Several market participants, including MSTR and OTC traders, kept demand steady, helping BTC stay resilient.
Bitcoin is trading near $67,300, well off its recent high of $74,000. One well-known analyst says that dip barely matters — he’s looking at a cycle average closer to half a million dollars. Related Reading: WAR Token Explodes 100%, Then Crashes 20% In Sudden Sell-Off A Model Built On Scarcity PlanB, the pseudonymous analyst behind the Stock-to-Flow model, says Bitcoin’s price during the current 2024–2028 halving cycle could average around $500,000, with a range stretching from $250,000 to $1 million. The model is built on a simple premise: as Bitcoin’s supply grows more slowly — thanks to halving events that cut mining rewards roughly every four years — and demand holds steady or rises, the price should follow. Reports indicate that PlanB is careful to frame the figure as a cycle average, not a ceiling or a guaranteed peak. Bitcoin halvings reduce the number of new coins entering circulation. The most recent one took place in April 2024. Historically, each halving has been followed by a significant price run. That pattern is the backbone of PlanB’s argument. ???? Bitcoin at $67k… but S2F model screams $500k avg this cycle (2024-2028)! ???? Is BTC massively undervalued & the ultimate buy opportunity? Or is S2F broken forever? ???? What’s your take, bull or bust? pic.twitter.com/QlBhOgSgGj — PlanB (@100trillionUSD) March 8, 2026 Not Everyone Is Buying It Crypto analyst Bobby A puts his estimate at $200,000 to $250,000 by 2026 or 2027 — still a major jump from current levels, but nowhere near PlanB’s midpoint. According to Bobby A, Stock-to-Flow works as a rough long-term guide but falls short when used to pin down specific price targets in complex markets. He argues the model captures Bitcoin’s broad growth story without accounting for the many variables that move prices in real time. My take is somewhere in the middle. In my opinion, Bitcoin is currently undervalued and will likely trade toward the $200,000 to $250,000 range as this cycle matures through 2026 and into 2027. That said, I do not subscribe to the idea that Bitcoin will reach $500,000 by 2028.… https://t.co/d8wu0skKuN — Bobby A (@Bobby_1111888) March 8, 2026 That skepticism is not without basis. Stock-to-Flow drew sharp criticism after Bitcoin failed to sustain the price levels the model projected during the 2020–2024 cycle. Some analysts wrote off the model entirely. Others say it was never meant to work as a precise forecasting tool to begin with — a nuance that often gets lost in headline-driven coverage. Related Reading: Stablecoin Market Breaks Records — USDC Controls 70% Of $1.8 Trillion Volume What’s Weighing On Bitcoin Now Several outside pressures have contributed to Bitcoin’s recent pullback. Geopolitical tensions and shifting inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds — which won US regulatory approval in early 2024 — have added to short-term volatility. Data shows that ETF inflows, which helped push Bitcoin to record highs earlier this year, have been inconsistent in recent months. Reports note that many analysts view the current period as a consolidation phase following the strong rally that carried Bitcoin above $72,000. Whether that consolidation leads to a renewed push higher — or signals a longer plateau — remains an open question. PlanB’s $500,000 average would require Bitcoin to climb more than seven times its current price before the cycle ends. That’s a large number. But in a market that went from under $20,000 to over $73,000 in roughly 18 months, some investors say stranger things have happened. Featured image from Free3D.com, chart from TradingView
Strategy, the company that has built its identity around hoarding Bitcoin, is now sitting on paper losses — and buying more anyway. The company’s average purchase price sits at roughly $75,985 per coin, well above where Bitcoin is trading today at around $66,850. Related Reading: WAR Token Explodes 100%, Then Crashes 20% In Sudden Sell-Off That gap has pushed Strategy’s net asset value below 1, meaning the stock is worth less than the Bitcoin it holds. It is a sharp reversal for a company that long commanded a premium over its own treasury. Another Round Of Buying Despite that, co-founder Michael Saylor posted the firm’s Bitcoin accumulation chart on X over the weekend with the message, “The Second Century Begins” — his recurring signal that another purchase is coming. Strategy’s most recent buy came in the final week of February, when the company added 3,015 coins for more than $200 million, bringing its total haul to 720,737 Bitcoin. At current prices, that cache is worth roughly $48 billion. The Second Century Begins. pic.twitter.com/stZzNhLgay — Michael Saylor (@saylor) March 8, 2026 Debt And Equity Keep Fueling The Buys The company has not paused its buying despite a broad market decline. Strategy continues to fund its purchases through debt and equity offerings — a model that works smoothly when Bitcoin is climbing, but draws harder scrutiny when prices fall. With its NAV now below 1, some investors are getting Bitcoin exposure at a discount through the stock, which is a dynamic that rarely worked in Saylor’s favor before. Data from SaylorTracker shows the depth of the current shortfall. The company’s unrealized loss grows wider with each dip in Bitcoin’s price, yet the firm shows no sign of changing course. Saylor has made clear in past statements that Strategy is not a short-term trade but a long-duration bet on Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Pressure Builds Across The Bitcoin Treasury Space Strategy is not alone in feeling the squeeze. According to reports, the broader Bitcoin treasury sector could see consolidation in 2026, with cash-generating businesses moving to absorb companies that simply accumulate coins without producing revenue. Related Reading: Stablecoin Market Breaks Records — USDC Controls 70% Of $1.8 Trillion Volume Wojciech Kaszycki, chief strategy officer at treasury firm BTCS, said companies trading below net asset value are under real pressure. Consolidating with another player, “sometimes two plus two equals six or more,” he said. Saylor has brushed off that path. He said mergers and acquisitions take too long and carry too much uncertainty, noting that deals which look attractive at the start can look very different six to nine months later. Whether another purchase is confirmed remains to be seen. But if history is any guide, the chart post rarely comes without a filing to follow. Featured image from mybrokerone.com, chart from TradingView
BTC rebounded from about $65,000 as crude oil retreated and institutional flows helped stabilize the market.
