Bitcoin price is struggling to recover above $112,000. BTC is now consolidating and might decline if there is a move below the $110,800 level. Bitcoin started a fresh decline from the $113,200 zone. The price is trading below $111,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $111,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might start another decline if it stays below the $112,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Remains At Risk Bitcoin price started a fresh recovery wave from the $110,100 zone. BTC managed to climb above the $110,800 and $111,500 resistance levels. The bulls were able to push the price above $112,500 and $113,000. However, the bears remained active near the $113,200 zone and prevented more gains. There was a fresh bearish reaction, and the price traded below $112,000. A low was formed at $110,820 and the price is now consolidating losses. Bitcoin is now trading below $111,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Besides, there is a bullish trend line forming with support at $111,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $111,700 level. The first key resistance is near the $112,000 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $113,200 swing high to the $110,820 low. The next resistance could be $112,300 or the 61.8% Fib level of the recent decline from the $113,200 swing high to the $110,820 low. A close above the $112,300 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $113,200 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $114,200 level. The main target could be $115,000. More Losses In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $112,300 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Immediate support is near the $111,000 level and the trend line. The first major support is near the $110,800 level. The next support is now near the $110,200 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $108,800 support in the near term. The main support sits at $107,500, below which BTC might decline sharply. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $111,000, followed by $110,200. Major Resistance Levels – $112,000 and $112,300.
Germany’s much-publicized Bitcoin seizure campaign has come under fresh scrutiny after blockchain analysts revealed that nearly $5 billion worth of BTC has remained untouched. The finding raises intrigue within the crypto community, as questions swirl over whether the funds are lost, frozen, or simply being held in reserve. Why The Coins Remain Untouched In an X post, Elite KOL Crypto Patel, who is also associated with CoinMarketCap and Binance, has highlighted that Germany’s Bitcoin crackdown has encountered a major roadblock. Blockchain analytics firm Arkham has revealed a massive trove of untouched BTC connected to the now-defunct Movie2K piracy site, suggesting that German authorities’ seizure efforts may have hit a wall. Related Reading: El Salvador’s Bitcoin Journey Hits 4-Year Mark, Results Still Divisive According to the report, approximately 45,000 BTC, valued at around $5 billion, has been sitting dormant across over 100 wallets since 2019. These coins are believed to still be under the control of the site’s original operators. Earlier in 2024, German authorities successfully seized nearly 50,000 BTC, which were later liquidated for about $2.9 billion. However, despite that high-profile move, this new revelation highlights that a significant portion of the Movie2K fortune is still out of reach. Bitcoin continues to gain notable mainstream adoption among prominent figures, institutions, and countries. Crypto expert Hashley Giles explained that Bitcoin is an ideal balance sheet asset for a wide range of profitable businesses of all sizes and across all industries. In the United Kingdom, opening an e-money account is a straightforward way for companies to gain BTC exposure without straining existing banking relationships. Accounting is also simple when businesses focus on accumulating rather than trading, removing the complexity of constant mark-to-market volatility. Beyond ease of integration, Bitcoin offers unmatched liquidity. Companies can instantly convert BTC into pounds within seconds whenever business performance requires it, and even on weekends when banks are closed. Compared to the ultra-low interest rates on business bank deposit savings in the UK, those with slightly better yields often require 90-day or longer notice periods before funds can be accessed. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has no notice period, making it both flexible and efficient. Maintaining Bitcoin’s Security While Unlocking Liquidity Bitcoin has long been the most trusted digital asset. However, to fulfill its potential and truly power real economies, it requires a stable unit of account. BSquaredNetwork emphasized that the missing piece is U2, a BTC-backed, USD-pegged stablecoin designed to preserve Bitcoin’s security while unlocking global liquidity. Related Reading: Bitcoin Treasury Purchases Down Amid Record Holdings – What Does This Mean? BSquaredNetwork’s vision extends beyond simple payments. With U2 as a stable unit of account, BTC can transform into the settlement engine for payment, decentralized finance (DeFi), and even AI-to-AI microtransactions. This innovation bridges the gap between BTC’s digital gold properties and its potential as the foundation of the intelligent economy. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin’s recent price action has positioned the cryptocurrency at a pivotal crossroads. While it has successfully broken above a key long-term trendline, it remains locked in a consolidation pattern below its all-time high (ATH). This dual dynamic creates a compelling and uncertain environment, leaving investors to ponder the most critical question in the market: Is the next explosive rally finally loading? Bitcoin Breaks Long-Term Trendline: A Familiar Cycle Signal CryptoELITES, a seasoned crypto analyst, recently revealed a highly bullish perspective on Bitcoin’s recent price action. According to the analysis, Bitcoin has successfully broken above a key long-term trendline on its chart, a move that signals a significant shift in the market’s trajectory. Related Reading: Bitcoin Finds Crucial Support On Bull Market Band — Will Momentum Hold Following this breakout, Bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase. This pattern is particularly noteworthy because it mirrors the behavior seen in previous market cycles. Such post-breakout consolidation has historically served as a precursor to much larger price movements. Based on this historical precedent and the current chart pattern, the analyst is confident that a major move is on the horizon. BTC Faces Strong Rejection At Key Resistance Zone Despite the optimistic signals emerging from Bitcoin’s recent trendline breakout, not all analysts are convinced the market is ready for a full-fledged rally. In a recent update, Alpha Crypto Signal pointed out that BTC is still facing strong rejection at a key horizontal resistance zone on the daily chart. This resistance continues to weigh heavily on price action, keeping the broader structure tilted toward a bearish stance. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Recovery Hopes Rise – Can Bulls Push It Past Resistance? The analyst emphasized that unless Bitcoin achieves a convincing breakout above its ATH, any upward movement from current levels risks being a temporary recovery. In the analyst’s view, such moves could easily turn into a “dead cat bounce,” a short-lived rally that fails to establish sustainable bullish momentum. Adding to this caution, Alpha Crypto Signal also expressed skepticism about the ongoing altcoin rally, describing it as a potential liquidity trap. According to the expert, market makers could be using this surge to lure retail traders into premature long positions before triggering the next major downward leg. This strategy has been a recurring pattern in past cycles and should not be underestimated by market participants. Still, the crypto analyst acknowledged that short-term opportunities do exist. The expert emphasized that longing bounces remain a viable strategy, provided traders employ strict stop-losses and maintain disciplined risk management. Presently, the market is in a “trap territory,” which demands precision and caution, trade the moves, but avoid getting caught in setups designed to shake out the unwary. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Crypto analyst Ash Crypto has revealed when the Bitcoin price is likely to reach $150,000, while Ethereum rallies to $8,000 and the altcoin season begins in full force. This comes as the crypto market looks to rebound, with BTC attempting a successful break above $112,000. On Bitcoin Price and Ethereum Rally And Altcoin Season Timeline In an X post, Ash Crypto declared that the Bitcoin price will rally to $150,000, Ethereum will rally to $8,000, and the altcoin season will happen in the fourth quarter of this year. During that period, he expects altcoins to pump between 10x and 50x. In line with this, he urged market participants to relax and be patient. Related Reading: Fair Value Gap Suggests Bitcoin Price Is Going Higher, But Watch Out For This Crash In another X post, the analyst stated that the Bitcoin price will likely bottom this month. Ash Crypto remarked that he is expecting BTC to form a low between $94,000 and $100,000, making everyone believe that $124,000 was the top. When that happens, he predicts that the flagship crypto will then record a massive breakout in October and reach between $150,000 and $180,000 by December. Crypto analyst Stockmoney also indicated that market participants can expect significant moves from the Bitcoin price and Ethereum in Q4 of this year, while an altcoin season could be on the horizon. In an X post, the analyst stated that BTC is following the same pattern throughout the bull market. Based on this, he remarked that impulsive moves happen in the fourth quarter, and this is where most pumps historically occur. Stockmoney noted that these rallies are usually preceded by a longer consolidation period in the form of a falling wedge or bullish megaphone. His accompanying chart showed that the Bitcoin price could reach as high as $180,000 by year-end. Altcoin Season May Already Be Starting Market commentator Milk Road suggested that altcoin season may already be starting, even as the Bitcoin price and Ethereum find their footing. In an X post, Milk Road noted that ETH has outperformed BTC over the last two quarters. ETH is up around 110% in the second and third quarters, while BTC is up 34% during this period. Related Reading: Interest In Altcoin Season Crashes 88% In August As Ethereum Price Tanks This represents an over 300% return for Ethereum over the Bitcoin price. In line with this, Milk Road declared that historically, this kind of flipping often marks the start of altcoin season. Blockchain Center data shows that the market is currently closer to altcoin season than Bitcoin season. More altcoins have continued to outperform BTC over the last 90 days. However, 75% of the top 50 coins by market cap still need to outperform BTC for it to be considered officially altcoin season. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $112,000, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin is currently trading in a narrow range, caught between the $113K resistance and the $110K support level. Bulls are struggling to regain momentum after recent pullbacks, while mounting selling pressure continues to weigh on short-term sentiment. The tight consolidation reflects investor indecision, with both sides waiting for a decisive breakout that could shape the market’s next major move. Related Reading: Ethereum Dominates Trading Volume Despite Market Cool-Off – Details Despite the near-term weakness, the long-term view remains more constructive. According to top analyst Darkfost, the 30-day average Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) remains elevated but has started to cool off. Notably, its value has already dropped by half from its previous peak, signaling a slowdown in old coin movements. This decline suggests that the heaviest phase of long-term holder distribution may be easing, providing the market with some breathing room. If this cooling trend continues, it could reinforce Bitcoin’s long-term bullish outlook, even as short-term volatility persists. The combination of resilient support levels and declining long-term holder selling pressure may set the stage for a stronger recovery once external catalysts, such as Federal Reserve policy shifts, provide clarity. Strong LTH Movement Meets Resilient Demand Darkfost shared that the market has just experienced the strongest movement of old Bitcoin (LTHs) in this cycle so far. Long-term holders, who typically keep their coins dormant for extended periods, have been moving significant amounts of BTC back into circulation. This is a noteworthy development because it represents the most intense wave of long-term holder activity since the current bull cycle began. What makes this event particularly striking is that despite the heavy selling pressure from these seasoned holders, Bitcoin’s price has only corrected between 10% and 13% from its recent highs. By historical standards, this is a relatively modest drawdown, suggesting that the market remains resilient. Darkfost points out that the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric is crucial here. CDD tracks how long BTC has been held before being moved. When older coins are suddenly spent, it typically reflects distribution by experienced holders—often interpreted as profit-taking or a shift in positioning. A spike in CDD, therefore, signals significant selling pressure. However, the key takeaway is that demand has so far absorbed this spike remarkably well. Institutional inflows, treasury accumulation, and strong market liquidity appear to be offsetting the selling activity. While this doesn’t completely remove downside risk—especially if further long-term holders decide to exit—the market’s ability to withstand such a strong wave of distribution without a deeper crash is encouraging. The broader implication is that Bitcoin’s structure remains strong, even as it faces temporary challenges. If demand continues to hold firm, this phase of redistribution may ultimately serve as a healthy reset, setting the stage for the next leg higher. Still, investors should remain cautious: the market is not out of the woods just yet. Related Reading: Bitcoin LTH Aging Velocity Turns Negative: Distribution Phase Unfolds Price Testing Support After Pullback Bitcoin is currently trading around $112,870, staging a modest recovery after a pullback from its all-time high near $124,500. The chart shows that BTC has been in a consolidation phase following months of strong gains, with price action now hovering above the 100-day moving average (green line) and testing the mid-term trend structure. The 50-day moving average (blue line) is slightly above the current price, acting as short-term resistance. A decisive break above this level could open the door for another attempt at the $120K–$123K zone, which remains the critical resistance for bulls to reclaim in order to re-enter price discovery. Related Reading: Bitcoin Cycle Structure Questioned As VDD Mirrors Historic Tops On the downside, support is forming around the $110K–$108K range, close to the rising 100-day moving average, which has held well during previous corrections. A breakdown below this level would risk a deeper retracement toward the 200-day moving average (red line) near $82K, though such a move would require strong selling pressure. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin is currently at a crossroads, caught between bullish hopes and bearish pressure. Bulls are struggling to reclaim the $115K level, while bears have been unable to keep BTC below $110K, leaving the market in a tense state of uncertainty. This indecision comes as volatility increases ahead of the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting, where investors expect a possible announcement on interest rate cuts. Such a decision could significantly impact risk assets, including Bitcoin, by shaping liquidity conditions in global markets. Related Reading: Ethereum Dominates Trading Volume Despite Market Cool-Off – Details Top analyst Axel Adler highlights that as of today, it has been 504 days since the last halving, a milestone that places the market in a mature phase of the bull regime. By comparing the current cycle with the previous two, Adler suggests that Bitcoin is showing characteristics consistent with late-cycle behavior. While this phase often brings heightened volatility and profit-taking, it also underscores the broader strength of the cycle, supported by institutional demand and long-term adoption trends. Bitcoin Redistribution Patterns Signal A Sustainable Cycle Adler explains that in this cycle, Bitcoin has displayed a unique redistribution pattern compared to past bull runs. In March, when BTC traded near $70,000, the market witnessed an extreme spike in Value Days Destroyed (VDD), a signal of significant long-term holder (LTH) activity. This was followed by two additional, but more moderate, distribution waves near $98,000 and $117,000. Importantly, these later waves did not surpass the March extremum, suggesting that selling pressure from LTHs has been segmented and less overwhelming than in prior cycles. This behavior points toward more sustainable redistribution, primarily due to institutional demand. Rather than one explosive top driven by panic or retail frenzy, supply is exiting in batches after each new all-time high. Institutional buyers, ETFs, and corporate treasuries are absorbing this selling, which spreads peaks across a longer period and creates stretched-out cycle dynamics. Looking ahead, final conclusions about the cycle’s ultimate peak hinge on the emergence of the Peak Flag, a well-established late-cycle signal. The Peak Flag is triggered when the spot price trades at roughly 11 times higher than the LTH realized price. Historically, this ratio indicates that the market price has far outpaced the steadily climbing base cost of long-term holders. Based on current trajectories, the nearest window for such a setup is October–November 2025. However, this depends on conditions aligning: a surge in major LTH spending, a spike in short-term volatility, and then a gradual fading of that volatility. Related Reading: Bitcoin LTH Aging Velocity Turns Negative: Distribution Phase Unfolds Price Testing Short-Term Resistance Bitcoin is trading at $112,952, staging a rebound after holding above the $110K support zone. The chart shows BTC attempting to build momentum, but clear resistance lies around $114K, in line with the 100-day moving average (green line). A sustained move above this level would be critical to validate further upside. The 50-day moving average (blue line) is trending downward, currently acting as dynamic resistance and compressing price action. Until BTC reclaims it decisively, momentum remains fragile. On the downside, the 200-day moving average (red line) around $101,900 offers a deeper layer of long-term support, far below current levels. Related Reading: Old Bitcoin Supply Unlocks: 7,626 BTC Aged 3–5 Years Moves Onchain Structurally, BTC is forming a short-term higher low compared to early September, hinting at stabilization. However, bulls face the challenge of reclaiming lost ground quickly before bears reassert pressure. The broader resistance zone between $115K and $117K will likely determine whether BTC continues its consolidation or mounts a stronger recovery attempt. Holding above $110K keeps the bullish case intact, but without a breakout over $114K–$115K, Bitcoin risks slipping back into a choppy range. Traders should watch for volume confirmation on any breakout attempt. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
This week is shaping up to be critical for the broader crypto market, marked by a prevailing sense of caution as prices consolidate ahead of their next direction. According to market analysis firm Bull Theory, the forthcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is on the horizon, and its outcome will largely hinge on the economic data released this week. Stability Or Further Pressure For Crypto? The Federal Reserve (Fed) has two primary mandates: to maintain inflation around 2% and to support employment levels. Currently, the landscape appears challenging, with rising unemployment juxtaposed against persistent inflation. Related Reading: Solana Rally in Sight? Traders Eye Breakout That Could Push SOL Toward $250 On September 9, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will revise the previous year’s non-farm payrolls (NFP). This annual revision often reveals downward adjustments, indicating weaker job growth than initially reported. For instance, last August, the revision was significantly lower than expected, with a downward adjustment of 818,000 jobs—the second worst in US history. This prompted the Fed to implement a more aggressive 50 basis point cut instead of the anticipated 25 basis points. If this repeats, it could raise the likelihood of another substantial cut, which would be viewed positively for liquidity and, by extension, the crypto market. The Producer Price Index (PPI) report, scheduled for September 10, will provide insights into inflation at the business level. A PPI reading that meets or falls below expectations is likely to boost market sentiment, while a higher-than-expected figure could dampen it. Last month, the PPI was unexpectedly high, coinciding with Bitcoin’s (BTC) peak near $124,000 before it began to cool. A softer PPI this time could grant the Fed more leeway to implement cuts, alleviating pressure on cryptocurrencies. Three Scenarios For Fed’s Upcoming Rate Cut Decision Following that, on September 11, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key inflation gauge, will be released. If CPI readings come in hotter than anticipated, it complicates the Fed’s decision-making process. For the crypto market, a CPI result at or below expectations would be the most favorable outcome. Also on September 11, initial jobless claims will be reported, indicating how many individuals filed for unemployment benefits last week. A higher-than-expected figure would signal weakness in the job market, thereby increasing pressure on the Fed to act. As all eyes turn to the FOMC meeting, the data collected this week will be instrumental in determining whether the Fed opts for a 25 basis point or a more aggressive 50 basis point cut. Related Reading: Dogecoin Leads Altcoin Rally Amid ETF Speculation: Is $1.50 the Next Big Target? There are three potential scenarios that could unfold. The first, a larger cut of 50 basis points, is likely if the NFP is sharply revised downwards, CPI and PPI data are soft, and jobless claims are high. This scenario, which indicates a rapidly weakening economy, could provide robust liquidity support for the market. However, the Bull Theory estimates this outcome has a 20%-25% probability. The second scenario, a standard cut of 25 basis points, appears more probable, with a 70%-74% chance. This would occur if NFP revisions are moderately weaker, CPI is slightly elevated, and jobless claims remain steady. While this would still be positive for crypto, it may not yield the same liquidity burst as a 50 basis point cut. Lastly, a scenario where the Fed pauses or delays changes is also possible. The firm asserts that if NFP data holds steady, CPI readings are hotter than expected, and jobless claims decrease, the Fed might take a more cautious approach, potentially leading to short-term pressures and further consolidation for Bitcoin and altcoins. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin long-term holders aged between 5 to 7 years old have lost $6.4 billion in Realized Cap over the past year, but selling isn’t behind the fall. 5 To 7 Years Old Bitcoin Holders Have Been Maturing To Even Older Bands In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about how the Realized Cap associated with the 5 to 7 years old Bitcoin investors has changed over the past year. Related Reading: Cardano Pushes Past $0.85: Falling Wedge Breakout Confirmed? The “Realized Cap” here refers to an indicator that basically measures the amount of capital that the investors of the cryptocurrency have put into it. As such, changes in the metric correspond to the exit or entry of capital into the network. In the context of the current topic, the Realized Cap of the whole market isn’t of interest, but rather that of a few specific investor segments. These are the holders with 5 to 7 years old, 7 to 10 years old and 10+ years old tokens. Statistically, the longer an investor holds onto their coins, the less likely they become to sell them in the future, so these groups with their extremely long holding times would correspond to some of the most resolute hands in the sector. What the behavior of these investors is like, therefore, can be something to watch for. Below is a chart showing the trend in the Realized Cap for these Bitcoin groups. As displayed in the above graph, the Realized Cap associated with the youngest of these groups, the addresses holding coins aged between 5 and 7 years old, has seen a steep drop over the past year. The metric started out the window at a level of $14.9 billion, but today, it stands at just $8.5 billion, reflecting a decline of almost 43%. Investor groups classified based on age lose Realized Cap when they break their dormancy and participate in transactions. For example, as soon as a holder part of the 5 to 7 years old segment shifts their coins, the age of said tokens resets back to zero, and they along with their Realized Cap share get kicked out of the group. There’s one more way for the metric to decline for a cohort, however: upward promotion. This happens when an investor HODLs past the upper bound of the group’s age range. From the chart, it’s visible that the combined Realized Cap associated with the 5 to 7 years, 7 to 10 years, and 10+ years segments has actually gone up over the past year, despite the first of them noting a steep drop in its metric. Since capital can’t directly transfer to the latter two groups, it must have gone through the former. Related Reading: Old Bitcoin Supply Keeps Moving Into ETFs: Data Shows Three Waves So far In other words, almost all of the “selling” that the 5 to 7 years group has participated in has actually corresponded to diamond hands holding steady enough to pass on to a higher cohort. As Glassnode has pointed out, though, this doesn’t mean that the cohort hasn’t participated in any real selling at all. “The 5–7y group still spent ~385k $BTC in profit over the year, showing that while most coins matured passively, some holders selectively distributed,” notes the analytics firm. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $112,400, up 3% over the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price is struggling to recover above $112,500. BTC is now consolidating and might decline if there is a move below the $110,800 level. Bitcoin started a recovery wave above the $110,800 zone. The price is trading above $111,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $110,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might start another decline if it stays below the $113,000 zone. Bitcoin Price Faces Key Hurdles Bitcoin price started a fresh recovery wave from the $110,000 zone. BTC managed to climb above the $110,800 and $111,200 resistance levels. The bulls were able to push the price above the 50% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the $113,372 swing high to the $110,039 low. However, the bears remained active near the $112,600 zone and prevented more gains. The 76.4% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the $113,372 swing high to the $110,039 low acted as a resistance. Bitcoin is now trading above $111,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Besides, there is a bullish trend line forming with support at $110,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $111,750 level. The first key resistance is near the $112,000 level. The next resistance could be $112,550. A close above the $112,550 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $113,000 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $114,200 level. The main target could be $115,000. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $112,550 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Immediate support is near the $110,800 level and the trend line. The first major support is near the $110,500 level. The next support is now near the $110,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $108,800 support in the near term. The main support sits at $107,500, below which BTC might decline sharply. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $110,800, followed by $110,000. Major Resistance Levels – $112,550 and $113,000.
Bitcoin price is currently at a critical juncture, sitting right on top of the Bull Market Support Band. Throughout past bull cycles, this band has historically served as a crucial support level, with price retesting it during corrections and bouncing off it to continue its upward trend. Why This Level Matters For Bitcoin Uptrend In an X post, full-time crypto trader and investor, Daan Crypto Trades, has pointed out that Bitcoin is currently sitting directly on top of the Bull Market Support Band. This level has long been regarded as one of the most reliable high-timeframe momentum indicators. Related Reading: Bitcoin Holds Key Support Amid Gravestone Doji – $120,000 Hangs In Balance Daan Crypto Trades noted that while Bitcoin has seen short-term consolidation at or even slightly below this band, it has never experienced a prolonged detachment for more than a week or two during a bull market. The broader market structure remains intact as long as Bitcoin continues to print higher highs and higher lows on the larger timeframe. However, any subsequent dips that occur while this structural integrity is maintained are generally seen as areas of interest and potential buying opportunities for investors. The Role Of Liquidity In Driving Bitcoin’s Next Move Bitcoin is showing the first bearish divergence against the Global M2 Money supply since the cycle lows began, and signaling a potential slowdown in momentum. According to Saint Pump, a market expert, a one-month liquidity pullback is expected in late September, coinciding with the Federal Reserve (Fed) anticipated rate cut amid job weakness. Related Reading: Analyst Says All Bitcoin Price Uptrend Are Duds Unless This Happens This confluence of a bearish technical signal and a macroeconomic liquidity event suggests that BTC’s recent poor price action since July and divergence with global liquidity will continue leading to a period of choppy price action. In addition, there will be volatile trading until global liquidity conditions improve in late October. Adding to the short-term pressure, October also marks the expected end of the four-year cycle, which historically brings additional selling activity. Despite these headwinds, no major cycle top or euphoria signals are evident. Saint Pump noted that the Trump Administration may unleash a monetary bazooka through a Fed takeover to stimulate the economy ahead of the midterms. As a result, this cycle could extend into late 2026, until Inflation fears resurface once the Fed overdoes it due to political pressures. From a technical perspective, the best bid scenario in a sell-off lies between $93,000 and $98,000, aligning with a retest of the weekly 55 Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which has sustained the bull trend since last year. While short-term volatility is expected, the broader uptrend remains structurally sound. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin’s price has spent the past week hovering within a tight band and bouncing between $108,000 and $112,000 without any clear direction yet. There have been multiple rejections at the $112,000 price level and technical analysis shows pressure around the 200-day moving averages on the four-hour chart. Notably, a technical analysis shared by crypto analyst Daan Crypto shows Bitcoin is at risk of a breakdown below $100,000, but bulls still have a chance to stage a recovery rally in the weeks ahead. Analyst Warns About Sweep Of Monthly Lows In his latest post on the social media platform X, Daan Crypto Trades noted that Bitcoin is currently indecisive, and its price action is leaning toward a sweep of the monthly lows. This movement is based on the 4-hour candlestick timeframe chart, which shows the Bitcoin price was recently rejected at the 200MA/EMA last week. Related Reading: Looking For A Good Bitcoin Entry? Crypto Research Firm Reveals The Best Time To Buy BTC The 4-hour candlestick chart below shows Bitcoin has been trading in a defined range since August 25, with equal lows forming a weak base around $107,000 and liquidity sitting just beneath. This makes a stop-hunt sweep a possible next step. Such a move, the analyst explained, would likely open up a bearish case of panic across the market, which might eventually cause fears of Bitcoin collapsing under the $100,000 price level. However, the analyst also identified the $103,000 to $105,000 price zone as the support level where buyers can step in. This area, according to him, would also be a logical entry point for swing long positions if the Bitcoin price indeed breaks down below $107,000. Conditions For A Bullish Recovery According to the analysis, Bitcoin bulls have a chance to prevent any breakdown below $100,000 by holding above $105,000 to $103,000. Despite laying out a bearish base case, Daan also described a roadmap for the bulls. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Warns 90% Bitcoin Price Crash Is Coming, Here’s When The first condition would be strength above $115,000, which would mark a break of August’s range low, which has turned into resistance in the first week of August. A break and close above $115,000 would invalidate any short-term bearish momentum. Alternatively, he pointed to a quick liquidity grab below the monthly lows at $107,000, followed by a reclaim of the $107,000 and $112,000 levels, as the most bullish scenario. According to the analyst, this second setup could pave the way for a sustained one-to-two-month uptrend rally through October and November. For now, the analyst said he is on the sidelines except for short-term scalps. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $111,733, up 0.7% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin is once again at a pivotal level, with selling pressure dominating the market and volatility shaking investor confidence. After weeks of choppy trading, BTC is barely holding above the $110,000 mark, a threshold that many analysts view as critical for maintaining a bullish structure. Momentum has clearly shifted in recent sessions, and the market is now bracing for the possibility of a deeper correction. Related Reading: Old Bitcoin Supply Unlocks: 7,626 BTC Aged 3–5 Years Moves Onchain Adding to the concern, top analyst Axel Adler shared insights from the Bitcoin UTXO Age Metrics, which reveal growing signs of distribution from long-term holders. Historically, when older coins begin to move, it often signals that experienced investors are taking profits and releasing supply back into the market. Such behavior has repeatedly preceded periods of downside pressure, as the influx of long-held BTC creates hurdles for bulls to overcome. While Bitcoin has shown resilience throughout this cycle, the combination of distribution signals and mounting uncertainty makes the coming days crucial. If BTC fails to hold its current support, the door could open to lower levels, testing investor conviction. The spotlight is now on whether demand can match the renewed selling from long-term holders and stabilize the market. Bitcoin LTH Aging Velocity Signal Market Shift According to Adler, the LTH Aging Velocity (30-day) offers valuable insight into the current Bitcoin market structure. This metric measures the change in the long-term holder (LTH) supply share over a 30-day period, effectively showing the momentum of supply aging among experienced holders. When the metric is above 0, more coins are maturing into long-term supply, indicating accumulation. When it is below 0, the LTH share is decreasing, signaling distribution. Zero crossings often mark regime changes, and the last one occurred on July 16th at $118,000. Currently, the metric sits at -1.2%, which means LTH supply is decreasing while the share of young short-term holder (STH) supply is growing. This reflects an active redistribution, with long-term holders selling coins to newer participants as the price rises. Adler highlights that the last LTH accumulation peak occurred when Bitcoin traded between $100,000–$108,000, a range that provided the foundation for the most recent rally. Judging by historical patterns, another 2% of LTH supply could be distributed in the near term—equivalent to roughly 300,000 BTC. This suggests that while Bitcoin still holds strong above the $110,000 level, selling pressure from long-term holders remains an important factor. If demand from ETFs and institutions does not keep pace, the market could face renewed downward pressure before stabilizing. For now, this shift in aging velocity underscores that the balance of power is tilting, with long-term holders gradually passing supply to new players. Related Reading: Bitcoin Cycle Structure Questioned As VDD Mirrors Historic Tops Price Analysis: Consolidation Holds, Resistance Ahead Bitcoin’s 8-hour chart shows the price trading at $111,711, consolidating just above the $111K level after weeks of volatility. The chart highlights a recovery attempt from late August’s dip near $108K, but BTC has yet to reclaim stronger resistance zones. The moving averages show mixed signals: the 50 SMA (blue) remains below the 100 SMA (green) and 200 SMA (red), indicating bearish momentum still dominates the mid-term. Price action is currently hovering between the 50 SMA at $111K and the 100 SMA at $114K, which forms an immediate resistance zone. A decisive break above $114K could open the door to $118K, but failure to do so may result in another retest of $110K or even $108K. Related Reading: Binance Sees Massive Ethereum Whale Outflows: Demand Remains Strong Market structure remains choppy, with lower highs forming since the $124K peak in mid-August. This suggests selling pressure persists as bulls struggle to regain control. On the downside, strong support lies near the $108K region, which has held multiple times. Losing this level would increase the risk of a deeper pullback toward $105K. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
The Bitcoin price chart is now flashing a head and shoulders pattern with quite a clear plan for what could be coming next. Mix in the fact that there is an unfilled Fair Value Gap (FVG) available for the time being, with a high probability of being filled. This makes for a good idea for how the Bitcoin price could play out in the new week. However, there is also the possibility of a crash with resistance mounting that could cause trouble for the cryptocurrency. Filling The Fair Value Gap At $114,000 Crypto analyst Xanrox revealed that the first Bitcoin Fair Value Gap (FVG) opened up right above $114,000 following the last crash. This gap left a hole for liquidity that could attract more buy-ins to trigger another run. This fair value gap is also sitting above the Head and Shoulders pattern that has formed on the chart. Related Reading: Analyst Forecasts XRP To Stage Amazon-Like Rally To $200 With the gap still open and more likely to be filled, it suggests that the Bitcoin price could see a first initial run-up from here. This would take it all the way up to $114,000, and this is where the real problem comes in. This is because there is a lot of resistance building up above the fair value gap that could be triggered once the liquidity is sucked dry. Xanrox further explains that many traders have placed their stop loss orders above $114,000, which also adds to the mounting pressure at this level. Thus, whales will use this opportunity to take out all of the liquidity before they start to push the Bitcoin price back down. Bitcoin Price On The Edge Of A Crash Once the fair value gap is filled at $114,000, then there is the next phase of the trend, which is more bearish. In the post, the crypto analyst predicts that the price will begin another dump. This will be triggered by the lack of liquidity and the completion of the Head and Shoulders pattern. Related Reading: Ethereum Exchange Balance Turns Negative For The First Time – Why This Is Bullish For Price The crash is expected to go deeper than the current local low from August, plummeting below the support at $108,000. The more than 10% crash after filling the fair value gap is expected to push Bitcoin back down as low as $106,000 before finding a bottom. Xanrox expects all of this to play out this month, citing multiple factors for this. “We may see a huge dump because it’s September and it’s statistically the worst performing month for Bitcoin and also for the stock market,” the analyst stated. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price is struggling to recover above $111,500. BTC is now consolidating and might decline if there is a move below the $110,000 level. Bitcoin started a recovery wave above the $110,500 zone. The price is trading below $111,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $110,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might start another decline if it stays below the $111,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Struggles To Recover Bitcoin price started a fresh recovery wave above the $112,000 zone but upside was limited. BTC peaked near $113,500 and started a fresh decline. There was a move below the $112,000 and $115,000 levels. The price even tested the $110,000 zone. The recent low was formed at $110,039 and the price is now consolidating. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $113,372 swing high to the $110,039 low. However, the bears are active below the $112,000 level. Bitcoin is now trading below $111,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Besides, there is a bullish trend line forming with support at $110,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $111,250 level. The first key resistance is near the $111,700 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $113,372 swing high to the $110,039 low. The next resistance could be $112,580. A close above the $112,580 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $113,500 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $114,200 level. The main target could be $115,000. Another Drop In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $112,000 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Immediate support is near the $110,500 level and the trend line. The first major support is near the $110,000 level. The next support is now near the $109,350 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $108,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $107,500, below which BTC might decline sharply. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $110,500, followed by $109,350. Major Resistance Levels – $112,000 and $112,580.
The Bitcoin price has managed to stay above $110,000 over the weekend, and on-chain data shows that the premier cryptocurrency sits above three crucial support levels. Here are the critical levels to watch out for over the next few weeks. Where Are The Next Support Levels For BTC? On Saturday, September 6, prominent crypto analyst Ali Martinez took to the social media platform X to offer on-chain insights into the current layout of the Bitcoin price. This price evaluation, which revolves around the BTC UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) metric, shows the next support levels for Bitcoin. Related Reading: Bitcoin Treasury Purchases Down Amid Record Holdings – What Does This Mean? The capacity for a price level to act as an on-chain support or resistance zone usually depends on the number of investors who have their cost basis at the given level. An investor’s cost basis refers to the actual price at which they purchased a cryptocurrency (Bitcoin, in this case). The relevant indicator here—UTXO Realized Price Distribution—tracks the amount of a particular cryptocurrency that was acquired at a specific price level. Typically, price levels below the current spot value with substantial buying activity are often considered as major support zones. Meanwhile, levels above the current price with significant investor cost bases usually act as major resistance areas. As shown in the chart above, $108,250, $104,250, and $97,050 are the next crucial support levels for the Bitcoin price. Data from Glassnode shows that nearly 432,000 coins were bought in the $108,250 zone, while roughly 401,000 coins were purchased around the $104,250 region. Meanwhile, 404,000 BTC were acquired around the $97,054 area. The rationale behind this is that investors with a cost basis around these price levels are likely to double down on their positions and purchase more coins. This increased buying activity will, hence, provide a cushion for the Bitcoin price to stay afloat and potentially bounce back. It’s worth mentioning that the next major resistance level for the Bitcoin price based on the URPD metric is around $116,963. Several investors (550,000 coins) around this level are likely to close their positions when the price returns to its cost basis, thereby putting downward pressure on the BTC price. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $110,628, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the premier cryptocurrency is up by more than 1% in the past seven days. Related Reading: Strategy Expands Bitcoin Treasury: $450 Million Purchase Sends Total Holdings To New Highs Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
The price of Bitcoin has shown signs of resilience and strength over this weekend after facing significant bearish pressure heading into it. On Friday, August 5, the flagship cryptocurrency suffered a mild correction following the release of weaker-than-expected employment data in the United States. While the Bitcoin price has struggled to break out of its current choppy state, its sustained hold above the psychological $110,000 level displays the current resolution of investors. The latest on-chain data suggests that the market might have absorbed excess selling pressure and could be regaining momentum. Is BTC Ready For A Sustained Move Higher? In a September 6 post on the X platform, pseudonymous crypto analyst Frank revealed a shift in the activity of a key group of Bitcoin investors over the past few weeks. According to the market quant, BTC’s short-term holders (STH) (with coin holdings less than 155 days old) are beginning to lock in some of their profits. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run Nears Its Climax: Cycle Peak Indicates 95% Completion This on-chain observation is based on the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) metric, which assesses the profitability ratio of spent outputs (held for more than 1 hour but less than 155 days). This indicator provides insight into whether STHs are selling at a profit or at a loss. When the Bitcoin STH-SOPR metric has a value greater than 1, it implies that the short-term investors are selling at a profit. On the other hand, an STH-SOPR value less than 1 suggests that the short-term holders are capitulating and selling at a loss. Frank shared that the Bitcoin STH-SOPR metric has returned above the critical 1 threshold level for the first time in 20 days. This means that the short-term investors, who were busy selling at a loss the past three weeks, are now back realizing profits. Typically, when the STH-SOPR metric is below 1, it means that weak hands are exiting the market, enabling the diamond hands (long-term investors) to accumulate. Meanwhile, a return above the 1 threshold could mark the end of that distribution period, with a recovery rally typically on the horizon. However, the pertinent question remains whether the past 20 days were enough to shake out the weak hands for the next leg up. Frank noted that the market could want to inflict more pain on the short-term holder cohort before the next move higher. Hence, investors might want to exercise caution before making a decision, as the market seems to be at a critical juncture. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands around $110,200, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours. According to CoinGecko, the market leader is up by nearly 2% in the last seven days. Related Reading: Bitcoin Holds Key Support Amid Gravestone Doji – $120,000 Hangs In Balance Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
In his latest daily technical outlook, Cryptowzrd highlighted that Bitcoin closed the day with a gravestone doji, while holding above a critical level. According to the analysis, more bullish candles are needed to sustain momentum and push the price toward the $120,000 resistance, especially as the market contends with ongoing fundamental pressures. Fundamentals Support Bitcoin Despite Weak NFP Print Cryptowzrd highlighted that the daily candle of Bitcoin closed indecisively, signaling uncertainty as the market evaluates its next move. Despite this indecision, BTC remains above the crucial $110,500 level, which continues to serve as a strong support zone. This level remains critical in determining whether bullish momentum can be sustained in the short term. Related Reading: Bitcoin Battles Key Support: Can September’s Dip Set The Stage For A Q4 Rally? The analyst noted that Bitcoin has maintained its bullish edge even in the face of a lower-than-expected NFP print, triggered by fundamental commentary. This development suggests that broader market sentiment is still supportive of BTC, and technical strength is being reinforced by macroeconomic factors. From a weekly perspective, traditional markets have closed on a bullish note, adding further support to Bitcoin’s potential upside. However, a series of consecutive bullish daily candles is needed to solidify confidence in a rally toward the $120,000 resistance level. Without this confirmation, the market could remain in a holding pattern, leaving room for volatility and short-term swings. On the downside, he cautioned that if Bitcoin breaks below the $110,500 level by mid-week, it could open the door for a deeper correction, potentially testing the $100,000 support zone. Such a move would shift market dynamics, increasing selling pressure and creating strategic opportunities for traders to position for short-term downside plays. Over the weekend, Cryptowzrd will be closely monitoring lower-time frame charts to identify actionable scalp opportunities while ensuring that the current position above $110,500 remains secure. Intraday Volatility Driven By NFP And Market Fundamentals Concluding his analysis, the analyst highlighted that the intraday chart of BTC has been volatile, influenced by recent fundamental commentary and the lower-than-expected NFP print. This volatility reflects the market’s uncertainty, as traders weigh both technical and macroeconomic factors. Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Base Turns Neutral-Bearish As Flows Stay Weak He noted that a decisive move above $113,200 would signal stronger bullish momentum, potentially pushing Bitcoin higher and helping to secure the current position. Such a breakout signals that buyers are regaining control of the market. On the other hand, a drop below $110,400 could open the door for additional downside. For now, the analyst plans to wait patiently for the market to form a more mature trade setup before taking the next actionable position. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a moderate price rebound last week, rallying to around $113,000 before witnessing a minor setback. The crypto market leader now trades near the $111,000 price level and stands 10.46% away from its all-time high. Meanwhile, recent data from blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant has highlighted an intriguing trend in the accumulating activity of Bitcoin treasuries. Related Reading: Old Bitcoin Supply Unlocks: 7,626 BTC Aged 3–5 Years Moves Onchain Bitcoin Treasury Holdings Hit 840K In 2025 In a weekly report posted on September 5, CryptoQuant reports that Bitcoin treasury holdings by public and private companies have reached a new record of 840,000 BTC in 2025, representing the overwhelming institutional interest seen in the present market cycle. However, beneath this headline milestone lies a stark, cautious shift in market dynamics. Notably, monthly purchases have slowed dramatically, raising questions about the sustainability of corporate demand for Bitcoin. Through combined efforts with bitcointreasuries.net.data, CryptoQuant has discovered that Strategy, being the most aggressive institutional accumulator of Bitcoin, has sharply reduced its buying pace by 97% over the last 12 months. Notably, after acquiring an all-time high of 134,000 BTC in November 2024, the Saylor-led company’s purchases dropped to just 3,700 BTC in August 2025. While other Bitcoin treasuries have stepped in more cautiously, adding 14,800 BTC in August compared to Strategy’s relatively small 3,700 BTC buy, their volumes remain far below the peaks seen earlier in 2025. Notably, these other companies had produced a temporary surge in early 2025, recording a 66,000 BTC all-time high purchase in January, which has clearly faded following their August reports. Notably, all this data indicates that while total holdings are at record levels, the flow of new institutional money appears to be drying up. Related Reading: Bitcoin Mining Turns To Clean Energy Alternatives — Here’s Why Bitcoin Price Overview At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $110,942, up by 0.48% over the past 24 hours. Daily trading volume has also increased by 4.56% to $61.05 billion, indicating steady market activity. However, the cryptocurrency faces headwinds, with a 3.76% monthly loss underscoring its fragile momentum. The next key resistance level sits near $113,700, a zone that has already proven difficult to break on two separate occasions over the past month. Meanwhile, with Bitcoin price direction largely uncertain, CryptoQuant’s report suggests corporate treasuries appear hesitant to allocate further capital at scale, preferring smaller, more conservative purchases. This behavior signals that while the narrative of Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset persists, incremental demand growth is slowing. In addition, it raises significant concerns about the potential behavior of these treasury companies during the much-anticipated crypto winter. Featured image from istock, chart from Tradingview
The Bitcoin price has enjoyed some level of resurgence over the past week, starting from below $108,000 to as high as $113,000. However, the premier cryptocurrency’s progress hit a stumbling block following the release of weaker-than-expected United States payrolls data on Friday, September 5. Despite the bearish pressure triggered by the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release, the price of Bitcoin managed to stay above the psychological $110,000 level. Interestingly, the latest analysis suggests that the latest job data could guide the Bitcoin price to a new high. Macro Shift To Kickstart Next BTC Price Rally? In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, market analysis firm XWIN Research Japan explained how weak labor data in the US could see the Bitcoin price embark on its next bullish wave. According to the analytics firm, history shows a paradox despite rising unemployment often linked to weak performances by risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run Nears Its Climax: Cycle Peak Indicates 95% Completion XWIN mentioned that on-chain stablecoin data offers insight into how this “macro story” could unfold, especially in relation to the cryptocurrency market. The crypto trading firm then highlighted two “distinct waves of activity” that establish the connection between unemployment and crypto market positioning. In the first wave (between late 2024 and early 2025), investors expected the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates as the labor market weakness first emerged. Capital flowed into exchanges with the surge in stablecoin reserves from $30 billion to $50 billion, showing the investors’ preparedness for a macroeconomic shift. The second wave (from mid-2025 to present) has seen unemployment rising again. Similarly, stablecoin exchange reserves recently hit $58.5 billion, while depositing addresses have frequently surpassed 30,000 BTC, with highs near 40,000 BTC. “This isn’t just accumulation—it reflects broader participation, from whales to retail, mobilizing funds in anticipation of easier policy,” XWIN added. According to XWIN, the thinking is that the rising unemployment in the United States could be linked to stronger expectations of Fed rate cuts. With more capital stored in stablecoins on exchanges, ready to buy more coins, the weak jobs data could be the foundation for a fresh rally for Bitcoin. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $110,780, reflecting no significant changes in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the market leader is up by almost 3% in the last seven days. Related Reading: Safe Haven Split: Bitcoin-Gold Correlation Turns Negative For First Time In 6 Months Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin prices have dipped by over 10% since establishing a new all-time high (ATH) of $124,457 on August 14. As with all previous retracements after a new ATH, this recent correction has sparked much speculation on the market peak price. The Bitcoin Decay Channel, a market prediction model, has provided insights into the potential market top price zones for the present cycle. Related Reading: Safe Haven Split: Bitcoin-Gold Correlation Turns Negative For First Time In 6 Months Bitcoin Decay Channel Hints At $200K–$290K Top, Tips Cycle To Extend To 2026 In an X post on September 5, a Bitcoin researcher with the X username Sminston With shares some important data from the Bitcoin Decay Channel on a potential peak price for the current market cycle. For context, the Bitcoin Decay Channel is a long-term logarithmic regression model that attempts to map Bitcoin’s price cycles, specifically its historical peaks and bottoms, within statistically derived boundaries. This pricing model shows that while Bitcoin follows boom-and-bust patterns, its growth rate decays over time as each cycle delivers smaller percentage gains than the last. Notably, data from the Bitcoin Decay channel chart shows the premier cryptocurrency is steadily climbing within the 0.05 quantile support and upper bound resistance lines, with oscillations that mark historical overheated zones. The embedded oscillator suggests BTC is not yet at a euphoric peak, leaving room for further upside before a long-term top forms. Based on more data, Sminston With explains that the present Bitcoin market cycle could see a price top between late 2025 and late 2026. If Bitcoin peaks in December 2025, the price range would sit between $205,000 and $230,000. However, should the cycle extend into 2026, projections rise incrementally, i.e. $208,000-$235,000 by Jan 2026, $219,000–$250,000 by April 2026, $230,000-$265,000 by July 2026, $243,000-$282,000 by October 2026, and as high as $250,000–$292,000 by year-end 2026. Regardless of which price top scenario, the Bitcoin Decay Channel presents a potential peak zone between $205,000 and $292,000 within the next 12-15 months. This presents a possible price gain of 86% in the base case and 167% in a bull case scenario. Related Reading: Ethereum Whales Go On Buying Spree Amid Crash To $4,200, Here’s How Much They Bought Bitcoin Price Outlook At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $110,900, reflecting a 0.45% price increase in the past day. Meanwhile, weekly gains are now up by 2.89% showing a moderate recovery. Interestingly, Coincodex analysts are predicting the premier cryptocurrency to maintain this rebound, rising to $121,276 in five days. With a market cap of $2.2 trillion, Bitcoin remains the largest currency and fifth largest in the world. Featured image from iStock, chart on Tradingview.com
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen three waves of major inflows from the veteran hands in this cycle so far. Bitcoin Coin Days Destroyed Shot Up Alongside Earlier ETF Net Inflows As explained by CryptoQuant author Maartunn in a new post on X, Bitcoin has been observing major reshuffles related to old tokens and the spot ETFs. The spot ETFs refer to investment vehicles that trade on traditional platforms and allow investors to gain exposure to an underlying asset like BTC without having to directly own the asset. The BTC spot ETFs launched in the US in January 2024. Since then, the funds have generally enjoyed growth, with a few periods involving a particularly sharp burst of inflows. The main attraction of the ETFs is that investors unfamiliar with the cryptocurrency world can invest into BTC in a form that’s convenient to them. Related Reading: Safe Haven Split: Bitcoin-Gold Correlation Turns Negative For First Time In 6 Months When a trader invests into such a vehicle, the fund buys an equivalent amount of the cryptocurrency on the client’s behalf. This reflects as an on-chain movement into the wallets associated with the ETF. Below is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the 30-day Bitcoin spot ETF netflow since the start of 2024. As displayed in the graph, the Bitcoin spot ETF netflow has seen a few phases of extremely positive values. These naturally correspond to a high amount of demand for the ETFs. Interestingly, there is a pattern common among these large waves of inflows. From the chart, it’s visible that the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) gave distribution signals alongside the netflow spikes. The CDD is an on-chain indicator that measures the total number of coin days that are being “destroyed” in transactions across the BTC network. A coin day is a quantity that one BTC accumulates after staying dormant on the blockchain for one day. When a token dormant for some number days is moved, its coin days counter returns back to zero. The coin days that it had previously been carrying are said to be destroyed. Generally, spikes in this metric correspond to activity from the diamond hands of the network. These HODLers tend to accumulate a massive amount of coin days with their patience, so when they finally break their silence, large-scale destruction of coin days takes places. The three major Bitcoin ETF net inflow waves of Summer 2024, Fall 2024, and Summer 2025 all accompanied a distribution signal from the CDD, which suggests a rotation of coins happened from the veteran hands to new demand coming through these vehicles. Related Reading: Dogecoin Signal That Nailed The Top Says It’s Time To Buy Since the latest such wave, the ETF netflow has calmed down to the neutral level, meaning demand has gone cold. “ETF inflows are key,” notes Maartunn. “Without strong new demand, selling pressure from new holders could increase.” BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $110,500, up 2% over the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) has recently reached a new weekly high above the $112,000 mark, signaling a potential new uptrend for the leading cryptocurrency. This movement may represent the final phase of the current cycle for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. Market analyst CryptoBirb has indicated that this uptrend could last for approximately 50 more days, emphasizing that Bitcoin is now 95% through its cycle, which has spanned 1,017 days since the lows of November 2022. 50 Days Until Possible Bitcoin Peak Historically, Bitcoin’s bull markets have peaked between 1,060 and 1,100 days after significant lows, suggesting a target timeframe for this cycle’s peak could fall between late October and mid-November 2025. The analysis highlights the typical relationship between Bitcoin’s Halving events and subsequent price peaks. Since the last Halving in April 2024, 503 days have passed, with past data showing that price peaks usually occur 518 to 580 days following such events. Related Reading: First US Dogecoin ETF Could Debut Next Week—How Will It Impact Price? As seen in the chart below, Bitcoin is currently 77% to 86% of the way through this timeline, entering what the analyst refers to as the “hot zone”—a period of heightened volatility and potential price movements. However, CryptoBirb cautions that historical trends indicate that after reaching a peak, Bitcoin typically experiences a significant decline, often dropping by 70% to 80% over a 370 to 410-day timeframe. This bearish phase is projected for approximately the first and second quarter of 2026, with a historical probability of a bear market in that year reaching 100%. Before this potential downturn, the analyst expects a final surge, with about 50 days remaining before the market may peak. September, often recognized as a weaker month for Bitcoin, has shown an average decline of 6.17%. Although third quarter statistics can be mixed, with a median increase of 0.80%, the overall average tends to reflect a decline due to larger losses. The typical seasonal pattern suggests that a poor September could be followed by stronger performance in October and November, with September 17 identified as a crucial date to watch by the analyst. Critical Support And Resistance Levels On the technical front, Key support levels are identified at the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) of $95,900 and the 200-week SMA at $52,300. The daily chart reveals further technical insights, including a 200-day breakout point at $111,000 and a 200-day SMA at $101,000. CryptoBirb has identified local support between $107,700 and $108,700, while resistance sits at $113,000 to $114,100. Related Reading: XRP Price Could See 20% Bounce To $3.4 If This Trendline Holds Looking ahead, both short-term and long-term trading trailers are currently in a bearish mode. CryptoBirb asserts that if Bitcoin falls below the critical levels of $107,000 to $108,000, bearish sentiment could intensify, potentially leading to secondary corrections in the range of 20% to 30%. Fortunately, cryptocurrency miners appear to be faring well, with the mining cost established at $95,400, suggesting a healthy market environment with minimal capitulation risk. Lastly, the analyst cautions against the potential for a market peak leading into the altcoin season in October and November. CryptoBirb suggests to mark calendars for October 22, as it could be a pivotal date in Bitcoin’s cycle. As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $112,886, down nearly 11% from all-time high levels. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is now trading more than 9% below its $124,500 all-time high, reflecting the weight of recent selling pressure. Despite the pullback, bears have struggled to push the price below the $105,000 support zone, a level that has so far acted as a firm floor for the market. The debate among analysts is intensifying—some are calling for a deeper correction that could reset overheated sentiment, while others see current price action as a prelude to another test of all-time highs. Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Base Turns Neutral-Bearish As Flows Stay Weak Top analyst Maartunn shared fresh insights, describing the current environment as a “major Bitcoin reshuffle.” According to him, old coins are increasingly flowing into ETF wallets, a phenomenon marked by three significant waves: summer 2024, fall 2024, and summer 2025. Unlike past cycles, where such redistribution events typically occurred once before fading, this cycle has shown a repeated pattern of supply rotation. This unusual trend highlights a structural shift in Bitcoin’s market dynamics. Long-term holders appear to be reducing exposure, while ETFs and institutional vehicles continue to absorb supply. Whether this redistribution stabilizes the market or fuels further volatility will be a defining factor for Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming months. Old Bitcoin Supply Unlocks: Market Dynamics In Focus According to Maartunn, a significant movement of 7,626 BTC aged between three to five years has recently taken place. This type of activity is notable because it signals long-term holders deciding to release dormant coins back into circulation. Historically, such events often coincide with heightened market uncertainty and shifts in investor behavior, reinforcing the narrative that old supply continues to play a decisive role in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory. Despite this selling pressure, Bitcoin has managed to hold above the $110,000 level, showing resilience in the face of profit-taking from long-term holders. This stability is encouraging, as it demonstrates that buyers are stepping in to absorb supply, though the strength of that demand remains in question. Some market participants are pointing to ETF inflows as the primary reason Bitcoin has avoided a sharper correction. ETFs, by nature, act as a consistent demand sink, channeling institutional capital into Bitcoin through regulated frameworks. However, the risk remains that without robust new demand, the selling pressure from newly unlocked coins could begin to outweigh buying interest. If this happens, recent holders may face the brunt of volatility. For now, the market appears to be balancing between long-term holders’ profit-taking and institutional accumulation. This emerging dynamic highlights how Bitcoin’s current cycle differs from previous ones—ETF participation and repeated redistribution of old coins are reshaping the market structure. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether ETF inflows are strong enough to offset the increased activity of older supply and keep Bitcoin on a bullish path. Related Reading: Bitmine Adds Another $65.3M In Ethereum – Details Testing Mid-Range Resistance Levels Bitcoin is currently trading at $112,409, showing a modest recovery after recent volatility. The chart highlights a rebound from the $109K–$110K demand zone, which has acted as short-term support during the past week. However, BTC now faces resistance as it tests the 50-day moving average (blue line at $111,661) and the 100-day moving average (green line at $114,382). These levels represent key barriers for bulls attempting to reclaim higher ground. The broader picture shows BTC still lagging behind its all-time high near $124,500, marked by the yellow resistance line. Despite multiple attempts, Bitcoin has struggled to generate enough momentum to retest this level, largely due to persistent selling pressure and cautious sentiment among traders. The red 200-day moving average at $114,746 sits just above current price action, creating a cluster of resistance levels that could limit upside in the near term. Related Reading: BNB Chain Surpasses 650M Unique Addresses – Binance Adoption Continues If Bitcoin manages to close above $114K, it would confirm bullish continuation and potentially set the stage for a retest of the $120K–$124K zone. Conversely, failure to sustain above $110K could see BTC revisiting lower supports around $106K–$108K. For now, consolidation dominates, with bulls needing fresh demand to push beyond resistance. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin mining is undergoing a profound shift by increasingly adopting alternative renewable energy sources. This trend has led to a remarkable change in the industry’s energy profile, with more than half of the network’s power now coming from sustainable sources. Why Renewable Energy Is Becoming A Strategic Edge For Miners In an X post, Natalie Brunell explained that Bitcoin mining is a unique process that consumes energy to secure the network, while ensuring its integrity and scarcity. Unlike traditional currencies that a central authority can print, Bitcoin’s supply is fixed. Related Reading: Bitcoin Mining Can’t Keep Up: Companies Buying At Quadruple Pace – Report The process of mining is the only way to introduce new Bitcoin into circulation, and it requires expanding real-world resources, specifically energy, to validate transactions and secure the network. This design makes the network inherently ethical and resistant to manipulation because no single entity controls the supply or has the power to create more Bitcoin. However, what makes Bitcoin mining particularly innovative is its flexible and location-agnostic nature. Miners are increasingly plugging into alternative and cheapest renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and hydropower, which is often found in places with abundant underutilized or stranded renewable energy, such as East Texas. This flexibility allows Bitcoin miners to act as a crucial stabilizing force for the energy grid. Instead of staining the grid, they help to balance it. When the supply of renewable energy is high and demand is low, miners can soak up the excess power that would otherwise be wasted. Meanwhile, when demand from homes and businesses spikes, miners can shut down in seconds, instantly giving that power back to the grid. This makes them a valuable component of the energy sector, helping to make renewable energy more economically viable. Marathon’s Position Among Public Bitcoin Miners Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) has delivered a strong performance, highlighting its strategic position as both a Bitcoin miner and a significant corporate holder of the asset. The company’s August report showcases its dual-engine strategy of mining and strategic purchasing. Related Reading: Bitcoin Eyes $150,000 As Binance Illiquid Supply Hits Record Highs In August, Marathon mined 705 BTC and also made a major move by purchasing an additional 1,133 BTC, actively adding to its treasury. The company’s energized hash rate now stands at an impressive 59.4 EH/s, holding 52,477 BTC in its balance sheet as of the end of August. This shows a proactive approach to accumulating Bitcoin, leveraging market conditions to strengthen its balance sheet. Following this strong August, Marathon mined another 82.6 BTC in September. This continued growth has expanded its Bitcoin treasury to nearly 52,560 BTC, cementing its status as one of the largest publicly traded holders of the digital asset. According to the company’s data, every common share of MARA is backed by $15.68 worth of BTC. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin is trading above the $112,000 level, but its momentum is faltering as selling pressure intensifies. Analysts are divided on what comes next, with some calling for another correction and others suggesting that BTC may continue consolidating before any decisive move. The uncertainty highlights the fragile balance between bullish optimism and market caution. Related Reading: Bitmine Adds Another $65.3M In Ethereum – Details Top analyst Darkfost shared insights that bring back a long-running debate: Does Bitcoin’s traditional cycle structure still hold? While opinions vary, one factor remains consistent across cycles—the influence of long-term holders. Dormant BTC, when moved, often unleashes powerful selling pressure, a dynamic still capable of shaking the market. This cycle has already confirmed that pattern. As BTC climbed to its all-time high earlier this year, Coin Days Destroyed (CDD)—a key on-chain metric tracking the movement of older coins—spiked noticeably. Historically, such spikes have aligned with tops and significant corrections, showing that long-term holders continue to play a decisive role in shaping market direction. Value Days Destroyed Signals Potential Relief For Bitcoin According to Darkfost, the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) metric is offering crucial insights into Bitcoin’s current market structure. Much like Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), VDD tracks the movement of older coins, but it adds another layer by weighting this activity according to price. This adjustment introduces the concept of “value destruction,” giving more weight to long-term holders selling when BTC prices are higher, and less when they are lower. As a result, VDD provides a more nuanced picture of the influence older coins exert on the market. Recently, VDD reached a level of 2.4, a threshold historically associated with significant selling pressure. In past cycles, spikes to this range have often marked moments when long-term holders locked in profits, contributing to local tops or sharp corrections. The latest spike aligned with Bitcoin’s push to its all-time high, reflecting the familiar pattern of dormant supply resurfacing at peak prices. However, VDD has since been declining, now approaching levels similar to those seen during prior correction phases. This suggests that the intensity of selling from long-term holders is easing. If this trend continues, the market may find relief from one of its most persistent sources of supply pressure. Ultimately, easing VDD levels could set the stage for renewed upward momentum, but the key factor will be demand. Without strong inflows and renewed conviction from buyers, the reduction in selling pressure alone may not be enough to spark a sustainable rally. Still, the moderation of long-term holder activity is a promising sign that Bitcoin could stabilize and prepare for another attempt higher in the coming weeks. Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Base Turns Neutral-Bearish As Flows Stay Weak Price Action Details: Pushing Above $110K Bitcoin is currently trading at $112,286, showing a slight recovery after weeks of selling pressure that pulled the price down from its recent all-time high near $123,217. The chart reveals that BTC is still consolidating within a corrective structure, testing the mid-range between support and resistance levels. The 50-day moving average (blue line) is trending above the current price, acting as near-term resistance around $115K, while the 100-day moving average (green line) sits close to current levels, providing a short-term pivot point. The 200-day moving average (red line) is much lower at $101K, serving as a deeper structural support if bearish pressure intensifies. Related Reading: Bitcoin And Ethereum Exchange Inflows Overshadow Stablecoin Demand – Details BTC is forming higher lows after its recent dip to the $110K area, signaling that buyers are cautiously stepping back in. However, momentum remains limited, and the chart shows the market has yet to reclaim any major resistance levels. A breakout above $115K would be needed to shift sentiment and open the way toward retesting the $120K–$123K zone. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
Data shows the correlation between Bitcoin and Gold has turned negative, a sign that the two assets are moving in the direction opposite to each other. Correlation Coefficient Is Now Underwater For Bitcoin & Gold In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about the latest trend in the Correlation Coefficient between Bitcoin and Gold. The Correlation Coefficient is a tool from statistics that measures the relationship between two given variables over a given period, typically one month. In the current case, the variables are the prices of BTC and Gold. Related Reading: Dogecoin Signal That Nailed The Top Says It’s Time To Buy When the value of the metric is positive, it means the price of one asset is reacting to movements in the other by traveling in the same direction. The closer is the indicator to 1, the stronger is this relationship. On the other hand, the coefficient being under zero implies there exists a negative correlation between the two assets. That is, they are moving opposite to each other. The extreme point for this side lies at -1. There also exists a third case for the Correlation Coefficient: a level exactly equal to zero. Such a value indicates no correlation whatsoever exists between the assets. In other words, their prices are independent of each other. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Coefficient Correlation for Bitcoin and Gold over the past year: As displayed in the above graph, the Correlation Coefficient between Bitcoin and Gold shot up to a high above 0.5 back in June, suggesting the assets’ prices were tied to some degree. Following this peak, however, the correlation between the assets began to weaken, with the metric’s value slipping down. For a while it maintained inside the positive territory, but recently, that has changed. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales Cut Back: Average Holdings At Lowest Since 2018 Gold has seen a price rally while BTC has been facing bearish action, resulting in the Correlation Coefficient turning slightly negative. This is the first time since February that the indicator has gone underwater. For now, the two assets are almost independent, but it remains to be seen whether the negative correlation will continue to grow in the coming days. Gold is the traditional safe-haven asset, while Bitcoin is associated as its digital counterpart. Periods where the two assets diverge can challenge the narrative for BTC. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $110,100, down almost 2% over the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
The recent Bitcoin (BTC) price correction has sent ripples through the broader cryptocurrency market, pushing many assets into the red. On Tuesday, Bitcoin fell below $110,000, marking a 12% decline from its all-time high. Experts are now warning that the situation could worsen as October approaches. Crypto Market’s Imminent Downturn Market analyst OxPepesso took to the social media platform X (formerly Twitter) to explain his decision to liquidate all his crypto holdings by October. He identified key factors based on historical patterns that influenced his decision. According to the analyst, many traders mistakenly believe that the upcoming altcoin season will last six to eight months. OxPepesso’s analysis indicates that altcoin season is anticipated to begin in late September to early October. He notes that Bitcoin is losing its dominance, while the resurgence of memecoins and growing momentum in the Ethereum (ETH) ecosystem signal a shift in market dynamics. Related Reading: Cardano Sentiment Crashes To 5-Month Low As ADA Defends Key Price Level Technical setups also appear to align with macroeconomic trends, suggesting that the market is nearing an “overheating phase.” He warns that following this peak, an “uncontrollable collapse” could occur, leading to significant losses for altcoins. The analyst also highlights the use of various indicators, such as the Extreme Oscillators, which measure market overheating or oversold conditions. Currently, this indicator sits at 1-2, suggesting that the market has not yet reached an overheated state, but the risk of a downturn looms. Another tool in OxPepesso’s analytical arsenal is the MVRV Bands, which assess the ratio of Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value. When this metric approaches its upper bands, it signals that the crypto market is becoming overheated, increasing the risk of a price drop. Although today’s readings remain below critical levels, the analyst asserts that there are signs indicating the market is heading in that direction. This could potentially worsen the broader crypto market’s retracement as the October deadline approaches. Analyst Predicts Lower Bitcoin Prices The Pi Cycle Top indicator, which tracks the crossover of the 111-day and 350-day moving averages, is another focal point in OxPepesso’s analysis. Although the lines have not yet crossed, the chart below shows that the gap is closing rapidly, suggesting that a market top could be imminent. Related Reading: XRP Millionaires Dump After Major Accumulation Trend, Will It Be A Red September? Additionally, Onchain Originals Price Models are being monitored, as they reflect investor behavior and establish Bitcoin’s value ranges, identifying support and overheating levels that indicate the current phase of the crypto cycle. In light of these indicators, OxPepesso notes that the current cycle is nearing its final phase. This sentiment is echoed by fellow market analyst Doctor Profit, who recently intensified his bearish stance. Initially, he had projected that the market’s leading crypto could reach a new all-time high after hitting the $90,000 to $95,000 range. However, he now considers the possibility of lower price points, stating that he sees little to be bullish about. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price is attempting a recovery wave above $111,500. BTC is now rising and might gain pace if it clears the $112,000 resistance level. Bitcoin started a recovery wave above the $111,000 zone. The price is trading above $111,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $111,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might start another decline if it stays below the $112,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Eyes Upside Break Bitcoin price started a fresh recovery wave above the $109,650 zone. BTC was able to climb above the $110,200 and $110,500 resistance levels. The recent swing low was formed at $109,369 before the price climbed again. There was a move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $112,537 swing high to the $109,369 low. However, the bears are active below the $112,000 level. Bitcoin is now trading above $111,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $111,600 level. Besides, there is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $111,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The first key resistance is near the $111,800 level or the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $112,537 swing high to the $109,369 low. The next resistance could be $112,000. A close above the $112,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $112,500 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $113,200 level. The main target could be $115,000. Another Drop In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $112,000 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Immediate support is near the $111,000 level. The first major support is near the $110,350 level. The next support is now near the $109,350 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $108,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $107,500, below which BTC might decline sharply. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $110,350, followed by $109,350. Major Resistance Levels – $112,000 and $112,500.
The Bitcoin price has soared to historic highs this year, but not everyone believes the rally will last. A new warning from a crypto analyst suggests that the world’s largest cryptocurrency could be on the verge of a dramatic price crash, with the possibility of erasing nearly all of its gains and tumbling back to levels not seen in years. Why A 90% Bitcoin Price Crash Could Be Ahead In a recent interview on the David Lin Report, a financial news channel on YouTube, Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone issued a stark warning for Bitcoin holders. After years of accurately calling key price levels, including the surge to $100,000, McGlone now predicts that BTC could wipe out more than 90% of its gains, potentially falling back to $10,000 in this market cycle. Related Reading: Pundit Calls Bitcoin Price Crash Below $93,000, Reveals Bear Targets From Here The Bloomberg strategist explained that Bitcoin’s climb to six figures on December 6 marked a major psychological threshold. According to him, that milestone was less a sign of long-term strength and more a signal that the market had overheated. He described the surge as a textbook example of “selling when there’s yelling,” meaning that investors often get caught up in the euphoria at the top. Since Bitcoin crossed $100,000 on December 6, McGlone noted that gold has appreciated roughly 30%, while BTC has added only about 8%. Stock market benchmarks such as the S&P 500 have also posted modest returns in the same period, leaving digital assets struggling to show dominance. McGlone highlighted the growing connection between Bitcoin and broader equity markets, noting that its 48-month correlation with the S&P 500 now stands at 0.6. He suggested that this pattern underscores Bitcoin’s transformation into a risk-on asset, moving in tandem with stock market performance rather than acting as an independent store of value. Adding to his bearish stance, the Bloomberg strategist pointed out that volatility signals are shifting. In August, the Volatility Index (VIX) hit its lowest level of the year at around 14.2, while Bitcoin simultaneously reached new highs. By the end of the same month, volatility spiked again, suggesting that market sentiment may be changing. For McGlone, these signals indicate that investors should prepare for a potential correction phase, with gold likely to continue outperforming BTC and other speculative assets. Analyst Says Bitcoin To $1 Million Is Unlikely During the interview, Lin questioned whether Bitcoin could ever climb to $1 million, pointing to the same logic that took the asset naturally from $10,000 to $100,000. McGlone dismissed the idea, stressing that today’s market environment is fundamentally different and does not support such an outcome. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Price Bottom In? Here’s What Social Sentiment Says The Bloomberg strategist explained that when Bitcoin was trading near $10,000, market sentiment was profoundly negative, which created the ideal conditions for a long-term rally. By contrast, at a price above $100,000, the current market is crowded with long positions, making it harder for BTC to sustain upward momentum. In his view, the sheer weight of speculative exposure has left Bitcoin vulnerable to a potential retracement rather than setting the stage for exponential growth. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
After hitting its latest all-time high (ATH) on August 14, Bitcoin (BTC) has been on a steady decline, trading just above the $110,000 level at the time of writing. While some analysts opine that the crypto bull run may be over, on-chain data suggests that there is at least one more major leg up ahead for BTC. Bitcoin Bull Market Over? Not Quite According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor CoinCare, as much as 50,000 BTC has been withdrawn over the past two days from crypto exchange Kraken. This was followed by another major withdrawal of 15,000 BTC. The CryptoQuant analyst stated that such significant withdrawals are not something that is typically observed near the peak of a bull market cycle. Instead, at market tops, exchanges witness an influx of BTC or other cryptocurrencies, signalling distribution. Related Reading: Bitcoin Eyes $150,000 As Binance Illiquid Supply Hits Record Highs Although retail demand for BTC is currently fragile, a few big wallets are still accumulating BTC in large quantities. Past data shows that retail demand for BTC surges rapidly at bull market tops. However, the current tepid demand suggests that BTC has “at least one major leg up ahead.” That said, fellow CryptoQuant analyst caueconomy offered a contrasting take. According to their analysis, major BTC holders continue to reduce their exposure to the digital asset, recently reaching the largest coin distribution in 2025. Notably, BTC whale reserves have tumbled by 100,000 coins in the past 30 days, showing high risk aversion among large investors. As a result, heightened selling pressure has been weighing down on the BTC price, pushing it below $108,000 in late August. The analyst added: At this time, we are still seeing these reductions in the portfolios of major players, which may continue to pressure Bitcoin in the coming weeks. Technicals Point Toward Renewed Strength While BTC whales – investors holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC – may be reducing their exposure to the cryptocurrency, technicals point toward further room for growth for the leading digital asset by market cap. Related Reading: Bitcoin Delta Cap And Coinbase Premium Gap Signal Resilient Market Structure – Details For instance, noted crypto analyst Titan of Crypto shared the following chart on X, saying that BTC is close to invalidating the bearish double-top pattern on the daily chart. Once BTC convincingly pushes above the neckline, it could provide new bullish momentum to the asset. That said, there are some signs of caution. For instance, crypto analyst Doctor Profit recently stated that if BTC fails to defend the $107,000 – $108,000 support level, then it may risk falling all the way down to $90,000. Similarly, a breakdown below the $98,000 level could spell disaster for the flagship cryptocurrency. However, the long-term bull case for BTC remains intact. At press time, BTC trades at $110,460, down 0.9% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com