Crypto expert Plan C has alluded to the business cycle to explain why the Bitcoin top isn’t in despite the flagship crypto’s run to $126,000 last year. This comes as BTC struggles to hold above the psychological $90,000 level, having lost most of its gains from the start of the year. Why The Bitcoin Top Isn’t In Yet Based On The Business Cycle In an X post, Plan C suggested that it doesn’t make sense to call the Bitcoin top when the business cycle hasn’t even crossed 50. The expert noted that BTC bull market peaks have historically occurred when the business cycle reaches between 55 and 65. Notably, the latest ISM PMI data fell to 47.9 in December last year, indicating that the bull market peak hasn’t occurred. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Could Crash Another 20% To $76,000 Soon Plan C was reacting to an X post from BTC analyst Sminston, who also indicated that the Bitcoin top wasn’t yet in. The analyst noted that the ISM PMI was still 47.9, below 50. Based on this, Sminston remarked that the spring was still coiling, with his accompanying chart showing that the BTC price records a parabolic rally once the ISM PMI breaks above 50. The chart also showed that the Bitcoin price could rise well above $100,000 as the ISM PMI targets the 65 level, which could then mark the bull market peak for BTC and the broader crypto market as Plan C suggested. In the meantime, BTC continues to struggle around $90,000, with other macro data painting a mixed picture for the flagship crypto. The latest U.S. jobs data strengthened the case for the Fed to hold rates steady at the January FOMC meeting, which is bearish for the crypto market. BTC Needs To Rebound Above $99,000 To Confirm Recovery According to a Glassnode report, the first meaningful confirmation of Bitcoin’s recovery would be a sustained reclaim of the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $99,100. Glassnode claims this would signal renewed confidence among newer market participants and a shift toward more constructive trend dynamics. Related Reading: Don’t Get Excited For Bitcoin: The Trend Is Still Bearish, Analyst Warns Glassnode further noted that as attention turns to whether the Bitcoin price can reclaim the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, the broader structure is starting to resemble earlier transitional failures. This is similar to the Q1 2022 period, with BTC’s prolonged inability to recover above this level materially increasing the risk of a deeper bearish extension. The on-chain analytics platform added that if the BTC price remains below this threshold, confidence-driven demand may continue to erode. Another on-chain analytics platform, CryptoQuant, warned that large Bitcoin investors are not buying the dip, with a similar rollover said to have occurred between 2021 and 2022, before the BTC price topped. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $90,500, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted how the Bitcoin Funding Rates have increased across the various exchanges, but still not to a high degree. Bitcoin Perps Funding Rates Have Surged In a new post on X, Glassnode has talked about the latest trend in the Bitcoin Funding Rates for the major perpetual futures markets. The “Funding Rate” is an indicator that measures the amount of periodic fees that traders on the futures market are exchanging between each other on a given derivatives platform. Related Reading: Bitcoin Accumulation: Data Shows Institutions Are Net Buyers Again When the value of this metric is positive, it means the long holders are paying a premium to the shorts in order to hold onto their position. Such a trend implies a bullish mentality is dominant in the market. On the other hand, the indicator being below the zero mark suggests the shorts outweigh the longs and a bearish sentiment is shared by the majority of traders on the exchange. Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the 7-day moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin Funding Rate for major exchanges over the last couple of years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Funding Rate has witnessed an increase across these platforms recently, indicating that investors have been setting up fresh bullish positions. The mean Funding Rate for these exchanges dropped to the 0% mark back in November as the cryptocurrency’s price went through a crash. As the asset settled into its consolidation phase, investors gradually set up longs, culminating in the indicator recovering to 0.005%. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miner Capitulation Ends: Hash Ribbons Flash Buy Signal In the last 24 hours, however, the mean Funding Rate has retraced back to 0.003%, implying some investors have closed up their long positions after the latest recovery rally and/or others have set up shorts to bet against the bullish price action. In the past, major rallies have tended to occur alongside notable positive Funding Rates on the different exchanges. According to Glassnode, the threshold has generally lied at 0.001%. Since the mean Funding Rate is still below this level, the analytics firm has noted, “current conditions remain supportive but not yet decisive.” BTC Broke Above $94,000 Before Retracing Down Bitcoin has seen the renewal of bullish momentum recently, with its price recovering as high as $94,700, but the past day has seen a setback for the digital asset as it’s now back at $92,100. Other cryptocurrencies have also been volatile to varying degrees in the past day, which has resulted in liquidations of over $500 million on the derivatives exchanges, as data from CoinGlass shows. Out of these $503 million in liquidations, about $146 million of the positions involved were Bitcoin-related ones. Featured image from Dall-E, CoinGlass.com, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Extreme readings in the ratio between short-term holder supply in profit and short-term holder supply in loss have aligned with the end of bear markets.
