Strategy’s leadership is pushing back against growing concerns that the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin (BTC) could face serious financial stress as the cryptocurrency’s price continues to slide. Speaking after the company released its fourth‑quarter results, CEO Phong Le sought to reassure investors that the firm remains well-positioned, even as Bitcoin fell close to $60,000 on Thursday. Bitcoin Sell‑Off Tests Strategy’s Financial Resilience Bitcoin dropped roughly 50% since reaching all‑time highs of $126,000 in October of last year, a period during which Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, was aggressively accumulating the digital asset. The sell‑off has weighed heavily on the company’s share price. Strategy’s stock, trading under the ticker MSTR, sank to about $104 on Thursday, its lowest level since August 2024, after plunging more than 17% during the session. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Exposes Colossal Corporate Losses — Here’s Who’s Most Impacted For now, investors are focused on two key factors: the price of Bitcoin itself and Strategy’s ability to meet its financial obligations if the downturn deepens. Those questions loomed large as founder Michael Saylor and CEO Phong Le addressed analysts during the firm’s earnings call. Much of the attention centered on how Strategy would navigate a prolonged “Bitcoin winter,” should one materialize. Saylor has already taken steps to bolster the company’s financial flexibility, including raising a $2.25 billion cash reserve to cover preferred dividend payments totaling $888 million annually. However, investors remain uneasy about the company’s $8.2 billion in low‑ and zero‑interest convertible bonds, which could begin facing early redemptions starting in September 2027, particularly now that MSTR shares have fallen sharply. Politics, Leverage, And Valuation In Focus Saylor reiterated that the company is keeping its options open, including the possibility of selling Bitcoin if market conditions require it. He also framed crypto investing as inseparable from politics, pointing to President Donald Trump’s pro‑crypto stance and noting that Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve (Fed) chair, Kevin Warsh, is viewed as supportive of digital assets. Still, Bitcoin fell through its post‑2024 election lows on Thursday, reflecting skepticism that the federal government will actively support Bitcoin purchases. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reinforced those doubts this week, telling Congress he lacks the authority to rescue Bitcoin markets. On the balance‑sheet front, CEO Phong Le addressed worries about Strategy’s leverage. He said the company operates with roughly one‑third the leverage of a typical high‑yield firm. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crashes Below $67,000 As Stifel Warns Of Potential Drop To $38,000 According to Le, Bitcoin would need to decline by about 90% for Strategy’s Bitcoin reserves to merely equal the value of its convertible debt. Even in that extreme scenario, he said, the company would explore restructuring options if it could not convert the debt into equity. Strategy’s own disclosures show an enterprise value of about $49.95 billion, compared with roughly $45.33 billion worth of Bitcoin on its balance sheet. Enterprise value includes the company’s market capitalization, preferred shares, and convertible bonds, minus cash. If Bitcoin drops once again near $63,000, Strategy’s market cap of $35.57 billion would need to fall about 13% from its recent closing price of $106.99 to eliminate the valuation premium over its Bitcoin holdings. However, since Thursday’s crash, both Bitcoin and Strategy’s stock have made a significant recovery. Bitcoin, for example, has surged to around $69,256. MSTR has recovered above $130, marking a 20% increase in less than 24 hours and offering short-term relief. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
According to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, much of the crypto complex already went through a down cycle last year even though headline coins looked steadier. Related Reading: Russia’s Biggest Exchange To Launch XRP Indices And Futures He points to heavy buying from ETFs and companies that kept Bitcoin, Ether, and XRP from showing the full brunt of those losses. Some tokens, without that same support, fell hard — in many cases by about 50%–60% — and behaved like past bear phases. Institutional Buying Accelerates Hougan Says ETF flows and corporate accumulation have shifted the balance. When institutions buy more than new supply, price pressure changes. That is what he highlights. “We ran the four-year cycle last year,” Hougan said. “We’re already at the bottom. I think we’re coming back up.” ETF purchases and corporate hoarding at times outpaced newly mined Bitcoin, creating a persistent bid under the market. Reports note the comparison to gold, where steady central bank buying first steadied prices and later helped fuel much bigger moves. “Just like gold eventually entered a parabolic move, Bitcoin will follow suit,” Hougan said. We’re just earlier in that process.” A Selective Altcoin Cycle Expected Investors are getting pickier. The next up-cycle, according to this view, will reward projects with clear use and steady activity, not every token with hype. Networks tied to stablecoins, tokenization, and real infrastructure work stand a better chance of drawing capital. Lower-quality projects that lack users or clear purpose could see little interest and remain sidelined. Bitcoin Price Action In the middle of these structural shifts, Bitcoin’s price has kept traders busy. Recently BTC slid from earlier peaks to roughly 60,000–65,000 before finding buyers and moving back above 65,000 amid a broader rebound. Geopolitical headlines pushed risk appetite up and down, and those swings helped produce one of Bitcoin’s rougher stretches in weeks. Reports say traders are watching headlines closely because news can prompt sudden outsized moves. Related Reading: Bitcoin Edges Past Gold In Appeal, JPMorgan Says A Slow Transfer From Old Hands To New Buyers Long-term holders are selling some coins while institutions move in. That hand-off can feel messy. A sale wall forms when investors who bought early decide to take profit, and large institutions step in to absorb that supply. That process has been observed in other asset classes as they mature, and it does not automatically mean demand is weakening over the long run. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Data shows the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has continued to decline recently, with its value now hitting the lowest level since the 2022 bear market. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Is Deep Inside Extreme Fear Zone The “Fear & Greed Index” refers to an indicator created by Alternative that tracks the average sentiment present among traders in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency markets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Realized Loss Nears $900 Million, Highest Since FTX Crash The index determines the trader mentality using the data of the following five factors: trading volume, volatility, market cap dominance, social media sentiment, and Google Trends. To represent the sentiment, it makes use of a numerical scale running from zero to hundred. When the value of the indicator is above 53, it means the investors as a whole share a sentiment of greed. On the other hand, the metric being under 47 suggests the dominance of fear. Naturally, the index lying between these two cutoffs implies a neutral mentality is shared by the majority. Besides these three main zones, there are also two ‘extreme’ regions called the extreme fear (25 and below) and extreme greed (above 75). After the recent market downturn, sentiment among cryptocurrency traders has deteriorated into the former of the two. Here is how the latest value of the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index looks: As displayed above, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has a value of 9 at the moment, which is a pretty low level. In fact, this level is so deep into extreme fear that this is the first time in the current cycle that the metric has reached it. Below is a chart that shows how the current level of extreme fear lines up against the indicator’s historical data. From the graph, it’s visible that the last time the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index reached a value this low was back in June 2022, right in the middle of that year’s bear market. The latest drop in the metric to a single-digit value is a result of the price drawdown that BTC and other cryptocurrencies have faced since the last week of January. This decline in sentiment, however, may not be such a bad thing for the sector, if history is to go by. Often, an extremely fearful market facilitates bottom formations as underwater investors capitulate and resolute hands pick up their coins. During a bear market, however, the Fear & Greed Index is usually inside the zone for a notable duration before a bottom is reached. Related Reading: XRP Social Sentiment Still Bullish While Bitcoin Mood Sours If the recent shift in the sector reflects a transition to a bear market, then it only remains to be seen how long mood will be in extreme fear before relief arrives for Bitcoin and company. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $67,100, down 19% over the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) has officially entered a new bear market after suffering a steep 50% decline from its all‑time high. The leading crypto fell as low as $60,000, marking its weakest level since October 2024 and intensifying debate over how much further prices could slide before the next long‑term bottom is reached. As markets search for direction, crypto market expert NoLimit has shared a detailed framework outlining when and where he believes Bitcoin could ultimately bottom in this cycle. Rather than focusing solely on price targets, NoLimit argues that time plays an equally important role in identifying major turning points in Bitcoin’s market cycles. Potential Bitcoin Low In Oct–Nov According to his analysis, past Bitcoin bear markets show a relatively consistent pattern when measured from all‑time highs to cycle lows. Following the first Halving cycle in 2012, Bitcoin reached its bottom after 406 days. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Exposes Colossal Corporate Losses — Here’s Who’s Most Impacted The second Halving cycle in 2016 saw a bottom after 363 days, while the third cycle following the 2020 Halving bottomed after 376 days. The current cycle, following the 2024 Halving, has not yet completed this process. Based on these historical timeframes, NoLimit believes there is a high statistical likelihood that Bitcoin’s next major capitulation point will occur between October and November 2026. What NUPL Data Suggests In his analysis, NoLimit also highlighted an institutional‑grade on‑chain indicator known as Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, or NUPL. Historically, when NUPL enters what is referred to as the “blue zone,” Bitcoin has reached generational lows. Related Reading: Analyst Who Predicted XRP’s 600% Rally Forecasts The Bottom And A Target Of $10 This signal successfully identified the bottom during the 2018 bear market, the COVID‑19 crash, and the 2022 market low. According to NoLimit, Bitcoin has not yet entered this zone in the current cycle and remains some distance away from it. Taking all factors into account, NoLimit said he would not be surprised to see Bitcoin trading between $45,000 and $50,000 by the end of 2026. He described that range as his ultimate bottom target. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin experienced a steep decline over the last 24 hours, pushing its price to approximately $60,000 amid an accelerated selloff comparable to the 2022 FTX collapse. BTC had recovered to $69,800 as of press time, according to CryptoSlate data. Still, Glassnode data helped frame the extent to which the price had slipped relative to widely […]
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On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Realized Loss has spiked to its highest level since November 2022 as investors have capitulated after the price crash. Bitcoin Realized Loss Has Hit A Value Of $889 Million In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about the latest trend in the Bitcoin Realized Loss. This indicator measures, as its name suggests, the total amount of loss that investors on the network are ‘realizing’ with their transactions. Related Reading: XRP Social Sentiment Still Bullish While Bitcoin Mood Sours This metric works by going through the transaction history of each coin being sold to see at what price it changed hands before this. If the previous selling price was greater than the latest spot price for any token, then its sale is considered to be resulting in some loss realization. The exact degree of loss involved in the transaction is equal to the difference between the two prices. The Realized Loss sums up this value for all loss transfers to find the total for the network. A counterpart indicator called the Realized Profit deals with the transactions of the opposite type (that is, those with a cost basis lower than the latest selling value). Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the 7-day moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin Realized Loss over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realized Loss has witnessed a sharp spike recently, implying investors have participated in a notable amount of loss-taking. Something to note is that the version of the metric used by the analytics firm here is the “entity-adjusted” one, meaning that it only tracks transactions occurring between two different entities, rather than just two addresses. Glassnode defines an “entity” to be a cluster of addresses that it has determined to belong to the same owner. In the context of the Realized Loss, the entity-adjusted indicator filters out transactions occurring between the wallets of the same investor. These naturally never involve a true realization of loss (or profit), so removing them from the data provides a more accurate representation of the market. Applying for this filtration, the 7-day MA Realized Loss hit a peak value of $889 million on Wednesday. This is the highest single-day spike in the metric since November 2022, when the market crashed to the bear market bottom following the collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX. Related Reading: Social Media Now Talking Sub-$60,000 Bitcoin Prices As Fear Rises The latest investor capitulation has arrived as Bitcoin has been in freefall, with its price now breaking below the $70,000 level. It now remains to be seen whether the loss-taking will sustain or if investor panic will subside in the coming days. BTC Price Bitcoin has taken a blow of more than 21% over the past week that has taken its price to the $66,700 level. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
Crypto’s latest drawdown hit the majors in size: bitcoin fell about 8.1% over the past 24 hours and is down roughly 29.5% over the past 30 days, while Ether dropped about 9.4% on the day and about 41.4% over the past month; XRP was off about 10.3% in 24 hours and roughly 42.7% over 30 days, and Solana slid about 12.3% on the day and around 42.8% over the month. While many point to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as next US Federal Reserve chair, renowned macro analyst Alex Krüger argued on X on Friday that it is the cumulative effect of narrative fatigue, weakening marginal demand, and a macro regime wake-up call that hit after the market had already started to roll over. What Went Wrong For Crypto? Krüger framed the move as a momentum break that turned into a seller’s market. In his telling, the “10/10 slaughter” — a nod to the sharpness of the unwind, with a pointed aside about whether he’d “get sued” for mentioning Binance — was less a mystery than a pileup of factors that steadily drained risk appetite and then yanked away the last hope of a liquidity tailwind. Related Reading: Bitwise CIO Warns Market Is Facing A ‘Full-Bore’ Crypto Winter, Not A Pullback He pointed first to the hangover from Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs), and then to a reversal in flows tied to criminal networks. Krüger said “major flows reversed after the DoJ indictment of the Cambodian Prince Group last October,” describing it as a material shift in demand that the market may have been underappreciating while price was still holding up. What went wrong with crypto 1. 10/10 slaughter (will I get sued if I mention Binance?). 2. Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) hangover. 3. Reversed flows from crime syndicates: major flows reversed after the DoJ indictment of the Cambodian Prince Group last October. 4. Quantum… — Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) February 6, 2026 Two other themes in his post leaned explicitly on fear and opportunity cost. Krüger flagged “quantum fears (real)” as a psychological overhang, and then argued that the AI boom has become a direct competitor for both capital and talent. He said the pivot isn’t subtle: “capital pivoting to AI,” “talent pivoting to AI,” and even “miners pivoting to AI,” all of which tighten the loop around crypto’s ability to reaccelerate. In parallel, he suggested the market’s global bid has narrowed. Krüger cited a “perception of Bitcoin as American,” adding that there are “few Chinese buyers,” a contrast with the participation he said had been “behind the metals uptrend in large numbers.” He also described a structural shift in who “owns” the trade. “The Swamp & Institutions taking over,” he wrote, arguing the market has moved from “Cypherpunk/Rebel tech to ETF tech.” In his framing, crypto used to be “for misfits & geniuses,” but now “it’s a line item in a 401k” — a change that, in his view, crowds out the volatility-driven momentum that historically pulled in OGs and retail. Other pressure points were more familiar: political risk around Trump association (“what happens once Democrats are back?”), “minimal innovation (since Hyperliquid),” and the brutal reflexivity of the Solana memecoin cycle — “Solana casino massacre (thank Pump Fun & the Memecoin Supercycle).” He paired that with a supply critique: “There are 29.91 million cryptocurrencies tracked by CoinMarketCap,” he wrote, warning that “almost every coin in the top 200 is grossly overvalued” alongside “never ending” launches that “pump then dump to oblivion where only insiders profit.” He even declared the “dead digital gold narrative” as another drag on marginal buyers. Related Reading: Crypto Isn’t Broken, It’s A US Liquidity Squeeze, Says Raoul Pal The mechanical result, Krüger said, was straightforward: “sellers dumping more aggressively than usual on every pump,” while “buyers not showing up to buy the dips as much any longer.” Then came what he framed as the macro trigger that hardened the selloff. “And then came the Warsh nomination (beating Hassett and Rieder), and the market suddenly became deeply aware that Warsh is a strong advocate of a small balance sheet: goodbye Quantitative Easing (QE) and Yield Curve Control (YCC) dreams, hello Quantitative Tightening (QT) fears. That is what happened.” Krüger stressed he was describing the past, not forecasting the next move, arguing the damage has already been done. Still, he noted that “volume, liquidations, implied volatility and options skew indicate that a local bottom is likely in.” In replies, the conversation turned toward what crypto might still be for in an AI-led cycle. A user said the rotation “makes sense,” but argued the bigger upside is in “agent stacks” that could eventually “manage crypto liquidity,” positioning crypto rails as infrastructure for machine-to-machine value transfer. Krüger largely agreed on the asymmetry. “I don’t know. I was hoping momentum. Momentum can do magic,” he wrote. “I’m very concerned about points #3 and #4. Saylor just started a new initiative on #4, maybe that helps. Reality is crypto can’t compete with AI. It’s impossible. But it could be used by AI. That’s high quality hopium right there. Agent-to-Agent payments would be better served on crypto rails.” At press time, BTC traded at $66,029. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is showing early signs of recovery after falling sharply in recent weeks. The world’s largest cryptocurrency bounced from around the $60,000 level and has moved modestly higher, giving investors some hope that the worst part of the recent correction may be ending. However, analysts say it is still too early to confirm that the …
