US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has signalled that the long-debated overhaul of banks’ supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) is imminent—a policy pivot that could reverberate through Bitcoin markets—telling television interviewers that regulators are “very close to moving” on the rule and that the adjustment could compress Treasury yields by “tens of basis points.” Rocket Fuel For Bitcoin Although the proposal must still clear the Federal Reserve, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the FDIC, the direction of travel is clear: exempting, or partially exempting, US Treasuries from the SLR will let large banks recycle balance-sheet capacity into fresh purchases of government debt. The SLR, introduced after the 2008–2009 crisis, forces even risk-free assets such as Treasuries to carry a capital charge; a global systemically important bank must fund five cents of equity for every dollar of total assets, including central-bank reserves. Bessent’s plan would lift that burden for sovereign bonds, a step the industry has lobbied for since the temporary pandemic waiver expired in March 2021. Kevin Fromer, chief executive of the Financial Services Forum, calls the current leverage-based stack “outdated and at odds with financial stability and economic growth,” describing relief as necessary “to better serve US taxpayers, capital markets, consumers, businesses, and the economy.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Enters A Massive Week: Key Events To Watch While officials frame the move as a micro-prudential calibration, the macro-liquidity impulse is substantial. Market commentator Furkan Yildirim tells his 103,000 subscribers that US banks collectively hold about $5 trillion in Treasuries; eliminating the five-percent capital haircut would liberate roughly $250 billion of tier-one capital—fifty times the Federal Reserve’s current monthly quantitative-tightening pace of $5 billion. “This is a liquidity injection by regulatory pen stroke,” he says, adding that the step “lowers yields without the Fed printing money,” a mix that historically pushes investors further out the risk curve. The market is already trading on that expectation. Benchmark ten-year yields slid below 3.95 percent after Bessent’s remarks and after President Trump deferred a threatened 50 percent tariff on EU goods until 9 July. Yildirim argues that “every basis-point drop in the ten-year is basically a marketing campaign for Bitcoin,” because “liquidity doesn’t disappear—it just looks for a new home.” He stresses that the Treasury’s willingness to change bank-capital rules, rather than rely on the central bank, “tells you how cornered policymakers feel by deficits, debt service and political optics.” Related Reading: Bitcoin SLRV Ribbons Turn Green—What Happens Next? Not everyone is convinced the rule change will work as intended. Critics such as Peter Boockvar of Bleakley Advisory note that banks’ appetite for duration risk has not fully recovered since the 2023 regional-bank failures; if dealers fail to absorb the incremental Treasury supply, the Federal Reserve could be forced back into the market. The Bank Policy Institute, while welcoming SLR relief, argues that it must be paired with a broader rethink of post-crisis overlays such as the GSIB surcharge and the stress-test regime to unlock balance-sheet capacity on a lasting basis. Bitcoin, however, responds reflexively to dollar-liquidity metrics. Lower Treasury yields diminish the allure of money-market funds paying north of five percent, releasing capital that has been parked in cash-equivalent vehicles since 2022. On-chain data highlighted by Yildirim show over-the-counter (OTC) desk inventories sliding to 115,000 BTC, evidence that large buyers are sourcing coins directly; when that stock is depleted, desks must restock from public exchanges, a dynamic that tightens float and historically amplifies upside moves. Ultimately the SLR reprieve is no panacea for America’s fiscal arithmetic, but it removes a near-term balance-sheet choke point and lowers the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. As Yildirim puts it, “A deregulation that stabilises sovereign funding while nudging investors into risk assets is, almost by definition, a tailwind for Bitcoin.” In that sense the rule change functions like shadow quantitative easing, arriving at a moment when the Federal Reserve is hamstrung by sticky inflation and political constraints—one more structural catalyst for Bitcoin. At press time, BTC traded at $108,790. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin hovers between $107,000 and $111,000, a deceptively narrow range that masks an options market bristling with tension. In a note to clients released today, Singapore-based QCP Capital argues that the lull is anything but benign. “Bitcoin’s reaction to last Friday’s macro developments was relatively restrained, even as equities rallied sharply,” the desk writes, pointing to “steady” institutional inflows into spot-BTC ETFs as the anchor keeping spot prices in check. Bitcoin Calm Before The Storm? The stability, however, has not bled into derivatives: “Front-end implied volatility held firm, with BTC consolidating in a tight range,” QCP observes, adding that traders are actively paying up for one- and two-week downside protection ahead of the Bitcoin Conference that opens in Las Vegas later today. Related Reading: Bitcoin Enters A Massive Week: Key Events To Watch QCP frames the three-day gathering—whose speaker roster includes US Vice President JD Vance, Strategy chairman Michael Saylor, and Donald Trump’s sons Eric and Donald Jr.—as the key near-term volatility catalyst. “The sustained elevation in near-term vols suggests that traders are positioning around headline risk,” the firm writes. Memories of last year’s Nashville conference linger: a keynote by US President Trump sent one-day implied volatility above 90 before collapsing, with spot BTC tumbling nearly 30 percent in forty-eight hours. “That episode continues to shape market memory,” QCP warns, even as it assigns a low probability to a repeat. The positioning data argue for caution all the same. Perpetual futures open interest has retreated in the past twenty-four hours, and funding rates have slid back toward neutral levels—signs, QCP says, of “a defensive tilt.” Retail voices that typically embrace leverage are dialing back risk as well. Popular trader James Wynn has publicly trimmed longs, echoing an uptick in demand for short-dated puts that QCP describes as “persistent.” ETF flows remain the counterweight to that defensiveness. US spot-Bitcoin products absorbed 7,869 BTC last Friday, the largest single-day haul since late April, according to Glassnode data. For the week ending 23 May, net inflows reached $2.75 billion, the second-strongest weekly print of the year. Those allocations, QCP argues, “offer underlying support,” but are not large enough to overwhelm options-driven short-term swings should headlines jolt sentiment. Rumors—since denied—that Trump Media is exploring a $3 billion crypto raise exemplify the hair-trigger backdrop. “Headline sensitivity is elevated,” QCP writes. In its base case, Bitcoin holds its current band until the Las Vegas speeches conclude, after which “front-end vols are expected to compress as risk premia fade.” Higher Until Early June? Not everyone agrees that the compression will come quickly. The pseudonymous macro-cycle analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero), whose FOMC-timing model correctly flagged Bitcoin’s March low and February high, remains emphatically long. “This is not a ‘top in June’ call,” he posts on X. “This is a call that we go higher from here, and I remain bullish. Big difference.” Related Reading: Massive Whale Activity Detected on Binance as Bitcoin Tests New Highs He argues that Bitcoin historically grinds upward until roughly ten calendar days before an FOMC meeting; the next one lands on 18 June. “Price likely keeps going higher until the 8th–18th of June,” he writes, adding that cyclical weekly timing “lines up” and that he is “looking for longs upon short-time-frame pullbacks.” Astronomer’s conviction rests on a broader twenty-four-week cycle that he dates from the October 2024 breakout. “We are only week six,” he notes, implying that the upside phase is barely half-way through. He concedes that “alts always lag behind BTC,” but argues that pressing the momentum trade now is critical: “Going with momentum as long as possible gets you in the right mindset before trying to short too early.” For the moment, spot prices stay eerily placid even as the options market prices a storm. Whether that storm strikes upward or downward may depend on a sound bite delivered from a Las Vegas stage or on a policy nuance telegraphed from the Marriner Eccles Building three weeks later. Until then, Bitcoin’s calm is precisely what makes veteran traders nervous—and why hedging desks are doing brisk business selling fear. At press time, BTC traded at $110,661. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
A new Bitcoin price analysis confirms that the flagship cryptocurrency is still in a bullish trend after its recent bounce off a key re-accumulation zone. With key structural support levels intact and a bullish AB=CD pattern unfolding, analysts are now eyeing a potential surge above $120,000, marking a new all-time high. Bitcoin Price Targets $122,000 After AB=CD Completion According to a technical analysis report by TradingView crypto analyst Weslad, Bitcoin is accurately following a well-defined bullish trajectory, potentially paving the way for a surge to $122,000. With BTC now priced at $109,747 at the time of writing, reaching this ATH target would represent an 11.17% increase from current levels. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Puts Bitcoin Price At $120,000 If This Range Breakout Happens This optimistic forecast comes on the heels of an accurate AB=CD pattern on the BTC chart—-a harmonic structure that previously hinted at significant upside potential. Notably, the Bitcoin price has since retraced into a key re-accumulation zone between $104,000 and $107,000 — a move the analyst described as a healthy correction rather than a reversal. Weslad has disclosed that the present re-accumulation zone is a price range where buyers are believed to be stepping in again. As long as Bitcoin stays within or above this zone, the analyst asserts that its market will remain bullish. Currently, Bitcoin is trading well-above the crucial psychological support of $100,000, reinforcing its bullish position. The broader market structure also remains intact within an Ascending Channel, supported by higher timeframe demand zones. According to Weslad’s analysis, if Bitcoin can firmly hold its price within the $104,000 – $107,000 range, the cryptocurrency could see a significant increase to the 2.618 Fibonacci Extension level near $122,000. Adding to this bullish case, a breakout above the $112,000 resistance is also needed to confirm the next leg of this move, marking a potentially stronger and larger upside momentum. BTC Set For Major Pullback Before Breakout As the Bitcoin price approaches the local resistance around $111,000, Weslad warns that the market may face a temporary hurdle before the continuation of the projected uptrend. The TradingView analyst notes that if price action is rejected at this resistance level, traders should anticipate a potential re-test of the $107,000 – $108,000 region. Related Reading: Bitcoin Top Indicator Says It’s Not Over Yet As Parabola Signals Fail This area has served as a reliable barrier during the recent consolidation phase and is expected to hold firm in the event of a minor correction. Most recently, Weslad affirmed that this anticipated corrective move has already concluded, signaling that the market is now poised for the “real growth phase.” With the base demand zone around $86,000 – $91,000 and strong support around $96,000 – $99,000, Bitcoin’s overall structure remains bullish unless a decisive breakdown below $100,000 occurs. Until then, all eyes remain on the $112,000 breakout level, which could trigger a potential surge toward the projected $122,000 target. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
