U.S. ETFs hit $12.19 trillion in assets under management with $799 billion in inflows this year, raising questions over whether the Fed’s influence on markets is fading.
Markets brace for a widely expected Fed rate cut on Sept. 17, with history suggesting near-term turbulence but longer-term gains for risk assets and gold.
If you’re following the markets, you’ll know the Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates next week to stimulate a lagging economy. While most crypto traders are jumping for joy at the thought of fresh liquidity entering the system, not everybody’s happy. The upcoming rate cut, according to some, could have a catastrophic effect […]
The post Is the Fed’s upcoming rate cut a ‘huge mistake’? appeared first on CryptoSlate.
US spending surged to $689B in August as gold hit fresh highs near $3,670 and bitcoin crossed $115K.
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
The US Federal Reserve prepares to announce its latest decision on interest rates. This highly anticipated event has the potential to act as a powerful catalyst for the Bitcoin market, with many analysts and investors speculating that a rate cut could trigger a significant breakout. How A Rate Cut Could Unleash The Next Bitcoin Bull Run The global financial community is entering a crucial week. According to a post on X by crypto commentator Thomas Lauder, in 7 days, the US Federal Reserve will decide whether to cut dollar interest rates, a move that could have far-reaching effects on both traditional finance and crypto markets. Related Reading: $375,000 Bitcoin? Market Veteran Says It’s Closer Than You Think This rate cut could give a strong boost to the price of Bitcoin and other financial assets. Lauder explains that a Federal Reserve interest rate cut would have a direct impact on financial markets by lowering the cost of borrowing and injecting liquidity into the market, a dynamic that has historically benefited Bitcoin and other risk assets. The market’s anticipation is high, as evidenced by predictions on Polymarket, where 83% of bettors are forecasting a 25 basis point cut, and another 14% are betting on an even larger reduction. In the meantime, the market operators are positioning themselves ahead of the news. As a result, Lauder predicts that Bitcoin will experience days of high volatility leading up to the announcement. Why Companies Are Accumulating Bitcoin Relentlessly While the other analyst believes that the coming days will likely see high volatility for BTC as the Fed announces the interest rate cut, notable institutional accumulation is still ongoing. MikeWMunz has explained why certain companies are accumulating Bitcoin at a feverish pace even as their share prices stall. These companies are not weak in lettuce hands, and they are capable of delaying the dopamine hits for when it’s appropriate. Related Reading: Corporate Bitcoin Allocation Climbs As Companies Invest 22% Of Profits: Study However, many of these companies are set to be included in the largest indexes, ensuring they receive steady passive flows as Bitcoin executes its next parabolic move upward. MikeWMunz describes this as a lightning in a bottle, which is a perfect moment of strategy, market mechanics, and timing. Furthermore, he pointed out that the shortsighted views and lack of vision of many investors prevent them from understanding this inevitable outcome. The groundwork and foundation for a new financial era is being built right now, and the lack of patience and inability to see this bigger picture is what holds back many investors from realizing the full potential of this shift. “This does not apply to the leaders of these companies, who are pioneering the ships in their respective markets,” he mentioned.” Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin climbed past $114,000 this week, pushing markets higher after a surprisingly weak reading on producer prices. According to reports, the move followed a pullback in US PPI that many traders read as a sign the Federal Reserve may be able to start cutting rates. Related Reading: Institutional Adoption Rises: 21X Brings Chainlink Into Europe’s Tokenized Securities Market The jump was quick and loud on price charts. It caught the attention of both retail traders and bigger money. Cooling Inflation Spurs Rate Cut Bets According to published data, US Producer Price Index (PPI) fell to about 2.6% year-on-year, while core PPI — which strips out food and energy — came in near 2.8%. On a monthly basis, PPI showed a drop, one of the first such moves since March 2024. Based on reports, those weaker numbers fed hopes that the Fed could ease policy sooner rather than later, and markets reacted accordingly. Bitcoin’s Rally And Broader Crypto Moves Bitcoin hit roughly $113,850 on some exchanges before