Bitcoin's circulating supply surpassed 20 million coins on March 9, a milestone that places 95% of all BTC that will ever exist into the hands of holders and leaves fewer than 1 million coins still to be mined before the network reaches its hard cap of 21 million. The milestone was reached at block height […]
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Bitcoin is trading near $67,300, well off its recent high of $74,000. One well-known analyst says that dip barely matters — he’s looking at a cycle average closer to half a million dollars. Related Reading: WAR Token Explodes 100%, Then Crashes 20% In Sudden Sell-Off A Model Built On Scarcity PlanB, the pseudonymous analyst behind the Stock-to-Flow model, says Bitcoin’s price during the current 2024–2028 halving cycle could average around $500,000, with a range stretching from $250,000 to $1 million. The model is built on a simple premise: as Bitcoin’s supply grows more slowly — thanks to halving events that cut mining rewards roughly every four years — and demand holds steady or rises, the price should follow. Reports indicate that PlanB is careful to frame the figure as a cycle average, not a ceiling or a guaranteed peak. Bitcoin halvings reduce the number of new coins entering circulation. The most recent one took place in April 2024. Historically, each halving has been followed by a significant price run. That pattern is the backbone of PlanB’s argument. ???? Bitcoin at $67k… but S2F model screams $500k avg this cycle (2024-2028)! ???? Is BTC massively undervalued & the ultimate buy opportunity? Or is S2F broken forever? ???? What’s your take, bull or bust? pic.twitter.com/QlBhOgSgGj — PlanB (@100trillionUSD) March 8, 2026 Not Everyone Is Buying It Crypto analyst Bobby A puts his estimate at $200,000 to $250,000 by 2026 or 2027 — still a major jump from current levels, but nowhere near PlanB’s midpoint. According to Bobby A, Stock-to-Flow works as a rough long-term guide but falls short when used to pin down specific price targets in complex markets. He argues the model captures Bitcoin’s broad growth story without accounting for the many variables that move prices in real time. My take is somewhere in the middle. In my opinion, Bitcoin is currently undervalued and will likely trade toward the $200,000 to $250,000 range as this cycle matures through 2026 and into 2027. That said, I do not subscribe to the idea that Bitcoin will reach $500,000 by 2028.… https://t.co/d8wu0skKuN — Bobby A (@Bobby_1111888) March 8, 2026 That skepticism is not without basis. Stock-to-Flow drew sharp criticism after Bitcoin failed to sustain the price levels the model projected during the 2020–2024 cycle. Some analysts wrote off the model entirely. Others say it was never meant to work as a precise forecasting tool to begin with — a nuance that often gets lost in headline-driven coverage. Related Reading: Stablecoin Market Breaks Records — USDC Controls 70% Of $1.8 Trillion Volume What’s Weighing On Bitcoin Now Several outside pressures have contributed to Bitcoin’s recent pullback. Geopolitical tensions and shifting inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds — which won US regulatory approval in early 2024 — have added to short-term volatility. Data shows that ETF inflows, which helped push Bitcoin to record highs earlier this year, have been inconsistent in recent months. Reports note that many analysts view the current period as a consolidation phase following the strong rally that carried Bitcoin above $72,000. Whether that consolidation leads to a renewed push higher — or signals a longer plateau — remains an open question. PlanB’s $500,000 average would require Bitcoin to climb more than seven times its current price before the cycle ends. That’s a large number. But in a market that went from under $20,000 to over $73,000 in roughly 18 months, some investors say stranger things have happened. Featured image from Free3D.com, chart from TradingView
For crypto this week, the story is not a token-specific catalyst. It is whether an oil shock tied to the US-Iran war turns into a broader inflation problem just as the market gets February CPI on Wednesday, March 11, followed by the second estimate of fourth-quarter US GDP and the delayed January PCE report on Friday, March 13. Crypto Watchlist This Week The market opened the week with energy first, everything else second. President Donald Trump said ending the war with Iran would be a “mutual” decision with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, signaling no obvious near-term off-ramp, while Brent crude surged as high as $119.50 a barrel and WTI to $119.48. Reuters reported that Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE had begun reducing oil production as the conflict and shipping disruption through Hormuz intensified. Notably, the oil supply shock is the largest in history. BREAKING: The world is now experiencing its largest oil supply shock in history, losing nearly 20 million barrels of oil supply per day. Top oil supply shocks: 1. Hormuz Closure (NOW): -20 million b/d 2. Iranian Revolution (1978): -5.5 million b/d 3. Yom Kippur War (1973): -4.5… — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 9, 2026 That is why the macro transmission matters so much for bitcoin and the entire crypto market. In a speech published Monday, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva put it plainly: “We are seeing resilience tested yet again by the new conflict in the Middle East. Important oil and gas facilities have suffered damage and stoppages; shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen by 90 percent. If the new conflict proves prolonged, it has clear and obvious potential to affect market sentiment, growth, and inflation.” She added that every 10% increase in oil prices, if sustained through most of this year, could add 40 basis points to global headline inflation. Meanwhile, US oil prices staged one of their biggest reversals in history on Monday when hat G7 countries were reported releasing 400 million barrels of crude oil from reserves. BREAKING: US oil prices are currently attempting one of their biggest reversals in history. At 10:30 PM ET, US oil prices were up as much as +30% on the day. Then, FT reported that G7 countries are considering releasing 400 million barrels of crude oil from reserves. Less than… pic.twitter.com/G1uRHvkFxX — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 9, 2026 Wednesday’s CPI print is the first hard test. The last US CPI release, for January, showed headline inflation up 0.2% month on month and 2.4% year on year, with core CPI at 2.5% year on year. The February report is due at 8:30 a.m. ET on March 11, and market previews are looking for something in the 2.4%-2.5% annual range, with core inflation broadly steady near that zone as well. In other words, the baseline is not a dramatic reacceleration on paper; the problem is that markets now have to judge those numbers against an oil backdrop that worsened sharply after the survey period. Crude oil is approaching $110, up ~$50 in the past month. This comes as Goldman Sachs said in a weekend investor note that a sustained $10 rise in oil prices for three months could push U.S. CPI to around 3% by May. https://t.co/5vLjHAvab9 pic.twitter.com/JfTOQzwAll — Shay Boloor (@StockSavvyShay) March 8, 2026 Friday is more layered. The GDP release is not a fresh quarter, but the second estimate for Q4 2025. The advance estimate showed US growth slowing to a 1.4% annualized pace from 4.4% in Q3. As BEA wrote in the initial release, “Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025. The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter were increases in consumer spending and investment. These movements were partly offset by decreases in government spending and exports.” Some market calendars look for a small upward revision to 1.5%. The bigger crypto-sensitive number may still be the delayed January PCE report, also due Friday. December headline PCE rose 0.4% month on month and 2.9% year on year, while core PCE rose 0.4% on the month and 3.0% on the year. Current previews for January point to headline PCE holding near 2.9% year on year, with core ticking up to around 3.1%. Bitcoin was trading around $67,409 on Monday, after dipping as low as $65,618 on Sunday. That leaves it squarely in macro territory. Currently, Bitcoin’s fortunes remain tied to broader risk appetite and the tech complex, while the Iran-driven oil surge has pushed yields and the dollar higher and dimmed hopes for near-term rate cuts. The immediate read-through is straightforward: if CPI and PCE come in firm while oil stays elevated, liquidity expectations likely deteriorate further and crypto remains under pressure. If the inflation data stay contained despite the war shock, bitcoin and the broader market may get room to reprice away from pure stagflation fear. At press time, the total crypto market cap was at $2.3 trillion. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Strategy, the company that has built its identity around hoarding Bitcoin, is now sitting on paper losses — and buying more anyway. The company’s average purchase price sits at roughly $75,985 per coin, well above where Bitcoin is trading today at around $66,850. Related Reading: WAR Token Explodes 100%, Then Crashes 20% In Sudden Sell-Off That gap has pushed Strategy’s net asset value below 1, meaning the stock is worth less than the Bitcoin it holds. It is a sharp reversal for a company that long commanded a premium over its own treasury. Another Round Of Buying Despite that, co-founder Michael Saylor posted the firm’s Bitcoin accumulation chart on X over the weekend with the message, “The Second Century Begins” — his recurring signal that another purchase is coming. Strategy’s most recent buy came in the final week of February, when the company added 3,015 coins for more than $200 million, bringing its total haul to 720,737 Bitcoin. At current prices, that cache is worth roughly $48 billion. The Second Century Begins. pic.twitter.com/stZzNhLgay — Michael Saylor (@saylor) March 8, 2026 Debt And Equity Keep Fueling The Buys The company has not paused its buying despite a broad market decline. Strategy continues to fund its purchases through debt and equity offerings — a model that works smoothly when Bitcoin is climbing, but draws harder scrutiny when prices fall. With its NAV now below 1, some investors are getting Bitcoin exposure at a discount through the stock, which is a dynamic that rarely worked in Saylor’s favor before. Data from SaylorTracker shows the depth of the current shortfall. The company’s unrealized loss grows wider with each dip in Bitcoin’s price, yet the firm shows no sign of changing course. Saylor has made clear in past statements that Strategy is not a short-term trade but a long-duration bet on Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Pressure Builds Across The Bitcoin Treasury Space Strategy is not alone in feeling the squeeze. According to reports, the broader Bitcoin treasury sector could see consolidation in 2026, with cash-generating businesses moving to absorb companies that simply accumulate coins without producing revenue. Related Reading: Stablecoin Market Breaks Records — USDC Controls 70% Of $1.8 Trillion Volume Wojciech Kaszycki, chief strategy officer at treasury firm BTCS, said companies trading below net asset value are under real pressure. Consolidating with another player, “sometimes two plus two equals six or more,” he said. Saylor has brushed off that path. He said mergers and acquisitions take too long and carry too much uncertainty, noting that deals which look attractive at the start can look very different six to nine months later. Whether another purchase is confirmed remains to be seen. But if history is any guide, the chart post rarely comes without a filing to follow. Featured image from mybrokerone.com, chart from TradingView
