US Rep. Ritchie Torres said he will introduce legislation to curb what he and other lawmakers describe as possible insider trading on prediction markets, after a single, highly timed wager on Polymarket paid off when Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was captured. Related Reading: Bitcoin Dominance Grows As Altcoins Post Another Losing Year: Analyst Reports have disclosed that the bill — being called the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 — would bar federally elected officials, political appointees and executive branch staff from trading on event markets when they hold material nonpublic information. Public Integrity In Focus According to reporting, a newly created Polymarket account placed roughly $32,500 in bets on a contract that asked whether Maduro would be out of power by January 31, 2026. That stake bought about 438,000 shares when the market price was as low as $0.07 per share late Friday. Within about 24 hours, after action by US forces and an announcement by US President Donald Trump, the position surged—returning more than $400,000 to the account. NEW — RITCHIE TORRES (D-N.Y.) will introduce a bill on this. Bill will be called the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 Description, per a source: This bill prohibits federal elected officials, political appointees, and Executive Branch employees… https://t.co/eZZ9BmAMgJ — Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) January 3, 2026 The trade’s timing set off immediate questions. Social media users and some investors flagged the purchase as suspicious because it came hours before the public announcement. Observers noted that prediction markets can move quickly on small flows of information, and that enforcement rules vary across platforms. Reports note that other markets, like Kalshi, had priced similar outcomes at roughly $0.13, underlining how unexpected the outcome was to many traders. A newly created Polymarket account invested over $30,000 yesterday in Maduro’s exit. The US then took Maduro into custody overnight, and the trader profited $400,000 in less than 24 hours. Insider trading is not only allowed on prediction markets; it’s encouraged. https://t.co/EtZyW1IWTa pic.twitter.com/MzsU9kOU73 — Joe Pompliano (@JoePompliano) January 3, 2026 How The Bill Would Work Torres’s proposal would adapt principles from existing rules that limit trading by officials in traditional securities markets and extend them to online prediction exchanges. The draft language aims to make it unlawful for covered government figures to trade on contracts tied to government actions or political events when they possess nonpublic information because of their official roles. The measure would also task regulators with clarifying which platforms are covered and how violations would be enforced. Market Reaction And Questions Platform operators have long said their terms forbid trading on material nonpublic information, but critics say those rules are hard to police in real time. Some analysts and lawmakers argue that this episode shows a gap between written policies and effective oversight. Others warn against overreach that could stifle legitimate market activity used for forecasting and research. Related Reading: A Maduro Bet, A Market Alarm: US Lawmaker Targets Trading Abuses Investigations may look at the account’s origins and any links to people with privileged knowledge. Lawmakers, meanwhile, are pushing for clearer legal guardrails. If Congress moves quickly, new rules could reshape who may legally bet on political and national security events. Featured image from AFP/Getty Images, chart from TradingView
The bill would bar federal employees from trading prediction market contracts tied to government policy when they possess material non-public information.
Prediction markets and analyst desks are sending different signals about Bitcoin’s near-term path. Traders on Polymarket appear cautious, while some big-name firms keep calling for big gains in 2026. Related Reading: Crypto Exchange Korbit Fined $1.90 Million By South Korean Regulators Market Odds And Trader Caution According to Polymarket prices, Bitcoin has just a 23% chance of reaching $150,000 before 2027. The odds are higher at lower targets: 47% for $120,000, 35% for $130,000 and 29% for $140,000. Traders are most comfortable with $100,000, which carries about an 80% chance. That spread shows bettors are pricing risk tightly as the clock runs toward the new year. Bitcoin closed 2025 in the red, a fact that has likely cooled some enthusiasm. Reports have disclosed that gold and silver hit fresh highs in the fourth quarter of 2025, while crypto prices held mostly flat. The old four-year halving cycle that many chartists relied on is being questioned, and that doubt is being priced in. Technical Signals Based on the latest Bitcoin price outlook, BTC is expected to climb 3% to about $91,815 by February 1, 2026. Technical signals point to a Bearish mood, while the Fear & Greed Index stands at 28, reflecting Fear. Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin posted gains on 15 of those days, or 50%, with price swings averaging 2%. Policy Shifts Could Change The Math US President Donald Trump is expected to name a new Federal Reserve chair soon, and many market participants are betting that interest rates will be cut afterward. That idea has already helped send precious metals higher. At the same time, regulators in Washington are pushing crypto bills such as the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act, which backers say could give clearer rules and, in time, more institutional interest. Analysts Still Offer Bullish Targets Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has publicly predicted that Bitcoin could reach $180,000 by the end of 2026, citing stronger institutional interest and better regulatory clarity as reasons for his bullish outlook. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Bear Market Might Not Be New: Data Points To A 2-Month Slide Analysts at JPMorgan have suggested a theoretical Bitcoin price around $170,000 in 2026, based on a model comparing Bitcoin’s behavior to gold and assuming continued capital flows into the crypto market. Grayscale’s 2026 digital asset outlook expects Bitcoin to exceed its previous all-time high in the first half of 2026, implying a move above its record peak of around $126,000 (though not giving a specific numerical target, the implication is toward significant upward momentum). Policymakers, traders and analysts are all weighing different risks. Market prices reflect caution today, while forecasts offer a brighter view for the months ahead. Which one proves right will depend on policy moves, investor appetite and whether new trading patterns replace the cycle many thought they could count on. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Experts say credibility and transparency in market outcomes will ultimately determine the winners in the prediction market race.
Polymarket and Kalshi achieved multi-billion dollar valuations as investors bet the companies will scale exponentially.
