After a flash crash to $89,256 earlier this month, Bitcoin (BTC) made a swift recovery, reaching a new all-time high (ATH) of $108,786 on January 20. However, according to a crypto analyst, further upside could be limited until the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later this month. Bitcoin To Remain Range-Bound Until FOMC Meeting The world’s largest cryptocurrency has been on a bullish trajectory since November, fueled by Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election. Over the past three months, BTC has surged from approximately $67,000 to $104,536 at the time of writing, posting gains of over 50%. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Forecast Of $150,000 ‘Too Low’ Amid Rising Adoption, Crypto Trader Says However, crypto analyst Krillin predicts that BTC may continue to “chop” in the $100,000 to $110,000 range until the FOMC meeting. The analyst suggests that unless the Bank of Japan takes extraordinary policy measures, BTC is unlikely to break out of this range before the end of the month. At present, the CME FedWatch tool indicates a 99.5% probability that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will not cut interest rates at the upcoming meeting. Krillin expects a market dump to follow the anticipated hawkish meeting, which may be partially offset by a dovish-sounding press conference hinting at future quantitative easing (QE). For the uninitiated, QE is a monetary policy where central banks inject money into the economy by purchasing government bonds and other financial assets to lower interest rates and stimulate economic activity. This increased money supply can weaken fiat currencies, potentially driving investors toward assets like BTC, boosting its price as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. Krillin’s prediction aligns with a recent market observation which states that BTC profit-taking has declined by 93% from its December peak, and that the long-term holders are back in accumulation mode, preparing for the next leg up. However, how long the current consolidation phase may last is anyone’s guess. Meanwhile, crypto analyst Ali Martinez notes a sharp decline in capital inflows into the digital assets market, from $134 billion on December 10 to $43.37 billion. This low liquidity could result in sharp price swings, increasing the risk of liquidations for leverage traders. Will BTC Peak In Q2 2025? As BTC awaits the FOMC meeting to determine its next price trend, some analysts remain optimistic that the cryptocurrency could hit its market cycle peak in Q2 2025 as more institutions embrace the asset under favourable regulations. Related Reading: Bitcoin May Target $145,000 To $249,000 Under Trump Administration: Report For example, crypto analyst Dave The Wave recently predicted that BTC will likely peak in the summer of 2025. A report by Bitfinex supports this outlook, forecasting that Bitcoin could surge to $200,000 by mid-2025, albeit with minor corrections along the way. That said, Bitcoin must defend the $100,000 price level, as failure to do so could see the asset drop to as low as $97,500. At press time, BTC trades at $104,536, up 1.4% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, Charts from X and TradingView.com
“Higher-than-expected inflation could trigger equity market volatility, potentially dragging Bitcoin lower,” Bitfinex’ head of derivatives told Cointelegraph.
