THE LATEST CRYPTO NEWS

Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff, who declared in 2018 that Bitcoin was more likely to crash to $100 than rally to $100,000, has returned. He indirectly admitted he was wrong and outlined reasons why his prediction fell through.  Harvard Economist Breaks Silence On Missed Bitcoin Prediction In an X post, Rogoff identified himself as the Harvard economist who said that Bitcoin was more likely to be worth $100 than $100,000. He then went on to comment on what he missed when he made this prediction. First, the economist said that he was far too optimistic about the U.S. coming to its senses about sensible crypto regulation.  Related Reading: Crypto Founder Predicts The Collapse Of Bitcoin In This Timeframe Rogoff, who was the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), indicated that the Donald Trump administration has gone about Bitcoin and crypto regulation in the wrong way. He questioned why policymakers would want to facilitate tax evasion and illegal activities, likely in reference to regulations such as the GENIUS Act, which have provided regulatory clarity.  It is worth mentioning that one of the reasons the Harvard economist had predicted that Bitcoin was more likely to go to $100 was based on his belief that government regulation would trigger lower prices. He had made this prediction when BTC was trading at around $11,000. Rogoff claimed back then that the flagship crypto needed global regulation to crack down on its use for money laundering.  The former IMF chief believed that if this regulation took away the possibility of money laundering and tax evasion, then Bitcoin’s actual use cases for transactions were very small. As such, he was banking on BTC lacking any demand, which would drive its price lower rather than higher.  However, that hasn’t been the case as government regulation has only boosted Bitcoin’s demand. The flagship crypto rallied to $100,000, a price level Rogoff said it won’t reach, for the first time last year following Donald Trump’s victory. Meanwhile, BTC has reached new highs on the back of regulatory clarity, including its rally to a previous all-time high (ATH) just before the passage of the GENIUS Act last month.  Further Reasons For The Missed Prediction The Harvard economist also stated that he did not appreciate how Bitcoin would compete with fiat currencies to serve as the transaction medium of choice in the $20 trillion global underground economy. He further remarked that this demand puts a floor on its price.  Related Reading: Two Scenarios Map Out Bitcoin Price Crash After Recovery In addition to being a transaction medium of choice, BTC has also gained a reputation as a store of value, which has created demand for it among traditional finance (TradFi) investors. These investors have gained exposure to Bitcoin mainly through the ETFs. Interestingly, Harvard recently revealed a $117 million stake in BlackRock’s BTC ETF.  Lastly, Rogoff said that he did not anticipate a situation where regulators, especially the regulator in chief, would be able to brazenly hold hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars in crypto without consequence, considering the “blatant conflict of interest.”  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $113,600, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s near-term path, argues macro commentator Bruce Florian–founder of the Bitcoin Self-Custody Company Schwarzberg and a bestselling author–is being set far from crypto order books and deep inside the US money markets, where a once-enormous pool of excess cash has finally run dry. In a thread on X, Florian frames the Federal Reserve’s overnight reverse repo facility (RRP) as the “surplus pot” that quietly powered asset prices for two years—and now, with that pot empty, he believes markets are about to feel the unfiltered weight of tighter liquidity. Why This Means Pain For Bitcoin Florian starts by locating the inflection point: “The reverse repo facility (RRP) is at its lowest level in four years.” He then walks through the basic plumbing. During the pandemic response, “so much money was printed… there were fewer assets than excess cash,” so banks and money funds “parked [it] with the Fed in the RRP. Safe and earning interest.” As that pool drained, it didn’t disappear—it “was continuously pumped into the market over the last few years. Mainly into government bonds.” In his accounting, “around $2 trillion in excess liquidity from 2020/21 flowed into the market over the last 24 months,” keeping valuations buoyant despite higher policy rates and formal quantitative tightening. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Treasury Bubble Popping? Expert Answers The metaphor he uses is deliberate and evocative: “It’s like a tanker traveling at full speed. Even if you turn off the engine, it will continue to drift for many kilometers, solely due to the speed it has built up.” For Florian, that drift—the lagged effect of past liquidity—is ending. “Now the propulsion is gone. The surplus pot is empty, and the tanker comes to a standstill.” He connects that mechanical turn to the looming supply calendar: “There are still trillions in government bonds that need to be purchased in the coming months and years.” With the RRP no longer acting as a buyer of first resort, “we will feel the full brunt of the reduced liquidity since 2022.” The near-term cross-asset message is unambiguous. “This is bad for stocks, bonds, and Bitcoin in the short term,” he writes, adding that “stocks and Bitcoin can afford short respites… bonds cannot.” The constraint, in his view, is structural: “The US bond market is the most important market in the world.” If the RRP isn’t there to absorb cash and recycle it into Treasuries, “bond yields will continue to rise to attract investors.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run Hinges On Trump’s Pick For Fed Chair: Analyst That dynamic, he warns, collides with political and macro limits: “interest rates are already far too high for the current administration.” His base case is that the central bank ultimately has to step in: “The Fed will likely intervene and rescue the bond market by providing new liquidity.” The path from here is “unclear… in the short term,” but the contours of the pressure are, in his telling, set by the plumbing. Florian repeatedly stresses that any turbulence should not be misread as a Bitcoin-native failure. “The turmoil is once again coming from the fiat system, not from Bitcoin. Bitcoin merely reflects this development with its volatility.” That framing places Bitcoin downstream of dollar liquidity rather than in opposition to it. The market, he cautions, will “do everything it can to drive you out of your position.” His counsel for positioning is psychological as much as financial: “If you know what you own, you can stay relaxed.” The long-term thesis remains intact in his mind—“Remember where Bitcoin is headed as an ideal store of value”—but navigating the next phase requires horizon discipline: “Because if you keep your eyes on the horizon, you won’t get seasick.” At press time, BTC traded at $113,736. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has entered a precarious situation after falling below $114,000, and sellers continue to mount pressure on it. This comes after a rise to new all-time highs, and sticking to previous trends, Bitcoin looks to be testing previous support levels before continuing on its journey. However, as the price continues to struggle, crypto analyst Xanrox has predicted that a crash is in the future, warning investors to beware of investing in BTC. Bitcoin Shows Signs Of Crash In the analysis, Xanrox pointed out that the Bitcoin price is already primed to crash in the short term. This is due to the appearance of a Fair Value Gap (FVG) that is yet to be filled, and the price is already pulling back down toward this level to fill it again. Related Reading: Dogecoin Targets $1.25, But This 170% Move Is The Start The first crash is expected to send Bitcoin to the $110,600 level, which is a previous peak. At this junction, there is a lot of support, and the Bitcoin price will probably resist the crash here for a while before continuing. The crypto analyst also explained that the strong support is due to the fact that the $110,600 level has never been tested previously. There is also the 100-day moving average standing around this level, and this, too, provides support for the price. Given this, the crypto analyst believes that this would be good support for investors looking for intraday trades as the price hits $110,600. Moving forward, Xanrox expects the price to eventually break below $110,600, and the next major level is sitting at $104,800. This is also a strong support level because there is a range and a bull flag here. The most important thing of all is that the fair value gap is sitting at this level to be filled. “The previous major swing low of 105,130 is something where people put a lot of stop losses below it,” the analyst said. “That’s a magnet for whales; they probably want to buy here.” Why Price Is Headed Below $60,000 In light of the current bearish trend, Xanrox predicts that the Bitcoin price will eventually crash below $60,000. This is as a result of the completion of the five waves of the Elliot Wave Theory, suggesting that the market is now heading into the bearish portion. Related Reading: Ripple Enters Agreement With Gemini Ahead Of IPO — Here’s What We Know The analysis also points to the break below the trendline that began back in April, marked in red. This trendline has held as the price has climbed, not breaking in five months since then. Therefore, the current break suggests a continuation of the bearish rally. As for when the Bitcoin price will fall below $60,000, the analyst predicts that this will happen in 2026. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

In a thread on August 19, analyst Miles Deutscher argued that MicroStrategy’s market-implied net asset value (mNAV) premium—the core gear in Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin acquisition flywheel—has compressed sharply, weakening the feedback loop that helped the company outpace Bitcoin through most of the cycle. “Michael Saylor built the craziest BTC flywheel in history. But his buying power is starting to fade. The market is now asking one question: ‘Is the BTC treasury bubble finally popping?’” MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Premium Is Fading Deutscher grounds the discussion in how investors currently value MicroStrategy. “People often overlook that MicroStrategy has a legacy software business, which continues to generate revenue. However, MicroStrategy has essentially become a company whose valuation is primarily influenced by its BTC holdings. The entire system is powered by mNAV (Market-Implied NAV).” In practical terms, the mNAV multiple is the premium investors pay over the company’s look-through Bitcoin value to access leveraged BTC exposure via MSTR. “An mNAV of ~1.58x means the market is paying a 58% premium for their BTC.” According to Deutscher, that premium “was once a 3.4x mNAV” when Bitcoin was surging, but it has “now decreased to 1.58x. Demand is slowing down.” In other words, what had been a powerful flywheel—high premium enabling cheap equity issuance that funded more Bitcoin purchases, which in turn kept NAV rising and the premium elevated—now spins with much less torque. Related Reading: Crypto Founder Predicts The Collapse Of Bitcoin In This Timeframe That shift intersected with a contentious corporate action. “Recently, Saylor sparked controversy by revealing that Strategy had revised its MSTR Equity ATM Guidance to offer greater ‘flexibility’ in executing its capital markets strategy.” The implication, Deutscher argues, is that greater issuance flexibility “may dilute shareholder value and increase financial risk tied to Bitcoin’s volatility.” He notes that “the market is quite divided” on the change. On the constructive side, he quotes @thedefivillain’s take—“Slower concentration of supply in Saylor’s hands,” “Greater leverage to justify mNAV,” and “Reduced buying pressure for BTC in dollar terms”—as reasons the revision could ultimately be benign. But critics worry about “the possibility of a ‘death spiral.’ The removal of the 2.5x mNAV safeguard for equity issuance may allow MicroStrategy to sell shares at lower valuations.” Reflexivity, in Deutscher’s telling, is the operative risk factor: “Reflexivity is a brutal force that operates in both directions.” A Hypothetical Scenario Deutscher then sets up a stress-test to illustrate how that reflexivity could bite if Bitcoin weakens and the premium compresses to parity. “If BTC’s price drops 20% and MicroStrategy’s mNAV multiple falls to 1.0x, the stock might plummet by 46.5%.” He walks through the arithmetic from a notional baseline of $115,000 per BTC, which on a 20% decline would fall to $92,000. On MicroStrategy’s “226,331 BTC,” he calculates that would put look-through NAV at $20.82 billion. To align an mNAV of exactly 1.0x, he backs into enterprise value and market cap under that scenario: “Starting with an enterprise value of $20.82 billion, we subtract MicroStrategy’s $2.2 billion in debt and add its $0.1 billion in cash. This calculation unveils the company’s market cap, hitting $18.72 billion, a significant pullback from its original $35 billion market cap.