Access and market structure issues limit adoption of Strategy’s first non U.S. perpetual preferred, Stream.
The Bitcoin price had a relatively rough trading period over the past week, as it hovered around the psychological $90,000 mark. The flagship cryptocurrency, which looked set for a return to six-figure valuation barely over a week ago, now seems to have lost all its bullish momentum. Broadly speaking, these recent struggles put to rest questions around the “relief rallies” to the upside, and correlate more with the current bear market structure. However, the latest on-chain evaluation shows that the Bitcoin price woes could worsen from here on out. Expert Explains Why $60,000 Is Possible For BTC Price In a recent post on the X platform, Alphractal CEO and founder Joao Wedson said that the Bitcoin price could still have room to fall below the $60,000 level. This not-so-optimistic prediction is based on the number of days Bitcoin has traded at prices higher than today. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Profit Stalls At 71%: Still Not Enough For A Sustainable Recovery According to Wedson, there have been 355 days when the Bitcoin price has traded at levels higher than today. This figure was derived from the “Days Spent at a Profit” metric, which tracks the number of days in Bitcoin’s history where the market price was higher than the current price. This indicator measures how much price action — in the past — has occurred above the current price level. From a historical standpoint, an increase in the number of “Days Spent at a Profit” tends to occur during bear cycles or extended periods of sideways movement, implying that different investor groups are holding BTC at a price higher than their cost bases. As Wedson highlighted, the “Days Spent at a Profit” metric reached around 775 days as the Bitcoin price approached a bottom. Going by this historical context, the current level of this indicator (355 days) suggests that the flagship cryptocurrency is still a distance away from extreme levels often associated with bearish market bottoms. Ultimately, this deduction means that the price of Bitcoin could still be at risk of an extended decline over the next 300 days. According to the Alphractal, this extended period of price decline could see BTC revisit $60,000, potentially triggering significant liquidations among retail investors and institutional players who entered the market post-ETF. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $89,900, reflecting no significant change in the past 24 hours. However, the market leader is currently down by over 5% on the weekly timeframe, while nearly 30% adrift its all-time high of $126,080. Related Reading: Can Bitcoin Revisit $97,600? Glassnode Says Watch This Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin is trading below the $90,000 level once again, as the market continues to drift through a phase defined by indecision, rising caution, and growing fear. After repeated failures to reclaim this psychological threshold, price action has started to reflect a lack of conviction on both sides, with buyers hesitating to step in aggressively and sellers pressing every rebound attempt. While the broader trend has not fully collapsed, the inability to hold key levels is increasing uncertainty around Bitcoin’s next major move. Related Reading: XRP Distribution Phase Continues, But Funding Rates Suggest Shorts Are Overextended Top analyst Darkfost argues that on-chain signals are starting to mirror conditions typically seen near the end of prolonged drawdowns. According to his analysis, Bitcoin’s unrealized profits and losses are sliding back toward levels that have historically appeared only at the exit of bear markets, when the market has already absorbed a deep reset in sentiment. This shift suggests that stress is building under the surface, even if price has not yet entered a full capitulation phase. Since Bitcoin’s last all-time high, Darkfost notes that many late-arriving investors have moved into uncomfortable territory, facing mounting downside pressure as the market cools. As a result, unrealized profits are shrinking, unrealized losses are expanding, and the overall balance continues to deteriorate—an environment that often forces traders into a decisive choice between holding through volatility or exiting under stress. Decision Point For Bitcoin Investors Darkfost highlighted a chart based on an adjusted version of NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss), designed to capture investor stress more accurately during shifting market regimes. Instead of relying solely on the standard market cap, the model incorporates the realized capitalization of both Short-Term Holders (STHs) and Long-Term Holders (LTHs), then compares that blended realized foundation against Bitcoin’s traditional market cap. The result is a clearer view of how much profit or loss sits “on paper” across the market, filtered through a more structural lens. To reduce noise and better define trend shifts, the metric is smoothed using an average, producing what Darkfost refers to as aNUPL. The key takeaway is that Bitcoin is approaching levels that have historically forced investors into a binary decision. When unrealized profits compress and unrealized losses expand to these ranges, holders typically face two outcomes: hold and continue accumulating, or capitulate and lock in losses. That difference in behavior becomes critical because it shapes liquidity, sentiment, and the next directional trend. If long-term participants absorb the pressure and keep holding, the market can stabilize and rotate back into recovery. But if selling accelerates from stressed cohorts, the decline can deepen into a broader bear phase. This is why tracking realized and unrealized profit dynamics remains essential, especially during periods of uncertainty. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Profit Stalls At 71%: Still Not Enough For A Sustainable Recovery Bitcoin Consolidates After Sharp Weekly Breakdown Bitcoin is trading around $89,000 on the weekly chart after a steep selloff that pushed the price out of its prior distribution zone. The latest candle reflects heavy downside pressure, with BTC dropping roughly 4.8% on the week and struggling to stabilize near a key pivot that has repeatedly acted as support and resistance throughout the cycle. After failing to hold above the psychological $90,000 threshold, the market is now trapped in a tight consolidation range, suggesting traders are waiting for confirmation before committing to a larger move. Related Reading: Ethereum Supply Tightens On Binance As Reserves Hit Lowest Level Since 2016 From a trend standpoint, Bitcoin remains vulnerable as it trades below the blue moving average, which is now acting as overhead resistance near the low-$100K region. The rejection from that dynamic level aligns with the broader structure: BTC topped near the mid-$120K range, then entered a sharp corrective leg that reset momentum into early 2026. While the green moving average continues to slope upward and is approaching the current price zone, the market has not yet shown the strength needed to reclaim its former trend trajectory. Importantly, the weekly structure is now compressing. If buyers can defend the $88K–$90K region and push BTC back above $92K–$95K, it would signal a recovery attempt toward the moving average band. However, a sustained failure here increases the risk of a deeper retracement toward the low-$80K zone, where prior demand previously emerged. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin continues to struggle as it attempts to reclaim the $90,000 level, with traders facing a market defined by hesitation rather than conviction. After yesterday’s bearish breakdown below $90K, price action has slipped back into indecisive territory, raising fresh questions about whether this pullback is a temporary shakeout or the start of a deeper corrective phase. Related Reading: XRP Distribution Phase Continues, But Funding Rates Suggest Shorts Are Overextended According to top analyst Axel Adler, a macro indicator called Trend Pulse helps explain why momentum has faded. Adler notes that since January 19, the market has remained in Bear Mode, with the Bull phase absent for 83 consecutive days. Two separate charts reinforce this shift, showing that both short-term momentum and quarterly performance have turned negative at the same time. Trend Pulse recently shifted from Neutral to Bear, driven by a double-negative setup: the 14-day return has flipped red, and the SMA30 versus SMA200 trend signal is also negative. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s quarterly return sits at -19%, confirming macro weakness, but without the kind of extreme that often signals a definitive bottom. Bitcoin Remains Stuck In Bear Mode As Macro Signals Stay Negative Adler notes that Bitcoin’s last Bull Mode signal was printed on November 2, 2025, when BTC traded near $110,000—roughly 83 days ago. Since then, the market has failed to regain structural strength. Even the Neutral stretch between December 30 and January 18 proved too short and too weak to restore the long-term trend, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable once selling pressure returned. Adler explains that the first trigger for improvement is the 14-day return moving back above 0, which would shift the regime from Bear to Neutral. However, a full transition back into Bull Mode requires a second condition: SMA30 breaking above SMA200. Given the current divergence between the two averages, that crossover would likely demand 3–4 weeks of sustained upside rather than a short-lived bounce. The Bitcoin Price Performance chart adds macro context by tracking quarterly return (90D) as a sentiment proxy. Historically, readings above +75% align with euphoria, while values below 0% signal pessimism, and drops below -30% reflect capitulation. Bitcoin’s quarterly return sits near -19%, negative but far from deep bear-market extremes. Yet the 7-day change (-6.8%) suggests downside momentum is accelerating after the $90K breakdown. Together, Trend Pulse and quarterly returns point to moderate pessimism without final capitulation, leaving the market at a decision point. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Profit Stalls At 71%: Still Not Enough For A Sustainable Recovery BTC Moving Averages Cap Recovery Bitcoin is trading near $89,000 after failing to hold above the $90,000 psychological level, reinforcing the market’s current indecision. The chart shows BTC printing a lower-high structure since the early November peak, followed by a sharp selloff that reset price into a wide consolidation range. After bottoming in late November, Bitcoin rebounded but struggled to build sustained momentum, repeatedly stalling on push attempts toward the mid-$90K zone. From a trend perspective, BTC remains pressured beneath its key moving averages. Price is trading below the green long-term average and the blue mid-term average, both of which are now sloping downward, signaling that broader momentum continues to lean bearish. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Power Shift: New Whales Now Control The Market The most recent rejection occurred as BTC briefly pushed into the $95K–$97K area, only to roll over and break back down toward the range lows. Meanwhile, the red long-term average remains well above price near the low-$100Ks, highlighting how far BTC would need to recover to reestablish a stronger macro uptrend. Volume has picked up on selloffs relative to bounces, suggesting that downside moves are still being met with more urgency. For bulls, reclaiming $90K and then holding above $92K–$94K is key. Otherwise, the chart keeps risk open for a deeper pullback toward the mid-$80K region. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s push to $97,600 last week drew a burst of bullish options activity, but Glassnode argues the derivatives tape looked more like short-dated positioning than broad-based conviction. In a Jan. 23 thread, the on-chain analytics firm pointed to a split between front-end call demand and longer-dated risk pricing that stayed anchored in downside protection. “Let’s deep dive into options market behavior during last week’s move to 97.6K, and how options metrics help gauge conviction behind the move,” Glassnode wrote. The core takeaway: upside flow showed up, but it didn’t meaningfully change how the market priced risk further out the curve. What Bitcoin Traders Can Learn From Last Week’s Rally Glassnode first focused on near-term skew. Around mid-January, BTC rose roughly 8% over a few days, and the 1-week 25-delta skew moved sharply toward neutral from “deep put territory.” That kind of front-end shift can look like a market flipping bullish—until you check whether the same repricing is happening in longer expiries. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Selling Off On Quantum Fears? A Reality Check “Careful though,” Glassnode warned. “Near-dated call demand is often misread as directional conviction.” The thread paired that point with flow data: the options volume put/call ratio dropped from 1 to 0.4, signaling a surge in call activity. But, as Glassnode framed it, the question is not whether calls were bought, but how short-dated that demand actually was. The longer-dated picture was notably less enthusiastic. Glassnode said the 1-month 25-delta skew “only moved from 7% to 4% at the low,” staying in put asymmetry even as the 1-week skew fell from 8% to 1%. On the 3-month 25-delta skew, the shift was even smaller (less than 1.5%) and it “stayed firmly in put territory,” continuing to price asymmetric downside. For Glassnode, that divergence matters because it separates “flow” from “risk pricing.” Upside participation can be real, but if the market does not reprice skew across maturities, it suggests traders are not extending that optimism into a higher-conviction, longer-horizon view. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Power Shift: New Whales Now Control The Market The volatility tape reinforced the same message. “Layering in ATM implied volatility, we see vol being sold as price moved higher,” Glassnode wrote. “Gamma sellers monetized the rally. This is not the volatility behavior typically associated with sustained breakouts.” That combination: front-end call demand alongside vol supply can align with tactical positioning rather than a regime change. It can also leave spot moves more vulnerable if follow-through buying does not materialize once short-dated structures roll off. Glassnode closed with a checklist for what a cleaner breakout would look like: “An ideal breakout setup combines spot pressing key levels, skew pointing higher with conviction across maturities, and volatility being bid. Last week’s move didn’t meet those conditions.” For traders watching whether BTC can revisit $97,600, the thread’s implication is straightforward: monitor whether longer-dated skew begins to lift out of put territory and whether implied volatility starts to get bid, not sold, as spot tests key levels again. At press time, BTC traded at $89,297. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Having earlier breached $100 per ounce for the first time ever, silver has risen to $101, while gold sits just shy of $5,000 per ounce.
Spot bitcoin ETFs booked over $1.6 billion in outflows in four days, underscoring the rapid reversal in investor demand after last week's strong inflows.
UBS will gradually introduce crypto services, starting with select private clients in Switzerland, according to Bloomberg.
