Bitcoin’s latest drawdown is forcing a critical stress test on the “treasury company” trade. Over the past months, the model appeared simple, requiring companies to sell stock or low-cost convertible notes, buy Bitcoin, and rely on rising prices and a persistent equity premium to cover the remainder. However, with Bitcoin sliding towards $70,000, which is […]
The post Bitcoin’s slides to $70,000 triggering structural crisis that could make FTX collapse look like child’s play appeared first on CryptoSlate.
The broader crypto market came under heavy pressure today as a sharp wave of crypto liquidations ripped through leveraged positions, dragging Bitcoin, Ethereum, and major altcoins lower within hours. Over $700 million in crypto positions were liquidated during the session, with long traders bearing the brunt of the damage. The speed of the move suggests …
Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode released a new report on Wednesday highlighting a growing list of warning signals for Bitcoin (BTC), as the market’s leading cryptocurrency slid back to the $72,000 level during the latest market downturn. The firm’s findings suggest that both structural and behavioral indicators are aligning around a more defensive market phase, raising concerns about near‑term stability. Shift Toward Deeper Bear Phase Glassnode pointed first to the breakdown of the True Market Mean, a metric that reflects the aggregate cost basis of actively circulating Bitcoin while excluding long‑inactive coins such as lost supply, early miner holdings, and Satoshi‑era coins. Related Reading: Ripple Throws Weight Behind Hyperliquid, Fueling HYPE’s Rally Toward Crucial Levels Its recent failure, Glassnode said, confirms a deterioration that has been developing since late November of last year, with market conditions beginning to resemble the early‑2022 shift from prolonged consolidation into a deeper bear market. Weak follow‑through from buyers, combined with persistent selling pressure, indicates the market is now operating in a far more fragile balance. From a medium‑term valuation standpoint, Bitcoin’s price is becoming increasingly confined within a wider corridor. The former support level at the True Market Mean, now sitting near $80,200, has flipped into overhead resistance. On the lower end, the Realized Price — currently around $55,800 — continues to define the zone where long‑term capital has historically re‑entered the market. With this structural reset now in place, Glassnode said attention is turning toward identifying where downside stabilization could occur and where a more durable bottom might eventually form. Key Bitcoin Demand Zones While no single indicator can pinpoint a market low, several on‑chain metrics offer clues about where near‑term demand could emerge. One such tool is the UTXO Realized Price Distribution, which shows how much Bitcoin supply is held at various cost bases. Current data reveals meaningful accumulation by newer market participants in the $70,000 to $80,000 range, suggesting that some buyers are willing to step in amid weakness. Below that area, a dense concentration of supply between roughly $66,900 and $70,600 stands out as a high‑conviction zone. Historically, regions with heavy cost‑basis clustering have often acted as short‑term shock absorbers, where selling pressure is more easily met by responsive demand. In its conclusion, Glassnode said Bitcoin has moved deeper into a defensive regime, with on‑chain and off‑chain indicators pointing in the same bearish direction. Profitability metrics show that unrealized gains have been heavily eroded, while realized losses continue to climb as investors reduce exposure into weakness. Thin spot liquidity is adding to the problem, as muted participation makes it difficult for rallies to gain traction. Related Reading: Bitwise CIO Warns Market Is Facing A ‘Full-Bore’ Crypto Winter, Not A Pullback For now, Glassnode emphasized that the key variable remains spot demand. Without a meaningful return of buyers and consistent inflows, Bitcoin remains exposed to further downside and unstable rebounds. Until conviction rebuilds and participation improves, the firm asserts that the balance of risk continues to tilt lower, suggesting that any recovery is likely to require time, absorption, and renewed confidence from the market. At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency was trading at approximately $73,099, marking a significant 18% retracement over the course of the week. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is printing massive bearish candles for the third consecutive day, dragging the price down by more than 10% this week. The BTC price hit an intraday low very close to $70,000, but it did not attract strong buying volume. This raises the possibility of the start of the bearish phase, and the data from …
Bitcoin is struggling to stabilize around the $75,000 level as broader market weakness continues to weigh on price action. After weeks of sustained selling pressure, volatility has compressed, but confidence has not yet returned. Traders remain cautious, liquidity is thinner, and upside attempts have so far failed to gain traction. The current environment reflects a market searching for equilibrium rather than signaling a clear reversal. Related Reading: Bitcoin Unrealized Losses Reach 22% – Still No Capitulation Phase According to On-Chain Mind, assessing whether Bitcoin is approaching a bear market bottom requires shifting focus away from short-term price moves and toward structural stress across the network. In prior cycles, true capitulation did not occur until the majority of participants were deeply underwater. This condition is captured by the Cap Loss Ratio, a metric that compares Realized Cap—Bitcoin’s aggregate cost basis—to Market Cap. When the ratio spikes, it reflects widespread unrealized losses and collective pain across holders. Historically, these spikes have coincided with moments of maximum pessimism, when forced selling, exhausted demand, and broad capitulation aligned to form durable bottoms. The key question now is whether the current drawdown is sufficient to trigger that level of stress, or if further downside is required to fully reset the market. With Bitcoin hovering near critical support, On-Chain Mind poses the central question facing investors today: are we approaching a bear market bottom, or is the market still early in its capitulation phase? Cap Loss Ratio Signals Capitulation Still Ahead On-Chain Mind notes that the historical behavior of the Cap Loss Ratio provides a useful framework for judging where Bitcoin may sit within a bear market cycle. In previous downturns, the metric reached progressively lower peak levels as the market matured. During the 2015 bear market, the Cap Loss Ratio spiked above 0.5, reflecting extreme network-wide distress and deep, prolonged capitulation. In the 2018–2019 cycle, the peak was lower, around 0.4, while the 2022 bear market topped out closer to 0.3. This steady reduction in peak stress suggests diminishing severity across cycles, likely driven by a more diversified holder base, stronger long-term conviction, and improved market infrastructure. If this pattern continues, On-Chain Mind argues that final capitulation in the current cycle would most likely occur with the Cap Loss Ratio somewhere between 0.1 and 0.2. Crucially, the market has not reached that zone yet. Current readings imply that while significant pain has already been absorbed, aggregate losses across the network are still below levels historically associated with definitive bottoms. The market faces additional downside and further stress before it reaches a full reset. At the same time, history shows that the 0.1–0.2 range has often marked areas where long-term, high-conviction entries emerge. These zones tend to coincide with maximum pessimism, declining participation, and forced selling exhaustion. For investors focused on structure rather than short-term price action, this framework helps define where risk remains elevated—and where generational opportunities have previously formed. Related Reading: Bitcoin LTH Profit-Taking Collapses: Is Smart Money Done Selling? Bitcoin Tests Critical Support as Weekly Trend Weakens Bitcoin is trading near the $75,000 area after a sharp rejection from higher levels, confirming a clear shift in market structure