Bitcoin’s market shook hard on a single day of trading, sending prices tumbling to $65,000 and nerves flaring. Reports note the move wiped out a big chunk of recent gains and pushed many recent buyers into loss. Price action this sharp rarely comes without a story behind it — and this one had several threads pulling at once. Related Reading: Polygon Hits $3.50 Billion In Payments As Crypto Activity Expands Bitcoin: Capitulation And Selling Pressure According to Glassnode, the spike in forced sales is one of the biggest seen in about two years. Traders who had used borrowed money were hit first. Liquidations swept through positions, and many coins moved from hands that bought recently to hands that sold quickly. Realized losses climbed to the highest levels since late 2022, with close to $890 million a day recorded on a seven-day average. The sell-off unfolded over roughly 10 hours of intense trading, with panic and program trades both playing a role. The $BTC capitulation metric has printed its second-largest spike in two years, highlighting a sharp escalation in forced selling. These stress events typically coincide with accelerated de-risking and elevated volatility as market participants reset positioning.… pic.twitter.com/mcvVqXJcYq — glassnode (@glassnode) February 5, 2026 Prices Fall Below Buyer Cost Lines Reports say Bitcoin’s market price has fallen under several on-chain cost markers that many investors watch. Short-term buyers who picked up coins in recent months now sit below their purchase price. That creates a kind of pressure where emotional selling can feed into more selling. Active investor costs and broader market averages were all above the spot price, which made the slide feel deeper. When a market drops under the average cost of recent buyers, volatility tends to rise and traders begin hunting for the next reliable support. News Flow And Timing The move comes after a run of strong gains earlier in the year. Price was last at these levels back in November 2024, just before US President Donald Trump won his reelection. That timing put the fall in sharper relief for some observers who had started to see those prior highs as a fresh floor. Headlines and big trades added friction to the market. Social chatter and rapid shifts in order books amplified selling, and some long-term holders did move to lock in gains or cut risk. Related Reading: Russia’s Biggest Exchange To Launch XRP Indices And Futures What The Numbers Tell Us Based on on-chain measures, the recent drop forced a large group of holders to realize losses, not just paper losses but actual transactions where coins left wallets at a lower price than they were bought. That kind of clearing can remove built-up leverage and leave a cleaner market on the other side. It also leaves fewer buyers near current levels, which means rebounds can be choppy and uneven. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says the sell-off reflects cycle dynamics and macro risk-off forces — not a repeat of 2022’s systemic collapse.
Big Tech companies' planned $500 billion war chest to dominate artificial intelligence could offer a lifeline to a Bitcoin mining industry teetering on the edge of capitulation. The headline numbers are eye-watering. Alphabet, Google’s parent, alone plans to spend as much as $185 billion this year. However, the capital surge will involve more than buying […]
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BTC price rebounded to nearly $69,500 after briefly breaking down toward $60,000 in recent week, triggering debate over whether the move reflects stabilization or a classic dead-cat bounce. While crowd sentiment has flipped deeply bearish, on-chain data shows rising whale exchange activity, adding complexity to Bitcoin’s short-term outlook. Crowd Psychology Turns Deeply Bearish After Sharp …
The debate over whether the XRP price could reach $10,000 has reignited in the crypto market. However, this time, one crypto analyst challenges the common argument that market capitalization could limit XRP’s growth. According to the analyst, this claim is flawed and does not take into context XRP’s liquidity and utility as a global settlement currency. Why Market Cap Does Not Limit Price Surge To $10,000 Some critics argue that XRP would never hit $10,000 because doing so would make its market capitalization exceed the global money supply. Market analyst Crypto_Luke has addressed this misconception in a recent X post, emphasizing that market cap does not limit the XRP price in any way. Related Reading: Expert Explains Why The Market Cap Theory Doesn’t Apply To XRP The analyst explained that market cap is simply the last traded price multiplied by a cryptocurrency’s circulating supply, which is a snapshot of overall trading activity and not a reflection of how much money is required to achieve a certain price. He noted that the common criticism that market capitalization represents the amount of money invested in an asset is inaccurate. One reason Crypto_Luke believes the market cap argument is flawed is that it fails to account for how XRP operates. Unlike assets designed primarily for storing value, such as BTC, XRP is designed for rapid liquidity and settlement across global corridors. He stated that XRP can be used multiple times in a single day, facilitating transactions without requiring additional capital. As a result, he suggests that XRP’s price is determined by its “actively traded float,” rather than by the total supply that is idle. In his analysis, Crypto_Luke emphasized that liquidity and price adjustments go hand-in-hand in XRP’s design. He explained that assets that move quickly through settlements allow the blockchain network to satisfy demand without requiring equivalent dollar-for-dollar backing. As XRP’s transaction volume increases, its price naturally adjusts to reflect the value of its utility rather than a fixed market cap. The analyst noted that XRP’s supply was intentionally designed to be large, fixed, and non-reissuable. This structure supports a multi-trillion-dollar liquidity pool and enables the network to handle high-volume settlement throughput. XRP Market Cap Crashes Nearly 10% More recently, XRP faces additional downward pressure, as CMC data shows that the cryptocurrency’s market capitalization has crashed by nearly 10%. As of writing, XRP’s market cap has fallen to approximately $79.25 billion following a massive decline in its price over the past 24 hours. Related Reading: XRP Completes ‘Super Guppy Compression’ Against Bitcoin, Next Target Emerges The downturn aligns with the broader market sell-off across major cryptocurrencies, as sentiment has become increasingly bearish. XRP has been among the worst affected, with its price slipping toward $1.3, marking its lowest levels since 2024. The cryptocurrency shows no clear signs of a rebound despite a recent surge in daily trading volume, which has increased by more than 148%. Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview.com
Some recipients reportedly sold the coins before the exchange's "internal control system and promptly restricted transactions."