trading above $114,000, and Ethereum climbed past $4,400 as part of the same upswing. Reports have disclosed that institutional flows and stablecoin liquidity helped lift prices, and that investor positioning shifted toward risk assets after the data. Traders were watching support around $112,500-$113,000 and resistance near $115,000-$115,500 as the session progressed. Momentum was strong, but some caution remained. Bitcoin’s Technical Levels And Flows Market technicians pointed to clear levels. If support near $112,500 breaks, it could open the way to a short pullback. If $115,500 is cleared, buyers may push for higher ranges. At the same time, some on-chain indicators showed rising transfers into exchanges, a sign that profit taking could be ahead. Reports have disclosed that both demand and supply signals will be watched closely by desks and algorithmic funds. What Could Slow This Move While PPI cooled, other data could change the picture. Consumer inflation and jobs figures are still to be watched, and those reports can keep the Fed on guard. Rate cuts are now being priced in by some traders, perhaps as soon as September, but that outcome is not guaranteed. If consumer prices re-accelerate or job strength stays high, easing could be delayed and markets may retrace gains. Related Reading: Tighter Premiums Put Crypto Treasuries On Risky Road, According To NYDIG What Investors Should Watch Next According to market commentators, the key near-term items are the upcoming CPI release, monthly jobs data, and Fed commentary. Also important are flows into spot products and the dollar’s direction — a firmer dollar would likely pressure risky assets. Traders will also keep an eye on how quickly liquidity moves from stablecoins into BTC and ETH, and whether profit-taking appears at the big technical thresholds already mentioned. Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView
The market expects a 25 basis point cut, with a 91% probability according to the CME's FedWatch Tool.
This week is shaping up to be critical for the broader crypto market, marked by a prevailing sense of caution as prices consolidate ahead of their next direction. According to market analysis firm Bull Theory, the forthcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is on the horizon, and its outcome will largely hinge on the economic data released this week. Stability Or Further Pressure For Crypto? The Federal Reserve (Fed) has two primary mandates: to maintain inflation around 2% and to support employment levels. Currently, the landscape appears challenging, with rising unemployment juxtaposed against persistent inflation. Related Reading: Solana Rally in Sight? Traders Eye Breakout That Could Push SOL Toward $250 On September 9, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will revise the previous year’s non-farm payrolls (NFP). This annual revision often reveals downward adjustments, indicating weaker job growth than initially reported. For instance, last August, the revision was significantly lower than expected, with a downward adjustment of 818,000 jobs—the second worst in US history. This prompted the Fed to implement a more aggressive 50 basis point cut instead of the anticipated 25 basis points. If this repeats, it could raise the likelihood of another substantial cut, which would be viewed positively for liquidity and, by extension, the crypto market. The Producer Price Index (PPI) report, scheduled for September 10, will provide insights into inflation at the business level. A PPI reading that meets or falls below expectations is likely to boost market sentiment, while a higher-than-expected figure could dampen it. Last month, the PPI was unexpectedly high, coinciding with Bitcoin’s (BTC) peak near $124,000 before it began to cool. A softer PPI this time could grant the Fed more leeway to implement cuts, alleviating pressure on cryptocurrencies. Three Scenarios For Fed’s Upcoming Rate Cut Decision Following that, on September 11, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key inflation gauge, will be released. If CPI readings come in hotter than anticipated, it complicates the Fed’s decision-making process. For the crypto market, a CPI result at or below expectations would be the most favorable outcome. Also on September 11, initial jobless claims will be reported, indicating how many individuals filed for unemployment benefits last week. A higher-than-expected figure would signal weakness in the job market, thereby increasing pressure on the Fed to act. As all eyes turn to the FOMC meeting, the data collected this week will be instrumental in determining whether the Fed opts for a 25 basis point or a more aggressive 50 basis point cut. Related Reading: Dogecoin Leads Altcoin Rally Amid ETF Speculation: Is $1.50 the Next Big