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Bitcoin has spent the last five days trading within a relatively narrow range between $106,229 and $111,807, following its recent all-time high of $111,814. Despite the increase in selling pressure from miners after the all-time high, the price of Bitcoin has managed to hold above $108,000, with on-chain data showing Bitcoin diamond hands absorbing all the selling pressure. Long-Term Holders Accumulating With Minimal Spending According to data from the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, the Long-Term Holder (LTH) Spending Binary Indicator has fallen to its lowest level since September 2024. This interesting trend was initially noted on the social media platform X by crypto analyst Alex Adler Jr. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Bounces Off Re-Accumulation Zone: Why $120,000 Could Be Next The 15-day moving average of this metric, as shown in the chart by CryptoQuant, has dropped to the minimal spending zone. Notably, this zone has consistently preceded a more bullish move in the Bitcoin price.  In parallel, long-term holder supply has risen by approximately 300,000 BTC over the past 20 days. This marks a deviation from the trend of declines in the long-term holder supply since 2024. At the time of writing, 14.6 million BTC, representing about 74% of the total current circulating supply of BTC, is in addresses classified as long-term holders.  This pattern suggests that so-called “diamond hands”, i.e., investors with a strong conviction who hold through volatility, are not only refraining from selling with Bitcoin’s recent new peak, but are actively accumulating. The chart below shows the correlation between minimal LTH spending and rising price action, a behavior that also aligned with phases of Bitcoin’s uptrend in 2019, late 2020, and late 2024. Why It’s Bullish For The Market The significant uptick in long-term holder supply, combined with minimal selling activity, reveals a hidden strength in the market. The current behavior of long-term investors also indicates their confidence in Bitcoin’s valuation at current levels, despite the recent price surge. Many of these long-term holders are in substantial profit, yet still choose to hold. This is unlike short-term holders, who have collectively realized over $11.6 billion in profits over the past month alone. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Puts Bitcoin Price At $120,000 If This Range Breakout Happens Drawing a parallel with historical data, the current decline in long-term holder (LTH) spending mirrors a similar pattern observed in September 2024. At that time, the LTH Indicator was in the minimal zone, and the long-term holder supply was also increasing steadily. What followed was a remarkable 96% surge in Bitcoin’s price, rising from approximately $54,000 to peaks around $106,000 in December and January. If the market were to follow a similar trajectory from the current price level, a comparable 96% rally would see Bitcoin rise to a new peak near $212,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $109,000. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

TRON (TRX) has been gaining upward momentum alongside the broader cryptocurrency market, reflecting strong price performance in recent weeks. The crypto asset has climbed over 10% in the past month, with its current price at $0.2748, reflecting a modest 0.7% increase in the past 24 hours. While not grabbing headlines with dramatic surges, TRX’s steady growth aligns closely with the broader bullish cycle led by Bitcoin (BTC), suggesting that it may benefit from macro-level investor sentiment. A recent analysis by Carmelo Alemán, a contributor to CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, highlights the increasing relevance of TRON in this market phase. Related Reading: Tron Bulls Regain Control – On-Chain Data Shows Fresh Buying Pressure Bitcoin Correlation Fuels Investor Optimism Alemán’s report, titled “The Crypto Elite Grows with Bitcoin and Why TRX Holds a Special Place,” explores how assets that demonstrate high correlation with Bitcoin, such as TRX, tend to mirror BTC’s market movements. This statistical connection, typically measured through correlation coefficients like Pearson’s, means that Bitcoin’s gains or retracements often influence similar movements in tokens like TRON. According to Alemán, the ongoing Bitcoin bull market, expected by some to last through Q4 2025, sets a favorable context for assets with strong historical correlation to BTC. Tokens, including TRX, SUI, ADA, XLM, HBAR, and Litecoin, are often observed to track Bitcoin’s behavior, rising during rallies and pulling back during corrections. For many investors, these assets present attractive opportunities given their lower market capitalizations compared to Bitcoin, making them capable of delivering larger percentage gains during bullish conditions. The analyst said: In practical terms, Bitcoin is unlikely to grow more than 2x from its current price, whereas highly correlated tokens could triple, quadruple, or more, simply because their smaller market caps make such expansions more feasible. In particular, Alemán draws attention to TRON’s upward momentum and growing network activity, especially in Asia. Notably, TRON recently surpassed Ethereum in the volume of USDT (Tether) issued on its network, signaling a shift in real-world utility and adoption. Alemán wrote: This is no small development: it reflects a restructuring in real network usage, and suggests that Tron could multiply significantly in value in the coming months, as it continues to move in tandem with Bitcoin’s trend. TRON Long-Term Growth Potential Beyond price action, Alemán also underscores TRON’s position in strategic portfolio planning. Because of its correlation with Bitcoin and its smaller relative size, TRON offers potential leverage to BTC’s market cycles. For long-term holders and tactical traders alike, this dynamic presents opportunities for outperformance during phases of sustained Bitcoin growth. Related Reading: TRON Accumulation Phase Detected—Major Price Surge Coming Alemán concludes by advising market participants to remain attentive to on-chain indicators and inter-asset relationships, emphasizing that informed decisions based on correlation dynamics could enhance portfolio returns during this cycle. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Ethereum has maintained a position above $2,500 following a mild retracement from its recent high above $2,700 last week. At the time of writing, the asset trades at $2,564, reflecting a 2.4% increase in the past 24 hours. While the broader crypto market remains in a bullish structure, largely driven by Bitcoin’s sharp upward movement, Ethereum’s relative momentum appears more tempered, raising questions among traders and analysts about its current positioning. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Finds Its Footing: Bulls Prepare for Another Push Retail Quiet, Institutions Watchful Despite the price remaining above key levels, some analysts believe Ethereum has yet to fully capture the broader market’s enthusiasm. One such observation was presented by CryptoQuant’s analyst Burak Kesmeci, who noted that retail activity around Ethereum remains low compared to previous cycles. This could suggest that Ethereum’s rally is still in its early stages, with potential upside left unpriced by the market. The absence of retail enthusiasm, which historically coincided with local tops, may signal that Ethereum has not yet reached a peak for this cycle. Kesmeci’s analysis highlighted a notable shift in retail engagement around Ethereum. Drawing comparisons to the 2021 bull run, the analyst pointed out that earlier rallies were often accompanied by sharp spikes in retail trading frequency. However, during the current cycle, retail interest has been largely muted, even as Bitcoin surged from $16,000 to over $111,000. While ETH saw a brief uptick in retail activity in December 2024, that momentum faded quickly amid broader market reactions to geopolitical developments, including renewed tariff tensions. The analyst concluded that the market may still be in a phase of accumulation, as the typical retail-driven euphoria has yet to materialize. In this scenario, Ethereum could benefit from increased participation in the coming months, particularly if macroeconomic sentiment stabilizes. The potential for delayed retail entry suggests that Ethereum’s current rally might only be at its midpoint rather than nearing a local top. Ethereum Technical Setups Suggest Bullish Continuation On the technical front, several market analysts continue to hold a positive outlook for ETH. A pseudonymous analyst known as Crypto Busy posted on X that the asset’s monthly chart remains structurally intact, referencing a previous key resistance level near $1,410. Related Reading: Ethereum Climbs Back To $2,700 – Bulls Ready For A Breakout? According to the post, Ethereum’s breakout above this long-standing barrier has turned it into support, replicating a setup that historically preceded major rallies. Further reinforcing this perspective, analyst Michaël van de Poppe emphasized the importance of Ethereum’s price action near the $2,400 level. He noted that this zone offered a strong buying opportunity and believes that if Ethereum can successfully retest and hold above this threshold, a move toward $3,000 could follow. According to van de Poppe, such a breakout would signal the beginning of a new bullish phase for ETH. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin maintains upward momentum despite a recent market retracement that briefly pulled the asset off its all-time highs. After climbing past the $111,000 level last week to set a new record, the cryptocurrency experienced a modest correction. BTC trades at $109,874 at the time of writing, reflecting a 2.3% daily increase. The move comes amid broader bullish sentiment in the crypto market, with traders weighing recent volatility against long-term structural trends. Meanwhile, analysts tracking on-chain activity suggest that the recent price pullback may have cleared the path for more sustainable market behavior. Related Reading: $200,000 Bitcoin ‘Is Real’ By Year-End, Says Top Researcher High Leverage Triggers Liquidations Below Key Support Levels Amr Taha, a contributor to CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, highlighted how Bitcoin’s price action flushed out over-leveraged traders while presenting an opportunity for long-term investors to reinforce their positions. His post titled “Late Longs Wiped Out — Long-Term Holders Seize the Opportunity to Accumulate Bitcoin” points to distinct market behavior unfolding in real time. Taha noted that Bitcoin’s recent drop below the psychological $111,000 threshold led to two significant long liquidation clusters on Binance. The first wave occurred around the $110,900 mark, wiping out over $97 million in long positions. Shortly after, a second wave hit as the price breached $109,000, resulting in a further $88 million in liquidated positions. These back-to-back events reflected cascading margin calls from traders using high leverage, a pattern often seen during sharp short-term corrections. Notably, liquidation clusters tend to emerge when rapid price movements force the automatic closure of margin positions, intensifying sell pressure in the process. This volatility tends to shake out speculative positions and can signal a temporary pause or consolidation phase in the broader trend. According to Taha, while the market absorbed these liquidations, it simultaneously witnessed a contrasting pattern among long-term holders (LTHs), who remained active throughout the volatility. Long-Term Holders Accumulate as Liquidations Unfold While short-term participants absorbed the brunt of the sell-off, LTHs appeared to interpret the price dip as a buying opportunity. Taha highlighted on-chain metrics showing that the LTH realized cap, a measure of the total value paid for held coins by long-term investors, has surged past $28 billion. This level had not been observed since April, reinforcing the narrative that seasoned market participants are increasing their exposure during moments of market dislocation. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Rally Over After $111,900 ATH? Global M2 Money Supply Is Still Going The behavior of long-term holders is often seen as a barometer for market health. Their steady accumulation during liquidation events suggests confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value trajectory. Historically, accumulation by LTHs during volatile periods has coincided with later upward price expansions, as coins are removed from circulation and selling pressure is reduced. With leveraged positions reset and structural accumulation underway, the groundwork may be forming for Bitcoin to attempt another breakout beyond its previous highs. Featured image created with DALLE, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin’s momentum, which pushed the asset to a fresh all-time high of over $111,000 earlier this week, appears to have paused slightly heading into the weekend. As of the time of writing, BTC is trading at $108,499, marking a 2.5% decline over the past 24 hours. Despite this short-term retracement, the overall market trend remains positive. Bitcoin has held most of its recent gains and remains just below its record peak set yesterday. The recent price action has coincided with an increase in on-chain signals, suggesting that large players are returning to the market. Notably, analysts are closely monitoring activity from major crypto exchanges like Binance, which have historically played a significant role in price discovery and market direction. Related Reading: Bitcoin Smashes Past $111K, But Are Traders About to Dump? Bitcoin Whale Activity on Binance Sparks Volatility Watch A recent analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Crazzyblockk highlighted a surge in whale activity on Binance. In his QuickTake post titled “Binance Whale Activity Spikes —  Eyes on the Market,” the analyst pointed out that the Binance Whale Activity Score has seen a sharp rise. This metric, which measures inflow and outflow behavior of the top 10 whale wallets on Binance, indicates that large holders are actively repositioning. These movements can be early indicators of upcoming volatility and directional shifts in the market. The analyst explained that inflow spikes from whales may point to potential distribution or strategic selling, while outflow surges often signal accumulation or redeployment of capital to other platforms. The significance of these whale movements lies in their historical tendency to precede major price developments. According to Crazzyblockk, Binance remains a central venue for price formation, making it critical to observe whale patterns there. He concluded that these inflow-outflow fluctuations could introduce higher liquidity and possibly increased volatility in the short term. Spot Market Data Points to Renewed Buyer Interest Complementing these observations is a report from another CryptoQuant analyst, Ibrahimcosar, who identified a positive shift in spot market behavior. According to the analyst, the Spot Taker CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) over the past 90 days has turned green again. This metric reflects the difference between taker buy and taker sell volumes and serves as a proxy for real-time demand. A green phase indicates that market buy orders have become dominant, suggesting that buyers are regaining control. The analyst noted that in previous months, the same chart showed mostly red values, indicating a prevalence of sell orders and downward price pressure. The recent transition back into green territory may suggest the emergence of new demand as Bitcoin challenges its previous highs. Related Reading: Bitcoin From Pizza Day Era Still On The Move, Glassnode Reveals With price levels remaining elevated, the presence of buying pressure is interpreted as a potentially bullish signal. While cautious sentiment remains, these dynamics hint at the possibility of further upward movement if momentum continues to build in the days ahead. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin has surpassed its previous all-time high again, registering a new peak above $111,000 amid continued bullish momentum across the crypto market. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $111,226, reflecting a 2.2% increase in the past 24 hours. This upward movement has pushed the asset beyond the psychological threshold of $110,000, reinforcing optimism in its medium-term trajectory. However, analysts are monitoring underlying market data that may signal emerging risks beneath the surface of the rally. Related Reading: Binance Bitcoin Outflows and MVRV Ratio Point to Sustained Bullish Setup, Analyst Reveals Bitcoin Exchange Inflows and Leverage Ratios Reflect Growing Caution CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha recently published a detailed analysis highlighting key metrics from Binance, including net flows, open interest, and leverage levels. These metrics, when taken together, reveal a familiar setup reminiscent of December 2024, a period that preceded short-term corrections. While Bitcoin’s price action has remained positive, the presence of high exchange inflows and speculative positioning could indicate that some investors are preparing for profit-taking. According to Taha, Binance has observed a notable increase in inflows, with approximately 3,000 BTC and 60,000 ETH entering the exchange as Bitcoin broke its all-time high. This shift from net outflows to inflows suggests that investors may be transferring assets to trading platforms with the intent to sell or adjust their positions. Historically, large net inflows during price peaks have been linked to increased selling activity, particularly when market participants aim to secure gains after extended uptrends. Taha also noted that open interest (OI) on Binance has climbed back above $12 billion levels last seen in December 2024. Open interest refers to the total value of outstanding futures contracts and is often viewed as an indicator of speculative engagement in the market. While rising OI can support upward continuation during bullish phases, it may also increase the risk of volatility if not supported by fresh spot market demand. Compounding this, Binance’s estimated leverage ratio has returned to 0.20, mirroring previous highs and suggesting that many traders are utilizing significant leverage. Elevated leverage levels tend to heighten sensitivity to price fluctuations and can amplify liquidations during abrupt corrections. Related Reading: Bitcoin Shows Elevated Unrealized Profits Without Signs Of Panic Selling – New ATH Soon? Are Market Conditions Echoing December’s Setup? Taha concluded his analysis, revealing that while none of these indicators are inherently bearish on their own, their simultaneous occurrence around a new all-time high could point toward short-term instability. In previous cycles, such combinations of high leverage, rising OI, and exchange inflows have been associated with increased profit-taking and localized pullbacks. Taha wrote: These are not inherently bearish signals in isolation. However, when combined, they historically correlate with profit-taking behavior and often precede volatility spikes or corrections. Traders and investors should remain alert: these same conditions marked the beginning of localized tops in late 2024, especially after periods of aggressive upside. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin continues to show upward momentum as it has now finally reclaimed a critical price mark. As of the latest data, BTC briefly traded above $109,000; however, it has since retraced, now trading at $108,959, marking a 3.5% increase over the past 24 hours. This puts the asset less than 1% away from its all-time high of $109,958 recorded in January. The rally builds on weeks of gradual price appreciation, suggesting persistent bullish sentiment among investors. However, while price action appears strong on the surface, market metrics suggest a more nuanced picture underneath. New data from CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn sheds light on a shift in trading behavior, particularly on Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by volume. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Ready For New ATHs? What The Charts Say Bitcoin Futures Activity Surges as Spot-to-Futures Ratio Hits 1.5-Year High In Maartunn’s recent QuickTake post titled “Spot to Futures Ratio (Binance) Hits 1.5-Year High,” the analyst pointed out that the ratio between spot and futures volume has reached 4.9, its highest level in 18 months. On May 12, Binance recorded $30.17 billion in spot trading volume versus $115.56 billion in futures trading. This 4.9x difference indicates that speculative interest, often driven by leverage, currently far exceeds direct buying pressure seen in spot markets. The Spot to Futures Ratio provides insight into the balance between actual asset purchases and derivative-based speculation. A higher ratio means that trading is more heavily concentrated in futures markets, where traders bet on price movements without owning the underlying asset. This pattern often reflects short-term sentiment and positioning rather than long-term conviction. While elevated futures activity can amplify market moves in either direction, it may also signal caution, as traders hedge rather than accumulate. The sustained gap between spot and futures volumes indicates that speculative leverage is playing a central role in Bitcoin’s current rally. Balanced Profitability Suggests Market Stability Meanwhile, on-chain metrics presented by another CryptoQuant analyst, Crazzyblockk, further contextualize the broader market sentiment. According to his data, profitability across investor cohorts remains high: wallets holding BTC for less than one month are up 6.9% in unrealized gains, while short-term holders (less than six months) are seeing 10.7% gains. Despite these elevated profit margins, there has been no significant sign of mass profit-taking or distressed selling. The Unrealized Profit/Loss (UPL) Ratio reveals that while the majority of the network is in profit, the distribution of gains across different investor groups remains relatively balanced. Related Reading: This Bitcoin Level Could Be To Watch In The Short Term, Glassnode Says This type of evenly distributed profitability has historically been associated with reduced volatility and a lower risk of sudden corrections. Crazzyblockk noted that, in previous cycles, extreme profit concentration among one group, typically short-term holders, often preceded major selloffs. However, the current structure appears more stable, with no signs of excessive selling pressure. Although macroeconomic risks and external volatility remain factors to watch, the combination of strong price action, steady accumulation, and limited distribution suggests that the market may be preparing for a new phase, potentially leading to a breakout beyond Bitcoin’s existing all-time high. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