Standard Chartered analysts have predicted that the XRP price could surge by around 330%. They also outlined catalysts that could spark this price surge, which would lead to a new all-time high (ATH) for the Ripple-linked token. Standard Chartered Predicts XRP Price Surge To $8 Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoff Hendrick, has predicted that the XRP price could surge to $8 by the end of 2026, which represents an increase of around 330%. This would also mark a new all-time high for the token, with its current ATH at around $3.84. The analyst expects the token to record such growth, as it now has legal clarity following the settlement of the Ripple-SEC lawsuit. Related Reading: This Double Bottom Formation Could Send XRP Soaring To $2.5 Kendrick also expects the XRP price to surge to $8 on the back of regulatory clarity for the U.S. crypto industry and institutional adoption of the token through the XRP ETFs. The Standard Chartered analyst noted how the improving regulatory environment has made it easier for institutions to gain exposure to the token. Meanwhile, Ripple has been able to grow its payment system, which involves XRP, thanks to the regulatory-friendly environment. These XRP ETFs are notably seeing significant demand, which is bullish for the XRP price as it eyes a rally to $8 next year. SoSoValue data shows that these ETFs have yet to record a daily net outflow since the first spot fund launched last month. The XRP ETFs currently boast a net asset of $1.27 billion, which reprersents 1.12% of the token’s market cap. Crypto pundit Unknow noted that these ETFs are absorbing the supply fast, which is why he predicts that a supply shock could happen by early 2026, sending the XRP price higher. The pundit also declared that next year is the inflection point where the altcoin shifts from speculation to global liquidity infrastructure. XRP Is Preparing For a Breakout In an X post, crypto analyst TARA stated that the XRP price is approaching the critical $1.88 level and is in a very tight range, signaling a breakout is coming soon. The analyst noted that XRP needs to hold support at $1.87, even as Bitcoin approaches $88,000. She added that if the altcoin bounces from here and tests $1.88 again, it could break above that resistance and then hold it as support, which TARA noted would be a very bullish sign. In another X post, she revealed that XRP’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) was trying to break to the upside. TARA further remarked that if today’s close is bullish, with a close above $1.88, it could fuel the next wave to $2.30 for the XRP price. A positive for XRP is that Glassnode data shows that XRP on exchanges has dropped to a seven-year low of 1.6 billion tokens, down from 3.76 billion in October. Related Reading: XRP Hasn’t Entered A Bear Market Yet; Analyst Shares Why At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $1.86, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com
While large bitcoin holders accumulate, smaller investors are selling.
Five years of CME futures data shows where bitcoin has, and has not, built meaningful price support.