The global cryptocurrency market has lost about $720 billion in value since the start of the year, with total market capitalization falling from $2.97 trillion to about $2.25 trillion in just over five weeks. Large holders selling as retail investors buy Blockchain data shows that large Bitcoin holders, often referred to as “whales,” have been …
The crypto market has come under intense selling pressure, with more than $350 billion wiped off total market capitalization. Similar downturns in the past have usually been accompanied by falling participation and capital exiting the space. This time, however, the setup looks different. Instead of drying up, capital has surged, with stablecoin inflows doubling even …
MARA's Bitcoin transfer highlights the volatility and investor uncertainty in crypto markets, impacting related stocks and market sentiment.
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The crypto market has entered a fragile phase as Bitcoin dropped under the critical $70,000 level and bounced off $60,000, a zone that has increasingly acted as a gravitational pull rather than a launchpad. This subdued price action came as the stablecoin market has surged, with Tether and Circle minting billions of dollars’ worth of […]
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Today, the flagship cryptocurrency Bitcoin price saw a massive 14% crash to the $60,000 level before recovering toward $65,000 after several technical breakdown signals appeared at once. The sharp fall triggered panic selling, heavy liquidations, and pushed market sentiment into extreme fear across crypto traders. Extreme Fear and Bitcoin RSI Signals Show Panic Conditions On …
Bitcoin is on course to see five red months in a row, as it is currently down over 16% to start this month after closing the last four consecutive months in the red. The Bitcoin decline has also impacted the crypto market, which has lost a significant portion of its market value during this period. Bitcoin Facing Five Red Months As Crypto Market Struggles Cryptorank data show that Bitcoin is now facing its fifth consecutive red month, down 16% this month after closing October, November, December, and January in the red. The last time this happened to BTC was in 2018, when it entered a bear market after reaching record highs in 2017. The crypto market is also facing downside pressure, having lost nearly half of its market value since October. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Just Hit A 15-Year Trendline After The Crash, What This Means Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has stated that October 2025 marked the top for Bitcoin and the crypto market and that they are now in a bear market. He noted that bear markets don’t last and that better times will come. He further opined that October 2026 is a good time for a market low, though he added that he is open to the bottom occurring sooner if the meltdown accelerates. Bitcoin crashed over 13% yesterday, dropping to as low as $60,000 as the crypto market sell-off accelerated. A number of factors are believed to have contributed to this bearish price action, including the Fed’s hawkish pivot following last week’s FOMC meeting, where they decided to hold rates steady. Furthermore, Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, and the markets reacted negatively to the nomination. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to face significant selling pressure from the BTC ETFs, which have recorded three consecutive months of net outflows. SoSoValue data show these funds are on course to record a fourth straight month of net outflows, with $690 million in net outflows this month. BTC Could Still Drop To $42,000 Veteran trader Peter Brandt predicted that a Bitcoin drop to $42,000 was on the cards, but that it is unlikely to go much lower. This came as he stated that the bulls would not need to suffer too “far south of $42,000” if BTC digs into the Banana peel as deeply as in past bear market cycles. He added that it is a “hop, skip, and jump” from that level. The broader crypto market is also expected to find a bottom when BTC bottoms. Related Reading: Bitcoin Wave 3 Crash: What’s Next As Price Makes A Rebound? In an earlier X post, Brandt stated that Bitcoin’s decline has all “the fingerprints of campaign selling, not retail liquidation” and that it is always unknown when such a pattern ends. His comment came just before the BTC decline below $63,000, which he highlighted as the next target for the leading crypto. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $65,800, down over 6% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin’s role in big-money talks has shifted in recent weeks. Reports say analysts at JPMorgan now see Bitcoin as more attractive than gold for long-term investors once you adjust how risk is counted. That’s a notable twist given how deeply gold has been ingrained as the go-to safe haven for decades. Related Reading: Russia’s Biggest Exchange To Launch XRP Indices And Futures Gold’s climb has been hard to ignore. After swinging wildly, gold prices rallied back to around $5,000 per ounce following a sharp sell-off earlier in February, with major banks projecting further strength later in 2026. This rebound came after gold reached record highs, and JPMorgan even forecasts it could hit roughly $6,300 per ounce by year-end. At the same time, Bitcoin’s own numbers have looked shaky. Since peaking above $126,000, Bitcoin has slid nearly 50%, settling nearer $65,000-$70,000 in early February. That plunge left BTC below its estimated production cost of around $87,000, according to analysts. A Bridge Between Price And Risk Reports say the real math behind JPMorgan’s view isn’t just about where these assets sit today. It’s about how wild their price swings have been. The soaring price came with rising unpredictability — gold’s volatility has spiked as markets reacted to geopolitical upheaval and macroeconomic moves. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s volatility has softened from its usual extremes. This convergence shows up in what’s called the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio. According to JPMorgan, that ratio has plunged to around 1.5, a record low. On its face, that means Bitcoin is carrying only about 1.5 times the risk of gold — tighter than historical norms. That shift makes risk-adjusted returns more competitive for BTC. Under this framework, analysts figure Bitcoin’s market capitalization would have to rise dramatically to match the roughly $8 trillion private sector investment held in gold. If that happened, implied models point to Bitcoin prices near $266,000. JPMorgan says that is not an expected short-term target, but the theoretical math illustrates how much room exists if sentiment changes. Market Movements Tell Another Story In the broader market, tokens like XRP, Ethereum, and Solana have been caught up in the same risk sell-off that clipped Bitcoin. These cryptos have seen sharp drops in recent sessions as traders fled riskier bets, testing buying interest and liquidity conditions. Moves like these show that the relative calm in volatility isn’t guaranteed to last, especially when markets tighten. Gold’s oscillations have also tested investor nerves. Earlier in 2026, gold endured some of its most extreme swings ever — including double-digit plunges and rebounds that challenged its reputation as the “stable” safe haven. But the rebound to near $5,000 per ounce underlines demand from defensive buyers. Related Reading: Polygon Hits $3.50 Billion In Payments As Crypto Activity Expands What Investors Are Weighing Based on reports, JPMorgan’s stance doesn’t say Bitcoin will instantly replace gold in portfolios. Instead, analysts are noting how relative risk and reward are being measured today. Bitcoin’s lower recent volatility plus its huge theoretical upside based on gold’s market size make it a compelling candidate for some long-range thinking. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Crypto markets extended the downside move today, slipping deeper into a high-volatility sell-off that has shaken both spot and derivatives traders. Bitcoin price dropped nearly 8.6%, hovering near the $65,000 level, while Ethereum and major altcoins followed with sharp intraday losses. The intensity of the move points to more than routine profit-taking. With liquidations accelerating …
Bitcoin’s recent fall has triggered one of the biggest loss-taking events in its history, illustrating how quickly market sentiment has shifted after months of strong gains. As prices dropped nearly 10% to around $64,000, Bitcoin hit its lowest level since late 2024. This sharp move pushed many investors to sell their holdings at a loss. …
The Bitcoin price is currently trading under immense bearish pressure, and the downtrend might not yet be over. Bitcoin has now broken below $70,000 and has extended its decline below $65,000. This price action is part of an extended corrective phase that began after Bitcoin topped out at $126,000 in October 2025, and crypto participants have different outlooks as to when the correction will reach a bottom. Amid the uncertainty, an outlook from a crypto analyst known as Sherlock is gaining traction on X, as it points to historical market bottoms that suggest Bitcoin may still be headed significantly lower. Past Drawdowns Show A Clear Pattern Across Bitcoin Cycles Sherlock’s analysis focuses on how deep Bitcoin has fallen during past bear markets and how those declines have changed as the asset has matured over the years. According to the data he highlighted, Bitcoin’s 2011 cycle saw a drawdown of about 93% from peak to trough. This is the highest correction for the Bitcoin price to date. That figure reduced to about 86% in 2015, then to 84% in 2018, and further to around 77% during the 2022 bear market. Related Reading: One Month In And 10% Of Dogecoin Millionaires Have Already Disappeared In 2026 – Details The consistent takeaway from these cycles is that each successive drawdown has been smaller than the last. This isn’t surprising, as Bitcoin and the entire crypto market have been growing in size, liquidity, and participation over time. Using that trend as a guide, the next major bottom correction should continue this progression. The projection is that the correction should drop from 77% in the 2022 bear market to 70% in the current price action. If the drawdown compresses to about 70% in the current cycle, measured from the $126,000 all-time high, then the bottom would land around the $38,000 region. Dismissing Higher Bottom Targets Like $69,000 And $50,000 The projection by Sherlock received a lot of views and comments on X, with some market participants noting that reflexivity and increased institutional involvement should reduce downside risk this time around. One notable response suggested that when comparing prior bottom-to-top moves against top-to-bottom declines, Bitcoin’s next drawdown should be closer to 55% or 60%, instead of 70%. Sherlock pushed back on that view by noting how reflexivity can amplify downside moves just as easily as it causes rallies. “Good luck buying your bottom at $69,000, $60,000 and $50,000,” he said. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Could Quickly Revisit $81,000 Again After The Crash For the time being, Bitcoin is caught between aggressive sell-offs and growing concern that the larger corrective phase is not complete. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $64,850, having rebounded from an intraday low of $60,255, according to data from CoinGecko. The recent price action means Bitcoin is back to trading at its lowest levels since October 2024. If Bitcoin were to revisit the $38,000 area, it would represent a return to price levels last seen during the early stages of the bull market. The last time Bitcoin traded around $38,000 was in October 2023. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin printed one of the largest ever daily candles to the downside on Thursday, sliding more than 15%, roughly $10,800, in a move that rippled through derivatives, spot venues, and the US Bitcoin ETF complex. The scale of the drop is what made it stand out. Not just the percentage drawdown, but the mix of stress signals hitting at once: implied volatility spiking, volumes exploding, and momentum gauges collapsing into levels typically associated with forced selling rather than discretionary risk reduction. Bitcoin Crash Sparks Capitulation Signals Real Vision’s Jamie Coutts framed the session as a “capitulation watch,” pointing to a cluster of metrics rarely seen together. He highlighted Bitcoin implied volatility via BVIV at 88.55, “closing in on the FTX-collapse peak of 105,” and noted Coinbase logged its eighth-largest trading day ever by USD value, with $3.34 billion changing hands—roughly 54,000 BTC at ~$62,000. Related Reading: PlanB Lays Out Four Bitcoin Bear-Market Scenarios Coutts also underscored how extreme the momentum reset looked on daily charts, citing a daily RSI of 15.64, “at or below March 2020 COVID crash lows.” He added: “Margin calls are firing. Forced liquidations are likely still working through the system. This has the signature of a capitulation event, but capitulation can be a process, not a single candle (unless we get a massive wick!). These conditions can persist for weeks or even months before a durable low forms.” Macro trader Alex Krüger stopped short of a price target for the lows, but argued the market was registering the kind of positioning and pricing distortions that tend to cluster around turning points in time. “Friends I really do not know where the bitcoin bottom is but I can recognize extreme conditions that you only see close to bottoms in time, such as extreme negative funding, options skew at levels only seen once before since 2022 (FTX day), and volumes & liquidations at extraordinary levels,” he wrote. “You also have some monster shorts that opened between 64k and 60k, material for a short squeeze sending price to 68k, and if we see so then everyone will start talking about the bottom.” Krüger’s caveat was just as direct: “In the meantime of course equities need to hold. And having a bottom in does not mean that you will see a major trend from here.” Galaxy’s Alex Thorn described the tape as historically stretched on RSI measures, saying bitcoin was “the most oversold today than any day since 3AC blew up in June 2022 (30d RSI),” and calling it “basically in the top 3 oversold events ever,” alongside November 2018 and June 2022. The US spot Bitcoin ETF market didn’t cushion the move, it amplified the day’s activity. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Balchunas said BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) “just crushed its daily volume record with $10b worth of shares traded” as the fund’s price fell 13%, its second-worst daily drop since launch. Head of Research for Anchorage Digital David Lawant added that IBIT alone trading above $10 billion was the highest since launch, beating prior records by 69% in shares and 27% in USD volume. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Exposes Colossal Corporate Losses — Here’s Who’s Most Impacted Positioning data hinted at a complex, two-sided ETF ecosystem. Head of Research at K33 Research Vetle Lunde noted net equivalent short exposure in short BTC ETFs was nearing the November 2022 peak at 7,745 BTC, while 2x leveraged long BTC ETFs—products that didn’t exist then—currently hold 39,590 BTC, “at levels not seen since Mar 24.” Volatility remained the throughline. ProCap CIO Jeff Park said: “Bitcoin implied vol is now at 75%. This is the highest level since the ETF launch in 2024. It is also finally higher than gold volatility. Know it’s a lot of pain right now, but this is all part of the process required for Bitcoin to make new highs. The melt up will be fast.” At press time, BTC rebounded from $60,000 to roughly $64,900, a gain of about 9% from the session low. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Nasdaq-listed bitcoin miner MARA moved roughly 1317 BTC ($87.4 million) in the past 13 hours, onchain data shows.
