As XRP slides below $1.60, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted how the current structure is looking similar to that of April 2022. XRP Is Fast Approaching Its Realized Price In a new post on X, Glassnode has talked about where XRP is currently trading with respect to its Realized Price. This on-chain indicator measures the cost basis or acquisition price of the average address on the blockchain. When the spot price of the cryptocurrency is trading above this metric, it means the investors as a whole can be assumed to be in a state of profit. On the other hand, it being below the indicator suggests the majority of the supply is underwater. Related Reading: Bitcoin Death Cross That Last Preceded A 66% Drop Is Back Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the XRP Realized Price over the last several years: As is visible in the above graph, the XRP spot price has been above the Realized Price since 2024, indicating that holders have been enjoying net unrealized gains. The degree of profitability, however, hasn’t been constant in this period. The asset’s price had the largest gap over the metric back in late 2024, owing to a fast bull rally. Then, over the first three quarters of 2025, profitability gradually dropped as tokens changed hands at higher levels, leading to an increase in the Realized Price. The indicator hit a plateau in the last quarter of the year, but the bearish shift in the asset meant that it was now the price’s turn to approach the line, cutting back on average investor profits further. This trend has deepened recently. Following the sector-wide crash during the past week, XRP has come dangerously close to the Realized Price, which now sits at $1.48. “The current market structure is very similar to that of April 2022,” noted the analytics firm. Back then, the asset was transitioning to a bear market and its price fell to the Realized Price. That retest failed, and what followed was a steep move down that eventually led to the cycle low. Given the proximity that the current XRP price has to the indicator, it now remains to be seen whether a retest will occur in the near future and if it would lead to further bearish action like in 2022. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Loss Turns Upward—Early Bear Market Signal? In the scenario that the cryptocurrency’s decline continues, technical support levels pointed out by analyst Ali Martinez may come into play. As displayed in the chart, Martinez has drawn levels based on a parallel channel pattern. “For XRP, resistance sits at $1.86, while support is at $1.38 and $1.02,” noted the analyst. XRP Price At the time of writing, XRP is trading around $1.60, down nearly 15% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Glassnode data shows large bitcoin holders accumulating, while retail remains in distribution.
Bulls kept a collapse from happening this week when Bitcoin found buying interest above the mid-$80,000s. Prices bounced off a key range, and that breathing room has traders watching the market’s plumbing — not just the headline price. Reports note that the path to a lasting recovery is likely to go through improved liquidity, with market watchers pointing to on-chain measures as the real signal to watch. Related Reading: Record Pain: Bitcoin Investors Suffer $4.5B Loss, Most In 3 Years At Center Stage: Market Structure And Liquidity Glassnode and other analysts have flagged a tight snapshot of supply stress: roughly 22% of circulating Bitcoin is sitting below its purchase price, which raises the chance that outsized selling could kick in if support fails. That’s a nontrivial share of coins that could change hands under pressure. Any meaningful transition back toward a strong market rally should be reflected in liquidity-sensitive indicators such as the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (90D-SMA). A sustained rise above ~5 has historically signalled a renewal of liquidity inflows into the market.… https://t.co/ct0FhOLFXh pic.twitter.com/JqbfdlRk2b — glassnode (@glassnode) January 28, 2026 The specific metric now being watched is the realized profit/loss ratio on a 90-day basis. Historical episodes of steady recoveries have tended to line up with this ratio moving above about 5, which many analysts treat as a sign that real money is rotating back into the market. A repeat of that pattern would make rallies more durable; until then, rallies look vulnerable to being trimmed. According to a post shared on X, Glassnode said focus has moved toward liquidity after Bitcoin managed to defend the $80,700 to $83,400 support zone. Reports note that any move toward a lasting rally would need to show up in liquidity-based signals, with close attention on the 90-day moving average of the realized profit and loss ratio. Bitcoin Price Action And Geopolitics Midweek trading left Bitcoin in a cautious band near the high-$80,000s. Geopolitical headlines have been shaking risk appetite, nudging some traders into safer assets and prompting short bursts of volatility. That has kept follow-through buying muted even when prices test higher levels, and it helps explain why some short-term bets are focused on a squeeze toward the low-$90,000s before profit-taking reappears. Flows Into Exchanges Still Low Exchange inflows, a rough barometer of selling pressure, remain subdued. Data shared by market trackers shows monthly BTC inflows to Binance at levels far below the long-term average — only a fraction of what was typical in past years — suggesting many holders are choosing to keep coins off exchanges rather than move them for sale. That reduces immediate downside risk, but it does not prove that buyers will step in en masse. Related Reading: Gold, Silver Steal The Spotlight As Crypto Hype Fades On Social Media: Santiment Futures And The Risk Of A Liquidity Grab Futures markets and options positioning hint at a possible short-term liquidity grab near the low-$90,000s, where stops and leverage cluster and can be pulled into a quick move. Such moves are often violent and brief. They can create the impression of a breakout, only for spot markets to settle back once the extra liquidity is consumed. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
Long-term bitcoin holders are selling at the fastest pace since August as the cryptocurrency's price lags behind broader financial markets.
