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Crypto analyst Will Taylor, founder of CryptoinsightUK, says XRP may be approaching a defining market setup as US regulatory clarity, Ripple’s infrastructure buildout and broader macro liquidity pressures converge. In the Week 195 edition of The Weekly Insight, Taylor argued that the market may be underestimating the significance of recent progress around the Clarity Act, particularly for assets tied to institutional settlement and financial infrastructure. The newsletter framed XRP as one of the clearest expressions of that thesis, while noting that the view represents personal opinion rather than financial advice. XRP Thesis Centers On Regulation And Ripple Taylor’s XRP case rests on a simple premise: if US crypto legislation eventually removes the regulatory uncertainty that has kept institutions cautious, the market will have to reassess whether Ripple’s long-running utility thesis can finally be tested at scale. “If we look specifically at XRP, I genuinely believe that Ripple has spent years building a full stack financial solution,” Taylor wrote. “That includes a prime brokerage, a stablecoin company, a stablecoin itself, custody infrastructure, clearing solutions, treasury integrations, and systems designed to move and settle value on the XRP ledger, while also holding a significant amount of XRP themselves.” The analyst acknowledged the common criticism that Ripple has used XRP sales to fund adjacent businesses. But he argued that clearer legislation would force a more decisive market verdict. Related Reading: XRP Holders Rise Rapidly To Hit A New All-Time High, Will Price Follow? “At that point, the excuse that institutions cannot engage because of unclear regulation disappears,” Taylor wrote. “The legislation will be there, the infrastructure will be there, and then we finally get to see whether utility is real or whether it was all just speculation.” Taylor linked the XRP setup to broader developments in Washington, saying the Clarity Act’s passage through the Senate Banking Committee increased the probability that crypto market structure legislation could eventually become law. The bill still requires broader congressional approval and a presidential signature, according to the newsletter. “This is why we are here. This is why many of us got involved in the first place,” he wrote. “If this legislation gets through, I think it fundamentally changes how the world views crypto. We go from pure speculation about utility to actually beginning to see integration happen in real time.” He added that markets often reprice before utility fully arrives, based on the expectation that integration is coming. In XRP’s case, that would mean price may begin reacting before any large-scale institutional use becomes visible on-chain. Taylor also pointed to XRP liquidity conditions, saying liquidity continues to build above current price levels on the daily timeframe. In his view, that suggests more shorts are entering the market, potentially creating “additional fuel” if price begins to move higher. Macro Backdrop Adds To The Setup The XRP argument was placed inside a wider macro framework. Taylor said the week had been important for risk assets, citing positive rhetoric from a meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in China, progress on crypto legislation, and the confirmation process for Kevin Warsh. Related Reading: XRP Ledger Hits Record High In 10K+ Wallets As Larger Holders Accumulate At the same time, he warned that global bond market pressure remains a key risk. The US 10-year yield was described as being around 4.5%, while U.K. gilts had pushed to their highest levels since 2007. Taylor said markets appear divided between a bullish camp expecting policy support and a bearish camp expecting a larger financial event. His own view leans toward intervention. He suggested policymakers may attempt to stabilize bond markets through liquidity measures, reassurance or a new backstop mechanism, rather than allow systemic stress to accelerate. For crypto, Taylor sees that as potentially powerful. If policymakers extend the cycle and support risk assets while crypto regulation advances, assets with institutional narratives could benefit most. Taylor said he believes there is a scenario where $10 trillion to $100 trillion moves on-chain over the next five to ten years, with supply illiquidity potentially amplifying price effects as assets become harder to accumulate. “But now we are reaching the stage where many of the things people speculated about for years are potentially starting to become reality,” Taylor wrote. “And the next phase from here is finding out whether the investment thesis was actually correct.” At press time, XRP traded at $1.38. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

XRP transaction volume on the XRP Ledger surged 65% over the past twelve months — from 43 million to 71 million transactions — setting a new record that a digital asset treasury firm argues reflects something far more significant than speculative activity: measurable, institutional-grade utility arriving quietly on the ledger while most of the market is watching price charts. Related Reading: Bitmine ETH Holdings Cross 5.2 Million—CEO Announces New Phase For Crypto Markets The data was shared by Evernorth (@evernorthxrp), a purpose-built digital asset treasury focused on XRP, in a post on X. The firm was pointed in its framing: speculative volume on a blockchain comes in bursts. What the XRPL is recording looks different — steady, programmatic, and tied to real businesses moving real money, according to the post. XRP Ledger sees massive increase in network utility driven by transactions from crypto exchanges and other institutional users. Source: evernorthxrp on X Who Is Actually Driving The XRP Volume The top drivers behind the 12-month transaction surge, per Evernorth’s analysis, span a notably diverse institutional base. Bitstamp, one of the world’s oldest regulated cryptocurrency exchanges, sits alongside RLUSD — Ripple’s US dollar stablecoin — as well as Justoken, Braza Bank, a Brazilian financial institution settling cross-border payments on the ledger, and VERT. Exchanges, stablecoin issuers, DeFi protocols, and a Latin American bank are all settling on the same infrastructure, the firm noted — a composition that signals demand distribution rather than concentration in a single use case. The Institutional Plumbing Most Investors Are Missing The transaction surge does not exist in isolation. In a separate blog post published May 8, Sagar Shah, Chief Business Officer at Evernorth, laid out what he described as the most under-discussed XRP story of 2026 — a series of protocol-level upgrades that have quietly built the compliance and settlement infrastructure that regulated capital requires before committing to a public blockchain. The upgrades, shipped across a six-month window, include Multi-Purpose Tokens with compliance rules embedded directly into the token itself, per the XLS-33 standard activated in October 2025. Permissioned Domains went live in February 2026, enabling banks to establish closed on-chain environments where every participating wallet has been KYC’d and credentialed. Token Escrow followed days later — delivering on-chain Delivery-versus-Payment settlement, the standard that backs trillions of dollars of traditional securities trades daily, according to the Evernorth post. A Permissioned DEX, functioning as the on-chain equivalent of a regulated dark pool, completed the settlement layer. A native zero-knowledge proof verifier, developed by Boundless and XRPL Commons and currently live on testnet, adds a programmable privacy layer that allows institutions to settle large trades on a public blockchain without broadcasting transaction details to competitors, per the post. Institutional Access Has Been Compounding The protocol upgrades are running in parallel with a growing institutional access stack, per Evernorth’s analysis. CME Group launched XRP futures in May 2025, with open interest crossing $1 billion within three months — the fastest any CME crypto contract has reached that threshold. Guggenheim issued tokenized commercial paper directly on XRPL in June 2025, backed by US Treasuries and rated Prime-1 by Moody’s, with over $280 million in volume. Société Générale, a European bank managing approximately $1.8 trillion in assets, chose XRPL as one of only three public blockchains to host its EU-regulated euro stablecoin, which went live in February 2026. Five US spot XRP ETFs launched between November and December 2025, with inflows crossing $1 billion by mid-December — the fastest institutional adoption of any digital asset since Ethereum’s ETF launch, according to the Evernorth blog. Two additional protocol primitives currently in development — a native lending protocol and Smart Escrows combining zero-knowledge proofs with conditional settlement — are expected to complete what Evernorth describes as a full financial system on the ledger, covering treasury management, prime brokerage, and programmatic credit. This development marks a pivotal juncture for XRP in the current market cycle. A 65% surge in on-chain transactions driven by exchanges, stablecoin issuers, and institutional banks settling on the same ledger is the kind of structural demand signal that typically precedes sustained price appreciation in the nascent sector — not because of speculation, but because the infrastructure underpinning real utility is quietly becoming impossible to ignore. Related Reading: Something Shocking Just Happened To The XRP Price, Analysts Are Using It To Make A Bold Prediction As of this writing, XRP trades at around $1.4, consolidating above key support as the institutional buildout that analysts like Evernorth have been tracking continues to compound beneath the price chart. XRP's price sees small losses on the daily chart. Source: XRPUSD on Tradingview Cover image from Grok, XRPUSD Chart from Tradingview

Two prominent crypto analysts have separately flagged what they describe as a significant technical setup for the XRP price, with one pointing to a chart structure he has tracked since October 2023 that continues to map the asset’s price action — and the other capturing an unusual moment that briefly showed XRP trading at over $43,000 on a major price aggregator. Related Reading: Bitcoin Found Support Where Recent Buyers Can’t Afford to Lose: Discover the Mechanics On-chain analyst and technical researcher Dark Defender (@DefendDark) returned to X with an update on a chart he originally published on October 25, 2023, arguing that the structure has remained the only technical framework for XRP that has stayed valid across the intervening period. According to the post, the chart continues to track the XRP price behavior accurately — a claim that carries weight given the asset’s volatile journey across two and a half years of market cycles. XRP's price 2023 fractal remains valid anticipating an explosion in the crypto's value. Source: DarkDefender via X XRP’s Technical Structure Dark Defender’s analysis is built around Elliott Wave theory and Fibonacci extension levels, a framework that maps price action against recurring structural patterns rather than short-term momentum signals. Per his broader body, the analyst has identified key Fibonacci targets above current prices including levels around $2.58 and $3.56, with the correction phase that defined XRP’s recent price action now appearing technically resolved on the weekly chart. The analyst has stated that a directional move is viewed as inevitable as long as the XRP price maintains its critical support structure — a condition the chart currently satisfies. The longer-term targets referenced in his analysis extend considerably higher, with a Wave 5 projection pointing toward $5.85 and extended Fibonacci levels beyond that, according to reporting by BYDFi based on his prior chart work. These remain projections contingent on the broader wave structure holding. The only chart that has stayed valid since 25-Oct-23. Just look at the levels, how well they played. It will continue. Gigantic success for #XRP is on its way. https://t.co/huo84RHclY — Dark Defender (@DefendDark) May 10, 2026  The $43,032 Moment Separately, crypto analyst Steph Is Crypto (@Steph_iscrypto) posted a video on X capturing an unusual data anomaly — the XRP price briefly traded at $43,032.32 on a major cryptocurrency price tracking platform. The currency converter on the same page simultaneously listed XRP’s actual rate at approximately $0.57, confirming the figure as a platform glitch rather than a genuine market event. The incident drew immediate attention across the XRP community. While clearly a data error, it arrived at a moment when technical analysts are already constructing bullish frameworks for the asset — adding an ironic footnote to a week of mounting analyst conviction around XRP’s direction. However, the analyst took the glitch as an expression of future possibilities for the XRP price. The Bigger Picture for the XRP Price XRP currently trades near the $2.11 area, sitting above key support but below the resistance levels that analysts identify as the threshold for a confirmed breakout. The CLARITY Act, currently advancing through the US Senate, remains the most significant near-term regulatory catalyst for the asset — with digital prediction markets pricing the odds of passage in 2026 at over 60%. Related Reading: SUI Surges 40%: Analytics Firm Explains What’s Driving The Rally A clean legislative outcome, combined with the technical structure Dark Defender describes, could prove to be the combination that finally resolves XRP’s prolonged consolidation into something more decisive. XRP price trends sideways on the daily chart. Source: XRPUSD on Tradingview As of this writing, the XRP price trades at around $2.11, holding above critical support as the technical and regulatory setup that analysts have been building toward enters what many in the community consider a pivotal window. Cover image from Grok, XRPUSD Chart from Tradingview

