On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has revealed how Bitcoin could be at risk of a further drawdown after trading at a significant discount to a key cost basis level. Bitcoin Could Retest Active Realized Price Next In its latest weekly report, Glassnode has talked about how Bitcoin has dropped a notable distance below the short-term holder (STH) Realized Price. The “Realized Price” here refers to an on-chain metric that tracks the cost basis of the average investor or address on the BTC network. To any investor, their break-even mark tends to be a level of particular importance, as retests of it can potentially flip their profit-loss situation. Due to this, Realized Price levels have often shown interactions with the asset’s price, as investors make moves to either exit with their money back or buy more to defend their cost basis. Related Reading: Cardano Retests Line That Has Triggered Strong Rebounds Since Nov 2024 A group that’s considered particularly sensitive to short-term volatility is the STH cohort, made up of the investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. The Realized Price of the STHs generally provides support during bullish trends, but with the recent market crash, Bitcoin has plummeted under it. As displayed in the above chart, Bitcoin at its post-crash levels is trading significantly below the STH Realized Price located at $112,500. This means that members of the cohort are now notably underwater. “Historically, discounts with such depth from this level have increased the likelihood of further downside toward lower structural supports,” explained Glassnode. One such support is the Active Realized Price, corresponding to the cost basis of the “economically active” part of the BTC supply. A chunk of the cryptocurrency’s supply has been dormant for so long that it can safely be presumed lost. In other words, these tokens will never make their way back into circulation. Such coins have no effect on the market today, so the Active Realized Price excludes them from the data, labeling them “economically inactive.” The report noted that this level “has often served as a critical reference point during extended corrective phases in prior cycles.” At present, the indicator is sitting near $88,500. Related Reading: Bitcoin & Ethereum Social Sentiment Collapses, But XRP Just Sees Disinterest The Bitcoin STH Realized Price isn’t the only level that the asset has lost recently. As on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has pointed out in an X post, the asset has also declined below the 365-day moving average (MA). CryptoQuant has described the line as “a key technical and psychological support level last broken at the start of the 2022 bear market.” Considering that Bitcoin has lost the STH Realized Price, and now, this level as well, it remains to be seen whether the asset will end up retesting the Active Realized Price and other lower support levels. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $103,300, down over 6% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Key moving averages remain crucial support levels as long-term investors trim holdings, adding pressure to the ongoing bull market.
The analytics firm warns that Bitcoin’s failure to reclaim the $113K cost basis may lead to deeper retracement toward $88K amid long-term holder selling and fragile sentiment.
After months of steady gains, BTC is slipping below key cost-basis levels as long-term holders sell into strength and traders retreat to defensive derivatives.
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has explained how Bitcoin losing $108,500 could lead to a deeper correction, if the past pattern is to go by. Bitcoin Is At Risk Of Losing The 0.85 Quantile Level In its latest weekly report, analytics firm Glassnode has talked about how Bitcoin is currently looking from the perspective of the Supply Quantiles Cost Basis model. This model maps price levels according to the amount of BTC supply that would be lost if the cryptocurrency were to trade at its current price today. There are three supply “quantiles” involved in the indicator: 0.95, 0.85, and 0.75, corresponding to levels where 5%, 15%, and 25% of the supply would be held at a loss, respectively. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Ready For A Rebound? This Metric Says More Pain Needed First Below is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the different Bitcoin supply quantiles over the last few years. As is visible in the graph, Bitcoin surged above the 0.95 quantile during its price rally earlier in the month, as the supply in profit approached the 100% mark during the new all-time high (ATH). With the recent bearish action, however, the cryptocurrency has fallen below the line and is now trading around the 0.85 quantile situated at $108,600. Thus, it would appear that about 15% of the BTC supply is in the red at the moment. Bitcoin has already faced dips below this mark, so it’s possible that the coin may be at risk of losing the line. “Historically, failure to hold this threshold has signalled structural market weakness and often preceded deeper corrections toward the 0.75 quantile,” explained the analytics firm. BTC last saw such a decline to the 0.75 quantile during the consolidation period in mid-2024. Currently, this level is equivalent to $97,500. It now remains to be seen whether the asset can maintain above the 0.85 quantile, and if not, whether a retest of the 0.75 quantile will take place. The 0.95 quantile isn’t the only level that Bitcoin has lost during the recent drawdown; its price has also dropped below the average cost basis of the short-term holders (STHs) located at $113,100. STHs here refer to the BTC investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. This group is considered to represent the fragile side of the market, prone to making panic moves during times of volatility. With BTC dropping below the cost basis of the cohort, its members are now underwater. “Historically, this structure often precedes the onset of a mid-term bearish phase, as weaker hands begin to capitulate,” noted Glassnode. Related Reading: Bitcoin Cycle Top Still Not In, Suggests NVT Golden Cross In an X post, the analytics firm has shared a chart that puts into perspective the net unrealized loss held by the Bitcoin STHs right now. BTC Price Bitcoin hasn’t been able to sustain a recovery recently as its price is still trading around $109,100. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
The Bitcoin supply in profit has seen a sharp decline amid the latest crypto market crash. This has raised concerns that BTC could suffer a further crash, as holders who are in the red may move to offload their coins. Bitcoin Supply In Profit Drops Amid Market Crash On-chain analytics platform Glassnode revealed in a report that the Bitcoin supply in profit has historically dropped to around 85%, with 15% of the supply sitting at a loss. This has occurred whenever the BTC price breaks down from a new all-time high (ATH) and trades around the short-term holders’ cost basis, as is happening now. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Supercycle Still In Play? Wave 3 Tells A Story Of A Surge Glassnode noted that this marks a pivotal phase for Bitcoin, as this is where the market tests the conviction of investors who had bought near recent highs. This pattern is said to be playing out for the third time in this current cycle. The on-chain analytics platform warned that if BTC fails to recover above the $113,100 range, a deeper contraction could send a larger share of the Bitcoin supply into loss. Glassnode further stated that this deeper contraction could amplify the stress among recent Bitcoin buyers, which could set the stage for a broader capitulation across the market. The platform also alluded to the Supply Quantile Cost Basis to explain why it is essential for BTC to reclaim the short-term holders’ cost basis above $113,000. Bitcoin is said to be struggling to hold above the 0.85 quantile at $108,600. Failure to hold this has historically indicated structural market weakness and often preceded deeper corrections toward the 0.75 quantile, which now aligns near $97,500. This puts BTC at risk of dropping below $100,000 for the first time since May. A Longer Consolidation Phase May Be Necessary Glassnode stated that from a macro perspective, the repeated demand exhaustion suggests that Bitcoin may require a longer consolidation phase to rebuild strength. This exhaustion is said to be clearer with the Long-Term Holder Spend Volume. These long-term holders have increased their spending with the 30D-SMA rising from the 10,000 BTC baseline to over 22,000 BTC daily since the market peak in July. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin About To See A Repeat Of 2020-2021? What Happened After The Last Flash Crash Glassnode noted that such persistent distribution indicates profit-taking from seasoned investors, which has contributed to the current Bitcoin weakness. Bitcoin OGs have continued to offload their coins at an unprecedented rate, putting significant selling pressure on BTC. Onchain Lens recently revealed that a particular whale moved 3,003 BTC to Binance, likely in a bid to sell, while also shorting BTC with a position worth $227 million. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $108,800, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
BTC slips below $108,000 and trades between major moving averages, with crucial support and resistance levels now in focus.
