THE LATEST CRYPTO NEWS

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently holding below the key $70,000 level. Still, a new report from data and research firm Ecoinometrics suggests that the market may not be building a base for recovery.  Instead, the firm argues that the cryptocurrency remains vulnerable to another downward move, driven by three overlapping forces: weakening equity momentum, structural changes in Bitcoin’s volatility profile, and a Federal Reserve (Fed) that is steady but not supportive. Structural Headwinds For Bitcoin According to the report, Bitcoin no longer trades in isolation. It has become increasingly linked to equity markets, capital flows, and broader macroeconomic conditions. At the moment, that linkage is not working in its favor.  Bitcoin is already showing signs of weakness, equity markets are losing steam, and the Federal Reserve is maintaining a neutral stance that offers little additional liquidity support. Together, those factors keep downside risks elevated. Related Reading: ‘Sell Bitcoin Now,’ Peter Schiff Warns, Predicts $20,000 Target On Breakdown While Bitcoin has attempted to stabilize in recent weeks, Ecoinometrics cautions that this does not resemble a clear bottoming pattern. Rather, it looks more like a pause within an ongoing bear phase.  Structural headwinds are already in place, as highlighted by the firm, including continued outflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and a broader “risk-off” environment in financial markets. The report noted that Bitcoin is trading below its long-term trend, with its 200-day moving average (currently above $100,000) turning downward and rallies repeatedly failing beneath that level — a classic sign of a bearish structure.  By contrast, the Nasdaq 100 has stalled for roughly three months, but its 200-day moving average is still rising. That suggests equities are slowing but have not yet entered a confirmed structural downturn. The distinction is important. When Bitcoin weakens on its own, declines can unfold gradually. However, history shows that when equities roll over decisively, Bitcoin tends to fall sharply alongside them.  Lower Volatility, Higher Correlation Beyond price action, the firm highlights a deeper structural shift in Bitcoin’s behavior: a marked compression in volatility. In prior cycles, 12-month realized volatility surged dramatically during both bull markets and subsequent crashes.  This time, even after a full bear-bull-bear sequence since 2022, volatility has not returned to those previous extremes. In fact, peak volatility in the current cycle has been materially lower.  This change reflects who is driving demand. ETF flows now play a dominant role in shaping trends. These flows are typically larger, steadier, and more systematic than the retail-driven surges that characterized earlier cycles.  Bitcoin, in other words, has become embedded within institutional portfolios, often sitting alongside technology and growth stocks. That shift brings advantages, including lower volatility and more predictable flow patterns. It may also strengthen Bitcoin’s long-term durability.  However, it comes with a trade-off: deeper sensitivity to equity market drawdowns. Ecoinometrics asserts that as BTC becomes more integrated into the broader risk-on complex, it behaves more like a component of that system rather than a detached speculative asset. Downside Risks Grow On the policy front, Ecoinometrics suggests the Fed’s posture remains largely unchanged: inflation has improved but is not fully contained, and the labor market remains resilient.  Related Reading: House Democrats Urge Treasury Probe Into Trump Family’s Crypto Venture As a result, rate cuts are not urgent, and rate hikes are not imminent. The communications index sits well below the tightening peak seen in 2022 and far above the crisis-level dovishness of 2020, placing current policy in the middle ground. For Bitcoin, that steady stance removes the risk of a sudden policy shock, but it does not provide a tailwind. The firm said in a fragile market, stability may be preferable to tightening, yet it offers little support if risk assets begin to slide. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

The industry’s largest cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), are enduring one of their most difficult openings to a year on record, according to a recent analysis by Fortune, with both digital assets trading sharply below their previous peaks. Bitcoin is currently down roughly 46% from its all-time high, while Ethereum has fallen about 60% from its record level. The steep declines mark what the publication describes as historically poor year-to-date performances for the assets.  Bitcoin, Ethereum Lag While S&P 500, Gold Post Gains While Bitcoin and Ethereum, along with broader crypto prices, have often moved in tandem with equities in recent years, that relationship has weakened over the past two months. Since January, major US stock indices have edged higher.  The S&P 500 has gained approximately 0.4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has climbed 2.3%. Precious metals have also performed strongly. Gold has surged about 17% since the start of the year, while silver has advanced roughly 14%, even after experiencing a brief drop several weeks ago. Related Reading: ‘Sell Bitcoin Now,’ Peter Schiff Warns, Predicts $20,000 Target On Breakdown The disconnect between cryptocurrencies and broader market gains has prompted some industry observers to declare the arrival of another “Crypto Winter.”  “We’re certainly in a Crypto Winter,” said Danny Nelson, a research analyst at crypto asset manager Bitwise. He pointed to investor behavior as evidence of deteriorating sentiment. “You can tell by how investors react to good news,” Nelson said. “They don’t.” ‘We’re Really Close To The End’ Despite the current pullback and the increased challenges for prices seen since the October 10 liquidation event, Nelson argues that the underlying foundation of the industry is strengthening.  “Crypto’s reality is getting stronger,” he said, adding that the structural changes underway are likely to outlast the current downturn.  Related Reading: House Democrats Urge Treasury Probe Into Trump Family’s Crypto Venture Similar sentiments have been expressed by Tom Lee, cofounder of research firm Fundstrat and a long-time supporter of Ethereum. In a recent interview, Lee suggested the market may be nearing a turning point, stating, “We’re really close to the end.” Whether the latest slump proves to be a temporary correction or a deeper cycle shift remains uncertain. For now, however, the data underscores a challenging start to the year for the cryptocurrency market, even as other asset classes continue to surge. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $67,595, which is a slight 1% increase compared to Thursday’s prices. Ethereum is trading at around $1,968, with similar gains over the past 24 hours.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin’s slide into the $60,000–$70,000 zone has lit up the usual “bottom” dashboards: extreme fear, washed-out positioning, and a cluster of indicators many traders treat as capitulation signals. But CryptoQuant contributor Mignolet says the market is missing the only thing that ultimately matters: a visible bid from dominant buyers. “What I emphasized in the $80K–$90K range still remains the same,” he wrote on Feb. 18. “Many indicators that market participants follow are pointing to a bottom and extreme fear. However, we do not see dominant players (whales) actually using this situation.” Mignolet’s core argument is simple: a bottom is not a sentiment reading, it’s an event and he doesn’t see the kind of forced absorption that typically marks a durable turn. “No matter how many indicators suggest a bottom, if there is no real buying force stepping in, we cannot know where the true bottom will be,” he said. “That is why I do not make price predictions lightly.” Related Reading: Revealed: The Biggest Bitcoin Holders Of 2026, According To Arkham Data He contrasted the current tape with the 2024 bull cycle, when fear could still dominate headlines even as large allocators quietly took the other side. In that period, he argues, the market had a measurable backstop: institutional demand showing up through US spot Bitcoin ETFs, specifically BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC, which “clearly absorbed the selling pressure.” The “most important point,” in his framing, is that the same mechanics aren’t showing up now. Mignolet says the accumulation pattern FBTC sustained for roughly a year has “already broken down,” and IBIT, previously described as a buffer during heavy sell pressure, is “now trending downward, unlike last year.” That shift is why he keeps the bottom call “on ice,” even if price ultimately holds the current region. In his view, Bitcoin remains in a phase where traders should “be cautious about further shocks,” and even a successful defense would likely require time before it can be treated as confirmed. When Everyone Reads The Same Bitcoin Data Beyond flow, Mignolet is also warning about a structural change in how market narratives form. He argues the proliferation of on-chain analytics has made the space more information-dense, but not necessarily more insightful and in some cases, more hazardous. Related Reading: Bitcoin Doesn’t Get A Macro ‘Bailout’ This Time: Alden Warns Of Gradual QE “The problem is that everyone looks at the same data and often reaches similar conclusions,” he wrote. “In many cases, even the people producing the data do not fully understand it. When information becomes too common, it pushes expectations in one direction.” He describes today’s well-packaged on-chain dashboards as “clean and convincing, almost like an answer sheet,” which can harden conviction precisely when flexibility is required. The downstream risk, he suggests, is that widespread agreement around “obvious” bottoms can keep investors anchored through deeper drawdowns or longer grind periods. In the near term, Mignolet’s base case is not a clean trend reversal but “sideways movement without a clear direction,” with enough volatility to create opportunities for short-term traders. For his own positioning, he described the period as “waiting,” stepping back to watch “liquidity flows, supply and demand conditions, and overall market sentiment,” then “reset” his framework. The bigger picture, he says, is still bearish and potentially more drawn out than he expected last year. His closing warning is that this down cycle is “unlikely to end lightly,” with the plausible outcomes being a larger-than-expected drop, a longer-than-expected sideways phase, or both. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $67,889. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s price action is struggling with bearish corrections, repeatedly failing to close daily trading sessions above $70,000. As it stands, Bitcoin is now moving in a tight range below $70,000, and crypto analysts are undecided on its next direction. Some see the current structure as a base for another push higher, but others warn that any bounce could invite new selling. Crypto analyst Sherlock is among the cautious voices, arguing on X that a rally to between $72,000 and $76,000 may not be a recovery but a kill zone for Bitcoin bulls. The $76,000 Breakeven Wall Crypto analyst Sherlock is of the notion that any Bitcoin price recovery to $76,000 from here might not actually be a good thing. Sherlock’s argument is based on the Bitcoin holdings of Strategy. At the time of writing, the company holds 714,644 BTC at an average cost basis of $76,052. That stash represents roughly 3.4% of the total Bitcoin supply that will ever exist.  Related Reading: Extreme Bitcoin Shorts Could Predict A Bottom, Here’s The Significance Now that Bitcoin is trading around $68,000, Strategy’s position is significantly underwater, and the company is sitting at an estimated unrealized loss of about $5.7 billion at current prices. In the analyst’s view, every push to the $74,000 to $76,000 range brings this large concentration of supply closer to breakeven. Breakeven levels often act as selling zones. Based on that perspective, the $76,000 area could be risky because it brings Strategy’s position back to its average entry price, and many large holders might consider reducing exposure. That said, there is no indication that Strategy plans to sell. The company has repeatedly stated that it has no intention of offloading its Bitcoin and has even emphasized that its balance sheet could withstand a severe downturn, including a scenario where the Bitcoin price drops below $10,000. ETF Pressure And Bitcoin Cost Basis Sherlock also pointed to Spot Bitcoin ETFs as another source of pressure that might lead to a bull trap. As it stands, about 1.28 million BTC are currently held in these funds, with an estimated average entry price between $84,000 and $90,000. Related Reading: Could A Bitcoin Price Crash Below $10,000 Wipe Out Strategy? Saylor Shares What To Expect Since late 2025, these ETFs have recorded more than $6 billion in net outflows, and the Bitcoin price might face another pressure even if it reaches the average entry price. He also noted that about 63% of invested Bitcoin wealth has a cost basis above $88,000, meaning a large share of buyers in 2025 are sitting on losses, and a rally to their entry levels could also be a bull trap. Therefore, a climb into the $72,000 to $76,000 range could be a bull trap. If it doesn’t, then the next trap could be around $88,000. That said, if every breakeven level triggered selling, then Bitcoin might never form a bottom. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $66,980. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The Bitcoin’s recent pullback may look concerning on the surface, but according to Brian Armstrong, the move has more to do with the market psychology than with any deterioration in fundamentals. After a period of strong performance, shifting sentiment and broader market uncertainty are playing a larger role in BTC’s price movement than structural weaknesses within the network or its long-term value proposition. Why Bitcoin’s Core Strengths Remain Intact A crypto expert known as Walter Bloomberg on X has revealed that the Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong believes Bitcoin’s recent slide is temporary and is driven primarily by market psychology rather than weakening fundamentals.  Related Reading: Standard Chartered Lowers Bitcoin Forecast: Predicts Price Dive To $50,000 Before Rebound Speaking to the Consumer News and Business Channel (CNBC) at the World Liberty Forum in Florida, Armstrong pushed back against the speculation linking the decline to potential Federal Reserve (Fed) leadership changes or emerging risks such as quantum computing. Instead, Armstrong explained that the move reflects investors locking in profits and reacting to what they believe others are thinking. He described the downturn as likely temporary, noting that Coinbase is repurchasing shares and buying more BTC at a lower price. Armstrong emphasized that crypto market cycles are normal, reiterating that BTC remains the best-performing asset of the past decade and that the company continues to focus on long-term growth. Is This The Early Stage Of Another Supply Shock? Bitcoin whales have accumulated more than 200,000 BTC despite the ongoing selling pressure. Analyst Darkfost highlighted that while whale inflows to exchanges have increased recently, their overall holdings have continued to grow. Thus, inflows typically reflect short-term behaviour and can generate immediate selling pressure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales Flood Binance As Correction Deepens: On-Chain Data Shows The chart below provides a medium-term perspective by tracking the evolution of the whale-held supply on a monthly average basis. After a sharp drop in this average to nearly -7% on December 15, whale behaviour appears to have shifted over the past month, with their holdings increasing by 3.4%. During this period, the BTC supply by whales grew from 2.9 million BTC to over 3.1 million BTC, representing an accumulation of more than 200,000 BTC. Meanwhile, the last time whale accumulation of this magnitude occurred was during the April 2025 market correction. At that time, this wave of accumulation had helped absorb selling pressure and supported the rally that pushed BTC from $76,000 to $126,000. However, with BTC still consolidating around 46% below its recent all-time high, the current level may be viewed as an attractive accumulation zone. Darkfost noted that it is not surprising to see some whales taking advantage of this opportunity. As selling pressure remains significant, this whale demand may not yet be sufficient on its own to fully counterbalance the broader market. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Quantum computing has become the latest all-purpose explanation for Bitcoin’s recent drawdown, but NYDIG says the numbers don’t back the narrative. In a Feb. 17 research note, NYDIG research head Greg Cipolaro argues that “quantum fears” are loud, but not a primary driver of the sell-off when you look at search behavior, cross-asset correlations, and broader risk positioning. Quantum Panic Didn’t Sink Bitcoin NYDIG frames “Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computers” as the theoretical endgame risk investors keep circling. The problem is that market behavior doesn’t look like a repricing of an imminent existential threat. First, Cipolaro points to Google Trends. Search interest for “quantum computing bitcoin” did rise, he wrote, but the timing matters. “Search interest for ‘quantum computing bitcoin’ has risen, but notably this occurred alongside bitcoin’s rally to new all-time highs, not ahead of sustained weakness,” the note said. “In other words, heightened searches about quantum risk coincided with price strength rather than weakness. If the market were repricing bitcoin on an imminent technological threat, we would expect search intensity to lead or amplify downside risk, not accompany a period of gains.” Related Reading: Is Jane Street Manipulating Bitcoin? The Viral Theory Explained Second, NYDIG looks at how Bitcoin traded versus publicly listed quantum computing equities, specifically IONQ, QBTS, RGTI, and QUBT. If investors were rotating out of Bitcoin because quantum advances were “catching up,” you would expect quantum-linked stocks to diverge positively as Bitcoin falls. NYDIG says it saw the opposite. Bitcoin was positively correlated with those equities, and those correlations strengthened during the drawdown, suggesting a shared driver rather than a direct quantum-to-Bitcoin causality. NYDIG’s conclusion is blunt on that point. “The data provides no evidence that quantum computing is the proximate cause of bitcoin’s weakness, even if it is the dominant risk narrative at the moment,” Cipolaro wrote. “The more plausible explanation is a broader macro repricing of risk across long-duration, expectation-driven assets. Bitcoin’s recent drawdown appears more consistent with shifts in overall risk appetite than with any discrete technological catalyst.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Bearish Momentum Losing Steam? Analyst Flags Key Metric The mechanism NYDIG highlights is familiar to anyone watching liquidity regimes. Quantum computing firms, it argues, are long-duration, expectation-driven assets with minimal revenues and high EV/revenue multiples. Bitcoin, while structurally different, often trades as a long-duration bet on future adoption and monetary dynamics. When risk appetite contracts, both can get hit together. Meanwhile, NYDIG flags a divergence in derivatives markets that, in its view, better captures the current tape than quantum headlines. The 1-month annualized basis on CME has “persistently traded above” Deribit, which NYDIG uses as a proxy for onshore US institutional positioning versus offshore positioning. Structurally higher CME basis implies US desks have remained more constructive, while the sharper decline in Deribit’s 1-month basis points to rising caution offshore and reduced appetite for leveraged long exposure. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $66,886. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Blockchain analytics platform Arkham has released a new report identifying the largest known Bitcoin (BTC) holders at the start of 2026, offering a detailed snapshot of how the cryptocurrency is distributed across individuals, corporations, governments, and financial institutions. Top Bitcoin Holders Looking across major ownership categories, Arkham’s verified on‑chain data shows that the largest individual holder remains Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. Nakamoto’s wallets contain 1,096,358 BTC, valued at approximately $75 billion, representing 5.5% of the total supply. Among cryptocurrency exchanges, Coinbase ranks first. The digital asset platform holds 993,069 BTC worth roughly $68 billion, accounting for about 5% of the circulating supply.  Related Reading: Macro Wobbles May Send Bitcoin Back To The $50,000s, Industry CEO Claims Binance, Robinhood, and Upbit also rank among the largest cryptocurrency exchange holders, with approximately 660,000 BTC, 184,000 BTC, and 180,000 BTC, respectively.  In the US sport Bitcoin exchange‑traded fund sector (ETF), BlackRock stands out as the largest ETF issuer by Bitcoin holdings, with 761,801 BTC valued at about $52 billion, equivalent to 3.8% of supply.  Asset manager and also crypto exchange-traded fund issuer Grayscale currently holds 218,000 BTC valued at around $20 billion, with all of its assets custodied by crypto exchange Coinbase. Strategy Leads Corporate BTC Race Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, remains the largest public corporate holder. The company has accumulated Bitcoin steadily since August 2020, making purchases every few weeks.  Its total holdings now stand at 714,644 BTC, worth approximately $54.3 billion. Of that amount, 415,230 BTC are directly confirmed on‑chain, valued at $28 billion, representing 2.1% of supply, while the broader total equates to roughly 3.5%. Other public companies are also building significant reserves. MARA, a North American Bitcoin mining firm, operates nine mining facilities and averaged 22.7 BTC mined per day in September 2025.  Arkham data shows MARA controls 13,000 BTC on‑chain, valued at about $864 million, though the company reports a treasury reserve of 53,200 BTC.  The Biggest Private And Government Holders Private companies also command sizable Bitcoin positions. Tether leads this group with 96,369 BTC valued at $6.5 billion, representing 0.48% of total supply. SpaceX, founded by Elon Musk, holds 8,285 BTC, according to Arkham’s verified data.  Additionally, the Bitcoin Treasuries website lists Block.one as the largest private corporate holder with 164,000 BTC. However, Arkham notes that Block.one’s holdings cannot be independently verified on‑chain.  Related Reading: $274 Billion In Potential Bitcoin Selling Could Hit Markets, Expert Says Government holdings form another key category. Arkham’s data identifies the United States government as the largest verified state holder, with 328,372 BTC worth approximately $22 billion, representing 1.64% of the total supply.  The United Arab Emirates is also emerging as a major player. Arkham identified significant mining activity in the Gulf state, with 6,800 BTC attributed to operations conducted by Citadel, a public mining firm majority‑owned by the UAE Royal Group through International Holding Company (IHC). At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at around $66,299. It registered losses of 2% and 1.2% in the 24-hour and seven-day time frames, respectively. This has prevented the token from surpassing the nearest resistance wall at $70,000.   Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin investors hoping for a familiar macro rescue may be reading the room wrong. In an interview with Coin Stories host Nathalie Brunell, macro analyst Lyn Alden argued that the next policy turn is more likely to resemble a slow balance-sheet creep than the kind of “nuclear print” that has historically juiced risk assets, leaving bitcoin to compete largely on its own fundamentals and narrative pull. Alden framed the current cycle as unusually underwhelming, not just in price terms but in participation. She noted that sentiment “is worse than 2022,” and attributed the malaise to a missing retail bid, a lack of “alt season,” and a broader crypto market that “kind of run out of narratives.” Bitcoin, she said, topped out at $126,000, below her own bar for a satisfying cycle. “Sometimes they give their time frames so we can just see if it hits that time frame or not,” Alden said, pushing back on the reflexive call that every drawdown forces the Fed’s hand. “Every kind of down tick in stocks or every kind of down tick they say well the […] we’re going to have to print soon. But really the Fed only cares mainly about the liquidity of the treasury market and the interbank lending market […] even stocks going down 10, 20, 30% is not really going to be a catalyst.” Related Reading: Is Jane Street Manipulating Bitcoin? The Viral Theory Explained Brunell pointed to comments she said came from Fed Chair Jerome Powell about “slowly” expanding the balance sheet, with purchases starting around $40 billion in short-end Treasury bills, far from the trillions some bitcoin bulls anchor on. Alden’s response was blunt: the plumbing doesn’t demand a shock-and-awe response right now. “Mainly because the conditions are not such that they would need a big print in the near future,” she said. “There are scenarios that can absolutely result in a big print or a nuclear print […] but when you kind of run the numbers of how much debt is coming out, how levered or unlevered banks are, they just don’t really need a lot of printing. A little printing gets them a long way.” In Alden’s telling, QE1-scale interventions were tied to a very specific setup: an overlevered banking system with low cash ratios and acute private-sector balance sheet stress. Today, she argued, bank cash ratios are “still pretty high,” and absent a COVID-scale disruption or an escalation in war or “financial war”, the base case is incrementalism. Bitcoin Still Has To Win Attention That matters because, in Alden’s framework, gradual balance-sheet expansion is supportive but not decisive for bitcoin. The era where “micro doesn’t matter at all” is reserved for true emergency stimulus and she doesn’t see that as the near-term setup. “Not a ton, I think,” Alden said when asked what gradual QE means for bitcoin. “It’s supportive […] but Bitcoin still has to compete on its own merits for investor attention. So, you know, basically it has to compete with Nvidia […] with everything out there that people can own.