According to CryptoQuant’s latest weekly report, Bitcoin (BTC) could target a price range between $145,000 and $249,000 in 2025. The report cites rising institutional capital inflows and favorable crypto regulations as key drivers of Bitcoin’s potential price appreciation. Bitcoin To Benefit From Increasing Institutional Flows Following a flash crash to $89,256 earlier this week, Bitcoin is now striving to reclaim the $100,000 price level. A recent report by CryptoQuant predicts that BTC could peak at $249,000 this year, supported by multiple favorable factors, including a pro-crypto stance from the Donald Trump administration in the US. Related Reading: Bitcoin Primed For A Major Rebound Following ‘Final Capitulation,’ Analyst Predicts The report suggests BTC will reach “at least” $145,000 in 2025, with the influx of fresh capital serving as the primary catalyst for this bullish momentum. Drawing from historical analysis of capital inflows during previous market cycles, the report estimates that $520 billion in new capital could enter Bitcoin markets this year. It states: In the context of a positive regulatory environment, accommodative monetary policy, and cyclical patterns, it is reasonable to expect capital will continue to flow into Bitcoin in 2025. The following chart illustrates Bitcoin’s realized market cap since 2015. For those unfamiliar, Bitcoin’s realized market capitalization represents the cumulative USD value of each BTC at the last point it moved on-chain. If the market follows historical patterns, then the $520 billion in fresh capital inflows to BTC could become a reality. This fresh capital injection could push BTC price to anywhere between $145,000 to $249,000, since the expansion in BTC’s realized capitalization has a more-than-proportional effect on the digital asset’s market value and price. The report highlights institutional investors – particularly addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC – as the primary contributors to the market’s capital inflows. These addresses largely represent institutional-grade custodial services and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Notably, institutional participants increased their Bitcoin holdings by $127 billion in 2024, reflecting robust confidence in the cryptocurrency’s long-term potential. Additionally, the final year of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is often associated with significant price surges for the asset. All Eyes On US Federal Reserve While many crypto analysts and market commentators maintain an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin in 2025, some express caution regarding the potential impact of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) delayed interest rate cuts amid inflation concerns and subdued retail investor participation. Related Reading: Could Bitcoin Hit Its Peak In Summer 2025? Analysts Weigh In For instance, a recent report by 10x Research noted that delayed interest rate cuts by the Fed could dampen BTC’s bullish momentum. Further, data from CME FedWatch indicates a 97.3% probability that the Fed will leave the rates untouched during the Federal Open Market Committee meeting later this month. That said, asset manager Sygnum posits that BTC is likely to face demand shocks as more institutional investors embrace the emerging asset. At press time, BTC trades at $99,309, up 2.9% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, Charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com
Binance Open Interest surged approximately $500 million just two hours after the CPI results “brought smiles to the faces of crypto investors,” says an analyst.
Sustained outperformance may hinge on whether US President-elect Donald Trump implements pro-crypto policies once he takes office on Jan. 20.
A “power of 3” pattern popped up on Bitcoin’s chart, suggesting that prices above $100,000 will occur before President-elect Trump takes office.
Bitcoin futures markets may still be overheated, and a hotter-than-expected CPI could trigger further drawdowns, Steno said.
Risk assets trade weak as investment banks pare back Fed rate cuts in the wake of Friday's hotter-than-expected U.S. jobs report.
The upcoming US presidential inauguration could be a positive catalyst, the asset manager said.
In a recent blog post, serial crypto entrepreneur and commentator Arthur Hayes predicted that fresh liquidity injections into the US economy following President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration could spur a Bitcoin (BTC) rally in Q1 2025. Money Printing To Propel Bitcoin? Despite surging past $100,000 on January 6, BTC faced a sharp decline to as low as $94,543 earlier today, casting doubt on the so-called “Trump rally” that many expected to last until Trump’s inauguration on January 20. Related Reading: Bitcoin May Surge To $200,000 By Mid-2025 Amid ‘Mild’ Price Pullbacks: Report Recent market action aligns with Hayes’ December forecast, in which he warned of a potential “harrowing dump” in the cryptocurrency market around Trump’s inauguration. At the time, Hayes attributed this predicted sell-off to perceived regulatory disappointments from the incoming Trump administration. However, in his latest post, Hayes suggested that the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) plan to inject $612 billion of fresh liquidity into the economy could make up for the lack of regulatory progress and ignite new bullish momentum for BTC. The BitMex co-founder remarked: A letdown by team Trump on his proposed pro-crypto and pro-business legislation can be covered by an extremely positive dollar liquidity environment, an increase of up to $612 billion in the first quarter. Hayes explained that the Fed is expected to ramp up money printing after Trump’s inauguration, likely driving BTC and other digital assets to a local top before a subsequent pullback. He added that market disappointment over lagging crypto regulation under Trump’s administration would exacerbate the correction. The crypto entrepreneur advised selling towards the end of Q1 2025 and waiting for favorable liquidity conditions to return in Q3 2025. Once fresh liquidity enters the market, Hayes suggested it would be time for risk-seeking investors to “turn the risk dial to degen.” Opinion Split On BTC Price Action While Hayes anticipates a BTC rally later this quarter, other analysts and market commentators remain cautious. For instance, a recent report by 10x Research noted that the Fed’s delay in cutting interest rates could dampen BTC’s bullish momentum. Similarly, technical analysis suggests that BTC may be forming a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern on the weekly chart, raising fears of a drawdown to as low as $80,000. Yesterday’s failure to decisively reclaim the $100,000 price level has further unsettled the bulls. On the other hand, the CEO of Bitcoin mining firm MARA recently advocated a long-term “invest and forget” strategy for BTC. He suggested that a US strategic Bitcoin reserve could spark a global race among nations to accumulate BTC, driving up its price. Institutional interest in BTC is already on the rise, as evident from record inflows received by US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF). At press time, BTC trades at $95,154, down 3.6% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView.com
Mining stocks including WULF, BTDR, IREN and HUT dropped over 5%, while BTC holder medical devices firm Semler Scientific plunged 10%.