The market’s leading crypto, Bitcoin (BTC), has experienced a retracement below the $109,000 mark on Monday, following its recent surge to an all-time high (ATH) of $111,800 last week. As the cryptocurrency market reacts to these fluctuations, analysts find themselves divided on BTC’s price future trajectory. Bitcoin Could Hit New ATH Of $113,000 This Week Market expert Doctor Profit took to social media platform X (formerly Twitter) to reaffirm his bullish stance, citing the recent occurrence of a “Golden Cross”—a technical indicator that has historically signaled significant price increases. Related Reading: Dogecoin Chart Turns Ugly—This Price Could Trigger Panic With an accuracy rate of 87.8% on higher time frames, the Golden Cross has flashed only twice in the past two years and has now reappeared. Doctor Profit emphasized its rarity, stating, “This is a rare and powerful signal that deserves serious attention.” The expert pointed out during his analysis that the previous instances when the Golden Cross appeared resulted in remarkable price surges: in October 2023, Bitcoin jumped from $27,000 to $73,000, representing a 170% gain, and in October 2024, it rose from $63,000 to $109,000, marking a 73% increase. The expert now anticipates that the Bitcoin price could reach a new all-time high of $113,000 this very same week, citing substantial liquidity in that area and robust momentum in the market. Potential Bull Trap In BTC Additionally, Doctor Profit highlighted the significant inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which are nine times greater than the amount of Bitcoin being mined. He also pointed to Strategy’s (previously MicroStrategy) ongoing accumulation of Bitcoin with a new purchase made on Monday by the company, suggesting that this trend is constraining supply and creating opportunities for further price appreciation. In contrast, fellow analyst Cameron Fous expressed a more cautious outlook on X, suggesting that the current price may represent the peak of the 2025 bull run. He referenced historical price patterns from the previous bull market, asserting that Bitcoin’s recent performance could resemble a “bull trap,” where prices see a sharp decline after reaching a peak. Related Reading: XRP ETF At 83% Approval Odds—Is The SEC Losing Grip? Fous indicated that signs of a potential reversal could be forming, especially if Bitcoin breaks below the 50-day moving average (MA). Despite his caution, he acknowledged that Bitcoin could still rally to between $130,000 and $200,000 in the short term. He emphasized that while the market remains bullish, top signals often precede trend reversals and cautioned that past behavior should inform present decisions, as market dynamics can shift rapidly. When writing, the market’s largest cryptocurrency is trading at approximately $108,739, registering a slight 0.6% retrace in the 24-hour time frame. In total, BTC has retraced little over 3% from its all-time high reached last week. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Strategy, the Bitcoin (BTC) proxy firm formerly known as MicroStrategy and founded by Bitcoin bull Michael Saylor, has announced a significant new acquisition of the market’s leading cryptocurrency on Monday. Strategy Capitalizes On Significant New BTC Acquisition In a recent filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the company revealed it purchased an additional 4,020 BTC for $427.1 million, translating to an average price of $106,237 per token. This acquisition comes on the heels of Bitcoin reaching a new record high close to $112,000 last week, driven by renewed inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and favorable regulatory developments under President Trump’s administration. Related Reading: 2,700% XRP Rise? Analyst Predicts Monster Move Based On The Charts Saylor shared the news on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), noting that the latest purchase brings Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings to approximately 580,250 BTC, acquired for a total investment of $40.6 billion, at an average price of $69,979 per token. As Strategy continues its aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy, the company is also planning to raise additional capital to further enhance its holdings. $7.7 Billion Gain From Bitcoin Investments As reported by NewsBTC last Friday, Strategy announced the launch of a $2.1 billion At-The-Market (ATM) equity program for its preferred stock, Strife (STRF), deemed as a crucial step toward the firm’s long-term goal of establishing a strong Bitcoin-backed financial infrastructure. During an investor update, CEO Phong Lee, alongside Executive Chairman Saylor, highlighted the impressive year-to-date performance of the firm’s Bitcoin-linked securities, Strike (STRK) and Strife, as key factors driving this expansion. Lee emphasized, “We’re currently at a 16.3% BTC yield for the year, against a 25% target,” indicating the firm’s ambitious goals. So far, Strategy has achieved a dollar gain of $7.7 billion from its Bitcoin investments and aims to reach a target of $15 billion. Related Reading: Solana Picture Bigger Than $420: Analyst Predicts 140% Surge To New ATHs The company had previously issued $212 million through Strike’s ATM program without encountering adverse pricing pressure. Given the high trading volume and strong investor demand, Lee expressed optimism that the $2.1 billion Strife ATM could be executed with similar success. In contrast to its other offerings, Strike is designed for “Bitcoin-curious” investors, featuring an 8% coupon and potential upside through Bitcoin conversion. Saylor described it as a “Bitcoin fellowship with a stipend,” appealing to a different risk profile. Currently, Strategy operates three ATM programs: $21 billion each for MicroStrategy (MSTR) equity and Strike, and $2.1 billion for Strife. These programs are rebalanced daily, allowing the company to adjust its issuance based on market conditions, volatility, and investor appetite. At the time of writing, BTC is attempting to consolidate above the key $109,370 mark, which has the potential to become a new support level and allow for new records to be reached in the coming weeks. Year-to-date, the cryptocurrency has gained 56%. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin heads into the final days of May with an unusually dense agenda of market-moving events that stretch from Las Vegas to Washington and Wilmington. Beginning Tuesday the 27th, the world’s largest cryptocurrency will be at the centre of its own ecosystem, Wall Street’s macro diary and one of the most closely watched bankruptcy wind-downs in digital-asset history. Bitcoin Week Of Fire The epicentre is Bitcoin 2025, the annual industry gathering that this year takes over The Venetian in Las Vegas from 27–29 May. Organisers expect more than 30 000 attendees and have added a new “Code + Country” policy track to underline Bitcoin’s emergence as a political wedge issue. “This is more than a headline moment — it’s a signal,” BTC Inc. chief executive David Bailey said when announcing the keynote roster. “Bitcoin is the most exciting financial innovation in the world. It’s at the forefront of the national conversation.” Related Reading: $200,000 Bitcoin ‘Is Real’ By Year-End, Says Top Researcher For the first time a sitting US vice-president will speak at a crypto conference: JD Vance is due on the main stage Wednesday morning, 28 May. His team has trailed a defence of “innovation, financial sovereignty and a more resilient American future,” and public filings show personal Bitcoin holdings worth up to half a million dollars. Moreover, “Crypto Czar” David Sacks, Bo Hines, Executive Director of President Donald Trump’s Council of Advisers for Digital Assets and US Senator Cynthia Lummis will speak on Tuesday. The political guest list does not end there. From abroad, Brexit campaigner – and now Reform UK leader – Nigel Farage has confirmed a fireside interview, arguing that national sovereignty and “free speech” run parallel to Bitcoin’s ethos. “We are pleased to announce that Nigel Farage will join the speaker lineup at the Bitcoin Conference 2025 in Las Vegas,” organisers wrote in a statement last week, framing his return as a natural sequel to his 2023 appearance in Amsterdam. Also slated are Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., underlining how thoroughly the Republican establishment has embraced the event. While cameras focus on the Venetian halls, traders will be wiring what the FTX Recovery Trust calls “over $5 billion” to thousands of former customers of the failed exchange. The second distribution round, beginning Thursday 30 May, will see creditors recover between 54 % and 120 % of their dollar-denominated claims, with BitGo and Kraken acting as agents. Because many claimants sold other crypto holdings to cover losses in 2022, analysts will watch whether a fresh injection of spendable dollars feeds directly back into the market. Related Reading: Stealth Bitcoin Bull Run Ahead: Fidelity Says Do Not Blink Macro traders get no respite. On Wednesday afternoon the Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its 6–7 May policy meeting. The Fed’s signaled that, because of persistent inflation risks, a rate cut is off the table for now, even as policymakers express concern over the economic fallout tariffs could trigger. Twenty-four hours later comes the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ second estimate of first-quarter GDP; the advance print showed a 0.3 % annualised contraction, a surprise that rattled rate-cut odds in early May. Finally, Friday brings the April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, with publication set for 30 May at 08:30 EDT. March’s core PCE was flat month-on-month and 2.6 % year-on-year; economists now infer a 0.2 % MoM rebound for April, keeping the YoY pace at 2.6 %. The estimate comes from translating the latest CPI release into PCE weights. Headline PCE inflation has already slowed to 2.3 % YoY in March, its lowest in four years. At press time, BTC traded at $109,686. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin has seen a sharp pullback in the past few days, dropping below $110,000 after setting a fresh all-time high of $111,900 just four days ago. The correction saw the price fall as low as $107,500 before rebounding slightly, raising doubts among investors about the strength of the recent rally. Despite this retracement, some analysts argue that the bullish structure is still intact for Bitcoin. Particularly, crypto analyst Colin pointed to an interesting macroeconomic indicator called the Global M2 Money Supply as a reason for continued optimism. Global M2 Money Supply Says Bitcoin Rally Still Strong According to an analysis posted by crypto analyst Colin on the social media platform X, Bitcoin continues to track the global M2 money supply with accuracy offset by an 82-day lag. The chart highlights that the global M2 aggregate, which reflects the total liquidity circulating in the world’s largest economies, has recently hit a new all-time high. Historically, Bitcoin has closely mirrored this trend with a slight delay, and Colin believes this pattern suggests there is still considerable room for the Bitcoin price to climb. Related Reading: Bitcoin Vs. Global M2 Money Remains Bullish To Push Price To New ATH Above $100,000 The correlation between the Global M2 money supply and Bitcoin’s price action is statistically significant across various time frames, with the highest correlation of 93% found in the 1½-year window. This strong correlation shows that Bitcoin’s recent rally is on the back of deeper monetary expansion trends. Keeping this in mind, the interpretation is that Bitcoin is undergoing a healthy retracement within a broader upward trend, especially when viewed in the context of the global money supply. The pullback to $107,500 doesn’t invalidate the bullish setup, and Bitcoin’s ability to hold above the previous consolidation level between $102,000 and $104,000 is also a positive note. Colin: Social Sentiment Still Skeptical, But Data Speaks Loudly Despite the new $111,900 all-time high and Bitcoin bulls successfully holding its breakout level as support, social sentiment is still somewhat uncertain. This was also noted by Colin, who pointed out that many market participants still doubt the sustainability of the breakout, describing this disbelief as ironic given the strength of the underlying data. Related Reading: Technical Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Blow Off Top To $325,000 – The Timeline Will Shock You Colin also referenced the CBBI (Crypto Bull Run Index), which currently reads 79, still comfortably below the overheated threshold. This indicates that, by normal standards, the market is far from its euphoric peak, and there’s still significant upside left in the cycle. The chart provided by Colin highlights a projected upward trajectory that would see Bitcoin breaking above current levels toward $130,000 and beyond if the M2 correlation continues to play out. Interestingly, Colin’s analysis of the Global M2 supply and its relation to Bitcoin has been spot on in predicting Bitcoin’s rally. In April, when Bitcoin dropped to as low as $74,000, he projected that May would mark the next major breakout period for Bitcoin’s price, and this forecast has materialized exactly as he anticipated. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $109,670, up by 2% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin’s path to $200,000 by December has gained a new champion. Digital-asset research boutique Capriole Investments drew attention over the weekend to fresh modelling from on-chain analyst “ElonMoney,” arguing that a $200,000 print is not only plausible but statistically grounded. “$200K is real,” Capriole wrote on X, adding that the thread is “a great use of Capriole Charts to conduct a macro Bitcoin analysis.” In the research, ElonMoney assembles six long-horizon indicators. “For this analysis, I used metrics like the MVRV Z-Score, Energy Value Oscillator, Bitcoin Heater, Macro Index, and other indicators, as well as historical data,” the researcher writes. “TL;DR: $200K is real.” Bitcoin To $200K Is Real The MVRV Z-Score, which measures how many standard deviations Bitcoin’s market capitalisation sits above its realised capitalisation, begins the stack. At present the score hovers a touch above 2. ElonMoney calls that “a neutral zone, far from the overheated red band,” adding, “Today’s reading tells us the tank is far from empty; previous cycle tops did not arrive until the Z-Score screamed through seven.” The implication, according to the author, is that price could double from current levels without violating historical symmetry. Related Reading: Bitcoin Extreme Greed Is Here—Time To Be A Contrarian? Energy economics reaches a similar verdict. “The energy value acts as a gravity well for price,” ElonMoney explains, referring to the Energy Value Oscillator, which equates a theoretical fair value to aggregate network energy consumption. That fair-value line sits near $130,000—above spot—so the oscillator itself is close to zero. “Until the oscillator shows a 100 percent premium, talk of a terminal top is premature,” he argues, pointing to the 2021 peak, when the premium exceeded one hundred percent even though Bitcoin capped under $70,000. Under current hash-rate projections the model’s fair value could reach $150,000 by October; a repeat of the historical premium would place price in the $225,000 to $300,000 corridor. Derivatives telemetry offers corroboration rather than contradiction. Bitcoin Heater, a composite of perpetual-swap funding, calendar-spread basis and options skew, reads 0.6–0.7. “Derivatives have begun to simmer, not boil,” the note says. “We are nowhere near the sustained 0.9-plus prints that bleed into blow-off tops. Euphoria needs leverage, and leverage is still only warming up.” The Macro Index Oscillator, built from more than forty on-chain and macro inputs, currently registers +0.7. “That is an unmistakable expansion print,” ElonMoney concedes, “but expansion is not exhaustion. In 2021 we watched the same indicator crest at three.” The researcher stresses that user growth, fee revenue and realised profit-and-loss series all point to an economy that is accelerating, not decelerating. Related Reading: Stealth Bitcoin Bull Run Ahead: Fidelity Says Do Not Blink Liquidity depth, captured by the proprietary “Volume Summer” gauge, is favourable but subdued. “Capital is flowing back into spot markets, yet we have not seen the fever-green highlights that accompany retail stampedes,” says the report. The gauge’s latest reading of +75,000 units contrasts with the +150,000 figure recorded sixty days before the April 2021 apex. “Liquidity is positive; it is not parabolic,” ElonMoney writes. Finally comes leverage in absolute terms. The ratio of total open interest to market capitalisation is just under 3.5%. ElonMoney calls the figure “constructive but not combustible,” adding, “The market mechanically cannot top until speculators believe it cannot fall. We are not at that point yet. If OI/Mcap presses past five percent, alarms will sound; until then, leverage is fuel.” Capriole itself does not publish a price target, yet by circulating the analysis it tacitly accepts the inference that Bitcoin has ample upside into year-end. “$200K is real,” Capriole’s post reads in full, appending a screenshot of the report’s headline chart. The timing question hinges on how quickly those six dials swing toward their historical extremes. ElonMoney offers a conditional roadmap: “If MVRV punches through seven, if the Energy Value premium breaks one hundred percent, if Heater pins at one, and if OI/Mcap hits five percent, you will know distribution territory is in sight.” Barring that confluence, he believes price discovery will grind higher. “Bitcoin does not die of old age,” the note concludes. “It dies of over-valuation, and we are demonstrably not there yet.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $109,559, leaving a near-90% run required to validate ElonMoney’s base case before year-end. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
After an impressive outing in the past week, the price of Bitcoin seems to be in a cool-off period, sitting nearly 4% away from its recent all-time high. This weekend’s performance somewhat looks like the typical movement of the crypto market at the end of the week in 2025. However, the latest on-chain observation shows that a group of investors might be responsible for the sluggishness of the Bitcoin price over the past day. These recent signs point to the possibility of the bull cycle entering its final stages. Here’s When BTC Price Could Begin To Witness Significant Correction In a new post on the social media platform X, investment data firm Alphractal revealed that the Bitcoin short-term holders (STH) are starting to distribute their coins. The short-term holders are known to be the most reactive group of investors, as seen with the BTC investors shaving off their holdings following the recent increase in the Bitcoin price. Related Reading: Bitcoin Pulls Back To Daily EMA 8 – Can Bulls Hold Momentum? This on-chain revelation is based on the changes in the Bitcoin Supply Held By Short-Term Holders indicator, which tracks the total amount of BTC owned by investors for less than 155 days. As shown in the chart below, this metric has been dwindling over the past few weeks, signaling ongoing distribution by short-term investors. From a historical perspective, when the supply held by STH witnesses an abrupt decline, the price of Bitcoin is likely near major cycle tops. In essence, the reactive investors offload their assets as the price increases, slowing down the coin’s demand. Alphractal noted that this is “a classic sign” that the bull cycle might be close to its final stages. The on-chain analytics firm also highlighted that the Short-Term Holder realized price currently sits at $94,500, acting as the final support level preventing this investor group from going underwater. On the other hand, the Long-Term Holder realized price currently stands at around $33,000, suggesting a clear behavioral divergence between long-term and short-term investors. In the end, Alpractal noted that the Bitcoin price still managed to reach new all-time highs in 2021 despite the STH distribution. Hence, the market intelligence platform believes that the BTC price still has room for some upside movement, even though macro on-chain signals and the halving cycle pattern suggest a significant correction could begin after October 2025. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC sits just beneath $109,000, reflecting a 0.4% increase in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the flagship cryptocurrency is up by over 5% in the last seven days. Related Reading: Investors Pour $2.75 Billion Into Bitcoin ETFs As Price Skyrockets Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin has displayed strong bullish momentum, breaking through several resistance levels to reclaim six-figure valuation and forge a new all-time high. After breaching its previous all-time-high price, the premier cryptocurrency has rekindled positive sentiments regarding its growth across the cryptocurrency market. As BTC continues to grow, however, recent on-chain data suggests that investors may need to check their optimism and approach the market with caution. Futures Surge, Spot Falls — Binance Data Signals Need For Caution In a May 24 post on social media platform X, on-chain analyst Darkfost reported that trader activity in the Bitcoin futures market on Binance has slightly increased since May 5, while the spot market activity has dwindled considerably. Related Reading: Technical Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Blow Off Top To $325,000 – The Timeline Will Shock You This on-chain observation is based on two metrics: the Daily Binance Future Trade Volume and the Trading Volume on Futures and Spot. As their names suggest, these metrics track the trading volume across various markets on the world’s largest exchange. When the Future Trading Volume metric has a high value, it typically suggests a growing appetite for short-term bets on BTC. On the other hand, a low value implies less willingness of futures traders to bet on Bitcoin’s movement in the short term. For the spot market, a high value on the metric mirrors investors’ inclination towards long-term bets on Bitcoin. Meanwhile, a low value often indicates that investors suggest reduced faith in the long-term promise of the flagship cryptocurrency. According to data shared by Darkfost, the increase in futures activity, combined with the decrease in spot market activity, has created an imbalance in market dynamics. This current imbalance hints at a rise in speculative trading, meaning investors are now more motivated by risk-on sentiment, rather than long-term belief in the cryptocurrency. According to the analyst, this inclination to place bets on BTC’s short-term movement can heighten volatility, especially when these bets are not backed by strong spot demand to support the trend. “This increase in risk-taking on the market makes the trend more fragile and calls for heightened caution before making investment decisions,” Darkfost ended with a warning note. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $107,770, reflecting a 0.2% increase in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the flagship cryptocurrency is up by over 4% in the past seven days. Related Reading: BNB Price Slingshot To $1,000: Why The 50 EMA Could Hold The Key Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has had an interesting run so far in 2025, embarking on exciting upside rallies and enduring deep corrections in the space of a few months. The latest upward movement suggests the return of interest and confidence in the world’s largest cryptocurrency. After surpassing its previous all-time high price this week, the Bitcoin price has printed a new high of $111,814 — reached on Thursday, May 22. A fresh all-time-high price is often followed by a major correction, as investors are typically inclined to take profits. However, recent on-chain revelation suggests this Bitcoin bull run might be here to stay — and maybe for a longer period than expected. Analyst Says Realized Profits Yet To Signal Market Top In a May 23 post on social media platform X, on-chain crypto analyst Darkfost revealed that the net realized profits by Bitcoin investors remain normal for a bull phase. The relevant indicator backing this assertion is the Net Realized Profit/Loss metric, which measures the net profit or loss (in USD) of all coins spent on the network over a specific timeframe. Related Reading: Bitcoin Smashes Past $111K, But Are Traders About to Dump? This on-chain metric is calculated by finding the difference between the realized profit and realized loss of crypto investors. Positive values from the metric indicate that coins are being spent at a higher price than they were acquired, resulting in a net profit. On the other hand, negative values indicate that coins are being spent at prices lower than they were bought, resulting in a net loss. Neutral values simply suggest that coins are being spent close to their acquisition price. According to on-chain data shared by Darkfost, realized profits are currently at a high level of about 104,000 BTC (a rough equivalent of $11 billion). The analyst, however, pointed out that while this figure is substantial, it still falls short of the 350,000 BTC threshold level (a level which has historically signaled potential tops and preceded major correctional movements of Bitcoin). Darkfost inferred from the highlighted data that the net realized profit for a Bitcoin bull phase is currently at a normal level. The analyst noted the necessity of profit-taking in a bull market, implicitly preaching against fear amongst investors. Darkfost said about profit-taking: It’s what keeps investors engaged in the market and helps sustain the bullish momentum. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at around $108,360, reflecting a more than 2% decline in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Bitcoin Ready For Second ‘Price Discovery Uptrend’ Following $109,000 Breakout – What’s Ahead For BTC? Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Fidelity Digital Assets chose a single post on X to frame its latest research note: “Bitcoin is up ~63 % from its 2024 halving price with 27 % of this halving epoch completed. While past epochs saw triple-digit rallies, a new story may be unfolding: one of rising maturity, deeper adoption, and network resilience.” The tweet landed minutes after the firm released “2024 Bitcoin Halving: One Year Later,” authored by senior analyst Daniel Gray, who contends that the apparent lull in price action masks “a strengthening foundation.” Fidelity Flags Bitcoin’s Silent Surge “Bitcoin presents a nuanced narrative a year after its fourth halving, with signs pointing toward consolidation, network resilience, and growing institutional adoption,” Gray writes, adding that structural indicators “suggest a strengthening foundation.” While previous cycles delivered triple- and even quadruple-digit percentage gains by this stage, Gray argues the softer trajectory signals maturation: “History suggests that we would be well into the bull run at this point in the fifth epoch — but this cycle may be unfolding more cautiously.” From a market-share perspective the data are unequivocal. “Bitcoin’s market dominance excluding stablecoins has risen to just over 72.4% as of 11 May, a new eight-year high,” Gray notes, pointing out that Ether and Solana have surrendered ground even as “fragmentation on the long tail of assets has failed to produce a clear alternative leader.” Related Reading: Bitcoin From Pizza Day Era Still On The Move, Glassnode Reveals On-chain security metrics tell a similar story: “Bitcoin’s daily hash-rate rose above one zetta hash per second twice in April, reflecting continued investment in mining infrastructure despite a 60 percent collapse in hash price since the halving,” he observes. Spot-market behaviour has begun to echo those fundamentals. Bitcoin printed a record intraday high of $109,486 on 21 May before extending above $111,000 on so-called Pizza Day, holding near $110,600 at press time. The move has been underwritten by renewed demand from US spot ETFs, which drew $934.8 million of net subscriptions yesterday, May 22— the heaviest single-day haul in almost four weeks. Derivatives activity mirrors the trend: aggregate futures open interest reached a record $80 billion on May 23, up roughly 30% since the start of the month, according to CoinGlass data. Related Reading: Bitcoin Blasts To $111,867 All-Time High—Here’s What’s Driving The Surge Meanwhile, funding rates in most crypto exchanges are at the baseline or below it. “This is the least euphoric new all-time highs in the history of Bitcoin,” crypto analyst Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) wrote via X. Gray cautions that investors should focus less on headline returns and more on the architecture taking shape beneath them. “Although returns have been more measured compared to previous cycles, structural metrics suggest a strengthening foundation. Overall, it appears Bitcoin is potentially maturing—something investors may find more notable than short-term price movement,” he writes. His closing assessment is blunt: “One year post-halving, Bitcoin’s price performance may seem muted, but its fundamentals appear stronger than ever … this may be a cycle that redefines Bitcoin’s role in a modern portfolio.” In other words, Fidelity’s message for would-be spectators is as clear as its headline: do not blink. At press time, BTC traded at $109,563. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s price action in the past 24 hours has been nothing short of remarkable. After consolidating for several days in a tightening range, the market broke past the $105,503 support-turned-resistance zone earlier in the week and kicked off a steep climb in the past trading day. This has allowed Bitcoin to push into new all-time high levels, and is showing no signs of slowing down. Interestingly, technical analysis shows the rally comes off an approach of a golden cross between the 50 and 200-day moving averages, but FX_Professor offered a different take on the much-celebrated golden cross. Analyst Disputes Golden Cross Hype As Late Signal In a recent analysis published on TradingView, FX_Professor discussed a different take on Bitcoin’s golden cross. While most market commentators interpret this crossover of the 50-day simple moving average above the 200-day as a strong bullish confirmation, the analyst dismissed it as a delayed indicator. The analyst described it as the afterparty where retail investors arrive late to the scene. Related Reading: Golden Ratio Multiplier Called Bitcoin Top In 2021 – Here’s What It’s Saying Now Instead of waiting for the golden cross to flash green, FX_Professor noted pre-indicator pressure zones as the real signal of value. In the case of Bitcoin’s price action in recent months, the analyst pointed out the $74,394 and $79,000 region as the zone of accumulation and early positioning, well before the golden cross became visible. As such, by the time the cross appeared recently, Bitcoin’s price action had already been up significantly. The golden cross is often used by traders as a signal to enter a long position, as it suggests that the asset’s price is likely to continue rising. However, this analysis follows a trend among experienced traders who view the golden cross as more of a lagging confirmation than a trigger of a rally. Early Entry Zones And Structure Matter More, Analyst Says According to FX_Professor, indicators such as EMAs or SMAs can be useful but should never come before understanding the price structure, trendlines, and real-time pressure zones. He shared a snapshot of his own Bitcoin price chart that combines custom EMAs with a signature parallelogram method to detect where price tension begins to build. Visible on the chart are entries forming as early as April when Bitcoin bounced off support around $74,000, long before the crossover confirmation. Related Reading: Bitcoin Top Indicator Says It’s Not Over Yet As Parabola Signals Fail Now, with Bitcoin pushing toward the next target zone near $113,000, the analyst’s strategy continues to validate itself in real time. Nonetheless, the confirmation of a golden cross is still bullish for Bitcoin’s price action moving forward, even if the price rally is already halfway to its peak level. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $110,734. This marks a slight pullback from the new all-time high of $111,544, which was registered just three hours ago. The Bitcoin price is still up by 3.1% in the past 24 hours, and new all-time highs are possible before the weekly close. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
The Bitcoin price is flying high at the moment, having rallied to a new all-time high (ATH) of $111,800 on May 22. Now, crypto analyst Tony Severino has predicted that this rally is likely to sustain, with BTC reaching $120,000 at some point. Bitcoin Price To Reach $120,000 Following This Range Breakout In an X post, Tony Severino predicted that the Bitcoin price could reach between $116,000 and $120,000 following the breakout from the $106,000 range. This prediction came just before BTC surged past its previous ATH of $109,100 on May 21. The analyst asserted that the flagship crypto could witness a “long, white candlestick” leading to the rally to this range. Related Reading: Bitcoin At $118,000 Before June? Trader Reveals When As Weekly MACD Turns Bullish He had also warned that failure to break above the $106,000 range could lead to a retracement as lower timeframe momentum begins to wane. In another post, Severino explained why the range breakout was significant, noting that these breakouts in the Bitcoin price tend to offer a sustainable short-term trend to ride higher. He added that a valid range breakout should be supported by the RSI above 70 on the 3-day timeframe. The Bitcoin price currently boasts an ultra-bullish outlook, having rallied above the $110,000 mark and reached a new ATH of $111,800. Commenting on the surge to a new ATH, Severino admitted he was wrong about the bear thesis, stating that the macro fundamentals led over the technicals on this rally. The crypto analyst is confident that the Bitcoin price can go way higher. In his latest analysis, he revealed that BTC’s quarterly just triggered a perfected TD9 Sell Setup. He added that the only other time this happened was in Q4 2017, which was the most bullish quarter in crypto history. Bitcoin eventually rose by over 350% above the candlestick open. If history were to repeat itself, Severino predicts that the move will be “fast, violent, and over” sooner than anyone can imagine. He noted that up appears to be the chosen direction, which is a positive for the Bitcoin price. A Golden Cross Is Incoming For BTC In an X post, crypto analyst Titan of Crypto stated that a golden cross is incoming for the Bitcoin price. He remarked that BTC is repeating the same pattern, with a Death Cross happening before the Golden Cross. The analyst added that the last time this happened, it triggered a major rally. Related Reading: Bitcoin Macro Trend Oscillator Shows When To Expect The Price Top In another post, Titan of Crypto predicted that the Bitcoin price could rally to as high as $135,000. He affirmed that the target is still play, with BTC likely to reach this price level this year. Meanwhile, veteran analyst Peter Brandt suggested that Bitcoin could rally to between $125,000 and $150,000 by August. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $111,300, up over 3% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin pierced the $111,000 threshold for the first time in history on May 22, printing an intraday high of $111,867 on Binance, giving the asset a market capitalization of roughly $2.22 trillion, or two-thirds of the entire crypto market. The latest leg of the rally is being propelled by a tight confluence of catalysts that span institutional flows, corporate balance-sheet accumulation, and mounting macro-economic stress. #1 Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows From Wall Street to BlackRock’s vaults, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have turned into a one-way conduit of fresh capital. Farside Investors tallied $607.1 million of net subscriptions on 21 May, of which a blockbuster $530.6 million flowed into BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). That pushed the 11-day haul to more than $2.7 billion and lifted cumulative net inflows across the complex past $42 billion—an unprecedented pace for a six-month-old asset class. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breakout Narrative Explodes As Japan’s Bond Market Collapses “Over $500mil into iShares Bitcoin ETF…Nearly $2 bil just over past week or so. Inflows 26 of past 27 days. *$7+bil* in new $$$ overall. Given trading volume today, expect these inflow numbers to increase,” ETF Store president Nate Geraci posted on X. Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas added that IBIT is posting “its 2nd biggest volume day ever today. Classic feeding frenzy in effect, new ATHs will do that, e.g. last time traded this much was 1/23 (last ATH). All the btc ETFs are elevated, most gonna see 2x their average. Flows incoming.” #2 Bitcoin Treasury Companies Parallel to the ETF torrent, a new cohort of listed companies is adopting Bitcoin as a primary treasury asset. Besides Strategy and Metaplanet, these companies bought billions of dollars in Bitcoin in recent weeks. Cantor Fitzgerald’s $3.6 billion SPAC deal will take Twenty One Capital public with more than 42,000 BTC on its books, backed by Tether, Bitfinex and SoftBank. Strive Asset Management is merging with Asset Entities on Nasdaq to create what it calls the first publicly traded asset-manager-led Bitcoin treasury company, equipped with a live $1 billion shelf to keep buying coin. Battery-tech firm KULR Technology Group lifted its stack to 800 BTC this week after a fresh $9 million purchase. Elsewhere, India’s Jetking Infotrain, Indonesia’s DigiAsia Corp, Brazil’s fintech Méliuz, France’s state lender Bpifrance and David Bailey’s Nakamoto Holdings, now merging with KindlyMD to build “the first decentralised Bitcoin treasury network,” among others, all unveiled accumulation strategies within the past month. Collectively these firms represent billions of dollars in spot, largely price-insensitive demand. #3 The New Narrative: A Brewing Macro Storm The macro backdrop is pouring fuel on the fire. Japanese super-long government bonds—once synonymous with near-zero yields—have gone bid-less, sending the 30-year JGB yield to a record 3.14 %. The move tightens the feedback loop linking Tokyo and Washington: Japanese institutions have been among the largest foreign holders of US Treasuries, and analysts warn that disorderly JGB liquidations could force sales of US debt just as the Treasury must refinance roughly $8 trillion this year. Related Reading: Bitcoin All-Time High Propels It Past Amazon, Google To 5th Place Among Global Assets With the WSJ Dollar Index down more than 10% from its January peak and CFTC data showing the biggest speculative short position since mid-2023, investors are casting around for alternatives to sovereign paper. Macro guru Raoul Pal said: “Bond yields are going up. Normally that’s not a good thing… But inflation is falling all the time. The story is liquidity. There’s a lack of liquidity in the bond market, and when yields get too high the government’s reaction function is always and in every case to print more money.” Global liquidity dynamics add to the case. Global M2—aggregating the money stock in the US, euro-area, China and Japan—bottomed late last year and has risen 3–4 % year-to-date, according to multiple trackers. Bitcoin price inflections typically lag global-M2 turns by about three months; the current rally arrived almost on schedule. As crypto analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) observed on X, “Dollar goes down, global liquidity rises, BTC goes higher.” For some market veterans, the price action signals a deeper behavioural shift. “We are watching BTC transform from a risk-on asset to a risk-off asset,” Multicoin Capital co-founder Tushar Jain wrote after Wednesday’s bond rout and dollar sell-off. “Today we saw further proof that the government cannot cut the budget deficit. The market reacted by selling US treasuries, selling USD, selling equities, and buying BTC. The transformation is not yet complete. It will take more days like this to convince the market that BTC is a risk off asset. Like most big changes, this will happen slowly and then suddenly,” Jain added. At press time, BTC traded at $ Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
