CryptoCred, the prominent trader and educator behind Breakout, has warned that crypto’s old market structure may no longer offer the broad, reflexive upside that defined previous cycles. In a blunt assessment posted on X, Cred argued that participation alone is no longer enough, with market quality, liquidity, correlation and speculative attention all deteriorating at the same time. “Crypto’s current state is a bit shit,” Cred wrote, setting the tone for a critique that went beyond short-term price weakness. His argument was not simply that markets are down or that altcoins have underperformed. It was that the assumptions traders carried from earlier cycles may now be structurally less reliable. Crypto Has A Brutal New Problem At the center of his thesis is the idea that market capitalization has become a poor proxy for quality. Cred argued that much of the top 50 now consists of “ghost coins or bloated governance slop” that has underperformed and is difficult to treat as investable. That matters because previous cycles often allowed traders to use size and liquidity as rough filters for relative safety. In his view, that shortcut has become less useful. Related Reading: CEO Behind $4.7 Billion Crash Banned From Crypto, But How Will This Work? The problem is even sharper further down the risk curve. Cred said the long tail of speculative crypto assets has shifted from a high-risk, high-reward arena into something more predatory and time-sensitive, where holding for too long can mean getting caught by insiders, mercenary liquidity or violent rotations. The result is a market where speculation still exists, but the distribution of risk and reward has changed. “Everything is extremely correlated and you can’t meaningfully make bets based on sectors as it all converges into a tightly correlated mush, especially to the downside,” he wrote. “Broad brush alt season is an artefact of the past that’s very hard to replicate given that there are simply too many coins and the excess of speculation doesn’t really happen on centralised exchanges anymore.” That point cuts directly against one of crypto’s most durable cycle narratives: that capital eventually rotates from Bitcoin into majors, then into mid-caps, then into the speculative long tail. Cred’s argument is that the market has become too fragmented for that rotation to work cleanly. With too many tokens competing for attention and much of the highest-velocity speculation happening away from centralized exchanges, the classic “alt season” wealth effect becomes harder to reproduce. He also pointed to a reputational shift. Crypto, in his view, is no longer the obvious frontier for speculative capital. Institutional demand has moved toward artificial intelligence, while retail appetite has been absorbed by 0DTE options, single-name equities and other high-beta venues. That does not mean crypto has no bid. It means it may no longer monopolize the appetite for asymmetric risk. Related Reading: April’s Crypto Carnage: North Korea Hit Twice And Snagged 76% Of 2026 Hack Value The most important part of Cred’s post may be his claim that convexity has flattened. Even assets once treated as relatively safe crypto beta, including BTC and ETH, have disappointed some of the old cycle expectations, he argued. The familiar logic of buying deep drawdowns because new highs and explosive upside were assumed to follow has become harder to justify if the magnitude and reliability of those rebounds are weakening. “Convexity has flattened,” Cred wrote. “Even a lot of the historically safe blue chip stuff has underperformed and the historical anchor of ‘buy deep drawdowns because all-time highs are guaranteed and explosive’ has disappointed. All the shit we used to put up with because of the accessibly massive trend and momentum effects is now harder to justify because those same effects are getting neutered or siphoned off into other arenas.” Cred acknowledged the obvious counterargument: cycles. Crypto has repeatedly gone through periods where market structure looked broken before liquidity returned and risk appetite revived. But he said the most recent cycle itself supports his concern, because gains were “extremely concentrated” rather than broad-based, and “something very obviously broke after 10/10.” His conclusion was that trading crypto now requires more precision than it did in earlier eras. Timing alone may no longer be enough if the rising tide does not lift the entire market. Selection matters more. So does actual trading skill. “Participation alone can be an edge if the asset class is early enough and/or mispriced enough,” Cred wrote. “I don’t think that holds either, and we might actually have to learn how to trade.” At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $2.57 trillion. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
A crypto analyst has shared more insights into the Bitcoin (BTC) price action using a rare Japanese chart pattern called the Renko Mari-Ashi. The chart shows that the Bitcoin price has formed a Double Bottom and could be on the verge of a major breakout. Additionally, it has highlighted the points where the Double Bottom was formed, revealing the area where BTC is likely to start rising again in this cycle. Bitcoin Double Bottom Formation On The Renko Mari-Ashi Chart Geometric, a pseudonymous market analyst on X, said on April 28 that the Renko Mari-Ashi chart is signaling another major bottom formation for Bitcoin. He described this chart as a special Japanese chart that focuses solely on a cryptocurrency’s price movement, not the timing of its actions. Related Reading: Here’s How The Ethereum Vs. Solana Rivalry Is Going He said that this chart was designed to filter out market noise and highlight major trends and reversals in a cryptocurrency. Moreover, unlike traditional candlestick charts, which create a new candle at each interval, the bricks on the Renko Mari-Ashi chart are formed only when the price moves by a specific amount, which can take minutes, hours, or days. Looking at the Bitcoin price action on this rare chart, Geometric tracks the cryptocurrency’s movements from 2018 to the present, highlighting every major bull run and bear market along the way. The chart shows that Bitcoin has now completed a second Double Bottom formation and could be gearing up for a major reversal. The first time a similar Double Bottom pattern appeared was around September 2024, a few weeks before BTC’s historic surge to the $100,000 psychological level. Prior to this, Bitcoin had formed a Double Top, setting the stage for its Double Bottom. Once that price floor was confirmed, BTC exploded above $100,000 in 2025, forming another Double Top pattern. Following the trajectory of the Renko Mari-Ashi chart blocks, Bitcoin crashed below $75,000 around May after hitting $100,000. This massive drop preceded the price reversal that led to the cryptocurrency’s historic all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025. Once this ultimate top was reached, BTC started its current bear market decline, which Geometric says has now led to the formation of a new Double Bottom, similar to the one that emerged in 2024. Where BTC Bottom Stands And When The Uptrend Begins The Renko Mari-Ashi officially places BTC’s current Double Bottom around the $60,000 to $65,000 range. The first bottom formed in February 2026 when BTC crashed down toward $60,000, while the second price floor emerged near $65,000 following a bullish fakeout. Related Reading: XRP Price At $25,000? The ‘Divine’ Prediction That Is Setting The Community On Fire With this Double Bottom now confirmed, Geometric suggests that BTC’s bear market may be over, and price action has returned to the green. He wrote on the chart that the Bitcoin price is now in a bullish breakout zone, signaling a potential strong rally ahead. If price action plays out as it did in 2024, BTC could be headed for another major bull run to new highs this cycle. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
PACTs would let long-term bitcoin holders prepare for a worst-case quantum scenario without moving funds or signaling activity onchain.
