According to a crypto analyst, the Bitcoin price remains firmly in a bear trend and could be preparing for another major crash to new lows. Using a wave structure, the expert mapped out BTC’s price action during this bearish phase, outlining how he sees the current market developing and where he believes the next downside move could lead. Contrary to other analysts’ predictions, the analyst believes that BTC has not yet reached its cycle bottom and may first see a final surge before plunging below $40,000. Related Reading: Stablecoins Go Institutional As Morgan Stanley Rolls Out New Portfolio Bitcoin Price Could Rebound To $80,000 Before A Final Crash Market analyst Crypto Bullet has presented a bearish BTC forecast on X, suggesting that the flagship cryptocurrency may still have more declines ahead before the current bear market ends. In his analysis, he described BTC’s market structure as a “Double ZigZag (WXY)” formation, using it to track the cryptocurrency’s price action from its October 2025 peak and project where the next major decline could unfold. One reason Crypto Bullet views BTC’s bear market through this WXY structure is because of how the cryptocurrency has traded in recent months. He noted that Bitcoin has spent far more time consolidating between $62,000 and $78,000 than it did in the $84,000 to $97,000 range, where it traded from November 2025 to January 2026. To him, that prolonged sideways movement reflects a broader bearish structure still playing out. Based on that setup, Crypto Bullet believes that BTC’s recent rebound above $78,000 does not mean its bear market has ended but could instead be part of a larger corrective move. He expects the cryptocurrency to make one final push higher toward $85,000, with this level as the next major resistance above his ABC target of $82,500, as highlighted on his chart. Crypto Bullet has tied this outlook to his WXY wave structure. According to him, Bitcoin completed wave W after peaking above $126,000 in October 2025 and plunging to $60,000 in February 2026. He noted that wave X also began after BTC reached $60,000 and projected it could end once the cryptocurrency rallies above $80,000. If that scenario plays out, Crypto Bullet expects wave Y as the final leg low, which is where he believes BTC could eventually find a bottom. In terms of timing, the analyst believes that BTC still has five months left before its bear market ends, which closely aligns with timelines from past bear cycles. Analyst Marks BTC Bottom Target At $40,000 Crypto Bullet’s bearish outlook for Bitcoin centers on wave Y, which he believes could bring the most severe downturn of this cycle. According to him, once Bitcoin completes its rebound above $80,000 in wave X, the market could reverse sharply, triggering a rapid price crash toward a final bottom. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Big Players Are Accumulating — Is $80K Just The Start? He marked BTC’s potential bottom target at $40,000, expecting the move to play out between September and October 2026. From the $80,000 level, this would represent a whopping 50% decline, potentially wiping out bullish traders who had interpreted the surge to $80,000 as the start of a new bullish trend. Supporting this outlook, crypto analyst Tony Severino said he believes this could be the most likely scenario for BTC. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin is currently showing a structure that often precedes sharp volatility, with liquidity building above key levels while price consolidates below. This kind of setup typically signals that the market may first move to hunt those liquidity zones before establishing its next clear directional trend. Bitcoin Builds Liquidity Cluster Around $80K Zone Crypto analyst Cryptorphic noted that Bitcoin is once again building a dense cluster of liquidity around the $80,000 level. This area is becoming increasingly important, as leveraged positions continue to stack above current price action, creating a potential target zone for the market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rebounds Strongly — Can Bulls Drive Price Toward $79,000 At present, Bitcoin is trading below this liquidity pocket and moving within a relatively compressed range, reflecting indecision in the market, where price consolidates before a larger expansion. Historically, similar setups have frequently led to liquidity sweeps as the market seeks out areas of unfilled orders. These liquidity zones tend to act like magnets, drawing price toward them as stop-losses and liquidation points accumulate. With so much interest positioned around $80,000, the upside liquidity becomes a natural target if momentum shifts even slightly in favor of buyers. The broader implication is that Bitcoin may first attempt to sweep this $80,000 zone or reach that liquidity level and react from it before any sustained directional move becomes clear. Markets Move In Two Clear Phases According to the analyst Mags, the market moves through two distinct phases. The first being the Bull Phase, Mags highlights that while the primary trend is upward, it is never a straight line to the top. Instead, price action is characterized by multiple pullbacks, often ranging from 20% to 30%, which occur before a cycle peak is reached. These corrections are presented not as threats, but as a normal and necessary part of every cycle‘s journey, resting sentiment, and fueling continuation. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could See Short-Term Pullback Following Price Rebound — Analyst The second stage identified by Mags is the Bear Phase, which is triggered when the underlying market structure finally breaks. This shift leads to a much deeper correction than the standard pullbacks seen during the ascent. During this period, the market undergoes a process of finding a definitive bottom, clearing the stage for the next trend to begin. Ultimately, Mags argues that while the phases transition, the presence of volatility is the one that never changes. The difference between success and failure lies in the ability to recognize your current position within the cycle. As Mags points out, history has consistently rewarded those who can ignore the noise of short-term swings and focus on the long-term game, recognizing that each phase is simply a part of the market’s natural rhythm. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Just as investors were trying to steady the 2026 rate outlook, the oil market handed the Federal Reserve a fresh inflation problem. The Fed meets on April 28 and 29. On April 30, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is scheduled to publish the advance estimate for first quarter GDP alongside March personal income […]
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Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, has declined by 0.9% after a trading week with little to no price action. Although the market’s next direction remains largely uncertain, a recent analysis has provided insight into underlying investor activity that would dictate long-term price direction. Related Reading: Bitcoin Funding Rates Stay Negative Despite Price Gains — What This Means Bitcoin Institutional Flows Reveal Strong Accumulation In a recent post on CryptoQuant’s QuickTake, on-chain analyst GugaOnChain highlights a significant capital rotation underway in the Bitcoin market. The metric relevant to this analysis is the Bitcoin: Global Network Accumulation vs. Distribution by All Cohorts (30D), which tracks whether different wallet-size groups are buying or selling Bitcoin over the past 30 days, thereby revealing which cohorts are driving market supply and demand. The analyst points out that mega-whales (holding more than 10,000 BTC) have recently distributed -25.51K BTC. However, the released supply was quickly absorbed by smart money “sharks” (investors with 100-1,000 BTC), who reportedly acquired 37.92K BTC during the same period. The analyst explains that, together with the +9.57K BTC absorbed by the 