Nuclear weapon-themed markets aren’t new on the prediction market platform, but public outcry about the contracts has apparently forced the platform to delete them.
Rulemaking is on the way for prediction markets, said CFTC Chair Mike Selig, as the agency moves to further assert its jurisdiction.
The proposed offering mirrors the probability-based format common on prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.
One trader who made over $2 million in recent months betting against the strikes lost $6.5 million in a single day after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran.
The strikes caused bitcoin’s price to fall and oil futures on Hyperliquid to rise over the regional conflict’s consequences.
The bank said rising volumes, tighter market structure and early institutional engagement are pushing prediction markets beyond their gambling roots toward a new asset class.
Solana app Meteora leads the odds at 43% after the blockchain investigator teased a "major" insider-trading probe set for release on Wednesday.
Dome, which offers a unified API for prediction markets, was developed as part of startup accelerator Y Combinator’s Fall 2025 cohort.
Bitwise filed for prediction market ETFs tied to the 2028 U.S. presidential election amid state regulatory scrutiny on the sector.
The filing marks the latest move by the agency to assert federal jurisdiction over fast-growing prediction markets like Kalshi & Polymarket.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Mike Selig fired a legal warning shot defending his agency's jurisdiction over the event contract space.
Cboe wants to bring back all-or-nothing options, a contract that pays a fixed amount if a condition is met and pays zero if it isn't. While that might sound like a small product refresh, the timing makes it hard to ignore. Prediction markets have trained a new retail reflex: turn a belief into a number […]
The post Wall Street is desperate to copy crypto’s prediction markets as Cboe files for “Yes/No” options appeared first on CryptoSlate.
Buterin proposed replacing the current speculative model with AI-powered hedging tools that help users offset real-world costs like housing and food.
Israeli prosecutors indicted an IDF reservist and a civilian for allegedly using classified military information to place bets on Polymarket.
Bitcoin’s price is often framed as the result of one dominant factor, whether it’s the halving cycle, macro liquidity, or speculative demand, and this view misses the deeper reality of how the asset actually trades. BTC exists within a complex economic environment where multiple forces act simultaneously, each influencing price in different ways. When Bitcoin Cycles And Macro Cycles Overlap Multiple interacting processes shape Bitcoin and the broader business cycle, and the dynamics are more complex than a single narrative. Crypto analyst Giovanni has highlighted on X that the FOMO halving narrative had heavily driven the early BTC cycle, and the social feedback loop matters. At the same time, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) also exhibited a 4-year periodicity, and this does not mean the BTC halving cycle was irrelevant. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is The Money Of The AI-Powered Economy: CryptoQuant CEO These two cycles are interacting, and that interaction is precisely what needs to be quantified and understood, rather than dismissed with hand-waving explanations. Giovanni emphasized that the halving cycle is still real for miners and never disappeared. Block rewards are reduced on a fixed schedule, and that mechanical change directly impacts miner economics. By extension, these effects propagate into the broader BTC economy in one form or another. The explanation is not credible if the pendulum swings from “the 4-year cycle is an illusion” to “the 4-year cycle halving cycle explains everything.” Replacing one oversimplified story with another doesn’t improve understanding; it just shifts the blind spot. There are solid mathematical tools designed to study cycle coupling, phase alignment, and interaction effects. Giovanni argues that applying these tools is the right path, and doing so is unlikely to produce a new simple narrative. What will likely emerge is a richer structure, where internal and external cycles interact in nontrivial ways. How The Model Estimates Up And Down Outcomes An analyst known as The Smart Ape pointed out on X about developing a theoretical probability model to estimate Bitcoin’s up and down price outcomes in the 15-minute markets on Polymarket. The model is intentionally simple, calculating probabilities by using the target price, the current BTC price, and the remaining before the market round closes. What stood out most was how closely the theoretical outputs matched real market probabilities. The difference between the market prices and model probabilities was consistently within a narrow 1-5% range, suggesting that the model tracks actual market behaviour with remarkable accuracy. Related Reading: Top Analyst Says ‘Paper Bitcoin’ Is Driving The Market, Not The 21 Million Supply Cap In this market, probabilities are directly set by traders, which clearly shows how bot-dominated these markets are and are driven by logical rules and algorithms. The Smart Ape argues that if the market were primarily driven by human traders, real probabilities wouldn’t align this tightly with a theoretical model. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Prediction markets entered the mainstream in 2025, with a fourfold surge in annual trading volume as a handful of venues consolidated control over what is rapidly becoming an institutional-scale product, according to a new report from blockchain security firm CertiK. The sector’s total volume rose from $15.8 billion in 2024 to $63.5 billion in 2025, […]
The post Prediction markets hit $64 billion in 2025 but reliance on centralized logins has created a critical security flaw appeared first on CryptoSlate.
Polymarket is partnering with Kaito AI to expand an attention markets rollout tracking mindshare and sentiment, starting in March 2026.
Jump is set to take a fixed amount of equity in prediction market Kalshi, while its stake in Polymarket will grow over time depending on the trading capacity that the firm provides.
Jump Trading is reportedly poised to gain a stake in the two largest prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket.
Courts across the US are split on whether sports-related prediction contracts qualify as regulated financial products or unlicensed gambling.
The Polymarket bet is a reminder that the weirdest corners of crypto are sometimes the only ones going up.
The filings come after Polymarket executives confirmed plans to launch a native POLY token, though no timeline has been announced.
The CFTC has scrapped a 2024 proposal to ban political prediction market contracts just as states double down on oversight.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission tumultuous legal fight with events-contracts firms is done, and its new leader is yanking previous policy efforts.
Nevada regulators accused Coinbase of offering alleged unlicensed sports betting through the exchange's prediction markets.
Hyperliquid, the decentralized exchange (DEX) behind the HYPE token, surprised the market on Monday with a new product initiative that ran counter to the prevailing bearish sentiment across the crypto sector. As several major cryptocurrencies slipped below important technical levels, Hyperliquid’s native token jumped roughly 14% following the announcement, signaling renewed investor interest despite broader market weakness. Hyperliquid’s HIP‑4 Proposal The rally was triggered after the Hyperliquid team revealed details of HIP‑4, a proposal that introduces outcome‑based trading to the platform. Shared via the social media platform X (previously Twitter), the announcement explained that HyperCore — Hyperliquid’s Layer‑1 blockchain engine — will soon support so‑called “outcomes.” These are fully collateralized contracts designed to settle within a predefined range. Unlike traditional leveraged derivatives, outcome contracts do not rely on leverage or liquidations, offering a different approach to derivatives trading. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? CMT Reveals What Investors Need To See Now According to the team, outcomes are intended as a general‑purpose building block that can power use cases such as prediction markets and bounded, options‑like instruments, areas where user demand has been growing. Following the news, HYPE managed to hold firmly above the psychologically important $30 level and was trading near $33.22 at the time of writing. Over the past week alone, the token has surged approximately 48%. The move stands in stark contrast to the performance of the wider market. During the same period, Bitcoin (BTC) fell around 10%, Ethereum (ETH) dropped roughly 18%, and Binance Coin (BNB) slid about 11%. Challenging Polymarket And Kalshi Beyond price action, the Hyperliquid team emphasized the broader implications of the outcome primitive for its ecosystem. Outcomes introduce non‑linear payoff structures and fixed‑duration contracts, expanding the range of financial products that can be built on HyperCore. These contracts are also designed to work alongside existing components such as portfolio margin and the HyperEVM, increasing the overall flexibility of the platform’s infrastructure. At this stage, outcomes remain under development and are currently being tested on Hyperliquid’s testnet. The team noted that standardized, or “canonical,” markets based on objective settlement sources will be launched once development is finalized. Depending on community feedback, Hyperliquid plans to eventually open the system to permissionless deployment, allowing a wider range of users and builders to create their own markets. Market researcher DeFi Ignas described the proposal as an important innovation, highlighting how outcome contracts could be combined with perpetual futures to create more efficient hedging strategies. As an example, he explained that a trader could hold a long ETH perpetual position while simultaneously purchasing an outcome contract that pays out if ETH falls below a certain price level, such as $2,000. According to Ignas, this type of composability is not currently possible on prediction platforms like Polymarket or Kalshi. Ignas also pointed to permissionless market creation as another potential differentiator. HYPE Battles Major Resistance HYPE’s price behavior reflects the instability of the crypto market, despite the euphoria surrounding Hyperliquid’s HIP-4. From a technical sense, $28 served as a major support level during the weekend, preventing further losses. Related Reading: Dogecoin Crash Sends It To Key Demand Zone, Here’s The Level To Watch On the upside, resistance near $34 has capped gains on multiple occasions, including two failed attempts to break higher on Wednesday and Thursday of last week. Whether HYPE can decisively clear this resistance is likely to determine whether the recent rally extends further or gives way to another short‑term correction. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
As the Bitcoin market reels from a sharp sell-off and uncertainty grips the broader crypto space, most attention remains locked on falling prices and broken support levels. Meanwhile, Theo4 is executing with precision on Polymarket, steadily building a reputation as one of the platform’s most dominant traders. While panic and emotion drive losses elsewhere, Theo4’s performance underscores a different approach. How Theo4 Quietly Became Polymarket’s Standout Performer While much of the crypto world fixated on the Bitcoin crash, Theo4 has quietly become one of the most successful and talked-about traders on Polymarket. A crypto analyst known as BeingInvested has revealed on X that since joining the platform in October 2024, Theo4 has made just 14 predictions and has highly concentrated positions that have generated an astonishing $22.05 million in profits. This accumulation places the trader among the largest and most profitable accounts publicly visible on the platform. Related Reading: 70% Of Institutional Investors Aren’t Buying The Bitcoin Top Narrative – Here’s Why Theo4 placed huge bets at prices that turned out to be still deeply attractive: $0.37 on Donald Trump winning the popular vote, $0.60 on a Trump presidency, 35 cents on a Republican double, and $0.63-$0.66 betting against a Harris win, and several aligned positions reinforcing the same core thesis. Rather than scattering capital across many outcomes, Theo4 has extremely well-timed directional conviction around the Trump sweep narrative. Amid the BTC drawdown, the Epstein theory is making waves. Analyst Zynx argued that it’s disturbing how Bitcoin critics are pushing the Epstein narrative. These are the same people who repeatedly claimed that Strategy was on the verge of liquidation. They cannot tolerate the reality that BTC is winning, so they resort to misinformation to undermine it. Firstly, they labeled BTC as a tool for criminals, and now they are attempting to associate it with some of the most nefarious individuals imaginable. However, no matter how aggressively they try to taint the image of BTC, Zynx noted that it will never stop people from buying, and it is the only thing that sets them free. Why Understanding The Expanded Flat Pattern As the Bitcoin flat pattern continues to develop into its final leg, it’s important to understand how the expanded flat pattern actually behaves. According to Decode, in these structures, the price can break high-time-frame support, print a lower low, and then continue higher afterward. This behavior runs directly against the dominant bearish narrative that a lower low must signal a confirmed bear market. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? CMT Reveals What Traders Need To See Now Decode pointed out that the structure shown on Google and Nvidia charts is not always the case. In reality, it is often the wave of traders going short at the break of the structure that fuels the reversal higher. “Trends are not black and white, bull or bear, but there are other ways to look at things,” Decode noted. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Cboe explores reviving all-or-nothing options as prediction markets hit record volumes and draw billions in retail trading activity.
Through a built-in 'Prediction' feature, Jupiter users can now access Polymarket contracts without leaving the app.
The U.S. government is likely to shut down Saturday morning until the House votes on a funding package, raising the importance of specificity in prediction market bets.