Bitcoin is struggling to hold the $70,000 level as persistent selling pressure weighs on market sentiment and momentum. After months of volatility, recent price action suggests a fragile structure, with buyers repeatedly failing to reclaim higher resistance zones. Analysts increasingly warn that downside risks remain elevated as short-term investors continue to absorb losses rather than stepping in aggressively to accumulate. Related Reading: Are We Near A Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom? History Offers A Framework A recent report from analyst Axel Adler highlights mounting stress among short-term holders. Data from the Bitcoin Short-Term Holders SOPR indicator shows that many participants are now realizing losses, with this cohort sitting roughly 25% below their average acquisition cost. The SOPR metric, which compares selling price to purchase price, has dropped to 0.949, while its 7-day average remains near 0.97. Values below 1.0 confirm that coins are being sold at a loss, often reflecting forced liquidations or reactive selling behavior. Notably, the indicator has stayed below this threshold since mid-January, signaling sustained pressure rather than a short-lived correction. Historically, prolonged SOPR weakness alongside price stabilization can indicate seller exhaustion. However, a decisive move back above 1.0 would be required to confirm a shift in market regime. Until then, the risk of further downside cannot be ruled out. Short-Term Holder MVRV Signals Deep Unrealized Losses Axel Adler also points to the Bitcoin Short-Term Holder MVRV indicator as further evidence of mounting stress among recent market participants. This metric compares the current market price with the average acquisition price of short-term holders, offering a clear view of unrealized profitability. When MVRV falls below 1.0, it indicates that this cohort is, on average, holding positions at a loss rather than in profit. Recent data shows the STH MVRV dropping sharply to around 0.752, with the cohort’s realized price near $95,400. With Bitcoin trading close to $71,700, short-term holders are roughly 25% underwater. The gap between market price and their cost basis—about $23,700—is currently the widest observed in this cycle, highlighting the scale of recent downside pressure. Historically, MVRV readings approaching or falling below the 0.8 level have often coincided with accumulation phases or local market bottoms. However, such signals are not sufficient on their own. Confirmation typically requires price stabilization alongside a recovery in SOPR above 1.0, indicating that forced selling has eased. Until those conditions emerge, the data suggests continued fragility despite increasing signs of capitulation. Related Reading: Ethereum Transfer Surge Mirrors 2018 And 2021 Peaks – What Happens Next? Bitcoin Breaks Key Weekly Support As Downtrend Accelerates Bitcoin’s weekly structure shows clear deterioration after price decisively broke below the mid-range support that had previously held near the $75K area. The latest candle reflects strong downside momentum, pushing BTC toward the $70K zone while trading well below the 50-week moving average. Historically, sustained trading under this average tends to coincide with corrective or transitional bear phases rather than bullish continuation. The 100-week moving average, currently positioned slightly above $80K, has shifted from support to resistance. The market requires a reclaim of this level to stabilize sentiment. Meanwhile, the 200-week average continues to trend upward near the $55K–$60K region, marking a deeper macro support band if selling pressure persists. Related Reading: Bitcoin Unrealized Losses Reach 22% – Still No Capitulation Phase Volume expansion accompanying the latest decline suggests active distribution rather than low-liquidity drift. However, capitulation phases often show similar volume characteristics, meaning interpretation depends on whether follow-through selling continues or begins to fade. Structurally, BTC now faces a critical test. Holding above the $68K–$70K range could allow consolidation before a potential recovery attempt. Failure to stabilize there would increase the probability of a deeper retracement toward longer-term moving average support, keeping the broader market cautious despite growing oversold conditions. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Crypto markets remain under pressure as Bitcoin struggles to regain footing, with downside risks increasingly centered around the $50,000 level. Risk appetite has thinned, ETF outflows have accelerated, and trader confidence across majors like Bitcoin and Ethereum continues to erode. XRP has not been immune to the sell-off. The price has moved lower alongside the …
The latest downturn in Bitcoin (BTC) has begun to weigh heavily on publicly listed companies that built their balance sheets around the market’s leading cryptocurrency. On Thursday, Bitcoin hovered near the $65,000 level, continuing the sharp decline that began last October. This has impacted equity markets, causing the shares of crypto-exposed firms to decline significantly. Bitcoin Slide Pressures Digital Asset Treasury Firms According to a Reuters report, the renewed volatility in digital assets is dragging down the stock prices of companies that hold Bitcoin and other tokens, raising concerns that the stress could spread more broadly across the sector. The number of publicly traded firms investing in cryptocurrencies surged last year, as many executives bet that digital assets would continue to appreciate over the long-term. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crashes Below $67,000 As Stifel Warns Of Potential Drop To $38,000 However, the backdrop has shifted. Investor anxiety over stretched valuations in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, combined with uncertainty surrounding the future path of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts, has weighed on risk assets more broadly. As a result, Bitcoin has slid to its lowest level since October 2024, putting pressure on companies whose business models rely on holding digital assets. Many of these digital asset treasury firms saw their shares wobble sharply on Thursday. Seven Major Companies Suffer Strategy (previously MicroStrategy), the largest corporate BTC holder with over 700,000 coins, has been among the hardest hit. Its shares have fallen from around $457 in July to as low as $106 on Thursday. In December, the company cut its 2025 earnings outlook, pointing to weakness in Bitcoin prices, and announced plans to establish a reserve to help support dividend payments. The firm led by Michael Saylor said it now expects its full‑year results to range anywhere from a $6.3 billion profit to a $5.5 billion loss, a sharp downgrade from its earlier forecast of a $24 billion net profit. Related Reading: Ripple Throws Weight Behind Hyperliquid, Fueling HYPE’s Rally Toward Crucial Levels Other Bitcoin‑focused firms also felt the impact. Shares of the UK‑based Smarter Web Company fell nearly 18% on Thursday. Rival Bitcoin buyers Nakamoto Inc and Japan’s Metaplanet were also under pressure, dropping almost 9% and more than 7%, respectively. However, the sell-off pressure has not been limited to companies holding only BTC. On Thursday, crypto-related firms that stockpiled other digital tokens also traded lower amid the correction affecting broader digital asset prices. Alt5 Sigma, which announced last year that it would accumulate the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial (WLFI) token, saw its shares drop 8.4%. Similarly, SharpLink Gaming, which holds Ethereum (ETH), declined about 8%, while Forward Industries, a holder of Solana (SOL), slid nearly 6%. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com