On May 21, Bitcoin (BTC) achieved a remarkable milestone, reaching a new all-time high (ATH) near the $110,000 mark. This surge was fueled by significant buying pressure, elevating Bitcoin’s market capitalization to over $2.1 trillion. As a result, the market’s leading cryptocurrency has now positioned itself among the most valuable assets globally, ranking fifth in market capitalization and surpassing major firms like Amazon and Google. Will Bitcoin Surpass Gold? According to the Companies Market Cap web page, Bitcoin’s price surge pushed its market capitalization to approximately $2.182 trillion. Currently, Bitcoin trails only behind tech giants Apple, NVIDIA, and Microsoft, as well as the traditional safe-haven asset, gold, which holds a staggering capitalization of over $22 trillion. Rob Nelson from The Street reported insights from Gracy Chen Chen, Bitget’s Managing Director on a roundtable discussion back in February, highlighting the transformative nature of the cryptocurrency market. Related Reading: Shiba Inu Bulls Roar To Life After Breakout—Next Price Targets With increasing institutional adoption, evolving regulations, and new real-world applications, Chen expressed optimism about Bitcoin’s future. “Bitcoin will definitely surpass gold in terms of market cap, at least for a while, maybe this year or in the upcoming few years,” she stated, suggesting that Bitcoin has the potential for another two to threefold increase in price. Historically seen as “digital gold,” Bitcoin’s role has evolved significantly. Initially perceived as an anti-risk asset, it has become more correlated with traditional financial markets, especially following the anticipated approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024. “In the early days, Bitcoin was much considered as digital gold. Right now, it’s still digital gold in my opinion, but now it’s more like a risky asset,” Chen explained, noting its increased correlation with the US stock market. Analysts Predict Potential Surge To $150,000 Positive regulatory developments in the US have further bolstered investor sentiment, fueling expectations for price discovery phases for BTC. Antoni Trenchev, co-founder of the digital asset trading platform Nexo, commented on the current market landscape: Now that January’s high has been surpassed—and the 50 percent upside from April’s lows has been achieved—Bitcoin enters blue sky territory with tailwinds in the form of institutional momentum and a favorable US regulatory environment. Related Reading: Litecoin Eyes $117.50 As Price Rebounds From Key Support – Analyst Trenchev also emphasized that the market’s still in the fourth year of Bitcoin’s price cycle, traditionally seen as a pivotal period following a halving event—when miner rewards are cut in half. Historically, this phase has led to significant price increases. “While macro uncertainty and the threat of further volatility remain, a target of $150,000 in 2025 is still very much on the cards,” he concluded. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $109,570, which is up by 3% and 25% on the 24-hour and 30-day time frames, respectively. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Japan’s government-bond complex, once the benchmark for low-yield stability, is cracking under the weight of its own arithmetic—and the fissures are sending tremors straight into the global debate about Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Thirty-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields catapulted to 3.15% this week, eclipsing every prior high since the tenor’s 1999 debut. That print triggered an instant warning from the markets newsletter The Kobeissi Letter: “Japan’s bond market is imploding… Japan’s 30Y Government Bond Yield has officially surged to its highest level in history, at 3.15%. For decades, Japan was known for low long-term interest rates. Now they are dealing with high inflation, shifting policy outlook, and a whopping 260% Debt-to-GDP ratio.” Liquidity, always fragile at the long end of Tokyo’s curve, vanished just hours later. From New York, Zerohedge relayed traders’ disbelief: “This is unbelievable: for the second day in a row, Japan’s bond market is bidless, with both 30Y and 40Y JGB yields at record highs. Meanwhile, as the world’s 2nd biggest bond market is imploding, the BOJ is pretending nothing is happening.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Macro Trend Oscillator Shows When To Expect The Price Top Inside the Diet, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba delivered a stark political gloss: Japan’s fiscal plight, he conceded, is now “worse than Greece,” a phrase that would have been unthinkable during the deflationary 2010s. That assessment lands just as gross public debt pushes toward 260% of GDP and as Japanese investors—who still hold roughly $1.1 trillion of US Treasuries—contemplate selling overseas paper to shore up domestic books. Why This Is Ultra-Bullish For Bitcoin For Bitcoin analysts, the chain of causality is brutally clear. Pseudonymous macro voice Stack Hodler wrote to his followers: “Everyone expects Yield Curve Control. But Japan already tried YCC and look at what it got them—a spectacular bond-market implosion happening right in front of us. Now every Japanese bank, pension fund, and insurance company that trusted the Bank of Japan is holding a massive bag of flaming excrement… If this is the end result of YCC, why would any rational investor hold sovereign debt from severely indebted nations? Central-bank credibility is shattering in real time. Scarce neutral reserve assets—Bitcoin and gold—need to be repriced dramatically higher.” Dan Tapiero, founder of the $3.9 billion digital-asset vehicle 10T Holdings, reached much the same conclusion in fewer words: “Quietly…and off the radar…the Japanese long-bond yields are going parabolic. Time to watch Japan…Unsustainable deficits have been the norm for 30 yrs…Now a problem. Very bullish gold and Bitcoin.” The systemic-risk argument tightens further when one zooms out to the global balance sheet. Author Bruce Florian frames the macro math as musical chairs with a finite number of safe havens: “There are three times more debts than GDP, and interest rates are twice as high as economic growth… It’s like a game of musical chairs. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Fate May Be Sealed On June 9, Analyst Warns Everyone knows there are fewer chairs than players.” Florian highlights the feedback loop linking Tokyo and Washington: “The biggest buyer of US debt has been Japan… But this customer is now in financial trouble… There’s a high chance Japan will sell some of these bonds to stabilize its own situation… In a year when the USA needs to refinance $8 trillion, what happens if no buyers show up? The Fed will monetize the debt.” The punch line, he insists, is Bitcoin: “Bitcoin is shifting from a ‘nice-to-have’ asset to a must-have asset… In a world of unlimited debt, scarcity is the most radical form of reason.” Wall Street heavyweights are edging toward the same territory. JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon told investors on Monday, “I’m not a buyer of bonds. The risks are too high.” Ray Dalio wrote that the greater default risk now lies in “currency debasement,” not in missed coupons. And Larry Fink, whose firm’s spot-Bitcoin ETF has absorbed more than $31 billion since January, said on Fox Business that Bitcoin is “an international asset” fit for times when “countries devalue their currencies.” BTC Price Responds Bitcoin’s price action is responding in real time. BTC rose to $107,322 at press time, less than 4% shy of its halving-cycle high. None of this proves that Bitcoin is destined to replace sovereign debt, but the directional shift in marginal flows is no longer hypothetical. When the second-largest bond market on earth shows two consecutive bidless sessions and its prime minister compares the country to Greece, capital chases the assets whose supply cannot be printed. Bitcoin, engineered for hard-cap scarcity, slots neatly into that vacuum. Whether this is the moment sovereign debt loses the mantle of “risk-free” remains to be seen. What is indisputable is that the implosion of Japan’s ultra-long JGBs has handed Bitcoin its clearest macro tail-wind since 2020’s pandemic-era liquidity flood—except this time the narrative is not emergency stimulus but the dawning realization that even advanced nations are running out of balance-sheet room. For a growing cohort of investors, the word bond is beginning to rhyme less with safety and more with risk, while Bitcoin is rhyming—loudly—with insurance. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Despite price pullbacks and recent market volatility, a crypto analyst has predicted that Bitcoin (BTC) may still have room for another parabolic rally. The analyst cited historically reliable top indicators that suggest that the market has not reached its top yet, even as parabolic signals fail to trigger a surge. No Sign Of A Bitcoin Cycle Top — Yet In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), market expert Crypto Con shared a comprehensive technical analysis rooted in the well-regarded top Bitcoin cycle indicators developed by DA_Prof. The accompanying chart revealed that Bitcoin’s current market trajectory has yet to reach the “cycle top” zone — a region that has consistently coincided with major market peaks in the past. Related Reading: Road To $320,000: Bitcoin Enters Trend Continuation, But $109,400 Must Hold Da Prof’s technical indicator model synthesizes insights from thirteen time-tested on-chain and market metrics. This multifactor approach has successfully predicted past cycle tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021, making it a valuable tool in potentially identifying long-term market turning points. According to Crypto Con, Bitcoin’s current price action and technical readings suggest that the flagship cryptocurrency may still be preparing for a final ATH rally. The analyst asserts that any potential cycle peak in 2025 will likely emerge only when Bitcoin enters a critical zone identified through the convergence of these thirteen advanced indicators. The metrics utilized in Da Prof’s indicator model include: Coin Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) Extension Net Unrealized Profit-Loss (NUPL) Market Value-Realized Value Z-score (MVRVZ) Calendar Seasonality (CSI: top near November 21) Puell Multiple (PUELL) Halving Seasonality (HSI: top near 538 days after halving event) Logue PolyLog Regression (PLR) Realized Price (RP) Extension Plus Directional Movement (PDM) Logarithmic MACD (LMACD) Pi Cycle Top (PCT) Transaction Fee Spike (TFS) Risk Crypto Con noted that historically, when these indicators converged in the red-hot region, represented by the cluster of indicators in the lower heatmap section of the chart, the Bitcoin price experienced a dramatic peak followed by a significant crash. However, in the current cycle, none of Da Prof’s metrics have entered the zone. Instead, the readings across the lower bands of the model remain comparatively muted, suggesting that market euphoria has not yet reached past-cycle extremes. Parabola Signals Flash Early, But No Peak In Sight While Da Prof’s top Bitcoin indicators remain elusive, Parabola signals, another key feature of Crypto Con’s analysis, have flashed not once but three times in this cycle. These signals are historically linked with the early stages of Bitcoin’s explosive price rallies experienced during the previous bull markets. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Price Turning Bullish Or Bearish? Crypto Analyst Reveals Critical Levels To Watch Yet despite these alerts, Bitcoin has failed to enter a true parabolic breakout phase so far in 2025. Crypto Con has indicated that the May 2025 parabola signal is especially notable, as it coincides with Bitcoin crossing the indicator’s Parabolic Boundary. This breach, paired with the absence of Da Prof’s indicator stack, creates an unusual setup. Emphasizing this anomaly, Crypto Con posed a rhetorical question: “No cycle top + parabola signal = ?” —- hinting that Bitcoin’s true bullish climax may still be ahead. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin is currently trading around the $105,000 mark after a brief uptick to $107,000 in the past 24 hours. Notably, this marks the second time Bitcoin has rejected around $107,000 in the past few days. Despite this volatility, Bitcoin managed to close last week’s candle above a key resistance level that had capped its price action for weeks. This close, recorded just above the red horizontal line at $103,000, has introduced confidence in the continuation of the uptrend, and points to the bulls still in control of Bitcoin’s price action. Bitcoin Weekly Closes Above Range – First Bullish Step Current Bitcoin price action shows that bullish investors and buyers are still controlling the momentum behind the largest cryptocurrency and, in essence, the rest of the crypto market. Notably, Bitcoin initially experienced a brief surge to nearly $107,000 over the weekend before retreating. Related Reading: Bitcoin Macro Trend Oscillator Shows When To Expect The Price Top This price movement was followed by a dip to around $102,000, with the back-and-forth most likely being influenced by factors such as Moody’s downgrade of U.S. debt and investor reactions to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. However, in an interesting note, the BTC price managed to close above the $103,000 range during this first move to $107,000, which is very important in terms of technical analysis going forward. This sentiment is echoed by crypto analyst Rekt Capital on social media platform X, who pointed out the next step that might play out for Bitcoin. Post-Breakout Retest Underway, Says Rekt Capital The $104,000 price level had previously acted as a stubborn ceiling throughout much of the recent Bitcoin price consolidation between $102,000 and $104,000 since May 9. However, since breaking above this level, the ensuing price action has seen the Bitcoin price retracing towards this level after another rejection at $107,000. Related Reading: Golden Ratio Multiplier Called Bitcoin Top In 2021 – Here’s What It’s Saying Now According to crypto analyst Rekt Capital, the dip following the $107,000 rejection isn’t necessarily bearish. Instead, it could be part of a post-breakout retest, a pattern often seen in strong bullish structures. If this retest successfully confirms the former resistance as new support, BTC could set the stage for a breakout into fresh all-time highs. As shown in the 1W Bitcoin price chart above, the red resistance level is very close to Bitcoin’s January 2025 all-time high around $108,780. Furthermore, the chart shows that the recent breakout above the $90,000–$103,000 zone appears to mirror a pattern of Bitcoin’s breakout after a consolidation move, after another bounce from a low. In this case, the bounce occurred at the $75,000 low in early April. If Bitcoin does rebound with enough trading volume around $104,000, this could provide the much-needed momentum for a move above $107,000 and finally above $108,700 again. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $105,555, up by 2.9% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com
With Bitcoin (BTC) surging back above the $105,000 mark and nearing its record high set in January, market expert Doctor Profit has outlined bullish predictions for the leading cryptocurrency. In a recent post on social media platform X, he detailed the dynamics he believes will drive Bitcoin toward new highs. Bitcoin Breaks Key Levels As Institutional Demand Surges Since hitting $77,000, Doctor Profit identified $100,000 as the first significant target, which has now been achieved. Looking ahead, he sees the next breakout target between $116,000 and $120,000. His confidence stems from several positive indicators, including a strong bullish divergence observed on the daily chart—a technical signal often associated with forthcoming price increases. He emphasized that daily divergences tend to have a higher success rate than those seen on longer time frames. Related Reading: Coinbase Confirms DOJ Investigation Following Major Security Incident Additionally, Doctor Profit pointed out that the funding rate is currently stable, with no over-leveraged positions in the market. He noted that BTC recently broke out of a significant double bottom formation and is now testing previous highs. A critical factor in his outlook is the substantial accumulation by US exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which are reportedly purchasing Bitcoin at a rate eight times greater than its current mining output. This aggressive accumulation phase, according to Doctor Profit, indicates institutional interest remains robust, even as retail traders have largely stayed on the sidelines during recent volatility. BTC Could Dip To $90,000 The analyst also highlighted that the strongest retail buying occurred around the $90,000 mark, which also represents a liquidity hotspot. Should the market revisit this level, he sees it as an optimal entry point, perfectly positioned at the bottom of the established trading box. Looking ahead, Doctor Profit anticipates volatility, particularly in light of Moody’s recent downgrade of the US credit rating from AAA to AA1—the first major downgrade since S&P’s similar action in 2011. Historical context suggests that such downgrades can lead to swift market corrections. In August 2011, following a downgrade, markets dropped by 5.5% in a single day. Doctor Profit believes that Bitcoin could similarly dip into the $90,000 range to capture liquidity before rebounding. Related Reading: Dogecoin On The Edge: Major Breakout Or Breakdown Imminent? Despite potential short-term fluctuations due to the downgrade, Doctor Profit maintains a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, reiterating his target of $116,000 to $120,000. He noted that the market had largely priced in the downgrade, and historically, stocks have rallied following such events. With major institutions, including BlackRock, increasing their Bitcoin purchases in the exchange-traded fund arena, Doctor Profit sees no signs of weakness in the market, pointing to further price gains for the market’s leading cryptocurrency. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $105,400, marking a 12% increase over the past two weeks and a nearly 24% increase over the past month. Year-to-date, the cryptocurrency has gained 60%, lagging behind XRP’s gains of over 300% in the same period. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin spent the European trading hours changing hands near $103,000 after Sunday night’s failed attempt to clear $107,100. The pull-back has done little to dent the conviction of market technician Dr Cat (@DoctorCatX), who argues that the decisive battleground is still three weeks away: the weekly close of 9 June, when the Tenkan-sen is projected to cross above the Kijun-sen on the Ichimoku chart. What This Means For Bitcoin Price In a post on X published on May 19, the analyst reminded followers that “some people don’t understand the concept of time-frames,” adding that “while now we have a clear rejection with volume, a lot of people decided to get scared … on the first red 4h candle which even if red, didn’t break support.” He framed the current setback as routine consolidation: “Since tomorrow ~99.9K is a super-strong support,” he wrote, identifying the high-liquidity pocket between $98,900 and $100,200 as an area that is “most likely” to be “bought up pretty quickly and decisively” should spot bids be tested. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s $10,000 Stairway: Chart Signals March Toward $115,000 The crux of Dr Cat’s argument lies in the interaction of the fast-moving Tenkan-sen and the medium-term Kijun-sen on the weekly chart. An upward cross of the former above the latter—sometimes colloquially dubbed a “TK golden cross”—carries weight among Ichimoku practitioners because it signals that near-term momentum has finally overwhelmed the baseline trend. What makes the 9 June close especially delicate is the tightness of the current range. Dr Cat concedes that “it’s unclear which will come first, $99,000 or $109,000—and that doesn’t really matter,” but he is categorical that “any deeper retrace below $98,000 is very unlikely.” The rising Kijun-sen, itself a 26-period mid-point, has in effect ratcheted support higher with every week of sideways trade. Related Reading: Galaxy CEO Novogratz Sees Imminent Bitcoin Breakout To $130,000 Macro-sensitive traders will also be working around the publication of the May US Consumer Price Index on June 11—two days after the anticipated TK cross—and the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting meeting on June 17-18. With real-yield expectations still dominating risk-asset positioning, any upside surprise in core inflation could delay the confirmation of bullish chart patterns—or intensify them if the data land dovish. For now, the market remains range-bound. As long as $99,000 holds on a closing basis and the Chikou-span (lagging line) stays above price, Dr Cat sees little reason to abandon an all-time-high thesis. “If by the time of the cross the price is still holding above Tenkan Sen … if ATH is not seen by then, it should be seen pretty much immediately,” he wrote. Whether that confidence will survive the macro calendar is another question. What is clear is that both discretionary traders and systematic funds are marking 9 June as the moment the chart either validates the 2025 bull cycle—or postpones it once more. At press time, BTC traded at $103,721. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s price action in the past 24 hours has been marked by a highly volatile phase that saw it briefly reach above the $106,000 mark. However, this was followed by a return to consolidation around the $103,000 price level. This intense volatility in the past 24 hours suggests that the Bitcoin price still has a long way to go before it reaches a price top. Amid this volatile movement, a new macroeconomic model, the Decode Macro Trend Oscillator (MTO), has pointed out when to expect Bitcoin’s price to top this cycle. Decode’s Macro Trend Oscillator Model And Its Alignment With Bitcoin Peaks The Decode Macro Trend Oscillator is a sophisticated tool designed by a Bitcoin analyst known as Decode on the social media platform X. The oscillator aggregates around 40 macroeconomic indicators, ranging from interest rates and global liquidity to industrial production and market volatility, into 17 carefully selected leading metrics. Related Reading: Golden Ratio Multiplier Called Bitcoin Top In 2021 – Here’s What It’s Saying Now These are then normalized and visualized as a histogram to produce a cyclical pattern that has historically aligned with Bitcoin’s major tops. A close look at the chart titled Bitcoin Liquid Index on the 1M candlestick timeframe reveals that the light green histogram bars have coincided with each of Bitcoin’s cycle peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021. These peaks are marked by vertical red lines, and the transitions from deep red to green territory on the oscillator appear to offer a visual cue for the end of bearish phases and the onset of price rallies. As of May 2025, the histogram remains in a deep red zone but has begun inching upward, with the most recent bar reading at -11.47, suggesting that macroeconomic conditions may soon start to favor a bigger rally for Bitcoin. BTC Mode Configuration Fine-Tunes Cycle Top Prediction Decode’s analysis goes beyond Bitcoin-specific indicators. In one of the accompanying charts of the S&P 500 Index of the 2M timeframe, a long-term comparison is made between the current global environment and the economic backdrop of the late 1980s and early 1990s. Interestingly, Decode’s macro trend oscillator proved reliable in estimating periods of downturns and expansions in both instances. Related Reading: Bitcoin Weekly SuperTrend Flashes Sell Signal From 2022 Despite BTC/USD Strength In both instances, inflation pressure and declining consumer sentiment pushed the oscillator deep into negative territory for years. However, once the histogram flipped into the green, the economy and prices entered a prolonged phase of expansion. The third chart offers a more detailed view of Bitcoin’s weekly trend, including an overlay of M2 money supply growth, which is another popular monetary metric. This view highlights how the Macro Trend Oscillator, when switched to a configuration Decode called “Bitcoin Mode,” fine-tunes its sensitivity to metrics that directly impact crypto markets. In this configuration, only a few of the full 17 metrics that best identify Bitcoin cycle tops are used. As it stands, Bitcoin is still in the negative red histogram zone, even despite its rally in recent months. The first deep green histogram has yet to show up, not to mention the first light green bar that will mark the cycle peak. Based on this setup, the oscillator implies that Bitcoin still has a lot of room to run this cycle, and that a price top is unlikely to arrive in 2025. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $103,300. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