Crypto researcher Axel has provided insights into why the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana prices are still crashing. This comes as BTC continues to see a supply overhang, which threatens to put more downward pressure on crypto prices. Why The Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana Prices Are Still Crashing In a research report, Axel noted that anomalous exchange inflows accompanied the BTC breakdown below the $90,000 zone as sellers prepared in advance. The market is also still at risk of further selling pressure as the 1.0 level of the short-term holders’ SOPR is now acting as a resistance rather than support. As such, there is a possibility that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana prices will decline further. Related Reading: Altcoin Season In Q1? Bitcoin, Ethereum Breakdown Maps Out Performance Further commenting on Bitcoin netflows into exchanges, Axel noted that between January 20 and 21, almost 17,000 BTC flowed into exchanges, coinciding with BTC dropping to as low as $87,000, while Ethereum and Solana prices also dropped. The crypto researcher explained that these anomalously high values followed a period of predominantly negative netflow in the first half of this month. In the context of the falling Bitcoin price, Axel stated that such a spike is more likely to reflect supply preparation than neutral transfers. In other words, the breakdown below $90,000 appears to be structural rather than emotional. Meanwhile, Bitcoin netflow returned to neutral levels yesterday, but the accumulated inflow still creates a supply overhang, which could lead to further declines in the prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. Axel noted that a signal of improvement would be if netflow turns negative again amid rising prices, which could indicate that the overhang has cleared. However, with the short-term holders’ 7-day SMA SOPR below 0.996, the crypto researcher suggested that BTC faces increased selling pressure on every recovery as these holders look to sell at breakeven. He added that a reversal trigger could be confirmed if the SOPR breaks above 1.0 from below, with the 7-day SMA holding unity for three to five days to filter out false spikes after the selloff. Why A Break Above $100,000 Looks Unlikely For Now In its latest research report, on-chain analytics platform Glassnode explained that a Bitcoin rally above $100,000 looks unlikely for now as the supply overhang persists. They noted how this overhang supply above $98,000 remains the dominant sell-side force capping short to mid-term rebounds. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Following The 2022 Fractal? Here Was The Previous Outcome Alluding to the Unspent Realized Price Distribution metric, Glassnode noted that the recent BTC rally has partially filled the prior air gap between $93,000 and $98,000, driven by redistribution from top buyers into newer market participants. However, the unresolved supply overhang is expected to likely cap attempts above the $98,400 short-term holders’ cost basis and the $100,000 level. A meaningful and sustained acceleration in demand momentum is said to be required for a clean breakout above $100,000 to occur. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com
This week's redemptions reached the highest level since November, a signal that often marks a local bottom in the price of bitcoin.
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has pointed out in a new report how Bitcoin is facing supply overhang beyond the $98,000 region. Bitcoin Could Find Resistance Beyond $98,000 In its latest weekly report, Glassnode has discussed about how the recent Bitcoin rally stalled near the Realized Price of the short-term holders (STHs). The “Realized Price” is an on-chain metric that tracks the cost basis of the average investor or address on the BTC network. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Whiplash: Mood Sours From Greed To Extreme Fear In Days The STH Realized specifically measures the average acquisition level of traders who purchased within the past 155 days. As the below chart shows, this indicator is located at $98,400 right now. This level is around where the recent recovery run hit an obstacle, potentially due to selling from underwater recent buyers who used the rally to exit near their break-even mark. Glassnode explained: The recent rejection near the Short-Term Holder cost basis at ~$98.4k mirrors the market structure observed in Q1 2022, where repeated failures to reclaim recent buyers’ cost basis prolonged consolidation. The STH Realized Price provides a look at the average break-even level of a broad section of the market. For a more granular look, another indicator called the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) exists. From the chart of the Bitcoin URPD, it’s visible that a notable amount of the STH supply has a cost basis between the current level and $98,000 (colored in blue). This supply represents the tokens that were redistributed by top buyers into newer market participants during the price rally. Not all top buyers sold, however, as it’s apparent in the graph that at levels around and above $100,000, the long-term holder (LTH) supply is becoming a notable force (shaded in red). Coins count under the LTH cohort once they mature past the 155-day age bracket. The fact that LTH supply is building up at these levels suggests some bull market entrants are willing to hold. The analytics firm noted: This unresolved supply overhang remains a persistent source of sell pressure, likely to cap attempts above the $98.4k STH cost basis and the $100k level. A clean breakout would therefore require a meaningful and sustained acceleration in demand momentum. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bottoming Phase Was Driven By Large Entities, Glassnode Data Shows It now remains to be seen how Bitcoin’s upcoming price action would look, particularly in the context that major supply clusters are still sitting underwater. BTC Price Bitcoin has been following a downward trajectory since its rejection from the STH Realized Price as its value is now trading around $89,100. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
The metric highlights weak risk-adjusted performance during periods of volatility, a feature of drawdowns that can persist for months.
The Bank of Japan held rates steady while revising inflation and growth projections higher.
Internal audit showed the coins were likely lost via a phishing attack during official storage, according to local media reports.
