A growing share of Bitcoin supply has slipped underwater, with CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost arguing that the market is now sitting much closer to historical bear-phase conditions than to a confirmed bull trend. His latest charts show 43% of Bitcoin supply held in UTXOs is currently in loss, leaving just 57% in profit. Darkfost is looking at the distribution of supply across Bitcoin’s unspent transaction outputs, a way of tracking how much coin supply is sitting above or below cost basis. In his reading, that metric has reached a zone that has historically marked the boundary between advancing bull markets and broader corrections. “Roughly one out of two investors is currently at a loss. More precisely, this refers to the supply held within each UTXO on Bitcoin. At the moment, 43% of that supply is in loss,” he wrote on X. He added that “historically, as the histogram shows, we usually see around 75% of the supply in profit,” describing that level as a “rough boundary between a bull trend and a market correction.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Must Not Drop Below $63,700, Analyst Warns That framing is central to the thesis. When the share of supply in profit rises back above roughly 75%, Darkfost said, bull trends have typically “confirmed and accelerated.” When more supply starts falling into loss, the opposite tends to happen: corrections deepen, confidence weakens and the market begins to resemble prior bear-market structures. With Bitcoin now at 57% supply in profit, he said conditions look “closer to those seen during deep bear market phases.” Still, he did not present the current setup as a one-way collapse. Darkfost said the market is showing signs of stabilization, which he linked to the current consolidation phase. But he also warned that the process may not be finished. “It is still possible that the market moves lower in order to shake out LTHs further and push the share of supply in loss toward around 45%, a level that has been reached during previous bear markets,” he wrote. Related Reading: Bitcoin Big-Money On The Move: Exchange Whale Ratio Spikes To 0.6 Macro Backdrop Weighs On Bitcoin His second chart ties that on-chain deterioration to a macro backdrop that has become less supportive for risk assets. As tensions around the Strait of Hormuz intensified, Darkfost argued, oil’s rally has added another layer of pressure to Bitcoin. “Since the beginning of the year, oil has gained more than 60%, a dramatic increase reflecting market concerns over the geopolitical situation,” he wrote. “This is not surprising, given that the Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 20% of global daily oil exports and nearly 35% of oil transported by sea. Any incident that blocks the strait or disrupts transit therefore has an immediate impact on oil prices.” He extended that argument beyond energy markets. Higher oil prices, he said, feed directly into inflation expectations and broader financial-market stress, a combination that has historically not favored speculative assets. “For a volatile and risky asset like Bitcoin, this type of environment is unfavorable,” Darkfost wrote. “Historically, periods when oil prices regain strength often coincide with BTC end-of-cycle phases. These moments also signal geopolitical tensions, which are not conducive to risk-taking or exposure to more speculative assets.” Taken together, the two charts sketch a market that is not yet definitively in a bear trend but is drifting toward a zone where that label becomes harder to dismiss. The immediate question is whether Bitcoin can rebuild the share of supply back into profit and reclaim the historical 75% threshold, or whether macro stress and further long-term-holder selling push the market deeper into loss territory first. At press time, BTC traded at $67,730. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Japan's benchmark Nikkei has plunged 7% after Monday's market open, while South Korea's KOSPI has dropped 7.9%.
Cryptocurrencies defied a sweeping global market selloff on Monday as a catastrophic oil supply shock and escalating U.S.-Iran tensions sent equities tumbling, with Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP each posting modest gains even as Wall Street futures pointed to one of the worst openings in recent memory. Crypto Holds as Equities Crater Bitcoin traded at $66,124.97, …
Bitcoin price started a fresh decline below $68,500 and $68,000. BTC is now consolidating and might struggle to start a recovery wave above $68,500. Bitcoin started a fresh decline after it settled above the $69,500 zone. The price is trading below $68,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at $68,900 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $65,500 and $65,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Starts Another Decline Bitcoin price failed to extend its increase above the $68,500 zone. BTC started a fresh decline after it settled below the $68,000 support zone. The bears pushed the price below $67,500 and $67,200. Besides, there was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at $68,900 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Finally, the price tested the $65,500 zone. A low was formed at $65,646, and the price is now consolidating losses. Bitcoin is now trading below $68,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $65,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $67,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $67,600 level and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $74,062 swing high to the $65,646 low. A close above the $67,600 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $68,800 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $68,800 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $69,850 or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $74,062 swing high to the $65,646 low. More Losses In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $68,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $65,500 level. The first major support is near the $65,000 level. The next support is now near the $63,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $62,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $61,200, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $65,500, followed by $65,000. Major Resistance Levels – $68,000 and $68,800.