On-chain analytics platform Glassnode has revealed the number of Bitcoin supply that is currently sitting at a loss. This comes as the BTC price continues to trade below the psychological $90,000 level following its crash, which began last month. Here’s The Amount Of Bitcoin Supply At A Loss In a report, Glassnode revealed that the Bitcoin supply in loss has risen to 6.7 million BTC, marking the highest level of loss-bearing supply observed in this cycle. The analytics platform further noted that this represents 23.7% of the circulating supply, which is currently underwater. 10.2% of this supply is held by long-term holders and 13.5% by short-term holders. Related Reading: The Bearish Structure That Puts Bitcoin Price At $92,550, And Then $82,000 Glassnode stated that this distribution suggests that, much like in prior cycle transitions into deeper bearish regimes, the loss-bearing Bitcoin supply accumulated by recent buyers is gradually maturing into the long-term cohort. Meanwhile, the analytics platform noted that the 6-7 million range, which has been at a loss since mid-November, mirrors early transitional phases of prior cycles, where mounting investor frustration came before a shift toward more bearish conditions and intensified capitulation at lower Bitcoin prices. Notably, the Bitcoin price has dropped to levels last seen in 2024, erasing its year-to-date (YTD) gains. Glassnode stated that this has left behind a dense supply cluster accumulated by top buyers in the $93,000 to $120,000 range. The resulting supply distribution is said to reflect a top-heavy market structure where recovery attempts are capped by heavy overhead sell pressure, especially in the early stages of a bearish phase. Glassnode declared that as long as the Bitcoin price remains below this range and fails to reclaim key thresholds, most notably the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $101,500, the risk of further corrective downside persists. BTC Spot Demand Is Unstable Glassnode revealed that the Bitcoin spot market flows continue to reflect an uneven demand profile across major venues. The Cumulative Volume Delta bias is said to show periodic bursts of buy-side activity, but has failed to develop into sustained accumulation, especially during the recent BTC price pullbacks. Related Reading: Why Is Bitcoin And Ethereum Prices Down Today? BlackRock Deposits Spark Worry The on-chain analytics platform noted that the Coinbase spot CVD remains relatively constructive, indicating steadier participation from US-based investors. On the other hand, Binance and aggregate Bitcoin flows remain choppy and largely directionless. Glassnode stated that these dispersion points point to selective engagement rather than coordinated spot demand. Meanwhile, the platform alluded to recent Bitcoin price declines, which it pointed out have not triggered decisive expansion in positive CVD. Glassnode noted that this suggests dip-buying remains tactical and short-term. In the absence of sustained accumulation across all venues, Bitcoin’s price action continues to rely more on activity in the derivatives market and liquidity conditions rather than organic spot demand. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $86,800, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
A very supportive macro backdrop is being ignored for now, said Bitwise's Andre Dragosch.
Repeated distribution waves from long-term holders highlight how this bitcoin cycle is breaking from historical norms.
Onchain data shows multiple cost basis metrics confirm heavy demand and investor conviction around the $80,000 price level.
Bitcoin’s price action in the past two weeks has opened a new phase of stress among traders, with on-chain data showing realized losses climbing to heights last observed in 2022. Glassnode’s latest Week-On-Chain report shows Bitcoin is trading above an important cost-basis level but is also visibly straining under intensified loss realization, fading demand and weakening liquidity, which has placed short-term investors in a difficult position. Realized Losses Return To Deep Territory According to Glassnode, realized losses among Bitcoin entities have risen massively, and is now almost at the same magnitudes recorded during the deep retracements of the 2022 bear market. Particularly, the Relative Unrealized Loss (30D-SMA) has climbed to 4.4% after nearly two years below 2%. Related Reading: The Current Bitcoin Price Pump Will End In A Crash – Here’s When To Start Selling The escalation in loss realization reflects how the recent drawdown below $90,000 has forced a large number of market participants to offload coins at prices below their acquisition cost. This, in turn, has disrupted the gradual improvement in profitability seen earlier in the year. Bitcoin’s recent bounce from the November 22 low to above $92,000 hasn’t eased the strain on holders. Glassnode noted that entities are still locking in losses at an increasing pace, with the 30-day average of realized losses now at around $555 million per day. These conditions mean that investors are losing confidence in short-term upside prospects for Bitcoin and choose to reduce exposure, even at unfavorable prices. Therefore, the report noted that resolving it will require a renewed wave of liquidity and demand to rebuild confidence. Glassnode also highlights a sharp rise in profit-taking among long-term holders, whose realized gains have climbed to roughly $1 billion per day and briefly set a new record above $1.3 billion. Even with this elevated level of distribution, Bitcoin is currently positioned just above the True Market Mean, which is a long-standing cost-basis benchmark that serves as a point of structural support. The recent price downturn below $90,000 has pushed this zone close to its limits, but the glimpse of demand reflected around it suggests that price could revisit the 0.75 quantile near $95,000 and possibly approach the short-term holder cost basis as well. Spot ETF, Futures, And Options Markets Indicate Weakness Glassnode’s report points to persistent softness across ETF flows, which have cooled notably after a period of strong inflows earlier in the year. This slowdown represents a reduction in one of the largest and most immediate sources of buy-side liquidity for Bitcoin. Related Reading: Why Is The Bitcoin Price Down Again? Analyst Calls Out Trading Desk For Triggering Crashes Spot market liquidity has also faded, with order books on major exchanges near the lower bound of their 30-day range. This has created an environment where trading activity has weakened through November and into December, and fewer liquidity flows are available to absorb volatility or sustain directional moves. Derivatives positioning reflects similar caution, with funding rates pinned near neutral. Futures open interest has also been subdued and has failed to meaningfully rebuild since the breakdown below $90,000. Across all major venues, the tone is the same: liquidity is lighter, sentiment is softening, and participants are leaning defensive rather than pursuing short-term rallies. The attention is now on how Bitcoin will respond in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
The Solana network has seen its validator count crash by more than 68% over the past three years, falling from thousands of active nodes to just around 800. The massive decline in validators has sparked discussions about whether this could become a threat to the blockchain network or a natural pruning of inactive nodes to increase efficiency. Solana loses 68% Of Its Validators In 3 Years A new report from Criptonocias reveals that Solana has experienced a dramatic decline in the number of its validators, active and non-active, since March 2023. This decrease has raised concerns across the crypto community about the network’s overall health and security. Related Reading: Why Has The Solana Price Been Crashing Since October? This Major SOL Player Is Selling Over the last three years, the Solana network has steadily lost validators, going from 2,500 to 2,100 in November 2022 and now hovering around 800. This decline means the blockchain has lost a total of 1,700 validators. Although this considerable decrease should trigger warning alerts, it could be a result of ledger pruning, which involves removing inactive or redundant nodes to streamline a network and improve its performance without compromising security. Notably, validators are crucial for the operation of a blockchain network, as they run nodes, confirm transactions, and help maintain the integrity of the system. Each validator adds to the diversity of the network and reduces the risk of any single entity gaining excessive control. According to the report, some voices in the Solana ecosystem see the reduction of validators in a positive light. They argue that losing “Sybil validators,” which are nodes pretending to be multiple independent operators but are actually controlled by a single party, can be beneficial. Based on this perspective, having a smaller number of reliable and active validators is healthier than maintaining thousands of nodes that do not contribute meaningfully to the blockchain network. Criptonocias revealed that teams such as Layer 33, which develops infrastructure node tools and provides network services for Solana, point out that many of the validators leaving the blockchain are not Sybils but legitimate node operators. This suggests that the drop in numbers does not automatically equate to improved network quality despite widespread talks about ledge pruning. Notably, the potential impact on the Solana network, whether negative or positive, depends on the independence of the remaining validators and the distribution of power among them. An updated report of the validator count reveals that it has dropped again from 800 to 795. Solana Faces Liquidity Crunch As Profitability Declines Amidst its decline in validators, the Solana network is showing signs of strain as liquidity dries up and profitability declines. On-chain data from Glassnode highlights a troubling trend in the network’s trading activity, with the 30-day average realized profit-to-loss ratio remaining below 1 since mid-November. Related Reading: Solana Welcomes Bearish December, But Pundit Shares Possible Move To $170 This level is typically associated with bear market conditions and points to a growing imbalance between gains and losses among traders. A ratio below 1 also indicates that traders are realizing losses more frequently than profits, underscoring the cryptocurrency’s weakening market sentiment. Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview.com
Glassnode’s senior researcher has pointed out how Bitcoin perpetual futures market is looking like a “ghost town,” with Open Interest continuing to be at muted levels. Bitcoin Futures Open Interest Has Remained Low Since October Reset In a new post on X, Glassnode senior researcher CryptoVizArt.₿ has talked about the recent trend in the Bitcoin Open Interest for the perpetual futures market. The “Open Interest” refers to an indicator that measures the total amount of positions related to the asset that are currently open on all centralized derivatives platforms. Related Reading: This 11.7 Billion Dogecoin Wall Could Be Key Resistance For DOGE, Analyst Says When the value of the metric rises, it means the investors are opening new positions related to the asset. Generally, new positions come with fresh leverage for the sector, so the cryptocurrency’s price can become more volatile following an increase in the Open Interest. On the other hand, the indicator going down suggests the perpetual futures traders are either closing up position of their own volition or getting forcibly liquidated by their platform. Such a trend can lead to more stable price action for BTC due to the clearing of leverage. Now, here is the chart shared by CryptoVizArt.₿ that shows the trend in the Bitcoin perpetual futures Open Interest (BTC-denominated) over the last few months: As displayed in the above graph, the BTC-denominated Bitcoin perpetual futures Open Interest saw a sharp plunge back in October as a result of the crash in the cryptocurrency’s price. Following the leverage flush, the indicator traveled sideways around its lows, but in mid-November, speculation noted an uptick as the asset’s drawdown continued, with the metric’s value peaking alongside the level that has so far acted as the bottom. Since this high, however, the indicator has cooled off once again and approached the same lows as the ones that followed the massive liquidation event in October. Thus, with Open Interest back under 310,000 BTC, it seems speculative interest in the market has once again become muted. The recent decline in speculative participation has come alongside a drop in the perpetual futures Funding Rate, a metric tracking the amount of periodic fee being exchanged between the short and long investors. From the chart, it’s visible that the Bitcoin perpetual futures Funding Rate has been going down since a while now. “This persistent drift lower reflects a decline in leveraged long conviction, with traders unwilling to pay a premium to maintain upside exposure,” noted the Glassnode researcher. Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Structure Echoes 2022 Bear Start, Glassnode Warns Based on the recent developments, CryptoVizArt.₿ has called the perpetual futures market a “ghost town.” BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $90,500, up almost 6% over the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Long-term holder supply bottomed when bitcoin sank to $80K, signaling that the wave of spot-driven selling may be nearing exhaustion as prices rebound to $90K.