Target? There are three potential scenarios that could unfold. The first, a larger cut of 50 basis points, is likely if the NFP is sharply revised downwards, CPI and PPI data are soft, and jobless claims are high. This scenario, which indicates a rapidly weakening economy, could provide robust liquidity support for the market. However, the Bull Theory estimates this outcome has a 20%-25% probability. The second scenario, a standard cut of 25 basis points, appears more probable, with a 70%-74% chance. This would occur if NFP revisions are moderately weaker, CPI is slightly elevated, and jobless claims remain steady. While this would still be positive for crypto, it may not yield the same liquidity burst as a 50 basis point cut. Lastly, a scenario where the Fed pauses or delays changes is also possible. The firm asserts that if NFP data holds steady, CPI readings are hotter than expected, and jobless claims decrease, the Fed might take a more cautious approach, potentially leading to short-term pressures and further consolidation for Bitcoin and altcoins. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price is currently at a critical juncture, sitting right on top of the Bull Market Support Band. Throughout past bull cycles, this band has historically served as a crucial support level, with price retesting it during corrections and bouncing off it to continue its upward trend. Why This Level Matters For Bitcoin Uptrend In an X post, full-time crypto trader and investor, Daan Crypto Trades, has pointed out that Bitcoin is currently sitting directly on top of the Bull Market Support Band. This level has long been regarded as one of the most reliable high-timeframe momentum indicators. Related Reading: Bitcoin Holds Key Support Amid Gravestone Doji – $120,000 Hangs In Balance Daan Crypto Trades noted that while Bitcoin has seen short-term consolidation at or even slightly below this band, it has never experienced a prolonged detachment for more than a week or two during a bull market. The broader market structure remains intact as long as Bitcoin continues to print higher highs and higher lows on the larger timeframe. However, any subsequent dips that occur while this structural integrity is maintained are generally seen as areas of interest and potential buying opportunities for investors. The Role Of Liquidity In Driving Bitcoin’s Next Move Bitcoin is showing the first bearish divergence against the Global M2 Money supply since the cycle lows began, and signaling a potential slowdown in momentum. According to Saint Pump, a market expert, a one-month liquidity pullback is expected in late September, coinciding with the Federal Reserve (Fed) anticipated rate cut amid job weakness. Related Reading: Analyst Says All Bitcoin Price Uptrend Are Duds Unless This Happens This confluence of a bearish technical signal and a macroeconomic liquidity event suggests that BTC’s recent poor price action since July and divergence with global liquidity will continue leading to a period of choppy price action. In addition, there will be volatile trading until global liquidity conditions improve in late October. Adding to the short-term pressure, October also marks the expected end of the four-year cycle, which historically brings additional selling activity. Despite these headwinds, no major cycle top or euphoria signals are evident. Saint Pump noted that the Trump Administration may unleash a monetary bazooka through a Fed takeover to stimulate the economy ahead of the midterms. As a result, this cycle could extend into late 2026, until Inflation fears resurface once the Fed overdoes it due to political pressures. From a technical perspective, the best bid scenario in a sell-off lies between $93,000 and $98,000, aligning with a retest of the weekly 55 Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which has sustained the bull trend since last year. While short-term volatility is expected, the broader uptrend remains structurally sound. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
October VIX futures are trading at an extreme premium to September futures, pointing to post-Fed turbulence.
Weaker payroll figures and improving U.S. rate cut prospects failed to bolster sentiment, Head of Research James Butterfill said.
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
Soft U.S. jobs numbers released Friday cemented the case for an imminent Fed rate cut and provided what turned out to be only a brief jolt higher to crypto markets.
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
The conference will take place Oct. 21 and bring together a range of parties to discuss how to innovate and improve the payments system.
September has historically been bitcoin's weakest month, with fresh macro risks threatening a downside squeeze, according to K33.