An on-chain data expert has identified a critical level that the Bitcoin price must not break, or it could be at risk of a significant downturn. Critical Levels For BTC Price: Alphractal CEO On Saturday, March 7, Alphractal founder and CEO Joao Wedson revealed on the social media platform X that the $63,700 level is a crucial support level for the Bitcoin price. The crypto expert analyzed why this price level is critical to the long-term health of the flagship cryptocurrency and other relevant levels to watch. Related Reading: Pundit Says XRP Price Could Reach $1,000 By End Of 2026 If This Happens This on-chain evaluation is based on the Fibonacci-adjusted Market Mean Price, which represents the cost basis, on average, of all Bitcoin holders. This indicator shows BTC’s average cost basis, adjusted with specific Fibonacci ratios; it exhibits mathematical levels of extension or retracement around the BTC average holder’s cost. As observed in the chart above, $63,700 is the next most relevant level for the Bitcoin price, per the Fibonacci-adjusted Market Mean Price. Wedson noted that the premier cryptocurrency cannot afford to break below this key on-chain level, else its price risks embarking on a downward journey on the charts. According to the Alphractal founder, the Bitcoin price could fall to the immediate support cushion around $57,000 if it loses the crucial $63,700. However, there is a chance that the market leader could fall even further to the next Fibonacci-adjusted Market Mean Price around $52,400. In the case where Bitcoin price fails to hold above either of the aforementioned support levels, Wedson identified the $48,700 as the worst-case scenario. A drop to this support level would represent an almost 30% move from the current price point. Wedson noted in his post: It is important to note that these levels are dynamic and update daily, as they adjust according to investor behavior on the blockchain. Wedson appears to have identified the $48,700 as a possible bottom for the premier cryptocurrency in its current bearish phase. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, BTC is valued at around $67,330, reflecting an over 1% price decline in the past 24 hours. With a sloppy performance so far in the first quarter of 2026, the market leader is down by nearly 50% from the current all-time high of around $126,080. Related Reading: Bitcoin Losing Strength — $66,000 Now The Line Between Recovery And Crash Featured image by DALL-E, chart from TradingView
A Blockstream executive made waves on social media Saturday with a striking comparison: US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have pulled in roughly the same amount of cumulative investor money as gold ETFs collected over their first 15 years — and Bitcoin did it in less than two. Related Reading: Stablecoin Market Breaks Records — USDC Controls 70% Of $1.8 Trillion Volume The Numbers Behind The Claim Fernando Nikolić, Blockstream’s director of marketing, posted the observation on X, adding that the milestone came during a period when Bitcoin had dropped 46% from its peak and spent several months trending downward. His point was that institutional money kept flowing into Bitcoin products even as prices fell hard. The claim drew attention because gold ETFs had a significant head start in the market — more than a decade — before Bitcoin products even existed. spot bitcoin ETFs matched 15 years of cumulative gold ETF inflows in under two years gold had a fifteen year head start and bitcoin caught it in twenty months absolute cinema ???? and this happened during a 46% drawdown btw during five red months while most of your timeline… pic.twitter.com/TuK5E2WZsq — Fernando Nikolić ???????? ???? (@basedlayer) March 8, 2026 The data backing the broader story comes from SoSoValue, which tracks daily and weekly flows into US spot crypto ETFs. According to that data, Bitcoin ETFs brought in around $568 million this week. The prior week saw roughly $787 million come in. Back-to-back positive weeks like that haven’t happened since early October last year — a stretch of about five months during which money was consistently leaving these funds. Before the recent stretch of inflows, the bleeding was significant. Reports indicate Bitcoin ETFs shed approximately $3.8 billion across five straight weeks of net withdrawals. The worst single week came around January 30, when investors pulled out close to $1.50 billion in one stretch. Day-By-Day, The Picture Gets Messier The weekly totals look clean. The daily breakdown does not. This week, Bitcoin ETFs took in $458 million on Monday, another $225 million on Tuesday, and a strong $462 million on Wednesday. Then the direction flipped. Thursday brought $228 million in outflows, and Friday saw close to $350 million leave the funds. The week ended positive, but just barely held together in the final sessions. Ether ETFs followed a similar pattern on a smaller scale. The funds recorded their second straight week of net inflows, collecting around $23.56 million after posting a little over $80 million the prior week. That two-week run marks the first consecutive weekly gains for Ether products since early October. Before that, five uninterrupted weeks of withdrawals drained more than $1.38 billion from those funds, with the week ending January 23 alone accounting for roughly $611 million in redemptions. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETFs Bleed $349M In A Day As Whales Dump, Small Buyers Step In: Analysts A Rebound With Uneven Footing Two positive weeks for both Bitcoin and Ether ETFs signal a shift, but the daily choppiness tells a more complicated story. Large inflows early in the week gave way to sizable redemptions by Thursday and Friday — a pattern that suggests some investors remain cautious even as fresh money enters. Featured image from Online Casinos, chart from TradingView
Following a rollercoaster performance during the past week, Bitcoin has had a somewhat stable price action throughout the weekend. With eyes on the escalating tensions in the Middle East, it’s been a little challenging to determine the future trajectory of the crypto market. Nevertheless, the technical and on-chain structure of the premier cryptocurrency suggests that the bear market is still fully on. In fact, the latest on-chain evaluation suggests that the price of Bitcoin is still vulnerable to downside volatility. BTC Price Preparing For Another Round Of Bearish Momentum? In a new post on the X platform, on-chain analyst Boris argued that the Bitcoin price remains within market structures that ultimately lead to downside movements. This observation is based on the rising long-term holder (LTH) Active Supply Ratio, indicating an increasing level of activity within the LTH supply. Related Reading: Analyst Shares Timeline For When A New Bitcoin Bull Run Will Begin This Year According to Boris, volatility typically emerges within the long-term holder supply before major upward price movements. This phase is characterized by the strategic distribution of Bitcoin to the right locations in preparation for market activity. Boris said: As the market rises, these coins are gradually distributed to meet demand. When demand begins to weaken, the market typically transitions into a sideways structure, allowing the distribution process to continue. Now, the Bitcoin market tends to enter a downward move once the distribution phase is complete and fresh positions are established. For instance, since the start of this increase in LTH activity, the price of BTC has fallen from around $95,000 to nearly $60,000. Interestingly, the Bitcoin price decline has not reversed the upward trend in the long-term holder supply, implying that downside movement is still a major possibility. “Even if we see upward movements in the coming weeks, these are likely to represent a liquidity illusion occurring within the broader distribution phase,” Boris said. The analyst noted that although the $60,000–$62,000 range appears to be a support zone, the current market structure suggests that this region may simply be acting as a liquidity generation zone within a redistribution phase. A liquidity generation zone (or liquidity zone) typically refers to a key technical area with a concentration of trading orders, typically stop losses and limit orders. Boris concluded that, based on the current data evidence, downward price movements toward the end of the year seem to be the more probable scenario for Bitcoin. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $67,628, reflecting a 1% decline in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETFs Bleed $349M In A Day As Whales Dump, Small Buyers Step In: Analysts Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has fallen back below $70,000 as selling pressure continues to dominate among crypto traders. Notably, there is currently little sign of strong buying demand that could stop further downside and the current structure still leaves room for a Bitcoin price drop below $60,000. Interestingly, technical analysis shows that the Bitcoin price action is beginning to resemble the pattern it created during the 2022 bear market, with long-term data showing that Bitcoin’s bear cycles have gradually become less severe over time. Related Reading: Stablecoin Market Breaks Records — USDC Controls 70% Of $1.8 Trillion Volume Bitcoin’s Bear Market Cycles Are Shrinking Technical analysis of Bitcoin’s entire price history shows that post-cycle drawdowns have been compressing with almost mechanical precision. This pattern hiding in plain sight was laid out by crypto analyst CrypFlow on the social media platform X. According to the analyst, each major bear market has produced a smaller percentage decline than the previous one, starting with a 93% collapse after the 2011 top. The 2013 top was followed by an 87% collapse. After the run of 2017, the market gave back 84%. Lastly, when the 2021 bull cycle peaked, the subsequent bear market stopped at a comparatively modest 78% decline. The argument is that Bitcoin’s growth into a deeper, more liquid market has gradually reduced the kind of downside volatility that defined its early years. Based on that context, the next major bear market low would not need to rival the bloodshed of prior cycles. Therefore, it is safe to assume a worst-case scenario of a 70% drawdown from Bitcoin’s 2025 peak price of $126,080. Extrapolating that compression forward, a 70% crash from the 2025 cycle top would place Bitcoin somewhere around $37,000. However, the analyst also noted that this price is not a bottom forecast. It is also worth noting that Bitcoin has never closed a monthly candle below the previous cycle top during a bear market. In this case, that previous cycle top is 2021’s peak around $69,000. Familiar 2022 Bull Trap And Possible Drop To $50,000 Bitcoin’s bear market cycles might be shrinking, but a look at the current price pattern shows it might be playing out just like it did in the 2022 bear market. This was revealed in a setup by a crypto analyst that goes by the name Chiefy on X. In that setup, Bitcoin’s current price action was placed side by side with the 2022 bear market, with both periods showing what a textbook sequence of a bear trap followed by a bull trap. In September 2022, Bitcoin staged what appeared to be a recovery bounce at $18,000 after a brutal descent. However, this led to a bull trap around $21,000 that lured buyers in before the price action rolled over and carved out fresh lows. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETFs Bleed $349M In A Day As Whales Dump, Small Buyers Step In: Analysts The script playing out in early 2026, according to this analysis, is identical. The bear trap in this case was Bitcoin’s fall to $60,000 in February and then another bull trap as it pushed to $74,000. If the 2022 analogy holds, that bounce is not a recovery. It is a setup, and the next Bitcoin price low, the analyst warns, is around $50,000. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @0xChiefy On X Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin's derivatives market gave us the best explanation of this week's macro stress. Funding rates turned sharply negative, open interest stayed elevated, and then the US jobs report landed. Put together, that showed a market leaning hard into downside hedges just as a real macro catalyst arrived. That sequence is worth understanding because it explains […]
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After reaching an all-time high of $126,100 in October 2025, Bitcoin entered a deep correction phase, pushing prices to around $60,000 in early February. According to crypto market analysis firm XWIN Research Japan, these last bearish months have marked a structural re-evaluation phase for the leading cryptocurrency. While the consensus market sentiment remains bearish, data from certain supply-side indicators suggest an exhaustion of selling pressure. Notably, XWIN Research Japan shares an insightful analysis of the Bitcoin market balance, based on data from two key on-chain metrics. Related Reading: Bitcoin On-Chain Data Identifies Unusual Market Cap Behavior – Details Bitcoin Correction Driven By Weak Demand, ETF Inflows Show In their latest QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, XWIN Research Japan employs data from the Bitcoin Exchange Reserves and ETF Inflows to properly assess market demand and supply, and ascertain the current phase of the market. Using information from charts shared by CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju, the analysts report that Bitcoin exchange reserves have recorded a steady decline since 2024. This indicates that investors increasingly leaned towards holding their assets in private storage rather than opting for a potential sale. In other words, market supply over the last two years has also gradually reduced. The majority of this period has been matched by an equal or higher demand, as illustrated by an observed price gain of over 200% during this period. One major factor behind this price rise is the Bitcoin Spot ETFs, with a current cumulative total net inflows of $55.37 billion and net assets of $87.07 billion within two years of launch. However, after hitting its most recent all-time high, the Bitcoin Spot ETFs began experiencing a decline in holdings. Notably, data from SoSoValue shows these Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $6.38 billion in net outflows between November and February, indicating a drastic fall in institutional demand, which significantly influenced the Bitcoin correction. According to XWIN Research Japan, this observation further strengthens the Bitcoin Spot ETF as a structural driver in the present market cycle. However, ETF outflows have stabilized in recent times, with large net outflows coming to a halt as most institutional investors appear to have completed rebalancing their portfolios. In particular, the last two trading weeks have resulted in combined net inflows of $1.36 billion. Nevertheless, XWIN Research Japan remains in a supply-demand rebalancing phase, and a sustained rise in ETF holdings is needed to reassess market direction. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETFs Bleed $349M In A Day As Whales Dump, Small Buyers Step In: Analysts Bitcoin Price Overview At press time, Bitcoin is valued at $67,372 after a 4.34% gain in the last month. Featured image from MarketWatch, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin remains trapped in a weeks-long sideways grind, with no clean break above a key resistance level that has capped rallies since April of last year. The April low from last year continues to act as a ceiling. A test of that level triggered the current pullback, and the weakness has yet to resolve. The …