The Bitcoin price action over the weekend has been quite sluggish, reflecting the indecision and fatigue seemingly hovering over the cryptocurrency market at the moment. After a dour performance during the week, the premier cryptocurrency has continued to trade within the $92,000 – $95,000 range on Saturday, May 17. With the choppy price action, doubt about the Bitcoin price reclaiming its all-time high of $108,786 is starting to creep in. However, the latest on-chain data suggests that the market leader could be gearing up for significant price movements over the next few weeks. Open Interest Metric Predicts What’s Next For BTC Price In a recent post on the X platform, blockchain analytics firm Alphractal delved into fresh on-chain observations revolving around the price of Bitcoin and the open interest (OI) cycle. According to the market intelligence firm, the BTC open interest data is exhibiting certain patterns that have coincided with major price moves in the past. Related Reading: Bitcoin Consolidates Below ATH – Buying Pressure Weakens As Equities Outperform Typically, the open interest metric measures the total amount of money flowing into BTC derivatives at any given period. Meanwhile, the OI Delta indicator estimates changes in the open interest over a specific timeframe. Firstly, Alphractal highlighted that the 30-day Open Interest Delta recently reached the same levels seen during the Bitcoin price rise to its previous all-time high around $73,737 in 2024. This pattern shows that the BTC market could be at the beginning of a cyclical behavioral change. Alphractal said: A familiar pattern is emerging: alternating cycles of increase and decrease in the Open Interest Delta — what we might call Phase 1 and Phase 2. After a strong buildup of positions (positive Delta), we often see a nearly proportional drop (negative Delta), showing clear cyclical behavior in the market. Furthermore, Alphractal noted that the 180-day Open Interest Delta offers a more interesting insight into the Bitcoin price trajectory in the coming weeks. According to the market intelligence firm, a negative 180-day OI Delta metric is usually associated with a market bottom or an accumulation trend. As shown in the chart above, the 180-day Open Interest Delta sits just above the negative territory, which suggests that the Bitcoin price could witness increased volatility in the coming weeks. However, it is worth mentioning that a cross beneath the zero threshold could also signal the start of a new consolidation phase. Alphractal concluded on X: Overall, Open Interest has not grown proportionally like it did from October 2023 to early 2024 — and again from October 2024 into early 2025. These yearly patterns may suggest a fractal behavior in investor risk appetite. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $103,367, reflecting a 0.4% decline in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Bitcoin Outshines All In 2025, Official Report From Russian Central Bank Says Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
The price of Bitcoin has been on quite the run since mid-April, finding its way from beneath the $85,000 mark to as high as $104,700 over the past month. The largest cryptocurrency market enjoyed a positive shift in investor sentiment and a fresh influx of capital, especially through the BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Interestingly, the premier cryptocurrency seems to be showing some signs of fatigue, especially after failing to break out of the $102,000 – $105,000 consolidation range over the past week. This sluggish round of price action has called into question the authenticity of the recent bullish impulse. BTC Still Missing Its Bullish Aggression: Crypto Expert Chartered Market Technician (CMT) Tony Severino took to the X platform to share an interesting insight into the price action of Bitcoin over the last few weeks. According to the crypto expert, the price of BTC might be missing a classic technical behavior, often correlated with aggressive bullish impulses. Related Reading: Ethereum Breaks Above Key Realized Price Zones—What It Means for ETH The rationale behind this observation is the recent movement of the daily relative strength index (RSI) indicator on the Bitcoin price chart. The relative strength index is a momentum indicator used in technical price analysis to estimate the speed and magnitude of an asset’s price changes. The RSI oscillator is typically used to analyze whether a crypto asset is being overbought or oversold, signaling a potential trend/price reversal. An RSI reading of above 70 usually indicates an overbought market condition, while a relative strength index value below 30 signals an oversold condition. According to Severino, Bitcoin bull runs historically coincide with a rapid surge of the RSI oscillator above the 70 threshold, reflecting overwhelming buying pressure in the market. This pattern is noticeable in the chart below, as highlighted during the October 2023 rally and the November 2024 post-election breakout. However, Bitcoin’s current price action appears more cautious and less convincing. While the market leader has been recovering from its early-year blues, the relative strength index has yet to exhibit the clean upward break (above 70) typical of significant bullish expansions. Severino did note that the Bitcoin bullish impulse—signaled by the RSI break above 70—could emerge at any moment. If the bullish strength does come, investors could see the price of BTC break out of the current consolidation range and toward its all-time high. Bitcoin Price Overview As of this writing, BTC is valued at around $103,676, reflecting no significant price movements in the past 24 hours. The past day’s sluggishness underscores the premier cryptocurrency’s performance in the past week. According to data from CoinGecko, the Bitcoin price has increased by merely 0.8% in the last seven days. Related Reading: Bitcoin Up $18,000, But HODLer Profits Same As On April 1—Here’s Why Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Following the return above $100,000 in the previous week, Bitcoin has fought well to maintain its hold above the six-figure mark in recent days. While the flagship cryptocurrency retains its six-figure valuation, there’s still some momentum lacking in its price action, as spotlighted by last week’s performance. According to recent analysis, the sluggishness and apparent indecision in the BTC market can be attributed to significant selling pressure in the derivatives market. Interestingly, the latest on-chain data shows that the Bitcoin price still has room for additional growth. Options Market Data Shows Shift In Trader Sentiment In a May 16 post on the X platform, blockchain analytics firm Glassnode shared fresh on-chain insights suggesting a rise in bullish sentiment amongst Bitcoin options traders. The relevant indicator here is the 1-month 25 Delta Skew, which compares the implied volatility of bullish bets (call options) to the bearish bets (put options). Related Reading: Bitcoin Next Leg Up Loading? Analyst Says BTC Could Trade Sideways For Two Weeks When the 1-month 25 Delta Skew is in the positive territory, it implies that puts have higher implied volatility than calls. This trend is often associated with a bullish sentiment where traders are more worried about the asset price falling and are thus paying a premium for downside protection. On the other hand, a negative value for the 1-month 25 Delta Skew indicator signals that calls are more expensive than puts. This suggests that traders are more willing to bet on the price of Bitcoin moving higher than for protection against downside exposure. According to data from Glassnode, the 1-month 25 Delta Skew metric recently witnessed a drop to around -6.1%. This decline, the analytics platform noted, signifies that call options now carry higher implied volatility compared to put options. This options market trend means that there is now rising bullish sentiment amongst Bitcoin traders, as they lean more into betting on the BTC price rising. Glassnode also pointed out that this increasing bullish sentiment reflects a risk-on environment, where traders and investors are more willing to risk their funds. Historically, a negative 25 Delta Skew is a strong bullish sentiment indicator, as it usually precedes further appreciation of the Bitcoin price. Moreover, current options data not only supports BTC’s upward movement, but could also serve as a positive catalyst for more growth as additional long positions enter the market. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $102,800, reflecting an over 1% decline in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: JPMorgan Claims Bitcoin Has More Upside Potential Than Gold For Q2—Here’s The Breakdown Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
A week of steady closes above the psychologically potent $100,000 mark has sharpened Mike Novogratz’s conviction that Bitcoin is once again approaching escape velocity. Speaking on the latest “Galaxy Brains” podcast, the Galaxy Digital founder traced the market’s arc back to its late-March nadir—“Bitcoin went down and kissed right where it broke out: $74,000”—and argued that the subsequent recovery has rebuilt the structural bid that drives decisive trend inflections. “Bitcoin stops going down, it finds its buyers, and then it starts regaining momentum; and as soon as it gets momentum, momentum begets momentum,” he told host Alex Thorn. The Key For A New Bitcoin All-Time High That regained momentum, Novogratz contends, has already neutralised the post-tariff risk-off that rattled global assets. Gold “roofed” while Bitcoin “sold off,” yet the cryptocurrency’s rebound has outpaced every major risk proxy. ETF demand underscores the shift: “Net cumulative flows are at all-time highs,” noted Galaxy trader Bimnet Abbi in the same episode, adding that retail and corporate treasuries continue to absorb supply. MicroStrategy’s at-the-market issuance has been “buying at a record pace,” and fresh entrants—including the “SoftBank-Tether version of MicroStrategy,” a newly announced “David Bailey version,” and an expanding Japanese version Metaplanet—are repeating that playbook. Related Reading: Road To $320,000: Bitcoin Enters Trend Continuation, But $109,400 Must Hold Novogratz sees these structural bids compressing the window between resistance and fresh price discovery. “It feels right now like if we take out $107,000, we’re going to be $120,000 – $130,000,” he predicted. The level he emphasised—$107,000—marks both the post-ETF closing high and the neckline of March’s corrective range; a decisive breach would, in his framing, unleash a self-reinforcing scramble for exposure among under-positioned institutions. Macro inputs appear to support that thesis. Equities “have rallied almost 25% from the lows,” Abbi observed, while retail investors who “bought the dip … are now sitting in a ton of profits.” Against that backdrop, Bitcoin’s correlation to traditional risk has remained elastic, at times trading “like gold” when monetary hedges caught a bid, and at times outperforming high-beta equities during growth rotations. For Novogratz, that chameleon-like behaviour is evidence that Bitcoin is maturing into “a macro asset that is going to be on every desk of every macro trader”—a role that, in his view, will eventually see its market capitalisation surpass gold’s. Related Reading: Bitcoin Will Hit $1 Million By 2028 As Capital Controls Kick In: Top Expert Even so, he acknowledged the feedback loop that can magnify volatility. Short-term froth—“real sellers … that bought at forty decided they wanted to sell at a hundred,” he said—dragged the asset down to $74,000 after January’s euphoric peak, and further tariff-driven shocks could repeat the pattern. Yet the supply-absorption dynamic, buttressed by ETF creations and corporate treasuries, has thus far shortened each corrective phase, allowing spot prices to stabilise in six-figure territory within six weeks of the March trough. The technical and structural narratives therefore converge, Novogratz argues, at the $107,000 pivot. Should that barrier yield, he expects a swift repricing into the $120,000 to $130,000 range—an advance of roughly 20% that would reset the discussion around how quickly Bitcoin can challenge its inflation-adjusted gold equivalent. Until then, the market waits on a single catalytic print; as the Galaxy CEO put it, “as soon as we get a little bit of mojo … you’re going to be asking, ‘how did that happen?’” At press time, BTC traded at $104,054. Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com