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run Hinges On Trump’s Pick For Fed Chair: Analyst The conclusion he draws from the modeled path—BTC −20% to ~$92,000, mNAV → 1.0x, MSTR market cap −46.5%—is that MicroStrategy’s equity remains a leveraged instrument with an outcome path that can be materially worse than Bitcoin itself when the premium compresses. Beyond the scenario math, Deutscher links recent spot price action to changing marginal demand. “I think BTC’s recent weakness can be attributed to the market starting to price in reduced Saylor demand/tail potential risk of the revised ATM guidance.” In parallel, he highlights how the proliferation of spot ETFs erodes the original rationale for paying a large listed-company premium to own BTC “beta”: “Spot Bitcoin ETFs are plentiful now. Why would you pay a 58% premium for MSTR’s leveraged exposure when you can grab IBIT at a clean ~1.0x NAV?” By his framing, the mNAV premium itself “was indicative of the market’s view that MSTR was going to outperform BTC.” With that view fading, the premium looks less like an enduring structural feature and more like a belief-sensitive variable. “In my opinion, the MSTR premium is essentially a gamble. You’re betting on three fragile things: unwavering market confidence, open capital markets, and Saylor’s leadership. If any of those pillars start to wobble, the premium collapses.” At press time, BTC traded at $113,624. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s core promise of decentralization is facing a major test. Two pools now control a majority share of the network’s hashrate. This level of concentration challenges the very foundation of Bitcoin’s decentralized ethos. In an X post, Jacob King, the CEO of WhaleWire, stated that two mining pools now control more than 51% of the Bitcoin network’s computing power. He warns that the stage is set for a potential 51% attack, which could completely undermine the BTC security model and trigger catastrophic fallout across the crypto ecosystem. What This Means For Bitcoin’s Future Stability For context, the last time this occurred was in 2014 with mining pool GHash.io. The backlash was swift, while community panic spread, developers sounded alarms, and GHash was forced to voluntarily reduce its hashrate. Still, the damage was done, and BTC plunged over 87% in the months that followed, entering one of its deepest bear markets.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Jackpot: Solo Bitcoin Miner Nets $360,000 To Beat 1 In 800 Odds Furthermore, GHash faced relentless DDoS attacks, intense scrutiny from maxis, and eventually shut down in 2015. King argues that history is repeating itself. While the firm tried to cover up centralization risks, the truth is back in plain sight. According to King, this brewing crisis could be the pin that pops what he calls BTC’s mega-bubble. OTC data shows that many large whales are already rotating out of BTC and preparing for an exit ahead of potential chaos. In his opinion, even Michael Saylor, long hailed as a BTC guru by maximalists, appears to be shifting his stance.  King claims that Saylor has quietly prepared a strategy to dilute and dump his holdings and abandon his earlier promises of long-term conviction, as he knows exactly what’s coming. He also noted that the entire market structure rests on three fragile pillars: the fraudulent stablecoin inflows, retail-driven FOMO, and carefully engineered narratives pushed by the maxi cartel. Once reality pierces through these illusions and centralization risks are fully acknowledged, the collapse will be faster and more brutal than ever. BTC Price Action Fiege_max shared a bold assessment that there was an 85% chance that BTC had already peaked at $123,000. Currently, the analyst is increasingly confident that the top for BTC is indeed achieved. While BTC has had an incredible year of relentless uptrend, which is quite different from 2021, there was never truly a full-fledged altseason. However, the market still offered plenty of opportunities along the way.  Related Reading: Is Bitcoin’s Bull Run Nearing Its End? Long-Term Holders Send Mixed Signals The analyst warned that traders should prepare for their exit and not let greed dictate their decisions, as the easy mode is behind us, and the market is entering a long period of hard mode. Fiege_max clarifies that this does not mean the market is finished or that prices will collapse in a straight line. Instead, he urges realistic targets. He frames his commentary as a matter of perspective and objectivity on his viewpoint as a trader, and hopes it pushes the idea that the market is drawing to a close. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

After hitting a new all-time high above $24,000, Bitcoin has been unable to hold up the momentum and has spiraled back down again. In light of this, crypto analyst Doctor Profit has predicted that the Bitcoin price is actually going to fall below $100,000. If this prediction is accurate, then it means that this is only the beginning of the BTC decline, with more crashes expected to happen in the near future. September Will Be Bearish For Bitcoin In an X (formerly Twitter) post, the crypto analyst points out that the Bitcoin price crash is far from done. This is especially as the month of August is racing toward an end after the start of the month had been more bullish than not. With the new month already swimming into view, the analyst expects Bitcoin to break below a major psychological level. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Crash: $2 Billion In Losses Is Waiting For Traders At This Level Doctor Profit explains that the Bitcoin price correction is expected to continue and will bleed into the month of September. What’s more important is the prediction that Bitcoin will eventually crash below $100,000 in September, suggesting that the month will be dominated by bears. If this happens, it would be the first time since June that the price has crashed below $100,000. So far, the cryptocurrency has spent two consecutive months above the $100,000 level, suggesting that this has become a major support level for the price. Despite this prediction, the crypto analyst does not believe that the bull market is over. If anything, the crash below $100,000 is expected to only be a temporary correction before the move continues. After the crash, Doctor Profit says the bull market will then continue again. Historical Data Supports Bearish Month Doctor Profit’s prediction that the month of September will be bearish for Bitcoin and see the price crash below $100,000 is supported by historical data showing that the digital asset has usually performed poorly for the month. Using data from the CryptoRank website, we can see that 9 out of the last 14 years have seen the Bitcoin price close out the month of September in the red. Related Reading: Key Levels To Watch In Light Of XRP’s Macro Future The month is, on average, the worst in terms of average returns for BTC investors. It shows an average return of -5.58% over the last 14 years, and a median return of -4.43%. This means that the month of September is established as a bearish month for Bitcoin, and if this trend holds, then it is likely that the price will crash again. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s next major leg higher may depend less on halving lore and more on personnel politics in Washington. In an August 18 market note on X, economist and crypto analyst Alex Krüger argued that the cycle’s duration will be set by the Federal Reserve’s leadership change—specifically, who President Trump nominates to replace Jerome Powell—rather than by any fixed four-year pattern. “I have a high degree of confidence this cycle is not over because I am expecting changes in the Fed to bring on considerably more dovish monetary policy, which is not priced in at the moment; this would start to get priced in once Trump announces his nominee to replace Powell,” Krüger wrote. Bitcoin Bull Run Depends On New Fed Chair Krüger dismissed worries that a pullback from record highs marks the top, calling it “remarkable how every time you get a correction from new highs so many people start to fret about the cycle top. Over and over again.” He reiterated his longstanding critique of the halving-cycle orthodoxy: “The concept of a 4 year cycle in 2025 is misplaced; [it] died two cycles ago, and 2021 was a coincidence, as it was macro driven.” In his view, the last cycle ended because the Fed turned “ultra-hawkish in January 2022,” not because of any endogenous Bitcoin dynamic. Related Reading: Crypto Braces For Impact As JPow’s Jackson Hole Speech Looms The nomination clock is visible. Powell’s current four-year term as chair ends on May 15, 2026, and reporting over the past two weeks indicates the White House has narrowed a shortlist to “three or four” names, with an announcement potentially coming sooner than expected. Candidates floated in mainstream coverage include former Fed governor Kevin Warsh and NEC Director Kevin Hassett among others, underscoring the market’s focus on how dovish—or not—the next chair might be. In the nearer term, the policy calendar still drives the tape. Powell’s final Jackson Hole appearance, scheduled during the Aug. 21–23 symposium, is widely framed as a tone-setting moment before the September FOMC. Consensus coverage flags the risk that Powell leans hawkish to preserve optionality, even as rates markets handicap a cut next month; Krüger leans “slightly bearish into it as a hawkish speech (to reduce the odds of a September cut) makes sense, for the Fed to retain optionality and not let the market push itself into a corner.” Technically, Bitcoin has cooled after printing fresh all-time highs in mid-July and again last week. Traders are watching the previous $112,000 high as initial downside cushion, with the psychologically critical $100,000 level, the overhead reference remains the $122,000–$124,000 zone of recent peaks. Krüger also highlights that “BTC is having a very hard time going up sans leverage without triggers,” a point echoed by derivatives signals showing compressed risk appetite. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Must Survive Brutal September Before Q4 Hope, Analyst Predicts Derivatives and volatility gauges corroborate the “low-vol, slow ascent” regime he describes. Implied volatility on BTC options (DVOL/BVIV) has sat near two-year lows, and open interest on institutional venues remains off July highs, signaling a more measured stance from levered players into Jackson Hole. Krüger also observed that futures basis had eased alongside the pullback—a classic sign of froth leaking out—while options markets show a renewed bid for downside protection on dips. The macro through-line is straightforward: if the Fed chair nomination tilts dovish, markets will begin discounting a looser stance well before the first policy move, extending the cycle; if the candidate (and subsequent guidance) skews restrictive, the liquidity impulse that powered Bitcoin’s post-ETF advance will fade at the margin. For now, the immediate catalysts are stacked—Powell at Jackson Hole, followed by PCE, NFP, CPI and PPI into September’s FOMC—while price trades between well-defined levels with volatility suppressed. As Krüger put it, bull markets “don’t end because of valuations or over-extension; the end needs a major trigger.” In 2025, that trigger may well be a name. At press time, BTC traded at $115,683. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Justin Bons, the founder and CIO of Cyber Capital, has issued a stark warning about Bitcoin’s (BTC) future, predicting that the world’s largest cryptocurrency could collapse in the coming years. The crypto founder has cited Bitcoin’s declining security model and shrinking block rewards as some of the indicators of this seemingly inevitable crash.  Bitcoin Forecasted To Collapse Within 7-11 Years This week, the crypto community was shaken by a striking prediction from Bons, who warned that Bitcoin could face a catastrophic collapse within the next decade. According to an X social media post released by the Cyber Capital founder, the foundations of Bitcoin’s security model are fundamentally broken, and the decline of mining revenue will eventually leave the network increasingly vulnerable to attacks. Related Reading: Bitcoin And Crypto Market To Crash? Analyst’s August-September Prediction Bons projected that Bitcoin’s downfall could occur precisely between 7 and 11 years, when the block rewards diminish to levels that can no longer sustain miner incentives. His reasoning is rooted in the economics of the Bitcoin protocol, which relies on a declining block subsidy over time. By 11 years from now, the reward is expected to fall to just 0.39 BTC per block, translating to roughly $2.3 billion annually at current prices. This figure, the crypto founder argues, is nowhere near enough to protect Bitcoin’s multi-trillion-dollar market capitalization.  