Bitcoin pushed to $78,254 Thursday, up 2.69% in 24 hours and outperforming a broader crypto market that rose 2.08%, as a macro risk-on shift lifted digital assets alongside equities. The recovery comes against a backdrop that remains uncertain. President Trump said Thursday he is “not satisfied” with the latest peace proposal from Iran, delivered through …
Bitcoin bulls are back in action after defending the lows just below $75,000, keeping hopes for further upside alive. The BTC price has now reclaimed $77,000 and marked an intraday high of $77,453. However, bearish pressure continues to cap gains near this range. At the same time, the upside move is failing to generate strong …
Bitcoin posted its strongest monthly gain of 2026 in April, rising 12% after rebounding sharply from lows near $60,000. Despite being down 25% year-to-date, the recovery signals renewed investor confidence as traders watch key technical patterns like the bullish “morning star.” Analysts remain divided, with some expecting a push toward $80,000, while others warn of …
Bitcoin ETFs saw billions flow in during April, signaling sustained institutional confidence and reinforcing their growing role as a primary access point for capital. The first half of the month delivered strong, uninterrupted inflows, with several sessions reflecting aggressive allocation patterns. But into the closing phase, that momentum softened, with flows turning uneven and selective …
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted how the latest Bitcoin rejection came inside a zone containing some historically important cost basis levels. Bitcoin Could Find Support At -1 SD Of The STH Realized Price Next In its latest weekly report, Glassnode has talked about a key cost basis zone that Bitcoin retested recently. The region in question involves two major on-chain metrics: the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis and True Market Mean. Related Reading: Dogecoin Surges 11%: Is This Parallel Channel Resistance Next? The first of these, the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, measures the average acquisition price of the short-term holders (STHs), investors who purchased their Bitcoin during the past 155 days. Statistically, the longer investors hold onto their coins, the less likely they become to sell them at any point. Since the STHs represent the new entrants of the market with a relatively low holding time, they can be considered the weak side of the market. Due to their fickle nature, the STHs tend to be sensitive to retests of their cost basis. In bearish periods, this can show up as panic selling around their break-even mark, while in bullish phases they accumulate more at it. The other on-chain level of relevance here, the True Market Mean, tracks the cost basis of the active market participants. It aims to provide a break-even mark for the network as a whole. Currently, the True Market Mean is located at $78,000, while the STH Cost Basis at $79,000. Together, these two levels mark a zone that could act as resistance for the any rallies in this bearish environment. And indeed, BTC’s recent attempt at recovery hit the brakes around these levels. As Glassnode explains: This behavior is a textbook pattern in bear markets, where price approaches the breakeven level of the most price-sensitive cohort, the incentive to exit positions overwhelms incoming demand, exhausting upside momentum. With Bitcoin rejected from this zone, the next major level of interest could be a standard deviation (SD) of the STH Cost Basis. Below is a chart that maps some SDs of the metric for BTC. From the graph, it’s visible that after rejection at the STH Cost Basis, the next level is the -1 SD at $68,000. In the past, this level has often acted as a point of support. It now remains to be seen whether Bitcoin will make another attempt at the resistance zone of the True Market Mean and the STH Cost Basis or if it will have to fall back to support. Related Reading: Bitcoin $90,000 Predictions Surge Across Social Media—Contrarian Signal? BTC’s earlier rally fizzling out is also visible through the lens of STH Realized Profit. As is visible in the below chart, the STHs ramped up their profit-taking as the BTC price marched up. BTC Price Bitcoin has fallen to the $76,400 mark since its pullback. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price started a recovery wave above the $76,500 zone. BTC is consolidating and might aim for more gains if it clears the $76,750 resistance zone. Bitcoin managed to form a base above $75,000 and started a recovery wave. The price is trading below $77,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $76,750 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might gain bullish momentum if it settles above the $77,000 zone. Bitcoin Price Eyes Upside Break Bitcoin price remained supported above the $75,000 zone. BTC formed a base and settled above $75,500 to start a recovery wave. There was a move above the $76,000 and $76,200 levels. The bulls were able to push the price above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $77,888 swing high to the $74,940 low. However, the bears are active near $76,750. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $76,750 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading below $77,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $75,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $76,750 level, the trend line, and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $77,888 swing high to the $74,940 low. The first key resistance is near the $77,000 level. A close above the $77,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $78,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $78,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $80,000. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $76,750 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $76,000 level. The first major support is near the $75,650 level. The next support is now near the $75,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $74,250 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $73,200, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $76,000, followed by $75,650. Major Resistance Levels – $76,750 and $77,000.
Top US officials have increasingly placed Bitcoin (BTC) at the center of national security discussions, and Representative Lance Gooden says the change is more than just political rhetoric. In comments reported Thursday, the Texas Republican argued that the largest cryptocurrency has become a “geopolitical weapon” being used—simultaneously, in his view—by multiple adversaries. Multi-Front Security Use Of Bitcoin Gooden’s remarks follow confirmation from Pentagon leadership. According to reporting by the TFTC agency, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth told him that the Department of Defense is actively involved with Bitcoin in classified operations designed to counter what Hegseth described as “China’s digital authoritarianism.” Gooden quoted Hegseth directly, saying: “I am a long enthusiast of Bitcoin and crypto potential, and a lot of the things we are doing, enabling it or defeating it, are classified efforts that are ongoing inside our department, which do provide us a lot of leverage in a lot of different scenarios.” Related Reading: Hyperliquid Jumps Into The Betting Boom With New ‘Outcome Tokens’ For Real-World Events In recent Senate testimony, Admiral Samuel Paparo—commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command—described Bitcoin as having “incredible potential” as a tool with cybersecurity and wider strategic uses. Paparo told the Senate, “We have a node on the Bitcoin network right now. Bitcoin has direct implications for power projection.” Within that context, Gooden laid out what he sees as a multi-front national security landscape for Bitcoin. He argued that Iran is demanding Bitcoin as a toll for transit through the Strait of Hormuz. BPI Numbers Fuel Gooden’s Claim The Republican also claimed that North Korea-linked hackers are using Bitcoin in ransomware campaigns. And he said China is “believed to be stockpiling substantial holdings as part of its strategic reserve.” Gooden framed his conclusion plainly: “Over the past decade, Bitcoin has evolved from a fringe asset into a matter of national security.” The geopolitical angle is supported by estimates from advocacy and policy groups in the industry. According to the Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI), China holds approximately 194,000 BTC, while the United States holds approximately 328,000 BTC. Related Reading: A Stealth Force In Derivatives—Why Bitcoin Can’t Punch Past $80,000 Yet For Gooden, those figures underscore the shift he says is underway: Bitcoin is no longer treated as a speculative sideshow in finance committees. Instead, he described the market’s leading cryptocurrency as an instrument that can show up in armed services hearings—as an asset relevant to power projection, economic conflict, and reserve accumulation. As of this writing, BTC is trading at approximately $76,384, marking modest gains of 1% within the last 24 hours after probing the $75,000 support level on Wednesday. The key level to watch for the cryptocurrency is currently around $80,000 — a level that has been elusive for BTC since early February. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin was trading at $75,900 on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve’s latest rate decision sent a chill through crypto markets, capping three straight days of withdrawals from US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds that together erased more than $490 million. Related Reading: Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve Could Be Near As White House Signals Major Update Fidelity And BlackRock Lead The Exodus Fidelity’s FBTC took the heaviest hit, shedding $191 million over the period. BlackRock’s IBIT — the largest spot Bitcoin ETF by assets under management — wasn’t far behind, with close to $167 million flowing out. Ark Invest’s ARKB recorded another $73.3 million in withdrawals. The selling was spread across the week: Monday saw the worst single-day figure at $263 million, followed by $89.7 million on Tuesday, and $137.6 million on Wednesday — the day the Fed announced its decision. The outflows came right on the heels of a strong stretch. According to reports, Bitcoin ETFs had pulled in steady money for nine consecutive days before the streak snapped, with total inflows during that run reaching a little over $2 billion. Last week alone brought in almost $824 million. The reversal was sharp. Fed Holds Firm, Markets Respond The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% for the third meeting in a row. Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave no hint of cuts ahead. No softer tone on inflation. No signal of easier financial conditions on the horizon. That message landed hard on risk assets, and Bitcoin felt it quickly. At the same time, rising tensions between the US and Iran added to the unease. Reports indicate that US President Donald Trump warned the Strait of Hormuz could be blocked if Iran does not stand down. Global markets were already on edge, and that kind of geopolitical pressure tends to push investors toward the exits. Meanwhile, fear has returned to the crypto market, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index falling back into the “Fear” zone as investors grow cautious amid macro uncertainty and continued Bitcoin ETF outflows. What Comes Next For Bitcoin Bitcoin had bounced back from a low near $74,000 earlier in the month, briefly pushing toward $80,000 before this week’s pullback. With ETF outflows continuing, that $75,000 level is again in focus as a potential support test. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run Brewing: ATH In Sight By Late 2026: Analyst Data shows Bitcoin dropped about 3% following the Fed’s announcement. Some traders still expect a recovery toward the $85,000–$88,000 range in May, though that outlook depends heavily on whether macro conditions hold steady. For now, the momentum that built over nine days of inflows has stalled. The question is whether it restarts — or fades further. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
Morgan Stanley’s Amy Oldenburg said a future move by major banks to put Bitcoin on their balance sheets is “not totally out of the question,” pointing to regulatory progress while warning that capital rules and global supervisory alignment still matter. Speaking during a Bitcoin 2026 conference panel, Oldenburg was asked what it would take for a bank like Morgan Stanley, or another regulated financial institution, to make the leap from offering Bitcoin exposure to actually holding Bitcoin as a treasury asset. “Bitcoin on the balance sheet,” she said, pausing on the premise. “You know, I think if we continue to see the progress that we’ve made over the last 16 months or so in regulatory, that that’s something that you may see going forward. It’s not totally out of the question.” Morgan Stanley And Bitcoin? That answer is notable less because it signals an imminent move and more because it frames the idea as procedurally possible. For years, the bank balance sheet question has sat on the far end of institutional Bitcoin adoption: beyond ETFs, beyond custody, beyond client access, and into the realm of prudential capital, examiner expectations, accounting, liquidity planning and board-level risk appetite. Oldenburg’s caveat was that the constraint is not a single rule. She pointed first to SAB 121, the SEC accounting guidance that had made it more difficult for banks to custody crypto assets at scale before its rollback changed part of the equation. But she immediately widened the lens. Related Reading: Bitcoin To $125,000: Arthur Hayes Says The Setup Is Turning Bullish “I think the other thing too is we were talking about SAB 121 rolling back on the capital treatment, but it’s not just that that holds us back,” she said. “It’s Fed guidance, it’s Basel guidance. When you’re a large G-sub bank, it’s not just one agency that you report to.” That is the core of the issue for a firm like Morgan Stanley. A global systemically important bank does not evaluate Bitcoin only through a market-risk lens. It has to satisfy multiple regulators, capital frameworks and jurisdictional expectations at once. Oldenburg said large banks have “many oversight groups” to attend to and need “a little bit more alignment across the board with some of those agencies.” The Backdrop The Basel point is especially important. The Basel Committee’s cryptoasset standard places the most conservative treatment on unbacked crypto assets such as Bitcoin, and industry advocates have argued that the 1,250% risk-weight treatment effectively makes direct bank balance-sheet exposure uneconomic. The Basel Committee said in February 2026 that it had expedited a targeted review of its prudential standard for banks’ cryptoasset exposures, with an update expected later in the year. The Bitcoin Policy Institute has been trying to push that debate into the US implementation process. In March, the group said it planned to review and comment on the Federal Reserve’s coming Basel proposal, arguing that the current treatment discourages banks from holding or servicing Bitcoin because of the punitive risk weight. Related Reading: Analyst Reveals Bitcoin Big Picture, Predicts 50% Crash By EOY The US side has also been moving, though not in a straight line toward bank-owned Bitcoin. In April 2025, the Federal Reserve withdrew earlier guidance tied to banks’ crypto-asset and dollar-token activities, saying the move would keep expectations aligned with evolving risks and support innovation in the banking system. The FDIC and OCC also moved away from prior-approval style frameworks for permissible crypto activity, while maintaining that banks still need sound risk management. More recently, US banking agencies clarified that eligible tokenized securities should generally receive the same capital treatment as their non-tokenized equivalents, describing the capital rule as technology neutral. That clarification does not solve Bitcoin’s balance-sheet treatment, because Bitcoin is not a tokenized version of a traditional security. But it does show regulators separating blockchain rails from asset risk, rather than treating every digital-asset exposure as the same category. That distinction helps explain Oldenburg’s answer. The path for a bank to hold Bitcoin is not simply “regulators become more pro-crypto.” The first point is Basel: if Bitcoin remains subject to the most punitive capital treatment, a G-SIB has little economic incentive to warehouse it as a treasury asset, even if client demand is clear. The second point is Federal Reserve supervision: even after recent rollbacks, large banks still need a coherent examiner framework that tells them how Bitcoin exposure will be judged across safety and soundness, liquidity, operational risk and capital planning. At press time, BTC traded at $1.3716. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
