CoinShares said quantum computers would have to become 100,000 times more powerful, which could take a decade of scientific progress, to break Bitcoin.
Bitcoin trades every minute of every day, but CME Bitcoin futures stop for the weekend. That mismatch is how a CME gap is born, and why it keeps turning up in the middle of the most stressful weeks. A CME gap is the blank space on a CME futures chart between Friday’s final traded level […]
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The cryptocurrency market moved higher today, with the total market value rising about 3% to around $2.42 trillion as several major digital assets posted gains. Bitcoin climbed above $71,000, while Ethereum, XRP and other leading tokens also advanced, showing renewed buying activity after weeks of heavy selling. Rumors of U.S. Crypto Reserves Boost Sentiment One …
The progress of quantum computing has raised new questions about the long-term security of Bitcoin, but digital asset manager CoinShares says the threat remains distant and manageable. According to the firm, while quantum computers could one day challenge certain cryptographic systems used by Bitcoin, the technology required to do so is still many years away. …
Bitcoin’s slide through $65,000 and toward $60,000 felt like a stress test the market had been postponing. The move was sharp enough to force a reset in positioning, and broad enough to pull the conversation away from single-catalyst explanations. Even mainstream media described the week as Bitcoin’s worst weekly performance since late 2022, with price briefly […]
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Since reaching its current all-time-high price of $126,000 in October last year, the Bitcoin market has been on a sell-off, translating into surmounting bear pressure. As a result, the flagship cryptocurrency has maintained a steady decline, falling until it recently reached $60,000 — a deviation of more than 52% from its all-time high. Bitcoin currently seems to be seeing a rebound, but price action alone reflects that it could as well be one of its short-term recoveries. Interestingly, a recent on-chain evaluation suggests that the current upward movement may be driven by a significant underlying metric. Related Reading: Bitcoin Taker Buy Ratio Signals Peak Bearish Sentiment — Relief Soon? What The Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio Is Saying In a Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, Darkfost reveals that the Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio is now at a zone historically relevant to the ends of bear markets. The Sharpe Ratio is a risk-adjusted performance metric that measures how much return an asset (Bitcoin, in this case) generates for risk taken. A high ratio signals that returns are strong in relation to risks taken; a declining ratio, on the other hand, reflects weakening returns, while risk remains elevated. On the severe end of the metric, a very low or negative Sharpe Ratio is a sign that market participants are taking very high risks for poor or negative returns. It is worth noting that very low Sharpe ratios are frequently seen during deep bear markets or even capitulation phases. According to historical data, Darkfost explains that the Sharpe Ratio is currently at a level so low as to be reminiscent of the final phases of past bear markets. This means that the Bitcoin price holds a higher practical risk, compared to returns, for current investors. Notably, the Sharpe ratio is not just at a low point, but continues in a steady state of decline. This, according to the market quant, is a sign that Bitcoin’s performance is yet to be attractive to any willing risk-taker. However, it is this specific dynamic that sets the pace for a turnaround in Bitcoin’s price. This is because sustained poor returns typically force capitulation events, where weaker hands are flushed out; this eventually sets the stage for renewed accumulation among stronger hands. Related Reading: Forget A Bitcoin Yearly Top, BTC Price Might Have Hit A 16-Year Cyclical Peak Two Main Approaches To Consider In This Scenario: Analyst Seeing as the current market condition is still mostly uncertain, Darkfost offers two ways to engage the current scenario. First, the analyst states that investors could begin increasing exposure gradually, and in line with the ratio’s movement towards lower risk zones. Second, Darkfost explains that a market participant could decide to wait for clear improvements in the Sharpe Ratio before entering the market at all. This is to serve as a confirmation strategy for the purpose of investor safety. However, Darkfost notes that the present bear phase could last a couple more months before any true reversal is seen, regardless of the signal being flashed by the Sharpe Ratio. As of this writing, Bitcoin stands at a $69,064 valuation. CoinMarketCap data reflects a 1.71% loss over the past day. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
Bitcoin traded quietly over the weekend, remaining below the $70,000 level as investors waited for stronger market direction. Analysts say the next upside target for buyers is a move above around $74,460, which could signal improving momentum and encourage more demand in the market. Possible Upside if Momentum Builds If buying interest strengthens, analysts believe …
Recent on-chain data shows that the Bitcoin price is currently at an important phase, raising suspicions as to whether the market is nearing a cyclical bottom. Mayer Multiple Falls To 0.6 — What This Means In a recent Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, on-chain analyst Ruga Research pointed out that the Bitcoin price now has a 40% negative deviation from its 200-day moving average. This on-chain observation revolves around the Bitcoin Mayer Multiple. Related Reading: Bitcoin Drifts Into A Deep Conviction Zone, Smart Money Stays Patient For context, the Mayer Multiple metric tracks how far a coin’s current price is trading above or below its long-term trend. This indicator is able to achieve this by dividing the price by its 200-day moving average. When the metric shows a reading of 1, it typically means that the Bitcoin price is trading approximately at the 200-day MA. Meanwhile, readings above 1 reflect that the Bitcoin price is at a premium relative to its long-term trend, while readings below 1 suggest that the price is trading at a discount. Historically, the metric has several thresholds in tandem with market conditions. For example, when the metric reaches levels above 2.4, it often signals that the Bitcoin price is at an overbought zone (also known as the bubble territory). As explained earlier, 1 – 1.5 represents the normal bull-market range, while 0.8 – 1.0 is typically the discount zone (where accumulation often occurs). Notably, when the price falls to regions below 0.8, it signals that the Bitcoin price has been oversold, as a result of capitulation events. Ruga Research revealed that the metric is currently at 0.6, reflecting an approximate 40% deviation below Bitcoin’s long-term trend. Hence, it is apparent that the Bitcoin price stands at a statistical extreme. Historical data where the Mayer Multiple fell to similar levels also adds credibility to this level’s relevance. In December 2018, the metric dropped to the 0.5 – 0.6 range (near Bitcoin’s market bottom around $3,200) before the price witnessed a more than 540% growth. Similarly, the metric fell to 0.5 owing to the COVID crash, followed by a recovery and expansion of the Bitcoin price by 1,100% in another 12-month period. This scenario also repeated in November 2022, with the Mayer Multiple falling to the same region, after which the BTC price soared by over 170%. However, Ruga Research mentioned, as a caveat, that the metric does not precisely spot where and when a bottom will form, but merely reveals what to expect in the long-term. It is also possible that the metric could record further downside moves or see some consolidation before going to the upside. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, Bitcoin is worth approximately $70,383, reflecting an over 2% jump in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Coinbase Premium Turns Positive Since Mid-January As Bitcoin Sees Price Relief Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin is navigating one of its deepest conviction zones yet, a phase that tests nerves more than it screams opportunity. While prices drift and fear dominates the market, smart money quietly accumulates, laying the groundwork for the next potential trend shift. Testing Conviction: Bitcoin In One Of Its Deepest Bear Market Zones Over the past few weeks, volatility has intensified, causing Bitcoin’s price to fall sharply. Marcus Corvinus highlighted that Bitcoin is trading in one of the deepest bear market zones in history, an area that doesn’t shout buy now but instead tests conviction and patience. These are the zones where price can drift aimlessly, bleed, and frustrate traders for weeks or even months. It’s not a sign of weakness; rather, strong hands are quietly accumulating while fear dominates the market narrative. Related Reading: Bitcoin Hits Deep Demand As Liquidity Finally Sweeps The Lows These phases are always messy and uncomfortable. Sentiment is crushed, capitulation feels endless, and confidence is at its lowest. Retail traders often panic or step aside during these times, which is exactly why these opportunities are so often missed. The real shift in trend rarely begins with hype or dramatic rallies. Instead, it starts with stabilization, absorption, and subtle recovery signals that are only visible to those who are patient. Quiet accumulation, a slowing of selling pressure, and small rebounds all hint that the market may be preparing for its next meaningful move. History doesn’t ring a bell at the bottom. It punishes doubt before it rewards belief. Marcus concludes that he is watching this zone very closely. While it won’t last forever, when it finally ends, most market participants will wish they had paid attention. The opportunity lies in recognizing the signals while others are blinded by fear and frustration. Resistance Holds At $71,000 — What It Means For Bulls Crypto analyst Crypto Candy noted that Bitcoin is moving largely as expected. As previously mentioned, a pullback from the $61,000–$58,000 zone toward the $70,000–$67,000 area was likely, and that scenario has unfolded precisely as predicted. The market reacted within this range, confirming the anticipated short-term price dynamics. Related Reading: Bitcoin Hits Deep Demand As Liquidity Finally Sweeps The Lows Crypto Candy also highlighted that although BTC touched $71,000, it was unable to close above that level on the daily timeframe. This reinforces the idea that until Bitcoin decisively reclaims this zone, short-term retracements remain the primary expectation. Looking ahead, Crypto Candy emphasized that a bullish scenario can only be considered in the short term if BTC closes above $71,000. Until that happens, the market may continue to test lower ranges, and retracements from the current zone are expected. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
The price of Bitcoin experienced one of the most bearish periods in its history over the past week, losing one crucial technical level after the other. According to data, the cryptocurrency market has seen $1 trillion worth of capital flow out since mid-January. With no doubt about the emergence of the bear season, investors are now approaching the market with greater skepticism and caution. One of the on-chain metrics highlighting this shift in behavior is the Bitcoin taker buy ratio, which has fallen to new lows. BTC Taker Buy Ratio Drops To 0.48 In a new Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, market analyst CryptoOnchain shared a fresh on-chain angle to the ongoing selling pressure in the Bitcoin market. This observation is based on the declining Taker Buy Ratio on Binance, the world’s largest centralized exchange by trading volume. Related Reading: Why The Market Cap Argument For XRP Price Not Reaching $10,000 Is ‘Flawed’ The Bitcoin Taker Buy Ratio is a sentiment indicator that estimates the proportion of trading volume owned by buyers against that of the sellers. Typically, values below 1 signal that taker sell volumes (aggressive selling) are outpacing taker buy volumes, which implies that sellers are overwhelming the buyers in the market. Highlighting data from CryptoQuant, CryptoOnchain revealed that the Bitcoin Taker Buy Ratio (14-day Moving Average) on Binance has dropped to 0.48, marking its lowest level since October 2025. Such a negative market sentiment on the world’s largest exchange spotlights a worrying trend in the general derivatives market. CryptoOnchain said: A drop to such a significant low suggests that sellers are overwhelmingly dominating the order book, aggressively hitting bids without sufficient buying resistance. As the crypto pundit also pointed out, this drop in the Bitcoin Taker Buy Ratio coincided with the recent price correction, which saw the premier cryptocurrency fall to around $61,000. CryptoOnchain noted that this metric needs to stabilize and begin to rise again if the BTC price is to see any relief. The Quicktake post concluded: For a potential reversal or a local bottom, we need to see this metric stabilize and begin to trend upwards, indicating that aggressive selling is exhausted and buyers are stepping back in. Until then, caution is advised as the momentum remains heavily in favor of the bears. Bitcoin Price At A Glance After one of the largest “red” days in the crypto market, the price of BTC appears to be recovering nicely, having returned above the $70,000 on Friday. As of this writing, the flagship cryptocurrency is valued at around $70,263, reflecting an over 11% price jump in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: 5 Red Months In A Row: What’s Going On With Bitcoin And The Crypto Market? Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