Bons also shared two charts to reinforce his claims. The first shows mining revenue in sharp decline relative to previous years, demonstrating Bitcoin’s reliance on subsidy rather than transaction fees. The second chart reveals how the annual security budget as a percentage of market cap has fallen consistently over the years, shrinking from over 8% in 2015 to barely above 1% in 2025.  The Cyber Capital CIO also pointed out that while other chains like Ethereum have successfully transitioned toward greater fee-based security, Bitcoin has failed to adapt, leaving its miners increasingly dependent on dwindling rewards. According to his post, the consequences of this are dire. As mining becomes unprofitable, he predicts that the network’s security could simultaneously decline, opening the door to censorship, 51% attacks, and eventual chain splits.  If core developers respond by raising the supply cap beyond 21 million, Bons forecasts that this could fracture the community and destroy Bitcoin’s narrative of digital scarcity. He warned that relying on a system that demands perpetual price doubling to maintain its security forever is nothing short of “madness.” Community Pushes Back Against BTC Crash Claims Unsurprisingly, Bon’s foreboding forecast has sparked intense debate and contrasting views throughout the crypto community. Many members pushed back, acknowledging the concerns about a shrinking security budget but challenging the inevitability of a Bitcoin collapse.  Related Reading: Brace For Impact: Bitcoin Price Could Crash To $110,000 Amid Signs Of Exhaustion Some argued that BTC has historically adapted to challenges and that transaction fees, along with scaling solutions, could still provide sustainable long-term security. Others suggested alternative mechanisms, such as MEV capture, sidechain fees,  or even institutional miners operating at a loss to keep the network alive.  One community member raised the possibility of emergency measures like tail emissions or block size increases, citing Monero’s ongoing debate about similar solutions. Bons conceded that a tail emission might keep the chain alive but insisted it would come at the cost of Bitcoin’s core value proposition, which is fixed scarcity. In his view, such a compromise would leave BTC unable to compete against more adaptive blockchains. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant price declines, particularly among the three largest digital assets: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and XRP.  Following record-breaking rallies in the previous week, these cryptocurrencies have seen notable losses, with Ethereum down 5.2%, XRP dropping 3.8%, and Solana (SOL) slipping 6%. Even memecoin Dogecoin (DOGE) has not been spared, losing 5.2% of its value. Crypto Market Faces New Downturn According to a recent report by Barron’s, the recent downturn can be attributed to a combination of macroeconomic factors that have dampened investor optimism.  Wholesale price data has also raised concerns about the potential for sustained high interest rates, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that the US government does not plan to expand its Bitcoin reserves.  Related Reading: Ethereum Hits $4,350 Liquidity Pool: Can Demand Hold? Antonio Di Giacomo, analyst at XS, emphasized the impact of macroeconomic indicators on cryptocurrency prices. He pointed out that Bitcoin’s pullback after reaching an all-time high illustrates the volatility that can accompany such rapid price movements, even as institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies continues to rise.  The analyst believes that the digital asset market now appears to be balancing optimism with caution, navigating both structural demand and speculative exposure. Looking ahead, market analysts are closely watching upcoming statements from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium.  Any hints of hawkishness or delays in rate-cut expectations could further pressure risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Conversely, dovish signals may help sustain the current momentum in the market. September Challenges For Bitcoin In a recent social media post on X (formerly Twitter), market expert Doctor Profit has shared insights regarding the next price trajectory for Bitcoin. He forecasts a sideways movement within a narrow range of approximately 8% leading into September.  While the medium-term outlook remains bullish, he anticipates a significant correction in September, warning that it could be a challenging month for the crypto market.  Profit advises that now is the time to prepare for potential short positions, as he expects prices to decline in the coming weeks, allowing traders to buy back at lower levels. Related Reading: After Monero Hit, Qubic Group Puts Dogecoin On Target List Despite the current pullback, on-chain data reveals continued accumulation by larger wallets, indicating that major investors remain optimistic about the long-term potential of cryptocurrencies.  The expert also highlighted that the funding rates also appear healthy, suggesting that the market is not facing immediate selling pressure despite the recent Bitcoin and Ethereum price declines leading the current downturn.  As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $115,630, registering a 6.5% gap from the recently achieved $124,000 record. Ethereum on the other hand, has been inching closer to its all-time high with the drop stopping at the $4,300 support.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Crypto analyst Josh Olszewicz expects Bitcoin to endure a grinding, probabilistic market over the next six weeks before conditions improve into the fourth quarter, warning that September seasonality, softening momentum signals, and mixed ETF flow dynamics argue for patience rather than leverage. “The TL;DW is probably chopped and bearish near-term, bullish Q4,” he said in an August 18 video, adding that the path to a cleaner upside impulse is explicitly conditional on a handful of technical and flow triggers rather than a single catalyst. The Battle Lines Are Drawn For Bitcoin Olszewicz anchors the near-term roadmap in flows and seasonality. He wants “just nothing—just flatline on [ETF] flows for the next couple weeks and then four weeks of even worse,” arguing that a reset would “set us up for Q4.” While he noted, “We did have $550 million in a week, which is pretty good for any ETF… still a solid number… not zero,” he contrasted that with earlier, much larger weekly tallies and observed that corporate treasury buying—“still a lot of sellers obviously if price hasn’t gone anywhere”—has slowed from peak pace. The implication is not overt bearishness, but “time, not price”: either sharp pullbacks in names that ran or “dead sideways for six weeks.” On Bitcoin’s chart, Olszewicz reduces the debate to a well-defined line in the sand and a small set of Ichimoku- and trend-based triggers. “Since July… $121–$122,000 is still the imaginary line in the sand… a daily close above that level, I’m good with higher,” he said, adding, “Above $120,000 it’s easy. I like $150,000.” Until that break, he sees “chop” dominating. Related Reading: Michael Saylor Sets $100 Billion Target For Bitcoin Credit Initiative He identifies “the first signs of trouble” as “closing in the daily cloud and/or closing below the 20-week moving average—the yellow line there at $104,000,” and stresses the timing nuance: “If we get a close below the cloud in September, I’m a little less worried than if we get it in October.” A decisive slip late in Q3 rolling into Q4 would be more concerning. “If we close below $100k in October, then I’m closer to this cycle-over, no-more-cycles camp,” he warned, clarifying, “We’re far from that currently… there’s nothing here that’s bearish whatsoever—it’s just momentumless.” His preferred system-of-confirmation leans on the Ichimoku suite and a separate cloud backtest he tracks on the BTC daily chart. That model “caught [the] April move” early; at present it reads “okay,” but he outlines the precise sequence that would flip his bias: “You need first the bearish TK cross… and then a close in the cloud… then there’s a decent edge-to-edge trade.” It’s a decision tree, not a prediction: “It’s nuanced… if this, then that.” Macro timing could add friction in the interim. He points to Friday’s Jackson Hole appearance by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as the only obvious near-term “catalyst,” suggesting a hawkish tone—“not cutting, needing more data, needing more time”—would be a headwind. He also mused that “Trump may even announce his replacement before Powell speaks… just to steal the thunder,” framing it as a headline-risk factor for risk assets, not a base case. Still, the larger macro backdrop—rising global money supply and debt—remains a structural tailwind for scarce assets, in his view: “That’s going to provide a nice cushion… as they keep printing money everywhere globally.” Waiting For The Q4 Seasonality Olszewicz emphasizes that this doesn’t preclude upside, but it does undercut the probability of trending continuation in the very near term. By contrast, he calls Ethereum’s positioning “horrific… for the long side,” even as ETH just printed a record ETF-flow week—an apparent paradox he resolves by distinguishing one-week surges from the “stream of continuous flows” that sustains trends. The comparison matters for Bitcoin because a broad-based crypto risk bid is harder to maintain if ETH’s positioning and overbought technicals stall leadership. Related Reading: Bitcoin Data Shows Accumulation Prevails As LTH Selling Pressure Eases Within Bitcoin’s own market structure, Olszewicz blends tactical caution with the longer-term thesis many cycle investors still hold. He flags that “August has been bullish” so far but notes the historical rarity of “six months in a row” of green closes, and he reiterates that traders looking for “high-conviction moves” with leverage should prefer to wait for signals rather than force exposure in “nothingness.” Conversely, for long-horizon holders, he cites the power-law corridor as a reason to avoid second-guessing unless the market fails badly into Q4: “If you think there’s a… 30–50% chance that we actually attempt a parabolic move past the midpoint of the power law… it’s probably just worth sitting tight as an investor and saying, okay, show it to me.” That framework also explains his tolerance for deeper retests without abandoning the larger uptrend. He repeats that there is “plenty [of] room to get angry and go down,” with the 20-week moving average and daily cloud serving as objective guardrails. A September cloud break is a warning; an October cloud break or an October close below $100k would be a far stronger statement about the cycle’s health. Until then, he expects a market “holding levels,” with $121,000–$122,000 as the trigger that would convert “dead momentum” into a genuine impulse. For Bitcoin traders, the takeaway is spare and unsentimental. There is no “magical setup” this week, and the statistically unfriendly month of September looms. The bullish path into Q4 exists, but it must be earned: In the meantime, Olszewicz’s baseline is either rangebound “nothingness” or opportunistic pullbacks that reset overheated pockets of the market. The contingency that flips that script is clear enough to write on a Post-it: maintain the cloud, defend the 20-week around $104,000, and close decisively above $121,000–$122,000. Only then, Bitcoin could target $150,000.” At press time, BTC traded at $115,069. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

