Bitcoin price is consolidating gains above $113,500. BTC could rise further if there is a clear move above the $115,750 resistance. Bitcoin started a fresh upward move above the $114,000 resistance level. The price is trading above $114,200 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $113,900 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it trades above the $115,750 zone. Bitcoin Price Starts Consolidation Bitcoin price formed a base and started a fresh increase above the $112,500 zone. BTC gained pace for a move above the main hurdle at $113,500. It opened the doors for a move above $115,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Finally, the price spiked above $116,000 and is currently consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $106,718 swing low to the $116,309 high. Besides, there is a bullish trend line forming with support at $113,900 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading above $114,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $115,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $115,500 level. The next resistance could be $115,750. A close above the $115,750 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $116,300 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $117,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $118,000. Another Pullback In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $115,500 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Immediate support is near the $114,000 level. The first major support is near the $113,500 level or the trend line. The next support is now near the $111,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $110,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $108,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the short term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $114,000, followed by $113,500. Major Resistance Levels – $115,500 and $116,500.
Data shows cryptocurrency short investors have suffered large liquidations during the past day as Bitcoin and altcoins have made a recovery. Bitcoin, Ethereum Have Surged In The Last 24 Hours Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have witnessed a rally during the past day, breaking away from the slump the market had earlier fallen into. At the height of this surge, Bitcoin broke past $116,000, while Ethereum touched $4,250. Related Reading: XRP Flashes TD Buy Signal: Start Of Fresh Rally? The assets have since seen a small retracement. The chart below shows how BTC’s latest trajectory has looked. At its current price of $115,400, Bitcoin is up about 4% on the weekly timeframe. Similarly, Ethereum at $4,160 is in a profit of 3.4%. Most other digital assets have seen similarly positive returns, although there are some outliers like Tron, which is down more than 7%. The market-wide recovery during the past day has meant that a large amount of short liquidations have piled up on the derivatives exchanges. Crypto Market Liquidations Have Totaled At $467 Million According to data from CoinGlass, about $467 million in cryptocurrency-related derivatives contracts have been liquidated over the last 24 hours. A contract is said to be “liquidated” when its platform forcibly shuts it down after it accumulates losses of a certain degree (as defined by the exchange). Given that coins across the board have rebounded, the contracts crossing this threshold would mostly be the short ones. And indeed, the data would confirm so. As is visible above, liquidations related to bearish cryptocurrency bets have reached $358 million in this window, representing 76.6% of the total flush in the sector. Bitcoin led the liquidations with $177 million in contracts involved, while Ethereum contributed the second most with $130 million in contracts. Out of the rest, Solana witnessed the largest flush at $34 million. In some other news, Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have observed a notable amount of inflows over the past month, as CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has pointed out in an X post. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Drop To $97,500 If This Key On-Chain Level Fails, Glassnode Warns Spot ETFs refer to investment vehicles that allow investors to gain exposure to an asset without having to directly own it. The US SEC approved BTC spot ETFs in January of 2024. Here is the chart shared by the analyst that shows how the 30-day netflow for these vehicles has fluctuated since: As displayed in the above graph, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen inflows of $4.7 billion during the past month. Ethereum spot ETFs, which gained approval in mid-2024, have also enjoyed inflows in this period, although their value of $983 million is significantly less than BTC’s. Featured image from Dall-E, CoinGlass.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) is showing renewed strength, reclaiming the $115,000 level after weeks of volatility and uncertainty. Bulls are attempting to build momentum for a potential impulse move higher, aiming to confirm a sustained bullish structure after the recent consolidation phase. Related Reading: Ethereum OG Drives $500M Liquidity Flow Into ConcreteXYZ & Stable Vaults – Details On-chain data continues to reveal a clear and repeating pattern tied to investor behavior and market cycles. Historically, when the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit climbs above 95%, the market tends to enter an overheated phase, often leading to sharp corrections. These pullbacks serve as natural cooling periods, resetting sentiment and liquidity before the next major leg up. Interestingly, each correction cycle has shown consistent bottoming zones around the 75% threshold, where long-term holders reaccumulate and market confidence begins to rebuild. More specifically, data highlights profit supply lows of 73% in September 2024, 76% in April 2024, and a recent rebound from 81%, signaling a potential mid-cycle recovery phase. Bitcoin Supply in Profit Rises to 83.6% — Momentum Rebuilds Ahead of Key Threshold According to top analyst Darkfost, the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit has started to climb again, currently standing at 83.6%. This steady rise indicates that a growing share of Bitcoin holders are once again sitting on unrealized gains — a trend that often reflects improving sentiment and renewed market confidence. Darkfost notes that this level can be interpreted as encouraging, suggesting that investors are willing to hold their BTC instead of realizing profits, anticipating further upside in the near term. Historically, such behavior has been characteristic of mid-cycle recovery phases, when fear starts to fade and accumulation resumes across both retail and institutional segments. This stage of the cycle is considered healthy for rebuilding momentum, as it allows the market to stabilize after large corrections. Holders who previously capitulated often reenter at this stage, while long-term participants strengthen their positions, creating a more resilient market structure. However, Darkfost cautions that once the supply in profit surpasses 95%, it typically signals overheated market conditions — a point where euphoria tends to replace rational conviction. In such phases, Bitcoin historically faces increased volatility and sharp corrections as overleveraged traders and short-term speculators take profits. Related Reading: Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase Signals Accumulation Before Next Growth Wave BTC Retests $115K Resistance: Bulls Regain Momentum Bitcoin (BTC) is showing renewed bullish momentum, trading around $115,443 and successfully reclaiming key short-term support levels after weeks of consolidation. The daily chart highlights a strong recovery structure, with BTC breaking above both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, signaling a shift in short-term market sentiment. The next critical test lies at $117,500, a historical resistance zone that previously rejected multiple attempts in September and early October. A clear breakout and daily close above this level would likely confirm an impulse continuation toward $120K–$125K, opening the door for a more sustained uptrend. Related Reading: Chris Larsen Cashes Out: $764M In XRP Profits Since 2018 Momentum indicators suggest strengthening buying pressure, while the recent bounce from the 200-day moving average near $107K underscores the market’s resilience. This level acted as a springboard for the current rally, aligning with the broader pattern of accumulation seen on-chain, where investor profitability is rising steadily. However, BTC remains within a range-bound structure, and rejection at $117.5K could trigger short-term consolidation back toward $111K–$112K. Overall, Bitcoin’s technical outlook appears constructive — if the bulls can sustain above $115K and confirm strength above $117.5K, the market could transition into a new bullish leg, supported by improving investor sentiment and on-chain health. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
The Bitcoin price is positioning for a potentially explosive move that could take it well beyond its previous all-time highs. Analysts are closely watching a critical resistance level near $116,000, which may serve as the final hurdle before BTC catapults into uncharted territory above $126,000. Analyst Predicts New Bitcoin Price All-Time High Crypto analyst Donny Dicey revealed in an X social media post this week that the $116,000 price level is the decisive zone Bitcoin must breach to confirm a breakout toward a new all-time high. His technical analysis suggests that once BTC achieves a clean break above this resistance area, momentum could swiftly carry it above $126,000. Related Reading: Here’s How High The Bitcoin Price Would Be If It Catches Up With The Stock Market Notably, Bitcoin set a new ATH on October 6, 2025, after breaking through its previous record above $124,000 and climbing past $126,000. Since achieving this level, the price of BTC has fallen dramatically to $115,000. Dicey’s accompanying chart shows the market steadily recovering after testing support near $108,000, marked as a “market structure break” region, with bullish price action consolidating above $109,000. The analyst has emphasized that each day Bitcoin maintains a close above $109,000 strengthens the probability of a strong upward swing as the market heads into November. This period coincides with the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) next meeting, where investors are anticipating dovish signals such as rate cuts or the formal end of Quantitative Tightening (QT). Dicey also notes that bullish S&P 500 earnings, easing global trade tensions from a potential agreement between US President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping, and improving ISM manufacturing data point to a macro environment supportive of risk assets. A community member commented that whales may have underestimated how much BTC’s demand tends to persist during these conditions. Dicey responded that the same whales might become “exit liquidity” as Bitcoin accelerates higher, possibly missing out on the strongest phase of this cycle. Consolidation Above January Highs Signal Unbreakable Strength In a follow-up analysis, Dicey highlighted Bitcoin’s remarkable stability above its January highs, describing its price structure as “unbreakable” amid global macroeconomic uncertainty. He pointed to several converging factors that reinforce BTC’s resilience, including ongoing fiscal and monetary expansion, a weakening US dollar, and renewed confidence in the global business cycle. Related Reading: Bitcoin And Astrology: Moon Cycles Predict When The BTC Price Will Touch $138,000 The analyst also emphasized that geopolitical tensions tied to US-China relations appear to be subsiding. At the same time, ETF inflows and exponential growth in the Artificial Intelligence (AI) sector contribute to acting as tailwinds for digital assets. He disclosed that despite strong underlying fundamentals, skepticism remains widespread in the market. According to him, many still believe in the traditional four-year cycle narrative, while retail enthusiasm has not fully returned. Furthermore, the Russell 2000 index has yet to breakout, and rotation from traditional assets, such as the S&P 500 and gold, into Bitcoin remains limited. With these developments subduing broader market participation, Dicey suggests it creates the perfect setup for a powerful rally in BTC once sentiment shifts decisively. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Over the years, a number of indicators have emerged that have often helped to pinpoint the Bitcoin bull market peak. These indicators have been triggered in previous cycles, and their triggers have often been a signal that it was time to get out of the market, as a new bear market is underway. However, this time around, even with the Bitcoin price hitting multiple new all-time highs, none of these cycle peak indicators have been triggered, suggesting that the market top has yet to be reached. 0 Out Of 30 Bull Market Peak Indicators Triggered The Bull Market Peak Indicator tracker on the Coinglass website follows a total of 30 indicators that follow 30 indicators that show the progress of the Bitcoin bull market toward reaching a top. Some major ones include the Bitcoin Bubble Index, the Puell Multiple, the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, and the Altcoin Season Index, among others. Related Reading: Trump To Install New Pro-Crypto CFTC Chair? Here’s What We Know So Far Usually, these indicators are tracked on a scale of 0-100%, with 0% meaning that it is far from being triggered and 100% showing that an indicator has been triggered. If only a few of these get to the 100% mark and are triggered, it usually doesn’t mean that the Bitcoin peak has been reached. However, even now, not one of these indicators has been triggered. Most continue to remain quite low, while the likes of the Bitcoin dominance are high, but still have not been triggered. For there to be a definite progress toward the Bitcoin market peak, at least half of these would have to be triggered. What This Means For Investors Since none of the bull market peak indicators have been triggered, it means that the Bitcoin price might actually be far away from its all-time high. With the score still being 0 out of 30, it points to this being a time to hold, despite the declines that the market has suffered recently. Related Reading: Here’s How High The Bitcoin Price Would Be If It Catches Up With The Stock Market According to a previous report from Bitcoinist, this was the case a few months ago, and now two months later, the tracker remains the same. Thus, it could be that $126,000 is not the all-time high for Bitcoin, and that the market could end up getting an altcoin season after all. In the case that more than half of the bull market peak indicators do get triggered, then it means that the top of the market is getting close. Once it gets to 30/30, then it signals the start of the next bear market, and this is when selling is at its highest in the market, leading to rapid price declines across the board. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price is attempting to recover above $113,500. BTC could rise further if there is a clear move above the $115,500 resistance. Bitcoin started a fresh recovery wave above the $113,500 resistance level. The price is trading above $114,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $113,350 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it trades above the $115,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Starts Fresh Increase Bitcoin price declined again below the $108,000 level. BTC tested the $106,720 zone and recently started a fresh increase. There was a move above the $112,000 resistance level. The bulls were able to pump the price above $113,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Finally, the price spiked above $115,000 and is currently consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the $106,718 swing low to the $115,400 high. Besides, there is a bullish trend line forming with support at $113,350 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading above $114,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $115,250 level. The first key resistance is near the $115,500 level. The next resistance could be $116,200. A close above the $116,200 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $117,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $118,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $118,800. Another Pullback In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $115,500 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Immediate support is near the $114,000 level. The first major support is near the $113,500 level or the trend line. The next support is now near the $111,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $110,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $108,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the short term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $114,000, followed by $113,500. Major Resistance Levels – $115,500 and $116,500.
Bitcoin has performed strongly below expectations in October, with total monthly gains now estimated at around 1.54%. Following a bullish start, which established a new all-time high at $126,000, the premier cryptocurrency experienced a heavy correction mid-month, resulting in present price levels around $111,400. Amid these developments, crypto analyst Amr Taha has noted a recent shift on the Binance network, with potentially bullish implications for market participants. Related Reading: BTC Trapped In Tight Range: Liquidity Heatmap Shows Key Price Points At $115K, 106K Exchange Reserves Near Critical Low In a recent QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, Amr Taha shares insights into Bitcoin’s possible near-term trajectory, using data from the Bitcoin Exchange Reserve on Binance. As the name implies, this metric is an on-chain indicator that tracks the total amount of Bitcoin held in exchange wallets over time. The exchange reserve is an important measure of investors’ sentiment, as a high figure suggests preparation to sell and a growing lack of conviction among investors. However, when investors withdraw large amounts of their holdings from exchanges, especially within a short period, it indicates confidence in the asset’s prospects for price appreciation. Taha points out that the Bitcoin exchange reserves on Binance have seen a significant decline, with the current reading approaching 610,000 BTC, a level last reached in July, and also one of the lowest levels seen last year. While Bitcoin’s exchange reserves have steadily declined throughout 2025, the analyst remarks that the most recent decline looks “extremely aggressive,” implicitly suggesting the possibility of an imminent radical change. One possible effect of this drastic drop in exchange reserve is a supply shock, i.e., a sudden drop in the available supply of an asset. This abrupt shrinkage in selling supply also increases the market’s fragility to the upside, with increasing demand serving as fuel to bolster major upswings. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Macro Target Remains Above $2, And The Market Crash Hasn’t Changed It Factors Behind Bitcoin’s Falling Exchange Reserve Interestingly, Taha explains that as Bitcoin’s price swings around the $111,500 level, it reflects an underlying amount of demand, thus reinforcing earlier conjectures on growing long-term holders (LTH) confidence. As a result, Bitcoin could soon see an influx of momentum to push its price to the upside. Aside from growing institutional and whale accumulation standing as the primary driver of declining reserves, the analyst also points out the immense demand from the spot ETFs as another factor in play. A proportion of BTC typically gets pulled into these funds, thereby competing with the supply of Bitcoin available in the market. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is worth approximately $111,613, reflecting no significant movement in the past day. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview
CryptoWzrd, in his latest daily technical outlook, noted that Bitcoin managed to close in the green, but the candle remains indecisive, signaling that a clear reversal is yet to form. He added that more healthy bullish candles are needed to confirm a shift in momentum. For now, his attention is on the lower timeframes, where he plans to look for the next long opportunity once the current position is secured. Indecisive Daily Close Reflects Market Uncertainty After CPI Data Crypto analyst CryptoWzrd began his analysis by noting the ambiguity in recent price action, stating that the daily Bitcoin candle closed indecisively, although it was green. The primary focus of the past week was the traditional weekly candle close following the release of the US CPI data. Meanwhile, the weekly candle also closed without a clear direction, leaving the overall market structure ambiguous. Related Reading: Analyst Says 55% Chance Bitcoin Bull Run Isn’t Over Yet – Here’s Why The analyst defined a clear condition for the rally to continue. BTC’s ability to push higher is entirely dependent upon holding above the $110,500 resistance level. Maintaining this key floor should generate enough positive momentum to boost the market further upside, targeting the major resistance at $120,000 and potentially higher if conviction remains strong. However, if the price fails to hold $110,500, the market is at risk of declining further. In this scenario, the analyst targets the key technical support level located at $100,000 as the likely floor for the ensuing correction. Regardless of whether Bitcoin executes a bullish or bearish move, the analyst issued a warning regarding the broader market. During the weekend, most altcoins will not forge their own paths but will instead simply mirror the outcome of Bitcoin’s price action. The health of the altcoin market is directly linked to Bitcoin Dominance (BTCD), which the analyst observes as neutral on the daily chart. For altcoins to break free of Bitcoin’s gravitational pull and remain positive, the market requires more structural weakness in BTC.D. On Choppy Price Action & Ongoing Uncertainty CryptoWzrd concluded the analysis by noting that the intraday chart activity had been “somewhat choppy” throughout the day, suggesting a lack of clear directional momentum in the short term. Despite this recent consolidation, the underlying expectation remains bullish. Related Reading: Standard Chartered Predicts Bitcoin Drop Below $100K Even as Global M2 Growth Turns Bullish Looking ahead, the analyst predicts a further upside move towards the $115,300 resistance in the near future. At this stage, the market has performed its necessary moves, and the next step is simply to wait for the market to play out and confirm the push toward the pivotal $120,000 resistance target. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