on the weekly timeframe. The chart reveals that BTC has decisively broken the rising trend previously sustained by the 50-week moving average. Price is now trading below both the 50-week (blue) and the 100-week (green) moving averages. This historically signals a transition from trend continuation into a corrective or distributive phase. The recent breakdown followed a failed attempt to reclaim the $90,000–$95,000 zone. Which previously acted as support and has now flipped into resistance. This failure accelerated selling pressure and pushed the price toward the $74,000–$75,000 region. A level that coincides with prior consolidation and psychological support. Related Reading: Ethereum Experiences Broad Long Squeeze Across Derivatives Exchanges: Can Bulls Hold $2,300? Despite the weakness, Bitcoin remains above the 200-week moving average (red), which continues to slope upward and currently sits well below the price. From a long-term perspective, this confirms that the macro uptrend remains intact. However, momentum clearly favors the downside in the medium term. If $74,000 fails to hold, the chart indicates a deeper retracement toward the low $60,000s, where stronger historical demand resides. Conversely, any recovery attempt must first reclaim the 100-week moving average to shift the structure back toward neutrality. For now, the chart reflects a market under pressure, testing whether buyers are willing to defend this critical zone. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Data shows calls for sub-$60,000 Bitcoin prices have seen a rise on social media recently, a sign that fear is brewing among retail traders. Bitcoin Social Volume Data Suggests Growth In Bearish Calls In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Santiment has talked about how social media users have reacted to the recent bearish price action. The indicator of relevance here is the “Social Volume,” measuring the total number of posts on the major social media platforms that contain mentions of a given term or topic. Related Reading: Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score Compresses To Levels Last Seen Near $29,000 To separate between bullish and bearish predictions, Santiment has filtered the Social Volume of Bitcoin with terms referencing certain price levels. For the bullish side, the analytics firm has chosen levels in the $90,000 to $99,000 range, while for the bearish one, $50,000 to $59,000. Now, here is the chart shared by Santiment that shows how the Social Volume related to the two types of Bitcoin market calls has changed during the latest price volatility: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Social Volume for levels above $90,000 spiked toward the end of last month, suggesting social media users were expecting the cryptocurrency to revisit the higher levels. What followed the spike, however, was a notable drawdown for the asset’s price. Then, on the last day of the month, the trend flipped as bearish calls observed a sharp surge instead. BTC’s decline temporarily cooled alongside this and prices saw a small rebound. This pattern of Bitcoin going in the direction that goes against the opinion of the majority is actually something that has been witnessed throughout history. Naturally, it doesn’t always happen, but the chances of a reversal tend to go up whenever the traders are leaning into one direction too heavily. From the chart, it’s visible that social media users have recently once again started leaning in on a direction, and, like the last time, they are fearing sub-$60,000 price levels. The analytics firm explained: Markets move opposite to what the crowd expects, meaning there can at least be founded arguments for a short-term relief rally while retail is already assuming sub-$60K Bitcoin is a foregone conclusion. It now remains to be seen how the cryptocurrency’s price will develop in the near future, given the rise in fearful sentiment that has occurred on the various social media platforms. Related Reading: Bitcoin Drop Below $80,000 May Not Be The Final Capitulation Event, Checkonchain Says In some other news, the Bitcoin supply sitting on centralized exchanges has been on the rise recently, as CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr has highlighted in an X post. As data of the Exchange Reserve indicator shows, 34,000 BTC has returned to exchanges since January 19th. BTC Price Bitcoin has continued to slide down as its price has now reached the $73,600 mark. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Crypto-related stocks also fell on Wednesday, with Coinbase shares closing down 6.14% and Bitmine dropping 9.17%.
The Bitcoin drawdown below $75,000 has market participants debating a familiar question: how long does a bear market last when the data refuses to improve. CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno, speaking on The Milk Road Show on Feb. 2, argued that most major demand and liquidity indicators are still signaling weakness and that the bottoming process could take months, not weeks. Bitcoin Bear Market Can’t Be Denied Anymore Moreno’s core framework is CryptoQuant’s “Bull Score Index,” a composite of 10 metrics spanning on-chain valuation, liquidity conditions, market data, and a single technical trend input. “The index goes from zero to 100. Zero is the most bearish, 100 is the most bullish,” he said. “First the index is at zero, which is extremely bearish territory […] and it has been between like zero and 10 for the last maybe month and a half […] What it’s telling us is there’s too much weakness in either the data [or] in the markets.” He pointed to how quickly the same index flipped in October, when a liquidation event accelerated the shift from bullish to bearish readings. In early October the index hit 80, “well inside bullish territory” before collapsing toward 20–30 in “a few days,” a move Moreno interpreted as a momentum failure that turned a late-cycle rally into a short-lived spike. Moreno’s bigger point was about lead time. He said the index “tends to become […] bearish before there’s a big correction in prices,” framing it as an early-warning system rather than a lagging confirmation tool. On the show, he summarized the current regime bluntly: Bitcoin is “well in bear market,” and “the data is just not supportive of any meaningful reversal.” Related Reading: Oct. 10 Started The Bitcoin Bear Market, On-Chain Data Shows On demand, Moreno highlighted US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which he said shifted into net selling in Q4 and remained a drag into early 2026. He cited year-to-date flows showing ETFs had sold more than 10,000 BTC in January, compared with purchasing 46,000 BTC in the same period a year earlier. “If ETFs are net sellers then it’s not supportive for prices,” he said, adding that any sustained recovery would likely require that demand to stabilize and grow again. The same dynamic showed up in the Coinbase premium, the price spread between Coinbase and offshore exchanges such as Binance. Moreno described the premium as a proxy for US demand and said it flipped negative in November and has stayed negative “most of the time” since. Historically, he argued, bull markets have been “driven by […] higher US demand,” and the persistence of a discount suggests the US bid hasn’t returned, even after the drawdown. Moreno also pointed to stablecoin liquidity as a missing tailwind. He tracked the 60-day change in USDT market cap, a proxy for fresh capital entering the trading ecosystem, and said growth has effectively stalled since mid-October. New issuance tends to land on exchanges, he explained, “and provides […] dry powder for then traders buying crypto,” tying stablecoin expansion directly to market-wide liquidity conditions. Beyond ETFs and stablecoins, Moreno said CryptoQuant’s longer-term Bitcoin demand growth model is hovering near zero on a year-over-year basis. “What drives bull markets is this […] growth in demand, the demand waves,” he said, but since October that growth has slowed sharply. In his view, it helps explain why downside has persisted even as the market searches for a durable base. Related Reading: ‘Sell Gold, Buy Bitcoin’: Cathie Wood Makes The Rotation Call Leverage positioning has also deteriorated. Moreno used perpetual futures funding rates as a read on the appetite to hold long exposure and said the