There comes a point when long-standing detractors become so vocal, their tone shifting from criticism to arrogance, that it often reflects conditions that are consistent with a bottom.
Trading volume in Strategy shares surged to 42.9 million, the most since last December, as the price fell 3.25%.
After a brief period of consolidation and a bullish uptick to around $93,000 at the end of last week, the Bitcoin price has once again dipped toward the $85,000 mark, recording a significant 7% drop on Monday, according to data from CoinGecko. Market expert Shanaka Anslem has pointed to what he refers to as “the weapon” behind this latest crash: Japanese government bonds. Expert Warns Of Unraveling Yen Carry Trade In a post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), the expert highlighted that the yield on Japan’s 10-year bonds reached 1.877 percent on December 1, 2025—the highest level since June 2008—while the 2-year yield hit 1 percent, a benchmark not seen since before the collapse of Lehman Brothers. He explained that these rising yields have triggered a significant unwinding of what Anslem describes as the largest arbitrage trade in history: the Yen Carry Trade. Related Reading: Dogecoin Whale Activity Drops To Deepest Level In Two Months With estimates placing the total size of this trade at around $3.4 trillion and figures nearing $20 trillion, he noted that this allowed global investors to borrow Japanese yen at minimal costs to buy a variety of assets, including stocks, US Treasuries, and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. However, this era appears to have ended last month. The mechanics of this situation are straightforward but impactful, Anslem asserted. As yields rise, the yen strengthens, making leveraged positions increasingly unprofitable. He suggested that this leads to a chain reaction: selling triggers margin calls, which in turn causes further liquidations. On October 10, $19 billion in crypto positions were liquidated, marking the largest single-day wipeout in crypto history. By November, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw $3.45 billion exit the market, with BlackRock’s IBIT suffering a $2.34 billion loss. On December 1 alone, an additional $646 million was liquidated before lunchtime. Will The Bitcoin Price Plunge To $75,000? This decline has occurred alongside the Bitcoin price correlations with major stock indices, showing a 46% correlation with the Nasdaq and a 42% correlation with the S&P 500. Anslem noted in his analysis that what was once perceived as an “uncorrelated hedge” has now transformed into a leveraged indicator of global liquidity conditions. Related Reading: Is Strategy Buying Bitcoin Again? Saylor’s ‘Green Dots’ Suggest Yes Interestingly, despite the Bitcoin price collapse, whale investors accumulated 375,000 BTC during this period. Moreover, miners significantly cut back their selling, reducing monthly sales from 23,000 BTC to just 3,672. As the market looks ahead, the expert asserted that a pivotal moment approaches on December 18 with the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy decision. Anslem concluded that if the bank opts to raise rates and signal further increases, the Bitcoin price could test the $75,000 level, which would represent an additional 11% drop for the market’s leading cryptocurrency from current trading levels. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
XRP and BTC trade close to make-or-break levels while Nasdaq's November price action raises pullback risks.
In a turbulent market marked by falling prices, Bitcoin (BTC) has once again dipped below the $85,000 threshold, driven by growing speculation that Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, may be on the verge of selling some of its Bitcoin holdings. This intensified after a recent interview on the What Bitcoin Did podcast, during which Strategy CEO Phong Le was directly asked whether the company would consider parting with any of its BTC holdings. While the firm’s former CEO, Michael Saylor, has consistently maintained a resolute stance against selling, Le’s comments have raised concerns about potential sales in the future. Is A Bitcoin Sell-Off Imminent? Le indicated that if Strategy’s stock trades below the actual value of its Bitcoin holdings and the company is unable to raise additional capital for preferred dividends, selling some Bitcoin could become a necessity. “If the stock trades below the value of our Bitcoin… then mathematically we would have to sell some Bitcoin. It would be the last resort,” he explained. While this does not confirm an imminent sale, it visibly places the option on the table, leading to increased speculation about a forced sale as preferred dividend payments approach due on December 31. Related Reading: Here’s Why The Bitcoin Price Is Crashing Today Adding to the unease, Strategy disclosed in a recent filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that it has established a USD Reserve of $1.44 billion to cover these upcoming preferred dividends and mitigate the interest on its substantial debt. This reserve was funded through the proceeds from sales of its class A common stock under the company’s at-the-market offering program. Such moves have diluted current shareholders and contributed to a nearly 11% drop in Strategy’s stock price. Strategy Downgrades BTC Price Forecast This shift contrasts sharply with the company’s previous forecasts, which predicted that Bitcoin would soar to $150,000 by the end of the year. Strategy has now revised its expectations, projecting prices to range between $85,000 and $110,000. The forecast for BTC yields has also been revised down to 24% from a previous estimate of 30%, along with projected Bitcoin gains decreasing significantly from $20 billion to $10.6 billion at the midpoint. Related Reading: $300 Million Crypto Bet: Kazakhstan’s Central Bank Gears Up As Bitcoin’s value continues to plummet, it further unravels Strategy’s financial outlook. Nevertheless, social media experts have pointed to a paradox within the company’s messaging. AlejandroXBT noted that while Saylor has consistently stated he will never sell Bitcoin, he has been conducting private presentations to clients outlining various strategic approaches, suggesting a potential disconnect between public declarations and private planning. When writing, the market’s leading cryptocurrency trades at $84,880, recording major losses of over 7% in the 24-hour time frame. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Market positioning implies a meaningful probability of sub-$80K BTC to start 2026, Derive's Forster said.
Bitcoin bulls' hopes for rate cuts to lower bond yields and the dollar are challenged by signals from the Treasury and the FX market.