As the gap between spot bitcoin price and the power law widens, investors are left questioning whether mean reversion is coming or if another cornerstone model is approaching its end.
The Bitcoin market continues to experience high levels of investor uncertainty, as indicated by the unstable price action of the past week. In the last month alone, the leading cryptocurrency has lost about 14% of its value, strengthening fears of an impending bear market. Notably, renowned market expert Ali Martinez has shared some insight on this speculation, highlighting a key technical development that historically precedes an extended downtrend. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run Set To Last Until 2027, Analysts Highlight Influential Factors Bitcoin Winter Phase To Start Only When Price Loses 730-Day SMA – Analyst In an X post on Friday, Martinez presents an on-chain analysis that identifies a key price zone for determining Bitcoin’s price trajectory amid current market volatility. Using data from the Bitcoin Investor Tool metric from Glassnode, the analyst has discovered that extended downtrends in Bitcoin often start once the price falls below its 730-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), a level currently sitting at $82,150. For context, the chart below shows that the 730-day SMA (green), an important long-term indicator, has historically acted as a structural support level during major market cycles. When Bitcoin decisively loses this line, momentum tends to shift, leading to deeper corrections and lengthier bearish periods as seen between 2015-2016, 2019, and 2022-2023. However, the chart also presents some bullish insights. Larger cyclical metrics, including the 730-day SMA × 5 band (pink) sitting at $410,771, remain well above the current price, indicating that macro overvaluation is not yet a concern, as the leading cryptocurrency remains far from an overheated zone. According to Ali Martinez, as long as Bitcoin holds above $82,150, the potential for any prolonged downtrend synonymous with a bear market remains minimal, ensuring the bull structure remains intact. Related Reading: Bitcoin Adoption Is Just Getting Started — 200x Growth Possible, Tom Lee Says Bitcoin Weekly Net Outflows Hit $800M As Accumulation Rises In other developments, on-chain analytics firm Sentora reports that the Bitcoin market recorded an $805 million increase in weekly exchange net outflows, indicating that a significant portion of market investors are unfazed by the recent price correction. Instead, they are opting to transfer more of their investment off crypto exchanges, suggesting an intention to hold in anticipation of future price appreciation. Meanwhile, total Bitcoin network fees reached $1.96 million, representing a 7.69% gain from the previous week and indicating an increase in transactions and network activity during this period. At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $89,693 following a 2.71% price decline in the last 24 hours. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from Tradingview
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has pointed out how the current Bitcoin market is reminiscent to the structure from the first quarter of 2022. Bitcoin Dynamics Are Currently Looking Similar To Early 2022 Bear Market In its latest weekly report, Glassnode has discussed about how the broader Bitcoin market structure is starting to resemble Q1 2022. First, the analytics firm has shared the data of its Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model, highlighting price levels that correspond to a certain degree of investor profitability. In the chart, three supply quantiles are listed: 0.75, 0.85, and 0.95. If Bitcoin trades at the first of these levels, 75% of the supply will be in profit. Similarly, the latter two correspond to 85% and 95% profitability, respectively. Related Reading: Ethereum Back At $3,200 As Sharks Show Strong Accumulation It’s visible in the graph that Bitcoin has recently fallen below all three of these levels, indicating more than 25% of the cryptocurrency’s supply is now underwater. “This creates a fragile balance between the risk of top-buyer capitulation and the potential for seller exhaustion to form a bottom,” explained Glassnode. BTC similarly broke below the 0.75 quantile back during the sideways market of early 2022. Another indicator that reinforces the resemblance is the Total Supply in Loss, which measures, as its name suggests, the amount of the Bitcoin circulating supply that’s being held at some net unrealized loss. Below is a chart showing the 7-day moving average (MA) trend in the metric. As displayed in the graph, the 7-day MA Bitcoin Total Supply in Loss hit a high of 7.1 million BTC last week, which is the highest that it has been since September 2023, more than two years ago. The analytics firm noted: The current scale of supply in loss, ranging between 5M–7M BTC, is strikingly similar to the early-2022 sideways market, further reinforcing the resemblance noted above. Finally, the Bitcoin long-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) also implies that the current market structure is mirroring Q1 2022. This metric tells us, in short, whether the Bitcoin investors holding since more than 155 days ago are selling their coins at a profit or loss. The Bitcoin long-term holder SOPR has witnessed a sharp decline recently, but its value is still above 1, indicating the long-term holders are selling at some net profit. With its current value of 1.43, however, there has been a notable shrinkage in the profit margins of the cohort. Related Reading: Next Key XRP Level Could Be $1.2 If Current Support Fails, Says Analyst It now remains to be seen whether the trends in these indicators mean that the cryptocurrency is on the cusp of a bear market transition like in early 2022, or if a rebound will come before long. BTC Price Bitcoin has seen a slight pullback during the past day as its price has dropped to $91,800. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Glassnode and Fasanara’s year-end report shows record inflows, rising realized cap, and falling volatility, suggesting the latest pullback is a mid-cycle reset rather than the start of a long downturn.
Present market dynamics point to a mid-cycle pullback rather than a full-blown crypto winter, Glassnode and Fasanara argued.
XRP’s derivatives market has undergone a marked regime shift, with leverage collapsing and funding normalising in a way that signals a clear retreat from aggressive speculative positioning. The strongest evidence comes from Glassnode’s latest post on November 30, which frames the current phase as a structural, not merely tactical, pause in XRP leverage. XRP Derivatives Unwind Accelerates “XRP’s futures OI has fallen from 1.7B XRP in early October to 0.7B XRP (~59% flush-out). Paired with the funding rate dropping from ~0.01% to 0.001% (7D-SMA), 10/10 marked a structural pause in XRP speculators’ appetite to bet aggressively on upside,” Glassnode’s CryptoVizArt wrote on X. Open interest at 1.7 billion XRP in early October reflected a heavily leveraged market, with large notional positions stacked in futures and perpetuals. The subsequent collapse to 0.7 billion XRP implies that around one billion XRP of derivatives exposure has been closed, liquidated, or otherwise unwound. Such a reduction is not just a marginal trimming of risk; it is a wholesale deleveraging that strips out a large part of the speculative layer sitting on top of the spot market. Related Reading: XRP Flashes ‘Classic Accumulation Sign’ — Major Breakout Soon? The funding-rate move is equally telling. A 7-day SMA around 0.01% had previously indicated a consistent long bias, with traders willing to pay a recurring fee to maintain leveraged upside exposure. The compression to roughly 0.001% pushes funding close to neutral. In perpetual futures, that transition typically occurs when demand for leveraged longs fades and the market no longer tolerates a meaningful premium to hold long positions. Glassnode’s description of October 10 crash as the point that “marked a structural pause” captures this shift in regime: the market moved from persistent long crowding to a far more cautious, balanced stance. The November 30 post sits on top of a broader context Glassnode has been documenting through November. Related Reading: Analyst Teases $7.50 XRP Moonshot But Only After A Final Flush In November 8, the firm highlighted how profit taking has behaved during the recent drawdown: “Unlike previous profit realization waves that aligned with rallies, since late September, as XRP fell from $3.09 (~25%) to $2.30, profit realization volume (7D-SMA) surged by ~240%, from $65M/day to $220M/day. This divergence underscores distribution into weakness, not strength.” Rather than de-risking into strength, profitable holders have been realizing gains as price fell, reinforcing the deleveraging signalled by futures data. On November 17, Glassnode turned to supply dynamics, noting that “the share of XRP supply in profit has fallen to 58.5%, the lowest since Nov 2024, when price was $0.53. Today, despite trading ~4× higher ($2.15), 41.5% of supply (~26.5B XRP) sits in loss — a clear sign of a top-heavy and structurally fragile market dominated by late buyers.” Those on-chain figures provide the background to the 30 November derivatives snapshot: a market whose ownership is skewed toward late entrants now sits on substantial unrealized losses, while the leverage that previously amplified upside has been largely flushed. Taken together, Glassnode’s data on futures open interest and funding rates crystallise the current state of XRP: a violent 59% leverage reset, a near-neutral funding regime, and a speculative cohort that has stepped back from paying for upside, all layered on top of a top-heavy holder base. At press time, XRP traded at $2.04. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
A historically reliable bottom signal appears after bitcoin’s 35% correction.