Bitcoin is facing a critical test as volatility returns and price action remains unstable around the $90,000 level. Bulls are attempting to defend this psychological zone after recent turbulence, but confidence across the market is still fragile. With uncertainty dominating short-term sentiment, many traders are treating every bounce as a potential trap rather than the start of a confirmed recovery. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Power Shift: New Whales Now Control The Market According to top analyst Darkfost, the market is still missing a key ingredient for a sustainable bullish continuation: a broad base of investors sitting in profit. He argues that despite Bitcoin’s resilience, there are not yet enough participants in positive territory to build the kind of structural comfort that fuels long-lasting uptrends. This matters because latent profits are not inherently bearish. In healthy conditions, when most holders are in profit, the market tends to stabilize. Investors feel less pressure to sell, panic fades, and holding becomes easier. That environment often supports stronger trend development and reduces the risk of sharp downside reactions. Still, Darkfost warns that profit dynamics only help up to a point. When unrealized gains become extreme across the entire market, they can eventually turn into overhead supply, triggering corrective phases. Bitcoin’s Profit Structure Still Isn’t Bullish Enough Profit distribution across holders can become a double-edged sword for Bitcoin. When the supply in profit climbs above 95% and approaches 100%, unrealized gains stop being supportive and begin turning into overhead pressure. At those extremes, investors have little incentive to hold through volatility, and even small shocks can trigger profit-taking that fuels corrective phases. From a structural perspective, Darkfost argues the market needs to reclaim the 75% supply-in-profit threshold to rebuild a healthier foundation. Historically, Bitcoin has tended to sustain bullish conditions when this metric holds above that level, as most participants remain comfortable and less reactive to downside volatility. Right now, however, the market sits near 71%, after dropping as low as 64%. Darkfost notes that readings this low have often appeared near the early stages of bear markets, even when the headline drawdown looks relatively contained. In this case, the decline of roughly 31% was enough to push a large portion of recent buyers underwater, suggesting many entered late in the move. The recent rebound briefly lifted supply in profit back to 75%, but it failed to hold. That rejection likely reflects investors using the bounce to exit at breakeven or reduce losses. Going forward, reclaiming 75%–80% would signal stabilization, while further weakness could amplify panic-driven selling. Related Reading: Ethereum Supply Tightens On Binance As Reserves Hit Lowest Level Since 2016 Volatility Keeps Bulls on the Defensive Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize near the $90,000 mark after a volatile correction that reshaped the market structure over the past few months. The chart shows BTC printing a major peak around $125,000 before rolling over into a sharp selloff. Accelerating into November and eventually finding a local floor near the mid-$80,000s. That drop marked a decisive break in momentum and triggered a shift toward a lower range, where price has struggled to regain prior support levels. Since the rebound off the lows, Bitcoin has moved into a consolidation phase, repeatedly testing resistance around $92,000–$95,000 but failing to generate sustained continuation. Each recovery attempt has been met with selling pressure, suggesting that short-term supply is still active near former breakdown zones. The latest bounce back toward $90,000 signals buyers are defending the level. But the structure still looks fragile without a clean breakout. Related Reading: Binance Order Flow Suggests Ethereum Is In Correction Mode: Demand Still Missing Volume also reflects uncertainty, with higher activity during selloffs and more muted participation during rebounds. Bulls likely need to hold $88,000–$90,000 and reclaim the $92,000 region with conviction. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Technical analysis shared by crypto analyst CryptoBullet on X highlighted a familiar price action that suggests that Bitcoin’s current structure may be closely tracking a 2022 price fractal. Bitcoin’s price action in recent days has changed into a more fragile posture, with the cryptocurrency falling back below the psychological $90,000 level after failing to sustain higher ground above $97,000 on January 14. How Bitcoin’s Current Structure Resembles The 2022 Fractal According to CryptoBullet, Bitcoin’s present price action is closely following an interesting structure that it previously played out in 2022. Technical analysis on the daily candlestick timeframe chart posted by the analyst shows the earlier 2022 move as a transparent projection layered behind current price action, with a striking similarity in both rhythm and volatility. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Will Still Rally Above $99,000 Despite Bearish Sentiment, Here’s Why As it stands, Bitcoin has experienced a significant 28.7% pullback from its October 2025 peak and is now trading in a choppy consolidation, a behavior that closely matches the early stages of the 2022 downturn. CryptoBullet noted, however, that there is an important distinction. During the 2022 decline, Bitcoin had already tested the 50-week moving average and the 200-day moving average at this stage of the cycle. In the current setup, Bitcoin’s price action is trading below those levels but has not yet made a direct test, and this means that the structure may still be incomplete. What The 2022 Outcome Predicts For Bitcoin’s Next Move The projection in the background of the chart shows Bitcoin making one more push higher over the coming month, briefly reclaiming levels above $100,000 before running into a strong resistance at the 50-week moving average. Related Reading: Party’s Over For Bitcoin Bulls: Analyst Reveals The Next Steps If this scenario plays out, the move would resemble the final relief rally seen in 2022, where the price rallied into long-term resistance before rolling over. CryptoBullet noted that timing also supports this idea, noting that considering the 2022 top is lined up with the October 2025 top, there appears to be roughly one month of price action left for a final leg up. The projection is that Bitcoin pushes to at least $100,000 again sometime in February 2026. However, support must hold above $83,000 in order for this bullish portion of the setup to be valid. Although the short-term projection is bullish, the broader implication of the 2022 fractal is bearish for the mid-term. According to the chart’s projected path, Bitcoin is shown rejecting at the 50-week moving average after a brief rally, followed by a sustained decline that eventually drags its price action below $71,500. This prediction is based on exactly what unfolded in 2022, when a final pump gave way to a deeper corrective phase. That said, fractals are guides, not guarantees, meaning price history may rhyme, but it does not always repeat itself exactly. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
"The [BTC] adoption announcements are not working anymore," said Jim Bianco, while Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas urged taking a longer-term view.