Bitcoin continues to trade below the $70,000 level as the broader crypto market navigates another period of heightened volatility. After several attempts to regain upward momentum, price action has remained unstable, reflecting ongoing uncertainty across global financial markets. Despite these short-term fluctuations, structural indicators suggest that bigger changes may be occurring beneath the surface of the Bitcoin market. Related Reading: The 31,900 Bitcoin Purge: Why March 4 Marked An Institutional Bitcoin Floor A recent report from CryptoQuant highlights a long-term trend that has been unfolding since 2022: a steady decline in the amount of BTC held on centralized exchanges. This shift accelerated following the collapse of FTX in November 2022, an event that significantly altered investor behavior across the crypto ecosystem. During that month alone, users withdrew more than 325,000 Bitcoin from exchange reserves, rushing to move their holdings into private custody. Today, total Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have dropped to levels last seen in 2019, currently sitting at roughly 2.7 million BTC. Among retail-focused centralized exchanges, Binance alone holds approximately 20% of that supply, reflecting its dominant role in global crypto trading. When institutional platforms are included, Coinbase Advanced emerges as the largest holder, with around 800,000 BTC stored on the exchange. Even so, this figure remains roughly 200,000 BTC lower than the levels recorded in July 2025, underscoring the continued reduction in exchange-held supply. Institutional Accumulation Reshapes Bitcoin Supply Dynamics The CryptoQuant report also notes that the decline in exchange reserves cannot be explained solely by the aftermath of the FTX collapse. While that event accelerated the movement of funds into self-custody, two additional structural developments have played a major role in pushing exchange balances back to levels last seen in 2019. The first major driver has been the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. At the time, exchange reserves were still above 3.2 million BTC. Since then, these investment vehicles have absorbed a significant portion of the circulating supply. Today, spot ETFs collectively hold around 1.3 million BTC, representing roughly 6.7% of the total supply. Custodial cold storage sequestering these holdings effectively removes a massive amount of Bitcoin from active exchange liquidity. A second structural factor is the emergence of Digital Asset Treasuries. An increasing number of companies have begun holding Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, collectively accumulating approximately 1.1 million BTC—close to 5% of total supply. Together, these developments are reshaping Bitcoin’s market structure. As ETFs and corporate treasuries lock up larger portions of supply, a growing share of BTC becomes embedded within institutional financial frameworks. Over time, this shift could gradually tighten available market liquidity and influence long-term price formation dynamics. Related Reading: Post-Crash Purge: XRP’s 60% Valuation Reset Meets a Record Low in Exchange Liquidity Bitcoin Consolidates Near $67K As Short-Term Momentum Weakens The 4-hour chart shows Bitcoin trading around $67,500 after a period of sharp volatility that unfolded throughout February and early March. Price initially declined from the $87,000 region, triggering a strong sell-off that pushed BTC briefly below $60,000 before buyers stepped in to stabilize the market. Since that capitulation event, Bitcoin has entered a broad consolidation phase, fluctuating mostly between $64,000 and $72,000. Technically, the chart highlights a weakening short-term structure. Bitcoin remains below the longer-term moving averages, with the 200-period moving average (red) trending downward and acting as overhead resistance. Each recent rally attempt has struggled to sustain momentum once price approaches this level, suggesting that sellers remain active during upward moves. Related Reading: The $1.35 Floor: How Extreme Negative Funding Is Priming XRP For A High-Velocity Trend Reversal Meanwhile, the shorter moving averages have begun to flatten, reflecting a temporary balance between buyers and sellers. The market is currently hovering around these shorter-term indicators, indicating indecision as participants reassess the broader macro environment. Volume activity remains relatively moderate compared with the spike seen during the February capitulation, suggesting that the most aggressive selling pressure may have already occurred. However, for a stronger bullish recovery to develop, Bitcoin would likely need to reclaim the $70,000–$72,000 zone and establish sustained trading above the descending longer-term average. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s rally back to the mid-$73,000 region did not last long as the leading cryptocurrency’s price action reversed as the week came to a close and fell back around $67,000 after momentarily regaining momentum last week, pulling Ethereum down with it till the ETH price also lost the $2,000 price level. However, the pullback of these leading cryptocurrencies is the product of a few forces colliding at once: a war nobody fully priced in and institutions quietly heading for the exits. Here is what happened. Spot Bitcoin ETFs: From Boosting Rally To Draining Liquidity One of the clearest reasons for Bitcoin’s reversal is that the same ETF complex that helped lift the price early in the week suddenly turned into a source of pressure. SoSoValue data show that US-based Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted strong inflows at the start of the week, including about $458.19 million on March 2, $225.15 million on March 3, and $461.77 million on March 4. Related Reading: Bitcoin Pattern Memory Predicts The Bottom, And It’s Below $40,000 That stretch helped Bitcoin climb as high as roughly $74,051 intraday on March 4, but the tone changed quickly after that. By March 5, spot Bitcoin ETFs had flipped to a net outflow of about $227.83 million, and on March 6, the outflow worsened to roughly $348.83 million, showing that institutional demand softened just as Bitcoin was testing resistance near the mid-$70,000s. Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Source: SoSoValue Unsurprisingly, Ethereum also saw its own exchange-traded funds flows deteriorate in tandem with Bitcoin. SoSoValue’s data show US Spot Ethereum ETFs started the week on firmer footing, with $38.69 million in net inflows on March 2, led by BlackRock’s ETHA at about $26.51 million. However, by the second half of the week, that demand had faded massively. Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded about $90.94 million in net outflows on March 5 and another $82.85 million in net outflows on March 6, with Fidelity’s FETH alone accounting for roughly $67.57 million of the March 6 withdrawal. Spot Ethereum ETFs. Source: SoSoValue Profit-Taking And Global Risk Aversion The final piece is the macro backdrop. The bounce to $73,000 to $74,000 invited short-term traders to lock in gains, especially after Bitcoin ran into a clear resistance band and failed to push through decisively. On-chain data shows that more than 27,000 BTC in profit were sent to exchanges by short-term holders within 24 hours. Related Reading: XRP Price At $100 Is ‘Inevitable’, Analyst Explains Why This Is However, investors are not dealing with only crypto-related concerns. Financial markets are still pricing in the conflicts in the Middle East. Iran responded to US-Israel attacks by not only firing retaliatory strikes but also effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, a passage for roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. That closure is what truly rattled markets. Once Bitcoin lost altitude, Ethereum followed with even more force. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $67,500. Ethereum, on the other hand, is trading at $1,975. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
It's been a historic 24 hours for crude oil, which soared to $120 per barrel overnight on Iran worries, but has plunged back to just above $80.