Dalio sees no systemic risk from stablecoins but warns debt, politics, climate, and AI will spark major upheaval within five years.
CME open interest and futures premiums have slumped this year. Looser monetary policy may change the picture.
Ethereum-based funds led the inflows with another $1.4 billion, while Bitcoin investment products added $748 million.
Alex Krüger says recent liquidations and scary charts could set up a bullish rebound, though conviction trends may wait until after the Fed’s Sept. 17 decision.
Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook sued President Trump after he tried to fire her from the central bank, according to news reports.
A significant plunge in the crypto market has sent shockwaves across the industry over the last 24 hours, leaving a trail of liquidations in its wake. Around 200,000 traders were forced out of their positions as Bitcoin plunged to a seven-week low, wiping out more than $900 million in liquidations over a single day. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Slowed By Old-School Whales, Analyst Warns According to CoinGlass, most of those losses came from long bets that could not weather the slide. Liquidations Hit Retail Traders Reports have disclosed that a single large sale helped set off the cascade. Selling pressure intensified as a large holder offloaded 24,000 BTC, triggering a wave of liquidations, said Rachael Lucas, a crypto analyst at BTC Markets. On Coinbase, Bitcoin briefly fell below $109,000 — its weakest level since July 9. Market participants felt the shock fast; traders who were long were the ones most exposed. Macro Signals And Market Reaction A recent hint from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole about potential interest rate cuts changed how some investors priced risk. Since August 14, when Bitcoin reached an all-time high just over $124,000, the asset has corrected by over 10%. Based on data, the drop since Powell’s speech is about 7%. The single-day move was measured at close to 3% decline for Bitcoin, and total crypto market value slipped back below $4 trillion to about $3.83 trillion as almost $200 billion flowed out of the space. Ether Is Holding Up Ether traded near $4,340 and, for now, looks steadier than Bitcoin. It did fall, but it did not breach last week’s low. Institutional interest in Ether remains a talking point. According to Lucas, institutions continue to focus on Ethereum, even as traders reassess risk across smaller coins. Related Reading: Solana Extends Streak, Outshines Ethereum in DEX Volume – Details Altcoins Took Bigger Hits Many smaller tokens fell harder than the majors. Solana, Dogecoin, Cardano, Chainlink, and Sui were among the worst hit. That pushed losses beyond the headline Bitcoin numbers and left traders in altcoin-heavy positions nursing larger drawdowns. Thin weekend liquidity served to enhance the price gyrations, making the action more extreme than it would have been on a more active trading day. September’s Track Record And Outlook There is also a historical component to the tale. September has a history of strong pullbacks in bull markets, with strong corrections in 2017 and 2021. Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView
Powell’s Jackson Hole speech showed how the Fed is weighing inflation against jobs. That balance could shape policy in the fourth quarter of 2025 and beyond.
