The surge in Warsh's prediction market odds followed Thursday reports that Trump is preparing to nominate him as the next Fed chair.
BTC fell deeper to nearly $81,000 late Thursday as Warsh's odds surged in betting markets.
Cryptocurrency markets have shown limited momentum this week, with both Bitcoin and Ethereum lingering in narrow price ranges. This price action comes on the heels of the US Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged. Traders and investors appeared to have taken a wait-and-see approach, leaving the largest digital assets stuck in consolidation without any breakout in either direction. Fed Policy And Market Expectations The Federal Reserve chose to hold benchmark interest rates at 3.50-3.75% in its latest policy meeting on Wedensday, a decision that was largely anticipated by markets. Still, this meeting marked the first pause in policy easing since July 2025, ending a stretch where the central bank cut rates three times last year while assessing how the economy was responding to President Donald Trump’s combative fiscal and trade policies. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Following The 2022 Fractal? Here Was The Previous Outcome By choosing to step back from further cuts, policymakers have now taken a more cautious stance before adjusting rates again. However, two governors dissented, preferring a quarter-point cut. Stephen Miran, as well as Christopher Waller, advocated for a 25-basis-point cut. The pause is continued caution about inflation and economic data, suggesting further easing won’t come without clear evidence of weaker economic conditions. In its statement, the Federal Reserve noted that the Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2% objective. This kind of higher-for-longer message can dampen risk appetite, and cryptocurrencies, which are viewed as risk assets, are feeling the impact. Bitcoin And Ethereum Locked In Tight Consolidation Recent price action across Bitcoin and Ethereum continues to indicate a market stuck in indecision. Bitcoin briefly tested the psychological $90,000 level but failed to establish acceptance above it, slipping back into a narrow range around $87,000 to $89,000. Related Reading: Analyst Says You’re Not Bullish Enough On Ethereum – What Does He Mean? A recent rejection at $90,000 has limited upside follow-through and has kept both buyers and sellers cautious, as neither side has been able to take control. This lack of momentum is also reflected in steady outflows from Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which witnessed $28.1 million in outflows in the past 24 hours. Ethereum has mirrored Bitcoin’s behavior almost step for step. The price broke above $3,000 very briefly in the past 24 hours, but it has since rejected and is back to trading around $2,900. This movement puts it oscillating within a tight band without delivering a decisive breakout or breakdown. Interestingly, Spot Ethereum ETFs, on the other hand, had $28.10 million in inflows in the past 24 hours. Although on-chain indicators like increasing wallet participation show underlying engagement, those signals have yet to translate into a sustained bullish momentum. Profit-taking near the $3,000 resistance and uncertainty have continued to restrict short-term gains. As it stands, both Bitcoin and Ethereum seem likely to remain confined to their current ranges until a stronger catalyst emerges. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com
The January Fed rate decision capped a sharp reversal in easing expectations, likely among the reasons for crypto's poor price performance.
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
As Trump mulls the next leader of the U.S. Federal Reserve, the BlackRock executive has caught a surge of online wagers, and he'd bring a pro-crypto view.
As Trump mulls the next leader of the U.S. Federal Reserve, the BlackRock executive has caught a surge of online wagers, and he'd bring a pro-crypto view.
The largest cryptocurrency is now facing a key "resistance" zone at $93,500-$95,000, which has capped its price for nearly two months.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index came in roughly in line with expectations as market participants largely expects the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at the January meeting.
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi are shrugging off the idea that a criminal investigation into the chair of the Federal Reserve would have him removed from his role early.
"My base case is that we can stay here for some period of time," Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack told the WSJ.
The Federal Reserve is seeking public feedback on a proposed “payment account” — informally dubbed a “skinny master account."
The U.S. central bank has been mulling the idea of a "skinny" version of master accounts for firms that want payments access without the deeper Fed demands.
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
The Fed withdrew guidance that blocked banks from experimenting with 'novel' crypto-related activities, like issuing stablecoins.