Macro strategist Mark Connors says war-driven spending, rising debt and lower interest rates could support bitcoin.
WTI crude oil, which soared nearly 30% to $120 per barrel overnight, has pulled back to $95, easing pressure on risk assets.
A crypto market analyst has outlined what he describes as a straightforward mathematical method that helped identify the bottom of Bitcoin’s previous bear market. By focusing on long-term Fibonacci levels and quarterly price behavior, the analyst argues that the same structural logic that marked the 2022 bottom is now shaping Bitcoin’s next macro phase. Simple Math That Identified The Bitcoin Price Bear Market Bottom In an X post shared on March 8, crypto analyst Chetan Gurjar revisited a prediction he made in December 2022 regarding Bitcoin’s bear market low. While he acknowledged that the timing of the call was slightly off by a few months, he stated that the price target itself proved accurate. Related Reading: Bitcoin Liquidation Map Predicts The Next Targets To Watch Out For The analysis referenced Bitcoin’s bear market bottom around the $15,000 region in late 2022, which the analyst had previously projected using this framework. His approach centers on macro Fibonacci extension levels plotted on the quarterly chart, with particular focus on the 1.618 Fibonacci level positioned near $62,084. The chart accompanying the explanation highlights how Bitcoin historically reacts to this macro level. During the 2021 bull cycle, Bitcoin repeatedly failed to break and sustain price action above the 1.618 Fibonacci level. The analyst pointed to the second and fourth quarter candles of 2021, both of which were rejected at that same zone. These repeated rejections signaled strong resistance at the time, reinforcing the significance of the level in the broader market structure. By mapping these macro levels across cycles, the analyst argues that long-term Fibonacci mathematics can help identify both extreme lows and potential expansion targets. Quarterly Fibonacci Retest Suggests Next Macro Phase The analyst’s latest chart interpretation suggests that Bitcoin’s relationship with the 1.618 Fibonacci level has shifted from resistance to support. After breaking above the $62,084 region on the quarterly timeframe, Bitcoin has not produced a quarterly candle close below the level since the breakout. The chart shows two notable retests following the move. In the second and third quarters afterward, Bitcoin briefly tested the level but managed to hold above it on a closing basis. One quarterly wick even dipped below $50,000 before reclaiming the $62,084 level. As of the current quarter ending in March, Bitcoin is again trading above the same macro Fibonacci level. According to the analyst’s interpretation, this behavior represents a bullish quarterly retest. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Price Bottom Hasn’t Happened Yet, Gives Timeline To Expect Reversal The projection drawn on the chart extends toward the next Fibonacci expansion level at 2.618, which sits near $393,874. Gurjar describes this level as the minimum macro target if the structure holds. The chart also signals potential volatility, suggesting price wicks could stretch toward the $500,000 region during the expansion phase. However, the analyst notes that deeper quarterly wicks remain possible depending on broader market conditions, including potential weakness in the altcoin market. Even with that caveat, the framework presents the current structure as a continuation pattern centered on Bitcoin holding the 1.618 Fibonacci level. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin has its own volatility gauge (BVIV), and that spiked in early February, suggesting crypto markets may have already experienced their panic phase.
Crypto analyst Coinvo has explained why Bitcoin may be close to a bottom, which could spark a rally to new highs. This comes as BTC continues to face downside pressure due to the rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Why Bitcoin May Soon Reach A Bear Market Bottom In an X post, Coinvo alluded to the Bitcoin monthly chart, noting that the leading crypto has hit its bear market at exactly 23 months after the all-time high (ATH) in every single cycle. BTC is currently sitting at 23 months right now, which the analyst noted is a sign to buy more Bitcoin, as this pattern has “never failed.” Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin $200,000 Target Remains Open, But There’s A More Realistic Target The analyst also predicted that Bitcoin could see a massive expansion once it bottoms, rallying to as high as $150,000. This means that BTC could still surpass its current ATH of $126,000, which it recorded in October last year. Meanwhile, in another X post, Coinvo revealed that Bitcoin is replicating the exact same bull market pattern that gold did in the 70s. He added that this pattern has never failed, suggesting BTC could soon see a bullish reversal. Bitcoin is currently facing downside pressure as the U.S-Iran war continues to escalate. The war has sent oil prices as high as $115 today, sparking concerns that this could drive inflation higher. However, Coinvo indicated that the rising oil prices may not be bearish for BTC. In an X post, he stated that most people think that rising oil prices are bearish for the leading because of inflation, but history says the opposite. This came as he revealed that BTC’s secret bull-run signal has just flashed for the fourth time in history. Bull Trap May Be Forming For BTC Popular crypto analyst Willy Woo warned that a bull trap is forming for Bitcoin, while also indicating that a bottom isn’t in yet. He stated that BTC is still “solidly” in the middle of its bear market through a lens of long-range liquidity. The analyst also noted that after rapid downward flushes like the market has seen, BTC tends to trade sideways and then mount a rally, testing resistance. Related Reading: Here’s What’s Driving The Bitcoin Price Crash Toward $60,0000 Willy Woo also revealed that current conditions are setting up a Bitcoin rally to test the mid-$80,000 range, which is the cost basis for short-term investors. This rally looks more likely, especially considering that BTC sold off fast in the early bear market. The analyst highlighted that investor flows have been in consistent recovery since mid-February, which could spark this rebound to $80,000. He added that expected volatility in equities is hinting at a switch to risk-on in the coming weeks. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $67,800, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
The company now holds 738,731 bitcoin purchased for about $56 billion and worth roughly $50 billion at the current price just shy of $68,000.
Reform UK leader backs London-listed company chaired by former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng as it expands bitcoin strategy.
A growing share of Bitcoin supply has slipped underwater, with CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost arguing that the market is now sitting much closer to historical bear-phase conditions than to a confirmed bull trend. His latest charts show 43% of Bitcoin supply held in UTXOs is currently in loss, leaving just 57% in profit. Darkfost is looking at the distribution of supply across Bitcoin’s unspent transaction outputs, a way of tracking how much coin supply is sitting above or below cost basis. In his reading, that metric has reached a zone that has historically marked the boundary between advancing bull markets and broader corrections. “Roughly one out of two investors is currently at a loss. More precisely, this refers to the supply held within each UTXO on Bitcoin. At the moment, 43% of that supply is in loss,” he wrote on X. He added that “historically, as the histogram shows, we usually see around 75% of the supply in profit,” describing that level as a “rough boundary between a bull trend and a market correction.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Must Not Drop Below $63,700, Analyst Warns That framing is central to the thesis. When the share of supply in profit rises back above roughly 75%, Darkfost said, bull trends have typically “confirmed and accelerated.” When more supply starts falling into loss, the opposite tends to happen: corrections deepen, confidence weakens and the market begins to resemble prior bear-market structures. With Bitcoin now at 57% supply in profit, he said conditions look “closer to those seen during deep bear market phases.” Still, he did not present the current setup as a one-way collapse. Darkfost said the market is showing signs of stabilization, which he linked to the current consolidation phase. But he also warned that the process may not be finished. “It is still possible that the market moves lower in order to shake out LTHs further and push the share of supply in loss toward around 45%, a level that has been reached during previous bear markets,” he wrote. Related Reading: Bitcoin Big-Money On The Move: Exchange Whale Ratio Spikes To 0.6 Macro Backdrop Weighs On Bitcoin His second chart ties that on-chain deterioration to a macro backdrop that has become less supportive for risk assets. As tensions around the Strait of Hormuz intensified, Darkfost argued, oil’s rally has added another layer of pressure to Bitcoin. “Since the beginning of the year, oil has gained more than 60%, a dramatic increase reflecting market concerns over the geopolitical situation,” he wrote. “This is not surprising, given that the Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 20% of global daily oil exports and nearly 35% of oil transported by sea. Any incident that blocks the strait or disrupts transit therefore has an immediate impact on oil prices.” He extended that argument beyond energy markets. Higher oil prices, he said, feed directly into inflation expectations and broader financial-market stress, a combination that has historically not favored speculative assets. “For a volatile and risky asset like Bitcoin, this type of environment is unfavorable,” Darkfost wrote. “Historically, periods when oil prices regain strength often coincide with BTC end-of-cycle phases. These moments also signal geopolitical tensions, which are not conducive to risk-taking or exposure to more speculative assets.” Taken together, the two charts sketch a market that is not yet definitively in a bear trend but is drifting toward a zone where that label becomes harder to dismiss. The immediate question is whether Bitcoin can rebuild the share of supply back into profit and reclaim the historical 75% threshold, or whether macro stress and further long-term-holder selling push the market deeper into loss territory first. At press time, BTC traded at $67,730. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Rising oil prices are shaking global markets, but the U.S. is largely insulated and bitcoin seems to be riding the wave alongside Wall Street.
There was little sign over the weekend of any de-escalation in the war against Iran.
An on-chain data expert has identified a critical level that the Bitcoin price must not break, or it could be at risk of a significant downturn. Critical Levels For BTC Price: Alphractal CEO On Saturday, March 7, Alphractal founder and CEO Joao Wedson revealed on the social media platform X that the $63,700 level is a crucial support level for the Bitcoin price. The crypto expert analyzed why this price level is critical to the long-term health of the flagship cryptocurrency and other relevant levels to watch. Related Reading: Pundit Says XRP Price Could Reach $1,000 By End Of 2026 If This Happens This on-chain evaluation is based on the Fibonacci-adjusted Market Mean Price, which represents the cost basis, on average, of all Bitcoin holders. This indicator shows BTC’s average cost basis, adjusted with specific Fibonacci ratios; it exhibits mathematical levels of extension or retracement around the BTC average holder’s cost. As observed in the chart above, $63,700 is the next most relevant level for the Bitcoin price, per the Fibonacci-adjusted Market Mean Price. Wedson noted that the premier cryptocurrency cannot afford to break below this key on-chain level, else its price risks embarking on a downward journey on the charts. According to the Alphractal founder, the Bitcoin price could fall to the immediate support cushion around $57,000 if it loses the crucial $63,700. However, there is a chance that the market leader could fall even further to the next Fibonacci-adjusted Market Mean Price around $52,400. In the case where Bitcoin price fails to hold above either of the aforementioned support levels, Wedson identified the $48,700 as the worst-case scenario. A drop to this support level would represent an almost 30% move from the current price point. Wedson noted in his post: It is important to note that these levels are dynamic and update daily, as they adjust according to investor behavior on the blockchain. Wedson appears to have identified the $48,700 as a possible bottom for the premier cryptocurrency in its current bearish phase. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, BTC is valued at around $67,330, reflecting an over 1% price decline in the past 24 hours. With a sloppy performance so far in the first quarter of 2026, the market leader is down by nearly 50% from the current all-time high of around $126,080. Related Reading: Bitcoin Losing Strength — $66,000 Now The Line Between Recovery And Crash Featured image by DALL-E, chart from TradingView
The central debate has shifted from whether bitcoin can survive to if it can function as a sovereign reserve asset, as critics assess it by institutional standards.
Murban crude, a key benchmark for barrels that can bypass the Strait of Hormuz, now trades at $103 per barrel.
Bitcoin has fallen back below $70,000 as selling pressure continues to dominate among crypto traders. Notably, there is currently little sign of strong buying demand that could stop further downside and the current structure still leaves room for a Bitcoin price drop below $60,000. Interestingly, technical analysis shows that the Bitcoin price action is beginning to resemble the pattern it created during the 2022 bear market, with long-term data showing that Bitcoin’s bear cycles have gradually become less severe over time. Related Reading: Stablecoin Market Breaks Records — USDC Controls 70% Of $1.8 Trillion Volume Bitcoin’s Bear Market Cycles Are Shrinking Technical analysis of Bitcoin’s entire price history shows that post-cycle drawdowns have been compressing with almost mechanical precision. This pattern hiding in plain sight was laid out by crypto analyst CrypFlow on the social media platform X. According to the analyst, each major bear market has produced a smaller percentage decline than the previous one, starting with a 93% collapse after the 2011 top. The 2013 top was followed by an 87% collapse. After the run of 2017, the market gave back 84%. Lastly, when the 2021 bull cycle peaked, the subsequent bear market stopped at a comparatively modest 78% decline. The argument is that Bitcoin’s growth into a deeper, more liquid market has gradually reduced the kind of downside volatility that defined its early years. Based on that context, the next major bear market low would not need to rival the bloodshed of prior cycles. Therefore, it is safe to assume a worst-case scenario of a 70% drawdown from Bitcoin’s 2025 peak price of $126,080. Extrapolating that compression forward, a 70% crash from the 2025 cycle top would place Bitcoin somewhere around $37,000. However, the analyst also noted that this price is not a bottom forecast. It is also worth noting that Bitcoin has never closed a monthly candle below the previous cycle top during a bear market. In this case, that previous cycle top is 2021’s peak around $69,000. Familiar 2022 Bull Trap And Possible Drop To $50,000 Bitcoin’s bear market cycles might be shrinking, but a look at the current price pattern shows it might be playing out just like it did in the 2022 bear market. This was revealed in a setup by a crypto analyst that goes by the name Chiefy on X. In that setup, Bitcoin’s current price action was placed side by side with the 2022 bear market, with both periods showing what a textbook sequence of a bear trap followed by a bull trap. In September 2022, Bitcoin staged what appeared to be a recovery bounce at $18,000 after a brutal descent. However, this led to a bull trap around $21,000 that lured buyers in before the price action rolled over and carved out fresh lows. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETFs Bleed $349M In A Day As Whales Dump, Small Buyers Step In: Analysts The script playing out in early 2026, according to this analysis, is identical. The bear trap in this case was Bitcoin’s fall to $60,000 in February and then another bull trap as it pushed to $74,000. If the 2022 analogy holds, that bounce is not a recovery. It is a setup, and the next Bitcoin price low, the analyst warns, is around $50,000. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @0xChiefy On X Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin is showing signs of weakening momentum as it struggles to regain higher ground, placing the market at a critical turning point. The $66,000 level has now emerged as a key support zone that could determine the next major move. Holding above it may give bulls a chance to spark a recovery, while a decisive break below could open the door for a deeper decline. Bitcoin Struggles Below Blue Box Resistance As Buyers Stay Quiet Bitcoin continues to trade below the blue box resistance, signaling that the market has yet to regain strong bullish momentum. According to crypto analyst Kamile Uray, buyers failed to step in at the $69,407 level that had been closely monitored on the 4-hour timeframe. Although selling pressure pushed the price lower, the pace of the decline has started to slow in the current region. Related Reading: Bitcoin Consolidates Near Key Support Band — $77,000 Holds The Key To The Next Move Uray explained that as long as Bitcoin remains above the $66,187 level, the possibility of another attempt toward the blue box resistance remains on the table. A decisive breakout above the $69,407 resistance, especially with strong high-volume candles, could open the door for a much larger upward move. Based on the principle of equal waves, such a breakout scenario could propel Bitcoin toward the $100,000 mark. A daily close above $98,200 would also establish a new high peak in the context of the latest wave structure on the daily chart, increasing the chances of a sustained uptrend. However, caution may be required if the price approaches the $107,000–$109,000 region, as a bearish Libra formation could develop within that zone. Failure to close above the previous peak could activate the pattern and trigger a renewed downward move. Meanwhile, the $66,187 level remains a key support to watch on the 4-hour chart. Holding above it would keep bullish expectations intact, while a close below it may lead to a retest of $62,433. If the decline deepens further and resistance levels continue to cap upward attempts, the next major support targets are $62,433, $55,230, and $47,256. BTC Loses $70,000 Support As Bearish Momentum Builds Crypto analyst Crypto Candy noted that Bitcoin was unable to maintain its position above the $70,000 level and eventually closed below it. Holding above that zone was previously highlighted as crucial for sustaining bullish momentum. Failure to defend the $70,000 mark suggests that sellers have regained control of the market. Related Reading: Analyst Shares Timeline For When A New Bitcoin Bull Run Will Begin This Year The analyst further explained that bearish pressure may continue unless Bitcoin manages to reclaim and break above the $74,000 level. As long as the price remains below that threshold, momentum favors the downside, with a potential move toward the $61,000 region or even lower levels. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Spot Bitcoin ETFs listed in the US recorded their steepest single-day outflow in nearly three weeks on Friday, with $349 million pulled from all 11 products combined, according to data from Farside. Related Reading: Stablecoin Market Breaks Records — USDC Controls 70% Of $1.8 Trillion Volume The withdrawals came as Bitcoin slid back toward $68,000 after briefly touching $74,000 earlier in the week — a run-up that, based on on-chain data, appears to have been the trigger for a significant wave of selling by large holders. Big Holders Bought Low, Then Sold Fast Crypto analytics platform Santiment tracked the behavior of wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 Bitcoin — a group commonly referred to as whales — and found they had been building positions aggressively between Feb. 23 and March 3, when prices were stuck in the $62,900 to $69,600 range. Once Bitcoin crossed $74,000 on Wednesday, those same wallets began offloading. By Friday, roughly 66% of what they had accumulated over that 10-day window had been sold back into the market. Smaller investors moved in the opposite direction. Wallets holding less than 0.01 Bitcoin — the retail end of the market — have been adding to their positions as prices fell. According to Santiment, that kind of divergence between large and small holders has historically pointed to more downside ahead. “When retail buys while whales sell, it typically signals that the correction is not yet over,” the platform said in a Friday report. Fear Gauge Drops To Its Lowest Reading In Weeks Bitcoin’s slide pushed the Crypto Fear & Greed Index down six points to a score of 12 on Saturday, placing it deep in “Extreme Fear” territory. The index measures market sentiment across a range of factors including volatility, trading volume, and social media activity. Some analysts said that Bitcoin could still face another drop if buyers fail to defend the current price zone. A loss of support around the $67,000–$68,000 range may trigger a move back toward recent lows to gather liquidity before any potential rebound. An Economist’s Case For A $60K Floor Not everyone sees a breakdown coming. Economist Timothy Peterson pointed to the Bitcoin Price to Metcalfe Value chart — a model that measures Bitcoin’s price against the estimated value of its network based on user activity — and said the $60,000 level has held as a bottom in every prior cycle. “About 99.5% chance it stays above $60k,” Peterson wrote on X. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Brief Rally Isn’t The End Of The Bear Market, Analysts Say Bitcoin had already tested that level once this cycle, falling to $60,000 on Feb. 6 during a broader pullback from an all-time high of $126,000 set in October. Since then, it has managed a partial recovery, though Friday’s ETF outflows and the continued whale selling suggest the market has not yet found stable footing. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView
BlackRock’s Rick Rieder, UBS’s Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi and Third Point’s Daniel Loeb see steady economic growth but a tougher market environment.
Bitcoin’s initial break above the 6-figure price point back in 2024, and then the eventual move to an all-time high of $126,000, has fueled the expectations of higher price points. Even now, as the price continues to trend below $100,000, it has done little to erase the bullish momentum surrounding the cryptocurrency, especially in the long term. As a result, predictions continue to come out that the Bitcoin price will eventually trade at 6-figures again, and eventually, new all-time highs. Mapping The Bitcoin Price Recovery In a post on the TradingView website, Setupsfx points out an interesting thing about the Bitcoin price chart and why this is bullish for the digital asset. After the Bitcoin price reclaimed $70,000 earlier in the week, it set the tone for another recovery trend, and the analyst suggests that this means that the price can still climb to $200,000. Related Reading: Pundit Says XRP Price At $100 Is Not Insane If You Understand This The analysis highlights that, unlike before, the break above $72,000 came with strong bullish volume. What this simply means is that there is a lot of demand right now for the cryptocurrency, and that is what is driving the current uptrend. If this holds, then the price is likely to continue upward rather than experience another crash. Following the current trend, the analysis sets the first major Bitcoin target at the $104,000 level. This is important because there is a liquidity void sitting in this area. This means that there could be a stop to the uptrend at this level, being a major point of resistance. However, all hope is not lost at this point because it simply shows how important it is to break this resistance. Once this breaks, it sets the cryptocurrency on the path to the next major target, which lies at $124,000. Reaching $124,000 would be momentous for the Bitcoin price as this is just below its current all-time high levels. Related Reading: Dogecoin Morning Doji Star Shows Bullish Reversal That Will Send Price To $0.8 The final target for this analysis actually lies at the $134,000 level, which could deem the uptrend complete. As for the rally to $200,000, the analyst explains that this is still possible, despite many saying that it is unrealistic. Mainly, the $200,000 target is set for the long-term view of the cryptocurrency. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) began the week with a sharp rebound that briefly lifted the world’s largest cryptocurrency back toward the $74,000 mark on Wednesday for the first time in more than a month. However, as the week comes to a close, that momentum has faded, with BTC sliding back to roughly $68,260. Even with the choppy price action, on-chain analytics firm Amber Data argues that the broader outlook for Bitcoin remains constructive. In its latest market report, the firm suggests that new all-time highs are still possible this year. Post-Liquidation Reset Amber Data describes Bitcoin as entering 2026 in an unusual position. The market, it says, has been “de-risked” following October’s liquidation event, which they assert flushed out excessive leverage from the market. In the report, they contend that open interest had climbed to “unsustainable levels,” the basis trade had become overcrowded, and funding rates reflected stretched positioning. Related Reading: Bank Resistance Puts 2026 Passage Of Crypto Market Structure Bill In Doubt, Reuters When headlines surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariff policies hit the market, the overleveraged structure was unable to withstand the selling pressure. The result was a cascade of liquidations that wiped out weak hands and reset positioning. While painful, the correction served a purpose. Valuations have since normalized, leverage has been largely cleared from the system, and the Bitcoin market structure appears healthier, Amber Data noted. Yet the recovery remains fragile. Liquidity is still impaired, and the carry trade — once a major driver of activity — is no longer especially attractive. In Amber Data’s view, the market is now structurally sound but lacks a clear catalyst to define its next major move. ‘Muddle Through’ Phase In its base case, which it assigns a 50% probability, Bitcoin trades between $90,000 and $120,000. This outcome envisions extended consolidation until a meaningful macro catalyst emerges. Under this “muddle through” scenario, conditions neither worsen dramatically nor improve significantly. Volatility compresses, enthusiasm cools, and both bullish breakout expectations and bearish collapse predictions are repeatedly frustrated. Early signs supporting this scenario would include basis annual percentage rates recovering to 8–10%, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows turning consistently positive, order book depth returning toward pre-crash conditions, and funding rates stabilizing in positive territory. 25% Chance Bitcoin Breakout To $180,000 Amber Data assigns a 25% probability to a more optimistic outcome, with Bitcoin climbing between $120,000 and $180,000. In this bull case, institutional participation accelerates alongside sovereign adoption, creating a feedback loop of expanding flows. Early confirmation signals would include weekly Bitcoin ETF inflows exceeding $1 billion, basis rates expanding beyond 15% as leverage demand surges, and new accumulation cohorts appearing in HODL wave data, indicating fresh capital entering at scale. Bear Case Targets $60,000 On the downside, Amber Data assigns a 20% probability to a bearish scenario in which Bitcoin trades between $60,000 and $80,000. This would occur if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate more sharply than currently expected and global markets shift decisively into risk-off mode. Warning signs would include sustained ETF outflows exceeding $1 billion per week, basis yields collapsing below 3%, widespread stablecoin redemptions signaling capital flight, and a potential test of the $80,000 ETF cost basis level. Related Reading: XRP Faces High Risk Of Breakdown Below $1.30, Expert Flags Bitcoin As Main Threat Finally, the firm outlines a 5% probability “volatility and chop” scenario, in which Bitcoin trades between $75,000 and $110,000 with no sustained directional trend. Indicators would include sharply fluctuating funding rates, repeated spikes and collapses in open interest as positions are liquidated on both sides, and inconsistent ETF flows alternating between inflows and outflows without a clear pattern. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio has witnessed a sharp increase recently, indicating that large deposit transactions have gained dominance. Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio Has Seen Its 30-Day SMA Value Hit 0.6 In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about the latest trend in the Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio. This on-chain indicator measures the ratio between the sum of the top 10 exchange inflows and the total exchange inflow. Related Reading: Bitcoin Faces On-Chain Air Gap To $81,000: Will Momentum Build? The ten largest transactions going toward exchanges are generally representative of deposit activity from the whale entities, so the Exchange Whale Ratio essentially tells us about how the inflows from these giants compare with that of the entire market. When the value of the metric is high, it means the whales make up for a large share of the exchange inflows. As one of the main reasons why investors deposit to these platforms is for selling-related purposes, this kind of trend can be a sign that big-money holders are potentially distributing. On the other hand, the indicator having a low value suggests the whales are making up for a relatively healthy portion of the total market deposits, which can be either neutral or bullish for the cryptocurrency. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of the Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio over the past decade: As displayed in the above graph, the 30-day SMA of the Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio floated around the 0.45 mark during 2025, suggesting whale-sized transactions were making up for less than 50% of the exchange deposit activity. Recently, however, the indicator has witnessed a sharp increase. This surge arrived as BTC saw its leg down to $60,000 in early February, but the metric’s value hasn’t calmed down even as the asset has stabilized. Today, the Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio has a value of 0.6, meaning that the ten largest deposit transactions alone add up to 60% of the exchange inflow volume. It now remains to be seen how the BTC price will develop in the near future, given this possible selling pressure being applied by the large hands. In some other news, the Bitcoin Inter-exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) has just seen a trend flip, as the analyst has highlighted in another X post. The IFP keeps track of the flows occurring between spot and derivatives exchanges. Earlier, this metric fell under its 90-day SMA and entered into a period of downtrend, implying speculative activity was declining. Related Reading: Bitcoin Spot ETFs See 14-Day Netflows Surge: Demand Returning? From the chart, it’s visible that the IFP has recently turned back up and crossed beyond the 90-day, implying derivatives flows could be making a comeback. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $68,400, up more than 4% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is now firmly in a deep bear market and could fall another 30% in 2026, firm said.
