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As Bitcoin (BTC) stalls near the $113,000 level, Ethereum (ETH) continues to show strength, highlighting a clear divergence in price action between the top two cryptocurrencies by market cap. This contrast has some investors considering a rotation from BTC into ETH to capture the latter’s bullish momentum. Bitcoin Shows Correction Risks – Is ETH Safe? According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor XWIN Research Japan, on-chain data reveals underlying weakness in BTC price action. By contrast, ETH is displaying notable resilience even as broader crypto market momentum fades. Related Reading: Bitcoin Slides Below $115,000 While Spot Volume Surges Past $6 Billion – Recovery Ahead? Currently, Bitcoin’s exchange reserves are hovering around 2.53 million BTC, showing little sign of declining despite recent volatility. For context, BTC has fallen 5.4% over the past week. Historically, shrinking exchange reserves have indicated BTC moving off exchanges for long-term holding, which reduces near-term sell pressure. This time, however, reserves remain flat, suggesting that a significant portion of BTC supply is still liquid and available for selling. Flat exchange reserves – combined with BTC’s recent drop from $123,000 to $113,000 – have raised red flags for a possible short-term correction. Meanwhile, ETH’s on-chain dynamics tell a very different story. Unlike BTC, ETH has consistently recorded large net outflows from exchanges, with multiple spikes exceeding 300,000 ETH in late July and mid-August. XWIN Research Japan explained: Outflows usually reflect coins moving into cold storage, staking, or institutional custody, tightening the available supply on the open market. ETH’s price has been between $4.150 to $4,400, aligning with the outflow trend and reinforcing a bullish narrative of a potential supply shock. In short, while BTC is consolidating with lingering sell-side liquidity, ETH’s declining exchange balances signal rising institutional demand. These opposing dynamics suggest capital may be rotating from BTC to ETH. Different Dynamics Between BTC And ETH Beyond exchange reserves, other indicators also highlight further downside risk for BTC and growing institutional interest in ETH, reinforcing the market’s preference for Ethereum over Bitcoin. Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear Is Back: Traders Flip As Price Plunges To $113,000 For instance, noted crypto analyst Xanrox recently offered a dramatic price prediction for BTC, stating that it may crash all the way down to $60,000 – almost a 50% fall from its current market price. Meanwhile, whales continue to increase their exposure to ETH, growing their holdings at a rapid pace as ETH’s relative strength compared to BTC improves. Yesterday, an Ethereum whale went long on $300 million worth of ETH on-chain. From a technical perspective as well, things look positive for ETH, with a potential recovery to $4,788 on the cards. At press time, BTC trades at $112,283, down 0.7% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Bitcoin is trading at a pivotal level after losing momentum from the $120,000 zone and slipping into deeper volatility. The price is now testing the $112,000 support level, a key zone for bulls to defend in order to avoid further bearish pressure. While the broader trend remains constructive in the long term, the short-term outlook has tilted toward weakness, with momentum indicators showing a leaning toward the downside. Related Reading: Whale Loads Up $300M Ethereum Onchain: Did He Just Catch The Bottom? Analysts highlight this moment as a potential inflection point for the market. A strong defense of current levels could reset sentiment and allow Bitcoin to consolidate before another breakout attempt. However, failure to hold above $112K may trigger a sharper correction, opening the path toward deeper support levels. Adding to the cautious tone, CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, shared new data showing that the CryptoQuant Bull Score Index has shifted into a neutral signal. This shift highlights that while selling pressure hasn’t fully taken over, the market is no longer in clear bullish territory. The coming days will be decisive in determining Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory. Bitcoin Indicator Signals Caution According to CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, Bitcoin’s Bull Score Index has shifted from a “Bullish Cooldown” phase to a “Neutral” phase. The index, which tracks overall market strength using a combination of trading flows, investor behavior, and derivatives data, declined from 70 to 50. This move signals that bullish momentum has weakened, leaving Bitcoin in a more balanced state between buyers and sellers. Moreno noted that “for risk management purposes, further softening in the index indicates price could go lower.” This means that while the neutral zone doesn’t yet imply a confirmed downtrend, any additional deterioration could increase the probability of deeper corrections. Traders are therefore closely watching upcoming sessions, as price action around the $112K–$115K support zone will be critical in shaping short-term direction. The broader context remains constructive. Bitcoin has been in a steady uptrend since 2023, a cycle that has already delivered massive gains and propelled the asset to new all-time highs above $124K earlier this month. Many analysts argue that the market is now in the final phase of this bull run, where volatility typically rises and investor sentiment becomes divided between expectations of continuation and warnings of exhaustion. As the month comes to an end, global macroeconomic factors—including interest rate policies, institutional inflows, and liquidity conditions—will play a decisive role. If Bitcoin holds its support and fundamentals remain strong, this neutral phase may simply represent a healthy pause before the next upward move. Conversely, if weakness persists, the market could be signaling the start of a deeper consolidation phase. Related Reading: Bitcoin Retail Transfers Collapse: Lowest Since Bull Market Peak In 2021 Price Action: Testing critical Support Level Bitcoin is currently trading around $112,837, after a sharp decline from its all-time high near $123,217. The daily chart shows that BTC has slipped below the 50-day SMA ($116,158) and is now testing the 100-day SMA ($111,224) as support. This level has become a crucial line of defense for bulls. The rejection from the $123K region highlights strong resistance overhead, which has led to several failed breakout attempts. The structure suggests that BTC has entered a consolidation phase, with the $111K–$116K zone serving as the immediate range. A decisive breakdown below $111K could open the way toward the 200-day SMA ($100,597), a level many analysts see as the final support for this cycle’s uptrend. Related Reading: Ethereum Treasury Boom Drives Demand: Can The Market Handle The Risks? Momentum indicators also align with weakening bullish pressure, as recent candles show lower highs and lower lows. However, holding above the 100-day moving average would strengthen the bull case, potentially setting up a rebound toward $118K and eventually retesting $123K. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Donald Trump’s new pro-crypto political action committee has received a very large Bitcoin donation that could help shape the future of digital assets in America. Billionaire twins Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, who are best known as the founders of the Gemini crypto exchange, announced on Wednesday that they donated $21 million in Bitcoin to the group called the Digital Freedom Fund.  Winklevoss Twins Back Trump With $21M Bitcoin Donation Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss said they made the donation because they believe Trump has already taken real steps to bring digital assets into the mainstream, and they want to help him keep that momentum. Tyler Winklevoss explained that the president has been able to move quickly on his agenda because of the support he receives from the Republican-controlled Congress, and he added that it is important to protect that support when voters head into the midterm elections in 2026. Related Reading: Dogecoin Gets $153.8 Million Boost With This Latest Acquisition The Digital Freedom Fund movement aims to preserve what it terms “America’s Golden Age”. For the twins, this means giving Trump the tools to finish his push for stronger crypto reforms. Although the PAC’s website has not yet updated its records to show the $21 million donation, the announcement is already being seen as one of the biggest signs yet that major crypto leaders are ready to get directly involved in politics to shape the rules that will govern the industry. PAC’s Agenda: Pro-Crypto Laws And CBDC Ban The Digital Freedom Fund has outlined a comprehensive plan that focuses on supporting senators and House members who will pass laws that make it easier for crypto companies and users to grow without excessive restrictions. The PAC has also promised to fight for a “Skinny Market Structure Bill” that would limit regulators’ power over crypto markets while protecting the rights of developers, publishers, and users to build and transact freely.  Related Reading: Shiba Inu Takes Major Step With Community Governance Model — Details As part of this plan, the PAC wants to put forward a “crypto bill of rights” that would clearly state that Americans should always have the freedom to own Bitcoin and other digital currencies, to keep them safe in their wallets, and to use them in everyday transactions without the fear of being punished, which has been a primary concern in past cases such as those involving the Tornado Cash developers and the Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht. Although the House of Representatives passed a bill in July to block the Federal Reserve from moving forward with a CBDC, the bill is still waiting in the Senate, and the PAC says it will keep fighting until a full ban is in place. With Trump’s leadership and the new funding from the Winklevoss twins, the Digital Freedom Fund is preparing to utilize its resources to shape the 2026 midterm elections and maintain the U.S. on a pro-crypto path. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

On-chain analytics platform Lookonchain has drawn attention to a 7-year-old Bitcoin whale who is betting big on Ethereum. This comes amid a crypto market pullback, which has seen ETH and BTC record significant losses.  Bitcoin Whale Sells $76 Million To Buy Ethereum In an X post, Lookonchain revealed that a Bitcoin OG, which is holding 14,837 BTC ($1.69 billion), had sold 670.1 BTC ($76 million) and opened long positions of 68,130 ETH ($295 million). The whale made this move by depositing the $76 million BTC to Hyperliquid and selling it off before going long on ETH across four wallets, totaling 68,130 ETH.  Related Reading: Analyst Warns Investors To Avoid Bitcoin At All Cost As Price Is Going Below $60,000 This Bitcoin whale received 14,837 BTC seven years ago, which was worth $107.5 million back then, from HTX and Binance when Bitcoin was trading at $7,242. With this recent move, there is the possibility that the whale is now turning their attention to Ethereum, as the investor anticipates a massive move from the largest altcoin by market cap.  Furthermore, in another X post, Lookonchain revealed that the Bitcoin whale tried to play it safe on their Ethereum investment as they began closing the long positions and switched to buy spot ETH. In the process, the whale deposited another 1,000 BTC ($113.95 million) to Hyperliquid to buy ETH and bought 19,794 ETH ($85 million) Meanwhile, the Bitcoin OG also moved to trade Ethereum using leverage again and therefore proceeded to create a new wallet and deposited $20 million USDC to go long on ETH with 6x leverage. This brought the whale’s total holdings to 78,265 ETH ($334 million) across five wallets.  More Ethereum Buys From The Bitcoin OG The Bitcoin investor has continued to double down on their conviction in Ethereum. The whale has now sold 3,142 BTC ($356.47 million) over the last two days and has bought 55,039 ETH ($237 million) through spot trading and opened a 135,265 ETH ($577 million) long position. Hyperliquid data shows that three out of the five long positions are currently in profit. The largest of them is an unrealized gain of over $2 million.  Related Reading: Trader Goes From $43M To $770,000 As Ethereum Price Retraces, Here’s How Lookonchain spotted another Bitcoin OG who deposited BTC into Hyperliquid to sell and buy ETH. On-chain data shows that this whale received 85,947 BTC ($547 million) seven years ago, similar to the earlier Bitcoin OG. Based on this, the on-chain analytics platform opined that it is likely the same whale. Another whale also recently created a new wallet and withdrew 11,950 ETH ($51.32 million) from Binance.  