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
There's a major difference between ensuring liquidity in short-term rate markets and the quantitative easing that juiced risk assets after during Covid and after 2008 financial panic.
On decentralized prediction markets platform Polymarket, Waller currently has a 15% chance of being nominated as the next chair.
Powell’s decisions as Fed chair have continued to have a massive impact on bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency markets.
The Wyoming-based cryptocurrency bank argued that the three-judge panel undermined state banking authorities, raising “serious constitutional questions”
Hassett is perceived as dovish and likely to support Trump's calls for significant interest rate cuts to boost economic growth.
The Bitcoin’s behavior around US Federal Reserve announcements has become one of the most consistent market patterns of the year. After every FOMC update, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has reacted with a noticeable downside move, underscoring how closely the asset is now tied to shifting interest-rate expectations and broader macro sentiment. What Future FOMC Meetings Could Mean For Bitcoin In an X post, analyst CryptoMichNL has mentioned that the Federal Reserve (FED) is preparing to update the printer from 2021 liquidity settings toward a more supportive 2025 stance. However, this doesn’t mean it will have an immediate impact on the markets, as these things take time. As a result of the update, Bitcoin has dropped after every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in 2025, but these moves are primarily aimed at flushing out longs through high liquidations. Related Reading: Bitcoin In An Opportunity Zone? Hash Ribbons Flash New Buy Signal According to the expert, the actual move on the markets and the direction should come in the next 1-2 weeks, which would give a better outlook going into 2026. The bullish trend has remained intact, and the thesis is still valid. However, BTC shouldn’t break the lows during the FOMC flush. Instead, it should break the $92,000 resistance zone to retest the $100,000 level. Bitcoin is still moving in a choppy pattern, driven by illiquid order books and fast moves in both directions. CryptoMichNL has also highlighted that BTC is still in for a new upward breakout in the coming days to weeks. Despite the volatility, BTC has continued to form higher lows, which is a clear sign that an upward structure is building. CryptoMichNL noted that, as the price doesn’t break down anymore, the heavy correction in the market was highly manipulated and not organic, which is very natural for the market to return to normal. Why Bitcoin Market Structure Remains Intact Despite Deep Pullback Bitcoin has not proven to be any different from the cycle. A full-time crypto trader and investor, Daan Crypto Trades, pointed out that the good initial bounce is right off the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, which is taken from the entire cycle move. Realistically, that was the lowest the price could go without breaking the broader weekly market structure. Related Reading: Did 2025 Mark A Bear Market For Bitcoin? Predictions Point To A $150,000 Rally In 2026 According to Daan, the invalidation is clearly the higher-timeframe outlook, and the November lows would become a very uncomfortable place for the bulls. As the year comes to an end, a lot of the 4-year cycle selling should also be diminishing. Meanwhile, Q1 2026 is shaping up to be extremely important as it will likely reveal where the BTC cycle will move next. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Crypto markets saw a modest lift after the US Federal Reserve made another move on rates, and traders are watching for a clearer follow-through. According to reports, the Fed has carried out three consecutive interest rate cuts totaling 0.75% from September to December. The move was widely expected. Still, market responses have been mixed and somewhat choppy. Related Reading: American Bitcoin Makes Big Buy, Adds 416 BTC To Its Stack Fed Moves And Market Takeaway According to CoinEx chief analyst Jeff Ko, much of the Fed’s action was already priced in, and the updated dot plot leaned a bit more hawkish than some had hoped. Ko pointed to $40 billion in short-term Treasury purchases as a technical step to ease liquidity and lower short-term rates, not as a broad stimulus program. Markets took the measures as mildly positive. US stocks rose, and that helped Bitcoin find some footing after an early dip. Santiment And The Short-Term Reaction Based on reports from onchain analytics firm Santiment, each cut has prompted a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” move where initial optimism is followed by short selling. ???????? The US Fed made three strategic cuts over the past 3 months, resulting in a total of an 0.75% reduction to interest rates. 1⃣ September 17, 2025: Fed lowered the target range to 4.00 %–4.25 % (from 4.25 %+) at the 16–17 Sep meeting. 