Strategy’s preferred equity instrument, STRC, has been trading below its $100 par value — a detail that has quietly drawn attention from investors watching the company’s ability to keep funding its Bitcoin purchases. RR Saturn Steps In As Questions Mount The company behind the Bitcoin treasury strategy recently attracted fresh capital despite the uncertainty. Saturn, a STRC-backed yield provider, put $18 million into STRC, bringing its total investment to $33 million. The move came even as critics questioned whether demand for the instrument is strong enough to sustain Strategy’s aggressive acquisition pace. STRC offers holders a monthly payout with an annual return of 11.5%, and the funds raised through it go directly toward buying more Bitcoin. Still, the stock sitting below par has prompted questions. An account tracking STRC activity posted online over the weekend, estimating that the past week saw roughly zero Bitcoin purchased. “What will Monday’s 8-K confirm?” the post asked. The ₿eat Goes On. pic.twitter.com/tBDs2z0b4z — Michael Saylor (@saylor) April 26, 2026 That question may already have an answer in the works. Saylor Posts The Orange Dots — Again On Sunday, April 26, Michael Saylor posted on X with a simple message: “The Beat Goes On.” Attached was Strategy’s so-called “Orange Dots” chart, a visual record of every Bitcoin purchase the company has made. Based on past trends, the post is widely read as a signal that another acquisition announcement is coming. Strategy now holds more than 815,000 Bitcoin. Last Monday, the company added to that total with a $2.54 billion purchase, cementing its position as the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin in the world. No other publicly traded company comes close. The title of Saylor’s post — “The Beat Goes On” — captures the tone he has maintained for years: steady accumulation, public signaling, and near-total indifference to critics. BTC Schiff Calls It A ‘Ponzi’ Scheme Peter Schiff, one of Bitcoin’s most vocal long-term critics, has been especially focused on STRC lately. He has called it “the most obvious Ponzi that has ever existed” and warned that the math behind the product doesn’t hold up under scrutiny. The claim that Bitcoin only has to rise by 2% per year to cover the 11.5% yield on $STRC indefinitely assumes $MSTR stops issuing STRC. But Saylor is actually increasing issuance. The more STRC MSTR sells, the more BTC must rise to cover the yield. Also, if the price of STRC… — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) April 25, 2026 His argument centers on the relationship between STRC issuance and Bitcoin’s price growth. According to Schiff, the claim that Bitcoin only needs to rise 2% annually to cover STRC’s 11.5% yield assumes the company stops issuing more STRC. RR If issuance grows, the required rate of Bitcoin appreciation rises with it. He also warned Saylor of potential lawsuits, saying the product’s marketing could be considered misleading. Schiff sees only one exit from what he calls a death spiral — canceling the dividend. But he says that move would itself trigger steep losses across STRC, Strategy’s stock, and Bitcoin prices. Strategy has not publicly responded to Schiff’s claims. Saylor, for his part, appears unmoved. The orange dots keep getting added to the chart. Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards says Bitcoin may be positioned for a sharp upside repricing if the network shows tangible progress on post-quantum security. Speaking on Bitcoin Suisse AG’s podcast with Dominic Weibel and Luca Gnos, Edwards argued that Bitcoin’s recent underperformance, weak sentiment and institutional hesitation suggest quantum risk may already be partly reflected in the market. Edwards framed the current setup as one of the strongest Bitcoin opportunity zones in months, but with a major caveat. In his view, Bitcoin has “completely flipped the script” after a nine-month downtrend, showing relative strength against equities and gold even as geopolitical risk, oil-market concerns and macro uncertainty remain elevated. “Bitcoin, which has been in a massive downtrend for the last nine months completely flipped the script in the last two, three weeks,” Edwards said. “Those are very strong signals that you usually only get every couple of years in my experience.” Quantum Risk Is Now Central To Bitcoin The central variable, according to Edwards, is no longer the traditional four-year cycle, miner supply or even short-term macro volatility. It is whether Bitcoin can show credible movement toward quantum-resistant signatures before the perceived threat window tightens further. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sees Renewed Demand From US Institutional Players — What’s Changing? Edwards said he remains constructive on Bitcoin as an investment because the asset has already been heavily discounted. But he was blunt about the longer-term risk if Bitcoin Core contributors and the broader ecosystem continue to treat quantum security as a distant issue. “I’m constructive and optimistic from an investor point of view because we had such a big discount,” he said. “Today it’s fully priced in the risk and more so. For me that means it’s a good opportunity in the near term.” That opportunity, however, is conditional. Edwards said his concern is that Bitcoin’s current cryptographic assumptions could become a live market issue before the network has completed the long process of developing, agreeing on and rolling out post-quantum upgrades. “If we do nothing for two years, I probably won’t have any Bitcoin,” Edwards said. “There is a time limit to some of this stuff.” Edwards criticized what he sees as complacency among parts of the Bitcoin development community. While he acknowledged that some preparatory work has been done, including references to BIP 360, he argued