At the time of writing, the Ethereum price is trading at around $4,280, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin (BTC) recently surged to a new all-time high, surpassing $124,000, only to experience a subsequent drop of 9%. This volatility has sparked widespread speculation about the current state of the bull market, the potential for an ongoing “alt season,” and whether Bitcoin has reached its peak.  In light of the current price action, market expert Miles Deutscher has shared insights on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), suggesting that August may be viewed as a significant trap in the crypto market.  Two Scenarios For Bitcoin First, Deutscher points out a significant change in market strength. Ethereum (ETH) seems to be outperforming Bitcoin in terms of both price and narrative. He claims that Bitcoin has been showing signs of structural weakness since early July. Related Reading: Analyst Sounds The Alarm—Bitcoin Could Slide Toward $88K A key factor contributing to this downturn, according to the expert’s analysis, is the diminishing influence of Strategy’s (MicroStrategy) treasury purchases, which previously fueled the cryptocurrency’s last rally.  Deutscher asserts that this decline in demand has resulted in stalling momentum for BTC, leading him to speculate that it may remain range-bound until further clarity emerges from upcoming interest rate decisions. In his analysis, Deutscher outlines two potential scenarios for the Bitcoin price trajectory. The first possibility involves a dip to the lows around $111,000, which could coincide with Ethereum’s critical support level of $4,000.  The second scenario envisions a reclaiming of the mid-range price of $115,500, which could pave the way for renewed upward momentum.  Conversely, the narrative surrounding Ethereum continues to significantly gain traction, bolstered by an estimated $27 billion in sidelined capital poised for investment in the decentralized asset token (DAT) ecosystem. What’s Next For Ethereum And Crypto Market? Interestingly, ETH has recently surpassed BTC in terms of trading volume for treasury companies. Deutscher notes that this trend suggests Ethereum still has considerable room for growth relative to Bitcoin, making it a less saturated trade.  This relative strength is reflected in the performance of altcoins, which have shown resilience against Bitcoin. Unlike past corrections, where altcoins suffered significant losses, this time the altcoin market has maintained support and exhibited bullish signals. Related Reading: Dogecoin Holder Count Surges Toward New All-Time Highs — Here Are The Figures Amid the current market reaction, macroeconomic factors have played a crucial role in price action. Uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policies, in light of the upcoming Jackson Hole speech, has led to a wave of de-risking among investors.  The market’s response to hot Producer Price Index (PPI) data is also highlighted as it has altered expectations regarding interest rate cuts, heightening fears of a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, contributing to the recent sell-off. Deutscher anticipates that this market behavior may lead to a “classic sell into the end of the month” pattern, particularly as September historically presents volatility for Bitcoin.  However, the expert posits that once the uncertainty dissipates, particularly following the Jackson Hole event and the subsequent rate decision next month, the market may be well-positioned for another attempt at new highs. When writing, BTC trades at $113,000, attempting to consolidate 9% below its all-time high reached on August 14. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin continues to retrace from its record highs, with the asset trading below $115,000 at the time of writing. Current price levels place Bitcoin near $113,098, a decline of around 6.5% over the past week and close to 9% below its all-time peak. Despite the downturn, analysts monitoring on-chain data suggest the broader market cycle may still have room to extend upward. One such view comes from CryptoQuant’s QuickTake contributor, PelinayPA, who analyzed Bitcoin’s market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio. The analyst noted that while recent corrections may weigh on short-term sentiment, historical patterns in MVRV indicate that Bitcoin has not yet reached conditions typically associated with market cycle tops. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Treasury Bubble Popping? Expert Answers Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Points to Neutral but Upward Potential The MVRV ratio is a widely tracked on-chain indicator that compares Bitcoin’s total market capitalization with its realized capitalization, which reflects the aggregated value of coins at the price they last moved on-chain. Historically, when the ratio climbs into the 3.5 to 4 range, it signals a potential overheating of the market. At these levels, most holders are in profit, selling activity rises, and price tops are often reached. Conversely, MVRV levels below 1 have historically marked accumulation phases and strong long-term entry points. Currently, Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio stands around 2.1. According to PelinayPA, this reading positions the market within a “neutral to bullish” zone, suggesting that while Bitcoin is no longer cheap, the conditions for an extended rally remain intact. The analyst noted that in previous cycles, the MVRV ratio advanced significantly higher before a peak, implying that Bitcoin’s price would need to move into the $140,000–$180,000 range for the indicator to reach historical top levels. However, the data also suggests that corrections along the way are plausible. “Since MVRV is already above 2, the market is not cheap anymore — short to mid-term corrections may occur along the way,” PelinayPA explained. The balance between potential upside and intermittent drawdowns reflects a phase of consolidation within a broader bull market structure. Exchange Flows Signal Mixed Market Behavior In a separate analysis, CryptoQuant contributor BorisD examined exchange netflow data, focusing on Binance, the world’s largest crypto trading platform. The report highlighted notable trends across several altcoins, showing how capital movements may inform future market conditions. According to the data, tokens such as ENJ (Enjin) and FET (Fetch.ai) recorded significant outflows from Binance. This pattern typically indicates that investors are moving assets to private wallets, which can be interpreted as a sign of longer-term holding behavior. In contrast, assets like ANKR and MATIC have seen strong inflows onto exchanges, raising the possibility of either upcoming selling pressure or speculative positioning ahead of market shifts. Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear Is Back: Traders Flip As Price Plunges To $113,000 BorisD suggested that monitoring which assets are attracting inflows versus outflows could help investors identify potential opportunities in the altcoin market. “Identifying which of these altcoins are currently near potential bottoms and positioning for their next rally seems to be the most rational strategy,” the analyst wrote. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

On-chain analytics firm Santiment has revealed how the two largest spikes in trading volume coincided with recent buying and selling windows for Bitcoin. Trading Volume May Signal Tops & Bottoms For Bitcoin In a new post on X, Santiment has talked about a pattern associated with the trading volume of Bitcoin. The “trading volume” here refers to a metric that keeps track of the total amount of the cryptocurrency that’s becoming involved in trading activities on the various centralized exchanges. When the value of this metric is high, it means the traders are making a large number of moves on the market. Such a trend suggests interest in the asset is high. On the other hand, the indicator having a low value implies investors may not be paying much attention to the cryptocurrency as they are participating in a low amount of activity. Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear Is Back: Traders Flip As Price Plunges To $113,000 Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the trading volume for Bitcoin and other top coins in the sector over the last few months: In the above graph, Santiment has highlighted two large spikes in the trading volume of Bitcoin. The first of these, involving a movement of $84.08 billion in the asset, occurred at the start of April. Interestingly, this spike coincided with BTC’s tariff-driven dip. The other spike took place just earlier this month and saw the indicator hit a high of $90.90 billion. This time, the elevated trading volume came alongside BTC’s new all-time high (ATH) above the $124,000 level. “Note that the two largest volume spikes from Bitcoin signaled the optimal time to buy (as prices were falling) and sell (as prices peaked to a new ATH),” explains the analytics firm. What could be the explanation behind the pattern? Generally, the higher the trading activity, the more likely BTC is to observe some kind of volatility. This is because the moves being made by investors act as fuel for price moves. Where the emerging volatility may lead the asset is hard to say based on the trading volume data alone, as it doesn’t separate between buying and selling moves. Spikes that come near price lows, however, can be signs of buying. This is what happened in April. Similarly, a particularly sharp uptick in activity after rallies, like the one seen earlier in the month, can be a sign of profit-taking. Related Reading: Dogecoin Coils Up: Triangle Break Could Spark 40% Move, Analyst Says At present, Bitcoin trading volume remains elevated, but its current value of $66 billion is clearly still a step below the levels seen during the aforementioned turnarounds. BTC Price Bitcoin has been facing sustained bearish momentum recently as its price has gradually been sliding down, with its latest value coming at $113,000. Featured image from Dall-E, Santiment.net, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is navigating a critical juncture after reaching a new all-time high of $124,500 last week before quickly retreating. The price is now searching for support, with volatility intensifying and traders debating whether this is the start of a deeper correction or simply a healthy consolidation phase before continuation. Some analysts remain optimistic, seeing this pullback as a natural reset in an overheated market, while others argue that momentum is fading as bearish signals emerge. Related Reading: Ethereum Treasury Boom Drives Demand: Can The Market Handle The Risks? Adding weight to the discussion, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler highlighted a key trend in retail participation. The share of retail transfers in the $0–$10K range within Bitcoin’s total USD turnover has been steadily declining throughout this cycle. From a peak of 2.7%, the share has now dropped to just 0.6%. Historically, such declines in retail participation have coincided with the later stages of bull cycles. This dynamic raises questions about whether the current phase marks a cooling of retail enthusiasm at a critical time for Bitcoin, as institutional and long-term holders dominate market structure. Bitcoin Retail Activity Declines as Market Cools According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler, while the share of retail activity in Bitcoin’s network has dropped sharply, in absolute terms it still remains significant. Retail transfers in the $0–$10K range amount to over $400 million per day, but this represents only 0.6% of total USD turnover across the network. This shrinking share highlights a clear trend: while small investors are still active, their relative impact on overall market flows is diminishing. Adler notes that this cooling of retail demand was also observed in autumn 2021, at the peak of the previous cycle. At that time, the retail share fell to a historic low of just 0.19%, coinciding with overheated market conditions and marking the final stages of that bull cycle. The current decline in retail participation mirrors that pattern, suggesting that the market could be approaching a similar late-cycle environment. This dynamic is important because retail investors have traditionally been a strong driver of momentum during bull markets. With their reduced influence, institutional flows, long-term holders, and treasury strategies now play an even greater role in shaping market direction. The coming weeks will be critical as altcoins, led by Ethereum, show renewed strength. ETH is approaching its 2021 all-time high, and many analysts believe that its performance could dictate the broader crypto market’s next move. If retail demand continues to fade while institutional accumulation grows, Bitcoin may consolidate further, while capital rotation toward altcoins gains momentum. Related Reading: Ethereum Demand Holds Despite Pullback: New Whales Enter With $192M Buys Bulls Defend Key Demand Level The 8-hour chart shows Bitcoin (BTC) under pressure as it trades near $113,400, struggling to hold above its 200-day moving average (red line), currently aligned around $113,416. This level has become a critical support zone after BTC failed to sustain momentum above the $123,217 resistance, which has acted as a clear rejection point multiple times this cycle. Shorter-term moving averages highlight the bearish momentum. The 50-day SMA (blue) at $117,017 and the 100-day SMA (green) at $117,087 are both trending above the current price, creating overhead resistance. The breakdown below these averages confirms a weakening trend, with BTC struggling to regain lost ground. Price action also shows a sequence of lower highs and lower lows since the rejection at the $124K zone, reinforcing bearish short-term sentiment. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Flip To Losses For First Time Since January For bulls, reclaiming the 100-day SMA near $117K would be key to reversing momentum and reattempting a push toward the $120K–$123K range. Failure to hold the 200-day SMA risks accelerating downside, potentially opening the path toward $110K, a major psychological level. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin has cemented itself as a trillion-dollar asset class, and institutional adoption is gathering momentum, and pressure on the world’s largest companies is mounting. What started as a fringe bet is rapidly turning into a strategic necessity.  In a recent Swan Bitcoin presentation, Adam Livingston laid out a simple yet powerful case for why passive index mechanics will eventually force S&P 500 companies to incorporate BTC exposure the moment MicroStrategy qualifies for inclusion. What An S&P 500 Bitcoin Allocation Could Look Like According to the update on X, Livingston explains that once Strategy qualifies for inclusion in the S&P 500, the index’s rules will take effect. This is not about taste or ideology. Rather, it’s about floats, weights, and formulas.  Related Reading: Institutional Bitcoin Holdings Near 20% Of Supply—Wall Street’s New Playground? When the index updates, trillions of dollars in benchmark trackers will follow. This means that BTC exposure will be piped directly into every 401(k), pension fund, and institutional portfolio that mirrors the S&P 500. The inclusion checklist is that Strategy now meets the exact criteria required for S&P 500 entry. These include passive funds like SPY and VOO that collectively move trillions and are compelled to buy new entrants, without questioning why a small initial index weight can trigger billions in inflows. Spot Bitcoin ETFs amplify the same flows with the daily rebalancing. Also, a reflexive loop is formed when BTC rises, Strategy’s weight rises, and more passive capital resumes buying. Real-world proof from prior inclusions shows how fast the index effect drives flows, and miners, exchanges, and treasury-heavy firms multiply BTC.  Furthermore, he emphasizes that this is inevitable and not an opinion. Once the Strategy clears the inclusion hurdle, passive capital must flow. Presently, the index system has no ideological filter, and it simply executes rules. For finance professionals, CIOs, advisors, and analysts who live and die by benchmark risk, it’s the plumbing that matters.  For Bitcoiners, it’s a clean, shareable explanation for skeptics who dismiss adoption as narrative hype. Once the index rules are triggered, the passive system cannot ignore BTC. By default, BTC exposure will be distributed across global portfolios. Parataxis Holdings Joins The BTC Treasury Trend In a strategic move, Parataxis Holdings has just joined the growing list of major institutions allocating corporate treasury funds to Bitcoin. Parataxis Holdings announced plans to purchase up to $640 million worth of BTC. According to market analyst Cryptoclub520, this signals an increase in institutional confidence in the digital asset as both a store of value and a hedge against market uncertainty. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Macro Mirror: Global Liquidity Trends Hint At Bullish Continuation Additionally, the firm plans to deploy the funds gradually and adjust purchases based on market conditions to reduce volatility. However, Cryptoclub520 notes that BTC is becoming a serious reserve asset for investors. Institutional adoption continues to heat up, as more asset managers and corporate treasuries embrace BTC, marking a bullish signal for long-term holders. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong put a bold price on Bitcoin this week, saying the token could hit $1 million by 2030. He posted the prediction on X and pointed to rising institutional interest and clearer rules in the US as reasons for the call. Related Reading: Ethereum Captures Investor Frenzy, Overtakes Bitcoin With Nearly $3-B Surge Short-term moves will still be messy, he warned, but the long-term case is getting stronger. Armstrong Joins High-Profile Bull Calls According to Armstrong, the shift in tone from regulators matters. He flagged pending stablecoin legislation and a market structure bill in the Senate as possible catalyst events, saying “something could happen by the end of this year.” Reports have disclosed that the US government now holds a strategic Bitcoin reserve, a step Armstrong once found unlikely. I think we’ll see $1M per bitcoin by 2030. Regulatory clarity is finally emerging, the US government is keeping a BTC reserve, there’s a growing interest for crypto ETFs, among many other factors. (Not financial advice of course, it’s impossible to guarantee) pic.twitter.com/w5EfcYFvVp — Brian Armstrong (@brian_armstrong) August 20, 2025 Institutional Flows Are Small, But Growing According to Armstrong, many large funds currently hold about 1% of their portfolios in Bitcoin. That’s small. It’s also a base to build from if rules become clearer. Exchange-traded funds have already pulled significant institutional money into the market, and sovereign interest is slowly rising. Armstrong argues that clearer rules will speed the process and unlock more capital. Big Names Back Big Numbers Meanwhile, several well-known figures have been making their own forecasts about the world’s most popular crypto asset. Author Robert Kiyosaki has argued that rising inflation and the growing US debt load could be key drivers pushing Bitcoin toward higher levels. Michael Saylor, who leads Strategy, points to Wall Street’s balance sheets, saying a 10% allocation of reserves to Bitcoin could be enough to trigger the million-dollar mark. Related Reading: Panic Or Profit? Analyst Says XRP Below $3 Is A ‘Massive Blessing’ Cathie Wood of ARK Invest has set an even loftier target, suggesting Bitcoin could climb to $1.5 million in her firm’s bull scenario. Together, these forecasts align with Armstrong’s call, though each stems from a different line of reasoning. Regulation And Risk Still Matter Bitcoin has a history of sharp rallies followed by big pullbacks. That pattern hasn’t disappeared. While proponents point to limited supply and growing institutional exposure as reasons to expect higher prices, critics warn that macro shocks, tighter regulation, or a serious technical flaw could reverse gains quickly. Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView

Arthur Hayes believes the long arc of US policy now points toward money creation on a scale that could push Bitcoin into “multi-million” territory—and, in a more extreme scenario, as high as $15 million per coin. In a wide-ranging interview hosted by CoinFund’s Chris Perkins, the BitMEX co-founder and noted macro commentator tied the path of Bitcoin explicitly to a looming political and institutional showdown at the Federal Reserve, arguing that Jerome Powell can delay—but not ultimately prevent—the return of aggressive stimulus under a Trump administration. Bitcoin To $15 Million Possible Under Trump? From Jackson Hole, where markets are braced for Powell’s remarks, Hayes framed the near-term setup as a test of the Fed chair’s pride and independence in the face of overt political pressure. “Supposedly Powell is this Volcker 2.0… Do I think there’s a high probability that Powell sticks it out and just says f*** you to Trump and doesn’t cut just because he’s a human and human beings don’t like to be put in these sort of situations? Yes,” Hayes said. He added that while “ultimately the Fed will cut at some point,” the chair may refuse to signal imminent easing now precisely to demonstrate autonomy: “What a better way to prove that you are an independent monetary actor than to say no, I’m sticking with my guns.” Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Treasury Bubble Popping? Expert Answers That posture, however, only postpones what Hayes sees as the inevitable: an overtly inflationary policy mix once Powell is replaced or overruled. “Trump and Scott Bessent have laid out exactly what they want to do. Run it hot, inflationary,” he said, using the interview to expand a thesis he plans to publish next week on how Washington could weaponize stablecoins to finance the state while marginalizing the Fed’s control over front-end rates. In a line that doubles as both meme and policy critique, Hayes previewed his framing: “I changed the meme… it’s going to say it gets, you know, it puts the dollars on its skin or it gets the sanctions again.” Hayes contends the policy lever is straightforward: pull trillions sitting in the offshore eurodollar system into on-chain dollar stablecoins by withdrawing de facto guarantees for non-US bank branches and by deputizing US big-tech platforms to distribute yield-bearing dollar accounts globally—backed by Treasury bills. He estimates the total addressable pool at $10–13 trillion from eurodollars alone, with additional “foreign retail deposits” across emerging markets. Once that capital sits in stablecoins, he argues, the Treasury can place bills “at whatever price [it] wants, unconstrained by what Powell or whoever his successor does,” effectively neutering Fed funds while creating a “sink of tens of trillions of dollars” to finance deficits. The geopolitical enforcement mechanism, in his telling, is blunt: deny access to US financial rails—or sanction foreign elites—if local regulators resist. Related Reading: Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Crash Below $100,000, Here’s When The market impact, he says, is unambiguously bullish for crypto. With on-chain dollars paying a modest yield, users can frictionlessly move into basis-trade tokens, spend with crypto cash cards, and post stablecoins as collateral across DeFi. “TVL… should go into the tens of trillions pretty quickly if… US monetary authorities follow through on this national policy of pro-stablecoin and let’s shove dollars to all these places in the world.” Against that backdrop, Hayes places Bitcoin at the apex of the risk spectrum. He calls it “the best performing asset in human history since it launched in 2009,” and rejects the idea that latecomers have missed the move: “I wouldn’t say that just because you’re coming in at 2025 and Bitcoin’s at 120,000 or whatever it is that you’ve missed the boat. We still have a long way to go.” Pressed on price, Hayes links the $15 million figure to a particular personnel outcome at the Fed: “If that guy [Zervos] gets in, you know, Bitcoin will be at like 15 million because he’s just going to do yield curve control, you know, printing money, immediate 300 basis point cuts.” While not a base case, the scenario illustrates his conviction that the political economy points to structurally looser policy—and structurally higher Bitcoin. In the immediate term, Hayes remains fully invested and is prepared to buy weakness around Jackson Hole. “If… Powell… doesn’t talk about cuts at all and market tanks 15–20%, I’ve got some extra cash and I’ll be going shopping.” At press time, BTC traded at $113,569. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff, who declared in 2018 that Bitcoin was more likely to crash to $100 than rally to $100,000, has returned. He indirectly admitted he was wrong and outlined reasons why his prediction fell through.  Harvard Economist Breaks Silence On Missed Bitcoin Prediction In an X post, Rogoff identified himself as the Harvard economist who said that Bitcoin was more likely to be worth $100 than $100,000. He then went on to comment on what he missed when he made this prediction. First, the economist said that he was far too optimistic about the U.S. coming to its senses about sensible crypto regulation.  