Bitcoin price has continued to hover in the range of $106,000-$108,000 over the last 24 hours. The premier cryptocurrency is presently displaying some stability following another volatile trading week, which produced a 3.41% price loss. Notably, Bitcoin’s movement amid this corrective phase has triggered an interesting on-chain signal with bullish implications. Related Reading: Bitcoin May See Selloff If $100,000 Support Fails — Here’s Why Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Go Underwater, But Historical Data Reads Bullish Signs In an X post on October 18, popular market analyst, Ali Martinez, shares an important on-chain development. Amid the recent price decline, Martinez notes that Bitcoin slipped below its short-term holders’ (STH) realized price, creating an ideal situation for a market accumulation based on historical data. For context, the STH realized price represents the average acquisition price of coins held by short-term investors, i.e, wallets that have held BTC for less than 155 days. Typically, when the market price dips below this level, it indicates that new market entrants are underwater, signaling local capitulation and short-term fear in the market Based on the Glassnode data shared by Martinez, Bitcoin fell below its STH realized price on October 14 during its latest price correction. While such developments usually trigger temporary selling pressure, historical data show it has also become a cue for strategic buyers. In particular, the price dip below the STH realized price appears to align with strong rebound points in the market. Notably, the chart above shows four prior instances (May 2023, November 2023, August 2024, and May 2025), where Bitcoin’s descent below the STH realized price was followed by substantial recoveries. Martinez explains that this price dip usually provides a good opportunity for market accumulation, thereby fueling future price rallies. Interestingly, the broader Bitcoin market remains dominated by long-term holders, who are potentially utilizing this price pocket to strengthen their holdings, thus maintaining the present bullish structure. Related Reading: More Pain Ahead? Bitcoin Trendline Breach Sparks Talk Of Corrective Wave In Play Bull Market Still On In other news, a fellow market analyst with the username Titan of Crypto has recently stated that the Bitcoin bull market remains active amid bearish speculations following the latest price drops. Titan of Crypto has hinged their positive market insight on the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which has acted as a pivotal level in determining price direction in the current market cycle The analyst notes that as long as Bitcoin’s weekly candle holds above this level, the broader bull market continues to stay active. At press time, Bitcoin is valued at $106,800, reflecting a minor 0.40% decline in the past day. Meanwhile, daily trading volume is down by 61% and valued at $39.3 billion. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview
Long-term holders and whales continue to offload BTC as profit-taking intensifies and the four-year cycle narrative shows signs of weakening.
Roughly $12 billion in futures positions were wiped out on Friday, marking a major shift in market structure and potentially signaling a bottom.
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has explained how the latest Bitcoin selloff is different from the LUNA and FTX crashes of 2022. Bitcoin Supply In Profit Trend Is Structurally Different For The Latest Crash In a new post on X, Glassnode has discussed how the recent bearish action in BTC compares against some of the past crashes. The analytics firm has used the Percent Supply in Profit to make the comparison. This on-chain indicator measures, as its name suggests, the percentage of the total Bitcoin circulating supply that’s sitting on some net unrealized gain right now. Related Reading: BNB Shoots Up 6%: Is This Just The Start Of A Run To $2,400? The metric works by going through the transaction history of each token in circulation to see what price it was last transferred or sold at. If this previous transaction price was less than the latest spot price for any token, then it may be considered to be currently sitting on some profit. The Percent Supply in Profit adds up all coins of this type and determines what percentage of the supply they make up. Another indicator called the Percent Supply in Loss tracks the tokens of the opposite type. If one of these indicators is known, the other can simply be calculated by subtracting it from 100, since the total BTC supply must add up to 100%. Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Percent Supply in Profit over the last few years: As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin Percent Supply in Profit hit the 100% mark earlier in the month when the cryptocurrency’s price set its new all-time high (ATH). When the sharp selloff at the end of last week started, the indicator’s value was still well over the 90% mark, meaning the vast majority of investors were in the green. As such, the crash was more profit-driven, with losses mostly coming from the top buyers. During some of the big crashes of the 2022 bear market, however, the market conditions were quite different. In the LUNA and FTX collapses, the Percent Supply in Profit sat under 65%. In the chart, Glassnode has also highlighted the data of another metric: the Net Realized Profit/Loss, measuring whether profit-taking or loss-taking is dominant on the BTC network. From this indicator, it’s apparent that the aforementioned crashes saw deep negative values, implying a broad capitulation event took place. Related Reading: Bitcoin Direction Still Unclear: Analyst Says Watch These Key Charts The 3AC collapse occurred alongside a higher Percent Supply in Profit, but it also witnessed a notable spike in loss-taking. Based on this, Glassnode concludes that the latest Bitcoin crash was “a structurally different, leverage-driven event.” BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $110,400, down more than 11% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Despite increasing by 450,000 BTC since July, short-term holders remain below prior highs, signaling tempered market sentiment.