A recent report by digital assets research firm 10x Research highlights that the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) stance on interest rate cuts remains the most significant hurdle that could dampen the current Bitcoin (BTC) rally. Bitcoin’s Trump-Fuelled Rally At Risk Ahead Of FOMC Meeting Since pro-crypto Republican candidate Donald Trump secured victory in the November presidential election, Bitcoin has climbed an impressive 47%, rising from approximately $67,500 on November 4 to around $99,700 as of January 6. Related Reading: Metaplanet Bitcoin Reserves Grow With Fresh $61 Million Purchase While further gains are anticipated during the so-called “Trump rally” leading up to the January 20 inauguration, the momentum might stall ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later in January, says 10x Research’s Markus Thielen. Thielen predicts a “positive start” to January for BTC, followed by a slight dip before the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data release on January 15. A favorable CPI report could reignite optimism, potentially fueling another rally before Trump’s inauguration. However, Thielen cautions that bullish momentum may wane ahead of the FOMC meeting on January 29. Latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows that interest rates are likely to remain unchanged following the upcoming FOMC meeting. The tool currently predicts a 90.9% chance of interest rates remaining 425 and 450 basis points (BPS). Bitcoin’s decline of approximately 15% to $92,900 following the December 18 FOMC meeting underscores the Fed’s significant influence. This drop came after the Fed signaled only two rate cuts for 2025 instead of five, reinforcing Thielen’s view that the Fed’s decisions are the “primary risk” to BTC’s current bullish trajectory. Thielen stated: We anticipate lower inflation this year, though it may take some time for the Federal Reserve to recognize and respond to this shift formally. Thielen also cited institutional participation as a key factor influencing Bitcoin’s short-term price action, with metrics like stablecoin minting rates and crypto exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows serving as indicators of institutional interest. Institutional Interest In Bitcoin Continues To Rise Although US spot Bitcoin ETFs faced significant outflows at the end of December, fresh inflows have sparked optimism about rising institutional interest in the premier cryptocurrency. Data from SoSoValue notes that spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $908 million in inflows on January 3. Related Reading: Bitcoin May Face ‘Demand Shocks’ In 2025 Due To Growing Institutional Interest: Report In addition, several major BTC mining firms such as MARA and Hut 8 are bolstering their BTC reserves. Technology firms such as Canada-based video-sharing platform Rumble also recently unveiled a $20 million BTC treasury strategy. A separate report by cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex predicts Bitcoin could surge to $200,000 by mid-2025, despite minor price pullbacks. At press time, BTC trades at $101,555, up 3.7% in the last 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from 10x Research, CME FedWatch and Tradingview.com
Barr will continue to serve as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on December 18, global equity market indices have experienced a slight downturn. However, Bitcoin (BTC) has held steady, trading in the mid-$90,000 range at the time of writing. Bitcoin Steady Amid Speculations Of Slower Interest Rate Cuts After over a year of consecutive interest rate hikes, the […]
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