2⃣ October 29, 2025: Fed cut the rate to… pic.twitter.com/X6DWypvq5t — Santiment (@santimentfeed) December 11, 2025 Cuts are seen as bullish for crypto over the long haul, yet they have triggered brief pullbacks in practice. Santiment adds that a small wave of FUD or retail selling often signals that the mild post-cut downswing is finished and a bounce may follow once things calm down. Technical Levels Traders Are Watching Bitcoin was volatile in the aftermath. It fell under $90,000 then popped to $93,500 on Coinbase before settling near $92,300 at the time of reporting. Key resistance sits between $97,000 and $108,000. On the daily chart, BTC remains inside a small rising channel that sits within a larger downtrend, and technical traders note that a MACD histogram is approaching a positive crossover — a sign some see as possible renewed momentum. ETF activity has been tepid, with only $219 million in net inflows since late November, which keeps some investors cautious. Related Reading: Is Dogecoin Waking Up? Critical On-Chain Metric Explodes Higher Dollar Weakness And Equity Signals A weaker dollar has been part of the backdrop; the DXY index fell to 98.36 and is showing bearish momentum on its own MACD. Nasdaq’s move back above its 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages helped lift risk assets briefly, and that has supported Bitcoin’s rebound attempts. Yet correlation with equities remains uneven — losses in stocks tend to hit Bitcoin harder than gains help it, creating an asymmetric risk profile for traders. Featured image from Impossible Images, chart from TradingView
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
Bitcoin’s price action in the past two weeks has opened a new phase of stress among traders, with on-chain data showing realized losses climbing to heights last observed in 2022. Glassnode’s latest Week-On-Chain report shows Bitcoin is trading above an important cost-basis level but is also visibly straining under intensified loss realization, fading demand and weakening liquidity, which has placed short-term investors in a difficult position. Realized Losses Return To Deep Territory According to Glassnode, realized losses among Bitcoin entities have risen massively, and is now almost at the same magnitudes recorded during the deep retracements of the 2022 bear market. Particularly, the Relative Unrealized Loss (30D-SMA) has climbed to 4.4% after nearly two years below 2%. Related Reading: The Current Bitcoin Price Pump Will End In A Crash – Here’s When To Start Selling The escalation in loss realization reflects how the recent drawdown below $90,000 has forced a large number of market participants to offload coins at prices below their acquisition cost. This, in turn, has disrupted the gradual improvement in profitability seen earlier in the year. Bitcoin’s recent bounce from the November 22 low to above $92,000 hasn’t eased the strain on holders. Glassnode noted that entities are still locking in losses at an increasing pace, with the 30-day average of realized losses now at around $555 million per day. These conditions mean that investors are losing confidence in short-term upside prospects for Bitcoin and choose to reduce exposure, even at unfavorable prices. Therefore, the report noted that resolving it will require a renewed wave of liquidity and demand to rebuild confidence. Glassnode also highlights a sharp rise in profit-taking among long-term holders, whose realized gains have climbed to roughly $1 billion per day and briefly set a new record above $1.3 billion. Even with this elevated level of distribution, Bitcoin is currently positioned just above the True Market Mean, which is a long-standing cost-basis benchmark that serves as a point of structural support. The recent price downturn below $90,000 has pushed this zone close to its limits, but the glimpse of demand reflected around it suggests that price could revisit the 0.75 quantile near $95,000 and possibly approach the short-term holder cost basis as well. Spot ETF, Futures, And Options Markets Indicate Weakness Glassnode’s report points to persistent softness across ETF flows, which have cooled notably after a period of strong inflows earlier in the year. This slowdown represents a reduction in one of the largest and most immediate sources of buy-side liquidity for Bitcoin. Related Reading: Why Is The Bitcoin Price Down Again? Analyst Calls Out Trading Desk For Triggering Crashes Spot market liquidity has also faded, with order books on major exchanges near the lower bound of their 30-day range. This has created an environment where trading activity has weakened through November and into December, and fewer liquidity flows are available to absorb volatility or sustain directional moves. Derivatives positioning reflects similar caution, with funding rates pinned near neutral. Futures open interest has also been subdued and has failed to meaningfully rebuild since the breakdown below $90,000. Across all major venues, the tone is the same: liquidity is lighter, sentiment is softening, and participants are leaning defensive rather than pursuing short-term rallies. The attention is now on how Bitcoin will respond in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Traders are shifting expectations, with futures markets pricing a nearly 40% chance of another cut by March despite the Fed’s cautious tone.