XRP is entering what analyst Will Taylor (@CryptoinsightUK) describes as a rare momentum reset, with technical conditions now lining up around a potential sharp move higher. In the latest edition of The Weekly Insight, Taylor argues that XRP’s recent downturn may have compressed momentum to an unusual degree just as regulatory and ecosystem narratives begin to reappear. XRP Momentum Hits Rare Extreme The core of the setup is XRP’s relative strength index. According to the analyst, previous instances where XRP’s RSI reached oversold territory, or touched the 32 level or lower, have historically marked major lows. This time, the reading fell to around 30, described as the “second lowest RSI reading ever for XRP,” though not quite a full oversold break. Taylor’s main point is not only the level of the RSI, but the speed of the decline. XRP’s RSI reportedly fell from roughly 91 to 30 in a historically short period, a move the analyst frames as evidence that momentum may have swung too far, too quickly. “The market became too bearish too quickly,” Taylor wrote, adding that this is why he sees a likely case for another leg higher. Related Reading: XRP Compression Peaks: Symmetrical Triangle Signals Explosive Move Ahead That view is tied directly to XRP’s current base. The analyst says XRP is now building from around $1.38, compared with roughly $0.38 before its prior explosive move. If XRP were to repeat a similar percentage expansion to the November 2024 rally, when the asset allegedly moved about 500% within weeks, Taylor says that would imply a move toward roughly $6.50. The MACD, in Taylor’s reading, strengthens the same argument. The report describes XRP’s MACD as sitting at its lowest reading on record, suggesting that downside momentum has stretched further than in previous cycles. For Taylor, that creates the conditions for a forceful reversal if momentum turns, especially while price continues to hold above the $1.38 area. The analysis becomes more speculative when Elliott wave theory enters the discussion. The analyst says there is an argument that XRP may be entering wave three of a broader five-wave structure, with a possible target zone between $8 and $12. Taylor cautions that such a scenario is difficult to present without sounding speculative, but argues that major crypto expansions often occur in compressed time windows. Related Reading: David Schwartz Challenges $10,000 XRP Theory With Simple Question The market setup is also being framed against a possible regulatory catalyst. Taylor cites Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal as saying the Clarity Act appears to be moving forward after an agreement with banks, while also pointing to commentary from Eleanor Terrett that market attention has shifted toward the week starting May 11 as a potential markup window. For XRP specifically, that timing matters because Ripple has been vocal about the importance of crypto market structure legislation. The analyst also notes recent criticism from Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson, who has suggested that the Clarity Act is being advanced in a way that could primarily benefit XRP rather than the broader market. Taylor does not fully endorse that view, but says the dispute highlights how significant the bill could become if it advances. At press time, XRP traded at $1.4155. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

XRP ended April with momentum, posting gains of roughly 9.4% over the month. Still, the bigger question for traders is whether the next leg can come faster—and push the altcoin beyond the narrow consolidation zone that has defined much of its recent trading.  According to market expert Sam Daodu, May has unusually strong timing and catalysts stacked together that could lift XRP to price levels not seen since the start of the year, especially if a key piece of US crypto legislation progresses as expected. May Catalyst Watch Daodu points to a current consolidation range for XRP between $1.30 and $1.45, describing it as a ceiling-and-floor setup that has kept the asset trapped while the market waits for clearer catalysts.  One of the earliest catalysts landed on May 1, when Coinbase began Trading At Settlement (TAS) for XRP futures. The activation is intended to support both nano XRP and full-sized XRP futures contracts on Coinbase Derivatives.  While TAS alone may not move XRP in a dramatic way, Daodu suggests the change could matter indirectly by making it simpler for larger US funds to build meaningful XRP positions through regulated venues.  Related Reading: Hyperliquid Jumps Into The Betting Boom With New ‘Outcome Tokens’ For Real-World Events Exchange-traded fund (ETF) momentum then comes into view on May 7, when GraniteShares is scheduled to launch its 3x leveraged XRP ETFs. Leverage products can amplify both upside and downside once traders decide a direction.  In addition, May 15 is also on the calendar: that’s when Jerome Powell exits as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair. Daodu’s view is that rate-cut expectations—which have seemed delayed all year—could finally pick up if the Fed tone changes. The legislative driver is the centerpiece of the May narrative. Daodu highlights that the delayed CLARITY Act faces a hard deadline before the Senate’s Memorial Day recess on May 21.  In his framework, a break above $1.50 depends on whether the bill clears the Senate Banking Committee. Daodu notes that if Chair Tim Scott schedules the markup during the week of May 11 and Republicans keep the committee votes together, the biggest blocker holding XRP back all year could be removed. XRP Price Scenarios For This Month  The upside scenario, in Daodu’s logic, is closely tied to institutional behavior around regulatory clarity. If the CLARITY Act is signed into law, he expects “billions” in fresh ETF inflows, based on the idea that regulatory uncertainty has kept some institutions on the sidelines.  Daodu believes that a potential supply squeeze could help the altcoin break through the $1.45–$1.50 resistance zone and rise to around $1.80. This could result in a 30% rally from current trading prices of $1.39 — a level the token has not reached since January. Related Reading: US Rep. Calls Bitcoin A ‘Geopolitical Weapon Used By Multiple Adversaries’ But Daodu also outlines what happens if the process misses the May 21 deadline. Without CLARITY in the near term, the token could remain stuck following broader market signals more closely—trading less on its own news and more on the direction Bitcoin (BTC) sets. For levels, Daodu starts with the downside line at $1.30, a support area that has held since February. He suggests that a daily close below $1.30 would invalidate the token’s cup-and-handle setup. From there, XRP could slide toward $1.28.  If $1.28 fails, Daodu points to $1.20 as the next major support, describing it as a psychological level that XRP has only reached during broader market sell-offs. Further weakness would put $1.17 in play, and below that, he says $1.00 could become the next major reference point.  Featured image created with OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

XRP is struggling to hold the $1.35 level as the market consolidates in a range that has defined the price structure for weeks without resolving in either direction. The patience required to hold through this kind of sideways action is real — and a CryptoQuant report has just identified a structural condition beneath the surface that reframes what the current consolidation is actually building toward. Related Reading: Bitcoin Large Players Have Built A Sell Wall At $80.5K–$82K – Spoofing Or Structural Supply? The report examines the relationship between XRP’s leverage ratio and its price. What it has found is a divergence that the data describes as inherently unstable. The leverage ratio is sitting low and moving sideways, reflecting a market where speculative positioning has been significantly reduced. Yet the price is holding relatively high despite that absence of leverage support. In most markets, low leverage and resilient price do not coexist for long. The divergence creates a tension that eventually resolves in one direction or the other. The direction the report is pointing toward is not random. When leverage has been flushed out and the price has held through that flush, the market is no longer being driven by speculation. It is being held by something more structural — genuine demand absorbing supply without the amplification of borrowed capital beneath it. That is the groundwork the CryptoQuant report identifies. The next question is what arrives to complete it. The Market Looks Quiet. It Is Loading The CryptoQuant report is explicit about what history says happens next. Divergences between a low leverage ratio and a resilient price do not persist indefinitely — they are inherently unstable configurations that resolve with directional force. The resolution follows one of two paths: the price drops to meet the leverage ratio, closing the gap from above, or the leverage ratio rises sharply to meet the price, closing the gap from below. The second path is the one that produces the kind of move most participants miss because nothing in the price chart announced it was coming. The current setup points toward the second path for a specific reason. Leverage has been flushed out. Speculative excess has been reduced. And yet the price has not collapsed to match the depleted leverage environment. That resilience is the signal — it means genuine demand is absorbing supply without the mechanical support of borrowed capital. When new long-side leverage eventually re-enters a market in that condition, it does not find a fragile price structure propped up by speculation. It finds a base that has already proven it can hold without leverage, which means the additional fuel of returning leverage produces a disproportionate price response. The report’s conclusion is the most important sentence for anyone watching XRP right now. These periods do not end with slow climbs. They tend to produce sudden and powerful price expansions — the kind where the leverage ratio and price close their gap rapidly and simultaneously, creating the squeeze-driven move that the current configuration has been building toward in silence. The market is calm. That is not the same as saying nothing is happening. Related Reading: DeFi Deleveraging Hits AAVE – Analyst Explains Why Borrowing Demand Falls Off A Cliff XRP Holds Range Floor As Downtrend Loses Momentum XRP is trading near $1.37 on the 3-day timeframe, stabilizing after a prolonged downtrend that began following the mid-2025 highs near $3.50. The broader structure still reflects lower highs and sustained selling pressure, but recent price action suggests that downside momentum is weakening as the market establishes a base. The most important development is the formation of a horizontal support zone between $1.25 and $1.35. This area has now been tested multiple times since February and continues to hold. Indicating consistent demand stepping in to absorb selling pressure. Each rejection below this zone has been met with relatively quick recoveries, reinforcing its structural importance. Related Reading: Binance Ethereum Supply Hits 2020 Levels While Staking Locks A Third: Repricing Ahead? However, the moving averages continue to act as overhead resistance. XRP remains below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, all of which are trending downward or flattening. This alignment confirms that the macro trend has not yet shifted, and rallies into the $1.50–$1.70 region are still being sold. Volume also reflects a lack of conviction. The spike during the initial breakdown has not been followed by sustained accumulation, with recent activity showing muted participation. XRP is compressing at range lows. A reclaim of $1.50 is needed to challenge the downtrend. While a break below $1.25 would likely trigger another leg lower. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Veteran trader Peter Brandt has shared a weekly chart and asked traders how deep they think XRP could fall into support. The post matters because Brandt’s chart frames XRP not as a clean momentum breakout, but as a market still trying to prove that its late-2024 range expansion can hold as support. Brandt, posting from @PeterLBrandt account on X, addressed the XRP crowd directly. “Attention all Ripplettes,” he wrote. “How deep into support do you Ripplettes think price could go? XRP. See chart.” What This Means For XRP The chart attached to the post showed XRP/USDT on Binance on a weekly timeframe. Brandt marked out a broad structure that begins with XRP’s long base through 2023 and much of 2024, then the sharp vertical breakout in late 2024, followed by a wide consolidation and eventual pullback. The key level near $1.55 appears to be central to the setup. In technical terms, it’s a former range-reclaim. Related Reading: Pundit Shares The Most Important Thing To Remember About XRP That $1.55 region also explains why Brandt’s chart is uncomfortable for bulls. XRP has already slipped below. Once a market loses a prior range, technicians often look for the next areas where buyers previously absorbed supply. Brandt’s lower horizontal lines seem to map those zones: one near the recent consolidation lows, another around the deeper post-breakout support, and then the broader ascending base that defined XRP’s pre-breakout structure. The poll attached to the post made that support map explicit. Brandt offered four choices: “Bottom is in,” “Support at .93xx,” “Support at .72xx,” and “Slightly above zero.” The $0.93 area appears to come from a descending trendline which originates at the 2021 high. The $0.72 area is deeper. On the weekly chart, it aligns with the ascending trendline of XRP’s old 2023–2024 base and the rising long-term support line that preceded the late-2024 move. In other words, it is not just a random number. It represents a possible full retest of the prior breakout structure. The broader pattern Brandt appears to be highlighting is a failed or stressed range breakout after a large advance. XRP broke out of a long accumulation-style range, rallied aggressively above $3, then formed a wide top-like consolidation with multiple failed attempts to extend higher. Related Reading: XRP Faces Fragile Setup As Whale Selling Meets Retail Buying For XRP bulls, the first answer depends on the $1.55 area. If price can reclaim and hold that level on the weekly timeframe, the chart would look more like a deep retest of a breakout zone than a full structural failure. A reclaim would suggest that buyers are still defending the former range boundary and that the market has not fully surrendered the post-breakout advance. Without that reclaim, however, the lower support levels in Brandt’s poll become more relevant because price would remain below the shelf that previously supported the consolidation. The poll results showed how split traders were on that risk. “Bottom is in” had 27% of the vote, “Support at .72xx” also had 27%, and “Slightly above zero” drew another 27%. The more moderate option, “Support at .93xx,” had 19% and was marked as the selected choice in the screenshot. At press time, the poll had received 364 votes with nearly 12 hours remaining while XRP traded at $1.3941. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto prices have been under pressure recently, and XRP has been hit particularly hard. On Tuesday, the token slid below the key $1.4 level, adding to the broader cautious mood across the market.  Even so, some analysts are pointing to a very different kind of narrative—one grounded in on-chain liquidity data and scenario modeling rather than short-term price forecasts. What The $18,000 XRP Scenario Depends On A researcher highlighted by crypto analyst Bull Winkle has been working with a live valuation tool that pulls real-time metrics directly from the XRP Ledger (XRPL).  The idea behind the tool is straightforward: it collects liquidity-related data on-chain, then runs that information through a set of scenario-based price calculations. Instead of presenting one expected outcome, the model lays out multiple paths, each tied to a specific use case and a defined peak transaction size.  According to Winkle’s post, the tool produces five separate scenarios, each with different assumptions about how XRP could be used and at what scale. Related Reading: Bitmine’s Ethereum Holdings Reach Record 5 Million Tokens–CEO’s Bullish Outlook One of the most eye-catching scenarios places XRP as the dominant global bridge asset. In that case, the model links the valuation to a “peak ticket” of $50 billion. Importantly, this level is not framed as a prediction of what will happen; it is described as a condition that would need to be met.  The model’s central claim is that if XRP reaches the required volume threshold associated with that bridge-asset role, then a price around $18,000 becomes mathematically justified.  Put another way, the scenario isn’t sold as a timeline estimate—it’s presented as a logical outcome that could follow only if that specific scale of usage occurs. Institutional Adoption Is The Key The tool also includes a near-term scenario that, Winkle says, is the most relevant for current conditions. This case centers on small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) and remittance corridors, with a peak ticket of $100 million.  For that scenario, the model calculates a required XRP price of $16. Winkle’s interpretation is that this part of the model is already being “validated” by current price reality—meaning the market dynamics implied by the scenario are not purely hypothetical.  As a result, the near-term row stands out not because it guarantees a particular number, but because it appears to align more closely with what is already happening on the ground. Related Reading: Solana Prepares For The Quantum Era: Foundation Details Step-By-Step Transition Beyond the near-term outlook, the model also includes a mid-scenario focused on corporate treasury and regional bank flows. Here, the tool suggests that the required XRP price could land anywhere between $138 and $690, depending on how the underlying assumptions about institutional-style usage play out.  In Winkle’s framing, this is where institutional adoption starts to carry real price implications. The range is wide, but the direction of the thesis is clear: as liquidity and usage scale up through larger financial channels, the XRP valuation outcomes become dramatically higher. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

