The firm's analysts upgraded Circle shares to a “neutral” rating and raised the share price target to $77.
Mizuho's Dan Dolev revised his bearish outlook on the stablecoin issuer, upgrading the stock to neutral.
Prediction markets on the BNB Chain have seen massive growth over the past months, with the leading platforms within the ecosystem reaching remarkable levels and their cumulative trading volume hitting a new milestone. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price At Risk Of 50% Correction As BTC’s 2022 Bearish Playbook Repeats BNB Chain Sees Prediction Markets Explosion On Monday, BNB Chain announced that prediction markets in the ecosystem reached a new milestone, surpassing the $20.91 billion mark in cumulative trading volume over the weekend. Notably, the BNB Chain has expanded its presence over the past few months, diversifying with key players such as Opinion Labs, Probable, Myriad Markets, Predict.Fun, and XO Markets. Prediction markets are one of the most popular ways to forecast events and manage risk at scale, the BNB Chain explained in a blog post, becoming “powerful tools for smarter decisions in finance, governance, and beyond.” “From elections and sports to AI milestones and macroeconomic shifts, prediction markets transform scattered knowledge into actionable signals. Platforms like Polymarket, which saw over $2B in volume in October 2024, prove that decentralized markets can even outperform centralized forecasters,” they added. According to Dune data, prediction markets within the ecosystem have seen a significant surge since Q4, increasing nearly 89% just in the past month. The data also shows that BNB Chain has taken the lead in weekly trading volume by chain, surpassing off-chain prediction markets, Polygon, Solana, and Base since the start of 2026. Moreover, DeFiLlama data indicate that three platforms in the BNB ecosystem are currently among the top 5 prediction markets, only behind Kalshi and Polymarket, signaling increasing adoption. Opinion Labs ranks third in the list, with its 7-day and 30-day trading volumes reaching $725.56 million and $3.35 billion, respectively. Meanwhile, its open interest exceeded $144 million as of late January. Probable has seen $558 million in volume over the past 7 days and $1.05 billion in the last 30 days. The platform has also reached a $1.4 billion in notional volume and over 17,000 users just a month after its launch. ETF Push And Price Recovery The recent milestone comes as major institutional players share interest in the BNB token. Last week, Grayscale filed an S-1 form with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch a spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) based on the cryptocurrency. If approved, the Grayscale BNB Trust (GBNB) will “reflect the value of BNB held by the Trust, including BNB earned as Staking Consideration” and offer investors exposure to the token without having to hold it directly. As of this writing, BNB’s price has recovered from Sunday’s correction and is attempting to turn a key area back into support. Market observer Rose Premium Signals highlighted that the cryptocurrency bounced from the strong $860 demand zone after the sharp corrective move. Related Reading: Bitcoin Confirms Bearish Structure After $98,000 Rejection — Here’s The Next Potential Target Moreover, it held the key Fibonacci retracement area, “which increases the probability of a bullish reaction.” If the altcoin successfully reclaims the $900 area as support, the analyst suggested that a retest of the $937 and $980 targets could follow. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Kalshi, a federally-approved entity, has been battling state-level enforcement actions over its sports event contracts.
Polymarket has launched new prediction markets tied to Volmex's bitcoin and ether 30-day implied volatility indices.
Polymarket and similar platforms are considered unlicensed gambling operators, leading to blocked access.
Google search interest for "Polymarket" stands at 100, its highest ever level, even exceeding the November 2024 election peak of 99.
Fee generation is accelerating alongside volumes, with weekly revs hitting a record as short-dated markets capture growing share of activity.
Portugal has joined a growing list of countries seeking to block Polymarket amid a rise in election-related wagers.
Betting on political events is illegal in Portugal, and the regulator gave Polymarket 48 hours to cease operations in the country.
A trader exploited thin weekend liquidity and automated market-making bots on Polymarket to lock in a $233,000 profit, sparking debate over whether the strategy crossed the line into market manipulation.
On Jan. 9, Tennessee’s sports betting regulator sent a set of letters that, at first glance, looked like the kind of paperwork most crypto natives scroll past. The message was blunt: stop offering sports-related event contracts to Tennessee residents, void unsettled positions, and refund customers by Jan. 31. The recipients, Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, sit […]
The post Kalshi and Polymarket face a “sports gambling” probe that could void your trades and shut down the market appeared first on CryptoSlate.
Crypto analyst TARA has predicted that the Bitcoin price will still rally despite bearish signals that have surfaced. She highlighted why the flagship crypto could reach this level and what could happen once it touches the price target. Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Surge To $99,000 In an X post, TARA opined that the Bitcoin price will reach $99,300, even though the flagship crypto is printing a bearish candlestick. She stated that BTC wants to touch this price target before it retraces deeper so that the correction does not break the critical support at $90,000. The analyst added that retracement levels for BTC will continue to be adjusted, with the new 2026 high above $97,000, while revealing subwaves on the way to the full target at $103,000. Related Reading: Analyst Outlines The Bulllish And Bearish Scenarios For Bitcoin – Here’s What To Know Notably, crypto traders are currently betting on the Bitcoin price rallying past the $99,000 level and reaching the psychological $100,000 level. Polymarket data shows a 48% chance that BTC will rally to $100,000 this month. This follows the flagship crypto’s recent rally from around $92,000 to above $97,000 following the release of the soft CPI inflation data earlier this week. The spot Bitcoin ETFs have also contributed to the Bitcoin price surge to start the year. In an X post, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas highlighted that ETFs recorded net inflows of $843 million on January 14 and now boast 1-week net inflows of $1 billion and $1.5 billion year-to-date (YTD). With BTC rallying to $97,000 after trading sideways towards the end of last year, Balchunas opined that the buyers may have exhausted the sellers. Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Rally On Rising Liquidity In his latest blog post, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted that the Bitcoin price could sustain this rally as dollar liquidity rapidly increases. Hayes expects dollar liquidity to increase as U.S. President Donald Trump finds more ways to inject liquidity into the economy. The BitMEX co-founder highlighted how Trump plans to lower mortgage rates, which could cause Americans to borrow more. Related Reading: What’s Going On With Bitcoin And The Stock Market? Analyst Breaks It Down Hayes also mentioned that the liquidity in 2025 didn’t support crypto portfolios, which is why the Bitcoin price underperformed. He urged market participants not to draw wrong conclusions from the 2025 underperformance, as it was always a liquidity story rather than a cyclical bear market, as some analysts suggested. More liquidity could also flow into the market as Trump nominates a rate-cut advocate to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell. This could lead to larger rate cuts, which would be bullish for the Bitcoin price and the broader crypto market. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $95,300, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
The group says contracts mirror sports betting but lack safeguards, warning transfer portal markets could pose “catastrophic” risks to student athletes.
One trader went against the current trend of low chances for a strike tonight by placing the new $40,000 bet.
Polymarket is already restricted in 33 countries.
Trove Markets’ token sale has drawn scrutiny after last-minute changes, mixed messaging, and alleged irregular trading.
Tennessee's Sports Wagering Council sent cease-and-desist letters to Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com threatening potential criminal prosecution.
The firms, federally regulated by the CFTC, were told to shut down Tennessee-based activity, refund deposits, and void open contracts by Jan. 31.
Mansour distanced Kalshi from 'offshore, unregulated' prediction market platforms with alleged cases of insider trading.
While most Polymarket categories remain fee-free, the platform has enabled fees on its 15-minute crypto markets to fund maker rebates.
US Rep. Ritchie Torres said he will introduce legislation to curb what he and other lawmakers describe as possible insider trading on prediction markets, after a single, highly timed wager on Polymarket paid off when Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was captured. Related Reading: Bitcoin Dominance Grows As Altcoins Post Another Losing Year: Analyst Reports have disclosed that the bill — being called the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 — would bar federally elected officials, political appointees and executive branch staff from trading on event markets when they hold material nonpublic information. Public Integrity In Focus According to reporting, a newly created Polymarket account placed roughly $32,500 in bets on a contract that asked whether Maduro would be out of power by January 31, 2026. That stake bought about 438,000 shares when the market price was as low as $0.07 per share late Friday. Within about 24 hours, after action by US forces and an announcement by US President Donald Trump, the position surged—returning more than $400,000 to the account. NEW — RITCHIE TORRES (D-N.Y.) will introduce a bill on this. Bill will be called the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 Description, per a source: This bill prohibits federal elected officials, political appointees, and Executive Branch employees… https://t.co/eZZ9BmAMgJ — Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) January 3, 2026 The trade’s timing set off immediate questions. Social media users and some investors flagged the purchase as suspicious because it came hours before the public announcement. Observers noted that prediction markets can move quickly on small flows of information, and that enforcement rules vary across platforms. Reports note that other markets, like Kalshi, had priced similar outcomes at roughly $0.13, underlining how unexpected the outcome was to many traders. A newly created Polymarket account invested over $30,000 yesterday in Maduro’s exit. The US then took Maduro into custody overnight, and the trader profited $400,000 in less than 24 hours. Insider trading is not only allowed on prediction markets; it’s encouraged. https://t.co/EtZyW1IWTa pic.twitter.com/MzsU9kOU73 — Joe Pompliano (@JoePompliano) January 3, 2026 How The Bill Would Work Torres’s proposal would adapt principles from existing rules that limit trading by officials in traditional securities markets and extend them to online prediction exchanges. The draft language aims to make it unlawful for covered government figures to trade on contracts tied to government actions or political events when they possess nonpublic information because of their official roles. The measure would also task regulators with clarifying which platforms are covered and how violations would be enforced. Market Reaction And Questions Platform operators have long said their terms forbid trading on material nonpublic information, but critics say those rules are hard to police in real time. Some analysts and lawmakers argue that this episode shows a gap between written policies and effective oversight. Others warn against overreach that could stifle legitimate market activity used for forecasting and research. Related Reading: A Maduro Bet, A Market Alarm: US Lawmaker Targets Trading Abuses Investigations may look at the account’s origins and any links to people with privileged knowledge. Lawmakers, meanwhile, are pushing for clearer legal guardrails. If Congress moves quickly, new rules could reshape who may legally bet on political and national security events. Featured image from AFP/Getty Images, chart from TradingView
The bill would bar federal employees from trading prediction market contracts tied to government policy when they possess material non-public information.
Prediction markets and analyst desks are sending different signals about Bitcoin’s near-term path. Traders on Polymarket appear cautious, while some big-name firms keep calling for big gains in 2026. Related Reading: Crypto Exchange Korbit Fined $1.90 Million By South Korean Regulators Market Odds And Trader Caution According to Polymarket prices, Bitcoin has just a 23% chance of reaching $150,000 before 2027. The odds are higher at lower targets: 47% for $120,000, 35% for $130,000 and 29% for $140,000. Traders are most comfortable with $100,000, which carries about an 80% chance. That spread shows bettors are pricing risk tightly as the clock runs toward the new year. Bitcoin closed 2025 in the red, a fact that has likely cooled some enthusiasm. Reports have disclosed that gold and silver hit fresh highs in the fourth quarter of 2025, while crypto prices held mostly flat. The old four-year halving cycle that many chartists relied on is being questioned, and that doubt is being priced in. Technical Signals Based on the latest Bitcoin price outlook, BTC is expected to climb 3% to about $91,815 by February 1, 2026. Technical signals point to a Bearish mood, while the Fear & Greed Index stands at 28, reflecting Fear. Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin posted gains on 15 of those days, or 50%, with price swings averaging 2%. Policy Shifts Could Change The Math US President Donald Trump is expected to name a new Federal Reserve chair soon, and many market participants are betting that interest rates will be cut afterward. That idea has already helped send precious metals higher. At the same time, regulators in Washington are pushing crypto bills such as the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act, which backers say could give clearer rules and, in time, more institutional interest. Analysts Still Offer Bullish Targets Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has publicly predicted that Bitcoin could reach $180,000 by the end of 2026, citing stronger institutional interest and better regulatory clarity as reasons for his bullish outlook. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Bear Market Might Not Be New: Data Points To A 2-Month Slide Analysts at JPMorgan have suggested a theoretical Bitcoin price around $170,000 in 2026, based on a model comparing Bitcoin’s behavior to gold and assuming continued capital flows into the crypto market. Grayscale’s 2026 digital asset outlook expects Bitcoin to exceed its previous all-time high in the first half of 2026, implying a move above its record peak of around $126,000 (though not giving a specific numerical target, the implication is toward significant upward momentum). Policymakers, traders and analysts are all weighing different risks. Market prices reflect caution today, while forecasts offer a brighter view for the months ahead. Which one proves right will depend on policy moves, investor appetite and whether new trading patterns replace the cycle many thought they could count on. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Experts say credibility and transparency in market outcomes will ultimately determine the winners in the prediction market race.
Polymarket and Kalshi achieved multi-billion dollar valuations as investors bet the companies will scale exponentially.
The platform attributed the incident to a third-party login provider, which several users speculated was Magic Labs, a popular tool for email-based logins.
While Polymarket did not name the third-party provider, some users speculated on social media that the vulnerability is linked to Magic Labs.
The company has recently become more active in prediction markets space including a partnership with Kalshi.