1K-10K BTC cohort, there is an effect of institutional price shielding currently on display. Related Reading: Peter Brandt Sees Bitcoin Hitting $300,000-$500,000 By Late 2029 Selling Pressure Remains Contained As Market Structure Strengthens Further supporting this narrative, the Exchange Whale Ratio — a metric that assesses the proportion of large transactions flowing into exchanges — currently stands at 61.89%. Yet, Binance data shows zero Bitcoin inflows over 24 hours from the 100- to 10,000-BTC cohorts, suggesting that large holders are not preparing to sell. Meanwhile, Open Interest, a key indicator of participation and positioning across derivatives markets, has surged by about 10.43%, reaching approximately $25.98 billion. On the other hand, Bitcoin reserves held on exchanges have declined by nearly 1% over the past month. According to the analyst, this translates to a retraction of approximately 2.66 million BTC. This means investors are moving assets out of exchanges, a behavior typically seen ahead of long-term holding. When this decline is combined with neutral miner positioning (MPI at -0.50) and a positive Coinbase Premium Gap around 23.84 (which reflects steady US buying interest), it becomes apparent that sustained accumulation is ongoing, however subtle. If this persists, the accumulated supply could overcome the existing sell pressure to sponsor the next Bitcoin rally. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is $77,353. According to CoinMarketCap data, the world’s leading cryptocurrency is down 1.33% over the last 24 hours. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview
UK authorities have carried out their first coordinated operation against suspected illegal peer-to-peer crypto trading, sending a clear and simple message to the market: once a person turns crypto dealing into a business, the state expects names, checks, records, and accountability. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) said it worked with police and tax officials to […]
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Crypto market sentiment shifted from “extreme pessimism” to “ultra FOMO mode” in just three days — and analysts say that kind of rapid swing is exactly what makes the current Bitcoin moment worth watching closely. Related Reading: Stablecoins Go Institutional As Morgan Stanley Rolls Out New Portfolio Bitcoin Whales Load Up As Price Pushes Higher Data from crypto analytics firm Santiment shows Bitcoin wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have added roughly 41,000 coins since April 10 — a haul worth approximately $3.17 billion. The buying has come as Bitcoin climbed toward $80,000, a price level the asset hasn’t touched since late January. On Wednesday, BTC briefly hit $79,330 before pulling back to around $77,350. ???? The Bitcoin crowd has swung from extreme pessimism (on Monday) to ultra FOMO mode (on Thursday). Just as $BTC looked like it was going to freefall after an $80K rejection and FUD trickled in (a clear buy signal), prices quickly rallied to above $78.7K today. Now that $80K is… pic.twitter.com/AsDSovpA95 — Santiment (@santimentfeed) April 23, 2026 Santiment flagged the accumulation trend on X, saying Bitcoin’s key stakeholders are “accumulating rapidly.” The firm also noted that smaller holders — those with less than 0.1 BTC — picked up about 46 coins over the same stretch, valued at roughly $3.56 million. The gap between those two figures tells a story: the big players are moving in size while retail activity stays comparatively quiet. ???? Bitcoin’s key stakeholders are accumulating rapidly with $BTC currently up to $78.3K and crypto’s top cap up +15% in April. ???? According to our on-chain data: ???????? 10-10K BTC Wallets have collectively accumulated 40,967 more $BTC in the past 2 weeks (+0.3%) ???????? Less Than… pic.twitter.com/ViffTAQg4Q — Santiment (@santimentfeed) April 23, 2026 The Setup Analysts Are Watching According to Santiment, the most encouraging scenario would be one where large holders keep buying while smaller investors start cashing out. Reports from the firm describe that pattern as one of the strongest indicators that a prolonged price rally could be taking shape. Analysts have historically tracked this kind of divergence between whale behavior and retail activity as a potential precursor to sustained price gains. On the institutional side, Andre Dragosch, head of European research at Bitwise, said demand from large professional investors is “clearly accelerating.” His comments, posted on X Friday, line up with a broader trend of institutional money flowing back into Bitcoin after months of uncertainty. GM from Switzerland! US spot bitcoin ETFs have purchased 18,991 $BTC over the past 5 trading days. *checks numbers* That’s 9 x times the new supply in that period. Institutional demand for #bitcoin is clearly accelerating. pic.twitter.com/VtzVyjQAJu — André Dragosch, PhD⚡ (@Andre_Dragosch) April 24, 2026 Fear Still Grips The Wider Market Despite the whale activity and the burst of optimism among Bitcoin holders, the broader crypto market hasn’t caught up. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index — a widely followed measure of overall market sentiment — posted a score of 39 on Friday, placing it squarely in “Fear” territory. That reading suggests most investors are still holding back, even as Bitcoin inches toward a psychologically significant price point. Related Reading: Consistent XRP Buys Could Deliver Outsized Gains By 2030: Finance Expert Santiment says a move above $80,000 would carry weight in pulling more traders back into the market. But the firm also cautioned that the breakout would carry more meaning if it happens after optimism cools slightly. A surge built on peak excitement, reports indicate, tends to be less stable than one that forms more gradually. Bitcoin is up 2% over the past week, based on Coingecko data. Featured image from MetaAI, chart from TradingView
Following its bullish footprint in April, Bitcoin price action slowed over the past week, recording no significant change. Amid this mini consolidation, analysis page XWIN Research Japan reports that traders remain confidently bearish on the digital asset’s position despite recent gains. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Warning: Social Media FOMO Spikes Again High Open Interest, Negative Funding Rates – Bitcoin Suffers From Intense Pessimism Funding rates are periodic payments exchanged between traders in perpetual futures contracts to keep the contract price close to the actual spot price. According to XWIN Research Japan, Bitcoin’s funding rate is largely negative at -0.02, suggesting a dominance of short traders who are paying a premium to maintain their bearish positions. Notably, this development follows Bitcoin’s bullish relief in April, during which the premier cryptocurrency has gained by approximately 15% since the month commenced. Nevertheless, the funding rates suggest that most traders view this gain as temporary, with a greater preference for a sustained bear market. At the same time, Open Interest (OI) in the Bitcoin market is surging. The OI represents the total number of active derivative contracts, such as futures or options, currently open in the market. An increase in Open Interest indicates that more capital is being deployed to open contracts in the perpetual market. However, readings from the funding rates suggest this surge in OI is driven by an increase in short positions/contracts. Both metrics combine to paint a rather pessimistic picture of a market environment in which market participants are highly expectant of a deeper downswing. Related Reading: XRP Signals Massive Breakout: $10 Target In Sight As Momentum Builds Negative Setup Favors Potential Bullish Twist According to analysts at XWIN Research Japan, the current Bitcoin market setup, riddled with a high number of short positions, is precarious. Notably, a price rise would trigger a short squeeze, forcing traders to buy back their holdings at a higher price. Interestingly, historical data provide another context for this market environment: prolonged periods of extreme funding rates have preceded sharp price surges rather than the expected price decline. However, this is no guarantee of a bullish reversal. Rather, the market is still extremely bearish but nearing conditions for a potential sharp rebound. At press time, Bitcoin trades at $77,574, down 0.54% over the last day. Meanwhile, daily trading volume has declined by 21.56% to $32.16 billion. Amid its current consolidation, Bitcoin’s bullish target lies at $80,000. On the other hand, a fall below the $74,000 support zone might confirm the current bearish sentiment. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview
As Bitcoin (BTC) attempts to reclaim a crucial level as support, spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on the flagship cryptocurrency have registered their best performance since the October market crash. Related Reading: Eric Trump Calls Justin Sun’s Lawsuit ‘Ridiculous’ As WLFI Hits New All-Time Low Bitcoin ETFs ‘Back In The High Life’ US spot Bitcoin ETFs extended their positive streak to eight days after pulling in $223.2 million on Thursday, signaling strong demand for the investment products as the crypto market recovers. The BTC-based funds have been consistently seeing positive net flows since April 14, recording $2.09 billion in inflows during this period, according to SoSoValue data. This marks the category’s strongest performance across multiple timeframes since its late September-early October nine-day streak, when the products saw roughly $5.33 billion in inflows. In the weekly and monthly timeframes, Bitcoin ETFs are currently recording their best performance of 2026, tying March’s four-week streak but nearly doubling the monthly inflows, with $2.43 billion in April so far and four more days to go. Market observer Sjuul from AltCryptoGems asserted that sustained institutional demand is building again, highlighting that the products are about to close their second green month of 2026, and the first two-month streak since October 2025. Similarly, Bloomberg Senior ETF analyst Erich Balchunas affirmed that Bitcoin ETF flows are “back in the high life” as every single tracking period turns positive and cumulative net inflows hit $58.33 billion. “Every single rolling period we track is now positive, haven’t seen that in months (IBIT’s $3b is in Top 1% of all ETFs). Still tho, need a couple bil more to get back to breaking new ground in cumulative lifetime flows (62.8b),” he wrote on X. All Eyes On BTC’s Weekly Close Bitcoin ETFs’ performance comes as the flagship cryptocurrency continues to reject from a key resistance area. In a recent analysis, Rekt Capital said that while BTC’s price enjoys upside momentum, the key levels haven’t changed yet. Notably, BTC’s 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), located around $78,000, remains an important resistance level as the cryptocurrency has been unable to reclaim it on the weekly timeframe. “If BTC Weekly Closes above the 21-week EMA, then it would be worth watching for whether the EMA can be reclaimed as support,” the analyst affirmed, adding that level tends to serve as resistance in bear markets. On the contrary, if BTC is unable to reclaim this level as support, it could push BTC’s price into a post-breakout retest of its Double Bottom pattern. Last week, Rekt Capital highlighted that Bitcoin had broken out of a Double Bottom formation, which could lead to a measured move toward the $81,000-$82,500 area. Related Reading: Ethereum Faces ‘Moment Of Truth’ As Price Eyes $2,450 Resistance – Breakout Loading? Now, he has asserted that the “Double Bottom formation top could always become a post-breakout retesting zone in the event of rejection from the EMA.” In addition, he emphasized that BTC remains below the base of the macro triangle formation it broke down from in late January. Historically, Bitcoin has not been able to reclaim a macro triangle during a bear market once the price breaks down. If this trend continues, the analyst warned, then the flagship crypto could see limited additional upside toward the pattern’s base before resuming its correction toward the market bottom. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
A wave of crypto hacks hitting decentralized finance platforms in April has renewed an old argument: should stablecoin companies step in when stolen money passes through their systems? That question is now front and center again after Tether, the world’s largest stablecoin issuer, revealed it froze over $340 million in dollar-pegged tokens at the direct request of US law enforcement officials. Related Reading: Shariah-Compliant Stablecoin PUSD Moves Into MidEast Institutional Arena Community Divided Over Stablecoin Control The freeze targeted two separate wallet addresses. Tether said the funds were linked to unlawful conduct but gave no further detail about what the accounts were suspected of doing or who controlled them. The company coordinates freezes when it finds credible ties to sanctioned entities, criminal networks, or other illegal activity, according to its published policy. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino defended the action in a statement released alongside the announcement. “When credible links to sanctioned entities or criminal networks are identified, we act immediately and decisively,” he said. The company did not respond to further requests for comment. The freeze was carried out in coordination with the Office of Foreign Assets Control, a US Treasury agency responsible for enforcing economic sanctions. That makes this more than a routine compliance move — it signals active cooperation between a major crypto firm and federal authorities at a time when regulatory pressure on the industry continues to mount. Not everyone welcomed the news. Crypto media outlet Truth for The Commoner pushed back sharply. “Your stablecoins are not your stablecoins. They never were,” the outlet posted on social media. The reaction reflects a tension that has existed since centralized stablecoins became widely used — the tokens may sit on a blockchain, but the company behind them holds a master switch. 3/ On April 1, 2026, Drift Protocol was exploited for $280M. The exploiter used CCTP to bridge 232M+ USDC from Solana to Ethereum across 100+ transactions over six consecutive hours. 10+ additional DeFi protocols across the Solana ecosystem were indirectly impacted. Despite the… https://t.co/RLDwKghzjo — ZachXBT (@zachxbt) April 3, 2026 A Debate Rekindled By A $280 Million Hack The announcement comes weeks after one of the month’s most damaging incidents — the Drift Protocol exploit, which drained $280 million from the platform. That attack put Circle, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, under a different kind of scrutiny. Onchain analyst ZachXBT publicly criticized Circle for failing to freeze USDC funds after the attacker routed stolen money through Circle’s own native bridge over six consecutive hours. Related Reading: Consistent XRP Buys Could Deliver Outsized Gains By 2030: Finance Expert “No USDC was frozen,” ZachXBT noted, arguing that centralized issuers have a responsibility to act quickly when hacks are in progress. The criticism drew wide attention across the crypto community and intensified calls for clearer standards around when and how stablecoin issuers should intervene. Featured image from MetaAI, chart from TradingView
