THE LATEST CRYPTO NEWS

Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent pullback may be less about crypto‑specific weakness and more about macroeconomic fears, according to André Dragosch, Bitwise’s Head of Research for Europe.  In a social media post published Wednesday, Dragosch argued that the world’s largest cryptocurrency appears to be pricing in a potential deep US recession. If that downturn ultimately fails to materialize, he suggested, Bitcoin could be positioned for a significant rebound. Is Bitcoin Facing A Quantum Risk Premium? Dragosch described Bitcoin as fundamentally a macro‑driven asset. Historically, he estimates that roughly 90% of its performance can be explained by broad economic forces such as growth expectations, global liquidity conditions and monetary policy trends.  However, he acknowledged that there are periods when Bitcoin temporarily decouples from these drivers. In his view, the market may currently be in one of those transitional phases. Related Reading: UNI Rallies 10% As BlackRock Brings Treasury‑Backed BUIDL Token To Uniswap Part of the recent divergence, he noted, may stem from concerns unrelated to traditional macro factors. Some market participants have pointed to what Dragosch referred to as a “quantum discount.”  This narrative suggests that long‑term holder selling and speculation about the eventual emergence of quantum‑resistant cryptography could be weighing on Bitcoin’s valuation.  He observed that Bitcoin’s relative underperformance compared with Bitcoin Cash (BCH), which is perceived to have a clearer near‑term roadmap for quantum resilience, may reflect that line of thinking.  By his rough estimate, markets could be assigning as much as a 25% probability to quantum‑related risk, whereas he believes a more realistic discount would be closer to 5%, given that any meaningful “Q‑Day” threat likely remains far in the future. Rare Macro Mispricing Opportunity More recently, Dragosch said Bitcoin’s sensitivity to macroeconomic developments has begun to increase again. That shift has coincided with weakness in software equities, adding further downward pressure to the cryptocurrency.  In his assessment, the latest correction has produced one of the largest macro mispricings in Bitcoin’s history. He pointed to residuals between forward‑looking economic indicators and Bitcoin’s implied growth pricing, noting that the current gap is even more pronounced than during the COVID‑19 recession in 2020. In practical terms, Dragosch believes Bitcoin’s current valuation reflects expectations of a deep US recession. Should such a downturn fail to occur, he argues that the resulting setup could represent one of the more asymmetric risk‑reward opportunities seen in Bitcoin to date. Related Reading: Strategy Unfazed By Bitcoin Crash, Michael Saylor Vows Quarterly Purchases He also emphasized that macroeconomic signals are not uniformly negative. Industrial commodity markets are showing early signs of renewed momentum, while US ISM data has returned to expansion territory.  Leading indicators such as Germany’s Ifo survey and Taiwanese semiconductor export data are trending upward. Additionally, global rate‑cutting cycles have historically preceded stabilization in forward growth expectations.  Taken together, these factors suggest that global growth prospects may not be deteriorating as sharply as some fear. Such an environment, Dragosch noted, typically supports risk assets like Bitcoin while diminishing relative demand for gold.  He highlighted that the BTC-to-gold ratio currently sits near levels that historically signal dislocation, which he views as another potential sign of undervaluation. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $67,591, which is about 46% below the all-time high of $126,000 reached during last year’s rally in October.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin is printing on-chain loss-taking on a scale last seen during the Luna/UST meltdown, but at a radically different price point, a distinction that changes what the signal likely means for this drawdown. Axel Adler Jr. said Bitcoin’s Net Realized Profit/Loss has sunk deep into negative territory, with the 7-day moving average falling to -$1.99 billion on Feb. 7 before improving slightly to -$1.73 billion by Feb. 10. That places the current regime among the most severe loss-dominant stretches on record. Adler described it as “the second deepest negative reading in the entire history of observations,” exceeded only by June 18, 2022, when the metric hit -$2.24 billion amid the Luna/UST crash and cascading liquidations. The key detail, Adler argues, is persistence. Net Realized Profit/Loss has stayed below roughly -$1.7 billion for five consecutive days, forming what he framed as a sustained cluster of seller pressure, the kind of multi-day compression that typically marks capitulation behavior rather than a single shock print. In Adler’s framing, the mechanic is straightforward: realized losses are dominating realized profits on moved coins, and the market is working through the supply owned by participants forced or willing to sell below their cost basis. Related Reading: These Three Catalysts Could Spark Bitcoin’s Next Rally, According To Wintermute “The depth and duration of the current negative regime point to massive capitulation of participants who bought coins at higher levels,” he wrote. “The key reversal trigger is the return of Net Realized Profit/Loss above zero, which would signal the market’s transition from loss dominance to profit dominance. As long as the metric remains in deeply negative territory, seller pressure persists.” Bitcoin Losses Match Luna Crash Scale The companion chart, Bitcoin Realized Loss (7DMA), shows realized losses rising to about $2.3 billion on Feb. 7 and holding near that level through Feb. 10, another rarity in historical context. Adler called it “one of the highest smoothed levels in the entire history of observations,” explicitly comparing it to June 2022. He also emphasized that the 7-day smoothing understates peak stress in real time. At the height of the 2022 episode, Adler noted, single-day losses were roughly three times higher than the weekly-smoothed figure. In the current window, he pointed to a single-day realized loss of $6.05 billion on Feb. 5, the second-largest one-day loss in Bitcoin’s history, according to his note. The headline comparison, however, is not just magnitude but setting. In 2022, a similar realized-loss regime occurred with bitcoin trading around $19,000. This time, Adler says, the losses are being crystallized around $67,000 after a pullback from $125,000, a context he frames as a correction that is flushing out late entries rather than an ecosystem-wide failure cascade. Related Reading: Bitcoin Chart Screams 2022 Bear Market, Until You Notice What’s Missing “Back then, Realized Loss at $2.7B was occurring at a price of $19K,” Adler wrote. “Now, comparable loss volumes are being locked in at a price of $67K, which suggests not a systemic crash but rather a flushing out of late bull-cycle entries. This is capitulation of local top buyers, not a fundamental loss of network value.” Adler’s playbook puts two markers front and center. The first is a sustained move of Net Realized Profit/Loss (7DMA) back above zero for multiple weeks, which he frames as the transition from loss dominance to profit dominance. The second is a decline of Realized Loss (7DMA) below $1 billion, which would indicate that the wave of forced or pain-driven selling is fading. The risk, in his view, is that the market’s “cleansing stress” shifts into something more final if price weakness compounds. Adler flagged the sub-$60,000 area as a line where continued growth in realized losses alongside further price decline could turn a correction into “full-blown capitulation”, not because the current prints are small, but because the regime could extend and deepen. For now, Adler’s core claim is that Bitcoin is producing Luna-sized loss signals without Luna-like structural damage. Same order of magnitude on-chain, different story in the tape. At press time, BTC traded at $67,924. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Robert Kiyosaki, the author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, has once again declared his support for Bitcoin, this time making a direct comparison between the digital asset and gold. In a recent post on social media, the New York Times bestselling author said that if he were forced to choose between the two, he would select Bitcoin over gold, citing the cryptocurrency’s actual design as the deciding factor. His comments quickly led to reactions from his followers, not only because of the comparison but also due to his own recent activity in the crypto market. Bitcoin Is A Better Investment Than Gold According to Kiyosaki, investing in Bitcoin is a much better decision than buying gold, and this is mostly due to the supply dynamics of the two assets. On a surface level, Kiyosaki noted that it would be obviously better to invest in both gold and Bitcoin, while also adding silver for diversification of assets. However, if he had to choose only one asset, he would choose Bitcoin. Related Reading: Contrary To Popular Belief, This Is Not The Worst Bitcoin Crash In History – Here’s The List Kiyosaki’s view on Bitcoin as a better investment is based on its hard supply cap of 21 million coins. Unlike gold, whose total reserves are uncertain and expandable through technological advancements and exploration, Bitcoin’s issuance schedule is mathematically predetermined. The protocol behind BTC makes sure that no more than 21 million coins will ever exist. As of now, over 19 million coins have already been mined, which means the network is close to its maximum supply threshold. According to Kiyosaki, this design is brilliant, and that means the price of Bitcoin should only go up. Based on Kiyosaki’s perspective, engineered scarcity gives Bitcoin a structural advantage over gold. If demand is growing while supply remains fixed, basic economic theory implies upward price pressure over the long term. “Glad I bought my Bitcoin early,” Kiyosaki said. From Selling BTC To Defending His Early Entry Claims Robert Kiyosaki rose to prominence with his 1997 bestselling book on personal finance called Rich Dad Poor Dad, which eventually rolled over into a series of personal finance books. Over the years, he has broadened his commentary to include real estate, precious metals, commodities, and, more recently, cryptocurrencies. Related Reading: Forget A Bitcoin Yearly Top, BTC Price Might Have Hit A 16-Year Cyclical Peak In late 2025, Kiyosaki disclosed that he had sold a portion of his Bitcoin holdings. The disclosure came in November, around the time the price of Bitcoin fell below $90,000. According to him, he sold roughly $2.25 million worth of Bitcoin, explaining that the coins had originally been acquired years earlier at about $6,000 each. Speaking of buying Bitcoin at $6,000, Kiyosaki is claiming he stopped buying Bitcoin at $6,000. However, he has faced backlash for this claim. Recent community notes show Kiyosaki said on January 23, 2026, that he was continuously buying Bitcoin, alongside other assets like gold, silver, and Ethereum.  Nonetheless, the gold-versus-Bitcoin discussion among investors is unlikely to stop anytime soon. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

