Onchain data shows multiple cost basis metrics confirm heavy demand and investor conviction around the $80,000 price level.
Bitcoin’s price action in the past two weeks has opened a new phase of stress among traders, with on-chain data showing realized losses climbing to heights last observed in 2022. Glassnode’s latest Week-On-Chain report shows Bitcoin is trading above an important cost-basis level but is also visibly straining under intensified loss realization, fading demand and weakening liquidity, which has placed short-term investors in a difficult position. Realized Losses Return To Deep Territory According to Glassnode, realized losses among Bitcoin entities have risen massively, and is now almost at the same magnitudes recorded during the deep retracements of the 2022 bear market. Particularly, the Relative Unrealized Loss (30D-SMA) has climbed to 4.4% after nearly two years below 2%. Related Reading: The Current Bitcoin Price Pump Will End In A Crash – Here’s When To Start Selling The escalation in loss realization reflects how the recent drawdown below $90,000 has forced a large number of market participants to offload coins at prices below their acquisition cost. This, in turn, has disrupted the gradual improvement in profitability seen earlier in the year. Bitcoin’s recent bounce from the November 22 low to above $92,000 hasn’t eased the strain on holders. Glassnode noted that entities are still locking in losses at an increasing pace, with the 30-day average of realized losses now at around $555 million per day. These conditions mean that investors are losing confidence in short-term upside prospects for Bitcoin and choose to reduce exposure, even at unfavorable prices. Therefore, the report noted that resolving it will require a renewed wave of liquidity and demand to rebuild confidence. Glassnode also highlights a sharp rise in profit-taking among long-term holders, whose realized gains have climbed to roughly $1 billion per day and briefly set a new record above $1.3 billion. Even with this elevated level of distribution, Bitcoin is currently positioned just above the True Market Mean, which is a long-standing cost-basis benchmark that serves as a point of structural support. The recent price downturn below $90,000 has pushed this zone close to its limits, but the glimpse of demand reflected around it suggests that price could revisit the 0.75 quantile near $95,000 and possibly approach the short-term holder cost basis as well. Spot ETF, Futures, And Options Markets Indicate Weakness Glassnode’s report points to persistent softness across ETF flows, which have cooled notably after a period of strong inflows earlier in the year. This slowdown represents a reduction in one of the largest and most immediate sources of buy-side liquidity for Bitcoin. Related Reading: Why Is The Bitcoin Price Down Again? Analyst Calls Out Trading Desk For Triggering Crashes Spot market liquidity has also faded, with order books on major exchanges near the lower bound of their 30-day range. This has created an environment where trading activity has weakened through November and into December, and fewer liquidity flows are available to absorb volatility or sustain directional moves. Derivatives positioning reflects similar caution, with funding rates pinned near neutral. Futures open interest has also been subdued and has failed to meaningfully rebuild since the breakdown below $90,000. Across all major venues, the tone is the same: liquidity is lighter, sentiment is softening, and participants are leaning defensive rather than pursuing short-term rallies. The attention is now on how Bitcoin will respond in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
The Solana network has seen its validator count crash by more than 68% over the past three years, falling from thousands of active nodes to just around 800. The massive decline in validators has sparked discussions about whether this could become a threat to the blockchain network or a natural pruning of inactive nodes to increase efficiency. Solana loses 68% Of Its Validators In 3 Years A new report from Criptonocias reveals that Solana has experienced a dramatic decline in the number of its validators, active and non-active, since March 2023. This decrease has raised concerns across the crypto community about the network’s overall health and security. Related Reading: Why Has The Solana Price Been Crashing Since October? This Major SOL Player Is Selling Over the last three years, the Solana network has steadily lost validators, going from 2,500 to 2,100 in November 2022 and now hovering around 800. This decline means the blockchain has lost a total of 1,700 validators. Although this considerable decrease should trigger warning alerts, it could be a result of ledger pruning, which involves removing inactive or redundant nodes to streamline a network and improve its performance without compromising security. Notably, validators are crucial for the operation of a blockchain network, as they run nodes, confirm transactions, and help maintain the integrity of the system. Each validator adds to the diversity of the network and reduces the risk of any single entity gaining excessive control. According to the report, some voices in the Solana ecosystem see the reduction of validators in a positive light. They argue that losing “Sybil validators,” which are nodes pretending to be multiple independent operators but are actually controlled by a single party, can be beneficial. Based on this perspective, having a smaller number of reliable and active validators is healthier than maintaining thousands of nodes that do not contribute meaningfully to the blockchain network. Criptonocias revealed that teams such as Layer 33, which develops infrastructure node tools and provides network services for Solana, point out that many of the validators leaving the blockchain are not Sybils but legitimate node operators. This suggests that the drop in numbers does not automatically equate to improved network quality despite widespread talks about ledge pruning. Notably, the potential impact on the Solana network, whether negative or positive, depends on the independence of the remaining validators and the distribution of power among them. An updated report of the validator count reveals that it has dropped again from 800 to 795. Solana Faces Liquidity Crunch As Profitability Declines Amidst its decline in validators, the Solana network is showing signs of strain as liquidity dries up and profitability declines. On-chain data from Glassnode highlights a troubling trend in the network’s trading activity, with the 30-day average realized profit-to-loss ratio remaining below 1 since mid-November. Related Reading: Solana Welcomes Bearish December, But Pundit Shares Possible Move To $170 This level is typically associated with bear market conditions and points to a growing imbalance between gains and losses among traders. A ratio below 1 also indicates that traders are realizing losses more frequently than profits, underscoring the cryptocurrency’s weakening market sentiment. Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview.com
Glassnode’s senior researcher has pointed out how Bitcoin perpetual futures market is looking like a “ghost town,” with Open Interest continuing to be at muted levels. Bitcoin Futures Open Interest Has Remained Low Since October Reset In a new post on X, Glassnode senior researcher CryptoVizArt.₿ has talked about the recent trend in the Bitcoin Open Interest for the perpetual futures market. The “Open Interest” refers to an indicator that measures the total amount of positions related to the asset that are currently open on all centralized derivatives platforms. Related Reading: This 11.7 Billion Dogecoin Wall Could Be Key Resistance For DOGE, Analyst Says When the value of the metric rises, it means the investors are opening new positions related to the asset. Generally, new positions come with fresh leverage for the sector, so the cryptocurrency’s price can become more volatile following an increase in the Open Interest. On the other hand, the indicator going down suggests the perpetual futures traders are either closing up position of their own volition or getting forcibly liquidated by their platform. Such a trend can lead to more stable price action for BTC due to the clearing of leverage. Now, here is the chart shared by CryptoVizArt.₿ that shows the trend in the Bitcoin perpetual futures Open Interest (BTC-denominated) over the last few months: As displayed in the above graph, the BTC-denominated Bitcoin perpetual futures Open Interest saw a sharp plunge back in October as a result of the crash in the cryptocurrency’s price. Following the leverage flush, the indicator traveled sideways around its lows, but in mid-November, speculation noted an uptick as the asset’s drawdown continued, with the metric’s value peaking alongside the level that has so far acted as the bottom. Since this high, however, the indicator has cooled off once again and approached the same lows as the ones that followed the massive liquidation event in October. Thus, with Open Interest back under 310,000 BTC, it seems speculative interest in the market has once again become muted. The recent decline in speculative participation has come alongside a drop in the perpetual futures Funding Rate, a metric tracking the amount of periodic fee being exchanged between the short and long investors. From the chart, it’s visible that the Bitcoin perpetual futures Funding Rate has been going down since a while now. “This persistent drift lower reflects a decline in leveraged long conviction, with traders unwilling to pay a premium to maintain upside exposure,” noted the Glassnode researcher. Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Structure Echoes 2022 Bear Start, Glassnode Warns Based on the recent developments, CryptoVizArt.₿ has called the perpetual futures market a “ghost town.” BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $90,500, up almost 6% over the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Long-term holder supply bottomed when bitcoin sank to $80K, signaling that the wave of spot-driven selling may be nearing exhaustion as prices rebound to $90K.
As the gap between spot bitcoin price and the power law widens, investors are left questioning whether mean reversion is coming or if another cornerstone model is approaching its end.
The Bitcoin market continues to experience high levels of investor uncertainty, as indicated by the unstable price action of the past week. In the last month alone, the leading cryptocurrency has lost about 14% of its value, strengthening fears of an impending bear market. Notably, renowned market expert Ali Martinez has shared some insight on this speculation, highlighting a key technical development that historically precedes an extended downtrend. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run Set To Last Until 2027, Analysts Highlight Influential Factors Bitcoin Winter Phase To Start Only When Price Loses 730-Day SMA – Analyst In an X post on Friday, Martinez presents an on-chain analysis that identifies a key price zone for determining Bitcoin’s price trajectory amid current market volatility. Using data from the Bitcoin Investor Tool metric from Glassnode, the analyst has discovered that extended downtrends in Bitcoin often start once the price falls below its 730-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), a level currently sitting at $82,150. For context, the chart below shows that the 730-day SMA (green), an important long-term indicator, has historically acted as a structural support level during major market cycles. When Bitcoin decisively loses this line, momentum tends to shift, leading to deeper corrections and lengthier bearish periods as seen between 2015-2016, 2019, and 2022-2023. However, the chart also presents some bullish insights. Larger cyclical metrics, including the 730-day SMA × 5 band (pink) sitting at $410,771, remain well above the current price, indicating that macro overvaluation is not yet a concern, as the leading cryptocurrency remains far from an overheated zone. According to Ali Martinez, as long as Bitcoin holds above $82,150, the potential for any prolonged downtrend synonymous with a bear market remains minimal, ensuring the bull structure remains intact. Related Reading: Bitcoin Adoption Is Just Getting Started — 200x Growth Possible, Tom Lee Says Bitcoin Weekly Net Outflows Hit $800M As Accumulation Rises In other developments, on-chain analytics firm Sentora reports that the Bitcoin market recorded an $805 million increase in weekly exchange net outflows, indicating that a significant portion of market investors are unfazed by the recent price correction. Instead, they are opting to transfer more of their investment off crypto exchanges, suggesting an intention to hold in anticipation of future price appreciation. Meanwhile, total Bitcoin network fees reached $1.96 million, representing a 7.69% gain from the previous week and indicating an increase in transactions and network activity during this period. At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $89,693 following a 2.71% price decline in the last 24 hours. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from Tradingview
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has pointed out how the current Bitcoin market is reminiscent to the structure from the first quarter of 2022. Bitcoin Dynamics Are Currently Looking Similar To Early 2022 Bear Market In its latest weekly report, Glassnode has discussed about how the broader Bitcoin market structure is starting to resemble Q1 2022. First, the analytics firm has shared the data of its Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model, highlighting price levels that correspond to a certain degree of investor profitability. In the chart, three supply quantiles are listed: 0.75, 0.85, and 0.95. If Bitcoin trades at the first of these levels, 75% of the supply will be in profit. Similarly, the latter two correspond to 85% and 95% profitability, respectively. Related Reading: Ethereum Back At $3,200 As Sharks Show Strong Accumulation It’s visible in the graph that Bitcoin has recently fallen below all three of these levels, indicating more than 25% of the cryptocurrency’s supply is now underwater. “This creates a fragile balance between the risk of top-buyer capitulation and the potential for seller exhaustion to form a bottom,” explained Glassnode. BTC similarly broke below the 0.75 quantile back during the sideways market of early 2022. Another indicator that reinforces the resemblance is the Total Supply in Loss, which measures, as its name suggests, the amount of the Bitcoin circulating supply that’s being held at some net unrealized loss. Below is a chart showing the 7-day moving average (MA) trend in the metric. As displayed in the graph, the 7-day MA Bitcoin Total Supply in Loss hit a high of 7.1 million BTC last week, which is the highest that it has been since September 2023, more than two years ago. The analytics firm noted: The current scale of supply in loss, ranging between 5M–7M BTC, is strikingly similar to the early-2022 sideways market, further reinforcing the resemblance noted above. Finally, the Bitcoin long-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) also implies that the current market structure is mirroring Q1 2022. This metric tells us, in short, whether the Bitcoin investors holding since more than 155 days ago are selling their coins at a profit or loss. The Bitcoin long-term holder SOPR has witnessed a sharp decline recently, but its value is still above 1, indicating the long-term holders are selling at some net profit. With its current value of 1.43, however, there has been a notable shrinkage in the profit margins of the cohort. Related Reading: Next Key XRP Level Could Be $1.2 If Current Support Fails, Says Analyst It now remains to be seen whether the trends in these indicators mean that the cryptocurrency is on the cusp of a bear market transition like in early 2022, or if a rebound will come before long. BTC Price Bitcoin has seen a slight pullback during the past day as its price has dropped to $91,800. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Glassnode and Fasanara’s year-end report shows record inflows, rising realized cap, and falling volatility, suggesting the latest pullback is a mid-cycle reset rather than the start of a long downturn.
Present market dynamics point to a mid-cycle pullback rather than a full-blown crypto winter, Glassnode and Fasanara argued.
XRP’s derivatives market has undergone a marked regime shift, with leverage collapsing and funding normalising in a way that signals a clear retreat from aggressive speculative positioning. The strongest evidence comes from Glassnode’s latest post on November 30, which frames the current phase as a structural, not merely tactical, pause in XRP leverage. XRP Derivatives Unwind Accelerates “XRP’s futures OI has fallen from 1.7B XRP in early October to 0.7B XRP (~59% flush-out). Paired with the funding rate dropping from ~0.01% to 0.001% (7D-SMA), 10/10 marked a structural pause in XRP speculators’ appetite to bet aggressively on upside,” Glassnode’s CryptoVizArt wrote on X. Open interest at 1.7 billion XRP in early October reflected a heavily leveraged market, with large notional positions stacked in futures and perpetuals. The subsequent collapse to 0.7 billion XRP implies that around one billion XRP of derivatives exposure has been closed, liquidated, or otherwise unwound. Such a reduction is not just a marginal trimming of risk; it is a wholesale deleveraging that strips out a large part of the speculative layer sitting on top of the spot market. Related Reading: XRP Flashes ‘Classic Accumulation Sign’ — Major Breakout Soon? The funding-rate move is equally telling. A 7-day SMA around 0.01% had previously indicated a consistent long bias, with traders willing to pay a recurring fee to maintain leveraged upside exposure. The compression to roughly 0.001% pushes funding close to neutral. In perpetual futures, that transition typically occurs when demand for leveraged longs fades and the market no longer tolerates a meaningful premium to hold long positions. Glassnode’s description of October 10 crash as the point that “marked a structural pause” captures this shift in regime: the market moved from persistent long crowding to a far more cautious, balanced stance. The November 30 post sits on top of a broader context Glassnode has been documenting through November. Related Reading: Analyst Teases $7.50 XRP Moonshot But Only After A Final Flush In November 8, the firm highlighted how profit taking has behaved during the recent drawdown: “Unlike previous profit realization waves that aligned with rallies, since late September, as XRP fell from $3.09 (~25%) to $2.30, profit realization volume (7D-SMA) surged by ~240%, from $65M/day to $220M/day. This divergence underscores distribution into weakness, not strength.” Rather than de-risking into strength, profitable holders have been realizing gains as price fell, reinforcing the deleveraging signalled by futures data. On November 17, Glassnode turned to supply dynamics, noting that “the share of XRP supply in profit has fallen to 58.5%, the lowest since Nov 2024, when price was $0.53. Today, despite trading ~4× higher ($2.15), 41.5% of supply (~26.5B XRP) sits in loss — a clear sign of a top-heavy and structurally fragile market dominated by late buyers.” Those on-chain figures provide the background to the 30 November derivatives snapshot: a market whose ownership is skewed toward late entrants now sits on substantial unrealized losses, while the leverage that previously amplified upside has been largely flushed. Taken together, Glassnode’s data on futures open interest and funding rates crystallise the current state of XRP: a violent 59% leverage reset, a near-neutral funding regime, and a speculative cohort that has stepped back from paying for upside, all layered on top of a top-heavy holder base. At press time, XRP traded at $2.04. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
A historically reliable bottom signal appears after bitcoin’s 35% correction.
Large holders return to buying after months of distribution, signalling renewed confidence at key support levels.
Derivatives metrics show rising bearish positioning followed by a sharp reduction in open interest, while price recovery hints at early squeeze dynamics.
A famous trader is betting on a significant XRP price crash amid this recent market downtrend. The altcoin continues to struggle despite the recent launch of Canary’s XRP ETF, with popular analyst Ali Martinez suggesting it could soon drop below the psychological $2 level. Famous Trader Opens $27 Million Short Position On XRP In an X post, the on-chain analytics platform Lookonchain revealed that a famous trader is shorting the market again, opening a 20x short on XRP worth $27.4 million. The trader has also opened short positions of 40x and 10x on Bitcoin and ZEC, respectively, worth $148.5 million and $20.4 million. Related Reading: Abundance of Catalysts Suggests XRP Price Could Take Off This Week This comes as the XRP price continues to struggle, putting it at risk of a further decline, especially with concerns that Bitcoin may already be in a bear market. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez also predicted that XRP could drop to as low as $1.73 if it loses the $2.15 support level. Meanwhile, XRP continues to face significant selling pressure despite increased institutional adoption through the launch of Canary’s XRP fund, with more XRP ETFs also set to launch. Santiment data shows that whales holding between 1 million and 10 million coins recently sold almost 200 million coins in the space of 48 hours. This may just be the start of a larger sell-off following Glassnode’s recent revelation. The on-chain analytics platform revealed that the share of XRP supply in profit has fallen to 58.5%, which is the lowest since November 2024, when the price was trading at around $0.53. Glassnode further noted that despite XRP trading 4x higher now, 41.5% of its supply (around 26.5 billion) sits in loss, which it claimed is a “sign of a top-heavy and structurally fragile market”. Macro Structure Points To A Decline To $2.03 Crypto analyst CasiTrades stated that XRP is still likely making its way down to the macro .5 fib support at $2.03. She claimed that the move is playing out perfectly as Wave 2s are corrective and that the choppiness is exactly how the market should behave. The analyst further revealed that the only invalidation of the drop to the $2.03 support is a decisive break above the macro .382 level at $2.41. Related Reading: Analyst Says XRP Has 2 Options Right Now, Reveals Why Investors Win Either Way CasiTrades explained that this $2.41 level remains the line in the sand and that, as long as XRP stays below it, the structure points to a final sweep of $2.03. She also raised the possibility of a drop to the “still-valid” macro target at $1.65, which is the .618 fib level. The analyst noted that Wave 2 corrections commonly reach the .618 and that the longer XRP ranges without breaking resistance, the more probable a drop to that level becomes. CasiTrades stated that a move to $1.65 would not be bearish, as it would build the kind of momentum needed for a powerful macro Wave 3 to new all-time highs (ATHs). She has predicted that XRP could rally to a new ATH of as high as $10. At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $2.15, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com
Market drawdown pushes bitcoin below 2025 key cost basis levels.
Rising whale activity hints at strategic positioning during bitcoin’s downturn.
U.S.-listed bitcoin ETF assets under management have slipped only about 4% compared with bitcoin’s 25% price drop, highlighting a divergence.
Despite its bearish reputation, every death cross in the current cycle has marked a major local bottom.
ETH plunged below $3,100 on Friday as the crypto selloff accelerated with bitcoin losing the $100,000 level.
Analysts say ETF outflows and heavy supply above $106K suggest bitcoin remains in consolidation mode as whales buy and macro improves.
Large bitcoin holders continue to offload as smaller investors accumulate, creating a stark divide in market behavior.
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has revealed how Bitcoin could be at risk of a further drawdown after trading at a significant discount to a key cost basis level. Bitcoin Could Retest Active Realized Price Next In its latest weekly report, Glassnode has talked about how Bitcoin has dropped a notable distance below the short-term holder (STH) Realized Price. The “Realized Price” here refers to an on-chain metric that tracks the cost basis of the average investor or address on the BTC network. To any investor, their break-even mark tends to be a level of particular importance, as retests of it can potentially flip their profit-loss situation. Due to this, Realized Price levels have often shown interactions with the asset’s price, as investors make moves to either exit with their money back or buy more to defend their cost basis. Related Reading: Cardano Retests Line That Has Triggered Strong Rebounds Since Nov 2024 A group that’s considered particularly sensitive to short-term volatility is the STH cohort, made up of the investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. The Realized Price of the STHs generally provides support during bullish trends, but with the recent market crash, Bitcoin has plummeted under it. As displayed in the above chart, Bitcoin at its post-crash levels is trading significantly below the STH Realized Price located at $112,500. This means that members of the cohort are now notably underwater. “Historically, discounts with such depth from this level have increased the likelihood of further downside toward lower structural supports,” explained Glassnode. One such support is the Active Realized Price, corresponding to the cost basis of the “economically active” part of the BTC supply. A chunk of the cryptocurrency’s supply has been dormant for so long that it can safely be presumed lost. In other words, these tokens will never make their way back into circulation. Such coins have no effect on the market today, so the Active Realized Price excludes them from the data, labeling them “economically inactive.” The report noted that this level “has often served as a critical reference point during extended corrective phases in prior cycles.” At present, the indicator is sitting near $88,500. Related Reading: Bitcoin & Ethereum Social Sentiment Collapses, But XRP Just Sees Disinterest The Bitcoin STH Realized Price isn’t the only level that the asset has lost recently. As on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has pointed out in an X post, the asset has also declined below the 365-day moving average (MA). CryptoQuant has described the line as “a key technical and psychological support level last broken at the start of the 2022 bear market.” Considering that Bitcoin has lost the STH Realized Price, and now, this level as well, it remains to be seen whether the asset will end up retesting the Active Realized Price and other lower support levels. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $103,300, down over 6% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Key moving averages remain crucial support levels as long-term investors trim holdings, adding pressure to the ongoing bull market.
The analytics firm warns that Bitcoin’s failure to reclaim the $113K cost basis may lead to deeper retracement toward $88K amid long-term holder selling and fragile sentiment.
After months of steady gains, BTC is slipping below key cost-basis levels as long-term holders sell into strength and traders retreat to defensive derivatives.
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has explained how Bitcoin losing $108,500 could lead to a deeper correction, if the past pattern is to go by. Bitcoin Is At Risk Of Losing The 0.85 Quantile Level In its latest weekly report, analytics firm Glassnode has talked about how Bitcoin is currently looking from the perspective of the Supply Quantiles Cost Basis model. This model maps price levels according to the amount of BTC supply that would be lost if the cryptocurrency were to trade at its current price today. There are three supply “quantiles” involved in the indicator: 0.95, 0.85, and 0.75, corresponding to levels where 5%, 15%, and 25% of the supply would be held at a loss, respectively. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Ready For A Rebound? This Metric Says More Pain Needed First Below is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the different Bitcoin supply quantiles over the last few years. As is visible in the graph, Bitcoin surged above the 0.95 quantile during its price rally earlier in the month, as the supply in profit approached the 100% mark during the new all-time high (ATH). With the recent bearish action, however, the cryptocurrency has fallen below the line and is now trading around the 0.85 quantile situated at $108,600. Thus, it would appear that about 15% of the BTC supply is in the red at the moment. Bitcoin has already faced dips below this mark, so it’s possible that the coin may be at risk of losing the line. “Historically, failure to hold this threshold has signalled structural market weakness and often preceded deeper corrections toward the 0.75 quantile,” explained the analytics firm. BTC last saw such a decline to the 0.75 quantile during the consolidation period in mid-2024. Currently, this level is equivalent to $97,500. It now remains to be seen whether the asset can maintain above the 0.85 quantile, and if not, whether a retest of the 0.75 quantile will take place. The 0.95 quantile isn’t the only level that Bitcoin has lost during the recent drawdown; its price has also dropped below the average cost basis of the short-term holders (STHs) located at $113,100. STHs here refer to the BTC investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. This group is considered to represent the fragile side of the market, prone to making panic moves during times of volatility. With BTC dropping below the cost basis of the cohort, its members are now underwater. “Historically, this structure often precedes the onset of a mid-term bearish phase, as weaker hands begin to capitulate,” noted Glassnode. Related Reading: Bitcoin Cycle Top Still Not In, Suggests NVT Golden Cross In an X post, the analytics firm has shared a chart that puts into perspective the net unrealized loss held by the Bitcoin STHs right now. BTC Price Bitcoin hasn’t been able to sustain a recovery recently as its price is still trading around $109,100. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
The Bitcoin supply in profit has seen a sharp decline amid the latest crypto market crash. This has raised concerns that BTC could suffer a further crash, as holders who are in the red may move to offload their coins. Bitcoin Supply In Profit Drops Amid Market Crash On-chain analytics platform Glassnode revealed in a report that the Bitcoin supply in profit has historically dropped to around 85%, with 15% of the supply sitting at a loss. This has occurred whenever the BTC price breaks down from a new all-time high (ATH) and trades around the short-term holders’ cost basis, as is happening now. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Supercycle Still In Play? Wave 3 Tells A Story Of A Surge Glassnode noted that this marks a pivotal phase for Bitcoin, as this is where the market tests the conviction of investors who had bought near recent highs. This pattern is said to be playing out for the third time in this current cycle. The on-chain analytics platform warned that if BTC fails to recover above the $113,100 range, a deeper contraction could send a larger share of the Bitcoin supply into loss. Glassnode further stated that this deeper contraction could amplify the stress among recent Bitcoin buyers, which could set the stage for a broader capitulation across the market. The platform also alluded to the Supply Quantile Cost Basis to explain why it is essential for BTC to reclaim the short-term holders’ cost basis above $113,000. Bitcoin is said to be struggling to hold above the 0.85 quantile at $108,600. Failure to hold this has historically indicated structural market weakness and often preceded deeper corrections toward the 0.75 quantile, which now aligns near $97,500. This puts BTC at risk of dropping below $100,000 for the first time since May. A Longer Consolidation Phase May Be Necessary Glassnode stated that from a macro perspective, the repeated demand exhaustion suggests that Bitcoin may require a longer consolidation phase to rebuild strength. This exhaustion is said to be clearer with the Long-Term Holder Spend Volume. These long-term holders have increased their spending with the 30D-SMA rising from the 10,000 BTC baseline to over 22,000 BTC daily since the market peak in July. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin About To See A Repeat Of 2020-2021? What Happened After The Last Flash Crash Glassnode noted that such persistent distribution indicates profit-taking from seasoned investors, which has contributed to the current Bitcoin weakness. Bitcoin OGs have continued to offload their coins at an unprecedented rate, putting significant selling pressure on BTC. Onchain Lens recently revealed that a particular whale moved 3,003 BTC to Binance, likely in a bid to sell, while also shorting BTC with a position worth $227 million. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $108,800, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
BTC slips below $108,000 and trades between major moving averages, with crucial support and resistance levels now in focus.
Bitcoin price has continued to hover in the range of $106,000-$108,000 over the last 24 hours. The premier cryptocurrency is presently displaying some stability following another volatile trading week, which produced a 3.41% price loss. Notably, Bitcoin’s movement amid this corrective phase has triggered an interesting on-chain signal with bullish implications. Related Reading: Bitcoin May See Selloff If $100,000 Support Fails — Here’s Why Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Go Underwater, But Historical Data Reads Bullish Signs In an X post on October 18, popular market analyst, Ali Martinez, shares an important on-chain development. Amid the recent price decline, Martinez notes that Bitcoin slipped below its short-term holders’ (STH) realized price, creating an ideal situation for a market accumulation based on historical data. For context, the STH realized price represents the average acquisition price of coins held by short-term investors, i.e, wallets that have held BTC for less than 155 days. Typically, when the market price dips below this level, it indicates that new market entrants are underwater, signaling local capitulation and short-term fear in the market Based on the Glassnode data shared by Martinez, Bitcoin fell below its STH realized price on October 14 during its latest price correction. While such developments usually trigger temporary selling pressure, historical data show it has also become a cue for strategic buyers. In particular, the price dip below the STH realized price appears to align with strong rebound points in the market. Notably, the chart above shows four prior instances (May 2023, November 2023, August 2024, and May 2025), where Bitcoin’s descent below the STH realized price was followed by substantial recoveries. Martinez explains that this price dip usually provides a good opportunity for market accumulation, thereby fueling future price rallies. Interestingly, the broader Bitcoin market remains dominated by long-term holders, who are potentially utilizing this price pocket to strengthen their holdings, thus maintaining the present bullish structure. Related Reading: More Pain Ahead? Bitcoin Trendline Breach Sparks Talk Of Corrective Wave In Play Bull Market Still On In other news, a fellow market analyst with the username Titan of Crypto has recently stated that the Bitcoin bull market remains active amid bearish speculations following the latest price drops. Titan of Crypto has hinged their positive market insight on the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which has acted as a pivotal level in determining price direction in the current market cycle The analyst notes that as long as Bitcoin’s weekly candle holds above this level, the broader bull market continues to stay active. At press time, Bitcoin is valued at $106,800, reflecting a minor 0.40% decline in the past day. Meanwhile, daily trading volume is down by 61% and valued at $39.3 billion. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview
Long-term holders and whales continue to offload BTC as profit-taking intensifies and the four-year cycle narrative shows signs of weakening.