Related Reading: Crypto Founder Predicts The Collapse Of Bitcoin In This Timeframe Rogoff, who was the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), indicated that the Donald Trump administration has gone about Bitcoin and crypto regulation in the wrong way. He questioned why policymakers would want to facilitate tax evasion and illegal activities, likely in reference to regulations such as the GENIUS Act, which have provided regulatory clarity.  It is worth mentioning that one of the reasons the Harvard economist had predicted that Bitcoin was more likely to go to $100 was based on his belief that government regulation would trigger lower prices. He had made this prediction when BTC was trading at around $11,000. Rogoff claimed back then that the flagship crypto needed global regulation to crack down on its use for money laundering.  The former IMF chief believed that if this regulation took away the possibility of money laundering and tax evasion, then Bitcoin’s actual use cases for transactions were very small. As such, he was banking on BTC lacking any demand, which would drive its price lower rather than higher.  However, that hasn’t been the case as government regulation has only boosted Bitcoin’s demand. The flagship crypto rallied to $100,000, a price level Rogoff said it won’t reach, for the first time last year following Donald Trump’s victory. Meanwhile, BTC has reached new highs on the back of regulatory clarity, including its rally to a previous all-time high (ATH) just before the passage of the GENIUS Act last month.  Further Reasons For The Missed Prediction The Harvard economist also stated that he did not appreciate how Bitcoin would compete with fiat currencies to serve as the transaction medium of choice in the $20 trillion global underground economy. He further remarked that this demand puts a floor on its price.  Related Reading: Two Scenarios Map Out Bitcoin Price Crash After Recovery In addition to being a transaction medium of choice, BTC has also gained a reputation as a store of value, which has created demand for it among traditional finance (TradFi) investors. These investors have gained exposure to Bitcoin mainly through the ETFs. Interestingly, Harvard recently revealed a $117 million stake in BlackRock’s BTC ETF.  Lastly, Rogoff said that he did not anticipate a situation where regulators, especially the regulator in chief, would be able to brazenly hold hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars in crypto without consequence, considering the “blatant conflict of interest.”  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $113,600, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s near-term path, argues macro commentator Bruce Florian–founder of the Bitcoin Self-Custody Company Schwarzberg and a bestselling author–is being set far from crypto order books and deep inside the US money markets, where a once-enormous pool of excess cash has finally run dry. In a thread on X, Florian frames the Federal Reserve’s overnight reverse repo facility (RRP) as the “surplus pot” that quietly powered asset prices for two years—and now, with that pot empty, he believes markets are about to feel the unfiltered weight of tighter liquidity. Why This Means Pain For Bitcoin Florian starts by locating the inflection point: “The reverse repo facility (RRP) is at its lowest level in four years.” He then walks through the basic plumbing. During the pandemic response, “so much money was printed… there were fewer assets than excess cash,” so banks and money funds “parked [it] with the Fed in the RRP. Safe and earning interest.” As that pool drained, it didn’t disappear—it “was continuously pumped into the market over the last few years. Mainly into government bonds.” In his accounting, “around $2 trillion in excess liquidity from 2020/21 flowed into the market over the last 24 months,” keeping valuations buoyant despite higher policy rates and formal quantitative tightening. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Treasury Bubble Popping? Expert Answers The metaphor he uses is deliberate and evocative: “It’s like a tanker traveling at full speed. Even if you turn off the engine, it will continue to drift for many kilometers, solely due to the speed it has built up.” For Florian, that drift—the lagged effect of past liquidity—is ending. “Now the propulsion is gone. The surplus pot is empty, and the tanker comes to a standstill.” He connects that mechanical turn to the looming supply calendar: “There are still trillions in government bonds that need to be purchased in the coming months and years.” With the RRP no longer acting as a buyer of first resort, “we will feel the full brunt of the reduced liquidity since 2022.” The near-term cross-asset message is unambiguous. “This is bad for stocks, bonds, and Bitcoin in the short term,” he writes, adding that “stocks and Bitcoin can afford short respites… bonds cannot.” The constraint, in his view, is structural: “The US bond market is the most important market in the world.” If the RRP isn’t there to absorb cash and recycle it into Treasuries, “bond yields will continue to rise to attract investors.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run Hinges On Trump’s Pick For Fed Chair: Analyst That dynamic, he warns, collides with political and macro limits: “interest rates are already far too high for the current administration.” His base case is that the central bank ultimately has to step in: “The Fed will likely intervene and rescue the bond market by providing new liquidity.” The path from here is “unclear… in the short term,” but the contours of the pressure are, in his telling, set by the plumbing. Florian repeatedly stresses that any turbulence should not be misread as a Bitcoin-native failure. “The turmoil is once again coming from the fiat system, not from Bitcoin. Bitcoin merely reflects this development with its volatility.” That framing places Bitcoin downstream of dollar liquidity rather than in opposition to it. The market, he cautions, will “do everything it can to drive you out of your position.” His counsel for positioning is psychological as much as financial: “If you know what you own, you can stay relaxed.” The long-term thesis remains intact in his mind—“Remember where Bitcoin is headed as an ideal store of value”—but navigating the next phase requires horizon discipline: “Because if you keep your eyes on the horizon, you won’t get seasick.” At press time, BTC traded at $113,736. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has entered a precarious situation after falling below $114,000, and sellers continue to mount pressure on it. This comes after a rise to new all-time highs, and sticking to previous trends, Bitcoin looks to be testing previous support levels before continuing on its journey. However, as the price continues to struggle, crypto analyst Xanrox has predicted that a crash is in the future, warning investors to beware of investing in BTC. Bitcoin Shows Signs Of Crash In the analysis, Xanrox pointed out that the Bitcoin price is already primed to crash in the short term. This is due to the appearance of a Fair Value Gap (FVG) that is yet to be filled, and the price is already pulling back down toward this level to fill it again. Related Reading: Dogecoin Targets $1.25, But This 170% Move Is The Start The first crash is expected to send Bitcoin to the $110,600 level, which is a previous peak. At this junction, there is a lot of support, and the Bitcoin price will probably resist the crash here for a while before continuing. The crypto analyst also explained that the strong support is due to the fact that the $110,600 level has never been tested previously. There is also the 100-day moving average standing around this level, and this, too, provides support for the price. Given this, the crypto analyst believes that this would be good support for investors looking for intraday trades as the price hits $110,600. Moving forward, Xanrox expects the price to eventually break below $110,600, and the next major level is sitting at $104,800. This is also a strong support level because there is a range and a bull flag here. The most important thing of all is that the fair value gap is sitting at this level to be filled. “The previous major swing low of 105,130 is something where people put a lot of stop losses below it,” the analyst said. “That’s a magnet for whales; they probably want to buy here.” Why Price Is Headed Below $60,000 In light of the current bearish trend, Xanrox predicts that the Bitcoin price will eventually crash below $60,000. This is as a result of the completion of the five waves of the Elliot Wave Theory, suggesting that the market is now heading into the bearish portion. Related Reading: Ripple Enters Agreement With Gemini Ahead Of IPO — Here’s What We Know The analysis also points to the break below the trendline that began back in April, marked in red. This trendline has held as the price has climbed, not breaking in five months since then. Therefore, the current break suggests a continuation of the bearish rally. As for when the Bitcoin price will fall below $60,000, the analyst predicts that this will happen in 2026. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Data shows the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has seen a bearish flip following the plunge in the cryptocurrency’s price to $113,000. Bitcoin Has Continued Its Recent Drawdown Since setting a new all-time high (ATH) above $124,000 one week ago, Bitcoin has been facing a downtrend. The bearish momentum has only furthered during the past day, with BTC hitting a low under $113,000. Related Reading: Dogecoin Coils Up: Triangle Break Could Spark 40% Move, Analyst Says Below is a chart that shows how the coin’s recent performance has looked. From the graph, it’s visible that BTC has seen a bit of recovery after forming a low around $112,400, but at the current price of $113,800, the asset is still notably below the levels from the last few days. As is usually the case, the bearish price action has worsened the sentiment among investors. Fear & Greed Index Is Now Suggesting A Fearful Market The “Fear & Greed Index” refers to an indicator created by Alternative that tells us about the average sentiment present among traders in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency markets. The index determines the investor mentality using the data of five factors: trading volume, market cap dominance, volatility, social media sentiment, and Google Trends. It then represents it as a score lying between zero and hundred. When the metric has a value greater than 53, it means the investors as a whole share a sentiment of greed. On the other hand, it being under 47 implies the presence of fear in the market. A level lying between the two thresholds naturally corresponds to a net neutral mentality. Now, here is how the sentiment in the sector currently looks according to the Fear & Greed Index: As displayed above, the index is sitting at a value of 44, indicating that Bitcoin investors are fearful. This is a shift from how the mood has been like in the market for the past couple of months. The Fear & Greed Index was previously in the greed zone since June, but the latest decline in BTC’s price has meant the investors have finally let go of bullish sentiment. If history is anything to go by, this flip in trader mentality could actually turn out to be a positive sign for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The market often tends to move in the direction that goes contrary to the expectations of the majority, with an excess of FUD facilitating bottoms and overhype resulting in tops. This effect was seen in action during the aforementioned June sentiment low, which coincided with BTC’s bottom under $99,000. The turnaround in the asset only required an index value of 42, but generally, a more powerful fear sentiment is needed before a bottom can occur. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bullish Signal: Sharks & Whales Are Buying The Dip It now remains to be seen whether the latest dip into fear is enough to induce a reversal in Bitcoin and other coins, or if sentiment will deteriorate further. Featured image from Dall-E, Alternative.me, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has retreated from last week’s record high above $124,000, slipping by over 8% in recent days. At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency trades around $113,867, reflecting a 6.3% decline over the past seven days. The correction has raised questions about the forces driving current market dynamics, particularly the role of large holders in shaping price momentum. On-chain data has pointed to a consistent pattern of selling activity from whales on Binance, the world’s largest exchange by trading volume. According to CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain, these movements appear to be deliberate, with whales strategically distributing holdings near resistance levels. The data shows a series of deposits in the 100–1,000 BTC range flowing into Binance, suggesting calculated selling activity aimed at capturing profits while minimizing sharp price impacts. Related Reading: Crypto Founder Predicts The Collapse Of Bitcoin In This Timeframe Bitcoin Whale Activity and Market Distribution Arab Chain’s analysis highlights that Bitcoin’s recent dip to levels near $112,500 coincided with an increase in whale inflows to Binance. These deposits were not massive, singular transfers exceeding 10,000 BTC, but rather repeated transactions over several days, creating what the analyst described as a “coordinated distribution pattern.” This behavior aligns with historical whale strategies, selling gradually at key resistance zones, in this case between $118,000 and $120,000, rather than triggering abrupt market declines. The analyst also observed that despite these movements, the 30-day cumulative whale flow indicator has remained steady around $4.8 billion, signaling that broader accumulation trends remain intact. However, short-term pressure persists. The data shows that each rebound attempt by Bitcoin is met with additional whale deposits to exchanges, reinforcing selling momentum. If this trend continues without a significant pickup in buying activity, Arab Chain warned that Bitcoin could face further downside, potentially testing the $110,000 support zone. Broader Market Context and Institutional Positioning While whale activity has been the focus of near-term market analysis, other perspectives suggest a more layered view of Bitcoin’s position. Another CryptoQuant contributor, known as IT Tech, noted that institutional strategies such as dollar-cost averaging (DCA) via over-the-counter (OTC) desks and on-chain settlements also play a role in shaping demand. However, these flows alone do not always determine immediate price direction. Instead, IT Tech emphasized the importance of monitoring ETF inflows, spot cumulative volume delta (CVD), and exchange premiums, such as those on Coinbase, to gain a clearer understanding of market sentiment. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bullish Signal: Sharks & Whales Are Buying The Dip This mix of whale-driven selling and institutional accumulation highlights the complexity of the current market. On one hand, short-term tactical selling on exchanges like Binance creates downward pressure, while on the other, longer-term investment vehicles continue to add to Bitcoin’s demand base. The interaction of these factors will likely determine whether Bitcoin stabilizes above current levels or moves toward a deeper correction. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

In a thread on August 19, analyst Miles Deutscher argued that MicroStrategy’s market-implied net asset value (mNAV) premium—the core gear in Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin acquisition flywheel—has compressed sharply, weakening the feedback loop that helped the company outpace Bitcoin through most of the cycle. “Michael Saylor built the craziest BTC flywheel in history. But his buying power is starting to fade. The market is now asking one question: ‘Is the BTC treasury bubble finally popping?’” MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Premium Is Fading Deutscher grounds the discussion in how investors currently value MicroStrategy. “People often overlook that MicroStrategy has a legacy software business, which continues to generate revenue. However, MicroStrategy has essentially become a company whose valuation is primarily influenced by its BTC holdings. The entire system is powered by mNAV (Market-Implied NAV).” In practical terms, the mNAV multiple is the premium investors pay over the company’s look-through Bitcoin value to access leveraged BTC exposure via MSTR. “An mNAV of ~1.58x means the market is paying a 58% premium for their BTC.” According to Deutscher, that premium “was once a 3.4x mNAV” when Bitcoin was surging, but it has “now decreased to 1.58x. Demand is slowing down.” In other words, what had been a powerful flywheel—high premium enabling cheap equity issuance that funded more Bitcoin purchases, which in turn kept NAV rising and the premium elevated—now spins with much less torque. Related Reading: Crypto Founder Predicts The Collapse Of Bitcoin In This Timeframe That shift intersected with a contentious corporate action. “Recently, Saylor sparked controversy by revealing that Strategy had revised its MSTR Equity ATM Guidance to offer greater ‘flexibility’ in executing its capital markets strategy.” The implication, Deutscher argues, is that greater issuance flexibility “may dilute shareholder value and increase financial risk tied to Bitcoin’s volatility.” He notes that “the market is quite divided” on the change. On the constructive side, he quotes @thedefivillain’s take—“Slower concentration of supply in Saylor’s hands,” “Greater leverage to justify mNAV,” and “Reduced buying pressure for BTC in dollar terms”—as reasons the revision could ultimately be benign. But critics worry about “the possibility of a ‘death spiral.’ The removal of the 2.5x mNAV safeguard for equity issuance may allow MicroStrategy to sell shares at lower valuations.” Reflexivity, in Deutscher’s telling, is the operative risk factor: “Reflexivity is a brutal force that operates in both directions.” A Hypothetical Scenario Deutscher then sets up a stress-test to illustrate how that reflexivity could bite if Bitcoin weakens and the premium compresses to parity. “If BTC’s price drops 20% and MicroStrategy’s mNAV multiple falls to 1.0x, the stock might plummet by 46.5%.” He walks through the arithmetic from a notional baseline of $115,000 per BTC, which on a 20% decline would fall to $92,000. On MicroStrategy’s “226,331 BTC,” he calculates that would put look-through NAV at $20.82 billion. To align an mNAV of exactly 1.0x, he backs into enterprise value and market cap under that scenario: “Starting with an enterprise value of $20.82 billion, we subtract MicroStrategy’s $2.2 billion in debt and add its $0.1 billion in cash. This calculation unveils the company’s market cap, hitting $18.72 billion, a significant pullback from its original $35 billion market cap.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run Hinges On Trump’s Pick For Fed Chair: Analyst The conclusion he draws from the modeled path—BTC −20% to ~$92,000, mNAV → 1.0x, MSTR market cap −46.5%—is that MicroStrategy’s equity remains a leveraged instrument with an outcome path that can be materially worse than Bitcoin itself when the premium compresses. Beyond the scenario math, Deutscher links recent spot price action to changing marginal demand. “I think BTC’s recent weakness can be attributed to the market starting to price in reduced Saylor demand/tail potential risk of the revised ATM guidance.” In parallel, he highlights how the proliferation of spot ETFs erodes the original rationale for paying a large listed-company premium to own BTC “beta”: “Spot Bitcoin ETFs are plentiful now. Why would you pay a 58% premium for MSTR’s leveraged exposure when you can grab IBIT at a clean ~1.0x NAV?” By his framing, the mNAV premium itself “was indicative of the market’s view that MSTR was going to outperform BTC.” With that view fading, the premium looks less like an enduring structural feature and more like a belief-sensitive variable. “In my opinion, the MSTR premium is essentially a gamble. You’re betting on three fragile things: unwavering market confidence, open capital markets, and Saylor’s leadership. If any of those pillars start to wobble, the premium collapses.” At press time, BTC traded at $113,624. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

After hitting a new all-time high (ATH) of $124,474 on Binance on August 13, Bitcoin (BTC) has tumbled toward $113,000, with the next major support zone around $110,000. Analysts warn that more downside could still be ahead for the top cryptocurrency. Bitcoin To Fall More? Crowded Long Trade Gives Hint According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor XWIN Research Japan, Bitcoin open interest across all exchanges has surged past $40 billion, nearing ATH territory. This rise shows both whales and short-term traders are piling into leveraged positions. Related Reading: Bitcoin Falls Below $115,000 As Binance Buying Power Ratio Collapses The chart below highlights the recent spike in BTC open interest, now hovering at $40.6 billion. Compared to August 2024 levels of $15 billion, open interest has grown by more than 150%. The CryptoQuant contributor added that despite this surge, the funding rate has remained positive, showing a strong long bias. While this reflects market optimism, it also signals a crowded trade, with most participants betting on further BTC appreciation. As a result, the risk of a long squeeze – forced liquidations of long positions due to aggressive leverage – has risen. XWIN Research Japan explained in their analysis: A sudden price drop can trigger a cascade of forced selling, amplifying volatility. In other words, Bitcoin’s short-term moves remain at the mercy of speculative flows. BTC Fund Holding By Institutions Rises Despite speculative froth from excessive leverage in the market, BTC fund holdings by Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and institutional investors continue to surge, exceeding 1.3 million according to latest data. Spot ETFs and corporate treasuries absorbing BTC provides the digital asset a structural bid that steadily reduces its available supply. According to data from SoSoValue, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs currently hold $146 billion in net assets – representing 6.47% of BTC’s market cap. Related Reading: Market Jitters Rise As Bitcoin Pulls Back—Is $135K Still Possible? That said, this week alone has seen more than $645 million in outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, following two consecutive weeks of inflows totaling nearly $800 million. Among the ETFs, BlackRock’s IBIT leads with $84.78 billion in net assets as of August 19. Still, not all signals are bearish. For instance, while BTC slipped below $115,000, its spot trading volume surged past $6 billion, giving bulls hope for a potential rebound. Similarly, technical analyst AO recently suggested that BTC could be mirroring gold’s trajectory, with an ambitious target of $600,000 by early 2026. At press time, BTC trades at $113,845, down 1.5% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s core promise of decentralization is facing a major test. Two pools now control a majority share of the network’s hashrate. This level of concentration challenges the very foundation of Bitcoin’s decentralized ethos. In an X post, Jacob King, the CEO of WhaleWire, stated that two mining pools now control more than 51% of the Bitcoin network’s computing power. He warns that the stage is set for a potential 51% attack, which could completely undermine the BTC security model and trigger catastrophic fallout across the crypto ecosystem. What This Means For Bitcoin’s Future Stability For context, the last time this occurred was in 2014 with mining pool GHash.io. The backlash was swift, while community panic spread, developers sounded alarms, and GHash was forced to voluntarily reduce its hashrate. Still, the damage was done, and BTC plunged over 87% in the months that followed, entering one of its deepest bear markets.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Jackpot: Solo Bitcoin Miner Nets $360,000 To Beat 1 In 800 Odds Furthermore, GHash faced relentless DDoS attacks, intense scrutiny from maxis, and eventually shut down in 2015. King argues that history is repeating itself. While the firm tried to cover up centralization risks, the truth is back in plain sight. According to King, this brewing crisis could be the pin that pops what he calls BTC’s mega-bubble. OTC data shows that many large whales are already rotating out of BTC and preparing for an exit ahead of potential chaos. In his opinion, even Michael Saylor, long hailed as a BTC guru by maximalists, appears to be shifting his stance.  King claims that Saylor has quietly prepared a strategy to dilute and dump his holdings and abandon his earlier promises of long-term conviction, as he knows exactly what’s coming. He also noted that the entire market structure rests on three fragile pillars: the fraudulent stablecoin inflows, retail-driven FOMO, and carefully engineered narratives pushed by the maxi cartel. Once reality pierces through these illusions and centralization risks are fully acknowledged, the collapse will be faster and more brutal than ever. BTC Price Action Fiege_max shared a bold assessment that there was an 85% chance that BTC had already peaked at $123,000. Currently, the analyst is increasingly confident that the top for BTC is indeed achieved. While BTC has had an incredible year of relentless uptrend, which is quite different from 2021, there was never truly a full-fledged altseason. However, the market still offered plenty of opportunities along the way.  Related Reading: Is Bitcoin’s Bull Run Nearing Its End? Long-Term Holders Send Mixed Signals The analyst warned that traders should prepare for their exit and not let greed dictate their decisions, as the easy mode is behind us, and the market is entering a long period of hard mode. Fiege_max clarifies that this does not mean the market is finished or that prices will collapse in a straight line. Instead, he urges realistic targets. He frames his commentary as a matter of perspective and objectivity on his viewpoint as a trader, and hopes it pushes the idea that the market is drawing to a close. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

