THE LATEST CRYPTO NEWS

The debate over whether the crypto market is in Bitcoin Season or on the verge of Altcoin Season has dragged on for many months, especially due to Ethereum’s price action in the past few days. LUCIE, Shiba Inu’s marketing lead, recently touched on the matter, sharing insights on what’s currently happening, what to expect for an altcoin season, and when to anticipate a breakout in the Altcoin Season Index. Altcoin Season Index Points To Bitcoin Dominance Many traders and analysts have been closely watching the Altcoin Season Index, with posts on the social media platform X and news reports increasing in anticipation of a market-wide move that could favor altcoins against Bitcoin. Although the current market still tilts toward Bitcoin, signs of change are starting to emerge, especially with Ethereum now approaching the $4,000 price level. Related Reading: No Altcoin Season If Bitcoin Dominance Reclaims This Level According to the Altcoin Season Index from BlockchainCenter.net, which was also shared by Shiba Inu’s marketing lead, the index is currently standing at 39, well below the 75 threshold required to confirm altseason. Notably, the data from BlockchainCenter.net shows that the index has been hovering in this range after bouncing from lower levels earlier in the year. As shown in the chart below, despite recent momentum from Ethereum and XRP, Bitcoin is still holding a dominant position in the total market cap. At the time of writing, Bitcoin dominance is currently around 61%, above the 60% level that typically signals room for altcoins to take over. Interestingly, this is a notable reduction from Bitcoin’s 64.3% dominance from three weeks ago.  Lucie attributed this decline in Bitcoin dominance to alt momentum slowly gaining traction across various sectors, including major altcoins and meme-based projects. This gradual build-up, she suggested, could represent an accumulation phase. This is a familiar August pattern that’s mostly always seen before stronger altcoin rallies. Eyes On September For Possible Breakout Although the current readings confirm that it is still Bitcoin Season, Lucie believes everything may already be setting the stage for an altcoin breakout next month. The combination of a drop in BTC dominance and a surge in the Altcoin Season Index above 75 would officially mark the shift. For now, eyes are on this breakout. Particularly, Lucie noted a September window for a decisive move that could ignite a true altseason. Related Reading: Hold On For Dear Life: This Bullish Bitcoin Metric Just Touched A 15-Year High At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s market dominance is at 60.0%, according to data from Coinmarketcap. Ethereum, on the other hand, has a market dominance of 12.2%. The last time the market saw altcoin dominance was in December 2024, when the Altcoin Season Index spiked to a reading of 88.  Since then, Bitcoin has maintained control, with the most recent attempt to push the index higher stalling at a 59 reading on July 21. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Onchain analytics platform Glassnode has revealed that most Bitcoin short-term holders are in profit. This development has raised the possibility of the flagship crypto facing another sell-off from this category of holders, who may be unable to hold during this period of sideways action. 70% of Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Are in Profit A Glassnode report revealed that 70% of the Bitcoin short-term holders’ supply is in profit despite the recent Bitcoin price pull-back. The platform noted that the deeper the correction, the more their supply is likely to fall into loss, a development which could affect these holders’ confidence.  Related Reading: Pundit Reveals When To Take Profit From Bitcoin Ahead Of Parabolic Rally The report further stated that, considering that the Bitcoin price is currently trading within a relatively thin air-gap, the sell pressure is likely to come from late-stage profit-taking, should this happen. For now, the sell pressure from these Bitcoin short-term holders looks to be relatively low.  Glassnode pointed out the percentage of spent volume originating from Bitcoin short-term holders who were in profit to assess how much this corrective phase has influenced these investors. This metric measures the number of recently acquired coins that are taking profit. The platform noted that the proportion of short-term holders spent coins taking profit has cooled off, currently at 45%, which is a neutral position.  Glassnode stated that this suggests that the market is in a relatively balanced position, calming fears about a potential sell-off from Bitcoin short-term holders. Meanwhile, the platform also alluded to the Bitcoin ETFs, which also create sell-side pressure for the flagship crypto. These ETFs recorded a net outflow of 1,500 BTC on August 5, the largest wave of sell-side pressure since April 2025.  The report noted that outflows from the Bitcoin ETFs have been relatively brief events, with only a few instances of an extended streak of daily outflows, which create sustained sell-side pressure. Glassnode believes that keeping an eye on the ETF flows will help to identify whether this latest outflow is just a repeat of the short-lived trend or a shift in investors’ sentiment.  $116,900 Is The Resistance Level BTC Needs To Break Above Glassnode indicated that the Bitcoin price needs to break above the $116,900 level decisively to build any momentum for the next leg up. This level serves as the cost basis of local top buyers who bought BTC over the last month. The platform claimed that a sustained price move above this level would signal that the demand side is regaining control.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Crash To $100,000 Or Rally To $122,000? Analyst Shows Game Plan For BTC Furthermore, it also offers early confirmation that the Bitcoin price has found reliable support and could continue its move to the upside. On the other hand, if BTC remains below this level for a longer period, Glassnode remarked that it increases the risk of a deeper correction. Bitcoin could drop toward the lower bound of the air gap near $110,000.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $116,800, up over 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

In a bold move that could reshape the crypto landscape, the US President is reportedly preparing to sign an executive order aimed at protecting access to BTC and digital assets. If enacted, this landmark policy would redefine the relationship between digital assets and the US financial system. Bitcoin Steps Into The Political Spotlight Bitcoin has officially entered the hall of power, as the US President Donald Trump is preparing to sign an executive order that would prohibit banks from refusing services to Bitcoin and crypto-related companies. This move signals a major shift in the US policy and ends years of financial censorship against the crypto industry. Related Reading: Strategy Expands Bitcoin Holdings With Massive Third-Largest Acquisition According to a crypto enthusiast, Henry, with this impending order, the crypto industry appears to be getting serious respect from the White House, after years of regulatory uncertainty and political pushback. In the coming days, Henry suggests that positive developments are on the horizon, especially involving Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. This kind of attention from the highest levels of government could shake up the entire market and trigger a wave of institutional interest and volatility. If this happens, it would be more than just good news, as it would be a game-changer. Not only could it act as a major catalyst for BTC, it would also open the doors for crypto businesses to access traditional financial services, which they need for growth. Bitcoin is gaining recognition among the highest forms of governments across the world. Reports show that the Indonesian Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka is exploring the possibility of adding Bitcoin to the country’s national reserves, according to a recent post from Bitcoin Indonesia. The move represents a bold step toward integrating digital assets into sovereign finance. If implemented, Indonesia would become one of the first major Asian economies to formally recognize BTC as a reserve asset, signaling a shift in how governments hedge against inflation, currency risk, and geopolitical uncertainty. The global spotlight is increasingly turning to crypto adoption at the state level. The Bhutan Government Moves $59.2 Million In BTC Several countries are engaging BTC globally at a rapid rate. In a significant and quietly executed move, the government of Bhutan has transferred 517 BTC, valued at approximately $59.2 million, to a new cryptocurrency wallet. This substantial transfer of BTC, reported by Crypto Rover on X, has sparked speculation among analysts and the crypto community about potential custody changes or strategic moves.  Related Reading: Bitcoin’s $115K Struggle: Is a Deeper Drop on the Horizon? The Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan has consistently maintained a low profile in the world of sovereign crypto holdings, making it one of the most discreet yet active state players in the digital asset space. This recent movement may indicate a shift toward enhanced security and measures in BTC reserves. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Last Friday’s US July Employment Situation release has delivered the kind of statistical jolt that rarely shows up outside crises, forcing traders to re-evaluate both the macro outlook and Bitcoin’s near-term path. Payrolls grew by just 73,000, but the shock lay in the record-large negative revisions: May and June were marked down by a combined 258,000 jobs, slicing the three-month hiring average to 35,000 and erasing nearly all of the second-quarter’s reported momentum. The Bureau of Labor Statistics notes that revisions of that magnitude have been seen only during the Covid collapse. Is Bitcoin Really Facing A Black Swan Event? Bloomberg Economics chief US economist Anna Wong wrote: “The downward revisions to May and June payrolls in the July jobs report constitute a black swan event – a three-standard-deviation move with less than a 0.2% chance of occurrence in the last 30 years. Adjusted for our estimate of the job overstatement from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ birth-death model, the three-month hiring pace turns outright negative.” The data, she wrote in a terminal note circulated Friday, “flipped the labor-market script” from re-acceleration to abrupt cooling. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could See Another Crash To Fill This Imbalance Before Rally To $120,000 The market’s crypto voice on the issue has been Bitwise Europe’s head of research, André Dragosch, who spent the morning posting a string of warnings on X. First came the news, ”According to Bloomberg chief economist Anna Wong, the most recent payroll revisions were a ‘black swan event’.Will probably get even worse before it gets better…”, then the maxim, “Yes – bad for payrolls = good for bitcoin, at least over the medium to long term.” Minutes later he argued that deeper revisions could force emergency easing: “NOTE: There is a strong case for a negative June jobs print after further downside revisions which could lead to a 50 bps rate cut in September… Plan accordingly. #Bitcoin” By mid-afternoon he pushed the point to its logical extreme: “ATTENTION: We are probably just a single negative NFP print away from a significant repricing in Fed rate cut expectations. US labor market & inflation data surprises are still as bad as during Covid but traders only price in 2 cuts until Dec 2025… Printer is coming… ” Interest-rate futures moved sharply in Dragosch’s direction. On Wednesdays, the CME FedWatch Tool showed a 91 percent probability of at least one cut at the 17–18 September FOMC meeting. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari acknowledged that “the real underlying economy is slowing,” while Governor Lisa Cook called the size of the revisions “concerning.” Related Reading: US Delay On Bitcoin Audit Is A Bullish Red Flag, Says Strike CEO Bitcoin’s price action captured the tug-of-war between recession fear and liquidity hope. The flagship cryptocurrency slumped to $111,920 on 2 August, its lowest print since early July, immediately after the payroll release and President Donald Trump’s subsequent firing of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer. A tentative rebound toward $111,500 followed as rate-cut odds ballooned this week. Yet, Bitcoin remained tethered to macro headlines rather than its own cycle. Still, the first clear sign of positioning for easier policy has emerged in fund flows. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net $91.6 million inflow on 7 August, snapping a four-day outflow streak that had drained more than $380 million from the vehicles. Whether Bloomberg’s and Dragosch’s black-swan framing proves prescient will depend on the next few data prints and the Fed’s tolerance for risk. For now the market is caught between those poles: one bad jobs number away from a full-blown policy response, but one more shock away from a broader risk-off spiral. The only certainty, as Wong’s probability math and Dragosch’s full-throated alerts both imply, is that the margin for error has evaporated. At press time, BTC traded at $116,359. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