that Bitcoin still lacks a concrete migration path for post-quantum signatures and for coins that may remain exposed. “Some of the biggest core developers recently said it’s not even our top 100 priorities,” Edwards said. “And I’m just like, how? For me this is the only priority that Bitcoin should have. Nothing else matters.” Related Reading: Peter Brandt Sees Bitcoin Hitting $300,000-$500,000 By Late 2029 He said the technical problem is solvable, but not trivial. Post-quantum signature schemes can be larger, raising questions about block space, throughput, wallet migration and the treatment of dormant coins. Edwards also highlighted the unresolved issue of lost coins, including older outputs that could become vulnerable if sufficiently powerful quantum computers arrive before a network-wide transition. His base case is not that Bitcoin fails. Rather, he expects growing pressure from institutions, Ethereum’s quantum-readiness work and Bitcoin-focused companies to eventually force progress. He described any clear signal from major Bitcoin Core contributors that quantum resistance is becoming a serious priority as a potential catalyst. “As soon as there’s any traction from implementing code to improve Bitcoin, I think we’ll reprice higher and this risk goes away,” Edwards said. “If we get traction on quantum, we could have a new all-time high very quickly, I think. If we don’t, we may not get one.” Bitcoin Metrics Signal Value Beyond quantum, Edwards said several Capriole metrics point to Bitcoin trading in a deep value zone. He cited Capriole’s energy value model, which he said placed Bitcoin’s fair value around $115,000, implying roughly a 43% discount at the time of the discussion. He also pointed to discounted readings across metrics such as dynamic range NVT, Yardstick, MVRV Z-score and miner-related indicators. Still, Edwards stressed that mining metrics matter less than they once did. In his framework, institutional demand from ETFs and treasury companies has become the dominant supply-demand force. He said institutional buying had recently turned positive again, while long-term holder supply was beginning to rise after a long period of selling. That combination, he argued, is consistent with seller exhaustion. It also helps explain why Bitcoin has held up despite weak sentiment. For the near term, Edwards pointed to $71,000 as a key level and said Bitcoin could move toward $80,000 to $82,000 if current strength holds. A weekly or monthly close below $71,000, he said, would challenge that setup. At press time, BTC traded at $77,629. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is heading into a rare macro window where the first reaction may age fast. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to conclude its April meeting on April 29, with the FOMC decision and press conference landing that afternoon. The next morning, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to release the first quarter GDP and […]
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The crypto market starts the week with strength and renewed bullish momentum, led by the Bitcoin price hitting $79,000. Besides, the Ethereum price is also pushing higher, heading to $2,400. The total market cap climbed to $2.64 trillion and has settled around $2.60 trillion. However, the crypto market volume has increased from $96 billion to …
Bitcoin is currently trading around $79,126, up 2% in the last 24 hours and roughly 6% in the last week. BTC is slightly outperforming the broader crypto market as the level $80,000 comes back into focus. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe says Bitcoin is gaining strength again, but it’s now entering a phase where the …
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose to 47, returning to the 'Neutral' zone from around 12 in 'Extreme Fear' last month.
Bitcoin price started a fresh increase and cleared the $78,500 zone. BTC is consolidating and might aim for more gains above the $79,200 level. Bitcoin managed to stay above $76,000 and started a fresh increase. The price is trading above $78,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $78,250 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might extend gains if it stays above the $78,250 and $77,500 levels. Bitcoin Price Eyes More Gains Bitcoin price found support near $77,000 and started a fresh increase. BTC gained pace for a move above the $77,500 and $78,000 resistance levels. The bulls even pushed the price above $78,500. A high was formed at $79,480, and the price started a consolidation phase above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $77,145 swing low to the $79,480 high. The bulls are now active above $78,000. Bitcoin is now trading above $78,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is also a bullish trend line forming with support at $78,250 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. If the price remains stable above $78,200, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $79,200 level. The first key resistance is near the $79,500 level. A close above the $79,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $80,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $81,200 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $82,000. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $79,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $78,600 level. The first major support is near the $78,300 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $77,145 swing low to the $79,480 high and the trend line at $78,250. The next support is now near the $77,250 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $76,500 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $75,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $78,250, followed by $77,250. Major Resistance Levels – $79,500 and $80,000.