The US stock market has just achieved a historic milestone, closing at its highest weekly levels ever recorded. The S&P 500 finished the week at 6,791.68 while the US 100 Index reached 25,358.15, both setting new all-time highs. Easing inflation data, strong corporate earnings, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts have all combined to keep investor sentiment bullish. Amid this record-setting environment, crypto analyst Ash Crypto posted an observation on X that asks the question of how high Bitcoin would trade when it finally catches up to the US stock market. US Stock Market’s Record-Breaking Momentum The S&P 500’s record-breaking climb represents a continuation of the stock market’s steady ascent through the second half of the year, which has been boosted by the Fed rate cut in September, expectations of further rate cuts, and confidence in corporate performance. Related Reading: Analyst Says Understanding This Bitcoin Structure Is Like Having A Superpower The tech-heavy US 100 Index led the charge, climbing past 25,000 for the first time ever this week as large-cap technology stocks posted strong quarterly results. This trend means that the long-running bull trend in traditional markets is intact. However, what is really compelling is the contrast between Wall Street’s all-time highs and Bitcoin’s relative stagnation. After starting October in a breakout move to new all-time highs above $126,000, the leading cryptocurrency went on a flash crash that took many traders by surprise. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is consolidating around $111,000 despite other asset classes showing strength. Ash Crypto’s post argues that Bitcoin’s price is being artificially held back compared to how stocks have responded to the same macro backdrop. If Bitcoin had followed the percentage gains of the S&P 500 or US 100 Index, it could already be trading between $140,000 and $150,000. When Bitcoin Finally Catches Up The first surge of liquidity always appears in the stock market whenever the Fed begins to slow quantitative tightening (QT) or hints at loosening conditions. This is because the stock market is where the deepest capital pools and institutional participation exist. Equities react first because that’s where the credit channels are most established. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Profit Sees Sharp Decline With Market Crash – Here Are The Numbers Bitcoin is still positioned outside the traditional financial system, and hence, tends to lag this initial move. But once the excess liquidity starts spilling into other assets, Bitcoin’s price has always increased at a much faster pace than stocks. According to Ash Crypto, Bitcoin will catch up soon and hit at least $130,000. Notably, Bitcoin’s on-chain data is already showing signs of the impending surge. For instance, recent figures show that available sell-side liquidity (the total amount of Bitcoin sitting on exchanges ready to be sold) has dropped to just 3.12 million BTC, its lowest point in seven years. Furthermore, data shows that long-term investors have bought 373,700 BTC in the past 30 days. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $111,600. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin price struggled to establish a stable direction in the past week, as intense levels of volatility continue to rock the market. Following two weeks of market correction, the premier cryptocurrency attempted a price rebound, reaching around $112,000 before retracing to $107,000 price zone. Presently, Bitcoin trades in the $111,000 price range after some steady gains in the past 48 hours. Interestingly, a popular analyst with the X username DaanCrypto has identified an insightful trend amidst this market uncertainty. Related Reading: Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase Signals Accumulation Before Next Growth Wave Sideways Bitcoin Market Sets Stage For Explosive Move As Liquidity Builds In a post on Friday, DaanCrypto shared an important on-chain development of the Bitcoin market following the highly volatile price moves in October 2025. Despite the consistent price swings, the analyst explains that BTC has remained locked in a local price range over the past two weeks, with its present price hovering above the midpoint of this structure. This sideways action has been driven by buyers and sellers repeatedly foiling each other’s attempts to break out, thereby preventing the asset from establishing a decisive breakout pattern. Amid the continuous consolidation, untriggered liquidation levels are accumulating just above and below the local price range. This pattern is typical of Bitcoin’s pre-breakout phases. DaanCrypto explains that the longer the price consolidates within a tight corridor, the more liquidity pools build up outside it. Notably, when price eventually sweeps these clusters, it often triggers a cascade of liquidations and stop orders, which fuel the next large price move. Using data from Coinglass, DaanCrypto has identified $106,000 as a level with the heaviest concentration of long liquidations. Therefore, this price point functions as a critical support zone, and a downward wick below which could trigger selling forces pushing Bitcoin to deeper levels. Meanwhile, the $115,000 region holds a thick short-side liquidity, meaning a push above this threshold could fuel a rapid short squeeze and propel BTC to higher levels, perhaps beyond its current all-time high at $126,210. Related Reading: Why The Dogecoin 3.49% Annual Inflation Is Actually Not A Bug Bitcoin Still On For A Comeback? In contrast to popular sentiments of an “Uptober” and blooming Q4, Bitcoin has failed to achieve a sustainable price growth in October. A report from the Bitcoin Archive states that the crypto asset’s return in Q4 2025 is now estimated at -2.84%. This figure shows an extreme underperformance as Bitcoin’s average Q4 is valued at 74.77%. However, with over 60 days remaining until the end of 2025, there is still ample time for the premier cryptocurrency to pull off a market recovery. After the CPI data met expectations, the chances of an interest rate cut have increased, and an eventual announcement by the Federal Reserve could perhaps trigger Bitcoin’s rebound, among other factors. At press time, Bitcoin continues to trade at $111,424, reflecting a 3.91% gain in the past seven days. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview
The Bitcoin price action has been somewhat impressive in 2025, as the flagship cryptocurrency ascended from around $93,300 in early January to its current all-time-high price of $126,000 this month. While the digital asset saw a couple of resets along the way, it continued to put in new highs, reflecting the magnitude of confidence held by its long-term investors. However, the recent correction seen this October seems to be shaking that confidence, raising questions about the sustainability of Bitcoin’s bull cycle, and if the long-feared bear market is imminent. However, recent on-chain data points to an interestingly brighter outlook than what is currently being experienced by market participants. Some Relevant BTC On-Chain Levels In an October 24 post on the X platform, pseudonymous on-chain analyst Arch Physicist highlighted what could be encouraging news for Bitcoin market participants. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Prediction: Analyst Forecasts What Will Happen In The Last Quarter Of The Year The crypto pundit’s analysis was based on the Value Coin-Days Destroyed (VCDD) to Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric, which measures the amount of coins that are moved on the blockchain in relation to the potential profits based on their movements. Essentially, this metric is used to locate price zones that can serve as support or resistance. Arch Physicist highlighted four important readings from the metric, thereafter explaining on the underlying functions of each of them. The analyst noted: ‘Gamma + Epsilon’ is used to determine structural highs formed due to Long-Term Holder (LTH) profit-taking, with its current value being around $147,937; ‘Delta + Epsilon’ represents support formed by Short-Term Holder (STH) entry opportunities, currently valued at approximately $92,902. Epsilon, on its part, is used to represent potential price floors. LTH Support Holds As Bitcoin Puts In Highs Arch Physicist further explained that the metric’s functions are in tandem with Bitcoin’s historical price action. “Bitcoin’s price has broken above the structural high (Gamma + Epsilon) and reached ATHs near Beta during bull runs. It has also historically made ATLs very close to Epsilon,” the analyst said. Interestingly, the Bitcoin price in this cycle has consistently traded within the support zones established by its LTHs, and the ones by its STHs. However, price seems to be heading towards the lower support zone, which, if breached, could signal the beginning of a bear market. On the other hand, the sustained integrity of the upper support could also be indicating that the bull run has not even started. As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at approximately $11,890, with no significant movement in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Bitcoin And Astrology: Moon Cycles Predict When The BTC Price Will Touch $138,000 Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin (BTC) liquidity is drying up fast, as the metric recently hit a seven-year low, reaching around 3.12 million BTC, the lowest level since 2018. This occurred as BTC continued to trade below the 99-day Moving Average (MA), located around $112,086. Bitcoin Liquidity Dries Up Amid High Demand According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, Bitcoin’s sell-side liquidity is drying up at a rapid pace, recently hitting a seven-year low at 3.12 million BTC. Related Reading: Bitcoin Cycle Score Turns Negative With Trend Below $106,780 – When Will The Correction End? As BTC’s supply tumbles sharply, the cryptocurrency is trading in the low $110,000 range, indicating a