Bitcoin’s latest rebound to $74,050 on Thursday is running into immediate selling pressure as short-term holders move coins to exchanges in large volumes, suggesting the market’s most reactive cohort remains unconvinced by the recovery. On-chain data shared by CryptoQuant contributors indicates that traders who bought Bitcoin only weeks ago are now locking in gains rather than holding through the bounce, creating a fresh pocket of supply just as the market attempts to stabilize. Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Cash In According to CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost, more than 27,000 BTC in profits were sent to exchanges by short-term holders (STHs) over the past 24 hours, one of the largest spikes recorded in recent months. The metric tracks coins moved to exchanges by investors who are currently in profit, often interpreted as a precursor to potential selling pressure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Suppressed By Shadow Banking Rehypothecation, Saylor Says “Despite the slight recovery of Bitcoin, STHs (Short Term Holders) do not seem convinced and prefer to take profits quickly,” Darkfost wrote. “Over the past 24 hours, STHs have sent more than 27,000 BTC in profit to exchanges, which ranks among the highest levels observed in recent months.” The dynamic appears concentrated among the most recent buyers. According to the analysis, the only cohort currently able to realize meaningful gains consists of investors who accumulated Bitcoin between one week and one month ago, with a realized price near $68,000. That positioning places them directly in the money after Bitcoin’s latest bounce toward the low-$70,000 range, creating a natural incentive to exit positions quickly. “STH are known for being reactive and emotionally driven, especially the youngest cohorts,” Darkfost noted. “Current news flow and macroeconomic projections remain rather negative in the short term, which makes this behavior relatively understandable and, in this case, fairly rational.” Related Reading: Bitcoin To $11 Million By 2036? This AI-Deflation Thesis Is Turning Heads For now, that behavior translates into near-term supply. “This represents selling pressure to monitor, as STH do not yet appear willing to hold their positions for longer,” he added. Repeated Pattern Around Range Highs Separate market structure analysis points to another pattern that may be reinforcing the selling. CryptoQuant contributor Maartunn highlighted a recurring technical setup that has played out multiple times in recent months: brief breakouts above key resistance levels followed by swift reversals. “Deviations above the Range High keep getting sold,” Maartunn wrote. “Over the last few months, BTC has shown the same pattern three times: break above the range high, short-lived deviation, sharp move lower.” The most recent instance occurred as Bitcoin briefly pushed above a range ceiling near $71,000 before stalling. “The latest deviation just occurred around $71K,” he noted. “If history repeats, this level may again act as a trap for late longs.” The pattern was visible in early-October 2025 and mid-January 2026. Breakouts above local range highs were followed by rapid pullbacks, reinforcing the idea that liquidity above resistance levels has been used primarily as an exit point for sellers. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $70,127. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is testing the $70,000 level after briefly surging toward $74,000, as the market attempts to stabilize following a volatile period marked by geopolitical uncertainty and rapid price swings. While the recent rally helped restore short-term momentum, analysts are closely monitoring on-chain data to determine whether the move reflects a broader shift in market structure or simply a temporary recovery within an ongoing consolidation phase. Related Reading: The $73,000 Test: Crowded Shorts And Negative Funding Fueled Bitcoin’s 15% Recovery According to top analyst Axel Adler, recent exchange flow data reveals a notable development that could signal underlying accumulation. An unusually large Bitcoin outflow was recorded this week, with approximately 31,900 BTC leaving exchanges in a single day. Historically, events of this magnitude have often been associated with large-scale transfers into cold storage, suggesting that some market participants may be moving coins off trading platforms for longer-term holding. Over the past seven days, Bitcoin netflows from exchanges have remained consistently negative. Daily outflows included roughly 2,867 BTC on February 27, 1,205 BTC on February 28, 251 BTC on March 1, 6,129 BTC on March 2, 1,819 BTC on March 3, a sharp 31,900 BTC on March 4, and 3,478 BTC on March 5. In total, approximately 47,700 BTC exited exchanges during the week, one of the largest weekly outflow figures observed over the past year. Stablecoin Flows Reveal Liquidity Deployment Into Bitcoin The report also examines stablecoin activity across exchanges, highlighting an important shift in liquidity dynamics during early March. Data from the All Stablecoins (ERC20) Exchange Netflow metric tracks the daily net movement of stablecoins across trading platforms and provides insight into how capital flows into and out of the crypto market. For most of 2025, stablecoin netflows displayed a largely neutral pattern, characterized by alternating inflows and outflows without a sustained directional trend. Several notable spikes occurred during the year, including inflows of roughly $2.7 billion in July and approximately $2.4 billion in September. However, a more significant regime shift emerged in early March 2026. Related Reading: The $1.35 Floor: How Extreme Negative Funding Is Priming XRP For A High-Velocity Trend Reversal At that time, the chart recorded a large stablecoin inflow of about $1.1 billion entering exchanges. Within just a few days, the trend reversed, with netflow falling to around -$37.5 million. While the current outflow is not extreme relative to historical swings, the rapid transition from inflow to outflow suggests that incoming liquidity was quickly deployed. According to the analysis, this movement likely connects directly to the anomalous Bitcoin outflow observed on March 4. The sequence suggests that stablecoins were first deposited onto exchanges, converted into Bitcoin through spot purchases, and then withdrawn into cold storage. Large-scale accumulators trigger this behavior, buying Bitcoin on exchanges and immediately transferring it to long-term custody. Bitcoin Tests Key Level Around $70K The 4-hour chart shows Bitcoin consolidating near the $70,000 level after a sharp recovery from the late-February lows around $63,000. Following the geopolitical-driven selloff, BTC entered a sideways structure for several weeks before breaking higher in early March and briefly reaching the $74,000 region. This move pushed the price above the short-term moving averages, signaling improving momentum. Currently, Bitcoin is testing the confluence of several technical levels near $70K. The price has pulled back from the recent local high and is now hovering around the descending 200-period moving average, which is acting as immediate resistance. The 50-period and 100-period moving averages are slightly below the current price, forming a short-term support cluster in the $68,000–$69,000 range. Related Reading: Manufacturing The Bitcoin Reserve: Inside The Trump Family’s 11,000-Miner Expansion At American Bitcoin From a structural perspective, the recent breakout shifted the market from a short-term downtrend into a consolidation phase with slightly higher lows. However, the rejection near $74,000 indicates that bullish momentum still faces overhead pressure. If Bitcoin manages to hold above the $69K support zone, the market could attempt another push toward the $73K–$74K resistance area. A decisive break above that region would confirm renewed bullish momentum. Conversely, losing the $68K support cluster could trigger another retest of the $65K–$66K range where strong buying previously emerged. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com