Following its price crash in early February, Bitcoin continues to exhibit significant volatility, with prices fluctuating between $60,000 and $70,000. Last week, the leading cryptocurrency saw a sharp rebound towards the 74,000 price level, but was soon followed by a deep retracement to around $68,000. Amid this choppy price movement and lack of market direction, on-chain data has revealed a tranquil behavior among the Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH). Related Reading: Bitcoin Losing Strength — $66,000 Now The Line Between Recovery And Crash CVDD Data Shows Bitcoin LTH Composure Amid Market Uncertainty Bitcoin long-term holders represent entities or addresses with holdings that have lasted over 155 days. Due to the prolonged holding periods, LTHs are considered more strategic investors than short-term holders, making investment decisions from convictions rather than reacting to price movements. In a QuickTake post on March 7, prominent analyst Darkfost reports that the Bitcoin long-term holders are maintaining a calm market activity amid a flurry of reactions by other investors’ cohorts. This observation was based on data from the Bitcoin Coin Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) metric. Generally, the Coins Days Destroyed (CDD) measures how long coins were held before they moved. The CVDD adds a value component to this metric, thereby evaluating the economic value that comes from old coins entering the market. Therefore, CVDD is a key metric in observing long-term holders’ activity and their impact on the market. According to data from CryptoQuant, Darkfost states that the present CVDD stands around 0.34, a value that is similar to levels recorded during a bear market. This suggests that Bitcoin long-term holders are largely inactive and are opting to hold their assets rather than initiate a redistribution. Meanwhile, high redistribution activity has been recorded when the CVDD rises above 2.0, a value that was also observed during market top formations in the present cycle. Related Reading: Ethereum Rising Wedge Warning: Breakdown Could Send Price Toward $1,500 Bitcoin Price Overview According to data from CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin trades at $67,289, following a minor 0.8% decline in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, daily trading volume is down by 46.65% and valued at $23.67 billion. More data from CoinCodex reveals the market remains on high caution as the Fear & Greed index stands at 12, representing extreme greed. General market sentiment is bearish, especially considering that only 12 of the last 30 days have ended on a green note. However, CoinCodex analysts remain somewhat optimistic, predicting a rise to $73,842 in five days and $76,640 in a month. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview
Over the past few days, the Bitcoin price has had one of its better performances so far in the first quarter of 2026. Catalyzed by the rising geopolitical tensions between US-Isreal and Iran, the premier cryptocurrency climbed to $74,000 over the past week. However, the Bitcoin price did not take long before retreating back below the psychological $70,000 level, confirming that the latest rally was merely a relief. With the bearish market structure still in place, it remains to be seen how low the price of BTC will go in its current phase. $70 Million Worth Of Longs At Risk Of Liquidation In a new post on the social media platform X, crypto analyst Ali Martinez revealed why a further decline to around $54,000 in the remaining period of this phase is possible and could be bad news for both investors and the Bitcoin price. Hence, the $54,000 mark could be an extremely pivotal region for the flagship cryptocurrency in this bear market. Related Reading: The 31,900 Bitcoin Purge: Why March 4 Marked An Institutional Bitcoin Floor Martinez’s evaluation revolves around the Aggregated Liquidation Levels Heatmap metric, which visualizes price zones with high concentrations of long or short liquidations. As expected, the red (hot) color on the map signifies a concentrated liquidation point of several high-leverage positions, often with high liquidity. A drop to $54,000 could liquidate over $70 million in Bitcoin $BTC long positions. pic.twitter.com/Ar66Q3Cd20 — Ali Charts (@alicharts) March 7, 2026 These high-liquidity spots often have a somewhat magnetic effect, with prices often drawn to them. According to Martinez, this “hot” zone for the Bitcoin price lies around the $54,000 mark, with over $70 million worth of long positions at risk of liquidation. Ordinarily, a Bitcoin price drop to around $54,000 would do extra damage to the already low market sentiment. Meanwhile, from a technical perspective, the significant liquidation cascade likely to occur at that level could lead to a phenomenon called a “Long Squeeze,” where the flagship cryptocurrency continues its decline with renewed momentum. For clarity, a Long Squeeze typically occurs when the falling price of a cryptocurrency (in this case, Bitcoin) forces bull traders to sell their assets either to cut losses or to break even. This sell-off catalyzes the ongoing bearish reaction and sends the BTC price further downwards. Ultimately, the $54,000 region, which is also around the realized price, appears to be one of the most critical levels for the Bitcoin price trajectory over the next few months. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $67,830, reflecting an over 4% decline in the past 24 hours. Since reaching its one-month high around $74,000 on Wednesday, March 4, the premier cryptocurrency has retraced by nearly 10%. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin $200,000 Target Remains Open, But There’s A More Realistic Target Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
A large volume of US commercial real estate (CRE) debt is rolling into a very different market from the one that produced it. The Mortgage Bankers Association says $875 billion of commercial and multifamily mortgages are scheduled to mature in 2026, equal to 17% of the roughly $5 trillion of outstanding balances it tracks. While […]
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Headlines about Bitcoin ETF outflows often mix two things: Bitcoin's price move and actual share redemptions. If BTC drops, ETF AUM drops in dollars even if nobody sells a single share. That mark-to-market drop gets read as money leaving, and it can look like an institutional exit when the wrapper's Bitcoin holdings and shares outstanding […]
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Bitcoin is showing signs of weakening momentum as it struggles to regain higher ground, placing the market at a critical turning point. The $66,000 level has now emerged as a key support zone that could determine the next major move. Holding above it may give bulls a chance to spark a recovery, while a decisive break below could open the door for a deeper decline. Bitcoin Struggles Below Blue Box Resistance As Buyers Stay Quiet Bitcoin continues to trade below the blue box resistance, signaling that the market has yet to regain strong bullish momentum. According to crypto analyst Kamile Uray, buyers failed to step in at the $69,407 level that had been closely monitored on the 4-hour timeframe. Although selling pressure pushed the price lower, the pace of the decline has started to slow in the current region. Related Reading: Bitcoin Consolidates Near Key Support Band — $77,000 Holds The Key To The Next Move Uray explained that as long as Bitcoin remains above the $66,187 level, the possibility of another attempt toward the blue box resistance remains on the table. A decisive breakout above the $69,407 resistance, especially with strong high-volume candles, could open the door for a much larger upward move. Based on the principle of equal waves, such a breakout scenario could propel Bitcoin toward the $100,000 mark. A daily close above $98,200 would also establish a new high peak in the context of the latest wave structure on the daily chart, increasing the chances of a sustained uptrend. However, caution may be required if the price approaches the $107,000–$109,000 region, as a bearish Libra formation could develop within that zone. Failure to close above the previous peak could activate the pattern and trigger a renewed downward move. Meanwhile, the $66,187 level remains a key support to watch on the 4-hour chart. Holding above it would keep bullish expectations intact, while a close below it may lead to a retest of $62,433. If the decline deepens further and resistance levels continue to cap upward attempts, the next major support targets are $62,433, $55,230, and $47,256. BTC Loses $70,000 Support As Bearish Momentum Builds Crypto analyst Crypto Candy noted that Bitcoin was unable to maintain its position above the $70,000 level and eventually closed below it. Holding above that zone was previously highlighted as crucial for sustaining bullish momentum. Failure to defend the $70,000 mark suggests that sellers have regained control of the market. Related Reading: Analyst Shares Timeline For When A New Bitcoin Bull Run Will Begin This Year The analyst further explained that bearish pressure may continue unless Bitcoin manages to reclaim and break above the $74,000 level. As long as the price remains below that threshold, momentum favors the downside, with a potential move toward the $61,000 region or even lower levels. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Spot Bitcoin ETFs listed in the US recorded their steepest single-day outflow in nearly three weeks on Friday, with $349 million pulled from all 11 products combined, according to data from Farside. Related Reading: Stablecoin Market Breaks Records — USDC Controls 70% Of $1.8 Trillion Volume The withdrawals came as Bitcoin slid back toward $68,000 after briefly touching $74,000 earlier in the week — a run-up that, based on on-chain data, appears to have been the trigger for a significant wave of selling by large holders. Big Holders Bought Low, Then Sold Fast Crypto analytics platform Santiment tracked the behavior of wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 Bitcoin — a group commonly referred to as whales — and found they had been building positions aggressively between Feb. 23 and March 3, when prices were stuck in the $62,900 to $69,600 range. Once Bitcoin crossed $74,000 on Wednesday, those same wallets began offloading. By Friday, roughly 66% of what they had accumulated over that 10-day window had been sold back into the market. Smaller investors moved in the opposite direction. Wallets holding less than 0.01 Bitcoin — the retail end of the market — have been adding to their positions as prices fell. According to Santiment, that kind of divergence between large and small holders has historically pointed to more downside ahead. “When retail buys while whales sell, it typically signals that the correction is not yet over,” the platform said in a Friday report. Fear Gauge Drops To Its Lowest Reading In Weeks Bitcoin’s slide pushed the Crypto Fear & Greed Index down six points to a score of 12 on Saturday, placing it deep in “Extreme Fear” territory. The index measures market sentiment across a range of factors including volatility, trading volume, and social media activity. Some analysts said that Bitcoin could still face another drop if buyers fail to defend the current price zone. A loss of support around the $67,000–$68,000 range may trigger a move back toward recent lows to gather liquidity before any potential rebound. An Economist’s Case For A $60K Floor Not everyone sees a breakdown coming. Economist Timothy Peterson pointed to the Bitcoin Price to Metcalfe Value chart — a model that measures Bitcoin’s price against the estimated value of its network based on user activity — and said the $60,000 level has held as a bottom in every prior cycle. “About 99.5% chance it stays above $60k,” Peterson wrote on X. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Brief Rally Isn’t The End Of The Bear Market, Analysts Say Bitcoin had already tested that level once this cycle, falling to $60,000 on Feb. 6 during a broader pullback from an all-time high of $126,000 set in October. Since then, it has managed a partial recovery, though Friday’s ETF outflows and the continued whale selling suggest the market has not yet found stable footing. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView
When crude starts leading the headlines, crypto people tend to ask the wrong questions, like what it is that oil actually does to Bitcoin. While it's the simplest and easiest way to explain what you don't know, it's a pretty bad question. A better one is what oil actually does to the cost of money, […]
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Ethereum is showing early signs of a rising wedge formation, a pattern often associated with potential reversals. With key support under pressure, a breakdown from this structure could push the price lower, putting the $1,500 level firmly in focus as the next major target. A Rejection At Key High-Timeframe Support Luca, in a recent update, highlighted that Ethereum’s price has been rejected at the lost high-timeframe support range he referenced in previous PAT updates. This level also aligns with the 2D Bull Market Support Band at $2,180, making it a critical zone for assessing market direction. The rejection suggests that buyers are struggling to reclaim key support, keeping the market under pressure. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Support Intact, but Market Signals Waning Bullish Momentum Examining the mid-term picture, Luca noted that since early February, Ethereum has been forming a rising wedge pattern. Rising wedges are often considered cautionary signals because they can precede corrective moves, indicating that the current upward attempts may lack the strength needed to sustain a rally. Until there is clear evidence of a durable breakout above both the lost high-timeframe support range and the 2D Bull Market Support Band, Luca advises that traders should remain hedged and avoid overly aggressive positions. This strategy helps limit exposure while waiting for a more definitive market trend to emerge. For the time being, Luca plans to remain hedged to mitigate mid-term downside risk. The most probable scenario, according to his analysis, is continued consolidation within the lost high-timeframe range. If bearish pressure persists, Ethereum may continue the high-timeframe downtrend observed over the past few weeks. The next key high-timeframe support to monitor aligns with the early April 2025 lows near $1,500. Ethereum Shows Potential For End-Of-Week Trades Ethereum could present some interesting end-of-week trading opportunities. Lennaert Snyder revealed that price action around key levels may offer both short-term and mid-term setups for active traders. Related Reading: The $2,000 Fault Line: Why Ethereum’s Record Volatility Signals An Imminent Explosion According to the analyst, Ethereum is currently holding at the $2,036 low, which indicates a correlation with the Smart Money Theory (SMT) and Bitcoin. This alignment suggests that price movements in ETH may follow broader market trends seen in BTC, providing potential clues for trading decisions. Snyder plans to enter shorts if Ethereum sweeps and rejects the buy-side liquidity above $2,099, using a bearish MSB as his trigger. Conversely, if price breaks above $2,099, he’ll target longs toward $2,163, relying on SMT with BTC and previously captured sell-side liquidity. He also cautioned traders to be mindful of today’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) release, which can create volatility across crypto markets. Sudden market reactions could impact ETH’s price action, making careful risk management essential around the news event. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview.com
