Range-bound price action continues within a familiar cycle pattern.
Bitcoin slid to $91,920 late Sunday in New York, down 3.8% from roughly $95,500, as a sharp risk-off impulse hit crypto markets and quickly bled into high beta majors. Ether fell as much as 5.3% to $3,177, while XRP and Solana underperformed with drawdowns of 10.4% to $1.847 and 9% to $130, respectively, as leveraged positioning was forced out. Why Is Bitcoin And Crypto Down Today? The immediate catalyst was a geopolitics-to-trade headline that landed into a weekend liquidity window: President Donald Trump said the US would impose additional 10% tariffs on imports from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands and Finland starting Feb. 1, escalating to 25% on June 1 unless a deal is reached for the US to acquire Greenland. Related Reading: Bitcoin Long Signal That Preceded 370% Move Is About To Go Off Again — What To Know European officials framed the move as coercive and signaled a coordinated response. Dutch Foreign Minister David van Weel called the threat “blackmail,” adding: “It’s not necessary. It doesn’t help the alliance (NATO).” The targeted countries, many of them NATO allies, issued a stark pushback warning that tariff threats “undermine transatlantic relations and risk a dangerous downward spiral,” while EU representatives convened emergency talks over potential retaliation. France’s President Macron threatened EU’s “anti-coercion instrument.” BREAKING: France’s President Macron calls for the EU to activate its “most potent trade weapon” against the US after President Trump’s tariff threat over Greenland. Macron is now calling for the use of the EU’s “anti-coercion instrument.” If used against the US, it would… pic.twitter.com/E47Bpe03lK — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 18, 2026 For Bitcoin and the entire crypto market, the significance isn’t the tariff math in isolation; it’s the abrupt repricing of global growth and policy risk. When macro traders de-risk into headlines like this, liquid markets tend to transmit the shock first and crypto, with its 24/7 structure and deep derivatives footprint, often becomes the pressure valve. On-chain and venue-level indicators suggested the sell pressure was not simply offshore flow. CryptoQuant analyst Mignolet pointed to an elevated “CPG” (Coinbase Premium Gap), a metric tracking the price differential between Coinbase’s USD market and Binance’s USDT market that is often read as a proxy for US-led demand or supply. “We’re seeing the strongest selling premium (CPG) in recent periods. Since the ETF market was not open at the time, this selling pressure is coming from US whales operating outside of ETFs. It’s one of the traditional selling patterns we’ve seen repeatedly in the past,” Mignolet wrote in a CryptoQuant note. That framing matters because it implies the move wasn’t driven by ETF creations/redemptions, so the marginal seller was active in spot/OTC and derivatives channels that remain open through the weekend. Related Reading: Bitcoin Tailwind: Cathie Wood Sees ‘Reaganomics On Steroids’ Ahead Once spot price slipped through key levels, futures mechanics did the rest. Coinglass data showed 249.422 traders were liquidated, the total liquidations coming in at $874.93 million over the past 24 hours. Longs accounted for $787.92 million versus $87.01 million in shorts, an asymmetric wipeout that typically reflects crowded long exposure being force-closed into falling prices. At press time, Bitcoin recovered to $93,000. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin mining difficulty set for a 4% decline, the seventh negative adjustment in the past eight.
The perpetual preferred equity, SATA, moved above $100, giving Strive access to at-the-market issuance.
U.S.-listed spot bitcoin and ether ETFs logged their strongest week in three months, led by bullish bets.
Roughly $600 million in long crypto positions were liquidated as traders cut leverage and reassessed exposure.
Glassnode says the push toward $96,000 was driven by leverage, while CryptoQuant warns demand remains too weak to confirm a trend reversal.
The so-called Fish-to-Shark cohort added 110,000 BTC over the past 30 days, according to Glassnode.
Institutions are increasingly betting on bitcoin's bullish moves and moving away from sophisticated 'arbitrage' bets.