In the race to determine whether XRP can mount a real rally toward the $10 level next year, one market expert, Sam Daodu, argues that the answer depends less on hype and more on whether two major forces finally line up.  Daodu says nearly every serious XRP price forecast for 2027 relies on the same prerequisites: US regulation has to be clarified, and institutional capital has to begin flowing in at a meaningful scale. Without both, the upside case becomes harder to justify, even if parts of the story are already moving in the right direction. Mixed Progress For XRP Price  Daodu’s latest report stresses that, at the moment, neither prerequisite is fully in place. He points to continuing regulatory uncertainty as the key blocker for institutions.  In his view, the currently stalled CLARITY Act is the legislation that could change the price dynamics by permanently establishing XRP’s position as a digital commodity—an outcome that, if it materializes, would likely remove a major share of the risk institutions are still pricing in. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is Headed For $40,000: Analyst Reveals The Best Time To Buy BTC That said, the report frames the situation as a “mixed progress” scenario rather than a clear-cut bull market versus bear market. On the positive side, several catalysts connected to a potential rally are already showing up.  Exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, for instance, have reportedly remained positive without a single outflow day since April 9. Daodu treats that steady demand as an important signal that market participation is still present. Beyond ETF flow data, Daodu highlights on-chain activity as another supportive element. According to the report, whales have been withdrawing roughly 7 billion XRP from exchanges since February, and large holders appear to be driving a significant portion of those movements.  Even with these bullish indicators, Daodu argues they aren’t arriving with the speed or scale that the $5–$10 outlook depends on. He emphasizes that institutional money—described as essential to those higher targets—still hasn’t shown up at the level required to match an “instant” re-rating of XRP.  Why The Next 60 Days Are Key To reach above $10, the report argues XRP would need a rare alignment of several events. Daodu says the CLARITY Act would have to pass, ETF inflows would need to scale toward the $4–$8 billion range, and Bitcoin (BTC) would have to lead a wider rally that accelerates demand across the altcoin complex.  In short, pushing XRP toward $10 is not framed as the most likely path; it’s presented as a scenario that requires multiple catalysts to land correctly at the right time. Related Reading: Dogecoin Trap Shows A Major Crash, But How Low Will The Price Go? Daodu concludes with what he believes XRP holders should monitor over the next 60 days: the Senate Banking Committee markup before May 21. In his view, this is a key near-term checkpoint. If the markup clears, the bull case remains intact, and $7 becomes a more realistic anchor price for the market’s expectations.  If, however, the process stalls in May, the report suggests the outcome could be pushed out and possibly delayed until 2027. In that event, regulatory delay could cap XRP’s price at around $3 for much of that year—unless Bitcoin triggers another explosive run.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

XRP has become one of the clearest examples in a widening debate over whether crypto is still in accumulation or already entering distribution. A new market note by Will Taylor from The Weekly Insight argues that altcoins and macro signals are now sending conflicting messages at a critical point in the cycle. The core tension is not limited to XRP. The report frames XRP alongside Ethereum, Cardano and Litecoin as major altcoins that have either failed to produce meaningful new cycle highs or have only marginally exceeded prior peaks. For XRP specifically, the author notes that it has set a new all-time high this cycle, but only by roughly 10% to 20%, leaving open the question of whether the move represents genuine expansion or merely another deviation within a much larger range. “Has something fundamentally changed? Are these altcoins effectively finished and distributing, or are we just in a prolonged period of accumulation?” the report asks. “When you combine that with the momentum indicators on the chart, particularly the RSI, alongside what we have discussed with Bitcoin, it starts to build a broader picture.” Altcoins Like XRP Remain Stuck In The Cycle Debate Taylor argues that previous crypto cycles were marked by long periods of range-bound accumulation followed by relatively short expansion phases. In 2017 and 2020, the strongest upside windows lasted roughly nine months after breakout conditions were established. Related Reading: XRP Ready For Next Bull Run? Here’s How This Analyst Arrived At $13 Target This cycle, however, has been harder to classify. Taylor suggests that ETF-driven demand and pre-halving speculation may have pulled forward part of the usual expansion phase, making the market appear more advanced than it really is. That raises a difficult possibility for XRP and other large-cap altcoins: either they are lagging before a delayed expansion phase, or their inability to produce decisive highs is a warning that distribution is already underway. Taylor acknowledges that the evidence remains unresolved. “Are we accumulating, which would suggest something historically significant could follow, especially in an environment where more money printing becomes necessary? Or are we distributing, which would imply that a larger correction or even a financial shock could push crypto, and especially altcoins, significantly lower?” S&P Divergence Adds Another Layer A major part of the report focuses on the breakdown in correlation between the S&P 500 and total crypto market capitalization. Historically, the two have moved broadly together during risk-on and risk-off phases. But the author says that the relationship has diverged “quite aggressively” over the last 100 to 200 days. Related Reading: The Crash Is Over? XRP Price About To Hit ‘Significant Bottom’ The current divergence has lasted roughly 161 days, placing it within the historical range of similar episodes, which the report estimates at 77 to 203 days. In previous examples, equities led while crypto consolidated or underperformed, before crypto later caught up. The author points to a prior period where crypto closed the gap within 42 days, with Bitcoin or the broader crypto market moving 67%. That setup matters for XRP and altcoins because a renewed crypto catch-up phase could shift capital back into higher-beta assets. But the report also warns that the S&P’s own advance may not be fully confirmed by volume, creating uncertainty over whether equities are giving crypto a bullish lead or a false signal. At press time, XRP traded at $1.41. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

XRP is trading near the top of its month-long consolidation band, with the price stuck between roughly $1.35 and $1.45. With April nearing its end—just six days left until the month closes—will the XRP price break upward before the deadline, or will it slip lower and trigger a faster downside move? Monthly Breakout Or Breakdown? In a fresh technical update shared on social media, analyst Bull Winkle says the next major confirmation for the XRP price will come from how it behaves on the monthly time frame. According to Winkle, bulls need a monthly close above $1.90.  He frames that level as more than just a random resistance area, describing it as a demand-zone “hold” signal and also a reclaim of the 2021 resistance level, now acting as support.  Related Reading: XRP ETFs Post Longest Back-To-Back Gains Of 2026—Key Numbers Inside If the XRP price can clear $1.90 on a monthly close, Winkle argues it would set the stage for retests higher up the chart—specifically opening the door to $2.90 revisits. That bullish scenario includes a significant recovery math. If the XRP price climbs toward $1.90 ahead of April’s close from current trading levels of $1.43, it would represent about a 32% recovery. Additionally, a potential rally of 102% up to the $2.90 area. On the other side, Winkle lays out what would count as a clear breakdown for bears. He says the most decisive bearish signal would be a monthly close below $1.27.  In his view, that would open the path for a faster move toward $1, with the potential for an Elliott Wave C-style correction that could land the XRP price in the broader $0.60 to $0.75 range. That bearish estimate would be severe: it could equate to around a 58% decline from the current trading zone. What The XRP Price Needs Next While those price levels are the headline, Winkle also emphasized momentum context using the relative strength index (RSI) indicator.  He notes that at 47, the monthly RSI is not showing divergence in either direction yet. For him, that means the market has not reached a point where the next move is fully “high conviction” on the monthly setup.  Instead, the RSI needs to do something more decisive—either bouncing strongly above 55 to confirm a bullish phase, or pressing below 40 with a trajectory toward the 30 area, which he describes as a capitulation-type bottom. That brings the focus to the immediate battleground. Winkle’s summary of where the XRP price stands is straightforward: the $1.27 to $1.43 range is where the outcome is likely being decided. Related Reading: Bitcoin Nears $80,000: Two Scenarios That May Decide Q2—Bulls Or Bears? Beyond the chart levels and RSI, Winkle pointed to a separate signal he believes is already strengthening the case for a potential upside leg—something supply-side, rather than purely technical.  In another post, he highlighted that “seven billion XRP just vanished from exchanges,” claiming this exchange outflow matters because when the altcoin sits on exchanges, it represents liquid, sell-side supply that can be sold at any moment.  Once that supply leaves—whether to cold wallets, institutional custody, or longer-term holding structures—he argues the immediate downward pressure for the XRP price can ease. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

