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Bitcoin (BTC) has reached a critical turning point, successfully flipping a key horizontal support zone that previously acted as resistance. With momentum now building, the focus has shifted to the next major test: the $117,000 resistance level. A decisive move above this threshold would not only confirm the continuation of the current rally but also set the stage for a potential run toward new highs. Daily Support Flip Confirms Bullish Control Alpha Crypto Signal, in a recent market update, pointed out that BTC is showing renewed strength on the daily timeframe. The leading cryptocurrency successfully flipped a key horizontal zone into support, a move that highlights growing buyer dominance in the market. This structural shift is seen as a positive development for bulls, laying the groundwork for further upside momentum. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Flashes ‘Rarest Signal’ Ever, Is A 100% Rally Possible? With buyers firmly in control, Bitcoin’s price action is now being driven higher toward the previous swing high near $117,000. This level has emerged as the next significant hurdle for bulls, acting as a critical area where market sentiment could either extend the rally or spark profit-taking.  The analysis further noted that if Bitcoin manages to push above $117,000, the level itself could turn into an attractive area for potential short setups. However, such a strategy carries risks, as the invalidation point would be a decisive breakout above BTC’s all-time high.  Until then, $117,000 stands out as the key level of interest for market participants. How Bitcoin reacts in this zone will determine whether it consolidates, faces rejection, or surges higher. For traders, this level offers a critical point to evaluate possible entries, exits, and positioning as the next major move takes shape. Bitcoin Struggles To Secure A Hold Above $116,000 According to a recent post by Crypto VIP Signal, Bitcoin is continuing its upward trajectory. However, the cryptocurrency has not yet been able to firmly hold above the $116,000 level, which suggests that while the overall trend is bullish, buyers have yet to fully overcome this significant hurdle. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Recovery Hopes Rise – Can Bulls Push It Past Resistance? Crypto VIP Signal’s analysis notes that the entire market is looking positive, but a temporary slowdown can be expected. This is primarily attributed to a decline in trading volume, which is a common occurrence on weekends as activity from institutional traders and large investors often lessens. Given these conditions, Crypto VIP Signal predicts that Bitcoin will likely experience a period of sideways movement. The consolidation phase would allow the market to digest recent gains and build the necessary momentum to attempt another push past the $116,000 resistance. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Despite experiencing a significant plunge from ATH levels earlier last month, the Bitcoin price continues to test crucial levels that could shape the trajectory of its next move. A fresh analysis from crypto market expert Casitrades suggests that the coming days could define whether the broader market will face a macro correction or extend its bullish momentum. For now, Fibonacci zones, Elliott Wave structures, and Relative Strength Index (RSI) behaviour align to build a critical narrative around BTC’s price direction.  Possible Scenarios For Bitcoin Price Macro Correction  On Friday, Casitrades explained in an X social media post that Bitcoin’s recent price surge has tested the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level around  $116,000, an important milestone in the recovery phase. Interestingly, despite this sudden push higher, the RSI highlighted on the price chart is yet to show the exhaustion one would typically expect at a major top. This suggests buyers may still have room to drive prices further upward before hitting a ceiling.  Notably, the analyst pointed out $118,000 as the next critical level to watch, noting that it coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and the 1.236 C-wave target within the developing Wave 2 structure. Casitrades has described this area as a decisive confluence point. A sharp rejection here could confirm that Bitcoin’s bull run has officially ended, reinforcing the theory that the cryptocurrency remains locked in a Wave 2 macro correction phase.  On the other hand, the analyst noted that forming a top around the decisive confluence point would confirm that BTC is not ready to challenge or break into new all-time highs and could instead retrace deeper. As the chart illustrates, potential downside targets lie well below Bitcoin’s current price levels above $115,800, hinting that a failure at $118,000 could lead to a steeper correction that might drag the cryptocurrency back into the $110,000 – $106,000 zone in the near term.  $122,000 Marks Final Test For Macro Correction While $118,000 remains the first line of resistance for Bitcoin, Casitrades highlighted that the cryptocurrency could extend its rally higher into the $120,000 – $122,000 zone if momentum persists. This level is viewed as the final test that will decide whether the macro correction holds or fails. It aligns with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement, making it an even more formidable resistance area.  The expectation is that if Bitcoin’s RSI shows signs of exhaustion and the cryptocurrency faces strong rejection in this region, the correction could be swift and significant. In this scenario, Bitcoin would set up for a macro downturn, confirming the theory that the rally from recent lows has merely been a corrective leg.  Related Reading: Dogecoin Defies Odds, Jumps 21% Even As ETF Debut Gets Pushed Back The projected correction could then reset the broader structure, allowing for healthier long-term price action. However, if Bitcoin manages to break through $122,000 convincingly, Casitrades notes that it would invalidate the macro correction narrative altogether and potentially send it to price levels between $122,000 – $124,000.  Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) has extended, surging to a three-week high of $115,500, fueled by softer U.S. inflation data and steady inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. The rally coincided with growing investor optimism that the Federal Reserve may deliver a 25 basis-point rate cut next week, further boosting risk appetite. Related Reading: Dogecoin RSI Signal Returns—Last Time It Sparked A 1,700% Rally According to CoinMarketCap data, Ethereum (ETH) also gained ground, trading above $4,550, while altcoins like Solana (SOL) and Dogecoin (DOGE) recorded sharp increases. Solana climbed over 7% to $239, while Dogecoin rose 5% to $0.26, signaling broad-based strength across the crypto market. BTC's price trends to the upside on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview Market analysts credited the upward move to different macroeconomic stability and institutional inflows. Bitcoin ETFs registered more than $928 million in inflows, reinforcing demand from both retail and professional investors. Resistance Near $116K Raises Concerns Despite the bullish wave, Bitcoin faced resistance above $116,000, where sellers limited further gains. Analysts noted that rejection at this level emphasizes ongoing market caution. It is believed that the rally indicates renewed sentiment, but the rejection above $116,000 shows that sellers continue to be active. Derivatives data echoed this caution. The weekly options expiry revealed a put/call ratio of 1.3, signaling that bearish bets slightly outweigh bullish positions. This trend suggests traders expect Bitcoin to remain range-bound, with probable moves limited between $111,000 and $116,000. Meanwhile, CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index showed that most market indicators, including the MVRV-Z score and stablecoin liquidity, have turned bearish. Analysts warn that a sudden shift in sentiment could trigger profit-taking and liquidations. What’s Next for Bitcoin (BTC)? If Bitcoin achieves a sustained breakout above $116,000, analysts believe the next target could be $118,000, with strong support around $113,700. However, volatility remains a risk as traders wait for the Fed’s upcoming interest rate decision. Adding to the positive outlook, Sean Ono Lennon, son of music legend John Lennon, recently praised Bitcoin as a hedge against “runaway money printing,” emphasizing its appeal as a scarce, decentralized asset during times of economic uncertainty. Related Reading: XRP Price Gets Tighter: Here’s The Level Keeping It From Price Discovery For now, Bitcoin’s uptrend remains steady, but looming bearish signals and resistance levels could challenge the strength of the rally in the coming days, possibly leading to another dip below $110,000. Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD on Tradingview

Bitcoin (BTC) has surged from around $108,000 on September 1 to above $115,000 at the time of writing – recording a gain of roughly 4% over the past two weeks. However, fresh on-chain data suggests that Bitcoin may be on the cusp of a fresh rally that could propel it to new all-time highs (ATH). Bitcoin Rises Above Mid-Term Holders’ Realized Price According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor ShayanMarkets, Bitcoin’s recent rebound from $107,000 to just above $114,000 has lifted the digital asset over the Realized Price of mid-term (3-6 months) holders. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miners Shift Strategy: Accumulation Over Selling Signals Stronger Bull Cycle For the uninitiated, the mid-term holders’ Realized Price is the average acquisition cost of Bitcoin held by wallets that last moved their coins within the past 3–6 months. It serves as a key pivot level, often acting as support or resistance that reflects sentiment and potential sell pressure from this cohort. Per analysis by ShayanMarkets, the mid-term holders’ Realized Price currently stands at around $114,000. Now that BTC has surged above this level, the likelihood of an immediate sell-off has reduced significantly. The analyst added: A firm breakout and hold above this level would confirm renewed confidence from mid-term holders, potentially serving as the launchpad for another bullish leg that could propel Bitcoin to new all-time highs. Conversely, failure to hold above $114K risks shifting sentiment back toward caution and opens the path to deeper corrective moves. A Bump On The Road For BTC Fellow CryptoQuant contributor Gaah brought attention to short-term holders’ (STH) Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), normalized with a 30-day moving average. The contributor noted that after four months of consistently operating above the break-even line, the indicator is now showing that STH are selling their holdings at a loss. Related Reading: Bitcoin Holds $112,000 Support As Binance Whale Activity Cools Off – What’s Ahead? The STH selling their BTC at a loss indicates a “momentary loss of confidence” on the part of speculators, who are typically more sensitive to changes in price. Although BTC has jumped from $60,000 to as high as $125,000 over the past year, the SOPR STH has recorded descending peaks. In past cycles, a sharp surge in price was usually accompanied by peaks in the Extreme Greed region, suggesting strong retail participation. However, the current market cycle did not see any such dynamic at play, hinting that the rise in price was likely sustained by institutional investors. Gaah added that historically, market tops have only been confirmed when SOPR STH levels reached levels of extreme greed, a development that has not yet occurred in the current rally. As a result, the long-term trend remains firm, and the current realization of losses may just be a temporary healthy pullback. That said, some analysts caution that Bitcoin may already be very close to hitting its peak for this market cycle. Others predict that BTC may slump in September, before it resumes its bullish trajectory in Q4 2025.  