The Bitcoin market experienced a short-lived rebound, as prices broke through the long-standing $70,000 resistance to briefly touch the $74,000 mark before dipping again. Whether this price action represents an initial retest for a potential market recovery remains widely unknown. Meanwhile, on-chain data has highlighted a divergence between growth rates of the Bitcoin market cap and realized cap, which could provide more insight into the present market conditions. Related Reading: Bitcoin May Hit $180,000 This Year, But Only If This Scenario Plays Out: Amber Data BTC Market Cap Lags Behind Realized Cap Expansion The Bitcoin market cap represents the combined spot valuation of all circulating BTC tokens, while the realized cap estimates the value of these coins based on the price at which they last moved on-chain. According to market analyst CryptoZeno in a QuickTake post on Friday, changes in both metrics are key to interpreting market conditions. Amid dominant bullish markets, market cap records a higher growth rate than realized cap, as speculative demand results in heightened market inflows while distribution slows down. Eventually, a sustained price rise above the aggregate cost basis is observed, resulting in BTC market cap expansion. However, recent data shows that realized cap is presently gaining faster than its counterpart, creating a puzzling market situation considering the recent positive price action. Notably, a negative growth differential has emerged between the market cap and the realized cap, with the 365-day SMA indicating that the market cap is now lagging behind the realized cap. According to CryptoZeno, this phenomenon is observed during increasing profit-taking activities, as redistribution starts picking up steam again. At this point, price momentum slows down, while the realized cap is continuously adjusted upwards. However, this development does not indicate an immediate market top, but rather that Bitcoin is transitioning into a phase where capital redistribution becomes more prominent. At this point, the market must discover additional demand if there will be any sustained bullish trend. If speculative demand strengthens again, market cap growth could regain momentum and move back above realized cap expansion, reinforcing a bullish structure. On the other hand, if realized cap continues to expand faster, the current trend may reflect a market gradually digesting sell-side pressure while waiting for stronger buying interest to emerge. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Brief Rally Isn’t The End Of The Bear Market, Analysts Say Bitcoin Price Overview At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $67,832 after a 4:89% loss over the last day. Meanwhile, daily trading volume is down by 15.15% and valued at $44.84 billion. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview
The crypto market turned red again after Bitcoin’s price failed to hold above $74,000. The drop came as tensions grew in the ongoing U.S.–Israel and Iran conflict. The situation further intensified after a White House official said the U.S. wants to cut off Iran’s oil revenues. Other major cryptocurrencies, including ETH, XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin, …
Billions of dollars in fresh USDC were printed in just the first week of March — a minting pace that, if sustained, could push Circle’s total for the month past $12 billion. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Brief Rally Isn’t The End Of The Bear Market, Analysts Say That surge is one sign of the momentum behind a broader milestone: total stablecoin transfer volume hit $1.8 trillion in February, the highest monthly figure on record. USDC Pulls Far Ahead Of Tether USDC, issued by Circle Internet Group, accounted for roughly 70% of all stablecoin transfers last month — about $1.26 trillion. Tether’s USDT logged $514 billion over the same period. That gap surprised some analysts, given that Tether holds the larger market cap by a wide margin — $184 billion compared to USDC’s $77.4 billion. According to Simon Dedic, founder of Moonrock Capital, USDC has “consistently flipped” Tether on transfer volume over the past several months. The disparity means each dollar of USDC is moving far more often than each dollar of USDT. Data from blockchain analytics firm Allium confirmed the February figures. Circle’s business has been growing fast. The company posted strong earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by rapid expansion of USDC’s payment operations. Partnerships with platforms such as Polymarket have added to that momentum. Tether’s supply, by comparison, has held relatively flat through the start of March while USDC continues to be printed at speed. What Rising Stablecoin Supply Means For Markets More stablecoins on exchanges generally means more money ready to buy crypto. On March 5 alone, roughly $5.14 billion in stablecoins flowed into exchanges — up from $1.14 billion just four days earlier on March 1. The total stablecoin supply sitting on exchanges climbed to a three-week high of $66.5 billion by Friday. Historically, big jumps in exchange stablecoin supply have preceded crypto price rallies, as sidelined capital gets redeployed into the market. Bitcoin briefly pushed toward $74,000 this week, partly lifted by that stablecoin inflow. The Stablecoin Supply Ratio — which measures Bitcoin’s market cap against total stablecoin market cap — has been recovering after a sharp drop in February. CIRCLE JUST MINTED $250M $USDC Circle just minted another $250M USDC on Solana. They’ve minted over $3 BILLION in just this first week of March. If Circle continue at this pace, they’re on track to mint over $12 Billion USDC by the end of the month. pic.twitter.com/aoQKi6zbFE — Arkham (@arkham) March 7, 2026 A Closer Look At The Numbers The February record was not just about USDC. Overall stablecoin adoption has been climbing. Florida’s state senate passed a stablecoin bill this week, which now awaits the governor’s signature. Related Reading: SEC Vs. Justin Sun Case Ends In $10M Settlement, Traders Eye TRX Price Reaction Regulatory movement at the state level, combined with growing institutional use of dollar-backed tokens for payments and settlement, has kept demand rising. USDC’s $1.26 trillion in February transfers marks the highest monthly total since the stablecoin launched in September 2018. Reports indicate Circle has already minted more than $3 billion in USDC in March’s first week, with Arkham data showing one single mint of $250 million on Solana. Featured image from Bitkub Academy, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin’s rebound on March 4 looked odd if you only watched it through the usual “risk assets are breaking” lens. Oil was jumping, shipping insurers were repricing war risk, and traders were treating the Strait of Hormuz like a live wire. All of the headlines had the cadence of a full-blown crisis. However, Bitcoin climbed […]
The post Why Bitcoin keeps snapping back to $70k — and the $13B options “magnet” behind it appeared first on CryptoSlate.