The asset manager said bitcoin’s institutional adoption and asset tokenization are pushing digital assets toward scale, potentially reaching tens of trillions by decade’s end.
Bitcoin’s April 2025 swing low around $73,000 has become the make-or-break line for 2026, according to veteran professional trader and commentator Nik Patel, who argues that a higher-timeframe break below that level would likely open the door to a prolonged grind in the mid-$50,000s. In Part Three of his “2026 Outlook” published Jan. 21, Patel laid out a high-conviction call that Bitcoin prints fresh all-time highs in the first half of 2026, framing it as further evidence the market has shifted away from the clean, narrative-driven four-year cycle. “Bitcoin trades new all-time highs in H1 — the 4-year cycle is dead,” he wrote, summarizing his regime view as “higher for longer,” potentially stretching into 2027. Why Bitcoin Must Hold $73,000 Or Risk A Slide Patel’s core technical claim is simple: as long as Bitcoin does not close key higher timeframes below the April 2025 low, the broader structure remains intact and the base case is continuation higher. He acknowledged that he expected a sharper reversal earlier: “Timing-wise, I was wrong on my expectations for a more immediate reversal,” but stressed that price has continued to hold above the April lows “despite having every reason to break and close below.” Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Power Shift: New Whales Now Control The Market That resilience, in his view, matters more than moving averages or anchored references. “Since 2022, we have not made fresh lows on a weekly timeframe below the bottoms that preceded the next highs (or, more plainly, weekly structure in the most technical sense has remained bullish with higher-highs and higher-lows),” Patel wrote. “This has not changed and I place less weight on MAs, VWAPs etc. than I do on price itself, and whilst the $73k April lows that preceded the $126k all-time highs are protected, weekly structure is still bullish.” His forecast leans heavily on a macro and positioning backdrop he describes as inconsistent with a deep-cycle crypto bear market. Patel cited “Goldilocks into reflation,” rising inflation breakevens, falling real rates, midterm dynamics, and bearish sentiment and positioning as part of the setup that makes a 2018- or 2022-style unwind less likely in his framework. Patel’s downside map is unusually explicit for a discretionary macro-technical thesis. “If I’m wrong — and we close the higher timeframes below $73k — we likely trade mid-$50ks this year, consolidate there for many months and produce no new highs in 2026,” he wrote, outlining a scenario where a structural failure forces a wholesale reassessment. He reiterated that the trigger is not an intraday wick but timeframe closes. In his year-ahead playbook, he described being “invalidated on a weekly close below $73k but with a view to re-entering on an immediate reclaim,” while “fully” cutting exposure if Bitcoin prints a monthly close below $73,000, in which case he would “prepare for mid-$50ks.” Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Selling Off On Quantum Fears? A Reality Check Patel also pushed back on the idea that the drawdown from the highs represents a new, uniquely bearish regime. “Where many view the most recent move off the highs into $80k as a ‘structural shift unlike prior corrections’, I disagree and continue to view this as a ‘higher for longer’ regime within which we have these 30-40% corrections, range-bound price-action chewing through supply and subsequently continue higher,” he wrote. He added that the correction “felt different” in part because it coincided with what he called “the largest liquidation event in crypto history,” alongside forced selling dynamics and long-term holder supply, yet it has still only produced a drawdown modestly larger than prior pullbacks in the broader uptrend. Even so, Patel allowed for near-term turbulence. He said there is “a decent chance we sweep the November low in early Q1,” but maintained he “categorically” does not expect a higher-timeframe close below the April lows in the first half of the year. His base case remains new highs in H1 2026—“perhaps in late Q1 but likely in early Q2.” At press time, BTC traded at $90,060. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is now down 55% against gold from its December 2024 peak.
"The consensus view is that crypto markets are bearish until about September," said one analyst.
