Valory co-founder David Minarsch says autonomous agents running on the Olas protocol are giving retail traders a 24/7, strategy-driven edge on platforms like Polymarket.
The agency that once fought the events contracts platforms in court has now issued a new policy stance and is proposing permanent rules for oversight.
The bill comes as the CFTC reviews its approach to event-based prediction markets, preparing new guidance to clarify how they should operate.
Senate Democrats' bill would write the prohibition into federal law even as the CFTC shifts toward a more permissive stance on event contracts.
The new monitoring platform aims to detect suspicious trading as prediction markets face scrutiny over insider information.
The fundraising push arrives amid escalating regulatory and political headwinds and mounting insider trading allegations linked to geopolitical contracts.
Kalshi, approved by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, was last valued at $11 billion, while Polymarket was valued at $9 billion.
Washington lawmakers are moving on multiple fronts to curb the most politically toxic corners of prediction markets after millions of dollars flowed into bets tied to US-linked military action in Iran. Over the past week, several Democratic lawmakers have been pursuing multiple paths to rein in the fast-rising business. One effort, led by Rep. Mike […]
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Nuclear weapon-themed markets aren’t new on the prediction market platform, but public outcry about the contracts has apparently forced the platform to delete them.
Rulemaking is on the way for prediction markets, said CFTC Chair Mike Selig, as the agency moves to further assert its jurisdiction.
The proposed offering mirrors the probability-based format common on prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.
One trader who made over $2 million in recent months betting against the strikes lost $6.5 million in a single day after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran.
The strikes caused bitcoin’s price to fall and oil futures on Hyperliquid to rise over the regional conflict’s consequences.
The bank said rising volumes, tighter market structure and early institutional engagement are pushing prediction markets beyond their gambling roots toward a new asset class.
Solana app Meteora leads the odds at 43% after the blockchain investigator teased a "major" insider-trading probe set for release on Wednesday.
Dome, which offers a unified API for prediction markets, was developed as part of startup accelerator Y Combinator’s Fall 2025 cohort.
Bitwise filed for prediction market ETFs tied to the 2028 U.S. presidential election amid state regulatory scrutiny on the sector.
The filing marks the latest move by the agency to assert federal jurisdiction over fast-growing prediction markets like Kalshi & Polymarket.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Mike Selig fired a legal warning shot defending his agency's jurisdiction over the event contract space.
Cboe wants to bring back all-or-nothing options, a contract that pays a fixed amount if a condition is met and pays zero if it isn't. While that might sound like a small product refresh, the timing makes it hard to ignore. Prediction markets have trained a new retail reflex: turn a belief into a number […]
The post Wall Street is desperate to copy crypto’s prediction markets as Cboe files for “Yes/No” options appeared first on CryptoSlate.
Buterin proposed replacing the current speculative model with AI-powered hedging tools that help users offset real-world costs like housing and food.
Israeli prosecutors indicted an IDF reservist and a civilian for allegedly using classified military information to place bets on Polymarket.
Bitcoin’s price is often framed as the result of one dominant factor, whether it’s the halving cycle, macro liquidity, or speculative demand, and this view misses the deeper reality of how the asset actually trades. BTC exists within a complex economic environment where multiple forces act simultaneously, each influencing price in different ways. When Bitcoin Cycles And Macro Cycles Overlap Multiple interacting processes shape Bitcoin and the broader business cycle, and the dynamics are more complex than a single narrative. Crypto analyst Giovanni has highlighted on X that the FOMO halving narrative had heavily driven the early BTC cycle, and the social feedback loop matters. At the same time, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) also exhibited a 4-year periodicity, and this does not mean the BTC halving cycle was irrelevant. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is The Money Of The AI-Powered Economy: CryptoQuant CEO These two cycles are interacting, and that interaction is precisely what needs to be quantified and understood, rather than dismissed with hand-waving explanations. Giovanni emphasized that the halving cycle is still real for miners and never disappeared. Block rewards are reduced on a fixed schedule, and that mechanical change directly impacts miner economics. By extension, these effects propagate into the broader BTC economy in one form or another. The explanation is not credible if the pendulum swings from “the 4-year cycle is an illusion” to “the 4-year cycle halving cycle explains everything.” Replacing one oversimplified story with another doesn’t improve understanding; it just shifts the blind spot. There are solid mathematical tools designed to study cycle coupling, phase alignment, and interaction effects. Giovanni argues that applying these tools is the right path, and doing so is unlikely to produce a new simple narrative. What will likely emerge is a richer structure, where internal and external cycles interact in nontrivial ways. How The Model Estimates Up And Down Outcomes An analyst known as The Smart Ape pointed out on X about developing a theoretical probability model to estimate Bitcoin’s up and down price outcomes in the 15-minute markets on Polymarket. The model is intentionally simple, calculating probabilities by using the target price, the current BTC price, and the remaining before the market round closes. What stood out most was how closely the theoretical outputs matched real market probabilities. The difference between the market prices and model probabilities was consistently within a narrow 1-5% range, suggesting that the model tracks actual market behaviour with remarkable accuracy. Related Reading: Top Analyst Says ‘Paper Bitcoin’ Is Driving The Market, Not The 21 Million Supply Cap In this market, probabilities are directly set by traders, which clearly shows how bot-dominated these markets are and are driven by logical rules and algorithms. The Smart Ape argues that if the market were primarily driven by human traders, real probabilities wouldn’t align this tightly with a theoretical model. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Prediction markets entered the mainstream in 2025, with a fourfold surge in annual trading volume as a handful of venues consolidated control over what is rapidly becoming an institutional-scale product, according to a new report from blockchain security firm CertiK. The sector’s total volume rose from $15.8 billion in 2024 to $63.5 billion in 2025, […]
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Polymarket is partnering with Kaito AI to expand an attention markets rollout tracking mindshare and sentiment, starting in March 2026.
Jump is set to take a fixed amount of equity in prediction market Kalshi, while its stake in Polymarket will grow over time depending on the trading capacity that the firm provides.
Jump Trading is reportedly poised to gain a stake in the two largest prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket.
Courts across the US are split on whether sports-related prediction contracts qualify as regulated financial products or unlicensed gambling.
The Polymarket bet is a reminder that the weirdest corners of crypto are sometimes the only ones going up.
The filings come after Polymarket executives confirmed plans to launch a native POLY token, though no timeline has been announced.