After hitting a new all-time high, the bitcoin price has since retraced towards its pre-pump levels from last week, completely erasing its rapid gains. As a result, the bears seem to be reclaiming control once again, with sellers dominating the market. While expectations for another sharp recovery abound, crypto analyst Melikatrader has outlined two possible scenarios for the pioneer cryptocurrency, with both ending in bearish reversals toward established local peaks. Lower Trendline Break Points To Bearish Developments The analysis highlights the two possible directions that the Bitcoin price could be headed in after the fall from its new all-time highs. Both scenarios start out with a bullish push upward, and then a bearish decline. However, with each one, there is a different possible peak before resistance kicks in. Related Reading: Bitcoin And Crypto Market To Crash? Analyst’s August-September Prediction In both cases, the first trigger is the fact that the Bitcoin price had broken out of the lower trendline of the channel. This comes after it had initially broken the ascending channel that it had been trading inside of, with the result being higher highs and higher lows. Thus, the break below the trendline means that bearish pressure is beginning to dominate. With the bearish pressure mounting and sellers taking control, there are now two ways that the price could go. The first of these is that it continues to rally and then gets rejected above the $118,000 level. This is a supply zone, where sellers could unload massive amounts of BTC into the market and beat back the price. In the second scenario, the price does continue to rally even after hitting the first supply zone. This takes it into the next supply zone just below $120,000, which is currently sitting at $19,700. However, the end remains the same as that of the first scenario, where sellers are likely to dump and send the Bitcoin price plummeting again. How Low Can The Bitcoin Price Go? As the analyst highlights, the peak of both scenarios aligns with retracement levels where sellers could be waiting to dump. Given this, they both have a similar bottom after crashing. From here, the downside target for both scenarios is placed at the $115,800 target. Related Reading: XRP Price Could Be Headed To New All-Time Highs Due To These Factors This is because this is where previous demand and support had been during the previous retracement/correction. Given this, it is likely that buyers are likely to step back in at this level, making it a possible bottom and the launch point for the next rally. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin price appeared to have resumed its bull run as it ran up to a new all-time high on Thursday, August 14. However, this positive momentum was short-lived, as the premier cryptocurrency crashed from the unprecedented high of $124,000 down to around $118,000. The Bitcoin price has struggled to reignite this bullish run over the weekend, hovering in and around the $118,00 level for the majority of Saturday, August 16. The latest on-chain data suggests that this price sluggishness might persist over the next few weeks. Bitcoin Netflow On Binance Turns Positive As Selling Pressure Persists In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, pseudonymous on-chain analyst BorisVest revealed that the Bitcoin price could experience selling pressure over the next one to two weeks. This projection is based on the flow of coins on Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume. Related Reading: Bitcoin 30-Day CDD Down: Market Absorbs LTH Selling Without Breaking Support The relevant indicators here include the Bitcoin Netflow and Exchange Reserve metrics, both of which measure the amount of coins that enter or leave a cryptocurrency exchange. According to data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin netflow has turned positive while outflows have reduced on the Binance exchange. BorisVest mentioned that this trend suggests that Bitcoin is in a distribution phase, especially on Binance, leading to the current high volatility in the market. The analyst explained that this might have played a role in the short-lived momentum faced by the Bitcoin price during its last run-up to the all-time high. BorisVest noted that the exchange reserves on Binance continued to rise as the Bitcoin price soared to a new all-time high, indicating that investors sent their coins to the exchange to be sold for profit. “The missing component was buyers; once price reached the peak and demand kicked in, selling pressure accelerated,” the on-chain analyst added. Furthermore, BorisVest highlighted that the Perpetual-Spot Price Gap showed the presence of aggressive buyers, creating an ideal environment for distribution. According to the online pundit, Binance whales took the opportunity to sell, with buyers in position. BorisVest mentioned that Binance’s significant trading volume plays a crucial role in why and how the exchange’s activity influences the crypto market. Hence, Binance whales offloading as new buyers enter tends to put substantial selling pressure on the Bitcoin price. The on-chain concluded that while the broader upward trend remains in play, the Bitcoin price is likely to continue to experience selling pressure over the next one to two weeks. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, BTC is valued at around $117,490, reflecting an almost 1% price jump in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Institutions Buying The Bitcoin Dip? Coinbase Premium Shoots Up Featured image from IStock, chart from TradingView

The Bitcoin price has been on an interesting trajectory over the past few weeks, setting new all-time highs along the way. More recently, the premier cryptocurrency surged to a new all-time high above the $124,100 mark. The Bitcoin price has since succumbed to significant bearish pressure, hovering around the $118,000 region for most of the weekend. A prominent crypto trader on the social media platform X has identified levels that could be pivotal to the coin’s future trajectory. $117,500 And $114,500 Are Next Support Levels: Glassnode Data In a recent post on the X platform, crypto analyst Ali Martinez pinpointed two support levels that could prove crucial to the Bitcoin price’s movements over the next few days. This evaluation is based on the cost-basis distribution of the Bitcoin supply. Related Reading: Bitcoin Under Pressure? Rising Exchange Inflows Signal Potential Supply Build-Up Martinez highlighted the cost basis distribution (CBD) metric, which looks at the average cost basis of the total Bitcoin supply within various price brackets. As observed in the chart below, the CBD metric utilizes a heatmap with fixed price bracket levels (on the vertical axis) over a specific period (on the horizontal axis). The CBD chart shows that there is a significant cluster of investor cost-basis distribution around the $117,500 and $114,500 Bitcoin price levels. This basically indicates the presence of several investors who likely purchased their coins around these price regions. According to data from Glassnode, 72,900 BTC and 56,201 BTC were acquired from around the $117,500 and $114,500 levels, respectively. Martinez earmarked these $117,500 and $114,500 levels as the next critical support zones for the market leader. These price regions could act as support cushions because investors—who have been in the green—are likely to defend their positions by buying more coins when the Bitcoin price returns to their cost bases; and this fresh buying activity could then help keep the price afloat. It is worth mentioning that the Bitcoin price could be at risk of a severe correction if it breaks beneath the $114,500 support, as no major price cushion seems to be in sight. Bitcoin Price Overview As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $117,600, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours. This past-day action mirrors the current indecisiveness in the world’s largest market. According to CoinGecko data, the flagship cryptocurrency is up by a mere 0.7% in the last seven days. Related Reading: XRP Price Could Be Headed To New All-Time Highs Due To These Factors Featured image created by Dall-E, chart from TradingView

According to CRYPTOWZRD’s recent update, Bitcoin ended the last session on a bearish note, but the broader outlook may soon shift. He noted that the Trump–Putin meeting delivered a productive outcome, which could fuel a positive reaction in the market if conditions remain steady. Daily Candle Shows Slight Bearish Bias, Yet Indecisive In his update, CRYPTOWZRD noted that Bitcoin’s daily candle closed slightly bearish. The analyst explained that although the close leaned to the downside, he would still consider the overall signal indecisive.  Related Reading: Bull Case For Bitcoin At $300,000 Triggers After Reaching Critical Level Turning attention to external factors, CRYPTOWZRD highlighted that the recent meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska was productive. He pointed out that this development could create a favorable atmosphere in the broader crypto market, which may spill over into Bitcoin, unless the situation changes later on. At the same time, CRYPTOWZRD stressed that traders cannot overlook the traditional markets, where the weekly candle closed bearish. He described this as an early warning sign that should not be dismissed, as it may serve as a precursor to deeper corrections if unexpected developments occur.  In his view, this makes it necessary to remain alert, even in the face of seemingly positive momentum elsewhere. While a productive geopolitical meeting may boost investor confidence, the bearish weekly signal in traditional markets is a reminder that conditions can quickly shift.  As for his approach, CRYPTOWZRD stated that his focus remains on the lower timeframe chart formations. He believes this is where quick scalp opportunities are likely to emerge, allowing traders to capture movement without being overly exposed to sudden swings. By tracking these intraday setups, he intends to navigate the volatility while waiting for clearer signals on Bitcoin’s next larger move. Bitcoin Choppy Price Action Limits Clear Setups Rounding up his analysis, CRYPTOWZRD observed that the intraday chart for Bitcoin remained somewhat choppy and leaned bearish. He explained that price action has been confined within a relatively small range, making it less favorable for immediate trading decisions.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Volatility Hits 2-Year Low As 30-Day Range Tightens He emphasized that the key level to watch on the upside is $119,500. According to the expert, a move above this threshold would shift Bitcoin into bullish territory, creating a potential long opportunity. Until that breakout occurs, he prefers to remain cautious rather than force trades in uncertain conditions. On the downside, CRYPTOWZRD noted that a break below $117,000 would signal further weakness and open the door for short positions. For now, he concluded that an ideal approach is to wait for the next decisive move before taking action. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is approaching a critical juncture as its textbook ascending triangle converges with a tight trading range. Consolidation near key support and resistance levels sets the stage for a potential breakout or breakdown, making the next moves crucial for market momentum. Ascending Triangle Signals Strength Alpha Crypto Signal, in a recent post, highlighted that Bitcoin is currently shaping a textbook ascending triangle pattern on the daily chart — a well-recognized bullish continuation setup. The analyst explained that price action is consolidating just under the horizontal resistance zone at $122,500, while a series of higher lows continues to form along the rising trendline, signaling strong underlying demand. Related Reading: Bull Case For Bitcoin At $300,000 Triggers After Reaching Critical Level The analyst emphasized that as long as BTC holds above the 9 EMA at $118,738 and respects the ascending triangle’s support line, the overall bias remains bullish. These levels are crucial in maintaining the pattern’s structure, and a break below them could shift sentiment in favor of the bears. The persistence of higher lows indicates that buyers are consistently stepping in, preventing significant pullbacks, as indicated on the chart. In conclusion, Alpha Crypto Signal stated that a clean break above the $122,500 resistance, backed by strong volume, could open the door for BTC to push toward a new all-time high. Such a move is likely to confirm the ascending triangle breakout and potentially trigger the next major bullish wave in the market. Bitcoin Stuck Between $112,592 And $123,334 In an X post, X_Crypto, after examining Bitcoin’s action in a 4-hour timeframe, revealed that the flagship asset is currently trading within a defined range between $112,592 and $123,334, as highlighted on the chart. Meanwhile, the price is hovering around $119,106, with local support at $117,445 and the nearest resistance set at $123,334. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Wobbles Below Resistance – Could a Fresh Drop Follow? The analyst noted that above the current range, $124,576 stands out as a key resistance zone. If this level is breached, the next upside target would be $127,272, which could serve as a profit-taking point in a bullish scenario. These levels will be critical in determining the strength of any upward continuation. On the downside, X_Crypto pointed out that a break below $117,445 could open the way for a drop toward $112,592 — the lower boundary of the range and a strong support zone where buyers are likely to step in. This area, the writer stressed, will be pivotal for defending the broader bullish structure. Lastly, indicators on the lower timeframes, as mentioned by X_Crypto, are showing local oversold conditions, hinting at a potential short-term bounce. However, the analyst cautioned that without sustained consolidation above $119,106, selling pressure could persist, limiting any meaningful upside momentum. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s record-breaking rally hit a pause this week as shifting U.S. policy signals triggered a sharp pullback. After surging to an all-time high of $124,457 on August 13, BTC plunged as low as $117,477 on Friday morning before stabilizing around $119,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Act Is Still America’s Playbook, Clarifies Senator Lummis The 5% drop followed U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments ruling out additional government Bitcoin purchases for strategic reserves, sparking $1 billion in leveraged liquidations. Despite the correction, on-chain data suggests the market may be setting up for another leg higher. Exchange netflows have dipped to levels historically seen before major bull runs in 2017 and 2021, signaling reduced selling pressure from long-term holders. Short-Term Bitcoin (BTC) Holders Show Strength Amid Volatility One of the most striking trends has been the resilience of short-term holders (STHs), defined as addresses holding Bitcoin (BTC) for 155 days or less. Instead of selling into the rally, STHs have shifted toward accumulation, as reflected in the rebound of the STH Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) above the neutral line. This indicates that coins moved by STHs are being sold at a profit, yet without triggering large-scale profit-taking. Market analysts view this conviction as a stabilizing force that could help absorb selling pressure and support higher prices in the coming weeks. BTC's price breaks below $120,000 on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview  Derivatives Market Points to Aggressive Buying The derivatives market has also flashed bullish signals. Over the past 24 hours, BTC recorded $24.28 million in short liquidations versus $17.16 million in long liquidations, alongside a 65% surge in trading volume to $149.47 billion. Options volume soared 128% to $9.43 billion, while the taker buy/sell ratio hit a monthly high of 1.16, a sign that buyers are aggressively absorbing supply. Positive funding rates further indicate traders’ willingness to pay premiums to hold long positions, suggesting confidence without excessive leverage risk. The NVT Golden Cross, a valuation-to-transaction metric, has dropped sharply, a pattern that has historically preceded strong rallies. Related Reading: Bitcoin Pulls Back Below $120K After New ATH as Whale Ratio Hits Risk Levels With resistance at $122,190 and support near $115,892, market watchers say a breakout above the former could trigger a retest of $124,457. Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from