XRP and Bitcoin (BTC) were pitted against each other in a recent analysis, with market expert X Finance Bull revealing what early investors could have gained if they had invested $500 into both XRP and BTC in 2014. The analysis compares the performance of both cryptocurrencies over the years, highlighting the factors behind XRP’s growth and sustained momentum. What $500 In Bitcoin And XRP in 2014 Is Worth Today A new analysis by X Finance Bull reveals the dramatic growth potential of early investments in Bitcoin and XRP. According to the report, a $500 investment in XRP at the 2014 lows would be worth approximately $255,000 today. He compares XRP’s gains with those of Bitcoin, noting that if investors had bet the same amount in BTC in 2014, their investments would have grown to around $133,000.  Related Reading: Analysts At Leading Wealth Manager Predict Bitcoin’s 2026 Price, And It’s Very Bullish These figures suggest that XRP outperformed Bitcoin by more than twice over the same period, delivering a 511-fold return, compared to BTC’s 266-fold gain. During that time, XRP’s performance benefited not only from early, steady adoption and speculative interest but also from the continued development of its underlying payment system.  Over the years, XRP has moved beyond a purely speculative asset, gaining more traction as it evolves into a potential global settlement layer. Sharing similar sentiments, X Finance Bull highlighted how XRP’s infrastructure developments have significantly supported its significant price growth today. He noted that the cryptocurrency has seen major progress in areas such as Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), banking licenses, and enterprise-level adoption.  Notably, XRP Spot ETFs officially launched in November 2025, attracting massive inflows that have significantly boosted demand for XRP among institutional investors. In addition, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has conditionally approved Ripple’s application to establish a national trust bank charter. All of these developments have contributed to XRP’s price growth over the past few months.  Investors Reap Rewards For Holding XRP Through Volatility  In his post, X Finance Bull suggested that investors who held onto their XRP positions through the volatile years “know why they held.” Following the cryptocurrency’s dramatic rally above $3, many investors reaped the rewards of staying invested from its lows and trusting in its potential for future price appreciation.  Related Reading: XRP’s 1,500% Path To $24: Analyst Warns Investors To Be Prepared For When The Correction Resolves From 2018 to 2025, XRP struggled with a lawsuit filed by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). During those years of legal turmoil, many investors continued to hold onto their XRP despite the uncertainty and price stagnancy.  Following Ripple’s legal win, XRP surpassed $3 in 2025, marking its first break above that level since 2018. Compared to XRP, Bitcoin has also experienced significant growth in the past few years. After crossing the $100,000 threshold in 2024, BTC continued its surge into 2025, finally hitting a peak above $126,000 in October. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s price is often framed as the result of one dominant factor, whether it’s the halving cycle, macro liquidity, or speculative demand, and this view misses the deeper reality of how the asset actually trades. BTC exists within a complex economic environment where multiple forces act simultaneously, each influencing price in different ways. When Bitcoin Cycles And Macro Cycles Overlap Multiple interacting processes shape Bitcoin and the broader business cycle, and the dynamics are more complex than a single narrative. Crypto analyst Giovanni has highlighted on X that the FOMO halving narrative had heavily driven the early BTC cycle, and the social feedback loop matters. At the same time, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) also exhibited a 4-year periodicity, and this does not mean the BTC halving cycle was irrelevant. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is The Money Of The AI-Powered Economy: CryptoQuant CEO These two cycles are interacting, and that interaction is precisely what needs to be quantified and understood, rather than dismissed with hand-waving explanations. Giovanni emphasized that the halving cycle is still real for miners and never disappeared. Block rewards are reduced on a fixed schedule, and that mechanical change directly impacts miner economics. By extension, these effects propagate into the broader BTC economy in one form or another. The explanation is not credible if the pendulum swings from “the 4-year cycle is an illusion” to “the 4-year cycle halving cycle explains everything.” Replacing one oversimplified story with another doesn’t improve understanding; it just shifts the blind spot. There are solid mathematical tools designed to study cycle coupling, phase alignment, and interaction effects. Giovanni argues that applying these tools is the right path, and doing so is unlikely to produce a new simple narrative. What will likely emerge is a richer structure, where internal and external cycles interact in nontrivial ways. How The Model Estimates Up And Down Outcomes An analyst known as The Smart Ape pointed out on X about developing a theoretical probability model to estimate Bitcoin’s up and down price outcomes in the 15-minute markets on Polymarket. The model is intentionally simple, calculating probabilities by using the target price, the current BTC price, and the remaining before the market round closes. What stood out most was how closely the theoretical outputs matched real market probabilities. The difference between the market prices and model probabilities was consistently within a narrow 1-5% range,  suggesting that the model tracks actual market behaviour with remarkable accuracy. Related Reading: Top Analyst Says ‘Paper Bitcoin’ Is Driving The Market, Not The 21 Million Supply Cap In this market, probabilities are directly set by traders, which clearly shows how bot-dominated these markets are and are driven by logical rules and algorithms. The Smart Ape argues that if the market were primarily driven by human traders, real probabilities wouldn’t align this tightly with a theoretical model. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

Michael Saylor, the outspoken Bitcoin (BTC) advocate and Strategy (previously MicroStrategy) co-founder, said on Tuesday that the company remains firmly committed to its long‑standing Bitcoin strategy, despite growing concerns about its financial risks. Strategy Will Buy Bitcoin Every Quarter Speaking in an interview with CNBC, Saylor said Strategy plans to continue buying Bitcoin on a regular basis, regardless of price swings or skepticism from market observers.  He said the company intends to add to its Bitcoin holdings every quarter and has no plans to reverse course. “I expect we’ll be buying bitcoin every quarter forever,” Saylor said. Related Reading: Strategy Expands Bitcoin Holdings With $90M Purchase, Bitmine Follows With ETH Addressing concerns about the company’s debt load, Saylor was dismissive of the idea that a prolonged Bitcoin downturn could threaten Strategy’s finances.  He said that even in a severe scenario, the company would manage its obligations through refinancing. “If Bitcoin falls 90% for the next four years, we’ll refinance the debt,” he said. “We’ll just roll it forward.” Strategy currently carries more than $8 billion in total debt, much of it tied to convertible notes the company issued to fund Bitcoin purchases. Despite this leverage, Saylor said he believes lenders will continue to support the company even if Bitcoin prices decline sharply.  Asked whether banks would still be willing to lend under those circumstances, he replied that Bitcoin’s inherent volatility does not undermine its long‑term value. “Yeah,” he said, “because the volatility of Bitcoin is such that it’s always going to be a value.” Saylor also rejected any suggestion that Strategy might be forced to sell its Bitcoin holdings to shore up its balance sheet. He emphasized that liquidation is not part of the company’s plan and reiterated his belief in Bitcoin as a long‑term asset. Short Sellers Increase Bets  Market sentiment around Strategy, however, has grown more cautious. Short interest in the company’s stock has risen sharply, increasing about 40% from a low point in September 2025, according to an analysis published by Barron’s.  Roughly 30.5 million shares are now sold short, representing about 10% of the company’s public float. At the same time, long‑term investors have pulled back, with Strategy’s shares, MSTR, falling around 70% to current trading prices of $134.  Related Reading: Bernstein Calls Bitcoin Crash A ‘Crisis Of Confidence,’ Maintains $150,000 Target Despite the pressure on its stock, Strategy remains the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. According to figures published on the company’s website, it holds 714,644 BTC, valued at approximately $49 billion at the time of writing.  Saylor also noted that the company has sufficient liquidity to support its obligations, stating that Strategy has roughly two and a half years’ worth of cash on its balance sheet to cover dividend payments. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at around $69,192, registering losses of nearly 8% over the past seven days and 3% over the past 24 hours.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

BlockTower Capital CIO and co-founder Ari Paul laid out a starkly bifurcated view of the Bitcoin and crypto market on X late Monday, arguing the current drawdown could either mark a permanent peak in “organic adoption” for today’s crop of liquid tokens or simply a higher-timeframe correction before another speculative leg higher. Paul said he’s “50%/50% between two scenarios,” framing the split as a practical portfolio problem rather than a call for a single narrative. The post landed into an already frayed tape, and quickly drew pushback from other market commentators who viewed the 50/50 framing as evasive. Has Bitcoin Reached Its ‘Final Top’? In Paul’s bearish “A” scenario, the core claim is saturation: crypto has now enjoyed “every tailwind imaginable”: ubiquitous brand recognition, even political amplification, and what he described as effectively non-existent regulatory headwinds under the current US administration, yet demand and real usage have not expanded beyond prior cycles. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Hear ‘Fed–Treasury Accord’ And Smell Yield-Curve Control He pointed to experiments that fizzled, writing that “El Salvador kind of adopted and then abandoned bitcoin…not helpful or useful to their people,” and argued many apps and institutions “tried crypto, wasn’t useful to their needs in current form.” Paul analogized the setup to the internet’s 2000-era shakeout: the idea remains world-changing, but most tokens and protocols might not survive it. He also warned liquidation risk may not be finished, noting that while “we saw some big liquidations in the market…plenty of larger ones to go potentially, pushing things far lower.” The bullish “B” scenario leans on macro mood and market structure. Paul argued crypto could still be a beneficiary of what he called “late stage capitalism and financial nihilism,” with bitcoin and other assets drawing speculative flows and occasional demand for “fiat alternatives.” He added that, beyond price, builders are still shipping and usage is “quietly growing” in niches — and that crypto remains a fertile arena for “coordinated pumps by the rich and powerful,” implying the incentive structure for volatility hasn’t vanished. “If these two scenarios were really 50% each,” he wrote, “a moderate allocation to crypto would be sensible due to the asymmetric upside.” Blockchain Investment Group CIO Eric Weiss criticized Paul’s post as “classic fence-sitting,” arguing it offered “zero actionable insight.” Paul shot back that constant directional certainty is “dishonest (or idiotic),” and defended probability-weighted positioning as standard practice for traders and PMs. “I shared the exact decision I made as a result of this analysis,” Paul wrote. “Traders and portfolio managers are always optimizing across probabilities…nothing novel there. And often the best decision is to be flat an asset, at least for a time.” Paul also suggested Weiss’ frustration was less about the framing and more about P&L, adding he has “consistently cautioned against the buffoonish ‘number can only go up’ theocracy that led so many to take risks and make decisions they regret.” Related Reading: Retail Dumps, Bitcoin Inflows Surge: On-Chain Data Flags Capitulation The exchange broadened when VP of Investor Relations at Nakamoto Steven Lubka argued there’s a “60-70% probability” that most of crypto outside “Stablecoins and infrastructure for TradFi” has “run its course,” while bitcoin likely persists as a global store-of-value competitor. Paul’s reply drilled into bitcoin’s long-run equilibrium and the business models built around it. “I could see BTC ‘surviving’ in collectible form, but imo, it’s ‘unstable’ in current form,” he wrote. “It needs to be bigger or smaller. If BTC price stabilizes, the security budget gradually dwindles to near zero. It’s already comically low relative to BTC market cap today, but that ratio will worsen substantially as inflation rewards continue declining.” He then tied that dynamic to what he described as “extraction” by intermediaries. “Exchanges, brokerages, and custodians, are constantly profiting/extracting,” Paul wrote. “Without a constant influx of new money buying, price naturally falls due to all the extraction. If BTC just stabilized here and chugged along, very few crypto businesses survive in current form. Coinbase for example would probably face a 90%+ haircut in value.” Paul’s Positioning On the tactical side, Paul said he hadn’t traded crypto “at all in 6 months” and “narrowly missed selling most crypto when BTC got to $125k,” adding he had hoped for $135k as a medium-term high but found the selloff “deeper/longer than I expected.” Now, with volatility rising, he said he’s trading more actively and is currently “playing from the long side” into a bounce, with plans to “re-evaluate with BTC around $90k.” He also floated a middle-path outcome: bitcoin could trade as low as $15,000–$40,000 for a year before making new highs, potentially catalyzed by forced selling from crypto firms, including a supposed MicroStrategy-driven stress event, though he noted liquidation is not the only risk and questioned whether debt rollovers or covenants could force behavior short of a wipeout. At press time, BTC traded at $69,178. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto market maker Wintermute published a detailed market update on Tuesday via X (previously Twitter), offering a comprehensive breakdown of Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent collapse, who was behind the selling pressure, and what conditions must change for a meaningful recovery to take hold. Wintermute Details Brutal Bitcoin Crash The firm described the past week as exceptionally severe for Bitcoin. Prices fell below $80,000 for the first time since April 2025 and continued sliding to around $60,000 before stabilizing in the low $70,000 range by the weekend.  