Veteran trader Peter Brandt is sketching out a highly conditional long-term path for Bitcoin that points to a potential peak between $300,000 and $500,000 in late 2029, even as he argues the market still has not produced the kind of action that typically marks a durable bottom. In a post on X, Brandt wrote: “Should Bitcoin continue with the most remarkable cyclic patterns of any market in the past 15 years, an investable low is scheduled for Sep/Oct 2026. That low might or might not penetrate the Feb 2026 low. The next high (should patterns continue) will be between $300k and $500k in Sep/Oct 2029.” Thus, Brandt the target to a single condition: that Bitcoin continues to respect the cyclical behavior he says has defined the asset over roughly the last decade and a half. That leaves the near-term setup doing a lot of work. Before any 2029 blow-off scenario comes into view, Brandt is signaling that the current structure still looks incomplete. Why Brandt Is Not Calling A Bitcoin Bottom Yet That skepticism came through more clearly in his reaction to a chart posted by JDK Analysis. Brandt’s reply was blunt: “This does not look like a bottom.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Recovery May Not Arrive Until October, Scaramucci Says JDK’s chart argued that the recent advance has the character of a “Short Re-Accumulation,” but only in a probabilistic sense. The analyst wrote, “As long as bulls fail to show clear strength and follow-through, the current low does not qualify as a strong bottom. This is purely a probabilistic view!” The setup highlighted repeated tests of local highs, fading volume as price pushed higher, and an invalidation level above roughly $80.5K, while suggesting continuation lower remained the more likely path if buyers failed to force a clean break. Brandt also amplified renowned chartist Aksel Kibar, calling him “the most accomplished pure classical chart analyst alive today.” Kibar’s read on the market was less about prediction than process, but the message was similar: technical structures are provisional until price confirms them. Related Reading: Bitcoin Enters Disbelief Phase As Traders Keep Shorting The Rally “Sometimes I get criticized by followers who have a position and want to see updates confirming that position on ‘adjusting’ the boundaries,” Kibar wrote. “Well, as the market offers new information we need to adjust. We can’t be dogmatic about our analysis. What looks like a wedge, can morph into a channel. What looks like a bearish continuation can break above the channel boundary requiring action.” That comment was attached to a BTC chart showing exactly that kind of morphing structure. What had previously looked like a rising wedge was reinterpreted as a more clearly defined channel, with several rejections at the upper boundary. The chart also shows Bitcoin still trading below an ascending resistance line and below the 365-day average near $87,000, with the late-February washout toward $60,000 followed by a rebound into the upper-$70,000 area. Nearby levels around $76,500, $72,000 and the low-$80,000s appeared central to the current battle. At press time, BTC traded at $78,196. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Analytics firm Santiment has pointed out how bullish sentiment among social media users has seen a sharp spike alongside the latest Bitcoin rally. Bitcoin Has Observed A Surge In The Positive/Negative Sentiment According to data from Santiment, the Positive/Negative Sentiment has crossed into the FOMO zone for Bitcoin recently. The “Positive/Negative Sentiment” here refers to an indicator that compares the bullish and bearish sentiment toward a given asset that’s currently present on the major social media platforms. The metric works by putting social media posts/messages/threads containing mentions of the asset through a machine-learning model to separate between positive and negative posts. Then, it counts the number of posts in each category and finds the ratio between them. Related Reading: Dogecoin Keeps Getting Capped At This Parallel Channel Level, Analyst Says When the value of the Positive/Negative Sentiment is greater than 1, it means a bullish sentiment is reflected by the majority of social media posts. On the other hand, the metric being under the threshold implies the dominance of a bearish mentality. Now, here is the chart shared by Santiment that shows the trend in the Positive/Negative Sentiment for Bitcoin over the past month: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Positive/Negative Sentiment witnessed a sharp plunge last weekend as the cryptocurrency’s price pulled back from its high above $78,000. At its lowest, the metric went all the way down into what Santiment defines as the FUD zone. What followed the intense bearish sentiment among social media users was a turnaround for BTC. The asset behaving in the way that goes contrary to the expectations of the majority has actually been a pattern that’s often been observed in the past. Generally, the likelihood of an opposite move goes up the more sure that the crowd becomes. Inside the FUD zone, the traders’ bearish expectation can be strong enough to make bottoms likely. From the chart, it’s visible that Bitcoin’s turnaround has been accompanied by a sentiment swing in the opposite direction. As BTC has approached the $80,000 mark, the Positive/Negative Sentiment has spiked into the FOMO zone. The analytics firm noted: Prices can continue to rally, and a breach above this resistance level would be massive in bringing in new and returning traders. However, it will ideally happen when optimism calms down just slightly. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Catches Shorts Offside—$200M Liquidated As Price Hits $79,000 It now remains to be seen how the cryptocurrency’s price will develop in the near future and whether the current degree of greed on social media will influence its trajectory. BTC Price Bitcoin has observed its rally stall since its brief venture above the $79,000 mark, a potential sign that the contrarian effect of trader sentiment may already be in action. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin may be entering a familiar but often misunderstood stage of the market cycle. Even as price action shows resilience, derivatives positioning tells a different story, with funding rates remaining bearish and suggesting many traders are still positioned defensively or betting against sustained upside. Comparing Current Conditions To Previous Bitcoin Recoveries Bitcoin has now entered a disbelief phase as funding rates stay bearish. Analyst Darkfost has highlighted on X that funding rates have remained negative even as the BTC price continues to move higher. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Catches Shorts Offside—$200M Liquidated As Price Hits $79,000 Meanwhile, this BTC chart offers a different perspective from what is usually observed. It shows the 30-day cumulative evolution of the funding rates on Binance, offering a clearer view of when funding rates entered a sustained negative trend. The indicator currently sits around -4.5%, underscoring how aggressively traders have continued betting against the market in recent months. For comparison, when BTC began emerging from the bear market in late 2022, funding rates on Binance fell even further, reaching nearly -7% on a 30-day sun basis. Whenever such a strong consensus formed, it would help create a bottom and fuel the rally that was beginning to develop. According to Darkfost, despite the market entering a phase of disbelief, traders still prefer to fight the trend rather than follow it. A trader known as Max Traders on X has also noted that Bitcoin funding rates haven’t been this negative in a long while. Historically, such extremes typically emerge when the market crowd is heavily positioned to one side. Despite BTC’s recent strength, many participants are positioning for a reversal, even as price action continues to suggest a strong short bias. However, this kind of crowded positioning often creates the opposite conditions for moves in that direction. Thus, if BTC price manages to maintain its current levels or push higher, the buildup of short positions could trigger a squeeze that would accelerate the move upward. The Conditions That Could Lead To A Bitcoin Reversal Bitcoin’s recent upside has been largely driven by institutional spot buying pressure over the last few weeks, with each major move higher supported by strong inflows visible in spot volume data. Crypto trader CGT Trader explained that the Coinbase Premium Index has also confirmed the same trend, which recorded a significant spike in institutional demand at the recent local top. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rebounds Strongly — Can Bulls Drive Price Toward $79,000 Since then, the BTC price has continued to grind higher, but the institutional spot buying has failed to make a new high. This creates a growing divergence that suggests a potential reversal. However, if this downtrend continues and large players start selling, the move could be retraced much faster than the recent upward rally. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Post-quantum startup Project Eleven has today awarded a 1 BTC ($77,736 at writing time) prize to the independent researcher Giancarlo Lelli for the latest and largest demonstration of a quantum attack on Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC). Using a publicly accessible quantum computer, Lelli successfully derived a 15-bit elliptic curve private key from its public key …
Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating around $77,600 as the price fails to break above the nearest resistance area near $79,500. With the market stuck in this range, attention is shifting to the possibility that Bitcoin could finally shift direction, potentially ending the current compression. A major part of this discussion is the CME gap around $82,000. In this context, CME gaps are treated as imbalances that can appear in futures pricing over periods when traditional trading is closed, such as weekends, while crypto trades continuously. Drop To $60,000 Still On The Table Market analyst Rekt Fencer recently claimed on social media that Bitcoin will “100%” fill the $82,000 CME gap on its 12-hour chart. The expectation being highlighted is that over $10 billion worth of short positions could be liquidated when BTC closes the $82,000 level. Even with that strong technical catalyst, Fencer also warned that the outcome may not remain purely bullish. He cautioned that the move could set up a new bull trap first, followed by a sharp correction. Related Reading: Bitcoin Nears $80,000: Two Scenarios That May Decide Q2—Bulls Or Bears? The broader consequence could be a decline toward February lows around $60,000. If that scenario plays out, it would imply roughly a 26% retrace from that level, potentially reigniting bearish sentiment across the market. However, another perspective is coming from institutional analysis. A new study by Coinbase Institutional argues for a different outlook, contesting the idea that Bitcoin’s recovery over the past week is driven only by leverage. The report frames the rally as potentially stronger than it looks, pointing to real demand rather than simply borrowing and forced positioning. What’s Behind The Bitcoin Rally? The study lists several indicators supporting its view. Rising exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows are said to be near their highest levels this year, signaling stronger institutional demand. It also notes accumulation by long-term holders, which is described as concentrating supply into “strong hands.” While short liquidations can help trigger upward momentum, the report argues that similar squeezes have historically happened before—yet sustained rallies tend to last when spot demand supports the move, not just leverage. Related Reading: XRP ETFs Post Longest Back-To-Back Gains Of 2026—Key Numbers Inside A key area highlighted by the institutional framing is approximately $80,000, described as the short-term holder cost basis. According to this interpretation, reclaiming around $80,000 could confirm that the market structure is strengthening. If Bitcoin fails and rejects that level, the implication would be that weakness could persist rather than a durable uptrend forming. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s exchange reserves have been dwindling massively in recent days. Coins are moving off exchanges at a steady pace, removing available supply ready for purchase. Recent on-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin balances on exchanges continue to decline and are moving into stronger hands. On the other hand, data tracking the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit shows that only about half of the addresses are in profit. Bitcoin Is Disappearing From Exchange Order Books CryptoQuant data tracking Bitcoin exchange reserves across all platforms shows the aggregate balance has fallen to approximately 2.671 million BTC as of April 24. Notably, reserves in exchanges have fallen from 2.68 million BTC on April 19, with the sharpest leg of the drawdown occurring during Bitcoin’s price climb above $77,700. Related Reading: Analyst Sounds Bitcoin Warning: This Surge Above $78,000 Should Not Be Trusted Whenever Bitcoin leaves exchanges, it reduces the liquid supply available for immediate selling. This kind of supply reduction will always support price strength, especially when there is enough demand. Bitcoin’s exchange reserves have continued falling throughout the cycle, even as prices corrected. However, perhaps the most telling development lies in how Bitcoin ownership is changing beneath the surface. CryptoQuant’s STH/LTH Supply vs. ETF Flows data, which tracks 30-day position changes across participant cohorts, reveals a decisive redistribution of Bitcoin ownership from weaker hands to stronger ones. Over the last 30 days, long-term holders have added 303,000 BTC to their positions. Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed a net 16,800 BTC in inflows. Strategy has also added 53,000 BTC to its holdings over the same period. Meanwhile, short-term holders, the cohort most sensitive to price movements and most likely to sell into strength or panic on weakness, have reduced their aggregate position by about 290,000 BTC. Only Half Of Bitcoin Supply Is In Profit Even as Bitcoin is being taken off crypto exchanges, profitability metrics show a more subdued outlook of how many investors are currently making money. On-chain data shows the seven-day moving average of the percentage of BTC supply in profit is currently at 52.3%, according to insights from The Block. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Is Going To $170,000: Here’s When To Buy And When To Sell At its peak, above $126,000 in October 2025, 99.66% of the supply was in profit. The drop to near 50% is a reflection of the impact of the correction that followed, bringing a large portion of the market back to breakeven levels. Still, Bitcoin’s recent rally above $77,000 pushed many more holders into profit. Only about 44.1% of the Bitcoin supply was held in profit on April 2. Readings above 90% are a reflection of late-stage bull markets. Therefore, based on that context, the current reading of 52.3% can be viewed through a bullish lens. The three data streams (declining exchange reserves, net accumulation by long-term holders and institutions) and a supply-in-profit reading at the midpoint show Bitcoin is currently in a period of consolidation. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin held near $78,000 on Friday as oil prices climbed past $100 a barrel, testing whether the largest digital asset can sustain its April rebound while the US-Iran conflict keeps energy markets on edge. The move came after President Donald Trump escalated his rhetoric over the Strait of Hormuz, saying the US Navy controlled the […]
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Bitcoin has climbed more than 30% from its February lows and is pressing toward $80,000, turning sentiment sharply bullish across trading communities. One analyst who has tracked this structure for months says the excitement may be arriving at exactly the wrong moment. The question is not whether the rally is real. It is what comes …
Bitcoin's rise reflects market optimism, but sustained geopolitical tensions could still impact global economic stability and investor confidence.