After hitting a new all-time high above $24,000, Bitcoin has been unable to hold up the momentum and has spiraled back down again. In light of this, crypto analyst Doctor Profit has predicted that the Bitcoin price is actually going to fall below $100,000. If this prediction is accurate, then it means that this is only the beginning of the BTC decline, with more crashes expected to happen in the near future. September Will Be Bearish For Bitcoin In an X (formerly Twitter) post, the crypto analyst points out that the Bitcoin price crash is far from done. This is especially as the month of August is racing toward an end after the start of the month had been more bullish than not. With the new month already swimming into view, the analyst expects Bitcoin to break below a major psychological level. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Crash: $2 Billion In Losses Is Waiting For Traders At This Level Doctor Profit explains that the Bitcoin price correction is expected to continue and will bleed into the month of September. What’s more important is the prediction that Bitcoin will eventually crash below $100,000 in September, suggesting that the month will be dominated by bears. If this happens, it would be the first time since June that the price has crashed below $100,000. So far, the cryptocurrency has spent two consecutive months above the $100,000 level, suggesting that this has become a major support level for the price. Despite this prediction, the crypto analyst does not believe that the bull market is over. If anything, the crash below $100,000 is expected to only be a temporary correction before the move continues. After the crash, Doctor Profit says the bull market will then continue again. Historical Data Supports Bearish Month Doctor Profit’s prediction that the month of September will be bearish for Bitcoin and see the price crash below $100,000 is supported by historical data showing that the digital asset has usually performed poorly for the month. Using data from the CryptoRank website, we can see that 9 out of the last 14 years have seen the Bitcoin price close out the month of September in the red. Related Reading: Key Levels To Watch In Light Of XRP’s Macro Future The month is, on average, the worst in terms of average returns for BTC investors. It shows an average return of -5.58% over the last 14 years, and a median return of -4.43%. This means that the month of September is established as a bearish month for Bitcoin, and if this trend holds, then it is likely that the price will crash again. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) has once again slipped under the $120,000 price mark, retracing after reaching a new all-time high above $124,000 last week. As of the latest market data, BTC is trading around $115,557, down 2.5% in the past 24 hours and nearly 7% below its peak. This price movement suggests that the asset is currently consolidating after its recent rally, leaving market participants watching closely for the next directional move. Meanwhile, analysts are turning to on-chain data for signals on Bitcoin’s potential trajectory. One such perspective comes from PelinayPA, a contributor to CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, who examined long-term holder (LTH) behavior using a set of profit and loss metrics. The findings highlight that while profit-taking has begun, current selling levels remain below historical extremes seen in past bull market peaks. Related Reading: Bitcoin, XRP, ETH’s Pullback: Key Factors Behind The Recent Drop Tracking Long-Term Holder Signals According to PelinayPA, the LTH analysis uses several indicators to measure the relationship between Bitcoin’s price and the cost basis of long-term holders. Profit and loss bands, ranging from 150% to 1,000% above cost basis, help determine when Bitcoin enters zones historically associated with a higher risk of market tops. When BTC approaches the +500% band, it has often coincided with heightened selling activity and eventual cycle peaks. The analysis also incorporates a Spending Binary Indicator, which reflects the intensity of LTH selling, alongside “High Spending” signals that typically emerge near market tops and “Bottom Alerts” that occur during deep corrections. Reviewing past cycles, PelinayPA pointed to 2017 and 2021, where bear market downturns followed heavy long-term holder selling, while the 2022–2023 bottom was marked by multiple loss realization alerts around the $15,000–$20,000 range. Currently, Bitcoin sits within the 150%–350% profit band, leaving potential room for further growth, though the risk of a market top rises as the asset approaches the higher bands. The analyst noted that while green profit-taking bars are visible today, they remain well below the levels observed in earlier cycle peaks. Bitcoin Market Outlook: Short, Mid, and Long Term In outlining the potential scenarios, PelinayPA suggested that Bitcoin may remain range-bound in the short term, as controlled profit-taking by long-term holders limits upside momentum. However, if accumulation and broader demand continue, the price could advance into the $124,000–$178,000 range, corresponding to the higher profit thresholds on the LTH model. For the mid-term outlook, extending into late 2025, the analyst cautioned that if long-term holder selling intensifies like in 2021, Bitcoin could be nearing a cycle top. In such a scenario, the asset might peak above $150,000 before the next major correction. Looking ahead to 2026, the absence of new bottom alerts suggests that the market is still within the later stages of the ongoing bull cycle, rather than transitioning into a confirmed bear market. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin sharks and whales have been accumulating during the latest price decline, a sign that could be bullish for the asset. Bitcoin Sharks & Whales Have Bought Over 20,000 BTC In This Dip In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Santiment has shared how some of Bitcoin’s key investors have been reacting to the latest volatility in the cryptocurrency’s price. Related Reading: Ethereum Plunges 10% After Smashing Into This Historical Barrier The holders in question are those carrying a wallet balance in the range of 10 to 10,000 BTC. At the current exchange rate of the asset, the former bound converts to $1.1 million and the latter one to $1.1 billion. Thus, the only addresses that would qualify for the range would be the ones owned by the large investors. Such entities can carry some influence in the market due to the size of their holdings, which can make their behavior worth keeping an eye on. These key holders are generally divided into two cohorts: sharks and whales. The whales are much larger than the other, so they hold the most power on the network. Now, here is the chart shared by Santiment that shows the trend in the combined supply of these Bitcoin groups over the last few months: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin supply held by the sharks and whales saw a decline in July, suggesting some of the key investors sold at price levels near the all-time high (ATH). After bottoming a few days ago when BTC set its new ATH above $124,000, however, the metric has found a reversal, suggesting that the sharks and whales have been buying during the price drawdown that has followed. In total, investors falling inside this range have loaded up on 20,061 BTC (worth $2.3 billion) since August 13th. On a long-term scale, the two cohorts have bought a combined 225,320 BTC ($26.1 billion) since March 22nd. “There has been notable correlation between this group’s holdings and the direction of future price movement for the majority of the past five years,” explains the analytics firm. It now remains to be seen whether the same would hold true this time as well, with the shark and whale accumulation potentially leading to another price surge. Related Reading: XRP Dips Under $3: Analyst Warns $2.6 Or Even $2 Could Be Next In some other news, the number of Bitcoin treasury buyers has been falling since its peak earlier in the year, as Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards has pointed out in an X post. “The number of Bitcoin treasury company buyers continues to fall, now at 2.8 per day despite price hitting ATHs,” notes Edwards. “Is the tradfi cap-raising world reaching saturation, or is this just a dip?” BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $115,500, down 3% over the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Santiment.net, charts from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $114,386 earlier today, triggering nearly $300 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours as investor confidence in the asset remains shaky. Still, rising spot trading volumes offer a glimmer of hope that BTC may now be entering an accumulation phase. Is Bitcoin In The Accumulation Phase? According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Amr Taha, Binance’s BTC spot trading volume surpassed $6 billion on August 18 – one of the most significant spikes this month. Taha noted that such sudden spikes typically signal increased participation from institutional investors and large traders, along with some retail activity looking to capitalize on heightened volatility. Related Reading: Bitcoin Falls Below $115,000 As Binance Buying Power Ratio Collapses It’s worth noting that the surge in Binance spot volume coincided with BTC’s drop below $115,000 – a movement that can serve as a leading indicator of a potential reversal in price momentum. Historical data suggests that strong spot buying during price dips often reflects traders stepping in to accumulate BTC at discounted prices. This dynamic can ease selling pressure and lay the foundation for a rebound if demand persists. Taha also highlighted that the increase in Binance spot volume occurred alongside a decline in the Binance Whale-to-Exchange Flow, which fell from $6.4 billion to $5 billion – a $1.4 billion drop in whale transfers to Binance over the past week. This reduction in whale deposits suggests fewer large holders are sending BTC to exchanges for potential selling, a trend generally considered bullish. Taha concluded: Bringing these elements together – a surge in Binance spot volume, rising demand during a price dip, and a decline in whale deposits – the market is showing early signs of stabilization. If accumulation continues at current levels, Bitcoin has a solid chance to recover and retest higher resistance levels in the near term. From a technical perspective, crypto analyst Titan of Crypto noted that BTC is still following its weekly trendline. If the trend holds, BTC could target $130,000 in the coming weeks. Warning Signs For September While Taha suggests BTC may currently be in an accumulation phase with the possibility of a trend reversal in the coming months, other analysts remain cautious. Crypto analyst Josh Olszewics warned that BTC must survive a “brutal September” before any meaningful rebound can occur in Q4 2025. Related Reading: Bearish Case For Bitcoin: Analyst Warns Macro Top Is In Similarly, CryptoQuant contributor BorisVest cautioned that the next 1–2 weeks may bring heightened selling pressure for the top cryptocurrency by market capitalization. At press time, BTC trades at $115,489, down 0.1% over the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant, X, and TradingView.com

Bitcoin is under pressure after struggling for several days to hold above the $120,000 mark, and now the $115,000 level has become the key battleground. The latest price action shows increased volatility as momentum shifts toward the bears, raising concerns about whether BTC can sustain its consolidation range or risk breaking lower. Related Reading: Ethereum Hits $4,350 Liquidity Pool: Can Demand Hold? Despite reaching new all-time highs earlier this month, Bitcoin’s inability to maintain strength above resistance zones has fueled speculation of a possible deeper correction. Traders are closely watching whether this consolidation phase is a healthy reset or the beginning of a sharper downturn. Adding to this uncertainty, CryptoQuant analyst Kerem revealed that for the first time since January, Bitcoin’s short-term holders (STHs) are back to selling at a loss. This marks a critical change in market dynamics, as earlier in the year, STH loss realization coincided with the deepest correction of the cycle. While such loss-selling can often signal weakening momentum, history also shows that it can act as a healthy reset, flushing out weaker hands before a stronger rally. Short-Term Holders Back to Selling at a Loss According to CryptoQuant analyst Kerem, Bitcoin’s short-term holders (STHs) are once again showing signs of weakness in the market. The last time this group moved into sustained loss realization was in January 2025, during a phase that marked the deepest correction of the current cycle. Following that drawdown, the market rebounded strongly, and STHs consistently sold their coins at a profit as BTC climbed into six-figure territory. Now, for the first time since that January reset, STH-SOPR multiples have slipped below 1, confirming that short-term investors are realizing losses. This shift is notable because it often acts as an important turning point in Bitcoin cycles. Historically, such moves have carried two main implications. On the bearish side, extended periods of loss realization frequently precede deeper corrective phases, when speculative holders exit positions under pressure. On the bullish side, brief dips below 1 can act as a healthy reset, flushing out weaker hands and clearing the way for more sustainable rallies. With Bitcoin consolidating under heavy resistance after setting new all-time highs, this development becomes a critical barometer of market health. If the market absorbs this wave of loss-selling quickly, BTC could mirror past resets that paved the way for powerful rebounds. However, if loss realization deepens and persists, it may confirm a shift in momentum — signaling a potential breakdown of the bullish structure and raising the risk of further correction. Related Reading: Bitcoin SOPR Shows Potential Entry Zones: Short-Term Holders Face Pressure Testing Key Demand Level Bitcoin continues to trade with elevated volatility, consolidating just above $115,000 after failing to sustain momentum near the $124,000 level. The chart shows that BTC is currently holding near its 50-day moving average (around $115,900), which has now become a critical short-term support zone. A decisive break below this level could open the door for a deeper retrace toward the 100-day MA at $110,957 or even the 200-day MA near $100,410 if selling pressure intensifies. On the upside, the $123,217 level marked on the chart remains a key resistance point. This zone has repeatedly capped Bitcoin’s upward momentum and will likely continue to act as a major hurdle before BTC can attempt another push toward new all-time highs. Related Reading: Ethereum Demand Grows As ETFs Break Records With $2.85B Weekly Inflow Momentum indicators highlight weakening bullish strength as BTC fails to reclaim the upper resistance band, signaling a potential shift toward consolidation or correction. However, the broader structure still shows higher lows and strong medium-term support, keeping the longer-term bullish trend intact. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin looks set for a pause. Prices climbed to a fresh high, and now the market is showing signs of short-term cooling as some investors lock in profits. Related Reading: Market Jitters Rise As Bitcoin Pulls Back—Is $135K Still Possible? Price Pullback And Recent Rally Bitcoin was trading at $115,550 when this report was written, about 6% shy of its all-time high of $124,201 reached on Wednesday. The top crypto asset was up roughly 10% in the nine days leading up to that peak. That quick run-up helped push prices higher, but it also left some traders looking for a breather.   Analysts say the recent rally quickly fizzled out without fresh macro drivers to keep it going. MVRV Signals Some Caution According to Santiment, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio sits at +21%. That means the average holder who bought over the past year is in profit, and many could be tempted to sell. That figure isn’t an extreme reading. But it is enough to raise the odds of profit-taking, which can slow or stall further gains. Profit Taking Vs. Whale Accumulation There’s tension in the market right now. Based on reports, about $2 billion in short positions would be at risk if Bitcoin returned to the $124,000 region. That creates a squeeze scenario on a big upside move. At the same time, Santiment notes that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have continued to add to their holdings even after the new high. So while many smaller players may take profits, larger holders appear confident and are stacking more coins. Macro Watch: Fed Cut In Focus Investors are also watching the US Federal Reserve. The Fed’s rate cut decision set for Sept. 17 is on many traders’ calendars. The CME FedWatch Tool puts the chance of a cut at about 83%. That expected move is one reason some market participants are sitting tight and waiting, rather than pushing prices higher right away. What Traders Are Watching Next Markets look to be in a consolidation phase, with traders adopting a wait-and-watch stance. If economic news or the Fed decision surprises, price action could pick up fast. Related Reading: XRP Chatter Reaches Ride-Share Drivers — Small Survey Shows Mixed Results But without a new catalyst, sideways action seems more likely in the near term. Based on reports, the combination of modest MVRV pressure, piled-up shorts, and steady whale buying paints a mixed picture — risk now, possible fuel later. Meanwhile, short-term choppiness is plausible. Some investors will take profits. Others — especially larger wallets — are still buying. Watch the Fed date and any sudden shifts in short positions; they could decide which way the next move goes. Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin’s next major leg higher may depend less on halving lore and more on personnel politics in Washington. In an August 18 market note on X, economist and crypto analyst Alex Krüger argued that the cycle’s duration will be set by the Federal Reserve’s leadership change—specifically, who President Trump nominates to replace Jerome Powell—rather than by any fixed four-year pattern. “I have a high degree of confidence this cycle is not over because I am expecting changes in the Fed to bring on considerably more dovish monetary policy, which is not priced in at the moment; this would start to get priced in once Trump announces his nominee to replace Powell,” Krüger wrote. Bitcoin Bull Run Depends On New Fed Chair Krüger dismissed worries that a pullback from record highs marks the top, calling it “remarkable how every time you get a correction from new highs so many people start to fret about the cycle top. Over and over again.” He reiterated his longstanding critique of the halving-cycle orthodoxy: “The concept of a 4 year cycle in 2025 is misplaced; [it] died two cycles ago, and 2021 was a coincidence, as it was macro driven.” In his view, the last cycle ended because the Fed turned “ultra-hawkish in January 2022,” not because of any endogenous Bitcoin dynamic. Related Reading: Crypto Braces For Impact As JPow’s Jackson Hole Speech Looms The nomination clock is visible. Powell’s current four-year term as chair ends on May 15, 2026, and reporting over the past two weeks indicates the White House has narrowed a shortlist to “three or four” names, with an announcement potentially coming sooner than expected. Candidates floated in mainstream coverage include former Fed governor Kevin Warsh and NEC Director Kevin Hassett among others, underscoring the market’s focus on how dovish—or not—the next chair might be. In the nearer term, the policy calendar still drives the tape. Powell’s final Jackson Hole appearance, scheduled during the Aug. 21–23 symposium, is widely framed as a tone-setting moment before the September FOMC. Consensus coverage flags the risk that Powell leans hawkish to preserve optionality, even as rates markets handicap a cut next month; Krüger leans “slightly bearish into it as a hawkish speech (to reduce the odds of a September cut) makes sense, for the Fed to retain optionality and not let the market push itself into a corner.” Technically, Bitcoin has cooled after printing fresh all-time highs in mid-July and again last week. Traders are watching the previous $112,000 high as initial downside cushion, with the psychologically critical $100,000 level, the overhead reference remains the $122,000–$124,000 zone of recent peaks. Krüger also highlights that “BTC is having a very hard time going up sans leverage without triggers,” a point echoed by derivatives signals showing compressed risk appetite. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Must Survive Brutal September Before Q4 Hope, Analyst Predicts Derivatives and volatility gauges corroborate the “low-vol, slow ascent” regime he describes. Implied volatility on BTC options (DVOL/BVIV) has sat near two-year lows, and open interest on institutional venues remains off July highs, signaling a more measured stance from levered players into Jackson Hole. Krüger also observed that futures basis had eased alongside the pullback—a classic sign of froth leaking out—while options markets show a renewed bid for downside protection on dips. The macro through-line is straightforward: if the Fed chair nomination tilts dovish, markets will begin discounting a looser stance well before the first policy move, extending the cycle; if the candidate (and subsequent guidance) skews restrictive, the liquidity impulse that powered Bitcoin’s post-ETF advance will fade at the margin. For now, the immediate catalysts are stacked—Powell at Jackson Hole, followed by PCE, NFP, CPI and PPI into September’s FOMC—while price trades between well-defined levels with volatility suppressed. As Krüger put it, bull markets “don’t end because of valuations or over-extension; the end needs a major trigger.” In 2025, that trigger may well be a name. At press time, BTC traded at $115,683. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Justin Bons, the founder and CIO of Cyber Capital, has issued a stark warning about Bitcoin’s (BTC) future, predicting that the world’s largest cryptocurrency could collapse in the coming years. The crypto founder has cited Bitcoin’s declining security model and shrinking block rewards as some of the indicators of this seemingly inevitable crash.  Bitcoin Forecasted To Collapse Within 7-11 Years This week, the crypto community was shaken by a striking prediction from Bons, who warned that Bitcoin could face a catastrophic collapse within the next decade. According to an X social media post released by the Cyber Capital founder, the foundations of Bitcoin’s security model are fundamentally broken, and the decline of mining revenue will eventually leave the network increasingly vulnerable to attacks. Related Reading: Bitcoin And Crypto Market To Crash? Analyst’s August-September Prediction Bons projected that Bitcoin’s downfall could occur precisely between 7 and 11 years, when the block rewards diminish to levels that can no longer sustain miner incentives. His reasoning is rooted in the economics of the Bitcoin protocol, which relies on a declining block subsidy over time. By 11 years from now, the reward is expected to fall to just 0.39 BTC per block, translating to roughly $2.3 billion annually at current prices. This figure, the crypto founder argues, is nowhere near enough to protect Bitcoin’s multi-trillion-dollar market capitalization.  Bons also shared two charts to reinforce his claims. The first shows mining revenue in sharp decline relative to previous years, demonstrating Bitcoin’s reliance on subsidy rather than transaction fees. The second chart reveals how the annual security budget as a percentage of market cap has fallen consistently over the years, shrinking from over 8% in 2015 to barely above 1% in 2025.  The Cyber Capital CIO also pointed out that while other chains like Ethereum have successfully transitioned toward greater fee-based security, Bitcoin has failed to adapt, leaving its miners increasingly dependent on dwindling rewards. According to his post, the consequences of this are dire. As mining becomes unprofitable, he predicts that the network’s security could simultaneously decline, opening the door to censorship, 51% attacks, and eventual chain splits.  If core developers respond by raising the supply cap beyond 21 million, Bons forecasts that this could fracture the community and destroy Bitcoin’s narrative of digital scarcity. He warned that relying on a system that demands perpetual price doubling to maintain its security forever is nothing short of “madness.” Community Pushes Back Against BTC Crash Claims Unsurprisingly, Bon’s foreboding forecast has sparked intense debate and contrasting views throughout the crypto community. Many members pushed back, acknowledging the concerns about a shrinking security budget but challenging the inevitability of a Bitcoin collapse.  Related Reading: Brace For Impact: Bitcoin Price Could Crash To $110,000 Amid Signs Of Exhaustion Some argued that BTC has historically adapted to challenges and that transaction fees, along with scaling solutions, could still provide sustainable long-term security. Others suggested alternative mechanisms, such as MEV capture, sidechain fees,  or even institutional miners operating at a loss to keep the network alive.  One community member raised the possibility of emergency measures like tail emissions or block size increases, citing Monero’s ongoing debate about similar solutions. Bons conceded that a tail emission might keep the chain alive but insisted it would come at the cost of Bitcoin’s core value proposition, which is fixed scarcity. In his view, such a compromise would leave BTC unable to compete against more adaptive blockchains. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin eased back this week after a fresh peak, but a loud bullish pitch is making rounds. According to market updates, the coin hit about $124,390 before slipping to $114,158 and then nudging up to $115,285 at press time. Related Reading: Analyst Says Shiba Inu’s $0.000010 Support Could Trigger Major Bounce Based on reports from a chart-focused analyst who goes by AO, Bitcoin may be tracing a pattern like gold’s, and that pattern could point to a rise toward $600,000 — a jump of roughly 420% from current levels. Analyst Sees Gold Pattern AO’s view rests on chart shapes. He compares Bitcoin’s recent wedge and ascending triangle to the way gold moved over the last decade. According to AO, Bitcoin’s consolidation around $115,000 could be the base for a large breakout. #BITCOIN IS READY FOR A HUGE BULL RUN. pic.twitter.com/eorprzknEQ — AO (@AO_btc_analyst) August 18, 2025 AO’s scenario includes what he calls “missing legs,” and he puts a possible run above half a million dollars by 2026 if the pattern completes the way he expects. Reports have mentioned similar geometric comparisons from other watchers, though few attach a precise price target like $600,000. Market Scale If Target Hits Based on those numbers, a $600,000 price tag would imply market value in the ballpark of approximately $12 trillion. That figure would push Bitcoin past many big tech names and place it closer to gold’s valuation than where it stands now. According to the same reports, that is the idea being used to argue Bitcoin’s case as a major store of value. The math behind the headline number is simple, and the size of the move — about 420% from roughly $115,000 — is what makes the claim dramatic. Bull Case Backed By Some Big Names Institutional voices add fuel to the talk. Strategy’s Michael Saylor, who has been one of Bitcoin’s most consistent backers, continues to argue that the asset will outshine traditional stores of value as more companies adopt it for their balance sheets. Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood has projected that Bitcoin could eventually climb to the $1 million mark, underscoring the growing confidence among high-profile investors. Meanwhile, Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas Pliego has also voiced his view that Bitcoin could surpass gold’s roughly $22 trillion valuation in time. Related Reading: After Monero Hit, Qubic Group Puts Dogecoin On Target List Signals That Could Change The Story Not everyone treats the pattern call as a forecast. Some analysts warn that matching a chart shape to gold doesn’t prove the same outcome will follow. The two assets have different buyers, liquidity and use cases, and a huge lift to $600,000 would likely need long-term, large flows into Bitcoin — for example, big institutional allocations or permanent reserve moves — not just a short-term momentum spike. Regulation, interest rates and market shocks are other real factors that could alter any plan. Featured image from ETF Stream, chart from TradingView

The crypto market slid into the week in a holding pattern, with price action grinding sideways and positioning increasingly tethered to one catalyst: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. “The only big, big event is going to be this,” said analyst Josh Olszewicz in his August 18 Macro Monday stream. “Everybody’s going to be watching this, talking about this, analyzing this… What Jay says [on Friday]” will likely swing rate expectations and risk sentiment. The symposium runs August 21–23, 2025 in Wyoming, under the theme “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy,” a backdrop almost tailor-made for clarifying the Fed’s path into autumn. Will JPow Jolt The Crypto Market? Olszewicz framed the setup as seasonally and structurally tricky for crypto. Commitment of Traders (COT) positioning on CME shows commercials—the cohort he views as “normally right for any market historically”—not convincingly long, while basis trades remain attractive and open interest has crept higher across CME futures and options, including on Solana. That mix, he argued, limits upside follow-through in the absence of a macro spark. “It’s going to be harder to push higher based on what we’ve seen historically and based on this futures positioning data,” he said, adding that “when commercials are long, price tends to do better.” Flows underscore the crosscurrent. He tallied “almost a $4 billion” net week for crypto ETPs globally—most of it in the US—with Ethereum notching “an all-time high weekly flow,” while Bitcoin’s intake looked “modest” by comparison and Solana and XRP showed a pickup. Yet he cautioned that even healthy fund flows do not erase tactically heavy positioning and the lack of a clear macro impulse ahead of Powell. Related Reading: Biggest Crypto Bull Run In History Is About To Ignite: Top Analyst MicroStrategy’s equity policy change, which allows at-the-market issuance below a 2.5× mNAV premium, has also become a talking point in the pre-Jackson Hole chop. Olszewicz noted that MSTR’s BTC accumulation “has slowed down quite a bit,” and that the share’s mNAV premium is being actively arbitraged by traders “short MSTR, long spot [BTC],” further muting momentum when the underlying coin is directionless. In his view, “when the underlying is momentumless, there’s no reason to seek leverage,” which helps explain why MSTR “is going to have a harder time doing well” until either BTC trends or corporate accumulation re-accelerates. Technically, he described the near-term as “a giant, giant nothing burger.” For Bitcoin, he pointed to a $120,000–$122,000 zone as the threshold for a cleaner long setup, and for MicroStrategy he flagged “anything above $410, and it’s go time,” while conceding that the stock’s momentum is “slipping away quicker and quicker.” Across crypto equities, he saw little that was “screaming” long: exchanges and brokerages looked momentumless on his cloud models; miners’ recent strength owed more to AI/HPC stories than to crypto beta; and even the prominent ETH-linked equities that surged since spring now show “record volumes” but a “more neutral” low-timeframe picture. “There’s no reason to force trades when they’re not there,” he said. How Will Financial Markets React? The macro guardrails he’ll watch into Powell’s speech are familiar to crypto traders. On the US dollar index, he wants continued “chop neutral” and firmly below the daily cloud—“you don’t want this above 99, 100”—because a resurgent DXY “would be very careful with longs on BTC.” On rates, the 10-year Treasury “durably below 4.25” would be a tailwind, while “above 5% everybody’s in trouble.” He also flagged plumbing dynamics: the drawdown of reverse repos toward zero and the concurrent refill of the Treasury General Account—flows that could net out, but that, at the extremes, might nudge the Fed toward a policy response if liquidity strains emerged. Related Reading: Crypto Set For $1.25 Trillion Tsunami As Trump Opens 401(k) Floodgates All roads, however, lead back to Powell. As of Tuesday, broader markets were leaning toward a September rate cut, with futures-implied tools like CME’s FedWatch reflecting a high probability of a 25 bps move. “We’re seeing 83% for a cut at the next meeting,” Olszewicz said of the market’s starting point, adding that if expectations “shift towards no cut, I’d expect the markets to be very angry,” whereas a surprise 50 bps “is probably unlikely” but would be greeted “in a bullish, happy way.” For now, Olszewicz is content to wait. “I would love to just wait to see what this looks like in October. I’m not expecting anything in September,” he said, consistent with his view that crypto’s Q3 seasonality is a headwind and that meaningful trend signals often re-emerge in Q4. Between now and then, the Chair’s tone on inflation progress, labor-market cooling, and the possibility of pre-emptive easing will determine whether this week’s “nothing burger” becomes the base for a new leg higher—or a reminder that macro still has the final say at the top of crypto’s risk cascade. And with Jackson Hole’s explicit focus on labor markets this year, Powell’s framing may do more than nudge September probabilities; it could reset how investors think about the entire path of policy into 2026. At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $3.84 trillion. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Earlier today, Bitcoin (BTC) slipped below $115,000 for the first time since August 6, raising concerns that the cryptocurrency’s bullish momentum may be fading. Against this backdrop, the Binance Buying Power Ratio suggests that demand for BTC could be weakening, potentially setting the stage for a deeper price correction. Binance Buying Power Ratio Raises Alarms According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Crazzyblockk, the Binance Buying Power Ratio serves as a reliable indicator of overall market health. The analyst explained that the current reading points to a possible downturn for Bitcoin. Related Reading: Bitcoin Holds Near $119,000 As Lower Leverage Reduces Correction Risk To explain, the ratio measures stablecoin inflows against Bitcoin outflows on Binance, essentially showing how much new capital is available to buy BTC compared to how much is leaving the exchange. A rising ratio reflects strong buying power and liquidity, while a sharp drop signals weaker demand and a greater risk of correction. Recently, the ratio suffered a steep decline, issuing what the analyst called a “textbook warning” just before BTC’s latest price drop. The correction saw Bitcoin fall from as high as $124,474 on August 13 to a low of $114,786 earlier today. The analyst noted that the ratio peaked at 2.01 on August 14, showing peak buying pressure where for every $1 of BTC moving to cold storage, more than $2 in stablecoins entered the market.  In the following days – from August 16 to 17 – the ratio witnessed a sharp reversal, crashing to -0.81 within 48 hours. As a result, more buying power left Binance than entered it, confirming that the BTC market’s primary fuel source was exhausted. Subsequently, BTC underwent a sustained price correction, falling 4.7% over the past seven days. Currently, the cryptocurrency is hovering slightly below $115,000, while its next major support lies around the $110,000 level. Crazzyblockk concluded: This analysis proves that Binance is the market’s center of gravity. Its capital flows are an early warning system. A falling Buying Power Ratio signals exhausted liquidity and high correction risk. For any serious analyst, monitoring Binance isn’t optional – it’s essential. How Will Bitcoin Perform In September? If Bitcoin avoids slipping below $110,000, the short-term holder cost basis model suggests its next major resistance lies around $127,000. A strong breakout above this level could send BTC climbing toward $140,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Data Shows Accumulation Prevails As LTH Selling Pressure Eases In a separate X post, crypto analyst KillaXBT said BTC must hold above $115,787 to target the $125,000 – $127,000 range in September. However, the analyst warned that even if Bitcoin opens the month with a fresh all-time high, it may not guarantee sustained bullish momentum. At press time, BTC trades at $114,988, down 2.4% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com