Bitcoin’s push to $97,600 last week drew a burst of bullish options activity, but Glassnode argues the derivatives tape looked more like short-dated positioning than broad-based conviction. In a Jan. 23 thread, the on-chain analytics firm pointed to a split between front-end call demand and longer-dated risk pricing that stayed anchored in downside protection. “Let’s deep dive into options market behavior during last week’s move to 97.6K, and how options metrics help gauge conviction behind the move,” Glassnode wrote. The core takeaway: upside flow showed up, but it didn’t meaningfully change how the market priced risk further out the curve. What Bitcoin Traders Can Learn From Last Week’s Rally Glassnode first focused on near-term skew. Around mid-January, BTC rose roughly 8% over a few days, and the 1-week 25-delta skew moved sharply toward neutral from “deep put territory.” That kind of front-end shift can look like a market flipping bullish—until you check whether the same repricing is happening in longer expiries. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Selling Off On Quantum Fears? A Reality Check “Careful though,” Glassnode warned. “Near-dated call demand is often misread as directional conviction.” The thread paired that point with flow data: the options volume put/call ratio dropped from 1 to 0.4, signaling a surge in call activity. But, as Glassnode framed it, the question is not whether calls were bought, but how short-dated that demand actually was. The longer-dated picture was notably less enthusiastic. Glassnode said the 1-month 25-delta skew “only moved from 7% to 4% at the low,” staying in put asymmetry even as the 1-week skew fell from 8% to 1%. On the 3-month 25-delta skew, the shift was even smaller (less than 1.5%) and it “stayed firmly in put territory,” continuing to price asymmetric downside. For Glassnode, that divergence matters because it separates “flow” from “risk pricing.” Upside participation can be real, but if the market does not reprice skew across maturities, it suggests traders are not extending that optimism into a higher-conviction, longer-horizon view. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Power Shift: New Whales Now Control The Market The volatility tape reinforced the same message. “Layering in ATM implied volatility, we see vol being sold as price moved higher,” Glassnode wrote. “Gamma sellers monetized the rally. This is not the volatility behavior typically associated with sustained breakouts.” That combination: front-end call demand alongside vol supply can align with tactical positioning rather than a regime change. It can also leave spot moves more vulnerable if follow-through buying does not materialize once short-dated structures roll off. Glassnode closed with a checklist for what a cleaner breakout would look like: “An ideal breakout setup combines spot pressing key levels, skew pointing higher with conviction across maturities, and volatility being bid. Last week’s move didn’t meet those conditions.” For traders watching whether BTC can revisit $97,600, the thread’s implication is straightforward: monitor whether longer-dated skew begins to lift out of put territory and whether implied volatility starts to get bid, not sold, as spot tests key levels again. At press time, BTC traded at $89,297. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Crypto researcher Axel has provided insights into why the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana prices are still crashing. This comes as BTC continues to see a supply overhang, which threatens to put more downward pressure on crypto prices. Why The Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana Prices Are Still Crashing In a research report, Axel noted that anomalous exchange inflows accompanied the BTC breakdown below the $90,000 zone as sellers prepared in advance. The market is also still at risk of further selling pressure as the 1.0 level of the short-term holders’ SOPR is now acting as a resistance rather than support. As such, there is a possibility that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana prices will decline further. Related Reading: Altcoin Season In Q1? Bitcoin, Ethereum Breakdown Maps Out Performance Further commenting on Bitcoin netflows into exchanges, Axel noted that between January 20 and 21, almost 17,000 BTC flowed into exchanges, coinciding with BTC dropping to as low as $87,000, while Ethereum and Solana prices also dropped. The crypto researcher explained that these anomalously high values followed a period of predominantly negative netflow in the first half of this month. In the context of the falling Bitcoin price, Axel stated that such a spike is more likely to reflect supply preparation than neutral transfers. In other words, the breakdown below $90,000 appears to be structural rather than emotional. Meanwhile, Bitcoin netflow returned to neutral levels yesterday, but the accumulated inflow still creates a supply overhang, which could lead to further declines in the prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. Axel noted that a signal of improvement would be if netflow turns negative again amid rising prices, which could indicate that the overhang has cleared. However, with the short-term holders’ 7-day SMA SOPR below 0.996, the crypto researcher suggested that BTC faces increased selling pressure on every recovery as these holders look to sell at breakeven. He added that a reversal trigger could be confirmed if the SOPR breaks above 1.0 from below, with the 7-day SMA holding unity for three to five days to filter out false spikes after the selloff. Why A Break Above $100,000 Looks Unlikely For Now In its latest research report, on-chain analytics platform Glassnode explained that a Bitcoin rally above $100,000 looks unlikely for now as the supply overhang persists. They noted how this overhang supply above $98,000 remains the dominant sell-side force capping short to mid-term rebounds. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Following The 2022 Fractal? Here Was The Previous Outcome Alluding to the Unspent Realized Price Distribution metric, Glassnode noted that the recent BTC rally has partially filled the prior air gap between $93,000 and $98,000, driven by redistribution from top buyers into newer market participants. However, the unresolved supply overhang is expected to likely cap attempts above the $98,400 short-term holders’ cost basis and the $100,000 level. A meaningful and sustained acceleration in demand momentum is said to be required for a clean breakout above $100,000 to occur. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has pointed out in a new report how Bitcoin is facing supply overhang beyond the $98,000 region. Bitcoin Could Find Resistance Beyond $98,000 In its latest weekly report, Glassnode has discussed about how the recent Bitcoin rally stalled near the Realized Price of the short-term holders (STHs). The “Realized Price” is an on-chain metric that tracks the cost basis of the average investor or address on the BTC network. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Whiplash: Mood Sours From Greed To Extreme Fear In Days The STH Realized specifically measures the average acquisition level of traders who purchased within the past 155 days. As the below chart shows, this indicator is located at $98,400 right now. This level is around where the recent recovery run hit an obstacle, potentially due to selling from underwater recent buyers who used the rally to exit near their break-even mark. Glassnode explained: The recent rejection near the Short-Term Holder cost basis at ~$98.4k mirrors the market structure observed in Q1 2022, where repeated failures to reclaim recent buyers’ cost basis prolonged consolidation. The STH Realized Price provides a look at the average break-even level of a broad section of the market. For a more granular look, another indicator called the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) exists. From the chart of the Bitcoin URPD, it’s visible that a notable amount of the STH supply has a cost basis between the current level and $98,000 (colored in blue). This supply represents the tokens that were redistributed by top buyers into newer market participants during the price rally. Not all top buyers sold, however, as it’s apparent in the graph that at levels around and above $100,000, the long-term holder (LTH) supply is becoming a notable force (shaded in red). Coins count under the LTH cohort once they mature past the 155-day age bracket. The fact that LTH supply is building up at these levels suggests some bull market entrants are willing to hold. The analytics firm noted: This unresolved supply overhang remains a persistent source of sell pressure, likely to cap attempts above the $98.4k STH cost basis and the $100k level. A clean breakout would therefore require a meaningful and sustained acceleration in demand momentum. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bottoming Phase Was Driven By Large Entities, Glassnode Data Shows It now remains to be seen how Bitcoin’s upcoming price action would look, particularly in the context that major supply clusters are still sitting underwater. BTC Price Bitcoin has been following a downward trajectory since its rejection from the STH Realized Price as its value is now trading around $89,100. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin's onchain data shows persistent overhead supply and fragile conviction as the market consolidates below $90,000, Glassnode says.