Going into the weekend, the price of Bitcoin was unable to sustain the bullish momentum it displayed earlier in the past week. Since Friday, January 16th, the world’s leading cryptocurrency, repudiated by the price resistance above, now trades in a tight consolidatory bracket. Interestingly, this period of silence has been deemed transient, as recent on-chain data suggests an exciting time ahead for the BTC price. Kimchi Premium Flips Positive As Local Demand Sees Buildup In a January 17 post on the X platform, DeFi asset management platform XWIN Finance released an on-chain report, which suggests that Bitcoin might be closer to reaching a turning point than is apparent in its price action. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price To $100K: Why All Eyes Are On The Short-Term Holders This hypothesis is based on the Bitcoin Kimchi Premium indicator. This measures the percentage difference between a cryptocurrency’s price (in this case, Bitcoin) on South Korean exchanges and its price on global exchanges. Simply put, it shows how much more Korean traders are willing to pay for Bitcoin. When the Kimchi Premium transitions steadily from low or negative levels to cross above historically significant levels, this is typically viewed as a long signal from the metric. This interpretation is because a rising Kimchi Premium reflects growing local demand in South Korea, usually often influenced by retail buyers. In essence, Korean buyers are willing to pay more for Bitcoin, hence overwhelming the available supply and consequently pushing prices upwards. In the post on X, XWIN Finance highlighted that this long signal had been sighted on the indicator. History also attests to the bullish significance of this signal; there have been major price moves to the upside following sustained increases in the Kimchi Premium. An example is the last sighting of the long signal in October 2023, where the index rose above a major threshold, as shown in the chart above. The price of Bitcoin witnessed a 370% rally after this signal went off in 2023. According to XWIN Research, this same pattern seems to be playing out again in 2026. Hence, if the Kimchi Premium completes its long-signal formation, it could be a sign that buyers are occupying favourable positions for a bullish ride. If history does repeat itself, the Bitcoin price could be on track to witness another exciting voyage, with the flagship cryptocurrency possibly putting in a more than 300% surge in the next cycle. However, it is worth noting that macro conditions, institutional demand, and derivatives activity would be playing their roles to augment the pattern’s plausibility, as it should not be viewed as a standalone bullish sign. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $95,280, reflecting no significant change in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Bitcoin Net Taker Volume Finally Flips Positive — Why This Shift Matters Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Infrastructure, institutions and advisors are laying the groundwork for a structural shift in global finance.
A warning signal is flashing on the charts, with market analysts predicting that the Bitcoin price could collapse again soon. According to technical analysis, if BTC fails to continue its uptrend, it could repeat the bear-market crash from past cycles, potentially dragging its price down by double-digit percentages. Bitcoin Price To Repeat 2022 Bear Market Crash? Crypto analyst Tyrex believes that Bitcoin may be approaching a critical turning point if the current uptrend fails to hold. In his latest BTC price outlook on X, he compares the current market structure to the April 2022 cycle, when Bitcoin made an ATH and then crashed hard for weeks. Related Reading: Ethereum On Fire: User Growth Sparks Massive Activity Spike Tyrex disclosed that Bitcoin dropped roughly 45% from its all-time high in 2022 before entering an extended consolidation phase that lasted nearly four months. The accompanying chart shows that during that period, prices respected clear horizontal boundaries, creating a false sense of strength and stability, all while underlying weakness continued to build. That consolidation eventually led to an upside fakeout, with the Bitcoin price briefly breaking resistance before reversing sharply. Unfortunately, the rejection triggered a continuation of the broader downtrend that year, resulting in another aggressive price crash that wiped out remaining bullish confidence. According to Tyrex, BTC’s current chart structure closely mirrors the same historical setup from 2022. Bitcoin has once again pulled back sharply after reaching an all-time high of over $126,000. Additionally, the cryptocurrency has spent roughly two months consolidating within a defined range, repeatedly stalling at resistance levels. Tyrex warns that Bitcoin is barely holding above $95,000, which aligns with the resistance zone shown on the chart. If price fails to recover and continues to stall near this level, the move higher could turn out to be a fakeout, potentially leading to another sharp dump— just as it did in 2022. The red-shaded area on the chart shows how far BTC could crash if the uptrend breaks, with the analyst projecting an 11.04% drop to the $86,000-$84,000 range. Bitcoin Set For March ATH And May Flash Crash Another forecast from market expert CryptoXLarge outlines where Bitcoin could be headed over the next four months. The analyst bases the outlook on historical market behavior, suggesting the current cycle may be replicating past cycle peaks. CryptoXLarge points to January 2026 as a phase of quiet accumulation with controlled price action and muted volatility. February is expected to bring a powerful rally as momentum builds rapidly and buyers push the BTC price higher. This surge could set the stage for Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high around $240,000 in March. Related Reading: Ethereum Staking Hits Record Levels As Buterin Urges Builders To Deliver Real Apps After this projected peak, April will likely be a bull trap where the price appears strong but fails to sustain upward momentum. The forecast concludes with a warning of a flash crash in May 2026, during which prices could pull back to fresh lows. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Ark's data shows bitcoin has weak price correlations with stocks, bonds, and gold, making it potentially attractive for risk-adjusted portfolio management.
