Glassnode’s October 21 report identifies an overhead Bitcoin supply zone around $85,000–$87,500 after bids returned near $80,000. Its levels describe a market structure, not a guaranteed price path.
Glassnode’s proximity framework sets out how nearby inventory and actual buying could confirm support before the Oct. 27–28 Fed meeting.
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Glassnode’s spread crossed zero as downside skew rose, but the figures establish neither higher dollar hedge costs nor an option-selling profit.
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Nic Carter's hypothetical attack highlights why safer signatures would leave an ownership choice for holders unable to migrate or prove prior control.
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The twelve-month forecast sits below Bitcoin's prior record, while fresh Glassnode data leave broad buying participation uncertain.
The post Citi predicts Bitcoin going back to $113,000. Here’s what the buying data shows appeared first on CryptoSlate.
Eight of 13 cash sessions fell from September 21–October 7, 2026, but boundary checks and opposing ETF flows leave sustained institutional selling unproven.
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Glassnode’s October 7 report puts the October 4 share at a one-year high, identifying potential supply during the breakout.
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Glassnode’s weekly snapshot pairs a smaller derivatives footprint with rising holder activity, while spot buying supplies a counterweight.
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Coin Metrics rebuilt ETH Standard flows, but an outflow trading claim still needs the data available at the decision time.
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Glassnode estimated the probability of an additional quarter-point hike at the Oct. 28 meeting fell from 66% on Sept. 28 to 22% by 15:00 UTC on Oct. 2.
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A 2.2% decline from Tuesday’s captured quote would reach Seyffart’s average holder cost estimate; yields and ETF flows will help show what follows.
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Spot and perpetual selling deepened while futures positioning stayed large enough to amplify the next move.
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Coinbase's September workshop shows signature choices and operational migration must advance together across exchanges, wallets and key-management systems.
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The baseline is already hostile. A CPI, central-bank or oil deviation could decide whether Bitcoin breaks its current range.
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Glassnode’s seven-day measure fell to 7 basis points from 16 at August’s peak, while overhead holdings barely moved.
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ETF inflows offer support ahead of the BOJ’s September 17–18 meeting, while futures-led gains leave Bitcoin exposed if demand weakens.
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Glassnode’s September 8 report shows richer calls and easing net spot selling, while stronger ETF inflows complicate the demand picture.
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A live reading is already 18, showing why institutions need more than one decentralization metric.
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VanEck recorded eight active signals on Aug. 12, while comparable clusters trailed Bitcoin’s baseline at 90 and 180 days.
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The S&P 500 reached 7,798.99 while Bitcoin hovered above a cost-basis fault line amid record-low spot activity.
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Glassnode’s latest on-chain work suggests patient buyers are still absorbing Bitcoin despite the market’s weaker price action.
Ethereum supply-in-loss data is back near a historically painful zone, leaving traders watching whether ETH is forming a base or extending capitulation.
Glassnode data shows broad-based buying across retail and whale cohorts, with the Accumulation Trend Score reaching its strongest level of the current drawdown.
Glassnode says Bitcoin’s rebound from the $60,000 area looks more like stabilization than a confirmed trend reversal as capital flows and trading activity remain weak.
Large Bitcoin holders have reportedly moved more than 11,000 BTC off exchanges as traders revisit a seller-exhaustion setup.
As the XRP price attempts to rebound from its recent lows, Glassnode has shared key on-chain metrics pointing to weakening momentum and “intense capitulation.” Related Reading: Bitmine Makes Largest Ethereum Purchase Of 2026 As Tom Lee Dismisses Market Selloff XRP Profit/Loss Ratio Falls To Lowest Levels Since 2024 On Tuesday, market intelligence platform Glassnode revealed that XRP is flashing warning signals, with key on-chain indicators pointing to widespread capitulation and decreasing network activity. In an X post, Glassnode researchers highlighted that the 90-day moving average (MA) of the altcoin’s Realized Profit-to-Loss Ratio has fallen to an area historically associated with deeper downtrends and periods of market capitulation. Notably, the key metric has dropped to 0.38, its lowest level since 2024, meaning that for every dollar of losses realized in the market, only 38 cents in profit are being taken. This marks a significant reversal from the 2025 peak, when the ratio surged to 50, indicating profit-takers outpaced loss-sellers by a factor of 50. That dynamic has now fully inverted, Glassnode affirmed, adding that a ratio this low suggests that most participants moving XRP are exiting their positions at a loss, which is “a hallmark of intense capitulation.” In addition, the blockchain analytics firm pointed out that network activity has declined significantly. According to the data, the 90-day average of total transaction fees paid on the XRP network has fallen from 5,900 XRP in February 2025 to just 500 XRP, representing a 91.5% drop. “A drop of this magnitude is not a fee market adjustment. It reflects a near-total contraction in organic transaction demand on the network since the speculative peak,” Glassnode affirmed. The drop in these indicators suggests investor confidence has weakened, and the market has shifted to reduced speculative appetite with subdued participation. Is XRP’s Bottom Near? Over the past two weeks, XRP’s price has retraced nearly 15%, falling to its lowest levels since November 2024. Amid this performance, analyst ChartNerd noted that the cryptocurrency’s bear markets have historically lasted 400-790 days with 85-96% drops. Currently, the altcoin has only corrected for approximately 350 days, with a 71% retracement from the July highs. However, “the duration and % depth of these bears are diminishing over time; therefore, the territory for marking a historical bottom between now and EOY is fast approaching,” he stated. He also observed that the altcoin closed below its 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) last week, which could also signal that the bottom may be on the horizon. As he explained, during prior cycles, a structural bottom formed between 8 and 29 weeks after the first weekly close below this SMA, suggesting that XRP could begin forming its bottom in the coming months, if history repeats. Meanwhile, market watcher Ali Martinez noted that XRP could be mirroring the same pattern it has repeated since 2018, as it may be approaching its largest buying zone in the last eight years. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Rise May Have Little To Do With The Latest Purchase News “For nearly a decade, every touch of this rising trendline has marked a major turning point, sending XRP back toward the $3 resistance,” the analyst stated, adding that the cryptocurrency is currently approaching this trendline again, with support sitting between the $0.70 and $0.90 levels. If this zone holds, a rally back to $3 becomes “a realistic scenario.” Moreover, if XRP finally breaks above the eight-year resistance, around $3.30, the next macro target may be between $8 and $13, the analyst concluded. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