A crypto market analyst has outlined what he describes as a straightforward mathematical method that helped identify the bottom of Bitcoin’s previous bear market. By focusing on long-term Fibonacci levels and quarterly price behavior, the analyst argues that the same structural logic that marked the 2022 bottom is now shaping Bitcoin’s next macro phase. Simple Math That Identified The Bitcoin Price Bear Market Bottom In an X post shared on March 8, crypto analyst Chetan Gurjar revisited a prediction he made in December 2022 regarding Bitcoin’s bear market low. While he acknowledged that the timing of the call was slightly off by a few months, he stated that the price target itself proved accurate. Related Reading: Bitcoin Liquidation Map Predicts The Next Targets To Watch Out For The analysis referenced Bitcoin’s bear market bottom around the $15,000 region in late 2022, which the analyst had previously projected using this framework. His approach centers on macro Fibonacci extension levels plotted on the quarterly chart, with particular focus on the 1.618 Fibonacci level positioned near $62,084. The chart accompanying the explanation highlights how Bitcoin historically reacts to this macro level. During the 2021 bull cycle, Bitcoin repeatedly failed to break and sustain price action above the 1.618 Fibonacci level. The analyst pointed to the second and fourth quarter candles of 2021, both of which were rejected at that same zone. These repeated rejections signaled strong resistance at the time, reinforcing the significance of the level in the broader market structure. By mapping these macro levels across cycles, the analyst argues that long-term Fibonacci mathematics can help identify both extreme lows and potential expansion targets. Quarterly Fibonacci Retest Suggests Next Macro Phase The analyst’s latest chart interpretation suggests that Bitcoin’s relationship with the 1.618 Fibonacci level has shifted from resistance to support. After breaking above the $62,084 region on the quarterly timeframe, Bitcoin has not produced a quarterly candle close below the level since the breakout. The chart shows two notable retests following the move. In the second and third quarters afterward, Bitcoin briefly tested the level but managed to hold above it on a closing basis. One quarterly wick even dipped below $50,000 before reclaiming the $62,084 level. As of the current quarter ending in March, Bitcoin is again trading above the same macro Fibonacci level. According to the analyst’s interpretation, this behavior represents a bullish quarterly retest. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Price Bottom Hasn’t Happened Yet, Gives Timeline To Expect Reversal The projection drawn on the chart extends toward the next Fibonacci expansion level at 2.618, which sits near $393,874. Gurjar describes this level as the minimum macro target if the structure holds. The chart also signals potential volatility, suggesting price wicks could stretch toward the $500,000 region during the expansion phase. However, the analyst notes that deeper quarterly wicks remain possible depending on broader market conditions, including potential weakness in the altcoin market. Even with that caveat, the framework presents the current structure as a continuation pattern centered on Bitcoin holding the 1.618 Fibonacci level. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
A lawsuit accusing the crypto exchange Binance of allowing terrorism financing by facilitating it has fallen apart after a US Federal court dismissed it. Not Terrorist Supporters The Troell et al. v. Binance case was dismissed in an opinion and order issued on March 6 by Judge Jeannette A. Vargas of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York. The defendants’ motions were granted against a complaint brought by 535 plaintiffs, all of whom were victims or family members of victims of terrorist attacks. Related Reading: 43% of Bitcoin Supply Is In Loss As Market Nears Bear Territory The Accusation The plaintiffs accused Binance, Changpeng “CZ” Zhao (its founder and former CEO) and BAM Trading Services (the company behind the Binance.US exchange) of facilitating 64 terrorist attacks carried out between 2016 and 2024. They claimed that Binance, Zhao and BAM Trading allowed wallets allegedly tied to Hamas, Hezbollah, ISIS, al‑Qaeda, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and Iranian proxies to move funds, amounting to aiding and abetting terrorism under the U.S. Anti‑Terrorism Act and the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act (JASTA). Why The Crypto-Terror Financing Case Fell Apart The court granted the motions to dismiss under Rule 12(b)(6), finding that the complaint failed to plausibly allege that Binance “knowingly provided substantial assistance” to the specific attacks at issue. The Judge’s Two Big Criticisms Judge Jeannette Vargas’s opinion is based on two fundamental weaknesses she identified in the plaintiffs’ theory. First, although the complaint leaned heavily on blockchain traces, sanctions‑list designations and reports of terrorist groups using Binance, it did not plausibly show that Binance, Zhao or BAM Trading knew at the time that specific wallets on the platform were controlled by FTO (Foreign Terrorist Organization) or their close associates. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bear Market Could Be Shrinking, But Are We Watching History Repeating Itself? Second, the court held that the plaintiffs failed to connect the alleged crypto flows on Binance to the 64 terrorist attacks they invoked. The complaint mapped out millions of dollars in transactions involving “FTO‑associated” or Iran‑linked wallets and described a broad ecosystem built to fund operations, but it did not identify who owned the wallets at issue, when specific transfers took place, what role those transfers played in operational planning. It also didn’t identify how any given Binance‑processed transaction materially advanced the specific bombings, rocket attacks, shootings, hostage‑takings, or the Wizard Spider ransomware incident that harmed the 535 plaintiffs. The Law Behind The Reasoning Under the U.S. Anti‑Terrorism Act and JASTA (The Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act), it is not enough to show that designated terrorist organizations or sanctioned Iranian actors touched a platform at some point in time. Victims must plausibly allege that the defendant knew who it was dealing with and that its conduct was closely linked to the attacks at issue, not just to terrorism “in general.” In this case, the judge held that generalized allegations about “terrorist‑associated wallets” on Binance, and references to lax KYC (Know Your Customer), VPN loopholes, and U.S. user evasion, did not amount to a concrete showing that Binance’s services materially advanced the operations that the plaintiffs suffered. Plaintiffs still have 60 days to refile, so, in truth, Binance is not entirely out of the woods yet. Besides, Binance remains under intense scrutiny: the exchange is still navigating a $4.3 billion AML and sanctions plea deal, a court‑appointed monitor, and political pressure in Washington over alleged terror‑finance exposure, as detailed by Bitcoinist and NewsBTC. BTC's price trends to the downside on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview
One person — or entity — controls 31% of all WAR tokens in circulation. That single fact sits quietly in the background as the Solana-based memecoin grabs headlines for one of the more dramatic two-day price swings in the current crypto cycle. The coin doubled on Friday. Today, nearly a quarter of those gains had been erased. Related Reading: Stablecoin Market Breaks Records — USDC Controls 70% Of $1.8 Trillion Volume On Unrest & Geopolitical Events WAR, which stands for Western Asset Reserve, bills itself as a geopolitical sentiment token — a coin whose price is meant to move with world events, particularly armed conflicts. It does not track war through any technical mechanism. The connection is purely narrative. When headlines about global tensions spread, traders buy in. When attention moves elsewhere, prices follow. According to data from CoinMarketCap, WAR fell from an intraday peak above $0.60 to around $0.028 during the selloff, Monday. Trading volume dropped roughly 20% over the same 24-hour window to approximately $22 million, with its total market cap sitting near $28 million. Token Migration Brought In Fresh Traders And Fresh Money Before the surge, WAR completed a platform move. The project shifted from Bonk.fun to Pump.fun, a more widely used launchpad on the Solana network. The team announced the migration window would stay open for seven days, after which a new contract would be deployed on Pump.fun. Token holders who missed the window would face a 10% tax on late claims, with a 90-day window to complete them. The move expanded WAR’s reach. On the day of the migration, trading volume climbed above $24 million as more retail participants gained access through Pump.fun’s broader toolset. Reports indicate the platform switch played a role in drawing fresh attention to the token ahead of its price spike. WAR launched earlier this year on Bonk.fun. Unlike memecoins built around animal mascots or celebrity names, it leaned into real-world conflict as its identity. Over roughly three months, its price rose 650% on the back of media attention and trader speculation. WAR Follows A Pattern Familiar To PolitiFi Token Watchers WAR is part of a group of tokens known as PolitiFi, which refers to tokens that are based on politics or international events, as opposed to technology. Other tokens in this group include TRUMP, MELANIA, LIBRA, among others. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETFs Break 5-Month Streak With 2nd Consecutive Week Of Inflows All these tokens have seen similar patterns in their price movement, with initial explosive increases in price, only to plummet as quickly as they began. From reports, it is evident that there is a plan in place by the development team for governance, as well as merchandise, though these plans are yet to be implemented. The liquidity of the token is mainly found in Solana-based exchanges, contributing to the volatility in its price over the last two days. With one individual owning nearly one-third of the supply, it is likely that the next move of the token will be determined by events in the world tomorrow, as opposed to events in the world of cryptocurrency. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView
Like other altcoins in the space, the Cardano price has suffered a tremendous amount of losses over the last few months. This relentless sell-off has pushed the ADA price so low that it is now sitting at levels not seen since the last bear market. Even now, Cardano remains in danger of further decline, as explained by crypto analyst Lingrid in a recent analysis. Why Cardano Could Crash Further The major problem being faced by the Cardano price now is that the bulls have failed a number of times to reclaim control from the bears. With each failure, the hold by the bears becomes stronger, furthering the possibility of a bearish continuation. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bear Market Could Be Shrinking, But Are We Watching History Repeating Itself? In the analysis, crypto analyst Lingrid revealed that Cardano remains below the consolidation support at $0.26. As a result of this, the cryptocurrency has now started moving below its former structure. At the same time, the price is also below the descending resistance, showing a lot of weakness. Despite the recent recovery, the fact that the altcoin’s price eventually moved back downward proved that bears are still in control of the market. The downside of this is that the bearish continuation is likely from here, especially as the price has also been rejected at $0.26, and the price could crash further. The only way this move gets invalidated is if the Cardano price were to successfully reclaim and break above $0.27 again. 6 Months Of Red With the red close of the month of February, Cardano marked five consecutive months of red closes, making it the third time in history that this has happened, according to data from CryptoRank. The first time was back in 2021-2022, when the bear market had begun, and then again, that year, Cardano recorded another five consecutive months of red closes. Related Reading: Pundit Says XRP Price Could Reach $1,000 By End Of 2026 If This Happens While the last time ended with a major surge in the sixth month, the Cardano price is already down by more than 11% in the month of March, suggesting that the red trend could continue. Now, back in 2021-2022, was the first time in history that the digital asset saw 6 red monthly candles, and what followed was interesting. After the sixth month of red in February 2022, the Cardano price had begun to surge, eventually ending the next month with gains of 18%. However, after this, the bleed continued, and Cardano fell further. Now, if this trend were to repeat itself, then the cryptocurrency could see a relief bounce after the sixth month of red. But this would not mean an end to the decline, but rather, a precursor to more decline. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
Why did NYSE parent ICE choose to invest in and partner with crypto exchange OKX? What exactly is ICE trying to achieve here?