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has pointed out how large entities drove Bitcoin accumulation during the November-December bottoming phase. Large Entities Accumulated BTC, While Smaller Investors Sold In a new post on X, Glassnode has talked about the recent Bitcoin investor behavior. “During the November–December bottoming phase, supply accumulation was primarily driven by larger entities, while smaller cohorts were distributing,” noted Glassnode. To showcase the trend, the analytics firm has cited the Accumulation Trend Score, an on-chain indicator that tells us about whether BTC addresses are accumulating or distributing. The indicator uses two factors to calculate its value: the balance changes happening in the wallets of the investors and the size of the wallets themselves. This means that larger entities have a stronger influence on the metric. Related Reading: Chainlink Drops To $12.50, But Largest Whales Are Accumulating When the value of the Accumulation Trend Score is greater than 0.5, it means large entities (or alternatively, a large number of small entities) are accumulating. The closer is the indicator to 1.0, the stronger is this behavior. On the other hand, the metric being under the threshold implies that distribution is the dominant behavior among investors. The zero level acts as the extreme point for this side of the scale. The Accumulation Trend Score can also be separately calculated for specific Bitcoin segments to get a more granular view of behavior. Below is the chart shared by Glassnode, doing exactly this for the various BTC investor groups. As is visible in the graph, the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score was close to a value of 1.0 for 10,000+ BTC investors during the bottoming period that followed the price crash in November. The investors in this wallet range are often dubbed as “mega whales,” corresponding to the largest of entities on the network. The normal whales, holding coins in the 1,000 to 10,000 BTC range, started accumulating a bit later, as their Accumulation Trend Score turned blue in December. The whales have since maintained net buying, but the mega whales switched to a neutral behavior around mid-December. Interestingly, while the whales have been showing accumulation, the same hasn’t been true for the smaller investor groups. All cohorts carrying less than 1,000 BTC have displayed varying degrees of distribution during the last few weeks, with the 1 to 10 coins group in particular showing a near-perfect selling behavior. Related Reading: Bitcoin IFP Hints At Potential Turnaround: What It Means “This divergence appears to be driven in part by exchange-related wallet reshuffling, and also by large holders buying the dip,” explained the analytics firm. It now remains to be seen how long the distribution from smaller Bitcoin entities will continue. BTC Price Bitcoin has been falling since the week started as its price is now trading around $88,900. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Crypto analyst Dom has commented on the current XRP price action, revealing what the triple tap at $1.80 means for the altcoin. This comes as XRP sheds most of its gains from the start of the year amid the recent crypto market crash. XRP Price Reaches Major Support With Triple Tap At $1.80 In an X post, Dom stated that there is a triple tap in the $1.80 zone, which is the last possible expression of a bottoming structure for the XRP price. The analyst warned that any further moves to the downside are likely to trigger a breakdown for the altcoin. He added that regaining $2.05 is the goal for bulls to put the chart back in a “safe zone.” Related Reading: XRP Bullish Divergence Shows The Next Direction That Price Is Headed In This analyst comes amid the XRP price crash below the psychological $2 level. The altcoin has crashed alongside the broader crypto market, losing most of its yearly gains in the process. This comes on the back of the latest Trump tariffs on eight European nations, which have sparked bearish sentiment in the market. Commenting on the 30% rally for the XRP price earlier in the month, Dom reiterated that it was a weak move. He noted that the order flow analysis showed no strong buyer support and that the push was possible due to low liquidity. On-chain analytics platform Glassnode also recently commented on the current price action, noting that the current market structure for XRP closely resembles that of February 2022. Glassnode stated that investors active over the 1-week to 1-month window are now accumulating below the cost basis of the 6-month to 12-month cohort. They added that as this structure persists, psychological pressure on top buyers continues to build over time. XRP’s Structure Still Intact In an X post, crypto analyst Egrag Crypto stated that the XRP price structure remains intact, with the upper resistance at between $3.40 and $3.60. Meanwhile, the lower support is between $1.85 and $1.95, and the price is currently near the range lows. The analyst also noted that the 21 EMA is sloping down and acting as resistance, with the price still below it, suggesting weak short-term momentum. Related Reading: XRP Price Could Surge Another 30% If This Trend Is Confirmed As for what could happen next, Egrag Crypto predicted a liquidity sweep rather than a confirmed breakdown in the XRP price. He explained that a wick below $1.85 is a normal liquidity behavior within a range. However, a weekly close below this level could signal structural failure and increase cycle risk. Until that happens, Egrag Crypto noted that the XRP price is still ranging, holding structure, not broken, and not in macro failure. He added that his stance remains unchanged as he is still bullish and holding as long as the structure remains valid. At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $1.90, down over 3% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Peakpx, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin has shown early signs of calm, but the mood is fragile. Prices pulled back from a weekend peak and trading has been choppy as investors weigh fresh tariff headlines and slowing growth in parts of Asia. Related Reading: Bitcoin Senses Risk