Capriole founder Charles Edwards argues that Bitcoin’s famous four-year boom-and-bust pattern has effectively ended—not because markets have matured into a placid equilibrium, but because the engine that once forced 80–90% drawdowns has been dismantled by Bitcoin’s own monetary design. The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Is Dead In his Update #66 newsletter published on August 15, 2025, Edwards writes that since the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin’s annual supply growth has fallen to roughly 0.8%, “less than half of Gold’s 1.5–3%,” adding that this shift “made Bitcoin the hardest asset known to man, with look-ahead certainty.” With miners’ new-issuance supply now a rounding error compared with aggregate demand, the dramatic, miner-driven busts of prior cycles look increasingly like artifacts of an earlier era. “In short – the primary driving force behind Bitcoin cycle 80-90% drawdowns historically is dead.” Edwards does not deny that cycles exist. He reframes their causes. Reflexive investor behavior, macro liquidity, on-chain valuation extremes, and derivatives-market “euphoria” can still combine to produce sizable drawdowns. But if the halving calendar no longer dictates those inflection points, investors must recalibrate the signals they monitor and the timelines on which they expect risk to crystalize. Related Reading: Q4 Will Decide If The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Is Dead: Analyst On reflexivity, he cautions that belief in the four-year script can itself become a price driver. If “enough Bitcoiners believe in the 4 year cycle… they will structure their investing activities around it,” he notes, invoking George Soros’s notion that market narratives feed back into fundamentals. That self-fulfilling element can still trigger “sizeable drawdowns,” even if miners are no longer the marginal price-setters. Macro liquidity, in Edwards’s framework, remains decisive. He tracks a “Net Liquidity” gauge—the year-over-year growth in global broad money minus the cost of debt (proxied by US 10-year Treasury yields)—to distinguish genuinely expansive regimes from nominal money growth that is offset by higher rates. Historically, “All of Bitcoin’s historic bear markets have occurred while this metric was declining… with the depths… while this metric was less than zero,” he writes, whereas “All of Bitcoin’s major bull runs have occurred in positive Net Liquidity environments.” As of mid-August, he characterizes conditions as constructive: “We are currently in a positive liquidity environment and the Fed is now forecast to cut rates 3 times in the remainder of 2025.” On-Chain Data Is Still Supportive If liquidity sets the tide, euphoria marks the froth. Edwards points to established on-chain gauges—MVRV, NVT, Energy Value—that have historically flashed red at cycle peaks. Those indicators, he says, are not yet there: “In 2025 we still see no signs of onchain Euphoria. Bitcoin today is appreciating in a steady, relatively sustainable way versus historic cycles.” A chart of MVRV Z-Score “shows we are nowhere near the price euphoria of historic Bitcoin tops.” By contrast, his derivatives composite—the “Heater,” which aggregates positioning and leverage across perps, futures, and options—has been hot enough to warrant short-term caution. “The heat is on… Of all the metrics we will look at here, this one is telling us that the market locally has overheated near all time highs this week.” In his telling, elevated Heater readings can cap near-term upside unless they persist for months alongside rising open interest—conditions more consistent with a major top. One metric, however, eclipses the rest in 2025–26: institutional absorption of new supply. “Today, 150+ public companies and ETFs are buying over 500% of Bitcoin’s daily supply creation from mining,” Edwards writes. “When demand outruns supply like this, Bitcoin has historically surged over the coming months. Every time this has happened in Bitcoin’s history (5 occurrences), price has shot up by 135% on average.” He emphasizes that the current, extended period of high multiples on this measure is “good news for Bitcoin,” while conceding the obvious caveat: no one can know how long such conditions will last. Related Reading: Bitcoin Realized Price Flips 200-WMA: What Happens Next? Because institutional demand can flip to supply, Edwards details a “treasury company early warning system.” He highlights four watch-items that his team tracks “24/7 for cycle risk management and positioning purposes”: a Treasury Buy-Sell Ratio that, if falling, “suggests growing selling by the 150+ companies”; a Treasury CVD whose flattening or lurch into a “red zone” is “risk off”; the percentage of Coinbase volume that is net buying; and a Treasury Company Seller Count that, on spikes, has historically preceded pressure. Layered on top is balance-sheet fragility. The more treasuries lever up to accumulate Bitcoin, the more a drawdown can cascade through forced deleveraging. “Total Debt relative to Enterprise value are key to track,” he says, adding that Capriole will publish a fresh tranche of treasury-risk metrics “next week.” Quantum Computers Vs. Bitcoin Edwards then makes an argument many Bitcoin investors will find uncomfortable: quantum computing is both an attractive return opportunity and Bitcoin’s most concrete long-term tail risk. Capriole, he says, expects “the asset class will outperform Bitcoin by circa 50% p.a. over the next 5–10 years,” citing today’s small market capitalizations against a “$2T+” addressable market. At the same time, “in the long-term (without change) QC is existential to Bitcoin,” with a worst-case window of “3–6 years” to break the cryptography that secures wallets and transactions. He notes that China “is spending 5X more on QC than the US” and recently “presented a QC machine a million times more powerful than Google’s,” arguing that the pace of breakthroughs, “with… innovations occurring every quarter,” suggests “this technology will mature sooner than many think. Just like ChatGPT.” The operational challenge, even if the risk is not imminent, is the migration path. Edwards sketches back-of-the-envelope constraints: roughly 25 million Bitcoin addresses hold more than $100; on “a good day,” the network handles about 10 transactions per second. If everyone tried to rotate to quantum-resistant keys at once—and many would prudently send test transactions—it would take “3–6 months” just to push the transactions through, before even counting the time to achieve consensus on, and deploy, a preferred upgrade. “Optimistically we are looking at a 12 month lead time to move the Bitcoin network to a Quantum proof system,” he writes. He flags work by Jameson Lopp as a starting point and urges the community to “encourage action on the QC Bitcoin Improvement Proposals (BIPS).” Capriole itself holds quantum-computing exposure both for return potential and as “a portfolio hedge should a worst case scenario eventuate.” His conclusion is clear without being complacent. “The Bitcoin miner driven cycle is largely dead.” If institutional demand holds, “there is a strong chance of a right translated cycle,” with “a significant period of price expansion still ahead of us.” But vigilance is essential. The two variables to prioritize this halving epoch, in his view, are “Net Liquidity and Institutional Buying,” while the “biggest risk to this cycle” is paradoxically the cohort that has powered it: the Bitcoin treasury companies whose balance-sheet choices can compound both upside and downside. Quantum computing, he stresses, “isn’t a risk to Bitcoin this Halving cycle,” but absent action “it certainly will be in the next one.” The prescription is not to fear cycles, but to retire the outdated ones and prepare—technically and operationally—for the cycles that remain. At press time, BTC traded at $119,121. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

A morning soundbite from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent briefly rattled Bitcoin and crypto markets on Thursday before a late-day clarification restored the policy baseline: the United States won’t be sellers, and “budget-neutral” options to grow the country’s bitcoin stockpile remain on the table. Senator Cynthia Lummis swiftly framed the endpoint. “America needs the BITCOIN Act,” she wrote, calling the legislation the operative blueprint for expanding a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve without tapping taxpayers. In a Fox Business hit that ricocheted across X, Bessent said the government is “not going to be buying” additional bitcoin and added, “We’re going to stop selling that,” referencing a reserve he valued between $15 billion and $20 billion. Markets faded into the statement; by mid-day, bitcoin was off roughly 3.7%. The point that stuck—“we’re not going to be buying”—was clipped and shared widely, but it was only half the story. Related Reading: Q4 Will Decide If The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Is Dead: Analyst Hours later, Bessent posted a clarifying note. “Bitcoin that has been finally forfeited to the federal government will be the foundation of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve that President Trump established in his March Executive Order,” he wrote. “In addition, Treasury is committed to exploring budget-neutral pathways to acquire more Bitcoin to expand the reserve, and to execute on the President’s promise to make the United States the ‘Bitcoin superpower of the world.’” The course correction aligned his comments with the administration’s March directive and the policy discussion that has matured since. Bitcoin Act Is Still The Way Forward Lummis, chair of the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets, seized the moment to underline the fiscal constraint. “Secretary Scott Bessent is right: a budget-neutral path to building SBR is the way. We cannot save our country from $37T debt by purchasing more bitcoin, but we can revalue gold reserves to today’s prices & transfer the increase in value to build SBR. America needs the BITCOIN Act.” In a separate reply to Bessent, she added: “I have a ₿ill for that.” Her posts also flagged ongoing work “with Scott Bessent & Howard Lutnick to identify budget-neutral ways to continue growing our bitcoin reserve & outpacing adversaries in the race.” The legal and administrative scaffolding for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve was set five months ago. On March 6, President Trump signed an executive order creating the SBR and a separate US Digital Asset Stockpile, directing agencies to capitalize the reserve with Bitcoin “finally forfeited” to the government and to develop budget-neutral strategies for further acquisition. Related Reading: Binance Bitcoin Reserves Surge To 579,000 BTC – Signal Of Profit-Taking Or Bullish Liquidity? Lummis’s “BITCOIN Act” would take that framework from executive policy to statute and goes considerably further. The latest text lays out a five-year purchase program authorizing up to 200,000 BTC per year—1,000,000 BTC in total—paired with a 20-year minimum holding period and a quarterly, public cryptographic proof-of-reserves regime. Where Bessent’s remarks intersect—and diverge—with that legislative ambition is gold. In March, he downplayed a formal revaluation of US gold as a credible budget lever, even as the broader policy conversation around the asset side of the federal balance sheet intensified. On Thursday, Bessent told Fox Business that a gold revaluation is “unlikely.” Lummis, by contrast, is explicitly proposing to mark gold to market in order to seed the SBR without new borrowing—an idea that has migrated from think-piece fodder to bill text but still faces macro, legal, and central-bank-independence scrutiny. The bottom line is that Thursday did not mark a policy reversal so much as a restatement of sequencing. The executive branch will build the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve first with finally forfeited coins and, per Bessent’s clarification, is actively evaluating budget-neutral ways to expand it. At press time, BTC traded at $118,751. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s fresh record above $124,000 on Thursday set the stage for a stark test of one of oldest heuristics, according to Joe Consorti, Head of Growth at Theya. In a video published today, August 14, Consorti argued that the fourth quarter will reveal whether the market’s long-observed four-year halving cycle still governs price behavior—or whether the asset has entered a new regime shaped by deep, patient pools of traditional finance capital. “Bitcoin just hit a brand new all-time high of more than $123,700,” he said at the top of the segment. “It’s since corrected slightly…but we’re still pushing higher.” That print aligns with Wednesday’s tape across major dashboards: Bitcoin price topped above $124,4000 today as macro traders leaned into a prospective Fed easing path and risk sentiment firmed. Q4 Could Bury The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle For Good Consorti framed the breakout against a month-long tug-of-war around $118,000–$120,000, describing how “longs and shorts have been fighting back and forth for market control,” with bulls “slowly but surely” grinding out the upper hand. He tied the setup to the seasonal transition out of the “summer doldrums,” and to a policy backdrop he expects to turn supportive: “As Wall Street returns from vacation… the Fed is positioned for its first maintenance rate cut in a year as the US economy rebounds.” Futures markets have increasingly priced a September cut, a shift that has underpinned risk assets broadly alongside dollar softness. The heart of Consorti’s thesis is that this expansion is structurally different. “This is also Bitcoin’s longest bull market ever… at 21 months compared to 13 months,” he said, using that duration to pose the key dilemma: “That begs the question, is the 4-year cycle dead? Well, at the very least, the 4-year cycle will be tested in Q4 of this year.” Related Reading: The Grand Bitcoin Roadmap: Crypto Expert Says $160,000 Still In The Works He pointed viewers to analysis from on-chain researcher James Check (Checkmate) at CheckOnChain. “If we see a massive run-up and blow-off top at 4-year end, the theory remains intact… but if not, Bitcoin’s behavior through market cycles has probably changed forever.” Check, for his part, has recently written that “if there was ever a time for the 4yr Bitcoin halving cycle to break, this market environment is likely it,” underscoring how veteran on-chain analysts are also bracing for a pattern shift. What’s changed, in Consorti’s view, is the buyer base. “Traditional finance capital pools have entered the picture, and they play by different rules.” He highlighted spot Bitcoin ETFs as the prime conduit: “These are purchased by retirees, pension funds, and endowments… These are allocators with no near-term intention of selling. They plan to hold it for years, even decades, and only gradually shave down positions over time.” To illustrate, he cited Harvard University’s endowment: “Their endowment purchased 1.9 million shares of iShares Bitcoin Trust, valued at $116.7 million in Q2.” That position—disclosed in a recent 13F—impressively demonstrates the institutional adoption of BlackRock’s IBIT. Related Reading: Two Forces Can Launch Bitcoin To $1 Million, Says Mike Novogratz Consorti extended the long-horizon argument to treasury adopters: “These are firms holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets with no plan to sell. Ever… the serious players… are permanent fixtures in the market.” The implication, he said, is a visible evolution in market structure and tempo: “Instead of the violent booms and busts of earlier cycles, we’re seeing something new, which is a consistent uptrend punctuated by periods of consolidation, then rapid expansion, then consolidation again.” As supply becomes increasingly lodged with long-duration holders and the asset’s capital base thickens, “volatility naturally compresses, but upside doesn’t vanish. It just plays out in longer arcs, with bigger dollar moves and a slower tempo.” He added that this maturation is already noticeable as Bitcoin grows “beyond its current $2.4 trillion market cap,” even as he acknowledged that the fourth quarter will be the crucible for the cycle debate. “In Q4, that dynamic could be on full display,” Consorti concluded. A “mix of easing financial conditions, renewed institutional inflows post-summer, and persistent structural demand from ETFs, corporates, and high net worth allocators could set the stage for another leg higher and a banner Q4.” But his sign-off was deliberately non-deterministic: “Only after the fourth quarter of this year will we truly know whether or not the four-year cycle is truly dead and buried… We’ll just have to wait and see.” At press time, BTC traded at $119,068. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) surged to a new all-time high of $124,400 on early Thursday, fueled by strong institutional demand, bullish technicals, and favorable U.S. policy shifts. The move pushed the overall crypto market cap to a record $4.18 trillion. Related Reading: Ripple CTO Comments On Rising XRP Ledger Competition From Fintechs The rally followed a decisive breakout above key technical levels, including the 7-day SMA at $118,892 and the 200-day EMA at $101,566. The MACD histogram widened to its most bullish reading since July 2025, while the RSI14 at 68.5 suggests there’s still room before hitting overbought conditions. Fibonacci projections now place BTC’s next major resistance near $126,870. However, after briefly surpassing $124K, Bitcoin retraced to around $121,800, prompting traders to ask whether this is simply consolidation before the next surge. Institutional Demand and Policy Support Driving Momentum Corporate and institutional accumulation remains a major driver. SpaceX continues to hold 8,285 BTC worth over $1 billion, while Thumzup Media recently announced a $50 million crypto treasury. These moves mirror Metaplanet’s purchase of 2,205 BTC earlier this week. Political tailwinds are also in play. U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has rolled back banking restrictions on crypto firms and signed legislation opening retirement accounts to digital asset investments. The GENIUS Act, introducing the country’s first federal stablecoin framework, has further boosted market confidence. ETF inflows have accelerated, with U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs pulling in over $1 billion in net weekly inflows. Total ETF holdings now stand at $154 billion, signaling deep institutional interest. BTC's price records some losses after a major spike on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview  Bitcoin (BTC) Pundits Eye $150K If Momentum Holds Despite a notable July sell-off by long-term holders, the largest since 2021, market analysts see the pullback as a healthy pause. Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus Crypto Platform, views $120K as a new “sturdy floor” and $126K as the breakout point that could open the path toward $150,000. “With strong macro tailwinds, robust ETF demand, and rising corporate adoption, every dip may be viewed as a buying opportunity rather than a reversal signal,” noted Himanshu Maradiya, Chairman of CIFDAQ. Related Reading: Ethereum CME Gap Threatens Recovery, Why A Crash To $4,080 Is Possible If bullish sentiment persists, Bitcoin could soon challenge higher psychological levels, making this latest pullback less a warning sign and more a pit stop before the next leg up. Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin’s performance in recent days has been nothing short of notable with an impressive rally. The leading cryptocurrency has managed to surge past $124,000 this week to register a new all-time high of $124,128 in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data. Interestingly, technical analysis from a crypto analyst known pseudonymously as Stockmoney Lizards predicts that Bitcoin is now approaching a critical phase that will send its price over $300,000 by 2026. Bitcoin Reaches Pivotal Phase In Long-Term Trend Stockmoney Lizards shared a long-term Bitcoin macro chart that combines a price channel with a momentum oscillator in a post on the social media platform X. The analysis, which was done on the 2-week candlestick timeframe chart, shows that Bitcoin has been trading upwards within a rising parallel channel since 2012, with major cycle tops touching the channel’s upper resistance line. Related Reading: None Of These 30 Bitcoin Bull Market Top Indicators Have Been Triggered Recent price action has seen the Bitcoin price climbing toward the midline of the channel. According to the analyst, this is the most critical phase, and the current movement suggests it is about to repeat impulsive waves to the upside like both the 2018 and 2021 bull runs.  Furthermore, the analyst pointed to a bounce on the oscillator at the bottom of the chart, much like it did in 2017 and 2020 before the rallies in the subsequent year. This oscillator, combined with recent technical factors, has led the analyst to forecast a potential base Bitcoin price target of $180,000 to $200,000 by early 2026, while leaving open the possibility of an even stronger rally. Path To A $300,000 Bull Case Although Stockmoney Lizards noted that Bitcoin has matured and its market behavior is no longer a perfect mirror of past cycles, the market still has room for a “my-neighbor-just-asked-me-about-Bitcoin” type of frenzy phase. This stage, which is going to be characterized by a surge in mainstream retail interest, will be the one to generate the needed parabolic price surge for the bigger bull case.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Could Hit A Small Roadblock To ATH As CME Gap Threatens Crash If such a scenario unfolds, the analyst projected that Bitcoin’s bull case could extend beyond $300,000 before the current macro cycle peaks. Interestingly, the chart projection shows a price target as high as $350,000.  Bitcoin is already up by about 107% in the past year. Its rally in the past weeks is based on a few factors ranging from expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts to regulatory green lights for cryptocurrencies in retirement plans. A surge to $300,000 and $350,000 by 2026 would translate to another 145% and 188% increase, respectively, from the current price level. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $121,685, up by 1.8% in the past 24 hours. It has retraced by 1.9% from its new all-time high of $124,128 about seven hours ago. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin hit a new all-time high (ATH) on August 13, providing a bullish outlook for the leading cryptocurrency. Ethereum has also recorded remarkable gains in the last seven days, bringing it close to its ATH. This development has occurred thanks to macro factors, which are boosting risk-on sentiment.  Bitcoin Hits New ATH While Ethereum Records Massive Gains CoinMarketCap data shows that Bitcoin has reached a new ATH of $124,400, surpassing its previous ATH of around $123,091, which it hit just a month ago. Meanwhile, Ethereum is up almost 30% in the last seven days and is now just about 2% away from its ATH of $4,891. With the crypto market boasting this bullish momentum, ETH is expected to reach a new ATH sooner rather than later.  Related Reading: Pundit Predicts ‘Near Term’ Bitcoin And Ethereum Prices, There’s Still Room To Run These rallies for Bitcoin and Ethereum have occurred on the back of positive macro developments such as the U.S. CPI data, which has boosted hopes of a September Fed rate cut. The July CPI inflation data came in at 2.7%, which showed that inflation in the country was steady. This reading was also lower than the expected 2.8%.  Meanwhile, earlier on, the July job data had suggested that the U.S. labor market was weakening after nonfarm payrolls rose to 73,000, lower than the expected 147,000. Meanwhile, May and June figures were revised to 19,000 and 14,000 from 144,000 and 147,000, respectively.  These developments have proven bullish for Bitcoin and Ethereum as the odds of a 25-basis-point (bps) September Fed rate cut have reached as high as 99%, according to CME FedWatch. These odds are now at 95% while there is a 4.2% chance of a 50 bps, which would be more bullish for these crypto assets if it happens. Rate cuts inject more liquidity into the market and boost investors’ appetite for risk-on assets like BTC and ETH.  Higher Prices Still Likely For BTC Crypto analyst Ezy said that the Bitcoin price is in the ‘Sign of Strength’ phase, signaling that this is the beginning of a major bullish move after a period of accumulation by whales. The analyst added that the first target in this phase is typically the 1.618 Fibonacci, which is around $130,000.  Related Reading: None Of These 30 Bitcoin Bull Market Top Indicators Have Been Triggered Meanwhile, the Ezy stated that the second target is at the 2.0 Fibonacci level, near $145,000, and the final target is around $166,000. His accompanying chart showed that Bitcoin can reach these targets between September and October, around when the monetary easing cycle is expected to begin.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $122,600, up over 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay chart from Tradingview.com