A Blockstream executive made waves on social media Saturday with a striking comparison: US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have pulled in roughly the same amount of cumulative investor money as gold ETFs collected over their first 15 years — and Bitcoin did it in less than two. Related Reading: Stablecoin Market Breaks Records — USDC Controls 70% Of $1.8 Trillion Volume The Numbers Behind The Claim Fernando Nikolić, Blockstream’s director of marketing, posted the observation on X, adding that the milestone came during a period when Bitcoin had dropped 46% from its peak and spent several months trending downward. His point was that institutional money kept flowing into Bitcoin products even as prices fell hard. The claim drew attention because gold ETFs had a significant head start in the market — more than a decade — before Bitcoin products even existed. spot bitcoin ETFs matched 15 years of cumulative gold ETF inflows in under two years gold had a fifteen year head start and bitcoin caught it in twenty months absolute cinema ???? and this happened during a 46% drawdown btw during five red months while most of your timeline… pic.twitter.com/TuK5E2WZsq — Fernando Nikolić ???????? ???? (@basedlayer) March 8, 2026 The data backing the broader story comes from SoSoValue, which tracks daily and weekly flows into US spot crypto ETFs. According to that data, Bitcoin ETFs brought in around $568 million this week. The prior week saw roughly $787 million come in. Back-to-back positive weeks like that haven’t happened since early October last year — a stretch of about five months during which money was consistently leaving these funds. Before the recent stretch of inflows, the bleeding was significant. Reports indicate Bitcoin ETFs shed approximately $3.8 billion across five straight weeks of net withdrawals. The worst single week came around January 30, when investors pulled out close to $1.50 billion in one stretch. Day-By-Day, The Picture Gets Messier The weekly totals look clean. The daily breakdown does not. This week, Bitcoin ETFs took in $458 million on Monday, another $225 million on Tuesday, and a strong $462 million on Wednesday. Then the direction flipped. Thursday brought $228 million in outflows, and Friday saw close to $350 million leave the funds. The week ended positive, but just barely held together in the final sessions. Ether ETFs followed a similar pattern on a smaller scale. The funds recorded their second straight week of net inflows, collecting around $23.56 million after posting a little over $80 million the prior week. That two-week run marks the first consecutive weekly gains for Ether products since early October. Before that, five uninterrupted weeks of withdrawals drained more than $1.38 billion from those funds, with the week ending January 23 alone accounting for roughly $611 million in redemptions. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETFs Bleed $349M In A Day As Whales Dump, Small Buyers Step In: Analysts A Rebound With Uneven Footing Two positive weeks for both Bitcoin and Ether ETFs signal a shift, but the daily choppiness tells a more complicated story. Large inflows early in the week gave way to sizable redemptions by Thursday and Friday — a pattern that suggests some investors remain cautious even as fresh money enters. Featured image from Online Casinos, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has fallen back below $70,000 as selling pressure continues to dominate among crypto traders. Notably, there is currently little sign of strong buying demand that could stop further downside and the current structure still leaves room for a Bitcoin price drop below $60,000. Interestingly, technical analysis shows that the Bitcoin price action is beginning to resemble the pattern it created during the 2022 bear market, with long-term data showing that Bitcoin’s bear cycles have gradually become less severe over time. Related Reading: Stablecoin Market Breaks Records — USDC Controls 70% Of $1.8 Trillion Volume Bitcoin’s Bear Market Cycles Are Shrinking Technical analysis of Bitcoin’s entire price history shows that post-cycle drawdowns have been compressing with almost mechanical precision. This pattern hiding in plain sight was laid out by crypto analyst CrypFlow on the social media platform X. According to the analyst, each major bear market has produced a smaller percentage decline than the previous one, starting with a 93% collapse after the 2011 top. The 2013 top was followed by an 87% collapse. After the run of 2017, the market gave back 84%. Lastly, when the 2021 bull cycle peaked, the subsequent bear market stopped at a comparatively modest 78% decline. The argument is that Bitcoin’s growth into a deeper, more liquid market has gradually reduced the kind of downside volatility that defined its early years. Based on that context, the next major bear market low would not need to rival the bloodshed of prior cycles. Therefore, it is safe to assume a worst-case scenario of a 70% drawdown from Bitcoin’s 2025 peak price of $126,080. Extrapolating that compression forward, a 70% crash from the 2025 cycle top would place Bitcoin somewhere around $37,000. However, the analyst also noted that this price is not a bottom forecast. It is also worth noting that Bitcoin has never closed a monthly candle below the previous cycle top during a bear market. In this case, that previous cycle top is 2021’s peak around $69,000. Familiar 2022 Bull Trap And Possible Drop To $50,000 Bitcoin’s bear market cycles might be shrinking, but a look at the current price pattern shows it might be playing out just like it did in the 2022 bear market. This was revealed in a setup by a crypto analyst that goes by the name Chiefy on X. In that setup, Bitcoin’s current price action was placed side by side with the 2022 bear market, with both periods showing what a textbook sequence of a bear trap followed by a bull trap. In September 2022, Bitcoin staged what appeared to be a recovery bounce at $18,000 after a brutal descent. However, this led to a bull trap around $21,000 that lured buyers in before the price action rolled over and carved out fresh lows. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETFs Bleed $349M In A Day As Whales Dump, Small Buyers Step In: Analysts The script playing out in early 2026, according to this analysis, is identical. The bear trap in this case was Bitcoin’s fall to $60,000 in February and then another bull trap as it pushed to $74,000. If the 2022 analogy holds, that bounce is not a recovery. It is a setup, and the next Bitcoin price low, the analyst warns, is around $50,000. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @0xChiefy On X Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Spot Bitcoin ETFs listed in the US recorded their steepest single-day outflow in nearly three weeks on Friday, with $349 million pulled from all 11 products combined, according to data from Farside. Related Reading: Stablecoin Market Breaks Records — USDC Controls 70% Of $1.8 Trillion Volume The withdrawals came as Bitcoin slid back toward $68,000 after briefly touching $74,000 earlier in the week — a run-up that, based on on-chain data, appears to have been the trigger for a significant wave of selling by large holders. Big Holders Bought Low, Then Sold Fast Crypto analytics platform Santiment tracked the behavior of wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 Bitcoin — a group commonly referred to as whales — and found they had been building positions aggressively between Feb. 23 and March 3, when prices were stuck in the $62,900 to $69,600 range. Once Bitcoin crossed $74,000 on Wednesday, those same wallets began offloading. By Friday, roughly 66% of what they had accumulated over that 10-day window had been sold back into the market. Smaller investors moved in the opposite direction. Wallets holding less than 0.01 Bitcoin — the retail end of the market — have been adding to their positions as prices fell. According to Santiment, that kind of divergence between large and small holders has historically pointed to more downside ahead. “When retail buys while whales sell, it typically signals that the correction is not yet over,” the platform said in a Friday report. Fear Gauge Drops To Its Lowest Reading In Weeks Bitcoin’s slide pushed the Crypto Fear & Greed Index down six points to a score of 12 on Saturday, placing it deep in “Extreme Fear” territory. The index measures market sentiment across a range of factors including volatility, trading volume, and social media activity. Some analysts said that Bitcoin could still face another drop if buyers fail to defend the current price zone. A loss of support around the $67,000–$68,000 range may trigger a move back toward recent lows to gather liquidity before any potential rebound. An Economist’s Case For A $60K Floor Not everyone sees a breakdown coming. Economist Timothy Peterson pointed to the Bitcoin Price to Metcalfe Value chart — a model that measures Bitcoin’s price against the estimated value of its network based on user activity — and said the $60,000 level has held as a bottom in every prior cycle. “About 99.5% chance it stays above $60k,” Peterson wrote on X. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Brief Rally Isn’t The End Of The Bear Market, Analysts Say Bitcoin had already tested that level once this cycle, falling to $60,000 on Feb. 6 during a broader pullback from an all-time high of $126,000 set in October. Since then, it has managed a partial recovery, though Friday’s ETF outflows and the continued whale selling suggest the market has not yet found stable footing. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView
Billions of dollars in fresh USDC were printed in just the first week of March — a minting pace that, if sustained, could push Circle’s total for the month past $12 billion. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Brief Rally Isn’t The End Of The Bear Market, Analysts Say That surge is one sign of the momentum behind a broader milestone: total stablecoin transfer volume hit $1.8 trillion in February, the highest monthly figure on record. USDC Pulls Far Ahead Of Tether USDC, issued by Circle Internet Group, accounted for roughly 70% of all stablecoin transfers last month — about $1.26 trillion. Tether’s USDT logged $514 billion over the same period. That gap surprised some analysts, given that Tether holds the larger market cap by a wide margin — $184 billion compared to USDC’s $77.4 billion. According to Simon Dedic, founder of Moonrock Capital, USDC has “consistently flipped” Tether on transfer volume over the past several months. The disparity means each dollar of USDC is moving far more often than each dollar of USDT. Data from blockchain analytics firm Allium confirmed the February figures. Circle’s business has been growing fast. The company posted strong earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by rapid expansion of USDC’s payment operations. Partnerships with platforms such as Polymarket have added to that momentum. Tether’s supply, by comparison, has held relatively flat through the start of March while USDC continues to be printed at speed. What Rising Stablecoin Supply Means For Markets More stablecoins on exchanges generally means more money ready to buy crypto. On March 5 alone, roughly $5.14 billion in stablecoins flowed into exchanges — up from $1.14 billion just four days earlier on March 1. The total stablecoin supply sitting on exchanges climbed to a three-week high of $66.5 billion by Friday. Historically, big jumps in exchange stablecoin supply have preceded crypto price rallies, as sidelined capital gets redeployed into the market. Bitcoin briefly pushed toward $74,000 this week, partly lifted by that stablecoin inflow. The Stablecoin Supply Ratio — which measures Bitcoin’s market cap against total stablecoin market cap — has been recovering after a sharp drop in February. CIRCLE JUST MINTED $250M $USDC Circle just minted another $250M USDC on Solana. They’ve minted over $3 BILLION in just this first week of March. If Circle continue at this pace, they’re on track to mint over $12 Billion USDC by the end of the month. pic.twitter.com/aoQKi6zbFE — Arkham (@arkham) March 7, 2026 A Closer Look At The Numbers The February record was not just about USDC. Overall stablecoin adoption has been climbing. Florida’s state senate passed a stablecoin bill this week, which now awaits the governor’s signature. Related Reading: SEC Vs. Justin Sun Case Ends In $10M Settlement, Traders Eye TRX Price Reaction Regulatory movement at the state level, combined with growing institutional use of dollar-backed tokens for payments and settlement, has kept demand rising. USDC’s $1.26 trillion in February transfers marks the highest monthly total since the stablecoin launched in September 2018. Reports indicate Circle has already minted more than $3 billion in USDC in March’s first week, with Arkham data showing one single mint of $250 million on Solana. Featured image from Bitkub Academy, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin’s initial break above the 6-figure price point back in 2024, and then the eventual move to an all-time high of $126,000, has fueled the expectations of higher price points. Even now, as the price continues to trend below $100,000, it has done little to erase the bullish momentum surrounding the cryptocurrency, especially in the long term. As a result, predictions continue to come out that the Bitcoin price will eventually trade at 6-figures again, and eventually, new all-time highs. Mapping The Bitcoin Price Recovery In a post on the TradingView website, Setupsfx points out an interesting thing about the Bitcoin price chart and why this is bullish for the digital asset. After the Bitcoin price reclaimed $70,000 earlier in the week, it set the tone for another recovery trend, and the analyst suggests that this means that the price can still climb to $200,000. Related Reading: Pundit Says XRP Price At $100 Is Not Insane If You Understand This The analysis highlights that, unlike before, the break above $72,000 came with strong bullish volume. What this simply means is that there is a lot of demand right now for the cryptocurrency, and that is what is driving the current uptrend. If this holds, then the price is likely to continue upward rather than experience another crash. Following the current trend, the analysis sets the first major Bitcoin target at the $104,000 level. This is important because there is a liquidity void sitting in this area. This means that there could be a stop to the uptrend at this level, being a major point of resistance. However, all hope is not lost at this point because it simply shows how important it is to break this resistance. Once this breaks, it sets the cryptocurrency on the path to the next major target, which lies at $124,000. Reaching $124,000 would be momentous for the Bitcoin price as this is just below its current all-time high levels. Related Reading: Dogecoin Morning Doji Star Shows Bullish Reversal That Will Send Price To $0.8 The final target for this analysis actually lies at the $134,000 level, which could deem the uptrend complete. As for the rally to $200,000, the analyst explains that this is still possible, despite many saying that it is unrealistic. Mainly, the $200,000 target is set for the long-term view of the cryptocurrency. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) began the week with a sharp rebound that briefly lifted the world’s largest cryptocurrency back toward the $74,000 mark on Wednesday for the first time in more than a month. However, as the week comes to a close, that momentum has faded, with BTC sliding back to roughly $68,260. Even with the choppy price action, on-chain analytics firm Amber Data argues that the broader outlook for Bitcoin remains constructive. In its latest market report, the firm suggests that new all-time highs are still possible this year. Post-Liquidation Reset Amber Data describes Bitcoin as entering 2026 in an unusual position. The market, it says, has been “de-risked” following October’s liquidation event, which they assert flushed out excessive leverage from the market. In the report, they contend that open interest had climbed to “unsustainable levels,” the basis trade had become overcrowded, and funding rates reflected stretched positioning. Related Reading: Bank Resistance Puts 2026 Passage Of Crypto Market Structure Bill In Doubt, Reuters When headlines surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariff policies hit the market, the overleveraged structure was unable to withstand the selling pressure. The result was a cascade of liquidations that wiped out weak hands and reset positioning. While painful, the correction served a purpose. Valuations have since normalized, leverage has been largely cleared from the system, and the Bitcoin market structure appears healthier, Amber Data noted. Yet the recovery remains fragile. Liquidity is still impaired, and the carry trade — once a major driver of activity — is no longer especially attractive. In Amber Data’s view, the market is now structurally sound but lacks a clear catalyst to define its next major move. ‘Muddle Through’ Phase In its base case, which it assigns a 50% probability, Bitcoin trades between $90,000 and $120,000. This outcome envisions extended consolidation until a meaningful macro catalyst emerges. Under this “muddle through” scenario, conditions neither worsen dramatically nor improve significantly. Volatility compresses, enthusiasm cools, and both bullish breakout expectations and bearish collapse predictions are repeatedly frustrated. Early signs supporting this scenario would include basis annual percentage rates recovering to 8–10%, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows turning consistently positive, order book depth returning toward pre-crash conditions, and funding rates stabilizing in positive territory. 25% Chance Bitcoin Breakout To $180,000 Amber Data assigns a 25% probability to a more optimistic outcome, with Bitcoin climbing between $120,000 and $180,000. In this bull case, institutional participation accelerates alongside sovereign adoption, creating a feedback loop of expanding flows. Early confirmation signals would include weekly Bitcoin ETF inflows exceeding $1 billion, basis rates expanding beyond 15% as leverage demand surges, and new accumulation cohorts appearing in HODL wave data, indicating fresh capital entering at scale. Bear Case Targets $60,000 On the downside, Amber Data assigns a 20% probability to a bearish scenario in which Bitcoin trades between $60,000 and $80,000. This would occur if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate more sharply than currently expected and global markets shift decisively into risk-off mode. Warning signs would include sustained ETF outflows exceeding $1 billion per week, basis yields collapsing below 3%, widespread stablecoin redemptions signaling capital flight, and a potential test of the $80,000 ETF cost basis level. Related Reading: XRP Faces High Risk Of Breakdown Below $1.30, Expert Flags Bitcoin As Main Threat Finally, the firm outlines a 5% probability “volatility and chop” scenario, in which Bitcoin trades between $75,000 and $110,000 with no sustained directional trend. Indicators would include sharply fluctuating funding rates, repeated spikes and collapses in open interest as positions are liquidated on both sides, and inconsistent ETF flows alternating between inflows and outflows without a clear pattern. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Exhausted sellers may be giving Bitcoin some breathing room — but analysts say that’s a long way from a recovery. Related Reading: SEC Vs. Justin Sun Case Ends In $10M Settlement, Traders Eye TRX Price Reaction US Buyers Return, Pushing Prices Off Multi-Week Lows Data from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant shows the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium — a measure of US-based buying demand — has flipped from its most negative readings in early February to its highest point since October. That shift helped carry Bitcoin to a one-month high of $74,000 on Thursday, briefly touching the 50-day exponential moving average. It didn’t last. By Friday morning, the price had dropped more than $3,000, sliding back below $71,000 as momentum faded almost as fast as it built. The rally came alongside a wave of ETF inflows and what Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, called “renewed risk appetite.” But even as buyers stepped in, the broader conditions hadn’t changed. Ruck said that the advance “quickly faced headwinds,” with macro uncertainty and softer economic signals pulling the market back down. Bitcoin is still in a bear market despite the recent rally. Our Bull Score Index remains at 10/100, deep in bearish territory. The current move is likely just a relief rally, not the start of a new bull phase. pic.twitter.com/bh4O6jQPD6 — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) March 5, 2026 Bear Market Indicators Remain At Historic Lows CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index — a composite reading of Bitcoin’s technical and fundamental health — sits at just 10 out of 100. That places it, by the firm’s own assessment, deep in negative territory. Reports from the firm say the number hasn’t moved despite the recent price action. “Even after the recent price rally, fundamental and technical indicators still point to a bear market environment,” CryptoQuant stated Thursday. The firm was blunt about what the brief climb likely represents: a short-term release of pressure, not a turning point. Unrealized losses among traders and long-term holders had reached levels last seen in July 2022 before the recent easing. That kind of exhaustion can slow a slide without reversing it. One signal pointing to easing pressure emerged Friday, when analysts said market momentum appears to be approaching a “critical shift.” According to their assessment, Bitcoin may be moving out of a phase marked by peak negative momentum — a stage that has often preceded broader changes in market direction. What follows that shift, and how quickly it unfolds, remains uncertain. Related Reading: Solana Stablecoins Hit $650 Billion In Monthly Transactions Macro Headwinds Keep A Lid On Any Optimism February nonfarm payrolls data, expected to show a slowdown, loomed as an added weight on sentiment. Analysts pointed to those “softer macro signals” as a reason cryptocurrencies remain open to fresh downside. Liquidity conditions had been supportive enough to spark the relief move, but not strong enough to sustain it. Bitcoin’s brief climb above $74,000 drew attention. The pullback drew more. With the Bull Score Index anchored near the floor and macro conditions still unsettled, analysts are watching for whether US buying demand holds — or fades just like the rally did. Featured image from Defenders of Wildlife, chart from TradingView