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Capitulation Or Buy Zone? What On-Chain Data Shows Right Now She tied the muted cycle to “mediocre” topline demand and a capital-market landscape where AI-linked equities and even precious metals have offered competition for mindshare. Sovereigns “didn’t really show up,” she said, and retail largely stayed sidelined, leaving “the corporate institutional side” and higher-net-worth brokerage buyers, aided by ETFs, as the main marginal bid. Alden also downplayed the idea that derivatives and ETFs are the chief culprit behind a capped upside, even if they can “inflate” synthetic supply for a time. The bigger issue, she argued, is simply that the demand impulse hasn’t been strong enough to overwhelm a now-larger, more liquid market. Looking forward, Alden expects bottoms to form as “fast money gets out” and coins rotate to “strongly held hands,” with price more likely to grind than V-recover. On the upside, she pointed to a potential setup where AI trades eventually peak, bitcoin sits “cheap for a while” in tight hands, and only “a marginal amount of new demand” is needed to restart reflexivity, possibly alongside continued buying from bitcoin treasury companies. For now, her core warning is that this cycle may not be saved by policy theatrics. If bitcoin is going to reassert itself, Alden suggested, it will be less about waiting for a macro bailout and more about whether enough investors still want “self-custodial […] undebasable savings,” even when other assets are stealing the spotlight. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $67,556. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin continues to trade within a tight range, but beneath the surface, structural weakness is becoming increasingly evident. With price holding below the key $72,000 level, now acting as resistance, the broader technical outlook remains fragile, and any short-term consolidation may simply be masking underlying downside risk. Bitcoin Enters Clear Corrective Phase Bitcoin has entered a clear corrective phase after peaking in the $120,000–$125,000 region. Crypto analyst Alejandro₿TC notes that the weekly structure has broken to the downside, with the latest leg unfolding impulsively, a sign that momentum currently favors sellers rather than buyers. Related Reading: Bitcoin Ready To Bounce Again? The Major Accumulation Trend You Should Be Aware Of The key level to watch is the $72,000–$74,000 zone. Previously acting as strong support, this area has now been lost and flipped into resistance. As long as Bitcoin continues to close below this range on the weekly timeframe, any upward movement should be viewed as a corrective bounce rather than confirmation of a sustained reversal. On the downside, the $50,000–$52,000 region stands out as the primary magnet. This zone represents a significant weekly demand area and the base of the prior impulsive rally. If bearish pressure persists, it becomes the most logical target for a deeper retracement. The upcoming monthly close in 11 days could be decisive. A close below $72,000 would confirm the breakdown and increase the probability of further downside. Structurally, the market remains weak beneath that level, while a decisive reclaim above $74,000 would mark the first meaningful signal that strength is returning. Compression Intensifies Near $68,000 With volatility compressing as price trades within an increasingly narrow band, Bitcoin continues to coil tightly around the $67,000–$68,000 region. The lack of decisive movement in either direction suggests that the market is building energy for a larger expansion move.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Eyes Untapped Liquidity: $64,000 Support Could Be Next Target According to Columbus, liquidity continues to build above the $70,000 level, and notable bids remain layered between $64,000 and $66,000. With liquidity stacked on both sides, the market is effectively squeezed between opposing forces, waiting for a catalyst. The longer Bitcoin remains trapped inside this tightening structure, the more aggressive the eventual breakout tends to be. Compression phases like this typically end with strong displacement, as one side of the market is forced to unwind positions.  From here, sustained acceptance above the $69,500–$70,000 area would likely open the door for momentum toward heavier liquidity zones overhead. On the other hand, failure to reclaim that threshold keeps downside probes into the mid-$60,000s firmly in play, especially if bids begin to thin out under pressure. The next decisive move will likely be driven by which side of liquidity gets targeted first. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The World Liberty Forum held this week at Mar‑a‑Lago featured remarks from President Donald Trump’s sons, Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., who used the event to reaffirm their strong support for Bitcoin (BTC) and repeat their long‑standing $1 million price projection for the cryptocurrency. ‘Never Been More Bullish On Bitcoin’ Speaking on Wednesday, Eric Trump described himself as “a huge proponent of Bitcoin” and said he has never felt more optimistic about the asset’s future. “I’ve never been more bullish on bitcoin in my life,” he said, arguing that the digital currency has the potential to eventually reach $1 million per coin. Related Reading: Macro Wobbles May Send Bitcoin Back To The $50,000s, Industry CEO Claims However, amid falling Bitcoin prices, Eric acknowledged the asset’s volatility and characterized price swings as typical for an emerging technology with significant growth potential. In his view, Bitcoin’s upside contrasts sharply with traditional fixed‑income investments such as municipal bonds or US Treasuries (T-Bills), which generally offer lower yields. At the same time, Donald Trump Jr. offered sharp criticism of the traditional banking system, calling it a “Ponzi scheme” and arguing that the family’s move into crypto was not driven by trend‑chasing but by necessity.  Trump Brothers Accuse Banks Of Political ‘Debanking’ During an interview with CNBC at the forum, Donald Trump Jr. said his family turned to digital assets after banks closed “hundreds of accounts” belonging to the Trump Organization in early 2021. “You know, we didn’t get into crypto because we were on the leading edge,” Trump Jr. said. “We got into it out of necessity. They basically forced us into it.”  The brothers attributed the account closures to the political fallout following the January 6, 2021, riot at the US Capitol, when supporters of their father stormed the building while contesting the 2020 presidential election results.  Related Reading: $274 Billion In Potential Bitcoin Selling Could Hit Markets, Expert Says They also claimed that banks had “debanked” other smaller clients over their conservative political views. Eric Trump said their crypto initiative, World Liberty Financial, is part of a broader effort to reshape the financial system.  “We’re trying to modernize finance,” he said, adding that the family felt ostracized by mainstream institutions during that period. “We’re the most canceled people in the world in 2020, 2021,” he said. As of this writing, Bitcoin is still consolidating at approximately $66,258. This represents a 50% difference from the current trading prices and the all-time high of $126,000, which was reached last October.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

A fresh round of Bitcoin market-manipulation chatter is ricocheting through crypto X after Jane Street added 7,105,206 shares of BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, in Q4 2025, bringing its reported position to 20,315,780 shares. Speculators tie this disclosure to a long-running rumor about a daily “10AM” sell program. Is Jane Street Manipulating The Bitcoin Price? The allegation is simple and sticky: the same sophisticated desk “accumulating” IBIT is also supposedly the desk leaning on BTC and BTC-linked vehicles at a predictable time each morning to create better entry prices. The rebuttal, from market structure veterans, is equally blunt: you’re reading a market maker’s inventory like it’s a directional bet. BullTheory framed the 13F as an accumulation story, writing that Jane Street bought 7,105,206 IBIT shares “worth $276 million” in Q4 2025 and “now holds 20,315,780 IBIT shares worth $790 million,” before adding: “This is the same entity rumoured to be behind the daily ‘10 AM’ manipulation to push Bitcoin prices lower.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Accumulation Notably Weaker Than Nov 2025 Bounce: Glassnode The screenshot circulating alongside the claim shows Jane Street Group LLC listed with a 13F source tag, an options indicator marked “Y,” a position of 20,315,780, and a latest change of 7,105,206, filed 12/31/25. That “Y” is the detail critics keep coming back to because it’s the quickest tell that the position may not be what the headline suggests. BREAKING: Jane Street bought 7,105,206 $IBIT shares worth $276 million in Q4 2025. It now holds 20,315,780 IBIT shares worth $790 million. This is the same entity rumoured to be behind the daily “10 AM” manipulation to push Bitcoin prices lower. pic.twitter.com/NFC5r5hHUn — Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) February 17, 2026 Milk Road amplified the “10am theory,” calling it “persistent whispers” about “certain institutional trading desks running a very specific/shady playbook… (Jane Street included.).” The account described an alleged routine: “Around 10 AM ET, right at the US stock market open, large sell volumes hit BTC and related ETF shares. This creates panic → triggers liquidations of leveraged longs → and exploits thin liquidity pockets. Then the same firms allegedly buy back at lower prices.” Milk Road added that the pattern “apparently emerged prominently in early Nov 2025,” showed up in Q2 and Q3, and “has continued into early 2026,” while stressing: “To be clear – these are unverified rumors circulating in the community.” Not everyone bought the internal logic even on its own terms. CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost responded with the question many traders would ask first: “In this rumor, when is Jane Street supposed to have bought large amounts of BTC so as not to be selling at a loss right now”. Milk Road replied that the rumor “suggests they’d accumulated in the lead up,” then used existing holdings to “sell/dump prices → buy in size at a lower price,” adding again: “totally unverified.” Market Makers: Inventory Isn’t A Thesis The strongest pushback focused on mechanics, not vibes. Louis LaValle, CEO and co-founder of Frontier Investments, argued the viral framing misreads what a 13F is showing in the first place: “This isn’t correct. You’re misinterpreting the 13F. Jane Street is a lead market maker and Authorized Participant for IBI. They aren’t ‘holding’ as a bet. The ‘Y’ in the options column next to that $5.7B value confirms this is a delta-hedged position.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales Flood Binance As Correction Deepens: On-Chain Data Shows LaValle added that the Q4 increase could be operational rather than directional: “They added 7 million shares in Q4 to manage the record volatility and creation/redemption demand. As a market maker, they hold these shares to balance the risk of the options they write. It has nothing to do with conviction or some mysterious price manipulation.” Former hedge fund manager Michael Green struck a similar note, calling the discourse “painful” and pointing to what isn’t visible in the filing: “Jane Street may be taking a position in IBIT, but that position is almost entirely offset by undisclosed options (on IBIT) and futures positions. They are certainly not ‘accumulating’ a position in Bitcoin. That’s how market making works.” Others put it more sharply. Former prop trader Ryan Scott (“Horse”) warned: “Anyone posting this as bullish is committing a capital offense. This should be ‘You’ll never guess who also has offsetting derivative positioning that does not need to be reported’ Jane Street is not longing Bitcoin.” Nik Bhatia boiled it down to incentives: “Jane Street owns IBIT so that it can write options, arbitrage, and everything else a quantitative trading shop does to make fast money.” Overall, the market-maker explanation appears more consistent with how these positions are typically managed, while the “10AM slam” narrative remains, at this stage, just that, a theory circulating on crypto X rather than a verified claim. At press time, BTC traded at $68,107. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin remains stuck below the $70,000 mark, a level that once served as a crucial floor for the cryptocurrency but has now turned into its most significant near-term barrier.  After losing that support, the asset has struggled to regain momentum, and analysts warn that a combination of macroeconomic uncertainty and weak buying pressure could push the asset back into the $50,000 range — a level not seen since September 2024. Iran Tensions, Fed Uncertainty And ETF Withdrawals Market sentiment has noticeably deteriorated in recent weeks. “Sentiment is clearly bleak in crypto markets,” said Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter.  She pointed out that although traditional financial institutions continue to make meaningful strides in adopting digital assets, those developments have not translated into stronger prices, which she noted, is weighing further on investor confidence. Related Reading: Top Expert Projects Bitcoin Bear Market To End In Less Than 365 Days Broader macroeconomic forces are adding to the unease. According to Bloomberg, traders are assessing escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran, as well as renewed debate over whether the economic impact of artificial intelligence (AI) could extend beyond the technology sector.  At the same time, expectations surrounding Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts have shifted back into focus following last week’s inflation data, injecting additional uncertainty into risk markets. Capital flows are not offering much relief. US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a fourth consecutive week of net outflows, with $360 million pulled last week alone.  Bitcoin At Risk Of Drop To $50,000 “Macro news has been closely correlated with crypto’s risk profile over the last 12 months,” said Paul Howard, senior director at market maker Wincent. He expects Bitcoin to remain range-bound as it searches for a new catalyst to revive sentiment.  Howard added that a pending US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, expected Friday, could have a more meaningful market impact than routine Federal Reserve minutes or inflation reports. Related Reading: XRP Outlook Slashed: Standard Chartered Lowers Forecast From $8 To $2 Amid this debate, investors view $60,000 as a pivotal support level for Bitcoin, but that floor could give way if risk appetite weakens further, according to Robin Singh, CEO of crypto tax platform Koinly. Singh cautioned that the market does not yet display the type of deep capitulation typically associated with durable cycle lows. “One macro wobble, another wave of uncertainty, or even just sustained chop in the mid-$60,000s could easily tip this into a sharper flush back into the $50,000s,” Singh said. “This doesn’t have the same full capitulation feel we’ve seen at true cycle bottoms in the past.” At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at around $68,000, marking a 29% decline over the past thirty days. Compared to the all-time high of $126,000 reached last October, CoinGecko data shows a 46% difference between the current trading price and the all-time high.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

While much of the market’s attention remains fixed on the Bitcoin (BTC) short-term price outlook for the remainder of the year, some early industry voices are raising a far longer-term concern — one that could introduce as much as $274 billion in potential selling pressure over the next decade. Quantum Risk Debate Grows  In a recent post on social media, market expert Crypto Rover pointed to what he described as a growing conversation among early Bitcoin analysts and long-time participants in the space.  According to the analysis, the warning is not coming from retail traders reacting to daily price swings. Instead, it is being discussed by so-called “OG” holders — investors who have been involved with Bitcoin since its earliest years. Related Reading: Top Expert Projects Bitcoin Bear Market To End In Less Than 365 Days The issue at the center of the debate is not macroeconomics or regulatory shifts, but quantum computing. A segment of early adopters believes that advances in quantum technology may no longer be a distant or purely theoretical risk.  Within the next five to ten years, they argue, quantum systems could become powerful enough to challenge the cryptographic foundations that secure the Bitcoin network. If quantum machines were able to break or significantly weaken that encryption, older wallets — particularly those using early-generation security standards — could become vulnerable. The concern is not that Bitcoin’s network is currently weak, but that a sufficiently advanced quantum breakthrough could expose dormant coins whose private keys were once thought secure. This is where the potential supply shock comes into focus. Potential Return Of Early-Era Bitcoin An estimated 4 million BTC from Bitcoin’s early years, particularly before 2011, are considered inactive or lost. Markets generally treat those coins as permanently out of circulation, effectively reducing Bitcoin’s usable supply.  However, Rover asserts that if quantum computing were ever able to unlock even a portion of those wallets, that supply could theoretically return to the market.  To understand the magnitude of such a shift, Rover points to recent history. Since 2020, institutions and corporations have collectively accumulated roughly 3 million BTC, which played a key role in driving BTC from $10,000 to peak levels above $120,000.  Related Reading: XRP Outlook Slashed: Standard Chartered Lowers Forecast From $8 To $2 The expert warns that if 4 million Bitcoin were suddenly viewed as potentially liquid supply, it would represent a long-term overhang far exceeding the scale of recent institutional accumulation. However, Rover highlighted that quantum computing does not represent an imminent danger to Bitcoin’s security. The technology is continuously evolving, and there is no confirmed ability to break modern cryptographic standards at scale.  BTC was trading at roughly $67,800 at the time of writing, representing a 2.6% decrease over the previous seven days, according to CoinGecko data.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

After an extended period of relative stability, Bitcoin has entered a renewed phase of volatility, with price swings accelerating to levels not seen in nearly a year. The sudden shift signals a potential turning point in market dynamics, as tightening liquidity conditions, changing investor sentiment, and increased trading activity drive sharper movements across the crypto market. How Rising Volatility Signals A Change In Market Regime Bitcoin volatility has returned to levels not seen in almost a year. A full-time crypto trader and investor, Daan Crypto Trades, has highlighted on X that ever since the tariff-related market dump, BTC price action has remained unusually slow, and it is rare to see a daily candle move of 5% or more. Over the past few weeks, the broader market breakdown has seen a notable change. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Holds The Line, But Can Bulls Force A Break Higher? The rise in volatility mirrors broader instability across all other markets, which is definitely not a calm period for markets around the world. Meanwhile, elevated volatility often creates attractive opportunities for short-term traders. Daan emphasized that his primary focus remains on the next larger market swing and accumulating BTC at the lowest possible levels, with a long-term horizon in mind. According to investor Jelle, buying Bitcoin at the bottom of the last cycle is not because he anticipated the exact price, but because the market showed remarkable resilience following the collapse of FTX. When FTX collapsed, BTC sold off roughly 20%, but in a market deep into a bear phase, the price action began moving sideways, sweeping previous lows and eventually forming higher lows.  After months of downside, the market had already absorbed so much negative information that even a major systemic shock failed to drive prices significantly lower. Jelle noted that these structural shifts bear losing strength and bulls gradually regaining control are the key signals he is watching for again.  While there are price levels where he’s willing to take action, the decision ultimately depends on the broader market context. The focus is on bears losing momentum and bulls starting to show early signs of strength, because the market will eventually show its resilience. From Accumulation To Price Discovery Bitcoin has entered a critical accumulation phase that could define the next nine months of the cycle. Analyst Aralez stated that the price has entered a zone where the market will form a bottom, but growth should not be expected within 3 to 5 months of accumulation before the breakout. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio Sinks To Historical Lows — Accumulation Next? However, the outlook suggests that this accumulation phase will eventually resolve to a decisive move higher, leading to a new all-time high near $130,000. After a confirmed break above $126,000, it could open the door to $250,000. Under this scenario, Ethereum and other high-cap altcoins are expected to follow BTC’s momentum. Also, altseason and Memecoin season will revive, showing 100 times growth in days. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin (BTC) may be positioning for another significant upward move as on-chain data suggests strong accumulation activity among long-term holders. A CryptoQuant author, Darkfost on X, highlighted a significant rise in demand from accumulator addresses that consistently acquire and retain Bitcoin. According to him, the current behavior of these investors could influence market sentiment and trigger a price bounce in Bitcoin.  Bitcoin Accumulation Activity Suggests Future Upside Darkfost’s CryptoQuant chart analysis shows that monthly accumulation from “accumulator addresses” now averages around 372,000 BTC, up sharply from 10,000 BTC per month in September 2024. This substantial increase in long-term buying indicates a strategic positioning that contrasts with the recent short-term trading behavior in the market. Related Reading: Extreme Bitcoin Shorts Could Predict A Bottom, Here’s The Significance His chart also shows that demand from accumulator addresses was steadily increasing each year. According to the analyst, Bitcoin’s latest price decline appears to have created opportunities for these long-term investors to continue buying aggressively. Rather than reacting to ongoing price volatility, they appear to be focused on Bitcoin’s future growth and are positioning ahead of any potential bounce.  Notably, Darkfrost has indicated that the scale of the recent accumulation is unprecedented, suggesting a large portion of Bitcoin has consistently been removed from circulation. As demand continues to increase and supply declines, this could create ideal conditions for an upward price movement.  The recent accumulation trend also highlights a major contrast between short-term trading and deliberate positioning. Accumulator addresses tend to show a disciplined, patient approach to investing, which has historically aligned with periods of stronger market performance. Their aggressive buying may act as a stabilizing factor in the market and provide early indicators for a possible price rebound.  The same principle applies to periods with notable sell-offs and weak demand. When investor sentiment is low, particularly in highly volatile conditions, it can contribute to more pronounced downtrends.  How Accumulator Addresses Are Identified Darkfost notes that CryptoQuant identifies accumulator addresses using a detailed set of criteria. According to him, these addresses show no outflows and must have purchased a minimum amount of BTC in their latest transaction. Each address must also have at least two separate purchasing events or inflows, hold a minimum total Bitcoin balance, and have been active at least once over the past seven years.  Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Crash Toward $60,000 Was “Necessary” To ensure accuracy, CryptoQuant also excludes known exchanges and miner addresses, as well as any addresses that interact with smart contracts. This framework helps reduce distortions and provides a clearer picture of long-term holders actively accumulating Bitcoin.  Darkfost emphasized that the identification and selection process is precise and thorough, allowing confidence in the validity of the observed accumulation. While CryptoQuant takes extensive measures to be accurate, the report acknowledges that selection is not perfect and cannot capture every entity, such as centralized exchanges or miners. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s ongoing correction is pulling large holders back onto centralized venues, with CryptoQuant data showing a sharp jump in whale-dominated inflows to Binance. At the same time, derivatives positioning continues to unwind, reinforcing the picture of a market de-risking across both spot and futures. Bitcoin Whale Share Of Inflows Spikes On Binance CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) said Binance is seeing a notable rise in whale activity as the drawdown pressures participants “from retail participants to whales and even institutions.” His focus was the “whale inflow ratio,” a metric that compares BTC inflows from the 10 largest transactions against total exchange inflows, smoothed using a weekly average to reduce the impact of one-off transfers. “According to the whale inflow ratio, we are seeing a clear surge in whale activity on Binance, reflecting a specific dynamic in the market,” Darkfost wrote. “This ratio is calculated by comparing BTC inflows from the 10 largest transactions to total inflows. Using a weekly average helps reveal a clearer trend, filtering out noise from isolated, exceptional transactions.” Related Reading: 46% Of Bitcoin Supply Now In Loss—What It Could Take For A Bottom Between Feb. 2 and Feb. 15, Darkfost said the ratio rose from 0.4 to 0.62, implying that a larger share of inbound BTC to Binance is now coming from a small set of large transfers. While the metric doesn’t prove intent, a higher concentration of whale inflows is often read as an increase in potential sell-side supply sitting on exchange order books, particularly during risk-off stretches. “It is important to note, however, that this reflects an increase in their share of inflows, which can be interpreted as rising sell-side pressure in the market,” he added. Darkfost also flagged that some of the activity may be linked to a specific entity. “Part of these inflows can be attributed to a well-known whale, believed to be Garrett Jin. Nicknamed 19D5 or ‘the Hyperunit whale,’ this whale has been particularly active on Binance recently, moving close to 10,000 BTC onto the platform.” He framed the broader context as a liquidity and venue-choice story rather than a single wallet-driven anomaly, arguing that multiple whales have been sending “significant amounts of BTC” to Binance, aided by its depth while uncertainty pushes investors to reassess exposure. Derivatives Unwind Adds To Pressure In a separate post, Darkfost argued the derivatives market contraction that followed the cycle’s top remains a central feature of the current tape. “Analyzing Bitcoin open interest across exchanges highlights how severely the derivatives market has contracted since the last all time high and the October 10 sell off,” he wrote, adding that speculation “reached unprecedented levels.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Capitulation Or Buy Zone? What On-Chain Data Shows Right Now He pointed to prior peaks in BTC-denominated open interest on Binance: 94,300 BTC after the November 2021 peak versus 120,000 BTC at the October 2025 market top and said aggregate open interest across all exchanges rose from 221,000 BTC in April 2024 to 381,000 BTC at the cycle peak. Since that top, he said open interest has fallen in almost every month, including a sharp Oct. 6–Oct. 11 drawdown when Binance open interest dropped 20.8%, while Bybit and Gate.io each posted 37% declines. The contraction has continued, with Binance down another 39.3%, Bybit down 33%, and BitMEX down 24%, according to Darkfost. His takeaway is that the market is still in a risk-reduction phase, whether voluntary or forced by liquidations amid volatility. “Overall, this environment indicates that investors are actively reducing exposure, cutting risk, or being forced out through liquidations driven by ongoing volatility,” he wrote. “Under these conditions, it is difficult to envision Bitcoin stabilizing sustainably and reigniting a bullish trend in the short term.” At press time, BTC traded at $67,823. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s recent price decline has led to many traders betting on further downside, with on-chain data showing a notable increase in bearish positioning across major crypto exchanges. According to on-chain data from Santiment, aggregated funding rates have fallen into deep negative territory. This level of deep short positioning has not been seen with Bitcoin since August 2024, a period that ultimately established a major bottom before a powerful multi-month recovery. Bitcoin traders are now back to this level, and history shows that such extreme positioning can create the conditions for a rally. Funding Rates Show Bearish Positioning For Bitcoin Santiment’s “Funding Rates Aggregated By Exchange” metric blends funding data from multiple major exchanges to provide a good view of market sentiment and positioning pressure across the crypto industry. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Crash Toward $60,000 Was “Necessary” Funding rates are a mechanism used in perpetual futures markets where traders pay small fees to one another at regular intervals to keep contract prices aligned with spot prices. When funding rates are negative, short sellers are paying long traders. When they are positive, longs are paying shorts. The latest chart data from Santiment shows funding rates are now in negative territory, with red bars dominating the lower section of the chart. Funding rates are now less than -0.01%, which shows that a significant portion of derivatives traders are positioned for downside.  More often than not, funding rates are positive, as shown in the chart below. According to Santiment, the last time derivatives funding reached similarly extreme negative levels was in August 2024.  At that time, traders were shorting Bitcoin aggressively after a notable price crash. However, instead of continuing lower, the Bitcoin price action reversed sharply. Short liquidations helped contribute to an approximately 83% rally over the following four months as positions were forced to close. A similar setup occurred after Binance’s major liquidation event on October 10, 2025, when billions of dollars in long positions were wiped out. In the aftermath, traders turned sharply bearish and crowded into short positions. Extreme Shorting Can Lead To A Squeeze Extreme negative funding is a reflection of fear-based positioning. All that needs to happen for a short squeeze is for the Bitcoin price to push just a bit higher. Related Reading: Popular Tesla Investor Shares The Major Problem After Bitcoin Fell Below $70,000 If the price unexpectedly moves higher, leveraged shorts begin accumulating losses at a fast pace. Once those losses cross liquidation thresholds, exchanges automatically close those positions. Traders must buy back Bitcoin to cover their positions, and this, in turn, creates upward pressure on the price. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $68,740, but the short-term cost basis is around $90,900. A strong push and close above $75,000 could lead to bullish momentum and draw in fresh inflows, increasing the chances of a short squeeze. However, heavy shorting alone does not guarantee an immediate rebound, though it does create a fragile environment where positioning pressure can quickly change to sharp upside volatility. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is sitting at a “critical point,” with traders split between two familiar scripts: a full capitulation event, or the early innings of a durable bottoming process. In a Feb. 15 video explainer, CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn argued the data is starting to line up for the latter, but with a clear caveat that any bottom is more likely to be a grind than a snapback. Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? Bitcoin is currently trading roughly 50% below its all-time high, a drawdown that looks severe in isolation but still smaller than the 70%+ declines seen in prior bear markets, Maartunn said. The more actionable question, in his framing, is not whether the market can go lower but whether the ingredients that usually precede a turn are appearing. Maartunn points first to what he describes as “structural selling pressure” tied to spot ETFs. According to his figures, the new spot ETFs have posted an $8.2 billion drawdown from peak holdings, “the largest on record”, creating persistent sell pressure. He adds that the current price is around 17% below the average buying price for ETF holders, putting a meaningful slice of that cohort underwater and potentially incentivized to cut exposure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sees Largest Shorts Liquidation Event Since 2024 — What Happened? He then pairs that flow story with a mechanical reset in derivatives. Open interest has been “sliced by more than half,” falling from $45.5 billion to $21.7 billion, with a 27% drop in open interest in the last week alone. Maartunn describes this as a broad deleveraging event, painful in real time, but historically consistent with conditions that allow a bottom to form. “Look, it’s definitely painful for anyone who is overleveraged, but getting rid of all that speculation is an absolutely necessary step to form a real sustainable market bottom,” he said. “This is a signal of a major wash out of speculative excess.” To gauge whether the drawdown is translating into capitulation-like stress, Maartunn focuses on short-term holders. He cites the short-term holder MVRV ratio at 0.72, implying the average short-term holder is down about 28%, “deep underwater” as a group. In his telling, that’s not a routine reading: it’s the lowest level since the July 2022 bottom, and a band that has historically aligned with periods of maximum financial pain. “This level of financial stress is pretty rare historically, and it usually happens during periods of major capitulation,” Maartunn said. “Now, sure, could this ratio go even lower? Absolutely. But what history shows us is that when we get down into these levels, the risk-to-reward profile for Bitcoin starts to look a lot better.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Flirts With ‘Undervalued’ As MVRV Slides Toward 1 Maartunn also frames the current structure as a retest of a major support cluster — where the previous cycle’s all-time high intersects the upper boundary of an older trading range — a zone that has often mattered in past cycle transitions. From there, he moves to time-based analogs, suggesting prior bear-market durations imply a broad window between June and December 2026, with the last two cycles clustering most tightly between September and November. His closing point is that bottoms are rarely single-day events. In his view, ETF-driven structural selling, the leverage flush, stress among short-term holders, and the retest of key levels can all coexist inside a longer bottoming process — with sentiment as the final tell. “A real market bottom… that’s usually marked by just apathy,” he said. “When engagement on social media is totally dead, your timeline is quiet, and honestly, nobody seems to care anymore. That period of total disinterest is often the point of maximum financial opportunity.” Overall, the implication of Maartunn’s framework is straightforward: the data may be shifting toward early bottom formation signals, but the confirming evidence, particularly around flows and sentiment, could still arrive in stages, with volatility and further stress tests along the way. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $68,710. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

As the Bitcoin price tumbled in the past few weeks, several investors are increasingly building short positions against the premier cryptocurrency. A recent analysis predicted an impending short squeeze, as the funding rates plunged to new lows. According to the latest on-chain data, this short squeeze not only happened; it occurred at a rate not seen in years. $736M In Shorts Wiped Out Across All Exchanges In a recent Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, pseudonymous on-chain analyst Darkfost revealed that the Bitcoin market recently experienced the largest short liquidation event since September 2024. The relevant indicator here is the Short Liquidations USD metric, which tracks the total dollar value of short positions in Bitcoin that were forcibly closed (liquidated) by exchanges over a given period.  Related Reading: Solana Funding Rates Hit 17-Day Negative Streak — What This Means For Price According to Darkfost, this liquidation event comes second when compared to the $773 million in positions forcefully closed on September 20, 2024. As was earlier mentioned, this event was preceded by a period where there were significantly high amounts of sell positions (reflected by the deeply negative funding rates) on Binance and other exchanges. Typically, when a disproportionate amount of short positions is forcefully closed, this offsets what is referred to as a short squeeze. During a short squeeze, sell-side liquidity is converted, by liquidation dynamics, to jet fuel for upward price movement.  Darkfost further explained that the derivatives market is currently heavy with speculative positioning, while the spot market, on the other hand, continues to struggle with thin liquidity. This imbalance creates a fragile market environment, where aggressive shorts can amplify upside volatility if squeezed. However, it is worth noting that in the scenario where there is sustained scarcity of demand, the current upside rally sponsored by the short squeeze may also not be sustained. Hence, until the spot market starts to see a significant demand that aligns with the present conditions, Bitcoin is best described as being in an uncertain phase.  Bitcoin Market Overview  At the time of writing, the price of BTC sits at around $69,878, reflecting a 1.5% leap in the past day. On the weekly timeframe, the flagship cryptocurrency seems to have barely moved, recording a slight upward growth of about 0.7%. Meanwhile, the premier cryptocurrency continues to drift further away from its record-high of $126,080, now 45% deep in the red. Related Reading: When Will Bitcoin Bounce Back? Top Analyst Breaks Down Prior Major Corrections Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin is hovering near key liquidity zones after a week of downward momentum, and traders are now eyeing untapped areas around $64,000. With price action showing potential short-term swings and H1 support under close watch, the next move could hinge on whether Bitcoin tests this low or reclaims higher levels first. Weekend Range Sets The Stage For Next Week’s Moves After a week of downward momentum, Bitcoin has stepped into a key liquidity area. According to Lennaert Snyder, the market is currently forming a range, which could provide clear trading opportunities in the coming week. While weekend trading isn’t his focus, observing the price action now helps plan next week’s approach. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Market Structure May Be Changing — This Metric Explains Why Liquidity is concentrated around the $71,422 range high, and the reaction to a retest of this zone will be important. Testing the range high could trigger short positions if the bearish market structure break (MSB) holds, or offer long opportunities if Bitcoin successfully reclaims the area. On the lower side, the $64,500 low and all liquidity beneath it remain largely untouched, making this a critical zone to monitor. When the market reaches these levels, traders will be watching for either high-probability reversals for long entries or continuation shorts if the support fails. The interplay between the range high at ~$71,422 and the lows around $64,500 will likely dictate the next significant swings, offering strategic opportunities for those tracking both sides of the market. Bitcoin Eyes Short-Term Breakout Before Possible Pullback BTC is showing short-term activity that suggests a minor push higher before resuming lower moves. Crypto analyst Scient highlighted that the H1 support/resistance level at $68,000, which was rejected two days ago, has now been broken and flipped, signaling a shift in short-term momentum. Related Reading: Bitcoin Social Sentiment Stays Bearish Even As Price Recovers From $60,000 Drop From the current setup, a new bearish channel is beginning to form. As part of this structure, Bitcoin is likely to sweep liquidity in the near term before heading lower. Observing these smaller intraday moves can provide traders with clues about how the market intends to reach its next major zones. Key levels to watch include the premium zone high at $72,200 and the untapped stacked liquidity above it, sitting between $73,000 and $74,000. These areas could attract buyers temporarily, creating a minor push toward the $73,000 region before the broader downtrend resumes. Traders should monitor price behavior closely when approaching these levels. On the downside, the H1 support at $68,000 remains critical. A clean break below this zone could accelerate the drop earlier than expected, confirming the bearish channel. Maintaining awareness of both the short-term push higher and this key support will help identify high-probability setups in the immediate timeframe. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Over the past week, the Bitcoin price kept on putting in consecutive lows, with barely any hopes in sight for a bullish reversal. However, on Friday, February 13th, the flagship cryptocurrency saw an upward momentum boost, where its value subsequently grew by 5.4%.  While this may have been good for short-term traders (specifically scalpers), a troubling future seems to be lying in wait for the premier cryptocurrency. This bearish prognosis is based on a recent technical evaluation of the Bitcoin price. SuperTrend Indicator Flashes Sell Sign On BTC Monthly Timeframe  In a 14 February post on social media platform X, influential technical analyst Ali Martinez revealed that the Bitcoin market could soon experience a significant macro trend shift. This hypothesis is based on the SuperTrend Indicator, which is a technical tool that indicates whether an asset (in this case, Bitcoin) is in an uptrend or in a downtrend. Related Reading: Solana Reclaims $80 Amid Friday Market Bounce – Analysts Set Next Targets This indicator plots a trailing level that acts as dynamic support when the price is in an uptrend, or resistance when in a downtrend. When the price is above the SuperTrend line, the market is considered to be in an uptrend; while when the price is below the line, on the other hand, it indicates that the market is in a downtrend. When a candle closes decisively beneath the dynamic trend line when previously in an uptrend, it indicates that the market has now flipped bearish, and vice versa. Interestingly, on the monthly timeframe, the candle now trades beneath the SuperTrend line, indicating that the market may be leaning bearish.  Interestingly, the current setup shares semblance with past cycle transitions. From the chart shared by the analyst, it is clear that Bitcoin’s macro structure has gone through a series of expansions and deep retracements. These retracements were also properly illustrated on the indicator in their early stages. Before the late 2014-2015, the 2018, and the 2022 bear markets, the SuperTrend Indicator flashed a sell signal, after which the market entered a bearish phase. Considering the sell signal was seen on Bitcoin’s monthly chart, this could be a sign that the retracement here might be long-term, as expected in a typical bear market. However, it is worth noting that the present market dynamics are very different from previous cycles, as institutions are more involved and ETFs have expanded investor horizons. Hence, these underlying changes might play a role in the present cycle. If the sell signal from the SuperTrend indicator aligns with on-chain activity and macro events, and Bitcoin manages to close beneath the SuperTrend line, a bear market would likely follow, one where Bitcoin’s devaluation by at least 60% may be seen.  On the other hand, if new demand enters the Bitcoin market, and the flagship cryptocurrency demonstrates resilience, the current signal could become a short-term warning, rather than a bear-market signal.  Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, Bitcoin holds a valuation of about $68,984, reflecting a 4.5% price jump in the past 24 hours. According to CoinGecko data, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has shrunk in value by approximately 29% on the monthly timeframe. Related Reading: JPMorgan Keeps Bitcoin Bull Case: $266,000 Remains The Target Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

After a dour performance throughout the week, the price of Bitcoin experienced a fair amount of bullish impetus on Friday, February 13th. Going into the weekend, the premier cryptocurrency seemed on its way to reclaim the psychologically relevant $70,000 level. Interestingly, recent on-chain data shows that this latest bullish spurt might be the start of, at least, a short-term rally for the Bitcoin price. Is Bitcoin On The Verge Of A Short Squeeze? In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, market analyst CryptoOnchain revealed that the Bitcoin Funding Rate on Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, has dropped to a critically low level — one not seen in over a year. The relevant indicator here is the 14-day Simple Moving Average (SMA-14) of BTC Funding Rate.  Related Reading: Ethereum Derivatives Reset Raises Questions About Next Price Move: What Happens Next? Typically, the Funding Rate metric estimates the periodic fee paid by traders in a derivatives market for a particular cryptocurrency (Bitcoin, in this case). When the funding rate is in the positive territory, it usually implies that the long traders (investors with buy positions) are paying a fee to short traders (investors with sell positions) in the derivatives market.  On the flip side, a negative funding rate metric, as is the case currently, suggests that the payment is going from the short traders to the long traders. Data from CryptoQuant shows that the 14-day SMA of the Bitcoin Funding Rate on Binance has fallen to -0.002, its lowest level since September 2024. As CryptoOnchain rightly noted, a deeply negative funding rate, especially one that lasts over a 14-day average, indicates that bears (short traders) are increasingly betting against the premier cryptocurrency. The market analyst noted that these extremely negative values often correlate with the bottom of severe downward trends. CryptoOnchain wrote in the post: From an on-chain and market psychology perspective, deeply negative funding rates often serve as a strong Contrarian Signal. The market currently appears to be heavily “overcrowded” on the short side. From a historical perspective, this on-chain trend has often set the stage for a potent short squeeze, where a minor price rebound could trigger a cascade of liquidations of the mounting short positions. This cascade of short liquidations often serves as jet fuel, further propelling the Bitcoin price to the upside. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin stands at around $69,000, reflecting an over 5% jump in the past 24 hours.  Related Reading: Historical Pattern From 2017 Signals Bitcoin Price Crash To $35,000 Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

As Bitcoin (BTC) trades roughly 50% below its all‑time high, investors are once again asking the familiar question: how long does recovery usually take? Market analyst Sam Daodu believes history offers valuable clues.  No Systemic Bitcoin Collapse This Time? Daodu notes that steep corrections are not unusual for Bitcoin. Since 2011, the cryptocurrency has endured more than 20 pullbacks exceeding 40%. Mid‑cycle declines in the 35% to 50% range have often cooled overheated rallies without permanently derailing long‑term uptrends.  In situations where there was no systemic breakdown in the broader market, Bitcoin has typically reclaimed prior highs in about 14 months. He contrasts the current environment with 2022, when multiple structural failures shook the crypto industry.  Related Reading: Trump Media Files For Cronos, Bitcoin‑Ether ETFs With Staking Focus At present, there is no comparable collapse rippling through the system. The analyst highlighted that BTC’s realized price—currently near $55,000—may provide a psychological and technical floor, as long‑term holders have historically accumulated coins around that level.  Whether the present downturn evolves into a drawn‑out slump or a shorter reset, Daodu suggests, will largely hinge on global liquidity conditions and investor sentiment. A Look Back At Historic Selloffs During the 2021–2022 cycle, Bitcoin peaked at $69,000 in November 2021 before tumbling to $15,500 one year later, a 77% drop. The downturn coincided with monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve, alongside the collapse of the Terra (Luna) ecosystem and FTX’s bankruptcy.  It ultimately took 28 months for Bitcoin to surpass its previous high, which it did in March 2024. At the market bottom, long‑term holders controlled roughly 60% of circulating supply, absorbing coins from forced sellers.  The 2020 COVID‑19 crash unfolded very differently. In March of that year, Bitcoin plunged about 58%, sliding from approximately $9,100 to $3,800 as global lockdowns triggered a liquidity shock.  Bitcoin rebounded quickly. It reclaimed the $10,000 level within six weeks and retook its 2017 high of $20,000 by December 2020, about nine months after the bottom. The eventual surge to $69,000 in November 2021 came roughly 21 months after the crash. The 2018 bear market presents yet another contrast. After reaching $20,000 in December 2017, Bitcoin collapsed 84% to $3,200 by December 2018. The implosion of the initial coin offering (ICO) boom, combined with regulatory crackdowns and limited institutional participation, drained speculative energy from the market.  Active addresses declined by 70%, and miners were forced to capitulate as revenues shrank. Without significant new capital or a compelling growth narrative, Bitcoin required nearly three years to revisit its previous peak.  Not Capitulation Yet The depth of the drawdown itself plays a critical role. Historically, corrections in the 40% to 50% range have taken roughly nine to 14 months to reverse, while collapses exceeding 80% have required three years or longer.  