Bitcoin remains anchored above key support as weekend trading unfolds, keeping $98,200 and $107,500 in focus. Market participants are watching closely to see if the uptrend can continue or if the weekend liquidity will trigger a test of lower levels. The next few sessions could define BTC’s short-term trajectory. Key Support Holds: $94,630 Remains Crucial According to a recent post by Kamile Uray, Bitcoin is still holding strong above the $89,326 support level, and as long as it remains above this zone, the possibility for the uptrend to continue remains intact. This level continues to act as a critical foundation for bulls, keeping the market structure aligned with potential further gains. Related Reading: Bitcoin Flashes Near-Identical Fractal Before The 2021 Bull Run Started If BTC manages to break through the $98,200 resistance, the next key target at $107,500 comes into focus. At this level, a decisive move will determine whether the current uptrend is complete or push Bitcoin even higher. A daily close above $107,500 would mark the first higher high on the daily chart relative to the last downward wave, signaling a potential continuation of the bullish trend. However, if BTC is rejected at resistance and falls back below $89,326, the downtrend could resume. Should a reversal form within the $83,822–$82,477 support zone, Bitcoin may attempt another upward push, giving bulls a chance to regain control. If BTC closes below $82,477, further downside is expected, potentially testing the $74,496–$71,237 region. This zone has historically served as a strong support area, and any confirmed reversal from here could set the stage for another bullish leg. Bitcoin Weekend Liquidity Ahead: Expect Range-Bound Action Crypto expert Lennaert Snyder outlined that Bitcoin is holding the key $94,630 support level, which also serves as the crucial H4 level to hold. On Friday, BTC retraced and briefly swept this low before stabilizing, reinforcing the importance of this zone for short-term market structure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Compresses Below $94K, But Possible Repeat Of 2025 Breakout Looms As we enter the weekend liquidity, Bitcoin is likely to trade within a defined range until Sunday evening or Monday. For bullish traders, the plan is to hold the low and watch for a market structure break above $95,820. Once this occurs, long positions could target the $97,960 monthly high. In anticipation of continued upside, only part of the position may be closed at the monthly high, letting 30%-40% run to capture further gains if momentum persists. However, if BTC loses the $94,630 support on the H4 and falls back into the previous range, a continuation toward lower lows becomes more likely. In that scenario, short positions would be considered after confirmation on a retest, giving traders a structured approach to managing risk and potential downside. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
The price of Bitcoin began the new week on an exciting move to the upside. The premier cryptocurrency recorded a price ascent of about 9%, reaching a high of over $97,000 and falling just short of its past six-figure valuation. Interestingly, a recent on-chain revelation shows that an underlying change was simultaneously taking place as the price of Bitcoin soared on the charts. Are The BTC Bulls Back In Control? In a January 16 post on social media platform X, crypto analyst Darkfost revealed a notable shift in the on-chain power dynamics, saying that the bulls are seemingly back in control. The relevant indicator here is the BTC Net Taker Volume, which tracks which of the buyers or sellers is more aggressive in the market. The metric does so by measuring the net difference between buy and sell market orders executed on derivatives exchanges. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breaks Free From The Current Range — $107,000 Now The Level To Watch Before this recent shift, the net taker volume had fallen into deep negative territory, reaching a bottom of about –$489 million. Due to the lack of demand in the market over that period, the price of BTC continued to fall as selling pressure grew. However, this market scenario has shifted, as of Friday, January 16th. The Bitcoin Net Taker Volume now records a positive reading, with more than $39 million in buy-side volume from the futures market. This means BTC traders are becoming increasingly interested in opening long positions — and aggressively at that. Historically, an increasing buying interest among participants of the futures market typically signals rising bullish sentiment. In turn, upward price pressure increases through leverage, leading to amplified short-term price moves if sustained. Bitcoin Market Outlook Darkfost further explained that, although there are signs that Bitcoin ETF inflows might be picking up slightly, it remains that spot buying is yet to gain enough strength to sponsor a decisive bullish move. As a result, all eyes fall on derivatives activity, as it currently serves as support for the Bitcoin price. Ultimately, the present scenario is best interpreted as the end of bearish pressure, rather than a blatant structure shift. However, in the event that net taker volume continues to grow positively, the narrative could shift from dwindling bearish pressure to mounting bullish momentum. Till then, market participants are advised to deal cautiously until it is confirmed that the derivatives-sponsored momentum is sustainable for the flagship cryptocurrency’s growth. As of press time, the price of Bitcoin stands at about $95,357, with insignificant movement over the past day. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Accompanied By ‘Very Bullish’ Whale-Retail Behavior, Santiment Says Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Two independent miners mined full blocks and collected roughly 3.15 BTC each, an uncommon outcome in a network dominated by large pools.