According to Wintermute, the decline erased all of Bitcoin’s gains that followed Donald Trump’s election victory in November 2024, accompanied by widespread liquidations.  Related Reading: Bernstein Calls Bitcoin Crash A ‘Crisis Of Confidence,’ Maintains $150,000 Target More than $2.7 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out as months of range‑bound trading encouraged excessive leverage that ultimately unraveled.  Wintermute also pointed to the growing influence of Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) on price action, noting that BlackRock’s IBIT ETF alone saw more than $10 billion in notional trading volume on Thursday.  Wintermute identified three major catalysts that struck the market at the same time. The first was the January 30 nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair, which altered expectations around monetary policy.  The second was a wave of disappointing earnings from large technology firms, highlighted by Microsoft shares dropping 10%. The third was a dramatic reversal in precious metals, where silver plunged 40% in just three days after briefly reaching $121.  The Key Conditions For BTC’s Next Recovery Data from spot markets suggest that selling pressure was structural rather than isolated. The Coinbase premium remained in negative territory throughout the decline, a pattern that has persisted since December and signals sustained selling by US investors.  Wintermute said its internal over‑the‑counter (OTC) flow data confirmed that US counterparties were heavy sellers throughout the week, a trend that was reinforced by ongoing ETF redemptions. Institutional demand, which had supported prices earlier in the cycle, has largely faded. Since November, spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded approximately $6.2 billion in cumulative net outflows, representing the longest continuous stretch of redemptions since these products launched.  Wintermute explained that when ETF sponsors are forced to sell spot Bitcoin into falling markets, it creates a negative feedback loop that amplifies downside pressure.  The firm also highlighted growing fragility in derivatives markets. IBIT and Deribit together now account for half of the crypto options market. Wintermute said the sharp sell‑off reflected investor complacency after periods of low volatility and sideways trading, which left positioning vulnerable once prices began to move. Related Reading: Strategy Expands Bitcoin Holdings With $90M Purchase, Bitmine Follows With ETH Beyond crypto‑specific factors, Wintermute argued that the broader investment landscape has been dominated by artificial intelligence. The firm pointed to a viral chart showing Bitcoin’s performance closely mirroring software stocks in the S&P 500.  According to Wintermute, the more important takeaway is that AI has been absorbing a disproportionate share of global capital, often at the expense of other asset classes, including crypto. Looking ahead, Wintermute expects a period of uneven and volatile price discovery. The firm said it is difficult to envision a sustained rally unless several conditions align: the Coinbase premium turning positive, ETF flows reversing back into inflows, and basis rates in derivatives markets stabilizing.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin’s latest drawdown from its all-time high is being compared to 2022 across crypto Twitter (the similarities are obvious), but some technicians argue the similarity is mostly superficial. In a series of posts, TexasWest Capital CEO Christopher Inks said the current move looks like a completed five-wave decline tied to a positioning washout, not the kind of structurally driven breakdown that defined the 2022 unwind. Bitcoin Vs. 2022: Similar Chart, Different Story? Inks’ core claim is about where the market sits in the broader pattern. “One of the differences between the current drop off the ATH and the 2022 drop of ATH is that we just appear to have completed 5 waves down,” he wrote. “Back then the same area everyone is referencing had already completed five down, the three wave correction, and then broken down further.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Could See New Drop To $60,000 Despite Bounce – Here’s The Level To Defend On his weekly BTCUSD chart, Inks annotated what he sees as a five-wave decline into early 2026, followed by sideways consolidation around a “weekly pivot,” after what he described as a sharp recovery late last week. The implication is less about calling a definitive bottom and more about sequencing: if the five-wave leg is complete, the next phase is typically corrective or base-building rather than an immediate continuation lower. Inks also separated the catalysts. The 2022 breakdown coincided with the TerraUSD depeg and ensuing market dislocation, a reflexive shock that tightened collateral and impaired liquidity across venues. By contrast, he framed last week’s selling as risk reduction rather than crisis fallout. “Another difference between the two periods is that the former coincided with the TerraUSDT depeg and break down which was a market structural event that was the catalyst for the Bitcoin breakdown at that time,” Inks wrote. “As I’ve been mentioning, last week’s breakdown was a degrossing (risk-off position reduction). These are two wholly different market moves.” “Does this guarantee that the low is in? Of course not, but if you’re comparing two events then you should compare how they occurred and not just that the price action looks kinda similar,” he added. “That way, if price does something other than what it did last time you won’t be running around in disbelief screaming ‘manipulation’ and ‘what’s going on!’” Related Reading: Retail Dumps, Bitcoin Inflows Surge: On-Chain Data Flags Capitulation Inks said Bitcoin failed to reclaim a weekly close back inside the prior range around $75,000, leaving open the possibility that the selloff was a “terminal shakeout” rather than the start of a deeper trend. His roadmap, however, was explicitly time-based: he wants to see the low hold for “the next 2–3 weeks” with “declining volumes on the pullbacks,” plus a higher low on the weekly timeframe and “compression below resistance instead of rejection.” He also tied the move to rates positioning. Inks pointed to a two-year Treasury note futures chart that, in his view, remained coiled rather than breaking higher alongside the risk-off episode, another data point supporting the idea that last week’s selling was “pre-resolution positioning rather than post-crisis fallout.” With regards to the lower timeframes (1-hour chart), Inks urged for patience: “Bitcoin continues to consolidate sideways around the weekly pivot, within the range shown. Not surprising after Friday’s strong recovery. Takes time to build confidence after something like that. And if you are hoping the low is in, then that’s what you should prefer to see rather than continued move straight up without building bases to provide support on pullbacks.” At press time, BTC traded at $68,639. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s mining landscape is showing clear signs of stress as network difficulty records its largest downward adjustment since 2021. The sharp drop reflects a wave of miners shutting off machines or exiting entirely, squeezed by declining profitability, higher operating costs, and prolonged price pressure. As inefficient miners step aside and difficulty adjusts lower, the stage is set for consolidation across the mining sector. What Miner Capitulation Says About Near-Term Bitcoin Sentiment One of the most telling signals in the market is happening right now. The CEO of Coinbureau, known as Nic, revealed on X that Bitcoin mining difficulty just experienced its biggest drop since 2021, which means a meaningful number of miners are either shutting machines off or exiting the network entirely. At the same time, some miners are actively pivoting away from BTC and moving into AI and hyperscale data centers. Related Reading: Retail Dumps, Bitcoin Inflows Surge: On-Chain Data Flags Capitulation Bitfarms is a clear example, as its stock surged after announcing it is no longer positioning itself primarily as a BTC mining company. It’s not just that mining is harder, but because prices are down, and margins are tight. Instead, markets are actively rewarding miners for leaving BTC and reallocating into AI infrastructure, signaling that capital sees more returns outside BTC mining. A Statistical Outlier In Bitcoin Price Action Bitcoin has just printed a 5.65 standard deviation move, an event so extreme that it has occurred only 13 times in more than 5,000 trading days. According to Front Runners on X, Standard deviation measures how far a price move deviates from the average daily change. Most daily BTC moves fall within ±1 standard deviation, which is roughly 70% of the time, and any moves beyond 3 standard deviations are already considered rare. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin’s Reset Complete? BTC Steadies Above $70K as Markets Debate the Next Move A 5+ standard deviation move sits at extreme territory. Historically, BTC has seen similar moves of volatility in January 2015, December 2018, and March 2020, all periods that closely aligned with major cycle bottoms. This doesn’t mean it is a reversal recovery to the upside, as BTC could still consolidate sideways for months. However, this is the kind of volatility move that tends to happen near exhaustion, not mid-trend. This fast and aggressive crypto bear market is likely closer to a bottom than a top. Analyst Scient has highlighted that for Bitcoin and high-quality crypto assets, this is not the environment to chase trades. Instead, it’s the phase to plan buys using a structured Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy over the coming weeks and months. There is no reliable way to time an exact bottom outside of pure luck. As prices trend lower, downside targets will continue to shift lower, creating frustration for anyone trying to trade every move. Scient emphasized that a simple spot accumulation using dollar-cost averaging in BTC and strong alts will outperform gambling on leverage for most participants. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have rebounded from last week’s lows, providing optimism that the bottom may be in. This comes amid accumulation from whales while the crypto ETFs have seen notable inflows following last week’s outflows.  Why The Bitcoin And Ethereum Prices Are Climbing Again The Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have pumped from their last week’s lows of around $60,000 and $1,900, respectively. BTC climbed to as high as $71,000, sparking bullish sentiments that the crash to $60,000 may have marked the bottom. These price surges have come on the back of significant accumulation from both retail and institutional investors.  Related Reading: 5 Red Months In A Row: What’s Going On With Bitcoin And The Crypto Market? In an X post, on-chain analytics platform Lookonchain revealed two whales that are buying Bitcoin and Ethereum. These two newly created wallets are said to have withdrawn 3,500 BTC, worth $249 million, and 30,000 ETH, worth $63 million, from Binance, likely to hold these coins for the long term.  Furthermore, Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have also rebounded due to renewed inflows into BTC and ETH ETFs. SoSoValue data shows that the BTC ETFs recorded a daily net inflow of $145 million yesterday, sustaining the momentum from last Friday, when they took in $371 million, after recording three consecutive days of outflows.  Further data from SoSoValue shows that the Ethereum ETFs saw daily net inflows of $57 million yesterday, reversing the trend after seeing three consecutive daily net outflows. Tom Lee’s BitMine also continues to buy more ETH, which is a positive for the Ethereum price. Lookonchain revealed that BitMine bought 40,000 ETH, worth $83 million, yesterday. These purchases come just after the company announced it had purchased 40,613 ETH, valued at $82.85 million, last week.  Related Reading: Ethereum Price Set To Break Out Against Bitcoin, But How High Can It Go? It is also worth highlighting external factors that have contributed to the recent rise in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran appear to have cooled following talks last Friday, after initial reports that the talks were unlikely to proceed. Meanwhile, traders are beginning to price in the possibility of a rate cut in March after recent job reports came in weak.  Bullish Case For BTC And ETH Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe has made a bullish case for the Bitcoin and Ethereum prices. In an X post, he stated that he expects to see more momentum coming in for BTC, with a clear breakout above $71,500 in the coming days. The analyst added that the pattern is comparable to the COVID crash, and he thinks a rally to between $78,000 and $80,000 could occur in the coming weeks.  For Ethereum, Michaël van de Poppe stated that this is a “tremendous” opportunity to be looking at ETH because there is a massive gap to the ‘fair price.’ He added that ETH’s current valuation, based on the MVRV ratio, is just as underpriced as during notable crashes such as the peak of the 2018 bear market and the April 2025 crash when Trump announced reciprocal tariffs.  Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is tightening between two major liquidity pools, with both bulls and bears sitting on borrowed time. As pressure builds and liquidity stacks on both sides, the next move looks less about direction and more about which side gets wiped out first. HTF Liquidity At $65,300 Remains The Primary Target Lennaert Snyder’s latest Bitcoin analysis remains focused on a significant High-Timeframe (HTF) liquidity pool located around the $65,300 zone. This area is designated as a major box of interest for hunting long positions. Rather than setting a blind entry, the strategy involves waiting for the price to penetrate this zone and then monitoring for high-probability reversal patterns to confirm a bottom. Related Reading: Bernstein Calls Bitcoin Crash A ‘Crisis Of Confidence,’ Maintains $150,000 Target Before reaching the lower HTF liquidity, there are potential local short-selling opportunities to trade the downward move. The first point of interest is the M15 liquidity sweep around $69,900. If the price reaches this level and captures the liquidity, the plan is to initiate a short position only after a confirmed bearish market structure break. A similar short-selling logic applies to the liquidity resting above the $71,450 level. Should Bitcoin push higher and sweep this liquidity, the expert is positioned for a subsequent bearish market structure shift, which signals a move back toward the primary $65,300 target. The analysis emphasizes patience and trigger-based entries over predictive guessing because the exact depth of the test into the $65,300 box is unpredictable. Liquidity Magnets Light Up On Bitcoin 24-Hour Heatmap Coin Adam pointed out that Bitcoin’s 24-hour heat map clearly highlights where liquidity is clustered, raising the key question of which side market makers may target next. According to Adam, current conditions suggest the market is being pulled between two powerful liquidity magnets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Hovers Around $70K As Volatility Goes Quiet On the downside, the $67,800–$68,200 zone stands out as a bright liquidity pool. This area is packed with long positions, making it an attractive target for a downside sweep. Coin Adam noted that a sharp wick into this range to grab liquidity and rebuild momentum remains a very realistic scenario. On the upside, there is also notable short squeeze potential between $71,500 and $72,500, where a heavy concentration of short positions sits. If Bitcoin can hold convincingly above the $70,000 level, a strong bullish candle could push the price above to fill the gap. Overall, Adam explained that price is currently compressed between two major liquidity blocks, a setup that often resolves with a move toward the most prominent target. While both sides remain vulnerable, Coin Adam believes a sweep below $68,000 appears more likely in the near term, before any larger move toward the $72,000–$76,000 region unfolds. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is seeing large institutional withdrawals while XRP is drawing the strongest share of fresh allocations, according to the latest digital asset fund-flow data. On paper, that rotation should support XRP’s valuation. Instead, prices across the market remain under pressure. The disconnect between capital movement and market performance is now forcing a deeper examination of liquidity conditions, regional positioning, and broader cycle dynamics driving the divergence. Bitcoin Outflows Are Driving XRP Inflows Data from CoinShares’ weekly Digital Asset Fund Flows report shows Bitcoin recorded $264 million in outflows over the measured week, making it the only major asset to post significant negative sentiment. The withdrawals extend Bitcoin’s year-to-date outflows to $984 million, reinforcing that institutions are actively reducing exposure rather than passively rebalancing. Related Reading: PlanB Lays Out Four Bitcoin Bear-Market Scenarios At the same time, XRP attracted $63.1 million in weekly inflows — the highest across all tracked assets. Its cumulative inflows have now reached $109 million year-to-date, positioning it as the strongest institutional allocation target so far this year. While Solana drew $8.2 million and Ethereum recorded $5.3 million, neither came close to XRP’s scale, confirming the rotation is concentrated rather than market-wide. Regional flow reinforces the rotation. Germany led with $87.1 million in inflows, followed by Switzerland ($30.1 million), Canada ($21.4 million), and Brazil ($16.7 million). The United States moved in the opposite direction, posting $214 million in weekly outflows and contributing to $1.464 billion in cumulative withdrawals from US -listed products. However, despite XRP’s leadership in inflows, total digital asset investment products still recorded $187 million in net outflows. This indicates that while Bitcoin capital is partly rotating into XRP, a meaningful share is exiting crypto entirely, diluting the price impact of inflows. Liquidity Contraction And Market Structure Are Pressuring Price XRP’s price behavior reflects wider liquidity constraints. The asset is currently trading at $1.42, down 12.3% over the past week. The drop highlights how inflows are being absorbed without translating into immediate price expansion. Related Reading: Expert Says If You Hold XRP, Pay Attention To These Things Moreover, total assets under management across digital asset funds have fallen to $129.8 billion, the lowest since March 2025. With the institutional capital base contracting, new allocations carry less price impact than they would in an expanding market. Trading dynamics further clarify the pressure. Exchange-traded product volumes reached a record $63.1 billion, surpassing the previous $56.4 billion peak recorded in October. High volume alongside falling prices typically signals distribution, liquidations, or hedging rather than accumulation. Bitcoin’s systemic role amplifies the effect. As the market’s primary liquidity anchor, sustained BTC outflows create correlation drag across digital assets, limiting XRP’s ability to respond positively to inflows. CoinShares analysts add that while outflows persist, their pace is slowing — a pattern often associated with late-cycle capitulation and potential bottom formation. Within that framework, XRP’s inflows may represent early institutional positioning ahead of stabilization rather than a catalyst for immediate price expansion. Featured Image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, is continuing its long‑standing Bitcoin (BTC) accumulation strategy despite ongoing market weakness and growing concerns around the firm’s unrealized losses.  At the same time, Bitmine Immersion Technologies, chaired by well‑known market strategist Tom Lee, has revealed a major expansion of its Ethereum (ETH) holdings, underscoring a broader trend of corporate crypto accumulation even as prices remain under pressure. Strategy Adds 1,142 BTC Despite Rising Losses  In a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission disclosed on Monday, Strategy reported the purchase of an additional 1,142 Bitcoin for approximately $90 million.  The acquisition was made between February 2 and February 8 at an average price of $78,815 per coin, according to the company’s 8‑K filing with the regulator. The move extends Strategy’s aggressive Bitcoin buying campaign, even as the value of its massive crypto treasury remains below its total acquisition cost on paper. Related Reading: After Predicting XRP’s Drop, Analyst Says The Bottom May Be In With the latest purchase, Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings have climbed to 714,644 BTC, a position currently valued at roughly $49 billion based on prevailing market prices.  The company has spent about $54.4 billion to build its Bitcoin reserves, including fees and related expenses. Across all acquisitions, Strategy’s average purchase price now stands at $76,056 per Bitcoin, well above current trading prices. Concerns around Strategy’s balance sheet have resurfaced amid the recent Bitcoin sell‑off. As previously reported by NewsBTC, CEO Phong Le stated that Bitcoin would need to fall by roughly 90% from current levels for the value of Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings to merely match the value of its outstanding convertible debt.  Even under such an extreme scenario, Le said the company would explore restructuring options if converting the debt into equity were not feasible. Bitmine’s Crypto And Cash Holdings Reach $10B  On Monday, Bitmine disclosed that its combined crypto holdings, cash, and so‑called “moonshot” investments now total approximately $10 billion. As of February 8, the company’s crypto portfolio includes 4,325,738 ETH valued at $2,125 per token, alongside 193 Bitcoin. Beyond cryptocurrencies, Bitmine reported additional investments including a $200 million stake in Beast Industries, a $19 million stake in Eightco Holdings (ORBS), and total cash reserves of $595 million.  Related Reading: Ethereum Price Set To Break Out Against Bitcoin, But How High Can It Go? The company noted in a Monday press release that its Ethereum holdings represent approximately 3.58% of the total ETH supply, which currently stands at around 120.7 million tokens. Thomas Lee, Executive Chairman of Bitmine, said the company acquired 40,613 ETH over the past week alone. He described the recent pullback in Ethereum prices as an attractive opportunity, arguing that the market is underestimating ETH’s long‑term utility.  Bitmine also revealed that a significant portion of its Ethereum holdings is actively staked. As of February 8, 2026, the company had 2,897,459 ETH staked, valued at approximately $6.2 billion at current prices. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading near $69,495, reflecting an almost 11% decline over the past week. Strategy’s shares showed a modest rebound, rising 0.82% on Monday to trade around $136 per share. Bitmine’s stock, BMNR, also moved higher, climbing roughly 2% during Monday’s session to trade near $20.91. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Kevin Warsh’s push for a new Fed–Treasury “accord” is reigniting a familiar market argument: whether Washington is drifting toward a softer-rate, higher-liquidity regime that tends to favor hard assets, including bitcoin and crypto, even if it raises the stakes for bonds. The debate flared after Bloomberg reported that Kevin Warsh floated the idea of “a new accord with the Treasury Department,” echoing the 1951 agreement that redefined the relationship between the two institutions. Bloomberg reported over the weekend that the concept could amount to a limited bureaucratic revamp, but a more ambitious effort could “see increased volatility and concern over the US central bank’s independence,” depending on how explicitly it links the Fed’s balance sheet decisions to Treasury financing. Looming over the idea is the political pressure to treat debt-service costs as a policy constraint. Bloomberg pointed to interest costs “running at an annual clip of around $1 trillion,” and quoted SGH Macro Advisors’ Tim Duy warning that an accord could be read as something more than process reform. “Rather than insulating the Fed, it could look more like a framework for yield-curve control,” Duy said. “A public agreement that synchronizes the Fed’s balance sheet with Treasury financing explicitly ties monetary operations to deficits.” Related Reading: Retail Dumps, Bitcoin Inflows Surge: On-Chain Data Flags Capitulation Can Bitcoin Get The Bid? In bitcoin circles, the accord conversation is being interpreted through the lens of yield-curve control (YCC) and debt monetization, not just the path of the policy rate. Luke Gromen framed it bluntly, citing a recent FFTT view: “Our base case is that Warsh will be as dovish as Trump needs.” He added a familiar punchline for macro traders: “Math > Narratives (again).” “Our base case is that Warsh will be as dovish as Trump needs.” -FFTT, last week Math > Narratives (again) pic.twitter.com/aHMDlz2jzM — Luke Gromen (@LukeGromen) February 8, 2026 Analyst Lukas Ekwueme took the argument further: “Warsh, the next Fed chair, will inflate the debt away. He is in favor of yield curve control. This means pegging US short-term interest rates to an artificially low level. The Fed commits to buying unlimited amounts above that level to push interest rates down.” In that telling, the Fed pegs yields at “an artificially low level” and backs the peg with potentially unlimited purchases — a structure Ekwueme compared to the World War II era. He argued the political logic is straightforward: nominating someone “more hawkish than Powell” would clash with Trump’s prior attacks on the Fed for being too hawkish, making a dovish tilt the more consistent outcome. Bull Theory, a crypto-focused account, echoed the historical parallel while stressing that Warsh’s public framing is also about reducing the Fed’s entanglement in long-duration government financing. The account argued Warsh could prefer a portfolio shift toward Treasury bills, a smaller balance sheet, and clearer limits on when large bond-buying programs can occur — potentially with “closer coordination with the Treasury on debt issuance.” But it also warned the market shouldn’t confuse “limits” with “tightening” if the end result is a policy mix that suppresses real yields and keeps liquidity conditions easy. CoinFund President Christopher Perkins added: “I continue to think that the crypto markets got the Warsh appointment wrong. A new Fed-Treasury Accord is the plan…has been all along. Additional coordination, or any shift in responsibilities to Scott Bessent and the US Treasury will bullish for crypto IMO–once things settle. At least for the next 3 years.