Market analyst Ali Martinez highlights a recent development on the Bitcoin 3-day chart with significant bearish implications. The leading cryptocurrency still trades just below the $70,000 mark following the temporary breakout earlier this week. Bitcoin has now spent an overwhelming majority of the last month within the $60,000 – $70,000 price range, after prices crashed to a new market low in late January/early February amid the extended bearish season. Related Reading: Bitcoin May Hit $180,000 This Year, But Only If This Scenario Plays Out: Amber Data Bitcoin Set For Another Leg Down? In an X post on March 6, Martinez shares a key macro insight on the Bitcoin price trajectory, using historical data from the 3-day trading chart. The seasoned analyst explains that the formation of a particular death cross has consistently preceded the final price drawdown in the market cycle. Generally, the death cross represents a bearish technical indicator where a short-term moving average falls below the long-term moving average, indicating that recent price momentum has weakened relative to the longer-term trend, and there is rising selling pressure coupled with a potential prolonged downturn. The common version of the death cross appears when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average, and is a key bearish indicator in the Bitcoin market, according to observations shared by Martinez. In 2013, Bitcoin had notably crashed by 72% before the 50/200 SMA death cross appeared. Thereafter, the market leader recorded an additional 52% price fall, before reaching a price bottom. A similar pattern is observed in 2017, when Bitcoin declined by 67% from its market peak before the appearance of the death cross, which triggers an additional 50% crash. For the last market cycle, the 50/200 SMA death cross appeared in May 2022, when Bitcoin was prominently down by 58% from its cycle top. Thereafter, BTC investors would experience another 46% devaluation. According to data from CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin is presently down by 45.62% from the present cycle high of $126,100 following an extended bearish phase that has lasted since October. Notably, price movement has also minted another death cross on the 3-day chart, indicating a potential major downside could occur based on precedents. In this case, Bitcoin may fall by an additional average 49% to establish a potential bottom around $33,500. However, Martinez warns that this price setup provides no bearish guarantee, but only historical alignment with macro bottom formations. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bounce Fails As Short-Term Holders Rush To Take Profit Bitcoin Price Overview At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $68,235 following a 4.21% decline in the last 24 hours. Following recent positive price action, the maiden cryptocurrency is up by 3.59% on its weekly chart. However, Bitcoin remains far off a bullish turnaround as indicated by current losses of 4.49% on the monthly chart. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview
Bitcoin has entered March under heavy uncertainty. After weeks of volatile trading and macro-driven market pressure, Bitcoin price is hovering around the $70,000 region, leaving investors divided over whether the correction is over or if another drop lies ahead. Sentiment across the crypto market remains fragile, yet on-chain data is beginning to tell a different …
Bitcoin’s initial break above the 6-figure price point back in 2024, and then the eventual move to an all-time high of $126,000, has fueled the expectations of higher price points. Even now, as the price continues to trend below $100,000, it has done little to erase the bullish momentum surrounding the cryptocurrency, especially in the long term. As a result, predictions continue to come out that the Bitcoin price will eventually trade at 6-figures again, and eventually, new all-time highs. Mapping The Bitcoin Price Recovery In a post on the TradingView website, Setupsfx points out an interesting thing about the Bitcoin price chart and why this is bullish for the digital asset. After the Bitcoin price reclaimed $70,000 earlier in the week, it set the tone for another recovery trend, and the analyst suggests that this means that the price can still climb to $200,000. Related Reading: Pundit Says XRP Price At $100 Is Not Insane If You Understand This The analysis highlights that, unlike before, the break above $72,000 came with strong bullish volume. What this simply means is that there is a lot of demand right now for the cryptocurrency, and that is what is driving the current uptrend. If this holds, then the price is likely to continue upward rather than experience another crash. Following the current trend, the analysis sets the first major Bitcoin target at the $104,000 level. This is important because there is a liquidity void sitting in this area. This means that there could be a stop to the uptrend at this level, being a major point of resistance. However, all hope is not lost at this point because it simply shows how important it is to break this resistance. Once this breaks, it sets the cryptocurrency on the path to the next major target, which lies at $124,000. Reaching $124,000 would be momentous for the Bitcoin price as this is just below its current all-time high levels. Related Reading: Dogecoin Morning Doji Star Shows Bullish Reversal That Will Send Price To $0.8 The final target for this analysis actually lies at the $134,000 level, which could deem the uptrend complete. As for the rally to $200,000, the analyst explains that this is still possible, despite many saying that it is unrealistic. Mainly, the $200,000 target is set for the long-term view of the cryptocurrency. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) began the week with a sharp rebound that briefly lifted the world’s largest cryptocurrency back toward the $74,000 mark on Wednesday for the first time in more than a month. However, as the week comes to a close, that momentum has faded, with BTC sliding back to roughly $68,260. Even with the choppy price action, on-chain analytics firm Amber Data argues that the broader outlook for Bitcoin remains constructive. In its latest market report, the firm suggests that new all-time highs are still possible this year. Post-Liquidation Reset Amber Data describes Bitcoin as entering 2026 in an unusual position. The market, it says, has been “de-risked” following October’s liquidation event, which they assert flushed out excessive leverage from the market. In the report, they contend that open interest had climbed to “unsustainable levels,” the basis trade had become overcrowded, and funding rates reflected stretched positioning. Related Reading: Bank Resistance Puts 2026 Passage Of Crypto Market Structure Bill In Doubt, Reuters When headlines surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariff policies hit the market, the overleveraged structure was unable to withstand the selling pressure. The result was a cascade of liquidations that wiped out weak hands and reset positioning. While painful, the correction served a purpose. Valuations have since normalized, leverage has been largely cleared from the system, and the Bitcoin market structure appears healthier, Amber Data noted. Yet the recovery remains fragile. Liquidity is still impaired, and the carry trade — once a major driver of activity — is no longer especially attractive. In Amber Data’s view, the market is now structurally sound but lacks a clear catalyst to define its next major move. ‘Muddle Through’ Phase In its base case, which it assigns a 50% probability, Bitcoin trades between $90,000 and $120,000. This outcome envisions extended consolidation until a meaningful macro catalyst emerges. Under this “muddle through” scenario, conditions neither worsen dramatically nor improve significantly. Volatility compresses, enthusiasm cools, and both bullish breakout expectations and bearish collapse predictions are repeatedly frustrated. Early signs supporting this scenario would include basis annual percentage rates recovering to 8–10%, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows turning consistently positive, order book depth returning toward pre-crash conditions, and funding rates stabilizing in positive territory. 