Apollo Crypto has made Hyperliquid its largest altcoin position, with head of research Pratik Kala arguing that the protocol stands apart not only because of its product-market fit, but because its token design and expanding market structure give traders something few crypto venues currently offer: usable, revenue-linked infrastructure. In comments shared via X, Kala described Hyperliquid in unusually direct terms. “Hyperliquid is our biggest altcoin position in the fund. Why? Because it is phenomenal. The product works,” he said. For Apollo, the case appears to rest on two pillars: the exchange’s traction as a trading venue, and a token model Kala framed as cleaner and more transparent than much of the industry’s recent experimentation. He contrasted Hyperliquid’s buyback structure with the more convoluted token systems that defined earlier market cycles. “The tokenomics is refreshing. It uses 97 to 99%, depending on how you want to calculate it, of all the revenues to buy back its token in a very transparent manner. No governance mumbo-jumbo. No, you know, a token feeding into some other token and some dynamic inflation, burning, minting stuff that has destroyed many people’s capital and brains, to be frank, over the last few years.” Related Reading: Next “Binance Killer”? Hyperliquid Now Dominates DeFi Derivatives, New Report Shows That framing is central to Apollo’s thesis. Kala’s argument is not simply that Hyperliquid has momentum, but that it has paired a working product with a token accrual model that traders can actually follow. In a sector where valuation stories often hinge on future governance or vague utility, he presented Hyperliquid as comparatively straightforward: trading activity generates revenue, and that revenue feeds token buybacks. He also pointed to adoption trends. According to Kala, “a lot of the volumes are going there,” while market makers and funds are increasingly using the platform. He argued that Hyperliquid has been superior “in many, many ways,” particularly in how it handles new listings, pre-markets and other product extensions. A major part of the bullish case, though, is HIP-3, which Kala said is already opening up tradable opportunities outside the usual crypto schedule. He described a weekend trade tied to news that OpenAI had secured a contract after Anthropic would not allow its AI technology to be used by the Department of Defense. Because the development broke while traditional markets were closed, Kala said most market participants were effectively stuck on the sidelines. “Personally, I made 50%. How? Because HIP3, OpenAI, Anthropic were both trading on HIP3,” he said. “Liquidity is not fantastic, but OpenAI went up 50% on the weekend. Anthropic was static, could have expected that you could have taken a spread trade where you can short Anthropic and long open AI. Do it on HIP3, you can make money, you can generate alpha.” That example gets to the broader point Apollo is making. HIP-3 is not being pitched merely as another product vertical, but as a venue where traders can express event-driven views in assets that are normally inaccessible when news breaks. Kala said the market now includes private-market trading as well as listed equities and commodities such as oil, gold and silver on weekends. Related Reading: Hyperliquid (HYPE) Eyes Native Token Issuance With Latest Upgrade Plan He offered one data point to show early traction: during a recent silver mania, HIP-3 briefly accounted for 1% to 2% of global silver volumes, despite having launched only around a month to six weeks earlier. For Kala, that signals not retail novelty but serious engagement from hedge funds, sophisticated investors and active portfolio managers looking for round-the-clock execution. He added that HIP-3 revenues are split 50-50 between deployed markets and Hyperliquid, with Hyperliquid’s share feeding back into HYPE buybacks. From Apollo’s perspective, that strengthens the flywheel rather than diluting it. Kala also flagged what could come next. He said HIP-4, focused on prediction markets and options, could push the platform further, while regulatory shifts in the US may eventually open a path for a KYC-compliant version there. Competition exists, he acknowledged, including from rival platforms such as Lighter. But in Apollo’s view, Hyperliquid has already done something harder than launching a new venue: it has captured trader attention, liquidity and, increasingly, loyalty. At press time, HYPE traded at $30.485. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Shiba Inu’s price trajectory has continued to disappoint investors with what seems like a never-ending sell-off. As a result of one year of downtrend, the Shiba Inu price has dropped more than 93% from its 2021 all-time high, now barely resting on levels not seen in two years. While this is going on, though, the bulls seem to be ramping up as the Falling Wedge Support continues to hold strong. Now, the question is, what happens if bulls are able to facilitate a bounce? Why Shiba Inu Could See A 500% Bounce According to crypto analyst Jonathan Carter, the Shiba Inu price is now sitting in a unique position that could trigger the next upward wave. This has to do with the Falling Wedge Support still holding strong, even after multiple attempts to break it. Related Reading: XRP Price Gears Up For A Major 680% Move Against Bitcoin To Reach $10 This shows that the level around $0.0000054 has become a stronghold for bulls. Thus, it has become an important entry level for investors looking to get back in, provided that the bulls are able to continue holding this support and trigger a lift-off from here. Once this support and the eventual bounce is completed, the first major level that the analyst outlines is at $0.0000068. It is the first of all the major targets that the Shiba Inu price has to surmount before continuing its journey toward the final target. Next on the list is the $0.00001, which has become a major psychological level and resistance. Once this is completed, then it leads to the third major resistance lying at $0.000013. However, bulls might find it easier to beat this level given how it has performed in the past. Related Reading: Expert Trader Says Bitcoin Surge To $220,000 Is Coming, But This Will Happen First The fourth target on the list lies at $0.000016, and at this point, the price would have risen 3x already. The uptrend could be in full bloom by then, leading to the next major support at $0.000022, where the bulls are likely to encounter the most resistance. The last and final target is placed at $0.000033 by the analyst. Going by the analysis, this would be the ideal level to sell after buying at $0.0000054. “Buyers are defending this established support zone as strength emerges from the consolidation phase,” the analyst said. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
Rainberry Inc., the company behind BitTorrent, agreed to pay a $10 million settlement that ends a long-running case with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. The agreement lets the regulator dismiss its remaining civil claims against Justin Sun and affiliated foundations with prejudice, meaning the SEC cannot refile those specific charges. Related Reading: Solana Stablecoins Hit $650 Billion In Monthly Transactions Sun acquired BitTorrent and integrated it into his Tron blockchain ecosystem, linking Rainberry and the BitTorrent Token (BTT) to his crypto operations. Officials framed the settlement as closure rather than an admission of wrongdoing. Settlement Reduces Regulatory Overhang For Crypto Projects Reports indicate the SEC’s case targeted allegations tied to token sales, trading practices, and unregistered offerings involving TRX and BTT. By resolving the matter through Rainberry’s payment, civil claims against Sun and the Tron Foundation were dismissed. Analysts say the move clears a major legal hurdle and may reassure exchanges, investors, and partners that the immediate regulatory risk has been reduced. Justin Sun’s Role And Statements On The Outcome Justin Sun and spokespeople emphasized that he did not admit wrongdoing. Sun framed the settlement as an opportunity to focus on product development, partnerships, and community engagement within the Tron ecosystem. Public filings now reflect that Rainberry’s payment closes its portion of the case while reinforcing Sun’s ongoing leadership of the integrated BTT and TRX network. The Chinese cryptocurrency entrepreneur Justin Sun reached a $10 million settlement to resolve a US Securities and Exchange Commission civil fraud case over his trading activity https://t.co/qJoSVO20WC — Reuters (@Reuters) March 6, 2026 Traders Watch For TRX Price Breakout The market wasted no time reacting. Trading volume on TRX spiked on settlement news, though key resistance levels around $0.15 remained untested as of Thursday. This caution is consistent with where TRX has been for the last 18 months. TRX, at the time of writing, was trading at $0.285, meaning that its value is not in line with the record number of transactions being made on chain. At this point, the market is still pricing in the potential risk of an SEC lawsuit and not valuing TRX for being the most used stablecoin network in the world. Traders are viewing this settlement as lowering their legal exposure, and therefore will not consider this to be the “big” catalyst to move TRX up in price. Traders are chasing liquidity, depth of buy/sell orders, and the overall macro conditions of crypto when trading TRX. From a legal perspective, it is important to note that although this particular case has now closed, public accusations of wrongdoing remain on record. As a result, both exchanges and custodians must continue to be vigilant in complying with regulations. Related Reading: XRP To Pass Bitcoin, US Veteran Claims Amid War Forecast Foundations and Ecosystem Outlook The Tron Foundation has been focusing on developing technical solutions and providing support for projects within its ecosystem. The SEC settlement removes one of the obstacles to developing business and joint venture partnerships. However, restoring confidence in the ecosystem will take some time. Featured image from Crosley Law, chart from TradingView