The platform attributed the incident to a third-party login provider, which several users speculated was Magic Labs, a popular tool for email-based logins.
While Polymarket did not name the third-party provider, some users speculated on social media that the vulnerability is linked to Magic Labs.
The company has recently become more active in prediction markets space including a partnership with Kalshi.
Following the success of Kalshi and Polymarket, major firms such as Coinbase and Gemini have moved to enter the prediction markets space.
Crypto pundit Crypto Wimar has explained why the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP prices crashed, highlighting the continuous selling pressure. The crypto market is also at risk of further downward pressure due to macro factors such as the impending Japan rate hike. Why The Bitcoin, Ethereum, And XRP Prices Crashed In an X post, Crypto Wimar revealed that Wintermute has dumped 40% of its holdings over the last three weeks, which has contributed to the crash in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP prices. The crypto pundit further noted that the market maker is still dumping millions in BTC and ETH on Binance, which puts these coins at risk of further declines. Related Reading: What’s Happening With The Bitcoin, Ethereum, And Dogecoin Prices Recently? The Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP prices are also crashing as crypto market investors brace for a Japan interest rate hike by the BOJ at their December 19 meeting. Polymarket data shows that there is currently a 97.4% chance that the BOJ will increase rates by 25 basis points. A Japan rate hike impacts the crypto market as it puts the yen carry trade in focus, with investors moving to sell their assets before the yen strengthens and their debt becomes more expensive. Meanwhile, it is worth mentioning that the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP prices have crashed after every Fed rate cut this year. This similar price action is playing out as the Fed lowered rates by 25 bps last week. These crypto assets had seen a notable rebound prior to the Fed rate decision last week, indicating that the cut was already priced in. Demand for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP also appears to be dwindling, even among institutional investors. Crypto analytics platform CryptoQuant stated that Bitcoin treasury growth is losing momentum, noting that the accumulation pace is slowing despite the fact that 117 new companies added BTC to their treasuries this year. Ethereum treasury company BitMine is also the only company that has continued to accumulate ETH at an impressive pace amid this market downturn. BTC At Risk Of Drop Below $50,000 Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto has indicated that the Bitcoin price could still drop below $50,000, which also puts Ethereum and XRP at risk of crashing. In an X post, the analyst raised the possibility that a BTC bear pennant is forming. Related Reading: Why Is The Bitcoin Price Down Again? Analyst Calls Out Trading Desk For Triggering Crashes He noted that this is not a structure that market investors will typically want to see in a bull market. Titan of Crypto added that the structure is still developing, but it is one that is worth monitoring closely. Meanwhile, the analyst’s accompanying chart showed that the Bitcoin price could drop below $50,000 as soon as February next year. It is worth mentioning that veteran trader Peter Brandt had also earlier predicted that BTC could drop below $50,000 based on his belief that the flagship crypto is already in a bear market. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
The bank said event markets are still tiny versus stocks but are rapidly expanding beyond sports into macro and policy risk.
The CFTC granted the operators of Polymarket, PredictIt, Gemini and LedgerX permission to skip certain recordkeeping requirements.
Once mired in legal trouble that included federal probes and law enforcement raids, Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan has emerged victorious this year, casting off the yoke of regulatory scrutiny and growing the prediction market he founded into a $9 billion betting empire.
The chief executives of firms such as Gemini and Kraken will pitch in on U.S. policy efforts through the council's future, public discussions.
The prediction market’s move toward internal market making could blur the line with sportsbooks and undermine the platform’s neutrality, experts warn.
Between Kalshi and Polymarket, the two prediction markets platforms have generated a cumulative volume exceeding $45 billion.
Armed with CFTC approval, Polymarket has launched its mobile platform for sports and proposition markets under federal oversight.
Kalshi data will be integrated across CNN programming, and will be used by its newsroom, data and production team.
If you open your brokerage this year and a “Markets” tab seems to be sprouting unfamiliar yes/no questions (“Will the Fed cut rates in March?”, “Will a major ETF get approved this quarter?”), you wouldn’t necessarily be hallucinating. The recent regulatory green-light for Polymarket via a cleared path under its newest acquisition of an exchange […]
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The first thing many Ukrainians check in the morning is not Instagram or email, it is a war map. DeepStateMap.Live, a volunteer-built OSINT project, shows which villages are under occupation, where Ukrainian advances hold, and where the front looks fragile. It’s a survival tool as much as a news product, funded by donations and backed […]
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Market share data shows the pair now dominates sector-wide flows, forming a fast-consolidating duopoly amid growing capital formation.
Prediction markets have quickly become one of the hottest private market themes in crypto and fintech, echoing earlier cycles.
The CFTC issued an amended order allowing Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction-market platform, to resume operations in the U.S.
Polymarket’s amended CFTC designation paves the way for the prediction-market platform to formally reopen in the U.S. with a fully regulated exchange structure.
Polymarket and Kalshi are the two dominant prediction market platforms, which have seen around $42.4 billion in cumulative volume.
The CFTC-regulated exchange is gaining ground on crypto-native Polymarket, offering event contracts with fiat access and legal clarity.
A fast reset in downside odds mirrors QCP’s warning of flat-footed pro desks, with Glassnode highlighting oversold momentum and moderating ETF outflows.
TKO inks multi-year pact with Polymarket, bringing real-time sentiment tracking to UFC and Zuffa Boxing broadcasts.
The FanDuel Predicts app is set to offer event contracts on sports, crypto prices and other benchmark assets, according to the release.
This marks a milestone for Polymarket, which left the US due to an enforcement case with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.