Related Reading: Standard Chartered Lowers Bitcoin Forecast: Predicts Price Dive To $50,000 Before Rebound With Bitcoin now down about 50% from its peak, the decline falls into what Daodu describes as a moderate‑to‑severe category—substantial, but not indicative of full capitulation.  Based on prior episodes of similar magnitude, he estimates that a return to previous highs could take 12 months or more, with macroeconomic conditions ultimately determining the speed of that rebound. As of writing, BTC was trading at $68,960, having recovered slightly on Friday with a 5% increase in an attempt to surpass its short-term resistance wall at $70,000.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin is nearing a level on the MVRV ratio that historically lines up with market “undervaluation,” according to CryptoQuant contributor Crypto Dan, as traders look for signs that a four-month drawdown from October 2025’s all-time high is shifting from distribution into accumulation. Is Bitcoin Undervalued? In a post on X, Korean Dan said Bitcoin is “approaching the undervalued zone,” arguing that the market is getting close to a threshold that has often marked compelling risk-reward for longer-horizon buyers. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? Leading On-Chain Analyst Sees A Floor Forming “After reaching its all-time high in October 2025, Bitcoin has been declining for approximately 4 months and is now approaching the undervalued zone,” he wrote. “Generally speaking, when the MVRV ratio falls below 1, Bitcoin is considered to be undervalued. The current value is around 1.1, which can be seen as being close to the undervalued zone.” The MVRV framing matters because the metric has tended to compress toward 1 around prior cycle lows. The chart shared alongside the post shows the ratio at roughly 1.10, with earlier sub-1.0 dips highlighted around past bottoming windows. Crypto Dan cautioned that traders shouldn’t assume the current setup will rhyme perfectly with prior drawdowns, specifically because the preceding advance looked different on valuation measures. “ However, unlike previous cycles, it is necessary to recognize that in this cycle, Bitcoin did not sharply rise all the way into the overvalued zone during the uptrend,” he wrote. “Accordingly, the pattern of the decline may also appear differently from the previous bottom zones, so it seems prudent to prepare for that possibility in our response.” That caveat became the focal point of a short back-and-forth in replies. One user, onlyus8x, suggested that if Bitcoin reached this cycle’s prior all-time high more than three times faster than before, the downturn could also resolve faster—“might the winter also pass 3 times faster?” Related Reading: Bitcoin Flashes Luna-Level Capitulation Signal at $67K, Not $19K Crypto Dan pushed back on a simple speed analogy, replying: “Because there are differences from your past, I personally set the criteria differently from past decline cycles by comprehensively judging these things as well.” Mayer Multiple And The 200-Week MA A separate post from analyst Will Clemente pointed to two long-watched, price-based benchmarks that are also pressing into historically constructive ranges. “Throughout Bitcoin’s life span we have seen two indicators continue to be the best global market bottom signals: The Mayer multiple (distance from 200 day moving average) and the 200 week moving average,” Clemente wrote. “Both of these are clearly in long term accumulation territory.” The charts he shared show a Mayer Multiple around 0.60, alongside a backtest table that flags prior instances when the indicator fell to roughly that level. The same image placed Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average near $57,926, with Bitcoin shown about 15% above it and a note that it has “not yet touched” that line in the current drawdown. At press time, BTC traded at $67,277. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is still playing out a series of price actions that look like they may be entering a deeper correction phase. A technical analysis shared on social media platform X by crypto analyst Chiefy suggests that Bitcoin is repeating the macro structures seen after the 2017 and 2021 cycle tops. If the pattern continues to unfold with similar symmetry, the projection is that Bitcoin could fall to as low as $35,000 within days. Bitcoin Imitating 2017 And 2021 Cycle Structures Chiefy’s chart compares three major peaks: the $21,000 high in 2017, the $69,000 peak in 2021, and the recent all-time high just above $126,000. The important trend is that in both of the first two cases, Bitcoin experienced severe retracements exceeding 70% before eventually finding long-term bottoms. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Crash Toward $60,000 Was “Necessary” The first retracement kicked off just after Bitcoin broke above $21,000 in 2017, when it fell 84% during the 2018 bear market. After the $69,000 peak in 2021, the decline reached about 77%. Chiefy described the fractal alignment as nearly perfect, raising the possibility that the market could be approaching another capitulation phase similar to past cycles. The current correction from $126,000 is beginning to resemble those earlier downturns in structure. If Bitcoin were to repeat a similar percentage drop, price projections would place the cryptocurrency in the $30,000 to $35,000 range. The analyst goes even further, warning that such a move could unfold within the next 10 days if the pattern were to play out as it did before. Weak ETF Demand And Whale Inflows Adding To Bearish Pressure Various on-chain data are pointing to a cautious outlook among crypto investors. According to Glassnode, the 30-day simple moving average of net flows for both Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs has been negative for most of the last 90 days. This shows that there is currently no clear sign of demand strong enough to absorb the persistent selling pressure. Related Reading: Important Bitcoin Macro Cycle Durations You Should Know About Interestingly, CryptoQuant’s Whales Inflow Signal metric shows that the average monthly inflows of BTC to Binance from whales increased massively as Bitcoin fell from $95,000 to $60,000. These inflows rose from around 1,000 BTC in late January to nearly 3,000 BTC in February, with a notable spike of roughly 12,000 BTC on February 6 alone. Since February 1, seven trading days have recorded more than 5,000 BTC in daily inflows from this group of large investors. This type of movement shows an intensification of transfers to exchanges from large Bitcoin holders into Binance, a trend that undoubtedly contributed to the price crash. This is because rising exchange inflows are a reflection of increasing selling pressure. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $66,015, down by 1.7% in the past 24 hours. Featured Image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s market cycles have long been shaped by shifting liquidity, investor behavior, and macroeconomic forces, but identifying true structural changes has often proved challenging. Currently, a high-precision metric is emerging as a clear signal for detecting when BTC’s market dynamics are fundamentally shifting rather than simply experiencing short-term volatility. As BTC matures as a global asset, tools like this are helping investors move beyond speculation and toward data-driven insights that reveal the network’s true direction. What This Metric Signal Has Marked In Every Bitcoin Previous Cycle The Bitcoin Realized Cap impulse is one of the most precise metrics that has ever been created to identify true structural change in BTC. Joao Wedson, the founder and CEO of Alphractal, revealed on X that when the Realized Cap impulse long-term turns negative, it signals that the market uncertainty has entered a fear-driven phase defined by capital flow, not sentiment.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Slips Deeper Into Correction With Spot Demand Drying Up – What To Know The metric signals a critical imbalance that, even as BTC ETFs accumulate and large institutions like MicroStrategy continue to add to their positions, incoming capital is still not enough to absorb the period when supply exceeds demand. BTC is fundamentally driven by supply absorption, and if incoming capital can not absorb the supply exiting circulation or remaining inactive, the result will be structural weakness in price. However, reversing this scenario would require a significantly higher level of accumulation, which is several times greater than the current pace, allowing for structural metrics indicators like the Realized Cap impulse to consistently turn upward again. This is the part that few investors understand.  Wedson noted that long-term holders and the true OGs are the original participants who are controlling a large share of BTC’s supply. Historically, their behavior has defined every major market cycle. This metric does not track narratives; instead, it measures who is truly in control. Why The Current Environment Limits Bitcoin Short-Term Upside The clearest way to understand the broader environment in which Bitcoin is evolving today is by examining the Bitcoin Z-Score heatmap. Crypto analyst Darkfost has highlighted that this examination would bring together several core factors influencing the BTC price action into a single framework and offer a high-level view of the market’s overall on-chain health. Related Reading: Bitcoin Trapped In Bear Market Woes As Liquidity Runs Dry, Is Another Crash Coming? According to Darkfost, this heatmap aggregates key indicators data tied to demand, liquidity, and BTC valuation levels, effectively summarizing whether the market structure is improving or deteriorating. However, all of these indicators remain firmly in the red, signaling that the underlying environment of BTC has not yet shifted toward recovery. As long as these indicators continue to reflect weak demand and constrained liquidity, the structural backdrop for BTC will be unable to reach new highs in the short term. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The Bitcoin price crash toward $60,000 has sparked debate across the crypto market, but recent analysis from BitQuant’s market experts explains why this move was inevitable and necessary. According to the firm, BTC’s sharp decline is not the result of widespread panic or manipulation but rather a natural development in its market structure. The firm explained that the recent local top, which exceeded $126,000, fell short of the expectations needed for healthy growth in the Bitcoin price.  Early Top And Market Liquidation Disrupted Bitcoin Price Structure  In a lengthy post on X, BitQuant reported that its local top for Bitcoin was initially set at $145,000, but this was never reached, leaving the cryptocurrency above $126,000 earlier in October 2025. According to the firm, this earlier-than-expected peak caused a structural failure that prevented the Bitcoin market from building a solid foundation for continued price gains.  Related Reading: Popular Tesla Investor Shares The Major Problem After Bitcoin Fell Below $70,000 On October 10, during the devastating liquidation event, BitQuant noted that a technical issue at Binance had triggered a sudden drop in BTC, from approximately $120,000 to $105,000, adding volatility to its already fragile setup. While some may interpret this Binance issue as manipulation, the crypto company stressed that such events are common in markets, especially in Bitcoin markets. The firm also added that the liquidation and technical error were not significant enough to justify the entire downside that followed.  BitQuant highlighted that the key point is that Bitcoin’s early price top disrupted its natural cycle of distribution and correction, which normally would have allowed its price to consolidate before attempting higher levels. Without a strong base, the market could not sustain strong bullish momentum, creating the bearish conditions that fueled BTC’s retracement toward the $60,000- $62,000 region. In a clean, structural scenario, the company stated that Bitcoin should have reached $145,000, distributed there, experienced a correction of about 25-30%, and then built a strong base before the next price expansion.  New Structure Sets Stage For Future Expansion Although BitQuant has highlighted flaws in Bitcoin’s current market structure, the firm stated that the cryptocurrency has already established a new setup following its decline toward $60,000. The company noted that this updated price structure now supports a continuation toward BTC’s next expansion phase.  Related Reading: Is Bitcoin A Better Investment Than Gold? Finance Expert Shares Deep Insights BitQuant further clarified that this is not the start of a new market cycle, but rather a continuation of the cycle that began around $16,000. The firm emphasized that the market’s performance and success in the coming months will depend on whether traders and investors view the next move as a new cycle or a progression of the current one. Although Bitcoin’s decline toward $60,000 shook the market, the cryptocurrency has since recovered slightly and is trading back above $67,000 at the time of writing. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin (BTC) resumed its downward trajectory on Thursday, falling toward $65,645 at the time of writing after once again failing to break through the major $70,000 resistance level. The pullback in the leading cryptocurrency has rippled across the broader digital asset market, with large-cap tokens, including Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Solana (SOL), posting similar declines. US Recession Signals And Potential Shutdown  Market expert Ash Crypto attributed the latest selloff to two primary forces: deteriorating US economic data and the rising likelihood of a federal government shutdown.  Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Already Pricing A US Recession? Analyst Sees Major Risk‑Reward Setup In a post published on X, he pointed to a series of weak macroeconomic indicators that have raised fresh concerns about the strength of the American economy. US home sales declined by 8.4% last month, marking the sharpest drop in nearly four years. At the same time, initial jobless claims came in higher than expected, signaling potential softness in the labor market.  Taken together, these developments suggest the economy may be losing momentum, increasing the risk of a recessionary environment. Compounding those concerns is the growing threat of a government shutdown. According to Ash, the probability of a shutdown occurring this week has surged to 96%. Such an event would likely weigh on both traditional financial markets and cryptocurrencies by tightening liquidity conditions.  He argued that the US economy is entering a period of turbulence that is already affecting equities, Bitcoin, and the broader digital asset market. In his view, market weakness could persist until there is a positive catalyst, such as a new trade agreement announced by President Donald Trump or a liquidity injection. Bitcoin At Risk? Technical analyst Crypto Rover shared similar concerns, warning that the “biggest threat to markets” has returned. He described the potential government shutdown as a serious liquidity hazard for financial markets. An additional complicating factor is the recent increase in the US debt ceiling to $41.1 trillion. While raising the ceiling prevents an immediate default, it also gives lawmakers more room to prolong negotiations without instantly halting government functions.  According to Rover, this flexibility paradoxically raises the risk of an extended shutdown because neither side faces immediate financial pressure to concede. Related Reading: UNI Rallies 10% As BlackRock Brings Treasury‑Backed BUIDL Token To Uniswap The analyst also pointed to weakening labor market conditions, slowing retail spending, and rising corporate bankruptcies as evidence that the economic backdrop is deteriorating.  Ultimately, should a new shutdown materialize and persist for a longer period, the analyst warns that the liquidity drain could be significantly larger, intensifying pressure on both equities and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin’s violent drawdown into the low-$60,000s has traders hunting for a floor. One of the market’s best-known on-chain analysts is arguing the risk-reward has shifted meaningfully, even if the “bottom” is still a process rather than a single print. James “Checkmate” Check, a former lead Glassnode researcher and now the author of Check On Chain, told What Bitcoin Did host Danny Knowles that once Bitcoin pushed into the $60,000 zone, it entered what he described as “deep value” territory across multiple mean-reversion frameworks, at the same time capitulation-style losses spiked to levels last seen at the 2022 cycle lows. Check’s core framing is blunt: if Bitcoin is headed to zero, none of the models matter. If it’s not, then the statistical setup looks increasingly asymmetric after the selloff. “If Bitcoin is going to zero, been nice playing. It’s been fun […] have fun playing with your bitcoins,” Check said. “If not, then you start looking at the statistics and the odds and go, ‘Well, if Bitcoin recovers, this is kind of a nice place to be. Don’t lose attention now. This is the time to pay attention.’” Related Reading: These Three Catalysts Could Spark Bitcoin’s Next Rally, According To Wintermute Check was less interested in pinning the move on a single forced seller than in walking through the market structure that made the slide plausible. IS THE BITCOIN BOTTOM IN? | @_Checkmatey_ We discuss: – The Bitcoin Bear Market – If $60k Is The Bottom – What Caused The Crash – How To Manage The Bear Watch it here: https://t.co/j6OTvdnWFc pic.twitter.com/Z0f1VaKkFd — Danny Knowles (@_DannyKnowles) February 11, 2026 Bitcoin Bottoms Are A Process His conclusion was probabilistic, not declarative. “The odds that we’ve put a bottom in have gone up significantly,” he said, adding later that he’d put the chance the market already set a meaningful low at “more than 50/50 […] probably 60%,” while assigning just “15–20%” odds of a new all-time high in 2026 without a major macro “pivot” or “big print” event. On ETFs, Check cited roughly $7.5 billion in outflows during the drawdown, while arguing the bigger picture looked less like a structural failure and more like positioning unwinds. He said that at around $80,000, roughly 62% of cumulative inflows were underwater, but noted ETF assets under management were down only mid-single digits (he referenced about 4–6%), and suggested earlier outflows aligned with CME open interest, consistent with basis-trade window-dressing rolling off. Check pushed back hard on anchoring to the four-year halving cycle as a timing tool, calling it an “unnecessary bias.” His approach: watch investor behavior first, check the calendar second. “Show me when investors put the bottom in. Show me when investors sell the top,” he said. “I’m going to look at that instead because then I’ll check the date.” Even if the low is in, Check expects the market to revisit it. Bottoms, he argued, tend to form through multiple “capitulation wicks” and then “time pain,” where boredom and lingering fear grind down late-cycle buyers. “If you are formulating a bear case right now, you’re doing it wrong,” he said, framing the current zone as the late innings of the move rather than the start, while still allowing price could go lower. He pointed to two failed all-time-high attempts around October, topping near $126,000, followed by a “shot across the bow” crash on Oct. 10 that he said likely left “bodies out there.” From there, he described a “hodler’s wall” of invested wealth sitting above key levels, with $95,000 as what he called the “bull’s last stand” and argued that once price lost those shelves, downside odds accelerated. A key reference level for him was $80,000, tied to the True Market Mean, a long-term center-of-gravity price that also overlapped with the ETF cost basis in his telling. Once that level broke, he said, the psychological regime changed: “Losing $80,000 was the acceptance phase. Now everyone believes that it’s a bear market. And what bear markets do, they trend lower.” From there, Check argued the market was pulled toward the prior high-volume consolidation zone, roughly the mid-$50,000s to $70,000 range, where a large share of this cycle’s trading volume had previously occurred. He said the selloff itself likely involved leverage blowing up somewhere, but framed that as downstream of a broader shift: when the crowd believes it’s a downtrend, they “sell every rip.” The most concrete “bottoming” signal Check emphasized was the scale of realized losses during the flush. He said capitulation losses ran around $1.5 billion per day, a figure he compared directly to the 2022 bottom and that the sellers were concentrated among recent cohorts: “class of 2025” and “class of 2026” buyers, plus people who bought the $80,000 bear-flag region. He also flagged SOPR printing around minus one standard deviation, which he said has only appeared in two historical contexts: an early “this isn’t a dip” warning, and later near bottoming phases. Related Reading: Bitcoin Flashes Luna-Level Capitulation Signal at $67K, Not $19K His conclusion was probabilistic, not declarative. “The odds that we’ve put a bottom in have gone up significantly,” he said, adding later that he’d put the chance the market already set a meaningful low at “more than 50/50 […] probably 60%,” while assigning just “15–20%” odds of a new all-time high in 2026 without a major macro “pivot” or “big print” event. On ETFs, Check cited roughly $7.5 billion in outflows during the drawdown, while arguing the bigger picture looked less like a structural failure and more like positioning unwinds. He said that at around $80,000, roughly 62% of cumulative inflows were underwater, but noted ETF assets under management were down only mid-single digits (he referenced about 4–6%), and suggested earlier outflows aligned with CME open interest, consistent with basis-trade window-dressing rolling off. Check pushed back hard on anchoring to the four-year halving cycle as a timing tool, calling it an “unnecessary bias.” His approach: watch investor behavior first, check the calendar second. “Show me when investors put the bottom in. Show me when investors sell the top,” he said. “I’m going to look at that instead because then I’ll check the date.” Even if the low is in, Check expects the market to revisit it. Bottoms, he argued, tend to form through multiple “capitulation wicks” and then “time pain,” where boredom and lingering fear grind down late-cycle buyers. “If you are formulating a bear case right now, you’re doing it wrong,” he said, framing the current zone as the late innings of the move rather than the start, while still allowing price could go lower. At press time, BTC traded at $67,788. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s price structure is showing signs of strain, and new data from CryptoQuant shows that fresh capital is no longer entering the market. Instead of the recent drawdown acting as an attraction for buyers, it appears to be triggering withdrawals. This change in liquidity behavior is important, as it indicates that Bitcoin may be transitioning into deeper bear market conditions. Notably, on-chain metrics tracking new liquidity flows are revealing negative cumulative inflows over the past month. Selling Pressure Builds, New Investor Inflows Flip Negative According to a recent analysis that was done on the CryptoQuant platform, Bitcoin’s 30-day cumulative new investor flow has dropped to approximately $2.6 billion.  Related Reading: Analyst Reveals The Best Time To Buy Bitcoin And The Best Time To Sell This metric was revealed from CryptoQuant’s ‘Bitcoin New Investor Flow’ data, which is revealing that more capital is leaving the ecosystem than entering it. The data shows that the ongoing dip is failing to attract meaningful participation from new buyers. Interestingly, the current reading of this metric is displaying a huge contrast between previous bull phases and current conditions. Large spikes in new money, visible in blue in the chart below, accompanied strong price rallies, particularly in 2017, 2021, and again during the 2024-2025 bull market. Those inflow surges coincided with powerful upside momentum in terms of price action. At present, those spikes are notably absent. Instead, the lower section of the chart is displaying growing red readings due to net capital outflows. The latest print is below zero, which shows that sell-offs are not being absorbed by fresh liquidity. This dynamic matters because markets rely on marginal buyers to sustain higher prices. When new participants step back, price action becomes vulnerable to deeper pullbacks. That is why there is a need for new buyers to absorb the selloffs. Low Liquidity Raises Crash Risks Although liquidity contraction does not automatically guarantee another major crash, it increases fragility of price action. Bitcoin, for one, is still trading below $70,000, although bulls have largely prevented further breakdowns below $60,000. This, in turn, has kept the Bitcoin price trading in a range around $70,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Caught Between Two Liquidity Traps — Which Side Breaks First? However, many crypto analysts are of the notion that Bitcoin could still crash further to lower price levels. Calls for a deeper correction are circulating across trading platforms and social media, with projected bottoms stretching from around $55,000 to as low as $30,000. The absence of inflow spikes suggests that Bitcoin may struggle to regain momentum in the near term. If liquidity continues to dry up, the probability of another significant leg lower before a rebound increases. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is changing hands at $67,160, reflecting a modest 0.3% gain over the past 24 hours. This price behavior is unfolding alongside a slowdown in mining activity due to miners shutting down their systems, which led to the largest mining difficulty drop since 2021. Featured Image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com