Despite recovering above $120,000 again, Bitcoin has not been able to completely shake off the bearish pull. This has resulted in what looks like the beginning stages of a price pullback that could result in a notable crash. There are also fair value gaps (FVGs) that are yet to be fully filled, suggesting that the uptrend may see a pause before resuming. Bitcoin Momentum Pulling Toward Bearish As crypto analyst TehThomas explains in an analysis, the Bitcoin price action shows that it has moved toward a key rejection block. This rejection block was around the $122,000 level, explaining why the cryptocurrency saw a pushback from here. Related Reading: How Western Union’s Acquisition Of Intermex Is A Win For Ripple And XRP Given this, Thomas explains that this movement points to exhaustion in the market. This could suggest more sellers are beginning to take profit, and with buyers taking a step back, there is not enough demand to hold off the supply being poured into the market. If this continues, then there will be a shift into the bearish territory for this. Moreover, the fact that he rejection block aligned with the 4-Hour charts shows there is a strong confluence zone for sellers. This puts bears in charge at this level, and with the price closing within this confluence zone, it gives more strength to the reversal trend and could push for a further retracement. Buying Into The Fair Value Gap There is currently a fair value gap that is yet to be filled above $112,000. This makes this level the first target in the event of a price retracement. The likelihood of a retracement to this level is high because historically, fair value gaps tend to be filled first before there is a continuation of the bullish momentum. Related Reading: Analyst Predicts XRP Price Crash Below $3, But There’s Good News Additionally, there is also the fact that the Bitcoin price moved “through a cluster of resting liquidity above recent highs.” This was the level that acted as the trap for late buyers and longs and triggered a wave of liquidations as the price moved downward again. If this bearish scenario does play out, then the analyst expects that the Bitcoin price will actually crash back as low as $110,000 to fill the gaps. However, a completion of this move would serve as the setup for the next upward wave toward the peaks. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin may be setting up for another major push toward six-figure prices after reclaiming a key bullish pattern and ending a period of repeated downside deviations. According to well-known crypto analyst Rekt Capital, the recent move puts BTC back in position to aim for the $160,000 target, provided it can hold a crucial support level and break through evolving resistance. While short-term pullbacks are still possible, the broader technical picture remains intact. Historical price behavior suggests Bitcoin is still in a strong upward trend, but time and price pressures could soon force a decision point for the market. Bitcoin Bull Flag Breakout Revives Long-Term Bullish Outlook Rekt Capital’s latest analysis highlights that Bitcoin not only reclaimed its Bull Flag pattern but has positioned itself above it. This is an essential shift because a few weeks ago, BTC failed to confirm its breakout when it couldn’t hold the Bull Flag top. That earlier miss left the pattern unresolved and kept the market uncertain about the next big move. Related Reading: Raoul Pal Says He’s Been Long XRP For 4 Years After Calling It A “Moron” Trade By holding the $119,000 level as new support, BTC can confirm the breakout and solidify the foundation for a rally. The analyst cautions that the price could still dip back into the pattern temporarily, but as long as $119,000 holds, the bullish structure remains in play. Ending the recent downside deviation adds to the optimism. Several sharp deviations from bullish structures have marked this cycle, but reclaiming and holding above the Bull Flag shows renewed strength from buyers. For long-term bulls, this could be the technical reset needed to keep the $160,000 target alive. Key Resistance Levels That Stand Between BTC And $160,000 Despite a recent -9% dip, Bitcoin remains in what Rekt Capital calls “Price Discovery Uptrend 2.” This phase, which follows historical price tendencies, has stayed intact because the dip never broke the uptrend’s structure or confirmed a breakdown. However, the move into Week 6 of this uptrend is notable; historically, Weeks 5 and 6 have often been the “danger zone” for local tops. While history points to a potential pause here, the unique nature of this cycle may allow for an extension. Still, the decisive factor is now price, not just time. The analyst points to resistance that first appeared around $124,000 in July but has since evolved into a dynamic barrier closer to $126,000. Related Reading: Here’s What Is Going On In The Shiba Inu Community Amid Major Electoral Process Breaking this level in the next one to two weeks could trigger a sharp acceleration in the trend, putting the $160,000 roadmap back in focus. On the other hand, failure to clear $126,000 would create both time and price confluence for a pullback, which Rekt Capital calls “Price Discovery Correction 2.” Such a correction would not end the long-term bullish case but would delay the next leg up. Until then, all eyes are on these key levels: $119,000 for support and $126,000 for breakout. How Bitcoin handles them could decide whether the grand roadmap to $160,000 stays on track in the weeks ahead. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView.com

Mike Novogratz believes Bitcoin’s path to $1 million is powered by two engines—grassroots adoption and an unforgiving macroeconomic backdrop—and he would rather the ascent be measured than manic. “Bitcoin has two vectors that drive its valuation. One is adoption, right? How many people get orange-pilled? And the other is the macro environment,” the Galaxy CEO told Natalie Brunell in an August 12 interview on Coin Stories, adding that persistent fiscal profligacy across major economies remains a powerful tailwind. Novogratz Sees $1M Bitcoin Ahead Novogratz framed today’s market as the product of a decade of cultural and institutional conversion. On the cultural side, he argues that the social consensus around Bitcoin is now self-sustaining: “Some collection of first kooky people and then less kooky people and then all of us a little have successfully orange-pilled enough people that Bitcoin has value because we say it does.” On the institutional side, he singled out the moment the chief executive of the world’s largest asset manager embraced the asset class. “There’s before Larry Fink and after Larry Fink,” he said, praising the conversion of a once-skeptical standard-bearer as the symbolic turning point: “He blessed it as a real asset and it’s on the screen of every macro trader in the world.” Related Reading: Bitcoin-Money Supply Link Is A Myth, Glassnode Researcher Reveals The second engine is macro. Here Novogratz is blunt. He expects continued fiscal deterioration—regardless of political promises—to keep debasing fiat and, by extension, underwriting Bitcoin’s scarcity premium. “We have governments that can’t keep their pants on. They spend more money than they should… And you know what? The deficit’s going to be higher, not lower,” he said. In his telling, Bitcoin functions as both “report card” and governor on policymaking: the worse the stewardship, the stronger the bid for digital gold. The destination, in his view, is not in doubt. The route matters. “I think we will get to a million. I just hope we get there slowly,” Novogratz said. A disorderly sprint to seven figures, he warned, would likely reflect domestic or global dislocation: “People that cheer for the million-dollar Bitcoin price next year… it only gets there if we’re in such a [shitty] place domestically.” He prefers a glide path where adoption compounding meets macro drift, not panic. That stance informs his take on Bitcoin’s role and narrative. He wants Bitcoin to “stay in its lane” as digital gold—“the blockchain tailor-made for money”—and resists efforts to make it all things to all use cases. “The narrative is so clean when you say it’s digital gold,” he said, arguing that clarity invites the broadest acceptance from institutions and the public. That clarity has already translated into infrastructure: spot ETFs and traditional-market rails that deepen liquidity and lower frictions for allocators. Liquidity, he noted, has scaled to the point where even very large transfers can be absorbed with limited impact. Without naming the client, he acknowledged Galaxy’s execution of a high-profile sale of 80,000 BTC in the interview and observed that “the market held up very well… it barely made a blip.” For him, the episode illustrates the maturing of Bitcoin’s market structure—precisely the condition needed for large treasuries, lenders, and derivatives desks at “traditional firms [that] are going to start by lending against Bitcoin and Ethereum” to participate without destabilizing prices. Related Reading: Bitcoin Retraces Below $120,000: Is Coinbase Selling To Blame? Cycle-wise, Novogratz still sees room to run, though he is watching for signs of froth. “We’re getting five calls a week on new… balance sheet companies. At one point that’s what bubbles feel like,” he said. Even so, his “gut feeling” is for “one more leg up” with a potential ramp into the fourth quarter, helped by perceptions of an increasingly dovish Federal Reserve. He also reminded listeners that “the last gasp of the bull market is often the most violent upward… and we’re not there yet.” Despite his decades as a macro trader, Novogratz anchors his own crypto allocation with conservative asymmetry: “People ask me all the time… I’ve been roughly 70/30—70% Bitcoin, 30% other.” For newcomers outside crypto, he now sees room for materially higher exposure than in years past, citing the industry’s maturation. But all roads, in his framing, still lead back to Bitcoin’s dual-engine thesis: broaden the tent and let macro do the rest. “Adoption means orange-pilling people,” he said. “The more people we have bringing people into the tent, the price goes up.” The macro engine is unlikely to stall any time soon. The combination, he argues, is what ultimately propels Bitcoin to seven figures—ideally by steady climb, not crisis. At press time, BTC traded at $119,743. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin and Ethereum prices began to rally over the weekend, and interestingly, ETH was able to beat the $4,000 level for the first time in eight months. Bitcoin also recovered from its crash below $113,000 the previous week, taking the rest of the crypto market with it. Naturally, the reversal to bullish sentiment has brought investors out of the woodwork, with predictions now circling for where both Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are headed. Bitcoin To $150,000 And Ethereum To $8,000 Ex-Wall Street trader Vivek Raman has shared a prediction that has reignited hope once again in crypto investors. This comes after a notable weekend rally and the possibility of Bitcoin and Ethereum reaching brand-new all-time highs soon. Despite this already impressive rally, Raman does not believe that the move is over, sharing a near-term prediction for both cryptocurrencies. Related Reading: Bitcoin Nears $120,000 Again As El Salvador Opens Bitcoin Banks In the post, the pundit uses the ETHBTC chart, which has been on fire lately, to predict where both digital assets are headed next. Raman was responding to another crypto analyst, Pentoshi, who believes the ETHBTC chart was headed to 0.055 after moving above 0.036. Breaking this down, Raman explains that reaching this level would mean that the Ethereum price would be at $8,250 per coin, pushing it to a $1 trillion market cap. Amid this, he believes that the Bitcoin price could hit as high as $150,000 in the near term, making the likelihood of ETH touching $8,000 higher. The push for Ethereum to hit $8,000 comes amid ETH treasury companies gaining ground recently. Raman suggests that investors could rotate from Bitcoin treasury companies into ETH, triggering a Wall Street run on Ethereum. Looking at the longer timeframe, Raman forecasts that the Bitcoin price could hit as high as $250,000. At the same time, the Ethereum price is expected to hit $25,000, which would put the ETH market cap at a whopping $3 trillion market cap while Bitcoin moves in on a $10 trillion market cap. BTC And ETH Getting Big Predictions Raman is not the only crypto pundit who has shared major predictions for the Bitcoin and Ethereum prices recently. According to a report from Bitcoinist, another analyst Fapital has shared where they expect both Bitcoin and Ethereum to be by 2032. Related Reading: XRP Price Could Explode To $3.8 Amid Trend Continuation Fapital puts the Bitcoin price as high as $889,969, with Ethereum as high as $28,000 during this time. While both predictions span between shorter and longer timeframes, there is a similarity in the exception that the Ethereum price will eventually cross the $20,000 target. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s price movements often reflect broader macroeconomic trends. Analysts have uncovered a consistent pattern where BTC’s price follows these shifts with a roughly 12-week delay. With global liquidity now picking up steam, the macro-level signal now points toward a potential bullish phase ahead for BTC. How Liquidity Trends Fit Into Bitcoin’s Long-Term Cycle In an X post, Crypto expert MartyParty pointed out a compelling pattern in Bitcoin’s price behavior, stating that its high-timeframe follows global liquidity, indicated on the chart as the blue line following the red line lagged 12 weeks.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Miners Avoid Forced Selling: BTC Sits 7.4% Above Last Difficulty Bottom Currently, the global liquidity curve is on the rise, and the US has not started issuing new liquidity, meaning the current surge is being fueled externally. MartyParty argues that this global liquidity wave is primed to push BTC toward the $125,000 mark on foreign liquidity issuance. The current macro thesis suggests that BTC could reach $140,000, driven purely by the influx of foreign liquidity. In the meantime, the upcoming US liquidity issuance is expected to begin within the next quarter and will last up to a year to eighteen months.  Once the US liquidity kicks in, combined with expected rate cuts that will lower borrowing costs, it will create a compelling setup for the BTC price to potentially rally to $250,000 in the medium to long term.  Daan Crypto Trades has revealed that Bitcoin’s impressive resilience and steady upward trend relative to the US stock market have been trending since its bottom in 2022. Over this period, BTC has experienced only four moderate corrections ranging between 20% and 30%, while delivering a 420% gain from bottom to top. This steady outperformance suggests that BTC has carved out a strong position as a growth asset, especially in risk-on market environments. How Bitcoin’s Current Energy Value Growth Differs From Past Cycles Another notable development is the Bitcoin Energy Value, which just reached a new all-time high of $135,000 per BTC. According to StarPlatinum, in previous market cycles, reaching such peaks in Energy Value has been associated with sharp price moves or big drops. Related Reading: Bitcoin Moves Into $12 Trillion Sector: Why BTC In 401Ks Is A Big Deal Currently, the rise in Energy Value is gradual and steady, reflecting a more natural market progression. This data reveals several key points about BTC’s current state. First, BTC is stronger and more mature than ever, with demand steadily increasing over time. Despite hitting a new all-time high on Energy Value, the current price still sits about 15% below this metric, indicating there’s still room to run. Historically, the BTC cycle top occurred when its price surged 40% to 60% above its Energy Value. Meanwhile, many in the crypto community have spent three years saying BTC is close to the top, only to see those calls followed by waves of FOMO. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The Bitcoin price has regained momentum, rising toward the $120,000 level after experiencing a short-lived pullback earlier this week. However, recent technical analysis warns that an unfilled Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) gap near $116,500 may act as a barrier, potentially creating the risk of a price crash as BTC makes its way toward a fresh all-time high.  Bitcoin To Face Short-Term Crash With CME Gap A new Bitcoin price analysis by crypto market expert Ted Pillows suggests that BTC could encounter another major hurdle on its path to a record high. His analysis, shared on X social media, points to conditions in cryptocurrency’s current market structure that may trigger a temporary correction.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Risks Another Crash Following Recovering Into Bearish FVG Zone Notably, Pillows reported that Bitcoin recently reclaimed and even surpassed the $118,000 level after a volatile week that saw the asset shed $2,000 to fill a CME gap from last week. The analyst’s chart highlights this gap in Bitcoin’s price action on the CME futures market around $116,500. Historically, such gaps tend to be “filled” as price retraces to trade within the missing range, making them critical areas of interest for traders.  Pillows has stated that the unfilled CME gap near $116,500 will likely be revisited soon. This week’s market action already saw BTC drop sharply to close last week’s gap before rebounding, suggesting that the same pattern could play out again. If the $116,500 CME gap is filled, it could momentarily disrupt Bitcoin’s ascent, triggering a potential crash in its price.  Although this scenario appears bearish, the analyst reassures that any pullback is expected to be temporary. Pillows anticipates that a brief correction could lay the groundwork for a fresh leg upward. Technical patterns also indicate that once Bitcoin begins this upward push, it could rise toward uncharted territory and establish a new all-time high.  Other Analysts Share Their Take On Bitcoin CME Gap Further discussing the Bitcoin CME gap, market analyst ‘Daan Crypto Trades’ on X pointed out the recently formed gap that opened this week. According to the analyst, the gap lies between $116,500 and $118,400, standing out not only for its size but its proximity to Bitcoin’s previous ATH range. Related Reading: Analyst Shares Where Bitcoin, Ethereum, And XRP Prices Will Be By 2032 Daan Crypto Trades noted that most CME gaps tend to close within the same day; however, this latest gap has extended farther than usual. He explained that the gap near Bitcoin’s record high creates the ideal conditions for a price discovery. In such scenarios, CME gaps often stay open for longer periods, as bullish momentum can drive prices upward without retracement.  Notably, the expert’s chart analysis indicates that Bitcoin’s latest CME gap is unlikely to close until its price comes within 1% or 2% of it, placing that level just under $120,000. At present, BTC is trading at $121,313.  Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The potential integration of Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s largest cryptocurrency, into the United States 401(k) retirement plans could open the door to a $12 trillion investment pool, marking a significant shift in mainstream adoption. With millions of Americans contributing to this plan every two weeks, even a small allocation to Bitcoin could create a steady, long-term inflow of capital far exceeding the impact of spot Exchange Traded Fund (ETF).  Related Reading: Crypto Is Here To Stay—Even The SEC Can’t Do Anything About It, Analyst Says Bitcoin To Break Into 401(k) Retirement Market Bitcoin’s possible entry into the US $12 trillion 401(k) investment options could represent one of the largest structural inflows in the asset’s history. Tom Dunleavy, the Head of Venture at Varys Capital and a former senior analyst at Messari, declared in an X social media post on August 7 that cryptocurrencies in the 401(k) retirement plan are much bigger and more bullish news than the ETFs.  Dunleavy explained that the US currently has around 100 million Americans participating in the 401(k) plan, where a fixed portion of each paycheck is automatically invested into preselected portfolios of stock and bonds. These allocations are typically reviewed annually at most, creating a steady and predictable stream of capital into financial markets. Additionally, over the past two decades, this 401(k) plan has been a critical driver behind the resilience and long-term upward trajectory of US equities. According to Dunleavy, the total value of assets in the 401(k) plans stands at approximately $12 trillion, with around $50 billion in fresh contributions added every two weeks. The analyst suggested that even a small portfolio allocation to Bitcoin would represent significant and recurring inflows. He estimated that a 1% allocation translates to roughly $120 billion in continuous buying, 3% would equate to $360 billion, and 5% would reach a whopping $600 billion.  Unlike one-time purchases, Dunleavy notes that these allocations could continue indefinitely once set, creating a persistent demand floor for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. He also compared the 401(k) plan to ETFs, claiming that cryptocurrencies within the investment pool could have a greater long-term impact than the launch of Spot Bitcoin ETFs.  Regulatory Backdrop And BTC’s Path To Adoption Dunleavy has indicated that the possible integration of Bitcoin into the 401(k) investment menus is closely tied to the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA). He noted that ERISA establishes fiduciary standards designed to protect participants’ interests and ensure they receive promised benefits. Under this framework, most fiduciary risk is borne by consultants, who advise plan sponsors on asset allocation and investment options. Related Reading: Ripple-SEC Legal Drama Ends; XRP Skyrockets 13% For over a decade, these consultants have been researching the cryptocurrency market, building the knowledge base and compliance structures necessary to justify a modest crypto allocation—typically ranging between 1% and 5% for pensions and potentially 401(k) participants. Until recently, structural and regulatory constraints meant crypto could not be directly offered as an investment choice. With those barriers potentially shifting, consultants now have both the regulatory cover and the research credibility to recommend adding Bitcoin to retirement plans.  Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

The Bitcoin price has been enjoying some form of resurgence over the past week, returning above the significant $115,000 level again. The premier cryptocurrency briefly crossed the $117,000 mark on Friday, August 8, capitalizing on recent bullish developments in the United States. On Thursday, August 7, United States President Donald Trump signed an executive order allowing cryptocurrency investment in 401(k) plans. The Bitcoin price rallied on the back of this positive development and looks set to continue this ascent back to its current all-time high. Why 118,000 Might Be Crucial For Bull Run Resumption In a recent post on the social media platform X, prominent crypto analyst Titan of Crypto put forward an interesting outlook for the Bitcoin price over the coming days. According to the current setup, the flagship cryptocurrency could be on its way back to its record-high price of around $122,800. Related Reading: Analyst Outlines How Production Cost Determines XRP Price, But Is It Better Than Bitcoin? Titan of Crypto highlighted that the Bitcoin price has been on an upward trend since April 2025 and recently just bounced off the ascending trendline. Also, the market leader has filled the Fair Value Gap (FVG), a liquidity void often created by a sharp movement in price. However, the Bitcoin price seems to be approaching a critical level around the Kijun-sen (blue line) from the Ichimoku Cloud indicator. The Kijun-sen, also known as the Base Line, often represents the market’s equilibrium and can act as a key support and resistance level. As shown in the chart setup above, the market leader has climbed back above the Tenkan-sen (red line), which is an indicator of early momentum shift. Meanwhile, the Kijun-sen (hovering around $118,000) appears to be the only obstacle in the way of Bitcoin returning to its all-time-high price within the $123,000 region. However, a sustained close above the “blue line” could suggest a resumption of the bull run for the price of BTC. Moreover, the Chikou Span (orange line), which is a lagging indicator, remains in the bullish zone, supporting a broader uptrend narrative for the market leader. Bitcoin Price Overview As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin stands at around $116,880, with no significant movement in the past 24 hours. This sluggishness does not adequately reflect the coin’s activity over the past week. According to data from CoinGecko, the premier cryptocurrency is up by more than 3% on the weekly timeframe. Related Reading: Crypto Is Here To Stay—Even The SEC Can’t Do Anything About It, Analyst Says Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView