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Bitcoin has lost the $80,000 level as the market faces a wave of uncertainty that has erased the confidence built during weeks of gradual recovery. The breakdown is not catastrophic in isolation — but XWIN Research Japan has identified a set of on-chain conditions that place the current moment in a historical context that demands careful attention before drawing conclusions about what comes next. Related Reading: XRP Holds Key Level, But Binance Flow Data Signals Weakening Demand The analysis draws on CryptoQuant data to describe a market at a genuine inflection point. Bitcoin rallied approximately 37% from the April lows, a recovery that carried it back toward the 200-day moving average at approximately $82,400 — a technical level that has acted as major resistance during previous bear market recovery attempts. The price reached that level and is now retreating from it. The historical parallel that XWIN Research Japan identifies is March 2022. At that point in the previous cycle, Bitcoin staged a sharp rebound of comparable magnitude before failing at the 200-day moving average and resuming the broader downtrend that eventually carried it to the cycle lows. The structural resemblance between that moment and the current one is the finding that cannot be dismissed without examining the evidence carefully. Compounding the concern, unrealized profit margins have climbed to 17.7% — the highest level since June 2025 — approaching the readings that accompanied the 2022 recovery rally before profit-taking accelerated and the advance stalled. The pressure building in the data is real. Whether it resolves the same way is the question the analysis addresses. The 2022 Bitcoin Warning Is Real The XWIN Research Japan analysis does not dismiss the bearish parallel — it earns the right to challenge it by acknowledging the evidence for it first. On May 4, traders realized profits of 14,600 BTC in a single day, the largest daily profit-taking spike since December 2025. Historically, single-day realizations of that scale tend to appear near local tops rather than in the middle of sustained advances. The signal is present and documented. What follows in the analysis is the case for why the current structure differs from the 2022 analog despite the surface similarities. Spot demand contraction has narrowed dramatically — from -91,000 BTC in April to approximately -11,000 BTC today. Selling pressure of that magnitude characterized the 2022 bear cycle throughout its duration. The current reading is a fraction of that. Long-term holder panic selling remains limited, and the average spot order size data points to whale-sized participation rather than retail-driven activity. Suggesting that large, informed capital is still accumulating through the volatility rather than exiting alongside it. The structural context that did not exist in 2022 adds the final layer. Spot ETFs, corporate Bitcoin adoption, and the regulatory clarity being advanced through the CLARITY Act represent institutional infrastructure that provides demand support the previous cycle simply did not have access to. The honest conclusion the analysis reaches is that Bitcoin may not be repeating 2022. It may instead be navigating a transitional phase. One where the asset is institutionalizing in real time, and where the historical playbook requires updating before it can be applied reliably to what comes next. Related Reading: A Quiet Rotation Into Altcoins May Already Be Underway: Altseason Hopes Return Bitcoin Faces Resistance After Recovery Rally Bitcoin is trading near $79,700 after losing momentum around the $80,000–$82,000 region, an area that has become the market’s immediate battleground. The daily chart shows BTC retreating after a powerful recovery from February lows near $63,000, a move that delivered roughly a 37% rally before price ran directly into major technical resistance. The rejection comes at an important point because the advance stalled precisely as Bitcoin approached the declining 200-day moving average near $82,400. That level carries historical importance. During previous bear-market recovery phases, the 200-day moving average frequently acted as a line separating temporary relief rallies from broader trend reversals. BTC briefly tested the region and immediately began showing signs of exhaustion. Related Reading: 21Shares Is Launching A Hyperliquid ETF: Here Is What Investors Need To Know Despite the pullback, the broader structure has not yet broken down. Bitcoin continues holding above the key support zone around $73,000–$75,000 highlighted on the chart. That region aligns with previous consolidation and sits close to the rising shorter-term moving averages. As long as price remains above it, buyers maintain technical control of the recovery structure. Volume has also declined during the latest push higher, suggesting momentum participation weakened near resistance. For now, Bitcoin remains trapped between key support and long-term resistance, leaving the market at a critical decision point. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

A warning from Bitcoin’s weekly chart is showing a familiar bear market structure beginning to take shape. According to technical analysis of the weekly chart, Bitcoin has already moved through a topside distribution phase and a range phase beneath it, and the current price action is now forming a redistribution zone.  The concern is that a similar setup appeared after the 2021 peak before Bitcoin went through a much deeper decline. The last time this setup appeared, it erased nearly 80% of Bitcoin’s value in under a year. Bitcoin Chart Following The 2021 Breakdown Structure The analysis compares Bitcoin’s current weekly chart with the structure that developed during the 2021 to 2022 bear market. In that previous cycle, Bitcoin first created a distribution zone near the top. The price then entered a range phase below that high, creating the appearance of stabilization before the market rolled into a redistribution area. Related Reading: Ripple CEO Reveals What It Would Mean For XRP Holders If The Company Went Public The first stage in 2021, which was a Distribution Phase, occurred as Bitcoin reached its then-peak near $69,000. In the current cycle, the same pattern materialized around the $108,000 to $126,000 zone, forming a wide but delineated top. The second stage was a Range Phase, which is a minor consolidation band directly beneath the distribution ceiling where price stabilized before the next move.  The third stage, and the one that might be forming right now, is Redistribution. This is the structure that immediately preceded the 2021 crash. It is a secondary range, lower than the first, where sellers reassert control before a decisive breakdown. In 2021, the conclusion of this redistribution phase was the last exit point before the Bitcoin price fell 78% over the following eight months. Bitcoin Weekly Price Chart. Source: @degargoyle On X Is This A Sell Signal? The question now is whether this is a sell signal, but the chart does not give a simple answer. What it does show is a warning against assuming that the recent bounce above $80,000 is the beginning of a run to a new all-time high. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $79,800. The redistribution phase, if confirmed, does not guarantee a crash of 78% or any fixed magnitude. But a repeat of a 78% crash from current price levels will see the Bitcoin price falling below $25,000. Related Reading: XRP’s Current Predicament Is Only Temporary; These Factors Will Drive It To $18 However, it is also important to note that Bitcoin’s fundamentals and structural environment in 2026 bear little resemblance to the one that existed when the last crash took hold. When Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025, the rally had been due to strong ETF inflows and favorable regulatory conditions, institutional pillars that did not exist four years ago. Market sentiment is back to neutral, and the more balanced interpretation is that Bitcoin is now in a confirmation zone. A strong weekly claim above $84,000 would weaken the sell signal and suggest that buyers are in full control. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin has been seeing recurring mid-month strength this year, and it is becoming harder to separate it from Strategy’s (formerly MicroStrategy) expanding preferred-stock machine. The funding channel is helping the company continue to buy the flagship digital asset while adding a growing layer of cost to its balance sheet. Research firm K33 has tied the […]