The Bitcoin price resumed its hot start to the new year this week, jumping above the $97,000 mark for the first time since November 2025. The flagship cryptocurrency reignited debates about the current phase of the market in its latest attempt to reclaim its six-figure valuation. Having surpassed the previously formidable $94,000 technical level, the Bitcoin price seemed set to cross the $100,000 mark again. However, recent on-chain evaluation has brought focus on an ongoing phenomenon among a specific set of investors in the market. Bitcoin Price Action Could Hinge On STH Realized Price In a January 16 post on the X platform, pseudonymous crypto analyst Darkfost revealed that the average realized price of the Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs) is another key level to watch. This price level represents the average price where the most recent (1-3 months) set of BTC investors acquired their coins. Related Reading: Bitcoin Tailwind: Cathie Wood Sees ‘Reaganomics On Steroids’ Ahead According to data highlighted by Darkfost, this STH realized price currently sits at around $102,000, meaning that the majority of the Bitcoin short-term investors are at a loss. The market pundit noted that this particular evaluation is adjusted to account for the 800,000 BTC recently moved by Coinbase. Darkfost noted that, as the Bitcoin price approached the realized price of the short-term holders, the investors are caught between two primary choices. It is either this group of investors holds and hopes for further upside, or they exit once they break even. Given that they are the most reactive set of investors, the Bitcoin short-term holders have not hesitated in taking short-term profits, as indicated by the latest exchange inflows. Darkfost, however, noted that the STH realized price level will be crucial to watch once all the profit-taking is done. Darkfost said that the Bitcoin price trading below this cost basis historically represents a good accumulation opportunity. Nevertheless, the analyst warned that bear market periods should be excluded, as short-term holders tend to witness prolonged drawdowns and pain during this season. STH Cost Basis Key For Momentum To Re-Accelerate Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish agreed in a recent post on X that the STH average realized price is a key inflection point. According to the market pundit, the Bitcoin price reclaiming this cost basis would signal that recent buyers are back in profit. Beamish stated that reclaiming the STH realized price would be necessary for bullish momentum to re-accelerate, while failure to do so would keep the BTC market in recovery mode. As of this writing, the Bitcoin price stands at around at $95,300, reflecting no significant change in the past day. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Accompanied By ‘Very Bullish’ Whale-Retail Behavior, Santiment Says Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
On-chain data shows Bitcoin short-term holders have transferred a large amount of tokens to exchanges alongside the asset’s recovery rally. Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Have Made Profit Transactions To Exchanges In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about the latest trend in the exchange deposit transactions of Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs). Related Reading: XRP In A ‘Super Cycle’? SuperTrend Suggests Another Story STHs include the BTC investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. They make up for one of the two main sides of the network divided on the basis of holding time, with the other side being known as long-term holders (LTHs). Historically, the STH cohort has proven to represent the weak hands of the market, who easily react to market volatility. In contrast, LTHs include the diamond hands of the sector. Bitcoin has witnessed a recovery rally recently, so, considering the track record of STHs, some selling from them is likely to have occurred. One way to track distribution from the group is through its exchange inflow data. Below is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the exchange deposit transactions that Bitcoin STHs have made over the last couple of months. In the graph, the STH exchange inflows are shown separately for profit and loss transactions, based on whether holders held an unrealized gain or loss before sending the tokens to exchanges. From the chart, it’s apparent that the 24-hour sum of the STH exchange deposit transactions in profit has shot up as the cryptocurrency has gone through its rally, reaching a high of 41,800 BTC. Meanwhile, loss exchange inflows have shrunken, falling to a low of 1,800 BTC. Thus, it would appear that selling focus from STHs has largely shifted to profit-taking. Though, while some STHs may be harvesting profits, the cohort has a whole is still in a state of net unrealized loss as Bitcoin is trading below the STH Realized Profit, as highlighted by the analyst in another X post. The “Realized Price” is an on-chain metric that measures the average cost basis of Bitcoin investors or addresses as a whole. The STH version specifically tracks the break-even level of the supply purchased within the past 155 days. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Accompanied By ‘Very Bullish’ Whale-Retail Behavior, Santiment Says As displayed in the above chart, the Bitcoin spot price plummeted under the STH Realized Price during the drawdown of Q4 2025. Since then, it has remained under the line, although the latest rally has brought it close. Currently, the indicator’s value is situated at $99,412. BTC Price Bitcoin has gone down since its high above $97,000 earlier in the week as its price is now trading around $94,600. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin may be replaying a market structure that historically preceded one of its most powerful rallies. A high-timeframe trader has identified a fractal that closely mirrored Bitcoin’s behavior ahead of the 2021 bull run. He argues that the current cycle is unfolding in line with a well-established structural script observed across multiple market cycles spanning more than a decade. Bitcoin’s Fractal: Rooted In High-Timeframe Structure The fractal highlighted by the trader is based on a direct structural comparison between Bitcoin’s current cycle and the 2021 setup, illustrated in a chart he attached to his analysis. The chart aligns both periods to show how price advanced into a broad distribution range, rolled over into a sharp corrective phase, and then attempted to recover while capped by descending resistance. In both cases, Bitcoin retraced to the 0.382 Fibonacci level before stabilizing, marking a shared technical inflection point rather than a coincidental price overlap. Related Reading: XRP Price Is Approaching A Key Decision Zone, But Structure Is Still Firmly Bullish This structural symmetry extends beyond price levels into timing. According to the trader, the current cycle has tracked the rhythm of prior four-year cycles with notable consistency, allowing historical all-time highs and lows to be mapped objectively. Using that same framework, the data previously supported a high-probability short near the peak candle around $123,000, reinforcing his view that recurring market structure continues to guide directional risk. By comparing the two cycles directly, the trader argues that Bitcoin’s behavior is being evaluated through a recurring structural pattern that has remained intact for more than 12 years, rather than