As Trump Balks At Europe With Major Tariffs Spot Market Signals Ease According to Glassnode, spot trading volume has picked up modestly while the net buy–sell imbalance moved above its usual upper band. That shift points to less sell-side pressure, even if demand is still patchy. Reports note that markets are slowly rebuilding after late-2025 profit-taking, with long-term holders less willing to sell every rally. The result is a market that is consolidating rather than breaking down. Derivatives Stress And A Sharp Retest Over the weekend Bitcoin slid by 3.2% from its high, prompting a retest of the $92,000 level that surprised some bulls. That move wiped out about $215 million in leveraged futures longs, a large hit that raised alarms about deeper losses. Source: Glassnode At the same time, weak activity in derivatives markets has flagged a cooling of speculative appetite, which makes it harder for Bitcoin to act as a reliable hedge right now. Nasdaq futures fell after US President Donald Trump announced new tariff proposals aimed at several European countries, and such macro shocks often push traders out of riskier holds. Liquidity Patterns Echo Past Cycles Analysts at Swissblock pointed to a fall in network growth and liquidity that looks similar to conditions seen in 2022. Back then, low liquidity and a pause in growth led to a long consolidation, only for both indicators to surge later and fuel a big price run. Based on reports, the current setup could be the prelude to a similar rebuild if network activity recovers and buy-side momentum strengthens. Network growth has hit lows not seen since 2022, while liquidity continues to drain. Back in 2022, similar network levels triggered a $BTC consolidation phase as network growth began to recover, even while liquidity remained weak and bottoming out. History shows that the… pic.twitter.com/24sC3aoyAD — Swissblock (@swissblock__) January 19, 2026 Institutional Flows And Hedge Narratives Analysts said that ETF flows show institutions buying on pullbacks and that long-term holders are not rushing to sell. Gold has climbed past $4,650, and that safe-haven move, together with softer growth data in China, is nudging some investors to treat Bitcoin as a portfolio hedge rather than a quick trade. A Cautious Outlook Overall, signs point to a slow rebuild rather than a fresh breakout. Buy-side dynamics have improved, but they are not yet strong or broad enough to call a new uptrend. Volatility remains a feature, and geopolitical or policy shocks could push price swings wider. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Fired Up As Saylor Teases ‘Bigger Orange’ After Huge Buy For the time being, the market is steadying while staying watchful — more recovery in liquidity and clearer institutional conviction would be needed to turn this consolidation into a lasting advance. Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
Glassnode says XRP is slipping back into a cost-basis configuration last seen in February 2022, with newer buyers accumulating at levels that leave a prior cohort “top” increasingly underwater, an on-chain setup that can shape sell pressure around key price zones. In a note shared Monday via X, the analytics firm pointed to a rotation in realized prices by age band. “The current market structure for XRP closely resembles February 2022,” Glassnode wrote. It added that “psychological pressure on top buyers builds over time,” framing the current tape as one where patience is being tested rather than rewarded. What This Means For XRP Price The firm’s core observation is that wallets active in the short-term window, roughly the 1-week to 1-month cohort, are accumulating below the cost basis of holders in the 6-month to 12-month band. In practice, that means newer demand is stepping in at prices that are cheaper than what a meaningful slice of mid-term holders paid. Related Reading: XRP Is Doing Something It Hasn’t Done Since 2021: Here’s Why It Matters That relationship matters because cohorts tend to behave differently when price revisits their cost basis. When spot trades below a cohort’s realized price, that cohort is, on average, underwater. If the market rallies back toward that level, some of that supply can become eager to de-risk into breakeven, creating overhead liquidity that can cap upside until it is absorbed. Glassnode’s “Realized Price by Age” chart (7-day moving average) visualizes this dynamic by plotting cohort realized prices against spot. The standout feature is the gap between shorter-term and 6–12 month cost bases during the most recent consolidation, echoing the firm’s February 2022 comparison. With XRP price again trading slightly below the $2 mark, a post by Glassnode from Nov. 24 2025 also comes back into focus. Glassnode quoted this old X post in which it singled out $2 as the level where this cohort stress has been most visible in flows. “The $2.0 level remains a major psychological zone for Ripple holders,” the firm said. “Since early 2025, each retest of $2 saw $0.5B–$1.2B per week in losses,” a reminder that many holders have been exiting at a loss as price revisits that handle. Related Reading: XRP Longs Get Wiped: Binance Leads $5M Liquidation Wave Those realized loss estimates are a key qualifier: they suggest that $2 is not just a chart level, but a behavior level, where spending decisions change and where capitulation (or forced de-risking) can cluster. Notably, in February 2022, XRP put in a sharp round-trip: after slipping to about $0.6034 on Feb. 2, it ripped higher to the month’s peak near $0.8758 on Feb. 8, then rolled over into the back half of the month as macro risk accelerated. Then, XRP was back around $0.70 by Feb. 23–24 (roughly 20% off the Feb. 8 high), before bouncing into month-end near $0.7856 on Feb. 28. The late-month downdraft coincided with the Russia–Ukraine escalation and the Feb. 24 invasion, which hit risk assets broadly and pushed major crypto lower intraday, consistent with the risk-off impulse seen across the entire crypto market. At press time, XRP traded at $1.9294. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
The so-called Fish-to-Shark cohort added 110,000 BTC over the past 30 days, according to Glassnode.