Bitcoin’s role in the global financial system remains widely misunderstood, even at the highest levels of policy and finance. That disconnect surfaced during a major international forum, prompting a pointed clarification from a Coinbase executive. The moment centered on a fundamental question with growing relevance: what truly separates Bitcoin from central banks? Bitcoin’s Structural Design Sets It Apart – Coinbase Executive During the World Economic Forum in Davos, where global policymakers and financial leaders were debating the future of money and tokenization, Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, responded to remarks made by François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Banque de France, who argued that central banks deserve greater trust than Bitcoin because they operate under democratic mandates and institutional oversight. Related Reading: Pundit Clarifies XRP Roadmap To $10: How Price Will Play Out In 2026 Armstrong’s response focused on how Bitcoin is designed. Bitcoin operates as a decentralized protocol with no issuing authority, no governing committee, and no single entity capable of altering its monetary rules. Its supply is fixed, its issuance is algorithmic, and its operation depends on a distributed network of participants rather than institutional oversight. This design makes Bitcoin structurally independent in a way no central bank can replicate. By contrast, central banks sit at the top of national monetary systems. They control currency issuance, influence interest rates, and adjust monetary policy in response to political and economic pressures. Even when described as “independent,” they remain tightly connected to governments and fiscal policy. Armstrong highlighted that this link introduces discretion, policy shifts, and long-term currency debasement through money creation—a vulnerability Bitcoin was explicitly built to avoid. This distinction becomes especially relevant during periods of aggressive deficit spending. Because Bitcoin’s supply cannot be expanded, it functions as a constraint rather than a tool. In Armstrong’s view, this makes Bitcoin a direct counterweight to systems where new money can be introduced at will, gradually reducing purchasing power over time. That structural constraint is the foundation of Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge during periods of uncertainty. Trust, Accountability, And Individual Choice The exchange also exposed a deeper disagreement about how trust is formed. Villeroy de Galhau emphasized trust in central banks as institutions backed by legal authority and democratic systems. Armstrong countered by reframing trust as something derived from transparency and verifiability rather than institutional reputation. Related Reading: Is Dogecoin About To Repeat NVIDIA’s Run? Here’s What The Chart Says Armstrong further positioned Bitcoin as an accountability mechanism. Because its supply cannot be adjusted to accommodate government spending, it imposes discipline by design. In this sense, Bitcoin functions less as a policy tool and more as a constraint—similar to how gold historically limited monetary excess. This characteristic has driven its growing perception as a store of value during times of economic uncertainty. Importantly, Armstrong did not frame the relationship between Bitcoin and fiat currencies as a zero-sum battle. Instead, he described it as a healthy competition that leaves the ultimate decision with individuals. Users can choose between systems: one based on institutional control and policy flexibility, and another based on fixed rules and decentralization. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
After a brief slowdown in its pace of bitcoin acquisition, Strategy has purchased almost $3.5 billion of BTC over the last two weeks.
The bitcoin-owning company's capital structure is shifting toward permanent capital, reducing refinancing risk and damping credit volatility.
The capital raise will support balance sheet restructuring and the company's bitcoin strategy.
The Laser Digital Bitcoin Diversified Yield Fund SP targets excess returns on top of BTC performance.
Data shows the Bitcoin market sentiment has seen a sharp turnaround recently as the Fear & Greed Index has swung to extreme fear. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Is Back In Extreme Fear Zone The “Fear & Greed Index” refers to an indicator created by Alternative that tells us about the average sentiment present among traders in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency markets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bottoming Phase Was Driven By Large Entities, Glassnode Data Shows The index uses the data of the following five factors to determine the investor mentality: market cap dominance, trading volume, volatility, Google Trends, and social media sentiment. To represent the sentiment, it uses a numerical scale running from zero to hundred. When the value of the Fear & Greed Index is greater than 53, it means a sentiment of greed is shared by the majority of traders. On the other hand, the indicator being below 47 implies the dominance of fear. All values lying between these two cutoffs correspond to a net neutral mentality. Besides these three core regions, there are also two ‘extreme’ zones, known as the extreme fear (occurring at 25 and under) and extreme greed (above 75). At present, the market sentiment is in one of these zones, as the Fear & Greed Index’s latest value suggests. As displayed above, the Bitcoin market sentiment is just inside the extreme fear territory right now, with the Fear & Greed Index sitting at 24. This level of despair among traders is a new development, as just earlier mood was much better. On January 15th, the index had a value of 61, putting the sentiment of the average investor firmly inside the greed territory. Only six days later, the situation has completely flipped. The reason behind this shift lies in the bearish price action that the cryptocurrency has faced since US President Donald Trump announced tariffs on several European countries over Greenland. The earlier greed sentiment also came after trader mentality saw a sharp swing. In fact, the shift was even faster back then, as the Fear & Greed Index went from a near-extreme fear level of 26 to the greedy value of 61 over just two days as Bitcoin witnessed a price surge beyond $97,000. Related Reading: Chainlink Drops To $12.50, But Largest Whales Are Accumulating The latest drop back into the extreme zone may not entirely be a negative development for the cryptocurrency, though, if history is anything to refer to. Often, digital asset markets have tended to move in the direction that goes contrary to the expectations of the majority. Since extreme fear is where a bearish mentality is the strongest, bottoms can be likely to occur in the zone. Similarly, extreme greed can lead to tops instead. With the sentiment currently in the former zone, it now remains to be seen how long it will take for Bitcoin to find back its footing. BTC Price Bitcoin dropped under $88,000 earlier in the day, but the coin has since bounced back to $90,200. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Inflation in the United States could climb above 4% this year, according to a new analysis by Adam Posen of the Peterson Institute and Peter R. Orszag of Lazard.
Bitcoin has slipped below the $90,000 level as markets react to rising macroeconomic tension between the United States and the European Union, with fresh concerns tied to geopolitical friction around Greenland. The renewed risk-off tone pressured equities and crypto alike, reinforcing Bitcoin’s sensitivity to global headlines when uncertainty spikes and investors reduce exposure across high-beta assets. Related Reading: Binance Order Flow Suggests Ethereum Is In Correction Mode: Demand Still Missing Beyond price action, on-chain data suggests a deeper shift is taking place inside the Bitcoin market. A report by analyst MorenoDV highlights that, for the first time in history, “new whales” now account for a larger share of Bitcoin’s Realized Cap than long-term “OG” whales. Realized Cap tracks the aggregate cost basis of coins based on their last on-chain movement, meaning this change signals that a substantial portion of BTC supply has recently changed hands at higher prices. This transfer of influence matters because it reshapes short-term supply dynamics. When newer large holders dominate realized capital, market behavior can become more reactive, with marginal supply increasingly controlled by investors who entered later in the cycle and may be more sensitive to volatility. As Bitcoin battles to reclaim $90,000, this evolving whale structure may help explain why rebounds feel less stable and why selling pressure can reappear quickly during macro-driven pullbacks. New Whales Now Dictate Bitcoin’s Short-Term Direction Realized Cap measures Bitcoin’s aggregate cost basis by valuing coins at the price of their last on-chain movement. When this metric shifts toward new whales—short-term holder whales holding more than 1,000 BTC with UTXO age below 155 days—it signals that a meaningful share of supply has recently changed hands at elevated prices. In other words, market control is moving away from experienced, cycle-tested holders and toward capital that arrived late in the trend. This transition helps explain Bitcoin’s current behavior. The realized price of new whales sits near $98,000, while spot price continues trading below that level. As a result, this cohort is estimated to be carrying roughly $6 billion in unrealized losses. These losses are not just paper drawdowns—they shape decision-making and increase sensitivity to volatility, especially during sharp corrections. On-chain realized PnL data suggests that since the market peak, new whales have driven the bulk of realized losses. During the recent drawdown, they repeatedly sold into weakness and used brief rebounds to exit positions. Reflecting risk management rather than conviction. Old whales tell the opposite story. With a realized price around $40,000, long-term whales remain deeply profitable. Their activity has been limited relative to the flows coming from new whales. For now, Bitcoin’s direction is being dictated by this newer, more fragile whale cohort. Related Reading: XRP Leverage Builds Without Overheating: Open Interest Climbs And Volatility Spikes Bitcoin Breaks Below Key Support Bitcoin is showing renewed weakness after losing the $90,000 psychological level, with price now trading near $88,300 on the daily chart. The structure reflects a clear downtrend from the late-2025 highs, followed by a failed attempt to recover. After a sharp drop in November, BTC stabilized and built a short consolidation base, but the rebound into early January lacked follow-through and quickly turned into another rejection. From a technical perspective, BTC remains trapped below its major moving averages, which are now acting as dynamic resistance. The shorter-term average has rolled over sharply, while the broader trend line above continues to slope downward. Signaling that momentum remains capped, and sellers are still in control on rallies. The recent bounce toward the mid-$90K region was rejected aggressively, confirming that overhead supply remains heavy and buyers are not yet strong enough to flip the trend. Related Reading: Trade War Headlines Trigger $800M In Liquidations Overnight: Longs Get Wiped Out Across Crypto Markets Volume patterns support this narrative. The biggest spikes occurred during the selloff leg, showing forced activity and distribution. While the most recent recovery attempts have been met with weaker participation. As long as Bitcoin stays below the $90K–$92K zone, price action suggests the market is still searching for a stable bottom. The downside risk remains elevated if fear accelerates across the broader crypto market. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Nearly equal losses across long and short positions showed traders were wrong-footed as crypto prices swung violently within hours.