The crypto market that surged on Donald Trump’s campaign promise of a friendlier US posture is now back near where it started, after an 18-month round trip that added close to $2 trillion in value and then erased roughly the same amount. Data compiled by CryptoSlate put the total crypto market value at about $2.4 […]
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Crypto expert Tony Severino has opined that Bitcoin isn’t just showing signs of a yearly top but also that the BTC price may have hit a 16-year cyclical peak. This comes amid the flagship crypto’s recent crash to $60,000, which sparked fears of a bear market. Bitcoin May Be Showing Signs Of A Peak Amid BTC Price Crash To $60,000 In an X post, Severino alluded to the yearly Bitcoin chart, which he said looks like a 16-year cyclical peak rather than just a yearly top. The expert also outlined several reasons this appears to be a major cyclical top for the BTC price. First, he noted that the white candlesticks have been decreasing in size over time, while black candlesticks engulf more white candles with each appearance. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Just Hit A 15-Year Trendline After The Crash, What This Means Furthermore, Severino highlighted the Doji at the top of a rising wedge pattern while the Evening Star is in progress, which is a bearish reversal signal for the BTC price. Meanwhile, the Fischer Transform is crossing bearish with divergence, and the Stochastic is crossing bearish after being rejected from 80. He added that Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is falling back below 70 after making it above this level on the highest timeframe chart. His analysis comes as the BTC price continues to decline, suggesting the crypto market may be in a bear market after topping last October. Bitcoin dropped to as low as $60,000 earlier this week, suffering its largest daily decline since the FTX collapse. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has also opined that Bitcoin is in a bear market, predicting that it could still drop to as low as $42,000 before it sees a bottom. Reason For The Recent BTC Crash BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has commented on the reason for this recent Bitcoin crash, suggesting that it was due to external factors rather than part of an ongoing bear market. In an X post, he stated that the BTC price dump was probably due to a dealer hedging off the back of BlackRock’s BTC ETF structured products. Notably, BlackRock’s IBIT saw a record trading volume of $10 billion on the day of this crash to $60,000. Related Reading: Here’s What To Expect If The Bitcoin Price Maintains Support Above $74,400 Hayes’ comment comes on the back of Bitcoin’s rebound above $70,000, with the flagship crypto recording one of its largest ever daily gains yesterday following the crash to $60,000. Galaxy Digital’s Head of Research, Alex Thorn, suggested that the drop to $60,000 may mark the bottom for the BTC price. This came as he noted that the 200-week MA, which is around $60,000, has historically been a strong entry point for long-term investors. At the time of writing, the BTC price is trading at around $70,000, up over 6% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin’s hard cap is easy to understand: there will only ever be 21 million coins. What's hard to understand is that the marginal market is allowed to trade far more than 21 million coins worth of exposure, because most of that exposure is synthetic and cash-settled, and it can be created or reduced in seconds. […]
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The network's hashrate has dropped about 20% over the past month as bitcoin's price collapsed and Winter Storm Fern forced widespread miner shutdowns.
Arthur Hayes, co‑founder of BitMEX, has pointed to hedging tied to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) as a major driver behind the recent Bitcoin sell‑off. Related Reading: Bitcoin Edges Past Gold In Appeal, JPMorgan Says According to Hayes, dealer hedging related to IBIT and similar structured products can force large, mechanical selling when markets move against those positions. Reports note that such moves can amplify a price drop already set off by other pressures. Heavy Hedges Can Trigger Sudden Selling Pressure: Hayes Hayes argues that banks and dealers who underwrite structured notes and ETF‑linked products often hedge their exposure in the spot and derivatives markets. Those hedges can be heavy and fast. When a large product faces outflows or redemption triggers, hedges are adjusted quickly. That can translate into sudden selling pressure that pushes prices down further, especially if liquidity is thin. $BTC dump probably due to dealer hedging off the back of $IBIT structured products. I will be compiling a complete list of all issued notes by the banks to better understand trigger points that could cause rapid price rises and falls. As the game changes, u must as well. pic.twitter.com/9DF8VE9XBL — Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) February 7, 2026 Market Moves And Liquidity Stress The market behaved like a room of people trying to leave at once. Prices plunged, then bounced. Reports say Bitcoin fell steeply from its recent highs before staging a partial recovery. Bitcoin has fallen to around $68,500 Saturday, down 16% in the last seven days, data from Coingecko shows. Trades and order books showed spikes in volume, which is one sign that hedging flows and quick rebalancing were at play. Some analysts say macro news and trader positioning also mattered. The truth likely sits in the overlap of these causes. Who Bears The Risk Dealers carry risk when they underwrite complex products. In certain moments, that risk is passed back into the market through hedging. That’s how, according to Hayes, a few large issuers can indirectly set off a chain reaction that affects many other holders and traders. The moves can be sudden and mechanical, not always driven by sentiment. A Watchful Washington Reports say the role of spot ETFs in crypto markets is now on regulators’ and policymakers’ radar. US President Donald Trump’s economic team has been monitoring big flows into and out of institutional vehicles, while market participants debate whether ETFs stabilize prices or add new stress points. Whatever the view, structured products now form a clear link between traditional finance and crypto volatility. Broader Takeaways This episode underlines how new financial plumbing can create new channels for contagion. Some see the presence of large, regulated players as a net positive for long‑term adoption. Others warn those same players introduce conventional market mechanics that can behave unpredictably when stretched. Reports note both perspectives are useful when piecing together why prices moved the way they did. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sell-Off May Be Done, Analyst Flags Recovery Signs Who Is Right, And What Next Hayes has laid out a theory that ties observable hedging flows to the crash. It is a compelling thread that fits many of the market signals seen in recent days. Still, other factors—macro shifts, concentrated profit‑taking, and liquidity gaps—likely played parts as well. Traders will watch flows closely, and structured product issuers will be asked hard questions. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