one-year average funding rate trend is pointing lower: “less appetite to go long” while short-term funding flips need to be interpreted differently depending on whether the market is in a bull or bear regime. How Deep Into the Bitcoin Bear Market Are We Now? w/ @cryptoquant_com Head of Research @jjcmoreno Bitcoin is trading CHEAPER on Coinbase than Binance. That almost never happens in bull markets. This one signal tells you who is NOT buying the dip. Tune in to know more ⏱… pic.twitter.com/0uxGtntOZP — Milk Road (@MilkRoad) February 2, 2026 When Will The Bitcoin Bear Market End? For the technical component, Moreno emphasized Bitcoin’s one-year moving average, which he treats as a regime filter. “A good way to see the trend in the price is just looking at the one-year moving average,” he said, arguing it acts as support in bull markets and resistance once price breaks below. He noted Bitcoin crossed beneath it in early November and has failed to reclaim it, a pattern he said resembles early 2022. On key levels, Moreno described the “trader on-chain realized price” — the estimated cost basis of active market participants — as overhead resistance around $89,000 and $79,000. His next price target is $70,000 as an intermediate marker and $56,000 as a deeper level tied to the same cost-basis framework. Moreno closed with a warning about psychology as much as charting. “First of all you have to accept this. We are in a bear market. So plan accordingly,” he said. “There will be price rallies […] but don’t confuse that with the start of a bull market […] and […] don’t catch the falling knife […] the market’s bottom in months.” As for duration, Moreno said he could see the first credible bottoming window emerging around Q3 2026, based on historical patterns and the fact that this downturn appears to have started earlier than some prior cycles. Whether that timeline holds, he suggested, will depend less on a single bounce and more on whether demand, US flows, and liquidity indicators stop flatlining and start turning back up. At press time, BTC traded at $75,041. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price extended its decline below $73,500. BTC is now consolidating losses but faces many hurdles near $75,500. Bitcoin is attempting to recover but struggling to clear hurdles. The price is trading below $75,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $75,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $72,000 and $71,200 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Further Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $75,000 zone. BTC extended its decline below the $74,000 and $73,500 levels. The bears were able to push the price below $72,500. A low was formed at $71,532, and the price is now consolidating losses. The current price action is negative below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent downward move from the $76,866 swing high to the $71,532 low. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $75,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading below $75,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $72,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $72,850 level. The first key resistance is near the $74,200 level. A close above the $74,200 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $75,000 resistance or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent downward move from the $76,866 swing high to the $71,532 low. Any more gains might send the price toward the $75,500 level and the trend line. The next barrier for the bulls could be $76,850 and $78,000. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $75,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $72,000 level. The first major support is near the $71,200 level. The next support is now near the $70,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $70,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $68,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $72,000, followed by $71,200. Major Resistance Levels – $72,850 and $74,200.
Bitwise is laying out a bold scenario: Bitcoin could climb to a new record in 2026 and, if the stars align as the sages would say, may one day reach $1 million over the next 10 years. That view rests less on past rhythms and more on a shift in who buys and how they buy. Related Reading: Crypto Hacks Explode: $370 Million Stolen In January Alone: Researchers Institutional Demand Could Soar According to Ryan Rasmussen, Bitwise’s Director of Research, big money is moving from the sidelines onto the field. Spot Bitcoin ETFs and major brokerages have made buying easier for pension funds, endowments, and fund managers. Reports say these channels could funnel tens of billions into the market in 2026 alone. That scale of buying would change how supply shocks play out; a surge of steady inflows can soften the sharp drops that used to follow supply events. JUST IN: $15 billion Bitwise predicts Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high this year ???? “We believe Bitcoin will hit $1,000,000” pic.twitter.com/k4z9Yk8FEF — Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) February 3, 2026 Halving’s Role Is Changing For years, the four-year halving was treated like clockwork: lower miner rewards, tighter new supply, and big price moves. Bitwise now argues that effect is fading. Market access is broader, and more investor types hold stakes, so prices react to a more complex mix of demand signals. Interest rate shifts and the heavy liquidations seen in late 2025 also altered how margin and credit affect crypto moves. Price patterns are being shaped by more varied forces than before. Volatility Has Quieted Reports note a steady fall in Bitcoin’s wild swings over the past decade. In 2025, Bitcoin’s volatility was lower than some major tech stocks, a change that surprises many long-time observers. This makes the asset easier to hold for institutional managers who need predictable risk profiles. At the same time, ties to US equities appear to be loosening. A lower correlation would let Bitcoin serve as a distinct allocation in a diversified portfolio, rather than just another proxy for broader market mood. Related Reading: Trump Says He Was Unaware Of Abu Dhabi Royal’s $500 Million WLFI Investment Near-Term Pain, Longer-Term Case? Bitcoin hit lows under $80,000 recently, trading near $75,000 at one point. Those moves wiped about 10% off value in a week and left the coin roughly 35% below the October 6, 2025 peak of $126,085. Short-term stress is real. Some capital left the market in sharp selloffs, and sentiment cooled. Yet Bitwise thinks these shocks could be less defining going forward, because buying via ETFs and brokerages does not always behave like retail-driven swings. The vision of Bitcoin reaching $1 million may seem distant, but Rasmussen sees it as a realistic outcome if current trends continue. Rising institutional demand and broader market access could make 2026 a turning point, setting the stage for a decade where Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative asset, but a serious contender for long-term wealth growth. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score has fallen to its lowest level in years following the price crash below the $80,000 level. Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score Has Plummeted Recently In a new post on X, Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish has discussed about the latest trend in the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score, an indicator that aims to estimate whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued based on how its market cap compares against its Realized Cap. Related Reading: Bitcoin Drop Below $80,000 May Not Be The Final Capitulation Event, Checkonchain Says The “Realized Cap” is a capitalization model for BTC that calculates its total value by assuming that the value of each token in circulation is equal to the price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain. In short, what this model represents is the amount of capital that investors as a whole have put into the cryptocurrency. In contrast, the market cap represents the value being held by them in the present. The MVRV Z-Score takes the difference between the two and divides it by the standard deviation of the market cap. When the value of the metric is highly positive, it suggests that the market cap is significantly higher than the Realized Cap. In other words, it indicates the investors are in a notable amount of profit. On the other hand, the indicator being inside the negative zone implies the dominance of loss among holders. Now, here is the chart shared by Beamish that shows the trend in the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score over the last several years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score has faced a steep drop as the cryptocurrency’s price has gone through its latest drawdown. The metric has now slipped below the 1 level, although its value still remains above zero, meaning investors continue to be in net profits. The degree of profitability, however, is quite low compared to the average for the last few years. The last time that the MVRV Z-Score was at levels this low was in October 2023, when the asset was still trading near $29,000. “This is a solid reset in unrealised profitability, with the market reverting toward fair value after the prior expansion,” noted the analyst. In the previous cycle, when the MVRV Z-Score saw compression to similar levels, Bitcoin went on to slide further as the 2022 bear market tightened its grip. The cryptocurrency eventually reached its lows after a period of stay in the zone below the 0 level. It now remains to be seen what trajectory the coin will follow in this cycle. Related Reading: Shiba Inu’s Fate Hinges On This Support Level, Analyst Warns The latest market downturn hasn’t only affected unrealized investor gains, realized profits have also shrunk, as pointed out by Glassnode in an X post. The 90-day moving average (MA) of the ratio between realized profits and losses on the Bitcoin network has declined to 1.5, not far from the neutral 1 level. According to Glassnode, this reflects “progressively thinner liquidity conditions.” BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $76,000, down 15% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s latest slide has pushed prices into territory not seen so far this year, with the market briefly trading near the low $75,000 area. Related Reading: Crypto Could Bounce Soon As Fundamentals Firm Up, Tom Lee Says Losses have piled up over recent months, leaving the asset well below its record peak and stirring fresh debate about whether the broader uptrend has stalled. The drop did not happen in isolation, though, and the timing points to wider pressure across risk assets rather than a crypto-only shock. Bids Cluster Below $73k Order books show thicker buy interest clustered in a range that stretches from about $71,500 down toward $64,000. According to market feeds, that demand is visible but tentative. When many bids sit on exchange books they can slow a fall, but they can also disappear quickly if sellers accelerate. Liquidations have amplified the slide: forced closures of leveraged longs have been reported in the millions and such events can create short, violent drops even where fundamental demand remains. This model shows current bitcoin price action is still sitting within historical norms at $74,000. Bitcoin is down ~40% from its October high while U.S. equities remain near all time highs, with the S&P 500 down less than 10%. Under those conditions, a possible ~45% bitcoin… https://t.co/E8oiOKD3VE — Joe Burnett, MSBA (@IIICapital) February 3, 2026 Nothing Out Of The Ordinary According to Joe Burnett, vice president of Bitcoin strategy at Strive, the recent downturn still fits within patterns seen in prior market cycles. Burnett said Bitcoin hovering around the mid-$70,000 range reflects a drawdown size that has appeared before during periods of rapid adoption and price discovery. He added that swings of this scale tend to show up when an asset is still being priced by the market, rather than when it has settled into a stable trading range. Tech Stocks Drag On Risk Appetite The pullback in US tech names, particularly those tied to AI infrastructure, has been cited by several market watchers as a linked cause. NVIDIA and Microsoft were among the bigger drags on major indices, and reports note that weak sentiment around earnings and high-cost AI build-outs has left investors more cautious. When big growth stocks wobble, investors often trim other risky positions too, and crypto has been swept up in that flow. Related Reading: Trump Says He Was Unaware Of Abu Dhabi Royal’s $500 Million WLFI Investment Retail dip-buying was visible on some exchanges, and institutional spot purchases were reported as well. According to Burnett, a 45% drawdown is close to historical swings, which suggests volatility like this has precedents. That view does not remove pain for traders, but it does place the drop into a longer pattern rather than labeling it terminal. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Months ago, a prominent crypto analyst outlined a precise window where the Bitcoin price could enter a violent downside phase. At the time, the projection seemed extreme. Now, with price behavior beginning to align with that roadmap, the analyst has released a far more expansive update — one that not only reinforces the crash call but also maps what comes before and after the next major pivot. Bitcoin Price Multi-Cycle Model Signals A Structural Reset In the update shared on X, the analyst integrates yearly, monthly, and weekly cycles to define both the potential magnitude of decline and the timing of the next pivot. On the yearly timeframe, Bitcoin sits in what he labels an extreme risk zone ahead of a projected pivot around February 2. The structure is left-translated with distributive price action — a formation linked to late-cycle weakness. Related Reading: How To Trade The XRP Price In The Short Term After The Massive Crash He compares the current setup to a previous harmonic phase where Bitcoin dropped roughly 50% from its all-time high before reaching the same pivot window. That decline produced a rebound of about 40% but failed to reach a new all-time high, suggesting the February pivot may bring relief rather than expansion. He also identifies a macro risk window from April to September 2026. On the monthly cycle, the analyst marks a decisive pivot around December 22. Historical drawdowns in similar harmonics were 56%, 77%, and 34%, depending on the cycle context. The 77% drop occurred during a bear market, while the 34% retracement formed a mid-bull cycle. Upside rebounds ranged between 140% and 375%, with a later 158% expansion, showing that monthly harmonics often host the sharpest price dislocations. On the weekly timeframe, a nearer-term pivot appears around November 19. Past pullbacks ranged from 20% to 34%, followed by upside expansions of 99%, 96%, 95%, 127%, and 69%, providing the tactical signals traders may rely on for short-term adjustments within the broader trend. What’s More: Refined Crash Targets And The Bottom Window Beyond confirming the original crash call, the analyst refines the downside roadmap by synchronizing all three cycles. When harmonics align, volatility and pivot significance increase. While the full drawdown ranges 20%–77%, he narrows the likely decline to 34%–55% from the all-time high, noting deeper bear-market conditions are not yet confirmed. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Could Continue To Decline If This Doesn’t Happen; Analyst The November weekly pivot appears too early for a macro bottom, with higher-timeframe pressure likely pushing the true pivot into January. A late-November dead-cat bounce is possible before further downside. Key levels: $90,000 (~30% drop) for November, $72,000 (~43% below the high) for January, with further support at $45,000 and $28,000 if selling intensifies. The analyst remains cautious, noting the last comparable yearly harmonic rallied 40% without surpassing the all-time high, with similar limits expected before the May–September 2026 risk window. However, while his four-month-old crash call held, he believes Bitcoin’s path is far from over—investors should prepare for further downside and a multi-stage recovery shaping the next macro cycle. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