In the last few weeks, the sentiment around Bitcoin has turned around as bulls have pushed it past the $100,000 mark once again. Despite the recent drawdown, the BTC price is still bullish, with the market sentiment sitting in greed. However, a new development on the Bitcoin weekly chart could signal an end to the recent bullishness, just like it did back in 2022. Sell Signal From 2022 Reappears Back in 2022, large sell-offs triggered by the crash of the FTX crypto exchange brought an abrupt end to the Bitcoin bull market and plunged investors into months of despair as prices lagged. During this time, a sell signal on the Bitcoin Weekly SuperTrend went off and the result was the over 60% decline of the Bitcoin price. Since then, this sell signal has remained dormant, but now it has returned. Related Reading: Road To $320,000: Bitcoin Enters Trend Continuation, But $109,400 Must Hold Crypto and CMT-Certified analyst Tony Spilotro took to X (formerly Twitter) to share a disturbing formation on the Bitcoin chart. The analyst explained that the sell signal on the weekly supertrend which had been dormant had finally returned. This signal was triggered just below the current all-time high of $109,000 and it seems the market is playing out accordingly. The analyst explained that while the BTCUSD pair continues to show strength, it could be a false strength. This is because the US dollar has weakened recently, which means that this could be the reason behind the strength shown by the BTC price. Additionally, Tony revealed that even the BTCEUR pair has not shown any crossover of the LMACD. Now, given that this rare bearish signal is flashing right now, it could have some serious implications for the crypto market. The first of these would be that this is the top of the market. In such a case, investors could be looking at another drawn-out bear market. When it comes to how low the price could go, going by the 2022 performance, a 60% crash would bring the Bitcoin price back below $50,000. If this happens, it would ravage the already struggling altcoin market, as well as pushing BTC below the cost price of Strategy’s 500,000 BTC stash, which opens another can of worms on its own. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Market: Pundit Reveals When To Sell Everything Bitcoin Needs To Maintain Range Breakout In another post, Tony explained what needs to happen for the current uptrend to be sustained. He pointed out that range breakouts are only completed in a strong, large weekly candle. In addition, the breakout then needs to close out above the upper Bollinger Band for confirmation. Presently, the BTC price is yet to close out above the upper Bollinger Band, which is sitting at $108,507. However, with two weeks still left to go in the month of May, bulls still have time to complete it before the month closes out. Otherwise, the current breakout could fail, and a reversal could push BTC further down. “Bulls want to see this within two weeks, leading to a strong May close,” Tony Spilotro said. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
After reclaiming the crucial $100,000, Bitcoin (BTC) is testing its recently recovered levels as support, with some analysts suggesting that the price will see a short-term sideways move before breaking out of its key resistance. Related Reading: Avalanche (AVAX) Eyes 30% Rally Amid Cup-And-Handle Pattern Breakout BTC’s Next Key Levels Over the past month, Bitcoin has seen a massive performance, recovering more than 23% from the $84,000 mark. The flagship crypto has reclaimed the $100,000 barrier, lost during the February pullback, and rallied to a three-month high of $105,819. Amid the market recovery, BTC has re-entered its post-US elections range, between the $92,000 and $106,000 levels, trading just 4.4% below its January all-time high (ATH). However, the massive rally seems to have slowed after nearing the range’s upper level, which could momentarily halt its next leg up. This week, Bitcoin has ranged between $101,500-$105,000, taking out most of the liquidation clusters within the weekly range lows. Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that now the cryptocurrency is “pretty far away from any large liquidity clusters.” He explained that BTC’s price hasn’t traded in the range’s high for a significant period, and few new positions were built around this area “after the initial squeeze of shorts.” As such, the main levels to look out for are the range’s highs above the $106,000 resistance, and the range’s low around the $93,000 support, where the recent breakout occurred. Bitcoin To Trade Sideways For Two Weeks? Analyst The Cryptonomist considers that BTC’s price action is “very simple from here,” as the flagship crypto moves within a one-month rising wedge pattern. If Bitcoin remains inside the formation, it could surge to the $110,000-$112,000 levels. However, if Bitcoin falls below the lower boundary, around $100,000, it could lose the key support and attempt to fill the CME Gap around the $92,000 before a new ATH rally. Meanwhile, market watcher Ted Pillows highlighted Bitcoin’s correlation with the Global M2 money supply. The analyst noted that the cryptocurrency’s price action has resembled the Global M2 supply chart for the past several months, including the recent pump above $100,000. Related Reading: Ethereum Prepares For $2,850 Rally, But Analysts Warn Of Potential Dip To These Levels Now the chart suggests a consolidation period, which could see Bitcoin move sideways for one to two weeks, if it continues to follow the Global M2 supply path. “Once that is over, BTC’s next leg up will start, which will push it above $120K,” he affirmed. Additionally, Ted pointed out BTC’s Wyckoff accumulation is in the final phase, with some consolidation happening above the $100,000 support, “which is a good sign.” Concluding that, with liquidity entering again, the next leg up “will soon start.” As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $104,916, a 0.5% decline in the daily timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s price action in the past 24 hours has seen it slowly retracing from the $104,000 zone it started the week at. This range has become particularly significant as Bitcoin continues to flirt with levels last seen during its recent push toward new all-time highs. Bitcoin’s price movements over the past two days have tightened, and the candlestick behavior on the weekly chart has led to a doji formation on the weekly candlestick timeframe, an indicator of indecision. Interestingly, a technical analysis from crypto analyst Tony “The Bull” Severino has highlighted critical levels to watch that will determine whether the Bitcoin price is turning bearish or still bullish. Mixed Signals: Why the Current Resistance Zone Is Critical Crypto analyst Tony “The Bull” Severino shared a chart and in-depth breakdown on the social media platform X, pointing to horizontal support and resistance levels as the most important technical indicators in his view. As shown on his Bitcoin weekly chart, the leading cryptocurrency is now pressing against a well-defined resistance zone just below its all-time high, marked clearly in red. The proximity of this level to its all-time high means it could act as a ceiling, making it an important area to watch for either a breakout or a reversal. Related Reading: What’s Driving The Bitcoin Price Recovery Above $100,000 And Is It Sustainable? Tony outlines three possible interpretations for the current market structure around the $108,000 resistance level. The bullish case hinges on Bitcoin consolidating under resistance, a pattern often followed by upward continuation. The neutral case is that Bitcoin could be forming a broad trading range, in which case it makes sense to short the market at resistance while buying near support. On the bearish side, the presence of a doji candlestick at this key level may be a sign of fading momentum and an early signal of a price reversal. His trading strategy reflects this uncertainty. He has placed short positions within the red resistance zone, with a stop loss just above the all-time high. At the same time, he has set a stop buy order in the green breakout zone above the all-time high, ready to switch long should the Bitcoin price convincingly break through resistance. Conditions For A Bullish Breakout Are Not Yet Fulfilled Although Tony noted that the broader investment market, including altcoins and the stock market, looks strong, he cautioned that this does not guarantee a bullish breakout for Bitcoin. For confirmation, a bullish breakout must be preceded by aligning various technical indicators. These include a breakout with substantial trading volume, an RSI reading above 70 on the weekly chart, and a weekly close above the upper Bollinger Band. Related Reading: ‘The Big Short’ Coming For Bitcoin? Why BTC Will Clear $110,000 At the moment, however, the Bitcoin CME Futures chart has failed to move past 70 on the daily RSI twice, and trading volume is in decline. According to CoinMarketCap, the trading volume of Bitcoin is $44.33 billion in the past 24 hours, a 11.40% reduction from the previous 24 hours. These are early warning signs that a breakout attempt may lack the strength needed for sustainability. Nonetheless, the conditions are still very mixed and starting to lean more bullish than bearish. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $102,352, down by 1.31% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
In his latest essay, Arthur Hayes, co-founder and CIO of Maelstrom, draws a stark parallel between America’s growing economic imbalances and its unsustainable reliance on foreign capital—and argues that capital controls, not tariffs, are the only politically viable solution to rebalance the system. In what he dubs the “Boiling Frog Theory,” Hayes foresees a slow, stealthy imposition of financial restrictions on foreign investors that will ultimately accelerate Bitcoin’s rise to $1 million by 2028. Titled Fatty Fatty Boom Boom, the essay begins with a provocative metaphor: America’s bloated financial system is likened to the obesity crisis—a pathology enabled by cheap processed inputs and pharmaceutical band-aids that preserve a diseased status quo. “The American economy was hijacked by printed money,” Hayes writes, tracing the origin of US imbalances back to the Federal Reserve’s inception in 1913 and the permanent shift away from natural business cycles to a regime of endless stimulus. Why Capital Control’s Could Drive Bitcoin To $1 Million Tariffs, according to Hayes, are politically and structurally impotent. Even under Trump, their application will be diluted through bilateral carve-outs and geopolitical concessions, allowing countries like Vietnam and Mexico to act as arbitrage hubs. “Without one tariff for all, there will always be a country or countries that act as trans-shipment arbitrage points,” he explains, noting that this same dynamic lets China skirt semiconductor restrictions via third-party intermediaries. Related Reading: Bitcoin Treasury Firms Are This Cycle’s Bubble, Experts Warn Instead, Hayes sees capital controls—specifically taxes on foreign ownership of US financial assets—as the only strategy with both economic bite and political payoff. He proposes a 2% annual tax on foreign-held stocks, bonds, and property, totaling approximately $33 trillion. Such a levy could eliminate federal income taxes for the bottom 90% of Americans, making it a “winning political strategy” for Team Trump. “Either foreign capital stays, pays the tax, and revenue is used to eliminate income taxes… or foreign capital leaves, and American manufacturing grows,” Hayes argues. But if capital leaves, who replaces it? Hayes is blunt: the US will turn to the printing press. “Remember that 4/4 kick drum, the Brrr button. Y’all know what the answer is,” he quips, referring to the return of quantitative easing, the suspension of QT, treasury buybacks, and loosened regulatory constraints like the supplemental leverage ratio. Hayes believes the Fed, despite rhetorical resistance, is already enabling this stealth monetization by targeting long-duration treasury bonds for QE. “Powell’s ass is sat firmly in the cuck chair, and he ain’t leaving. Now pass the lube,” he writes, in typical Hayes fashion. The ultimate effect of this capital exodus and ensuing monetary response, he contends, will be the devaluation of US treasuries in real terms and the reallocation of global capital into stateless, censorship-resistant assets like Bitcoin. Unlike gold, which requires intermediaries to function in the digital realm, Bitcoin is a native digital bearer asset that can operate outside state-controlled financial infrastructure. “Bitcoin is the perfect and only lifeboat for global capital that must leave America and elsewhere,” he asserts. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Is Far From Over—Top Expert Predicts Surge To $150,000 Hayes notes that even the Trump administration appears ideologically aligned with Bitcoin and gold, pointing to the removal of tariffs on gold and the regulatory de-escalation around crypto. With these assets potentially being elevated to reserve status, Bitcoin is poised to absorb capital fleeing dollar-denominated instruments. In his forecast, Hayes considers the migration of even 10% of foreign-held US portfolio assets—$3.3 trillion—into Bitcoin. At current market depth, that would trigger a supply shock far beyond a simple 10x price move. “If 10x the amount of capital attempted to squeeze into the market, it would lead to a much greater than a 10x rise in price,” he predicts, citing the inelastic supply and long-term holders unwilling to sell. The result? A path to $1 million per Bitcoin by the 2028 US presidential election. Hayes also reveals that Maelstrom went “maximum long” during the early April financial turmoil and is now rotating into “quality altcoins”, which he believes offer real services and return profits to token holders. Still, he warns of tactical volatility, noting that Trump’s strategy is fluid and opposition within the administration remains. But for Hayes, the trajectory is clear. Capital controls are no longer fringe theory—they are becoming inevitable policy. And Bitcoin, he concludes, is the only asset positioned to benefit from the collapse of Pax Americana’s financial plumbing. At press time, BTC traded at $102,377. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com