through subjective bias. $100,000 As A Structural And Psychological Ceiling Within the identified fractal, psychological resistance is a key determinant of Bitcoin’s upside potential. Looking back at 2021, Bitcoin failed to decisively reclaim the $50,000 level and instead front-ran it before reversing, establishing a behavioral precedent for how traders respond to significant round-number thresholds. Applying this pattern to the current cycle, $100,000 now functions as the analogous psychological ceiling. As a result, some participants may act preemptively, which could generate selling pressure from underwater holders and distribution by larger players. Related Reading: Pundit Reveals The Biggest Enemy Of XRP Investors As Price Struggles At $2 This potential resistance is reinforced by diagonal trendlines that mirror the caps observed in 2021, creating a structural limit on upside momentum. Within this context, short-term extensions into the $98,000–$99,000 range remain plausible and are fully compatible with the fractal, as price can approach the psychological ceiling. Moreover, positioning data from the past six to eight months indicates that the median short-term buyer cost basis has clustered between $95,000 and $100,000, highlighting zones where profit-taking and defensive selling are likely to intensify. These elements suggest a scenario where price may test resistance, experience temporary stalls, and respect structural limits without invalidating the broader high-timeframe thesis. However, the trader notes that the framework is probabilistic: only a sustained move above $104,000–$105,000 would break the fractal pattern and necessitate a full reassessment of the high-timeframe trend. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Recent allegations regarding the Bitcoin (BTC) sale by the US Marshal Service (USMS) — operating under the Department of Justice (DOJ) — have been addressed by White House crypto advisor Patrick Witt, who confirmed that the digital assets forfeited by Samourai Wallet and its founders have not been liquidated. DOJ Confirms Samourai Bitcoin Will Not Be Sold In a post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), Witt clarified that the DOJ has verified that the digital assets taken from the Samourai Wallet will not be sold, in accordance with Executive Order 14233. He emphasized that these assets will remain on the government’s balance sheet as part of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Related Reading: Bitcoin And Crypto ETFs Set To Attract $130 Billion-Plus Inflows This Year, JPMorgan Predicts Earlier in the month, speculations suggested that the USMS, following directives from the DOJ, had sold approximately 57.55 Bitcoin forfeited in the Samourai Wallet case through Coinbase Prime on November 3, 2025. The lack of confirmation until now had led experts to assert that such actions would violate EO 14233, signed by President Donald Trump. This order mandates that Bitcoin obtained through criminal or civil forfeiture be retained and added to the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, rather than being sold off. The Bitcoin in question is valued at almost $6.4 million and was seized from the creators of Samourai Wallet. According to US authorities, the cryptocurrency mixer facilitated over $237 million worth of illicit transactions. Samourai Wallet’s Co-Founders Face Justice The DOJ had announced in November the sentencing of Keonne Rodriguez and William Lonergan Hill, the co-founders of Samourai Wallet. Rodriguez, the company’s CEO, and Hill, its Chief Technology Officer, were implicated in a conspiracy involving the operation of a money transmitting business that “knowingly” transmitted proceeds from criminal activities. Related Reading: XRP Will Skyrocket Beyond $18: Analyst Suggests 800% Growth Potential In 2026 The criminal proceeds laundered through their platform originated from various illegal activities, including drug trafficking, darknet marketplace operations, cyber intrusions, fraud, murder-for-hire schemes, and even a child pornography website. Rodriguez received a five-year prison sentence, while Hill was sentenced to four years. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $95,300, marking an almost 6% increase over the past seven days. However, it is still unable to regain the key $100,000 level, which has eluded the cryptocurrency since November last year. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Crypto analyst TARA has predicted that the Bitcoin price will still rally despite bearish signals that have surfaced. She highlighted why the flagship crypto could reach this level and what could happen once it touches the price target. Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Surge To $99,000 In an X post, TARA opined that the Bitcoin price will reach $99,300, even though the flagship crypto is printing a bearish candlestick. She stated that BTC wants to touch this price target before it retraces deeper so that the correction does not break the critical support at $90,000. The analyst added that retracement levels for BTC will continue to be adjusted, with the new 2026 high above $97,000, while revealing subwaves on the way to the full target at $103,000. Related Reading: Analyst Outlines The Bulllish And Bearish Scenarios For Bitcoin – Here’s What To Know Notably, crypto traders are currently betting on the Bitcoin price rallying past the $99,000 level and reaching the psychological $100,000 level. Polymarket data shows a 48% chance that BTC will rally to $100,000 this month. This follows the flagship crypto’s recent rally from around $92,000 to above $97,000 following the release of the soft CPI inflation data earlier this week. The spot Bitcoin ETFs have also contributed to the Bitcoin price surge to start the year. In an X post, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas highlighted that ETFs recorded net inflows of $843 million on January 14 and now boast 1-week net inflows of $1 billion and $1.5 billion year-to-date (YTD). With BTC rallying to $97,000 after trading sideways towards the end of last year, Balchunas opined that the buyers may have exhausted the sellers. Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Rally On Rising Liquidity In his latest blog post, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted that the Bitcoin price could sustain this rally as dollar liquidity rapidly increases. Hayes expects dollar liquidity to increase as U.S. President Donald Trump finds more ways to inject liquidity into the economy. The BitMEX co-founder highlighted how Trump plans to lower mortgage rates, which could cause Americans to borrow more. Related Reading: What’s Going On With Bitcoin And The Stock Market? Analyst Breaks It Down Hayes also mentioned that the liquidity in 2025 didn’t support crypto portfolios, which is why the Bitcoin price underperformed. He urged market participants not to draw wrong conclusions from the 2025 underperformance, as it was always a liquidity story rather than a cyclical bear market, as some analysts suggested. More liquidity could also flow into the market as Trump nominates a rate-cut advocate to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell. This could lead to larger rate cuts, which would be bullish for the Bitcoin price and the broader crypto market. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $95,300, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
A selloff in precious metals and lower U.S. stocks appeared to be denting crypto sentiment.