Recent market data has shown that Bitcoin has been trading at an extended discount on Coinbase. Over the past several months, this negative premium, where BTC prices on Coinbase sit below the international average level, has remained consistent. Such prolonged discounts have historically coincided with periods of market uncertainty or late-stage corrections. How Coinbase Premium Remains Negative For Months Bitcoin has been trading at a persistent discount on Coinbase for the past 3 months. A full-time crypto trader and investor, Daan Crypto Trades, has pointed out on X that this typically reflects large ETF outflows and sustained selling pressure from the US-based investors, which has put pressure on a discount to appear. Related Reading: Oct. 10 Started The Bitcoin Bear Market, On-Chain Data Shows These conditions are not unusual and have appeared nearly every market downturn or larger range. Thus, this broader market recovery needs the support of ETF inflows and renewed bidding from the US investors to surge higher. For this reason, monitoring the Coinbase premium and discount is important to know when the price flips around. A stronger directional trend combined with steep discounts or premiums often reinforces the prevailing market move. A Relief Rally Could Buy The Market Time Until October Bitcoin has now broken below its April 2025 low, placing the market at an important inflection point. The CEO and founder of ITC_Crypto, Benjamin Cowen, noted that if the price fails to bounce soon, this could turn into a difficult midterm year. However, if the price can bounce back, it would likely provide the market several months of relief, pushing price action to October and potentially aligning with a more durable bottoming process. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Lack Of New Capital Leaves It Vulnerable To Continued Selling Pressure According to Benjamin, the bearish narrative has been dominant for an extended period, which increases the probability of a countertrend rally that could temporarily restore confidence among bulls. Meanwhile, Benjamin has cautioned against attempting to trade such moves. Furthermore, countertrend rallies often occur unexpectedly, not when market participants are actively anticipating them. A sweep of prior lows would offer short-term relief, even during the bull market. In 2014, 2018, and 2022, when BTC broke below the 100-week Simple Moving Average (SMA), the price moved straight down to the 200-week SMA before any meaningful relief occurred. From a broader perspective, Benjamin emphasized that the optimal time to sell BTC was late last year, not during panic-driven sell-offs in a midterm year. His focus remains on the larger cycle, suggesting that late Q3 to early Q4 will be a more favorable window to move real money back into the market. Until then, it is just traders trying to make money during difficult times, attempting to trade the support and resistance levels. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
The crypto market extended its selloff on Tuesday, with Bitcoin falling below $73,000 for the first time since November 2024, triggering sharp swings across major digital assets. Bitcoin briefly dropped nearly $1,900 in just 25 minutes, wiping out around $70 million in long positions. Minutes later, prices rebounded by more than $1,200, liquidating another $15 …
Bitcoin has lost more than $53,000 in value over the past four months, extending a sharp downturn that has erased much of last year’s rally and left investors searching for signs of stability. Bitcoin peaked near $126,000 in October 2025 and has since fallen to around $73,200, its lowest level this year. The decline has …
Hyperliquid has broken ranks with the broader digital asset market, posting a massive double-digit rally while Bitcoin and other major altcoins like XRP suffer from the bear market. According to CryptoSlate's data, Hyperliquid's HYPE is one of the crypto market's top performers over the past two weeks, jumping roughly 71% to a high of $35, […]
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Major cryptocurrencies remained under pressure on Tuesday, as a Bitcoin-led selloff dragged the broader digital asset market lower. The total crypto market value fell to about $2.54 trillion, down over 3% in 24 hours, according to market data. Losses were led by Bitcoin, with Ethereum and XRP also declining sharply. Bitcoin Breakdown Sets the Tone …
Bitcoin's continued sell-off is reviving concerns that the market may be slipping back into a familiar four-year cycle pattern.
Ethereum has seen a sharp sell-off that sent the price straight into a major demand zone near $2,150, which is now acting as the market’s last line of defense. Whether buyers step in here or fail to hold the line could determine if this move becomes a temporary liquidity flush or the start of a deeper trend shift. ETH Loses Key Support As Short-Term Momentum Turns Bearish Michael Van De Poppe noted that Ethereum has slipped below a crucial support zone, signaling increased short-term pressure. On the lower timeframes, price action has turned clearly bearish. However, zooming out to the higher timeframes, the broader structure remains intact, with ETH still trading within a larger uptrend. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Recovery Runs Into A Wall, Decline Risk Returns He pointed out that Ethereum likely marked its cycle low back in April 2025, suggesting the current weakness may be corrective rather than the start of a sustained bearish phase. At this stage, ETH appears to be searching for a higher-timeframe support level that could act as a base for a renewed move to the upside. Van de Poppe highlighted the 0.025–0.0265 BTC region as a key support zone on the ETH/BTC pair. Importantly, the recent correction has already retraced more than half of the move toward this level, increasing the likelihood that demand could step in around that range. On the upside, he added that a recovery above the 0.0325 BTC level. While less likely in the near term, it would be a strong signal that bullish momentum has returned and a continuation of the broader uptrend. Despite ongoing volatility, Van de Poppe remains confident that Ethereum will significantly outperform Bitcoin over time. Thus, he will continue to accumulate ETH at these levels. Sharp Sell-Off Drives Ethereum Into Major Demand Near $2,150 In a more recent update, Dami-DeFi pointed out that Ethereum failed to hold the rising support line near the $2,800 level, which he had previously identified as critical. This breakdown was confirmed on the daily timeframe, triggering a sharp sell-off that pushed the price swiftly into the next major demand zone around $2,150. Related Reading: Analyst Says You’re Not Bullish Enough On Ethereum – What Does He Mean? If buyers manage to defend this level, the recent drop could be interpreted as a liquidity sweep followed by a market reset, rather than the start of a deeper downtrend. In that case, price action would likely shift into a choppy consolidation phase, with ETH rebuilding structure between $2,150 and $2,700. According to Dami-DeFi, a meaningful bullish shift only comes into play if Ethereum can reclaim $2,700 and then establish acceptance above $2,850. Until those levels are recovered and held, any upside attempts are likely to remain corrective, with the market still focused on whether demand can firmly step in at current levels. Featured image from Pxfuel, chart from Tradingview.com