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An early Ethereum investor who spent approximately $120 during the 2015 ETH presale has resurfaced after more than a decade of dormancy, moving 400 ETH — worth roughly $900,000 at current prices — in a transaction flagged by on-chain intelligence platform Arkham on May 14, 2026. The Ethereum Trade Of A Lifetime According to Arkham’s post on X, the wallet sent 50 ETH to a new address and deposited 350 ETH directly to Bitstamp, one of the world’s oldest regulated cryptocurrency exchanges — a move consistent with a partial or full liquidation of a position held untouched for over ten years. Related Reading: Dogecoin Fisher Transform Turns Bullish: The Last Setups Were Explosive The return on the original investment stands at more than 7,500x, per Arkham’s analysis, making it one of the more striking examples of what patient early-stage participation in the nascent sector can produce. The wallet address — 0xE0F372347c96B55f7D4306034bEb83266FD90966 — is publicly verifiable on Arkham’s blockchain intelligence platform, where transaction history confirms the ETH holdings dating back to the presale period and the recent outbound activity consistent with the transfers described. This guy turned $120 into $900K in a single trade. He bought $120 of ETH in the Ethereum presale in 2015 and just moved it today. He sent 50 ETH to a new wallet and deposited 350 ETH to Bitstamp. It took 10 years, but he’s up over 7500x. pic.twitter.com/3tusW682lB — Arkham (@arkham) May 14, 2026  The Macro Backdrop Behind The Move The timing of the transfer arrives at a moment of measured optimism for Ethereum specifically. According to QCP Capital’s most recent market update, Bitcoin has been consolidating around $80,000 near its 200-day simple moving average — absorbing ETF outflows and a slightly hotter-than-expected April CPI print without losing the critical $80,000 level, suggesting downside momentum is fading. As Bitcoin and Ethereum remain closely correlated risk assets, the stabilization in BTC has provided a floor for ETH as well. QCP’s assessment frames the current environment as range-bound, with compressed volatility and positioning waiting for the next macro impulse. The key catalysts identified by the firm include softer PPI data, constructive developments from ongoing US-China diplomatic engagement, and progress on the CLARITY Act — any of which could break Ethereum out of its current consolidation range. The CPI detail matters for ETH holders in particular. While the headline print appeared hawkish, QCP noted that shelter costs — specifically owners’ equivalent rent — drove most of the upside, and likely reflect delayed BLS methodology adjustments rather than renewed demand-side inflation pressure. A cleaner read on underlying inflation could support the case for eventual rate cuts, a macro environment that has historically provided a tailwind for risk assets including Ethereum. Related Reading: Bitcoin Faces Major Test As 37% Recovery Collides With Bear Resistance This development marks a notable moment for long-term Ethereum holders watching the asset consolidate well below its August 2025 all-time high of $4,946. The presale investor who turned $120 into $900,000 chose this window to finally move — a decision that, regardless of the macro uncertainty ahead, represents one of the most patient and profitable exits the Ethereum ecosystem has ever recorded on-chain. ETH's price records a small uptick since March 2026 as seen on the daily chart. Source: ETHUSD on Tradingview As of this writing, Ethereum trades at around $2,336, holding above key support as the market awaits the next catalyst to determine whether the current consolidation resolves to the upside or requires a further reset before the next leg higher. Cover image from Grok, ETHUSD chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin’s break below $80,000 has pushed traders toward a crowded leverage zone where a further decline could force about $1 billion of long positions out of the market. According to CryptoSlate data, the largest cryptocurrency fell to as low as $78,725 after US inflation readings came in hotter than expected, weakening expectations that the Federal […]
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Traders cashed out nearly $1.2 billion worth of Bitcoin in a single day last week — a sign that the recent recovery may be running out of steam. Related Reading: XRP Bulls Gain Momentum As ETF Inflows Reach Multi-Month High On May 4, investors sold 14,600 Bitcoin, pushing daily realized profits to their highest point since early December. According to CryptoQuant, that kind of selling spike during a bear market rally has historically marked a local price top. A Rally Under Pressure Bitcoin climbed roughly 37% over six weeks, rising from $66,000 in early April to briefly touch $82,380. That level lines up with the cryptocurrency’s 200-day moving average — a technical marker that proved to be a wall during the 2022 bear market. Back then, Bitcoin hit that same average in March before sliding further into a prolonged decline. CryptoQuant’s latest research draws a direct line between that episode and today’s setup. Unrealized profits among traders also spiked during the recent run-up. On May 5, profit margins reached over 17%, the highest reading since June of last year. Bitcoin traders’ unrealized profit margins hit 17.7%, the highest since June 2025. The last time margins reached these levels while Bitcoin tested the 200-day MA was March 2022, just before the downtrend resumed. pic.twitter.com/Zgfe9jFTiv — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) May 13, 2026 Data shows that figure mirrors conditions last seen in March 2022 — right before Bitcoin resumed its fall. The combination of profit-taking and a historically significant resistance level has prompted CryptoQuant to flag the possibility of a trend reversal. Inflation Data Adds To The Pressure Outside the crypto market, broader economic signals are adding to the uncertainty. The US Labor Department reported that producer prices rose 1.4% in April, the steepest increase in four years. Bitcoin has grown more sensitive to US economic data as Wall Street adoption has expanded, and the inflation report pushed the price down 2.3% in 24 hours to around $79,250. If selling pressure does push Bitcoin lower, CryptoQuant puts the next major support around $70,000. That level reflects the average price at which all Bitcoin was last transacted and has historically shifted from resistance to support during bear markets. At that point, short-term traders would have little unrealized profit left, removing much of the incentive to sell. Bulls Still See A Different Path Not everyone reads the charts the same way. MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe said Bitcoin could make a fast move to $90,000 if the US Senate advances the CLARITY Act, a long-awaited piece of crypto legislation. This can literally go both ways. If this continues to grind upwards, with the upcoming CLARITY Act tomorrow, I would assume we might see a fast move to $90K in a matter of days for #Bitcoin. The build-up is sincerely strong. pic.twitter.com/rYkwa7lWYF — Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) May 13, 2026 Related Reading: Strategy Boosts Bitcoin Position With Fresh $206M STRC Injection A return to Bitcoin’s all-time high of $126,000 is seen as almost inevitable, according to Maelstrom investment chief Arthur Hayes Hayes pointed to money printing pressures linked to the Iran conflict and the escalating US-China race in artificial intelligence as key catalysts. Both views reflect the sharp divide among market watchers as Bitcoin sits at a critical juncture. Featured image from Mint, chart from TradingView

Jane Street sharply reduced its Bitcoin ETF exposure in the first quarter of 2026, cutting reported holdings in BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC while increasing positions in Ether ETFs and several crypto-linked equities. The move has revived speculation that one of the market’s largest trading firms may have been a major force in Bitcoin’s recent price dynamics — and that a lighter reported position could remove a key overhang for BTC. According to the latest 13F filings, Jane Street cut its IBIT position by roughly 71% and its FBTC position by about 60% in Q1. Parker White, the Chief Operating Officer (COO) and Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of DeFi Development Corp (DFDV), renewed his thesis from February and argued via X that the filing may help answer questions that have circulated since a major IBIT trading dislocation on February 5 when BTC price saw a massive -18% drawdown. “It is now apparent that Jane Street cut their IBIT and FBTC holdings by roughly 70% in Q1 based on 13F filings,” Parker wrote on X. “Did they just outright sell or more likely, did they make a HUGE profit on their short derivatives, which they don’t have to report? We are still waiting for the final shoe to drop with one of the likely culprits of the blowup.” It is now apparent that Jane Street cut their IBIT and FBTC holdings by roughly 70% in Q1 based on 13F filings. Did they just outright sell or more likely, did they make a HUGE profit on their short derivatives (which they don’t have to report)? We are still waiting for the… https://t.co/67XxlwZEGm — Parker (@TheOtherParker_) May 13, 2026 Related Reading: Bitcoin Just Entered A Deceptive Territory, Here’s What You Should Know Will The Bitcoin Price Rally Now? The filing does not show Jane Street’s derivatives exposure, nor does it establish whether the firm was directionally bearish, hedged, or engaged in ETF arbitrage and market-making activity. That limitation is central to the debate. A 13F captures certain long holdings at quarter-end, but it does not give a complete view of options, swaps, futures, or short exposure that could materially change the economic interpretation of the reported cuts. Still, the reduction has become a focal point because of earlier claims that Bitcoin’s price discovery may have been distorted by the mechanics of spot ETF trading. Bitwise advisor Jeff Park wrote that Jane Street had “slashed its Bitcoin ETF exposure in Q1 2026,” cutting IBIT by approximately 71% and FBTC by approximately 60%, before adding: “Price discovery is back on the menu.” Park’s broader argument is not that one firm explicitly suppressed Bitcoin’s price, but that the ETF structure creates a complex market-making environment in which authorized participants can use creation and redemption mechanics, derivatives, and futures hedges in ways that may weaken the link between ETF demand and spot Bitcoin buying. In a prior post, he framed the issue as structural rather than conspiratorial. JANE STREET SLASHED ITS BITCOIN ETF EXPOSURE IN Q1 2026, CUTTING IBIT BY ~71% AND FBTC BY ~60%, ACCORDING TO ITS LATEST 13F FILING Price discovery is back on the menu https://t.co/ed41KhlQC4 — Jeff Park (@dgt10011) May 13, 2026 “The short answer is that no AP explicitly suppresses Bitcoin price,” Park wrote. “What the AP structure can suppress is the integrity of the price discovery mechanism itself. Those are not the same thing—but the second is arguably more consequential than the first.” Related Reading: Here’s When Bitcoin Could Reach $10 Million Under Power Law Model That distinction matters for the bullish interpretation. If Jane Street’s reported Bitcoin ETF exposure has already been reduced substantially, some traders may read the filing as evidence that a large source of ETF-related pressure has been partially cleared. Parker went further, suggesting Jane Street “likely doesn’t want to be short BTC forever” and that observers should “look for them to begin re-accumulating in Q2.” The thesis is speculative, but it is not without a clear market logic. If a large trading firm had been involved in strategies that created persistent ETF or derivatives pressure, a reduction in reported Bitcoin ETF holdings, combined with any eventual unwind of related positions, could shift the market’s balance back toward cleaner spot-led price discovery. That is the bullish setup implied by the posts: not simply that Jane Street sold, but that the trade may already have played out. At the same time, Jane Street did not exit crypto exposure broadly. The firm increased holdings in BlackRock and Fidelity Ether ETFs and added to positions in Riot Platforms, Coinbase, and Galaxy Digital, while trimming Strategy and several Bitcoin mining names. At press time, BTC traded at $79,783. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s dominance over the wider crypto market has grown noticeably stronger in 2026, and new data suggests the reason comes down to where institutional money is — and isn’t — going. Related Reading: Crypto Firm Exodus Drains 63% Of Its Bitcoin Reserves As Q1 Loss Doubled Year Over Year Altcoin Season Loses Steam Analysts tracking market behavior say the expected rotation from Bitcoin into smaller altcoins has not materialized the way it did in previous bull cycles. The social buzz and speculative energy that once drove traders toward low-cap coins have both faded. According to data from Bitwise, the broader crypto market’s appetite for risk has fallen sharply since October 2025 — a shift that appears to be reshaping how capital moves across the space. LATEST: Quantum signal flashes red, says Bitcoin risk appetite has collapsed since October 2025.$BTC premium plunged from +30% to near 0%, signaling Alts rotation is officially over. The post-quantum narrative failed to spark any real altcoin adoption & institutions are… pic.twitter.com/KcBkyA4JpF — Bitcoin Archive (@BitcoinArchive) May 12, 2026 Traders who profit from BTC rallies have historically moved those gains into altcoins, chasing bigger returns further down the market cap ladder. That pattern, reports indicate, is breaking down. The altcoin market is seeing slower inflows, and the enthusiasm that defined past cycles has been replaced by a more cautious posture. Bitcoin Premium Falls From 30% To Near Zero The clearest signal of this shift sits in the Bitcoin premium metric. Data shows the premium climbed above 30% between September and November 2025, then began a steady decline that carried into 2026. By recent readings, it had fallen to nearly 0% — a steep drop that analysts say reflects weakened interest in speculative crypto activity. The so-called quantum signal, which had shown positive momentum toward the end of 2025, has since turned negative. Based on reports from Bitwise, that reversal lines up with a broader pullback in risk-taking across digital asset markets. Investors, it appears, are not chasing returns the way they were just months ago. Institutions Are Parking Money In BTC One reason BTC is holding up while altcoins cool is the continued preference among institutional investors for the largest cryptocurrency by market cap. In periods of uncertainty, reports note, large investors tend to move toward assets with deeper liquidity and more established market infrastructure — and BTC fits that profile better than most. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Awaken As Rare Golden Cross Signal Flashes On Charts The anticipated wave of institutional interest in altcoins, partly tied to expectations around quantum computing developments, did not gain the traction many had expected. Instead, institutional capital has been concentrating in Bitcoin, reinforcing its position at the top of the market. Whether that concentration holds through the rest of 2026 remains an open question. But for now, the data points in one direction: Bitcoin is being treated less like a speculative bet and more like a store of value — and the rest of the market is feeling the difference. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

MARA Holdings still has in its coffers 35,303 Bitcoin valued at roughly $2.84 billion, making it the fourth largest corporate Bitcoin holder in the world. But that position comes after the company sold a significant chunk of its reserves — and investors took notice. Related Reading: Crypto Firm Exodus Drains 63% Of Its Bitcoin Reserves As Q1 Loss Doubled Year Over Year A Rough Quarter By The Numbers MARA’s stock dropped 5% during Tuesday’s trading session, touching an intraday low of $11.74 before closing around $12.65. After-hours trading brought another 1.85% decline. The sell-off followed the release of the company’s first-quarter 2026 earnings, which showed a net loss of $1.26 billion — more than double the $533 million loss recorded in the same period last year. Revenue came in at $175 million, down 18% from a year ago, partly due to falling Bitcoin prices. During the quarter, MARA sold 20,880 BTC worth nearly $1.5 billion. A large portion of those sales — 15,133 BTC sold between March 4 and March 25 for about $1 billion — went toward buying back convertible notes. About $1 billion of the proceeds were used to reduce the company’s convertible debt load from $3.3 billion to $2.3 billion, a reduction of roughly 30%. That transaction generated a $71 million gain from debt extinguishment. Shifting Away From Mining MARA is making a clear move away from aggressive Bitcoin mining. Officials said the company does not plan to make large-scale purchases of ASIC mining hardware going forward. About 90% of its non-hosted mining capacity can reportedly be converted into AI and IT infrastructure. The company said its strategy centers on placing new infrastructure alongside existing Bitcoin mining operations, allowing it to generate revenue from power assets while drawing on its operational experience in mining. The company is also cutting 15% of its workforce, a move expected to save $12 million annually. The biggest move, though, is the acquisition of Long Ridge Energy from FTAI Infrastructure. The deal is valued at close to $1.5 billion, including about $785 million in debt, and marks the largest acquisition in MARA’s history. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Awaken As Rare Golden Cross Signal Flashes On Charts Long Ridge operates a 505-megawatt combined-cycle gas power plant in Ohio and sits on more than 1,600 contiguous acres. MARA projects $144 million in annualized EBITDA from the asset. Stock Performance In Context Despite Tuesday’s drop, MARA shares are up 30% over the past month. Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, continues to buy while MARA sells and restructures — a contrast that reflects how differently companies in the space are approaching the current environment. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin price started a fresh decline below the $80,500 zone. BTC is consolidating and might struggle to stay above the $78,800 support. Bitcoin failed to stay above $80,500 and extended losses. The price is trading below $80,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $80,700 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might extend losses if it stays below the $80,500 and $81,200 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Further Bitcoin price failed to stay above the $80,500 support zone. BTC remained in a bearish zone and extended losses below the $80,000 level. There was a move below the $79,500 level. The price even dipped below $79,000. A low was formed at $78,720 and the price is now consolidating losses. There was a minor increase above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $81,250 swing high to the $78,720 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $80,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $79,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $80,000 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $81,250 swing high to the $78,720 low. The first key resistance is near the $80,500 level. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $80,700 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. A close above the $80,700 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $81,200 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $82,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $82,500. Downside Extension In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $80,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $79,200 level. The first major support is near the $78,800 level. The next support is now near the $78,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $76,200 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $75,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $79,200, followed by $78,800. Major Resistance Levels – $80,000 and $80,700.