In a strategic move, Tether has shifted its reserve strategy, reducing its exposure to treasuries while increasing allocations to Bitcoin and gold. The USDT issuer has shown a notable reduction in government debt exposure, paired with an expanded position in hard assets known for durability and independence from traditional financial systems. Treasury Exposure Drops Amid Changing Macro And Regulatory Landscape Stablecoin giant, Tether, has reduced its US Treasury holdings and increased its Gold and Bitcoin reserves. CryptosRus reported on X that Tether is quietly repositioning itself for what the company expects to be the Federal Reserve’s (FED) next round of rate cuts. Related Reading: Rumble At The Core: How Tether Plans To Dominate The US Stablecoin Market According to BitMex founder Arthur Hayes, Tether’s latest reserve update shows a clear shift away from the US treasuries and deeper into BTC and gold, a sign that the company is positioning for a changing macro environment. Furthermore, the Standard & Poor (S&P) Global noted that Tether is now leaning more heavily into assets with larger price swings in value, warning that this mix could expose USDT if markets turn volatile. Meanwhile, the current S&P Global rating on Tether remains weak. Thus, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino has pushed back, saying that the company holds no toxic assets. He claims that its rapid growth reflects a broader shift towards new financial systems that operate outside the traditional banking world. Why Attempts To Break Tether Are Difficult In Practice Crypto analyst Ted Pillows has also offered insight into the Tether Fear Uncertainty and Doubt (FUD) as it is making its usual rounds again. The narrative is latching onto the company’s latest attestation, showing a notable shift into Gold and Bitcoin to offset declining interest income. Meanwhile, if these risk assets drop by 30%, Tether’s equity buffer could evaporate, creating an environment where Tether will be insolvent, and panic will kick in. Related Reading: Tether Targets $500 Billion Valuation In New Equity Offering Amid US Expansion Plans However, Ted is steadfast and believes that Tether has been through a decade of this same FUD, and USDT is still sitting at $1.00. They’re fully liquid, but they operate on a fractional-reserve model, much like traditional banks. As long as redemptions remain normal, everything will work smoothly. A problem will only arise if there’s an irrational panic, and then liquidity stress could hit quickly. According to Ted, the USDT isn’t fully backed by cash, but it’s backed by a diverse portfolio that includes the US treasuries, yield-generating assets, and some risk assets. This is all scaled to a massive $174 billion stablecoin. “If someone wants to kill USDT, it’s possible, but I highly doubt it,” Ted noted. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Placeholder VC’s Chris Burniske sees one of the best long-term setups for Bitcoin building in the background – but he is clear that the real opportunity likely lies lower, with a potential test of levels near $56,000 still ahead. On X, Burniske argues that the current sentiment environment is exactly what eventually produces outsized returns, while warning that it is still early for aggressive deployment. “There’s so much pessimism and short-term thinking on crypto assets these days that the R/R is tilting towards optimism and long-term, sized, high-conviction positions in distressed, public, cryptoassets,” he writes. “That said, the time isn’t yet now, imo.” Bitcoin Bear Market Not Over Yet He reiterates a framework he first shared when Bitcoin was trading at $109,000: “I shared my view @ $109K that BTC only starts to get interesting < $75K, and a revisit of the 200W SMA is always possible (~$56K currently, will trend higher), with all of those numbers still representing a mellow bear.” For Burniske, a move into that band – and even a touch of the 200-week simple moving average – would not mean a structural breakdown, but a more orderly, “mellow” bear market reset. He adds a blunt caveat: “Can we go lower? Sure. Pay your taxes and let’s see what 2026 brings.” Related Reading: Analyst Sets Bitcoin Next Target At $95k-$96k – Here’s Why That patience extends beyond Bitcoin to the broader crypto complex. As an example, he highlights Monad’s MON token, where Placeholder is a venture investor. He describes MON as “one of the highest quality teams to launch in the last few years,” arguing it “sits at a tenth of the FDV of previous high-flyers in its category, while having superior tech & design choices across the board.” For him, MON’s price action is symptomatic of the broader reset: “Observing discourse & price-action around MON … shows how much repricing is happening.” Burniske sees that repricing as necessary rather than catastrophic. “More broadly, the vicious repricing happening in crypto is cathartic,” he says. “Everyone is taking their licks, and smart ones will learn and adapt.” In his framework, tokens are “liquid venture,” and the failure rate should be treated accordingly: “Most crypto assets should go to zero — this is liquid venture, what did you expect?” Related Reading: Newbie Bitcoin Whales Capitulating, But Old Hands Stay Silent The flip side is that a small minority of assets will, in his view, be marked down far too aggressively as “babies are thrown out with the bathwater.” For those, timing and conviction matter more than ever: “there are going to be a handful that reprice far too low … and having the conviction, at the right time, to be optimistic when the consensus is pessimistic will once again yield 10-100X’s.” For now, Burniske’s message to would-be Bitcoin bottom fishers is straightforward: the structural risk–reward is improving, but a convincing bottom may still require a deeper break – potentially toward the rising 200-week moving average around $56,000 – before long-term, high-conviction capital truly steps in. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $85,872. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is fighting to reclaim the $90,000 level after a sharp drop earlier today, adding fuel to growing fears of a deeper downtrend. Market sentiment has weakened noticeably, with selling pressure intensifying across spot and derivatives markets. Traders remain cautious as liquidity thins and volatility increases, creating an environment where even minor inflows can trigger outsized price reactions. The recent rejection below $90K highlights the fragility of the current structure and raises questions about whether Bitcoin is entering a more prolonged corrective phase. Related Reading: Bitcoin Must Break Key Supply Clusters To Regain ATH Momentum – Watch These Levels However, beneath the surface, on-chain data reveals a striking counter-signal. According to On-Chain Mind, Bitcoin is currently printing the largest hidden-buying spike of the entire cycle. Order flow analysis tracks the relationship between actual buy/sell pressure and the corresponding price movement. When the two do not align, hidden divergences emerge: positive divergences indicate aggressive buying despite muted price action, while negative ones reflect stealth selling. The size of this hidden-buying spike suggests a major imbalance in favor of buyers—an early sign that large players may be quietly accumulating while the broader market focuses on the decline. Whether this hidden demand can offset the prevailing sell pressure will determine Bitcoin’s next decisive move. Hidden Buying Supports Reversal Narrative Despite Macro Fear According to On-Chain Mind, the persistent hidden-buying spike remains one of the strongest signals favoring a future upside reversal. Even after Bitcoin’s most recent drop, the imbalance between real buying pressure and price action suggests that large players are still absorbing supply. While this type of signal does not guarantee an immediate rebound—and may take several weeks to fully materialize—it indicates that buyers have not exhausted their resources. Historically, such divergences appear near cyclical inflection points, when sentiment is weakest, but accumulation quietly strengthens beneath the surface. This constructive signal emerges at a time when fear in the market is amplified by external narratives. Renewed headlines about a China Bitcoin ban, despite being recycled and lacking substantive policy updates, have resurfaced across social media, contributing to confusion and short-term panic. Similarly, fresh waves of Tether FUD—focused on reserve transparency and regulatory scrutiny—have pressured liquidity conditions and fueled risk-off behavior. Together, these storylines have exaggerated bearish sentiment, overshadowing the more nuanced on-chain developments. While retail reacts to alarming headlines, order flow data suggests that sophisticated investors are taking the opposite stance. If hidden accumulation continues, this correction may ultimately resolve with a stronger recovery than current sentiment implies. Related Reading: Bitcoin STH Loss Transfers Fall 80% From Peak – What Comes Next? Bitcoin Attempts to Stabilize After Sharp Breakdown, but Trend Remains Fragile Bitcoin’s 1-day chart reflects a market still under heavy corrective pressure following the steep decline from the $110,000 region. The breakdown sliced through the 50 SMA and 100 SMA with little resistance, signaling a decisive shift in momentum. Price is now hovering below both moving averages, which have begun to curl downward—an early sign that the medium-term trend has weakened. The 200 SMA around the $109,000 zone sits far above the current price, underscoring how aggressive the correction has been. After reaching a local low near $83,000, BTC has attempted to rebound, but the reaction remains modest. The latest bounce failed to reclaim $90,000 convincingly, forming a lower high that aligns with bearish continuation. Related Reading: XRP Reserves On Binance Collapse To Record Lows: Investors Move Toward Long-Term Holding Volume spikes during sell-offs reinforce the dominance of sellers, while buying activity remains comparatively muted. Until BTC can flip the 50 and 100 SMAs back into support—now clustered around $101,000–$108,000—bulls will struggle to regain control. The chart also shows increasing distance between price and the 200 SMA, a condition that often precedes temporary relief rallies. However, unless Bitcoin closes back above the $95,000–$98,000 region, downside risks persist. For now, BTC is attempting to stabilize, but the broader trend continues to favor caution. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Crypto analysts Nik and Doctor Profit have provided insights into why the Bitcoin price is crashing today. The flagship crypto has again dropped below the psychological $90,000 level, sparking bearish sentiments among market participants. Why The Bitcoin Price Is Crashing Today In an X post, Nik remarked that the Bitcoin price didn’t dump because of bad news but because the “clock flipped.” He noted that a large number of algos sold off at the same time with the daily close, and also considering that it is a new week and a new month. The analyst added that it is not traders making decisions but portfolios rebalancing in real time. Related Reading: Finance Expert Says Bitcoin Price Growth Is In ‘Google 2017’ Phase, What This Means Nik explained that with this Bitcoin price crash, inventories have adjusted, hedges have reset, and risk has been flushed from the market. He noted that the candles may look emotional, but that the behavior is mechanical. The analyst also indicated that retail investors may have also dumped their coins out of panic. Nik stated that time-based algos usually ignite the sell-off, and then everyone is forced to react to their flow. He added that the effect was strong enough today to shake the Bitcoin price, with the crash dragging the broader crypto market along. BTC dropped below $90,000 today, after recovering to $92,000 last week. Meanwhile, Nik stated that most people usually miss the signs of a potential Bitcoin price crash because they focus on patterns drawn by humans rather than flows controlled by machines. He added that the market doesn’t only react to price but also to time. Not Yet Enough Liquidity For A Major Crash In an X post, crypto analyst Doctor Profit said that there isn’t enough downside liquidity yet to trigger a major Bitcoin price crash. This is why he expects a sideways range between the current price and the EMA50, around $100,000, in the coming days or weeks. The analyst noted that the two largest liquidity clusters in the short term are at the $97,000 and $107,000 regions. Related Reading: Analyst Who Predicted Bitcoin Price Action With Chinese Astrology Shares When Prices Will Surge However, Doctor Profit remains bearish in the long term. He declared that a major move down is planned, but that the script must be followed and that the required liquidity is not yet in place. The analyst told market participants to expect a boring sideways phase with confirmed targets of between $70,000 and $75,000 by the start of 2026. Doctor Profit reiterated that such moves to the downside for the Bitcoin price take time. He explained that the crash could unfold as a strong drop, followed by a long sideways consolidation, then a fake relief rally, and then the continuation of lower lows. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $85,800, down over 5% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Led by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, the company also added to its bitcoin holdings last week, bringing its total stack to 650,000 BTC.