On-chain analytics firm Checkonchain has pointed out how data could suggest that the latest Bitcoin decline is part of a deeper bear market progression, rather than the final capitulation event. Bitcoin Has Broken Below Both True Market Mean & Average ETF Cost Basis In a new post on X, Checkonchain has talked about the recent bearish action in the Bitcoin price. As the below chart shared by the analytics firm shows, this drawdown has taken the cryptocurrency below two key on-chain cost basis levels. The first level that Bitcoin dropped under was the ETF Cost Basis, corresponding to the average inflow price of the US spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Before this, the asset had stayed above the line since the second half of 2024. A close call came in the last quarter of 2025, but the level had ended up acting as a support cushion. This time around, however, the price went straight through the line. After the ETF Cost Basis was broken, the next level Bitcoin lost was the True Market Mean, a metric tracking the average buying price of the economically active BTC supply. Thus, the break also sent the majority of the asset’s active investors into a state of net unrealized loss for the first time since 2023. Related Reading: Shiba Inu’s Fate Hinges On This Support Level, Analyst Warns While the price drawdown so far has clearly induced a lot of market pain, it may not be enough yet, as Checkonchain has noted, “the underlying data suggests this is progression deeper into the bear, not the final capitulation event.” The analytics firm has listed a few metrics pointing to this. First, the spot ETFs have faced negative netflows recently, but while the outflows have been sizeable, they have still lacked the character associated with the panic exodus witnessed at the end of a cycle. Likewise, on-chain losses have observed an increase as the market crash has occurred, but they also haven’t yet reached a level that may be considered to be a reflection of a true capitulation event. Finally, futures market data suggests traders have still been trying to catch the bottom. Checkonchain has described these conditions as “a regime where durable lows rarely form.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Net Taker Volume Sees Third-Largest Bearish Spike In 2 Years This speculation from futures traders has been resulting in mass liquidations on the various exchanges. During the past day alone, long Bitcoin bets worth $50 million have been liquidated as the price has seen a swing from around $79,000 to levels under $76,500, according to data from CoinGlass. In total, the cryptocurrency market as a whole has witnessed the flush of $185 million in long positions inside this window. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $76,100, down nearly 14% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has released a new analysis of the current state of the crypto market, arguing that the industry has been firmly entrenched in a bear market for over a year. In a report shared on social media, Hougan stated that his research indicates the current downturn began as early as January 2025, despite widespread optimism fueled by institutional adoption, regulatory progress, and Bitcoin’s (BTC) rally to new all-time highs. Deep Bear Market Driving Crypto? Posting on X, formerly Twitter, Hougan pushed back against the idea that recent price weakness represents a routine pullback or short‑term dip. Instead, he described the current environment as a full‑scale crypto winter comparable to past downturns in 2018 and 2022. Interestingly, Hougan said the crypto market currently resembles a “2022‑like, Leonardo‑DiCaprio‑in‑The‑Revenant‑style” winter, driven by excessive leverage built up during the prior cycle and heavy profit‑taking by long‑time crypto holders. Related Reading: What’s Next For Bitcoin? Two Key Scenarios: Will It Crash To $60,000 Or Surge To $100,000? Hougan addressed a question many investors have been asking: why prices continue to fall despite a steady stream of positive developments. He pointed to expanding institutional involvement, improving regulation, and broader adoption as clear long‑term positives, but said none of that typically matters during the deepest phase of a bear market. According to Hougan, crypto winters are periods when good news is largely ignored, regardless of its significance. Even developments such as Wall Street firms hiring aggressively or major banks like Morgan Stanley increasing their crypto exposure are unlikely to spark a rally in the short term. He also cited market sentiment indicators to support his view. Hougan noted that the Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains near historically high levels of fear, even as the newly appointed Federal Reserve (Fed) chair is publicly supportive of Bitcoin. To him, this disconnect underscores how deeply negative sentiment has become. Drawing on past cycles, Hougan said crypto winters rarely end with renewed excitement or optimism. Instead, they typically conclude when investors are exhausted and disengaged. ETF Support Propped Up Bitcoin? Looking to history, Hougan observed that previous crypto winters have lasted roughly 13 months. Bitcoin reached its peak in December 2017 before bottoming a year later, and again peaked in October 2021 before hitting its low point in November 2022. By that measure, the current cycle might suggest more pain ahead, particularly since Bitcoin peaked again in October 2025. However, Hougan argued that focusing solely on that date misses a critical detail. In his view, the current winter actually began in January 2025 but was partially hidden by extraordinary institutional inflows. He said strong demand from exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) masked underlying weakness across much of the crypto market. Hougan emphasized the scale of institutional support for Bitcoin in particular, calling it unprecedented. During the period he analyzed, ETFs and DATs collectively purchased more than 744,000 BTC, representing roughly $75 billion in buying pressure. He suggested that without this support, BTC’s price could have fallen by as much as 60%. Related Reading: Hyperliquid Unveils HIP‑4, Sending HYPE 14% Higher On Outcome Trading Plans Despite this, Bitwise CIO suggested several possible catalysts that could help lift sentiment and mark the beginning of a crypto recovery, including strong global economic growth that reignites risk appetite, progress on the CLARITY Act, early signs of sovereign adoption of Bitcoin, or simply the passage of time. Reflecting on his experience through multiple crypto market cycles, he said the current mood of despair, fatigue, and malaise closely resembles the final stages of past crypto winters. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
The Bitcoin price is under pressure after slipping below its April 2025 low. The move has reignited fears of a deeper correction, but analysts remain divided on whether this is the final phase of the bear market or just another leg down before recovery. Historically, Bitcoin bear markets last around 12 months. Considering this, the …
Bitcoin price today dropped sharply, falling to the $74,000 level and triggering another wave of selling across the crypto market. Ethereum slipped nearly 10% to around $2,100, while most major altcoins declined between 5% and 10% today. The sudden move has raised fresh concerns about whether Bitcoin is entering a deeper correction phase after weeks …
ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood said she would “make a shift from gold into Bitcoin” after gold’s run left the metal looking extended on a key liquidity-adjusted measure, arguing that bitcoin’s supply dynamics and long-term adoption case still favor the crypto asset despite a sluggish year. Speaking on a Feb. 2 episode of The Rundown interview, Wood framed the call as part of a broader “great acceleration” thesis laid out in ARK’s latest “Big Ideas” report, which expects AI-driven capital expenditure to surge and spill into robotics, energy storage, blockchain, and life sciences through what she described as converging S-curves. Sell Gold, Buy Bitcoin Now? Wood pushed back on the idea that bitcoin has “lost its mojo” as gold has outperformed in recent years, starting with a statistical point. “First thing you should know, Bitcoin and gold are not correlated. We did the analysis […] the correlation […] is as close to zero as you can get so no correlation,” she said, adding that in the last two market cycles, gold led bitcoin before the crypto asset caught up. Related Reading: Bitcoin Net Taker Volume Sees Third-Largest Bearish Spike In 2 Years Her more forceful warning was directed at gold’s positioning versus broad money. “You’ll find this […] a chart showing gold divided by M2. It has only been—it has never been higher. It hit a new all-time high this week,” Wood said, arguing the setup resembles historical extremes that coincided with very different macro regimes. “Gold is probably riding for a fall […] The last two times it was anywhere near this was in the massive inflation […] in the 70s early 80s and […] the Great Depression.” Wood said the stablecoin boom has absorbed some of bitcoin’s “emerging markets” transaction narrative, but she characterized that as a payments-layer substitution rather than a savings-layer replacement. “That’s just for the equivalent of a checking account. When they want real savings, they’re going to buy Bitcoin, we believe,” she said, tying the view to ARK’s long-term upside case. She referenced a bull-case target of $1.5 million by 2030 in the conversation, alongside the firm’s previously discussed seven-figure framework. Related Reading: 70% Bitcoin Crash Incoming? CryptoQuant CEO Says It Depends On This Her core comparative claim against gold centered on issuance. “The supply growth of Bitcoin is 0.8% per year and it’ll drop to 0.4 in another two years,” Wood said, contrasting it with gold supply growth she pegged at about 1% on average and suggesting mining output could run higher than bitcoin’s deterministic issuance rate. She also pointed to “intergenerational wealth transfer” as a potential tailwind for bitcoin over time. Wood also offered a more tactical explanation for why bitcoin has struggled to sustain upside momentum, pointing to what she described as an October 10 “flash crash” tied to a software glitch at Binance and an auto-deleveraging cascade. “There was a flash crash caused by a software glitch at Binance and there was an auto deleveraging event,” she said. “People were just […] margin called to the tune of about 28 billion dollars […] and we think that is just now washing through the system.” Because bitcoin is “the most liquid of all crypto assets,” Wood argued it becomes “the first margin call,” making it the primary source of forced selling during broad deleveraging. She suggested that overhang is now fading, but her comments came before Monday’s downdraft that saw bitcoin slide to $74,600. In the interview, she said the market was “testing […] around 80,000 again” and expected it to “hold in the 80 to 90,000 range” absent a major geopolitical shock. “Unless all hell breaks loose in Iran […] then maybe we’ll see the store of value come back for Bitcoin,” she added. At press time, BTC traded at $78,377. Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com
Tom Lee—long known for bullish takes—says crypto prices may be close to their floor. According to his comments on TV, he sees signs that buying pressure could return if the economic and on-chain backdrop holds. Related Reading: Gold Vs. XRP: One Asset Just Added 20x The Other’s Market Value During an interview on CNBC, Lee, Fundstrat’s head of research, said the current market setup could improve as fundamentals continue to firm up. That view sits alongside a big loss at his firm, which raises questions about how confident outside observers should be. Market Moves And Capital Flows Reports say capital moved sharply into precious metals as traders sought cover, and that flow drained money away from crypto. Gold and silver had run-ups that drew cash. At the same time, some market players were already light on borrowed positions. That mix left prices more exposed than many expected. “I think as long as crypto fundamentals are good, then crypto prices should follow,” says Tom Lee of @Fundstrat:https://t.co/pldeBkwChZ — Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) February 2, 2026 Big Sales And Liquidations About $2.56 billion in Bitcoin liquidations were recorded during the sharp swings this week, as traders closed out positions and risk appetite faded. Reports have disclosed that large sells pushed Bitcoin below key levels, and it dipped under $78,000 for a spell. BitMine, the firm tied to Lee, is reported to be sitting on roughly $6.95 billion in unrealized losses, a fact that complicates any narrative about neutral observers calling a bottom. Signals That Could Mark A Turn Reports note an uptick in Ethereum active accounts and growing work by big financial firms to build products on the network. Those are the kinds of measures that, over time, tend to reflect deeper demand than short-term speculation. A BitMine adviser has projected targets for Bitcoin and Ethereum—$77,000 and $2,400 respectively—and some say those levels could signal exhausted selling if reached. But the market has been jittery, and numbers on the screen can change fast. Policy Noise And Geopolitics Matter Policy moves in Washington have been flagged as a source of extra uncertainty. Some decisions by regulators and lawmakers are viewed as favoring certain firms or sectors, which adds to the uneven tone across risk assets. On top of that, tensions in the Middle East have pushed investors toward safe havens. When politics and geopolitics both push in the same direction, crypto tends to feel that pull. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETF Investors Pull Nearly $3 Billion, Pushing Average Buy Below Water Even if fundamentals look okay, timing is crucial. Liquidity conditions can tighten quickly if sentiment turns, and that can make any rebound short-lived or shallow. Reports say traders are watching for tapering in liquidations and clearer signs that flows into metals have paused before they will step back in with confidence. There is a case that the worst selling has happened. There is also a case that prices can fall further if a shock hits. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin is struggling to reclaim the $80,000 level after several days of sustained selling pressure and heightened market uncertainty. Price action remains fragile, with each rebound attempt failing to attract strong follow-through, reinforcing concerns that the market is still digesting a broader structural shift rather than a short-term correction. According to top analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin entered a bear cycle in October 2025 and is now moving through a correction phase following the local peak near $125,000. Related Reading: Ethereum Experiences Broad Long Squeeze Across Derivatives Exchanges: Can Bulls Hold $2,300? On-chain data supports this interpretation. Two key indicators — Percent Unrealised Loss and the LTH/STH SOPR Ratio — point to mounting stress across the holder base, but without the hallmarks of full capitulation. Unrealised losses have risen sharply, tripling since January from roughly 7% to around 22% as prices declined from $95,000 to near $78,000. While this increase signals growing discomfort among investors, it remains well below the 40–60% levels historically associated with deep bear-market capitulation in 2019 and 2023. At the same time, the LTH/STH SOPR Ratio has dropped around 40% from its peaks, indicating compressed profitability and reduced willingness to sell at a loss, particularly among longer-term holders. Together, these signals suggest Bitcoin is in a mid-cycle stress phase: pressure is building, confidence is weakening, but widespread forced selling has not yet emerged. Profit Compression Without Capitulation Signals Adler also highlights the behavior of the Bitcoin LTH/STH SOPR Ratio as a critical lens for understanding the current market phase. This metric compares the profitability of coins being spent by long-term holders (LTH) versus short-term holders (STH), offering insight into who is absorbing losses and who is still distributing coins at a profit. High readings indicate that long-term holders are realizing profits far more efficiently than short-term participants, while lower values imply growing loss realization among newer entrants. Since peaking near 1.85 in October, the LTH/STH SOPR Ratio has fallen to around 1.13, representing a decline of roughly 40%. This sharp compression reflects a clear deterioration in profitability across the market. However, the indicator remains above the critical 1.0 threshold. Historically, sustained moves below 1.0 have marked periods where short-term holders capitulate en masse, selling at significant losses. Deeper drops into the 0.6–0.8 range coincided with full capitulation and cycle lows in 2015, 2019, and 2023. At the current level, profit margins are tightening for both cohorts, but long-term holders are still, on average, exiting positions above cost. Adler notes that a decisive break below 1.0 would signal a transition into true capitulation, while a recovery toward 1.3–1.4 would indicate renewed confidence. Taken together with rising unrealised losses, the data points to a mid-cycle stress phase rather than a terminal bear-market bottom. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miner Fees Remain Near Cycle Lows: What Does This Signal? Bitcoin Stabilizes After Sharp Sell-Off Bitcoin price action on the 12-hour chart reflects a market still under structural pressure. Despite a short-term stabilization attempt around the $78,000 zone. After an aggressive sell-off from the mid-$90,000s, BTC broke decisively below multiple key moving averages. This confirms a broader bearish regime rather than a simple pullback. The sharp downside impulse was accompanied by a notable spike in volume. Signaling forced selling and liquidation-driven flows rather than orderly profit-taking. Since tagging the local low near $78,000, the price has attempted a modest rebound. However, this bounce remains technically weak. Bitcoin continues to trade below the short-term and medium-term moving averages. Which are now sloping downward and acting as dynamic resistance. Previous support in the $88,000–$90,000 region has clearly flipped into a supply zone. Capping upside attempts and reinforcing the idea of a range forming beneath a broken structure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bear Market Signal Emerges: Supply in Loss Rises Above 40% The current consolidation appears more consistent with a relief pause than a trend reversal. Momentum has slowed, but there is no evidence yet of sustained bid absorption or higher-timeframe demand stepping in. As long as BTC remains below the descending moving averages, downside risks persist. The price is vulnerable to renewed tests of the recent lows. Reclaiming and holding above the $82,000–$85,000 area would be required to signal a meaningful shift in short-term structure. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price extended its decline below $75,000. BTC is now attempting to recover from $72,850 but faces many hurdles near $76,500. Bitcoin is attempting to recover above $74,000 and $75,000. The price is trading below $79,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $77,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $75,000 and $74,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Faces Hurdles Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $76,000 zone. BTC extended its decline below the $75,000 and $74,000 levels. The bears were able to push the price below $73,500. A low was formed at $72,865, and the price is now attempting to recover. There was a move above $75,000. The price surpassed the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $79,120 swing high to the $72,865 low. However, the bears are active near $77,000 and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $79,120 swing high to the $72,865 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $77,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $75,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $76,750 level. The first key resistance is near the $77,000 level. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $77,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. A close above the $77,200 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $78,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $79,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $80,000 and $80,500. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $77,200 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $75,000 level. The first major support is near the $74,000 level. The next support is now near the $72,850 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $71,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $70,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $75,000, followed by $74,000. Major Resistance Levels – $76,750 and $77,200.
Bitcoin continues to trade below the $80,000 level as the market remains under sustained selling pressure and heightened uncertainty. Recent price action reflects a fragile environment in which downside moves are met with limited conviction from buyers, while broader risk sentiment across crypto stays defensive. As volatility persists, analysts are increasingly focused on on-chain indicators to assess whether the market is approaching exhaustion—or if further downside still lies ahead. Related Reading: Ethereum Experiences Broad Long Squeeze Across Derivatives Exchanges: Can Bulls Hold $2,300? A new report from CryptoQuant highlights a notable deterioration in holder profitability through the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which has fallen to its lowest levels of the past year. The SOPR measures whether coins being spent are moving at a profit or a loss, offering insight into the behavior of different investor cohorts during periods of stress. One key observation is the convergence between long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs). The SOPR ratio has dropped sharply toward the critical 1.0 level, indicating that long-term holders are realizing significantly less profit than before—or are choosing to stop selling altogether at current prices. This behavior suggests a growing reluctance to distribute coins into weakness, even as short-term participants continue to face losses. With Bitcoin still below key psychological levels, the evolution of SOPR will be closely watched. Whether this shift marks early stabilization or simply a pause before deeper capitulation remains an open question for the weeks ahead. SOPR Signals Selling Exhaustion, Not Capitulation The report adds that Bitcoin’s recent price action closely mirrors the deterioration seen in SOPR. The price (black line) has reached a local low near $77,900. Aligning with the sharp drop in the ratio toward its lowest levels of the past year. This synchronization suggests that realized selling pressure has intensified alongside the decline in profitability, reinforcing the view that the market has moved into a stress phase rather than a routine pullback. From a sentiment perspective, historically depressed SOPR readings have often coincided with moments when so-called “smart money” reduces selling activity. When coins are no longer being spent at a meaningful profit, long-term holders tend to step back, allowing selling pressure to subside. In past cycles, similar conditions have preceded periods of accumulation or the formation of local market floors. Although timing has varied widely. Two scenarios now stand out. If the SOPR stabilizes around the 1.0 level, it would suggest that heavy distribution from long-term investors is largely exhausted. Creating room for a relief bounce as marginal demand returns. Alternatively, the steep, momentum-driven drop in price increases the likelihood of extended sideways consolidation, as the market digests recent volatility before establishing a clearer trend. In summary, the data points to a flush market. With SOPR at yearly lows, weaker hands appear to have exited, shifting the balance toward longer-term value considerations over short-term fear. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bear Market Signal Emerges: Supply in Loss Rises Above 40% Bitcoin Struggles Below Key Averages Bitcoin’s weekly chart highlights a market under sustained pressure, despite a modest rebound off recent lows. Price is currently hovering around the $78,000 area after briefly dipping toward the mid-$70,000s, a zone that has acted as an important short-term demand pocket. This bounce, however, has so far lacked follow-through and does not yet signal a structural trend reversal. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains below its major moving averages. The price is trading well under the 100-day and 200-day averages, both of which are now sloping downward. This configuration reinforces the broader bearish bias and suggests that rallies are still being sold into rather than accumulated aggressively. The prior support region between $85,000 and $90,000 has clearly flipped into resistance. Confirming a change in market structure compared to late 2025. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miner Fees Remain Near Cycle Lows: What Does This Signal? The sell-off into the $74,000–$76,000 range was accompanied by elevated volume. The subsequent rebound has occurred on comparatively lighter participation. This divergence implies short-covering or tactical buying rather than renewed conviction from longer-term investors. Structurally, Bitcoin appears to be transitioning from a distribution phase into a consolidation or corrective regime. As long as the price remains below reclaimed resistance and fails to regain key moving averages, downside risks remain active. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com