The previous Bitcoin market top may not have been marked by a dramatic crash or obvious sell signal, but by a highly coordinated, sophisticated wave of whale distribution. While most participants were driven by optimism and bullish conviction, large holders were quietly offloading positions in a way that blended seamlessly into normal market activity. How Whale Distributed Bitcoin Without Triggering Warning Signals The Bitcoin market top last year was less obvious than in past cycles, unfolding through a quiet, highly coordinated wave of whale distribution. ForeDex on X revealed that at a time when BTC participants were filled with optimism and conviction, a whale moved roughly 30,000 BTC to exchanges over 10 days via Galaxy Digital. Meanwhile, most market participants failed to recognize the significance of these flows. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply Shock: 100,000 BTC Vanish From Exchanges In Under 90 Days ForeDex explained that BTC was split into smaller amounts and distributed across multiple exchanges, unlike previous cycles. In earlier market tops, large flows often ranging from several thousand to 10,000 BTC were sent directly to platforms such as Coinbase, Binance, or Gemini in a single transaction, making these movements relatively easy to detect. However, after the ETF approval, market structure and trading behavior became more sophisticated. As selling pressure was distributed across different exchanges, the historical exchange-specific sell premium became less reliable. Even the well-known Coinbase-Binance Gap data no longer shows these traces as clearly as it used to. Ultimately, BTC market dynamics are evolving, and new patterns are constantly emerging. Even if some participants had identified unusual flows, the strong optimism and conviction at the peak would likely have led many to dismiss them. Bitcoin Could Face Another Liquidity Sweep To The Downside Bitcoin is showing signs of weakening market structure, with price forming lower highs following the rejection at $82,000. Crypto analyst Kaz has noted that one of the biggest warning signs is the sharp rise in Open Interest (OI) that is aggressively occurring, and both perpetual and spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) are trending downward, indicating bullish traders are already starting to get squeezed out of the market. Related Reading: 14,600 Bitcoin Sold in Profit in One Day: Here Is How BTC’s Own Structure Broke It Below $80K At the same time, bears appear to be actively building short positions, a continuous liquidation that is adding fuel to the decline. Kaz argues that additional long positions could be flushed out, as perpetual and spot CVDs are currently declining, and there is still long liquidation at the downside. Currently, BTC is retesting the $80,000 level with the highest OI bearish positioning seen at this level so far. In the bullish case, if price holds above the $80,000 zone and CVD starts rising, the market could trigger a short squeeze back toward the $82,000 resistance. In the bearish scenario, a loss of the $80,000 level, combined with current weak internals, could lead to a liquidity sweep of the lows, with price potentially moving toward testing the point of weak order (pwO). Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is hovering just below $80,000 as President Donald Trump arrives in Beijing for a high-stakes meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, turning the visit into a live test of whether the crypto market’s latest risk rally has enough support to survive a difficult macro week. The trip comes as traders are already contending with […]
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Bitcoin’s recent price behavior has been everything the bulls hoped for, and that may be precisely the problem. Since bottoming out around $63,000 in early April, Bitcoin has posted a sequence of higher highs and higher lows and has now reclaimed $80,000. The structure looks bullish. However, technical analysis shows that Bitcoin has now entered into deceptive territory. Bitcoin’s Uptrend May Be Hiding A Compression Phase Bitcoin’s price action is now forming an interesting but deceptive pattern. The pattern in question is a rising wedge that has been forming on Bitcoin’s daily chart since February. The setup was highlighted by crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader, who described Bitcoin’s current pattern as “the most deceptive pattern in crypto.” His chart places Bitcoin near the upper end of the wedge, with the $84,000 area acting as a key rejection zone. Related Reading: XRP’s Current Predicament Is Only Temporary; These Factors Will Drive It To $18 A rising wedge is formed when price action grinds upward along two converging trendlines, printing higher highs and higher lows in a narrowing channel. The pattern resembles an upward price trend where the market constantly hits higher levels and never falls below prior price lows before bouncing back on the surface. However, a rising wedge is known to resolve more bearishly than bullishly. The chart shared by Merlijn shows Bitcoin pushing upward inside this structure, with the upper wedge boundary sitting around $84,000. That area is the zone where bulls may face their biggest test. That makes the next move around the $80,000 to $84,000 area very important. A clean move above the upper boundary would weaken the bearish wedge argument. A rejection around $84,000, followed by a breakdown under $80,000, would open up the path to lower price levels. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @MerlijnTrader On X Crash Below $60,000? The $80,000 price level is now carrying both psychological and technical weight. Bitcoin recently reclaimed this level for the first time in months, helped by improving market sentiment.  Merlijn’s chart turns that same level into the breakdown trigger. According to the outlook, a break below $80,000 would confirm weakness inside the wedge and open the way for a move down to $56,000. This does not mean Bitcoin is guaranteed to fall there, but it shows where the bearish projection comes from if the wedge resolves to the downside. Related Reading: Pundit Predicts When The XRP Price Will Rally To $12 At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $80,920 after moving between $79,879 and $81,227 over the past 24 hours. This narrow range shows that buyers are still active around the $80,000 level, preventing a clean breakdown below the zone for now.  The price action has also kept Bitcoin from showing any major sign of distribution, as support continues to hold near the lower end of the range. All that needs to happen now for bullish momentum is a weekly close above $84,000. However, a weekly close below $80,000 could shift the setup in favor of the bearish path. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Physicist Giovanni Santostasi says Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory is not best understood as an S-curve, speculative bubble, or simple exponential trend, but as a power law similar to patterns found in cities, biology and other natural systems. Speaking with Nathalie Brunell on the May 12 episode of the Coin Stories podcast, the director of the Scientific Bitcoin Institute argued that Bitcoin’s historical data points to roughly $1 million per coin in about eight years and $10 million in roughly 20 years. Santostasi explained his Bitcoin Power Law thesis in detail. His core claim is that Bitcoin’s price has followed a nonlinear mathematical relationship with time since the network’s early trading history. In his formulation, Bitcoin’s price is proportional to time raised to a power of roughly 5.8 to 5.9, often rounded to six. That exponent, he said, is not just a curve-fitting artifact but a “fingerprint” of the system. “With bitcoin we found a similar relationship where the price is proportional to the time,” Santostasi said. “So the age of bitcoin, how many years, you can measure it in days, you can measure it in years. And then you take the power and that power is 5.8.” Bitcoin Is Growing Like A City He acknowledged that Bitcoin remains volatile in the short term, with wars, crises and liquidity shocks producing large deviations. But he argued those moves are oscillations around a deeper trajectory. Related Reading: Bitcoin Exits ‘Panic Zone,’ But Capital Inflows Remain Weak According to Santostasi, Bitcoin’s power law currently implies a central price level around $120,000, while the market has recently traded below that level. He said the lower statistical band, which he described as a kind of floor, is currently near $56,000 to $57,000. He also cited a correlation coefficient of 0.97 for the power law fit, arguing that only around 3% of Bitcoin’s long-term price variation is not described by the model. A key part of Santostasi’s thesis is that Bitcoin behaves more like a networked organism than a corporate asset. He compared Bitcoin to cities, which he said grow through bottom-up interaction and tend to endure far longer than corporations. Cities, in his telling, follow power laws because their value emerges from networks of people freely interacting, building and exchanging information. “Bitcoin is like a city,” Santostasi said. “Bitcoin is like tooth and nails and thorns and shells, these natural forms. To me, if you can simplify this message — and because it’s not poetry, it’s science actually, it’s based on data — it is one of the most convincing orange-pilling arguments that you can make.” The physicist contrasted that with exponential growth, which he associated with systems that expand quickly but eventually hit resource limits. He cited corporations as an example, saying most die within 150 years, while cities such as Rome can persist for millennia. That distinction led to one of the more provocative implications of the discussion: corporations backed by Bitcoin, Santostasi suggested, could theoretically become more city-like in their durability. “This is one of the reasons why I want Saylor to start adopting this language of a power law,” he said, referring to Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor. “He could say exactly that. We are turning corporations into cities.” Related Reading: Arthur Hayes Says The Bitcoin Bull Market Has Begun: $126,000 Is Next Santostasi also argued that Bitcoin’s address growth supports the thesis. He said Bitcoin addresses have grown as a power law with time cubed, while price reacts to address growth roughly according to a square relationship, similar to Metcalfe’s Law. Combining those two relationships, he said, produces the observed price relationship of time to the sixth power. “If you double the number of addresses, the price goes up to four,” Santostasi said. “If you triple it, it goes to nine. So it’s a power law with the square.” That framework also leads Santostasi to reject the common view that Bitcoin adoption should be modeled primarily as an S-curve, like refrigerators, televisions or other consumer technologies. Those products, he argued, are not networks in the same way Bitcoin is. Bitcoin’s social, monetary and technical layers make it closer to the internet or a city than to a household appliance. Still, Santostasi stopped short of presenting the forecast as certainty. Asked how confident he is that Bitcoin will reach roughly $1 million per coin in about eight years and $10 million in roughly 20 years, he put the probability near 90%, while leaving room for failure conditions. He said continued capital inflows, larger institutional participation and new pools of capital are necessary for the path to remain intact. At press time, BTC traded at $80,963. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Metaplanet posted a $725.6 million net loss driven by bitcoin mark-to-market valuation markdowns even as operating profit rose 283%.