U.S.-listed bitcoin miners entered 2026 with rising revenues, improving margins and recovering valuations, setting a more constructive near-term backdrop.
Shares climb more than 5% in pre-market trading as the company reinforces long term Bitcoin strategy.
The institutional bitcoin manager expands its mandate as demand for professional risk-managed digital asset strategies grows.
Cathie Wood is arguing that the next phase of US policy and macro could recreate an early-1980s style risk-on regime, one that, in her telling, strengthens the case for bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier even as it complicates the “digital gold” narrative. In a post on X, the ARK Invest CEO said “the next three years could be Reaganomics on steroids,” pointing to deregulation, tax cuts, “sound monetary policy,” and “peace through strength” as ingredients for a stronger dollar and capped gold prices. Her January 15 “New Year letter,” titled Cathie Wood’s 2026 Outlook: The US Economy Is A Coiled Spring, lays out the mechanics behind that analogy and places crypto explicitly inside the policy and productivity story. A “Coiled Spring” Macro Thesis Wood’s central claim is that the US has looked sturdier than it really is because weakness has rotated through rate-sensitive pockets rather than hitting the whole economy at once. “Despite sustained real gross domestic product (GDP) growth during the past three years, the underlying US economy has suffered a rolling recession and has evolved into a coiled spring that could bounce back powerfully during the next few years. In response to COVID-related supply shocks, the record-breaking 22-fold surge in the Fed funds rate from 0.25% in March 2022 to 5.5% in the sixteen months ended July 2023 pushed housing, manufacturing, non-AI capital spending, and low-to-middle income America into recession.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Accompanied By ‘Very Bullish’ Whale-Retail Behavior, Santiment Says She anchors the housing leg with a specific trough: existing home sales fell 40% from a 5.9 million annual rate in January 2021 to 3.5 million in October 2023, which she notes is “a level last seen in November 2010.” From there, Wood pivots to policy impulse and cash-flow relief. “Thanks to the confluence of deregulation and lower taxes (including tariffs), inflation, and interest rates, the rolling recession which has characterized the last few years in the US could turn quickly and sharply during the next year and beyond. Deregulation is unleashing innovation in every sector, led by the first AI and Crypto Czar, David Sacks, in the AI and digital assets space. Meanwhile, lower taxes on tips, overtime, and social security should hand US consumers significant refunds this quarter, potentially driving real disposable income growth up from ~2% at an annual rate during the second half of 2025 to ~8.3% this quarter.” She also argues corporate cash flows could be boosted by accelerated depreciation, writing that it could push the effective corporate tax rate “down toward 10%,” with 100% first-year depreciation for equipment, software and domestic R&D made permanent and retroactive to January 1, 2025. Gold, Bitcoin, And The Dollar Wood’s inflation case is concrete and component-driven. She points to oil falling from about $124 on March 8, 2022 to a level that’s roughly 53% lower, and down about 22% year-over-year as of ARK’s January 12 data cut. She adds that single-family home sale prices are down about 15% from the October 2022 peak, while existing home price inflation (three-month moving average) decelerated from roughly 24% YoY in June 2021 to about 1.3%. On labor, she cites non-farm productivity up 1.9% YoY (third quarter), compensation per man-hour up 3.2%, and unit labor cost inflation at 1.2%. She then pushes a real-time check: Truflation at 1.7% YoY as of January 7, nearly 100 bps below CPI-based inflation. The crypto hook comes through her attempt to split gold’s recent run from bitcoin’s role in portfolios. “During 2025, the gold price appreciated 65% as the price of bitcoin slipped 6%. While many observers have attributed the 166% surge in the gold price from $1,600 to $4,300 since the end of the US equity bear market in October 2022 to the risk of inflation, another interpretation is that global wealth creation… has outpaced the ~1.8% annualized increase in the gold supply globally.” Related Reading: Glassnode: Bitcoin Is Back At $96K, Hitting The Same Sell Ceiling Again Wood then leans on supply schedules and correlations. She notes bitcoin’s supply is “mathematically metered” to rise about 0.82% per year for the next two years before slowing to ~0.41%, and argues that diversification — not “digital gold” rhetoric — is the cleaner allocator lens. In ARK’s correlation matrix using weekly returns from 1/1/2020 through 1/6/2026, bitcoin’s correlation is 0.14 to gold, 0.06 to bonds, and 0.28 to the S&P 500; the S&P 500–bonds correlation is shown at 0.27. Finally, she brings it back to FX: after a year in which the trade-weighted dollar (DXY) fell 11% in the first half and 9% for the full year, Wood argues that higher US returns on invested capital, driven by fiscal, deregulation, and US-led technological breakthroughs, could push the dollar higher, echoing the early Reagan period when “the dollar nearly doubled.” If Wood’s “Reaganomics on steroids” framing gains traction, the near-term market implication is less about a single bitcoin price target and more about positioning: a regime she expects to feature falling inflation, lower rates, and heavy AI capex (data-center systems investment up 47% to nearly $500 billion in 2025, with a further 20% to roughly $600 billion expected in 2026) is one where allocators may revisit where bitcoin sits on the risk spectrum, and whether its low cross-asset correlation is the more durable thesis than any one-line comparison to gold. While Wood’s 2026 outlook does not publish a specific Bitcoin price target, ARK has previously outlined 2030 scenarios for BTC of roughly $300,000 (bear), $710,000 (base), and $1.2 million (bull). At press time, BTC traded at $95,685. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin has shown renewed bullish momentum in recent sessions, pushing price back toward the $97,000 level after weeks of persistent selling pressure. For much of the recent consolidation, the market struggled under distribution from short-term participants and cautious positioning from traders who remained uncertain about the broader trend. That dynamic now appears to be shifting. While price action alone does not confirm a full trend reversal, the latest rebound suggests that downside pressure is easing and that buyers are becoming more willing to absorb available supply. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Take Control: Futures Positioning Turns Bullish for First Time Since October This improvement in price behavior is supported by on-chain context rather than pure speculation. A quick insight from a CryptoQuant analyst highlights a rare development in market sentiment: the Bitcoin Bull Score Index has dropped to 20, a level that has historically appeared only a handful of times over the past several years. Such readings typically reflect deeply pessimistic conditions, when bullish signals across multiple indicators are scarce. Paradoxically, these environments often coincide with transitional phases rather than sustained declines. When bearish sentiment becomes widespread and measurable optimism disappears, markets tend to become increasingly sensitive to even modest improvements in demand. Bitcoin Bull Score Hits A Rare Historical Level Over the past six years, the Bitcoin Bull Score Index has fallen to levels of 20 or lower only seven times. The market is now experiencing the seventh occurrence, placing the current environment among the rarest sentiment regimes in Bitcoin’s history. This index aggregates multiple on-chain and market indicators to assess whether conditions favor bullish continuation or reflect broad-based weakness. Readings near 20 indicate that very few bullish signals are active at the same time, highlighting a market dominated by caution rather than optimism. Historically, such extremes have tended to appear during transitional phases. They often emerge late in corrections, when selling pressure has largely played out, but confidence has not yet returned. This does not guarantee an immediate reversal. However, it does suggest that downside momentum is becoming increasingly fragile, as most participants who wanted to de-risk have already done so. The timing of this signal is particularly relevant as Bitcoin approaches a critical psychological zone near $100,000. This level represents both a major round-number resistance and a key reference point for short-term and long-term holders. The coming weeks will be decisive. A sustained push toward and above $100K, accompanied by improving breadth in on-chain indicators, would likely mark a shift away from defensive positioning. Conversely, failure at this level could reinforce consolidation and prolong uncertainty. Related Reading: OG Bitcoin Selling Slows Sharply: Long-Dormant Coins Go Quiet Weekly Chart Shows Recovery Attempt Below Resistance Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a market attempting to reassert strength after a prolonged corrective phase, with price now trading around the $96,000–$97,000 zone. This area is technically important, as it aligns with a former consolidation range that acted as support during mid-2025 and later flipped into resistance after the November breakdown. The recent rebound suggests buyers are willing to defend higher lows, but confirmation remains incomplete. From a trend perspective, Bitcoin is still trading below the declining 50-week moving average, which currently caps upside attempts. This level has acted as dynamic resistance during previous bear-to-neutral transitions. And will be a critical area to reclaim for trend continuation. Below the price, the 100-week moving average continues to slope upward and has provided structural support during the recent pullbacks. Reinforcing the idea that the broader market structure remains intact despite short-term weakness. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Near A Profit Flip: A Key Level Comes Into Focus Volume behavior is also notable. The rebound toward $97,000 occurred without a major expansion in volume, revealing that the move may still lack strong conviction. This supports the view that the current advance could be a recovery leg within a larger consolidation rather than the start of an impulse. If Bitcoin can consolidate above $95,000 and eventually reclaim the 50-week moving average, the probability of a continuation toward the $105,000–$110,000 region increases. Failure to hold this zone would expose the market to renewed downside tests toward the mid-$80,000s. Keeping the broader consolidation unresolved. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin steadies near $95K as prediction markets, market makers, and desks point to a momentum-driven run at $100K rather than a decisive breakout.
Bitcoin has pushed above the $97,000 level, extending a recovery that has brought short-term relief to a market weighed down by weeks of uncertainty. While the move has reignited optimism among some investors, a large share of analysts remains cautious, arguing that the rally could still be a counter-trend bounce within a broader bearish setup for 2026. Price strength alone, however, does not fully explain the current move. According to a CryptoQuant analyst, Bitcoin has shown notable resilience after decisively breaking the $94,200 resistance zone and accelerating toward the $97,500 area, with on-chain data offering important context behind the advance. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Take Control: Futures Positioning Turns Bullish for First Time Since October One of the key indicators supporting this move is Value Days Destroyed (VDD), a metric that sheds light on long-term holder behavior. VDD measures how long coins remained inactive before being spent, weighted by transaction size. In simple terms, it helps distinguish whether price movements are driven by experienced holders distributing old coins or by newer coins changing hands. As of January 2026, VDD is hovering around 0.53, a historically low reading. This implies that the coins currently moving on the network are relatively young, while older holdings remain largely dormant. Such behavior suggests that long-term holders are not rushing to sell into strength, lending structural support to the recent breakout—even as the broader market debates whether this surge marks renewed strength or merely a temporary reprieve. Long-Term Holders Reinforce Bitcoin’s Breakout Quality The report by Carmelo Alemán, Verified On-Chain Analyst at CryptoQuant, highlights an important dynamic behind Bitcoin’s recent move above key resistance levels. Despite the sharp price appreciation, long-term holders remain largely inactive. In practical terms, this means that investors who have held Bitcoin through multiple cycles are not using the current strength as an opportunity to exit positions. Their restraint significantly improves the quality of the rally. Historically, this behavior has mattered. When Bitcoin advances while Value Days Destroyed (VDD) stays low, it signals that older coins are not entering circulation. Demand is being met primarily by younger supply, allowing price to rise without triggering structural selling pressure from the most experienced market participants. These phases have often aligned with healthier expansion periods rather than short-lived speculative spikes. The current breakout fits that historical pattern. Bitcoin’s move through resistance has not been accompanied by a surge in long-dormant coins being spent. Instead, long-term capital appears comfortable holding through higher prices, suggesting confidence in the broader market structure rather than urgency to lock in gains. This supportive backdrop remains conditional. As long as VDD stays suppressed, the rally retains a strong foundation. However, a sustained increase in the indicator would change the narrative, signaling that long-term holders are beginning to distribute and potentially marking a shift toward heavier selling pressure. Related Reading: OG Bitcoin Selling Slows Sharply: Long-Dormant Coins Go Quiet Price Tests Key Resistance After December Rebound Bitcoin price is trying to stabilize after a sharp rebound from the December lows, with the chart showing BTC reclaiming the $96,000–$97,000 zone. This level coincides with a confluence of technical factors, making it a critical area for short-term direction. The recent recovery followed a strong sell-off from the November highs. Where the price broke below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages and briefly capitulated toward the low $80,000s. From a structure perspective, BTC is now printing higher lows on the daily timeframe, signaling a potential short-term trend reversal. Price has also reclaimed the 50-day moving average, which often acts as dynamic resistance during downtrends. Holding above this level would be constructive, as it suggests buyers are regaining control after weeks of distribution and volatility. Related Reading: Bitcoin LTH SOPR Signals Early Capitulation, But Selling Pressure Remains Contained However, overhead resistance remains significant. The 100-day and 200-day moving averages, currently clustered between $100,000 and $108,000, represent a heavy supply zone where previous breakdowns occurred. A failure to push higher could lead to renewed consolidation or a pullback toward the $92,000–$94,000 support range. Volume has increased during the rebound, showing genuine participation rather than a low-liquidity bounce. Still, the broader trend remains unclear. For bullish momentum, Bitcoin needs acceptance above $97,000 and a clear attempt toward the $100,000 psychological level. Otherwise, the move risks being a technical rebound within a larger corrective phase. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com