The broader cryptocurrency market has been on an upward trajectory over the past few weeks, partly driven by improving global macroeconomic conditions. Recent policy shifts between the United States and China, two of the world’s largest economies, have helped fuel investor sentiment. Both countries have agreed to temporarily reduce tariffs: the US cut rates from 145% to 30%, while China lowered its own from 125% to 10%, each over 90 days. These decisions have been interpreted by some as a step toward easing global trade tensions, supporting risk-on assets such as Bitcoin. In response to the broader bullish environment, Bitcoin has seen a steady rise, currently trading at $106,574, up 1.7% in the last 24 hours. The price earlier reached a 24-hour high of $107,844 before retreating slightly. Despite the pullback, Bitcoin remains just 2% below its all-time high of $109,000, recorded in January 2025. The consistent climb has led analysts and traders to monitor on-chain metrics more closely to gauge market behavior and possible future movements. Related Reading: Binance Bitcoin Outflows and MVRV Ratio Point to Sustained Bullish Setup, Analyst Reveals Realized Capitalization Surges as Accumulation Phase Strengthens A recent analysis from CryptoQuant contributor Carmelo Alemán has brought attention to Bitcoin’s realized capitalization, a metric that measures the total value of Bitcoin based on the price at which each coin last moved on-chain. According to Alemán, the realized cap jumped by more than $3 billion in a single day, marking a 0.33% increase in the total capital invested in Bitcoin. This significant uptick signals renewed capital inflows, and more importantly, it points to a recurring pattern of accumulation and consolidation. Alemán identified a repeating cycle beginning in April, where Bitcoin has shown sharp price increases followed by sideways movements lasting 8 to 10 days. These lateral phases, supported by rising realized cap, form a staircase-like chart structure with each step building upon the previous one. From an on-chain perspective, the steady climb in realized cap suggests buyers are entering the market at higher levels, lifting the network’s aggregate cost basis and demonstrating long-term confidence in the asset. On-Chain Trends Suggest Investors Are Positioning for Continuation Alemán also highlighted that the behavior of realized capitalization in the current market mirrors patterns seen in previous bull cycles. Historically, spikes in this metric during consolidation phases have preceded large-scale price movements. The current rise indicates that capital entering the market is doing so with a long-term view, rather than speculative short-term intent. This positions the market for a potential continuation, especially as accumulation appears to intensify around the psychological $106,000–$109,000 range. Related Reading: $3.8 Billion In Capital Inflows Behind Ethereum’s Post-Pectra Surge, Data Shows The analyst concluded that tracking realized cap in the days ahead will be essential to confirm whether the current phase evolves into another upward price impulse. If the trend persists, it could support another leg higher, reinforcing the view that Bitcoin remains in a broader accumulation structure. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a slight retreat after reaching an intraday high of $106,704. At the time of writing, the asset trades at $104,686, reflecting a mere 0.4% increase in the last 24 hours. Despite this slight pullback, BTC remains within 3.8% of its all-time high of $109,000 set in January, indicating that bullish momentum is still largely intact. Amid this price performance, data suggests that BTC’s price behavior remains supported by strategic accumulation patterns rather than short-term speculation. The return of large-scale withdrawals from centralized exchanges like Binance and Kraken may be contributing to this reduced sell-side pressure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Update: Spot Demand Climbs As Short-Term Profits Lose Steam Exchange Outflows and MVRV Ratio Support Accumulation Thesis Amr Taha, a contributor to CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, highlighted a noteworthy shift in investor behavior. According to Taha’s latest analysis, over 3,090 BTC, valued at approximately $325 million, were withdrawn from Binance in a single day. This followed an earlier 76,000 ETH withdrawal from Binance and a separate 170,000 ETH exit from Kraken. These movements suggest investors are increasingly transferring assets off exchanges, a behavior typically linked to long-term holding strategies. Taha notes that this trend aligns with broader developments in the industry, such as Circle’s reported IPO plans and acquisition discussions involving Coinbase and Ripple. Taha’s analysis also emphasizes the importance of the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio in gauging market sentiment. Currently standing at 2.33, the MVRV remains below the 2.75 threshold that has historically triggered major corrections. The last instance of MVRV crossing that level coincided with a prolonged five-month downturn. In contrast, the current level suggests that Bitcoin is not yet in overheated territory, which could give the market room to move higher before heavy profit-taking begins. Bitcoin Market Structure Points to Reduced Sell Pressure Taha concludes that the market remains in an accumulation phase, driven by reduced exchange reserves and a neutral MVRV reading. The decline in exchange-held BTC supply lowers the risk of large-scale sell-offs, especially if buyer demand holds steady. This dynamic could help sustain the current uptrend, barring unexpected external shocks. Moreover, the combination of falling exchange balances and a sub-critical MVRV ratio paints a picture of a market not yet near euphoric excess. Instead, the conditions suggest a cautious optimism among investors, with many choosing to store rather than liquidate their holdings, according to Taha. Related Reading: This Bitcoin Level Could Be To Watch In The Short Term, Glassnode Says The analyst added that the gradual offloading of exchange balances supports the view that institutional and large retail participants are still positioning for future upside. Should the MVRV ratio climb toward the historical trigger point of 2.75, that sentiment may begin to shift, but for now, on-chain indicators suggest that Bitcoin’s rally may still have room to grow. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin has resumed its upward trajectory in the early hours of Monday, briefly surpassing the $106,000 mark before encountering resistance and experiencing a minor pullback. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $104,153, representing a 1% decline over the past 24 hours. Despite this dip, the asset remains in a strong position overall, having posted significant gains over the past several weeks and retaining proximity to its all-time high levels. This price action follows a brief consolidation phase late last week, during which Bitcoin paused after climbing above $104,000. Amid this price performance, CryptoQuant analyst Avocado Onchain recently shared his interpretation of the trend based on derivatives and spot market data. Related Reading: Are Bitcoin Whales About to Cash Out? Key Metric Signals Possible Profit-Taking Ahead Market Buy Volume and Funding Rates Show a Shift in Rally Behavior In his recent analysis, “Bitcoin’s Rebound Without Overheating Is a Clear Sign of a Healthy Bull Market,” Avocado Onchain pointed to a shift in Bitcoin’s behavior around key price milestones. In previous breakout attempts, he noted that Bitcoin’s surge to new all-time highs was often accompanied by a sharp rise in Binance’s market buy volume and funding rates, both of which signaled overheated conditions. These conditions typically resulted in short-term corrections, as traders locked in profits and leverage unwound. However, the analyst observed that the current rebound is unfolding differently. Funding rates on Binance remain stable, and market buy volume is trending downward, which Avocado interprets as a sign of restraint rather than weakness. He argued that, unlike the sharp speculative rallies seen in prior phases, the present environment reflects cautious optimism and sustained accumulation. According to him, this more tempered recovery could be less vulnerable to abrupt pullbacks and instead support a more stable path to potential new highs. ???? 과열 없는 비트코인 반등, 건강한 강세장의 신호(Bitcoin’s Rebound Without Overheating Is a Clear Sign of a Healthy Bull Market) 이번 시즌 비트코인 가격이 신고가를 갱신할 때마다 바이낸스 시장가 매수 거래량과 펀딩비는 크게 상승하였고, 그 후 과열로 인한 조정기간이 찾아오는 유사한… pic.twitter.com/c0JCPzgbfY — Avocado (@avocado_onchain) May 19, 2025 Bitcoin On-Chain Trends Point to Continued Accumulation Avocado further emphasized that although buying activity is not surging at the same rate as in prior runs, the overall trend in market buy volume has been gradually increasing since 2023. He referred to on-chain data that shows a consistent uptrend, suggesting that longer-term investor appetite remains intact. With sentiment still recovering from recent corrections and derivatives markets appearing less overheated, he suggested the market structure is favorable for additional upward momentum in the near to mid-term. Related Reading: Bitcoin Exchange Stablecoins Ratio Surges—A Warning For Investors? While the analyst did not make a specific prediction regarding when Bitcoin might surpass its previous record, he highlighted that the current market conditions do not resemble previous overheated peaks. This, he noted, makes for a more constructive setup and potentially more durable gains if the trend continues. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin prices have registered impressive gains in recent weeks amidst an ongoing price rebound. Since dipping below the $75,000 mark in mid-April, the asset’s price has jumped by over 37.5% to trade as high as $105,490.  While the BTC market appears to be cooling off, renowned crypto analyst Ali Martinez has tipped the premier cryptocurrency to hit a market top of $120,000 before the current bull cycle runs out. Related Reading: Golden Ratio Multiplier Called Bitcoin Top In 2021 – Here’s What It’s Saying Now CVDD Metrics Hint At $120k Peak, But Only If $90k Support Holds The Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) is an on-chain metric that measures the total coin-days destroyed when dormant BTC moves, thus capturing the spending activity of long-term holders. Basically, a surge in CVDD indicates significant profit-taking by long-term holders, which is often an indicator of overheated market conditions. Meanwhile, reduced CVDD action marks accumulation phases.  