As Bitcoin (BTC) attempts to hold $80,000 as support, some market analysts have warned about a crucial resistance area that could make or break the flagship crypto’s bullish rally. Related Reading: Crypto Funds Extend Six-Week Streak With $858M Inflows On CLARITY Act Progress Bitcoin Bull Rally Meets Key Resistance In a Tuesday analysis, market watcher Ali Martinez highlighted a “crucial resistance barrier that has the potential to put an end to the recent Bitcoin bull rally” that has sent the price to its highest levels in months. He explained that BTC has been attempting to clear the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), near $82,500, for three consecutive days. A breakout above this level could trigger a rally toward the $94,000 area, Martinez affirmed, while a rejection could send the price to retest the 50-day SMA around $75,000. However, the failure to reclaim this level may suggest that the market “is struggling to find the follow-through volume needed for a breakout.” The analyst pointed out that a recent shift in miners’ behavior could reinforce the resistance area above. Over the past month, Bitcoin miners have been steadily taking profits, offloading over 3,400 BTC they’ve held since the $72,000 range to cover operational costs or lock in gains at the recent highs. “This added supply could strengthen the overhead resistance,” he affirmed. Meanwhile, retail and futures traders are “aggressively increasing their risk appetite,” with the Estimated Leverage Ratio currently at a yearly peak, indicating an overextended market reliant on borrowed funds. Most of this leverage is skewed toward long positions, creating liquidation walls at $75,000, $73,000, and $70,000, Martinez added, warning that if Bitcoin can’t flip the $82,500 resistance into support, “the market may look to flush this leverage by testing those lower levels.” BTC Poised For Another Correction? Analyst Rekt Capital offered a macro perspective, suggesting Bitcoin may fail to reclaim the crucial resistance and fall to new lows in the coming months. He highlighted BTC’s breakdown from its macro triangle base around $82,500, which has sent the price retest the 50-month EMA. Historically, when Bitcoin breaks down from its macro triangle, the price retests its 50-month EMA as support and briefly bounces before dropping toward its bear market bottom. “On this occasion, (…) we’ve rebounded already. But history suggests that this rebound is going to be limited, and we’ll be losing the 50-month EMA as support and then turning it into resistance to transition into a cluster beneath it,” the analyst affirmed. Rekt Capital also emphasized that the 50-month EMA roughly aligns with the 2021 all-time high (ATH), which was a major resistance-turned-support area around the early 2024 ATH rally and opened the door to the 2025 run toward its latest ATH. Related Reading: Something Shocking Just Happened To The XRP Price, Analysts Are Using It To Make A Bold Prediction As Bitcoin retests this area as support once again and faces strong resistance around the macro triangle base, the analyst asserted that this rebound may be weaker, adding that history suggests the 50-month EMA support will likely be lost and turned into resistance. “That’s pretty compelling evidence to support the weaker rally thesis as well, because if we do reject from the confluent region of resistance, which is the macro downtrend and the macro triangle base, then indeed this rally (…) will be a lot lesser than the magnitude of that rally that we saw in 2024,” he concluded. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

Exodus Movement sold more than 1,000 Bitcoin in the first three months of 2026 to fund a push into financial technology, raising $73 million in the process. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Awaken As Rare Golden Cross Signal Flashes On Charts The crypto wallet company cut its Bitcoin holdings from 1,704 to 628 coins by March 31 — a reduction of roughly 63% — with nearly all the proceeds directed toward acquiring W3C Corp., the parent company of fintech firms Monavate and Baanx. Revenue Takes A Sharp Hit The Bitcoin sales came as Exodus reported a steep drop in earnings. Total revenue for the quarter ended March 31 fell to $22.7 million, down from $36 million during the same period a year ago — a decline of nearly 37%. Exchange aggregation, which accounts for the bulk of company income, took the hardest hit, falling almost $14 million as user trading activity slowed significantly. Monthly active users slipped from 1.6 million to 1.5 million year over year. Quarterly funded users dropped even more sharply, falling 22% to 1.4 million from 1.8 million. Exodus pointed to macroeconomic pressures — including revised Federal Reserve growth projections and uncertainty around tariff policy — as contributing factors. The company also warned that price swings in digital assets could continue to affect its results in coming quarters. Net Loss More Than Doubled The financial results reflected more than just a drop in trading. Exodus posted a net loss of $32 million for the quarter, compared to a nearly $13 million loss in Q1 2025. The company’s broader digital asset portfolio recorded a net loss of $36.4 million, driven by $76.8 million in unrealized losses, though partially offset by $40.4 million in realized gains on asset exchanges. On the balance sheet, cash and cash equivalents rose sharply. The company ended the quarter with nearly $73 million in cash, up from just $4.9 million at the close of 2025. New Products In The Pipeline Even as the core business contracted, Exodus rolled out a new product. XO Cash, a stablecoin toolkit built on Solana with payments company MoonPay, allows AI agents to make purchases through Visa’s payment network without exposing user private keys. Related Reading: Shiba Inu Bullish Momentum Explodes As Buying Pressure Intensifies Featured image from Getty Images/GeorgeManga, chart from TradingView

Ray Dalio has reopened one of crypto’s longest-running macro debates, arguing that Bitcoin still has not behaved like the safe-haven asset many investors expected it to become. The Bridgewater Associates founder said gold remains structurally superior as a reserve and crisis asset, drawing immediate pushback from Michael Saylor and several Bitcoin advocates. In a May 11 post on X, Dalio said Bitcoin “gets a lot of attention” but has not fulfilled the defensive portfolio role often assigned to it by supporters. His critique focused less on Bitcoin’s long-term price performance and more on market structure, privacy, correlation and reserve-asset adoption. “While Bitcoin gets a lot of attention, it hasn’t played the safe-haven role many expected. In my view, there are a few reasons why. First, Bitcoin lacks privacy. Transactions can be monitored and potentially controlled, which is why central banks aren’t looking to hold it.” Dalio then tied that transparency issue to Bitcoin’s behavior during market stress. “Second, it also has a high correlation with tech stocks. When investors get squeezed in other areas of their portfolio, they sell their Bitcoin to cover it. Third, it’s a relatively small and controllable market, whereas gold stands alone. There is only one gold.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Exits ‘Panic Zone,’ But Capital Inflows Remain Weak The argument places Bitcoin in the risk-asset camp rather than the sovereign reserve-asset camp. In Dalio’s framing, a safe haven is not defined by scarcity alone, but by how widely it is held, how independently it trades under pressure, and whether major institutions, especially central banks, are structurally willing to own it. “Ultimately, gold is more widely held, deeply established, and still plays a central role in the global system,” he wrote. That view is consistent with Dalio’s public stance over the past several years. In 2021, he called Bitcoin “one hell of an invention” and said there were few “alternative gold-like assets” at a time of rising demand for stores of value. But even then, he treated Bitcoin as an emerging, option-like monetary asset rather than a finished replacement for gold. More recently, Dalio has repeatedly favored gold over Bitcoin as a defensive asset. Business Insider reported in March 2026 that Dalio said Bitcoin would not seriously challenge gold as a safe haven, partly because central banks were unlikely to hold it as a reserve asset. Investopedia similarly reported that Dalio has acknowledged holding a small amount of crypto while continuing to prefer gold, citing concerns around privacy, government action and Bitcoin’s still-unproven role as a reserve currency. Bitcoin Community Reacts Michael Saylor, whose company Strategy has built its corporate identity around Bitcoin accumulation, rejected Dalio’s premise. “Gold is analog capital. Bitcoin is digital capital,” he wrote. “Transparency is a feature, not a bug, making BTC suitable as global collateral.” Saylor also argued that since Strategy adopted its Bitcoin standard on Aug. 10, 2020, Bitcoin had outperformed gold with a higher Sharpe ratio. Related Reading: Bitcoin Flashes Signal With 186% Average One-Year Return Other responses challenged different parts of Dalio’s thesis. Samson Mow disputed the claim that Bitcoin lacks privacy, writing that Dalio needed to “educate” himself. Mert Mumtaz, the Helius CEO, pointed instead toward Zcash, posting: “look into Zcash and thank me later.” Anchorage researcher David Lawant framed Bitcoin’s current limitations as part of a longer monetization process: “Could it also be that BTC is just newer and that the monetization process of a commodity in the free market can take a long time? If so, this is actually a positive for forward-looking holders. It’s where asymmetric upside ultimately lies.” Bitcoin-firm River took the argument in a more user-centric direction, saying Bitcoin is already a safe haven for people and businesses whose purchasing power is being eroded by central banks. The firm argued that gold remains relevant but cannot be used digitally, moved across borders with the same ease, or integrated into payments in the way Bitcoin can. At press time, BTC traded at $80,268. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Eight Satoshi-era wallets moved 10,000 Bitcoin each in July last year, triggering waves of speculation across crypto markets. Now, another old wallet has come back to life — and traders are watching closely. Related Reading: Swiss Bitcoin Reserve Effort Withdrawn After Resistance From Central Bank A Long Wait Ends On Sunday, a Bitcoin address that had not seen any activity since November 2013 suddenly moved its entire holdings to a new wallet. Blockchain tracking service Whale Alert detected the transfer at around 19:16 UTC. The coins, worth roughly $40 billion at current prices, had been sitting untouched for more than a decade. Back when they were first acquired, Bitcoin traded at a fraction of what it does today. The sending address — 1KAA8GGhVjjUjVTz1HKAjCyGN…. — transferred the funds to bc1qm6m6d33d02edr0k8yj9jgt027zl6d….. No one has publicly claimed ownership of the original wallet. No explanation for the move has been offered either. ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? A dormant address containing 500 $BTC (40,717,094 USD) has just been activated after 12.5 years (worth 482,898 USD in 2013)!https://t.co/OBUcZ1rXQg — Whale Alert (@whale_alert) May 10, 2026 Where The Coins Went The destination address does not match any known cryptocurrency exchange. That detail matters to traders. When large Bitcoin sums move directly to exchange wallets, it often signals a potential sale. In this case, no such connection has been found. Reports indicate the transfer may point to a security update, a redistribution of holdings across separate addresses, or simply a long-dormant holder deciding to act after years of staying put. Bitcoin crossed the $100,000 mark in late 2024 and has held near record highs since. Data shows that older wallets have been reactivating at a higher rate over the past year. Holders who bought Bitcoin during its earliest days and never touched their coins appear to be reviewing their positions as prices climb. A Pattern Emerging This latest move fits a pattern that blockchain analysts have tracked for months. Wallets tied to Bitcoin’s early years have been waking up with increasing frequency. The July wave — when multiple Satoshi-era addresses each moved 10,000 BTC for the first time in 14 years — drew significant attention from the crypto community. Sunday’s transfer adds to that trend. Related Reading: XRP Funding Rates Hint At Repeat Of $3.6 Surge Scenario Markets have not reacted sharply. But traders will keep a close eye on the newly activated address. Large amounts of Bitcoin moved by unknown wallets rarely go unnoticed, and any follow-up activity will likely draw immediate scrutiny from analysts monitoring the chain. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

Charles Schwab said it has made 'Schwab Crypto' available to the first wave of eligible retail clients starting Tuesday.

Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin’s bull market has already started, arguing that a new wave of dollar and yuan liquidity tied to AI spending, wartime policy and infrastructure rearmament could push BTC back to $126,000. In his May 12 essay, “The Butterfly Touch,” the BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom chief investment officer framed crypto’s next leg higher as a macro liquidity trade rather than a narrow digital-asset story. His central claim is that governments and banks in the US and China are being pushed toward looser credit conditions by three overlapping forces: the AI arms race, military escalation, and a global shift away from just-in-time supply chains. “The bull market began in earnest when the US attacked Iran on February 28th,” Hayes wrote, tying Bitcoin’s recent outperformance to what he sees as the start of a new political regime for money creation. Hayes Points To AI, War And Fiat Expansion Hayes argued that AI infrastructure spending has become a national-security priority in both Washington and Beijing. In his view, that makes monetary restraint politically difficult, because the US and China both see machine intelligence as strategically decisive. Related Reading: Bitcoin Flashes Signal With 186% Average One-Year Return He said the AI buildout is already moving beyond the cash flows of large technology companies and into the credit channel. That shift matters for crypto, Hayes argued, because banks and central banks will be pressured to support capital expenditure for data centers, electricity generation and AI infrastructure. “But in the here and now, dollar and yuan liquidity will continue to rise. And Bitcoin and crypto will benefit,” Hayes wrote. The essay leans heavily on the idea that AI investment is structurally inflationary and potentially self-reinforcing. Hayes invoked Jevons Paradox, arguing that cheaper intelligence will increase total compute consumption, and the “Red Queen Effect,” under which companies must keep spending because rival model improvements can quickly depreciate previous investment. In Hayes’ reading, the cycle ends only when markets reject a major AI financing event or when political rhetoric in the 2028 US presidential race turns sharply against AI-driven inflation. Until then, he expects credit to keep expanding. Bitcoin Target: $126,000 Hayes said Bitcoin bottomed earlier this year at $60,000 and argued that a return to $126,000 is now “a foregone conclusion.” He also identified $90,000 as a key level where he expects the rally to intensify, claiming that call over-writers could be forced to cover once the strike is breached. “I have no idea how high Bitcoin can go,” he wrote, adding that Maelstrom would take its portfolio to “maximum risk” unless conditions change materially. Related Reading: Bitcoin Exits ‘Panic Zone,’ But Capital Inflows Remain Weak His thesis is not limited to AI. Hayes also argued that the US-Iran conflict and disruptions to commodity flows could push governments outside the US to rethink their dependence on dollar financial assets. According to the essay, countries that previously stored surpluses in Treasuries or US equities may instead redirect capital toward defense, energy, pipelines, food reserves and other physical infrastructure. That shift, he argued, would leave US policymakers with an incentive to keep financial conditions easier than they otherwise would be. Hayes pointed to possible dollar swap lines and looser bank capital rules as tools that could offset foreign selling of dollar assets without forcing an abrupt market repricing. Hayes closed the essay with a more explicit risk-on message for crypto markets. He said it is “time to shitcoin,” naming Hyperliquid’s HYPE and Zcash’s ZEC as already-large positions, while identifying NEAR as his next preferred trade. The NEAR thesis, he said, will be expanded in his next essay and will focus on the privacy narrative combined with Near intents. Hayes argued that this could create “a positive cash flow situation for the protocol” and potentially reverse the token’s weak long-term price performance. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $80,680. Featured image created with DALL.E. chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price started a recovery wave above the $80,500 zone. BTC is consolidating and might aim for more gains if it clears the $81,500 resistance zone. Bitcoin managed to form a base above $80,000 and started a recovery wave. The price is trading above $80,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $81,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might gain bullish momentum if it settles above the $81,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Eyes Fresh Upside Break Bitcoin price remained supported above the $80,000 zone. BTC formed a base and settled above $80,500 to start a recovery wave. There was a move above the $80,650 and $80,800 levels. The bulls were able to push the price above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $82,100 swing high to the $79,844 low. However, the bears could be active near $81,250. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $81,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading above $80,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $80,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $81,250 level, the trend line, and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $82,100 swing high to the $79,844 low. The first key resistance is near the $82,000 level. A close above the $82,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $82,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $83,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $85,000. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $81,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $80,500 level. The first major support is near the $80,000 level. The next support is now near the $79,200 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $78,250 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $77,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $80,500, followed by $80,000. Major Resistance Levels – $81,500 and $82,000.

Peter Schiff thinks Strategy executive chairman and co-founder Michael Saylor is misleading retirees. The outspoken economist fired off a warning on X, asking how the SEC could allow Saylor to publicly describe STRC as suitable for retired investors whose main goals are low-risk wealth preservation and steady income. Related Reading: Shiba Inu Bullish Momentum Explodes As Buying Pressure Intensifies Schiff called it a violation of SEC antifraud and marketing rules. Strategy has not publicly responded to the criticism. A Preferred Stock Built Around Bitcoin The debate comes as Strategy pulled in over $206 million through its STRC perpetual preferred stock program. According to data from Bitcoin Treasuries’ ATM tracker on May 11, the company issued 2.12 million shares to generate those proceeds. At an average Bitcoin price of $81,471, that haul could buy roughly 2,536 BTC. The capital raise happened the same day Strategy announced it bought $43 million worth of Bitcoin — its first purchase after a one-week pause. The timing was no coincidence. STRC’s return to its $100 par value earlier in the session reopened the door for fresh share sales under the company’s at-the-money program. Trading volume told the story clearly. STRC recorded close to $445 million in daily volume on May 11, with the stock barely moving — it ranged from $99.99 to $100.01. That kind of price stability was the green light the program needed. How STRC Works The stock’s structure was designed by Saylor himself. Reports indicate STRC is built to hold steady at $100 per share, with dividend payouts that shift depending on where the stock trades. When the price dips below par, yields go up to pull investors back in. When shares trade at or above the target, the company can cut the payout and redirect capital toward Bitcoin purchases. STRC currently yields 11.5% annually, with the next ex-dividend date set for May 15. STRC had already shown signs of recovery on May 8, when it closed at $99.99 and climbed back to $100 in after-hours trading. Volume that day topped $218 million — a signal the stock was regaining footing before Monday’s full rebound. Related Reading: Nearly 80% Of Bitcoin Supply Hasn’t Moved As Long-Term Holders Tighten Grip Schiff’s Challenge Draws Attention Schiff’s objection cuts to a basic question about who STRC is for. The preferred stock is linked, at least indirectly, to Strategy’s ongoing Bitcoin accumulation strategy, which carries its own risks. That tension — between the stock’s structured, fixed-price design and the volatile asset it funds — sits at the center of the dispute. Strategy has built a model around raising equity capital and using the proceeds to buy Bitcoin. The STRC program is one of several instruments the company uses to keep that cycle running. With Monday’s raise added in, the machine is moving again. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView

The massive surge in the Bitcoin price since April 2026 is still viewed as part of a broader bear market phase, according to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant. While some market experts believe the rebound could signal a new bull run, CryptoQuant’s unrealized profit data show the numbers are nowhere near bull-market levels. Notably, as BTC’s value increases, rising selling pressure could threaten the cryptocurrency’s ongoing rally, potentially triggering a price breakdown.   Profit-Taking Hits Three-Month Highs After Bitcoin Price Surge Bitcoin’s rally to $82,000 on May 6 came as a shock to the broader digital asset market, as that was the first time the cryptocurrency had reached that level since late January 2026. Initially, BTC broke above $81,000 on May 5 and pushed toward $82,000 the next day, only to be rejected. Now, after the surge, Julio Monero, the Head of Research at CryptoQuant, believes that investors could be gearing up to take profit, potentially adding more volatility to the cryptocurrency’s price.  Related Reading: Here Are The Major Bitcoin Levels To Watch After Breaking $80,000 Monero said in an analysis report that Bitcoin holders realized daily profits of up to 14,600 BTC on May 4, marking the highest single-day figure since December 10, 2025. Net profits on a 30-day basis also surged, with holders realizing over 20,000 BTC. These numbers reinforce the analyst’s belief that selling pressure may be imminent. The CryptoQuant analyst also noted that Bitcoin has skyrocketed over 20% since the beginning of April, now trading around $80,000 after its latest rally. To some, this might look like a renewed and sustainable bull run. However, he described the move as a “bear market rally,” suggesting that Bitcoin remains within a broader bear trend despite recent price gains.  Monero also revealed that BTC’s price surges since April have been fueled by easing macroeconomic pressures and an earlier undervaluation, which kept its price depressed all through January to March 2026. He added that a sharp increase in demand for perpetual futures has helped prop up BTC’s price, suggesting that much of the buying is probably driven by leveraged traders rather than fresh spot accumulation. All of these developments appear to be pushing the cryptocurrency’s price upward despite social and whale sentiment still firmly in the Fear territory. At the same time, price score and volatility indicators are flashing Greed, signaling that BTC’s rally is likely being driven by price action alone, rather than any meaningful or real shift in how investors actually feel about the market.  Analyst Flags Upcoming Downside Risk For BTC In his report, Monero added that Bitcoin’s 30-day realized profit of over 20,000 BTC is still a long way from the 130,000 to 200,000 BTC range typically seen in bull markets. He believes the gap alone suggests the market could still have more pain ahead. Related Reading: Here’s The Next Major Bitcoin Resistance To Watch Out For Before A Crash Beyond the broader bear market and potential selling pressure, Monero also highlights specific warning signs that raise Bitcoin’s downside risk. He noted that while perpetual futures continue to climb, spot demand and exchange inflows remain weaker than expected. He described this setup as one that is “consistent with a rally that carries meaningful correction risk but has not yet reached a confirmed distributional peak.” Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator is flashing a green signal for the first time since March 2023. Here’s what it could mean for the asset. Bitcoin Now In “Early Bull” Phase On CryptoQuant’s Market Cycle Indicator As highlighted by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the CryptoQuant Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has signaled a shift for the cryptocurrency recently. This indicator tells us, as its name suggests, about the phase of the cycle that BTC is potentially inside right now. Related Reading: SUI Surges 40%: Analytics Firm Explains What’s Driving The Rally The metric is based on CryptoQuant’s P&L Index, which combines the data of several key on-chain indicators to provide a single score for the network. The P&L Index’s interactions with its 365-day moving average (MA) are considered to correspond to phase shifts for BTC. The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator captures this relationship by tracking the difference between the two. When the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has a high value on either side of the scale, it means that the P&L Index is a significant distance above/below its average value from the past year. Such a trend can indicate that the asset is in an extreme phase. Similarly, the indicator being close to the zero mark can imply the market may be in a phase transition. Now, here is a chart that shows how the metric has looked for Bitcoin recently: As displayed in the above graph, the CryptoQuant Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator dropped to a deep negative value after the price crash at the start of February. This low in the metric coincided with an “Extreme Bear” phase reading (shaded in purple) for the market. The indicator stayed inside this zone only for a few brief instances; however, as the cryptocurrency quickly found some stability. Throughout March and April, the metric remained in the “Bear” territory (blue), suggesting that while the P&L Index wasn’t at an extreme distance below its 365-day MA, it was still low enough to correlate to bearish market conditions. As the price recovered, though, the Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator became less negative. And finally, with the latest continuation to the rally in May, it has left the Bear region altogether, with its value now implying an “Early Bull” phase (green). Historically, this phase has often been followed by bullish transitions for the sector. As the chart below highlights, the signal appeared in both 2019 and 2023. It’s also apparent in the graph, however, that a false signal also surfaced in March 2022. “Instead of confirming a new bull market, the signal marked a local top before Bitcoin continued its broader downtrend,” noted the quant. Given this, it now remains to be seen which of the two categories the new signal will fall into. Related Reading: Bitcoin Exits ‘Panic Zone,’ But Capital Inflows Remain Weak BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $80,700, down 0.5% in the last 24 hours. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin continues to trend higher, demonstrating resilience despite short-term volatility and pressure from resistance. Rather than displaying signs of heavy distribution or aggressive selling, the market has maintained a constructive structure with shallow pullbacks and consistent higher highs, reinforcing confidence in the broader bullish trend.  Strong Stability Of Bitcoin Above Key Levels Bitcoin is demonstrating significant resilience, according to analyst Sykodelic, who notes a lack of massive sell-offs or hard rejections. Instead, the market is producing higher highs following only minor pullbacks. BTC has successfully cleared multiple key levels and is currently consolidating to build the strength necessary for its next major expansion. Related Reading: Top Analyst Confirms The Bearish Target: Bitcoin Could Ease Down To $40,000 A pivotal technical milestone has been reached, as Bitcoin has remained above the Bull market support band for ten consecutive days. This zone, which incorporates the true market mean and Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis, is now beginning to trend upward. This shift suggests that the primary trend is strengthening and providing a solid floor for current price action. BTC recently secured a daily close above the 200D EMA, a level that typically causes hard rejections in weak market structures. Sykodelic highlights that rather than failing at this resistance, Bitcoin is coiling up for another attempt.  The broader financial landscape has shifted into a risk-on environment, further supporting the bullish case for crypto assets. Bitcoin’s ability to repeatedly test and hold near the 200D EMA suggests that the path of least resistance is now to the upside.  Given this structural strength, Sykodelic anticipates that the $85,000 level will be breached, potentially within the current week. Such a move would represent a definitive breakout from the current range and signal the start of a more aggressive rally.  Lower Timeframe Price Action Remains Choppy And Unclear In a recent market update, analyst Minga noted that price action on the lower timeframes (LTF) is currently disordered, lacking the clean structure necessary for high-conviction trading. Following a rejection from the weekly open, the market’s bias leans bearish. However, for a sustained bearish continuation to materialize, the price must remain suppressed below the critical $82,100 resistance region. Related Reading: Bitcoin Open Interest Explodes Beyond 2025 All-Time High Levels On the downside, the $80,600 level has been identified as the primary local support zone. As long as the market successfully defends this floor, a potential recovery toward the $84,000 target remains a viable scenario. This creates a narrow range where the immediate trend is undecided, leaving the asset caught between a vital weekly resistance and a firm local support. Given the current lack of structural clarity, Minga suggests that the most prudent move is to remain patient for the market to provide more definitive confirmation regarding its directional intent for the remainder of the week. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Ethereum’s price has lagged behind Bitcoin at key moments, retail confidence is low, and every failed breakout has given critics another reason to argue that ETH has lost its place. However, some market experts are not buying that idea.  One of those market experts taking the opposite side of that argument is Tom Lee. The Fundstrat co-founder and BitMine chairman has continued to defend Ethereum’s long-term setup, with his 2026 ETH target around $12,000. The $10,000 Ethereum Case Is Bigger Than One Prediction Tom Lee is one of the more vocal names in the bullish camp for Ethereum. The Fundstrat co-founder and BitMine chairman has reportedly projected Ethereum as high as $9,000 to $12,000 by the end of 2026, placing him among the experts who believe ETH’s current weakness is temporary. Related Reading: Ethereum Shortfall Says Price Is Headed Lower Unless This Happens Lee made the Ethereum year-end 2026 forecast at Consensus Miami, pairing the range with a Bitcoin projection of $150,000 to $200,000 and calling the crypto winter already over. It was a statement of confidence that stood out even in a conference room full of optimists. Lee’s company, Bitmine Immersion Technologies, holds over 5.18 million ETH valued around $12.07 billion, a position built in less than a year at an estimated cost of around $230 million per tranche each week. This accumulation trend by Bitmine has been repeatedly compared to Strategy’s Bitcoin accumulation playbook, and Lee has leaned into it.  Interestingly, the $10,000-plus Ethereum prediction is not limited to Lee. Analyst Crypto Patel offered a complementary set of drivers in a post on X, projecting an Ethereum price of around $10,000 to $15,000 this cycle.  Another crypto analyst called Celal Kucuker also shared a bullish Ethereum outlook on X on May 9, laying out a long-term roadmap that places ETH on course for a possible move above $24,000. Why Are Market Experts Predicting Ethereum Price Above $10,000? Market experts are pointing to various reasons as to why Ethereum is going to break above $10,000. For instance, Crypto Patel’s prediction was built around a string of institutional developments, including BlackRock’s filing for tokenized money market funds on Ethereum, JPMorgan’s MONY fund going live on the network, and BlackRock’s BUIDL fund reaching $2.85 billion to become the largest real-world asset product on any blockchain. Related Reading: Market Analyst Predicts Bitcoin And Ethereum Prices For The Next 3 Quarters Tom Lee has made a similar argument, with his Ethereum outlook based on Wall Street’s growing move into blockchain infrastructure. According to Lee, the next big move in markets won’t be led by stocks. It’ll be driven by crypto, Bitcoin and Ethereum in particular. This is why the predictions above $10,000 are not coming from one single angle. Some experts are focused on institutional adoption, others are focused on tokenization and stablecoins, and some are reading Ethereum’s long-term chart structure as a sign that the asset still has room for a major cycle rally. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com

Dominance peaked near 62%–63% last year before a sustained drawdown through late 2025, bottoming near 54%–55%.

Analysts believe Bitcoin may still have significant upside ahead, pointing out that a rare signal has appeared on a key valuation metric for the first time in roughly two years — and history suggests it could mark the start of a major price run. Related Reading: Shiba Inu Bullish Momentum Explodes As Buying Pressure Intensifies A Critical Level In Play At around $82,500, Bitcoin is bumping up against its 200-day moving average, a line that traders closely watch. Breaking above it could end months of downward pressure. Failing to hold it, analysts warn, could send prices sliding back toward $50,000. The stakes are high, and the outcome of this test may shape Bitcoin’s direction for months to come. The focus, though, goes beyond simple price charts. A metric called the Market Value to Realized Value ratio — or MVRV — is on the verge of printing what analysts call a golden cross, a crossover event where the ratio moves above its 200-day exponential moving average. CryptoQuant analyst CW8900 flagged the signal over the weekend, calling it a “representative trend reversal signal” and a bullish indicator. A golden cross between the $BTC MVRV Ratio and the 200D EMA line is imminent. This signal is a representative trend reversal signal and is a bullish indicator. A golden cross is about to occur again following the dead cross last August. Another bullish signal for $BTC is… pic.twitter.com/13z6HvNiGA — CW (@CW8900) May 10, 2026 An earlier golden cross in late April — when the 30-day simple moving average of Bitcoin’s MVRV crossed above its 90-day equivalent — had already prompted the analyst to declare that Bitcoin had “completely turned to a bullish trend.” What Past Signals Showed The last time this specific MVRV crossover appeared was just after Bitcoin’s 2022 cycle low. What followed was a 90% price surge, from around $16,300 up to $31,000 in early 2023. A second occurrence in September 2023 preceded an even bigger move — a roughly 400% rally that eventually carried Bitcoin to its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025. Those precedents are fueling optimism. Data from Glassnode adds another layer to the picture. The short-term holder cost basis — the average entry price for investors who have held Bitcoin for fewer than 155 days — shows a “heated” band at $92,000 and an “overheated” band at $104,000. Based on that data, Bitcoin has room to run before reaching historically stretched territory. Related Reading: Nearly 80% Of Bitcoin Supply Hasn’t Moved As Long-Term Holders Tighten Grip Analysts Signal A Bigger Move Ahead Multiple analysts are pointing to broader technical setups as well. Analyst Shib Spain noted that Bitcoin recently broke above a multi-month downtrend line on the weekly chart, a move reinforced by a bullish MACD crossover. “Bitcoin’s huge breakout is coming,” the analyst posted on X. Another analyst, known as Moustache, cited the Bitcoin market cap and its Relative Strength Index bouncing off multi-year support levels on the monthly chart. “Prices will go much, much higher,” the analyst wrote, adding that “something big” lies ahead. Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView

MARA's strategic pivot towards AI and energy infrastructure highlights a shift in leveraging digital assets for diversified growth and stability.
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