Still, some analysts forecast Bitcoin reaching as high as $150,000 by Christmas. At press time, BTC trades at $115,050, up 0.7% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s current rebound off the $107,200 low has sparked renewed debate over whether the market has already set its local bottom and is positioned to rally higher.. Independent analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) argues that the probability is “90%+” that the low has been planted, citing both price structure and his recurring “FOMC reversal confluence” framework as confirmation. Analyst Claims 90% Chance The Bitcoin Bottom Is In Astronomer, who publicly documented his short-term bearish call from $123,000 down to the $110,000–$111,000 zone, revealed that he flipped long as the target was reached in late August. “Alright, as if the confluences of my confidence in the bottom being in the $110k area at the end of August weren’t strong enough … there now is another confluence lining up,” he wrote. According to him, the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting cycle has historically functioned as a turning point for Bitcoin trends. Related Reading: Countdown To Fed: Rate Decision Could Trigger Bitcoin Breakout He explained: “The FOMC meeting data reverses the ongoing trend at minimum 0 bars (on the date), or 6 bars at most before the date, and it has done that correctly 90%+ of the times. The few times it hasn’t, was because our quarterly long took over (which has more power).” In practice, Astronomer argues, markets front-run the event, as insiders and well-capitalized players set the post-FOMC direction before retail sentiment digests the outcome. With the next FOMC scheduled for September 18, he contends the downtrend from $123,000 to $110,000 already exhausted itself ahead of schedule. “Now with FOMC coming up … the low is likely already planted, and the trend reversed to up again,” he said. The analyst contrasted his methodology with the broader crypto commentary ecosystem, where many influencers continue to forecast further downside and a “red September.” He called such views “utter nonsense” rooted in surface-level seasonality. “Every time it does work, it plants its bottom before the actual meeting to front run the anticipation … insiders already have set the post FOMC price direction, regardless of the outcome,” he wrote, stressing that relying on generic “be careful” warnings ahead of central bank events misses the structural shift. Related Reading: This Bitcoin Cycle Changes Everything, Real Vision Analyst Explains Why After his long entry at $110,000, Bitcoin has since climbed above $115,000, prompting Astronomer to declare September’s bearish thesis already invalid. “ September will close green. Yup, Septembears officially 6% in the wrong now. As September opened at 108,299, and price is now at 115,000. That puts September in the upper historical quartile of how green it is at the moment,” he noted. He further pointed to the last two years as evidence that September’s reputation as a seasonally weak month for Bitcoin has lost statistical edge. “A certain month indeed doesn’t have to be green. ‘Seasonality’ is just a cookie cutter version of properly using cycles. Look at last two years, September has also been green and mean to the bears,” he wrote. For Astronomer, the conclusion is clear: “When many confluences point in the same direction, it usually means you have solved the rubik’s cube correctly and so can confidently believe.” Still, he tempered the conviction with risk management discipline, stating: “Of course, I could always be wrong, although it has been a long time we lost a trade, never go all in. Take a decent size risk and sleep sound.” With Bitcoin holding above $115,000 and the FOMC meeting days away, the market’s near-term verdict on whether a sustainable bottom has formed may arrive sooner rather than later. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin price action has just delivered one of the rarest and most closely watched signals in technical analysis — the Golden Cross. Analysts suggest that this powerful setup could lay the groundwork for an explosive rally, with speculations pointing toward a potential surge of over 100%.  Bitcoin Price Chart Flashes Golden Cross On Thursday, crypto analyst ‘Merlijn The Trader’ declared on X social media that Bitcoin has just flashed a Golden Cross, its rarest and most powerful technical signal. The analyst described this development as a historic moment that has only occurred three times since BTC’s inception. Each past occurrence has led to extraordinary price rallies, establishing the Golden Cross as a key signal that most traders and investors watch closely. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bull Market Over? Pundit Warns Investors Of 30-Day Window To Take Profit Sharing a detailed price chart, Merlijn outlined Bitcoin’s trajectory after each prior Golden Cross, pointing to returns that have left an indelible mark on the cryptocurrency’s history and the market as a whole. In 2016, the appearance of a Golden Cross set the stage for a bull rally of roughly 264%, a move many saw as the opening act of BTC’s first major run into mainstream recognition.  A year later, the signal reemerged in 2017, coinciding with Bitcoin’s meteoric rise of over 2,200%, culminating in the unprecedented high between $17,000 and $27,000. The third Golden Cross formation came in 2020, when BTC surged more than 1,190%, climbing from a low between $4,600 and $7,000 to roughly $69,000 by late 2021. Each instance not only marked a breakout rally but also achieved a new all-time high for the cryptocurrency.  Now, in 2025, Bitcoin has reportedly triggered the Golden Cross signal for the fourth time in its history. Merlijn’s analysis highlights that this is not just a routine crossover but an ignition point. He noted that previous Golden Cross signals aligned with the start of Bitcoin’s most powerful bull phases. As a result, the current setup could prepare the cryptocurrency for another outsized rally to new ATHs.  Based on historical data, even a conservative repeat of past percentage gains suggests Bitcoin could climb well beyond $200,000. A 100% rally from current levels above $115,000 could push the leading cryptocurrency well above $230,000. However, Merlijn’s chart points to an even greater move, projecting a potential surge to nearly $400,000. Bitcoin Bull Market Support Bands Hold Firm Crypto analyst Mags has also drawn attention to a different technical signal, reinforcing Bitcoin’s bullish case. According to him, BTC’s bull market support bands have acted as critical support zones in the past cycles, keeping the broader uptrend intact during temporary corrections.  Related Reading: Here’s How High The Bitcoin Price Will Go If It Repeats The 2017 Cycle Throughout this cycle, each time Bitcoin’s price tested the bull market support band, it managed to hold and rebound strongly. The most recent test saw the cryptocurrency bounce cleanly off the band, suggesting buyers are stepping in at these levels to defend support. Mags added that this consistent support has created a foundation for further gains in BTC’s price, indicating that the market is not overextended.  Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

According to data from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode, a group of mid-sized Bitcoin holders has stepped up buying this week, taking in roughly 65,000 BTC over the past seven days. Related Reading: Institutional Adoption Rises: 21X Brings Chainlink Into Europe’s Tokenized Securities Market At a spot price of $113,595, that haul equals about $7.35 billion. Reports have disclosed that these investors — wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC — have pushed their monthly net accumulation to 93,000 BTC. Sharks Expand Their Holdings Those mid-sized holders a.k.a. “sharks” now control about 3.65 million BTC. That is roughly 18% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, which is about 19.91 million coins. The shift is striking because it removes a meaningful chunk of coins from the pool of easily traded supply. Less available BTC can change how quickly prices move when demand rises. #Bitcoin entities holding 100–1k #BTC (“sharks”) have sharply ramped up accumulation. Over the past 7 days, their holdings grew by ~65k $BTC. The pace of accumulation has grown as well, with a 30D net increase of 93k $BTC. This group now holds a record 3.65M $BTC. pic.twitter.com/MRcIPcTB1T — glassnode (@glassnode) September 11, 2025 What This Means For Supply And Demand While these sharks are not the same as the very large institutional whales, their moves still affect market balance. Buying at this scale reduces liquid supply and can push prices up if fresh buying keeps coming. Some market participants see the pattern as a sign of growing confidence among this class of investors. At the same time, it can raise short-term volatility: when a concentrated group holds more coins, their future decisions to sell or hold will matter. Market Moves And Recent Price Action Bitcoin’s run this year has been strong. Based on market tracker numbers, BTC has climbed about 100% over the past year, is up 23% year-to-date, and has gained over 40% over the past six months. Price action has not been smooth, though. The market fell to about $107,000 on September first, then recovered to a little over $116,000 earlier today. At the time of writing, BTC was inching near $114,000. Forecasts And Investor Expectations Public forecasts have been bold. Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor has suggested Bitcoin could top $150,000 by Christmas. Tom Lee of Fundstrat has forecast $200,000 by the same date. Related Reading: ETF Dreams For Dogecoin: Serious Possibility Or Just Hype? Risks And What To Watch For This aggressive accumulation comes with caveats. Markets can reverse quickly. Large inflows into or out of ETFs, miner sell pressure, or a shift in macro conditions could halt the rally. Also, heavy concentration in certain wallet groups can amplify moves if those groups change course. Investors should watch wallet flows, trading volumes, and major announcements that might tilt sentiment. In short, the recent buying by mid-sized holders is a clear, measurable trend. It tightens the pool of coins available to trade and has coincided with strong price gains this year. Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin is once again gaining momentum, now trading above the $115,000 level after a modest surge yesterday. The move comes as markets price in growing expectations of a US Federal Reserve interest rate cut at its upcoming meeting next week. Risk assets, including crypto, have responded positively to the prospect of looser monetary policy, though the broader backdrop remains volatile. For Bitcoin, the challenge now lies in sustaining higher levels as bulls attempt to push further. While the reclaim of $115K signals strength, the path ahead is clouded with uncertainty as investors weigh macroeconomic risks alongside on-chain developments. Related Reading: Bitcoin Holds 4% Above STH Cost Basis As Mature Bull Cycle Demands Discounts Adding perspective, top analyst Axel Adler shared data showing that Bitcoin’s 30-day momentum currently sits in the Impulse Cooling Zone. This indicator suggests that while short-term momentum has softened, the broader uptrend remains intact. Adler emphasizes that the trend is not broken, framing the current phase as a period of consolidation rather than a structural reversal. With volatility likely to remain elevated in the days leading up to the Fed’s decision, Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $115,000 could prove decisive. The combination of macro catalysts and onchain resilience may define the cryptocurrency’s next significant move. Bitcoin Market Drift: Momentum, Liquidity, and Demand According to Adler, Bitcoin’s current setup reflects a phase of sideways action rather than a structural breakdown. He notes that negative 30-day momentum, while the price holds in the upper range, typically signals step-by-step unloading. In other words, coins are changing hands gradually without triggering a full reversal in the trend. For a proper restart and renewed acceleration, Adler identifies a key marker: the 30-day momentum must not only return to positive territory but also ideally push above +10%. That would confirm a shift back into a strong impulse phase. Until then, Adler emphasizes that the market remains in drift mode, shaped by thin liquidity. With fewer participants actively trading, the price can still crawl upward, largely due to weak supply and localized buybacks. However, this kind of advance carries the risk of a rapid collapse, since any spike in selling pressure could quickly overwhelm shallow order books. Crucially, Adler stresses that real demand does not emerge at cycle highs. Instead, it forms during moments when Bitcoin trades at an obvious discount. Referencing his earlier work on Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis versus Premium/Discount, he highlights that meaningful inflows only arrive when the market offers value. In a mature bull phase, where buyers are wary of chasing peaks, sustained rallies depend on these discounted entry points rather than speculative momentum alone. This perspective underscores the delicate balance in Bitcoin’s current landscape: still structurally strong, but highly sensitive to liquidity shocks. Related Reading: Dormant Bitcoin Waking Up: Over 600K BTC Moved Onchain In Weeks BTC Holds Strong Above Demand Bitcoin is currently trading around $115,142 after a strong recovery from the $110,000 zone earlier this month. The 12-hour chart shows BTC climbing steadily and now pressing against a key cluster of moving averages. The 100 SMA at $114,610 is being tested as resistance, while the 200 SMA at $112,267 has now flipped into support, strengthening the bullish case. The 50 SMA at $111,987 is also trending upward, suggesting a short-term momentum shift in favor of buyers. A successful close above $116,000 would mark a significant step forward for bulls, potentially opening the path to retest $118,000 and the critical resistance at $123,217. This level remains the major barrier before Bitcoin can attempt another push toward its all-time highs. Related Reading: Ethereum Network Activity Heats Up As Fees Hit $1.4M In 24H On the downside, immediate support rests near $114,000, followed by the $112,000 zone where the 200 SMA is positioned. Losing this level could weaken momentum and invite another round of selling pressure, with downside risks extending toward $110,000. The chart signals that Bitcoin has regained its footing after recent volatility. If bulls can hold above the moving averages and break through $116,000, the next leg higher may be underway, though resistance at $123K will be the true test. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin is back in the spotlight after reports confirmed that coins untouched since 2012 have been moved for the first time. Related Reading: Institutional Adoption Rises: 21X Brings Chainlink Into Europe’s Tokenized Securities Market The reactivation of an old wallet came at a moment when the market is already buzzing with strong ETF inflows and record levels of stablecoin liquidity. Wallet Reactivates After 13 Years According to Onchain Lens, the address that first received coins on November 26, 2012, moved 132.03 BTC in a single transaction. The transfer was worth about $15 million at current prices. The same wallet also sent five BTC to the Kraken exchange. After those moves, it still holds 308 BTC — a stash now valued at nearly $35 million. In total, the address once controlled 444 BTC, which the report places at more than $50 million combined. A dormant whale woke-up after 13 years, moved 132.03 $BTC ($15.06M) to a new address and depositing 5 $BTC into #Kraken. The wallet still holds 307.79 $BTC ($35M). It has received these $BTC for just $5,437 at $12.22https://t.co/mhCNYQs7cA pic.twitter.com/L0ltIwu6Oe — Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens) September 11, 2025 Early Holder Made A Tiny Bet That Paid Off Based on reports, the coins were originally bought when Bitcoin traded at about $12.22 per coin. The wallet’s total purchase cost was only $5,435. That original outlay has turned into massive gains. The current math shows a profit in the ballpark of $15.60 million on that small initial buy. Simple numbers like that help explain why stories about old wallets get attention. Bitcoin Price And Market Momentum Bitcoin has pulled back above the $116,000 mark. Data from Coingecko show BTC trading at $116,083, a daily move of 0.25% and up 3% over the past week. The market still remembers August 14, 2025, when BTC hit an all-time high of $124,450. Those price swings are part of the backdrop for why a whale moving coins draws extra interest now. Institutional Flows Pick Up Data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $757 million in inflows on Wednesday. That is the largest single-day number since July 17 and extends a three-day streak of positive flows. The steady inflows suggest bigger players are adding exposure, or at least reallocating capital into the market. Total crypto market cap at $3.95 trillion on the daily chart: TradingView   Stablecoin Reserves Hit Records Meanwhile, reports from CryptoQuant indicate Binance saw its largest net stablecoin inflow of the year on Monday, a little over $6 billion. Binance’s stablecoin reserves are reported to be near $40 billion, while aggregate stablecoin holdings across exchanges hit about $70 billion last week. Related Reading: ETF Dreams For Dogecoin: Serious Possibility Or Just Hype? New Layer Of Intrigue The sudden movement of coins untouched for more than a decade has added a new layer of intrigue to Bitcoin’s latest rally. With the asset holding above $116,000, ETFs drawing hundreds of millions in inflows, and record stablecoin balances sitting on exchanges, the market is flush with liquidity and attention. Whether this wallet activity signals profit-taking, repositioning, or something else entirely, it highlights the enduring power of early bets on Bitcoin and the continued influence of long-term holders on today’s market. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

The US Federal Reserve prepares to announce its latest decision on interest rates. This highly anticipated event has the potential to act as a powerful catalyst for the Bitcoin market, with many analysts and investors speculating that a rate cut could trigger a significant breakout. How A Rate Cut Could Unleash The Next Bitcoin Bull Run The global financial community is entering a crucial week. According to a post on X by crypto commentator Thomas Lauder, in 7 days, the US Federal Reserve will decide whether to cut dollar interest rates, a move that could have far-reaching effects on both traditional finance and crypto markets.  Related Reading: $375,000 Bitcoin? Market Veteran Says It’s Closer Than You Think This rate cut could give a strong boost to the price of Bitcoin and other financial assets. Lauder explains that a Federal Reserve interest rate cut would have a direct impact on financial markets by lowering the cost of borrowing and injecting liquidity into the market, a dynamic that has historically benefited Bitcoin and other risk assets. The market’s anticipation is high, as evidenced by predictions on Polymarket, where 83% of bettors are forecasting a 25 basis point cut, and another 14% are betting on an even larger reduction. In the meantime, the market operators are positioning themselves ahead of the news. As a result, Lauder predicts that Bitcoin will experience days of high volatility leading up to the announcement. Why Companies Are Accumulating Bitcoin Relentlessly While the other analyst believes that the coming days will likely see high volatility for BTC as the Fed announces the interest rate cut, notable institutional accumulation is still ongoing. MikeWMunz has explained why certain companies are accumulating Bitcoin at a feverish pace even as their share prices stall. These companies are not weak in lettuce hands, and they are capable of delaying the dopamine hits for when it’s appropriate. Related Reading: Corporate Bitcoin Allocation Climbs As Companies Invest 22% Of Profits: Study However, many of these companies are set to be included in the largest indexes, ensuring they receive steady passive flows as Bitcoin executes its next parabolic move upward. MikeWMunz describes this as a lightning in a bottle, which is a perfect moment of strategy, market mechanics, and timing. Furthermore, he pointed out that the shortsighted views and lack of vision of many investors prevent them from understanding this inevitable outcome. The groundwork and foundation for a new financial era is being built right now, and the lack of patience and inability to see this bigger picture is what holds back many investors from realizing the full potential of this shift. “This does not apply to the leaders of these companies, who are pioneering the ships in their respective markets,” he mentioned.” Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin miners are shifting strategies as the BTC price rebounds back above $114,000 after declining from all-time highs. Instead of sticking to familiar patterns, mining firms are adjusting how they manage their holdings and operations, signaling a change in the status quo as market conditions slowly recover. Bitcoin Miners Shift From Selling To Accumulating A new analysis from CryptoQuant suggests that Bitcoin miners are breaking away from historic patterns as BTC hovers above $114,000. The data reveals a significant structural shift in miner strategies, with long-term accumulation taking precedence over aggressive sell-offs, even during price surges.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Jackpot: Solo Bitcoin Miner Nets $360,000 To Beat 1 In 800 Odds The Miners’ Position Index (MPI) has historically been a crucial market sentiment indicator. CryptoQuant revealed that sharp spikes in MPI often occurred during two critical periods—pre-halving, when miners sold operations of their holdings to secure liquidity, and late bull markets, when they took advantage of retail-driven price momentum.  However, the trend is markedly different in the current cycle. While some pre-halving selling has been recorded, the signature late-cycle liquidations are noticeably absent. According to CryptoQuant, this deviation suggests that external factors such as Spot ETF approvals from sovereign economies’ recognition of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve could be encouraging miners to hold onto their BTC rather than liquidate it.  The resilience of the Bitcoin network itself represents another critical aspect of this shift. Mining difficulty has soared to unprecedented levels, with its trajectory following what analysts have dubbed the “Banana Zone.” Such sporadic growth not only underscores miners’ confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential but also reduces the likelihood of a miner-driven supply shock hitting the market.  Transaction fees provide further confirmation of the recent changes in miner strategies. CryptoQuant notes that in previous cycles, spiking fees were usually precursors to overheated market conditions and inevitable downturns. Despite significant fee increases, Bitcoin’s price action has remained steady this time, showing a stepwise rally rather than a blow-off top. The pattern strongly supports the theory that miners are strategically accumulating BTC instead of releasing supply during short-term demand surges.  Mining Difficulty Rises Despite BTC Price Volatility  Even as miners adopt a longer-term strategy, Bitcoin’s mining difficulty continues to top the charts, climbing past 136 trillion earlier this week and marking a new all-time high. While this milestone highlights the network’s unmatched resilience, it comes during increased volatility in Bitcoin’s price action.  Related Reading: Shakeout Pattern Says Bitcoin Price Is Not Done, Why It’s Headed Above $130,000 Notably, crypto analyst Matthew Hyland pointed out that Bitcoin’s monthly Bollinger Bands have reached their most extreme level in history, signaling an unprecedented surge in volatility across the market.  In addition, over the past month, Bitcoin has dropped 4%, retreating from its ATH level above $124,000 to its current level of $114,000, according to CoinMarketCap. Although its 2.73% increase to $114,000 in the last week signals growing momentum, market analysts remain cautious about what lies ahead. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin has slipped more than 8% from its all-time high of $124,500, fueling bearish sentiment across the market. While this correction is relatively modest compared to previous drawdowns in the current cycle, the tone surrounding BTC has turned noticeably negative. Traders and investors appear cautious, with many questioning whether the market has the strength to stage another push higher in the short term. Related Reading: Ethereum Network Activity Heats Up As Fees Hit $1.4M In 24H Top analyst Axel Adler provided insights that add important context to the current landscape. According to Adler, Bitcoin is now trading with only a 4% markup above the average purchase price of Short-Term Holders (STHs). This minimal premium highlights how close BTC is to levels where recent buyers entered the market. Historically, such narrow margins suggest that confidence among short-term participants is fragile, as even slight downward moves could push many holders into losses. This dynamic helps explain why sentiment feels heavier than the actual size of the correction might justify. While long-term fundamentals remain intact, the short-term picture reflects a tense phase in which buyers are hesitant, and bears see an opportunity to press their advantage. For Bitcoin, holding above critical support may prove decisive in shaping the next move. Bitcoin, Fed Cuts, And The Need For Discounts According to Adler, the recent Federal Reserve rate cut provides a supportive backdrop for risk assets like Bitcoin. Lower rates traditionally boost liquidity, which tends to benefit equities and crypto alike. However, Adler cautions against assuming that monetary easing guarantees a smooth rally. He reminds investors that markets often behave with a “buy the rumor, sell the news” pattern, where initial optimism gives way to volatility as traders lock in profits. Adler emphasizes that the real demand for Bitcoin will only emerge if the market presents obvious discounts. Historically, sharp pullbacks have attracted sidelined buyers, fueling stronger rallies. At present, Bitcoin trades with a 15–20% markup relative to the average purchase price of Short-Term Holders. This is a danger zone, as data shows that at these levels, holders typically begin offloading coins, adding selling pressure. For comparison, at Bitcoin’s previous all-time high, the markup was only 13%. This dynamic highlights how different the current phase is from earlier in the cycle. In January 2023 and 2024, markups surged as high as 40%, yet investors continued buying, confident they could resell at higher prices in the future. Now, however, the bull cycle is far more mature. The appetite to chase highs has faded, with investors wary of getting trapped in positions that might remain underwater for years. For Bitcoin to reignite real demand, Adler argues, it will need to trade at more attractive levels that clearly signal value. In a mature market, buyers no longer blindly pile in at peaks—they wait for corrections. This shift underscores that sustained rallies require not just liquidity, but also meaningful discounts to entice fresh capital. Related Reading: Bitcoin Futures Pressure Score Hits 18%: Shorts Are Losing Momentum Price Action Details: Key Levels To Watch Bitcoin is trading at $114,042, showing renewed strength after rebounding from early September lows near $110,000. The 12-hour chart highlights that BTC is now pressing into resistance around the 100 SMA at $114,679, a level that has acted as a ceiling during recent attempts to rally. A decisive break and close above this moving average could confirm momentum and open the way toward $116,000, with the major resistance at $123,217 as the next target. The 50 SMA at $112,025 and the 200 SMA at $112,167 are now aligned as short-term support, suggesting that Bitcoin has built a solid base in the $112,000 zone. This cluster of support levels provides bulls with a strong defensive line to sustain momentum. If BTC holds above this area, the bias favors a continuation higher. Related Reading: Whales Are Buying Solana: Two Wallets Pull 376K Tokens From Binance However, the market is not without risk. Failure to break through the 100 SMA convincingly could trigger another period of sideways consolidation, or even a retest of $112,000. A deeper rejection may put $110,000 back in play. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin is trading at a critical level after several days of tight consolidation between $115,000 and $110,000. The price action reflects a tense standoff, with bulls working to regain ground while mounting selling pressure keeps gains in check. Despite the cautious mood, momentum appears to be leaning bullish, as buyers continue to defend key support zones and prepare for the next decisive move. Related Reading: Ethereum Network Activity Heats Up As Fees Hit $1.4M In 24H Adding weight to this outlook, top analyst Maartunn shared new insights showing that dormant Bitcoin coins are beginning to move onchain. This activity suggests that long-term holders, who typically sit through volatility, are repositioning themselves, marking a significant shift in market dynamics. Importantly, these flows also align with the broader trend of capital rotation between Bitcoin and Ethereum, a pattern that has gained traction throughout this cycle. Such behavior is often seen at key inflection points, where profit-taking and reallocations set the stage for the next phase of the market. For Bitcoin, the movement of dormant supply could indicate growing conviction that liquidity will continue to fuel upside. As BTC hovers within this narrow range, the interplay between long-term holders and shifting capital flows may decide whether the breakout resolves higher. Bitcoin Supply Awakens: What It Means for the Market According to analyst Maartunn, a remarkable 604,549 BTC aged between three and five years have moved onchain since March 9, 2025. This is not just a minor adjustment—it represents one of the largest shifts in long-term holder behavior in recent memory. Dormant coins of this age bracket typically belong to holders who have sat through multiple cycles, signaling deep conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term value. When these coins move, the market pays close attention. The reasons behind this sudden activity are still debated. Some analysts argue this is clear profit-taking behavior. After holding for several years, these investors may see the recent rally toward $115,000 as an opportune moment to secure gains. Large holders, sometimes referred to as whales, are known to time exits strategically, often around cycle peaks or when volatility increases. Their activity could explain some of the selling pressure observed in recent weeks. Others, however, interpret these moves differently. Rather than a sign of weakness, they see it as capital rotation—a reallocation from Bitcoin into Ethereum and select altcoins. This aligns with the broader trend of diversification as institutions and high-net-worth investors explore opportunities outside BTC. With Ethereum’s strong fee generation and rising adoption across DeFi and layer-2 ecosystems, such shifts could represent strategic positioning for the next growth wave. Regardless of the motive, the data confirms that long-term holders are actively reshaping the market landscape. Whether this results in temporary selling pressure or sparks a new phase of capital distribution across the crypto sector, one thing is clear: Bitcoin’s dormant supply is no longer idle, and its reawakening marks a critical development for this cycle. Related Reading: Bitcoin Futures Pressure Score Hits 18%: Shorts Are Losing Momentum Price Consolidates Below Key Resistance Bitcoin is currently trading around $113,897, showing signs of recovery after bouncing from lows near $110,000 earlier this month. The daily chart highlights a constructive rebound, with BTC now testing key resistance levels. The 50-day SMA at $114,587 sits just above the current price, acting as the first major hurdle for bulls to clear. A decisive break above this level could open the door toward $116,000 and eventually retest the cycle high at $123,217, marked as the major resistance zone. On the downside, the 100-day SMA at $112,204 is providing short-term support, while the 200-day SMA at $102,077 remains a crucial long-term floor. As long as BTC holds above $112,000, the bias leans toward continuation higher, with buyers steadily regaining confidence. Related Reading: Bitcoin CDD Indicator Signals LTH Distribution As Demand Offsets Pressure The structure suggests that Bitcoin is building momentum for another push, though overhead resistance remains heavy. If bulls fail to reclaim the 50-day SMA convincingly, price could slip back into the $112,000–$110,000 range, keeping consolidation in play. Holding current levels and breaking above the short-term moving averages would strengthen the bullish case, while rejection could prolong the sideways chop before any larger breakout attempt. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin climbed past $114,000 this week, pushing markets higher after a surprisingly weak reading on producer prices. According to reports, the move followed a pullback in US PPI that many traders read as a sign the Federal Reserve may be able to start cutting rates. Related Reading: Institutional Adoption Rises: 21X Brings Chainlink Into Europe’s Tokenized Securities Market The jump was quick and loud on price charts. It caught the attention of both retail traders and bigger money. Cooling Inflation Spurs Rate Cut Bets According to published data, US Producer Price Index (PPI) fell to about 2.6% year-on-year, while core PPI — which strips out food and energy — came in near 2.8%. On a monthly basis, PPI showed a drop, one of the first such moves since March 2024. Based on reports, those weaker numbers fed hopes that the Fed could ease policy sooner rather than later, and markets reacted accordingly. Bitcoin’s Rally And Broader Crypto Moves Bitcoin hit roughly $113,850 on some exchanges before trading above $114,000, and Ethereum climbed past $4,400 as part of the same upswing. Reports have disclosed that institutional flows and stablecoin liquidity helped lift prices, and that investor positioning shifted toward risk assets after the data. Traders were watching support around $112,500-$113,000 and resistance near $115,000-$115,500 as the session progressed. Momentum was strong, but some caution remained. Bitcoin’s Technical Levels And Flows Market technicians pointed to clear levels. If support near $112,500 breaks, it could open the way to a short pullback. If $115,500 is cleared, buyers may push for higher ranges. At the same time, some on-chain indicators showed rising transfers into exchanges, a sign that profit taking could be ahead. Reports have disclosed that both demand and supply signals will be watched closely by desks and algorithmic funds. What Could Slow This Move While PPI cooled, other data could change the picture. Consumer inflation and jobs figures are still to be watched, and those reports can keep the Fed on guard. Rate cuts are now being priced in by some traders, perhaps as soon as September, but that outcome is not guaranteed. If consumer prices re-accelerate or job strength stays high, easing could be delayed and markets may retrace gains. Related Reading: Tighter Premiums Put Crypto Treasuries On Risky Road, According To NYDIG What Investors Should Watch Next According to market commentators, the key near-term items are the upcoming CPI release, monthly jobs data, and Fed commentary. Also important are flows into spot products and the dollar’s direction — a firmer dollar would likely pressure risky assets. Traders will also keep an eye on how quickly liquidity moves from stablecoins into BTC and ETH, and whether profit-taking appears at the big technical thresholds already mentioned. Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) has declined more than 10% from its latest all-time high (ATH) of $124,128, recorded on Binance in August 2025. However, fresh on-chain data suggests that the cryptocurrency may be preparing for its next bullish wave, as miners are starting to show a structural shift in behavior. Bitcoin Miners Shift Strategy – New High Ahead? According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Avocado_onchain, recent on-chain data hints at a structural shift in Bitcoin miner behavior. At the same time, various other metrics point toward increasing resilience in the Bitcoin network. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment On Binance Turns Bullish – But Is The Market Setting A Trap? The analyst brought attention to the Miners’ Position Index (MPI), a metric that has historically shown sharp increases in two scenarios – before a halving when miners strategically sell their holdings, and in late stages of a bull market when they dump their holdings on retail investors. For the uninitiated, the MPI measures the ratio of Bitcoin miners’ outflows – coins sent to exchanges – relative to their one-year moving average. A high MPI indicates that miners are selling more BTC than usual – signaling increased selling pressure – while a low MPI suggests miners are holding or accumulating. However, the current market cycle shows a different trend. While some pre-halving selling was evident, the late bull market sell-offs have been noticeably absent. According to Avocado_onchain, there could be two major reasons for the lack of sell-off. First, the approval and success of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) may have had some influence on holders. According to data from SoSoValue, the total net assets tied in spot BTC ETFs currently stand at $144.3 billion – representing 6.5% of BTC’s total market cap. The other potential reason for lukewarm sales of BTC at this stage of the market could be the digital asset’s rapidly rising adoption as a strategic reserve asset by major economies around the world. As a result, miners may be shifting from short-term gains to long-term accumulation. In addition, Bitcoin mining difficulty also recently reached a new ATH, as its growth curve developed a so-called “banana zone” of sharp increases. The surge in mining difficulty reflects rising participation in the Bitcoin network, in addition to strengthening its security. Opinion On BTC Is Split While the miners appear to be holding BTC for the long haul, some analysts predict that the top cryptocurrency may not be out of the woods yet. Crypto analyst Daan Crypto remarked that BTC may be heading below $100,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Holds $112,000 Support As Binance Whale Activity Cools Off – What’s Ahead? That said, other analysts are more optimistic about BTC’s prospects. In a recent analysis, fellow CryptoQuant contributor CoinCare stated that BTC may have another major leg up in the bull cycle. Meanwhile, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee forecasted that BTC may surge to $200,000 by the end of 2025. At press time, BTC trades at $114,139, up 1.5% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s latest bounce off a support level at $110,000 has coincided with a technical observation shared by crypto analyst CrypFlow, who highlighted a shakeout pattern that’s currently playing out, which has always preceded the strongest legs of Bitcoin’s bull runs. According to the analyst, the ongoing shakeout pattern setup may be laying the foundation for another rally that could take Bitcoin above its all-time high and beyond $130,000. The Anatomy Of Bitcoin’s Shakeout Pattern Bitcoin’s price action in the past 24 hours has been highlighted by intense volatility, opening the day just above $113,000 before dipping to $110,800 and quickly rebounding to now trading back above $112,000 at the time of writing. However, expanding the short-term price action into a longer one shows that Bitcoin is trying to break above a consolidation zone with a green weekly candle following a green close last week. Related Reading: Looking For A Good Bitcoin Entry? Crypto Research Firm Reveals The Best Time To Buy BTC Notably, technical analysis of the weekly candlestick timeframe chart from crypto analyst CrypFlow shows that this price action is part of a shakeout pattern that’s characteristic of Bitcoin. According to the analyst, Bitcoin never trends higher in a straight line. Instead, each expansion phase in its market cycle is preceded by two steps of a consolidation and a shakeout.  Shakeouts were nothing more than quick downside wicks earlier in this cycle. More recently, however, the corrections have become deeper and longer with full-bodied weekly candlesticks that drove out many investors before the next expansion phase began.  The chart below, which was shared by the analyst, shows this repeating pattern of shakeouts in purple circles and expansions in green boxes since the cycle bottom in 2022, with the latest dip in the last week of August slotting neatly into the same framework of a purple shakeout. Why Bitcoin Is Headed Above $130,000 As shown in the chart above, the most recent break below the consolidation box is somewhat shorter than the previous two. Now, Bitcoin is climbing back into its range, and if it follows its previous movements since 2022, it could now be at the cusp of a new uptrend.  Related Reading: Fair Value Gap Suggests Bitcoin Price Is Going Higher, But Watch Out For This Crash At the time of writing, the stochastic RSI on the weekly chart has dipped to oversold levels and is on the verge of a bullish cross. If confirmed, this indicator could provide the momentum for Bitcoin’s next continuation of the step-like progression. In terms of a price prediction, the expansion phase highlighted in the analysis projects that Bitcoin may not only retest its current all-time high but also push into new price levels above $130,000. With Bitcoin currently trading around $112,200, reaching $130,000 would translate to a gain of roughly 15.8%.  A surge to $130,000 would most likely lift Bitcoin’s support base closer to its current all-time high around $124,000 before the next consolidation and shakeout. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is once again at a decisive moment after several days of tight consolidation around the $110K level. Bulls are making an effort to defend this critical support, while also eyeing the $113K resistance as the next key barrier. A breakout above it could provide the momentum needed for BTC to retest higher supply zones and reignite bullish sentiment. However, the market remains fragile, with volatility and fear weighing heavily on investor confidence. Related Reading: Bitcoin CDD Indicator Signals LTH Distribution As Demand Offsets Pressure Top analyst Axel Adler provided important context from the derivatives market. According to Adler, the Bitcoin Futures Pressure Score currently stands at 18%, which is considered low to moderate and closer to the neutral zone. This suggests that there is no overwhelming short pressure from leverage at this time. In practical terms, futures traders are not aggressively building short positions, nor are they significantly adding to long exposure. This balance reflects a cautious market environment where participants are waiting for a catalyst to determine direction. Until then, Bitcoin’s battle between $110K support and $113K resistance will remain the focal point, setting the stage for the next major move in either direction. Bitcoin Futures In Neutral Mode According to Adler, the current state of the futures market paints a picture of caution rather than conviction. With the Pressure Score at 18%, the indicator suggests a neutral environment where traders are neither aggressively building long positions nor stacking shorts. Adler explains that this lack of strong directional signals reflects an indecisive market, where participants are waiting for external catalysts before committing capital. The Pressure Score becomes particularly important in identifying potential downside risks. Adler notes that when the metric rises toward the 30–40% range, it indicates that shorts are being built up at an accelerated pace. In such cases, open interest increases faster than usual, creating conditions that often lead to sudden price dumps. For now, Bitcoin is not in that danger zone, but the market remains highly sensitive to shifts in sentiment. What adds to the current uncertainty is the weakening US labor market, which has fueled speculation about the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. Any surprise in economic data or Fed guidance could easily tip the balance, triggering volatility across crypto markets. As investors digest these signals, Bitcoin is expected to trade with increased choppiness in the coming days, with bulls and bears closely monitoring the $110K–$113K range as the decisive battleground. Related Reading: Whales Are Buying Solana: Two Wallets Pull 376K Tokens From Binance Technical Insights: Trading Between Key Levels Bitcoin is currently trading around $112,196, showing a modest recovery after testing lows near $110,000. The chart highlights a consolidation phase, with BTC holding above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at $112,102, while the 50-day SMA sits higher at $114,650, acting as immediate resistance. A decisive close above this level could open the path for Bitcoin to retest $116,000 and potentially challenge the major resistance at $123,217, marked by the summer peak. On the downside, the 200-day SMA at $101,980 provides a strong layer of support. As long as BTC remains above this level, the broader bullish structure remains intact despite recent volatility. However, repeated failures to break above the 50-day SMA may invite further consolidation, with risks of a retest of the $108,000–$110,000 zone if selling pressure re-emerges. Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Absorbs Supply In Batches: VDD Highlights Mature Bull Phase Bulls need to reclaim $114,650 to shift momentum toward the $120K region, while bears aim to defend resistance and push the price lower. The coming days are likely to determine whether Bitcoin resumes its broader uptrend or extends its correction. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

The Bitcoin bull cycles have always been similar in the fact that each one has always ended with the Bitcoin price multiples higher than the previous high. While the digital asset has hit new all-time highs this cycle, it is far from being multiples of the previous all-time high, and has yet to hit the 2x mark. However, with a lot of similarities popping up between this cycle and what was seen in 2017, there is still the possibility that the Bitcoin price will run higher from here. Bitcoin Price Mirroring 2021 Cycle Moves Crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader took to X (formerly Twitter) to share some similarities that they noticed between the current Bitcoin price trend and what was recorded back in 2017. Putting both charts side by side, the crypto analyst pointed out the ways in which the two cycles have performed similarly. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bear Case Says Price Is Headed Below $100,000, But Bulls Still Have A Chance, Here’s How One of the first things is how the bear market ended, which is highlighted by the red box in the shared charts. After some choppy movement, the bear market would come to an end with an initial breakout. This was followed by a short retracement, leading to the next step in the trend. The next box, the blue box, is the level of accumulation. This is where Bitcoin investors had loaded up their bags in anticipation of an upward move. Naturally, the accumulation lasted for a number of months before it was complete, and the breakout occurred. The third box is the green box, and the crypto analyst explains that this is the level that “launched portfolios.” Back in 2017, after the green box, the Bitcoin price rose rapidly and more than doubled by the time the rally was done, and with the current trend sitting in the green box, it carries some hefty bullish implications for the Bitcoin price. How High Can BTC Go From Here? Seeing how the Bitcoin price is mirroring the 2017 trend so far, it is likely to continue to play out in a similar way. From the green box, the price doubling like it did would mean that Bitcoin would end up crossing the $200,000 mark from here. Related Reading: XRP RSI Remains Bullish As Support Levels Hold, Price Eyes Break Above $3.6 The crypto analyst’s chart points toward the $220,000 mark, with some dips along the way that are expected to be eaten up quickly. The timeframe also seems similar, and if the trend holds, then this could play out in the next 3 months, leading into the year 2026. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to defend the $112,000 support level following days of tepid price action, unable to give a clear indication about the potential direction of its next move. Latest exchange data from Binance shows a recent dip in whale activity, suggesting BTC likely avoided another massive sell-off. Bitcoin Defends $112,000 Against Whale Sell-Off According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, recent data from the Binance crypto exchange shows that there was a sudden spike in whale activity on the exchange on September 7, when the BTC: Exchange Whale Ratio surged to 0.55. Related Reading: Bitcoin Withdrawal Wave Points To Another Major Leg Up In The Bull Cycle, Analyst Says However, this surge was quickly followed by a decline in the metric, as the BTC: Exchange Whale Ratio tumbled to 0.28, on September 8. However, the price remained stable around $112,500, suggesting that whale movements were short-lived and did not lead to a sell-off in BTC. The CryptoQuant analyst remarked that the fall in whale pressure toward the end of the period is a positive short-term signal. In essence, the likelihood of a sharp price correction driven by whale sell-offs on Binance is now significantly reduced. Arab Chain added: The frequent whale fluctuations in late August and early September highlight that major players are still moving large volumes – meaning risks remain, and the market could be caught off guard by a sudden move if substantial exchange inflows are converted into market orders. However, the analyst cautioned that the relationship is not always absolute. Although the rise in the metric has often been associated with a fall in the price of BTC, not every spike has led to a clear decline in price. As seen in the above chart, there have been instances of whale activity surging beyond 0.5 for multiple days – accompanied by positive net inflows to exchanges. Arab Chain noted that such dynamics may lead to a failure to maintain the $112,000 level, and possibly trigger a drop to $108,000. Historical data for September shows that the beginning of the month is typically quiet in terms of whale pressure on Binance, except for the occasional quick jump. While this offers a safer environment for a gradual rise, it also gives whales a chance to exert pressure on the market, especially if the overall demand is weak. Is BTC Yet To Hit Its Peak? While BTC is currently trading roughly 10% below its latest all-time high (ATH) of $124,128, some crypto experts opine that the flagship cryptocurrency is yet to hit its peak for this market cycle. Related Reading: Fair Value Gap Suggests Bitcoin Price Is Going Higher, But Watch Out For This Crash In recent analysis, Bitcoin researcher Sminston predicted that BTC may top out anywhere between $200,000 – $290,000 sometime in 2026. At press time, BTC trades at $112,639, down 0.1% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Germany’s much-publicized Bitcoin seizure campaign has come under fresh scrutiny after blockchain analysts revealed that nearly $5 billion worth of BTC has remained untouched. The finding raises intrigue within the crypto community, as questions swirl over whether the funds are lost, frozen, or simply being held in reserve. Why The Coins Remain Untouched In an X post, Elite KOL Crypto Patel, who is also associated with CoinMarketCap and Binance, has highlighted that Germany’s Bitcoin crackdown has encountered a major roadblock. Blockchain analytics firm Arkham has revealed a massive trove of untouched BTC connected to the now-defunct Movie2K piracy site, suggesting that German authorities’ seizure efforts may have hit a wall. Related Reading: El Salvador’s Bitcoin Journey Hits 4-Year Mark, Results Still Divisive According to the report, approximately 45,000 BTC, valued at around $5 billion, has been sitting dormant across over 100 wallets since 2019. These coins are believed to still be under the control of the site’s original operators. Earlier in 2024, German authorities successfully seized nearly 50,000 BTC, which were later liquidated for about $2.9 billion. However, despite that high-profile move, this new revelation highlights that a significant portion of the Movie2K fortune is still out of reach. Bitcoin continues to gain notable mainstream adoption among prominent figures, institutions, and countries. Crypto expert Hashley Giles explained that Bitcoin is an ideal balance sheet asset for a wide range of profitable businesses of all sizes and across all industries.  In the United Kingdom, opening an e-money account is a straightforward way for companies to gain BTC exposure without straining existing banking relationships. Accounting is also simple when businesses focus on accumulating rather than trading, removing the complexity of constant mark-to-market volatility. Beyond ease of integration, Bitcoin offers unmatched liquidity. Companies can instantly convert BTC into pounds within seconds whenever business performance requires it, and even on weekends when banks are closed.  Compared to the ultra-low interest rates on business bank deposit savings in the UK, those with slightly better yields often require 90-day or longer notice periods before funds can be accessed. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has no notice period, making it both flexible and efficient. Maintaining Bitcoin’s Security While Unlocking Liquidity Bitcoin has long been the most trusted digital asset. However, to fulfill its potential and truly power real economies, it requires a stable unit of account. BSquaredNetwork emphasized that the missing piece is U2, a BTC-backed, USD-pegged stablecoin designed to preserve Bitcoin’s security while unlocking global liquidity. Related Reading: Bitcoin Treasury Purchases Down Amid Record Holdings – What Does This Mean? BSquaredNetwork’s vision extends beyond simple payments. With U2 as a stable unit of account, BTC can transform into the settlement engine for payment, decentralized finance (DeFi), and even AI-to-AI microtransactions. This innovation bridges the gap between BTC’s digital gold properties and its potential as the foundation of the intelligent economy. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s recent price action has positioned the cryptocurrency at a pivotal crossroads. While it has successfully broken above a key long-term trendline, it remains locked in a consolidation pattern below its all-time high (ATH). This dual dynamic creates a compelling and uncertain environment, leaving investors to ponder the most critical question in the market: Is the next explosive rally finally loading? Bitcoin Breaks Long-Term Trendline: A Familiar Cycle Signal CryptoELITES, a seasoned crypto analyst, recently revealed a highly bullish perspective on Bitcoin’s recent price action. According to the analysis, Bitcoin has successfully broken above a key long-term trendline on its chart, a move that signals a significant shift in the market’s trajectory. Related Reading: Bitcoin Finds Crucial Support On Bull Market Band — Will Momentum Hold Following this breakout, Bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase. This pattern is particularly noteworthy because it mirrors the behavior seen in previous market cycles. Such post-breakout consolidation has historically served as a precursor to much larger price movements. Based on this historical precedent and the current chart pattern, the analyst is confident that a major move is on the horizon.  BTC Faces Strong Rejection At Key Resistance Zone Despite the optimistic signals emerging from Bitcoin’s recent trendline breakout, not all analysts are convinced the market is ready for a full-fledged rally. In a recent update, Alpha Crypto Signal pointed out that BTC is still facing strong rejection at a key horizontal resistance zone on the daily chart. This resistance continues to weigh heavily on price action, keeping the broader structure tilted toward a bearish stance. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Recovery Hopes Rise – Can Bulls Push It Past Resistance? The analyst emphasized that unless Bitcoin achieves a convincing breakout above its ATH, any upward movement from current levels risks being a temporary recovery. In the analyst’s view, such moves could easily turn into a “dead cat bounce,” a short-lived rally that fails to establish sustainable bullish momentum.  Adding to this caution, Alpha Crypto Signal also expressed skepticism about the ongoing altcoin rally, describing it as a potential liquidity trap. According to the expert, market makers could be using this surge to lure retail traders into premature long positions before triggering the next major downward leg. This strategy has been a recurring pattern in past cycles and should not be underestimated by market participants. Still, the crypto analyst acknowledged that short-term opportunities do exist. The expert emphasized that longing bounces remain a viable strategy, provided traders employ strict stop-losses and maintain disciplined risk management. Presently, the market is in a “trap territory,” which demands precision and caution, trade the moves, but avoid getting caught in setups designed to shake out the unwary. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Crypto analyst Ash Crypto has revealed when the Bitcoin price is likely to reach $150,000, while Ethereum rallies to $8,000 and the altcoin season begins in full force. This comes as the crypto market looks to rebound, with BTC attempting a successful break above $112,000.  On Bitcoin Price and Ethereum Rally And Altcoin Season Timeline In an X post, Ash Crypto declared that the Bitcoin price will rally to $150,000, Ethereum will rally to $8,000, and the altcoin season will happen in the fourth quarter of this year. During that period, he expects altcoins to pump between 10x and 50x. In line with this, he urged market participants to relax and be patient. Related Reading: Fair Value Gap Suggests Bitcoin Price Is Going Higher, But Watch Out For This Crash In another X post, the analyst stated that the Bitcoin price will likely bottom this month. Ash Crypto remarked that he is expecting BTC to form a low between $94,000 and $100,000, making everyone believe that $124,000 was the top. When that happens, he predicts that the flagship crypto will then record a massive breakout in October and reach between $150,000 and $180,000 by December.  Crypto analyst Stockmoney also indicated that market participants can expect significant moves from the Bitcoin price and Ethereum in Q4 of this year, while an altcoin season could be on the horizon. In an X post, the analyst stated that BTC is following the same pattern throughout the bull market.  Based on this, he remarked that impulsive moves happen in the fourth quarter, and this is where most pumps historically occur. Stockmoney noted that these rallies are usually preceded by a longer consolidation period in the form of a falling wedge or bullish megaphone. His accompanying chart showed that the Bitcoin price could reach as high as $180,000 by year-end.  Altcoin Season May Already Be Starting Market commentator Milk Road suggested that altcoin season may already be starting, even as the Bitcoin price and Ethereum find their footing. In an X post, Milk Road noted that ETH has outperformed BTC over the last two quarters. ETH is up around 110% in the second and third quarters, while BTC is up 34% during this period. Related Reading: Interest In Altcoin Season Crashes 88% In August As Ethereum Price Tanks This represents an over 300% return for Ethereum over the Bitcoin price. In line with this, Milk Road declared that historically, this kind of flipping often marks the start of altcoin season. Blockchain Center data shows that the market is currently closer to altcoin season than Bitcoin season. More altcoins have continued to outperform BTC over the last 90 days. However, 75% of the top 50 coins by market cap still need to outperform BTC for it to be considered officially altcoin season.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $112,000, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is currently trading in a narrow range, caught between the $113K resistance and the $110K support level. Bulls are struggling to regain momentum after recent pullbacks, while mounting selling pressure continues to weigh on short-term sentiment. The tight consolidation reflects investor indecision, with both sides waiting for a decisive breakout that could shape the market’s next major move. Related Reading: Ethereum Dominates Trading Volume Despite Market Cool-Off – Details Despite the near-term weakness, the long-term view remains more constructive. According to top analyst Darkfost, the 30-day average Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) remains elevated but has started to cool off. Notably, its value has already dropped by half from its previous peak, signaling a slowdown in old coin movements. This decline suggests that the heaviest phase of long-term holder distribution may be easing, providing the market with some breathing room. If this cooling trend continues, it could reinforce Bitcoin’s long-term bullish outlook, even as short-term volatility persists. The combination of resilient support levels and declining long-term holder selling pressure may set the stage for a stronger recovery once external catalysts, such as Federal Reserve policy shifts, provide clarity. Strong LTH Movement Meets Resilient Demand Darkfost shared that the market has just experienced the strongest movement of old Bitcoin (LTHs) in this cycle so far. Long-term holders, who typically keep their coins dormant for extended periods, have been moving significant amounts of BTC back into circulation. This is a noteworthy development because it represents the most intense wave of long-term holder activity since the current bull cycle began. What makes this event particularly striking is that despite the heavy selling pressure from these seasoned holders, Bitcoin’s price has only corrected between 10% and 13% from its recent highs. By historical standards, this is a relatively modest drawdown, suggesting that the market remains resilient. Darkfost points out that the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric is crucial here. CDD tracks how long BTC has been held before being moved. When older coins are suddenly spent, it typically reflects distribution by experienced holders—often interpreted as profit-taking or a shift in positioning. A spike in CDD, therefore, signals significant selling pressure. However, the key takeaway is that demand has so far absorbed this spike remarkably well. Institutional inflows, treasury accumulation, and strong market liquidity appear to be offsetting the selling activity. While this doesn’t completely remove downside risk—especially if further long-term holders decide to exit—the market’s ability to withstand such a strong wave of distribution without a deeper crash is encouraging. The broader implication is that Bitcoin’s structure remains strong, even as it faces temporary challenges. If demand continues to hold firm, this phase of redistribution may ultimately serve as a healthy reset, setting the stage for the next leg higher. Still, investors should remain cautious: the market is not out of the woods just yet. Related Reading: Bitcoin LTH Aging Velocity Turns Negative: Distribution Phase Unfolds Price Testing Support After Pullback Bitcoin is currently trading around $112,870, staging a modest recovery after a pullback from its all-time high near $124,500. The chart shows that BTC has been in a consolidation phase following months of strong gains, with price action now hovering above the 100-day moving average (green line) and testing the mid-term trend structure. The 50-day moving average (blue line) is slightly above the current price, acting as short-term resistance. A decisive break above this level could open the door for another attempt at the $120K–$123K zone, which remains the critical resistance for bulls to reclaim in order to re-enter price discovery. Related Reading: Bitcoin Cycle Structure Questioned As VDD Mirrors Historic Tops On the downside, support is forming around the $110K–$108K range, close to the rising 100-day moving average, which has held well during previous corrections. A breakdown below this level would risk a deeper retracement toward the 200-day moving average (red line) near $82K, though such a move would require strong selling pressure. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

JPMorgan’s US trading desk is cautioning clients that a widely expected Federal Reserve rate cut on September 17 could mark a near-term peak for risk assets rather than a new leg higher—an outcome that would not spare crypto. In a note flagged by desk head Andrew Tyler, the bank writes: “We have concerns that the September 17 Fed meeting which delivers a 25bp cut could turn into a ‘Sell the News’ event as investors pullback to consider macro data, Fed’s reaction function, potentially stretched positioning, a weaker corporate buyback bid, and waning participation from the Retail investor.” The timing matters. The Fed’s next policy meeting runs September 16–17, with a statement and press conference scheduled for Wednesday, September 17. That calendar alone has become a catalyst as traders position around both the size of the cut and the tone of the guidance. Related Reading: Crypto Markets Enter Their Most Crucial Macro Week In 2025 Yet Standard Chartered, pointing to a labor market that has cooled far faster than anticipated, now expects the Fed to deliver a 50-basis-point move. “August labor market data has paved the way for a ‘catch-up’ 50 basis point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, similar to what occurred at this time last year,” the bank said, after US nonfarm payrolls rose by just 22,000 in August and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%. Steve Englander, global head of G10FX research at Standard Chartered, discusses the need for the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 50 basis points at the September meeting and why he would consider anything less to be a policy error https://t.co/TJQBGIytIm pic.twitter.com/VP2rVusiA5 — Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) September 8, 2025 JPMorgan’s desk is not abandoning its “lower-conviction Tactical Bullish” stance, but it is urging investors to carry insurance into the event. In addition to recommending that equity investors “consider” adding or increasing gold exposure as cut expectations sap the dollar, Tyler’s team spelled out more explicit hedges for a volatility shock: “we like VIX call spreads or VXX longs as a hedge, as well as parts of Defensives.” The macro backdrop has indeed turned more complicated. August payrolls barely grew and prior data were revised down, while the unemployment rate rose to a near four-year high, developments that have hardened expectations for policy easing but also raised the specter of a growth scare. Meanwhile, gold has been screaming higher—printing successive record highs above $3,600/oz—as investors price both easier policy and broader political-economic risk. Those concurrent signals—weakening labor, stronger bullion—frame why a rate cut may not automatically equal “risk-on” for beta. Crypto Faces Volatility Test For crypto, the read-through is two-sided and highly path dependent. On one hand, the same jobs-driven repricing that has juiced gold has also supported bitcoin in recent sessions as traders lean into the idea of easier money and a softer dollar—classic tailwinds for risk assets and for store-of-value narratives alike. Related Reading: Crypto Bull Run: Probability Of Fed Rate Cuts In September Almost At 100% On the other hand, a mechanical “equities down, vol up” impulse around the decision would likely transmit into crypto assets, where cross-asset de-risking and margin unwinds have historically amplified intraday swings. That tension is visible in current coverage: bitcoin has bounced back toward the $112k area alongside rate-cut bets, yet several market observers warn that a run-of-the-mill 25bp move—especially if framed as a “hawkish cut”—may fail to spark a sustained crypto rally. Notably, a “catch-up” 50bp cut, as Standard Chartered projects, would accelerate the compression in real yields and could weaken the dollar at the margin—conditions that have tended to support bitcoin and liquidity-sensitive altcoins when the move is not seen as recessionary triage. Conversely, a smaller or caveated cut could deliver precisely the “sell the news” pattern JPMorgan warns about, with equities and high-beta assets like crypto marking lower first before reassessing the glide path. History is no lodestar—post-cut outcomes have ranged from strong rallies in mid-cycle adjustments to drawdowns when cuts presaged recession—but it does argue for elevated realized volatility around the first step. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $112,739. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is currently at a crossroads, caught between bullish hopes and bearish pressure. Bulls are struggling to reclaim the $115K level, while bears have been unable to keep BTC below $110K, leaving the market in a tense state of uncertainty. This indecision comes as volatility increases ahead of the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting, where investors expect a possible announcement on interest rate cuts. Such a decision could significantly impact risk assets, including Bitcoin, by shaping liquidity conditions in global markets. Related Reading: Ethereum Dominates Trading Volume Despite Market Cool-Off – Details Top analyst Axel Adler highlights that as of today, it has been 504 days since the last halving, a milestone that places the market in a mature phase of the bull regime. By comparing the current cycle with the previous two, Adler suggests that Bitcoin is showing characteristics consistent with late-cycle behavior. While this phase often brings heightened volatility and profit-taking, it also underscores the broader strength of the cycle, supported by institutional demand and long-term adoption trends. Bitcoin Redistribution Patterns Signal A Sustainable Cycle Adler explains that in this cycle, Bitcoin has displayed a unique redistribution pattern compared to past bull runs. In March, when BTC traded near $70,000, the market witnessed an extreme spike in Value Days Destroyed (VDD), a signal of significant long-term holder (LTH) activity. This was followed by two additional, but more moderate, distribution waves near $98,000 and $117,000. Importantly, these later waves did not surpass the March extremum, suggesting that selling pressure from LTHs has been segmented and less overwhelming than in prior cycles. This behavior points toward more sustainable redistribution, primarily due to institutional demand. Rather than one explosive top driven by panic or retail frenzy, supply is exiting in batches after each new all-time high. Institutional buyers, ETFs, and corporate treasuries are absorbing this selling, which spreads peaks across a longer period and creates stretched-out cycle dynamics. Looking ahead, final conclusions about the cycle’s ultimate peak hinge on the emergence of the Peak Flag, a well-established late-cycle signal. The Peak Flag is triggered when the spot price trades at roughly 11 times higher than the LTH realized price. Historically, this ratio indicates that the market price has far outpaced the steadily climbing base cost of long-term holders. Based on current trajectories, the nearest window for such a setup is October–November 2025. However, this depends on conditions aligning: a surge in major LTH spending, a spike in short-term volatility, and then a gradual fading of that volatility. Related Reading: Bitcoin LTH Aging Velocity Turns Negative: Distribution Phase Unfolds Price Testing Short-Term Resistance Bitcoin is trading at $112,952, staging a rebound after holding above the $110K support zone. The chart shows BTC attempting to build momentum, but clear resistance lies around $114K, in line with the 100-day moving average (green line). A sustained move above this level would be critical to validate further upside. The 50-day moving average (blue line) is trending downward, currently acting as dynamic resistance and compressing price action. Until BTC reclaims it decisively, momentum remains fragile. On the downside, the 200-day moving average (red line) around $101,900 offers a deeper layer of long-term support, far below current levels. Related Reading: Old Bitcoin Supply Unlocks: 7,626 BTC Aged 3–5 Years Moves Onchain Structurally, BTC is forming a short-term higher low compared to early September, hinting at stabilization. However, bulls face the challenge of reclaiming lost ground quickly before bears reassert pressure. The broader resistance zone between $115K and $117K will likely determine whether BTC continues its consolidation or mounts a stronger recovery attempt. Holding above $110K keeps the bullish case intact, but without a breakout over $114K–$115K, Bitcoin risks slipping back into a choppy range. Traders should watch for volume confirmation on any breakout attempt. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Real Vision analyst Jamie Coutts argues that the current bitcoin market is being driven less by the asset’s four-year issuance cadence and far more by a broadening tide of global liquidity that is only now beginning to roll. In a wide-ranging interview with “Crypto Kid,” Coutts laid out a cycle framework anchored in policy, bank credit, and balance-sheet dynamics, while cautioning that classic momentum warnings and a cooling of corporate-treasury buying warrant respect. Why This Bitcoin Cycle Is Different “From a first-principles basis, global liquidity…drives risk assets,” Coutts said, adding that when he regresses bitcoin against his preferred liquidity composite—built from central-bank balance sheets, global money supply, FX reserves and elements of commercial/shadow banking—“you find that there’s explanatory power.” The danger, he warned, is over-fitting a moving relationship. “Markets are non-stationary… The correlation itself is a moving target, so I wouldn’t get too tied up in charts where you’re fine-tuning the lag. That lag period will change all the time.” Even so, he called the connection between liquidity and risk “as good as anything I’ve ever seen.” Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Most Resolute Diamond Hands Are Only Growing Older, Data Shows The interview opened on a point of contention in recent months: short-term divergences between rising global liquidity gauges and bitcoin’s price since US spot ETFs launched. Coutts pushed back on the idea that the linkage has “broken,” arguing that, sized to bitcoin’s volatility, the current gap is unremarkable. “Within the volatility scope of the asset, [there’s] nothing to worry about,” he said, while noting that his own dollar-sensitive proxy has “been flatlining for a little bit longer” than some popular versions. The right question, he stressed, is not micromanaging a lag but asking whether liquidity is rising on a multi-quarter view—and why. That macro lens leads directly to policy. Coutts expects an imminent inflection in Western central-bank posture, with rates likely headed lower and balance-sheet tightening at least tapering. “I think it’s very likely we’ll see interest-rate cuts in the September meeting,” he said. “The question is will the Fed also announce the end of QT or further tapering of QT?” Behind the pivot, in his view, is “fiscal dominance”: the US government’s outsized deficits and refinancing needs compelling monetary authorities to ensure smooth absorption of Treasury supply. “You can forget what they tell you about stable prices and unemployment. They are there to hold up the financial system… and now they are very much tied to the hip of the US government.” Crucially, Coutts reminded viewers that most money creation comes not from central banks but from commercial banks extending credit. “They’re responsible for around 85% to 90% of all the new money supply,” he said. In practice, liquidity can be “supercharged” when central banks also expand their own balance sheets or alter regulations to encourage banks to accumulate more Treasuries. He also framed Washington’s friendlier posture toward crypto and stablecoins through this prism, calling dollar stablecoins a potential new distribution rail for US debt. The result is a structural backdrop that, in his view, favors higher liquidity over time even if the near-term path is noisy. The Business Cycle On top of policy, Coutts layered the business cycle. He argued that the US is edging back into expansion—with recent ISM readings above 50 cited during the discussion—and that the “Goldilocks” setup emerges when an upturn in growth overlaps with a turn higher in liquidity. This, he suggested, is the deeper driver behind the familiar four-year bitcoin rhythm: “Are we really looking at a liquidity cycle that’s dressed up as a bitcoin halving cycle?” As issuance declines over successive halvings, he said, the supply-shock effect becomes “less significant,” while liquidity and growth conditions dominate allocations to “anti-debasement assets.” In that race, he added, “Bitcoin is the emergent anti-debasement asset of the present and the future,” with Ethereum alongside it on longer-horizon performance. China features prominently in Coutts’ map. He highlighted the People’s Bank of China’s rising balance sheet amid a property-led debt deflation and the government’s push to revive risk assets. “They’re really the only central bank that’s going up,” he said, linking that liquidity to improving Chinese equities and surging gold in yuan terms. In prior cycles, he noted, late-stage bitcoin strength lined up with Chinese equity peaks, and he currently sees “an inverse double head-and-shoulders” pattern pointing to roughly 5,100 on a key China equity benchmark. Two cycles are not “statistically significant,” he conceded, but the mechanism is straightforward: “What’s driving Chinese equities, what’s driving bitcoin? The same thing—it’s liquidity.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Bear Case Says Price Is Headed Below $100,000, But Bulls Still Have A Chance, Here’s How If the structural message is supportive, the tape still demands humility. Coutts called out a weekly-timeframe bearish divergence in bitcoin’s momentum as a genuine risk signal. “Divergences are warning signals… The trend is losing momentum,” he said, recalling similar set-ups ahead of the 2008 crisis and the 2020 pandemic shock. Such signals are probabilistic, not fate, but he urged investors to consider “countervailing circumstances” and risk-management overlays rather than dismissing them. Why This Bitcoin Cycle is DIFFERENT! (Explained by @Jamie1Coutts) Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:05 Global Liquidity and M2 Money Supply 07:19 Fed’s Balance Sheet 14:45 Liquidity Cycles or Halving Cycles 19:04 Chinese Equities and Bitcoin 23:25 The Bearish Divergences 35:08… pic.twitter.com/VIuA5BFTyu — Crypto Kid (@CryptoKidcom) September 6, 2025 Bitcoin Momentum Fades (For Now) Related to momentum, he flagged a cooling in the marginal demand engine that powered much of 2024: corporate-treasury accumulation of bitcoin, led by MicroStrategy and followed by a long tail of imitators. “The marginal buyer of bitcoin has been treasury companies and ETFs,” he said, but the “intensity of buying” by treasury vehicles “peaked in Q4 of 2024.” As premiums compress and capital-markets windows narrow, “they can’t buy at the same intensity anymore,” which acts as a drag at the margin. The host noted that MicroStrategy’s market-to-NAV premium had recently been around 1.5%, adding that Michael Saylor has suggested issuance is far more attractive above roughly 2.0; Coutts’ broader point was that a proliferation of copycats diluted the strategy and left many smaller names trading below intrinsic value—potential acquisition fodder for stronger operators if discounts persist. ETFs, he said, are a steadier bid but lack the leverage-like reflexivity of equity issuance. On “altseason,” Coutts was blunt that this time will not rhyme with 2021’s helicopter-money mania. He argued that crypto has now found product-market fit, with higher-quality networks boasting users, cash flows and token-burn mechanics that make sense to traditional allocators, while indiscriminate speculation fades. “The new buyers are much more discerning. They’re not going to buy the 15th or 16th L1, the 10th L2,” he said, predicting concentration in a handful of credible platforms and real-world use cases. He hopes the industry will “never say the word ‘altseason’ again,” preferring to describe what’s coming as a broader “asset-class bull market” with far greater dispersion. The prior “banana zone,” he added, was a creature of lockdowns and stimulus checks; the “velocity of stimulus is different” now, so expectations should be, too. At press time, BTC traded at $112,946. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin long-term holders aged between 5 to 7 years old have lost $6.4 billion in Realized Cap over the past year, but selling isn’t behind the fall. 5 To 7 Years Old Bitcoin Holders Have Been Maturing To Even Older Bands In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about how the Realized Cap associated with the 5 to 7 years old Bitcoin investors has changed over the past year. Related Reading: Cardano Pushes Past $0.85: Falling Wedge Breakout Confirmed? The “Realized Cap” here refers to an indicator that basically measures the amount of capital that the investors of the cryptocurrency have put into it. As such, changes in the metric correspond to the exit or entry of capital into the network. In the context of the current topic, the Realized Cap of the whole market isn’t of interest, but rather that of a few specific investor segments. These are the holders with 5 to 7 years old, 7 to 10 years old and 10+ years old tokens. Statistically, the longer an investor holds onto their coins, the less likely they become to sell them in the future, so these groups with their extremely long holding times would correspond to some of the most resolute hands in the sector. What the behavior of these investors is like, therefore, can be something to watch for. Below is a chart showing the trend in the Realized Cap for these Bitcoin groups. As displayed in the above graph, the Realized Cap associated with the youngest of these groups, the addresses holding coins aged between 5 and 7 years old, has seen a steep drop over the past year. The metric started out the window at a level of $14.9 billion, but today, it stands at just $8.5 billion, reflecting a decline of almost 43%. Investor groups classified based on age lose Realized Cap when they break their dormancy and participate in transactions. For example, as soon as a holder part of the 5 to 7 years old segment shifts their coins, the age of said tokens resets back to zero, and they along with their Realized Cap share get kicked out of the group. There’s one more way for the metric to decline for a cohort, however: upward promotion. This happens when an investor HODLs past the upper bound of the group’s age range. From the chart, it’s visible that the combined Realized Cap associated with the 5 to 7 years, 7 to 10 years, and 10+ years segments has actually gone up over the past year, despite the first of them noting a steep drop in its metric. Since capital can’t directly transfer to the latter two groups, it must have gone through the former. Related Reading: Old Bitcoin Supply Keeps Moving Into ETFs: Data Shows Three Waves So far In other words, almost all of the “selling” that the 5 to 7 years group has participated in has actually corresponded to diamond hands holding steady enough to pass on to a higher cohort. As Glassnode has pointed out, though, this doesn’t mean that the cohort hasn’t participated in any real selling at all. “The 5–7y group still spent ~385k $BTC in profit over the year, showing that while most coins matured passively, some holders selectively distributed,” notes the analytics firm. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $112,400, up 3% over the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price is currently at a critical juncture, sitting right on top of the Bull Market Support Band. Throughout past bull cycles, this band has historically served as a crucial support level, with price retesting it during corrections and bouncing off it to continue its upward trend. Why This Level Matters For Bitcoin Uptrend In an X post, full-time crypto trader and investor, Daan Crypto Trades, has pointed out that Bitcoin is currently sitting directly on top of the Bull Market Support Band. This level has long been regarded as one of the most reliable high-timeframe momentum indicators. Related Reading: Bitcoin Holds Key Support Amid Gravestone Doji – $120,000 Hangs In Balance Daan Crypto Trades noted that while Bitcoin has seen short-term consolidation at or even slightly below this band, it has never experienced a prolonged detachment for more than a week or two during a bull market. The broader market structure remains intact as long as Bitcoin continues to print higher highs and higher lows on the larger timeframe. However, any subsequent dips that occur while this structural integrity is maintained are generally seen as areas of interest and potential buying opportunities for investors. The Role Of Liquidity In Driving Bitcoin’s Next Move Bitcoin is showing the first bearish divergence against the Global M2 Money supply since the cycle lows began, and signaling a potential slowdown in momentum. According to Saint Pump, a market expert, a one-month liquidity pullback is expected in late September, coinciding with the Federal Reserve (Fed) anticipated rate cut amid job weakness. Related Reading: Analyst Says All Bitcoin Price Uptrend Are Duds Unless This Happens This confluence of a bearish technical signal and a macroeconomic liquidity event suggests that BTC’s recent poor price action since July and divergence with global liquidity will continue leading to a period of choppy price action. In addition, there will be volatile trading until global liquidity conditions improve in late October. Adding to the short-term pressure, October also marks the expected end of the four-year cycle, which historically brings additional selling activity. Despite these headwinds, no major cycle top or euphoria signals are evident. Saint Pump noted that the Trump Administration may unleash a monetary bazooka through a Fed takeover to stimulate the economy ahead of the midterms. As a result, this cycle could extend into late 2026, until Inflation fears resurface once the Fed overdoes it due to political pressures. From a technical perspective, the best bid scenario in a sell-off lies between $93,000 and $98,000, aligning with a retest of the weekly 55 Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which has sustained the bull trend since last year. While short-term volatility is expected, the broader uptrend remains structurally sound. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s price has spent the past week hovering within a tight band and bouncing between $108,000 and $112,000 without any clear direction yet. There have been multiple rejections at the $112,000 price level and technical analysis shows pressure around the 200-day moving averages on the four-hour chart.  Notably, a technical analysis shared by crypto analyst Daan Crypto shows Bitcoin is at risk of a breakdown below $100,000, but bulls still have a chance to stage a recovery rally in the weeks ahead. Analyst Warns About Sweep Of Monthly Lows In his latest post on the social media platform X, Daan Crypto Trades noted that Bitcoin is currently indecisive, and its price action is leaning toward a sweep of the monthly lows. This movement is based on the 4-hour candlestick timeframe chart, which shows the Bitcoin price was recently rejected at the 200MA/EMA last week.  Related Reading: Looking For A Good Bitcoin Entry? Crypto Research Firm Reveals The Best Time To Buy BTC The 4-hour candlestick chart below shows Bitcoin has been trading in a defined range since August 25, with equal lows forming a weak base around $107,000 and liquidity sitting just beneath. This makes a stop-hunt sweep a possible next step. Such a move, the analyst explained, would likely open up a bearish case of panic across the market, which might eventually cause fears of Bitcoin collapsing under the $100,000 price level.  However, the analyst also identified the $103,000 to $105,000 price zone as the support level where buyers can step in. This area, according to him, would also be a logical entry point for swing long positions if the Bitcoin price indeed breaks down below $107,000. Conditions For A Bullish Recovery According to the analysis, Bitcoin bulls have a chance to prevent any breakdown below $100,000 by holding above $105,000 to $103,000. Despite laying out a bearish base case, Daan also described a roadmap for the bulls.  Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Warns 90% Bitcoin Price Crash Is Coming, Here’s When The first condition would be strength above $115,000, which would mark a break of August’s range low, which has turned into resistance in the first week of August. A break and close above $115,000 would invalidate any short-term bearish momentum.  Alternatively, he pointed to a quick liquidity grab below the monthly lows at $107,000, followed by a reclaim of the $107,000 and $112,000 levels, as the most bullish scenario. According to the analyst, this second setup could pave the way for a sustained one-to-two-month uptrend rally through October and November.  For now, the analyst said he is on the sidelines except for short-term scalps. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $111,733, up 0.7% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Crypto markets head into what could be a regime-setting macro week as “this week could reshape everything for the Fed and markets,” warned the @_Investinq account in a weekend thread that laid out a dense sequence of US macro catalysts landing between Tuesday and Friday. While the posts weren’t about crypto per se, the chain of events they describe—labor‐market revisions, wholesale and consumer inflation, jobless claims, energy inventories, and consumer expectations—map almost one-for-one onto the key drivers of the US dollar and Treasury yields. Those, in turn, are the two macro levers that most reliably move digital assets, with bitcoin historically trading inversely to both the dollar and real yields. Crypto Volatility Alert: Fed’s Make-Or-Break Data Week Is Here The week opens with an unusually consequential Tuesday: at 10:00 a.m. ET on September 9, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its preliminary benchmark revision to March 2025 payrolls alongside the QCEW. This is the annual “fact check” of the establishment survey that anchors jobs data to unemployment-insurance tax records covering more than 95% of payroll jobs. BLS has already flagged the timing; outside research shops have spent weeks priming markets for a significant down-adjustment. Goldman Sachs estimates a reduction on the order of 550,000 to 950,000 jobs for the twelve months through March 2025—potentially the largest 12-month markdown since 2010—an expectation echoed across several market digests and news outlets. Related Reading: Crypto Bull Run: Probability Of Fed Rate Cuts In September Almost At 100% The context matters: last year’s preliminary benchmark for March 2024 carved 818,000 jobs off previously reported totals, the biggest hit since the Great Financial Crisis, and it drove a reassessment of labor momentum into the fall. @_Investinq framed it this way: “Think of it as a yearly ‘fact check’ on job growth.” For crypto, a sizable downward revision would validate the “growth-is-slowing” narrative now feeding rate-cut bets into the September FOMC, a backdrop that has historically coincided with softer USD and more supportive cross-asset liquidity. Wednesday morning brings the wholesale inflation check. July’s Producer Price Index re-accelerated to +0.9% m/m and +3.3% y/y, with “final demand” goods up 0.7% and services up 1.1%; the BLS singled out a near 39% jump in fresh and dry vegetable prices and noted that financial services, lodging, and airfares contributed to the services surge. Under the hoods, “core PPI” ex-food and energy rose 0.9% m/m and 3.7% y/y, while the broader trimmed core (excluding food, energy and trade services) advanced 0.6% m/m and 2.8% y/y. @_Investinq cautioned: “Both goods and services are running hot, making it harder for the Fed to dismiss inflation.” Another firm print for August PPI would stiffen the dollar, push up yields, and typically pressure rate-sensitive risk assets—including high-beta crypto. Conversely, a cool-down would ease those headwinds. The August PPI is due Wednesday, Sept. 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Energy is the second macro input mid-week. The EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report hits Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. ET. Draws in crude stocks tend to push oil higher at the margin; higher energy costs feed directly into headline inflation and indirectly into core via transport and production costs. That’s not a crypto-specific datapoint, but it shapes inflation expectations and, by extension, real-yield dynamics that crypto trades against. All Eyes On The CPI The main event is Thursday’s Consumer Price Index, the last inflation read before the Fed’s September 16–17 meeting. In July, headline CPI rose +0.2% m/m and +2.7% y/y, while core CPI ticked up to 3.1% y/y from 2.9%, with sticky categories including shelter, healthcare, recreation, and auto insurance offsetting cheaper energy. “This CPI is the final inflation report before the September Fed meeting,” @_Investinq reminded followers. The August CPI lands Thursday, Sept. 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET. A softer-than-expected print would strengthen the case for a larger policy move, while a surprise re-acceleration—particularly in services—could cap a dovish reaction even if the Fed still cuts. For digital assets, the sign of the surprise matters: cool CPI tends to mean a weaker dollar and flatter real yields, both historically constructive for Bitcoin and the entire crypto market; hot CPI often does the opposite and usually hits altcoins hardest. Also Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET, weekly jobless claims arrive—a high-frequency pulse on labor slack. “Low claims = strong labor = hawkish Fed. Rising claims = cracks in labor = dovish tilt,” as the @_Investinq thread put it. Markets increasingly treat this series as a tie-breaker when inflation is ambiguous. Officially, the Labor Department’s unemployment-insurance release hits every Thursday morning at 8:30. Friday closes with the University of Michigan preliminary September sentiment and inflation expectations at 10:00 a.m. ET. August sentiment fell to 58.2 (final) from 61.7, while 1-year inflation expectations rose to 4.8%, up from 4.5% in July—what the @_Investinq thread labeled a “toxic combo” of weaker mood and firmer expectations. Related Reading: Spot Crypto Trading Gets Major Green Light From US Regulators The Fed watches expectations closely because they tend to shape wage/price behavior; for crypto, higher expected inflation can be a double-edged sword: if it lifts yields and the dollar it’s a near-term drag, but in more extreme risk-off episodes it has also coincided with flows into “anti-debasement” narratives around BTC and gold. FOMC Looms Over Crypto All of this lands in a Fed blackout window ahead of the September decision. The FOMC calendar confirms a September 16–17 meeting, and after Friday’s soft jobs report (nonfarm payrolls +22,000, unemployment 4.3%), several banks moved to price in a cut, with some houses openly debating 25 vs 50 basis points depending on the CPI/PPI path this week. That debate is exactly why “a small decimal swing here could shift trillions,” as @_Investinq put it. From a crypto-specific lens, the distinction matters: a standard 25 bps cut with benign inflation likely weakens the dollar modestly and supports Bitcoin and crypto on the margin; a surprise-large 50 bps cut on the heels of large jobs revisions would underscore growth risk and could flatten the entire curve. The immediate setup therefore looks binary for crypto assets. If Tuesday’s benchmark revision is large and Thursday’s CPI cools, the “USD down / yields down” impulse that crypto likes could reassert into the FOMC, potentially reinforcing a swing back to net inflows into crypto asset funds after episodic outflows in late August. If, however, PPI and CPI print hot, expect the dollar bid to harden, real yields to back up, and the pressure to fall disproportionately on high-beta altcoins while bitcoin’s relative strength—and spot ETF demand—acts as a cushion. As @_Investinq summarized, “This week isn’t just data, it’s the Fed’s last look before September… and markets will trade every decimal.” For crypto, that translation is straightforward: every tenth of a percentage point in PPI/CPI and every hundred thousand jobs in the benchmark revision will be read through the dollar–yields prism and priced first into BTC liquidity, then into altcoin beta. The calendar is set; the pivots will be macro. At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $3.82 trillion. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com