XRP has been trying to carry its momentum higher after last week’s rally, but at the moment, it’s running into a familiar ceiling. The token is now hovering at the top of its consolidation band, trading in the roughly $1.3 to $1.4 area, yet buyers have not been able to push it through into a sustained breakout.  Even so, XRP’s daily MACD has flipped bullish for the first time since January, a shift that could signal improving momentum and a potential renewed leg up. According to market expert Sam Daodu, whether this reversal holds will depend on key developments over the next ten days. Several major macro and regulatory milestones will act as the near-term ‘trigger points’.  This Signal Has Big History Daodu notes that on XRP’s daily chart, the MACD line remained below the signal line for most of 2026. Attempts to flip bullish repeatedly failed until now. The difference this time, he says, is that the bullish change has managed to hold rather than reversing immediately. He also points out that when XRP has seen the MACD flip before, it hasn’t been a small event. The last time the same type of bullish signal held, XRP recorded its biggest move in months.  Related Reading: AAVE Price Plummets By 26%: $9 Billion Net Outflows Traced To Kelp DAO Hack Back in early January, the MACD flipped bullish, and the token rallied about 25% in one week. That move culminated in a peak around $2.40 on January 7, which Daodu describes as XRP’s strongest rally of the year at the time—and one that began with the same bullish momentum setup that’s reappearing now. Even with the momentum indicator turning, Daodu argues that XRP still needs two key catalysts to break out cleanly rather than merely oscillating inside the current range.  The first is regulatory progress tied to the CLARITY Act. Specifically, he says the CLARITY Act markup needs to happen before May, because institutional participation often depends on clearer regulatory visibility.  The second catalyst is geopolitical resolution—he expects the ceasefire in the war to be extended beyond April 22. Put together, those developments are important because they could unlock additional institutional demand that has been waiting for clarity. XRP Breakout Watch Daodu projects that if both of those factors fall into place, institutions waiting for regulatory cover could pour another $4 to $8 billion into XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs).  From a price-confirmation perspective, he adds that a daily close above $1.55 would validate the MACD flip and reinforce the idea that the current breakout attempt is more than a temporary spike.  If that confirmation arrives, the upside targets he references will point back towards $1.80. This would represent a 25% rally in the altcoin’s price from the current level of $1.43.  Related Reading: A Stark XRP Price Call: Why One Analyst Says It Could Be Under $1 By 2031 There is, however, a clearer path for the rally to stall. The fastest way for momentum to fade, in his view, is for the ceasefire to expire on April 22 without a new deal.  If fighting resumes, he expects oil prices to climb back above $100, which can quickly pressure risk assets. In that environment, the MACD could flip back to bearish. And if the CLARITY Act also stalls beyond May, he expects that XRP would likely give back the move it has built so far, potentially sliding to $1.30 or lower. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

XRP may be entering a more constructive phase, according to a new thread via X from market analyst Ali Martinez (@alicharts), who argued on April 21 via X that the asset is showing a “structural trend shift from bearish to bullish.” The case rests on a mix of trend-following indicators, whale accumulation, exchange supply dynamics, and a tightening chart structure that could set up a larger move. 4 Signs XRP Is Turning Bullish Ali’s first signal is a change in the macro trend on the daily chart. In the thread, he said the SuperTrend indicator has now issued its first buy signal since January, a notable reversal after months of persistent sell pressure. He wrote: “On the daily chart, the SuperTrend indicator has flashed a buy signal for the first time since January. This flip suggests that selling pressure is waning down, and XRP could be gearing up for a trend reversal.” Related Reading: ‘The Short Version For Why I Hold XRP Through Everything’; Analyst Reveals That call builds on an earlier April 18 post in which Ali framed the signal as a potentially important inflection point. “For the first time since Jan. 17, the SuperTrend indicator has flipped bullish on the daily chart. After months of ‘sell’ pressure, we are officially seeing a buy signal that anticipates a major comeback in XRP’s trend. While the trend has shifted, the real test lies at $1.55,” he wrote. The second sign is positioning from large holders. Ali said on-chain data from Santiment shows whales accumulated roughly 360 million XRP over the past week. If that accumulation continues, it adds weight to the idea that the recent change in trend is being supported by capital rather than by a short-lived bounce. The third sign is the setup forming on lower time frames. Ali said XRP has been compressing into a symmetrical triangle, a structure he argued could foreshadow a 35% move once price breaks out decisively. In his telling, the pattern fits with the broader shift underway: macro conditions are improving, supply is being pulled off exchanges, and price is coiling into a tighter range. Related Reading: Is XRP Gearing Up For A 35% Move? This Pattern May Suggest So “As the macro trend flips and supply is pulled off exchanges, a symmetrical triangle has formed on the lower time frames. This pattern has compressed the price into a tight range, anticipating a 35% move once a breakout occurs,” he writes. The fourth sign is the clarity of the invalidation and breakout levels. He says a daily close above $1.55 would validate the breakout and open the way toward $1.90, describing that resistance as “the key level” that has capped upside recently. At the same time, he said the bullish outlook remains intact only as long as XRP holds the $1.30 support zone. Rather than calling for an immediate breakout, Ali is outlining a market that may be transitioning from defense to offense, with defined levels that would either confirm or weaken the thesis. A bullish SuperTrend flip, whale accumulation, a compressed triangle, and a nearby resistance test do not amount to proof on their own. Together, though, they form a coherent case that XRP may be moving out of a bearish regime and into an early bullish one. At press time, XRP traded at $1.4368. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

XRP is holding above $1.40 as the broader market navigates another uncertain stretch, with buyers and sellers locked in a standoff that has yet to resolve in either direction. The price has recovered to around $1.44, a level that feels more stable than where it was just weeks ago. But an Arab Chain report raises a question the price alone cannot answer — whether real demand is driving the recovery or something considerably more fragile is. Related Reading: XRP Just Settled $291 Million On-Chain, Almost Nothing Hit Binance: Find Out What’s Happening The issue sits in the order flow data. XRP’s Cumulative Volume Delta on Binance is registering approximately -7.18 million, meaning that across the recent trading period, sell orders have been consistently outpacing buy orders in aggregate volume. In markets, that kind of divergence between a rising price and negative order flow tends to mean one of two things. Either sellers are gradually exhausting themselves, and the price is finding its footing naturally, or the price is being propped up by a temporary reduction in selling pressure rather than any genuine surge in demand, and when that pressure returns, the recovery gives way. The distinction matters more than it might appear. A price held up by fewer sellers is a very different setup from a price driven higher by more buyers. One can sustain. The other tends not to. Progress, But Not Confirmation The Arab Chain report offers one genuinely constructive signal alongside the caution. The 30-day correlation between XRP’s price and its order flow has improved to approximately 0.61 — a reading that suggests the two are beginning to move in a more aligned relationship than they have in recent periods. When price and underlying liquidity dynamics start tracking each other more closely, it typically means the market is transitioning out of a disorderly phase and toward something more coherent. That alignment matters because the previous environment — where price moved in one direction while order flow told a contradictory story — is precisely the kind of setup that produces sharp reversals. The improving correlation suggests that the dynamic is gradually resolving, which is a more stable foundation for price action, even if it does not guarantee direction. Price is recovering, and correlation is improving, but sell orders continue to dominate the aggregate flow. The CVD has not flipped positive, and until it does, the recovery lacks the order-flow backing that would make it structurally convincing rather than technically tentative. What the data describes is a market in transition — better than it was, not yet where it needs to be. XRP at $1.44 is holding a level. Whether it builds on that level or retreats from it depends on whether the improving correlation eventually pulls the order flow into alignment with the price, or whether the persistent selling pressure reasserts itself first. Related Reading: Aave Is Trading Like 2022 Again: Danger Zone Or Entry Point? XRP Stabilizes After Prolonged Downtrend XRP is attempting to stabilize around the $1.40 level after an extended downtrend that began following its 2025 peak above $3.00. The chart shows a clear deterioration in structure over the past several months, with price consistently printing lower highs and lower lows, confirming sustained bearish control. The recent price action reflects a shift from decline to consolidation. Since February, XRP has been trading within a relatively tight range between roughly $1.30 and $1.50, indicating a temporary balance between buyers and sellers. This range formation suggests that the aggressive sell pressure seen during the breakdown phase has eased, but it has not been replaced by strong directional demand. Related Reading: XRP Volatility Just Hit A Multi-Year Low – Analysts Explain Something Is About To Change From a trend perspective, XRP remains below the 200-day moving average, which continues to slope downward and act as long-term resistance. The inability to reclaim this level reinforces that the broader trend has not yet reversed. Volume behavior supports this interpretation. After the sharp spike during the capitulation phase, volume has declined steadily, signaling reduced participation and a lack of conviction from both sides. For XRP to shift into a more constructive structure, it would need to break above the $1.50–$1.60 zone and sustain momentum. Until then, the current price action reflects stabilization within a broader bearish trend rather than a confirmed recovery. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

One analyst is arguing that XRP could fall below $1 within five years — a prediction that contrasts sharply with the token’s historical price action during previous bull and bear cycles.  The argument, however, rests on what the analyst says are catalysts that XRP supporters expected to push the price much higher, but which ultimately faded. Catalysts Have Come And Gone Motley Fool analyst Johnny Rice says several of the “big” events that bullish investors pointed to have already come and gone. In his view, those moments briefly lifted sentiment and price, but the token later slipped back toward levels that look closer to where it started rather than sustaining a long-term breakout.  Rice points first to the settlement between the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Ripple Labs, which provided significant clarity for the token. The resolution helped unlock momentum, but Rice says it wasn’t enough to create durable demand. Related Reading: Ethereum Just Saw Its Strongest Buy Pressure Since The 2022 Bear Market He also highlights the launch of spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs). In the early period, this helped drive a surge in interest—Rice notes that total investment hit about $1.6 billion. But he says that initial enthusiasm proved short-lived.  Rice’s assessment also frames XRP’s performance against recent price history. He notes that the altcoin is down more than 60% from its July high of around $3.65.  He adds that the token is also trading well below $2 before the SEC dropped its lawsuit, suggesting that even after the legal overhang was removed, the market did not sustain the kind of upside many bulls had forecast. XRP Outlook Under $1 Rice says one of the central narratives among bulls has been that financial institutions would need XRP to move value across borders. The argument is that banks’ cross-border activity could translate into stronger, ongoing demand for the token if adoption keeps expanding. The logic is that Ripple’s technology converts one currency into XRP—the bridge asset—then converts XRP into the destination currency. In that framework, broader bank adoption should translate into more XRP demand, and, ultimately, higher prices. Rice says that thesis has not clearly materialized in a way that supports the bullish price targets. He argues that even though adoption of Ripple’s payments platform continues to grow, the XRP price hasn’t followed in proportion.  The analyst describes this disconnect as something that has accelerated over the past year, and he explains why demand for cross-border payments may be weaker than many investors assumed. Related Reading: Remember Arbitrum? This Analyst Just Predicted That A 7,400% Rally Is Coming The central issue, in his view, is that Ripple’s stablecoin is “undercutting XRP” demand as the bridge asset. If banks have a more attractive alternative for use in cross-border transfers—specifically Ripple’s own stablecoin, RLUSD—then the “bridge through XRP” demand mechanism becomes less potent.  Rice’s point is not simply that Ripple’s business is doing better or worse, but that the source of real incremental demand for XRP may be eroding as RLUSD offers banks another option for bridging value. The analyst says he believes Ripple is building a thriving payments business and that five years from now it may continue expanding its footprint in the industry.  But his bottom-line forecast remains bearish: he expects XRP to end up below $1, far from the higher price targets often promoted around the idea of XRP becoming the key banking bridge asset. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