Based on the chart presented by Martinez, prominent analytics firm CryptoQuant extrapolates Bitcoin’s current CVDD at $34,154 into multiple layers, each representing different aspects of the bull market.   Firstly, there is the Accessing Tops, i.e, the black line which extrapolates the CVDD into an upper band that the price has reached at the major tops, such as at $20,000 in 2017 and $69,000 and 2021. Presently, the Accessing Tops is around $120,000, suggesting this could be the next market peak of this bull run.  Another important layer in CryptoQuant’s extrapolation of the CVDD is the Accumulating Phase 2, the second-tier support band that has repeatedly underpinned price throughout 2025. It is presently positioned at $90,000, marking the first major support line for bulls.  With the present Bitcoin price at $103,242, Ali Martinez warns that preserving the price support at $90,000 is critical to maintaining Bitcoin’s bull structure and enabling a potential rise to $120,000. Related Reading: Ethereum Faces Resistance Against Bitcoin – ETH/BTC Bullish Structure In Question Bitcoin Price Overview At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $103,573, reflecting a slight market gain of 0.09% in the past day. Meanwhile, the asset’s daily trading volume is down by 17.92%, indicating a fall in market participation.  Presently, the next resistance level stands at $105,000. However, Martinez has stated that major positive developments will only follow when a price close above $107,000 is achieved. Meanwhile, bullish sentiments remain high as illustrated by another impressive performance by the Bitcoin Spot ETFs, which registered a net inflow of $1.81 billion in the past week. With a market cap of $2.04 trillion, Bitcoin continues to remain the most valuable digital asset, holding about 62.8% of the crypto market. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview

Onchain data shows that over $40 billion worth of XRP has been moved over the last week, which puts the altcoin on the edge. Specifically, these coins were transferred to exchanges, which indicates that XRP is at risk of a massive sell-off.  Over $40 Billion XRP Moved To Exchanges CryptoQuant data shows that over $40 billion has been moved to Binance this past week, with the exchange’s reserves surging during this period. This development is usually bearish as it indicates that investors are looking to offload their coins. This comes as the XRP price surged to as high as $2.6, which explains this wave of profit-taking.  Related Reading: XRP Reaching Oversold Levels As Net Flows Turn Negative, What’s Next? Moreover, crypto analyst Ali Martinez revealed that Bitcoin whales have secured profits, selling over 30,000 BTC this week. As such, XRP whales may be simply mirroring this move. Meanwhile, Bitcoinist reported that XRP is reaching oversold levels as net flows turn negative, with the wave of sell-offs heightening.  This selling pressure comes amid Judge Analisa Torres’ ruling in the Ripple SEC lawsuit, which provides a setback for XRP. The judge denied the parties’ motion for an indicative ruling because the filing was procedurally improper. The ruling also sparked a massive sell-off, with XRP dropping over 4%. XRP risks losing its bullish setup as Martinez revealed that the key support zone is at $2.38, meaning that a drop below this level could lead to a deeper correction. However, a hold above this level could set the altcoin for a rally to new highs as the analyst revealed that there are no major resistance clusters ahead. Crypto analyst CasiTrades had warned that XRP’s failure to hold above the $2.69 resistance could send its price towards $2.30 for a reset.  Altcoin Has Formed A Double Bottom Formation In an X post, crypto analyst Egrag Crypto revealed that XRP has formed a double bottom following the dip to $2.3126. He stated that the altcoin is still bouncing off the red descending trend line, showing resilience. The analyst added that the altcoin is experiencing some micro noise within the range between the Fibonacci 0.888 levels at $2.30 and $2.62.  Related Reading: XRP Price Set To Continue Uptrend As Stochastic RSI Moves Out Of Oversold Zone His accompanying chart showed that the key is for the XRP price to hold above the trendline at $2.3. A bounce from this level could send the altcoin as high as $3.8, near its current all-time high (ATH) of $3.84. Based on its historical performance, Egrag Crypto still expects the altcoin’s price to rally to between $27 and $33 in this market cycle.  At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $2.37, down almost 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

ETH's rally is fueling investor expectations for a new 'Alt season', according to a recent CryptoQuant report.

Bitcoin experienced a notable surge earlier this week, climbing above the $104,000 mark and registering a weekly gain of nearly 10%. However, after reaching this level, the asset appears to have encountered resistance, with upward momentum slowing and price action remaining relatively flat in recent days. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $103,663, reflecting a modest 1.7% increase over the past 24 hours. Amid this price performance, one of CryptoQuant’s top analysts, Darkfost, offered insight into the current market stagnation. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Stalls as SOPR Spikes: Analyst Explains What It Means Derivatives Market Activity Signals Short-Term Uncertainty According to his post on X, the root of the slowdown appears to stem from the derivatives market. Specifically, he pointed to the cumulative net taker volume, a metric that tracks the net volume of market orders, remaining in negative territory since BTC crossed above the psychological $100,000 threshold. This suggests that there are more aggressive sell orders (shorts) than buy orders (longs), creating persistent downward pressure on price. Net taker volume is a useful gauge of real-time trader sentiment, and when it trends negative, it typically signals that market participants expect prices to drop, prompting more short-selling. ???? The main reason why BTC is currently stuck at these levels comes from the derivatives market. ????The cumulative net taker volume has mostly remained in negative territory ever since BTC climbed back above the psychological $100 000 level. – What does this mean ? ⁰In simple… pic.twitter.com/2ABZ3qzQ0s — Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) May 16, 2025 Darkfost emphasized that this trend reflects increasing uncertainty among traders about Bitcoin’s short-term ability to reach new all-time highs. While long-term sentiment remains positive, the imbalance in derivatives activity highlights a cautious approach among participants. “It clearly reflects a growing sense of doubt among traders regarding Bitcoin’s ability to reach a new all-time high in the very short term,” he stated. “In such a context, the market loves to prove them wrong.” This sentiment-driven hesitation has slowed the pace of Bitcoin’s rally, even as it remains within striking distance of its January high. Bitcoin Technical Setup Hints at Bullish Continuation Meanwhile, technical analyst Javon Marks pointed to chart patterns suggesting a potential continuation of Bitcoin’s bullish trend. He highlighted the formation of a bull flag, a technical pattern often interpreted as a pause before the continuation of an upward movement. “Bitcoin looks to be bull flagging right under all-time highs.  A breakout can send it above,” Marks wrote. Related Reading: Galaxy CEO Novogratz Sees Imminent Bitcoin Breakout To $130,000 If confirmed, this could signal renewed upward pressure and open the door for another leg higher. Additionally, Marks noted that altcoins are exhibiting similar behavior to previous market cycles, particularly the surges seen in 2017 and 2021. He suggested that the current phase may precede a broader altcoin rally, which historically tends to follow Bitcoin’s moves. Altcoins look to be moving similarly and right on track as it did in the 2017 and 2021 surges. The next phase looks to be where #Altcoins deliver the green light, or in other words push in their most bullish phases. This can SEND ALTS MUCH HIGHER, FAST ????! pic.twitter.com/2wrr0WOTzB — JAVON⚡️MARKS (@JavonTM1) May 16, 2025 Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Dogecoin (DOGE) has shown a steady performance in recent weeks, which is in line with the broader rally across the cryptocurrency market. Over the past two weeks, DOGE has risen by more than 25%, pushing its price as high as $0.24. Despite this growth, the asset experienced a slight pullback in the past 24 hours, retreating by 0.3% to $0.22 at the time of writing. The latest movements mark a period of renewed interest in the asset, particularly from retail traders. Related Reading: Dogecoin Pullback May Be Short-Lived—Here’s The Next Price Target Dogecoin Retail Activity and Sentiment Indicators One of CryptoQuant’s contributors, Burak Kesmeci, recently shared new insights into DOGE’s futures market activity. In a post titled “Too Many Retail Traders? DOGE Futures Show Repeated Peak Patterns”, Kesmeci pointed to the potential influence of speculative trading behavior. His analysis highlights that previous peaks in Dogecoin’s price have often coincided with a sharp increase in retail participation in futures markets, raising questions about the sustainability of such rallies. Kesmeci’s analysis centers around a visual metric that tracks trading activity from retail investors within DOGE futures markets. In this chart, red bubbles mark moments when retail trading spikes significantly. These periods, according to the analyst, have historically aligned with local price tops, suggesting that elevated speculative behavior often precedes short-term corrections. On the other hand, green and pink bubbles, representing periods of reduced retail activity, have typically aligned with more stable or neutral price phases. The underlying interpretation is that when DOGE futures markets become saturated with retail participants, the likelihood of momentum exhaustion increases. For traders, these retail spikes may serve as potential warning signals of short-term reversals. As Kesmeci notes, this data can be used in conjunction with other technical and on-chain metrics to build a more comprehensive view of market sentiment, especially in volatile assets like Dogecoin. The analysis supports a more cautious approach where retail enthusiasm dominates trading volumes. Technical Forecast Suggests Possible Rally Continuation While futures data indicates caution around potential retail-driven tops, other technical perspectives suggest the possibility of further upside. Crypto analyst Javon Marks recently shared an outlook indicating that DOGE may be positioned for a continuation toward a new all-time high. Related Reading: Where’s Next Major Dogecoin Resistance? On-Chain Data Points To This According to Marks, the asset has confirmed a major bullish signal on its chart, suggesting that another leg of upward momentum may already be in play. He projects that the next major target lies nearly 200% above current price levels. $DOGE RECOVERING HEAVILY AND HAS CONFIRMED A MAJOR CONTINUATION SIGNAL ????! Next leg towards All Time Highs can be in-effect and with those levels nearly +200% away, it