A crypto analyst is sounding the alarm about Bitcoin (BTC), warning investors to sell their coins before the next price crash. According to the market expert, Bitcoin could be preparing for another major correction, but this time, it’s in the $40,000 range. Contrary to the widespread belief that Bitcoin has entered a new bull market, this analyst argues that the bear market is far from over and that it will end only after BTC hits its final cycle bottom. Analyst Warns Investors To Sell Bitcoin Now Orbion, a crypto market, has warned members of the Bitcoin community to consider exiting their positions immediately, predicting another major price crash ahead. He pointed to Bitcoin’s recent rally above $79,000, describing it as a bull trap that briefly attracted buyers before the price reversed back to previous lows as selling pressure increased. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Should Be Wary Of This Level Or Investors Risk Getting Trapped According to Orbion, the move to $79,000 marked the final bull trap of its bear market cycle. He argued that there is no more meaningful demand left at the top, suggesting that the Bitcoin price will likely continue struggling to sustain any further upside momentum from current levels. Against this backdrop, the analyst is urging investors and holders to sell their coins to avoid losses. He believes that Bitcoin is now forming its final bear market bottom, which could trigger a drop toward the $40,000 region. His accompanying chart clearly displays this bearish setup, showing Bitcoin’s weakening momentum despite its recent rebounds to higher levels. The chart shows that since the flagship cryptocurrency reached an all-time high above $125,000 in October 2025, its price has been in a prolonged downtrend. It has also traded within a narrow descending channel for months, constantly making lower highs and lower lows. If price action plays out as Orbion says, Bitcoin could hit another lower high below $45,000, representing a more than 40% decline from current price levels above $75,000. The analyst believes a decline in this region is highly likely, marking it as BTC’s final cycle bottom. Analyst Sees No Chance Of BTC Hitting $100,000 This Year Sharing similar bearish sentiments, market analyst KillaXBT has boldly claimed that Bitcoin has “absolutely zero chance” of surpassing or even reclaiming the $100,000 level this year. He noted that 42% of market participants still hold hopes that Bitcoin can close the year with a bullish green candle. Because of this large scale, the analyst believes the current market sentiment has not yet reached true capitulation. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Could Hit $68,000 Again As a result, the analyst expects the next 90 days to be highly volatile and difficult for traders, likely marked by sharp, unpredictable price swings. He further warned that Bitcoin is more likely to crash toward sub-$60,000 levels than stage a recovery back above $100,000 in the near term. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin’s recent rejection near key resistance has raised fresh concerns about the strength of its ongoing rally. After a steady climb, signs of selling pressure are beginning to emerge, hinting that bullish momentum may be weakening. With price now hovering around critical support zones, the next move could determine whether the uptrend regains traction or starts to lose steam. 2–618 Pattern Triggers: BTC Rejected At $78,000 In a market update, analyst Kamile Uray revealed that the long-anticipated 2-618 pattern for Bitcoin has officially activated. After the price approached the $78,037 mark, significant selling pressure stalled the upward momentum. This reaction at the local peak confirms that the market is currently responding to technical overhead, initiating a corrective phase. Related Reading: Bitcoin Setup Suggests Liquidity Hunt Before Next Directional Move The immediate outlook suggests the current decline could extend down to the $73,762 level, which serves as a critical decision point for the asset. If Bitcoin manages to hold this floor, the possibility of a renewed bullish push remains on the table. Should the price slip below the $73,762 bottom, the next major target is $70,165, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci support of the most recent upward wave. A successful defense of this area would likely spark another upward move. Conversely, if bulls want to reclaim full control, they must achieve a close above $79,555. Such a move would establish the first higher high on the 4-hour chart relative to the recent downturn, signaling a continuation of the macro uptrend toward the $98,000 and $107,000–$109,000 range. In the event of a more severe retracement, secondary supports are identified at $65,666, $63,823, $62,433, and $60,000. The stakes are particularly high at this lower limit; a daily close below $60,000 would be a highly bearish signal, potentially marking the beginning of a more substantial market decline. Key Levels In Focus: Mapping Bitcoin’s Critical Zones Highlighting the key levels marked on the chart, Daan Crypto Trades emphasized that the low $80,000 region remains a pivotal zone for bulls in the short to mid-term. He also noted that the $72,000 level, which previously acted as resistance for over two months, has now flipped into a critical support zone. Related Reading: Why Every Bitcoin Macro Triangle Breakdown Has Led To A Retracement Phase Maintaining price above this level would reinforce bullish control and suggest that the market is building a solid base for further upside, providing the foundation needed for another leg higher. A breakdown below $72,000, however, would likely indicate that the momentum from the recent bounce is fading, opening the door for more sideways market structure. Although Bitcoin has posted a steady 20% gain throughout April, the price action may not last long, as volatility is expected to emerge at any point. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin has climbed roughly 30% from its February lows and bulls have been feeling good about it for weeks. The problem, according to one analyst who has held the same macro thesis unchanged for months, is that this is exactly how it felt before the last two major drops. The bigger picture has not changed. …
The latest holder data from Santiment shows that crypto adoption is still increasing, even as prices are without a clear bullish trend across the market. Bitcoin is approaching a major wallet milestone, XRP has continued to grow its user base, and Ethereum is dominating the field by a wide margin. Numbers Reveal A Surge In Adoption New figures from on-chain analytics platform Santiment show that cryptocurrencies are witnessing intense adoption across the board. This data is particularly gotten from the holder count from Santiment, which looks at the number of addresses with non-empty balances. Of the bunch, Bitcoin, XRP, and Ethereum are posting numbers that are noteworthy. Related Reading: Here’s Why The Bitcoin And Ethereum Prices Have Been Rising And Falling Sharply Bitcoin’s holder count is now one of the clearest signs of adoption across the crypto industry. Santiment’s latest data shows Bitcoin is currently at about 59.08 million non-empty wallets, bringing the network close to the 60 million mark. This means Bitcoin has built one of the largest ownership bases in crypto despite several months of difficult price action and correction from its 2025 price peak. The timing of Bitcoin’s wallet growth is important because it is coming at the same time institutional demand is starting to improve again. Data from SoSoValue shows that Spot Bitcoin ETF flows witnessed positive flows in March and April, after four straight months of net outflows from late November 2025 through February 2026 that totaled about $4 billion. Santiment’s data places XRP’s non-empty wallet count at 7.8 million. That figure, when viewed in isolation, is somewhat modest against Bitcoin’s tally. However, when viewed in context, it reflects a network that has increased in adoption with unusual consistency over the past 18 months since it started trading in the US again. This growth is also notable because XRP has not had the kind of price performance that would usually be expected to accompany a rising holder base. A Broader Market In Expansion The Santiment snapshot is not limited to only Bitcoin and XRP, and it places the cryptocurrencies in context compared to the rest of the market. According to Santiment, Ethereum is nearing 190 million non-empty wallets for the first time in its history, putting it far ahead of every other large-cap crypto asset tracked in the dataset. Ethereum’s 189.5 million non-empty wallets is itself a headline number, one that places it at 3.2 times Bitcoin’s holder count. Related Reading: Analyst Says High XRP Price Targets Are Dangerous, Here’s Why XRP’s 7.8 million non-empty wallets place it below Dogecoin’s 8.25 million and Tether’s 13.61 million on Ethereum, but above USDC’s 6.76 million, Cardano’s 4.63 million, and Chainlink’s 870,720 non-empty wallets. These holder numbers show how far crypto adoption has grown. Research estimates that about 559 million people now own cryptocurrency in 2026, representing a 9.9% global adoption rate, with further growth expected when clearer regulations take shape in the US and other major jurisdictions. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
When Gary Gensler left the US Securities and Exchange Commission in January 2025, Bitcoin was trending higher, and many expected a more favorable regulatory backdrop to drive further upside. Instead, BTC has fallen sharply to a zone that complicates a once-popular narrative that regulation, or Gensler specifically, was the primary force holding the market back. Bitcoin’s Price May Be Saying More About Markets Than Regulators The market reaction to regulatory change hasn’t played out the way many expected. Analyst Benjamin Cowen has mentioned on X that when Gary Gensler stepped down from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in January 2025, Bitcoin was trading around $109,000. Today, it sits closer to $75,000. Related Reading: Crypto Markets Rattle As Bitcoin Sinks Under $77K Following Oil Spike Cowen argues that one major reason the crypto markets have suffered is that market participants started to lose faith in the industry itself. After Gensler left, it essentially just opened the floodgates to the grift age of crypto. During the period, the influencers and politicians were launching memecoins and rug-pulling their followers every day, without fear of any repercussions. This led to a massive misallocation of capital, with liquidity flowing into speculative assets instead of strengthening the broader ecosystem. While people celebrated Gensler’s exit, it marked a turning point in the industry, with BTC only marginally going higher before entering a bear market. According to Cowen, now that some people are celebrating Jerome Powell’s removal as chair of the Federal Reserve, it is a sign that history could repeat itself. They celebrated it in the short term, which will mark a turning point in credibility for the Fed in a few years. If the Fed becomes another cabinet within the executive branch, it may lead to a lack of trust in the institution. In a few years, participants will realize that markets were better off with Powell than without him. Liquidity Sweeps Into FOMC Are Becoming A Familiar Setup Bitcoin has shown a consistent pattern around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, and it’s not bullish in the short term. A crypto trader known as Max Trades highlighted that following the last seven FOMC meetings, BTC dropped sharply after each decision. Related Reading: Bitcoin Setup Suggests Liquidity Hunt Before Next Directional Move What makes the current setup notable is how closely it mirrors the conditions seen before the March meeting. Back then, price rallied into the event, repeatedly sweeping local highs while building a large pool of liquidity below. That structure marked the local top, followed by a 13% correction that erased most of the prior move. Heading into the current interest rate decision, these factors are in place, with BTC price trading just below a major higher-timeframe resistance level, adding another layer of confluence to the downside scenario. However, if this same scenario plays out similarly, the BTC price could point to the formation of another local top around this event. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Samson Mow, the CEO of Jan3, a BTC-focused tech company, has made a bold call, predicting that the Bitcoin price could eventually explode to $1 million per coin. Mow’s ambitious price forecast adds to the growing list of $1 million Bitcoin price projections by Bitwise and other market experts. The CEO has pointed to supply and demand dynamics as the key factor that could drive this seven-figure price target. Why The Bitcoin Price Could Climb To $1 Million The Bitcoin price is now sitting above $75,000 after a sharp rebound to $79,000, only to quickly reverse most of those gains. Despite its failure to return to its all-time high above $126,000, market experts still maintain strong bullish outlooks for BTC. Notably, Mow’s $1 million price forecast for Bitcoin suggests that the cryptocurrency could surge by over 1,200% or roughly 13x from its current price, marking a staggering gain. Speaking on a podcast, the CEO did not provide a clear timeline for this target. However, he strongly implied that a run to this level is inevitable. Related Reading: Here’s How The Ethereum Vs. Solana Rivalry Is Going He backed his outlook by arguing that Bitcoin could experience a sharp “Omega Candle” that may propel its price toward $1 million. He stated that this move could occur sooner than expected and would likely be driven by a major shift in BTC’s supply and demand dynamics. According to him, the current market appears to be mispricing BTC’s supply, with enough coins still sitting around waiting to be sold. He stated that many people are also being misled into believing that BTC has an infinite supply and that its price will always remain low. However, Mow rejects this view, noting that major Bitcoin treasury companies like Strategy and others are steadily accumulating BTC, which could drive the available supply to extreme lows. Once this happens, the CEO believes that BTC could face a powerful supply shock that could propel its price toward $1 million. Mow also stated that Bitcoin has a habit of moving in directions the market does not expect. He argued that the traditional four-year cycle is dead and suggested that BTC could eventually hit a new ATH sooner than many expect. Despite claims that the market is in a bear market, the CEO believes Bitcoin can continue rising, challenging expectations of a prolonged downturn. Mow Outlines Bull Case For $10 Million BTC Price Another major reason Mow believes BTC could reach $1 million is its potential to evolve into the world’s reserve asset. As demand from institutions rises and more countries adopt the cryptocurrency, Mow expects BTC’s price to continue to increase over time. Related Reading: XRP Price At $25,000? The ‘Divine’ Prediction That Is Setting The Community On Fire He has also projected that the flagship cryptocurrency could eventually surge to $10,000,000 per coin. A massive gain like this would represent a 900% increase from $1 million and an overall gain of more than 13,200% from its current price. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Crypto analyst Kaz has called the local Bitcoin top, stating that the leading crypto has little room to the upside. The analyst also explained why BTC is now likely to drop below the psychological $60,000 level, which would mark a new low for the crypto asset. Bitcoin Top About To Form As Price Eyes Drop Below $60,000 In an X post, Kaz said Bitcoin is very close to a local top, despite market participants predicting a sustained rally to $90,000. He noted that the last local top formed around $97,000, when people were calling for a rally to $108,000, but it did not happen. Instead, BTC was rejected from the daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) and recorded a massive decline. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Could Hit $68,000 Again Kaz stated that the same price action is playing out again, with Bitcoin very close to the local top and a daily FVG in place. The analyst predicted that BTC might be rejected from the daily FVG and form a local top between $80,000 and $82,000. He also mentioned that the final range won’t dump in an instant but would rather be a slow bleed. The analyst further pointed to the first week of May as when the Bitcoin top could form. Commenting on the current price action, he noted that BTC has only swept the highs and has formed equal lows on the lower timeframe, which is very likely to get swept. His accompanying chart showed that BTC could drop as low as $56,000 on the next move lower. Meanwhile, Kaz revealed that he will be adding to his short if BTC sweeps the $80,000 range. BTC No Longer In A Bear Flag In an X post, crypto analyst Colin stated that Bitcoin remains in the yellow channel, with $81,000 as resistance at the upper boundary. The analyst noted that a break above this upper boundary would be bullish while a break below the lower boundary at $72,000 would be bearish. He added that if BTC continues to gradually climb within the channel, it will bump into overhead resistance between $80,000 and $86,000. Related Reading: Analyst Reveals Bitcoin Big Picture, Predicts 50% Crash By EOY Colin warned that this is where Bitcoin will struggle to sustain its upward momentum and will likely find a local top, completing the relief rally. He explained that this range is highly likely to be a rejection point for BTC, as there is a convergence of overhead resistance levels, the 200-day moving average (MA), and the upper range of the channel. His accompanying chart showed that BTC could drop to around $66,000 when this relief rally is over. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $75,600, down over 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Robinhood's stock closed down 13.2% after the company reported weaker first-quarter earnings the previous day.
The conversation around Bitcoin at the Bitcoin 2026 in Las Vegas took a decisive turn this week after Eric Trump confirmed that the U.S. government is sitting on a massive stash of Bitcoin, and isn’t planning to sell. “The US government holds 300,000 BTC and will not sell it,” Trump said during a panel, reinforcing …
Fidelity Digital Assets says Bitcoin’s latest drawdown has pushed the market into a zone that has historically aligned with accumulation phases, even as its momentum signal remains negative and broader crypto risk appetite stays narrow. In its Signals Report Q2 2026, Fidelity’s research team described a market still working through a corrective phase rather than entering a broad-based expansion. Bitcoin remains the dominant source of unrealized profitability across the digital asset complex, while other major assets continue to stabilize after a sharp reset in Q1. Fidelity Says Bitcoin Looks Undervalued The report’s clearest Bitcoin price signal comes from the asset’s “Yardstick,” a valuation framework that compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to hash rate. Fidelity rated the metric positive, noting that falling prices and a pullback in hash rate have pushed the indicator into what it calls an “undervalued” zone. Related Reading: Bitcoin $90,000 Predictions Surge Across Social Media—Contrarian Signal? “Historically, this undervalued zone has aligned with accumulation phases and relative bottoms,” the report stated. According to Fidelity, Bitcoin spent 71 of the previous 91 days, or 78% of the period, below negative one standard deviation of the Yardstick’s mean. The condition first appeared in October 2025 and was amplified by two cold-weather events in the United States that temporarily curtailed mining activity as operators reduced power usage to support local grid stability. That nuance matters. Fidelity does not frame the hash-rate decline purely as a sign of deteriorating miner confidence. The report said some analysts have linked the decline to miners shifting toward AI workloads, but argued the move could also reflect demand-response programs, especially in regions such as Texas where miners routinely power down during peak grid demand. The price backdrop remains difficult. Fidelity’s momentum signal for Bitcoin turned negative on October 18, 2025, when BTC traded near $107,000. Since then, Bitcoin has fallen roughly 36%, with most of Q1 2026 spent in a defined range between $62,500 and $76,022. The firm said that pattern is more consistent with consolidation than a renewed trend. “This signal is not designed to identify precise tops or bottoms,” Fidelity wrote, adding that the current reading points to stabilization rather than fresh upside momentum. Bitcoin’s NUPL score also reflects a cautious market. Fidelity said BTC’s net unrealized profit/loss stood at 0.21 at the end of Q1 2026, placing investors in the “Hope-Fear” zone. That reading suggests some holders remain in profit, but the market has not yet established broad conviction that a durable bottom is in place. The historical setup is more constructive. Fidelity found that prior periods when Bitcoin’s NUPL hovered around 0.21, plus or minus 0.01, coincided with a median one-year return of 63% and a three-year compound annual growth rate of 74%. The firm emphasized, however, that these historical relationships may weaken or fail to persist, particularly when macro conditions dominate digital asset flows. Related Reading: Bitcoin To $125,000: Arthur Hayes Says The Setup Is Turning Bullish Separately, Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer pointed to a more tactical Bitcoin setup, sharing a chart that shows BTC testing the upper boundary of what he described as a potential bear flag. The chart places Bitcoin near $79,486 after its rebound from the February low around $60,033, with momentum indicators moving back into overbought territory. Timmer framed the current setup as an important technical test. “Technical Analysis 101 states that when bear market rallies get overbought, it’s usually the kiss of death and time to sell,” he wrote. “However, during bull markets overbought momentum means that the market is strong and likely to stay strong.” His conclusion sharpened the price question raised by Fidelity’s broader report: whether Bitcoin is still trapped in a corrective structure or beginning to transition into a new bull phase. “If Bitcoin cannot be pulled down by this current combination of overbought momentum and trendline resistance, then this is an emerging bull market and not a bear market rally,” Timmer said, adding that this has been his “hunch all along” and “may be about to get confirmed.” At press time, BTC traded at $76,036. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Crypto markets are under pressure today as the Federal Reserve reinforces a “no rush to cut” stance, tightening expectations around liquidity. Despite holding rates steady, the central bank pointed to prolonged restrictive conditions, which historically weighs on high-risk assets like crypto. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP have all moved lower as liquidity expectations tightened and risk …
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, but the decision itself was almost beside the point. What rattled crypto markets was a single phrase buried in the policy statement that traders and analysts pulled apart within minutes of its release. Gone was the familiar characterisation of inflation as “somewhat elevated.” In its place, the Fed …
Social media data shows trader calls for $90,000+ Bitcoin prices have registered a spike recently, a potential sign of FOMO brewing in the market. Bitcoin Has Seen An Uptick In Greedy Social Media Calls In a new post on X, analytics firm Santiment has talked about where the social media crowd is expecting Bitcoin to go next. The indicator of relevance here is the “Social Volume,” which measures the total number of posts/messages/threads containing unique mentions of a given term or topic that currently exist on the major social media platforms. Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Returning To Risk-On? Flow Pulse Surges 136% From March Lows As an initial filter, Santiment separated the social volume for Bitcoin-associated terms. Then, it further filtered it for terms related to price predictions. For bearish calls, the analytics firm has chosen the sub $50,000 to $59,000 price range, while for the bullish ones, it has selected the $90,000 to $99,000 range. Below is the chart shared by Santiment that shows how the Social Volumes related to the two types of calls have changed over the past month. As is visible in the graph, the Bitcoin Social Volume related to the sub-$60,000 prices shot up back at the start of April. This means that social media users were expecting a bearish outcome for the cryptocurrency. What followed this market pessimism was a recovery rally that took BTC to a peak above $79,000, instead of the outcome that the crowd was expecting. This is a pattern that has actually been observed time and again; digital asset markets tend to move against the expectations of the majority. From the chart, it’s visible that social media sentiment around Bitcoin has flipped recently, with the calls related to the $90,000+ levels overtaking the Social Volume of the sub-$60,000 levels. This optimism has interestingly maintained despite the pullback that BTC has seen since its high. Considering the past pattern, the high Social Volume of the $90,000+ terms may be not be a positive sign for the cryptocurrency. “Price predictions of a coin are a great way to see what the OPPOSITE likely path for prices will look like,” noted the analytics firm. Related Reading: Chainlink Exchange Outflows Hit 970,430 LINK, Largest Of 2026 The current social media optimism around Bitcoin is also visible from the perspective of another indicator known as the Positive/Negative Sentiment. As the below chart shows, this metric has spiked to a value of 1.38, which implies that there are 1.38 bullish comments related to BTC for every bearish post. Solana is observing bullish sentiment of an even higher intensity, with positive comments outpacing negative ones by nearly 3:1. BTC Price Bitcoin has returned to the $76,700 mark following its retrace. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price started a fresh decline below the $76,500 zone. BTC is consolidating and might struggle to stay above the $75,000 support. Bitcoin failed to stay above $76,500 and extended losses. The price is trading below $76,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $77,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might extend losses if it stays below the $76,500 and $77,200 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Again Bitcoin price failed to stay above the $76,500 support zone. BTC remained in a bearish zone and extended losses below the $76,000 level. There was a move below the $75,500 level. The price even dipped below $75,000. A low was formed at $74,940 and the price is now consolidating losses. There was a minor increase above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $77,888 swing high to the $74,940 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $76,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $75,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $76,400 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $77,888 swing high to the $74,940 low. The first key resistance is near the $77,200 level. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $77,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. A close above the $77,200 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $77,650 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $78,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $78,500. Downside Extension In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $77,200 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $75,500 level. The first major support is near the $75,250 level. The next support is now near the $75,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $74,200 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $73,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $75,500, followed by $75,000. Major Resistance Levels – $76,400 and $77,200.
The Bitcoin price is currently sitting on a key support trendline that could determine its next major move. According to a crypto analyst, a breakout from this level could lead to two possible scenarios. On the bullish side, the cryptocurrency could extend its recent price recovery and push higher. However, in a bearish scenario, the analyst predicts a steep decline, with price possibly revisiting $68,000. Given the significance of this trendline, analysts and traders are closely watching to see how Bitcoin will react here. Bitcoin Price Sits At Critical Make Or Break Trendline Crypto market analyst Ardi has presented another compelling Bitcoin price analysis on X. However, this time, he has outlined two potential price scenarios for the flagship cryptocurrency. While others believe that Bitcoin may have entered bullish territory following its surge above $79,000, Ardi still maintains a cautious stance even as he projects possible bullish scenarios. Related Reading: Bitcoin Has Entered A Bull Market And Will Continue To Rise; Analyst Shares Why In his post, Ardi noted that the Bitcoin price is currently sitting at a critical technical area where two key support levels are converging. He said that these supports include an established ascending trendline pointing toward $79,418 and a liquidity zone around the $77,300 level. According to him, this ascending trendline has guided Bitcoin’s price action since it reached $65,000 in early April. The chart also clearly shows that every major swing high within BTC’s latest recovery has respected this trendline, making it a consistently tested support area throughout the upward move. As a result, Ardi emphasized that this trendline has become a critical zone for the market to watch, especially as Bitcoin is now approaching a decisive point where price could either break above or below the support. He also noted that every rally since the $65,000 level was gained from key liquidity zones found on this ascending trendline. Because of this, he believes that as long as the trendline holds, Bitcoin’s broader bullish structure will remain intact. Moreover, if the cryptocurrency can break above the trendline at $79,410, it could extend its move higher. Analyst Predicts Possible Price Flush To $68,000 For his bearish outlook, Ardi explained that if Bitcoin loses the $77,300 support level, it could mark the first clear breakdown toward a decline to lower levels. He noted that this would invalidate BTC’s bullish structure and signal a major shift in momentum. Related Reading: Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Is Going To $200,000, Reveals When To Buy From there, he expects BTC’s price to move into deeper liquidity pockets below current levels. He pointed to a potential healthy retest around $76,000, followed by a pullback near $73,600 if selling pressure persists. If Bitcoin breaks this area, he believes that the cryptocurrency could turn bearish, potentially driving the price back toward $68,000. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin is holding above $76,000 as the market tests resistance, and bulls attempt to build the momentum needed for the next leg higher. The price is constructive. The order book above it is not cooperating. Data from CoinGlass shows that the sell wall between $80,500 and $82,000 has been in place for over 24 hours. The orders are large, evenly spaced at approximately $3.3 million intervals, and they have not moved. In order book analysis, that combination — scale, spacing, and persistence — is the fingerprint of deliberate placement rather than coincidental accumulation. Spoofs disappear within minutes. This wall has survived a full trading day and is still there. Related Reading: Crypto Traders Just Moved $100 Billion In Gold Volume: Find Out What Is Driving The Rush The picture below shows that the current price adds a layer of complexity to the straightforward bearish reading of the supply overhead. Bids are stacking meaningfully around $76,800 and throughout the $75,000 to $76,000 zone — a demand cluster building beneath Bitcoin, at the same time, a supply cluster is holding firm above it. The market is being compressed from both directions simultaneously. That compression is the setup that defines the current moment. A wall of persistent selling above. A cushion of building demand below. Bitcoin caught between them, holding $76,000, with the next decisive move depending entirely on which side of the order book proves stronger when the pressure resolves. The Wall Has Not Moved. That Is the Point The CoinGlass analysis cuts through the most common objection to reading persistent order book levels as meaningful signals. Individual orders can be pulled, replaced, or refreshed at any moment — that is the nature of a dynamic order book, and it means no single order should be treated as a commitment. That is not what makes the current setup significant. What makes it significant is the zone itself. The $80,500 to $82,000 range has remained consistently occupied by large, evenly spaced sell orders for over 24 hours — not because the same orders have been sitting untouched, but because whatever orders were removed have been replaced by orders of similar size in similar positions. The zone is being actively maintained. Someone, or multiple coordinated participants, is ensuring that a visible supply continues to exist in this specific area, regardless of what happens to the individual orders within it. That distinction matters enormously for how the current resistance should be interpreted. A cluster of orders that appears once and disappears is noise — it could be a spoof, a momentary imbalance, or a participant who changed their mind. A zone that remains consistently populated over an extended period is a statement. It reflects participants who want that supply to be visible, who want the market to know that selling interest exists at those levels, and who are willing to maintain that appearance through a full trading day and beyond. The question the data cannot answer — and the one the article must address — is why. Control, defense, pressure, or a test of real demand. The wall is real. The motivation behind it is what determines how the next move resolves. Related Reading: Binance Ethereum Supply Hits 2020 Levels While Staking Locks A Third: Repricing Ahead? Bitcoin Holds Above Reclaimed Range as Resistance Approaches Bitcoin is trading near $77,500 on the daily chart, maintaining strength after reclaiming the $74,000–$75,000 range that previously acted as resistance. That zone now functions as support, and the structure since early April shows a clear shift: higher highs and higher lows have replaced the choppy, directionless behavior seen through March. The recovery from the February capitulation near $62,000 was aggressive, supported by a strong volume spike that marked a clear exhaustion of sellers. Since then, volume has normalized, but price has continued to grind higher — a constructive sign that demand remains present even without panic-driven flows. Related Reading: XRP’s Recovery Is Real, But The Risk Appetite Behind It Is Still Broken – Analyst Technically, Bitcoin is now pressing into the $78,000–$80,000 region, where previous breakdowns occurred and where the 100-day moving average is beginning to flatten overhead. The 200-day moving average sits lower, around the reclaimed range, reinforcing the $74,000 area as a key structural support. Momentum is positive but slowing. The recent candles show smaller bodies and wicks on both sides, indicating hesitation as the price approaches resistance. If Bitcoin consolidates above $74,000, the structure supports a breakout attempt toward $82,000. Losing that level would weaken the trend and risk a move back into the prior range. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) failed again to push back above the $80,000 level this week, a price point that has remained stubbornly resistant since early February. After struggling through the latest attempt to break higher, BTC retraced to around $75,400 on Wednesday. Bloomberg attributes part of this stagnation to a less visible but powerful force: positioning in the options market. According to the report, a concentrated set of call options has built up around the $80,000 strike on Deribit. Why Bitcoin Keeps Stalling Near $80,000 As Andy Baehr, managing director of asset management at GSR, explained in the report, many speculators are choosing to sell calls at $80,000 because it is viewed as a “safe” area to monetize premiums. The other side of those trades is where the pressure begins. Dealers who buy the calls often hedge by selling Bitcoin, creating what Baehr described as an “electric fence” effect—an arrangement that makes it harder for BTC to surge through the strike level without an unusual catalyst. That helps explain why Bitcoin has still struggled to clear $80,000. Related Reading: Galaxy Digital Posts $200M Quarterly Loss—Did Hyperliquid Help Avoid New Crisis? The options picture is reinforced by activity levels in broader markets. The report also points to on-chain data and platform metrics suggesting that the group (retail) that drove the earlier rally has largely stepped back. Instead, many are said to be nursing losses or waiting for clearer signals. At the same time, a persistently bearish Bitcoin futures market and slowing spot demand have encouraged some traders to underwrite more call options, aiming to capture premium income on the expectation that Bitcoin will not meaningfully trade above the $80,000 strike over the coming months. May Expiries, Rolling Calls, And Stock-Driven Volatility Deribit’s $80,000 Bitcoin calls appear especially concentrated in the late May and June expiries. According to market data provider Kaiko, out of roughly $1.5 billion in notional call open interest, contracts totaling $160 million are set to expire on May 1, with an additional $566 million expiring on May 29. Those clustering dates can matter because they concentrate both hedging activity and speculative behavior into specific time windows. Thomas Erdösi, head of product at CF Benchmarks, said the pattern suggests persistent call selling and evidence of “systematic rolling.” In other words, rather than allowing positions to roll off naturally, market participants may keep moving risk forward in a way that maintains pressure near the strike. Erdösi also cautioned that options positioning alone does not tell the whole story, noting there are signs of profit-taking into the $80,000 area for Bitcoin as well. Related Reading: XRP Price Target At $18,000: Expert Says—Only One Condition Must Be Met Finally, the report flags that volatility outside crypto may spill into Bitcoin’s price action. With equities showing sharper movement in recent sessions, BTC has tended to follow along. Bohan Jiang, senior derivatives trader at FalconX, suggested that this could contribute to a more stabilizing pattern around $80,000. In his view, with stocks “chopping around” recently, Bitcoin’s behavior has mirrored that uncertainty—helping explain why attempts to break through the level keep stalling. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s price structure is starting to look less like a clean recovery to $80,000 and more like a battleground between $76,000 and $78,000, where every rally is being tested, and every dip is being watched. A new technical outlook from a crypto analyst known as Guru is now adding an interesting angle to that uncertainty, outlining a path where Bitcoin could first lure in late buyers before unwinding into a 50% decline before the end of the year. Next Bitcoin Move Bitcoin’s recent price action in April has led to bullish momentum slowly creeping in, and many analysts are now looking at bullish price targets at the end of the year. However, in a post shared on the social media platform X, crypto analyst Guru laid out a revised multi-stage roadmap for Bitcoin that culminates in a crash to as low as $30,000 by year-end, a drawdown of as much as 61% from current levels. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Should Be Wary Of This Level Or Investors Risk Getting Trapped The chart accompanying the post is a weekly timeframe chart that projects the full arc of the move: a compression zone, a rally, and then a terminal decline that would take Bitcoin to price levels last seen in late 2023. According to the weekly chart, Bitcoin is currently transitioning into a high-timeframe redistribution phase. Guru’s original prediction anticipated a simpler two-act sequence involving a flush to $55,000 followed by a direct rally to $80,000. That scenario has now been superseded, though the analyst is clear that the broader conclusion has not changed. The updated plan introduces a higher-timeframe (HTF) consolidation and redistribution phase first, which is likely to trap traders on both sides. The prediction based on this updated plan is that Bitcoin will reverse soon to find a local bottom in the $62,000-$65,000 zone before staging a rally to $85,000. It is that rally, Guru argues, that is the real danger. “The 85k pump will be the ultimate exit liquidity trap,” the analyst wrote. A Year-End Slide To $30,000 The most interesting part of the prediction is what is expected to happen once Bitcoin undergoes the projected rally to $85,000. Once the liquidity above is taken and the market exhausts buying pressure, the analyst anticipates a move lower, targeting a broad range between $50,000 on the higher end and $30,000 on the lower end before the end of the year. Related Reading: Bitcoin To $140,000 And XRP To $7? Here’s When It Will Happen Despite the severity of the forecast, Guru has been explicit about what would invalidate it. A weekly close above $98,000 would render the entire bearish scenario void. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $77,000, which means a drop to $50,000 would represent a decline of roughly 35%, while a deeper slide to $30,000 would translate to an approximate 61% loss from current levels. On the other hand, a move to the analyst’s invalidation level at $98,000 would require a rally of about 27%. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com