25% Chance Bitcoin Breakout To $180,000 Amber Data assigns a 25% probability to a more optimistic outcome, with Bitcoin climbing between $120,000 and $180,000. In this bull case, institutional participation accelerates alongside sovereign adoption, creating a feedback loop of expanding flows. Early confirmation signals would include weekly Bitcoin ETF inflows exceeding $1 billion, basis rates expanding beyond 15% as leverage demand surges, and new accumulation cohorts appearing in HODL wave data, indicating fresh capital entering at scale. Bear Case Targets $60,000 On the downside, Amber Data assigns a 20% probability to a bearish scenario in which Bitcoin trades between $60,000 and $80,000. This would occur if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate more sharply than currently expected and global markets shift decisively into risk-off mode. Warning signs would include sustained ETF outflows exceeding $1 billion per week, basis yields collapsing below 3%, widespread stablecoin redemptions signaling capital flight, and a potential test of the $80,000 ETF cost basis level. Related Reading: XRP Faces High Risk Of Breakdown Below $1.30, Expert Flags Bitcoin As Main Threat Finally, the firm outlines a 5% probability “volatility and chop” scenario, in which Bitcoin trades between $75,000 and $110,000 with no sustained directional trend. Indicators would include sharply fluctuating funding rates, repeated spikes and collapses in open interest as positions are liquidated on both sides, and inconsistent ETF flows alternating between inflows and outflows without a clear pattern. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio has witnessed a sharp increase recently, indicating that large deposit transactions have gained dominance. Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio Has Seen Its 30-Day SMA Value Hit 0.6 In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about the latest trend in the Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio. This on-chain indicator measures the ratio between the sum of the top 10 exchange inflows and the total exchange inflow. Related Reading: Bitcoin Faces On-Chain Air Gap To $81,000: Will Momentum Build? The ten largest transactions going toward exchanges are generally representative of deposit activity from the whale entities, so the Exchange Whale Ratio essentially tells us about how the inflows from these giants compare with that of the entire market. When the value of the metric is high, it means the whales make up for a large share of the exchange inflows. As one of the main reasons why investors deposit to these platforms is for selling-related purposes, this kind of trend can be a sign that big-money holders are potentially distributing. On the other hand, the indicator having a low value suggests the whales are making up for a relatively healthy portion of the total market deposits, which can be either neutral or bullish for the cryptocurrency. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of the Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio over the past decade: As displayed in the above graph, the 30-day SMA of the Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio floated around the 0.45 mark during 2025, suggesting whale-sized transactions were making up for less than 50% of the exchange deposit activity. Recently, however, the indicator has witnessed a sharp increase. This surge arrived as BTC saw its leg down to $60,000 in early February, but the metric’s value hasn’t calmed down even as the asset has stabilized. Today, the Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio has a value of 0.6, meaning that the ten largest deposit transactions alone add up to 60% of the exchange inflow volume. It now remains to be seen how the BTC price will develop in the near future, given this possible selling pressure being applied by the large hands. In some other news, the Bitcoin Inter-exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) has just seen a trend flip, as the analyst has highlighted in another X post. The IFP keeps track of the flows occurring between spot and derivatives exchanges. Earlier, this metric fell under its 90-day SMA and entered into a period of downtrend, implying speculative activity was declining. Related Reading: Bitcoin Spot ETFs See 14-Day Netflows Surge: Demand Returning? From the chart, it’s visible that the IFP has recently turned back up and crossed beyond the 90-day, implying derivatives flows could be making a comeback. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $68,400, up more than 4% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
The crypto market is under pressure again after a brief recovery attempt earlier this week. Bitcoin had surged toward $73,000, sparking optimism that the broader market could regain bullish momentum heading into March. That optimism did not last long. As of March 7, the crypto market has turned lower again. Bitcoin has dropped toward $68,000, …
Bitcoin’s latest rebound to $74,050 on Thursday is running into immediate selling pressure as short-term holders move coins to exchanges in large volumes, suggesting the market’s most reactive cohort remains unconvinced by the recovery. On-chain data shared by CryptoQuant contributors indicates that traders who bought Bitcoin only weeks ago are now locking in gains rather than holding through the bounce, creating a fresh pocket of supply just as the market attempts to stabilize. Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Cash In According to CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost, more than 27,000 BTC in profits were sent to exchanges by short-term holders (STHs) over the past 24 hours, one of the largest spikes recorded in recent months. The metric tracks coins moved to exchanges by investors who are currently in profit, often interpreted as a precursor to potential selling pressure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Suppressed By Shadow Banking Rehypothecation, Saylor Says “Despite the slight recovery of Bitcoin, STHs (Short Term Holders) do not seem convinced and prefer to take profits quickly,” Darkfost wrote. “Over the past 24 hours, STHs have sent more than 27,000 BTC in profit to exchanges, which ranks among the highest levels observed in recent months.” The dynamic appears concentrated among the most recent buyers. According to the analysis, the only cohort currently able to realize meaningful gains consists of investors who accumulated Bitcoin between one week and one month ago, with a realized price near $68,000. That positioning places them directly in the money after Bitcoin’s latest bounce toward the low-$70,000 range, creating a natural incentive to exit positions quickly. “STH are known for being reactive and emotionally driven, especially the youngest cohorts,” Darkfost noted. “Current news flow and macroeconomic projections remain rather negative in the short term, which makes this behavior relatively understandable and, in this case, fairly rational.” Related Reading: Bitcoin To $11 Million By 2036? This AI-Deflation Thesis Is Turning Heads For now, that behavior translates into near-term supply. “This represents selling pressure to monitor, as STH do not yet appear willing to hold their positions for longer,” he added. Repeated Pattern Around Range Highs Separate market structure analysis points to another pattern that may be reinforcing the selling. CryptoQuant contributor Maartunn highlighted a recurring technical setup that has played out multiple times in recent months: brief breakouts above key resistance levels followed by swift reversals. “Deviations above the Range High keep getting sold,” Maartunn wrote. “Over the last few months, BTC has shown the same pattern three times: break above the range high, short-lived deviation, sharp move lower.” The most recent instance occurred as Bitcoin briefly pushed above a range ceiling near $71,000 before stalling. “The latest deviation just occurred around $71K,” he noted. “If history repeats, this level may again act as a trap for late longs.” The pattern was visible in early-October 2025 and mid-January 2026. Breakouts above local range highs were followed by rapid pullbacks, reinforcing the idea that liquidity above resistance levels has been used primarily as an exit point for sellers. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $70,127. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com