could be HUGE! https://t.co/5H1HkZG5Hn pic.twitter.com/whi0lxqDM2 — JAVON⚡️MARKS (@JavonTM1) May 13, 2025 Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin’s recent climb appears to have momentarily slowed following a period of consistent upward momentum. After briefly trading above $104,000 earlier in the week, the price has since retraced to around $102,004, reflecting a modest 1.2% dip in the past 24 hours. Despite the pullback, BTC remains up nearly 20% over the past month and is currently trading 6.4% below its all-time high of $109,000 reached in January. CryptoQuant contributor Carmelo Alemán shared insights into the activity of long-term holders (LTHs), suggesting a potential link between the recent pullback and increasing realized profits among seasoned investors. Related Reading: Bitcoin Exchange Stablecoins Ratio Surges—A Warning For Investors? Bitcoin SOPR and Profit-Taking Behavior Signal Distribution Trends According to Alemán, the Bitcoin SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) for LTHs has risen significantly since March 12, marking a 71.33% growth in realized profits. This trend may reflect strategic profit-taking among investors who accumulated Bitcoin at lower prices during previous consolidation phases. Alemán’s analysis highlights how Bitcoin’s long-term holders, those who have held BTC for more than 150 days, have steadily increased their profit margins over the past two months. As of May 13, the SOPR for LTHs reached 2.27409, indicating that coins moved by these investors were sold at an average return of 227.41%. In practical terms, an investor who bought BTC for $50,000 would have realized roughly $113,705, with $64,000 in profit. This behavior may point to a period of cautious distribution, as experienced holders seek to lock in gains ahead of potential market corrections. Historically, such spikes in SOPR values tend to align with the later stages of market rallies, when price volatility increases and profit-taking accelerates. Alemán suggests that while the market has yet to reach its full cycle peak, LTHs may be preparing for such a scenario by adjusting their positions accordingly. This cautious profit-taking could influence near-term price movements, particularly if short-term traders follow the lead of more seasoned market participants. Related Reading: Bitcoin Will Hit $1 Million By 2028 As Capital Controls Kick In: Top Expert Mixed Signals from LTH Behavior: Selling Slows Despite Price Nearing ATH In contrast to Alemán’s observation, another CryptoQuant analyst, ShayanMarkets, presented a different view of LTH behavior. According to Shayan, while the Bitcoin market is experiencing some profit-taking pressure, long-term holders are not contributing significantly to the selling activity. This view is supported by the declining SOPR metric among LTHs, which suggests that these investors are either holding or continuing to accumulate. This divergence may indicate a shift in the market’s dynamics. Whereas prior rallies were often met with widespread distribution from early adopters, the current trend could be characterized by stronger conviction among institutional or strategic holders. If this behavior continues, Bitcoin may resume its upward momentum once short-term selling pressure subsides. Shayan wrote: Based on this behavior, Bitcoin is likely to resume its bullish trend following this pause, potentially leading to a fresh impulsive rally and new all-time highs in the mid-term. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Ethereum (ETH) experienced a slight price pullback over the past 24 hours, declining by 2.1% to hover slightly above $2,500. Despite this daily decline, ETH has remained at more than 30% over the past week, marking a strong recovery trend from earlier market conditions. The rally follows broad strength across the crypto market, with Ethereum pushing into new price zones that have brought it above several important realized price levels. The price movement from Ethereum prompted one of CryptoQuant’s contributors, BlitzzTrading, to closely monitor ETH’s realized price data, particularly how it relates to different wallet cohorts. Related Reading: $1.2B In Ethereum Withdrawn From CEXs – Strong Accumulation Signal Understanding Realized Prices Across ETH Wallet Tiers BlitzzTrading highlighted that Ethereum has moved above the average cost basis of most holders, broken down by wallet size. This “average cost basis,” or realized price, refers to the average price at which a given cohort of investors acquired their ETH. It is calculated by assessing the aggregate value at which the coins were last moved, providing insight into whether those investors are currently in profit or loss. Tracking these levels can help traders identify potential support zones or areas where profit-taking may occur. According to BlitzzTrading’s data, holders with balances between 100–1,000 ETH have a realized price of $2,225, those with 1,000–10,000 ETH hold at $2,196, and wallets holding between 10,000–100,000 ETH have an average cost basis of $1,994. Larger wallets, with over 100,000 ETH, have a much lower average cost basis of $1,222. As the current ETH price hovers around $2,500, most of these groups are in profit. However, price corrections to retest these levels, especially after sharp rallies, are common in both bullish and sideways market structures. Profit-Taking by Ethereum Whales Raises Questions About Short-Term Top In a related post, BlitzzTrading explored the behavior of large Ethereum holders, referred to as “whales,” defined as addresses holding over 10,000 ETH. These large investors can have a disproportionate impact on market prices due to the volume of their trades. The analyst noted that after ETH previously reached the $4,000 mark, whale-driven profit-taking contributed to a drop in price down to $1,300. Monitoring such activity is vital, as it can signal upcoming shifts in trend or potential short-term price ceilings. Related Reading: Ethereum Stakers Enter Profit Zone as Price Climbs Above $2,400 Currently, ETH is once again approaching territory where whales are significantly in profit. If these large holders begin to offload their positions, similar to previous cycles, it may introduce downward pressure. However, if whale wallets continue to hold or accumulate, it may reinforce broader market confidence. Real-time monitoring of whale flows remains a key tool for interpreting Ethereum’s short-term trajectory. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin’s recent market movement reflects ongoing upward momentum, even as short-term fluctuations suggest some cooling. As of today, BTC trades at $103,485, reflecting a slight 0.6% dip in the last 24 hours and a near 10% decline over the past week. However, the asset remains just under 5% below its all-time high of $109,000 reached in January, continuing to hold a position near record levels. This pattern suggests Bitcoin may be entering a consolidation phase, supported by long-term bullish fundamentals. Amid this price performance, renewed activity among long-term holders is generating interest about the sustainability of the current price range and the potential for future volatility. Related Reading: Bitcoin Near ATH, But Still No Extreme Greed: Green Sign For Bull Run? Bitcoin Binary CDD Signals Potential Market Rotation CryptoQuant analyst Avocado Onchain recently highlighted a key indicator known as Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), which helps assess the behavior of long-dormant Bitcoin. Binary CDD increases when older coins are moved after extended periods of inactivity, typically a sign of long-term holders re-entering the market or preparing to sell. Historically, spikes in Binary CDD have coincided with market tops or phases where distribution from early holders to newer market participants increases. According to Avocado, applying a 30-day moving average to Binary CDD smooths the data and provides a clearer view of macro trends. During previous Bitcoin rallies, including in late 2021 and during the twin peaks of 2024, the Binary CDD rose past the 0.8 threshold. That level historically signaled elevated movement from long-term holders, often aligning with increased selling pressure or profit-taking behavior. Currently, the indicator sits near 0.6 and is trending upward as Bitcoin attempts to retest its highs. If Binary CDD crosses the 0.8 mark again, it may suggest another wave of distribution is underway. Monitoring Profit Realization Behavior What makes Binary CDD useful is its ability to reflect potential shifts in market structure. When long-term holders begin moving large volumes of BTC, it often signals the start of profit-taking, especially if accompanied by high prices and strong market sentiment. However, the indicator alone does not confirm sell-offs; context, such as exchange inflows and broader trading data, is necessary to interpret it fully. In a broader sense, the current uptick in Binary CDD may point to Bitcoin entering a transitional stage. Rather than signaling the end of an uptrend, it could indicate that notable investors are gradually rotating capital or responding to price action in anticipation of near-term changes. In a separate market signal, another CryptoQuant analyst, EgyHash, highlighted concerns arising from the Exchange Stablecoins Ratio (USD), a metric that compares Bitcoin reserves to stablecoin holdings on exchanges. According to EgyHash, this ratio has climbed to around 5.3, surpassing the threshold of 5.0, which previously coincided with distribution phases in the market. A similar level in late January led to a pullback, and the current reading suggests that more traders may be preparing to sell, possibly rotating BTC holdings back into stablecoins or fiat equivalents. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin has continued its steady ascent, with the asset now trading above $103,000. This marks a 0.4% decrease over the last 24 hours and more than 20% over the past month. While the rally has reaffirmed bullish sentiment in broader markets, recent data points to a shift in the sources driving this momentum. A CryptoQuant analyst has observed a growing disparity between regional and global market behavior, especially regarding the price of Bitcoin across different exchanges. Related Reading: Bitcoin Treasury Firms Are This Cycle’s Bubble, Experts Warn Upward Momentum as Global Investors Take the Lead CryptoQuant analyst Avocado Onchain recently analyzed a key metric known as the “Korea Premium,” which tracks the price difference between Bitcoin on Korean exchanges and international platforms. Despite Bitcoin’s rising market price, the Korea Premium has been on a consistent downward trend. This suggests the ongoing rally is largely being driven by institutional flows and investor sentiment in markets outside Korea, rather than from the historically active Korean retail segment. In previous cycles, particularly in 2017 and 2021, South Korean exchanges often traded BTC at a premium due to local demand surges, sometimes up to 20% higher than international prices. These periods were typically seen as signals of retail-driven euphoria. Avocado explains that this change in market dynamics reflects a new phase of capital distribution in the crypto space. With spot Bitcoin ETFs now operational in the US, and growing interest from corporations and even sovereign wealth entities, a larger share of trading activity is being driven by institutional strategies rather than retail speculation. This is reflected in the subdued Korea Premium, which failed to spike even as BTC crossed major resistance levels in recent months. Institutional Activity Redefines Bitcoin’s Market Drivers According to Avocado, even if a rebound occurs, any Korea Premium near 10%—once considered modest—should now be interpreted as elevated. The absence of excessive domestic premiums highlights that Asian retail is no longer setting the pace in Bitcoin markets. Instead, global institutional actors, armed with new vehicles like ETFs and custodial platforms, appear to be the primary drivers of demand. This shift is significant because it may signal more sustained and less volatile growth for Bitcoin, in contrast to previous boom-and-bust cycles fueled by retail enthusiasm. Related Reading: Buyers Take Control: Indicator That Predicted Previous Bitcoin Rallies Fires Again Avocado’s observations suggest a maturation of the crypto market. With retail sentiment lagging and institutional interest rising, Bitcoin’s price trajectory may now be more responsive to global macroeconomic events, policy shifts, and capital allocation trends from major asset managers. This evolving dynamic could also change how traders interpret volume spikes and volatility, especially as retail signals like the Korea Premium lose some of their predictive power. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