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Taker Buy Ratio Signals Peak Bearish Sentiment — Relief Soon? For bitcoin, the central question is the direction of real yields and the credibility of the “independence” anchor because both feed into how investors price fiat debasement risk and liquidity scarcity. The pro-crypto interpretation is consistent: if an accord evolves into a framework that caps parts of the curve or otherwise lowers real yields, it can push capital out the risk-free complex and into assets that behave like inflation hedges or duration substitutes. Bull Theory put it in plain terms: “If Warsh’s framework leads to lower real yields, rate cuts, and easier liquidity conditions, that usually supports risk assets like equities, gold, and crypto. Because when bond returns fall, capital looks for higher-return alternatives.” The caveat is that the same setup could increase volatility in rates markets. Bloomberg flagged that an ambitious accord could spook investors about the Fed’s independence, while Bull Theory argued that reduced Fed support for long-term yields alongside heavy Treasury issuance could steepen the curve and lift term premiums. For crypto traders, that combination can create a two-speed regime: supportive liquidity narratives on one hand, and sudden risk-off impulses if bond volatility spills into broader financial conditions. At press time, BTC traded at $69,151. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Ross Gerber, a renowned Tesla investor and Co-founder of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management, has identified the primary reason Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $70,000. The CEO has attributed the decline in the leading cryptocurrency and the broader market to the rise of scam tokens and shit coins in the space.  The Truth Behind Bitcoin’s Crash Below $70,000 The Bitcoin price dropped below $70,000 last week, sparking fear and uncertainty across the market. As the world’s largest cryptocurrency crashed, other major digital assets followed, fueling the broader market decline. In his X post on February 7, Gerber has shared insights into the factors driving Bitcoin’s recent downturn. Related Reading: 5 Red Months In A Row: What’s Going On With Bitcoin And The Crypto Market? According to him, the market is currently being undermined by a surge in scam tokens, citing meme-based cryptocurrencies such as the TRUMP coin. He explained that bad actors are increasingly entering the space, launching low-quality or fake tokens with little to no utility or real value while generating hype and FOMO. When investors buy these tokens, they often suffer losses from rug pulls, sudden crashes, or other fraudulent schemes.  Based on Gerber’s report, scam tokens have not only eroded crypto investors’ confidence and discouraged market participation, but have also diverted capital that could have flowed into legitimate cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. The Gerber Kawasaki CEO also highlighted that another key factor behind Bitcoin’s continued decline is the absence of new market catalysts.  He suggested that the market is largely driven by the same underlying factors, with only minor fluctuations from short-term moves by bag holders. In 2024, Bitcoin experienced sharp gains following the launch of Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Additional momentum came from catalysts like an increase in institutional demand. Recently, this demand has been declining. Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to record massive outflows, macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain, and Bitcoin continues to face strong sell-offs and volatility. Gerber also agrees that Bitcoin’s current downturn is exacerbated by selling pressure from leveraged traders, whose forced liquidations trigger a chain reaction that pushes prices lower.  Related Reading: Here’s Why The Bitcoin, Ethereum, And Dogecoin Prices Are Still Crashing Today Despite the negative trend, Gerber frames the situation as an opportunity for long-term investors. He noted that the decline in Bitcoin’s price allows seasoned players to buy the cryptocurrency at discounted “panic-level” prices, positioning these investors for potential gains once market conditions stabilize.  Analysts Predict Bitcoin Price Dump To $42,000 After Bitcoin’s brief decline below $70,000, analysts warn that further weakness may be imminent. Crypto expert Chiefy has forecasted that the Bitcoin price is preparing for another massive dump to $42,000 as early as next week.  With its price currently trading above $69,800, this would reflect a more than 40% crash. Chiefy notes that BTC’s slight recovery a few days ago was the final bull trap of this cycle and cautioned that things are about to get much worse. He urged investors and traders to prepare for a real bear market. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s slide to $60,000 on Feb. 6 triggered a sharp surge of exchange inflows that on-chain analyst Darkfost called a capitulation event, with short-term holders and small “shrimp” wallets leading the move. It wasn’t just retail panic either—flows jumped on venues that pros actually use. Darkfost said the selloff “reignited investor anxiety” after BTC revisited a price level “not…since October 2024,” alongside a broader drawdown “exceeding 50% from the last all time high.” It wasn’t only where BTC traded. It was how fast it got there. “The acceleration of this correction created a clear fear driven dynamic,” he said. People rushed coins onto exchanges. That only added fuel to the liquidation fire. “Unsurprisingly, Short Term Holders were the first to react emotionally.” Bitcoin Capitulation Event What stood out: short-term holders were piling into Binance deposits first—the usual ‘quick to flinch’ group. On Feb. 6 alone, Binance inflows attributed to STHs on a 7-day sum basis “exceeded 100,000 BTC,” surpassing activity seen during the April 2025 correction, he said. Across venues, the scale was larger still. From Feb. 4 to Feb. 6, nearly “241,000 BTC were sent to various exchanges,” Darkfost wrote. It’s tough to interpret that as anything but selling pressure. In his view, the resulting wave of deposits compounded volatility already elevated by forced liquidations and de-risking. Related Reading: Top Analyst Says ‘Paper Bitcoin’ Is Driving The Market, Not The 21 Million Supply Cap While Binance tends to capture large swaths of retail-driven flow, Darkfost flagged a concurrent surge on Coinbase Advanced, which he described as widely used by institutions, active traders, and professional desks. On Feb. 6, BTC inflows there hit roughly “27,000 BTC.” That’s a real spike. That’s the part that messes with the easy “retail panic” story. When you see it on both Binance and Coinbase, it’s probably not just one crowd freaking out. Darkfost put it bluntly: “nervousness…not limited to retail investors.” In a separate post focused on small holders, Darkfost argued that retail participation had been unusually muted for much of the cycle, then abruptly reappeared during the drop. He looked at Binance deposits from wallets under 1 BTC—the “shrimps,” usually the most jumpy. On Feb. 5, shrimp inflows to Binance exceeded “1,000 BTC in a single day,” versus a monthly average “closer to 365 BTC,” according to Darkfost. He noted the last comparable spike was in July 2025, but in a very different market regime, when Bitcoin was still pushing toward new highs. Same kind of flow, totally different mood. Darkfost also tied the move to cost-basis dynamics that have increasingly squeezed holders as the correction deepened. He said Bitcoin “has put all STH under pressure and is now beginning to test LTH,” adding that the first long-term holder cohorts—6 to 12 months and 12 to 18 months—were already underwater with cost bases of “$103,188” and “$85,849.” Related Reading: Kevin Warsh Will Trigger Bitcoin Regime Shift, Jeff Park Says He pointed to a reaction after price reached the realized price of the 18-month to 2-year cohort at “$63,654,” calling it “likely an area of interest for these holders.” He also noted that their rising cost basis suggests higher-cost coins have aged into that bracket. His take: this was an exhaustion flush, and it won’t reset overnight. “These capitulation moves have pushed BTC into an extreme oversold zone that the market will now need time to absorb and digest,” he wrote. After briefly slipping below $60,000, Bitcoin rebounded and was “trading again around $71,000.” Darkfost said that stabilization lined up with retail flows drifting back toward their average. That takes one obvious source of sell pressure off the table. The bigger question is whether this was the low—or just a breather in a nasty, high-volatility regime. At press time, BTC traded at $69,525. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Recent on-chain data shows that the Bitcoin price is currently at an important phase, raising suspicions as to whether the market is nearing a cyclical bottom.  Mayer Multiple Falls To 0.6 — What This Means In a recent Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, on-chain analyst Ruga Research pointed out that the Bitcoin price now has a 40% negative deviation from its 200-day moving average. This on-chain observation revolves around the Bitcoin Mayer Multiple.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Drifts Into A Deep Conviction Zone, Smart Money Stays Patient For context, the Mayer Multiple metric tracks how far a coin’s current price is trading above or below its long-term trend. This indicator is able to achieve this by dividing the price by its 200-day moving average.  When the metric shows a reading of 1, it typically means that the Bitcoin price is trading approximately at the 200-day MA. Meanwhile, readings above 1 reflect that the Bitcoin price is at a premium relative to its long-term trend, while readings below 1 suggest that the price is trading at a discount. Historically, the metric has several thresholds in tandem with market conditions. For example, when the metric reaches levels above 2.4, it often signals that the Bitcoin price is at an overbought zone (also known as the bubble territory). As explained earlier, 1 – 1.5 represents the normal bull-market range, while 0.8 – 1.0 is typically the discount zone (where accumulation often occurs). Notably, when the price falls to regions below 0.8, it signals that the Bitcoin price has been oversold, as a result of capitulation events. Ruga Research revealed that the metric is currently at 0.6, reflecting an approximate 40% deviation below Bitcoin’s long-term trend. Hence, it is apparent that the Bitcoin price stands at a statistical extreme. Historical data where the Mayer Multiple fell to similar levels also adds credibility to this level’s relevance. In December 2018, the metric dropped to the 0.5 – 0.6 range (near Bitcoin’s market bottom around $3,200) before the price witnessed a more than 540% growth. Similarly, the metric fell to 0.5 owing to the COVID crash, followed by a recovery and expansion of the Bitcoin price by 1,100% in another 12-month period. This scenario also repeated in November 2022, with the Mayer Multiple falling to the same region, after which the BTC price soared by over 170%.  However, Ruga Research mentioned, as a caveat, that the metric does not precisely spot where and when a bottom will form, but merely reveals what to expect in the long-term. It is also possible that the metric could record further downside moves or see some consolidation before going to the upside. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, Bitcoin is worth approximately $70,383, reflecting an over 2% jump in the past 24 hours.  Related Reading: Coinbase Premium Turns Positive Since Mid-January As Bitcoin Sees Price Relief Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin is navigating one of its deepest conviction zones yet, a phase that tests nerves more than it screams opportunity. While prices drift and fear dominates the market, smart money quietly accumulates, laying the groundwork for the next potential trend shift.  