The BTC price is hovering near $68,890 today after a brief recovery from $60K. But, the key risk metric, the Sharpe Ratio, shows intact caution. It shows that BTC’s sharpe ratio has slipped into a historical bear-market zone. Rather than signaling an immediate bottom, this shift highlights rising risk relative to returns, a dynamic that …
The Bitcoin price displayed a staggering show of bearish pressure over the week. As the premier cryptocurrency lost its footing around the $84,000 support level, it entered a slippery slide, reaching approximately $60,000. Currently, the market is in recovery mode, with its price rising again to $70,000. Interestingly, a recent on-chain evaluation has emerged, lending more credence to expectations of a price rebound. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Worst Since 2022 Bear As Price Crash Continues MVRV Data Reveals Bitcoin Market Is Under ‘Severe Stress’ In a QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, popular market analyst Darkfost postulates that the recent Bitcoin price action has given an apparently strong buy signal. This is based on data from the Bitcoin: MVRV Percentile – Current Cycle (0-100%) indicator. For context, this metric shows where Bitcoin’s current MVRV ratio ranks in the ongoing cycle, relative to all past values. This serves as a means to identify whether the market is historically undervalued or overheated. According to Darkfost, the MVRV sits within the 0 to 10 % percentile. This is a notably low level for the present Bitcoin cycle, seeing as the MVRV has held higher levels than the current value for more than 90% of this cycle’s period. Practically, readings around this level indicate that the majority of Bitcoin holders are doing so with minimal unrealized profits, or even outright losses, compared to their cost bases. This is often a telltale sign that the Bitcoin market has experienced a period of extreme stress, accompanied by multiple liquidations and investor exhaustion. However, this period is only part of a broader cyclical trend. Darkfost explains that the Bitcoin market (like other big assets) tends to enter overheated phases, followed by corrections, and then overstressed phases, which have often preceded bullish recoveries. Notably, transitions out of the 0–10% MVRV range have often been followed by price stabilization and eventual upwards movement. On the other hand, the 90% zone often represents overheated market conditions, which precedes heavy profit-taking activity and subsequent correction. Although MVRV data alone does not singularly confirm that the Bitcoin price would achieve a full-scale recovery, it indicates strong potential for a positive momentum boost to reclaim key valuation levels. Related Reading: Analyst Who Predicted XRP’s 600% Rally Forecasts The Bottom And A Target Of $10 Bitcoin Price Overview As of press time, Bitcoin trades for approximately $67,855. According to CoinMarketCap data, the world’s leading cryptocurrency has recovered by more than 4.00% over the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the daily trading volume is down by 38.16% and valued at $88.37 billion. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview
Global Google searches for “Bitcoin” soared to a one-year high during the week of February 1 as the price plunged toward $60,000 before rebounding near $70,000, erasing post-election gains. On X, opinions are divided: some see rising retail interest as a bullish signal, while others call it FOMO. Volatility was fueled by deleveraging, Fed signals, …
Amid a recent Bitcoin price rebound, Coinbase Premium data shows that American investors are renewing their bullish interest. Notably, the latest price relief only closes a negatively volatile trading week in which Bitcoin experienced a free price fall, as 30% loss pushed prices to around $60,000. This market plunge by the premier cryptocurrency has been attributed to many factors, including collapsing leverages, high levels of ETF outflows, metals market volatility, and also investors’ expectations in line with the typical boom and bust market cycle. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sell-Off May Be Done, Analyst Flags Recovery Signs Coinbase Premium Turns Positive After Successful $60K Retest The Coinbase Premium, one of the most important Bitcoin market indicators, shows the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and its price on other major exchanges. It is largely used to measure how much more or less US investors are paying to acquire Bitcoin compared to international traders. According to Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, the Coinbase premium has maintained a negative value since mid-January, suggesting that US traders valued the asset lower compared to their global counterparts, leading to a weak market demand. However, since Bitcoin bounced off the $60,000 support following the recent bloodbath, the American market participants have rediscovered their market confidence as indicated by a rising demand and corresponding movement of the Coinbase Premium into a positive zone. During this time, the flagship cryptocurrency has shown moderate resilience, climbing by over 16% to presently trade around $70,000. However, it is worth noting that the positive Coinbase Premium reading does not singularly confirm an impending full-scale recovery. Other factors need to be considered, including macroeconomic developments such as Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and liquidity tightening policies, overall global market sentiment, and geopolitical stability. Related Reading: Dogecoin Drops Below $0.09 as Market Weakness Outweighs Musk Hype Bitcoin Market Overview At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $68,892, representing a 6.44% gain in the past day. However, significant losses of 17.34% and 23.38% on the weekly and monthly charts, respectively, show the asset is still deep in bearish territory. According to a recent post from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin has been about 50% away from its all-time high (ATH). Notably, recent bear markets recorded price slumps as low as 70%-80% indicating, indicating that there is a high possibility of a deeper price correction. However, CryptoQuant analysts warn that the bigger concern is time capitulation, i.e., how long this market winter will stay compared to how low prices may fall. With a market cap of $1.4 trillion, Bitcoin continues to account for over 55% of the total crypto market cap and is the largest digital asset in the world. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview
Crypto markets head into the weekend after a sharp relief bounce across majors, but price behavior shows a clear divergence. Bitcoin price is stabilizing after a deep sell-off, while Ethereum price is attempting to reclaim structure after a more aggressive breakdown. The key question for traders is whether this move marks an early rotation into …
Bitcoin is hovering around the $65,000 level as persistent selling pressure continues to weigh on market sentiment. The recent decline has intensified uncertainty among investors, with volatility rising while liquidity conditions remain fragile. After a strong rally earlier in the cycle, price action now reflects a more defensive phase, with traders increasingly focused on downside risk rather than upside momentum. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Deep In Loss: MVRV Signals Capitulation Phase A recent CryptoQuant report frames the central question facing the crypto market: how far this bear phase could extend before a durable bottom forms. Bitcoin has declined roughly 17% this year, a move attributed to several converging factors. These include approximately $12 billion in institutional ETF outflows over the past three months, broader global risk aversion tied to macroeconomic conditions, and ongoing regulatory ambiguity that continues to limit large-scale capital commitment. Despite the negative backdrop, analysts note that intense institutional selling does not necessarily preclude a reversal. Historically, periods of heavy distribution often precede accumulation phases. The analytical focus is therefore shifting toward identifying a potential accumulation zone — a price range where selling pressure becomes exhausted, and larger market participants begin rebuilding exposure. That transition, if confirmed, would likely mark the early stages of trend stabilization rather than an immediate recovery. Market Cycle Signals: Capitulation Phase Or Early Accumulation? According to the report, understanding the current Bitcoin environment requires focusing on market structure rather than short-term price forecasts. One framework gaining attention is the BTC Market Cycle Signals indicator, an on-chain analytical tool that interprets Bitcoin’s cycle through three distinct phases using monthly Bollinger Band positioning. This approach aims to contextualize volatility rather than simply react to it. The first phase, Distribution, typically occurs when the price reaches or exceeds the upper Bollinger Band, often reflecting euphoric sentiment and profit-taking behavior. This stage historically aligns with cycle tops. The second phase, Capitulation, emerges when price declines below the 20-month moving average and gravitates toward the lower band, signaling panic, forced selling, and deteriorating sentiment. Finally, the Accumulation phase represents conditions where long-term positioning becomes favorable, although this zone does not always coincide with the exact market bottom. Current price action appears to be converging toward the level associated with early accumulation, estimated around $54,600. Historically, this range has acted as a transitional zone between capitulation and renewed accumulation activity. However, this should be interpreted cautiously. While such indicators help clarify cycle positioning, they do not eliminate uncertainty. Market reversals typically require confirmation through liquidity inflows, improving sentiment, and sustained structural demand rather than technical positioning alone. Related Reading: Ethereum Coinbase Premium Drops To 2022 Bear-Market Levels: Capitulation Or Further Downside? Bitcoin Breaks Key Support As Bearish Momentum Intensifies Bitcoin continues to trade under heavy pressure, with the weekly chart showing a decisive breakdown below the $70,000 level after several weeks of weakening structure. Price recently closed near $67,200 following a sharp rejection from the mid-$90K region, confirming a clear lower-high formation and reinforcing a bearish trend continuation. The move also represents a loss of momentum after the failed recovery attempt above the 50-week moving average, which had previously acted as dynamic support during the uptrend. Technically, Bitcoin is now trading below the 50-week and 100-week moving averages. While the 200-week average remains significantly lower near the mid-$50K area. Historically, this zone has acted as a major long-term support. Suggesting that further downside in that region cannot be ruled out if selling pressure persists. Volume expansion during the recent drop indicates distribution rather than simple low-liquidity volatility. Related Reading: Are We Near A Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom? History Offers A Framework The market appears to be transitioning from a late bull-cycle correction into a potential bear-market consolidation phase. Unless Bitcoin quickly reclaims the $70K–$75K range and stabilizes above it, the probability of continued downside or prolonged sideways accumulation remains elevated in the near term. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin fell sharply to $60,000 this week, shaking investor confidence, even though the market has many positive developments. On CNBC’s Closing Bell Overtime, SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci explained why Bitcoin can still have big swings, despite favorable regulation, the approval of ETFs, and growing interest from large investors. A Rough Week for Bitcoin This …
A new theory circulating in the crypto market is challenging how investors interpret Bitcoin’s recent price decline. In a post shared on X (formerly Twitter), market analyst Crypto Rover argued that Bitcoin is no longer trading as a simple supply-and-demand asset, and that this structural shift is a major reason behind the current sell-off. A ‘Parallel Financial Layer’ Rover’s central claim is that although Bitcoin’s on-chain supply cap of 21 million coins has not changed, the way Bitcoin is traded in modern financial markets has effectively diluted its scarcity. According to him, focusing only on spot buying and selling misses what is really driving price action today. BTC, he says, no longer moves primarily based on physical ownership of coins, but on activity in massive derivatives markets that now dominate price discovery. Related Reading: What Went Wrong With Crypto? A Postmortem As the analyst highlighted, in Bitcoin’s early years, its valuation rested on two fundamental principles: a strictly fixed supply of 21 million coins and the impossibility of duplicating that supply. These features made Bitcoin uniquely scarce, with prices largely determined by real buyers and sellers exchanging coins in the spot market. However, over time, Rover asserts that a “parallel financial layer” developed on top of the blockchain itself. This financial layer includes cash‑settled futures, perpetual swaps, options contracts, prime brokerage lending, wrapped Bitcoin products such as WBTC, and total return swaps. None of these instruments create new Bitcoin on the blockchain, but they do create synthetic exposure