The lead research analyst at Glassnode has highlighted how the Bitcoin supply clustered at the top levels might have to shift down before a sustained recovery can take shape. Bitcoin Cost Basis Distribution Shows Massive Supply Above $80,000 In a new post on X, Glassnode lead research analyst CryptoVizArt has discussed how the Bitcoin supply is looking from the perspective of the Cost Basis Distribution (CBD). The CBD is an on-chain indicator that tells us about the amount of BTC that was purchased at each of the levels that the cryptocurrency has visited during its history. Below is the chart for the metric shared by CryptoVizArt. Related Reading: Dogecoin Tests Channel Floor Again: Breakdown Or Rebound? As is visible in the graph, there is a decent amount of Bitcoin supply that was purchased at recent price levels. This supply cluster has built up as the asset has consolidated in the region since February. While this cluster isn’t small, it’s still less dense than some other zones. From the chart, it’s apparent that there are regions above $80,000 that host the break-even level of an extreme amount of supply approaching the 495,000 BTC mark. These zones extend up to the top levels from the 2025 bull market. Earlier, the levels near $126,000 used to be even more dense, but as the digital asset sector has gone through this downturn, supply has changed hands at lower levels, weakening these clusters. However, the zones continue to be dominant relative to the clusters below $80,000. “The Cost Basis Distribution heatmap shows a dense supply cluster in the $80k–$126k range, representing coins still held by buyers near cycle highs,” noted the analyst. Naturally, all of these holders are in a notable amount of unrealized loss right now. Generally, underwater investors act as an impediment to price surges as they sell near their break-even. This effect could in part be what capped out the recovery rally in May. CryptoVizArt explained: For a sustained recovery to take shape, this supply needs to gradually migrate into new buyers’ hands at lower cost basis levels. As that wall softens, the overhang pressure eases and demand has room to build conviction. In the past, the process has often taken some time to occur for Bitcoin. “This transition can be achieved through deeper correction and/or bear market continuation,” said the Glassnode researcher. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Back At $63,000 Despite 1.2 Million BTC Absorption It now remains to be seen how the CBD will develop for Bitcoin in the near future, particularly in terms of whether the top buyers finally capitulate to new investors. BTC Price Bitcoin plummeted to $59,000 last week, but the asset opened on Monday with some recovery as its price is now floating around $63,200. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s long-term security model is once again under the spotlight following new data from Glassnode suggesting that the network could face theoretical risks in a future dominated by quantum computing. The report shows that a significant portion of BTC’s circulating supply could be vulnerable in the future if quantum technology advances to the point where it can break current cryptographic protections. Glassnode’s Data Reveals The Scale Of Potential Future Exposure New data from Glassnode, an on-chain data analytics platform, has shed light on a potential long-term change facing Bitcoin’s security model. Crypto trader Evans revealed on X that the analysis estimates that approximately 6.04 million BTC, nearly 30% of the total BTC supply, could theoretically be at risk from future quantum computing threats. Related Reading: More Bitcoin Is Moving Into The Hands Of Long-Term Investors Amid Sideways Price Performance This is because the public keys associated with those coins have already been exposed on-chain. However, what stands out even more is that roughly 4.12 million BTC of the risk is associated with address reuse and outdated custody methods that unnecessarily increase public-key exposure. In addition, the data also indicates that centralized exchanges collectively hold more than 1.6 million BTC in potentially exposed addresses. Comparing Current Volume Collapse To The 2023 Bear Market Bitcoin spot trading volumes have collapsed by approximately 81% since October 2025, pushing market activity back to levels typically associated with bear market conditions. A Verified Author for CryptoQuant, known as Darkfost, has pointed out that to find similarly low participation, one would have to look back to July 2023, highlighting just how sharply spot volumes have declined. Related Reading: Bitcoin LTH Supply Surge Does Not Reflect Real Demand — Here’s Why Despite the broader slowdown, major exchanges like Binance continue to dominate the market with $36.4 billion in trading volume, and recorded $198.6 billion in October 2025. Therefore, volumes are nearly 5 times lower in the current market, representing 81% decline, and Binance is far from an isolated case. Meanwhile, Gate.io has also seen a massive 79.6% drop in volumes, and Bybit is down 66%. This development primarily reflects a macro environment that has been unfavorable for risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. The persistently rising inflationary pressures and the prolonged US-Iran tensions have pushed investors toward preferred commodities and traditional equity indices over crypto markets. According to Darkfost, this dynamic can also be interpreted constructively. The sharp decline in trading activity shows that the selling pressure behind the current retracement is gradually losing momentum. Historically, prolonged periods of weak spot volume have often coincided with the later stages of market corrections, when selling pressure begins to exhaust itself, and speculative excess is flushed from the system. Notably, a similar collapse in trading activity occurred near the end of the 2023 bear market before volatility returned and the bullish trend recovered. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Analysts warn of a range trap as underwater bitcoin buyers build resistance near $79,000 and tensions flare again in the Middle East.
RHODL ratio suggests market conditions resemble cycle corrections rather than late-stage tops, as long-term holders regain dominance.