In a report published Thursday, Reuters said the long-anticipated crypto market structure legislation, known as the CLARITY Act, may be at risk of not being signed into law in 2026. The uncertainty comes as opposition from the banking sector intensifies, particularly over key provisions tied to stablecoin regulation. Deadlock In Crypto Legislation Per the report, the legislation has run into a fresh stalemate after banks declined to support a compromise proposal advanced by the White House. That breakdown in negotiations has cast serious doubt on whether Congress can move the bill forward before the legislative window narrows ahead of the midterm election season. Banks have objected to provisions that would permit stablecoin issuers and other crypto firms to offer yield-bearing products and customer rewards. Lenders argue that such incentives could siphon deposits away from traditional banks, making it more difficult for them to fund loans and support credit creation. Related Reading: XRP Price Retests Decade-Old Trendline That Previously Triggered 630%+ Rallies Crypto companies, for their part, maintain that the ability to offer rewards is essential to attract users and remain competitive. They argue that prohibiting such incentives would amount to an anti-competitive restriction designed to protect incumbents. In an attempt to break the deadlock, the White House stepped in last month to broker a compromise. The administration proposed allowing stablecoin rewards in limited contexts, such as for peer-to-peer (P2P) payment activity, while prohibiting rewards on idle balances. Four individuals familiar with the private negotiations said the proposal was intended to strike a balance between innovation and deposit stability. Crypto firms have reportedly accepted that compromise. However, banks have signaled they still cannot support it. Banking Sector Seeks Stricter Reward Rules Two sources told Reuters that lenders want far stricter limits on the types of activities eligible for rewards. A senior White House official indicated that banks remain concerned that even the narrower framework could accelerate deposit flight. A banking industry source added that some lenders believe the permitted activities under the compromise would still meaningfully weaken deposit bases. Several senators are said to back the banking sector’s position, and industry representatives believe they may be able to secure more favorable terms with that political support. Beyond the stablecoin dispute, the bill faces additional political hurdles. Lawmakers are divided over provisions related to ethics and illicit finance. Time Running Out For CALRITY Act’s Approval Time is another significant obstacle. Senate floor time is limited, particularly as lawmakers prepare to leave Washington in the summer to begin campaigning for the midterm elections. Adrian Wall, managing director of the Digital Sovereignty Alliance, a pro-crypto advocacy group, said the window for passage is rapidly closing. If the bill is not approved and sent to the President by July, he argued, it will become increasingly difficult to revive momentum before the elections. Related Reading: Bitcoin Tops $73,000, Expert Explains Why The Rally Isn’t Over Yet The political calculus could become even more complicated after November. If Democrats gain seats in Congress, prospects for passing crypto-friendly legislation could diminish further. Geopolitical developments are adding further uncertainty. According to Brian Gardner, chief Washington strategist at Stifel, the war in Iran is making it even more challenging for Congress to devote attention to crypto regulation this year. In a note published Tuesday, Gardner wrote that the legislative calendar is increasingly working against the bill. “The calendar is becoming the enemy of this bill,” he said. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
XRP has climbed back above the $1.40 mark this week, a level that previously acted as resistance, but analysts warn that the rally does not eliminate the risk of a deeper pullback. The cryptocurrency’s most critical support zone at $1.30 remains under pressure, and broader market forces—particularly Bitcoin’s (BTC) price action—could determine what happens next. XRP Locked Between $1.30 Support And $1.50 Resistance In a recent report, analyst Sam Daodu described $1.30 as the most heavily tested support level for XRP so far in 2026. Since February, the token has repeatedly slipped into the low $1.30 range, only to find buyers stepping in before a decisive breakdown could occur. Related Reading: Bitcoin Tops $73,000, Expert Explains Why The Rally Isn’t Over Yet According to Daodu, a key reason XRP has continued to defend this area is that it is slightly lower, around $1.27. On-chain cost basis data indicates that roughly 443 million XRP were accumulated at that price level. As the market approaches this entry point, many of these holders have added to their positions, creating buying pressure that has consistently pushed the price back above $1.30. For now, Daodu sees XRP trading within a clearly defined range, with $1.30 acting as the floor and $1.50 serving as resistance. The analyst said a meaningful shift in trend would require a breakout beyond one of those levels, and the direction of that move will likely depend on external catalysts. Bitcoin And Middle East Tensions As Key Threats Bitcoin stands out as the most significant variable. XRP and BTC are currently moving in close alignment, with a reported correlation of 0.84. Historically, XRP has tended to magnify Bitcoin’s price swings by roughly 1.8 times. In practical terms, that means a 10% decline in Bitcoin could translate into an 18% drop for XRP. Daodu cautions that if Bitcoin were to fall below $60,000 again, XRP would likely follow, regardless of the token’s individual fundamentals or technical structure. Geopolitical factors are also contributing to market fragility. Rising tensions in the Middle East have already sparked risk-off sentiment across the crypto market in early March. Should the situation worsen, Daodu said investors could reduce exposure to more speculative assets first, placing additional pressure on altcoins such as XRP. BTC As The Key To Break $1.50? On the upside, a sustained breakout above $1.50 would likely require more than just stability in Bitcoin. Historically, altcoins gain momentum when Bitcoin advances decisively, drawing fresh capital into the broader market. Daodu posits that XRP is no exception; a strong upward move in BTC could provide the tailwind needed for the altcoin to attempt surpass higher resistance levels. Related Reading: Crypto Treasury Inflows Slide To October 2024 Levels—What Happened? Between $1.58 and $1.60 lies a substantial supply zone. Approximately 2 billion XRP were purchased at those levels, leaving many holders underwater for months. As the price approaches that range, investors seeking to exit at breakeven could generate heavy selling pressure, the analyst reported. Clearing $1.50 would signal renewed strength, but absorbing supply closer to $1.60 may prove to be the more difficult challenge. At the time of writing, XRP was trading at $1.41, marking a 3% loss over the previous 24 hours. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
For most of Solana’s short history, meme coin trading defined a large chunk of its activity. That appears to be changing. According to a research note from Grayscale Investments, February’s record volume – $650 billion in stablecoin transactions – was driven by a move toward SOL–stablecoin trading pairs and real payment activity — not speculative bets on short-lived tokens. Related Reading: US Should Act On Bitcoin, Not Just Praise It, Ex-Advisor To Trump Says The network processed more transactions tied to practical money movement than at any point in its existence. The massive figure covers stablecoin transactions recorded on Solana during February 2026. It marks the highest monthly total ever logged on any blockchain — and it arrived in just 28 days. Grayscale’s data shows the number more than doubled the previous peak, which was set only four months earlier in October 2025. Low Fees Drive Small Payment Growth Standard Chartered had previously flagged Solana’s fee structure as a key reason the network was drawing payment-focused users. Low transaction costs make small transfers practical in a way that higher-fee blockchains cannot easily match. Developers have taken notice, building financial tools designed to run entirely on the internet, including micropayment systems that would be unworkable at higher cost per transaction. Stablecoins Power Blockchains Stablecoins — digital tokens pegged to currencies like the US dollar — have become one of the main engines of blockchain activity broadly. On Solana, they are increasingly being used to move money rather than to trade in and out of volatile assets. That distinction matters. Volume built on payments tends to be stickier than volume built on speculation, which can evaporate when market conditions shift. Solana now holds the fourth-largest stablecoin supply of any blockchain. Its ranking in USDC circulation is even more striking: second place, trailing only Ethereum. USDC is widely regarded as the stablecoin most favored by institutional users, which makes Solana’s position in that particular ranking significant. Ethereum Holds Its Ground On High-Value Assets The February data does not suggest Solana has overtaken Ethereum overall. According to figures from rwa.xyz, Ethereum carried $15.57 billion in tokenized real-world assets over the past 30 days. Solana’s comparable figure was $2 billion. Tokenized assets — which can include bonds, real estate, and other financial instruments brought onto a blockchain — represent the higher-value end of on-chain finance, and Ethereum remains the dominant platform for that segment. Related Reading: Iran’s Crypto Market Shaken As Outflows Skyrocket 700% What Solana appears to be winning is the retail and payments layer: fast, cheap, high-frequency transfers that add up quickly in volume even if individual transactions are small. Whether that translates into broader institutional adoption remains an open question, but February’s numbers give the network a data point it did not have before. Featured image from SOPA/Getty Images, chart from TradingView
A retired US Army combat medic has predicted that XRP will overtake Bitcoin as the world’s most valuable cryptocurrency — a claim that would require XRP’s price to climb from $1.41 to nearly $24. Related Reading: Iran’s Crypto Market Shaken As Outflows Skyrocket 700% A Long Road To The Top Patrick L. Riley, who now operates as a market commentator on social media, posted the forecast on X without offering supporting data or a specific timeline. It was not his first time making the claim. Last month, Riley said XRP would become the top-ranked crypto within six years, regardless of whether Bitcoin breaks the $150,000 price level this year. He added that if Bitcoin fails to reach that threshold and reclaim its 12-year trend line, it could collapse to as low as $1,000. Based on current market data, XRP sits fourth by total market value at close to $87 billion. Bitcoin leads at $1.45 trillion. Ethereum ranks second at $254 billion. BNB holds third place at $89.3 billion, just ahead of XRP. I’m going to make two very not bold predictions. 1: This will not be a 4-5 week long war. 2: XRP will pass Bitcoin. — Patrick L Riley (@Acquired_Savant) March 4, 2026 Before XRP could even challenge Bitcoin, it would first need to pass BNB — a gap of roughly 3.5% — and then Ethereum, which would require a price increase of about 190%, pushing XRP past $4.15. Surpassing Bitcoin would demand a further surge to $23.70. XRP last overtook Ethereum in December 2019. Since then, the token has bounced between third and fourth place, often trading blows with BNB for position. Other Voices, Similar Claims Riley is not alone in making this kind of forecast. In August 2025, a finance commentator known as Coach JV said XRP would claim the top spot by 2030, with Bitcoin falling to second. In March 2025, Jacob King, CEO of SwanDesk, made a similar argument after the US government confirmed it had added XRP to its national crypto stockpile. King said the US had effectively sidelined Bitcoin by choosing XRP for its strategic reserve, and that XRP’s market cap would surpass Bitcoin’s with certainty. No timeline was given. Riley Also Weighs In On The Israel-Iran War Beyond crypto, Riley’s post touched on the military conflict between Israel and Iran that broke out on February 28. The US and Israel launched coordinated strikes against Iranian leadership, nuclear infrastructure, and proxy forces. Related Reading: US Should Act On Bitcoin, Not Just Praise It, Ex-Advisor To Trump Says Reports indicate Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed on the first day of the campaign, along with other senior officials. Iran responded with more than 200 missiles and drones targeting Israeli territory and US military positions in the Gulf region. At the outset, US President Donald Trump said the operation might run for about four to five weeks, with the possibility it could stretch longer. Riley later rejected that estimate in a post, though he did not explain what led him to think the conflict would wrap up sooner. Featured image from Vecteezy, chart from TradingView
Google’s Threat Intelligence Group (GTIG) is warning that a “new and powerful” iOS exploit kit, dubbed Coruna by its developers has been deployed on fake finance and crypto websites designed to lure iPhone users into visiting pages that can silently deliver exploits. For crypto holders, the risk is blunt: GTIG’s analysis shows the campaigns ultimately focused on harvesting seed phrases and wallet data from popular mobile apps. Coruna targets Apple devices running iOS 13.0 through iOS 17.2.1, bundling five full exploit chains and 23 exploits. GTIG says it recovered the kit after tracking its evolution across 2025, from early use by a customer of a commercial surveillance company, to “watering hole” attacks on compromised Ukrainian websites, and finally to broad-scale distribution via Chinese-language scam sites tied to a financially motivated actor it tracks as UNC6691. A Crypto Lure Designed For iPhones In the scam-wave phase, GTIG says it observed the JavaScript framework behind Coruna deployed across a “very large set” of fake Chinese websites largely themed around finance. One example cited by GTIG is a fake WEEX-branded crypto exchange page that tried to push visitors onto an iOS device—after which a hidden iFrame would be injected to deliver the exploit kit “regardless of their geolocation.” Related Reading: CFTC Chair Says Crypto Perps Approval Is Close — Why This Is Huge For Hyperliquid? The delivery mechanics matter because they blur the line between traditional phishing and outright device compromise: in GTIG’s telling, simply arriving on the booby-trapped page from a vulnerable iPhone was enough to begin the chain. The framework fingerprints the device to identify model and iOS version, then loads the appropriate WebKit remote code execution exploit and a pointer authentication (PAC) bypass. GTIG tied one WebKit RCE it recovered to CVE-2024-23222, noting it was addressed by Apple in iOS 17.3 on Jan. 22, 2024. At the end of the chain, GTIG says Coruna drops a stager it calls PlasmaLoader (tracked as PLASMAGRID) and describes it as focused less on classic surveillance features and more on stealing financial information. According to GTIG, the payload can decode QR codes from images stored on the device and scan text blobs for BIP39 word sequences, along with keywords such as “backup phrase” and “bank account”, including in Apple Memos, which it can then exfiltrate. Related Reading: Crypto’s Quietest Month In Nearly A Year — But Hackers Haven’t Gone Away The payload is also modular. GTIG says it can pull down and run additional modules remotely, and that many of the identified modules are designed to hook functions and exfiltrate sensitive information from common crypto wallet apps—among them MetaMask, Trust Wallet, Uniswap’s wallet, Phantom, Exodus, and TON ecosystem wallets such as Tonkeeper. The broader arc was also flagged by mobile security firm iVerify, which published its own findings around the same time as GTIG’s report. “And that’s exactly what happened again here, but on mobile devices. Phone OEMs do as good a job as anyone can do…” What Crypto Users Can Do Now Google says Coruna “is not effective against the latest version of iOS,” and urges users to update. If updating isn’t possible, GTIG recommends enabling Apple’s Lockdown Mode. GTIG also says it added the identified websites and domains to Google Safe Browsing to help reduce further exposure. For crypto-native users, the immediate takeaway is practical: mobile wallets sit at the intersection of high-value assets and high-frequency web traffic, which makes “visit-to-compromise” campaigns uniquely dangerous. GTIG’s reporting suggests the scam funnel wasn’t just about getting victims to connect wallets, it was about getting them onto the right device, on the right iOS version, so exploitation could do the rest. At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $2.45 trillion. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Real estate mogul Grant Cardone thinks he has an answer to what ails the crypto treasury industry — pair Bitcoin with rental income. Related Reading: US Should Act On Bitcoin, Not Just Praise It, Ex-Advisor To Trump Says His fund buys multifamily housing, collects rent, and channels the proceeds into additional Bitcoin purchases, giving investors exposure to property appreciation alongside the asset’s price swings. It is a model built for a market that no longer rewards passive accumulation. Companies Search For Ways To Put Bitcoin To Work That shift in thinking comes as the broader crypto treasury sector posts its weakest numbers in well over a year. Monthly inflows into digital asset treasury companies have fallen to roughly $555 million, according to data from DefiLlama — the lowest reading since October 2024. DAT inflows in February slowed to $555M, the lowest level since October 2024 pic.twitter.com/tJJqju0kXd — DefiLlama.com (@DefiLlama) March 2, 2026 At that point, just weeks before the US presidential election, inflows had cratered to around $32 million as investors waited out the uncertainty. What followed was a historic surge. After US President Donald Trump’s election victory and a sharp turn toward crypto-friendly regulation, monthly inflows rocketed past $12 billion. The sector looked unstoppable. It wasn’t. Inflows pulled back through most of 2025, stayed well below $10 billion per month, then dropped sharply again heading into 2026. A prolonged bear market has erased much of those post-election gains. Reports indicate crypto prices have retraced to levels last seen before the 2024 election pump, dragging treasury company valuations down with them and drying up fresh capital. The Crypto Warehouse Model Loses Its Appeal Patrick Ngan, chief investment officer at Zeta Network Group, said the old playbook is no longer enough. Companies that simply buy and hold Bitcoin — warehousing the asset with no active strategy — are at risk of being left behind. Those with real operating businesses generating cash flow will have an edge, he said. “Corporate Bitcoin treasuries now need to show they can actually use the asset, not just warehouse it,” Ngan said. The options for doing so are expanding. Treasury companies can stake crypto assets to earn rewards on proof-of-stake networks, run mining operations on proof-of-work chains, or put capital to work through decentralized lending platforms. Each approach turns a static balance sheet into something that generates returns independent of price movement. Related Reading: Iran’s Crypto Market Shaken As Outflows Skyrocket 700% A New Blueprint Takes Shape Cardone’s hybrid model pushes that idea further. By anchoring a fund in physical real estate — an asset with built-in rental demand — he sidesteps the problem of relying entirely on Bitcoin appreciation. Tax advantages tied to real estate ownership sweeten the returns further. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
Dogecoin, despite being the largest meme coin, has been unable to replicate its previous explosive trends that had led to new all-time highs. Even now, the cryptocurrency continues to struggle below $0.1, spurred on by the bearish sentiment that has dominated the digital asset market in recent times. However, it seems that there might be a light at the end of the tunnel for the Dogecoin price, with the emergence of a bullish indicator that could signal the next recovery trend. What The Morning Doji Star Means For Dogecoin Prominent crypto and Dogecoin analyst Trader Tardigrade recently highlighted an interesting formation on the Dogecoin price chart. According to the crypto analyst, there has been the appearance of a Morning Doji Star on the meme coin’s monthly chart. Related Reading: Why XRP Is Being Hailed As The Top Trade Over Bitcoin And Ethereum The interesting thing about a Morning Doji Star is the fact that it is often a precursor to a bullish move. The last time that this same Morning Doji Star appeared on the Dogecoin monthly price chart was back in 2023. Following the appearance of this bullish formation, the Dogecoin price went on to rise by more than 400% over the next year. While the resulting rally from the 2023 Morning Doji Star formation did not lead to a new all-time high for Dogecoin, it signaled the potency of the move. In the end, the Dogecoin price had risen to as high as $0.5 before the momentum eventually fizzled out. This time around, though, the analyst is expecting the resulting rally to be even more explosive than what was seen back in 2024. Instead of just stopping at maybe a 400% move, the analyst expects that the Dogecoin price could rise over 700%. Related Reading: Seasoned Trader Says Final Bitcoin Flush Is Coming, Here’s The Target If this happens, then it would put the meme coin on a path toward $0.7, which could mean a retest of its current all-time highs. However, before the rally can begin, the price needs to bottom first, and if the historical performance is to be followed, then it could mean that the DOGE price could fall further toward $0.08 before finding a bottom. Nevertheless, the expectation remains that Dogecoin could be on its way to another historical rally. Meanwhile, all eyes remain on Bitcoin as the OG cryptocurrency has dictated the trajectory of other digital assets since its inception. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
The XRP price returned to a technical level that, historically, has defined some of its most explosive rallies. After enduring a sharp 62% correction that culminated in a drop toward $1.10 on February 6, the token is once again testing its long-term ascending support trendline. Amid this, the broader crypto market has shown signs of recovery this week, offering some relief. On Wednesday, the XRP price rebounded roughly 6%, while Bitcoin (BTC) climbed back above the critical $70,000 level, restoring a measure of optimism across risk assets despite ongoing global tensions. Historic XRP Price Support In a Wednesday report, market analyst Sam Daodu pointed out that the XRP price is sitting on the same rising trendline that has historically preceded dramatic upside moves — including a 630% rally in 2024 and an extraordinary surge of more than 60,000% in 2017. Related Reading: CFTC Chair Says Crypto Perps Approval Is Close — Why This Is Huge For Hyperliquid? What makes this retest different, Daodu noted, is that it is happening for the first time with a fully established spot XRP Exchange-traded fund (ETF) infrastructure behind it. Since their launch in November 2025, US spot XRP exchange-traded funds have attracted $1.24 billion in cumulative inflows over four consecutive positive months. Approximately 797 million XRP are now held in ETF custody. At the same time, institutional wallets accumulated an additional 170 million XRP during the most recent price dip. Ripple also re-locked 700 million XRP into escrow on March 1, maintaining its standard release cycle and limiting new supply from entering the market. March seasonality adds another layer to the setup. Over the past 12 years, XRP has delivered an average return of 18% in March, making it statistically the strongest month of the first quarter. $4 Target Emerges From a technical standpoint, the $1.27 level represents the first area of support to monitor. It aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and has served as a bear market floor throughout the correction. Below that, the $1.10–$1.11 zone marks the precise location of the long-term ascending trendline that held in February. A decisive break beneath $1.10 would represent the first failure of this channel since 2015 and could expose the XRP price to a deeper pullback toward $0.85–$1.00. Related Reading: MARA Revises Bitcoin Treasury Strategy, Opens Door To Selling $3.5 Billion In BTC On the upside, $1.47 stands as the nearest Fibonacci resistance, followed closely by the $1.50 neckline of the double bottom. A sustained close above $1.50 would confirm the pattern and project a move toward $1.68–$1.70. Beyond that range, on-chain data shows roughly 1.85 billion XRP accumulated between $1.76 and $1.80, a zone where holders may look to exit at breakeven, potentially creating substantial resistance. The most significant supply cluster lies between $2.40 and $2.60; a weekly close above that band would invalidate the broader descending structure and signal a more decisive trend reversal. Combining historical March strength, capitulation signals, and structural supply constraints, Daodu suggests the XRP price could potentially reach a range between $2.50 and $4.00 by late 2026. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
The US government is sitting on roughly 378,372 Bitcoin worth more than $24 billion, according to data from Arkham Research. Yet more than a year after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, no new Bitcoin has been purchased. Related Reading: Iran’s Crypto Market Shaken As Outflows Skyrocket 700% The government has not gone beyond the digital assets it already held from criminal seizures. David Bailey, a former crypto advisor to the Trump administration, says that gap tells the whole story. Liking Is Not Enough: Bailey “Liking Bitcoin is not enough,” Bailey said last week at the Bitcoin Investor Week Conference in New York City. He was direct about what he sees as the difference between political goodwill and real action. His view: Trump’s support for Bitcoin has been real, but support alone does not move markets or policy. Spending Political Capital Is The Hard Part Bailey said the administration made an important first step. But first steps, he argued, do not automatically lead to second ones. Without a willingness to push through resistance — from budget hawks, from skeptical lawmakers, from a political system that does not easily bend to new financial ideas — the reserve order remains mostly symbolic. Reports say the White House’s own AI and crypto coordinator, David Sacks, acknowledged the challenge early. Just two months after the executive order was signed, Sacks said adding to the government’s Bitcoin holdings would require a “budget-neutral” approach — meaning no new taxes and no new debt. That constraint has proven difficult to work around. No framework for how to meet it has been made public. Bailey did not spare the hard language. “Unless you’re willing to bear the political capital necessary to mobilize the different gears necessary to move the ball forward,” he said, the outcome is the same whether a politician likes Bitcoin or not. He called out the difference between voicing an opinion and doing the work to back it up. Bailey Says Bitcoin Wins Either Way Despite the criticism, Bailey stopped well short of pessimism. He told the conference audience that Bitcoin does not need government action to survive or grow. The question, as he framed it, is only one of timing. Related Reading: Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Buy $14 Billion In BTC As Retail Headed For The Exit “Whether it’s four years from now, or 10 years from now, or 20 years from now,” he said, “we will get to the point where we actually have a government that is conducive to the rules we need for Bitcoin to be successful.” Bailey now runs KindlyMD, a Bitcoin treasury company, and he made clear his focus is on expanding ownership rather than waiting on Washington. More Bitcoin owners means more voters who have a personal stake in pro-Bitcoin policy — and that, he argued, is what makes adoption inevitable over time. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView
Arthur Hayes was wrong before. In December, the BitMEX co-founder predicted Bitcoin would hit $200,000 by March 2026. It didn’t. Bitcoin is trading near $71,000. Hayes is now calling for $500,000 to $750,000 by the end of the year, and his reasoning runs straight through the Middle East. Related Reading: Iran’s Crypto Market Shaken As Outflows Skyrocket 700% War, Spending, And The Fed Hayes argues that a prolonged US military conflict involving Iran would put severe pressure on federal finances. As government spending climbs, he believes policymakers would face little choice but to cut interest rates and pump more money into the financial system. That combination — loose monetary policy and expanding liquidity — is what he thinks sends Bitcoin sharply higher. The argument is grounded in history, at least partially. During the 1990 Gulf War, Federal Open Market Committee members openly cited Middle East instability as a factor in their deliberations. Crypto billionaire Arthur Hayes is predicting a $500k – $750k Bitcoin by end of 2026??? Trump admin + Iran conflict + Fed easing = ???????? He explains: pic.twitter.com/AU23sd216a — Altcoin Daily (@AltcoinDaily) March 2, 2026 By late 1990, the Fed had cut rates as economic confidence dropped. After the September 11 attacks in 2001, then-Fed Chair Alan Greenspan pushed for an emergency 50-basis-point cut, which was implemented almost immediately. Markets steadied shortly after. Hayes draws a direct line from those episodes to what he sees unfolding now. Large military operations cost hundreds of billions. Fiscal pressure builds. The Fed eventually eases. Risk assets, including Bitcoin, rise. A Pattern Hayes Has Bet On Before He made this case publicly in a Substack post, where he wrote that investors could find a meaningful entry point once the Fed begins cutting rates or expanding the money supply. He named Bitcoin and a handful of what he called high-quality altcoins as the assets best positioned to benefit once that shift begins. The key moment, in his view, is not the conflict itself but what comes after. Rate cuts and fresh liquidity, he argues, are what actually move prices. Related Reading: Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Buy $14 Billion In BTC As Retail Headed For The Exit The Gap Between The Forecast And The Chart Bitcoin’s current price tells a different story from Hayes’ projections. The coin sits roughly half its October peak of $126,000. While gold and oil climbed after US and Israeli strikes killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Bitcoin did not follow. It sold off initially before recovering to current levels. That disconnect — commodities rallying while Bitcoin lags — has not shaken Hayes’ outlook. His $500,000 to $750,000 call remains intact, pinned to the belief that monetary policy, not headlines, is what ultimately drives the price. Whether the Fed moves in that direction depends on how long and how costly the conflict becomes. Featured image from US Air Force, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed back above the $73,000 level for the first time since early February, marking a notable recovery for the cryptocurrency. As momentum builds, some analysts believe the move could extend further if current trends remain intact. Among them is market analyst Ali Martinez, who shared his outlook in a recent post on X. According to Martinez, Bitcoin may be positioning itself for what he describes as a potential relief rally. ETF Accumulation And Thin On-Chain Resistance From an on-chain standpoint, Martinez highlighted the role of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which continue to absorb supply at a steady pace. He noted that ETFs purchased approximately $776 million worth of BTC last week alone. The pace has not slowed this week. Since the week began on March 2, ETF inflows have already reached around $789 million — and the week is still ongoing. That scale of accumulation points to sustained institutional demand, which can provide meaningful support during breakout attempts. Related Reading: MARA Revises Bitcoin Treasury Strategy, Opens Door To Selling $3.5 Billion In BTC Beyond capital flows, Martinez also pointed to blockchain data that suggests limited resistance immediately above current price levels. Using the URPD (UTXO Realized Price Distribution), he observed that a major resistance cluster previously sat near $70,685. With Bitcoin now above the key price zone of $72,000, the supply concentration between this area and $81,000 appears comparatively thin. According to CoinGecko data, the BTC price has surged 7% to $73,200 at the time of writing. In practical terms, this means there are fewer historically established sell levels within that range. If buying pressure continues to build, Martinez believes that the Bitcoin price could move more freely through this “low supply” area. Bitcoin Rally Could Extend Toward $84,000 The next significant concentrations of supply, according to Martinez, are positioned around $83,307 and $84,569. Those levels may serve as stronger resistance should Bitcoin’s rally extend into that territory. Related Reading: CFTC Chair Says Crypto Perps Approval Is Close — Why This Is Huge For Hyperliquid? Martinez concluded that a confirmed breakout above current levels, supported by persistent ETF inflows, lighter on-chain resistance, and strengthening technical structure, could create the conditions for a short-term expansion higher. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com