A crypto analyst has issued one of the most dramatic market calls of the year, predicting that the Bitcoin price could crash below $50,000 by 2026. However, he claims that this drop could set the stage for a historic wealth transfer. He says 2026 could become the best year for investors who stay calm and prepare for a major market reset. His reasons are closely tied to the growing economic imbalances and to key US macroeconomic indicators, which continue to tilt deeper into negative territory. Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Crash And 2026 Market Reset A crypto market analyst who goes by the name ‘NoLimit’ on X has shared a dramatic forecast, claiming that 2026 may be the “best year” ever and could see the biggest wealth-transfer event in more than a decade. He anticipates significant volatility in digital assets during this period and predicts that the price of Bitcoin could slip below $50,000, representing a more than 42% decline from its present price above $86,000. Related Reading: Dogecoin Just Suffered An 80% Crash In This Major Metric The analyst outlined several reasons why he believes that 2026 could become the most defining year for investors. As Bitcoin’s price declines to projected lows, NoLimit predicts the broader market will undergo a deep structural reset, which could drive declines across several economic indicators and financial assets. In his chart, the analyst referenced the widening gap between US assets and liabilities, arguing that the expanding spread is an early signal of structural weakness. That chart highlights a consistent rise in US liabilities from the roughly $30 trillion range in 2016 to above $60 trillion in 2025, while US assets climb more slowly. This gap pushes the net position further into negative territory, which the analyst indicates could trigger a broader correction in traditional markets. During the projected market reset in 2026, NoLimit anticipates a dramatic decline in US equities, warning that the S&P 500 could lose as much as 40% of its value. He believes that the correction will hit individual companies even harder. In the most extreme cases, he expects some stocks to fall by 50% to 98%, echoing the collapse of many technology firms during the dot-com crash in 2001. Gold Expected To Surge As Banks Collapse NoLimit has indicated that his projected decline in Bitcoin’s price is expected to contribute to his proposed wealth-transfer event in 2026. While BTC drops below $50,000, the analyst forecasts that gold will skyrocket to $6,500, reflecting a more than 53.6% increase from its current price of around $4,233. Related Reading: Pundit Shares XRP Fact That Will ‘Blow Your Mind’ He also warns that several banks may collapse in 2026. He believes that the recessionary pressure building beneath the surface is far worse than most expect, pointing to sky-high debt, governments and corporations burdened by cheap loans, and the $1.2 trillion commercial real estate loans set to mature between 2025 and 2026. NoLimit has indicated that these projected shifts in both economic indicators and investment assets will strain overextended investors and reward those who preserve liquidity and position themselves during the lowest point of the cycle. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
The key indicator's negative flip indicates downside volatility ahead.
Major cryptocurrencies traded lower in early Asia as DeFi platform Yearn noted at "incident" in its yETH pool.
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao’s blunt reminder about buying low and selling high landed at a tense time for crypto traders. His line — “Sell when there is maximum greed, and buy when there is maximum fear” — was posted as markets showed fresh signs of strain and debate over whether now is a buying moment or another stall. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miners Face A Harsh December: Rising BTC Difficulty, Falling Hashprice CZ’s Message Meets Extreme Fear According to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, sentiment recently climbed to 20, moving out of “Extreme Fear” after a streak of low readings. The index had hit a yearly low of 10 on Nov. 22 and the market had spent eighteen days stuck in extreme fear. Unpopular opinion, but it’s better to sell when there is maximum greed, and buy when there is maximum fear. ????♂️ — CZ ???? BNB (@cz_binance) November 29, 2025 Analysts called that stretch unusually deep. Matthew Hyland described it as the “most extreme fear level” of the cycle, and other traders argued that calling it extreme was being generous. Bitcoin Holds But Mood Is Fragile Based on reports, Bitcoin was trading at $91,780, a far cry from the all-time high of $126,000 reached in October. Prices remain up from 2024 lows of just over $40,000, yet confidence is thin. Santiment tracked online chatter and found talks focused more on volatility and institutional moves than on excitement. The Altcoin Season Index sat at 22/100, a clear sign that traders are favoring safety. Market Psychology Overrules Charts Traders reacted fast to CZ’s post. One user said emotion often beats logic in real trading. Another noted that markets tend to move on psychology well before technical signals line up. That gap between what traders know and what they do was on full display: many agree with the rule, and few actually follow it when prices slip. History Offers A Hint, Not A Guarantee Reports have disclosed that some analysts see a pattern. Nicola Duke pointed out that in the last five years, every time the market reached extreme fear, Bitcoin found a local bottom within weeks. While past stretches can offer context, they do not promise the same result now. Bitwise researcher André Dragosch warned that current pricing reflects a recession-level global growth outlook — the most bearish setting since 2020 and 2022 — which raises real risk for buyers. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s November Slump Could Trigger A 2026 Revival, Analysts Say Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Turns Positive After 29 Days Meanwhile, the Bitcoin (BTC) Coinbase premium finally flipped back into positive after nearly a month of staying in the red. Data from Coinglass on the 30th showed the premium at 0.0255%, marking the first positive reading in 29 days. For almost a month, the negative premium had suggested that selling pressure dominated the US market, with traders and investors leaning toward caution. The Coinbase premium tracks how Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase, a major US exchange, compares to the global average. When it’s positive, it means the US price is above the worldwide average. This is often seen as a sign that buying is picking up in the US, more institutions are getting involved, dollar liquidity is recovering, and overall investor confidence is improving. Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
The executive chairman of bitcoin treasury firm Strategy teased a switch from orange dots to green dots in what's become his routine cheeky Sunday X post.
A sharp market pullback has exposed which BTC-focused public companies can actually execute, and which were never built for volatility.
According to CoinWarz, the next difficulty adjustment is expected at block 927,360, moving the target from 149 trillion to close to 150 trillion. That is a modest rise, but it matters because Bitcoin miners are already working with very thin margins. Hashpower is strong enough to push difficulty up even while returns stay near record lows. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s November Slump Could Trigger A 2026 Revival, Analysts Say Hashprice Sits Near Break-Even Hashrate Index data shows hashprice is hovering around $38.3 PH/s per day, a touch up from a recent trough below $35 PH/s on November 21. Reports indicate that $40 PH/s is roughly the break-even level for many operations. When revenue per petahash drifts under that mark, some miners face a hard choice as they usher in December: switch off rigs or keep paying to mine. Average block times have been close to the 10-minute goal, with the network recently averaging about 9.97 minutes, which helped trigger the most recent adjustment that dropped difficulty from 152.2 trillion to 149.3 trillion. Hardware, Politics And Supply Risks Reports have disclosed a US Department of Homeland Security probe into Bitmain, the China-based ASIC maker, over concerns its machines could be accessed remotely. Bitmain is reported to control about 80% of the ASIC market, according to the University of Cambridge. That market concentration leaves the industry vulnerable. If US officials impose restrictions, tariffs, or other limits, miners could face higher hardware costs and slower deliveries. Some equipment orders might be delayed or rerouted, and expansion plans would be tested. China Unlikely To End Bitcoin Mining Ban Despite Uptick Meanwhile, overseas, a mild uptick in China’s bitcoin mining has led some scholars to urge Beijing to relax its ban so miners can use excess energy, but experts say a formal reversal is unlikely. Related Reading: 320 Ether On The Move: Bhutan Ramps Up Its Staking Game According to Hashrate Index, China’s share of global hash rate rose from 13.75% in Q1 2025 to 14% in the current quarter, placing it third behind the US and Russia. Historical data from the Cambridge index shows China’s hash rate fell to zero in July 2021 before unofficial activity pushed it back to 22.29% by September 2021; Cambridge stopped updating its mining map in February 2022. Beijing has tightened rules on crypto in recent years, arguing such activity disrupts financial order and can enable illegal behavior. Experts believe those political and policy concerns make an official lift of the mining ban unlikely, despite the recent rise in activity. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView
Over the past week, the Bitcoin price had its best performance since the infamous October 10 downturn, which led to the largest liquidation event in crypto history. The premier cryptocurrency seems to be on a recovery path, returning above the $90,000 mark on Wednesday, November 26. Despite the several calls of the bear market in recent weeks, the crowd has returned with hopes of the BTC bull run resuming. However, a prominent on-chain analyst has come forward with an interesting analysis of the current Bitcoin price outlook. BTC Price To Continue Within $70,000 – $90,000 Zone: Analyst In a November 28 post on the X platform, CryptoOnchain shared an evaluation of Bitcoin’s current price action around the $90,000 level. According to the crypto pundit, recent on-chain data suggests that the market leader is at risk of a rejection at its current price level. Related Reading: Fed To End QT In December: Will Bitcoin Mirror The Massive Price Crash From Last Time? CryptoOnchain highlighted that the Bitcoin price lost a significant support level at $90,000 when it initially fell to around the $80,000 mark a week ago. Now, the price of BTC is looking to make a sustained close above the $90,000 level after bouncing back from the Point of Control (POC) near $82,000. In crypto trading, the point of control (POC) refers to the price level with the highest volume of trading activity within a given period. It basically represents a zone where buyers and sellers are equally matched, leading to the formation of support or resistance. After bouncing from the POC around $82,000, CryptoOnchain said the flagship cryptocurrency has now settled into a “clear” consolidation zone between the $70,000 and $90,000 region. While the Bitcoin price currently sits above $90,000, the analyst noted that the market leader faces potential rejection. This conclusion was drawn from on-chain data, which shows that large amounts of Bitcoin have been flowing into Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange by trading volume. According to CryptoQuant, the crypto exchange has seen over $2 billion worth of BTC in the past seven days, which could put some downward pressure on the price. Besides the potential selling pressure, there is limited buying power to absorb the extra BTC supply that might hit the open market from sales. CryptoOnchain shared that the net stablecoin inflow on Binance stands at approximately $735 million, which means limited potential demand or buying power. With this “clear supply-demand imbalance,” CryptoOnchain concluded that a rejection from the $90,000 mark and sideways movement within the $70,000 – $90,000 consolidation zone is the likely scenario for the price of BTC. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC sits just above $91,000, reflecting no significant movement in the past day. Related Reading: Top Analyst Unveils Ethereum (ETH) December Trajectory: 150% Surge On The Horizon? Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Phong Le says Strategy has no near-term debt maturity risk and plans to continue using convertibles and equity to grow its bitcoin position over time.
Bitcoin has rallied more than 12% since last week’s sharp drop to the $80,000 low, offering the market a brief moment of relief after an intense period of capitulation. Despite this rebound, fear and uncertainty continue to dominate sentiment, especially following what analysts describe as the largest short-term holder capitulation in Bitcoin’s history. Related Reading: XRP Reserves On Binance Collapse To Record Lows: Investors Move Toward Long-Term Holding This wave of realized losses—fast, aggressive, and record-breaking—has left many investors questioning whether the recent recovery is sustainable or simply a temporary bounce in a broader downtrend. According to new data from Glassnode, the path ahead remains challenging. Analysts explain that Bitcoin must break above the major supply clusters created by top buyers earlier in the cycle if it is to regain meaningful upward momentum. These clusters represent areas where a large number of investors previously bought at higher prices and may now look to exit at breakeven, increasing the likelihood of heavy sell-side pressure as BTC climbs. Bitcoin Faces Critical Supply Barriers Glassnode reports that Bitcoin is now approaching two major supply clusters that will play a decisive role in determining whether the recent rebound can evolve into a sustained recovery. The first cluster sits between $93,000 and $96,000, while the second—much larger and more structurally important—spans $100,000 to $108,000. These zones were formed by heavy buying activity earlier in the cycle and represent areas where many investors are currently underwater or sitting near breakeven. Because of this, Glassnode notes that these ranges typically act as strong resistance, as recent buyers who endured the latest drawdown may choose to sell once the price returns to their entry levels. This dynamic can create temporary supply walls, slowing down momentum even in moments of aggressive recovery. Bitcoin’s ability to break through these clusters will determine whether it can re-establish a path toward a new all-time high or remain trapped under heavy distribution pressure. The market is now entering a critical phase, with traders closely watching how BTC behaves as it approaches these levels. A clean breakout would signal renewed confidence, while rejection could signal that the broader corrective structure is not yet over. Related Reading: Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Still Negative: US Institutions Keep Selling Despite Easing Pressure Testing Support After a Sharp Multi-Week Selloff Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a market attempting to stabilize after one of the most aggressive drawdowns of the cycle. BTC has rebounded to the $91,500 area following a deep wick to the $80K region last week, signaling that buyers are finally stepping in at key support. This rebound coincides with a strong weekly candle showing a long lower shadow, a classic sign of demand absorption during heavy selloffs. However, despite this bounce, the broader structure remains fragile. The price is trading below the 50-week moving average, a level that previously acted as reliable support throughout the bull phase. Losing this dynamic support earlier in the month was a significant technical break, and BTC is now attempting to reclaim it from below—typically a challenging move that often acts as resistance. Related Reading: Ethereum ICO Whale Sells 20,000 ETH ($58M), Raising Questions Over Market Timing The 100-week moving average around the mid-$80K region has proven critical, halting the decline and serving as the primary area where buyers defended the trend. As long as BTC holds above this zone, the broader market avoids confirming a deeper macro reversal. Volume remains elevated, reflecting capitulation-level activity, and the market is now in a decisive phase. A sustained close above $92K–$94K would strengthen recovery prospects, while rejection would risk another retest of the $80K support. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows New Whales on the Bitcoin network have been realizing losses recently, while Old Whales have remained at the sidelines. Bitcoin Has Faced Loss Selling From The Newbie Whales In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about the latest trend in the profit/loss realization behavior of the Bitcoin whales. “Whales” broadly refer to the BTC investors that hold at least 1,000 tokens in their balance. Related Reading: Bitcoin Puell Multiple Plunges, But Not Inside Bottom Zone Yet At the current exchange rate, the cutoff for the cohort is equivalent to $91.6 million, which is quite significant. As such, this group represents the big-money hands of the market, who can carry some degree of influence. Whales can be divided into two subgroups based on holding time. Investors of this size who purchased their coins within the past 155 days are known as the short-term holder (STH) or New Whales. Similarly, whales with a longer holding time are called the long-term holder (LTH) or Old Whales. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the net amount of profit/loss that these Bitcoin whale groups have been realizing through their selling over the last few months: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin New Whales have shown some loss realization spikes recently. This underwater selling from the cohort has come as the cryptocurrency’s price has gone through a decline. The New Whales include the inexperienced hands of the market who tend to easily panic in the face of volatility. It would appear that this quality of the group has held through the latest crash as well. The Old Whales, on the other hand, are considered to represent the resolute side of the network. From the chart, it’s visible that there has been some loss selling from these large dormant entities recently, but its scale has been small compared to the New Whale capitulation. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Be At Risk Of A Deeper Bear If This Ratio Compresses, Says Glassnode The fact that the presence of the Old Whales has been relatively muted through the bearish shift, as well as the rebound that has followed, could be a signal worth keeping an eye on. Speaking of the recovery, the Bitcoin rally has meant that its price has climbed back above a major on-chain cost basis level. As analyst Ali Martinez has shared in an X post, the Bitcoin UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) suggests a strong amount of buying last occurred at $84,500. In on-chain analysis, strong demand zones below the spot price are considered points of potential support for Bitcoin. Similarly, levels above are assumed to be sources of resistance instead. One such major level is present at $112,300. BTC Price Bitcoin’s recovery has furthered during the past day as its price has returned to $92,300. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin has managed to reclaim the $90,000 level after days of intense volatility, but upward momentum remains limited as the market continues to battle uncertainty and fear. While bulls have regained some ground, selling pressure is still dominating sentiment, and speculation about the start of a new bear market continues to grow. Many analysts warn that the recent bounce may not be enough to shift the broader trend unless stronger demand returns. Related Reading: XRP Reserves On Binance Collapse To Record Lows: Investors Move Toward Long-Term Holding According to fresh data from Darkfost, short-term stress among investors has eased slightly. The amount of BTC sent to exchanges at a loss has dropped sharply, now sitting around 11,600 BTC—significantly lower than the extreme 67,000 BTC capitulation spike recorded on November 22nd. This decline suggests that panic-driven selling may be cooling off, giving the market a temporary moment of stabilization. However, despite this improvement, Bitcoin still faces strong headwinds. Investors remain cautious, liquidity conditions are tight, and macro uncertainty continues to weigh on risk assets. For now, BTC must hold above the $90K region and show sustained strength to avoid renewed downside pressure. The coming sessions may determine whether this rebound marks the start of recovery—or just a pause before another leg lower. Short-Term Holders Face a Critical Decision Point Darkfost adds that the amount of BTC in profit being sent to exchanges by short-term holders remains relatively low at around 9,500 BTC. However, a slight increase has appeared as Bitcoin climbed back above $90K, showing that some STHs have begun testing the market to secure small gains or reduce their exposure. This subtle shift highlights a growing tension among recent buyers, who must choose between waiting for a full return to break even or selling now to minimize further losses. This situation creates a delicate environment. Even though selling pressure has eased, STHs remain highly sensitive to small price movements, and their behavior often dictates short-term market direction. The past few days have been unusually calm compared to the violent capitulation seen earlier in the month, and that calmness is actually constructive. It suggests that panic has temporarily subsided and the market is trying to find balance. What becomes critical now is monitoring how STHs react as Bitcoin approaches their realized price. If they hold and confidence increases, BTC could gain enough stability to push higher. If they sell aggressively, renewed downside pressure could quickly return. The next move from this cohort will likely set the tone for the coming weeks. Related Reading: Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Still Negative: US Institutions Keep Selling Despite Easing Pressure Bitcoin Attempts Recovery But Faces Heavy Overhead Resistance Bitcoin’s daily chart shows the asset attempting a recovery after reaching a capitulation low near $80K, but the structure remains fragile. Price has reclaimed the $90K area, yet momentum is limited as BTC trades below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages—both of which continue sloping downward, signaling sustained bearish pressure. The 200-day moving average sits higher, reinforcing the broader downtrend that has formed since early October’s $126K peak. Recent candles reflect a hesitant rebound: upward wicks show sellers defending every push toward $92K–$94K, while the tight body ranges highlight indecision. Volume has cooled significantly compared with the panic-driven sell-off earlier in November, suggesting that forced selling has eased but strong buy-side conviction is still missing. Related Reading: Major Bitcoin LTH Sell-Off Signals Cycle Exhaustion as Supply Drops to 13.6M BTC Structurally, BTC remains below key resistance clusters formed during its previous consolidation. Reclaiming these zones will be essential for invalidating the bearish trend. Until then, every bounce risks becoming a lower high within a broader corrective structure. On the downside, the $85K–$87K region remains the most important support. A breakdown below it could reopen the path toward deeper corrective targets. For now, Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize, but bulls must reclaim higher levels soon to shift market sentiment and avoid renewed downside pressure. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
The Bitcoin price has recently stabilized above the $90,000 mark, sparking renewed optimism among bullish investors. Analysts at BTIG have suggested that this rebound could propel Bitcoin towards its ambitious target of $100,000. Bitcoin Price Positioned For ‘Reflex Rally’ Jonathan Krinsky, an analyst at BTIG, expressed confidence that the Bitcoin price is positioned for a continued “reflex rally,” potentially reaching $100,000 in the short-term. Historical data indicates that Bitcoin typically reaches a bottom around November 26, gaining momentum as the year comes to a close. This seasonal pattern further bolsters the prospects for the cryptocurrency in the coming weeks. Related Reading: Hyperliquid (HYPE) Ready For A Significant Surge To $50: Key Levels Identified Another focal point for BTIG is Strategy (previously MicroStrategy), which the analyst views as a candidate for a mean reversion trade. The firm maintains a buy rating on MicroStrategy with a price target set at $630. The analyst also highlighted that the week of Thanksgiving often aligns with momentum resets for digital assets, reinforcing expectations for a tactical upward movement into December. Reversion Ahead To $50,000 Adding to the optimistic outlook, market analyst Rekt Capital recently mentioned that if the Bitcoin price can reclaim its position above the $94,180 mark, it would flip the 2025 yearly candle into a green one, substantiating theories of a potential rally for the leading cryptocurrency in the waning days of the year. However, Bitcoin must navigate certain hurdles to sustain this momentum. Rekt noted that for Bitcoin to build on its current prospects and approach the Macro downtrend line, it would require a weekly close above approximately $93,500, turning that level into support, similar to patterns observed in previous green cycles. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Future: The Polarized Predictions Between Bulls And Bears—Who Will Prevail? At the same time, Mike McGlone, an analyst at Bloomberg, has voiced concerns on social media regarding the Bitcoin price trajectory for the coming days. He suggested that a typical reversion to around $50,000 might be in the books now, emphasizing Bitcoin’s close correlation with the S&P 500. McGlone pointed out that the S&P 500’s 120-day volatility was at its lowest year-end level since 2017, indicating potential headwinds for Bitcoin. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Crypto-related stocks are higher across the board, led by the bitcoin miners.
A fast 36% reset for bitcoin marked by unusual dominance behavior and a market wide deleveraging.
A crypto analyst has shared a technical analysis for the Bitcoin price, predicting a foreboding crash to $41,000. According to the analysis, Bitcoin has formed an unexpected harmonic “Shark” pattern that could extend its downtrend. While a drop to this low level could amplify the fear and uncertainty already plaguing the market, the analyst highlights that the appearance of this pattern is usually bullish. Shark Pattern Signals Bitcoin Price Crash To $41,000 Crypto analyst Tony Severino disclosed on X this Wednesday that Bitcoin is forming a rare bullish harmonic pattern on the weekly timeframe. Severino warns that rather than worrying about BTC whale activity, traders should not overlook this distinct pattern, describing it as a “Shark in the water.” Related Reading: XRP 100x Rally To $225: Why The Only Place To Go Is Up In his accompanying chart, the analyst traced the Shark pattern, showing an ABCD harmonic structure. He set his primary target at “D,” which aligns with the $41,000 level. Based on the pattern’s projected trajectory, the analyst believes Bitcoin is likely to face more downside. He predicts that the cryptocurrency could still crash to around $41,000, eliminating more than 55% of its current price of over $91,000. Notably, Severino highlighted that harmonic patterns, such as the one observed in the BTC chart, often rely on specific Fibonacci ratios. As a result, the figures observed in the current setup are hard to ignore. While his initial projections are significantly bearish, the analyst highlights that a harmonic Shark pattern is traditionally considered a bullish reversal signal once the final leg completes. Bitcoin’s Next Move Stuck Between Bearish And Bullish Another crypto analyst, Ted Pillows, has shared a technical analysis of the Bitcoin price outlook. However, his report outlines a bearish and bullish outcome depending on how BTC’s price moves in the coming days. Pillows’ forecast centers on the levels Bitcoin must reclaim to avoid a deeper price correction. Right now, the cryptocurrency is trading above $91,500 after falling by approximately 20% over the past month. Bitcoin has also faced significant negative sentiment despite its recent price recovery. Related Reading: XRP Has Just Flashed ‘The Real Signal’, Analyst Reveals Where Price Is Headed In his post, Pillows noted that after breaking back above $89,000, Bitcoin is now moving higher, approaching a heavy resistance range between $93,000 and $94,000. The analyst has identified this region as a critical decision point that will determine the cryptocurrency’s next direction. His chart analysis outlines two potential outcomes. If Bitcoin reclaims and stays above the resistance zone, it could open the door for momentum to push its price above $100,000. Surpassing this threshold could also see the cryptocurrency climb toward $106,000 and $108,000. On the other hand, if BTC rejects the $93,000-$94,000 range, Pillows expects a retreat toward $88,000. Should this level fail as well, he has set a lower support zone between $80,000 and $82,000. Further decline below this range could drag Bitcoin’s price down toward $78,600. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin’s October flush to $80,000 marked the end of a liquidity-driven reset, not the start of a new bear market – and that the structural forces that pushed BTC down are now reversing. $80,000 Was The Bottom As Dollar Liquidity Turns In a Milk Road Show episode recorded November 26 and released November 27, the BitMEX co-founder argued that the much-celebrated US spot ETF “institutional bid” was largely a leveraged basis trade that has now run its course at the same time as US dollar liquidity appears to have bottomed. “And so that’s why I believe that the $80,000 dip on Bitcoin recently is the bottom,” Hayes said. “And now we’re going to have a supportive liquidity situation, at least marginally on the dollar, and we’re bottom here and can go higher.” Hayes is still openly targeting a blow-off move into the $200,000–$250,000 range by year-end, repeating the call from his recent “Snow Forecast” essay. “I’m going to stick with it,” he said. “If I’m wrong it doesn’t matter. I’m long, right? I’m still happy either way. It’s either $200k–$250k or not.” Related Reading: Bitcoin’s New ‘Line In The Sand’ May Be $82,000, Not $56,000: Analyst At the time of recording, the host noted Bitcoin was “back above $90K.” Hayes said ETF flow charts that dominated crypto social media in the spring and summer badly misled retail. He pointed to the largest holders of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) – Brevan Howard, Goldman Sachs, Millennium, Avenue, Jane Street – as evidence that the dominant players were not long-only allocators. “These entities are not places where they’re just going to go long Bitcoin,” he said. Instead, they were running a standard basis trade: buying IBIT, pledging it as collateral and shorting CME futures. “They were making, let’s call it 7 to 10% per annum on that trade. They fund Fed funds at four-ish percent and they lever it up.” When the futures basis collapsed following the October 10 liquidation cascade, that trade had to be unwound by selling the ETF and covering futures shorts, flipping net ETF flows from strong inflows to outflows. Retail investors misread that as “institutions turning bearish.” “Retail thinks, ‘Oh no, institutions loved Bitcoin in the summer and now they hate it in the fall, therefore I need to get rid of my exposure as well,’ not understanding what was driving those flows in the first place,” Hayes said. He paired this with a second temporary pillar: listed digital asset treasury (DAT) companies that issue stock or debt to buy Bitcoin. Once those vehicles traded at net asset value or a discount, new issuance became uneconomic and in some cases incentivized selling BTC to buy back shares, removing another marginal buyer. Macro Conditions Are The Key Catalyst Against that micro backdrop, Hayes situates a much larger macro shift. He tracks a proprietary US dollar liquidity index built from Fed balance sheet series and commercial bank data. In his telling, roughly a trillion dollars of liquidity was drained from dollar money markets from July onward due to Treasury General Account (TGA) refilling and Federal Reserve quantitative tightening. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is Now Tied To A 2-Year Cycle, Warns Investment Firm CIO In 2023, then-Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen could offset that drain by issuing huge amounts of high-yielding T-bills that pulled about $2.5 trillion out of the Fed’s reverse repo facility back into the system. In 2025, he argues, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had no such reservoir to tap. Now, Hayes says, both the TGA rebuild and QT have effectively run their course. The TGA has been restored to its target zone, and the Fed has halted balance sheet runoff. “We have essentially bottomed on the liquidity chart and the direction in the future is higher,” he said, adding that markets are still waiting to see how the Trump administration actually delivers on promises of massive credit creation via industrial policy, bank lending and a more dovish Fed. He expects the next leg of liquidity to come more from commercial banks than the central bank, citing early signs of rising bank lending and public commitments from institutions like JPMorgan to finance large industrial programs. Hayes was equally direct on the October 10 wipeout, calling it a harsh lesson for underprepared leveraged traders rather than a coordinated hunt. “People think that I’m going to get off of work and trade leveraged crypto for a few hours and I’m going to somehow make money. No, you’re going to get liquidated,” he said. “If you are a proper trader, you should not get liquidated. Period.” On positioning, Hayes said he used the post-crash environment to buy what he considers fundamentally strong altcoins like Pendle, Ethena and EtherFi at levels last seen months earlier. He expects those to outperform ETH in the short term but still backs the long-term “institutional DeFi” narrative that could take Ethereum to “the $10,000 to $20,000 price by the end of the cycle.” For now, his core thesis is simple: the ETF basis trade is largely gone, the liquidity drain is over, leverage has been flushed – and the macro tide, in his view, is turning back in Bitcoin’s favour. At press time, BTC traded at $91,004. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Strategic Income Opportunities Portfolio expands its allocation to the iShares Bitcoin Trust amid rising institutional demand.