could amplify moves if spot continues higher, turning what might look like resistance into an area where hedging flows accelerate price. Even so, the report stops well short of declaring a breakout regime. The result is a market that looks healthier than it did during the February washout, but still far from settled. Bitcoin bulls may have a clear target in $78,000, yet Glassnode’s message is that reclaiming it will require more than momentum alone. It will take sustained inflows, deeper institutional participation, and enough real demand to absorb the profit-taking now building into strength. At press time, BTC traded at $74,905. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
The Cato Institute says U.S. bitcoin tax rules are overly complex and discourage everyday use despite growing crypto adoption.
HIVE Digital plans a $75 million zero-coupon note offering to fund GPUs and data centers as it moves to the TSX.
Bitcoin has seen a lot of sell-offs recently that have contributed to the decline in its price. As a result, there has been a lot of panic in the market as the sentiment shifted deep into the negative. However, it seems like the larger investors are actually looking at the current downtrend as an opportunity to fill up their bags. The buying has been rapid recently, suggesting that I stations are actually picking up whatever BTC retail has been dumping on the market. What The Big Players Have Been Up To The last week has seen a lot of activity from large investors when it comes to Bitcoin and the crypto industry at large. Instead of following the crowd and taking a cautious stance, they have instead been buying up coins at a rapid rate, suggesting bullishness among these big players. Related Reading: Bitcoin Has Hit The Last Bull Trap, But The Accumulation Level Lies Much Lower CoinShares reported that numbers for last week had risen rapidly, with institutions putting $1.1 billion into crypto products. As expected, the vast majority of this inflow had moved into Bitcoin, with $871 million moving into BTC products. This move signaled a change in the sentiment toward Bitcoin, especially among large investors, as they continue to pour into the digital asset. In the same vein, Michael Saylor’s Strategy has also continued its Bitcoin buying spree, with its latest purchase coming in on Monday. According to the announcement, the company had spent another $1 billion buying 13,927 BTC at an average of $71,902 per coin. This move brought the public company’s total Bitcoin holdings to $780,897 BTC, with over $59 billion spent buying the digital asset since 2020. It follows the trend that the big players are still very bullish on Bitcoin’s future despite the decline. Bitcoin ETF Inflows Are Still Ramping Up Although there have been some outflows from the Bitcoin ETF funds, the inflows far outweigh the selling. According to data from the Farside Investors website, the inflows far outweigh the outflows for the last week, and the trend has continued in the new week. Related Reading: What The Bitcoin Relief Rally Above $71,000 Says About Where The Price Is Headed Analysts are also predicting that the Bitcoin price will continue to surge, with Merlijn The Trader saying the BTC price will hit $150,000 once the manipulation phase is over. But the decision still remains to be made, and this will happen at $70,000. Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo also pointed out that Bitcoin capital flows have turned positive for the first time since January. This means that liquidity is now returning to the market again and could provide a much-needed prop for the price to continue to rally. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com