XRP has followed the broader rebound in crypto markets as geopolitical conditions appear to be easing. With the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the possibility—however uncertain—of progress toward an end to the Iran–US conflict, risk appetite has improved.  In that environment, XRP has surged and briefly pushed toward the $1.51 level on Friday for the first time in almost a month, alongside a set of catalysts that could determine whether the rally gains real momentum—or quickly unwinds. The Timeline That Could Make Or Break XRP In his latest report, market expert Sam Daodu points out that while the near-term outlook for XRP looks promising, it hinges on three dates coming up in the next two weeks. The first factor is tied to the macro story itself: a possible extension of the Iran–US ceasefire. The closest deadline is April 22, when the Iran ceasefire is set to expire.  Daodu links the timing of this expiry directly to market risk, arguing that if tensions return and the conflict resumes, the broader crypto market would probably fall again—dragging XRP down with it. Related Reading: Could Bitcoin Hit $90,000 And Trigger A New Altcoin Rally? Expert Cites 6 Major Catalysts The second major date is tied to US regulation, and it is arguably the bigger one for XRP’s longer-term recovery: the CLARITY Act markup that the Senate Banking Committee is targeting for late April.  If the CLARITY Act is delayed beyond May, he suggests the bill would likely be shelved until 2027. In that scenario, the expert asserts XRP would lose its biggest remaining catalyst for 2026.  The third key date is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on April 28–29. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to hold interest rates at 3.50%–3.75%.  Daodu argues that, on its own, the meeting may not move XRP much. The bigger issue is what happens if geopolitical risk and regulatory momentum both disappoint at the same time.  If the Iran ceasefire collapses and the CLARITY Act stalls, a hawkish surprise from the Fed would likely worsen conditions. In other words, it is not just each event standing alone; it is the interaction between them that could shape the next phase of the market. Potential Outcomes For The Next Two Weeks Against that backdrop, Daodu offers three price scenarios for XRP, framing them around what happens with the ceasefire, the CLARITY Act, and the broader market over roughly the next two weeks.  In his bullish case, XRP could move into a range of $1.50 to $1.90. That would depend on the Senate Banking Committee scheduling the CLARITY Act markup before the end of April and on the Iran ceasefire being extended beyond April 22.  Daodu believes XRP could aim for the 200-day moving average near $1.90 by May. Still, he cautions that reaching that point would require sustained ETF inflows and continued strength in Bitcoin (BTC). Related Reading: Circle (CRCL) Sued Over $280M Drift Protocol Hack—What Plaintiffs Claim In a base-case outlook, Daodu forecasts XRP trading between $1.35 and $1.50. This scenario assumes the ceasefire extends past April 22, but the CLARITY Act markup is pushed to May.  In the bearish scenario, Daodu sees the altcoin potentially falling into a range of $1.15 to $1.30. This would be triggered if the war resumes after April 22 and oil prices spike above $100 again, which would likely pressure the entire crypto market.  In that case, Daodu says a move back below $1.30 becomes more likely. If Bitcoin also breaks down below $70,000 at the same time, XRP could retest the $1.15 support area.  At the time of writing, the altcoin is trading at around $1.49, still recording major gains of 10% and 13% over the seven- and fourteen-day periods, respectively.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

XRP is holding just above $1.40 as the broader market searches for direction, with buyers and sellers locked in a standoff that has produced little more than sideways price action in recent sessions. The price is not breaking down — but it is not breaking out either. And according to an Arab Chain report, the numbers behind that stillness are telling a story of their own. Related Reading: XRP Whale Flows Hit 2021 Levels: Is History Repeating? The 30-day Realized Volatility Index for XRP on Binance has dropped to approximately 0.42 — its lowest reading since 2024. In practical terms, the price swings that characterized XRP throughout 2025 have largely disappeared. The explosive moves in both directions that defined last year’s market, coinciding with surges in momentum and speculative activity, have given way to something much quieter. That shift did not happen overnight. As 2026 began, volatility started declining steadily, and it has continued falling to the point where XRP is now moving within one of its narrowest ranges in over a year. For traders watching the chart, that calm might feel like the market losing interest. But in crypto, compressed volatility rarely stays compressed. The question is not whether the quiet ends — it almost always does — but whether it ends with a move up or a move down, and what the setup looks like when it does. The Calm Before the Next Move When volatility compresses to multi-year lows, it rarely means the market has lost interest. More often, it means participants are waiting — holding positions, watching for a catalyst, and unwilling to commit capital aggressively in either direction until something gives them a reason to. That is the environment XRP appears to be navigating right now. The Arab Chain analysis describes the current decline in volatility as a reflection of temporary equilibrium between buyers and sellers. Neither side is dominant. There is no sustained pressure driving price lower, but there is equally no surge in demand pushing it meaningfully higher. The result is the narrow, directionless range that has defined XRP’s price action in recent sessions — not a sign of strength or weakness, but a market holding its breath. That kind of consolidation phase is a familiar setup in crypto. It tends to precede larger moves precisely because the compression of volatility is finite. As the range narrows and trading activity thins out, the eventual catalyst — whether it comes from a macro development, a shift in sentiment, or a change in on-chain dynamics — hits a market with less resistance and tends to produce sharper price reactions than it would in a more active environment. XRP at $1.40, moving within a tight band with volatility at a two-year low, is a market in the waiting room. What it is waiting for is the part the data cannot yet answer. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miners Are Choosing To Hold At $74K: Changing The Supply Picture XRP Price Compresses Below Key Averages as Market Awaits Direction XRP’s price structure reflects a prolonged downtrend transitioning into compression rather than immediate recovery. After peaking above $3.00 in mid-2025, the asset established a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows, reinforced by the downward slope of the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages. The sharp selloff in early February 2026, accompanied by a significant spike in volume, marked a capitulation event that reset positioning and forced weaker hands out of the market. Since that flush, price action has stabilized around the $1.30–$1.45 range, forming a tight consolidation base just above recent lows. This range-bound behavior is notable because it occurs beneath all major moving averages, indicating that the broader trend remains bearish despite short-term stability. However, the compression itself suggests a reduction in volatility and a temporary equilibrium between buyers and sellers. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miners Are Choosing To Hold At $74K: Changing The Supply Picture Volume has declined steadily following the February spike, reinforcing the idea that participation has dropped and the market is waiting for a catalyst. The repeated defense of the $1.30 area indicates emerging demand, but the lack of higher highs limits bullish confirmation. Structurally, this is a coiling phase. A break above $1.50 would signal early strength, while a loss of $1.30 would likely resume the broader downtrend. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

XRP is pushing against demand levels as the market finds some relief. The attempt is real. The market it is happening in has not been this thin since 2021 — and that changes what the push actually means. Related Reading: Ethereum Profit-Loss Indicator Is Hovering Just Below Neutral – The Market Waits for A Catalyst An Arab Chain report tracking XRP’s liquidity structure on Binance has identified a condition that reframes the current price action from both directions simultaneously. The liquidity index has fallen to approximately 0.053 — its lowest reading since 2021 — while the 30-day trading volume has contracted to approximately 3.77 billion XRP, one of the lowest levels recorded in recent years. The market is operating with a fraction of the participation that characterized XRP’s most active periods. That thinness is the context that makes the current relief attempt both fragile and potentially powerful. In a liquid market, the push above demand levels requires sustained, deep buying to hold. In a market this thin, the same move requires far less buying to succeed — because there is far less selling available to absorb. The order book that would normally resist a breakout has been depleted to a four-year low. XRP pushing above demand levels in a near-empty market is not the same as pushing above demand levels in a full one. The entry conditions are different. So is the potential outcome. The Price and the Liquidity Are Telling the Same Story. Neither Is Comfortable The Arab Chain analysis connects the liquidity reading to the price action in a way that is more precise than it initially appears. XRP trading near $1.33 with limited price movements is not a coincidence alongside the lowest liquidity reading since 2021 — it is a direct consequence of it. Thin markets produce narrow ranges. When fewer participants are present, and trading volumes are compressed, the forces required to move the price in either direction are reduced — but so is the market’s ability to sustain any move that does begin. The quiet is structural, not accidental. The report identifies this condition as reflective of a specific investor posture: caution combined with anticipation. Holders are not acting. They are watching. The market has reached a state of suspension where the absence of catalysts has produced the absence of activity — and the absence of activity has produced the absence of volatility. Each condition reinforces the others. What the report identifies as the defining characteristic of this phase is its temporary nature. Liquidity at four-year lows does not persist indefinitely. Markets in suspension eventually find a catalyst — macro clarity, a demand surge, a shift in institutional positioning — that breaks the equilibrium and ends the quiet. When that catalyst arrives in a market this thin, the response will not be gradual. The depth that would normally absorb and slow a directional move has been removed. What replaces quiet in a near-empty market is not noise. It is movement — and at current liquidity levels, the scale of that movement will be determined less by the size of the catalyst than by the absence of resistance to it. Related Reading: A Historic Ethereum Signal Just Fired – Discover What Happens Next XRP Pushes Higher Within a Weak Structure XRP is attempting a modest recovery, trading near $1.37 after weeks of compression following the February breakdown. The chart shows a clear transition from aggressive selling into a tight consolidation range between roughly $1.25 and $1.45. This range defines the current structure, with price repeatedly testing the upper boundary but failing to generate follow-through. Despite the recent push, the broader trend remains bearish. XRP continues to trade below the 50-day (blue), 100-day (green), and 200-day (red) moving averages, all trending downward. The 50-day average is now acting as immediate resistance, capping short-term upside attempts and reinforcing the presence of overhead supply. Related Reading: Ethereum Mirrors A 2023 Setup As Buyers Take Control Of Derivatives On Binance Volume dynamics provide important context. The February capitulation event, marked by a sharp spike in volume, suggests forced liquidations that likely cleared weak hands. Since then, volume has declined steadily, indicating reduced participation rather than strong accumulation. Structurally, XRP is showing signs of stabilization but not strength. The repeated inability to break above $1.45 highlights a lack of conviction from buyers. A confirmed shift in momentum would require a sustained move above $1.50, while a break below $1.25 would expose the market to another leg lower. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

A new report released on Monday by market analyst Sam Daodu lays out three potential paths for the XRP price this month, with the deciding factor tied to the US crypto market structure bill known as the CLARITY Act.  Daodu expects the bill to reach some kind of resolution within the remaining two weeks of April, and he argues that how the next few days unfold could determine whether XRP continues consolidating—or breaks out of its current trading zone. Why April Holds The Key According to Daodu, the Banking Committee now has about two weeks to schedule a CLARITY Act vote before midterm politics begins to dominate the Senate calendar. In his view, that matters because it creates a narrow window in which major obstacles have been resolved rather than piling up.  Related Reading: What The Bitcoin Relief Rally Above $71,000 Says About Where The Price Is Headed Within XRP trading, Daodu says the token has largely been stuck between roughly $1.28 and $1.45 for most of 2026. For him, April is the month that could decide whether that range continues for the rest of the year or gives way to a more directional move.  He frames the market’s next step using three scenarios, each tied to events expected to play out during the next two weeks. Three XRP Scenarios For Next Two Weeks In the bullish case, the Banking Committee schedules the markup before May. Daodu argues that even the act of setting a markup date could push XRP higher ahead of any final vote.  If the bill ultimately passes, he suggests XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows could climb by another $4 to $8 billion on top of the approximately $1.2 billion that spot ETFs have already attracted, even before the legislation becomes law.  The first technical test would be the $1.45 resistance level. Daodu notes that around 60% of XRP’s circulating supply was bought at that level, creating a “break-even” wall of holders likely to react. If XRP clears that barrier, he points to $1.60 as the next target. Modest Movement Without Markup Date The base case is more measured: roundtable discussions by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) go well, but the committee does not schedule a markup date. In that outcome, Daodu expects XRP to remain inside the same broad band it has been trading for much of the year.  He does acknowledge that the April 16 roundtable could produce a short-lived lift, but without a concrete markup date, he believes there is no real catalyst strong enough to force a sustained breakout above $1.40.  Under this scenario, he expects XRP to close April in the $1.30–$1.40 range. While that would still represent a positive month compared with March’s $1.33 close, Daodu characterizes it as only a modest improvement rather than a decisive shift. Potential Slide To $1.15 The bear case focuses on what happens if the markup slips beyond May and the market decides the delay has moved past “temporary” and into “failed.” Daodu points to the risk of real-world stress adding pressure during that time.  Related Reading: It’s Too Early For A Bitcoin Price Bottom, Here’s What You Should Be Looking At He highlights that the ceasefire expires on April 22 and that the Islamabad talks already collapsed over the weekend. If tensions escalate again and oil prices climb back above $110, Daodu says XRP could lose the $1.28 support level and potentially slide toward $1.15. At the time of writing, XRP was trading at around $1.33. If this scenario plays out, that would suggest an additional 13% drop for the altcoin. For now, confirmation on this key regulatory matter for the industry remains pending.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

XRP has been moving with the broader crypto market, pushing up to important support levels and climbing to the top of its recent consolidation range near $1.36.  That rebound has reignited bullish speculation around the altcoin, and now one analyst is laying out a much more ambitious scenario—one that, if it unfolds, could translate into a roughly 1,100% rally from current levels. New XRP Price Target At $16.39 In a report published by 24/7 Wall St., market analyst Javon Marks said he has a fresh chart-based target for XRP that sits just under $17. Marks is also the analyst credited with calling XRP’s move from $0.56 to $2.47 in January 2024, months before that rally actually happened.  The new thesis, according to the report, is built around a long-running technical structure: a pennant pattern that began forming in 2017 and later broke out in late 2024.  Related Reading: WLFI Crashes 13% To All-Time Lows Amid Growing Liquidation Fears For World Liberty Financial Marks’ framework starts with the earlier 2017 phase. The report notes that XRP rose from $0.006 to $3.31 in 2017 in one of the largest rallies in its history. After that burst, the token fell sharply and then spent about seven years consolidating inside the pennant structure described by the analyst.  The long wait appears to have ended during the post-election crypto rally: in late 2024, XRP broke out of the pennant, jumping from $0.49 to above $3.60 by mid-2025. From there, Marks says he uses a “measured move” method. This approach takes the size of the original rally that created the pennant setup and projects that distance forward from the later breakout point.  Under that method, the analysis points to $16.39—just under the nearly $17 level that Marks posted on April 8. The report also emphasizes that the measured move is not expected to be a straight line, as pullbacks are part of the pattern. What Would It Take For The Altcoin To Rally 1,000%? XRP, the report says, already moved about 647% from the breakout before retracing back toward the area where it currently trades, around $1.36. Marks argues that this pullback looks more like the “normal” behavior of the pattern rather than evidence that the breakout failed.  The report draws a comparison to what happened in 2017: the altcoin pulled back sharply after the early move, yet still went on to complete the full measured move. If history rhymes again, Marks suggests XRP could complete another leg that delivers roughly 1,100% upside from current pricing. Related Reading: Expert Forecasts Bitcoin Surge To $80,000 Amid US-Iran Ceasefire And Oil Price Drop However, the report makes clear that reaching that kind of price would require major real-world changes, not just chart follow-through. It says that for XRP to reach such a valuation, several things would need to fall into place.  Banks on Ripple’s network would need to start settling using XRP instead of the company’s RLUSD stablecoin and fiat. That shift is described as depending on the long-awaited CLARITY Act passing to provide legal cover for the transition.  On top of that, XRP ETF inflows would need to grow substantially; the report notes that XRP has already attracted about $1.2 billion so far, but reaching $17 would likely require sustained inflows in the “tens of billions” over multiple years, alongside institutional adoption at a scale not yet seen. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

XRP is struggling to hold current support levels. The market is uncertain. And in the final days of March, the largest XRP holders on two of the world’s biggest exchanges made a decision that the price action is not yet reflecting. Related Reading: $11.4 Billion in XRP Has Left Binance. Here Is What Happens When Demand Returns A CryptoQuant report has documented the strongest wave of whale-sized XRP withdrawals since early February. Across two sessions — March 27 and March 30 — large outflows from Binance and Coinbase combined to reach approximately 442 million XRP, worth nearly $592 million at prevailing prices. That figure did not accumulate gradually. It arrived in two concentrated bursts: $298.8 million on March 27 and $293.5 million on March 30, with Coinbase contributing the larger share on both days. The historical context makes the magnitude more meaningful. Following the February 6th spike — when large XRP outflows reached approximately 530 million XRP in a single day — activity had quieted significantly, averaging close to 50 million XRP daily through much of March. The late-March surge represents a return to February-scale behavior after weeks of relative silence. Nearly $600 million in XRP left the two most significant Western exchanges in 48 hours. The coins did not go to other exchanges. They left the sell side entirely — and that changes the supply equation for whatever comes next. Below February’s Peak. Miles Above March’s Average. That Gap Is the Signal The report’s comparative framework is where the late-March data finds its proper weight. The February 6th spike — 530 million XRP in a single day — remains the exceptional reference point of this cycle, a reading that has not been matched since. The late-March wave, at 442 million XRP across two sessions, falls short of that single-day record. But framing it against February’s peak understates its significance. The more relevant comparison is what came immediately after February: a sustained retreat to roughly 50 million XRP per day through much of March. Against that baseline, the late-March readings did not merely recover — they multiplied by nearly nine times the recent daily average across two consecutive sessions. That reacceleration is what the report identifies as the structural signal. Whale-level withdrawal activity does not return to near-February scale after weeks of quiet by accident. When outflows of this magnitude reappear after a subdued stretch, the pattern consistently points to a renewed and deliberate pickup in large-holder movement — participants who had been inactive choosing, simultaneously, to act. The market structure consequence is direct. Nearly $600 million in XRP moved away from immediate sell-side availability in 48 hours. That supply is no longer on the exchange. It cannot be sold from where it now sits. Whether the holders who withdrew it do so in anticipation of a move or simply in preference for custody, the effect on Binance and Coinbase’s available XRP float is the same — and it is meaningful enough to matter for short-term price conditions. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales Are Selling While Corporations Bought 62,000 BTC In Q1 Alone. Here Is What That Split Means XRP Trades Near Support as Multi-Timeframe Weakness Persists On the 3-day timeframe, XRP is consolidating around the $1.30 level after a sustained decline that has eroded its prior bullish structure. The chart shows a clear transition from a mid-2025 expansion phase into a prolonged distribution and breakdown, with price now stabilizing near a critical support zone. XRP is trading below the 50-period and 100-period moving averages, both of which are trending downward and acting as resistance on any recovery attempt. The 200-period moving average, positioned above the current price, reinforces the broader bearish alignment across timeframes. This stacked structure signals that sellers remain in control from short to long-term perspectives. Related Reading: Ethereum Is Flashing a Warning Signal Most Holders Are Ignoring – Here Is What It Says The February breakdown stands out as a decisive event. With a sharp drop accompanied by elevated volume, suggesting aggressive distribution or forced liquidations. Since then, the price has entered a narrower range between approximately $1.15 and $1.50. Indicating a temporary equilibrium but not a confirmed reversal. Recent price action shows repeated failures to sustain moves above $1.40, with lower highs continuing to form within the range. Volume has declined during consolidation, pointing to reduced participation and limited conviction from buyers. As long as XRP remains below its key moving averages, the structure favors continuation or extended consolidation, with the $1.15–$1.20 zone acting as the next critical support if current levels fail. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

XRP began April sitting above the key support level at about $1.30, yet the token remains well below where it opened the year. Historically, however, April has been one of altcoin’s strongest months, and a mix of on-chain data and a potentially decisive legislative event this month could result in a new turnaround.  What Past Aprils Say About This Year’s Odds Market analyst Sam Daodu laid out the historical performance in a new report, noting that since 2014 April has produced an average return of 24.8% for XRP. On that metric, a rally of similar size from the current level near $1.34 would lift the price back above $1.60.  But Daodu cautioned that the headline average masks a different reality: the median April return is only 2%. That gap shows that most Aprils see modest movement while a few outsized rallies push the average much higher.  Related Reading: Expert Finds Prime Bitcoin Buy Zone Below $60,000, Supported By This Vital Indicator Notable “big-April years” include the 2021 post‑Halving surge — when XRP jumped from roughly $0.30 to $1.96 — and the 2017–2018 altcoin runs when April gains topped 50% in some cycles. Remove those extreme years, and April’s typical gain falls to single digits. Daodu singled out April 2025 as the most analogous comparison for 2026. In that month, XRP was already sliding when an announcement of sweeping tariffs pushed prices lower on April 2; XRP fell from about $2.00 to $1.60, and the month closed in the red, derailing the historical pattern.  Yet that $1.60 low proved critical — it became the exact pivot for an 82% surge that carried XRP to $3.65 by mid‑July. Daodu points out that even when April fails to produce immediate gains, it can still be the turning point for the rest of the year. Potential Catalysts And Risks For XRP  This April also presents a new potential catalyst not seen in prior years. The Senate returns from its Easter recess on April 13, and the Senate Banking Committee has indicated a window in the latter half of the month for markup on the CLARITY Act.  If the bill advances through committee, it would formally classify XRP as a digital commodity under federal law — a change that, according to the analyst, could remove a major obstacle to institutional capital entering the market.  On-chain data shows a marked increase in Binance outflows since late February, which could further support a new recovery. Daily withdrawals have repeatedly exceeded 4,000 XRP, with some sessions approaching 6,000 — a behaviour that is often seen as a sign of accumulation.  Related Reading: TAO Rockets 70% — Here’s What Fueled Bittensor Move And The Near‑Term Outlook Still, on‑chain strength and a favorable legislative calendar may be insufficient to overcome macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures.  Oil prices have risen above $100 a barrel, the Federal Reserve has held rates steady, and Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $66,000 — factors that have tended to suppress risk appetite across crypto markets.  Daodu notes that crypto-specific positives this year have repeatedly been overshadowed by broader geopolitical headwinds and inflation data, and warns that an escalation in the Middle East could erase any April gains.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

XRP is struggling to hold $1.35. The market is preparing for further downside. And beneath the price action, a quietly growing group of investors appears to have reached a different conclusion. Related Reading: Binance Inflows Suggest Money Is Starting to Move Back Into Crypto – Find Out What Changed Data published by analyst Darkfost identifies a behavioral divergence that the spot chart does not reflect. Despite one of the most hostile environments for altcoins in recent memory, XRP has maintained a well-defined range between $1.30 and $1.50 for several months — a degree of structural resilience that stands out against a broader altcoin market where more than 40% of assets have reached or approached all-time lows. The price tells one story. The on-chain data tells another. Since the end of February, Binance has recorded a clear resurgence in XRP activity — a pattern that Darkfost identifies as consistent with gradual accumulation rather than distribution. Investors are not selling into this range. A growing number of them are using it. XRP is still trading more than 60% below its last all-time high. That fact is not in dispute. What is in dispute is whether the current price represents a continuation of the decline or the quiet formation of a base that the broader market has not yet recognized. The data is beginning to suggest the latter. The price has not confirmed it yet. The Coins Are Leaving. The Question Is Where They Are Going and Why. Darkfost’s on-chain breakdown gives the accumulation signal its clearest form. Since the end of February, outflow transactions on Binance have surged — multiple days recording more than 4,000 transactions, with single-day peaks approaching 6,000. These are not large institutional movements happening out of sight. They are a high volume of individual withdrawal events, happening repeatedly, in the same direction, over an extended period. The transaction size profile is what makes the signal credible rather than coincidental. The activity is concentrated in the 1,000 to 100,000 XRP range — the bracket that corresponds to mid-sized investors rather than whales executing strategy or institutions rebalancing portfolios. Related Reading: XRP Holders Are Pulling Coins Off Exchanges – History Points To A Strong Move This is retail and semi-institutional capital making a deliberate decision: withdrawing XRP from the exchange, moving it into private custody, and removing it from the available sell-side pool. That behavior, repeated across thousands of transactions, is the definition of a gradual accumulation phase. Darkfost frames the forward question with appropriate precision. The accumulation is real and measurable. Whether it is sufficient to break XRP out of the $1.30–$1.50 range — and reignite a bullish trend that the broader altcoin market has failed to deliver this cycle — depends on whether this quiet buying pressure eventually overwhelms the overhead resistance that has capped every rally attempt since February. The base may be forming. The breakout has not arrived. XRP Holds Key Support as Downtrend Loses Momentum XRP is currently trading around the $1.30–$1.35 range, stabilizing after an extended downtrend that began near the $2.40 region earlier this year. The chart shows a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows, confirming a persistent bearish structure over the past months. However, recent price action suggests a potential shift in momentum. Since the sharp selloff in February, XRP has entered a tight consolidation range, repeatedly finding support near the $1.25–$1.30 zone. This level has now been tested multiple times without a decisive breakdown, indicating that buyers are actively absorbing selling pressure. Related Reading: Crypto Market Open Interest Hits $30 Billion, Highest Since January: Leverage Returns To The Market From a trend perspective, XRP remains below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, all of which are sloping downward. This reinforces that the broader trend is still bearish, and any short-term strength remains corrective rather than structural. Attempts to push higher have been limited. The rejection near the $1.50 level confirms it as a key resistance, capping upside momentum in the current range. Volume patterns add context. The largest spikes occurred during capitulation phases, while recent activity has normalized, suggesting reduced panic selling. Structurally, XRP is compressing. A break above $1.50 would signal recovery, while losing $1.25 could trigger another leg lower. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

XRP is struggling at $1.35. The market is bracing for a volatile week. And quietly, the data on Binance is telling a story the price chart has not yet decided to believe. An Arab Chain report tracking supply dynamics on Binance has identified a reading that stands out against the current bearish backdrop: XRP’s scarcity indicator has reached 0.59 — its highest level since 2024. That number reflects something specific and consequential. The supply of XRP available for immediate sale on the platform is contracting, not expanding. Related Reading: An XRP Key Indicator Just Flipped Bullish — and Most Traders Are Not Watching It Coins are leaving exchanges. Investors are withdrawing to private wallets, locking positions for the long term, and removing liquidity from the market’s most accessible selling venue. The historical context sharpens the significance. This same indicator spent months in deeply negative territory — registering its worst readings during the periods of heaviest selling pressure and peak exchange inflows earlier in the cycle. The move into positive territory, and now toward a multi-year high, represents a behavioral reversal: the sellers who were flooding the market are stepping back, and the holders who are replacing them are not selling. XRP at $1.35 looks fragile. The scarcity data says the floor beneath it is quietly being reinforced. One of them will prove correct first. The Sellers Are Stepping Back. The Question Is Whether Buyers Are Ready to Step Forward Arab Chain’s behavioral read of the scarcity data is where the report becomes most consequential. A scarcity indicator climbing to its highest level since 2024 is not just a supply metric — it is a behavioral fingerprint. It reflects who is currently holding XRP and what they intend to do with it. The answer, according to the data, is that the short-term sellers who dominated earlier in the cycle are being replaced by a different category of participant entirely: long-term holders, accumulating quietly, withdrawing from exchanges, and removing their coins from the available sell-side pool. That shift has a name in market structure analysis. It is called an accumulation phase, and the scarcity index reaching a multi-year high is one of its clearest on-chain signatures. Short-term selling pressure is declining. Investor confidence, at least among those moving coins off exchanges, is increasing. The balance of the market is tilting toward buyers. The report is careful about what comes next. The accumulation thesis holds only if two conditions persist: overall market sentiment continues to improve, and exchange supply continues to contract. If both hold, the setup for a stronger price movement builds gradually but structurally. XRP at $1.35 is the price the market is offering. The scarcity data suggest fewer and fewer participants are willing to sell it there. Related Reading: Crypto Market Open Interest Hits $30 Billion, Highest Since January: Leverage Returns To The Market The XRP Chart Has Not Changed Its Mind. XRP is trading at $1.3510, up 1.75% on the day — a green candle that opened at $1.3279, reached $1.3669, and is holding modest gains into the afternoon session. On any other chart, a 1.75% daily gain would be unremarkable. On this one, it barely registers against the damage accumulated since July. The daily structure is unambiguous and has been for months. XRP peaked near $3.90 in late July 2025 and has traced a textbook descending staircase ever since — lower highs in August, October, January, and March, each rally sold into at a lower level than the one before. The February capitulation wick to $1.15, accompanied by the heaviest sell volume on the entire chart, established the floor the market is currently defending. That defense has held. It has not yet become a foundation. Related Reading: Unknown Wallet Buys $107 Million In Ethereum – Purchase Pattern Points To Bitmine All three moving averages confirm the structural damage. The 50-day MA has crossed below the 100-day MA — a death cross on the intermediate timeframe — and both are accelerating lower toward the $1.60–$1.80 region. The 200-day MA descends from approximately $2.10, so distant from the current price that reclaiming it is a medium-term ambition, not a near-term target. Today’s candle is constructive. The trend surrounding it is not. XRP needs a daily close above $1.45 to begin suggesting the post-capitulation range is building a base rather than forming a continuation pattern toward lower levels. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

The XRP price traded at around $1.30 on Monday as markets consolidated and Bitcoin (BTC) fought to hold above $67,000, but the calm belies meaningful downside risk if BTC revisits its key support at $60,000, according to market analyst Sam Daodu. Key Levels For XRP Price In his latest report, Daodu warns that XRP’s price action tends to amplify Bitcoin moves. He noted that this year the XRP price has behaved with roughly a 1.8-to-1 correlation to BTC’s declines. That means XRP is vulnerable to a steep retracement if BTC loses ground. Related Reading: XRP Nears Key Turning Point As Descending Wedge Tightens On XRP’s outlook, Daodu points to a sequence of support levels that could determine how far losses extend. The immediate floor is at about $1.28, where 443 million XRP have been accumulated by holders who have stepped in on dips.  If that level breaks, buying interest thins, and the next material support is around $1.11 — the low seen in February. Beneath $1.11, Daodu identifies $1.00 as the next notable cushion for the XRP price, with a deeper support cluster near $0.82, which would mean a near 40% decline for the altcoin on top of current losses.  The analyst asserts that once $1.28 gives way, a rapid slide to $1.11 could follow, and if that fails, a drop toward $1.00 or lower would be possible because there are few bids between those levels. What Could Push BTC Back To $60,000 Daodu’s scenario hinges on Bitcoin revisiting $60,000, a test he regards as the most important support for BTC so far this cycle. He cites macro drivers that could pressure Bitcoin, notably the conflict in Iran and elevated oil prices.  “As long as oil stays above $100 and the war keeps escalating, Bitcoin stays under pressure,” he said, framing those geopolitical and commodity dynamics as key determinants of Bitcoin’s near-term path.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Will Do A ‘Big Print’ If This Happens; Pundit Explains There are, however, events that could help decouple the XRP price from Bitcoin’s movements. Daodu highlights two potential catalysts: the passage of the long-anticipated CLARITY Act and renewed inflows into spot crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs).  Passage of the CLARITY Act would, in his view, create a legal framework enabling institutions to use XRP for settlement at scale. Likewise, sustained ETF inflows would produce consistent buying pressure that could support XRP’s price.  At the time of writing, the XRP price was at $1.32, having recorded a 8% weekly loss, according to CoinGecko data.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

XRP is approaching what market commentator Will Taylor describes as a critical technical inflection point, with a tightening descending wedge, oversold weekly momentum and a lopsided liquidation profile all pointing to a market that may be close to exhausting the downside. That is the core XRP takeaway in The Weekly Insight – Week 188, where Taylor argued that while crypto may still face one final flush lower, XRP is already trading in a zone that has historically aligned with major lows. XRP May Be Close To A Bottom Taylor framed the XRP setup against a broader macro backdrop that remains fragile but, in his view, not broken. In the same note, he argued the S&P 500 may still need to complete a deeper correction, volatility could rise further, and crypto altcoins may have “one more small dip” left before a more durable bottom forms. Even so, he suggested the market is already close enough to prior cyclical lows that downside from here may be limited relative to the potential upside. Related Reading: 3 Reasons XRP Rallies Stall — What Must Change For A Sustained Recovery For XRP specifically, the focus was on structure. Taylor said he has been tracking “a potential descending wedge or parallel channel” on the weekly chart, with the key question now being whether XRP still needs “one more pullback into the bottom of that channel” into the $1.10 region or whether it can begin breaking higher from current levels and reclaim support on the way up. He tied that pattern to momentum signals that, in his reading, are starting to look familiar. “This is on the weekly timeframe, and the weekly RSI has been touching the oversold area, just as it did at the absolute lows in 2022 during the bear market,” Taylor wrote. “So there are a few indicators here that are suggesting we are very close to the lows, if not already there.” That matters because Taylor is not presenting XRP as an isolated chart. In the newsletter, he argued the broader crypto market is already trading near levels that, on weekly RSI measures, have historically marked either outright bottoms or zones within roughly 10% to 15% of them. In that context, XRP’s wedge is being read less as a standalone pattern and more as part of a market-wide compression phase that could be nearing resolution. Related Reading: XRP Needs Higher Prices To Handle Bank-Scale Flows, Jake Claver Argues The more distinctive part of the XRP thesis came from liquidation data. Taylor wrote that if XRP were pushed higher toward $3.60, more than $320 million in short positions would be liquidated. By contrast, a move down toward $0.39 would liquidate roughly $130 million in longs. That imbalance, in his view, creates a cleaner incentive to run price upward rather than lower. “And if we pair this up with the amount of liquidity that we can see for XRP, cumulatively, if price is pushed up towards $3.60, we would liquidate over $320 million worth of shorts,” he wrote. “But if price is pushed down towards $0.39, it would only liquidate around $130 million worth of longs. So from a liquidity perspective, the opportunity for market makers and exchanges is clearly to the upside.” That argument leans on the idea that once the current period of macro stress passes, XRP’s positioning could amplify any recovery. Taylor added that open interest is “reinforcing that view,” suggesting leveraged participation has not yet undermined the bullish setup. The caveat is timing. Elsewhere in the newsletter, Taylor said he still expects one more modest dip across crypto before the market fully turns, and he linked the broader bottoming process to macro developments that could play out over the next four to six weeks. For XRP, that leaves two plausible paths: a final sweep toward the lower boundary of the wedge, or an earlier breakout that confirms the pattern without a deeper retest. At press time, XRP traded at $1.35. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