Large holders return to buying after months of distribution, signalling renewed confidence at key support levels.
Derivatives metrics show rising bearish positioning followed by a sharp reduction in open interest, while price recovery hints at early squeeze dynamics.
A famous trader is betting on a significant XRP price crash amid this recent market downtrend. The altcoin continues to struggle despite the recent launch of Canary’s XRP ETF, with popular analyst Ali Martinez suggesting it could soon drop below the psychological $2 level. Famous Trader Opens $27 Million Short Position On XRP In an X post, the on-chain analytics platform Lookonchain revealed that a famous trader is shorting the market again, opening a 20x short on XRP worth $27.4 million. The trader has also opened short positions of 40x and 10x on Bitcoin and ZEC, respectively, worth $148.5 million and $20.4 million. Related Reading: Abundance of Catalysts Suggests XRP Price Could Take Off This Week This comes as the XRP price continues to struggle, putting it at risk of a further decline, especially with concerns that Bitcoin may already be in a bear market. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez also predicted that XRP could drop to as low as $1.73 if it loses the $2.15 support level. Meanwhile, XRP continues to face significant selling pressure despite increased institutional adoption through the launch of Canary’s XRP fund, with more XRP ETFs also set to launch. Santiment data shows that whales holding between 1 million and 10 million coins recently sold almost 200 million coins in the space of 48 hours. This may just be the start of a larger sell-off following Glassnode’s recent revelation. The on-chain analytics platform revealed that the share of XRP supply in profit has fallen to 58.5%, which is the lowest since November 2024, when the price was trading at around $0.53. Glassnode further noted that despite XRP trading 4x higher now, 41.5% of its supply (around 26.5 billion) sits in loss, which it claimed is a “sign of a top-heavy and structurally fragile market”. Macro Structure Points To A Decline To $2.03 Crypto analyst CasiTrades stated that XRP is still likely making its way down to the macro .5 fib support at $2.03. She claimed that the move is playing out perfectly as Wave 2s are corrective and that the choppiness is exactly how the market should behave. The analyst further revealed that the only invalidation of the drop to the $2.03 support is a decisive break above the macro .382 level at $2.41. Related Reading: Analyst Says XRP Has 2 Options Right Now, Reveals Why Investors Win Either Way CasiTrades explained that this $2.41 level remains the line in the sand and that, as long as XRP stays below it, the structure points to a final sweep of $2.03. She also raised the possibility of a drop to the “still-valid” macro target at $1.65, which is the .618 fib level. The analyst noted that Wave 2 corrections commonly reach the .618 and that the longer XRP ranges without breaking resistance, the more probable a drop to that level becomes. CasiTrades stated that a move to $1.65 would not be bearish, as it would build the kind of momentum needed for a powerful macro Wave 3 to new all-time highs (ATHs). She has predicted that XRP could rally to a new ATH of as high as $10. At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $2.15, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com
Market drawdown pushes bitcoin below 2025 key cost basis levels.
Rising whale activity hints at strategic positioning during bitcoin’s downturn.
U.S.-listed bitcoin ETF assets under management have slipped only about 4% compared with bitcoin’s 25% price drop, highlighting a divergence.
Despite its bearish reputation, every death cross in the current cycle has marked a major local bottom.
ETH plunged below $3,100 on Friday as the crypto selloff accelerated with bitcoin losing the $100,000 level.
Analysts say ETF outflows and heavy supply above $106K suggest bitcoin remains in consolidation mode as whales buy and macro improves.
Large bitcoin holders continue to offload as smaller investors accumulate, creating a stark divide in market behavior.