Despite a noticeable cooldown in trading volumes, Bitcoin’s underlying market structure has continued to strengthen. The price action has stabilized within a narrow range as long-term holders maintain firm conviction. As more BTC flows into cold storage and supply on exchanges tightens, the market is transitioning from hype-driven swings to steady structural support. How The Price Compression Builds Energy For A Larger Move CIO and founder of MNFund and MNCapital, CryptoMichNL, emphasized that Bitcoin shares a strong correlation with the Nasdaq. While Nasdaq continues to show steady resilience, BTC has stalled behind. This mismatch creates a mispricing and market divergence, which is why the path toward $100,000 remains wide open and why the 4-year cycle thesis doesn’t hold up. Related Reading: Did 2025 Mark A Bear Market For Bitcoin? Predictions Point To A $150,000 Rally In 2026 Recently, BTC saw a massive correction, dropping from $115,000 to $80,000 in just two weeks. During that same liquidation period, what LVisserLabs calls the rotation between Pure Vol vs. Pure Profitability or Beta vs. Quality has fallen sharply. Beta here refers to high-volatility, high-beta stocks, which are essentially tech stocks that drive the markets. Meanwhile, Quality means more risk-off assets, including high-quality, profitable, and stable companies. Currently, BTC has stalled after the sell-off, and the Beta assets have recovered substantially, implying that the stocks have inverted their loss with the big drop and are now grinding upwards, signaling that risk-on appetite is clearly back. With this kind of structural divergence, it’s likely that in the coming weeks or months, BTC will grind upward to $110,000 and $115,000 levels, reversing the drop as the entire correction was a little dubious. CryptoMichNL advised that instead of relying on a time-based sounding the 4-year cycle assumption, it is better to focus on the charts and macro relationships that directly influence BTC price. On-Chain Activity Shows Clear Confidence From Big Money The ambassador of StandXOfficial and the KOL of Binance, who is also an advisor at KOLsAgency, Investor Ucan, has highlighted that the evidence of Bitcoin’s latest upward move is already on-chain. The last six hours have revealed a clear surge of institutional demand. On-chain data shows that Binance purchased 7,298 BTC, Coinbase bought 1,362 BTC, Wintermute bought 2,174 BTC, BlacRock bought 1,362 BTC, and an unknown whale bought 6,192 BTC. In total, 20,438 BTC were purchased in just six hours, valued at approximately $1.9 billion. Related Reading: Bitcoin Settles In Consolidation Zone – Levels To Watch Ucan noted that the timing of this purchase is what stands out. These inflows hit the market hours before the Federal Reserve’s upcoming employment data was released. Institutional is clearly expecting a supportive outcome. A positive print refers to easing expectations and fresh liquidity on the horizon. Retail traders are reacting, and the institutions are anticipating early. If the Fed confirms what these flows imply, today’s buying won’t look like simple momentum, but preparation. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
The anticipated move comes as policymakers are still operating without several key economic data releases that remain delayed or suspended due to the U.S. government shutdown.
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.