XRP is under selling pressure. Weeks of consolidation below $1.50 have given way to a test of critical support. And quietly, an indicator that most traders are not watching has just flipped in a direction they should care about. Related Reading: Unknown Wallet Buys $107 Million In Ethereum – Purchase Pattern Points To Bitmine An Arab Chain report tracking risk-adjusted performance data on Binance has identified a shift that the price chart is not yet reflecting: XRP’s Sharpe Ratio has moved into positive territory at 0.0267, while the 30-day average return has climbed to 0.00063 — a modest but meaningful reading that marks the first sustained improvement in risk-adjusted returns following months of negative and near-zero readings. These are not large numbers. That is precisely the point. The Sharpe Ratio does not need to be high to be significant — it needs to be moving in the right direction after an extended period of moving in the wrong direction. For XRP, that directional shift is new, it is recent, and it is happening while the price is still under pressure. That divergence — between what the risk-adjusted data is signaling and what the spot market is doing — is where the most important market information tends to live. The price reflects the present. The indicator is measuring something further out. The Indicator Spent Four Months in the Red. March Changed That Arab Chain’s historical read of the data places the current positive reading in its proper context. From October through late December, the Sharpe Ratio remained in negative or near-zero territory — a sustained period in which XRP holders were bearing risk that their returns were not compensating them for. That is not a temporary fluctuation. That is a regime, and it lasted the better part of a quarter. The February capitulation marked the low point of that regime. When XRP’s price collapsed sharply in early February, the indicator registered its most negative reading of the entire period — the moment when risk was highest, and returns were most punishing simultaneously. What followed was not an immediate recovery but a gradual one: the Sharpe Ratio began climbing as price stabilized, and March delivered the decisive shift, with the 30-day average return rising enough to push the indicator into positive territory for the first time since the cycle began deteriorating. Arab Chain frames the forward scenario with appropriate precision. If the Sharpe Ratio continues climbing — if returns improve while volatility stays contained — the data supports a progressively more stable bullish setup. If it reverses into negative territory, the stress regime returns. The indicator has crossed. The price has not followed yet. One of them will move toward the other. Related Reading: $2.3 Billion Ethereum Has Left OKX And Binance This Quarter: The Sell-Side Supply Is Thinning The XRP Support That Was Holding Is Now Being Tested XRP is trading at $1.3365, down 1.79% on the day. The session opened at $1.3608, reached $1.3726, and has sold off to a session low of $1.3340 — a candle that opened, rejected immediately, and has spent the remainder of the day pressing toward levels not seen since the February capitulation floor. Today’s price action is not ambiguous. It is a breakdown attempt. The daily chart context makes today’s move consequential rather than routine. XRP has been in a confirmed downtrend since November 2025, producing a sequence of lower highs without exception — the January rally to $2.40, the post-capitulation bounce to $1.65, the March recovery attempt to $1.55, each one sold into at a lower level than the one before. The structure has not produced a single higher high in five months. Related Reading: Ethereum Staking Ratio Hits Record 31.4% As Exchange Supply Crashes To 2016 Lows All three moving averages are declining in sequence, and the price trades beneath all of them. The 50-day MA has crossed below the 100-day MA, confirming the death cross on the intermediate timeframe. The 200-day MA descends from approximately $2.20, so far above the current price that it offers no near-term reference point. The February capitulation wick to $1.15 is the last meaningful support on this chart. Today’s close at $1.3365 is pressing toward the lower boundary of the post-capitulation range. A daily close below $1.33 puts $1.15 back in play — not as a prediction, but as the next structural level the chart exposes if the current floor gives way. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

XRP may be setting up for a large upside liquidation event even as price action remains fragile in the short term, according to Cryptoinsightuk analyst Will Taylor, who argued in a March 24 video that leverage positioning, funding data, and broader market structure still point to a higher move later in the cycle. Taylor’s core claim is not that XRP has bottomed cleanly or that downside risk has disappeared. It is that the balance of leverage, sentiment, and liquidity remains skewed in a way that could eventually force price higher, particularly if crypto gets a supportive macro or policy catalyst. Bullish XRP Liquidity Builds Above A large part of that thesis rests on liquidation maps. Looking at XRP, Taylor said there is “quite significant liquidity” below current levels in the near term, especially around $1.25 to $1.21. But he stressed that the more important picture appears on the higher-timeframe view, where the density of liquidation liquidity is far greater above the market than below it. Related Reading: XRP Price Will Not Move The Way People Think, Here’s A Better Pattern “Significant upside liquidity,” he said. “Again, look at the difference between the denseness of all this liquidity on the right compared to the left. Now, yes, there’s liquidity down towards a dollar, down towards 94 cent, but all the way up to and even including $3.59, there’s substantial liquidity for XRP.” He then put numbers on that imbalance. On the downside, Taylor pointed to roughly $20 million in short-term liquidity around $1.24. On the upside, he said the map shows around $300 million near $3.38 and another roughly $300 million near $3.60. That contrast, he argued, is one reason he continues to lean bullish despite the market’s weak tone. “It’s so much liquidity to the right-hand side,” Taylor said. “And I think that’s something people need to watch for here.” Taylor tied that setup to derivatives sentiment. He said XRP has already gone through eight consecutive weeks of negative aggregated funding, with the current week potentially becoming a ninth if it were to close negative. According to him, the only comparable stretch came at the 2022 bear-market low. Related Reading: Bitcoin, XRP Rallies Won’t Hold Until Oil Falls Toward $80, Expert Warns “We’ve had eight weeks of negative funding,” he said. “The only other time we’ve had that was here, which was the bottom of the bear market in 2022. So, I do think that people are underestimating sentimentally and structurally where we could be in crypto right now.” Still, Taylor did not present the case as a straight-line breakout. He repeatedly warned that XRP could continue compressing inside what he described as a descending wedge or bull-flag-type structure, and that a deeper flush remains possible before any larger move develops. “It doesn’t mean we have to go up here and break straight out to the upside,” he said. “This is also possible to happen… You could just chill and go down like that. But all this is compression of volatility. And when that compression of volatility gets realized, the moves more if we do that, if we go down to say like $1 by June, the move to the upside will be even more explosive than it would be if we move now.” He floated several possible catalysts, including progress on crypto legislation such as the Clarity Act, broader monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, or some other US policy move that could improve liquidity conditions. “I do think there’s going to be some sort of narrative that comes out that’s going to be quite positive for the markets,” he said. “I think the Clarity Act could be one of the things that we really start to lean on.” At press time, XRP traded at $1.42. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Brent crude slid nearly 12% on Monday to trade around $94, but market expert Sam Daodu warns that oil prices will need to fall further — toward the $85–$80 range — before potential rallies in Bitcoin (BTC) and XRP prices can be sustainable.  According to Daodu, energy prices remain the key link between the ongoing Middle East conflict and crypto market direction, and until they ease, inflation fears and interest-rate concerns will continue to cap risk assets. Bitcoin, XRP Retrace Amid Oil‑Fueled Rate Risks Bitcoin currently sits just above the psychologically important $70,000 level, while XRP is consolidating near $1.44. Both tokens have retraced modestly from last week’s highs, with Bitcoin down roughly 4% and XRP off about 5% on the weekly chart after encountering resistance higher up. Those pullbacks, Daodu says, are tied to the same macro forces that have pushed oil above $100 on repeated escalation headlines since the Strait of Hormuz closures began in late February. Daodu emphasizes that high oil prices sustain inflationary pressure and, crucially, keep the Federal Reserve (Fed) from easing policy.  Related Reading: Analyst Predicts When Bitcoin Price Will Hit $145,000 The Fed’s message on March 19 has pushed out expectations for easier monetary policy. When rate-cut prospects fade, capital rotates away from risk-on assets, and crypto, which still behaves like a high-risk asset, tends to suffer. The expert also highlighted structural reasons crypto markets have appeared particularly sensitive to geopolitical shocks. Because digital-asset markets are open around the clock, they absorb the initial wave of risk sentiment instantly, often before traditional markets open.  That 24/7 liquidity profile can lead to sharper moves in Bitcoin and XRP price following weekend or overnight headlines, as selling is concentrated into thinner markets, as Daodu noted in his report. Brent Near $80–$85 Could Unlock Lasting Gains  Despite these headwinds, Daodu notes there are constructive technical patterns beneath the surface. Bitcoin has formed higher lows on successive sell-offs since late February, suggesting buyers step in during each dip.  XRP, on the other hand, has maintained a roughly $1.35–$1.45 holding zone through recent escalations, reflecting resilience even as rallies fail to hold. Crucially, Daodu argues that oil is the variable most likely to break the current pattern of short-lived crypto rallies. He noted that if Brent retreats toward $80–$85 on signs of a ceasefire or diplomatic progress, inflation pressures should ease and the Fed could regain room to consider rate cuts.  Renewed expectations for easier policy would likely return risk capital to crypto markets and give Bitcoin and XRP the momentum they need to sustain gains.  Conversely, if energy prices remain north of $100, every positive catalyst will be counterbalanced by the same inflation-and-rates dynamic that has dominated price action since February. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miner Selling Pressure Drops To Near Three-Year Low Daodu also reminded that several bullish fundamentals that existed before the conflict have not disappeared: the SEC’s movement toward treating Bitcoin as a commodity, inflows into XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and forward progress on the CLARITY Act.  Those catalysts are still in place but, in his view, are on hold until broader macro conditions — led by a decline in oil — allow risk assets to reassert themselves. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

XRP is pressing up against what analyst EGRAG CRYPTO describes as a pivotal resistance band, with a new chart arguing that the token is entering a decisive technical phase. In the analyst’s framework, the immediate question is whether an ascending triangle forming beneath “Zone 1” can trigger the next leg higher and whether that move could eventually reopen the path toward prior cycle highs. In a post on X, EGRAG framed the setup as “Ascending Triangle vs Zone 1 (Decision Time)” and tied the structure to a potential policy catalyst: the Clarity Act. The five-day XRP/USD chart shows price compressing beneath a blue resistance area around $1.65 to $1.70, while a rising lower trendline suggests buyers have continued stepping in on dips. The core of the thesis is straightforward. According to EGRAG, “The Chart is Saying the following: Ascending Triangle forming under Zone 1 ($1.65–$1.70). Higher lows = buyers stepping in. Resistance flat = liquidity sitting above. This is classic breakout fuel.” XRP’s Possible Path To The ATH That interpretation hinges on a familiar dynamic in market structure. An ascending triangle typically reflects repeated buying interest at progressively higher levels, even as sellers continue defending a fixed ceiling. In EGRAG’s read, that ceiling is Zone 1, and the tightening range beneath it is creating the pressure. Related Reading: XRP Liquidity Builds on Binance – What The 2.78B Reserve Spike Means EGRAG does not present the pattern as a guaranteed breakout. Instead, the post assigns explicit probabilities to both paths. “Break Above Zone 1: ~65%. Structure supports continuation. Momentum building with compression,” the analyst wrote. “Rejection / Fakeout: ~35%. If no catalyst → liquidity sweep first. If the Clarity Act is postponed, rejection becomes the likely scenario.” Notably, the post repeatedly points to the Clarity Act as the narrative catalyst that could “unlock” a break above Zone 1. In other words, the triangle may be storing pressure, but the release still depends on a macro or policy trigger strong enough to force price through overhead supply. Related Reading: XRP Flashes Rare Bottom Signals As Analyst Eyes Breakout Toward $14–$18 Even then, EGRAG argues that clearing Zone 1 would only be the first step. The post asks what it would take for XRP to reach “Zone 2,” marked at roughly $2.60 and above on the chart. The answer is more demanding than a single breakout candle. “Breaking Zone 1 is NOT enough,” EGRAG wrote. “To breach Zone 2 ($2.60+), we need institutional flows / ETF-style exposure, BTC stability or dominance drop, [and] sustained weekly closes above $1.85–$2.00.” For now, the analyst’s summary is more measured than euphoric: “Triangle = Pressure. Zone 1 = Trigger. Zone 2 = Expansion. Catalyst starts the move…..Liquidity finishes it.” That leaves XRP at an inflection point. If buyers can convert the current compression into a clean move through Zone 1, the conversation quickly shifts from pattern recognition to expansion targets. If not, EGRAG’s own framework suggests the market could sweep liquidity lower first, especially if Clarity Act fails to arrive on time. At press time, XRP traded at $1.44. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com