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Independent researcher Giancarlo Lelli derived a 15-bit elliptic curve key on a publicly accessible quantum computer, Project Eleven said.
Metaplanet's bond issuance for Bitcoin accumulation could influence corporate treasury strategies and impact Bitcoin's market dynamics.
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Etherealize, an institutional adoption and advocacy group backed by the Ethereum Foundation, has made a bold prediction, suggesting that ETH could one day reach $250,000 before Bitcoin (BTC). The group said that if Ethereum can capture a share of the combined monetary premium of gold and Bitcoin, the upside could be massive. That target is significantly higher than ETH’s current price of around $2,300, and would require a major shift in how global markets value the cryptocurrency. It would also mean Ethereum could become more than a smart contract chain and grow into a top store of value, similar to Bitcoin. How Ethereum Could Hit $250,000 Before Bitcoin In an X post, Etherealize published a detailed report outlining the factors that could push Ethereum toward the ambitious $250,000 valuation. For Ethereum to reach that price level, the group suggested that the cryptocurrency would need to be treated as a global monetary asset. That means pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, banks, and public firms would need to buy and hold ETH at scale rather than relying solely on Bitcoin. Related Reading: Analyst Predicts A 30% Bitcoin Price Crash To $50,000, Here’s When Etherealize also pointed to supply dynamics as a major factor that could support price growth. The group explained that when ETH is staked or locked, fewer coins trade freely on the market. As a result, if demand rises while liquidity remains tight, upward price pressure could build more quickly, driving ETH higher. Beyond supply-and-demand trends, Etherealize also identified Ethereum’s ability to generate yield as a key driver of price growth. They noted that, unlike BTC, Ethereum can offer staking rewards to holders. Therefore, if global investors begin to view ETH as both a growth asset and an income-producing asset, it could strengthen its appeal as a long-term holding. Over time, the growing demand for cryptocurrency could fuel an upward momentum that could propel it toward the projected $250,000 target. ETH Price Outlook Dependent On Global Monetary Value According to Etherealize, price action alone would not be enough to carry Ethereum to a $250,000 valuation. Instead, the group noted that that ambitious target depends on Ethereum capturing the combined monetary premium of gold and Bitcoin, which is about $31 trillion. Etherealize argued that if Ethereum were to acquire part of that value, and move it across its roughly 121 million circulating supply, it could support a much higher valuation over time. Once this happens, they noted that Ethereum could begin competing for existing global stores of value. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Cycle Is Different: Crypto Expert Reveals When Price Will Cross $100,000 Again Etherealize also highlighted Ethereum’s role as a programmable blockchain that already supports a wide range of activity. In addition to being a payments currency, the crypto network also enables stablecoin issuance and real-world asset tokenization. This existing use case could also be a potential driver for ETH’s price. Ultimately, Ethereum reaching $250,000 before Bitcoin is still a long shot. However, Etherealize believes that if ETH can become the base layer for global finance, attract sustained institutional demand, and capture value currently stored in gold and Bitcoin, that ambitious target could move from pure speculation to a possible long-term outcome. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Anthony Scaramucci said Bitcoin may not see a meaningful recovery until October or November, arguing that the current drawdown still fits the asset’s historic four-year cycle despite a more favorable regulatory backdrop in Washington. Speaking on the Thinking Crypto podcast from the Solana Policy Summit, the SkyBridge Capital founder framed the market weakness as a cyclical bear phase rather than a structural break. He said investors had expected a stronger policy-driven rally after the change in US administration, but that whales and long-time holders have continued to sell into ETF-driven demand. “I’m old school. I’ve been in the category that this is a cyclical bear market traditional to the four-year cycle of Bitcoin,” Scaramucci said. “You’ve just crossed the halfway mark of the halving and so you’re on your way to the back half of this thing. You typically don’t get any type of real recovery until the first quarter of next year.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Enters Disbelief Phase As Traders Keep Shorting The Rally Scaramucci added that Bitcoin’s timeline may have been slightly accelerated by macro factors, including President Donald Trump’s tariff-related messaging and geopolitical conflict. Still, he said Bitcoin has remained “fairly sticky” during the war period referenced in the interview. “You probably won’t see a recovery in Bitcoin until maybe the first month of the last quarter,” he said, pointing to “October possibly November” as a more realistic window. Why Bitcoin ETF Demand Has Not Been Enough The comments address a central frustration across the crypto market: why prices have failed to respond more forcefully to a pro-crypto administration, institutional ETF access, and improving legislative momentum. According to Scaramucci, the answer lies partly in supply. ETF activity has brought new buyers into Bitcoin, including older investors using traditional brokerage channels, but that demand has met heavy distribution from whales and early holders. “You’re still seeing a lot of Bitcoin buying. A lot of boomers are buying Bitcoin, but it’s just not enough,” he said. “You got whales that are selling into the — the OGs in this industry believe in the four-year cycle. And so what they do is they fulfill the prophecy of the four-year cycle by acting on the four-year cycle and selling.” He said whales were “pumping lots of coins into the supply at around $100,000,” which in his view contributed to Bitcoin falling into the high $60,000s. Scaramucci also tied Bitcoin’s next phase of institutional adoption to US market-structure legislation, especially the Clarity Act. He argued that the idea Bitcoin is “valueless” is now “completely off the table,” but said banks are unlikely to move aggressively without clearer rules. “If you don’t get the Clarity Act legislation passed, you’re not going to get the banks to really open up,” he said. He cited experimental custody programs at Bank of New York and SoFi, while arguing that real adoption requires major money-center banks to offer custody, yield, and borrowing against Bitcoin on more competitive terms. Until then, he said, investors will not see “real full-throated adoption.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Rebuild As Futures Metric Hits 4-Month High Scaramucci also criticized the political and lobbying dynamics around stablecoin yield and crypto legislation. He said banks are pushing back because of their entrenched market position, while warning that holding out for a perfect bill could delay progress. “I’m a little bit more practical. I probably would have tried to get something done and I would not make the perfect deal the enemy of progress,” he said. “The best example I can give you is the Bitcoin ETF. Gary Gensler hates us. He did not want that to happen. He lost the lawsuit, so he was forced to have it happen.” Bitcoin Reserve Debate Still Politicized On the question of whether the US government should hold Bitcoin in strategic reserves, Scaramucci said yes, but only if the issue can move beyond partisan framing. “It’s very hard to hold Bitcoin in a strategic reserve if it’s a partisan issue,” he said. “If we can get this to be a transformative post-partisan what’s right or wrong for the country, what’s right or wrong for the American taxpayer, then the answer is yes.” He said he would not aggressively push the issue before broader consensus forms, instead favoring an approach where government-held Bitcoin from legal actions is retained rather than sold. He also said he was unsure whether the US government had completed an audit of its Bitcoin holdings. At press time, BTC traded at $77,844. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Spot bitcoin ETFs logged $223.2 million in net inflows on Thursday, led by $167.5 million into BlackRock's IBIT.
In the first quarter of this year, Metaplanet purchased 5,075 BTC, bringing its total to 40,177 BTC as of March 31.
MicroStrategy is pushing a new narrative around Bitcoin, with CEO Phong Le detailing how the firm is building a yield-driven system around BTC. Le described the approach as a “digital credit ecosystem,” where capital is deployed into Bitcoin-linked strategies with target returns as high as 30%, and a portion of that yield is passed back …
Bitcoin’s advance over the past four weeks is colliding with a derivatives market that still looks positioned for weakness. Analysts tracking Binance funding and futures basis say traders continue to lean short even as BTC moves higher, creating what CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost described via X as a “phase of disbelief” rather than a clean bullish reset. That divergence matters because it suggests the rally is unfolding against persistent skepticism, not broad conviction. In crypto, that kind of setup can cut both ways: it can signal fragile market structure, but it can also provide fuel if bearish positioning is forced to unwind. Darkfost pointed to the 30-day cumulative evolution of Binance funding rates as the clearest sign that the market remains out of sync with price. “We’ve been hearing a lot about funding rates lately, as they remain negative even while Bitcoin continues to move higher,” he wrote. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Cycle Is Right On Schedule: Analyst Reveals When The Bull Run Will Begin “This chart offers a different perspective from what is usually observed. It shows the 30 day cumulative evolution of funding rates on Binance, making it easier to clearly identify when funding entered a sustained negative trend.” His comparison was to late 2022, when Bitcoin was beginning to emerge from the bear market. At that point, Binance funding rates kept falling and reached as low as -7% on a 30-day cumulative basis. Today, the same indicator sits around -4.5%, which, in his view, shows how aggressively traders have continued betting against the move in recent months. Darkfost’s argument is not simply that funding is negative, but that the persistence of that negativity reflects a market still trying to fade price strength. “Each time such a strong consensus has formed, it has instead helped create a bottom and fueled the rally that was beginning to develop,” he said. “As I mentioned several days ago, the market has entered a phase of disbelief, where traders still prefer fighting the trend rather than following it.” Bitcoin Derivatives Market In A Regime Of Caution On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. approached the same backdrop from a more defensive angle. In his April 23 market note, he argued that Bitcoin’s derivatives structure is “rapidly losing its bullish structure” as the short-term futures premium over spot nearly disappears. The 7-day basis SMA dropped from +0.465% to +0.054% in just four days, while the funding rate 7DMA remained negative at -0.00945%. For Adler, the message is straightforward: the market is no longer willing to pay up for long leverage. “Basis 7D SMA has sharply compressed and is almost at zero, showing that the futures premium over spot has nearly vanished,” he wrote. “This is not just a local cooldown – it is nearly a complete disappearance of the futures premium over spot. Meanwhile, the 30D SMA remains noticeably higher, around +0.41%, meaning the short-term derivatives structure has deteriorated much faster than the medium-term norm.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Rebuild As Futures Metric Hits 4-Month High He made a similar point on funding. “What matters is not just the negative reading itself, but its persistence,” Adler said. “This is not a one-off spike or a panic anomaly within a single hour. This is a steady accumulation of bearish positioning, where the market continues to pay for short exposure.” Taken together, the two analysts are reading the same data through slightly different lenses. Darkfost sees disbelief as a potentially constructive condition for the ongoing rally, especially if consensus remains heavily skewed against price. Adler sees a market that has lost its bullish premium and is shifting into a more cautious regime unless basis and funding recover. At press time, BTC traded at $77,836. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
The question of whether the Bitcoin price has hit a final bottom remains a major topic of discussion, as analysts remain unconvinced that the flagship cryptocurrency has reached a definitive floor. A recent analysis by market expert Maxi Trades suggests Bitcoin could be positioning for another major correction, forecasting a 30% crash that could push the price to fresh lows near $50,000. The bearish outlook has added to the market’s growing uncertainty about Bitcoin’s price direction, especially after the cryptocurrency’s latest rebound above $78,000. Historical Patterns Signal Upcoming Bitcoin Price Crash In his BTC price analysis shared on X this week, Maxi Trades drew on historical data and recurring chart patterns to support his bearish outlook for Bitcoin and projected bottom target. The analyst noted that the Bitcoin price has been stuck within a defined range for more than two and a half months now. He pointed out that a decisive breakout, either to the upside or the downside, has historically followed such an extended consolidation. Related Reading: Bears Are Fully In Control Of Bitcoin And It Will Crash Below $60,000, Here’s Why According to Maxi Trades, the last three times Bitcoin displayed a similar range-bound movement, it took roughly 64 to 114 days for a breakout to occur. His accompanying chart reflects this historical setup, showing that during the first prolonged consolidation, Bitcoin traded sideways for 64 days before surging by 14%. The second instance saw the cryptocurrency remain range-bound for 114 days, followed by a decline of approximately 27%. In a third similar formation, Bitcoin consolidated for 77 days before recording a 33% price crash. Based on this recurring trend, the analyst believes that Bitcoin could be approaching another major volatility event, with downside risk still on the table once its current range-bound movement resolves. Analyst Sees Bitcoin’s True Bottom Around $50,000 In his post, Maxi Trades noted that despite Bitcoin remaining in a bear market for more than six months since its October 2025 all-time high above $126,000, its price action has yet to show any signs of a true bottom formation. Because of this, he argued that the market has likely not reached its final capitulation phase. Related Reading: Why The PEPE Price Could Stage A 55X Rally To Reach New $0.0001 ATH As a result, the analyst said he is highly confident that BTC’s next breakout may be to the downside, warning of another major price crash before a true market bottom is established. He added that if the current cycle unfolds like previous range-bound periods, the market may still have time left before the anticipated breakout. Maxi Traders further noted that if his bearish scenario plays out and Bitcoin breaks below its recent lows, then the cryptocurrency could experience a rapid correction toward $50,000, marking a decline of more than 36% from current levels above $78,000. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin price started a fresh increase and cleared the $78,000 zone. BTC is consolidating and might aim for more gains above the $78,550 level. Bitcoin managed to stay above $77,000 and started a fresh increase. The price is trading above $77,800 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $78,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might extend gains if it stays above the $77,200 and $77,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Eyes Fresh Upside Bitcoin price found support near $75,000 and started a fresh increase. BTC gained pace for a move above the $76,500 and $77,500 resistance levels. The bulls even pushed the price above $79,000. A high was formed at $79,490, and the price started a minor downside correction. It declined below $78,000 and tested the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $74,850 swing low to the $79,490 high. However, the bulls were active above $77,000. Bitcoin is now trading above $78,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is also a bullish trend line forming with support at $78,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. If the price remains stable above $77,200, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $78,550 level. The first key resistance is near the $79,000 level. A close above the $79,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $79,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $80,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $82,000. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $78,550 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $78,000 level. The first major support is near the $77,000 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $74,850 swing low to the $79,490 high. The next support is now near the $76,250 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $75,500 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $75,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $77,200, followed by $77,000. Major Resistance Levels – $78,550 and $79,000.
Bitcoin futures markets lit up within an hour of US President Donald Trump hinting that diplomatic talks with Iran could resume as early as Friday. Open interest on Binance climbed nearly 2%, while CME recorded a 0.5% rise, reflecting a quick surge in bullish bets from derivatives traders. Related Reading: A New Phase For XRP? Integrations Keep Rolling In Across The Ecosystem Derivatives Market Responds Fast Total Bitcoin futures open interest jumped over 8% in 24 hours, crossing $62 billion, according to data from CoinGlass. That kind of movement in the derivatives market signals traders are positioning for further upside, not just reacting to a short-term bounce. Bitcoin itself climbed more than 4% over the same period, pushing past $78,000 — a level that puts the $80K target back within reach after weeks of pressure. Price action followed in the wake of US equities indexes rebounding from their previous losses. The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones all climbed by about 1%, benefiting from the ceasefire extension as well as strong company earnings results. Risk assets across the board were bid up as investors responded to the softer tone coming out of Washington. Trump told the New York Post that a second round of talks was possible as soon as Friday — a comment that quickly circulated across financial markets. Pakistan has also backed the push, with mediators actively working to set up a new round of negotiations. The ceasefire between the US and Iran had already been extended by three to five days before these latest signals emerged. Iran’s Position Remains Unclear But the picture on Iran’s side is far from settled. According to the Tasnim news agency, Iran had no current plans to negotiate on Friday — a direct contradiction of Trump’s stated expectations. Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has not been communicating directly, and a divide between IRGC generals and Iran’s civilian negotiators is adding to the uncertainty. Iranian forces also seized two cargo ships near the Strait of Hormuz shortly after the ceasefire extension was announced, a move that complicated the diplomatic mood. Trump’s negotiators, based on reports, are now unsure whether there are reliable partners on the Iranian side to move a deal forward. Related Reading: Consistent XRP Buys Could Deliver Outsized Gains By 2030: Finance Expert Bitcoin Volume Data Raises Caution Bitcoin’s 24-hour trading volume dropped 30% even as the price climbed. That gap between price action and volume is a familiar warning sign in crypto markets — it suggests the rally may lack the broad participation needed to hold higher levels. Despite the $80K target drawing attention again, thin volume means the move could reverse quickly if the geopolitical situation shifts. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin and crypto have already proven that six figures are achievable, with price surging past $100,000 and extending to a peak of $126,198 in 2025. However, the pullback that followed has since dragged Bitcoin down to around $78,267. Yet, rather than signaling the end of the cycle, one expert argues that this downtrend is part of a broader structure that points to a return above $100,000. Bitcoin’s $100,000 Crypto Cycle Crypto expert @TheRealPlanC recently stated in a tweet that the rally which carried Bitcoin beyond $100,000 did not occur under favorable economic conditions. Instead, he explained that it developed during a contractionary business cycle, a period that has historically constrained risk assets. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Playbook: Analyst Says These 4 Numbers Are Your Entire Week Even within that restrictive environment, Bitcoin advanced into six-figure territory, suggesting that underlying demand remained intact. As the expert notes, that strength was met with sustained selling. Long-term holders reduced exposure as prices climbed beyond $100,000, while traders guided by Bitcoin’s four-year cycle exited positions toward the latter part of 2025. The decline that followed was intense but not driven by market structure alone. A combination of disruptions, including an exchange-related incident, institutional trading concerns, and heightened global uncertainty, added further strain. Despite these pressures, Bitcoin’s drawdown settled at roughly 52% from peak to trough, a level that, in the analyst’s view, reflects a correction rather than a collapse. This sequence, as @TheRealPlanC frames it, recasts the $126,198 high. Instead of marking the end of the cycle, it begins to resemble the first peak in a market that has yet to fully play out. When Bitcoin Could Climb Back Above $100,000 With Bitcoin now trading well below its previous high, the focus shifts to timing its return above $100,000. The Crypto expert links this expectation to a shift in the broader economic backdrop. He points to recent data showing the business cycle moving above the neutral threshold for three consecutive months, a development that signals a transition toward expansion. This shift is significant because it contrasts with the restrictive conditions that defined the earlier rally, opening the door for renewed upside. Related Reading: Pundit Predicts XRP Price Will Hit $100 In 2026 If These Dominoes Fall He also highlights changing demand dynamics. Large-scale accumulation, led by corporate buyers such as Michael Saylor, is reportedly absorbing between 10,000 and 30,000 Bitcoin each week. In the analyst’s view, this steady demand adds a structural layer of support as the market stabilizes. Within this context, @TheRealPlanC interprets the decline from $126,198 to current levels near $78,267 as a mid-cycle reset rather than a prolonged downturn. Based on this framework, the analyst expects Bitcoin to reclaim $100,000 as conditions improve. He ultimately places the next major peak in 2027, suggesting that a move back above six figures could occur before that point as momentum gradually rebuilds. This perspective positions the current phase as part of an extended cycle, where reclaiming $100,000 signals continuation rather than completion. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com