Testing Conviction: Bitcoin In One Of Its Deepest Bear Market Zones Over the past few weeks, volatility has intensified, causing Bitcoin’s price to fall sharply. Marcus Corvinus highlighted that Bitcoin is trading in one of the deepest bear market zones in history, an area that doesn’t shout buy now but instead tests conviction and patience. These are the zones where price can drift aimlessly, bleed, and frustrate traders for weeks or even months. It’s not a sign of weakness; rather, strong hands are quietly accumulating while fear dominates the market narrative. Related Reading: Bitcoin Hits Deep Demand As Liquidity Finally Sweeps The Lows These phases are always messy and uncomfortable. Sentiment is crushed, capitulation feels endless, and confidence is at its lowest. Retail traders often panic or step aside during these times, which is exactly why these opportunities are so often missed.  The real shift in trend rarely begins with hype or dramatic rallies. Instead, it starts with stabilization, absorption, and subtle recovery signals that are only visible to those who are patient. Quiet accumulation, a slowing of selling pressure, and small rebounds all hint that the market may be preparing for its next meaningful move. History doesn’t ring a bell at the bottom. It punishes doubt before it rewards belief. Marcus concludes that he is watching this zone very closely. While it won’t last forever, when it finally ends, most market participants will wish they had paid attention. The opportunity lies in recognizing the signals while others are blinded by fear and frustration. Resistance Holds At $71,000 — What It Means For Bulls Crypto analyst Crypto Candy noted that Bitcoin is moving largely as expected. As previously mentioned, a pullback from the $61,000–$58,000 zone toward the $70,000–$67,000 area was likely, and that scenario has unfolded precisely as predicted. The market reacted within this range, confirming the anticipated short-term price dynamics. Related Reading: Bitcoin Hits Deep Demand As Liquidity Finally Sweeps The Lows Crypto Candy also highlighted that although BTC touched $71,000, it was unable to close above that level on the daily timeframe. This reinforces the idea that until Bitcoin decisively reclaims this zone, short-term retracements remain the primary expectation. Looking ahead, Crypto Candy emphasized that a bullish scenario can only be considered in the short term if BTC closes above $71,000. Until that happens, the market may continue to test lower ranges, and retracements from the current zone are expected. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Crypto expert Tony Severino has opined that Bitcoin isn’t just showing signs of a yearly top but also that the BTC price may have hit a 16-year cyclical peak. This comes amid the flagship crypto’s recent crash to $60,000, which sparked fears of a bear market. Bitcoin May Be Showing Signs Of A Peak Amid BTC Price Crash To $60,000 In an X post, Severino alluded to the yearly Bitcoin chart, which he said looks like a 16-year cyclical peak rather than just a yearly top. The expert also outlined several reasons this appears to be a major cyclical top for the BTC price. First, he noted that the white candlesticks have been decreasing in size over time, while black candlesticks engulf more white candles with each appearance.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Just Hit A 15-Year Trendline After The Crash, What This Means Furthermore, Severino highlighted the Doji at the top of a rising wedge pattern while the Evening Star is in progress, which is a bearish reversal signal for the BTC price. Meanwhile, the Fischer Transform is crossing bearish with divergence, and the Stochastic is crossing bearish after being rejected from 80. He added that Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is falling back below 70 after making it above this level on the highest timeframe chart.  His analysis comes as the BTC price continues to decline, suggesting the crypto market may be in a bear market after topping last October. Bitcoin dropped to as low as $60,000 earlier this week, suffering its largest daily decline since the FTX collapse. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has also opined that Bitcoin is in a bear market, predicting that it could still drop to as low as $42,000 before it sees a bottom.  Reason For The Recent BTC Crash BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has commented on the reason for this recent Bitcoin crash, suggesting that it was due to external factors rather than part of an ongoing bear market. In an X post, he stated that the BTC price dump was probably due to a dealer hedging off the back of BlackRock’s BTC ETF structured products. Notably, BlackRock’s IBIT saw a record trading volume of $10 billion on the day of this crash to $60,000.  Related Reading: Here’s What To Expect If The Bitcoin Price Maintains Support Above $74,400 Hayes’ comment comes on the back of Bitcoin’s rebound above $70,000, with the flagship crypto recording one of its largest ever daily gains yesterday following the crash to $60,000. Galaxy Digital’s Head of Research, Alex Thorn, suggested that the drop to $60,000 may mark the bottom for the BTC price. This came as he noted that the 200-week MA, which is around $60,000, has historically been a strong entry point for long-term investors.  At the time of writing, the BTC price is trading at around $70,000, up over 6% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

A new theory circulating in the crypto market is challenging how investors interpret Bitcoin’s recent price decline. In a post shared on X (formerly Twitter), market analyst Crypto Rover argued that Bitcoin is no longer trading as a simple supply-and-demand asset, and that this structural shift is a major reason behind the current sell-off. A ‘Parallel Financial Layer’ Rover’s central claim is that although Bitcoin’s on-chain supply cap of 21 million coins has not changed, the way Bitcoin is traded in modern financial markets has effectively diluted its scarcity.  According to him, focusing only on spot buying and selling misses what is really driving price action today. BTC, he says, no longer moves primarily based on physical ownership of coins, but on activity in massive derivatives markets that now dominate price discovery. Related Reading: What Went Wrong With Crypto? A Postmortem As the analyst highlighted, in Bitcoin’s early years, its valuation rested on two fundamental principles: a strictly fixed supply of 21 million coins and the impossibility of duplicating that supply.  These features made Bitcoin uniquely scarce, with prices largely determined by real buyers and sellers exchanging coins in the spot market. However, over time, Rover asserts that a “parallel financial layer” developed on top of the blockchain itself. This financial layer includes cash‑settled futures, perpetual swaps, options contracts, prime brokerage lending, wrapped Bitcoin products such as WBTC, and total return swaps.  None of these instruments create new Bitcoin on the blockchain, but they do create synthetic exposure to Bitcoin’s price. According to Rover, this synthetic exposure now plays a central role in determining how Bitcoin trades. As derivatives trading volumes grew and eventually surpassed spot market activity, Rover argues that Bitcoin’s price stopped responding mainly to on‑chain coin movement.  Instead, prices increasingly reflect leverage, trader positioning, margin stress, and liquidation dynamics. In practical terms, this means Bitcoin can move sharply even when there is little actual buying or selling of real coins. Why Bitcoin Moves Without Spot Selling Rover also highlights the concept of synthetic supply, explaining that a single Bitcoin can now be used simultaneously across multiple financial products.  One coin may back an exchange-traded fund (ETF) share while also supporting a futures contract, a perpetual swap hedge, options exposure, a broker loan, or a structured investment product.  While this does not increase Bitcoin’s actual supply, it dramatically increases the amount of tradable exposure linked to that same coin. When this synthetic exposure grows large compared with the real supply of Bitcoin, the market’s perception of scarcity weakens.  This phenomenon, often described as synthetic float expansion, changes how prices behave. Rallies are more easily shorted using derivatives, leverage builds rapidly, liquidations become more frequent, and volatility increases.  According to Rover, this structural shift makes price movements feel disconnected from on‑chain fundamentals. Yet, the analyst notes that the leading cryptocurrency is not unique in this regard.  Related Reading: Why The Market Cap Argument For XRP Price Not Reaching $10,000 Is ‘Flawed’ Similar transitions occurred in markets such as gold, silver, oil, and major equity indices. In each case, once derivatives markets overtook physical trading, price discovery moved away from supply alone and became increasingly influenced by financial positioning. This framework also helps explain why Bitcoin sometimes declines even in the absence of heavy spot selling. Price pressure can come from forced liquidations of leveraged long positions, aggressive futures shorting, options hedging activity, or ETF arbitrage trades.  Importantly, Rover emphasizes that Bitcoin’s hard cap has not changed at the protocol level. The 21 million limit remains intact on the blockchain.  What has changed, he argues, is the financial structure surrounding Bitcoin. He concluded his analysis by asserting that in today’s markets, “paper Bitcoin” has become more influential than physical ownership, and that dominance is playing a key role in the market’s recent instability. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin’s roughly 50% drawdown has less to do with cycle déjà vu than a deeper break in the market’s old playbook, according to Jeff Park, partner and CIO at ProCap Financial, who argues a prospective Kevin Warsh-led Federal Reserve could catalyze a regime shift in how Bitcoin trades. In an conversation with Anthony Pompliano, Park said he believes Bitcoin has been in a bear market “for quite a bit,” and warned that the familiar reflexive framework, easier policy, more liquidity, higher BTC, has stopped doing the explanatory work it once did. What Kevin Warsh Means For Bitcoin Park’s starting point was a blunt claim: the assumed linkage between Bitcoin and global liquidity has “been broken for quite some time.” He pointed to what he described as steadily rising global liquidity through 2025, citing Michael Howell’s tracking and estimating the level at roughly $170 trillion, alongside broad-based strength in other asset classes. “Asset prices have all gone up,” Park said, referencing a “frenzied rally” in metals and corporate credit spreads near all-time lows, before adding: “there actually is a lot of reasons to think that Bitcoin should have also already participated, but it didn’t.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash On Feb. 5 Was Historic: The Numbers Behind The Selloff That divergence, he argued, is why investors should stop leaning on backward-looking heuristics that have become psychological crutches. In his telling, crypto markets have repeatedly assumed history would re-run—altcoin rallies after bitcoin rallies, a durable four-year cycle, and the idea that QE or lower rates reliably lift BTC. “It’s worth remembering that there’s things that are constantly changing about the world where everything looks a little bit different than the way you had modeled it before,” he said. From there, Park reframed the debate around his “negative rho” versus “positive rho” Bitcoin framework. The former is the risk-asset version most investors recognize: rates down, risk up, Bitcoin up. The latter is the endgame: Bitcoin rising as rates rise, effectively challenging the notion of a stable “risk-free” rate by calling into question the credibility of the monetary order itself. “This is the mythical elusive perfect holy grail of what Bitcoin is meant to be,” Park said of positive-rho Bitcoin. “What it’s undermining is the risk-free rate itself. In that world, what we’re saying is actually because the risk-free rate is not the risk-free rate. Because the dollar hegemony is not the dollar hegemony and we are no longer able to price the yield curve in the ways we’ve known that means we need something different… and bitcoin is that hedge.” Park suggested the market may be inching toward that worldview as US policymaking becomes more explicitly about system repair, not incremental tweaks. He described the current US administration as attempting to “wrestle control of the economy away from the Federal Reserve” via deregulation, tax cuts, tariffs, and efforts to weaken the dollar, leaving the Fed “on their back foot” amid shifting “tectonic plates” across policy channels. Absolutely enjoyed recording this, even though we of course wish prices were higher. For those who have been listening to our show (monthly going forward), the fact that we are in a bear market won’t come as a big surprise. Still, Bitcoin can survive all this! Listen below ???? https://t.co/JSrKOw5QLY — Jeff Park (@dgt10011) February 5, 2026 That’s where Park placed Warsh, a former Fed governor and, in Park’s telling, a rare combination of institutional fluency and technological conviction, as potentially pivotal. Park recounted an interaction from 2021 or 2022 in which Warsh expressed enthusiasm for Bitcoin while criticizing “phonies” who treat tech as “magic.” Warsh, Park said, “truly believed deep in his heart that this isn’t magic… that it actually is going to solve a lot of problems and bring efficiencies and Bitcoin is a core part of that cultural fabric.” Related Reading: PlanB Lays Out Four Bitcoin Bear-Market Scenarios Crucially, Park emphasized Warsh is not an anti-institution wrecking ball. Instead, he portrayed Warsh as someone who understands why the Fed’s legitimacy has been challenged and how it might be rebuilt. One line, Park said, has “always stuck” with him: “inflation is a choice.” Park contrasted that with Fed communication that, in his view, sometimes treats inflation as something that merely happens due to tariffs or war, rather than an outcome of policy tools and mandates. For Park, a Warsh appointment matters less because it guarantees easier policy and more because it could accelerate a rethink of Fed–Treasury coordination. He said he is “optimistic about the possibility of a new Fed Treasury accord that Bessant and Warsh can rewrite,” arguing the heart of the issue is the Triffin dilemma and the tension between the dollar’s external reserve role and internal saver role. “It’s not that we need fed independence,” Park said. “We actually need Fed interdependence with the Treasury.” The irony, in Park’s framing, is that “more accommodative policies may in fact actually not be the catalyst” for Bitcoin’s next bull phase. Instead, he argued Bitcoin’s bid ultimately strengthens when the world feels less like “peacetime” and more like “wartime”, when industrial, military, and fiscal policy dominate, centralization pressures rise, and capital controls become more plausible. The people who “need Bitcoin,” he said, are not US investors with endless alternatives, but those facing constraint and censorship. If Park is right, Warsh isn’t bullish for Bitcoin because he’ll deliver a familiar liquidity wave. He’s bullish because a Warsh-era Fed, paired with a Treasury aligned on system-level reform, could push markets toward the “positive rho” regime, where Bitcoin’s value proposition is less about riding stimulus and more about challenging the architecture that made stimulus necessary in the first place. At press time, BTC traded at $66,396. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) has officially entered a new bear market after suffering a steep 50% decline from its all‑time high. The leading crypto fell as low as $60,000, marking its weakest level since October 2024 and intensifying debate over how much further prices could slide before the next long‑term bottom is reached. As markets search for direction, crypto market expert NoLimit has shared a detailed framework outlining when and where he believes Bitcoin could ultimately bottom in this cycle.  Rather than focusing solely on price targets, NoLimit argues that time plays an equally important role in identifying major turning points in Bitcoin’s market cycles. Potential Bitcoin Low In Oct–Nov  According to his analysis, past Bitcoin bear markets show a relatively consistent pattern when measured from all‑time highs to cycle lows. Following the first Halving cycle in 2012, Bitcoin reached its bottom after 406 days.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Exposes Colossal Corporate Losses — Here’s Who’s Most Impacted The second Halving cycle in 2016 saw a bottom after 363 days, while the third cycle following the 2020 Halving bottomed after 376 days. The current cycle, following the 2024 Halving, has not yet completed this process. Based on these historical timeframes, NoLimit believes there is a high statistical likelihood that Bitcoin’s next major capitulation point will occur between October and November 2026.  What NUPL Data Suggests In his analysis, NoLimit also highlighted an institutional‑grade on‑chain indicator known as Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, or NUPL. Historically, when NUPL enters what is referred to as the “blue zone,” Bitcoin has reached generational lows.  Related Reading: Analyst Who Predicted XRP’s 600% Rally Forecasts The Bottom And A Target Of $10 This signal successfully identified the bottom during the 2018 bear market, the COVID‑19 crash, and the 2022 market low. According to NoLimit, Bitcoin has not yet entered this zone in the current cycle and remains some distance away from it. Taking all factors into account, NoLimit said he would not be surprised to see Bitcoin trading between $45,000 and $50,000 by the end of 2026. He described that range as his ultimate bottom target. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is on course to see five red months in a row, as it is currently down over 16% to start this month after closing the last four consecutive months in the red. The Bitcoin decline has also impacted the crypto market, which has lost a significant portion of its market value during this period.  Bitcoin Facing Five Red Months As Crypto Market Struggles Cryptorank data show that Bitcoin is now facing its fifth consecutive red month, down 16% this month after closing October, November, December, and January in the red. The last time this happened to BTC was in 2018, when it entered a bear market after reaching record highs in 2017. The crypto market is also facing downside pressure, having lost nearly half of its market value since October.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Just Hit A 15-Year Trendline After The Crash, What This Means Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has stated that October 2025 marked the top for Bitcoin and the crypto market and that they are now in a bear market. He noted that bear markets don’t last and that better times will come. He further opined that October 2026 is a good time for a market low, though he added that he is open to the bottom occurring sooner if the meltdown accelerates.  Bitcoin crashed over 13% yesterday, dropping to as low as $60,000 as the crypto market sell-off accelerated. A number of factors are believed to have contributed to this bearish price action, including the Fed’s hawkish pivot following last week’s FOMC meeting, where they decided to hold rates steady. Furthermore, Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, and the markets reacted negatively to the nomination.  Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to face significant selling pressure from the BTC ETFs, which have recorded three consecutive months of net outflows. SoSoValue data show these funds are on course to record a fourth straight month of net outflows, with $690 million in net outflows this month.  BTC Could Still Drop To $42,000 Veteran trader Peter Brandt predicted that a Bitcoin drop to $42,000 was on the cards, but that it is unlikely to go much lower. This came as he stated that the bulls would not need to suffer too “far south of $42,000” if BTC digs into the Banana peel as deeply as in past bear market cycles. He added that it is a “hop, skip, and jump” from that level. The broader crypto market is also expected to find a bottom when BTC bottoms.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Wave 3 Crash: What’s Next As Price Makes A Rebound? In an earlier X post, Brandt stated that Bitcoin’s decline has all “the fingerprints of campaign selling, not retail liquidation” and that it is always unknown when such a pattern ends. His comment came just before the BTC decline below $63,000, which he highlighted as the next target for the leading crypto.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $65,800, down over 6% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

The Bitcoin price is currently trading under immense bearish pressure, and the downtrend might not yet be over. Bitcoin has now broken below $70,000 and has extended its decline below $65,000. This price action is part of an extended corrective phase that began after Bitcoin topped out at $126,000 in October 2025, and crypto participants have different outlooks as to when the correction will reach a bottom.  Amid the uncertainty, an outlook from a crypto analyst known as Sherlock is gaining traction on X, as it points to historical market bottoms that suggest Bitcoin may still be headed significantly lower. Past Drawdowns Show A Clear Pattern Across Bitcoin Cycles Sherlock’s analysis focuses on how deep Bitcoin has fallen during past bear markets and how those declines have changed as the asset has matured over the years. According to the data he highlighted, Bitcoin’s 2011 cycle saw a drawdown of about 93% from peak to trough. This is the highest correction for the Bitcoin price to date. That figure reduced to about 86% in 2015, then to 84% in 2018, and further to around 77% during the 2022 bear market.  Related Reading: One Month In And 10% Of Dogecoin Millionaires Have Already Disappeared In 2026 – Details The consistent takeaway from these cycles is that each successive drawdown has been smaller than the last. This isn’t surprising, as Bitcoin and the entire crypto market have been growing in size, liquidity, and participation over time. Using that trend as a guide, the next major bottom correction should continue this progression. The projection is that the correction should drop from 77% in the 2022 bear market to 70% in the current price action. If the drawdown compresses to about 70% in the current cycle, measured from the $126,000 all-time high, then the bottom would land around the $38,000 region. Dismissing Higher Bottom Targets Like $69,000 And $50,000 The projection by Sherlock received a lot of views and comments on X, with some market participants noting that reflexivity and increased institutional involvement should reduce downside risk this time around. One notable response suggested that when comparing prior bottom-to-top moves against top-to-bottom declines, Bitcoin’s next drawdown should be closer to 55% or 60%, instead of 70%. Sherlock pushed back on that view by noting how reflexivity can amplify downside moves just as easily as it causes rallies. “Good luck buying your bottom at $69,000, $60,000 and $50,000,” he said. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Could Quickly Revisit $81,000 Again After The Crash For the time being, Bitcoin is caught between aggressive sell-offs and growing concern that the larger corrective phase is not complete. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $64,850, having rebounded from an intraday low of $60,255, according to data from CoinGecko.  The recent price action means Bitcoin is back to trading at its lowest levels since October 2024. If Bitcoin were to revisit the $38,000 area, it would represent a return to price levels last seen during the early stages of the bull market. The last time Bitcoin traded around $38,000 was in October 2023. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin printed one of the largest ever daily candles to the downside on Thursday, sliding more than 15%, roughly $10,800, in a move that rippled through derivatives, spot venues, and the US Bitcoin ETF complex. The scale of the drop is what made it stand out. Not just the percentage drawdown, but the mix of stress signals hitting at once: implied volatility spiking, volumes exploding, and momentum gauges collapsing into levels typically associated with forced selling rather than discretionary risk reduction. Bitcoin Crash Sparks Capitulation Signals Real Vision’s Jamie Coutts framed the session as a “capitulation watch,” pointing to a cluster of metrics rarely seen together. He highlighted Bitcoin implied volatility via BVIV at 88.55, “closing in on the FTX-collapse peak of 105,” and noted Coinbase logged its eighth-largest trading day ever by USD value, with $3.34 billion changing hands—roughly 54,000 BTC at ~$62,000. Related Reading: PlanB Lays Out Four Bitcoin Bear-Market Scenarios Coutts also underscored how extreme the momentum reset looked on daily charts, citing a daily RSI of 15.64, “at or below March 2020 COVID crash lows.” He added: “Margin calls are firing. Forced liquidations are likely still working through the system. This has the signature of a capitulation event, but capitulation can be a process, not a single candle (unless we get a massive wick!). These conditions can persist for weeks or even months before a durable low forms.” Macro trader Alex Krüger stopped short of a price target for the lows, but argued the market was registering the kind of positioning and pricing distortions that tend to cluster around turning points in time. “Friends I really do not know where the bitcoin bottom is but I can recognize extreme conditions that you only see close to bottoms in time, such as extreme negative funding, options skew at levels only seen once before since 2022 (FTX day), and volumes & liquidations at extraordinary levels,” he wrote. “You also have some monster shorts that opened between 64k and 60k, material for a short squeeze sending price to 68k, and if we see so then everyone will start talking about the bottom.” Krüger’s caveat was just as direct: “In the meantime of course equities need to hold. And having a bottom in does not mean that you will see a major trend from here.” Galaxy’s Alex Thorn described the tape as historically stretched on RSI measures, saying bitcoin was “the most oversold today than any day since 3AC blew up in June 2022 (30d RSI),” and calling it “basically in the top 3 oversold events ever,” alongside November 2018 and June 2022. The US spot Bitcoin ETF market didn’t cushion the move, it amplified the day’s activity. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Balchunas said BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) “just crushed its daily volume record with $10b worth of shares traded” as the fund’s price fell 13%, its second-worst daily drop since launch. Head of Research for Anchorage Digital David Lawant added that IBIT alone trading above $10 billion was the highest since launch, beating prior records by 69% in shares and 27% in USD volume. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Exposes Colossal Corporate Losses — Here’s Who’s Most Impacted Positioning data hinted at a complex, two-sided ETF ecosystem. Head of Research at K33 Research Vetle Lunde noted net equivalent short exposure in short BTC ETFs was nearing the November 2022 peak at 7,745 BTC, while 2x leveraged long BTC ETFs—products that didn’t exist then—currently hold 39,590 BTC, “at levels not seen since Mar 24.” Volatility remained the throughline. ProCap CIO Jeff Park said: “Bitcoin implied vol is now at 75%. This is the highest level since the ETF launch in 2024. It is also finally higher than gold volatility. Know it’s a lot of pain right now, but this is all part of the process required for Bitcoin to make new highs. The melt up will be fast.” At press time, BTC rebounded from $60,000 to roughly $64,900, a gain of about 9% from the session low. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The latest downturn in Bitcoin (BTC) has begun to weigh heavily on publicly listed companies that built their balance sheets around the market’s leading cryptocurrency. On Thursday, Bitcoin hovered near the $65,000 level, continuing the sharp decline that began last October. This has impacted equity markets, causing the shares of crypto-exposed firms to decline significantly. Bitcoin Slide Pressures Digital Asset Treasury Firms According to a Reuters report, the renewed volatility in digital assets is dragging down the stock prices of companies that hold Bitcoin and other tokens, raising concerns that the stress could spread more broadly across the sector.  The number of publicly traded firms investing in cryptocurrencies surged last year, as many executives bet that digital assets would continue to appreciate over the long-term.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Crashes Below $67,000 As Stifel Warns Of Potential Drop To $38,000 However, the backdrop has shifted. Investor anxiety over stretched valuations in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, combined with uncertainty surrounding the future path of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts, has weighed on risk assets more broadly.  As a result, Bitcoin has slid to its lowest level since October 2024, putting pressure on companies whose business models rely on holding digital assets. Many of these digital asset treasury firms saw their shares wobble sharply on Thursday. Seven Major Companies Suffer  Strategy (previously MicroStrategy), the largest corporate BTC holder with over 700,000 coins, has been among the hardest hit. Its shares have fallen from around $457 in July to as low as $106 on Thursday.  In December, the company cut its 2025 earnings outlook, pointing to weakness in Bitcoin prices, and announced plans to establish a reserve to help support dividend payments.  The firm led by Michael Saylor said it now expects its full‑year results to range anywhere from a $6.3 billion profit to a $5.5 billion loss, a sharp downgrade from its earlier forecast of a $24 billion net profit. Related Reading: Ripple Throws Weight Behind Hyperliquid, Fueling HYPE’s Rally Toward Crucial Levels Other Bitcoin‑focused firms also felt the impact. Shares of the UK‑based Smarter Web Company fell nearly 18% on Thursday. Rival Bitcoin buyers Nakamoto Inc and Japan’s Metaplanet were also under pressure, dropping almost 9% and more than 7%, respectively. However, the sell-off pressure has not been limited to companies holding only BTC. On Thursday, crypto-related firms that stockpiled other digital tokens also traded lower amid the correction affecting broader digital asset prices.  Alt5 Sigma, which announced last year that it would accumulate the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial (WLFI) token, saw its shares drop 8.4%. Similarly, SharpLink Gaming, which holds Ethereum (ETH), declined about 8%, while Forward Industries, a holder of Solana (SOL), slid nearly 6%. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Crypto analyst Coinvo has revealed that the Bitcoin price has just hit a 15-year trendline following its latest crash to around $70,000. He declared this a buying opportunity, noting that the trendline has historically held on four prior occasions in past cycles.  Bitcoin Price Hits 15-Year Trendline Against Gold In an X post, Coinvo stated that the Bitcoin price has hit the same RSI trendline on its gold chart as in 2011, 2015, 2019, and 2022. He further noted that this development has historically created a buying opportunity, as BTC has consistently outperformed gold when this happens. He urged market participants not to miss this as it is the “biggest opportunity” they have ever had.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Set To Test Resistance At $80,600 After Bottoming At $74,000 His statement comes as the Bitcoin price crashed to a new yearly low at around $70,000, with the leading crypto asset now down over 19% year-to-date (YTD). Based on Coinvo’s analysis, this may mark the bottom for BTC despite concerns that the crypto market may be entering a deep bear market. In another X post, the analyst stated that the Bitcoin price is set to repeat the entire 2023 rally. He noted that the same pattern as in 2023 is playing out now, with BTC hitting the 200-day EMA, which marked a bear-market bottom back then by flipping into support. Coinvo added that most people are too focused on the bearish noise, but urged market participants not to let it obscure the truth, as Bitcoin is going higher.  However, crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has suggested that the Bitcoin price could still drop lower, having crashed below its April 2025 low. He noted that in the previous cycles, when BTC fell below the 100-week SMA, it crashed straight to the 200-week SMA before any relief bounce occurred.  BTC Could Still Crash To As Low As $63,000 Veteran trader Peter Brandt shared an accompanying chart showing that the Bitcoin price could still drop to as low as $63,000. This came as he noted that the nature of BTC’s decline, with eight consecutive days of lower lows and highs, indicates campaign selling rather than retail liquidation.  He noted that he has observed this pattern several times and that it is difficult to determine when it ends. Crypto analyst PlanB highlighted potential bear-market scenarios for BTC. He stated that an 80% drawdown from the current all-time high (ATH) could put the Bitcoin price at $25,000. Furthermore, a drop to the 200-week MA and current realized price could mean a crash to between $50,000 and $60,000. Meanwhile, a crash to the previous cycle’s ATH could mean that $70,000 is the bottom.  Related Reading: Here’s What To Expect If The Bitcoin Price Maintains Support Above $74,400 At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $70,700, down over 7% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

The Bitcoin price has gone through an intense bout of volatility over the past few days, with a violent sell-off that has dragged its price into the $70,000 range. The move wiped out short-term bullish positioning and forced the price below several intraday support levels. Although there are risks of further downside, Bitcoin is now looking to stabilize and push to reclaim important reference levels. A technical outlook suggests that a path back to the $81,000 region could open up faster than expected if certain conditions are met. Sweep Of The Yearly Low One of the most important developments on the chart is the sweep of the last yearly candle low around $74,456. That move flushed liquidity resting below prior lows and was a clear downside grab that had been waiting for months.  Related Reading: One Month In And 10% Of Dogecoin Millionaires Have Already Disappeared In 2026 – Details In terms of a market-structure perspective, this type of sweep is a reset point that clears weak hands and allows price to build a more stable base. The bounce that followed pushed Bitcoin back to $77,000, a move that shows buyers were willing to defend the area after the liquidation event. This is now transitioning into a decision zone, which is where the next directional move becomes more important. As noted by crypto analyst Minga on the social media platform X, Bitcoin went back to testing the weekly open just below $77,000. Holding above it would mean that the recovery has real follow-through, which in turn would allow the price to revisit the monthly open at $78,700. The chart shared by the analyst also shows multiple equal highs stacked above that region, right within the previous range low. Together, these elements form a pocket of unfinished business. If Bitcoin reclaims and sustains acceptance above the weekly open, the probability of a push through the monthly open increases, with that momentum then potentially carrying price into the $80,000s, where prior range liquidity is around $81,000. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @Mingarithm on X Related Reading: Where’s XRP Price Headed As Exchange Reserves Plunge To 1.7 Billion? Downside Scenario And The Relief Bounce Zone Below There is a valid alternate path if Bitcoin’s advances continue to reject at the weekly open, which is looking like the case in the current price action. In that case, there is a deeper downside target between $70,800 and $69,100. This area stands out as a high-confluence zone that aligns with a higher-timeframe order block, the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement, and the last cycle’s all-time high in 2021.  At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $70,930, down by 7.2% in the past 24 hours and is now at risk of losing $70,000. If price holds above this zone after the current test, then Bitcoin is likely to transition into a range before attempting continuation and breaking above $81,000. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin has finally swept the sell-side liquidity that had been building beneath the market, driving price into a deep demand zone where stronger buyers are expected to step in. With the downside move now largely complete, attention shifts to whether this level can spark a meaningful reaction or mark the start of a broader reset. Why The 100-Week SMA Remains A Proven Bitcoin Accumulation Zone Crypto analyst Brett emphasized that accumulating Bitcoin below the 100-week Simple Moving Average has repeatedly proven to be one of the most reliable long-term investment strategies. According to the expert, this zone has historically marked periods of maximum pessimism, where risk-to-reward strongly favors patient buyers rather than short-term traders. Related Reading: Bitcoin Drop Below $80,000 May Not Be The Final Capitulation Event, Checkonchain Says Brett explained that his personal approach deliberately avoids trying to pinpoint the exact market bottom. Instead, he focuses on steady accumulation by placing buy orders across a wide range between $55,000 and $75,000, supported by daily recurring purchases. For investors with a more conservative mindset, Brett pointed out that waiting for confirmation can be just as effective. Looking at past cycles, Brett noted that buying after Bitcoin moves back above the 100-week SMA has consistently delivered strong returns. He stressed that BTC has never fallen below the previous cycle’s 100-week SMA, reinforcing its importance as a structural support level. Those who followed this strategy in prior market cycles are now sitting on significant long-term profits. Breakdown Confirmed As Key Lows Failed To Hold According to the latest BTC Heatmap update by Columbus, the market has followed the exact trajectory previously mapped out. Columbus notes that the inability of the local lows to hold, combined with weak reactions on the tape, signaled that the liquidity stacked below would act as a magnet. Consequently, the continuation leg played out as an inevitable result of this structural weakness. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? CMT Reveals What Investors Need To See Now In his analysis of the current price action, Columbus highlights that Bitcoin is now trading directly within a cluster of heavier bids located around the low-$70,000 region. The analyst identifies this specific zone as the first area where a “real reaction” is likely to occur, as it represents a significant concentration of buy-side interest. For Columbus, the sweep into these deeper pockets was the necessary clearing event to reach this primary demand zone. Columbus concludes that since the anticipated downside has fully played out, the focus now shifts entirely to the immediate response from buyers. With the liquidity targets hit and the price sitting on heavy support, Columbus is now closely watching for a definitive reaction to determine if this level will provide the foundation for the next leg of the trend. Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview.com