XRP has aligned itself with the broader cryptocurrency market’s upward trend, registering significant gains over the past week. The asset recorded a 20% rise on the weekly chart before retreating slightly. At the time of writing, XRP trades at $2.54, reflecting a 2% decline in the past 24 hours. Despite the minor dip, the asset remains well above recent local lows and is showing signs of growing trader interest. According to a new analysis shared by CryptoQuant contributor BorisVest, activity in XRP derivatives on Binance indicates potential accumulation amid increasing speculative interest. Related Reading: XRP Price To Rally To $6: Partially Completed Wave 5 Says There’s Still Room To Run The market, which previously saw a steep drop in open interest, is now witnessing a resurgence in leveraged trading positions. These on-chain dynamics may be hinting at a shift in sentiment as participants return following the earlier flush-out. XRP Open Interest Rebounds as Traders Re-Enter the Market Open interest, defined as the total number of active futures contracts not yet settled—serves as a gauge for market engagement. When open interest increases alongside price, it often suggests rising speculative participation.  In XRP’s case, the data shows a sharp rebound from a previous $530 million low to a higher range, suggesting a recovery in market confidence after a significant drop from its $1.5 billion peak. BorisVest also analyzed Binance funding rates, which reflect the cost of maintaining long or short positions in perpetual futures. These rates become positive when long positions dominate and negative when short interest prevails.  During XRP’s recent correction, the funding rate turned negative, indicating an influx of short positions and setting up conditions for a possible short squeeze. A short squeeze occurs when short sellers are forced to buy back their positions due to rising prices, often resulting in rapid upward price movements.  Currently, the funding rate is neutral, suggesting equilibrium between bullish and bearish positions, though subtle signals point to increasing short exposure. Taker Sell Pressure Meets Steady Price: Signs of Absorption? Another metric underlined in the analysis is the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio. This indicator compares the volume of aggressive buy orders (market buys) against sell orders (market sells). A ratio below 1 implies that sellers are more aggressive.  In this case, XRP’s Taker Buy/Sell Ratio stands at 0.91, meaning selling pressure dominates. However, the absence of significant price declines despite the pressure implies potential absorption by larger players, which can be a precursor to bullish price movements. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Says XRP Price Must Clear This Level Or Risk Crash To $1.9 The combination of rising open interest, neutral funding rates, and sustained price levels despite sell pressure suggests that XRP may be experiencing silent accumulation. While the market remains indecisive, these patterns are often observed in the early stages of a trend reversal or breakout. As speculative activity picks up, it could be worth monitoring these signals closely for further confirmation. Whether this leads to a continuation of XRP’s rally or not, the current data points to a market that is actively recalibrating, and possibly preparing for the next phase in price action. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin has been able to climb above the $104,000 level, following a notable double-digit increase over the past week. At the time of writing, BTC trades at $104,271, narrowing the gap to its all-time high of $109,000. This recent price surge is not occurring in isolation. Instead, it appears closely tied to broader macroeconomic developments, most notably, the recent easing of trade tensions between the US and China, with both countries reducing tariffs on certain imports and exports. Market participants have responded positively to these policy shifts, signaling renewed risk appetite across traditional and digital asset markets. Bitcoin’s rally over the weekend reflects this optimism, with analysts identifying key technical indicators pointing toward rising buyer strength. One such indicator, the Taker Buy Sell Ratio, is gaining attention for marking previous turning points in Bitcoin’s price history. Related Reading: Bitcoin Nears All-Time High as $312M BTC Exit Binance Following US-China Trade Deal Bitcoin Taker Buy-Sell Ratio Signals Renewed Bullish Control CryptoQuant contributor G a a h highlighted that the Taker Buy Sell Ratio, a metric measuring the ratio of market buy orders to sell orders, has climbed to a significant threshold of 1.02. Historically, similar levels have coincided with crucial inflection points in Bitcoin’s price movement. For instance, this metric reached comparable highs during the late 2022 lows between $15,000 and $20,000, and again in October 2023 as Bitcoin broke through the $30,000 resistance level. According to G a a h, this recent breakout above the 1.00 line reflects an increase in aggressive buying activity, with market takers once again asserting short-term control. This suggests upward momentum may persist in the near term. However, the analyst also cautioned that these same conditions have previously been followed by volatility spikes, marking both the start and reversal of market trends. The analyst wrote: It’s worth noting that in previous periods, this same level has coincided with reversal zones or strong volatility, marking both the start and end of trends. We are therefore facing a scenario where buyer appetite could continue to drive BTC towards new highs. Realized Price Trends Confirm Ongoing Market Strength In a separate analysis, CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan examined Bitcoin’s realized price, a metric that reflects the average purchase price of all circulating BTC, as a tool to gauge market sentiment and directional strength. According to the report, the realized price is still on the rise, indicating that investors are increasingly accumulating BTC at higher prices. This trend differs significantly from previous cycles, where a reversal in the realized price preceded steep corrections. Crypto Dan attributes the current rise to institutional inflows, particularly through spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate balance sheet purchases. These channels have brought in sustained capital, elevating the average acquisition price and reinforcing market structure. Related Reading: Why The US-China 90-Day Tariff Slash Can Push Bitcoin Price Above $110,000 As institutional players continue to allocate capital into Bitcoin, the realized price trend suggests that the ongoing rally may have more room to extend. With macroeconomic support from tariff reductions and on-chain indicators flashing green, the broader setup remains constructive for Bitcoin’s continued strength in the near term. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Ethereum is following the broader crypto market rally with renewed momentum, registering a 38.2% increase in the past week. At the time of writing, ETH is trading above $2,400, continuing its upward trajectory and narrowing the gap between its current price and its all-time high of $4,878 recorded in 2021. The asset’s recent performance has placed it firmly in line with Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies, benefiting from revived market confidence. On-chain activity is also beginning to reflect these price movements, especially among Ethereum stakers. According to data shared by CryptoQuant contributor Carmelo Alemán, Ethereum stakers have returned to a state of unrealized profits following a prolonged period of holding at a loss. This shift, the analyst notes, could play a role in shaping the next phase of Ethereum’s market dynamics as staking participants regain confidence in the network’s long-term outlook. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Completes Bullish Structure Break – $3,000 Comes Next Realized Price and Stakeholder Sentiment In his post titled “From Red to Green: Ethereum Stakers Are Back in Profit,” Alemán explained that staked tokens behave differently from regular circulating supply, remaining mostly static and thus excluded from metrics that rely on liquidity or transfer activity. This difference is essential in understanding metrics like the Realized Price, which calculates the average acquisition cost of a given cohort. Since March 3, 2025, Ethereum stakers have been operating under unrealized losses, with the Realized Price at $2,279 and the market price falling to $2,149. However, that changed on May 9, 2025, when the market price of ETH reached $2,297, pushing the staked cohort back into profitability. At that moment, the updated Realized Price stood at $2,276, indicating that a majority of staked tokens were once again held above their cost basis. The renewed profitability could reduce selling pressure and strengthen the resolve of validators and long-term holders who form the backbone of Ethereum’s proof-of-stake consensus model. Implications for Ethereum’s Ecosystem The return to unrealized profits among Ethereum stakers may signal broader positive implications for the network. Alemán emphasized that staked ETH is not only held by individuals seeking yield, but also plays a crucial role in maintaining Ethereum’s network security through validator participation. The shift back into profit territory may encourage new staking activity while discouraging premature withdrawals or profit-taking, helping to stabilize the supply side of the market. Related Reading: Here Are 5 Reasons Ethereum May Reach $12,000 In 2025 – Analyst In addition to individual stakers, institutions and Layer 2 protocol participants may interpret this trend as a bullish indicator for Ethereum’s future trajectory. Alemán noted: This type of price recovery has the potential to trigger new waves of accumulation and participation in the network, further enhancing its security and long-term stability. If ETH maintains this upward trend, we may be witnessing the beginning of a new bullish cycle for Ethereum and its most committed actors, including L2 solutions and other ecosystem players. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin has continued its upward trend, recording a weekly price increase of 10.4% and currently trading at $103,881. The asset has surged over 24% in the last month, fueled by growing optimism across both crypto and traditional markets. Although still about 4% below its January all-time high, the latest developments suggest that bullish momentum may be building again. This renewed price strength appears to be supported by significant capital movements, including a notable Bitcoin outflow from the Binance exchange. Related Reading: Bitcoin 6-Month Flight Plan To $188,000, Here’s The Roadmap Bitcoin Exchange Outflows Suggest Accumulation Phase According to recent data shared on CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform by analyst Amr Taha, over 3,000 BTC, valued at approximately $312 million, was withdrawn from Binance on May 12, marking one of the largest daily outflows in recent months. This coincided with a key macroeconomic development: a new trade agreement between the United States and China, which also sparked a sharp rebound in US equity markets, with the S&P 500 jumping more than 3%. Taha’s analysis indicates that this substantial Bitcoin withdrawal is part of a broader trend. Binance’s BTC reserves have declined consistently, falling from approximately 595,000 BTC in late February to 541,400 BTC by mid-May. The ongoing reduction in exchange balances typically signals a preference among investors for cold storage solutions or private wallets. Historically, such moves are viewed as indicative of accumulation behavior, suggesting lower near-term selling pressure and a more bullish medium-term outlook. The timing of the withdrawal, immediately following a geopolitical breakthrough between two of the world’s largest economies, adds further context. Taha highlights that capital markets responded positively to the easing of US-China tariff tensions, and the corresponding activity in the crypto space suggests Bitcoin investors are aligning their strategies accordingly. With macro uncertainty temporarily subdued, large holders appear to be repositioning for potential future gains, removing liquidity from exchanges to mitigate exposure and reduce immediate sell-side pressure. Macro Trends Influence Market Positioning The analyst further noted that market participants seem to be increasingly responsive to macro signals. The scale of the BTC withdrawal on May 12, paired with rising equity markets, illustrates how capital is shifting across asset classes in response to broader economic developments. Taha suggests this coordinated movement reflects renewed risk appetite and a possible recalibration of investor strategies in light of improving global trade dynamics. Related Reading: Are Bitcoin Bears Losing Out? $31 Million Wiped Out In BTC Shorts Liquidation While it remains to be seen whether this momentum can be sustained, recent patterns support the view that long-term holders and institutional participants are gaining confidence in Bitcoin’s role within a diversified investment strategy. As traditional markets recover and geopolitical risks ease, Bitcoin’s reduced exchange reserves and growing off-exchange holdings may lay the groundwork for another test of its all-time high. The coming weeks will likely be crucial in determining whether current inflows translate into a full-scale breakout or a period of consolidation. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

According to data from CoinMarketCap, Ethereum prices gained by 37.14% in the past week to reach a local peak of $2,600. The majority of this gain has been attributed to the recent Petra network upgrade of the Ethereum blockchain, which is designed to introduce many features, including boosting the ETH burn rate and market scarcity.  Amidst Ethereum’s rally in the past week, the altcoin recorded a significant development that signals a long-term bullish market. Related Reading: Ethereum Surge Above $2,200 Says Bear Market Is Over, Analyst Calls $5,791 ‘Easy’ Target Ethereum Stays Above Realized Price – What Does It Mean? The realized price in the crypto market refers to the average acquisition price of all circulating tokens. It’s a key indicator of market sentiment as a trading price below the realized price signals a bearish market because investors are holding a loss. The reverse scenario is true for a bullish market.  In the analysis provided by CryptoQuant expert Crazzyblockk, ETH is trading above its realized price at $1900 based on the market activity for accumulating addresses, i.e., long-term holders and frequent depositors on the Binance exchange. Notably, this development just occurred in the past week despite the market rebound that has been ongoing since mid-April. The price rise above $1900 proclaims a loud bullish signal as the long-term holders are now in profits, indicating a renewed confidence in ETH’s long-term value. This confidence is strongly reflected in the fact that most recent ETH outflows are moving from Binance, the most active crypto exchange for ETH trading. When Binance ETH deposit addresses show profitability with the current ETH price above the realized price, it indicates a general increase in traders’ confidence and stronger market activity. Moreover, the price rise above $1900 shows a sustained bullish momentum, indicating the market can absorb profit-taking without breaking the current uptrend. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETFs Hit $40 Billion Inflows, Setting Historic Crypto Record Binance Keeps Lead In ETH Liquidity  Based on the presented analysis, Crazzyblockk further concludes that Binance boasts the most active ETH trading community in the crypto space. This is indicated by the massive ETH outflows on the exchange, suggesting a high market activity on the exchange during price appreciation.  The analyst further tipped the exchange to maintain this dominance as traders will always use the most liquid exchange to manage their positions, either for accumulation or for profit taking. At the time of writing, Ethereum trades at $2,525, reflecting a 5.88% gain in the past day. Meanwhile, the asset’s trading volume is down by 18.44% and valued at $33.79 billion. ETH next’s resistance remains at $2,600 following a recent rejection in the past few hours.  If the altcoin can successfully move past this barrier, a potential upswing to $2,800 lies ahead.   Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview

CryptoQuant Founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has walked back his bearish prediction after the Bitcoin price broke out above $100,000. This move has taken the entire market by surprise after calls for lower prices dominated the crypto space for the last few months. As sentiment has moved back into the positive, Young has turned bullish, explaining the change in his stance and what is going on with the market right now. Bitcoin Bull Cycle Is Not Over In an X post, CEO Ki Young Ju explained how the current market has deviated from the previous cycles. For one, he explains that the market is no longer reliant on old Bitcoin whales, retail investors, and miners to move the market. This used to be the way to know the cycle top, which was when old whales and miners were offloading their bags. However, the market has managed to move on, and the Bitcoin price is now better positioned to absorb large sell-offs without issue. Related Reading: Bullish Continuation For XRP Price Shows Possible Recovery To $4 Young explains that this can be attributed to how diverse the market has become so far. The advent of Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which were approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) back in 2024, have opened up new avenues for liquidity. Now, it is not only new retail investors playing the field, but also institutional investors who have been given an avenue to enter the market, and with much larger pockets. This new and substantial flow of liquidity has made it so that even sell-offs from large whales are no longer impacting the Bitcoin price the way they used to. Thus, the CEO believes that it is time to actually shift focus from the old to the new. Given this change in the tide, the CryptoQuant CEO stated that it might be time to throw out the cycle theory. This is because of the changes in liquidity flow, as sources have become more uncertain. “Now, instead of worrying about old whales selling, it’s more important to focus on how much new liquidity is coming from institutions and ETFs since this new influx can outweigh even strong whale sell-offs,” Young explained. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Flashes Signal That Has Led To A Surge Every Time Nevertheless, he still posits that the current market isn’t flashing a clear bearish or bullish pattern when it comes to the profit-taking cycle. As he explains, the market is still sluggish around absorbing all of the new liquidity coming from the different sources and indicators are still “hanging around the borderline.” As for the Bitcoin price, it continues to show strength after crossing $100,000, as bulls eye new all-time highs above $109,000. Investor profitability has also skyrocket and a whopping 99% of all Bitcoin holders are now sitting in profit, according to data from IntoTheBlock. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s recent surge has kept its price firmly above the $100,000 price level, reflecting ongoing investor confidence. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $103,527, posting a 4.3% gain in the past 24 hours and climbing 33% over the last month. While still approximately 5% below its all-time high recorded in January, the market has displayed consistent upward momentum, with technical and on-chain signals indicating continued accumulation. Related Reading: Bitcoin Derivatives In The Driver’s Seat For $100,000 Rally, Data Shows On-Chain Metrics Reflect Growing Confidence This latest rally comes amid broader economic uncertainty and renewed geopolitical activity. According to data shared by CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, current market patterns mirror a period last seen almost 5 years ago, marked by high volatility and conflicting economic narratives. While central banks such as the Federal Reserve have maintained a cautious stance, investor sentiment appears to be shifting toward risk-on, as headlines around trade agreements and fiscal maneuvering spark a surge in buying interest. Darkfost points to the Bitcoin Growth Rate indicator, which has returned to bullish territory alongside BTC reclaiming the $100,000 level. The analyst notes that current market dynamics resemble the June 2020 cycle, particularly in how external political developments influence asset flows. For example, recent trade talks initiated by the Trump administration and aggressive posturing on global policy are fueling rapid investor reactions across equities and crypto alike. This sentiment-driven environment, according to Darkfost, makes it challenging to rely solely on traditional metrics for forecasting price trends. Complicating the picture is the impact of news-driven narratives. Darkfost wrote: This can notably be explained by all the headline-driven effects, like the one we saw today (“You should buy stocks now”), but also by the fact that Trump is starting to pursue trade deals with various countries, such as the agreements made today with the U.K. These signals may be pushing investors into crypto assets as part of broader diversification strategies. Despite the Federal Reserve’s warning for continued caution, the market seems to be faced with a fear of missing out, creating further upside volatility. Bitcoin Whales Continue to Accumulate as Retail Lags In a related analysis, another CryptoQuant analyst caueconomy revealed that large-scale Bitcoin holders have remained active throughout the recent price recovery. Over the last month, wallets classified as “whales” have added roughly 41,300 BTC to their balances. This steady accumulation, especially from institutional investors and corporations, indicates that strategic positioning continues regardless of mixed macroeconomic signals. According to caueconomy, this accumulation is not being driven by retail speculation but by institutional entities using corporate resources such as retained earnings and debt issuance. This form of capital inflow, often described as “passive” accumulation, can generate sustained demand pressure independent of market cycles. As a result, Bitcoin’s recent gains may be supported by a structurally different class of buyers than in previous bull markets. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor burakkemeci, Bitcoin (BTC) is beginning to show signs of a trend reversal after weeks of downward movement. Notably, BTC surged past $100,000 yesterday for the first time since February 3. Bitcoin On The Verge Of Trend Reversal? At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading slightly above $100,000, approximately 5.2% below its all-time high (ATH) of $108,786, set earlier this year on January 20. The leading cryptocurrency has staged an impressive rebound of over 20% from its recent low of $74,508 recorded on April 6. Related Reading: Bitcoin ‘Apparent Demand’ Makes Sharp Rebound – Will BTC Breakout Soon? In their analysis, crypto analyst burakkemeci referred to the CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Market Cycle indicator, saying that it is flashing the early signs of a potential bullish trend reversal. The analyst noted: With Bitcoin surging back above $100K, the indicator has started flashing bullish signals again – for the first time in weeks. Although the signal is still weak (coefficient: 0.029), the mere appearance of a positive shift is encouraging. To explain, the CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Market Cycle indicator is an on-chain tool that tracks long-term and short-term market sentiment by comparing price momentum and investor behavior trends. It uses two key components – the 30-day and 365-day moving averages (MA) – to identify shifts between bull and bear cycles. Importantly, the analyst pointed out that the Bull-Bear 30-day MA has started to turn upward. If this metric crosses above the 365-day MA, historical trends suggest Bitcoin could enter a phase of parabolic price growth. Recent macroeconomic developments may further support the bullish narrative for Bitcoin. Julien Bittel, Head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investor, recently highlighted the relationship between the global M2 money supply and the price of BTC. Bittel shared a chart that overlays BTC’s price with the M2 money supply, adjusted with a 12-week lag. The data reveals a steep increase in global liquidity since early 2025, implying that BTC could follow this trend and continue rising in the months ahead. Warning Signs Still Linger For BTC Despite recent strength, not all signals are bullish. Analysts caution that the current rally has been accompanied by aggressive profit-taking, increasing the chances of a local top forming. Related Reading: Bitcoin Still Far From A True Supply Shock, Analyst Explains Further, recent analysis shows that BTC’s Demand Momentum is yet to come out of negative territory. The analyst noted that such market behavior is mostly prevalent during late-cycle distribution phases or macro-level consolidation periods. That said, Bitcoin’s Stochastic Relative Strength Index (RSI) is beginning to reflect renewed bullish momentum. At press time, BTC trades at $103,444, up 4% in the past 24 hours. Featured image created with Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant, X, and TradingView.com

Bitcoin has revisited the $100,000 mark for the first time in months, gaining nearly 5% in the past week. As of the time of writing, BTC is trading at $102,922, up 3.5% on the day and just 5.2% shy of its all-time high of $109,000 recorded in January. The latest push above this critical psychological threshold marks a renewed phase of bullish market behavior, following weeks of range-bound trading between $93,000 and $98,000. Related Reading: Massive Buy Pressure Hits Binance as Bitcoin Reclaims $100,000 Short Liquidation Clusters Ignite Rally According to insights shared by CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha, the recent rally has been driven in part by a sequence of short liquidation events on Binance. These events not only removed downward pressure from the market but also flipped the derivatives funding market, signaling a possible change in trader sentiment. Taha explained that a large cluster of short positions had accumulated in recent days, creating conditions ripe for a squeeze. Taha noted that the first key liquidation occurred at the $97,000 level, where a large number of short positions were wiped out, totaling approximately $360 million. Traders had positioned themselves for a local top, but instead, BTC broke through this zone, triggering a cascade of short covers and forced liquidations. This resulted in a rapid price acceleration as sellers were pushed to close their positions. Shortly after this surge, the price consolidated below the $101,000 mark, where another dense cluster of short interest had formed. This acted as a magnet for a second liquidation wave. When BTC breached $101,000, nearly $240 million in shorts were liquidated, contributing to a breakout that pushed the price toward $104,000. Data from liquidation heatmaps highlighted both $97,000 and $101,000 as high-liquidity targets, reinforcing the narrative that these were calculated liquidation sweeps. Bitcoin Funding Rate Shift Signals Bullish Sentiment The impact of these events extended beyond spot price movement. Taha pointed to Binance’s funding rate chart, showing that prior to the liquidation events, the funding rate was negative, a reflection of bearish bias among traders who were paying to maintain short positions. Following the twin liquidation waves, the funding rate flipped to +0.01%, a key signal that demand for long exposure was increasing. This transition from negative to positive funding is often interpreted as a shift in market structure, from bear-dominated to bull-dominated sentiment. It suggests that many traders now expect further upside, at least in the near term. Related Reading: Trump’s $6 Billion Trade Deal With The UK Pushes Bitcoin Past $100,000 Additionally, the rapid adjustment in funding rates highlights the impact that derivative market positioning can have on spot price behavior, especially during periods of thin liquidity or elevated leverage. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin’s price has finally reclaimed the $100,000 milestone after ranging below it for several weeks. This latest surge signals renewed momentum in the broader crypto market. At the time of writing, the asset trades at $100,383, reflecting a 3.5% gain over the past 24 hours. Despite this climb, Bitcoin remains roughly 8.4% % below its all-time high of $109,000 reached in January 2025, highlighting room for further upside if buying interest persists. Related Reading: Bitcoin Investors Are Taking Profits Aggressively – Signs Of A Local Top? Buy-Side Pressure Mounts as Key Metric Hits Bullish Threshold A CryptoQuant analyst has reported that the Taker Buy-Sell Ratio on Binance, which reflects the level of aggressive buying versus selling, is currently trending upward. Crazzyblockk highlighted key insights into this trend and what it may signal for Bitcoin’s price trajectory. According to the post titled “Binance Taker Buy-Sell Ratio – Your Smart Money Radar,” the ratio currently stands at 1.131, suggesting a dominant presence of market buyers over sellers. The seven-day average has trended up to 1.045, while the 30-day average shows a 12.1% surge. These readings signal bullish sentiment, although the associated z-score of 2.45 suggests that market conditions may be approaching short-term overbought levels. Crazzyblockk notes that Binance remains one of the most reliable platforms for gauging sentiment due to its deep liquidity and trading volume. The platform’s scale provides an accurate reflection of institutional and high-volume trader behavior. The analysis suggests that if the taker ratio stays above 1.1 and Bitcoin sustains the $99,000 level, bullish continuation is likely. However, a dip below 1.05 could hint at profit-taking and potential consolidation. The elevated price volatility also provides opportunities for short-term traders looking to capitalize on market swings. Bitcoin New Whales Reshape Ownership Dynamics in 2025 In a separate analysis, CryptoQuant contributor OnChainSchool has observed notable changes in the makeup of Bitcoin’s largest holders. Using on-chain data, the analyst identified a substantial increase in the number of wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC with coins aged less than 155 days, typically considered new whales. The ratio of new to old whales has risen from 0.16 to 0.28 this year, marking a 75.6% increase in their relative presence. These new wallets have collectively added over 430,000 BTC to their holdings, while older whales have trimmed their exposure by around 24,000 BTC. Despite the dynamic nature of wallet categorization, where new whales age out after 155 days, the upward trend in balances points to an influx of capital from newer, high-value investors. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Realized Cap Hits Record High as Accumulation Continues Interestingly, this coincides with the recent report of an all-time high recorded in Bitcoin’s realized cap, which signals growing confidence in BTC among holders. Bitcoin Breaks Realized Cap All-Time High for the Third Consecutive Week “This pattern reflects growing confidence among both Long-Term Holders and Short-Term Holders, who are strengthening their positions as the market shows signs of recovery.” – By @oro_crypto pic.twitter.com/rQoWq1zqHy — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) May 8, 2025 Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Undervaluation signals have previously preceded ETH rallies, but surging supply, flat demand, and weakened burn mechanics complicate the outlook.