James Howells, the British man who famously lost access to 8,000 Bitcoin in a 2013 landfill accident, is setting the record straight. Taking to X (formerly Twitter), Howells pushed back against recent social media claims that he has abandoned his search. He firmly denied the rumors and revealed a new strategy to reclaim his lost fortune, now worth roughly $923 million. Although he’s no longer seeking permission from his local council to search the landfill, he’s far from done.  Howells Debunks Rumors, Plans To Turn His Lost $1 Billion In Bitcoin Into Ceiniog Coin In the post shared on X, Howells confirmed he has not given up and slammed years of rejection from Newport City Council. For over a decade, he says he tried public proposals, legal talks, mediation, and even offered over $30 million to recover the drive buried in the landfill. “$1 billion and they ignored it all,” he wrote. With no response from the council, he has decided to stop waiting. Related Reading: Shiba Inu Team Member Reveals ‘Primary Challenge’ And ‘Top Priority’ Amid Market Uncertainty Instead of continuing legal fights or making more offers, Howells announced a new plan: to tokenize the entire wallet of 8,000 BTC into a new cryptocurrency called Ceiniog Coin (INI). Named after an ancient Welsh coin, Ceiniog will act as a Layer 2 token built on Bitcoin, matching 1:1 with satoshis, the smallest unit of Bitcoin. He plans to create 800 billion INI tokens, each directly linked to the 8,000 BTC sitting on the lost drive. According to Howells, Ceiniog will launch in late 2025, powered by Bitcoin’s OP_RETURN functionality. It will integrate with Web3 projects like Stacks, Runes, and Ordinals. With the ICO planned later this year, Howells hopes the coin’s market value will eventually match that of the lost BTC, making him a theoretical billionaire, just 8.34% away from that goal based on current prices. How He Lost The Bitcoin And What He’s Done To Get It Back The saga began in 2013, when James Howells, a British IT professional, accidentally threw out a hard drive that contained the keys to 8,000 BTC, now worth nearly a billion dollars. Realizing the mistake too late, Howells spent the next 12 years trying to recover it. Related Reading: Spot Ethereum ETFs Set A New Record In July With $5.4 Billion Monthly Inflow He submitted detailed recovery proposals, including environmental clean-up plans and AI-powered landfill scans. He even offered to raise $75 million by selling 21% of the Bitcoin’s value to fund the excavation. His most recent formal offer in July 2025, worth between $33 million and $40 million, included a full purchase of the landfill and a cleanup strategy. Citing environmental risks and lack of confidence in the outcome, the Newport City Council rejected the plan. Now, instead of digging through landfill waste, Howells is building Ceiniog Coin as his way of reclaiming what he believes is rightfully his. He plans to debut the coin at a discount, letting early supporters buy in before the coin reaches its full value. Over time, he hopes the token’s value will naturally rise to reflect the worth of 8,000 Bitcoin. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView.com

Jack Mallers, founder and CEO of Strike, ignited fresh debate over Washington’s still-undisclosed Bitcoin balance on Wednesday night, arguing that the US government is withholding the numbers because its position is “too small to lead” the digital-asset economy. “The US won’t disclose their BTC holdings. Why? Because they realized they don’t own enough,” Mallers posted on X, adding that the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) race is “far from over” and “I expect this to heat up.” US Bitcoin Silence Hints At Bigger Problem In a video attached to the post, the 30-year-old entrepreneur expanded on the point. He praised the administration’s decision in March to create an SBR but said the follow-through has fallen short: “The US government has kind of let us down in not giving us the full audit of how much Bitcoin the US government owns. … Clearly that information is sensitive or else they would disclose it. … I think that the US government is ashamed of its Bitcoin position.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Net Taker Volume Stays Bearish – Fragile Market Structure Risks Liquidation Cascade President Donald Trump’s Executive Order 14233 on 6 March formally established the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve alongside a broader Digital Asset Stockpile, framing Bitcoin as a “unique store of value in the global financial system.” A follow-up White House fact sheet stressed the goal of “positioning the United States as a leader among nations in government digital-asset strategy.” Yet when the administration unveiled its 163-page digital-assets strategy on 30 July, the document offered only a fleeting reference to the SBR and no hard figures. Robert “Bo” Hines—executive director of the President’s Council of Advisers on Digital Assets—noted, “I can’t discuss that right now … There are several reasons we’re not disclosing that at this time.” Over the past months, Hines’ tone was not apologetic. “We want as much Bitcoin as we can possibly get, and we’re going to continue to work on that,” he said in a separate interview, describing Bitcoin as “digital gold”. For years analysts believed the US government controlled well over 200,000 BTC thanks to Silk Road, Bitfinex-hack and other forfeitures. But a Freedom of Information Act response released in mid-July showed the US Marshals Service holding just 28,988 BTC—about $3.3 billion at today’s prices—rekindling speculation that earlier administrations quietly liquidated a large share of the trove. Separate on-chain data confirm that federal wallets sent 30,175 BTC to Coinbase Prime as early as April 2024, with additional transfers worth $1.9 billion following in December 2024. Related Reading: Bitcoin Stuck In Macro Purgatory—Top Analyst Says Q4 Or Bust Mallers seized on those numbers. “I think the Democrats sold off a bunch of that Bitcoin, and they don’t want to announce anything until they can build the position back,” he said, calling the audit delay “a branding problem” for a country that bills itself as the future Bitcoin super-power. Market Backdrop Bitcoin is trading above $114,000 after peaking at $123,000 last week, up more than 100 percent year-on-year. The float is already constrained: roughly 92 percent of all coins are mined, and large swaths sit in dormant or long-term-holder wallets. Should the Treasury accelerate SBR purchases—as Mallers predicts—the incremental buy-side pressure could tighten supply further. From Mallers’ vantage point, the political embarrassment he describes is ultimately price-positive: “If the US wants to plant its flag as the crypto capital, it has no choice but to accumulate. That’s the bullish takeaway. We’re talking about a buyer with the deepest pockets on Earth.” Whether Congress will backstop those purchases is another matter. Senator Cynthia Lummis has re-introduced a bill directing the Treasury to acquire up to one million BTC over five years, but appropriations committees have yet to schedule hearings. At press time, BTC traded at $114,572. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

After the bearish price action that began over the last weekend, Bitcoin has left some unfilled gaps open that could point to where the price is headed next. With two Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) yet to be filled, according to crypto analyst TehThomas, investors should expect a wave of uncertain movement in either direction. This is because Bitcoin needs to clear multiple liquidity levels before it is finally in a position to make a clean breakout. The Two FVGs Holding The Bitcoin Price Down In the analysis, Thomas explains that Bitcoin has created fair value gaps both above and below the current support level. The first of these lies above $117,000 and is expected to be the first to be filled. This position holds a lot of liquidity, and it is likely that this upper imbalance will be targeted first. Such a move would trigger stop losses and trap late longs who are tricked into buying the breakout. Related Reading: Market Expert Debunks Possible Bitcoin Top In November Using 9-12 Months Retail Cycle However, this Bitcoin breakout is not expected to last for long since only one FVG will have been filled at this level. The next FVG is way below the recent lows recorded at the start of August, sitting just above $111,000. The crypto analyst expects that a retracement from the breakout will push it back down to this level. This decline is, in itself, bullish as it will fill the imbalance at a point where there is a lot of demand. Just like the sweep upward above $117,000, the retracement to $111,000 is expected to clear internal liquidity. This will provide a clean slate from the compressing structure that the Bitcoin price has been trading within and could be the start of the next major move upward. What’s Next After Internal Liquidity Is Cleared? Once this move is in motion, the analyst points to the descending trendline as the next important formation on the Bitcoin price chart. For the price to continue upward, Thomas explains that Bitcoin would have to react from the upper imbalance of the trendline before falling back lower. This is the level that would determine confirmation for the next move. Related Reading: Cardano Marks Historical Milestone With Governance Vote, Hoskinson Reacts With internal liquidity also completely cleared at the end of the trend, Bitcoin is expected to have a “clean position to rally.” Targets would be the liquidity build-up at the previous wicks and area of rejection, which pushes all the way up toward $120,000. “This would complete the full cycle of imbalance fill, liquidity grab, and directional expansion,” Thomas said. However, he also added that “Price is unlikely to sustain a move higher until both zones have been addressed.” Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Japan’s largest bank, SBI, has unveiled plans to launch the country’s first exchange-traded fund (ETF) that will be linked to both Bitcoin (BTC) and XRP.  SBI Unveils Japan’s First Bitcoin And XRP ETF  According to circulating reports, this investment vehicle aims to trade on the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE), offering institutional investors a regulated avenue to gain exposure to two of the market’s largest cryptocurrencies.  In addition, the country’s financial giant has introduced a second product, the Digital Gold Crypto ETF, which will allocate 51% to gold and 49% to cryptocurrencies.  Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Crash Could End Soon With A Roadmap For $5 This structure is reportedly designed to mitigate investment risks through diversification, catering to a growing interest in combining traditional assets with digital currencies. This announcement arrives at a pivotal moment as Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) is contemplating regulatory changes that could simplify the approval and tax processes for cryptocurrency-related financial products.  Such developments may further enhance the attractiveness of these offerings to investors looking for regulated investment opportunities in the crypto space. Meanwhile, across the waters in China, the focus is shifting towards the introduction of the country’s first stablecoin.  Hong Kong Emerges As Crypto Testing Ground Reports from the Financial Times indicate that Hong Kong has emerged as a testing ground for cryptocurrency initiatives, particularly in light of the stringent bans imposed on the mainland.  Recently, Hong Kong passed legislation allowing licensed businesses to issue tokens backed by any fiat currency. However, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has adopted a cautious approach, announcing that only a limited number of licenses will be granted starting next year. Chinese policymakers are increasingly recognizing the significance of stablecoins, particularly in the context of dollar-backed tokens that dominate the global economy.  Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bull Run In Jeopardy? Expert Reveals Strategy’s Alleged Plan To Sell All BTC Holdings In a speech made in June, Pan Gongsheng, the governor of China’s central bank, noted that stablecoins have “fundamentally reshaped the traditional payment landscape.”  This acknowledgment reflects a growing interest in stablecoins from Chinese state-owned enterprises, especially for payment and settlement solutions. Several state-owned companies operating in Hong Kong are reportedly preparing to apply for stablecoin licenses, although only one of China’s four major state-owned banks is anticipated to receive a license from the HKMA in this initial phase.  Notably, the HKMA has not ruled out the possibility of approving licenses for stablecoins backed by offshore renminbi, a potential move that could greatly facilitate cross-border payments—an increasingly vital area for China as it seeks to enhance its financial influence globally. When writing, Bitcoin trades at $115,245, recording a 1% recovery in the 24-hour time frame. When compared to its recently achieved all-time high (ATH) of $123,000, the cryptocurrency has retraced over 6%.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn used today’s price weakness to publish a granular, 10-part “Bitcoin Market Analysis” on X that dissects the post-ATH landscape with on-chain detail and a clear technical line in the sand. “Bitcoin broke its all-time high, but here’s the catch: long-term holders are [starting] to sell into the strength,” he wrote, adding that what matters now is how the market digests that supply above and around the breakout zone. In his framing, the first stress test is underway. Is The Bitcoin Bull Run Over? The thread anchors around one headline-grabbing datapoint: “the LTH selling pressure includes the 80,000 BTC sold by the Satoshi-era wallet.” That description is Maartunn’s interpretation of July’s extraordinary movement of eight “ancient” wallets that shifted roughly 80,000 BTC after ~14 years of dormancy via Galaxy Digital. Beyond the drama of this single entity, Maartunn argues that behavior across the holder spectrum is what’s driving the tape. “Retail is stepping in after the ATH,” he noted, describing a familiar pattern of late-cycle enthusiasm that followed Bitcoin’s push through $120,000 in mid-July. That surge set a new record near $123,000 before momentum faded; spot prices are now revolving around $113,000–$115,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is Secretly Tracking This Market Signal: Weiss Crypto The bid didn’t vanish entirely. “Fresh capital did help the ATH-breakout buyers,” Maartunn wrote, pointing to balance-sheet demand “from firms like Strategy and Metaplanet.” Those purchases are verifiable. Strategy—the rebranded MicroStrategy—disclosed 21,021 BTC bought between July 28 and Aug. 3 at an average of ~$117,256, lifting its holdings to ~628,791 BTC. Tokyo-listed Metaplanet added 463 BTC on Aug. 4, taking treasury holdings to 17,595 BTC. Even so, those corporate flows “weren’t enough to hold Bitcoin around the ~$120k level,” the analyst said. Where the thread turns more cautionary is on short-term hands. “Short-Term Holders started to puke and sell at a loss,” Maartunn wrote, quantifying realized-loss waves of 52,230 BTC (July 15–18), 42,493 BTC (July 24–28), and 70,028 BTC “after July 31.” He called the last episode notable “not just [for] the size, but the duration,” arguing that prolonged STH loss-realization is a pressure valve that typically needs time to exhaust. These are Maartunn’s on-chain tallies; they have not been separately published by data vendors in aggregate form. The flows picture from listed products has begun to rhyme with that stress. “ETFs are also seeing outflows,” he observed. Multiple trackers confirm a downswing: CoinShares logged the first net weekly outflow in 15 weeks (-$223 million) with Bitcoin funds leading at -$404 million, while daily tallies this week show US spot Bitcoin ETFs bleeding for several sessions, including about -$196 million on Tuesday. Framing differs by window, but the direction is clear: the bid from ETFs is wobbling at the margin. Related Reading: Bitcoin Risks Another Crash Following Recovering Into Bearish FVG Zone Technically, Maartunn fixes attention on the former breakout zone. “Bitcoin is finding support around its previous ATH — roughly $112K,” he wrote, pointing to a confluence between chart structure and on-chain price-distribution. His on-chain map “backs it up,” flagging “strong support in the $108K–$112K range,” an area where a large volume of coins last changed hands. Context matters. Bitcoin’s July all-time high sits around $123,000 on major benchmarks—an extension of 2025’s institutional-heavy advance—so calling $112,000 a “previous ATH” refers to the nearer-term breakout plateau that preceded price discovery, not the absolute record. That nuance is why Maartunn concludes with a conditional: “So far this cycle, we haven’t seen any previous ATH break down… Until that changes, this looks like a normal pullback. But if we do break below a former ATH ($112k), that’s a real shift in market behavior.” In the near term, the credibility of that ~$108,000–$112,000 “shelf” will likely be decided by whether supply from profit-taking long-term holders, loss-realizing short-term holders, and ETF redemptions continues to outweigh balance-sheet demand and organic spot inflows. If the shelf holds, Maartunn’s base case is “a normal pullback” that bleeds off excesses from the ATH push. If it fails decisively, he argues, the cycle would be showing its first meaningful breach of a prior breakout—an observable change in behavior rather than a narrative turn of phrase. At press time, BTC traded at $114,238. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Despite the recent Bitcoin (BTC) price correction after a significant rally that propelled the cryptocurrency to a record high of $123,000, some analysts remain optimistic about the potential for a renewed bull run. However, one expert has raised a concerning warning that could signal the end of this bullish cycle. Fears Of Mass Sell-Off According to market expert OxArtikal’s thesis shared on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), Michael Saylor’s Strategy (previously MicroStrategy), the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, is reportedly planning to sell all of its Bitcoin holdings by 2025.  This revelation comes amid movements of their substantial Bitcoin reserves to different wallets, raising alarms about the potential implications for the market. Related Reading: XRP Soars 35% in a Month: Will Ripple’s Legal Win and Whale Activity Send Price to New Highs? Strategy currently controls over 628,000 BTC, representing more than 3% of Bitcoin’s total circulating supply. For context, the collapse of FTX, which held approximately 20,000 BTC, triggered a significant downturn in the market.  The expert believes that the potential sale of Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings could have a dramatically larger impact, estimated to be 30 times more severe. Notably, Saylor has long maintained that Strategy would never sell its Bitcoin. However, the expert identified that in late June, the company quietly transferred 7,382 BTC—valued at nearly $800 million—out of its wallets and into three new wallets with no prior transaction history.  This Bitcoin was subsequently sent to Coinbase Prime, a sell-side custodian, without any public announcement or clarification during the company’s Q2 earnings report.  If Strategy were to liquidate even a small portion of its holdings, the psychological ramifications could be profound, OxArtikal further stated. He shared that this could lead to a mass sell-off, while institutional investors could reconsider their BTC allocations.  Bitcoin Could Crash Below $70,000  Historically, Strategy’s actions have coincided with significant market shifts. In 2022, the company transferred 34,000 BTC to secure a loan, shortly before a major market crash. Now, as they appear to be moving substantial amounts of Bitcoin again, the expert fears that a similar scenario could unfold.  OxArtikal asserts that sell-off by Strategy could potentially drive the price below $70,000 within days, undermining the retail comeback and deterring new investors who view Bitcoin as a long-term safe haven. Related Reading: Bitcoin Stuck In Macro Purgatory—Top Analyst Says Q4 Or Bust While it is not confirmed that Saylor will sell his holdings, the signs are troubling: the recent wallet movements, the involvement of Coinbase Prime, and a lack of transparency during earnings calls all point to a potential shift in strategy.  If Strategy were to exit the Bitcoin market, the expert claims that it wouldn’t merely result in a correction; it could trigger a market-wide reset, erasing years of built-up trust and confidence in Bitcoin as “digital gold.” Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin is showing signs of life after a sharp drop from the $115,000 level, with bullish momentum quietly rebuilding beneath the surface. As volatility settles, a potential recovery is beginning to take shape, fueled by key technical signals on lower timeframes. With the market stabilizing, the next move could define the short-term trend. Sharp Pullback Follows Rejection At $115,000 Resistance Zone Providing an update on the current state of the crypto market, Kurnia Bijaksana pointed out that Bitcoin, along with several altcoins, experienced a sharp decline last night. The sudden move caught the attention of traders and analysts alike, prompting a closer look at both the technical and fundamental factors driving the action. Related Reading: Bitcoin Buying Spree Ends On Coinbase: Temporary Pause Or Trend Shift? From a purely technical perspective, the decline appears to have been triggered by Bitcoin hitting a key resistance zone near the $115,000 level. Despite the pullback, Kurnia observed that Bitcoin’s price is now showing early signs of recovery. This area has acted as a ceiling for prices in recent sessions, and the rejection sparked selling pressure across the broader crypto market.  However, on the intraday chart, a rebound is already underway, suggesting that buyers are stepping in to defend key levels and potentially absorb the recent selling. Whether this bounce can turn into a sustained move higher remains to be seen, but for now, the charts suggest that Bitcoin may be stabilizing after the initial drop. 1-Hour Chart Reveals Early Signs Of A Trend Reversal Kurnia Bijaksana provided further analysis, focusing on Bitcoin’s price action within the 1-hour timeframe. According to the analyst, BTC is currently forming a higher low—a classic indicator that signals growing bullish momentum and the potential for an upward continuation in the near term. Related Reading: Bitcoin Pullback Remains Within Normal Volatility Range: Drawdown Analysis Shows No Signs Of Panic Bijaksana also highlighted the potential development of an inverse head and shoulders pattern, which is typically seen as a strong bullish reversal signal. In this case, the neckline of the pattern is located around the $115,300 level, a key resistance zone that Bitcoin must break through to confirm further upside. If Bitcoin manages to break and hold above this neckline, Bijaksana believes it could trigger a measured move toward the $118,000 level. A confirmation of this breakout would provide a clear bullish signal, possibly paving the way for continued strength in the coming sessions. Bitcoin is currently priced around $114,315, boasting a market capitalization exceeding $2.2 trillion. Over the past 24 hours, it has recorded a trading volume of more than $58.8 billion, reflecting strong market activity. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Crypto analyst Mark Cullen has laid out the game plan for the Bitcoin price amid the flagship crypto’s choppy price action. Based on his analysis, BTC could either crash to $100,000 or rally to $122,000, close to its current all-time high (ATH) of $123,000.  The Game Plan For The Bitcoin Price In an X post, Mark Cullen shared what he described as the ‘Bitcoin game plan.’ He noted that BTC is filling out the inefficient area between the two previous weekly ranges. The analyst further remarked that the next move will be determined by how the Bitcoin price breaks out or breaks down from this range.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Completes Inverted Head & Shoulders Pattern Above $110,000, What This Means Cullen stated that a break above $116,000 and holding above the previous range low could help the Bitcoin price build a bullish structure for a bigger squeeze to new ATHs later this month. His accompanying chart showed that BTC could first rally to around $122,000, close to its current ATH, before it breaks above to new highs.  On the other hand, there is also the possibility of the Bitcoin price declining further. The analyst stated BTC is likely to crash to $100,000 if it loses the weekend low at around $111,000 and fails to attempt a reclaim of $112,000. Cullen declared that critical weeks’ price action is ahead for the flagship crypto, seeing as it is at a crossroads.  It is worth mentioning that BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is one of those who believe that the Bitcoin price could still crash to $100,000. Hayes recently predicted that BTC will retest this level while ETH retests $3,000. He alluded to the tariffs as one of the reasons crypto prices would drop this low. The crypto founder also suggests that there is currently no available liquidity to boost the prices of these assets. The last time that Bitcoin was at $100,000 was towards the end of June, before it then went on to reach new all-time highs in July. BTC Could Still Drop To As Low As $95k Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has indicated that the Bitcoin price could still drop to as low as 95,000. In an X post, he noted that the last two times the weekly RSI dropped below the 14 SMA, BTC corrected by 20% to 30%. Therefore, he remarked that the flagship crypto could fall to $95,000 if history repeats itself.  Related Reading: Satoshimeter Shows Where Bitcoin Price Is In This Cycle In the meantime, the $112,000 level is the level to watch for the Bitcoin price. Titan of Crypto described this level as the line in the sand,” as BTC continues to reject the bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) at around $114,000. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $114,000, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The Bitcoin price has rebounded once again after initially testing the waters with a crash to $112,000. This was spurred by profit-taking as the digital asset had risen to levels not seen before back in July 2025. However, this recovery does not mean that Bitcoin is completely out of the water, especially given the fact that it has retraced to a level that would be considered bearish at this point. Bearish FVG Could Send Bitcoin Price Crashing In an analysis, crypto analyst Kamran Asghar revealed that the Bitcoin retrace could only be temporary and short-lived as it has moved back into a bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG). This comes after a small bounce from $112,000 toward $115,000, with this bearish FVG lying between $114,000 and $115,500. Related Reading: Pundit Says Ethereum Price Is Headed For $9,000 After This Broadening Wedge Retest This fair value gap had been created following the price crash from $118,000, suggesting that the Bitcoin price would be looking to fill it again. Additionally, this level acts as a major supply zone, meaning that bulls would have to turn up the buying if the Bitcoin price is to cross this level without issue. Given the fact that the bearish FVG and the supply zone are riding ahead of the cryptocurrency, it shows that there is a lot of resistance building at this level. Kamran suggests that the next move after hitting this supply zone would be a rejection from this level, leading to a further beating down of the price. How Low Could BTC Go? In the event of a hard rejection, the crypto analyst sees the Bitcoin price tumbling further downward into mid-July levels between $107,500 and $109,000. This would mean another 5% crash for the Bitcoin price before it is able to find support. Related Reading: Analyst Warns XRP Investors Not To Let Fear Dictate Moves As Long As Price Holds This Level The silver lining of this possible crash is the fact that Bitcoin has major support at this level. Thus, Bitcoin bulls could stage a rebound using this level as the next lift-off point for a recovery. Due to this, the crypto analyst warns investors to keep an eye on the digital asset to see how it reacts at this level. Interestingly, at this time, the Bitcoin funding rate is still positive, Coinglass shows. What this means is that traders believe that the digital asset is still in a bull market, and more investors are betting on the price continuing to rise from here. However, the positive funding rate has seen some decline in the month of August, suggesting a slowdown among bulls. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

In his August 5 “Macro Monday” livestream, crypto analyst Josh Olszewicz delivered a review of the market’s late-summer state, arguing that while Bitcoin’s price action has gone quiet, the broader cycle remains intact. “We’re in this pocket of seasonal weakness for August and September that we typically see most years,” he explained, pointing to seasonality charts showing that historically, Bitcoin underperforms in this time window. “It’s a high likelihood that August and September is a giant nothing burger,” he added. Is The Bitcoin Bull Run Over? At day 978 of the current cycle, the question many investors are asking, Olszewicz noted, is simple but existential: is the cycle already over? Will it end this year? Or is there more upside ahead? His answer leaned cautiously optimistic. “I’m in the ‘probably not over yet, could continue’ camp,” he said. “But we will have to see what happens in Q4. Ultimately, that’s going to determine it.” From a technical standpoint, the analyst sees no reason to declare the top is in. “Technicals still look fine. Price still looks okay. We had a pullback. All that is fine,” he said, emphasizing that Bitcoin has not yet exhibited the typical parabolic advance associated with major tops. Nor have other macro or on-chain metrics shown signs of terminal overheating. “We don’t have other metrics screaming from the rooftop saying it’s time yet.” Related Reading: Top Analyst Says Bitcoin Is Trapped: ‘Nothing To Do Until October’ However, the short-term setup is underwhelming. After a cup-and-handle breakout that briefly pushed price toward the $122,000–$123,000 region, momentum faded. Olszewicz doubts such levels can be reclaimed soon: “In the next two weeks we’ll know if we can start to creep back towards $120,000, which is asking a lot admittedly for August.” The wildcard, he said, is ETF flows. “Do we see ETF flows for any reason? Then do we see treasury companies continuing to buy? Those are the marginal buyers right now.” He suggested that ETF buyers could return due to a combination of underweight positioning, opportunistic dip-buying, and monthly rebalancing dynamics. Still, he remains neutral overall. “Just a general softening of any bullishness we may have had,” he said. “Now it’d be a different story if this is October and we’re seeing this. That’s not normal.” A further reason for caution is the collapse in futures basis across major assets. “Premium is all the way down to under 7% on BTC. It’s under 8% on ETH. And I think SOL is a little more illiquid, but even SOL is way down—15% from 35%,” he noted. That contraction in futures premiums, typically a sign of speculative demand drying up, reflects a broader risk-off mood. “Not a lot of bullish sentiment, not a lot of craziness,” Olszewicz observed. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Losing Steam? Analysts Warn of Fragile Market Support On-chain risk metrics confirm the trend. “There’s a decline here in risk appetite,” he said, referring to metrics like unrealized profit versus MVRV. He added that if Bitcoin were to enter a parabolic advance, “you will see this metric shoot up… But what’s it going to take?” Q4 Or Bust He floated a few possibilities: rate cuts, weakening Fed independence, or perhaps just seasonal strength and macro chaos in Q4. But for now, he advised traders to “take it easy on the 50X leverage,” especially those who’ve already made significant gains this cycle. “Do I need to put risk back on? Do I need to be as risky as I was earlier?” he asked rhetorically. “Or does it make more sense to be less risky here?” From a macroeconomic perspective, the picture is mixed. Inflation data from Trueflation remains low—currently at 1.65%—but Olszewicz warned that new post–August 1 tariffs may raise prices in the months ahead. “We are adding inflationary pressures with tariffs, no doubt about it,” he said, though the effect will take time to appear in the data. Meanwhile, core PCE is headed in the wrong direction, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is printing 2.1% growth for Q3—hardly recessionary, but not robust either. Labor market data continues to cloud the outlook. “If we account for a non-collapsing labor force participation, we could be as high as 4.9% on the actual unemployment rate,” Olszewicz warned. “And we’re continuing to see a degradation in job availability for manufacturing,” particularly in “Heartland Rust Belt types of jobs.” Liquidity dynamics are also in flux. He drew attention to the draining of the Fed’s reverse repo facility—once a $2 trillion reservoir of sidelined capital—which has supported risk assets through 2023 and 2024. “As this gets drained closer to completion, there’s a potential likelihood for liquidity hiccups and a liquidity intervention by the Fed,” he said. Importantly, this has kept overall US liquidity flat, offsetting quantitative tightening. “Despite QT, the drain of the reverse repo has offset QT, and US liquidity by this metric has been basically flat since 2022.” What changed the game, Olszewicz said, was not liquidity per se, but the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs. “That has really been, in my opinion, a big difference maker,” he explained. “We got ETF approvals here, ETF started trading here, and the rest is history as far as flows are concerned.” In conclusion, Olszewicz emphasized that while the broader risk appetite has declined and price action remains dull, there is no evidence yet that the Bitcoin cycle has topped. “The cycle’s probably not over,” he said. “It’s just sleeping—and Q4 will ultimately determine whether it wakes up.” At press time, BTC traded at $113,041. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin mining difficulty has hit the brakes in 2025. For the first time in the network’s history, difficulty is rising at a slow pace and is on track for its slowest annual difficulty growth rate ever recorded. Signals Of Consolidation In The Bitcoin Mining Landscape Bitcoin mining difficulty has risen by 0.5% since June 1st, signaling an extraordinary slowdown in network expansion. According to mining infrastructure firm Blockware’s post on X, the Year-to-Date mining difficulty is up only 16%, which is a stark contrast to prior post-halving years. “2025 is on pace to see the slowest growth in mining difficulty in BTC history,” Blockware added. Related Reading: Bitcoin Mining Power Nears New Record: 7-Day Hashrate Hits 942 EH/s The mining growth will continue to slow down due to the following reasons: The mining Hardware is reaching the limits of Moore’s law. This is approaching the physical and economic limits of chip miniaturization, and making the new generation of miners only marginally more efficient. The physical infrastructure and energy production are the bottlenecks for growth, which is about powering the scaling of mining and ordering machines. Lastly, the data center operators are diversifying into AI and high-performance computing (HPC). However, this is bullish for BTC miners as it means less competition for the 450 BTC that are mined daily. As BTC trends steadily toward six figures, miners are positioned to arbitrage energy and compute, while producing BTC at a substantial discount to its market value. Currently, a Bitmain S21 XP hosted at the Blockware mining site is producing 1 BTC for just $55,000 in electricity costs. This is a significant discount to the market price of BTC. The benefit of BTC mining is the ability to depreciate 100% of the hardware costs and create powerful tax offsets. When combined with Tax benefits and BTC accumulation, this is how generational wealth is created. The Shift Toward Cleaner Energy And Sustainable Mining SustainableBTC has also highlighted on X that in 2017, a Newsweek article warned that Bitcoin was on track to consume all of the world’s energy by 2020. Furthermore, in 2019, the academic paper reported that emissions from BTC mining alone would push global temperatures above 2°C. Related Reading: Bitcoin Mining Hits Jackpot: JPMorgan Unveils Record Profits in Q1 Analysis Since then, there has been a widespread belief that BTC mining is harmful to the environment. However, in reality, BTC mining has the potential to be a powerful tool in the clean energy transition and a force for climate justice. In the midst of this widespread view, SustainableBTC noted that awareness and advocacy alone are not enough to change deeply rooted perceptions about BTC mining and sustainability. To move the industry forward, there is a need for transparent, auditable data, market-based incentives that align with economic performance, and environmental responsibility. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The debate around Bitcoin’s top for this cycle has been a major topic as market participants eye potential peaks later this year. Although some analysts have forecasted a blow-off top in October or November, Quinten Francois, a respected crypto market commentator, strongly disagrees. Drawing from historical data and market psychology, Francois believes that the current bull market is far from over and that expectations for a Q4 2025 top are “just not going to happen.” November Is Too Soon For A Bitcoin Peak Taking to the social media platform X, Bitcoin commentator Quinten argued that any expectations for a full market peak by November completely overlook how previous cycles have unfolded. He pointed out that in both 2017 and 2021, the altseason, the period when altcoins outperform Bitcoin, began in Q1 of those respective bull market years. Related Reading: Altcoin Season Loading As Bitcoin Dominance Crashes Toward 60% From that point, the retail-driven psychological cycle took roughly 9 to 12 months to fully play out. This time around, the analyst suggests that altseason hasn’t even started in earnest. The ETH/BTC ratio, often used as the criteria for altseason momentum, is only just beginning to reverse. Given this timing, Quinten noted that a cycle top occurring within the next two or three months is nearly impossible. The moment altseason begins marks the entry of broad retail participation, and from that point onward, it typically takes 9 to 12 months for euphoria and market excess to reach a crescendo.  If history is any guide, the current psychological cycle is still in its early stages because the retail cycle hasn’t properly kicked in yet. This would push a market peak into the second or third quarter of 2026 at the earliest. Altcoin Cycle Will Determine If Peak Is Possible The only condition that could allow for a major top this year, Quinten admitted, would be an absence of an altcoin cycle altogether. That scenario, or a catastrophic black swan event, could short-circuit the retail cycle and lead to an earlier-than-usual top. However, the possibility of this happening is very low, and this psychological cycle simply cannot play out much quicker than 9-12 months. Related Reading: Altcoin Season Index Spikes Above 30, But Bitcoin Dominance Remains High, What Next? As such, Bitcoin’s price action is most likely to play out like it has always done. “If things unfold as they historically have (we can only count on this), then it’s just not going to happen,” he said. Although the analyst did not give a price target for the expected Bitcoin top for this cycle, other technical analysts have pointed to targets between $140,000 and $200,000. In another post on the social media platform, Quinten noted that Bitcoin is currently playing out its biggest bullish setup in history. This outlook is based on a current retest of an ascending trendline of all-time highs, which Bitcoin broke above in July. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $114,460, having declined by about 3.7% in the past seven days. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

A thread posted late on 4 August 2025 by Weiss Crypto analyst Juan Villaverde has ignited debate about a rarely discussed harbinger of Bitcoin price cycles. In a thread on X, the quantitative researcher argued that an “overlooked asset class”—one he says almost no-one monitors in a crypto context—consistently pivots months before Bitcoin does, offering what he calls “a sneak peek at major turning points.” Villaverde’s proprietary back-testing suggests the lag is approximately six months, enough lead time, he claims, to anticipate the apex of the current bull market in late November. How Gold’s Trendlines Map The Bitcoin Price “Many are aware that Bitcoin tends to follow global liquidity—with a roughly twelve-week lag,” Weiss Crypto wrote, setting the stage for the reveal. “But Juan Villaverde has quietly tracked a different early indicator… one that can signal where BTC is headed six months in advance.” In a follow-up post he teased, “That little-known indicator? [ … ]. Turns out, its price action often leads Bitcoin by several months—providing a sneak peek at major turning points.” Related Reading: Top Analyst Says Bitcoin Is Trapped: ‘Nothing To Do Until October’ Villaverde’s thesis rests on a data series stretching back to the advent of modern crypto markets. He points to the trough of December 2018, which, in his reconstruction, was foreshadowed by a significant low in the mystery market some weeks earlier. “After analysing years of data, Juan spotted a consistent pattern,” Weiss Crypto stated, quoting the analyst to the effect that “major lows [there] tend to precede major lows in Bitcoin.” The same lead-lag cadence, Villaverde notes, flashed red in November 2021 when Bitcoin printed its all-time high even as the benchmark asset he tracks refused to break higher—an omen that presaged the 2022 bear market. The model is not without blemishes. Weiss Crypto acknowledged “one exception in recent years—during the Russia–Ukraine invasion—where the Bitcoin relationship temporarily inverted due to macro chaos.” Yet Villaverde maintains the anomaly reinforces rather than weakens his conviction: exogenous geopolitical shocks can distort correlations, but once the shock dissipates the historic rhythm reasserts itself. Related Reading: Bitcoin Neutral Sentiment Didn’t Last Long: Investors Already Greedy Again Where does that leave the market in mid-2025? “According to Juan’s analysis,” the firm wrote, “the indicator is pointing to a major high in Bitcoin around late November 2025. That aligns perfectly with his Crypto Timing Model.” Villaverde cautions that the signal is dynamic, not deterministic. If the benchmark asset he watches “rallies above its April high,” it would imply “Bitcoin could march higher into 2026.” Conversely, any decisive breakdown would “be an early warning that crypto’s bull market may be nearing its end after November.” Villaverde insists the relationship he has identified is robust because it focuses on magnitude rather than direction alone. “It’s not only the turns that matter,” he said in a direct message to this outlet, “but the amplitude of those turns.” By quantifying both, he argues, the signal captures investor psychology cycling from fear to greed and back again. At press time, BTC traded at $114,522. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

After falling below a crucial support level, Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to recover some of its lost ground. An analyst suggested that this week’s performance will be decisive for the cryptocurrency’s next trend. Related Reading: Pundit Says Ethereum Price Is Headed For $9,000 After This Broadening Wedge Retest Bitcoin Loses Bull Flag Formation Over the weekend, Bitcoin lost its post-breakout range for the first time in three weeks, falling to a local low of $112,296 on August 3. The flagship crypto had been trading between the $114,000-$120,000 range since the early July breakout, hitting its all-time high (ATH) of $122,838 amid the rally. As July neared its end, BTC experienced some volatility, retesting the range lows twice over its last week. However, the cryptocurrency was unable to repeat its price recovery from the previous weekend, losing the crucial area on August 1. Rekt Capital noted that Bitcoin’s rally could be at risk, explaining that BTC has formed a bull flag in the weekly chart and held the pattern’s lows as support until the latest Weekly Close. Following its recent price action, the analyst considers that this week’s performance will be pivotal to see whether the pattern’s bottom, around the $117,200 area, will become a new resistance and confirm the breakdown, or if the flagship crypto’s price will recover the structure. According to the analysis, if the price can reclaim the structure, the correction would be considered a fake downside deviation before resynchronizing with the pattern. Meanwhile, turning the pattern’s bottom into resistance would be a bearish retest, confirming the breakdown, and potentially leading to a new retest of the $112,000 area as support. BTC’s Weekly Close To Determine Next Trend Rekt Capital also detailed that this week’s performance will determine the future of BTC’s second Price Discovery uptrend, which has technically started its fifth week. Depending on what happens to the Bull Flag (reclaim or a confirmation of the breakdown), we will know whether the Price Discovery Uptrend 2 will continue or whether BTC has experienced a very short PDU2 instead. Last week, the analyst retesting that the continuation of the Price Discovery trend could fail as BTC transitioned into weeks 5-7 of this phase. Historically, the second uptrend has started to slow down around Weeks 5-6, hitting its peak during this “Danger Zone.” If Bitcoin reclaims the Bull Flag and challenges new highs, then its second Price Discovery uptrend will progress according to its historical tendencies. However, if it fails to Weekly Close above the pattern’s bottom and confirms additional downside, the second Price Discovery uptrend would have ended in Week 2, much quicker than has historically been the case. Moreover, it would reveal that BTC has been in its second Price Discovery Correction, which “would be going completely against the grain of history.” Related Reading: Analyst Warns XRP Investors Not To Let Fear Dictate Moves As Long As Price Holds This Level The analyst suggested that macro-wise, Bitcoin still has plenty of time for a third Price Discovery uptrend. If the second phase has already ended, a final uptrend could overcompensate for the current uptrend’s underperformance. Previously, Rekt Capital asserted that what comes after the second uptrend would depend on how long the corrective phase takes, as a shot correction could allow for a third uptrend before the bear market. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

Michael Saylor’s enterprise software company, Strategy (previously MicroStrategy), has made headlines once again with a substantial Bitcoin (BTC) acquisition, pushing its total holdings beyond 600,000 coins.  The company purchased an impressive $2.46 billion worth of Bitcoin over the past week, marking its third-largest purchase by dollar amount since it began acquiring the digital asset five years ago. Bitcoin Acquisition At Record Prices Between July 28 and August 3, Strategy added 21,021 Bitcoin to its holdings, bringing its total to 628,791 tokens. At current market prices, the firm’s portfolio is valued at over $71 billion.  Saylor has adeptly transformed his company from a traditional software provider into the leading corporate buyer of Bitcoin, utilizing innovative financial strategies to fuel these purchases. Related Reading: Top Analyst Says Bitcoin Is Trapped: ‘Nothing To Do Until October’ The latest acquisition was made at an average price of $117,526 per token, which is the second-highest price the company has ever paid, just shy of the $118,940 average from the previous month.  Strategy is the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, according to data from BitcoinTreasuries.net. BTC mining company MARA Holdings is second with 50,000 coins, which highlights Saylor’s firm’s purchasing power. Notably, this position has not only solidified Saylor’s influence in the crypto space but has also inspired other public companies to adopt similar treasury strategies aimed at accumulating and holding digital currencies. These include Trump’s social media company, boosted by a new regulatory regime and legislation in the US aimed at positioning the country as the crypto capital of the world, a mission that President Donald Trump has advocated since his election campaign last year. Saylor’s Strategy Pledges To Protect Shareholder Value To fund these massive purchases, Bitcoin bull Michael Saylor has employed a mix of common and preferred share sales alongside debt instruments. Recently, the company launched its latest preferred stock offering, dubbed “Stretch,” in late July.  In its second-quarter report, Strategy announced an unrealized gain of $14 billion, primarily driven by the recent rebound in Bitcoin prices and a new accounting requirement that necessitated the revaluation of its Bitcoin holdings. Saylor has also made a commitment to investors, stating that he will refrain from issuing new common shares at less than 2.5 times the company’s net asset value, except for covering debt interest or preferred dividends.  Related Reading: Analyst Warns XRP Investors Not To Let Fear Dictate Moves As Long As Price Holds This Level This pledge comes in light of concerns raised by critics like Jim Chanos, who have expressed apprehension about the premium that Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings place on its share price and the numerous securities offerings the company has executed. Since its initial foray into Bitcoin, Strategy’s stock, MSTR, has skyrocketed over 3,000%, significantly outperforming Bitcoin itself and major stock indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.  The company’s largest purchases occurred in November, totaling $5.4 billion and $4.6 billion, respectively, demonstrating Saylor’s aggressive strategy in the cryptocurrency market. However, on Monday, the firm did not disclose any further purchases, as it has commonly done over the past few months. Perhaps it is starting to reassess its direction with biweekly acquisitions. It remains to be seen what the firm’s next moves will be, as there have been no further official comments on the matter. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

On-chain analytics platform Arkham Intelligence recently uncovered the biggest crypto hack ever. The hack involved stolen Bitcoin worth $3.5 billion at the time, now worth $14 billion, which is larger than the $1.5 billion Bybit hack this year.  Arkham Intelligence Unveils $14 Billion Hack on Chinese Mining Pool LuBian In an X post, Arkham revealed that it had uncovered a $3.5 billion Bitcoin heist, the largest ever. This hack was on LuBian, which was a Chinese mining pool with facilities in China and Iran. The analytics platform stated that 127,426 BTC appears to have been stolen from LuBian in December 2020. These coins, which were worth $3.5 billion at the time, are now valued at $14.5 billion based on the current Bitcoin price.  Related Reading: From Riches To Chains: Crypto King Arrested For Torturing Bitcoin Investor In Horror Scheme Furthermore, the platform noted that neither LuBian nor the hacker has publicly acknowledged the hack since it took place in 2020. At the time, the Chinese firm was one of the world’s largest mining pools, controlling almost 6% of the Bitcoin network’s total hash rate as of May 2020. Arkham revealed that the mining pool appears to have been first hacked on December 28, 2020, for over 90% of its BTC.  The hacker subsequently stole around $6 million worth of BTC and USDT on December 29 from a LuBian address that was active on the Bitcoin Omni layer. On December 31, LuBian then rotated its remaining funds to recovery wallets. This hack trumps the Bybit hack of $1.5 billion, which occurred on February 21 earlier this year.  Unlike the LuBian hack, which involved Bitcoin, hackers stole over 400,000 ETH from Bybit’s cold wallets through social engineering. As a result, the hackers were able to authorize these transfers despite the wallets being multisig.   Attempts To Recover The Stolen Bitcoin Arkham also revealed that LuBian had made attempts to recover the stolen Bitcoin by contacting the hacker. The Chinese mining pool had sent OP_RETURN messages, in which it asked the hacker to return their funds. The analytics platform stated that the firm spent 1.4 BTC across 1516 different transactions to send these messages.  Related Reading: Coinbase’s $400 Million Breach: What Really Happened And How Did Customers Get Exposed? Arkham claimed that the messages suggest that this was not a spoof from another hacker who had brute-forced the private keys. This appears to have been how LuBian was hacked in the first place, as the mining pool is said to have been using an algorithm to generate private keys that were susceptible to brute-force attacks.  Arkham revealed that LuBian still holds 11,886 BTC, currently worth around $1.35 billion. Meanwhile, the hacker still holds the stolen Bitcoin, which they are known to have last consolidated in another wallet in July 2024. Thanks to Bitcoin’s surge over the years, the LuBian hacker is now the 13th largest BTC holder based on Arkham data, ahead of the Mt. Gox hacker. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin may be stuck in limbo until October, according to crypto analyst Josh Olszewicz, who delivered a sobering assessment of the current market setup during his August 3 video analysis. The veteran trader described Bitcoin’s technicals and seasonal context as fundamentally uninviting, cautioning that “there’s nothing to do” until a more compelling risk-reward profile emerges—likely not before Q4. Bitcoin Bulls On Pause Olszewicz began by referencing last week’s Bollinger Band squeeze, a technical pattern that often precedes significant volatility. The squeeze resolved to the downside following a combination of weak US jobs data, negative ETF flows, and escalating geopolitical tensions—including reports of US nuclear submarine movements near Russia. “Markets certainly didn’t like that,” he remarked. The ETF flow data was central to his outlook. While Ethereum recently saw a resurgence in ETF inflows—contributing to one of its strongest Julys ever—Bitcoin’s flows flipped negative. “Flows, if anything, are what can save us in these two months of doldrums,” he said, referring to August and September. Yet, the current trajectory shows little promise of reversal. “The decision tree got a lot wider after breaking down,” he explained. “Because in the next two months, it’s generally junk. That’s just what it is.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Inflows To Binance Accelerate: Investor Behavior Shifts After Months Of Decline Olszewicz underscored the seasonal softness of Q3 for both equities and crypto, particularly emphasizing that historically, August and September are low-activity months. “Wake me up when September ends,” he quipped, reinforcing that traders should expect little from the market until October—a month historically associated with strong performance. “You do not want to miss October, even if October is negative 80%. This is about probabilities.” From a technical perspective, Olszewicz noted that Bitcoin remains in a vulnerable zone after stalling at the yearly pivot around $122,000. “Despite this great-looking chart pattern, we just stopped dead cold at $122,000,” he said. “If we break $122,000, the next level is $150,000—that’s psychological, it’s the measured move, and it’s the yearly pivot.” However, a more immediate concern lies in the potential for a bearish TK cross on the Ichimoku Cloud, which would trigger a sell signal in his system. “It’s a Pavlovian response. Bearish TK cross, you close your longs,” he said bluntly. “If we revisit 100 at this point, you’re going to get a lot of people talking about end-of-cycle stuff.” Related Reading: When Will The Bitcoin Correction End? The Support Level That Holds The Key The Commitment of Traders (COT) data from CME further amplifies the caution. “Commercials have dropped off a cliff,” Olszewicz warned. “Not something you want to see if you’re bullish.” The data suggests a sharp reduction in institutional positioning on the long side, adding another layer of headwind for the BTC price. Still, not all is lost. Olszewicz pointed to historical precedents, such as the difficult August and September of 2023 when Bitcoin was battered by Mt. Gox distributions and German government sell-offs. Despite the noise, Bitcoin rallied in October following the approval of spot ETFs and held above the cloud for an extended period. “It can look like the end for many, many reasons, and we can still make it,” he stressed. For traders looking to re-enter the market, he identified the $117K–$120K range as a potential re-entry zone if BTC can reclaim that area within the next two weeks. “It’s up to the bulls to hold this just flat for two weeks,” he said. “It shouldn’t be that hard to do if there are buyers in this market.” But until then, he remains on the sidelines: “There’s just nothing to do. It’s in no man’s land at the moment.” With Bitcoin in a technical holding pattern, negative flows, weak seasonality, and risk-off signals from legacy markets, Olszewicz made it clear that forcing trades in this environment could prove costly. His advice? Stay patient, stay liquid, and watch October. At press time, BTC traded at $114,517. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

After crashing below the $115,000 territory over the weekend, Bitcoin has reached an important level that could determine where the crypto market is headed next. Eventually, it comes down to the support levels and how much buying is going on to actually counter the effects of massive sell-offs that continue to drive down the price. However, if bulls are able to hold, then it could suggest there is enough momentum behind the cryptocurrency to push for new highs. Why Bitcoin Must Hold $100,000 In an analysis, crypto and market analyst MasterAnanda has pointed to the Bitcoin price already solidifying support that could help end the downtrend. Pointing to the current market decline, the analyst explains that the price is actually only down 8% after hitting its $123,000 all-time high back on July 14. This retrace is nothing out of the ordinary, which MasterAnanda refers to as “part of the normal workings of the market.” Related Reading: Satoshimeter Shows Where Bitcoin Price Is In This Cycle The current Bitcoin price fluctuations have not raised any alarms, as corrections are expected and are needed for the price to continue to rally. As the analyst explains, such fluctuations usually see the cryptocurrency reach new higher highs over the longer timeframe. Already, there is a lot of support for the Bitcoin price above the $110,000 level. This shows that while bears are pushing down hard, buying is still soaking up the dumped supply in the market. The analyst points to this support level as important, but highlights an even more important and stronger support level lying just above $100,000. This $100,000 level has remained a psychological level since it was first hit back in December 2024, becoming the level to hold if the market were to continue its uptrend. The crypto analyst explains that as long as the Bitcoin price remains above $100,000, then the bulls will continue to be in control. Related Reading: Market Cap Not A Hindrance To XRP Price Reaching $1,000, Expert Explains Why “After a few weeks, or several months, exactly as it happened last time, Bitcoin will go up. So you can expect retraces and corrections, but this is only short-term long-term we grow,” Master Ananda stated. However, there is still the possibility that the price does fall below the $100,000 level. In this case, it would mean an invalidation of the bullish thesis, and the analyst revealed that the short and mid-term analysis would need to be revisited and updated if this happens. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

The price of Bitcoin started the weekend—and the new month—in the worst possible way after falling below the $115,000 mark on Friday, August 1. This price decline seems to be worsening, as the premier cryptocurrency now sits beneath the $113,000 level following United States President Donald Trump’s recent nuclear threat. This recent movement has sparked market-wide conversations about the possibility of Bitcoin already reaching the price top in the current cycle. However, the consensus seems to be that the price of BTC still has the potential to embark on at least another leg up before finally reaching its cycle peak. BTC Could Revisit Former Highs In Near Term: Analyst In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, on-chain analyst Amr Taha built a bullish case for the price of Bitcoin following recent shifts in the Bitcoin market and the broader macro dynamics. In the BTC market context, the crypto pundit highlighted the changes in the coin’s spot volume on Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume. Related Reading: No Gold? No Problem: Why XRP Stands Strong On Its Own—Analyst Data from CryptoQuant shows that Binance registered over $7.6 billion daily BTC spot volume, marking one of the most significant increases in recent weeks. However, this notable spike in trading activity coincided with a dip in Bitcoin’s price from above $118,000 to around $113,000, signaling increased volatility and trader repositioning. Taha noted that, from a historical perspective, spot volume spikes of this magnitude—like the $7 billion surge seen on June 22—have often been correlated with local bottoms or major price reversals. Hence, the latest jump in the Bitcoin spot volume could represent renewed investor demand and be ultimately bullish for the market leader. In the macroeconomic context, Taha highlighted that the US Federal Reserve’s net liquidity also witnessed a significant increase on Friday, jumping from $6 trillion to $6.17 trillion. For more context, net liquidity is typically considered a significant macro driver for risk assets like Bitcoin. As such, a net liquidity spike implies more fiat money is circulating in the financial system, which can flow into equities, cryptocurrencies, and other risk-on assets. Hence, increases in the Fed’s net liquidity have historically coincided with bullish shifts across markets, as seen during late 2023 and early 2024. Ultimately, Taha concluded that the combination of the rise in Bitcoin spot volume on Binance and the Fed’s net liquidity could set the stage for bullish continuation for the flagship cryptocurrency. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $112,600, reflecting an over 1% decline in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Exchanges Receive 21,400 Bitcoin At A Loss From Short-Term Holders – Retail Capitulation? Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

The Bitcoin price kicked off the weekend in the worst way possible, falling beneath the $115,000 level for the first time since early July. Considering the supposed significance of this price mark, there have been questions about how much headroom the price of Bitcoin still has. The latest on-chain data suggests that the Bitcoin bull run might not be over just yet.   BTC Long-Term Holders Start Distributing  In an August 1st post on X, crypto analyst Joao Wedson reported that the Bitcoin cycle for the long-term holders seems to be coming to an end.  Related Reading: Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Just Turned Red For The First Time Since May — What This Means Wedson emphasized that, regardless of the ongoing excitement around ETFs, on-chain data shows a clear market shift. This shift signals that the cryptocurrency’s long-term holders are beginning to sell their coins, and, in large volumes, too.  According to the analyst, about 50% of the amount of Bitcoin held in exchange-traded funds has been sold by the LTHs. Regardless of this situation, however, Wedson expects the BTC bull market to go on for “at least 2 more months” and the altcoins’ bull cycle for three months.  Key Metrics Flash Warnings – But ‘Final Top’ Not Yet Seen Wedson backed his claim with four on-chain indicators, starting with the Coin Days Destroyed Terminal Adjusted Metric, which shows aged coins moving after being dormant for a long period of time. The analyst explained that there has been a significant movement of old BTC over the past two years. This, Wedson emphasized, triggered three major warning signs that coincide with a local top. Wedson also referenced the Reserve Risk Indicators to gauge current LTH conviction. This metric, from analysis, has entered a warning zone, as there is increased selling activity and hand exchanges.  Next, the online pundit quoted results from the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) Trend Signal. The SOPR measures whether coins (in this case, Bitcoin) are moved at a profit or loss. Wedson pointed out that this indicator recently flashed a bearish signal, which implies increased profit-taking in the market. Referring to it as ‘the most accurate metric in the world’ used to identify Bitcoin’s macro tops, the Bitcoin Cycle Market Top Prediction: Max Intersect SMA Model was put out last. Wedson highlighted that this metric is yet to flash any bearish signal. Using the chart below, the analyst explained that until the blue line reaches the $69,000 level, the final top is yet to arrive.  Ultimately, the analyst preached caution against panicking, as historical cycle patterns suggest that the final market top has yet to arrive. As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at about $113,052, reflecting a 1.2% price decline in the past 24 hours.  Related Reading: Record Bitcoin Prices Propel Strategy To First Profit In Six Quarters Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin’s latest push towards $120,000 fizzled into a stall-out that now resembles a “failed breakout zone,” according to market analytics firm Swissblock. In a July 31 thread, the firm said “momentum has failed to ignite,” arguing that realized-profit flows and an overwhelming share of coins sitting in profit have turned every bounce into an opportunity for supply to meet price. Profit-Taking Cools Bitcoin Rally Swissblock framed the setback as a pause rather than a breakdown. “Profit-taking is rising—but not as intense as late 2024,” the firm wrote, adding that the effect through July was “enough to cap upside and trigger consolidation.” The tone is cooling, not capitulatory: “Selling pressure is visible, but not extreme—think cooling, not capitulation.” That diagnosis hinges on on-chain readings of realized profit—an input that tends to expand into rallies as long-held coins are spent into strength—and a market structure in which bids are absorbing supply rather than being overwhelmed by it. Related Reading: Bitcoin New Investor Dominance Rises – No Signs of Mass Profit-Taking Yet The most striking datapoint in the thread is breadth of profitability: “96% of supply is in profit,” Swissblock noted, citing Glassnode. That ratio is historically consistent with late-cycle euphoria, but it is also mechanically self-limiting; when nearly all holders are in the green, latent sell pressure rises because “unrealized gains are tempting sellers.” As Swissblock put it, “Strong holders remain. But unrealized gains are tempting sellers. Until demand returns, each bounce invites supply.” The firm contends the broader trend “is intact—but momentum needs a reset.” Beyond on-chain realized flows, the firm’s composite fundamentals read neutral with improving liquidity. “BTC fundamentals are strong and stable,” Swissblock wrote, pointing to a Bitcoin Fundamentals Index reading of 60 (neutral), “Network Growth is cooling,” and “Liquidity is recovering.” That mix typically favors range behavior over directional surges—“a consolidation-supportive environment,” as the post put it—in which Bitcoin “can grind sideways longer—until it’s ready to break with conviction.” The implication is that the market’s “failed breakout” risk reflects timing rather than trend reversal: positioning and liquidity are not aligned yet for a sustained continuation. Related Reading: Weak Bitcoin Treasury Companies Will Be Crushed By Bear Market, Insider Warns The cross-asset context is equally nuanced. “Altseason is active—but under stress,” Swissblock wrote, observing that while “$ETH continues to outperform BTC structurally, holding up better in this pullback,” most altcoins are sagging, with “only 5% of top 100 showing positive impulse.” That thinning rotation underlines the selectivity of risk appetite and the fragility of momentum outside of the largest names. Historically, that pattern often precedes a decisive move in Bitcoin that either recharges the rotation or breaks it. Swissblock’s concluding assessment leans cautiously constructive. “Profit-taking is fading and selling pressure is being absorbed. BTC is preparing for breakout—but momentum needs to align.” Until that alignment arrives, the firm expects a grind: bids continue to meet supply from profitable holders, realized profits moderate, and liquidity improves in the background. If and when Bitcoin flips momentum back to positive, Swissblock argues, the spillover could be forceful: “While BTC grinds sideways, watch for the moment it flips—ETH and altcoins will likely explode upward when it does.” In short, today’s dip to $115,000 looks less like an outright rejection than a test of the market’s ability to digest profits and reset momentum without damage to the underlying uptrend. With 96% of supply in profit and breadth compressed, the next impulse likely hinges on whether liquidity and demand can reassert themselves before profit-taking reaccelerates. For now, Swissblock’s message is clear: the breakout will need to be earned, not assumed. At press time, BTC traded at $115,452. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Coinbase’s Bitcoin premium has dropped into negative territory for the first time since May. This development is bearish for the flagship crypto as it suggests that demand from the U.S. may be waning.  Coinbase Bitcoin Premium In The Red CryptoQuant data shows that the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index is at -0.00254829, marking the first time it has been in the red since May 29, when it was at -0.01626105. This Index tracks the difference between the Bitcoin price on Coinbase and the Bitcoin price on Binance. It is also used to gauge the spot demand for BTC from institutional and retail investors in the U.S.  Related Reading: Finance Author Warns Of Great Depression Style Crash, Is Bitcoin The Answer? As such, this development suggests that the demand for BTC among U.S. investors is currently low. This is significant considering that Bitcoin rallies to new highs have coincided with the Coinbase premium being in positive territory. This highlights how much demand from the U.S. contributes to BTC’s uptrend.  In recent times, this demand has mainly come from the Bitcoin ETFs, with Coinbase acting as a custodian for eight out of the eleven spot BTC funds. Notably, the drop in the Coinbase Bitcoin premium coincides with the drop in the net inflows and increase in outflows from these funds.  SoSo Value data shows that these funds recorded net outflows of $114.83 million on July 31. Before now, they had also gone on a 3-day streak of consecutive net outflows between July 21 and 23. This indicates a wave of profit-taking among these investors, especially following the recent Bitcoin rally to a new all-time high (ATH) of $123,000.  In an X post, CryptoQuant also confirmed this wave of profit-taking. The platform revealed that Bitcoin just saw its third major profit-taking wave of this bull run. Realized profits spiked to between $6 and $8 billion in late July, similar to March and December 2024 peaks. CryptoQuant added that it was new whales who led the selling above $120,000.  New Investor Dominance Is Growing With Market In Stable Condition In a CryptoQuant on-chain analysis, analyst Axel revealed that new investor dominance is growing and that the market is still stable in this late Bitcoin bull cycle phase. He alluded to the demand and supply between new and old investors metric and noted that the peaks of 64% in March 2024 and 72% in December 2024 coincided with local price maximums.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Market Is Over? Analyst Calls 50% Crash To $60,000 The analyst noted that during those periods, the influx of new liquidity into Bitcoin was exhausted, and old holders began actively taking profits. However, this time is different, as the current value of the demand and supply between new and old investors is 30%, which is only half of the overheated levels.  Axel added that the trend is directed upward as the cumulative activity of young coins has been steadily growing since July 2024. The analyst remarked that this indicates that a notable layer of new buyers is entering the Bitcoin market. Meanwhile, pressure from the old holders is not yet critical.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $115,550, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The latest What Bitcoin Did episode, hosted by Danny Knowles, turns squarely to the question stalking one of the market’s hottest trades: can the boom in “Bitcoin treasury” companies withstand the next prolonged drawdown? Dylan LeClair, who helps lead the Bitcoin strategy at Tokyo-listed MetaPlanet, argues the answer rests less on ideology than on balance-sheet engineering, scale, and the willingness to endure volatility without blinking. “There’s sort of a ‘gradually then suddenly’ inflection point,” he said, describing how corporate exposure to Bitcoin has migrated from gimmick to boardroom agenda. The shift, in his view, is irreversible, but survival “is a constant fight with gravity” for firms that trade at premiums to their net asset value (NAV). Why Some Bitcoin Treasury Companies Won’t Survive The Bear Market LeClair’s thesis starts with market structure. Bitcoin is homogeneous collateral, but public equities are not. Liquidity, index inclusion, and the absolute size of a balance sheet produce a “winner-take-most dynamic,” he said. Even where two issuers have the same headline premium, the gravity of size changes the calculus: “Strategy is at a measly 1.8x premium, but the premium is like $50 billion of value,” he noted, contrasting that with the far smaller absolute premia attached to emerging players. Premiums compress mechanically as companies buy more Bitcoin or as the price rises, he added, which means maintaining a rich multiple demands ever-larger inflows of capital. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin’s Final Leg Is Near – Time To Be ‘Cautiously Optimistic’? Pressed on what a bear market would do to those premia, LeClair separated cycle folklore from funding reality. He does not buy the inevitability of a 70% “pack it up for three years” drawdown as a base case, arguing the market now tends to reprice and then chop for extended periods. But he is unequivocal that a risk-off phase would punish sloppy balance sheets. “There will be pressure on MNAVs… Are you levered? With what sort of debt? Do you have secured debt where your Bitcoin’s encumbered? Do you have debt due in one year?” By contrast, he pointed to perpetual preferred equity—dividends but “no debt maturity ever”—as a structure that removes the most dangerous cliff: “With the prefs it’s like, no, we’re not selling actually ever.” For MetaPlanet, he framed risk management in deliberately dull terms: “We’re focused on staying… pristine, maintaining maximal flexibility.” He cited a “BTC rating” of roughly 16.5x—“we have 16 bucks of Bitcoin for every dollar of debt”—as intentional dry powder rather than under-optimization. The stress test, to him, is behavioral as much as financial: can management “eat the 70% bear market” if it comes? He expects casualties. “It’s naive to say that every company that adopts Bitcoin will be a success… there will be failures. There will be a bankruptcy… it’s a brutal, competitive world.” Where, then, is the moat? Not merely in being public, he argued, but in graduating from equity capital to the far deeper fixed-income markets. Convertibles provided early leverage—but at a cost he described with traderly bluntness. Convertible desks “woo you,” then short aggressively to hedge, “dampening the volatility” that many treasury companies actually want in their common stock. The more durable solution, he said, is permanent capital in the form of preferred equity. Here he credits Michael Saylor’s Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) with reaching “escape velocity,” pioneering a layered capital stack that now includes a new variable-rate preferred dubbed “Stretch” (ticker: STRC). Stretch is engineered to keep trading near $100 by adjusting its dividend and, if necessary, issuing new shares or calling them at $101—“a pretty genius feat of financial engineering,” in LeClair’s words, because it behaves like a cash-equivalent for investors without imposing maturity cliffs on the issuer. Strategy priced STRC in late July with an initial dividend framework and then closed a multi-billion-dollar offering, with the company describing the instrument as variable-rate, perpetual preferred stock designed to pay monthly and target trading near par. LeClair sees this as the practical realization of a long-standing ambition in crypto finance: a dollar-like instrument tied to Bitcoin collateral, without forcing asset sales in stress. Unlike algorithmic stablecoins that were vulnerable to redemptions spirals, Strategy’s preferreds are senior to common equity and massively over-collateralized by transparent Bitcoin holdings, he argued. External observers have reached similar high-level descriptions: Strategy’s own materials emphasize STRC’s variable dividend on a stated $100 amount, while coverage in financial media notes the offering’s explicit aim to hew to par and its place alongside earlier preferreds (Stride, Strike, Strife) in a capital stack backed by tens of billions in unencumbered Bitcoin. All of this feeds the consolidation logic LeClair expects in a downturn. Preferreds, he said, are both offensive and defensive. Offensively, they add dry powder to buy more BTC or even buy back common if MNAV compresses, reversing flow against short sellers “playing this spread game.” Defensively, they function as an “MNAV defense mechanism,” easing reliance on converts and the gamma-trading that “neuters volatility” in the common. If markets turn, he anticipates classic Wall Street behavior: opportunists will “clear off some debt, buy the Bitcoin at a discount.” MetaPlanet, he added, is not seeking to be a roll-up; the focus is “laser” on BTC itself. Related Reading: Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase Signals Market Sits Between Accumulation And Distribution Could Anyone Catch Strategy? LeClair is diplomatic on peers bringing large private Bitcoin pools public, calling it “overwhelmingly positive” for the asset. But his competitive assessment is stark: “I think Saylor’s reached escape velocity… a 600,000 Bitcoin lead is pretty insurmountable.” To contextualize that claim with public data, Strategy now reports roughly 629,000 BTC, giving it a commanding lead over other corporate holders. He adds that only a mega-cap with a decisive pivot—“if Mark Zuckerberg took the orange pill tomorrow”—could realistically challenge, which he deems unlikely given competing priorities like AI. LeClair is no maximalist about smooth sailing. Premiums will ebb. Funding windows will open and slam shut. Some firms, he warned, are “cosplaying as Bitcoiners” and may abandon discipline at the first whiff of pain. He was also frank about the sector’s self-selection bias: during the good times, new “treasury companies” appear by the week; the real filter arrives when prices fall and maturities near. “The times are good now… there will be a cycle. That’s what will separate the men from the boys,” he said. Survival, in his telling, comes down to a few non-negotiables: unencumbered collateral, long-dated or perpetual liabilities, and management that will not sell into downdrafts. Yet his broader message is that the game board has changed. Corporate adoption remains “early innings,” he said, because “the rest of the world actually simply doesn’t care” yet. The depth of the credit markets—and the emergence of Bitcoin-backed instruments palatable to those markets—may be what finally does the persuading. “If Bitcoin is going to eat the world… it has to get to all these different pools of capital.” Treasury companies that make that leap, he believes, can not only endure a bear market—they can use it to widen the gap. At press time, BTC traded at $118,100. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

In a post shared on TradingView, crypto analyst Xanrox argues that the current bullish cycle is nearly over, pointing to a potential downtrend that would see the Bitcoin price crash to $60,000. This analysis comes as Bitcoin is trading within a very quiet phase, prompting many crypto traders and crypto analysts to start reassessing its next direction. Xanrox Predicts Bitcoin Top At $122,000 And Crash To $60,000 The world’s largest cryptocurrency has been hovering just above the $118,000 price level for several days now, struggling to break decisively above this zone but also showing no major signs of a breakdown. Despite this consolidation, market sentiment remains upbeat.  Related Reading: This Indicator Has Perfectly Called Bitcoin Cycle Tops, Here’s What It’s Saying Now The crypto fear and greed index continues to flash “greed,” and most analysts still argue that Bitcoin is setting up for another leg upward. However, an interesting technical outlook challenges this bullish consensus and issues a crash warning. Notably, crypto analyst Xanrox identified a sell signal on the weekly candlestick timeframe chart after Bitcoin reached the 1.618 Fibonacci extension and touched the long-term 2017–2021–2025 trendline, with the latest touch of the trendline aligning to Bitcoin’s recent all-time high at $122,800.  According to him, the most recent touch of this trendline might be the top of the current cycle. Furthermore, he noted that the Elliott Wave structure has now completed Wave 5 of a rising wedge and a larger Wave 5 impulse move. As such, a corrective phase is about to start. What’s Next For Bitcoin? As shown in the chart below, the next major move could be at least a 50% decline, with Bitcoin dropping to around $60,000 by 2026. This projection is based on previous price action, where Bitcoin embarked on 84% and 77% price crashes after touching the trendline in 2017 and 2021, respectively. The technical setup also aligns with statistical data that shows August and September historically bring increased selling pressure. Xanrox noted that while traders can wait for further confirmation, such as a break below the 50-week moving average, he personally believes the top is already in. Large institutions and professional investors pay close attention to the 20, 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short Squeeze Incoming As Market Makers Set Trap To Go Above $123,000 Xanrox’s outlook is a sharp contrast to the prevailing sentiment among crypto investors. Bitcoin’s current structure is still showing strength on higher timeframes, and several other analysts see the recent consolidation between $117,000 and $119,000 as a base for continuation toward $130,000 and beyond.  The lack of major sell-side volume, the firm hold above the $118,000 price level and the 50-week moving average, and bullish indicators across altcoins like Ethereum are on-chain signals that the Bitcoin price still has more room to run before it reaches a peak price this cycle. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin faced renewed selling pressure on Wednesday, falling 0.45% to $118,446.5 as traders braced for pivotal macroeconomic events. Related Reading: Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase Signals Market Sits Between Accumulation And Distribution This drop comes amid heightened caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s July policy meeting and the looming implementation of steep U.S. tariffs on August 1. Despite a strong July performance, the flagship cryptocurrency remains under pressure due to profit-taking and broader market uncertainty. The decline follows a stretch of consolidation near the $120,000 level, a psychological resistance zone that prompted selling from long-term holders and institutions. Even Strategy’s historic $2.5 billion Bitcoin acquisition, adding 21,021 BTC, failed to spark a rally, suggesting investor fatigue and risk aversion are taking hold. BTC's price trends to the upside on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview Fed Decision and Tariff Jitters Weigh on Sentiment Investor focus remains fixed on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, with expectations that the central bank will hold interest rates steady. However, analysts remain divided on the Fed’s longer-term stance amid calls for cuts by President Trump and signs of economic cooling. Market concerns are further amplified by impending U.S. tariffs ranging from 15% to 50%, set to take effect at the start of August. Although tariffs don’t directly impact crypto prices, they influence global sentiment and contribute to increased volatility across risk assets like Bitcoin. Meanwhile, the market is also awaiting a White House report that could outline the U.S. government’s Bitcoin holdings and clarify its stance on establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Altcoins Follow Bitcoin’s Retreat Bitcoin’s pullback echoed throughout the broader crypto market. Ethereum, the leading altcoin was one of the assets that made a dip, falling by over 2% to $3,781.5. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Could Rise To $9,000 This Cycle, Eyes Breakout Against Bitcoin This caused a ripple in the altcoin space with some of the major names recording similar drops: XRP fell 0.6% to $3.1290 Solana dropped 2.1% Cardano declined 1.6% Dogecoin slipped 2.2% $TRUMP coin shed 2.6% With volatility indicators tightening, analysts warn that a significant price move may be imminent as the market awaits the Fed’s outcome and macroeconomic clarity. Cover image from ChatGPT, chart from Tradingview

As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade within its local range, the cryptocurrency eyes a trend continuation, aiming to go on uncharted territory again. Despite the bullish setup, an analyst suggests that investors start to become more cautious as the weeks progress. Related Reading: Injective Targets $25 Amid Crucial Breakout Attempt – New Highs In Sight? Bitcoin Bull Flag To Determine Next Move Since the early July breakout, Bitcoin has been trading within a crucial price range, hitting its latest all-time high during this period. The flagship crypto has been hovering between $114,000-$120,000, retesting the local lows on Friday before recovering the range highs over the weekend. Amid this performance, market watcher Crypto Patel highlighted that BTC is trading inside a bull flag formation in the 4H chart, which could lead to an 8%-12% move once broken out. According to the analysis, if the cryptocurrency successfully breaks above the pattern’s descending resistance, near the $120,000 mark, its price could see a surge toward the $130,000 barrier for the first time. On the contrary, a rejection from this area could send Bitcoin toward the bull flag’s support, around $114,000, once more. The analyst warned that despite the key support’s strength, a breakdown below this level would invalidate the bullish pattern and risk a drop to the $100,000 level or below. In a Monday analysis, analyst Rekt Capital also discussed BTC’s bull flag in the weekly chart. He noted that Bitcoin closed last week above the bull flag top despite the Friday drop, “preparing and positioning itself for a confirmed breakout.” Therefore, the start-of-week pullback could be considered a volatile post-breakout retest if the cryptocurrency closes this week above $119,200. The analyst explained that “price has an entire week to do that; in fact, price could downside wick below the Bull Flag bottom to form a potential Diamond-Shaped candlestick formation in the downside wicks.” “It makes sense why price needs to dip,” he detailed, “it also makes sense for price to dip via the perspective of the newly formed Weekly CME Gap.” BTC’s Rally Running Out Of Time? As Daan Crypto Trades pointed out, BTC opened the week with a new CME Gap between $118,297 and $120,035, which was immediately closed on Monday, as the price retraced to the $117,000 mark. Notably, the flagship crypto has been closing its CME Gaps at the start of the week for the past five weeks, “building quite the streak at this point.” To the trader, “the longer this goes on, the more of a self-fulfilling prophecy it will become.” Rekt Capital also highlighted that Bitcoin has entered Week 4 of its second Price Discovery Uptrend, asserting that if BTC confirms a breakout from the weekly bullish flag, then “trend continuation in Price Discovery Uptrend 2 would be achieved.” Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Rally Might Be Running on Fumes, Analyst Warns of August Turning Point He warned that the second Uptrend could not last much longer. According to the analyst, the trend continuation could fail in the coming weeks, as the cryptocurrency transitions into the Weeks 5-7 of this phase. It’s worth noting that this cycle’s first Price Discovery uptrend lasted around 6-7 weeks before reaching the local top. As a result, he considers it “would be conservative thus to become increasingly cautious as time goes on,” starting to become “cautiously optimistic” from this week on. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $117,161, a 2.1% decline in the weekly timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com