Bitcoin’s early-2026 bounce has pushed back into a familiar problem area: a dense pocket of overhead supply that Glassnode says has repeatedly capped rallies since November. In its latest Week On-chain report, the analytics firm frames the move above $96,000 as constructive on the surface, but still largely dependent on derivatives positioning and liquidity conditions rather than persistent spot accumulation. Glassnode’s central argument is that Bitcoin has rallied straight into a historically significant band of long-term holder (LTH) cost basis, built during April to July 2025 and associated with sustained distribution near cycle highs. The report describes a “dense cluster” spanning roughly $93K to $110K, with rebounds since November repeatedly stalling near the lower boundary. “This region has consistently acted as a transition barrier, separating corrective phases from durable bull regimes,” Glassnode wrote. “With price once again pressing into this overhead supply, the market now faces a familiar test of resilience, where absorbing long-term holder distribution remains a prerequisite for any broader trend reversal.” The firm’s framing is blunt: the market is back at the same sell ceiling, and clearing it requires real absorption, not just price probing. The next level the report highlights is the short-term holder (STH) cost basis at $98.3K, which it treats as a confidence gauge for newer buyers. Sustained trading above it would indicate that recent demand is strong enough to keep late entrants in profit while soaking up overhead supply. On-chain, Glassnode notes long-term holders remain net sellers, with total LTH supply still trending lower. The key change is speed. The report says the rate of decline has “slowed materially” versus the aggressive distribution seen in Q3 and Q4 2025, suggesting profit-taking is continuing but with less intensity. Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Turns ‘Neutral’ For First Time Since October “What follows will depend primarily on the demand side’s ability to absorb this supply, particularly from investors accumulated over Q2 2025,” the report said. “Failure to hold above the True Market Mean at ~$81k, in the long term, would significantly increase the risk of a deeper capitulation phase, reminiscent of the April 2022 to April 2023 period.” It is one of the clearest downside conditionals in the note: if the market loses the long-run mean, the probability distribution shifts toward a more severe unwind. A related signal is the Net Realized Profit and Loss of Long-Term Holders, which Glassnode says reflects a “markedly cooler distribution regime.” Long-term holders are realizing roughly 12.8K BTC per week in net profit, a sharp slowdown from cycle peaks above 100K BTC per week. That moderation does not imply capitulation risk is gone, but it does suggest the heaviest phase of profit-taking has eased. Bitcoin Demand Remains Uneven Off-chain indicators lean more constructive. Glassnode argues institutional balance-sheet flows have “gone through a full reset” after months of heavy outflows across spot ETFs, corporates, and sovereign entities, with net flows stabilizing as sell-side pressure appears exhausted. Spot ETFs are described as the first cohort to turn positive again, re-establishing themselves as the primary marginal buyer. Corporate and sovereign treasury flows, by contrast, are portrayed as sporadic and event-driven rather than consistent. The upshot is a market where balance-sheet demand can help stabilize price, but may not yet function as a sustained growth engine, leaving short-term direction more sensitive to derivatives positioning and liquidity conditions. At the venue level, Glassnode points to improving spot behavior. Binance and aggregate exchange flow measures have shifted back into buy-dominant regimes, and Coinbase, described as a consistent source of sell-side aggression during the consolidation, has “meaningfully slowed its selling activity.” The report calls this a constructive structural shift, while stressing it still falls short of the persistent, aggressive accumulation typically associated with full trend expansions. Related Reading: Bitcoin Futures Flush 31% Of Open Interest As Bottom Thesis Takes Shape The most pointed caution in the report is that the move into the $96K region was “mechanically reinforced” by short liquidations in a relatively thin liquidity environment. Futures turnover remains well below the elevated activity seen across most of 2025, implying it took comparatively little capital to force shorts out and push price through resistance. “This indicates that the breakout occurred in a comparatively light liquidity environment, where modest positioning shifts were able to drive disproportionately large price responses,” Glassnode said. “In practical terms, it did not take significant new capital to force shorts out of the market and lift price through resistance.” The implication is that continuation now depends on whether spot demand and sustained volume can replace forced covering once the squeeze impulse fades. Options markets add a second layer of tension. Glassnode describes implied volatility as low but “deferred,” while skew continues to price downside asymmetry, with 25-delta skew biased toward puts in mid and longer maturities. In short: participants appear comfortable holding exposure, but remain unwilling to do so without insurance. Positioning also matters at the microstructure level. The report flags dealers as short gamma around spot, with a zone roughly from $94K to $104K. In that setup, hedging flows can amplify moves rather than dampen them, buying into rallies and selling into dips, raising the odds of faster travel toward high-interest strikes such as $100K if momentum takes hold. At press time, BTC traded at $96,334. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Crypto expert Plan C has alluded to the business cycle to explain why the Bitcoin top isn’t in despite the flagship crypto’s run to $126,000 last year. This comes as BTC struggles to hold above the psychological $90,000 level, having lost most of its gains from the start of the year. Why The Bitcoin Top Isn’t In Yet Based On The Business Cycle In an X post, Plan C suggested that it doesn’t make sense to call the Bitcoin top when the business cycle hasn’t even crossed 50. The expert noted that BTC bull market peaks have historically occurred when the business cycle reaches between 55 and 65. Notably, the latest ISM PMI data fell to 47.9 in December last year, indicating that the bull market peak hasn’t occurred. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Could Crash Another 20% To $76,000 Soon Plan C was reacting to an X post from BTC analyst Sminston, who also indicated that the Bitcoin top wasn’t yet in. The analyst noted that the ISM PMI was still 47.9, below 50. Based on this, Sminston remarked that the spring was still coiling, with his accompanying chart showing that the BTC price records a parabolic rally once the ISM PMI breaks above 50. The chart also showed that the Bitcoin price could rise well above $100,000 as the ISM PMI targets the 65 level, which could then mark the bull market peak for BTC and the broader crypto market as Plan C suggested. In the meantime, BTC continues to struggle around $90,000, with other macro data painting a mixed picture for the flagship crypto. The latest U.S. jobs data strengthened the case for the Fed to hold rates steady at the January FOMC meeting, which is bearish for the crypto market. BTC Needs To Rebound Above $99,000 To Confirm Recovery According to a Glassnode report, the first meaningful confirmation of Bitcoin’s recovery would be a sustained reclaim of the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $99,100. Glassnode claims this would signal renewed confidence among newer market participants and a shift toward more constructive trend dynamics. Related Reading: Don’t Get Excited For Bitcoin: The Trend Is Still Bearish, Analyst Warns Glassnode further noted that as attention turns to whether the Bitcoin price can reclaim the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, the broader structure is starting to resemble earlier transitional failures. This is similar to the Q1 2022 period, with BTC’s prolonged inability to recover above this level materially increasing the risk of a deeper bearish extension. The on-chain analytics platform added that if the BTC price remains below this threshold, confidence-driven demand may continue to erode. Another on-chain analytics platform, CryptoQuant, warned that large Bitcoin investors are not buying the dip, with a similar rollover said to have occurred between 2021 and 2022, before the BTC price topped. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $90,500, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted how the Bitcoin Funding Rates have increased across the various exchanges, but still not to a high degree. Bitcoin Perps Funding Rates Have Surged In a new post on X, Glassnode has talked about the latest trend in the Bitcoin Funding Rates for the major perpetual futures markets. The “Funding Rate” is an indicator that measures the amount of periodic fees that traders on the futures market are exchanging between each other on a given derivatives platform. Related Reading: Bitcoin Accumulation: Data Shows Institutions Are Net Buyers Again When the value of this metric is positive, it means the long holders are paying a premium to the shorts in order to hold onto their position. Such a trend implies a bullish mentality is dominant in the market. On the other hand, the indicator being below the zero mark suggests the shorts outweigh the longs and a bearish sentiment is shared by the majority of traders on the exchange. Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the 7-day moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin Funding Rate for major exchanges over the last couple of years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Funding Rate has witnessed an increase across these platforms recently, indicating that investors have been setting up fresh bullish positions. The mean Funding Rate for these exchanges dropped to the 0% mark back in November as the cryptocurrency’s price went through a crash. As the asset settled into its consolidation phase, investors gradually set up longs, culminating in the indicator recovering to 0.005%. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miner Capitulation Ends: Hash Ribbons Flash Buy Signal In the last 24 hours, however, the mean Funding Rate has retraced back to 0.003%, implying some investors have closed up their long positions after the latest recovery rally and/or others have set up shorts to bet against the bullish price action. In the past, major rallies have tended to occur alongside notable positive Funding Rates on the different exchanges. According to Glassnode, the threshold has generally lied at 0.001%. Since the mean Funding Rate is still below this level, the analytics firm has noted, “current conditions remain supportive but not yet decisive.” BTC Broke Above $94,000 Before Retracing Down Bitcoin has seen the renewal of bullish momentum recently, with its price recovering as high as $94,700, but the past day has seen a setback for the digital asset as it’s now back at $92,100. Other cryptocurrencies have also been volatile to varying degrees in the past day, which has resulted in liquidations of over $500 million on the derivatives exchanges, as data from CoinGlass shows. Out of these $503 million in liquidations, about $146 million of the positions involved were Bitcoin-related ones. Featured image from Dall-E, CoinGlass.com, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Extreme readings in the ratio between short-term holder supply in profit and short-term holder supply in loss have aligned with the end of bear markets.
Standard Chartered analysts have predicted that the XRP price could surge by around 330%. They also outlined catalysts that could spark this price surge, which would lead to a new all-time high (ATH) for the Ripple-linked token. Standard Chartered Predicts XRP Price Surge To $8 Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoff Hendrick, has predicted that the XRP price could surge to $8 by the end of 2026, which represents an increase of around 330%. This would also mark a new all-time high for the token, with its current ATH at around $3.84. The analyst expects the token to record such growth, as it now has legal clarity following the settlement of the Ripple-SEC lawsuit. Related Reading: This Double Bottom Formation Could Send XRP Soaring To $2.5 Kendrick also expects the XRP price to surge to $8 on the back of regulatory clarity for the U.S. crypto industry and institutional adoption of the token through the XRP ETFs. The Standard Chartered analyst noted how the improving regulatory environment has made it easier for institutions to gain exposure to the token. Meanwhile, Ripple has been able to grow its payment system, which involves XRP, thanks to the regulatory-friendly environment. These XRP ETFs are notably seeing significant demand, which is bullish for the XRP price as it eyes a rally to $8 next year. SoSoValue data shows that these ETFs have yet to record a daily net outflow since the first spot fund launched last month. The XRP ETFs currently boast a net asset of $1.27 billion, which reprersents 1.12% of the token’s market cap. Crypto pundit Unknow noted that these ETFs are absorbing the supply fast, which is why he predicts that a supply shock could happen by early 2026, sending the XRP price higher. The pundit also declared that next year is the inflection point where the altcoin shifts from speculation to global liquidity infrastructure. XRP Is Preparing For a Breakout In an X post, crypto analyst TARA stated that the XRP price is approaching the critical $1.88 level and is in a very tight range, signaling a breakout is coming soon. The analyst noted that XRP needs to hold support at $1.87, even as Bitcoin approaches $88,000. She added that if the altcoin bounces from here and tests $1.88 again, it could break above that resistance and then hold it as support, which TARA noted would be a very bullish sign. In another X post, she revealed that XRP’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) was trying to break to the upside. TARA further remarked that if today’s close is bullish, with a close above $1.88, it could fuel the next wave to $2.30 for the XRP price. A positive for XRP is that Glassnode data shows that XRP on exchanges has dropped to a seven-year low of 1.6 billion tokens, down from 3.76 billion in October. Related Reading: XRP Hasn’t Entered A Bear Market Yet; Analyst Shares Why At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $1.86, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com
While large bitcoin holders accumulate, smaller investors are selling.
Five years of CME futures data shows where bitcoin has, and has not, built meaningful price support.
