A crypto analyst has forecasted a 98% Bitcoin price crash following a substantial rally to $250,000. Interestingly, the analyst is confident that Bitcoin will eventually reach this ambitious quarter-million-dollar target. However, they caution that once profits are taken at this top, Bitcoin could decline significantly to new lows. Bitcoin Price Projected To Crash 98% On October 30, crypto analyst Gert van Lagen told his 106,700 followers on X (formerly Twitter) that the Bitcoin price could drop to the $24,000 range once it hits $250,000. Lagen revealed that many investors have felt overly confident that Bitcoin could never experience a 98% crash again, especially with the introduction of Spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). Related Reading: XRP Price Explosion Above $3 Is A Matter Of When, Not If: Analyst Reveals Timeline Countering this overconfidence, the crypto analyst asserted that ETF assets tend to lose significant value during periods of economic recession. Consequently the analyst predicts that the Bitcoin price could first experience a “blowoff” of up to $250,000, marking a historical milestone. At this point, many investors would start taking profits, triggering massive selling pressure as they liquidate ahead of potential price declines. Following Lagen’s analysis, once the market sentiment for the Bitcoin price shifts, institutional investors, who may have been the prime drivers for the $250,000 rally, are likely to sell off their holdings. Lagen has described this massive sell-off as the “shake out of the century,” when the Bitcoin price could plummet dramatically to 98% of its high. This suggests that after hitting $250,000, the BTC price could crash to $2,000, trading below Ethereum’s current price, which is trading at $2,635, according to CoinMarketCap. Highlighting the reasoning behind this unexpected bearish price crash, Lagen revealed that by plotting the Bitcoin price on the “Syslog scale,” it clearly shows a High-Time Frame (HTF) rising wedge, which points at a price target between $1,000 and $10,000. He also disclosed in a much earlier post that if Bitcoin does experience his projected shakeout and price decline to $1,000, it will take four halving events before the cryptocurrency can return to its $200,000 price high. BTC To Break Above $73,000 And Rally Higher As of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at $72,433 after experiencing more than a 7.8% increase this week. Lagen has stated that the Bitcoin price action points to a possible “triangle bearish continuation pattern,” which typically signals a potential downward trend in a cryptocurrency. Related Reading: End Of The Road For Solana? Analyst Predicts 77% Price Crash To $40 The crypto analyst has set a new target of $71,200 for Bitcoin, suggesting that if the cryptocurrency follows through with the triangle bearish continuation pattern, its price could decline significantly. On the flip side, Lagen has predicted that if Bitcoin can break the $73,000 threshold, it would invalidate the triangle bearish continuation pattern. This could indicate the end of the downtrend and potentially lead to a stronger upward momentum. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Florida’s Chief Financial Officer, Jimmy Patronis, has formally requested that the state’s pension fund managers explore the feasibility of investing in Bitcoin, positioning the state to potentially adopt BTC as a strategic reserve asset. In a letter dated October 29, 2024, addressed to Chris Spencer, Executive Director of the Florida State Board of Administration (SBA), […]
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise Asset Management, addressed a pressing question among investors: Does the US dollar need to collapse for Bitcoin to reach a valuation of $200,000 per coin? Hougan’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s ascent to such a price level does not depend on a decline in the US dollar’s value but rather on Bitcoin’s maturation as a store-of-value asset and global economic factors increasing demand for such assets. Bitcoin Can Reach $200,000 Without US Dollar Collapse In a series of posts on the social media platform X, Hougan recounted a conversation with a financial advisor who posed the question over dinner. “Does the US dollar need to collapse for Bitcoin to hit $200,000? The answer is ‘no.’ Here’s why,” Hougan wrote. Hougan explained that investing in Bitcoin involves making two distinct bets. First, “Bitcoin will succeed in establishing itself as a new ‘store of value’ asset.” Currently, Bitcoin’s market capitalization is approximately 7% of gold’s $18 trillion market. Hougan noted, “If it ‘matures’ and becomes 50% the size of gold, every Bitcoin is worth over $400,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Skyrockets Above $71,000: Key Reasons Explained Second, “Governments will abuse fiat currencies and increase demand for ‘store of value’ assets.” If the market for store-of-value assets triples in size due to such mismanagement, and Bitcoin maintains its 7% market share, “each Bitcoin is worth over $200,000.” He emphasized that these two arguments are independent but can compound. “If Bitcoin matures and the store of value market doubles, you quickly get to seven figures. For what it’s worth (FWIW), I think this is the most likely scenario eventually,” Hougan stated. Related Reading: Bitcoin Volatility To Peak By November 8 As ‘Trump Trade’ Intensifies – Report Addressing the initial question directly, Hougan asserted, “So, no, the dollar doesn’t need to collapse for Bitcoin to hit $200,000. All you need is Bitcoin to continue on its current path of maturing as an institutional asset.” He added that both factors—BTC’s maturation and potential fiat currency abuse—are increasingly likely to occur simultaneously. “That’s why Bitcoin is surging toward all-time highs.” The discussion continued with input from Kevin Brent Cook, a user on X, who added nuance to Hougan’s explanation. “Concise, clear, and simple,” Cook remarked. “I would only add that the reason a ‘collapse’ isn’t necessary is that under ‘abusing fiat’ comes the steady grind of deficit-driven dollar inflation (the US writes endless checks that never bounce), which naturally creates more currency chasing all assets.” Hougan concurred with Cook’s assessment, responding with a succinct “Agreed.” At press time, BTC traded at $72,445, up 23% in the last 20 days. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Crypto analyst Tony Severino has said that the Bitcoin price is approaching the strongest part of the bull run. Based on his analysis, Tony provided insights into how high the flagship crypto could rise as it approaches its peak in this market cycle. Bitcoin Price Target For Strongest Part Of This Bull Run Tony revealed in an X post that the Bitcoin price could reach a market top of $133,000 in this bull run. He explained that the BTC 2-month Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching 70, which has ignited the strongest part of every past bull run. In 2012, this led to a price surge of 11,000%. Meanwhile, it led to a price rally of 2,700% and 437% in the 2016 and 2020 bull run, respectively. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Is About To Complete This Breakout To A Descending Megaphone Pattern, Is $1 Next? The analyst noted that each peak in the successive bull run has been roughly around 20% of the previous cycle peak. Therefore, 20% of the 437% rally recorded in the 2021 bull run will put the Bitcoin price at this $133,000 price target. A potential rise to this target would give those buying BTC at its current price level a return of around 87%. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez also suggested buying the Bitcoin price as this level may not be a late entry. In an X post, he explained that the Market Value To Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has crossed over its 365-SMA (Simple Moving Average), a development that often signals major bull rallies. He added that this golden cross has just happened again. The analyst’s accompanying chart showed that the Bitcoin price increased by 236% the last time this happened. Therefore, this indicates that despite the recent rally above $73,000, there is still so much upside for the flagship crypto in this market cycle. BTC Could Rise To $462,000 Ali Martinez provided a more bullish outlook for the Bitcoin price than Tony regarding how high the flagship crypto could rise in this bull run. In an X post, he noted that BTC peaked between the 1.618 and 2.272 Fibonacci retracement levels in the past bull cycles. Related Reading: Analyst Says XRP Price Is Ready For A Breakout As Metrics Turn Bullish, What To Expect If the Bitcoin price were to follow a similar pattern, Martinez remarked that the next BTC top could land between $174,000 and $462,000. Predictions on what could mark the top for Bitcoin in this market cycle continue to differ, although the consensus remains that the flagship crypto would rise above $100,000. Experts like Standard Chartered have even predicted that the Bitcoin price could rise above this $100,000 target this year if Donald Trump wins the US presidential elections. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $72,300, up almost 2% in the last 24 hours according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
The Royal Government of Bhutan has transferred approximately 929 Bitcoin (BTC), valued at around $66.16 million, to the crypto exchange Binance. On-chain data service Lookonchain first reported the transaction via X. The transfers occurred in two tranches: an initial 100 BTC (approximately $7.1 million) at 9:09 am UTC, followed by an additional 839 BTC (about […]
Recent market inflows and dynamics have seen the Bitcoin price breaking free from a 7-month descending broadening wedge pattern. According to crypto analyst Gert van Lagen, Bitcoin’s breakout last week could signal the onset of a major price continuation phase as the bulls aim above the $70,000 mark. Particularly, Van Lagen highlighted that Bitcoin’s ability to successfully retest the upper trendline of this pattern lends strong momentum to the current bullish structure. The descending broadening wedge pattern is a reversal structure in technical analysis, often hinting at a strong trend upon breakout. Bitcoin’s ability to breach the upper trend line reinforces the likelihood of bullish momentum, lending voice to a new all-time high in the coming weeks. Bullish Retest Validates Strong Support For Next Rally At the time of van Lagen’s analysis, the Bitcoin price was retesting a bottom-sloping trend line, which has capped its price rallies since it reached an all-time high of $73,737 in March. By then, Bitcoin had already peaked out of this trend line in the descending broadening wedge and was already on the third candle. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETFs Reach $3 Billion Inflows In October, Retail Investors Lead The Charge – Report As Bitcoin bounced from the upper trend line, van Lagen described this as a “successful bullish retest.” Furthermore, he noted the importance of a bullish trajectory for this pattern, highlighting that the breakout direction is upward 79% of the time. With the Bitcoin price now successfully above this wedge, this next phase could see the cryptocurrency extend its gains and surge above $70,000. As such, the analyst also noted that reaching a new all-time high is essential to fully validating the wave continuation pattern. Key Bitcoin Price Levels To Watch While the breakout and retest offer promising technical signs, van Lagen warned of a critical downside level that traders should monitor. He pinpointed $58,700 as a crucial weekly closing price, below which the bullish structure would be invalidated. In his view, a close below this threshold would disrupt the quick wave five continuation and totally reverse the bullish setup to a new all-time high. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price To $24? Analyst Says No One Will Believe It Until It Happens Interestingly, Bitcoin has managed to push to the upside since this breakout. Particularly, the cryptocurrency has extended gains and has now broken above $71,000 for the first time since June. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $71,150, having reached an intraday high of $71,450 in the past 24 hours. As it stands, Bitcoin is only 3.6% away from reaching uncharted price territories. The only key price resistance level to watch at this point would be the current all-time high. Many Bitcoin metrics point to the continuation of bullish Bitcoin price momentum, at least in the short term. The Bitcoin open interest is now at its highest point of $42.6 billion, which relays a high level of trading activity among Bitcoin traders. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
The Bitcoin price has surged past the $71,000 mark today. Over the past five days, Bitcoin’s price has rallied by more than 8.5%, climbing from $65,600 to as high as $71,118 on October 29. In the last 24 hours alone, the BTC price has increased by 3.8%. This upward momentum can be attributed to four key factors: #1 Bitcoin ETFs Attract Massive Inflows The surge in Bitcoin’s price is closely linked to substantial inflows into Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). Yesterday witnessed massive ETF flows totaling $479.4 million. BlackRock led the inflows with $315.2 million, followed by Fidelity at $44.1 million, Ark with $59.8 million, and Bitwise at $38.7 million. These significant investments coincided with Bitcoin’s price movement from $68,000 to over $71,000. Leading on-chain analyst James “Checkmate” Check highlighted a divergence between Bitcoin ETF inflows and CME Open Interest. He noted “We have a divergence between Bitcoin ETF Inflows and CME Open Interest. ETF Inflows are ticking meaningfully higher, CME Open Interest is up, but not as much GBTC outflows are also minimal. We’re seeing true directional ETF inflows, and less so cash and carry trades.” The divergence suggests that investors are favoring direct exposure to Bitcoin through ETFs rather than engaging in cash and carry trades involving futures contracts. The carry trade strategy in the context of US spot Bitcoin ETFs and CME futures involves buying the ETF (tracking the spot price of Bitcoin) and simultaneously shorting Bitcoin futures on the CME. This approach aims to capitalize on price differences when futures trade at a premium to the spot price (contango). The notable shift toward ETFs indicates a bullish sentiment among investors, anticipating further price appreciation. #2 The “Trump Trade” Political developments are also influencing Bitcoin’s recent rally. Singapore-based QCP Capital commented on the impact of former President Donald Trump’s interview on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast, which has gained over 32 million views and driven his Polymarket odds above 66%. Despite “crypto” being touted as the “Trump Trade,” Bitcoin’s correlation with Trump’s potential election victory seems to fuel the Bitcoin price rally. QCP Capital also noted that Bitcoin is up only 8% this “Uptober,” compared to an average of 21% in previous Octobers. They stated, “If spot holds at these levels, this October would mark Bitcoin’s fourth-worst performance in the past decade.” With total BTC perpetual futures open interest across exchanges standing at $27 billion—approaching this year’s peak—a breakout above $70,000 could trigger new all-time highs, especially with more leveraged longs joining in. #3 Shorts Squeeze Amplifies Price Surge Market data indicates a significant shorts squeeze contributing to Bitcoin’s price spike. According to Coinglass, in the past 24 hours, 65,622 traders were liquidated, with total liquidations across the entire crypto market amounting to $228.51 million. Of this, $169.47 million were short liquidations. Specifically for Bitcoin, $83.61 million in shorts were liquidated. The largest single liquidation order occurred on Binance’s BTCUSDT pair, valued at $18 million. The substantial liquidation of short positions suggests that many traders were betting on a price decline and were forced to close their positions as the market moved against them. This mass unwinding of shorts can accelerate upward price movements as traders buy back into the market to cover their positions. #4 Whales Increase Buying Activity Large-scale investors, often referred to as “whales,” are playing a pivotal role in the current rally. CryptoQuant analyst Mignolet observed that Bitcoin’s rally continues, led by activity on the Binance exchange. He pointed out that Binance whales began significant involvement in the market two weeks ago during Asian trading hours, and recent declines in the Coinbase Premium Gap (CPG) alongside price increases are “a clear sign of Binance whales’ intervention. Mignolet emphasized that this should not be interpreted as a decline in US demand, but an even stronger buying pressure from Binance. Over the past two weeks, demand for US Bitcoin spot ETFs has surged, with a net inflow of approximately 47,000 Bitcoin. Since most ETF products use Coinbase, movements in CPG data are closely tied to ETF demand. He concluded, “The current Bitcoin price is being driven by Binance whales, with sustained inflows of US capital.” At press time, BTC traded at $71,340. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
The Bitcoin price is back above $70,000 for the first time in four months, with the ‘Uptober’ rally eventually happening as the month ends. This looks to be the start of significant price rallies for the flagship crypto as the market heads into November, which is also historically bullish. What To Expect From The Bitcoin […]
In an appearance on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at investment firm VanEck, forecasted a significant shift in global trade dynamics with the potential adoption of Bitcoin by BRICS nations. Sigel’s insights come amid growing fiscal policy concerns in the United States and increasing efforts by emerging economies to circumvent […]
In a new YouTube video titled “There Is No ETF Paper Bitcoin,” Fred Krueger, an investor at the crypto hedge fund 2718.fund, delved into the growing concerns surrounding US spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and their impact on the cryptocurrency’s price. Krueger aimed to dispel the fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) that have been circulating about “paper Bitcoin”—the notion that ETFs might be selling Bitcoin they do not actually possess—and to explain why Bitcoin’s price has not surged as dramatically as some might expect, despite significant ETF purchases. Krueger began his analysis by acknowledging the prevalent skepticism in the market. “There’s all this paper Bitcoin, and ETFs don’t really have the Bitcoin, and if they were buying all this Bitcoin, how come Bitcoin price is not higher?” he stated, encapsulating the core concerns of many investors. Historically, the concept of “paper Bitcoin” has been associated with exchanges that sold Bitcoin to customers without actually possessing the underlying assets. Krueger highlighted several high-profile instances where this practice led to significant losses for investors. He cited the case of Mt. Gox. Another example he provided was QuadrigaCX, a Canadian exchange that collapsed under mysterious circumstances. Founder Gerald Cotten allegedly died in India, taking with him the private keys to the exchange’s cold wallets, effectively locking away customer funds. “A lot of Canadians lost all their Bitcoin on this Quad exchange,” Krueger noted. Are “ETF Paper Bitcoin” Real? These historical events have contributed to the current apprehension about ETFs and the possibility that they might be engaging in similar practices—selling Bitcoin they do not actually hold, thereby suppressing BTC’s price through artificial supply. However, Krueger argued that ETFs, particularly those managed by established financial institutions, operate under a fundamentally different framework compared to unregulated exchanges. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bullish Outlook Confirmed By Critical Data – STH Overheating? Focusing on two leading ETFs—IBIT, the BlackRock ETF, and FBTC, the Fidelity ETF—Krueger emphasized the stringent regulatory oversight governing these entities. “Both of these ETFs are subject to very strict regulatory oversight, including the SEC but also other agencies in the US,” he stated. This comprehensive oversight includes requirements for complete transparency, regular audits, and the use of third-party custodians for asset verification. “They literally have to get a receipt of an asset from a third-party custodian,” Krueger added. In the case of IBIT, Coinbase serves as the third-party custodian. “Coinbase is itself a public company that is audited,” Krueger pointed out, noting that the public nature of Coinbase adds an additional layer of scrutiny and accountability. IBIT conducts audits of Coinbase, and both entities are subject to audits by the SEC and other regulatory bodies. For FBTC, custody is handled by Fidelity Digital Assets, a separate entity within Fidelity that specializes in the custody of digital assets, thereby ensuring specialized oversight and management. “The issuers of IBIT and FBTC are BlackRock and Fidelity, two of the largest and oldest financial institutions, and they have a vested interest in maintaining their reputation,” Krueger asserted. “Their reputation is at stake, and this is a big deal,” he emphasized, suggesting that these institutions would not risk their credibility by engaging in the sale of non-existent Bitcoin. Krueger contrasted BlackRock with entities like QuadrigaCX to underscore the disparity in regulatory compliance and operational scale. “BlackRock is highly regulated […] BlackRock has a robust corporate governance structure with committees for audit, risk, and compliance and very extensive internal controls,” Krueger added. Related Reading: Bitcoin To Hit $125,000 By Year-End If Trump Wins, Says Standard Chartered Addressing the core concern about ETFs holding “paper Bitcoin,” Krueger provided specific data to refute this notion. “The reality is the ETFs have zero pure paper Bitcoin,” he stated unequivocally. He highlighted that IBIT holds approximately 403,000 actual Bitcoins, while FBTC holds about 185,000 actual Bitcoins. “Together, these two ETFs hold almost 3% of the world’s total Bitcoin, or 588,000 Bitcoins—I think it’s 2.9%,” he calculated. Krueger acknowledged that some skeptics have attempted to analyze Bitcoin movement between specific dates to challenge these holdings. However, he emphasized that the facts are clear and verifiable. “We know how much Bitcoin these ETFs have; we know that it’s accounted for, and that’s a reality,” he insisted. Turning to the question of why Bitcoin’s price has not increased more dramatically despite significant ETF inflows, Krueger offered a nuanced explanation. He noted that Bitcoin is, in fact, up by 60% since the introduction of the ETFs, translating to a $600 billion increase in market capitalization. This growth has been fueled by approximately $20 billion in net inflows into the ETFs, resulting in a price multiplier effect of about 30x. “That’s historically about normal, maybe a little on the low side but not terribly so,” he assessed. Krueger attributed the moderation in Bitcoin’s price growth to substantial selling pressures from various sources. “There’s been a bunch of selling,” he explained. He detailed that Germany sold $3 billion worth of Bitcoin as well as Mt. Gox holdings. Additionally, FTX sold its GBTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust) stake earlier in the year, and the Digital Currency Group (DCG) sold assets to resolve lawsuits. “We had a lot of selling,” Krueger summarized. Speculating on the potential impact absent these selling pressures, Krueger suggested that Bitcoin’s price could have been significantly higher. “We probably would be at $90k if there wasn’t any selling,” he posited. At press time, BTC traded at $68,752. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
The Bitcoin price may be on the verge of hitting new all-time highs as a crypto analyst has unveiled the emergence of a new technical indicator called the “Bird Beak Sign.” Spotted on the Bitcoin Heikin Ashi chart, the analyst suggests that this technical pattern indicates a potential price rally is imminent. ‘Bird Beak’ Pattern Signals Path To $100,000 Optimism in the crypto community is soaring as a popular crypto analyst, ‘Trader Tardigrade’ has shared a bullish prediction for Bitcoin’s price outlook. In an X (formerly Twitter) post, the analyst uncovered a distinct technical pattern known as the “Bird Beak sign” in the Bitcoin Heikin AshiBitcoin Heikin Ashi chart, which is a type of candlestick chart used to spot market trend direction and predict future prices. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Flashes Bullish Pennant On Daily Heikin Ashi Chart, What This Means The Bird Beak Sign is a distinct chart pattern that resembles a beak and is created when the Heikin Ashi candlesticks cluster together in a tight consolidated range. Typically when a cryptocurrency consolidates, it means that its price is stabilizing before a potential rally upwards. In the case of Bitcoin, the recent Bird Beak pattern suggests consolidation is preceding an upward momentum. The analyst notes that in the past when Bitcoin showed the Bird Beak sign on the daily Heikin Ashi chart, it was followed by a strong uptrend. This upward movement was represented by multiple green candles, which showed upward movement. Sharing a price chart, Trader Tardigrade disclosed that on 2nd January 2023, a Bird Beak sign had appeared in the Bitcoin chart, triggering a price surge to $23,250 at the time. This same chart pattern was also observed on the 7th and 25th of February, 2024, with Bitcoin skyrocketing to $52,000 and reaching between $71,000 to $72,000, respectively. Trader Tardigrade has revealed that the present Bird Beak sign seen in Bitcoin’s Heikin Ashi chart formed on 27 October 2024. Based on these past signs, analysts have predicted that the new Bird Beak pattern could lead to another sharp increase for Bitcoin, potentially pushing its price to $114,000 this month. Analyst Expects Bitcoin Price To Hit $71,000 First In a more recent X post, Trader Tardigrade revealed that Bitcoin was breaking out of a Symmetrical Triangle at the tip of its 8-hour Heikin Ashi chart. Based on this new symmetrical triangle pattern, the analyst forecasts that a successful breakout could lead to a rally towards the $71,000 price target for Bitcoin. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price To $24? Analyst Says No One Will Believe It Until It Happens This bullish sentiment is shared by another popular analyst known as the ‘Titan of Crypto,’ who also projects Bitcoin’s next target at $71,000. This analyst has predicted that Bitcoin will reach this new target before the month closes, highlighting that the cryptocurrency’s monthly candle is looking significantly strong. It’s important to note that as of writing, the price of Bitcoin is trading at $67,856, marking a 1.3% increase in the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin is on its way to retesting the $69,000 price level again in the early hours of Monday, October 28, as the bulls look to start the week on a positive note. A notable break above $69,000 would set the stage for a sustained rally in the coming months. Speaking of sustained rally, the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model is pointing to an interesting trend in the long-term outlook for Bitcoin. Particularly, crypto analyst Plan B made reference to the Stock-to-Flow model to suggest that BTC is ready for the next phase transition. BTC Is Ready For Next Phase Transition The Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model is drawing attention as it signals that Bitcoin may be gearing up for a new phase transition that would solidify its price above $100,000. The S2F model, originally developed for commodities like gold and silver, measures an asset’s existing supply against the rate of new units entering the market. In the case of BTC, the S2F model calculates scarcity by taking its fixed supply of 21 million BTC into account, along with the block reward halvings that reduce new supply every four years. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Flashes Bullish Pennant On Daily Heikin Ashi Chart, What This Means Each halving event decreases the issuance rate, creating an increasing scarcity that the model correlates with price growth. According to the S2F chart shared by Plan B, these halvings have led to price increases in the months after, with the S2F model accurately forecasting Bitcoin’s transitions into new price levels. Bitcoin last halved in April 2024, resulting in the block reward slashing from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. According to the S2F chart, past Bitcoin halvings have always started the price transition into a new phase. The 2020 halving, for example, kickstarted the transition into a new phase above $10,000 that culminated in BTC reaching the previous all-time high of around $66,000. Now that the April 2024 halving is six months behind us, the effects of the halving are starting to be factored into the supply and demand of Bitcoin. As such, Bitcoin is looking prime for a phase transition above $100,000. What Does This Mean For Bitcoin Price? As past phase transitions have played out, a phase transition above $100,000 would solidify the Bitcoin price above this level. With the $100,000 price level now serving as a price floor, this would give the Bitcoin price the support to keep increasing in the months after. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price To $24? Analyst Says No One Will Believe It Until It Happens Previous phase transitions have always led to a new peak before another halving. The anticipated peak for this phase is just below $1,000,000. If past trends hold true, the Bitcoin price could reach this impressive milestone ahead of the next halving, which is expected to take place in 2028. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $68,340. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
The Bitcoin price could see its price surging dramatically to $200,000, with the formation of a new Cup and Handle pattern. While the pioneer cryptocurrency has been slowly recovering from bearish trends to reach the $70,000 mark, a rally to $200,000 would mark a historical milestone and a new All-Time-High (ATH) for BTC. Technical Pattern Signals $200,000 Rally Ahead Popular crypto analyst, Mags has unveiled a new technical pattern in the Bitcoin price chart. According to his post on X (formerly Twitter), Bitcoin is currently forming “a massive cup and handle pattern,” indicating a potential for a major rally. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Flashes Bullish Pennant On Daily Heikin Ashi Chart, What This Means Mags revealed that the Bitcoin price has just moved past the handle portion in the technical pattern, indicating a positive signal for a breakout that could start a bullish phase. As its name suggests, a Cup and Handle pattern is a key technical chart pattern that resembles a cup and handle. In this chart pattern, the cup is in the shape of a U and is considered a bullish signal, while the handle represents a slight downward drift, which indicates a potential buying opportunity to go long. Mags observed that since Bitcoin has just broken past the handle, the next level is to watch the “neckline” which serves as a resistance point. If Bitcoin can break through the neckline, it’s price could surge dramatically or like the analyst says “go vertical.” This bull rally could see Bitcoin’s price driving towards $200,000, marking a new all time high for the cryptocurrency. Currently, the price of Bitcoin is trading at $66,972, reflecting a slight 2.02% decrease in the past seven days, according to CoinMarketCap. While Mags has projected a $200,000 price increase for Bitcoin, the analyst has also forecasted even higher price targets in previous X posts, suggesting that a $200,000 price level may be conservative for the world’s first and largest cryptocurrency. Bitcoin Price Peak Set At $300,000 In another X post on October 24, Mags disclosed that Bitcoin is about to enter its price discovery, suggesting an imminent breakout to new levels. Price discovery is the process by which an asset’s true market value is determined, and for Bitcoin, it suggests when its price could reach fresh highs. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Says Ethereum Will Outperform Bitcoin And Solana, Is $12,000 Possible? Sharing a historical Bitcoin price chart, the analyst pinpointed instances where the cryptocurrency entered a price discovery before reaching a peak. In 2014, BTC hit a peak, then bottomed out in 2015 before reaching another price high in 2018. A similar price action occurred between 2019 and 2024, with BTC achieving a bottom in 2019 and peaking in 2021. Following this historical price trend, Mags indicated that Bitcoin hit its bottom in 2023 and is now about to enter its price discovery. Once the cryptocurrency does, it could signal a surge to a new all-time high, which Mags has set at an impressive $300,000. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
The Bitcoin and Ethereum price have crashed in the last 24 hours, dropping below $67,000 and $2,500, respectively. This price crash came following news about the alleged investigation into the USDT issuer Tether. Meanwhile, Israel’s attack on Iran was also a contributory factor. Why The Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Crashed The Bitcoin and Ethereum price […]
In a recent SEC filing dated Thursday, October 24, Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) revealed that an “Assessment of Investing in Bitcoin” will be a voting item at its forthcoming shareholder meeting on December 10. This development has ignited discussions within the investment community about the potential direction of Microsoft’s treasury strategy and the likelihood of […]
The Bitcoin price is slowly breaching the $70,000 mark, showcasing steady upward momentum despite downward pressure from the bearish performance of the US equities market. Taking note of Bitcoin’s recent price movements, a crypto analyst has suggested that the pioneer cryptocurrency could be gearing up for a strong bull wave that could drive its price by over 70%, pushing it past the $100,000 milestone. Here’s How High An Analyst Project’s Bitcoin’s Next Price Popular crypto analyst, Javon Marks revealed in an X (formerly Twitter) post on Thursday that Bitcoin’s recent price movements were signaling an impending bull rally. The analyst observed that Bitcoin’s current market conditions resemble past patterns and trends. Related Reading: Ethereum Price At $10,000: Symmetrical Triangle Breakout Predicts Big Gains Marks presented a detailed chart depicting Bitcoin’s price action from 2023 till date. The analyst noted that the Bitcoin price had formed a Hidden Bull Divergence pattern in 2023, spanning from February to November. Similarly, the cryptocurrency is currently developing another Hidden Bullish Divergence pattern, beginning at the start of the beginning of the year and appearing to extend towards year-end. Based on these parallel price movements, Marks suggests that Bitcoin is poised for a significant rally to new highs soon. The analyst projects that Bitcoin’s next target is presently 70% above its current price, with the potential to surge as high as $116,652 as it experiences one of the most explosive bull waves ever seen. From Mark’s X post, it can be seen that the analyst has consistently projected the $116,600 price target for Bitcoin. His earliest Bitcoin prediction of this all-time high was on September 12, when he claimed that Bitcoin’s rise to over $116,600 was still 100% away. Mark’s unwavering confidence in this price target suggests a strong conviction that Bitcoin is poised to reach a new ATH this cycle. Currently, the price of Bitcoin is trading at $67,601, marking a 1.31% increase in the last 24 hours and a 5.86% increase over the past month, according to CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin Price Could Jump Even Higher Than $116,000 Another well-known crypto analyst, identified as ‘Yoddha’ on X has presented a Bitcoin price chart highlighting its next bullish price target. With a caption that reads: “When in doubt, zoom out,” the analyst has expressed his confidence that Bitcoin is set to skyrocket this season. Related Reading: Analyst Says Dogecoin Price Looks ‘Ready’, Predicts 5,202% Surge In the price chart, the analyst pinpointed his next target for Bitcoin, indicating that the cryptocurrency could see its price soaring between $130,000 to $170,000. This price surge is expected to occur around 2025 when the bull market is fully underway. Conversely, Elja, a market expert on X, has projected a more conservative price target for Bitcoin, expecting the cryptocurrency to soar to a new ATH of around $94,000. However, the analyst believes that this massive price breakout will begin in October. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
In a major move towards blockchain innovation and interoperability, Cardano has announced a new partnership with BitcoinOS (BOS), a smart contract operating system for Bitcoin, the world’s first and largest cryptocurrency. The new alliance will be aimed at unlocking Bitcoin’s trillion dollar liquidity for ADA investors and creating new opportunities for cross-chain capabilities for Web3. […]
In a recent interview with journalist Madison Reidy, Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, ignited significant controversy within the Bitcoin community over his remarks on custody and regulation. Addressing concerns about the risks of large amounts of BTC being held by third-party custodians and major institutions, Saylor argued against self-custody and downplayed fears of increased seizure […]
Crypto analyst MMBT Trader has revealed that the Bitcoin price is retesting a bullish channel at the $65,000 price level. He further mentioned what market participants should expect if the flagship crypto holds above or breaks below this bullish channel. Bitcoin Price Retesting $65,000 And What Could Come Next MMBT Trader mentioned in a TradingView post that the $65,000 support zone is now the major daily support, and market participants can expect a valid retest of the channel breakout. The analyst claimed that if the Bitcoin price holds this support, investors can expect a “heavy pump”, which could lead to a new all-time high (ATH). Related Reading: Analyst Says Dogecoin Price Looks ‘Ready’, Predicts 5,202% Surge However, if the Bitcoin price fails to hold the $65,000 bullish channel, such a breakout to the downside would lead to a free fall to the $60,000 support level. MMBT Trader even suggested the possibility of BTC retesting $50,000 if it fails to hold above $65,000. Meanwhile, a breakdown means that the flagship crypto could range for a while before it makes another attempt to break its ATH at $73,000. Analyst Justin Bennett also recently highlighted the $65,800 range as the first test for the Bitcoin price. He had also indicated that BTC could drop to around $63,000 if it fails to hold above this level. However, a successful hold above this price range would invalidate his trade setup. The Bitcoin price has so far held well above $65,000 since it again reclaimed $67,000 after the price crash two days ago. However, Bennett indicated that BTC isn’t yet in the clear despite the bounce on October 23. He claimed there is no confirmed bottom as long as the flagship crypto is below $68,200. BTC Needs A Weekly Close Above This Level In an X post, crypto analyst Rekt Capital mentioned that a weekly close above $66,200 would be confirmed as a successful retest. He noted that the flagship crypto was showing promising signs so far, having already produced a wick below the $66,200 price level and returned above it. Related Reading: Brace For Impact: Court Orders Massive LUNC Burn As Part Of $4.5 Billion Settlement For Terraform Labs His accompanying chart showed that the Bitcoin price drop below $66,200 before the weekly close could lead to further breakdown below the $60,000 support level. Meanwhile, bear analyst CrediBULL Crypto predicted that the Bitcoin price could retest the $68,000 range to “bait in some final longs” before it suffers a “rug pull” to the $60,000 support level. The analyst is one of those who believe that it is still too soon to call for a new ATH for BTC based on his belief that the flagship crypto still needs to retest the lower range. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $67,000, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Alan Santana, a crypto analyst on TradingView, has predicted that the Bitcoin price could potentially experience a drastic decline to new lows around $35,720, driven by muted buying volume. The analyst has declared that the current state of the market is bearish, highlighting potential manipulation from whale investors. Bitcoin Price Could Crash To $35,720 According to Santana, Bitcoin has witnessed 75 days of bullish activity but has not reached projected new price peaks, currently trading within a lower high below $70,000. While the cryptocurrency did hit an All-Time High (ATH) in March, surging past $73,000, Santana has concluded that the general market has become relatively bearish. Related Reading: Dogecoin Flashes Sell Signal After 30% Rally – Time To Sell? He disclosed that most of the Bitcoin price action between August 5 and to present day is forming part of an inverted correction, which suggests that prices have been rising but without reaching new peaks. Santana also declared that the current Bitcoin price action confirms that there is no bullish momentum. He attributed this lack of momentum to muted whale activities, highlighting that there are currently no buyers or buying volume at the current market level. Due to these bearish conditions, Santana has predicted that Bitcoin could end up crashing to $35,720, representing a massive 46.68% decrease to new lows. This also means that Bitcoin’s price will drop by almost half, triggering panic and fear amongst retail and whale investors. Contrary to Santana’s bearish analysis, the price of Bitcoin is up by 5.56% and trading at $68,203, according to CoinMarketCap. The cryptocurrency is gradually increasing to reach the $70,000 mark, driven by positive changes in market sentiment and the historically bullish Q4. Although Santana has stayed firm in his bearish predictions of Bitcoin due to limited buying power, the analyst has also received severe backlash from various crypto community members. One member criticized Santana’s bearish Bitcoin prediction, suggesting that there were flaws in his analysis. Others accused the analyst of attempting to manipulate investors by using a Bitcoin chart from a Blofin exchange, which typically has lower transaction activity. Bitcoin Market Manipulation And Bears Despite the heat from crypto members, Santana believes that market manipulation has led to the current bearish price action in Bitcoin. The analyst highlights that Bitcoin’s price can be artificially manipulated by large holders or so-called Whales. Related Reading: FLOKI Breaks Out Of Downtrend: Analyst Predicts 200% Rally To New All-Time High He stated that these whales can push the price of Bitcoin up hoping that retail investors will dive into the market and buy, ultimately triggering a bullish wave. According to Santana, if there are no genuine Bitcoin buyers, the alleged manipulation could backfire, possibly leading to losses for said market manipulators. Santana has revealed that retail investors are no longer easily fooled into buying Bitcoin at the top, showing more caution due to previous cycles of manipulation and hype. He also disclosed that buyers are not swayed by exaggerated predictions of substantial future gains by analysts, claiming that Bitcoin could reach $3,000,000. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
In a stark critique of the European Central Bank’s latest research, prominent analyst Tuur Demeester has labeled the ECB’s new publication as a “true declaration of war” against Bitcoin. The ECB’s paper, titled “The Distributional Consequences of Bitcoin,” authored by Ulrich Bindseil and Jürgen Schaaf, has ignited a fervent response from the BTC community. The […]
Crypto analyst Ash Crypto has alerted the crypto community that $33.14 billion is at risk if the Bitcoin price reaches $72,462. This relates to the short positions that could be liquidated if the flagship crypto hits that price target, a development that will be bullish for BTC. Almost $33.14 Billion Will Be Wiped Out If Bitcoin Price Hits $72,462 Ash Crypto mentioned the liquidation alert in an X post, revealing that $33.14 billion worth of shorts will be liquidated if the Bitcoin price hits $72,462. These BTC bears are already in danger of getting liquidated, considering that the flagship crypto is fast approaching the $70,000 price level. This could pave the way for an extended rally to this liquidation price and even beyond. Related Reading: XRP Price Prediction: Analysts Turn Bullish As ‘Something Big Is Coming’, Here’s What The liquidations of these Bitcoin shorts could be bullish for the flagship crypto, leading to an extended rally to new highs, especially with the current ATH of $73,00 being in sight once the price hits $72,462. However, there is also a scenario where the Bitcoin price could correct to flush out overleveraged longs before it continues with its move to the upside. For now, the Bitcoin price undoubtedly boasts a bullish outlook, considering how the flagship crypto has rallied since the start of this week. BTC briefly touched $69,000 on October 18, further providing optimism that the crypto could reach a new ATH soon enough. Standard Chartered recently predicted that it will likely happen before the November 5 US elections. Although that remains to be seen, it is worth mentioning that Bitcoin’s demand is again on the rise, which could fuel this rally to a new ATH. Specifically, the Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which fueled the run to a new ATH earlier in the year, are again actively accumulating. SpotOnChain data shows that these Bitcoin ETFs witnessed a net inflow of $2.13 billion this week. BlackRock, in particular, added $1.14 billion worth of BTC to its holdings. Bear Analyst Warns Crypto Traders Analyst Justin Bennett, known for bearish analysis, has warned traders to be cautious about trading amid this recent Bitcoin price rally. He stated that things do not add up and that staying cautious during periods like this is the best way to survive. He added that he won’t be making any bold predictions at the moment because the data is conflicting. Related Reading: Expert Calls On Ripple Community To Collectively Send XRP Price On 1,800x Rally To $1,000 However, he suggested that market participants shouldn’t be excited about Bitcoin’s breakout from the seven-month range. This followed his statement that the rally was primarily perp-driven and that open interest is back at its late July peak. Crypto analyst CrediBULL Crypto, who has been a Bitcoin bear lately, also warned that the Bitcoin price rally is being driven by the perpetuals market. In a recent X post, he noted that open interest has officially surpassed the level it was at before the last BTC drop from $70,000 to $49,000. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
The Bitcoin price has now broken above the $68,000 mark amid a run of a 12% price increase in the past seven days. However, analysis says the Bitcoin price will not stop this surge anytime soon. According to a detailed analysis posted on TradingView, a well-known crypto analyst has shared insights suggesting that Bitcoin is on track to climb even higher to reach an ambitious target of $95,000, but USDT.D needs to break below the lower boundary of a triangle first. Interesting Take On Bitcoin Price Outlook The analyst in question, known as TheSignalyst, takes an unconventional approach to analyzing Bitcoin’s price movement by relying on a lesser-known but intriguing metric. Related Reading: XRP Price Prediction: Analysts Turn Bullish As ‘Something Big Is Coming’, Here’s What According to TheSignalyst, the USDT.D chart, which tracks the dominance of the stablecoin Tether (USDT) in the cryptocurrency market, efficiently tracks the overall sentiment of the crypto market. Though not widely used by mainstream analysts, this metric has proven useful in predicting market tops, bottoms, and future price action. According to the USDT.D chart, the USDT dominance has been playing out a descending triangle pattern since the first days of August. Since this period, the USDT dominance has ranged between 6.5% and 5.34% of the total crypto market cap up until the time of writing. As the analyst noted, as long as USDT dominance remains within the descending triangle, Bitcoin’s price is likely to continue consolidating in a range. However, TheSignalyst adds that for Bitcoin to truly enter a bullish run, the USDT dominance needs to break downward. Specifically, it would have to fall below the lower boundary of the descending triangle and drop beneath 5.2% of the total crypto market cap. What Does This Mean For The BTC Price? As the largest stablecoin, the USDT dominance can reveal a lot about the prevailing sentiment among crypto traders. High periods of USDT dominance suggest investors are pulling out of riskier assets and parking their funds in stablecoins, while a decline in the USDT dominance suggests inflows into cryptocurrencies. Related Reading: BTC Held On Exchanges Hits Lowest Point In 5 Five Years, Here’s What It Means For Bitcoin Price In the case of TheSignalyst’s analysis, the USDT dominance breaking below 5.2% would signal reduced reliance on the stablecoin and a renewed appetite for riskier assets, paving the way for Bitcoin to embark on a more aggressive upward trajectory. According to the analyst, if this scenario unfolds, it could enable Bitcoin’s price to break past the $70,300 mark in the weekly timeframe. This level sits just above a descending trendline that has been stopping Bitcoin’s momentum since April, and a successful breakout could confirm the start of a much larger rally. In the case of such a breakout, the analyst suggests a strong surge towards the $100,000 price level. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $68,100 and is about 47% away from this six-figure target. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
The Bitcoin price started this week on a high in what was an unprecedented move for many market participants. After spending the early days of October to disappoint investors, the Bitcoin price banged over $66,000 for the first time in many weeks. Interestingly, this price action has seen the Bitcoin price once again approaching a […]
Bitcoin experienced a significant surge, climbing from a low of $62,050 on Sunday to a peak of $66,500 late Monday. As of Tuesday, the BTC price is slightly correcting below this key resistance level, but hovering above $65,000. Several critical factors have contributed to the rally, including a short squeeze coinciding with the upcoming US elections, strong demand in the spot Bitcoin market, and substantial inflows into US spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). #1 Short Squeeze And US Election Influence Yesterday’s price surge can be partly attributed to the liquidation of leveraged short positions. Singapore-based trading firm QCP Capital writes in their latest investor note that nearly $80 million worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum leveraged shorts were liquidated, applying upward pressure on the market. While some speculate that the postponement of Mt. Gox’s repayment deadline to October 2025 played a role, this news was already published on Friday, suggesting other factors were at play during Monday’s rally. Related Reading: Bitcoin Open Interest Hits Record $19.8 Billion—Is The $100K Rally About to Begin? “Although there could be many factors that could explain today’s move, it is quite an interesting time if we look at historical price action. We are in the middle of October and just three weeks away from the US elections,” QCP Capital notes. In both 2016 and 2020, Bitcoin remained in a tight trading range for months before initiating a significant rally approximately three weeks before the US Election Day. In 2016, Bitcoin doubled in price from $600 by the first week of January following the election. Similarly, in 2020, it surged from $11,000 to a high of $42,000 by January. This year, October—often referred to as “Uptober” due to its historically strong performance—has been underwhelming, with Bitcoin up just 1.2% compared to an average of 21%. The current rally, occurring three weeks before the US elections, suggests that history might be repeating itself, potentially leading to further price appreciation as investor optimism builds. #2 Strong Demand For Bitcoin For the first time since mid-2023, Bitcoin’s buy orders are matching sell orders in spot market order books across exchanges. Ki Young Ju, Founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, highlighted this development via X: “Bitcoin buy walls on all exchanges are now strong enough to neutralize sell walls.” This shift marks a significant change from the trend observed since May 2021. “Data from the last cycle (2020-2022). It’s the accumulated difference between quoted buy and sell volumes. Since May 2021, sell walls had been consistently thicker than buy walls until the end of the cycle,” Young Ju shared. #3 Surge In Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows Monday witnessed one of the highest Bitcoin ETF inflows on record, totaling $555.9 million—the largest net inflow day since June 3. This substantial capital influx was spread among several major asset managers. BlackRock received $79.5 million, Fidelity attracted $239.3 million, Bitwise accumulated $100.2 million, Ark Invest saw inflows of $69.8 million and the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) experienced inflows of $37.8 million. Related Reading: Bitcoin Nears Key Breakout: Last Three 200-Day MA Crossings Triggered ‘Parabolic Bull Runs’ Nate Geraci, President of The ETF Store and host of the ETF Prime podcast, commented on these inflows via X: “Monster day for spot btc ETFs… $550mil inflows. Now approaching *$20bil* net inflows in 10mos. Simply ridiculous & blows away every pre-launch demand estimate. This is NOT “degen retail” $$$ IMO. It’s advisors & institutional investors continuing to slowly adopt.” At press time, BTC traded at $65,750. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
The Bitcoin price briefly crashed below $60,000 for the first time since September. This price decline followed the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, which came in higher than expected. This macro data and factors like the US presidential elections are causing market uncertainty, leading to a bearish outlook for the flagship […]
Crypto analyst TradingShot recently revealed that the Bitcoin price is forming a similar fractal pattern to the one that happened in October 2023. This is bullish for the flagship crypto, considering what happened last year when the fractal pattern formed. Bitcoin Prices Flashes Fractal Similar To October 2023 TradingShot mentioned in a TradingView post that the Bitcoin fractal similar to the one that occurred in October 2023 is happening again. He explained that the similarities are more evident in the 1D timeframe, where the Bitcoin price currently ranges within the 1D 50-day moving average (MA) and the 1D 200 MA. According to him, BTC also traded similarly precisely a year ago in the first two weeks of October 2023. Related Reading: Dogecoin Vs. Bitcoin: Gauging The Performances Of Two Crypto Giants This Cycle In October 2023, BTC is said to have made a marginal break above the 1D 200 MA before quickly pulling back below it. TradingShot further revealed that the Bitcoin price started its “long-term aggressive rally” of the Channel Up after it tested and held the 1D 50 MA, peaking on March 14 this year, when it hit its current all-time high (ATH) of $73,000. Interestingly, Bitcoin tested and held this 1D 50 MA at the start of this month, indicating another long-term aggressive rally might be on the horizon. TradingShot claimed that as long as the 1-week 50 MA continues to hold as the long-term support, there is a high probability that the Bitcoin price could hit $100,000 even before the end of this year. From a fundamentals angle, market experts like Standard Chartered have also predicted that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 even before the US presidential elections on November 5. Meanwhile, Bernstein analysts expect BTC to at least come close to this price level based on their prediction that the flagship crypto could hit $90,000 if Donald Trump wins the elections. What Next For The Leading Crypto? The Bitcoin price has remained stagnant amid market uncertainty thanks to the macro data, the upcoming US elections and rising tensions in the Middle East. This has raised questions about what to expect next from the leading crypto with such a bearish outlook. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has provided some insights, predicting that BTC could soon lose the $60,000 support level. Related Reading: Standard Chartered Analysts Says Ethereum Price Will Reach $10,000 If This Happens While noting that Bitcoin remains stuck in a descending parallel channel, Martinez remarked that a recent rejection of the upper bounder could lead to a decline to the middle boundary at $58,000. He added that the BTC price could drop to the lower boundary at $52,000. According to him, a bullish breakout for Bitcoin won’t happen until its price clears $66,000. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $61,000, down almost 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
After weeks of significant volatility and uncertainty, Bitcoin is currently at a turning point. The recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut, coupled with the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, has led to erratic price movements, causing traders to navigate a landscape filled with anxiety. Despite this tumultuous environment, key data from CryptoQuant indicates that […]
In a surprising move, investment funds based on other altcoins failed to follow in the footsteps of crypto giants, with Solana, XRP, Cardano, and Litecoin witnessing inflows during the week. The latest weekly report on digital asset investment funds by CoinShares depicts a trend of weaker investment sentiment among institutional investors. After witnessing three consecutive […]
The Bitcoin price volatility is likely to surge in both directions following the recent approval of options for spot Bitcoin ETFs, according to Jeff Park, head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise Investments. In an interview with Anthony Pompliano, Park explained how these newly available options differ from existing crypto derivatives and why they could significantly impact the Bitcoin market dynamics. Why Bitcoin ETF Options Are A Game Changer Park outlined a comprehensive thesis in the interview, noting, “Volatility is not just a static measure of past performance; it reflects the distribution of potential outcomes and the severity of those outcomes.” He emphasized that the introduction of Bitcoin ETF options will bring new dimensions to how traders interact with Bitcoin, potentially amplifying both price rises and falls. This volatility, he argued, stems from the unique characteristics of options as financial instruments. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple Signals A Bullish Surge: Could A New ATH Be Near? While Bitcoin options are not entirely new—offshore platforms like Deribit and LedgerX already offer similar instruments—ETF options introduce a regulated market overseen by US authorities like the CFTC and SEC. This makes a profound difference, according to Park, because “removal of counterparty risk is something that crypto has not fully solved offshore.” He noted that the clearing mechanisms provided by the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) bring added security to these trades, which institutional investors have long demanded. More importantly, Park highlighted the advantage of cross-collateralization, which is not available on existing platforms that cater exclusively to crypto. “Cross-collateralization allows traders to use non-correlated assets, such as gold ETFs, as collateral in Bitcoin trades,” he explained. This flexibility increases liquidity and efficiency in the market. “You can’t do this on Deribit or any purely crypto-focused platform,” Park emphasized, calling it a “huge unlock” for the Bitcoin derivatives market. Park anticipates that the introduction of these options will magnify Bitcoin’s price swings. “For any well-functioning and liquid market, you need organic buyers and sellers to create natural demand and supply,” he explained. However, the real impact comes from how dealers hedge their positions, especially when they are “short gamma,” a condition where their hedging activities can intensify price movements. In practical terms, Park said, “Dealers who are short gamma must buy more Bitcoin as prices rise and sell more as prices fall, thereby adding to the volatility.” This dynamic is crucial to understanding how ETF options could push Bitcoin’s price to extremes in both directions. He also pointed out that, historically, most Bitcoin options activity has been driven by speculation, rather than risk management strategies like covered calls, which tend to reduce volatility. Related Reading: Here’s Where We Are In The Bitcoin Bull Cycle According To The Wall Street Cheat Sheet One of Park’s key points was the dramatic growth potential for Bitcoin’s derivatives market. In traditional markets like equities, the derivatives market is often 10 times larger than the underlying spot market. In contrast, Bitcoin’s open interest in derivatives currently represents just 3% of its spot market value, according to Park’s figures. “The introduction of ETF options could lead to a 300x increase in Bitcoin’s derivatives market size,” Park predicted. This growth would bring substantial new liquidity but would likely also drive volatility higher, due to the larger volume of speculative trades and the structural leverage introduced by options. “That’s an astronomical number for which there’s going to be new flows and liquidity coming into this market which will likely therefore add volatility,” Park stated. “In the global economy, derivatives markets are far larger than the spot markets,” he added, pointing to the fact that in traditional asset classes like equities and commodities, derivatives play a critical role in risk management and speculation. “Bitcoin is moving toward a similar structure, and that’s where we’ll see the most significant price movements and liquidity,” Park concluded. At press time, BTC traded at $62,334. Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com