delicate balance between falling active circulating supply and growing institutional demand. Latest on-chain data shows that demand for BTC from long-term holders’ addresses has been steadily rising. Over the past 30 days, long-term investors have accumulated 373,700 BTC. Long-term investors accumulating BTC during the latest dip shows that there is sufficient market demand for the flagship cryptocurrency despite a volatile crypto market. Arab Chain remarked that the market is currently in a “quiet accumulation” phase ahead of a potential breakout. The CryptoQuant analyst emphasized that the Liquidity Inventory Ratio (LIR) has crashed to around 8.3 months, suggesting that current market liquidity covers less than nine months’ worth of demand – confirming the rapid depletion in BTC’s sellable supply. For the uninitiated, the LIR measures the balance between available liquidity and active trading demand in the market, showing whether market makers are providing sufficient depth relative to recent trade volume. A high LIR suggests ample liquidity and stable price movement, while a low LIR indicates thinner order books and higher vulnerability to volatility or slippage. The medium-term outlook for BTC looks bullish, due to a combination of declining liquidity and growing demand from institutional and long-term investors. Arab Chain added: If this trend continues through the end of the fourth quarter, Bitcoin’s price could surpass $115,000, especially if accompanied by rising buying flows from US investment funds and ETFs, supporting the continuation of the current bullish trend. BTC Top Not In Yet While some analysts predict that BTC may have already peaked this market cycle, others are confident that the top cryptocurrency is yet to hit its cycle high. Recent on-chain data indicates that BTC NVT Golden Cross is yet to enter the territory that marked previous cycle tops. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Next Bull Phase Could Be Near As BTC-Stablecoin Ratio Plummets Similarly, fellow CryptoQuant analyst PelinayPA predicted that there is a 55% chance that Bitcoin has not yet topped for the current market cycle. At press time, BTC trades at $111,295, up 2.1% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com
Bitcoin continues to trade around the $110,000 level, unable to reclaim higher ground after weeks of volatile price action. The market is still digesting the impact of the October 10 flash crash, which erased billions in open interest and sent shockwaves across altcoins. Despite a gradual recovery in on-chain metrics and institutional inflows, sentiment remains fragile, with traders hesitant to take new long positions. Related Reading: Bitcoin STH-SOPR Falls Below 1.0 for the First Time Since April – What This Means According to top analyst Axel Adler, the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase — a key indicator used to measure speculative pressure and market overheating — has now entered the Bottom or Accumulation zone. This signals a cooling-off period in speculation, suggesting that short-term trading activity is fading while long-term accumulation quietly resumes. However, Adler warns that this phase requires stability to play out effectively. For Bitcoin to initiate a sustainable rally, volatility must continue to decrease, and no major macro shocks — such as a surge in gold or US bond demand — should disrupt the current equilibrium. The coming weeks may define whether BTC consolidates or slips into renewed risk-off territory. Bitcoin Accumulation Signals Strength, But Stability Is Key Axel Adler explains that when the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase drops into the Bottom or Accumulation zone, it often represents a pivotal moment within a broader bull market. Historically, such readings coincide with periods where speculative pressure fades, leverage resets, and market participants begin quietly accumulating positions ahead of the next growth phase. These zones tend to appear after major corrections, when weak hands exit and the market regains structural balance — a necessary condition for sustained recovery. This phase reflects a shift from emotional trading to strategic accumulation. During these stages, on-chain activity typically shows increased wallet balances among long-term holders, while short-term traders reduce exposure. However, for this accumulation to translate into a meaningful rally, one critical condition must be met: volatility must decline. High volatility implies uncertainty and risk aversion, discouraging new capital inflows. A gradual cooling of volatility creates the stability needed for market confidence to rebuild. The analyst emphasizes that Bitcoin’s current setup requires at least a short stretch — roughly a week — without major negative global catalysts. External shocks such as surging bond yields, geopolitical tension, or renewed macro risk-off sentiment could easily disrupt the fragile recovery process. In essence, the market appears to be in a delicate balance: the speculative cycle has cooled enough to allow accumulation, but stability remains the missing piece for momentum to return. If volatility continues to decline and macro conditions hold steady, this accumulation phase could serve as the foundation for Bitcoin’s next major rally, mirroring previous transition points seen in past bull cycles. Related Reading: Chris Larsen Cashes Out: $764M In XRP Profits Since 2018 Price Action Details: Testing Key Level Bitcoin is currently trading near $110,936, struggling to gain momentum after several failed attempts to reclaim higher levels. The 4-hour chart shows a period of consolidation following the sharp recovery from the October 10 crash, with BTC moving in a tight range between $108,000 and $112,000. This structure reflects indecision in the market as buyers and sellers battle for short-term control. The 50 EMA (blue) is attempting to cross above the short-term range, signaling some recovery in short-term momentum. However, Bitcoin remains below both the 100 EMA (green) and the 200 EMA (red), indicating that the broader trend is still under bearish pressure. The $111,000–$112,000 zone is acting as immediate resistance, while $108,000 serves as critical short-term support. Related Reading: Bitcoin Trapped On Binance: The Battle Between $107K and $119K Heats Up If Bitcoin manages to break above the $112,000 resistance with volume confirmation, it could trigger a push toward the $117,500 level — the key horizontal resistance aligned with previous liquidity clusters. Conversely, rejection at this level may lead to another pullback toward $106,000 or lower, especially if volatility increases. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
There have been different ways that market analysts have tried to predict the direction that the Bitcoin price could be headed next. Many have turned to technical analysis, reading chart formations and patterns in a bid to pinpoint the next move. Others turn to market sentiment, using social commentary in a bid to determine what might happen next. However, one lesser-known route some analysts have taken is astrology, which is a study of how the movement of celestial bodies affects human behaviour, and ultimately, the Bitcoin and crypto market. Using The Moon Cycles To Predict Bitcoin Movements Crypto analyst Draz is one of the few who use astrology to actually analyze the market and what could happen in relation to the position of the moon. In an X post, the analyst clearly outlined how the moon cycles have been affecting the Bitcoin price, and thus, how the upcoming cycles could play out for the price. Related Reading: XRP Price Teleport To $6: What Happens When The Euphoric Phase Begin Draz explained that the dark phase of the moon, which had occurred back on October 13, had actually pointed to choppy price action for Bitcoin. This comes days after the October 10 liquidation event that saw over $19 billion in losses in a single day. Nevertheless, this choppy price action is expected to still be slightly bullish as it continues to play out. After the Bitcoin price bounced from its $102,000 liquidation lows, Draz also explains that there was an energy drain, coinciding with the last quarter moon. This also follows the previously established trend of the Bitcoin price falling during dark moon periods, with four out of the last five dark moon periods leading to a decline in price. However, there is also a silver lining with this with the advent of the new moon that began on October 21. The new moon has sometimes ushered in price reversals, leading to an uptick in price, but nothing substantial yet. Rather, all eyes now are on October 29, when the real move could begin. Related Reading: Altcoin Season: Here’s What Happens If The Bitcoin Price Sees A Parabolic Move To $200,000 This is because October 29 is when the next First Quarter moon is supposed to appear. This is the precursor to the next bright moon, and these have historically been bullish for price. This will lead into the month of November, where the bulls could really take over. Crypto analyst Draz believes that the month of November could lead to fireworks for the Bitcoin price. Looking at the shared chart, the analyst shows a possible move up to the $138,000 territory, leading into the Last Quarter Moon on November 11. If this holds, then the Bitcoin price could be less than a week away from reversing into another bull rally. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
The Bitcoin price has recently experienced a significant uptick in volatility, positively impacting its performance as it recovered to $110,000 after opening the week at $107,000. Despite this, Bitcoin’s struggle to maintain momentum near all-time high levels, combined with increasing selling pressure over the past month, has led some to speculate that the current bull run may have peaked. Analysts at The Bull Theory, on the other hand, have identified key indicators suggesting a shift in Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle, with potential for the ongoing bullish trend to extend into 2026. Anticipating Bitcoin Price Peak In Q2 2026 In a post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), the analysts explained that the typical Bitcoin price pattern has historically followed a straightforward rhythm: Halving, a 12–18 month rally, a blow-off top, and then a bear market. This pattern has held true for over a decade, but recent data indicates a significant change. Related Reading: HYPE Soars Beyond $40 Following Robinhood Listing: What’s Next For Hyperliquid’s Price? According to their analysis, Bitcoin is transitioning from a four-year cycle to a five-year cycle, with the next peak anticipated around the second quarter of 2026. This change is attributed to deeper structural shifts within the global economy. Governments are increasingly rolling over debt for longer periods, business cycles are extending, and liquidity waves are moving through the financial system at a slower pace. One key factor pointed by the analysts influencing this lag is that when central banks cease tightening their monetary policies, it typically takes 6 to 12 months for liquidity to reach the markets. The easing signals from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell in the third quarter of 2025, such as indications of ending balance-sheet contraction, are expected to impact markets well into early 2026, rather than having an immediate effect. Additionally, this delay is evident outside the US China’s money supply (M2) has surged to more than double that of the US and continues to expand. Historically, when China’s liquidity grows faster than that of the US, the Bitcoin price tends to rally a few months later, thereby extending the cycle into the first half of 2026. Japan’s new Prime Minister has also initiated an economic package aimed at combating inflation, which is expected to further contribute to global liquidity. On-Chain Data Shows Institutional Accumulation This current cycle is also characterized by institutional accumulation rather than retail hype. Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), corporate treasuries, and funds are gradually purchasing and holding Bitcoin for extended periods. Despite the current market conditions, retail interest in Bitcoin remains subdued, with Google Trends showing significantly lower search interest compared to 2021 levels. This indicates that the market is currently in a phase of quiet expansion rather than widespread mania, and retail euphoria—which typically signals the end of market cycles—has yet to materialize. Related Reading: $1.7 Trillion Firm T. Rowe Price Seeks Approval For Crypto ETF Linked To Multiple Tokens On-chain data supports this mid-cycle structure, revealing that institutions continue to accumulate Bitcoin, exchange reserves are near multi-year lows, and miner selling pressure has diminished since the Halving event. While the four-year Halving model remains relevant, the analysts assert that it is now being reshaped by macro liquidity dynamics, institutional pacing, and elongated global cycles. Consequently, the true peak of this bull run may align more closely with Q2 2026 rather than 2025. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
In one of the most striking moments of this cycle, gold has lost trillions in market capitalization, a drawdown larger than the entire value of Bitcoin itself. The metal that once symbolized stability is now showing cracks, while BTC, the asset branded as volatile, has remained remarkably resilient. What It Means For Bitcoin Next Market Cycle For decades, gold has been hailed as the ultimate safe-haven, and it has been rock-solid. However, a seasoned financial analyst, Tom Tucker, has revealed on X that Gold, the world’s oldest store of value, has lost $2.5 trillion in market value, which is more than the entire Bitcoin market capitalization. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supercycle? Jeff Park Says Gold’s $1 Trillion Gains Could Spark It Meanwhile, the crypto Fear and Greed Index is flashing extreme fear, signaling that sentiment across digital assets is near panic levels. Tom Tucker warns that traders should stay cautious, as BTC could follow the gold path. CryptoMichNL, the CIO and Founder of MNFund and MNCapital, has observed that gold has printed a harsh move, as it corrected by more than 8% in a single day. At the same time, Bitcoin moved up massively, but later gave back most of its gains. According to CryptoMichNL, this turbulence in gold is not a lasting trend. The volatility of gold is extremely high, which is a direct consequence of its status as a massive outlier with an incredible parabolic run over recent months. If gold has indeed topped out, that would open the door for capital rotation towards other assets. However, a soft Consumer Price Index (CPI) print on the horizon should trigger the potential rate cuts and the end of the US government shutdown. Otherwise, BTC’s consolidation might start running as risk-on appetite. Why Bitcoin Will Extend Above Its Recent Consolidation Historically, Gold has seen sharp drawdowns. Senior Analyst at CoinDesk and Advisor at Coinsilium Group and ForzaBitcoin, James Van Straten, explained that the last significant gold correction took place in August 2020. On August 6, gold hit an all-time high of $2,035, only to drop 5% on August 11, and then enter a 20% correction that lasted roughly seven months. Related Reading: Bitcoin Has Taken Gold’s Role In Today’s World, Eric Trump Says During that same period, Bitcoin was consolidating below $10,000 before surging to new highs that year, a move largely fueled by COVID-19-era stimulus, which acted as a powerful accelerant. Fast forward to today, James Van Straten believes that as BTC’s current phase is consolidating above $100,000, it may extend mid-cycle. This is due to strong parallels that gold has once again entered a significant correction, crypto liquidation events, the specter of a US government shutdown, looming rate cuts, and AI-driven capex expenditure, which continues to shape market sentiment and liquidity dynamics. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin price is attempting to recover above $108,500 and $108,800. BTC could rise further if there is a clear move above the $111,200 resistance. Bitcoin started a fresh recovery wave above the $108,800 resistance level. The price is trading above $109,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There was a break above a short-term channel with resistance at $108,700 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it trades above the $111,200 zone. Bitcoin Price Starts Fresh Increase Bitcoin price declined again below the $109,000 level. BTC tested the $106,720 zone and is currently attempting a fresh increase. There was a move above the $108,000 and $108,800 resistance levels. The price climbed above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $114,000 swing high to the $106,717 low. Besides, there was a break above a short-term channel with resistance at $108,700 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading above $109,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $111,200 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $114,000 swing high to the $106,717 low. The first key resistance is near the $111,500 level. The next resistance could be $112,500. A close above the $112,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $113,200 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $114,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $115,500. Another Drop In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $111,200 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Immediate support is near the $109,500 level. The first major support is near the $108,800 level. The next support is now near the $108,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $107,400 support in the near term. The main support sits at $106,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the short term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $109,500, followed by $108,800. Major Resistance Levels – $111,200 and $112,500.
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has explained how Bitcoin losing $108,500 could lead to a deeper correction, if the past pattern is to go by. Bitcoin Is At Risk Of Losing The 0.85 Quantile Level In its latest weekly report, analytics firm Glassnode has talked about how Bitcoin is currently looking from the perspective of the Supply Quantiles Cost Basis model. This model maps price levels according to the amount of BTC supply that would be lost if the cryptocurrency were to trade at its current price today. There are three supply “quantiles” involved in the indicator: 0.95, 0.85, and 0.75, corresponding to levels where 5%, 15%, and 25% of the supply would be held at a loss, respectively. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Ready For A Rebound? This Metric Says More Pain Needed First Below is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the different Bitcoin supply quantiles over the last few years. As is visible in the graph, Bitcoin surged above the 0.95 quantile during its price rally earlier in the month, as the supply in profit approached the 100% mark during the new all-time high (ATH). With the recent bearish action, however, the cryptocurrency has fallen below the line and is now trading around the 0.85 quantile situated at $108,600. Thus, it would appear that about 15% of the BTC supply is in the red at the moment. Bitcoin has already faced dips below this mark, so it’s possible that the coin may be at risk of losing the line. “Historically, failure to hold this threshold has signalled structural market weakness and often preceded deeper corrections toward the 0.75 quantile,” explained the analytics firm. BTC last saw such a decline to the 0.75 quantile during the consolidation period in mid-2024. Currently, this level is equivalent to $97,500. It now remains to be seen whether the asset can maintain above the 0.85 quantile, and if not, whether a retest of the 0.75 quantile will take place. The 0.95 quantile isn’t the only level that Bitcoin has lost during the recent drawdown; its price has also dropped below the average cost basis of the short-term holders (STHs) located at $113,100. STHs here refer to the BTC investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. This group is considered to represent the fragile side of the market, prone to making panic moves during times of volatility. With BTC dropping below the cost basis of the cohort, its members are now underwater. “Historically, this structure often precedes the onset of a mid-term bearish phase, as weaker hands begin to capitulate,” noted Glassnode. Related Reading: Bitcoin Cycle Top Still Not In, Suggests NVT Golden Cross In an X post, the analytics firm has shared a chart that puts into perspective the net unrealized loss held by the Bitcoin STHs right now. BTC Price Bitcoin hasn’t been able to sustain a recovery recently as its price is still trading around $109,100. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is showing signs of renewed weakness as short-term investors begin to fold under selling pressure. According to the latest data from CryptoQuant, the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) has fallen to 0.992, its lowest level since late April. This key on-chain metric tracks the average profit or loss realized by Bitcoin holders who have owned their coins for less than 155 days — a group often associated with speculative or reactive behavior. Related Reading: Kadena Shuts Down Operations – Team Confirms Immediate Cease Of All Activities When the STH-SOPR dips below 1.0, it indicates that these holders are selling their coins at a loss, signaling a wave of capitulation and rising fear among newer market participants. The current value implies an average loss of 0.8%, reflecting a notable shift in sentiment after weeks of volatile price action. Historically, such phases of short-term capitulation often mark moments of emotional exhaustion, where retail traders give up amid uncertainty. While this can reinforce short-term bearish pressure, it also tends to precede market stabilization — as weaker hands exit and long-term investors absorb supply. Bitcoin STH-SOPR Signals Short-Term Weakness and Long-Term Opportunity According to CryptoOnchain’s latest insights shared on CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) remains below the crucial 1.0 threshold, reinforcing a bearish short-term outlook. As long as both the STH-SOPR and its 14-day moving average stay under this key level, the indicator acts as a form of resistance — reflecting that short-term holders continue selling at a loss. In such conditions, every price rally risks being met with renewed selling pressure, as these investors look to exit positions at break-even or with minimal loss, creating a ceiling for upward momentum. However, this same behavior can also plant the seeds for a long-term bullish setup. Historically, extended periods of loss realization by short-term holders have coincided with the final stages of market corrections. This process — often described as a “cleansing” phase — shakes out weak hands and redistributes Bitcoin to long-term holders who are less sensitive to short-term volatility. When capitulation reaches its peak, it often signals the market is approaching “maximum pain”, a point that tends to precede strong recoveries. While Bitcoin’s current structure suggests ongoing weakness, this phase could also mark the foundation of the next uptrend. Traders should closely monitor the STH-SOPR for a decisive reclaim above 1.0, as that would confirm a shift from loss-driven selling to profit realization — signaling renewed market strength and the potential start of a new bullish phase. Related Reading: Bitcoin Trapped On Binance: The Battle Between $107K and $119K Heats Up Bears Defend Resistance, Bulls Struggle to Reclaim Momentum Bitcoin is currently trading around $109,400, showing a modest rebound but still facing strong resistance at higher levels. As seen in the 1-day chart, BTC remains trapped below both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, which are now converging near $112,000–$114,000 — a zone that has repeatedly acted as supply during recent recoveries. The 200-day moving average, positioned around $106,000, continues to provide short-term support. However, the repeated retests of this level suggest weakening buyer strength. The inability to sustain a close above $110,000 highlights persistent selling pressure, with traders preferring to de-risk amid broader market uncertainty. Related Reading: Hyperliquid Futures Indicator Signals Whales Are Going Long – Details If Bitcoin manages to reclaim $112,000, momentum could shift toward $117,500, the key horizontal resistance and previous range high. A decisive breakout above this level would invalidate the recent bearish structure and open the path toward $123,000. On the downside, failure to hold the $106,000–$107,000 support range could expose BTC to further downside risk, with potential targets near $102,000 or even $98,000 if selling accelerates. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
The Bitcoin supply in profit has seen a sharp decline amid the latest crypto market crash. This has raised concerns that BTC could suffer a further crash, as holders who are in the red may move to offload their coins. Bitcoin Supply In Profit Drops Amid Market Crash On-chain analytics platform Glassnode revealed in a report that the Bitcoin supply in profit has historically dropped to around 85%, with 15% of the supply sitting at a loss. This has occurred whenever the BTC price breaks down from a new all-time high (ATH) and trades around the short-term holders’ cost basis, as is happening now. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Supercycle Still In Play? Wave 3 Tells A Story Of A Surge Glassnode noted that this marks a pivotal phase for Bitcoin, as this is where the market tests the conviction of investors who had bought near recent highs. This pattern is said to be playing out for the third time in this current cycle. The on-chain analytics platform warned that if BTC fails to recover above the $113,100 range, a deeper contraction could send a larger share of the Bitcoin supply into loss. Glassnode further stated that this deeper contraction could amplify the stress among recent Bitcoin buyers, which could set the stage for a broader capitulation across the market. The platform also alluded to the Supply Quantile Cost Basis to explain why it is essential for BTC to reclaim the short-term holders’ cost basis above $113,000. Bitcoin is said to be struggling to hold above the 0.85 quantile at $108,600. Failure to hold this has historically indicated structural market weakness and often preceded deeper corrections toward the 0.75 quantile, which now aligns near $97,500. This puts BTC at risk of dropping below $100,000 for the first time since May. A Longer Consolidation Phase May Be Necessary Glassnode stated that from a macro perspective, the repeated demand exhaustion suggests that Bitcoin may require a longer consolidation phase to rebuild strength. This exhaustion is said to be clearer with the Long-Term Holder Spend Volume. These long-term holders have increased their spending with the 30D-SMA rising from the 10,000 BTC baseline to over 22,000 BTC daily since the market peak in July. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin About To See A Repeat Of 2020-2021? What Happened After The Last Flash Crash Glassnode noted that such persistent distribution indicates profit-taking from seasoned investors, which has contributed to the current Bitcoin weakness. Bitcoin OGs have continued to offload their coins at an unprecedented rate, putting significant selling pressure on BTC. Onchain Lens recently revealed that a particular whale moved 3,003 BTC to Binance, likely in a bid to sell, while also shorting BTC with a position worth $227 million. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $108,800, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
On-chain data shows the loss margin of Bitcoin traders is only halfway through the way to the boundary that signaled rebounds in the last two years. Bitcoin Traders Are About 5% Underwater At The Moment In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about how Bitcoin tends to rebound when the Profit/Loss Margin of the Bitcoin traders falls under -12%. The Profit/Loss Margin refers to an indicator that measures the net amount of profit or loss that the BTC investors are carrying right now. The metric works by going through the transaction history of each coin on the blockchain to see what price it was last moved at. If this previous price for any token was less than the current spot price, then it’s considered to be carrying a profit equal to the difference between the two prices. Similarly, tokens of the opposite type fall into the loss category. The Profit/Loss Margin calculates the net unrealized profit or loss (as a percentage) that investors as a whole are carrying. In the context of the current topic, the version of the metric that’s of interest specifically tracks this margin for the “traders,” investors who have been holding their coins since between 1 and 3 months ago. Related Reading: Bitcoin Cycle Top Still Not In, Suggests NVT Golden Cross Now, here is the chart shared by Martinez that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Profit/Loss Margin of the traders, as well as its 30-day simple moving average (SMA), over the last couple of years: As is visible in the above graph, the Profit/Loss Margin of the Bitcoin traders has witnessed a plunge into the negative territory recently as BTC’s price has gone through its bearish action. Currently, the 1 to 3 months old BTC buyers are sitting about 5% underwater. The analyst has pointed out that BTC has tended to find rebounds when these holders have been under a notable amount of pressure during the last two years. The cutoff for this distress threshold, however, lies at -12%, a level that the trader Profit/Loss Margin is still to breach under. Related Reading: Bitcoin Newbie Whales Now Sitting On $6.9 Billion In Losses, Most Since 2023 It now remains to be seen whether Bitcoin will be able to find a bottom in the near future, or if one will only happen after traders experience a similar degree of pain as the previous lows. In another X post, Martinez has highlighted that $119,750 could be a crucial mark for Bitcoin to reclaim, as it represents a key resistance level in the MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands, a pricing model for BTC based on standard deviations of the popular MVRV Ratio. “Failing to reclaim it could trigger a move down to $97,130 or even $74,500,” noted the analyst. BTC Price Bitcoin’s latest recovery was quite short-lived as its value is already back to $108,000. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price is attempting to recover above $107,500 and $108,000. BTC could rise further if there is a clear move above the $109,500 barrier. Bitcoin started a fresh recovery wave above the $108,000 resistance level. The price is trading below $109,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a short-term declining channel forming with resistance at $108,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it trades above the $109,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Takes Hit Bitcoin price declined again below the $109,500 level. BTC tested the $106,750 zone and is currently consolidating losses. A low was formed at $106,717 before the price recovered some losses. There was a move above the $107,500 and $108,000 levels. The price climbed above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $114,000 swing high to the $106,717 low. However, the bulls are now facing many hurdles. Bitcoin is now trading below $109,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $108,800 level. There is also a short-term declining channel forming with resistance at $108,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The first key resistance is near the $109,500 level. The next resistance could be $110,500 or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $114,000 swing high to the $106,717 low. A close above the $110,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $111,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $112,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $113,500. Another Drop In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $109,500 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Immediate support is near the $107,200 level. The first major support is near the $106,750 level. The next support is now near the $105,800 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $105,000 support in the near term. The main support sits at $103,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the short term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now near the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $108,000, followed by $106,750. Major Resistance Levels – $109,500 and $110,500.
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross has still not breached into the territory that marked the tops of previous cycles. 30-Day EMA Of Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross Is Still Below Overheated Zone As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross is yet to hit an extreme level in the current cycle. The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Ratio is an on-chain indicator that measures the ratio between BTC’s market cap and transaction volume. Related Reading: Bitcoin Newbie Whales Now Sitting On $6.9 Billion In Losses, Most Since 2023 When the value of this metric is high, it means the value of the network (as represented by the market cap) is high compared to its ability to transact coins (the volume). Such a trend can be a sign that the asset may be overvalued. On the other hand, the indicator having a low value can imply the cryptocurrency’s price could have room to grow as its market cap isn’t inflated against its transaction volume. In the context of the current discussion, a modified form of the NVT Ratio called the NVT Golden Cross is the indicator of interest. This metric is a Bollinger-band-like signaling indicator that compares the short-term trend of the NVT Ratio (10-day moving average) against its long-term trend (30-day MA) to determine whether the indicator is near a top or bottom. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 30-day exponential moving average (EMA) of the Bitcoin NVT Ratio over the past decade: As displayed in the above graph, the 30-day EMA Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross currently has a value of around zero, which suggests the market is in a neutral phase according to the NVT Ratio. In the chart, the quant has highlighted the zones where tops and bottoms have historically tended to occur. It would appear that a highly positive value generally signals some sort of top for BTC, while a negative one can lead to a bottom. Related Reading: Chainlink To $100? Analyst Says This Breakout Could Be The Trigger In the current cycle so far, the indicator hasn’t seen any spike into the red zone. Whether this means that this bull market is an exception, or that Bitcoin is yet to reach its top, only remains to be seen. While Bitcoin market conditions are neutral from the perspective of the NVT Golden Cross, CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index is painting a different picture. As the analytics firm’s community analyst has noted in an X post, this indicator, which combines the data of several key on-chain metrics, is flashing a bear signal for the asset. BTC Price Bitcoin surged toward $114,000 on Tuesday, but it would appear that the recovery was only short-lived as the coin is already back at $108,000. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade in the high $100,000 range following the October 9 crypto market crash, some bullish signs are starting to emerge. Notably, stablecoin reserves on leading crypto exchanges like Binance are entering all-time high (ATH) territory, hinting at a potential rally for BTC. Stablecoin Reserves Rise – Will Bitcoin Benefit? According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor PelinayPA, Binance stablecoin reserves are approaching ATH levels, indicating that investors are ready to deploy funds to accumulate BTC at current or lower levels. Related Reading: Bitcoin Enters ‘Disbelief Phase’ – Could Short Sellers Face The Next Squeeze? The CryptoQuant analyst highlighted the rapidly falling Bitcoin-Stablecoin Ratio (ESR). For the uninitiated, the ESR measures the proportion of Bitcoin reserves to stablecoin reserves on exchanges like Binance. The ratio also gives hints about the market’s potential buying power and selling pressure. Past data shows that whenever the ESR falls sharply during market volatility, BTC’s price tends to surge. Essentially, a declining ESR means that stablecoin reserves are growing in comparison to BTC reserves on exchanges. This shows an increase in available “dry powder” on exchanges, which can quickly be used to buy more BTC and initiate another bull rally. Conversely, when the ESR rises, it means that stablecoin reserves are falling while BTC supply on exchanges is increasing. This points toward an increase in short-term selling pressure as traders deposit BTC to exchanges to sell. Currently, the ESR has fallen to historically low levels, implying that Binance holds relatively large stablecoin reserves compared to BTC reserves. According to PelinayPA, such a setup can have two interpretations: In a positive scenario, the abundance of stablecoins suggests significant latent buying power. If market confidence returns, this could trigger a strong wave of buying pressure and mark the start of a new bullish phase. Meanwhile, the negative scenario assumes that this liquidity would remain inactive, reflecting investor hesitation and a market in standby mode after the recent bloodbath that resulted in liquidations worth $19 billion. Will The Gold Rotation Help BTC? Following the crypto market crash earlier this month, which sent BTC from an ATH of more than $126,000 all the way down to $102,000, several whales faced liquidations. Despite the crash, some analysts are confident that the BTC top is not in yet. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales Are Back: Three Indicators Suggest A Run Toward $130,000 One of the factors that can significantly benefit BTC in the near term is the capital rotation from gold to the digital asset. In a new report, Bitwise predicted that capital rotation from gold into BTC could propel it to $242,000. That said, veteran trader Peter Brandt recently forecasted that BTC could crash 50% from current price levels. At press time, BTC trades at $108,268, down 0.3% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com
Bitcoin is struggling to establish a clear direction as volatility tightens and traders face increasing uncertainty. After weeks of indecisive movement, short-term price action remains choppy, leaving both bulls and bears without conviction. According to new insights from CryptoQuant, a comprehensive analysis combining Price Action, Volume Profile, and Liquidation Heatmap data from Binance reveals that Bitcoin has been locked in a well-defined trading range for the past 120 days. Related Reading: Hyperliquid Futures Indicator Signals Whales Are Going Long – Details The report highlights that this range is centered between $107,500 and $119,300, with the Point of Control (POC) — the level where the most trading volume has occurred — sitting near $117,500. Despite several attempts to break higher, BTC has repeatedly failed to sustain momentum, falling back into this range each time. Analysts suggest this pattern reflects a market in balance, waiting for a catalyst to break decisively in either direction. Within these boundaries, Bitcoin traders are closely monitoring liquidity clusters and key volume zones to anticipate the next big move. Whether BTC reclaims higher ground or tests lower supports, the breakout from this 120-day range could define the next major phase of the cycle. Bitcoin Faces a Crucial Test at the Point of Control (POC) According to CryptoOnchain’s latest analysis on CryptoQuannt, Bitcoin’s recent breakout attempt above its 120-day trading range has failed to gain traction, forming what analysts call a classic “Look Above and Fail” pattern. The move initially triggered a short squeeze that liquidated many sellers on Binance, briefly pushing the price higher. However, the rally quickly lost strength due to insufficient follow-through buying, leading BTC to fall back into its established range — a sign of underlying market weakness. At present, Bitcoin is hovering just below the critical Point of Control (POC) near $117,500 — the price level where the largest trading volume has occurred. This level now acts as the key battleground for the next major move. In the bullish scenario, a confirmed breakout above the POC could turn this zone into support and pave the way for a retest of the Value Area High (VAH) around $119,300. Such a move could also trigger short liquidations, driving BTC toward the buy-side liquidity zone sitting above $120,000. In the bearish scenario, continued rejection from the POC would point toward renewed selling pressure, targeting the Value Area Low (VAL) near $107,500 — where significant stop-losses and long liquidations remain clustered. Related Reading: XRP Whales Flood Binance With Massive Deposits – Selling Pressure Mounts Bitcoin Bears Defend the $110K Zone Bitcoin is once again struggling to reclaim momentum after failing to break through resistance near $111,000. The chart shows that BTC remains trapped below key moving averages, with the 50-day SMA acting as a dynamic ceiling around $112,000 and the 100-day SMA near $114,000 reinforcing bearish pressure. Meanwhile, the 200-day SMA, currently positioned around $107,000, is providing short-term support — a critical line that bulls must defend to avoid deeper losses. The market structure indicates that BTC continues to trade within a defined range between approximately $107,000 and $117,500. Recent price action has been characterized by failed breakout attempts and sharp pullbacks, highlighting indecision and low conviction among both bulls and bears. Related Reading: The Bitcoin OG Is Back – Opens Massive Short After $30M USDC Deposit A sustained move above the $111,000–$112,000 zone could open the path for a test of $117,500, which has repeatedly acted as a major resistance level since August. However, a breakdown below $107,000 would likely accelerate selling pressure toward the $103,000 area — the flash-crash low from earlier this month. For now, Bitcoin remains in consolidation, with market participants awaiting a decisive breakout to confirm whether the next major move will be a bullish reversal or a continuation of the current downtrend. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows the recent bearish Bitcoin price action has put the network’s short-term holder whales into a significant unrealized loss. New Bitcoin Whales Have Dived Underwater In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has discussed about the latest trend in the profit-loss situation of the short-term holder Bitcoin whales. The “short-term holders” (STHs) broadly refer to the BTC investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. Related Reading: Chainlink To $100? Analyst Says This Breakout Could Be The Trigger The STH whales (or “new whales”) are the holders with 1,000+ BTC (equivalent to $110.8 million at the current exchange rate) who got into the market during the last five months. Now, here is the chart shared by the analytics firm that shows the trend in the net unrealized profit/loss held by the STH whales over the past year: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH whales have seen their profit-loss balance lean heavily into the underwater territory following the recent bearish wave in the cryptocurrency’s price. This means that the members of this cohort are now carrying a heavy amount of net loss. More specifically, the STH whales are holding about $6.95 billion in unrealized loss, which is the largest for the group since October 2023, about two years ago. This indicates significant pressure among big-money investors, especially considering that the STHs control a notable chunk of the whale Realized Cap. The Realized Cap is an indicator that basically measures the total amount of capital that Bitcoin investors have put into the cryptocurrency. The Realized Cap of the new whales, in particular, corresponds to the big-money capital that came into the network during the past 155 days. From the above chart, it’s apparent that the new whales today control around 45% of the total whale Realized Cap, which is a new record. Considering that the cohort as a whole is underwater, this capital is naturally being held at a net loss now. The recent growth in the Realized Cap of the STH whales has come as the long-term holders (LTHs), covering investors with a holding time greater than the STH upper limit of 155 days, have been participating in distribution. Related Reading: Ethereum Death Cross That Last Preceded A 60% Drop Just Returned As the chart shared by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn shows, 337,300 BTC has exited the wallets of the Bitcoin LTHs over the last 30 days. So far, new capital has been coming in to absorb this selloff from the HODLers, but with the STH whales now under pressure, demand for the cryptocurrency may be starting to weaken. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $111,000, down 1.7% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Following a significant rally, the valuation of gold has begun to decline. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be experiencing a slight capital rotation towards it, as evidenced by Tuesday’s price performance, which led to a recovery of the $112,000 mark. In this context, asset manager Bitwise has released a new report that outlines promising price prospects for the market’s leading cryptocurrency, despite the challenges it has faced over the past few weeks. How Gold’s Rise Fuels Bitcoin Opportunities Authored by Andre Dragosch, Max Shannon, and Aayush Tripathi from Bitwise Europe’s research and analysis department, the report highlights that crypto prices have been underperforming compared to traditional assets, largely due to a bearish market sentiment triggered by renewed weaknesses in US regional bank stocks. The report emphasizes the fluctuating relative performance of Bitcoin against gold, which tends to vary with changes in cross-asset risk appetite. A renewed risk-on environment could potentially reaffirm Bitcoin’s leadership in performance over gold. Related Reading: Bear Market Alert: Top Expert Claims Bitcoin Price Fate Hangs On $101,700 Support Level A key catalyst for Bitcoin’s recovery over the coming months could stem from this capital rotation. Gold has experienced a meteoric rise this year, driven by expectations of easier monetary policy and growing concerns regarding US fiscal debt. According to Bitwise, even a modest capital rotation of just 3% to 4% from gold to Bitcoin could significantly impact the cryptocurrency’s price, potentially doubling its value, as seen in the chart below. Interestingly, a 5% shift in investments from gold to Bitcoin could increase its price by over 126%, propelling it to $242,391. This is based on a baseline price of $107,240, which is Bitcoin’s price at the time of Bitwise’s publication. Why Is $118,000 Key For BTC’s Outlook? Historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin’s performance leadership may reassert itself during a risk-on phase. This potential shift is not merely speculative; the report points out that a similar trend occurred in 2020, when Bitcoin began its ascent to new all-time highs in October, coinciding with a stall in gold’s rally that began in July. The analysts believe this performance pattern could repeat itself, particularly if gold’s rally pauses. They highlight that sustaining gold’s rally typically requires a significantly larger capital influx compared to Bitcoin, which could create headwinds for gold’s continued performance. Related Reading: Solana Co-Founder Ventures Into Perpetual DEX Development: What You Should Know Lastly, on-chain analysis reveals a robust liquidity cluster between $93,000 and $118,000, forming a critical boundary between bull and bear market conditions. The report suggests that a decisive move above the upper end of this range at $118,000 could result in a new price rally. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows promising signs of strength as the RSI continues to climb, hinting at the potential for further upside. However, the battle isn’t over yet. With price hovering near the critical $107,000 support, bulls must defend this level to prevent deeper downside pressure. RSI And Price Alignment: A Textbook Case Of Momentum Confirmation In a recent market update, EGRAG CRYPTO questioned whether the bulls and bears are even analyzing the same chart, as the current macro weekly structure of Bitcoin shows no signs of bearishness. The broader setup remains firmly bullish, suggesting that the ongoing price movements are part of a healthy uptrend. Related Reading: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Eyes $114,000 Retest Amid Bounce, But Analyst Suggests Caution The analyst emphasized that when Bitcoin’s price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rise simultaneously on the weekly timeframe, it serves as a confirmation of momentum rather than a warning sign. This alignment often signals strong buying interest and market conviction, supporting the argument for continued bullish pressure in the near to mid-term. EGRAG CRYPTO further highlighted that the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ribbon remains supportive, reinforcing the trend’s strength. In the expert’s view, the current setup is a clear indication of macro confirmation, not mere market noise. Such alignment between indicators typically precedes significant continuation phases, showing that the trend remains well-structured and sustainable. However, the expert added a note of caution, stating that traders should only be wary if the RSI climbs into overbought territory above 70, which could suggest a temporary cooldown. For now, with RSI hovering around 50, Bitcoin still has plenty of room to run. This leaves the market with a strong technical foundation and considerable potential for further upside momentum. Bitcoin Faces Rejection At $111,000: Bulls Lose Grip On Momentum According to Crypto VIP Signal’s latest analysis, Bitcoin is currently facing challenges after failing to sustain its upward momentum above $111,000. The rejection from this point suggests that selling pressure remains strong, keeping bullish momentum temporarily in check. Related Reading: Bitcoin On-Chain Activity Slumps Below 365-Day Average – Is Momentum Losing Steam? Crypto VIP explained that Bitcoin is now retesting the $107,000 support zone, a critical area that could determine the next possible move. Holding this level is essential to prevent a deeper pullback, as it has served as a key foundation during previous consolidation phases. However, a decisive break below the $107,000 support would likely trigger additional selling pressure, potentially extending the ongoing correction. Monitoring this level closely now appears important, since a bounce from here could reignite bullish sentiment, while a breakdown might expose Bitcoin to further downside risks in the short term. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
While Bitcoin (BTC) has declined more than 13% from its fresh all-time high (ATH) of $126,199 recorded earlier this month on October 6, CryptoQuant contributor PelinayPA is confident that there is a 55% chance that the BTC top for this market cycle is not in yet. Bitcoin Top Not In Yet – More Upside Ahead? According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor PelinayPA, there is a 55% probability that the Bitcoin top for the ongoing market cycle is not in yet. The analyst highlighted BTC’s recent on-chain flows to support their claim. Related Reading: Bitcoin Cycle Score Turns Negative With Trend Below $106,780 – When Will The Correction End? In their analysis, PelinayPA noted that although BTC’s price has tumbled from more than $126,000 to around $109,000 in the second half of 2025, there has been a noticeable increase in 0-1 day BTC inflows to exchanges. A rise in 0-1 days BTC inflows to exchange typically has two implications – short-term traders are taking profits, and there is a temporary phase of repositioning of liquidity as traders transfer their holdings to exchanges, anticipating price volatility. The analyst added that BTC held for more than six months is largely inactive, indicating that long-term holders are likely not selling despite the recent market crash. This signals market confidence among long-term holders, minimizing the possibility of another major sell-off in the near term. PelinayPA remarked that such behavior typically occurs in the mid or maturing stages of a bull cycle, where any dip in price is seen as an opportunity to accumulate instead of a trend reversal. Currently, the Bitcoin market is in a natural consolidation phase within an ongoing uptrend. The analyst added: In the short term, Bitcoin could revisit the $102K region as short term traders continue to take profits. However, since this selling pressure originates mainly from newer holders, it is unlikely to disrupt the broader bullish structure. These dips may offer attractive entry opportunities. Concluding, Pelinay commented that the lack of selling activity among BTC holders in the 6-months to 10-year time-band range shows that there is a 55% probability that the bull market top has not yet formed. BTC Could Dip To $102,000 The CryptoQuant contributor noted that, although it is likely that the BTC bull market top is not in yet, it does not mean that the top cryptocurrency would not see further temporary decline. If selling persists, BTC could once again test the $102,000 support level. Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Feels “Too Efficient” As Arbitrage Opportunities Vanish – What It Means For Price? Similarly, crypto analyst Elliot Waves Academy remarked that BTC has likely finished the bullish leg of the ongoing market cycle. The analyst added that BTC is likely to consolidate around its current levels. That said, a fellow CryptoQuant contributor noted that BTC has entered the ‘disbelief phase,’ and may take the bears by surprise with a sharp surge in price. At press time, BTC trades at $108,472, down 2% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com
The concept of a price battleground in Bitcoin markets refers to a critical price range where the forces of buying and selling pressure are in a fierce and decisive contest. This is where the outcome is expected to determine BTC’s overall direction and confirm a continuation of a bull market or bear market correction. Why This Zone Will Define Bitcoin’s Next Expansion Phase In an X post, an institutional-grade reporter, Bitcoin Vector, has highlighted that BTC has entered its decisive battleground between $110,000 and $115,000, which could determine the trajectory of the entire cycle. In the past week, spot demand, which is the engine of sustained rallies, was notably weak and capped by the escalating US-China trade tensions. Related Reading: Bitcoin Enters ‘Disbelief Phase’ – Could Short Sellers Face The Next Squeeze? As those tensions eased, that spot demand showed signs of returning, allowing BTC to claw its way back above the critical $110,000 level. Despite recovery back into the battleground, momentum remains negative and flat. Without sustained inflow and spot demand, the bullish structure could fade fast, leaving BTC exposed to another pullback. However, if demand holds and momentum turns up, BTC advances deeper into the battleground. A failure to maintain this range and BTC may risk retreating again and raising the white flag. A full-time crypto trader, Sykodelic, has also offered a highly optimistic prediction that Bitcoin will be back to an All-Time High (ATH) by the end of the month. The market is still in uncertainty and fear, where BTC thrives for its next leg higher. This is the stage of the cycle where disbelief dominates. As a result, traders convince themselves the rally is over, and that’s when BTC starts to move again. By the time BTC approaches its previous highs, traders will finally believe again, which often happens when another long flush clears out late entrants. Technically, BTC price is moving back above the 4-hour 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). Each time, Bitcoin successfully retests this level as support, the price continues to expand higher. “I think the worst is behind us,” Sykodelic noted. The Supply Battle That Shapes The Next Cycle The current Bitcoin market is in a supply tug-of-war between two powerful forces. According to the ambassador of MGBX_EN, BitBull, long-term holders (LTHs) have been constantly offloading their coins, while institutions are aggressively absorbing the supply through Spot ETFs and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs). Related Reading: Bitcoin Profit-Taking Hits $2.25 Billion Following Market Crash — What Could This Mean? Meanwhile, the treasury holdings have quietly surpassed $120 billion, with BTC still dominating the stack. Spot ETFs alone have absorbed tens of thousands of coins this quarter, proving that institutional demand remains strong. However, LTHs are still selling faster than ETFs, and DATs can absorb. Historically, when this kind of accelerated LTH distribution occurs, BTC tends to lose short-term momentum. This is not a bearish setup, but it does imply that the upside remains temporarily capped until the selling pressure fades. Thus, institutions are buying the strength, not the bottoms. Ultimately, the next major breakout hinges on when long-term holders stop distributing and return to accumulation mode. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com