On-chain analytics platform Glassnode has revealed the number of Bitcoin supply that is currently sitting at a loss. This comes as the BTC price continues to trade below the psychological $90,000 level following its crash, which began last month. Here’s The Amount Of Bitcoin Supply At A Loss In a report, Glassnode revealed that the Bitcoin supply in loss has risen to 6.7 million BTC, marking the highest level of loss-bearing supply observed in this cycle. The analytics platform further noted that this represents 23.7% of the circulating supply, which is currently underwater. 10.2% of this supply is held by long-term holders and 13.5% by short-term holders. Related Reading: The Bearish Structure That Puts Bitcoin Price At $92,550, And Then $82,000 Glassnode stated that this distribution suggests that, much like in prior cycle transitions into deeper bearish regimes, the loss-bearing Bitcoin supply accumulated by recent buyers is gradually maturing into the long-term cohort. Meanwhile, the analytics platform noted that the 6-7 million range, which has been at a loss since mid-November, mirrors early transitional phases of prior cycles, where mounting investor frustration came before a shift toward more bearish conditions and intensified capitulation at lower Bitcoin prices. Notably, the Bitcoin price has dropped to levels last seen in 2024, erasing its year-to-date (YTD) gains. Glassnode stated that this has left behind a dense supply cluster accumulated by top buyers in the $93,000 to $120,000 range. The resulting supply distribution is said to reflect a top-heavy market structure where recovery attempts are capped by heavy overhead sell pressure, especially in the early stages of a bearish phase. Glassnode declared that as long as the Bitcoin price remains below this range and fails to reclaim key thresholds, most notably the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $101,500, the risk of further corrective downside persists. BTC Spot Demand Is Unstable Glassnode revealed that the Bitcoin spot market flows continue to reflect an uneven demand profile across major venues. The Cumulative Volume Delta bias is said to show periodic bursts of buy-side activity, but has failed to develop into sustained accumulation, especially during the recent BTC price pullbacks. Related Reading: Why Is Bitcoin And Ethereum Prices Down Today? BlackRock Deposits Spark Worry The on-chain analytics platform noted that the Coinbase spot CVD remains relatively constructive, indicating steadier participation from US-based investors. On the other hand, Binance and aggregate Bitcoin flows remain choppy and largely directionless. Glassnode stated that these dispersion points point to selective engagement rather than coordinated spot demand. Meanwhile, the platform alluded to recent Bitcoin price declines, which it pointed out have not triggered decisive expansion in positive CVD. Glassnode noted that this suggests dip-buying remains tactical and short-term. In the absence of sustained accumulation across all venues, Bitcoin’s price action continues to rely more on activity in the derivatives market and liquidity conditions rather than organic spot demand. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $86,800, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
A very supportive macro backdrop is being ignored for now, said Bitwise's Andre Dragosch.
Repeated distribution waves from long-term holders highlight how this bitcoin cycle is breaking from historical norms.
Onchain data shows multiple cost basis metrics confirm heavy demand and investor conviction around the $80,000 price level.
Bitcoin’s price action in the past two weeks has opened a new phase of stress among traders, with on-chain data showing realized losses climbing to heights last observed in 2022. Glassnode’s latest Week-On-Chain report shows Bitcoin is trading above an important cost-basis level but is also visibly straining under intensified loss realization, fading demand and weakening liquidity, which has placed short-term investors in a difficult position. Realized Losses Return To Deep Territory According to Glassnode, realized losses among Bitcoin entities have risen massively, and is now almost at the same magnitudes recorded during the deep retracements of the 2022 bear market. Particularly, the Relative Unrealized Loss (30D-SMA) has climbed to 4.4% after nearly two years below 2%. Related Reading: The Current Bitcoin Price Pump Will End In A Crash – Here’s When To Start Selling The escalation in loss realization reflects how the recent drawdown below $90,000 has forced a large number of market participants to offload coins at prices below their acquisition cost. This, in turn, has disrupted the gradual improvement in profitability seen earlier in the year. Bitcoin’s recent bounce from the November 22 low to above $92,000 hasn’t eased the strain on holders. Glassnode noted that entities are still locking in losses at an increasing pace, with the 30-day average of realized losses now at around $555 million per day. These conditions mean that investors are losing confidence in short-term upside prospects for Bitcoin and choose to reduce exposure, even at unfavorable prices. Therefore, the report noted that resolving it will require a renewed wave of liquidity and demand to rebuild confidence. Glassnode also highlights a sharp rise in profit-taking among long-term holders, whose realized gains have climbed to roughly $1 billion per day and briefly set a new record above $1.3 billion. Even with this elevated level of distribution, Bitcoin is currently positioned just above the True Market Mean, which is a long-standing cost-basis benchmark that serves as a point of structural support. The recent price downturn below $90,000 has pushed this zone close to its limits, but the glimpse of demand reflected around it suggests that price could revisit the 0.75 quantile near $95,000 and possibly approach the short-term holder cost basis as well. Spot ETF, Futures, And Options Markets Indicate Weakness Glassnode’s report points to persistent softness across ETF flows, which have cooled notably after a period of strong inflows earlier in the year. This slowdown represents a reduction in one of the largest and most immediate sources of buy-side liquidity for Bitcoin. Related Reading: Why Is The Bitcoin Price Down Again? Analyst Calls Out Trading Desk For Triggering Crashes Spot market liquidity has also faded, with order books on major exchanges near the lower bound of their 30-day range. This has created an environment where trading activity has weakened through November and into December, and fewer liquidity flows are available to absorb volatility or sustain directional moves. Derivatives positioning reflects similar caution, with funding rates pinned near neutral. Futures open interest has also been subdued and has failed to meaningfully rebuild since the breakdown below $90,000. Across all major venues, the tone is the same: liquidity is lighter, sentiment is softening, and participants are leaning defensive rather than pursuing short-term rallies. The attention is now on how Bitcoin will respond in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
The Solana network has seen its validator count crash by more than 68% over the past three years, falling from thousands of active nodes to just around 800. The massive decline in validators has sparked discussions about whether this could become a threat to the blockchain network or a natural pruning of inactive nodes to increase efficiency. Solana loses 68% Of Its Validators In 3 Years A new report from Criptonocias reveals that Solana has experienced a dramatic decline in the number of its validators, active and non-active, since March 2023. This decrease has raised concerns across the crypto community about the network’s overall health and security. Related Reading: Why Has The Solana Price Been Crashing Since October? This Major SOL Player Is Selling Over the last three years, the Solana network has steadily lost validators, going from 2,500 to 2,100 in November 2022 and now hovering around 800. This decline means the blockchain has lost a total of 1,700 validators. Although this considerable decrease should trigger warning alerts, it could be a result of ledger pruning, which involves removing inactive or redundant nodes to streamline a network and improve its performance without compromising security. Notably, validators are crucial for the operation of a blockchain network, as they run nodes, confirm transactions, and help maintain the integrity of the system. Each validator adds to the diversity of the network and reduces the risk of any single entity gaining excessive control. According to the report, some voices in the Solana ecosystem see the reduction of validators in a positive light. They argue that losing “Sybil validators,” which are nodes pretending to be multiple independent operators but are actually controlled by a single party, can be beneficial. Based on this perspective, having a smaller number of reliable and active validators is healthier than maintaining thousands of nodes that do not contribute meaningfully to the blockchain network. Criptonocias revealed that teams such as Layer 33, which develops infrastructure node tools and provides network services for Solana, point out that many of the validators leaving the blockchain are not Sybils but legitimate node operators. This suggests that the drop in numbers does not automatically equate to improved network quality despite widespread talks about ledge pruning. Notably, the potential impact on the Solana network, whether negative or positive, depends on the independence of the remaining validators and the distribution of power among them. An updated report of the validator count reveals that it has dropped again from 800 to 795. Solana Faces Liquidity Crunch As Profitability Declines Amidst its decline in validators, the Solana network is showing signs of strain as liquidity dries up and profitability declines. On-chain data from Glassnode highlights a troubling trend in the network’s trading activity, with the 30-day average realized profit-to-loss ratio remaining below 1 since mid-November. Related Reading: Solana Welcomes Bearish December, But Pundit Shares Possible Move To $170 This level is typically associated with bear market conditions and points to a growing imbalance between gains and losses among traders. A ratio below 1 also indicates that traders are realizing losses more frequently than profits, underscoring the cryptocurrency’s weakening market sentiment. Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview.com
Glassnode’s senior researcher has pointed out how Bitcoin perpetual futures market is looking like a “ghost town,” with Open Interest continuing to be at muted levels. Bitcoin Futures Open Interest Has Remained Low Since October Reset In a new post on X, Glassnode senior researcher CryptoVizArt.₿ has talked about the recent trend in the Bitcoin Open Interest for the perpetual futures market. The “Open Interest” refers to an indicator that measures the total amount of positions related to the asset that are currently open on all centralized derivatives platforms. Related Reading: This 11.7 Billion Dogecoin Wall Could Be Key Resistance For DOGE, Analyst Says When the value of the metric rises, it means the investors are opening new positions related to the asset. Generally, new positions come with fresh leverage for the sector, so the cryptocurrency’s price can become more volatile following an increase in the Open Interest. On the other hand, the indicator going down suggests the perpetual futures traders are either closing up position of their own volition or getting forcibly liquidated by their platform. Such a trend can lead to more stable price action for BTC due to the clearing of leverage. Now, here is the chart shared by CryptoVizArt.₿ that shows the trend in the Bitcoin perpetual futures Open Interest (BTC-denominated) over the last few months: As displayed in the above graph, the BTC-denominated Bitcoin perpetual futures Open Interest saw a sharp plunge back in October as a result of the crash in the cryptocurrency’s price. Following the leverage flush, the indicator traveled sideways around its lows, but in mid-November, speculation noted an uptick as the asset’s drawdown continued, with the metric’s value peaking alongside the level that has so far acted as the bottom. Since this high, however, the indicator has cooled off once again and approached the same lows as the ones that followed the massive liquidation event in October. Thus, with Open Interest back under 310,000 BTC, it seems speculative interest in the market has once again become muted. The recent decline in speculative participation has come alongside a drop in the perpetual futures Funding Rate, a metric tracking the amount of periodic fee being exchanged between the short and long investors. From the chart, it’s visible that the Bitcoin perpetual futures Funding Rate has been going down since a while now. “This persistent drift lower reflects a decline in leveraged long conviction, with traders unwilling to pay a premium to maintain upside exposure,” noted the Glassnode researcher. Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Structure Echoes 2022 Bear Start, Glassnode Warns Based on the recent developments, CryptoVizArt.₿ has called the perpetual futures market a “ghost town.” BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $90,500, up almost 6% over the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Long-term holder supply bottomed when bitcoin sank to $80K, signaling that the wave of spot-driven selling may be nearing exhaustion as prices rebound to $90K.
As the gap between spot bitcoin price and the power law widens, investors are left questioning whether mean reversion is coming or if another cornerstone model is approaching its end.
The Bitcoin market continues to experience high levels of investor uncertainty, as indicated by the unstable price action of the past week. In the last month alone, the leading cryptocurrency has lost about 14% of its value, strengthening fears of an impending bear market. Notably, renowned market expert Ali Martinez has shared some insight on this speculation, highlighting a key technical development that historically precedes an extended downtrend. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run Set To Last Until 2027, Analysts Highlight Influential Factors Bitcoin Winter Phase To Start Only When Price Loses 730-Day SMA – Analyst In an X post on Friday, Martinez presents an on-chain analysis that identifies a key price zone for determining Bitcoin’s price trajectory amid current market volatility. Using data from the Bitcoin Investor Tool metric from Glassnode, the analyst has discovered that extended downtrends in Bitcoin often start once the price falls below its 730-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), a level currently sitting at $82,150. For context, the chart below shows that the 730-day SMA (green), an important long-term indicator, has historically acted as a structural support level during major market cycles. When Bitcoin decisively loses this line, momentum tends to shift, leading to deeper corrections and lengthier bearish periods as seen between 2015-2016, 2019, and 2022-2023. However, the chart also presents some bullish insights. Larger cyclical metrics, including the 730-day SMA × 5 band (pink) sitting at $410,771, remain well above the current price, indicating that macro overvaluation is not yet a concern, as the leading cryptocurrency remains far from an overheated zone. According to Ali Martinez, as long as Bitcoin holds above $82,150, the potential for any prolonged downtrend synonymous with a bear market remains minimal, ensuring the bull structure remains intact. Related Reading: Bitcoin Adoption Is Just Getting Started — 200x Growth Possible, Tom Lee Says Bitcoin Weekly Net Outflows Hit $800M As Accumulation Rises In other developments, on-chain analytics firm Sentora reports that the Bitcoin market recorded an $805 million increase in weekly exchange net outflows, indicating that a significant portion of market investors are unfazed by the recent price correction. Instead, they are opting to transfer more of their investment off crypto exchanges, suggesting an intention to hold in anticipation of future price appreciation. Meanwhile, total Bitcoin network fees reached $1.96 million, representing a 7.69% gain from the previous week and indicating an increase in transactions and network activity during this period. At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $89,693 following a 2.71% price decline in the last 24 hours. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from Tradingview