Bitcoin supply on exchanges has hit a new low for the first time in six years, providing a bullish outlook for BTC. This comes as the flagship crypto continues to hit new all-time highs (ATHs), with the $130,000 target now in sight. Bitcoin Supply On Exchanges Hit Six-Year Low Glassnode data shows that the Bitcoin supply on exchanges has fallen to a six-year low of around 2.8 million BTC. The last time the BTC balance on exchanges was this low was in June 2019, when the flagship crypto was trading at around $8,745. This development confirms that investors are accumulating Bitcoin at an unprecedented pace. CryptoQuant data also confirms this development, with the Bitcoin exchange reserve currently at 2.5 million BTC, even lower than what is shown on Glassnode’s dashboard. This is bullish for the BTC price, as such massive demand usually precedes a major supply squeeze. Notably, this comes amid an increased demand from institutional investors, with the BTC ETFs recording $3.2 billion in weekly inflows last week, their second-largest since their launch last year. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Still On Track To Hit $165,000, JPMorgan Analysts Reveal Timeline This comes as institutional investors move to Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset as part of the debasement trade during this period of uncertainty caused by the U.S. government shutdown. Thanks to the increased demand, BTC is already up 9% to start this month and rallied to multiple all-time highs amid the ‘Uptober’ rally. The Bitcoin price topped $126,000 for the first time ever yesterday and now looks on course to test the $130,000 milestone. With the massive demand from the BTC ETFs, there is the belief that the flagship crypto could hit this milestone this month. SoSo Value data shows that these funds took in $1.19 billion in net inflows yesterday, their highest daily inflow this year. BTC Could Break Above $130,000 Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto has suggested that Bitcoin is on track to make a new all-time high (ATH) above $130,000. He noted that BTC is testing the same trendline that rejected it a few weeks ago. However, this time around, the weekly MACD is crossing bullish, which could spark the rally above $130,000. His accompanying chart showed that a rally to as high as $140,000 was a possibility if the flagship crypto flips $130,000 into support. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s 2021 Playbook Shows The Final Price Target For This Bull Cycle Crypto analyst Mikybull Crypto also noted that Bitcoin is currently facing resistance around its current price level, making it a key level to watch. He added that a meaningful breakout above this level will send BTC to between $136,000 and $150,000. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $124,500, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin (BTC) has maintained a strong bullish performance over the past seven days, with the price gaining by approximately 12%. The crypto market leader rose to near $124,000 before experiencing a slight retracement, which has now forced prices to $122,070. With the market maintaining a consolidation pattern, prominent analyst Ali Martinez has shared some important price insights based on the MVRV pricing bands. Related Reading: Bitcoin, XRP Testing Key Resistances And Could Turn Messy Again – Here’s Why Holding Above $117k Could Propel BTC To $140k Next The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) metric measures how far Bitcoin’s market price deviates from its realized price, effectively assessing whether BTC is overvalued or undervalued relative to historical norms. The chart’s color-coded deviation bands visualize these extremes, with the +0.5σ ($117,644) band presently acting as an important threshold. In an X post on October 4, Maritnez explains the importance of this deviation band, stating that BTC’s ability to maintain price action above this mid-level band could precede large-scale bullish continuations. In contrast, the chart below suggests that a sustained price drop below the +0.5σ has often marked deeper corrections or mid-cycle resets. Notably, the upper red band, marked around $139,800 (+1σ), represents the next key resistance level and an area where traders are expected to start taking profits. However, a steady consolidation above +0.5σ is necessary to maintain bullish structural strength and provide the push for