to Bitcoin’s price. According to Rover, this synthetic exposure now plays a central role in determining how Bitcoin trades. As derivatives trading volumes grew and eventually surpassed spot market activity, Rover argues that Bitcoin’s price stopped responding mainly to on‑chain coin movement. Instead, prices increasingly reflect leverage, trader positioning, margin stress, and liquidation dynamics. In practical terms, this means Bitcoin can move sharply even when there is little actual buying or selling of real coins. Why Bitcoin Moves Without Spot Selling Rover also highlights the concept of synthetic supply, explaining that a single Bitcoin can now be used simultaneously across multiple financial products. One coin may back an exchange-traded fund (ETF) share while also supporting a futures contract, a perpetual swap hedge, options exposure, a broker loan, or a structured investment product. While this does not increase Bitcoin’s actual supply, it dramatically increases the amount of tradable exposure linked to that same coin. When this synthetic exposure grows large compared with the real supply of Bitcoin, the market’s perception of scarcity weakens. This phenomenon, often described as synthetic float expansion, changes how prices behave. Rallies are more easily shorted using derivatives, leverage builds rapidly, liquidations become more frequent, and volatility increases. According to Rover, this structural shift makes price movements feel disconnected from on‑chain fundamentals. Yet, the analyst notes that the leading cryptocurrency is not unique in this regard. Related Reading: Why The Market Cap Argument For XRP Price Not Reaching $10,000 Is ‘Flawed’ Similar transitions occurred in markets such as gold, silver, oil, and major equity indices. In each case, once derivatives markets overtook physical trading, price discovery moved away from supply alone and became increasingly influenced by financial positioning. This framework also helps explain why Bitcoin sometimes declines even in the absence of heavy spot selling. Price pressure can come from forced liquidations of leveraged long positions, aggressive futures shorting, options hedging activity, or ETF arbitrage trades. Importantly, Rover emphasizes that Bitcoin’s hard cap has not changed at the protocol level. The 21 million limit remains intact on the blockchain. What has changed, he argues, is the financial structure surrounding Bitcoin. He concluded his analysis by asserting that in today’s markets, “paper Bitcoin” has become more influential than physical ownership, and that dominance is playing a key role in the market’s recent instability. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said the recent Bitcoin selloff was likely driven by dealer hedging linked to iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) structured products. These hedging activities, where market participants adjust positions based on price movements, can amplify volatility. Hayes is also compiling a detailed list of bank-issued notes and related products to identify potential trigger …
The crypto markets experienced some relief as the selling pressure eased over the major cryptos. The market capitalisation recovered above $2.4 trillion, while the volume dropped close to $200 billion from the highs around $306 billion during the sell-off. The crypto ETF also turned positive after 2 to 3 days of continuous outflow. The market …
Bitcoin has experienced one of its sharpest corrections in recent years, slipping below the $65,000 level and reaching its lowest price since October 2024. The decline reflects persistent selling pressure across the crypto market, accompanied by deteriorating macro sentiment, reduced liquidity, and cautious positioning among institutional participants. Recent price action suggests the market is entering a critical phase where confidence, rather than technical levels alone, may determine the next directional move. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Deep In Loss: MVRV Signals Capitulation Phase Amid this uncertainty, the Binance SAFU Fund disclosed the purchase of an additional 3,600 BTC, valued at roughly $233.37 million. While such acquisitions do not guarantee a market reversal, they indicate continued strategic accumulation by major industry players even during periods of elevated volatility. Market sentiment has deteriorated markedly. Several sentiment indicators now sit near levels last observed during the 2022 bear market, when risk appetite contracted sharply and investors adopted defensive positioning. This environment typically coincides with reduced speculative activity, heightened caution among retail traders, and increased scrutiny from institutional capital. Institutional Accumulation Emerges Amid Prolonged Capitulation Phase Arkham data indicates that the Binance SAFU fund has continued accumulating Bitcoin, bringing its total recent purchases to approximately 6,230 BTC, valued near $434.5 million. While such activity signals ongoing participation from large institutional entities, it does not necessarily imply an imminent price recovery. Historically, significant purchases during corrective phases often occur alongside broader market stress rather than marking an immediate turning point. Current market conditions increasingly resemble a classic capitulation phase. Capitulation typically emerges when sustained price declines force weaker holders to exit positions, often at losses, leading to elevated exchange inflows, compressed liquidity, and sharp sentiment deterioration. These episodes can persist longer than many participants anticipate, particularly when macroeconomic uncertainty, risk-off positioning, and tightening liquidity conditions coincide. Importantly, capitulation does not follow a fixed timeline. In prior cycles, similar phases unfolded over weeks or even months before a durable bottom formed. During these periods, volatility tends to remain elevated, failed rallies are common, and confidence rebuilds gradually rather than abruptly. The key variables to monitor include exchange flows, derivatives leverage, spot demand recovery, and broader macro signals. Until those metrics stabilize, the base case remains continued market fragility. Large-scale accumulation by institutional funds may provide structural support, but it rarely prevents extended consolidation or further downside during capitulation environments. Related Reading: Ethereum Coinbase Premium Drops To 2022 Bear-Market Levels: Capitulation Or Further Downside? Weekly Structure Shows Breakdown Below Key Support Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a clear deterioration in market structure after losing the $70K region, a level that had previously acted as both psychological and technical support. The latest candle reflects strong downside momentum, with price briefly touching the $60K zone before stabilizing near $65.9K. This move confirms a breakdown from the prior consolidation range and shifts focus toward whether this decline represents a deeper bear phase or a late-cycle correction. From a trend perspective, Bitcoin is now trading below the 50-week moving average while approaching the 100-week average. Historically, a critical dynamic support during corrective phases. The 200-week average remains far below, indicating the long-term macro trend has not fully reversed, although intermediate momentum has clearly weakened. Related Reading: Are We Near A Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom? History Offers A Framework Volume dynamics also matter here. The recent selloff shows rising participation compared with earlier consolidation periods, suggesting distribution rather than simple profit-taking. However, sustained high volume without further price acceleration downward could signal seller exhaustion. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim the $70K area, downside risk toward the $60K–$55K zone remains plausible. Conversely, stabilization above current levels would indicate absorption, a necessary precursor for any meaningful recovery. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin jumped back to around $70,600 on February 7 after falling near $60,000, reversing a recent 14% drop from early February highs. At the same time, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to extreme fear, with a reading between 6 and 10, the lowest since 2022, highlighting deep investor anxiety over volatility, trading volume, …
Bitcoin’s roughly 50% drawdown has less to do with cycle déjà vu than a deeper break in the market’s old playbook, according to Jeff Park, partner and CIO at ProCap Financial, who argues a prospective Kevin Warsh-led Federal Reserve could catalyze a regime shift in how Bitcoin trades. In an conversation with Anthony Pompliano, Park said he believes Bitcoin has been in a bear market “for quite a bit,” and warned that the familiar reflexive framework, easier policy, more liquidity, higher BTC, has stopped doing the explanatory work it once did. What Kevin Warsh Means For Bitcoin Park’s starting point was a blunt claim: the assumed linkage between Bitcoin and global liquidity has “been broken for quite some time.” He pointed to what he described as steadily rising global liquidity through 2025, citing Michael Howell’s tracking and estimating the level at roughly $170 trillion, alongside broad-based strength in other asset classes. “Asset prices have all gone up,” Park said, referencing a “frenzied rally” in metals and corporate credit spreads near all-time lows, before adding: “there actually is a lot of reasons to think that Bitcoin should have also already participated, but it didn’t.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash On Feb. 5 Was Historic: The Numbers Behind The Selloff That divergence, he argued, is why investors should stop leaning on backward-looking heuristics that have become psychological crutches. In his telling, crypto markets have repeatedly assumed history would re-run—altcoin rallies after bitcoin rallies, a durable four-year cycle, and the idea that QE or lower rates reliably lift BTC. “It’s worth remembering that there’s things that are constantly changing about the world where everything looks a little bit different than the way you had modeled it before,” he said. From there, Park reframed the debate around his “negative rho” versus “positive rho” Bitcoin framework. The former is the risk-asset version most investors recognize: rates down, risk up, Bitcoin up. The latter is the endgame: Bitcoin rising as rates rise, effectively challenging the notion of a stable “risk-free” rate by calling into question the credibility of the monetary order itself. “This is the mythical elusive perfect holy grail of what Bitcoin is meant to be,” Park said of positive-rho Bitcoin. “What it’s undermining is the risk-free rate itself. In that world, what we’re saying is actually because the risk-free rate is not the risk-free rate. Because the dollar hegemony is not the dollar hegemony and we are no longer able to price the yield curve in the ways we’ve known that means we need something different… and bitcoin is that hedge.” Park suggested the market may be inching toward that worldview as US policymaking becomes more explicitly about system repair, not incremental tweaks. He described the current US administration as attempting to “wrestle control of the economy away from the Federal Reserve” via deregulation, tax cuts, tariffs, and efforts to weaken the dollar, leaving the Fed “on their back foot” amid shifting “tectonic plates” across policy channels. Absolutely enjoyed recording this, even though we of course wish prices were higher. For those who have been listening to our show (monthly going forward), the fact that we are in a bear market won’t come as a big surprise. Still, Bitcoin can survive all this! Listen below ???? https://t.co/JSrKOw5QLY — Jeff Park (@dgt10011) February 5, 2026 That’s where Park placed Warsh, a former Fed governor and, in Park’s telling, a rare combination of institutional fluency and technological conviction, as potentially pivotal. Park recounted an interaction from 2021 or 2022 in which Warsh expressed enthusiasm for Bitcoin while criticizing “phonies” who treat tech as “magic.” Warsh, Park said, “truly believed deep in his heart that this isn’t magic… that it actually is going to solve a lot of problems and bring efficiencies and Bitcoin is a core part of that cultural fabric.” Related Reading: PlanB Lays Out Four Bitcoin Bear-Market Scenarios Crucially, Park emphasized Warsh is not an anti-institution wrecking ball. Instead, he portrayed Warsh as someone who understands why the Fed’s legitimacy has been challenged and how it might be rebuilt. One line, Park said, has “always stuck” with him: “inflation is a choice.” Park contrasted that with Fed communication that, in his view, sometimes treats inflation as something that merely happens due to tariffs or war, rather than an outcome of policy tools and mandates. For Park, a Warsh appointment matters less because it guarantees easier policy and more because it could accelerate a rethink of Fed–Treasury coordination. He said he is “optimistic about the possibility of a new Fed Treasury accord that Bessant and Warsh can rewrite,” arguing the heart of the issue is the Triffin dilemma and the tension between the dollar’s external reserve role and internal saver role. “It’s not that we need fed independence,” Park said. “We actually need Fed interdependence with the Treasury.” The irony, in Park’s framing, is that “more accommodative policies may in fact actually not be the catalyst” for Bitcoin’s next bull phase. Instead, he argued Bitcoin’s bid ultimately strengthens when the world feels less like “peacetime” and more like “wartime”, when industrial, military, and fiscal policy dominate, centralization pressures rise, and capital controls become more plausible. The people who “need Bitcoin,” he said, are not US investors with endless alternatives, but those facing constraint and censorship. If Park is right, Warsh isn’t bullish for Bitcoin because he’ll deliver a familiar liquidity wave. He’s bullish because a Warsh-era Fed, paired with a Treasury aligned on system-level reform, could push markets toward the “positive rho” regime, where Bitcoin’s value proposition is less about riding stimulus and more about challenging the architecture that made stimulus necessary in the first place. At press time, BTC traded at $66,396. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Strategy’s leadership is pushing back against growing concerns that the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin (BTC) could face serious financial stress as the cryptocurrency’s price continues to slide. Speaking after the company released its fourth‑quarter results, CEO Phong Le sought to reassure investors that the firm remains well-positioned, even as Bitcoin fell close to $60,000 on Thursday. Bitcoin Sell‑Off Tests Strategy’s Financial Resilience Bitcoin dropped roughly 50% since reaching all‑time highs of $126,000 in October of last year, a period during which Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, was aggressively accumulating the digital asset. The sell‑off has weighed heavily on the company’s share price. Strategy’s stock, trading under the ticker MSTR, sank to about $104 on Thursday, its lowest level since August 2024, after plunging more than 17% during the session. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Exposes Colossal Corporate Losses — Here’s Who’s Most Impacted For now, investors are focused on two key factors: the price of Bitcoin itself and Strategy’s ability to meet its financial obligations if the downturn deepens. Those questions loomed large as founder Michael Saylor and CEO Phong Le addressed analysts during the firm’s earnings call. Much of the attention centered on how Strategy would navigate a prolonged “Bitcoin winter,” should one materialize. Saylor has already taken steps to bolster the company’s financial flexibility, including raising a $2.25 billion cash reserve to cover preferred dividend payments totaling $888 million annually. However, investors remain uneasy about the company’s $8.2 billion in low‑ and zero‑interest convertible bonds, which could begin facing early redemptions starting in September 2027, particularly now that MSTR shares have fallen sharply. Politics, Leverage, And Valuation In Focus Saylor reiterated that the company is keeping its options open, including the possibility of selling Bitcoin if market conditions require it. He also framed crypto investing as inseparable from politics, pointing to President Donald Trump’s pro‑crypto stance and noting that Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve (Fed) chair, Kevin Warsh, is viewed as supportive of digital assets. Still, Bitcoin fell through its post‑2024 election lows on Thursday, reflecting skepticism that the federal government will actively support Bitcoin purchases. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reinforced those doubts this week, telling Congress he lacks the authority to rescue Bitcoin markets. On the balance‑sheet front, CEO Phong Le addressed worries about Strategy’s leverage. He said the company operates with roughly one‑third the leverage of a typical high‑yield firm. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crashes Below $67,000 As Stifel Warns Of Potential Drop To $38,000 According to Le, Bitcoin would need to decline by about 90% for Strategy’s Bitcoin reserves to merely equal the value of its convertible debt. Even in that extreme scenario, he said, the company would explore restructuring options if it could not convert the debt into equity. Strategy’s own disclosures show an enterprise value of about $49.95 billion, compared with roughly $45.33 billion worth of Bitcoin on its balance sheet. Enterprise value includes the company’s market capitalization, preferred shares, and convertible bonds, minus cash. If Bitcoin drops once again near $63,000, Strategy’s market cap of $35.57 billion would need to fall about 13% from its recent closing price of $106.99 to eliminate the valuation premium over its Bitcoin holdings. However, since Thursday’s crash, both Bitcoin and Strategy’s stock have made a significant recovery. Bitcoin, for example, has surged to around $69,256. MSTR has recovered above $130, marking a 20% increase in less than 24 hours and offering short-term relief. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
According to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, much of the crypto complex already went through a down cycle last year even though headline coins looked steadier. Related Reading: Russia’s Biggest Exchange To Launch XRP Indices And Futures He points to heavy buying from ETFs and companies that kept Bitcoin, Ether, and XRP from showing the full brunt of those losses. Some tokens, without that same support, fell hard — in many cases by about 50%–60% — and behaved like past bear phases. Institutional Buying Accelerates Hougan Says ETF flows and corporate accumulation have shifted the balance. When institutions buy more than new supply, price pressure changes. That is what he highlights. “We ran the four-year cycle last year,” Hougan said. “We’re already at the bottom. I think we’re coming back up.” ETF purchases and corporate hoarding at times outpaced newly mined Bitcoin, creating a persistent bid under the market. Reports note the comparison to gold, where steady central bank buying first steadied prices and later helped fuel much bigger moves. “Just like gold eventually entered a parabolic move, Bitcoin will follow suit,” Hougan said. We’re just earlier in that process.” A Selective Altcoin Cycle Expected Investors are getting pickier. The next up-cycle, according to this view, will reward projects with clear use and steady activity, not every token with hype. Networks tied to stablecoins, tokenization, and real infrastructure work stand a better chance of drawing capital. Lower-quality projects that lack users or clear purpose could see little interest and remain sidelined. Bitcoin Price Action In the middle of these structural shifts, Bitcoin’s price has kept traders busy. Recently BTC slid from earlier peaks to roughly 60,000–65,000 before finding buyers and moving back above 65,000 amid a broader rebound. Geopolitical headlines pushed risk appetite up and down, and those swings helped produce one of Bitcoin’s rougher stretches in weeks. Reports say traders are watching headlines closely because news can prompt sudden outsized moves. Related Reading: Bitcoin Edges Past Gold In Appeal, JPMorgan Says A Slow Transfer From Old Hands To New Buyers Long-term holders are selling some coins while institutions move in. That hand-off can feel messy. A sale wall forms when investors who bought early decide to take profit, and large institutions step in to absorb that supply. That process has been observed in other asset classes as they mature, and it does not automatically mean demand is weakening over the long run. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView