The CFTC has scrapped a 2024 proposal to ban political prediction market contracts just as states double down on oversight.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission tumultuous legal fight with events-contracts firms is done, and its new leader is yanking previous policy efforts.
Nevada regulators accused Coinbase of offering alleged unlicensed sports betting through the exchange's prediction markets.
Hyperliquid, the decentralized exchange (DEX) behind the HYPE token, surprised the market on Monday with a new product initiative that ran counter to the prevailing bearish sentiment across the crypto sector. As several major cryptocurrencies slipped below important technical levels, Hyperliquid’s native token jumped roughly 14% following the announcement, signaling renewed investor interest despite broader market weakness. Hyperliquid’s HIP‑4 Proposal The rally was triggered after the Hyperliquid team revealed details of HIP‑4, a proposal that introduces outcome‑based trading to the platform. Shared via the social media platform X (previously Twitter), the announcement explained that HyperCore — Hyperliquid’s Layer‑1 blockchain engine — will soon support so‑called “outcomes.” These are fully collateralized contracts designed to settle within a predefined range. Unlike traditional leveraged derivatives, outcome contracts do not rely on leverage or liquidations, offering a different approach to derivatives trading. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? CMT Reveals What Investors Need To See Now According to the team, outcomes are intended as a general‑purpose building block that can power use cases such as prediction markets and bounded, options‑like instruments, areas where user demand has been growing. Following the news, HYPE managed to hold firmly above the psychologically important $30 level and was trading near $33.22 at the time of writing. Over the past week alone, the token has surged approximately 48%. The move stands in stark contrast to the performance of the wider market. During the same period, Bitcoin (BTC) fell around 10%, Ethereum (ETH) dropped roughly 18%, and Binance Coin (BNB) slid about 11%. Challenging Polymarket And Kalshi Beyond price action, the Hyperliquid team emphasized the broader implications of the outcome primitive for its ecosystem. Outcomes introduce non‑linear payoff structures and fixed‑duration contracts, expanding the range of financial products that can be built on HyperCore. These contracts are also designed to work alongside existing components such as portfolio margin and the HyperEVM, increasing the overall flexibility of the platform’s infrastructure. At this stage, outcomes remain under development and are currently being tested on Hyperliquid’s testnet. The team noted that standardized, or “canonical,” markets based on objective settlement sources will be launched once development is finalized. Depending on community feedback, Hyperliquid plans to eventually open the system to permissionless deployment, allowing a wider range of users and builders to create their own markets. Market researcher DeFi Ignas described the proposal as an important innovation, highlighting how outcome contracts could be combined with perpetual futures to create more efficient hedging strategies. As an example, he explained that a trader could hold a long ETH perpetual position while simultaneously purchasing an outcome contract that pays out if ETH falls below a certain price level, such as $2,000. According to Ignas, this type of composability is not currently possible on prediction platforms like Polymarket or Kalshi. Ignas also pointed to permissionless market creation as another potential differentiator. HYPE Battles Major Resistance HYPE’s price behavior reflects the instability of the crypto market, despite the euphoria surrounding Hyperliquid’s HIP-4. From a technical sense, $28 served as a major support level during the weekend, preventing further losses. Related Reading: Dogecoin Crash Sends It To Key Demand Zone, Here’s The Level To Watch On the upside, resistance near $34 has capped gains on multiple occasions, including two failed attempts to break higher on Wednesday and Thursday of last week. Whether HYPE can decisively clear this resistance is likely to determine whether the recent rally extends further or gives way to another short‑term correction. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
As the Bitcoin market reels from a sharp sell-off and uncertainty grips the broader crypto space, most attention remains locked on falling prices and broken support levels. Meanwhile, Theo4 is executing with precision on Polymarket, steadily building a reputation as one of the platform’s most dominant traders. While panic and emotion drive losses elsewhere, Theo4’s performance underscores a different approach. How Theo4 Quietly Became Polymarket’s Standout Performer While much of the crypto world fixated on the Bitcoin crash, Theo4 has quietly become one of the most successful and talked-about traders on Polymarket. A crypto analyst known as BeingInvested has revealed on X that since joining the platform in October 2024, Theo4 has made just 14 predictions and has highly concentrated positions that have generated an astonishing $22.05 million in profits. This accumulation places the trader among the largest and most profitable accounts publicly visible on the platform. Related Reading: 70% Of Institutional Investors Aren’t Buying The Bitcoin Top Narrative – Here’s Why Theo4 placed huge bets at prices that turned out to be still deeply attractive: $0.37 on Donald Trump winning the popular vote, $0.60 on a Trump presidency, 35 cents on a Republican double, and $0.63-$0.66 betting against a Harris win, and several aligned positions reinforcing the same core thesis. Rather than scattering capital across many outcomes, Theo4 has extremely well-timed directional conviction around the Trump sweep narrative. Amid the BTC drawdown, the Epstein theory is making waves. Analyst Zynx argued that it’s disturbing how Bitcoin critics are pushing the Epstein narrative. These are the same people who repeatedly claimed that Strategy was on the verge of liquidation. They cannot tolerate the reality that BTC is winning, so they resort to misinformation to undermine it. Firstly, they labeled BTC as a tool for criminals, and now they are attempting to associate it with some of the most nefarious individuals imaginable. However, no matter how aggressively they try to taint the image of BTC, Zynx noted that it will never stop people from buying, and it is the only thing that sets them free. Why Understanding The Expanded Flat Pattern As the Bitcoin flat pattern continues to develop into its final leg, it’s important to understand how the expanded flat pattern actually behaves. According to Decode, in these structures, the price can break high-time-frame support, print a lower low, and then continue higher afterward. This behavior runs directly against the dominant bearish narrative that a lower low must signal a confirmed bear market. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? CMT Reveals What Traders Need To See Now Decode pointed out that the structure shown on Google and Nvidia charts is not always the case. In reality, it is often the wave of traders going short at the break of the structure that fuels the reversal higher. “Trends are not black and white, bull or bear, but there are other ways to look at things,” Decode noted. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Cboe explores reviving all-or-nothing options as prediction markets hit record volumes and draw billions in retail trading activity.
Through a built-in 'Prediction' feature, Jupiter users can now access Polymarket contracts without leaving the app.
The U.S. government is likely to shut down Saturday morning until the House votes on a funding package, raising the importance of specificity in prediction market bets.
The firm's analysts upgraded Circle shares to a “neutral” rating and raised the share price target to $77.
Mizuho's Dan Dolev revised his bearish outlook on the stablecoin issuer, upgrading the stock to neutral.
Prediction markets on the BNB Chain have seen massive growth over the past months, with the leading platforms within the ecosystem reaching remarkable levels and their cumulative trading volume hitting a new milestone. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price At Risk Of 50% Correction As BTC’s 2022 Bearish Playbook Repeats BNB Chain Sees Prediction Markets Explosion On Monday, BNB Chain announced that prediction markets in the ecosystem reached a new milestone, surpassing the $20.91 billion mark in cumulative trading volume over the weekend. Notably, the BNB Chain has expanded its presence over the past few months, diversifying with key players such as Opinion Labs, Probable, Myriad Markets, Predict.Fun, and XO Markets. Prediction markets are one of the most popular ways to forecast events and manage risk at scale, the BNB Chain explained in a blog post, becoming “powerful tools for smarter decisions in finance, governance, and beyond.” “From elections and sports to AI milestones and macroeconomic shifts, prediction markets transform scattered knowledge into actionable signals. Platforms like Polymarket, which saw over $2B in volume in October 2024, prove that decentralized markets can even outperform centralized forecasters,” they added. According to Dune data, prediction markets within the ecosystem have seen a significant surge since Q4, increasing nearly 89% just in the past month. The data also shows that BNB Chain has taken the lead in weekly trading volume by chain, surpassing off-chain prediction markets, Polygon, Solana, and Base since the start of 2026. Moreover, DeFiLlama data indicate that three platforms in the BNB ecosystem are currently among the top 5 prediction markets, only behind Kalshi and Polymarket, signaling increasing adoption. Opinion Labs ranks third in the list, with its 7-day and 30-day trading volumes reaching $725.56 million and $3.35 billion, respectively. Meanwhile, its open interest exceeded $144 million as of late January. Probable has seen $558 million in volume over the past 7 days and $1.05 billion in the last 30 days. The platform has also reached a $1.4 billion in notional volume and over 17,000 users just a month after its launch. ETF Push And Price Recovery The recent milestone comes as major institutional players share interest in the BNB token. Last week, Grayscale filed an S-1 form with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch a spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) based on the cryptocurrency. If approved, the Grayscale BNB Trust (GBNB) will “reflect the value of BNB held by the Trust, including BNB earned as Staking Consideration” and offer investors exposure to the token without having to hold it directly. As of this writing, BNB’s price has recovered from Sunday’s correction and is attempting to turn a key area back into support. Market observer Rose Premium Signals highlighted that the cryptocurrency bounced from the strong $860 demand zone after the sharp corrective move. Related Reading: Bitcoin Confirms Bearish Structure After $98,000 Rejection — Here’s The Next Potential Target Moreover, it held the key Fibonacci retracement area, “which increases the probability of a bullish reaction.” If the altcoin successfully reclaims the $900 area as support, the analyst suggested that a retest of the $937 and $980 targets could follow. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Kalshi, a federally-approved entity, has been battling state-level enforcement actions over its sports event contracts.
Polymarket has launched new prediction markets tied to Volmex's bitcoin and ether 30-day implied volatility indices.
Polymarket and similar platforms are considered unlicensed gambling operators, leading to blocked access.
Google search interest for "Polymarket" stands at 100, its highest ever level, even exceeding the November 2024 election peak of 99.
Fee generation is accelerating alongside volumes, with weekly revs hitting a record as short-dated markets capture growing share of activity.
Portugal has joined a growing list of countries seeking to block Polymarket amid a rise in election-related wagers.
Betting on political events is illegal in Portugal, and the regulator gave Polymarket 48 hours to cease operations in the country.
A trader exploited thin weekend liquidity and automated market-making bots on Polymarket to lock in a $233,000 profit, sparking debate over whether the strategy crossed the line into market manipulation.
On Jan. 9, Tennessee’s sports betting regulator sent a set of letters that, at first glance, looked like the kind of paperwork most crypto natives scroll past. The message was blunt: stop offering sports-related event contracts to Tennessee residents, void unsettled positions, and refund customers by Jan. 31. The recipients, Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, sit […]
The post Kalshi and Polymarket face a “sports gambling” probe that could void your trades and shut down the market appeared first on CryptoSlate.
Crypto analyst TARA has predicted that the Bitcoin price will still rally despite bearish signals that have surfaced. She highlighted why the flagship crypto could reach this level and what could happen once it touches the price target. Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Surge To $99,000 In an X post, TARA opined that the Bitcoin price will reach $99,300, even though the flagship crypto is printing a bearish candlestick. She stated that BTC wants to touch this price target before it retraces deeper so that the correction does not break the critical support at $90,000. The analyst added that retracement levels for BTC will continue to be adjusted, with the new 2026 high above $97,000, while revealing subwaves on the way to the full target at $103,000. Related Reading: Analyst Outlines The Bulllish And Bearish Scenarios For Bitcoin – Here’s What To Know Notably, crypto traders are currently betting on the Bitcoin price rallying past the $99,000 level and reaching the psychological $100,000 level. Polymarket data shows a 48% chance that BTC will rally to $100,000 this month. This follows the flagship crypto’s recent rally from around $92,000 to above $97,000 following the release of the soft CPI inflation data earlier this week. The spot Bitcoin ETFs have also contributed to the Bitcoin price surge to start the year. In an X post, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas highlighted that ETFs recorded net inflows of $843 million on January 14 and now boast 1-week net inflows of $1 billion and $1.5 billion year-to-date (YTD). With BTC rallying to $97,000 after trading sideways towards the end of last year, Balchunas opined that the buyers may have exhausted the sellers. Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Rally On Rising Liquidity In his latest blog post, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted that the Bitcoin price could sustain this rally as dollar liquidity rapidly increases. Hayes expects dollar liquidity to increase as U.S. President Donald Trump finds more ways to inject liquidity into the economy. The BitMEX co-founder highlighted how Trump plans to lower mortgage rates, which could cause Americans to borrow more. Related Reading: What’s Going On With Bitcoin And The Stock Market? Analyst Breaks It Down Hayes also mentioned that the liquidity in 2025 didn’t support crypto portfolios, which is why the Bitcoin price underperformed. He urged market participants not to draw wrong conclusions from the 2025 underperformance, as it was always a liquidity story rather than a cyclical bear market, as some analysts suggested. More liquidity could also flow into the market as Trump nominates a rate-cut advocate to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell. This could lead to larger rate cuts, which would be bullish for the Bitcoin price and the broader crypto market. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $95,300, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
The group says contracts mirror sports betting but lack safeguards, warning transfer portal markets could pose “catastrophic” risks to student athletes.
One trader went against the current trend of low chances for a strike tonight by placing the new $40,000 bet.
Polymarket is already restricted in 33 countries.
Trove Markets’ token sale has drawn scrutiny after last-minute changes, mixed messaging, and alleged irregular trading.
Tennessee's Sports Wagering Council sent cease-and-desist letters to Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com threatening potential criminal prosecution.
The firms, federally regulated by the CFTC, were told to shut down Tennessee-based activity, refund deposits, and void open contracts by Jan. 31.
Mansour distanced Kalshi from 'offshore, unregulated' prediction market platforms with alleged cases of insider trading.
While most Polymarket categories remain fee-free, the platform has enabled fees on its 15-minute crypto markets to fund maker rebates.