the next leg, which is expected to propel BTC beyond its current all-time high at $124,457. However, a price fall below this level could result in Bitcoin heading to the mean deviation band around $95,394. This would represent a 21.8% decline from present market prices and potentially the start of a bear market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price To $160k By Early 2026? Analyst Identifies 2 Conditions For Uptrend Bitcoin Realized Price Steady At $54,000 As Market Remains Healthy In other news, Glassnode MVRV pricing bands data reveal that the current BTC realized price is set around $54,348. For context, this metric reflects the average price at which investors last moved their BTC, effectively serving as a psychological support during market corrections. Notably, the current gap between the spot price, around $122,000, and the realized price underscores a healthy bull phase, with most holders sitting on substantial unrealized gains. As long as the realized price continues to rise steadily, it reinforces the underlying strength of the market and signals long-term confidence in an upward trajectory. At press time, Bitcoin is valued at $122,197 following a 0.3% decline in the past day. In tandem, the daily trading volume is down by 55.52% representing a fall in trading activity. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview
Bitcoin is presently valued in the $122,000 price region following an impressive price surge over the last week. Notably, bullish sentiments around the crypto market leader are presently strong as analysts speculate that another accumulation phase may have commenced. On-chain analytics page, Swissblock has now provided an in-depth analysis of the present market situation, with insights on potential drivers for profits or losses. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Nears Record Levels, Predictions Point To $140,000 By Early 2026 BTC Dip To $108,600 A Constructive Reset Earlier this month, Bitcoin registered a sharp decline from $117,000 to $108,600, sparking fears of a deeper correction. Although the market has since recovered, Swissblock explains that several on-chain indicators show the move was less a collapse and more a constructive reset. The notion of a “reset, not capitulation” is key as resets allow markets to flush out excess leverage, absorb weak-handed sellers, and create room for fresh demand. Swissblocks explains that this is exactly what occurred in the $114,000–$118,000 range, where many late buyers from August had been looking for an exit. Their supply was absorbed, clearing a cluster of resistance and unlocking the path to retest all-time highs. Notably, this price drop also highlighted the resilience of Bitcoin’s short-term holder (STH) base. Glassnode data shows the STH cost basis, or the average purchase price for recent buyers, sits at roughly $111,600. This level has now been defended five separate times since May, making it an important pivot point in the present market cycle. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breaks $119,000: Analyst Says $139,000 Could Be Next Long-Term Behavior Encourages Bullish Shift But Downside Risks Remain At the same time, Swissblock notes that long-term holders (LTHs) have noticeably slowed their rate of distribution. While they continue to sell, the pace is far less intense than in previous months. This cooling of supply pressure allows new participants to accumulate with less resistance. Historically, such phases have marked the transition from distribution to accumulation, creating structural stability and setting up bullish continuation. However, downside risks remain in that a resurgence of heavy selling could tip the balance and reintroduce fragility. However, as long as Bitcoin avoids slipping into a high-risk regime, the outlook favors resilience and upside potential. At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $122,052, reflecting a slight 1.47% gain in the last 24 hours. Daily trading activity has also surged by 19.28%, reinforcing the strength and momentum behind the ongoing market rally. With a market cap of $2.43 trillion, Bitcoin continues to rank as the world’s largest cryptocurrency and fifth-largest asset. Featured image from Flickr, chart from Tradingview
Wallet cohorts shift from distribution to accumulation as U.S. investors show renewed bullishness.
Cohort selling and long-term holder distribution add to ongoing pressure.