Prominent analytics firm Glassnode has shared new on-chain insights into the Bitcoin market, pointing to the next major support zone amid a euphoric market mood on Friday. The world’s leading cryptocurrency briefly surged to above $117,000 after comments from US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled a possible shift away from the central bank’s long-standing hawkish stance. Related Reading: When Will Bitcoin Bottom Out? This Could Be The Signal To Watch Bitcoin’s Crucial Defense Level At $104,000–$108,000: Data In an X post on August 22, Glassnode explains that Bitcoin’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) suggests the $104,000–$108,000 range has emerged as a critical support zone, backed by significant investor activity. Notably, more than 1.15 million BTC were accumulated within this price band over the past year, creating a dense cluster of realized prices that may act as a strong floor for the market. For context, the URPD model tracks the distribution of Bitcoin’s supply across different price levels, effectively highlighting where coins last changed hands. Heavy accumulation within a narrow range often translates into robust support, as holders who bought at those levels are less likely to sell at a loss. Currently, Bitcoin is trading near $116,000 after a slight retracement following the price rebound on Friday. In the event of a further correction, prices are likely to retest the $104,000–$108,000 range, which currently holds the largest cluster of realized prices below the present spot market price, underscoring the importance of this support zone in the short-term outlook. Related Reading: Crypto Strategist Sounds The Alarm: Bitcoin Surge Could Clash With Fed Reserve Goals Powell’s Policy Shift Drives $300 Million To Bitcoin Futures Market In other developments, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost reported a sharp surge in Bitcoin derivatives activity after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at a potential shift in monetary policy during his speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in Wyoming. Powell suggested that the Fed may be preparing to adjust its stance, citing the economy’s baseline outlook and evolving risk dynamics. The Fed Chair said: Our policy rate is now 100 basis points closer to neutral than it was a year ago, and the stability of the unemployment rate and other labor market measures allows us to proceed carefully as we consider changes to our policy stance. Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance. Within 15 minutes of this speech, Darkfost noted that nearly $300 million flowed into Bitcoin futures products, pushing Binance’s BTC Open Interest to about $13.3 billion. The spike reflects investors’ positioning for potential interest rate cuts at the upcoming FOMC meeting in September after Powell’s hint of potential easing of the Fed’s monetary policy. At press time, Bitcoin trades at $115,850, reflecting a price gain of 2.25% in the past 24 hours despite recent gains. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview
Bitcoin slipped on Friday after a brief run higher, and some market watchers say the move could force a policymaker response. Based on reports, Bitcoin was trading at about $113,240, down 3.4%, on August 22, 2025. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Next Stop For 2025? $175,000, According To SOL Strategies Boss Crypto Analyst Flags Inflation Risk According to Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone, the simultaneous rise in equities, Treasury yields, gold and Bitcoin looks unstable and could push inflation higher if it continues. He warned that stronger risk-asset gains might nudge the Federal Reserve toward tighter policy, not easing, which would be the opposite of calls from US President Donald Trump to loosen policy this year. Reports have noted that Bitcoin fell from a local high of $120,050 to roughly $112,990, a decline of about 6% since last Friday, and that the crypto lost just over $1,000 in a few hours during the move. A Lot May Be Riding on Bitcoin/Gold Going Up – The simultaneous rise in equities, Treasury bond yields, Bitcoin and gold appears unsustainable, and at a minimum due for some volatility post-summer doldrums. A scenario my graphic highlights is that if risk assets keep rising,… pic.twitter.com/7xCLbw7DXy — Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) August 22, 2025 Price Action And Market Moves Markets reacted quickly. Some traders booked profits after the spike, and others trimmed positions ahead of key Fed commentary at Jackson Hole. The pullback was not extreme by historical standards, but it shows how quickly sentiment can change. Markets have been watching Treasury yields and Powell’s comments closely, since those signals help decide whether risk assets will keep drawing fresh money. What The Numbers Mean For Investors Based on reports, the recent fall understates how much volatility persists in crypto. A 6% move in a few days is normal for Bitcoin’s history, yet it still matters for big holders and funds that move money in and out quickly. Some support levels around $112,000 were being watched by crypto tacticians, while traders said downside protection would likely be tested if yields continue higher. Related Reading: Panic Or Profit? Analyst Says XRP Below $3 Is A ‘Massive Blessing’ Analysts’ Price Targets Analysts are split on where Bitcoin goes from here. Bernstein strategists, for example, have floated a scenario where Bitcoin could climb as high as $200,000 within months if certain on-chain flows and institutional demand persist. Other market players see a more modest path, with some guessing at a peak near $140,000 to $150,000 as the most realistic upside in the near term. At the same time, veteran voices like McGlone warn that downside scenarios remain possible if the Fed tightens. Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin surged off key support after Powell hinted at rate cuts, triggering $375M in liquidations as ETH led gains with a 10% rally.
The Fed chair, perhaps surprisingly, took a dovish tone in his remarks at Jackson Hole.
One analyst said a hawkish tone from Powell may turn markets into a risk-off mode, potentially to a 30% drop in bitcoin price.