The total illiquid Bitcoin has reached a new high, providing a bullish outlook for the flagship crypto. This refers to the BTC supply that is unlikely to hit the open, given the long-term holding of the investors who own these coins. Bitcoin’s Illiquid Supply Hits New High Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin’s illiquid supply has reached a new high of 14.3 million BTC, marking over 72% of the flagship’s circulating supply. This supply is held by long-term holders (LTHs) who haven’t moved their coins in over seven years, highlighting a strong conviction in the flagship crypto. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Eyes Demand Zones In Higher Timeframes – Here’s The Target A large part of Bitcoin’s supply being in the hands of long-term holders is typically bullish, as it continuously reduces the amount of selling pressure on the coin. It could also lead to a potential supply shock, whereby demand outpaces supply. Asset manager Fidelity stated in a research report that this new demand for BTC, coupled with a fixed supply and decreasing issuance schedule, was what likely sparked the rally to a new all-time high (ATH) above $124,000. Fidelity further predicted that this upward trend for the Bitcoin price could continue in the years ahead. Meanwhile, Fidelity highlighted two distinct cohorts that satisfy the threshold of Bitcoin’s illiquid supply. The first is the BTC that was last moved seven or more years ago, while the second is public companies that hold at least 1,000 BTC. Michael Saylor’s Strategy leads the latter as his company currently holds 638,985 BTC, which accounts for over 3% of Bitcoin’s total supply. Strategy hasn’t sold any coin since it began accumulating in 2020. Fidelity predicts that the combined group will hold over six million Bitcoin by the end of 2025 or over 28% of the crypto’s total supply of 21 million. The asset manager noted that BTC’s illiquid supply has only decreased quarter-over-quarter once in its history. BTC’s Scarcity May Become Its “Focal Point” Fidelity predicts that over time, Bitcoin’s scarcity may become the focal point as more entities buy and hold BTC long term. They noted that the illiquid supply could rise drastically if nation-state adoption increases and the regulatory environment continues to evolve. Countries like the U.S. are already looking to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, which could create a massive supply shock. Related Reading: Crypto Founder Says Bitcoin Price At $100,000 Is Cheap, Reveals Real Cycle Peak Value On the other hand, Fidelity noted that there is the possibility of large amounts of Bitcoin’s illiquid supply being transferred. This could happen as long-term holders and public companies move to realize gains, possibly due to a significant price appreciation. The asset manager earlier mentioned that early signs of potential capitulation may already be emerging as 80,000 ancient BTC were sold in July 2025. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $115,600, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has explained how the Bitcoin price trend remains constructive as long as the asset trades above the short-term holder cost basis. Bitcoin Is Still Maintaining Above Short-Term Holder Realized Price In a new post on X, Glassnode has discussed about the Realized Price of the Bitcoin short-term holders. The “Realized Price” here refers to an indicator that keeps track of the cost basis of the average investor or address on the BTC network. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Score Sees Sharp Jump, No Longer Signals Bear Phase When the value of the metric is greater than BTC’s spot price, it means the investors as a whole are sitting on some net unrealized profit. On the other hand, it being under the asset’s value implies the overall market is in a state of net loss. In the context of the current topic, the Realized Price of a specific segment of the userbase is of interest: the short-term holders (STHs). This cohort includes the investors who purchased their tokens within the past 155 days. Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Realized Price for the STHs over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, Bitcoin retested the STH Realized Price at the start of the month and found support at it. Since then, the coin’s price has seen some recovery. This pattern of the STH Realized Price acting as a support barrier has actually been seen many times through this bull market. The reason behind the pattern may lie in investor psychology. Statistically, the longer an investor holds onto their coins, the less likely they become to sell them in the future. Since the STHs have a relatively low holding time, however, they don’t tend to be resolute, and thus, easily make panic moves when shifts occur in the market. The STHs can particularly be susceptible to panic when the cryptocurrency retests their break-even level. When the market mood is bullish, the reaction comes in the form of buying. This is because the STHs look at drawdowns to their cost basis as dip-buying opportunities. Similarly, STHs react to surges to their Realized Price by selling during bearish periods instead, fearing that the asset would decline again in the near future and send them back into a state of loss. Related Reading: Bitcoin Inflows In Last 1.5 Years Surpassed First 15 Years Combined: Data For now, Bitcoin is maintaining above the STH Realized Price. “As long as the price respects this level, the trend remains constructive,” notes the analytics firm. “Losing this support has coincided with phases of contraction or pullbacks.” BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $116,200, up almost 5% over the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Glassnode data shows all wallet groups are back in distribution mode, while regional trading patterns highlight Asia’s strength and Europe’s weakness.
Ethereum (ETH) stands out with one of the best price performances from last week as a general bullish sentiment swept across the crypto market. During this period, the dominant altcoin gained by 9.06% with its prices briefly entering the $4,700 price range. As the majority of investors hold green positions, on-chain data support price movements to remain bullish, albeit only for the short term. Related Reading: Ethereum Validator Slashing Puts Cardano’s Resilience In Focus – Here’s Why Ethereum MVRV Suggests Positive Momentum, Eyes On 2.4 Barrier Prominent crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci has recently shared a potentially impactful on-chain analysis on the Ethereum market. Using data from Glassnode, Kesmeci has observed that the Ethereum MVRV ratio has recently reached 1.97, edging closer to the historically significant 2.4 bearish threshold. For context, the Market Value To Realized Value ratio compares an asset’s current market value to the average price at which all coins last moved on-chain. A rising MVRV typically indicates growing unrealized profits among holders, while extreme levels can suggest overheated conditions where profit-taking may trigger corrections. Therefore, at 1.97, Ethereum’s MVRV suggests that investors are presently sitting on substantial unrealized profits. However, Kesmeci explains that the 2.40 zone is historically associated with market excess. This is because past cycles have shown that when the ratio surpasses 2.40, traders begin to take significant profits, resulting in potential price pullbacks. Interestingly, there is even a more critical threshold at 3.20, which Kesmeci has described as a “very, very hot” zone, i.e, levels where market euphoria has often peaked. This is seen during bull runs in 2017 and 2021 when the ratio spiked far above the 3.20 mark, coinciding with Ethereum’s dramatic price rallies and subsequent corrections. With the present MVRV at 1.97, Kesmeci’s analysis suggests Ethereum’s positive momentum remains in a safe zone, and market enthusiasts may yet anticipate further price gains for the time being. However, considering the present high levels of bullishness, investors should be on alert for a potential MVRV cross above 2.40, which is expected to induce significant selling pressure. Related Reading: Altcoins Flash Red Flag As Market Top Looms — Details Ethereum Market Overview At press time, Ethereum trades at $4,665, reflecting a minor decline of 0.2% in the past 24 hours. However, the prominent altcoin is posting significant gains on larger timeframes with price increases of 8.75% and 3.40% on the weekly and monthly charts, respectively. This performance suggests that Ethereum’s broader uptrend remains intact, even as it faces short-term fluctuations. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s daily trading volume has now declined by 14.42% indicating a temporary cooling in market activity, even as underlying momentum continues to support the asset’s upward trajectory. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview
Despite a 15% decline from August’s all-time high, illiquid holdings continue to grow.
On-chain data shows that Shiba Inu diamond hands are holding on to their coins despite the meme coin’s underperformance in recent times. This comes as SHIB bulls eye a new all-time high (ATH), with the meme coin potentially reaching $0.00009. Shiba Inu Holders Are Refusing To Sell Despite SHIB’s Underperformance Glassnode data shows that Shiba Inu’s holder retention rate is currently at 96%, having been on an uptrend over the last thirty days. The metric tracks the percentage of addresses that have held SHIB over the past 30 days. An uptick indicates that holders aren’t selling but instead even accumulating more coins. Related Reading: Shiba Inu Market Maker Is On The Move With Billions Of SHIB, Here’s What We Know Furthermore, Santiment data confirms that investors are still accumulating Shiba Inu, despite SHIB’s underperformance. Notably, the number of holders have continued to rise amid the price downtrend, and there are now 1.53 million SHIB holders. This comes as the meme coin looks to hold above the psychological $0.000010 price level. However, a negative for SHIB is the downtrend in the holdings of Shiba Inu whales. Santiment data shows these whales have continued to offload their coins amid the meme coin’s underperformance. These whales refer to those holding 10 million coins and above. Notably, they account for over 98% of the meme coin’s total supply. This also explains why there have been more exchange inflows than outflows, highlighting the fact that there is currently more supply than demand. On September 5, the exchange inflows were 73.73 billion SHIB while the outflows were 46.25 billion coins. Meanwhile, supply on exchanges remains sideways, with whales choosing to offload their coins and stay on the sidelines rather than actively buying the dip. SHIB Bulls Eye New ATH Shiba Inu bulls are eyeing a new all-time high for the meme coin despite its underperformance this year. Crypto analyst Javon Marks has also fuelled the bullish outlook for the SHIB price, predicting that it could record a rally of over 500%, which would bring it close to its current ATH of $0.00008845. Related Reading: Shiba Inu Price Forms Double Bottom At Demand Zone — What To Expect In an X post, Marks said that Shiba Inu has confirmed a bullish pattern in a regular bull divergence with the MACD Histogram. He explained that this suggests that the SHIB price is about to record a major bullish reversal to the upside, which can include a move of over 163% back into the $0.00003 range. The crypto analyst further remarked that this move may only be the start. He stated that the 163% move could be part of an over 570% run to the $0.000081 breakout target if the Shiba Inu price continues to hold well broken out of an older structure. At the time of writing, the Shiba Inu price is trading at around $0.00001230, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com
Ethereum’s recent movements have brought mixed emotions to the market, with a recent price crash to $4,200. While the market navigates these price swings, large holders of ETH, commonly referred to as ‘whales,’ have taken the opportunity to increase their positions significantly. Fresh data from on-chain analytic firms suggest that accumulation among these heavyweight investors is intensifying, even as Ethereum experiences market volatility. Ethereum Whale Accumulation Accelerates According to reports from Santiment, Ethereum’s recent climb toward the $4,500 mark is being largely fueled by accumulation from whales and sharks in the millionaire and small billionaire bracket. These wallets, holding between 1,000 and 100,000 ETH, have been steadily boosting their exposure. Over the last five months, their collective holdings have surged by a whopping 14%, a substantial shift in distribution that highlights renewed confidence in ETH’s long-term outlook. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Stuck In ‘Loading Phase’, What This Means For The Campaign For $5,000 Supporting this trend, Glassnode data reveals a divergence in whale activity throughout August. “Mega whales” reportedly holding more than 10,000 ETH were instrumental in driving Ethereum’s rally earlier in the month, with net inflows reaching an impressive 2.2 million ETH in 30 days. However, this group has since slowed down its activity, pausing further accumulation for now. In contrast, the large whales holding between 1,000 and 10,000 ETH have re-entered accumulation territory. After a period of distribution, this group added 411,000 ETH within the same timeframe, suggesting they see the current price levels as an attractive entry point. This shift in accumulation dynamics underscores the complex layers of market sentiment within the Ethereum investor bases. While mega whales have opted for caution after aggressively buying, the less prominent whales are taking up the slack, underscoring growing confidence despite broader volatility. ETH Slowly Recovers From $4,200 Price Crash The increase in whale holdings comes against the backdrop of Ethereum’s brief crash to $4,200. Despite the sudden drop, ETH has since managed to rebound above $4,380, displaying a level of resilience that continues to attract investors. CoinMarketCap data shows that the Ethereum price saw a slight increase of 1.41% in the last week and over 21% over the last month. Related Reading: Analyst Says 4-Year Cycle Ended In Dec 2024, But Ethereum Remains Insanely Bullish However, analysts remain cautious about the cryptocurrency’s near-term trajectory. Pseudonymous crypto market analyst Mrvik.eth has pointed out in a recent X social media post that Ethereum appears to be entering a minor distribution phase after losing the 1D 25EMA support level. While whales have helped in the altcoin’s recovery, he cautions that ETH could still face more turbulence before stabilizing further. According to the analyst, the broader altcoin market has also shown signs of weakness, amplifying concerns of an extended correction phase. With several altcoins already underperforming, he suggests that a minimum decline of 20% across the sector looks increasingly likely. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Glassnode data shows long-term holders growing their share of supply, challenging the narrative of widespread OG distribution.
Milestone reached on the seven day moving average highlights accelerating network growth and sets stage for a major difficulty adjustment.
Long-term bitcoin (BTC) holders have stepped up their liquidations in recent weeks, adding to bearish pressures in the market.
The on-chain metric is rising despite bitcoin falling to more than 12% below its all-time high.
Realized price levels highlight investor stress and looming psychological thresholds
Glassnode data shows profit-taking pressure intensifying as dormant coins move and ETFs enable capital rotation.