According to an on-chain analyst, Bitcoin has been witnessing a shift in investor behavior in one of its major markets, the United States. This shift in its market dynamics, according to the market pundit, might be key to sustaining the flagship cryptocurrency’s ongoing rally. Coinbase Premium Flips Positive Following Prolonged Weakness In the 25th April post on X, Darkfost highlighted that the US institutional and professional investors are back in the Bitcoin market, with the price seemingly poised to climb further. The relevant indicator here is the Hourly Coinbase Premium metric. Related Reading: The Ethereum Golden Triangle That Has Predicted Every Move Shows Where Price Is Headed For context, this metric tracks the hourly price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and Binance to indicate whether institutional-driven demand is pushing prices higher, as opposed to retail-driven markets. Importantly, the version of the Coinbase Premium Index being analyzed is volume-weighted. This means that larger trades carry more influence in the calculation, helping to filter out market “noise.” Darkfost noted that the Coinbase Premium Index is moderately positive. However, what’s notable about the shift is that this trend towards the positive has been ongoing since the beginning of April — and, interestingly, it started after a prolonged period spent in negative territory. In essence, this shift suggests that Bitcoin is trading at a higher price on Coinbase than on Binance. By extension, this trend often signals stronger institutional involvement, as Coinbase is typically preferred by US-based institutions and professional investors. This is because, while Binance remains one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges globally, it is generally seen as more accessible to retail traders. Coinbase, on the other hand, has a reputation for catering to institutional clients and for offering regulatory clarity and infrastructure for large-scale investors. As such, Coinbase price premiums are often viewed as a means to gauge institutional sentiment. Coinbase Premium Could Sustain BTC Bullish Momentum Darkfost further explained that this renewed buying pressure from US investors is coming at a critical time for the market. This is supported by historical data: rallies driven by institutional demand tend to be more stable than those driven mostly by retail speculation. However, since the Coinbase Premium Index has yet to fully switch to an uptrend, it is advisable to watch for clear signs rather than randomly get tangled in the fray. As such, Darkfost mentioned that, instead of merely Bitcoin’s price, he would also be watching for the index’s further upside. As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $77,525, with CoinGecko data showing the premier cryptocurrency has barely moved on a daily basis. Related Reading: Bitcoin Traders Double Down On Bearish Bets Amid Consolidation – What This Means For Price Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
A Hong Kong-listed company wants to attract more than 10,000 BTC into a regulated asset management strategy, a target worth roughly $760 million at current prices. While the number itself is jaw-dropping, it's the strategy's structure that reveals the true scope of this plan. Hong Kong is trying to become a place where large pools […]
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Bitcoin has spent April staging a recovery from its March lows, briefly climbing back above $79,000. However, not everyone is convinced of the rebound, and some analysts believe the move is only a mid-bear-market rally before a deeper correction. One such analyst is one that previously predicted a coming peak in July 2025. Now, the same analyst is predicting how far the Bitcoin price still has to fall before it puts in a true bottom. Related Reading: Stablecoins Go Institutional As Morgan Stanley Rolls Out New Portfolio Analyst Uses Previous Top Model To Predict Bitcoin Bottom Crypto analyst Killa made a cycle-top prediction of $121,362 back in June 2025. This call was made months before Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $126,100 in October 2025 and it was off by only about 3.9%. Now, using the same analytical framework that generated that call, Killa has turned the model toward the downside. The principle behind the projection is that each successive Bitcoin market cycle produces a smaller multiple relative to the prior cycle’s bottom, reflecting the maturation of the asset. His data across five cycles shows the high-to-bottom multiple declining from 15.50x in the first cycle to 7.64x, then 6.26x, and then 4.47x in Cycle 4, where Bitcoin peaked at $69,800 before bottoming at $15,600. Applying the same rate of reduction, Killa projects the current cycle’s multiple at 3.25x, dividing the $126,100 cycle top to arrive at a base bottom target of $38,800. To account for the 5% variance that offset his top prediction, he added in two upside scenarios of $40,740 and $42,680. Even at the top of that range, Bitcoin would still be well below the $60,000 level that some market participants have cited as the correction bottom. Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @KillaXBT On X At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $78,015, meaning a move to $42,680 would still require a drop of about 45%, while a further drop to $38,800 would be close to a 50% correction from current prices. Three Years Up, One Year Down Killa’s bottom projection finds support from a separate analysis by analyst CryptoBullet, who approached the question of a bottom from a symmetry standpoint. CryptoBullet’s weekly Bitcoin chart characterized the current cycle as a five-wave Elliott Wave advance beginning in late 2022, with Wave 5 completing around the $126,000 high in October 2025. The subsequent correction, labeled as a W-X-Y corrective structure in blue, projects a final Wave Y leg down below $50,000 to $45,000. Bitcoin Weekly Chart. Source: @CryptoBullet1 On X Related Reading: XRP Signals Imminent Breakout — Is A 10% Rally Coming? According to the analyst, three years of upward price action from the November 2022 bottom through the 2025 peak cannot reasonably be corrected in less than a year of decline. The current bear phase is shown extending into the second half of 2026 before the bottom structure can be completed. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Crypto education page XWIN Research Japan has revealed an ongoing divergence between Bitcoin spot demand and derivatives positioning. This divergence points to an evolving structure of the Bitcoin market, providing pivotal insights for long-term growth. Related Reading: The Ethereum Golden Triangle That Has Predicted Every Move Shows Where Price Is Headed Bitcoin Spot ETFs Record Steady Net Inflows Since February In a QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, educational institute XWIN Research Japan highlights that Spot Bitcoin’s ETF inflows have been quite strong since late February. According to a group of crypto experts, these ETFs have seen approximately $1 billion in net inflows per week, with nine consecutive days of positive returns at some point. Notably, this trend of positive ETF inflows extended into April, with the Bitcoin ETFs recording approximately $14.45 million in net inflows as of Friday. At the same time, the Ethereum ETFs saw about $23.38 million in net deposits. According to the crypto research group, this confirms that institutional demand is robust in the market, despite current uncertainties. XWIN Research Japan notes that readings from the Coinbase Premium Index have also remained in positive territory, further reinforcing the growing bullish pressure from institutional investors in the US. Seeing as this positive trend has also persisted since early April, the analytics group explains that it reflects a broader structural recovery. Related Reading: Bitcoin Traders Double Down On Bearish Bets Amid Consolidation – What This Means For Price Bearish Derivatives Sentiment Raises Short Squeeze Potential While institutions are actively accumulating Bitcoin, XWIN Research Japan notes that derivatives markets are actively preaching an opposing message. According to group’s analysis, funding rates remain negative, suggesting that Bitcoin traders are stacking positions in anticipation of downside moves. The crypto experts explain that this bearish sentiment could be due to “recency bias” and is intended to avoid further losses after recent volatility spikes. However, this could be dangerous for leveraged traders, as institutional demand continues to pick up. When this divergence between institutions and the derivatives market occurs, XWIN Research Japan notes that a typical short squeeze setup would emerge. If the Bitcoin price continues to rise due to institutional demand, leveraged shorts could be liquidated. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $77,590, with CoinMarketCap data showing a measly 0.23% gain over the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the daily trading volume has declined by 39.19% and is valued at $16.37 billion. Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview
Demand for US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs has rebounded into its longest positive stretch of 2026, putting fund flows back at the center of Bitcoin’s latest test of the $80,000 area. SoSoValue data show the products drew net inflows for nine consecutive trading days through April 24, adding about $2.12 billion since April 14. The run […]
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Bitcoin prices are consolidating around the $77,000 mark, following a net 2.12% in the last week. The maiden cryptocurrency has registered significant positive traction in April, rising from around $67,000 to its current price level in the last three weeks. However, on-chain data indicates Bitcoin is yet to encounter the major resistance levels that could mark a change in market direction. Related Reading: The Ethereum Golden Triangle That Has Predicted Every Move Shows Where Price Is Headed Realized Price Bands Signal Heavy Resistance Ahead In an X post on April 25, Axel Adler Jr shares information on the key future barriers for Bitcoin if the premier cryptocurrency attempts to sustain its present rally. Using data from CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Realized Price Analysis, Adler Jr. states that BTC bulls face the Herculean task of overcoming price resistance at $82,000 and $91,000 in succession. For context, the data presented highlights $82,000 as the short-term realized price, i.e., the average price at which short-term holders who are investors who have held their BTC for less than 155 days bought Bitcoin. It is a key psychological and technical level in the market. When BTC is below the STH realized price, it suggests that most short-term holders, likely new entrants and reactive, are at a loss. Therefore, this cohort of investors is likely to exit the market as the price approaches this level, effectively creating a major resistance point. Meanwhile, the $91,000 level has been identified as the 3m–6m Realized Price, i.e., the average price at which veteran holders acquired Bitcoin. This cohort typically comprises more seasoned participants who have weathered volatility, are less reactive than newer entrants, and exhibit long-term conviction. However, when BTC trades below the 3m–6m realized price, it indicates that this group is largely in the red. Consequently, as the price approaches this level, part of these holders may look to exit at breakeven, inducing selling pressure that creates a key resistance zone. As Bitcoin bids to exit the bear market that began in October 2025, the premier cryptocurrency must overcome both resistance levels, which would signal renewed bullish conviction among both classes of investors. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Wave Down To $40,000 Shows When The Bottom Will Begin Bitcoin Price Predictions At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $78,028, representing a 0.66% gain over the last 24 hours. The leading cryptocurrency is up 12.29% on the monthly chart, largely driven by its bullish performance in April. Amid this rally, CoinCodex analysts are positive on Bitcoin’s prospects, with price targets of $83,262 over the next five days and $80,015 in a month. In the next three months, they predict Bitcoin should trade at $91,575, suggesting slow gains with consolidations in between if this rally persists. Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview
According to a crypto analyst, the Bitcoin price remains firmly in a bear trend and could be preparing for another major crash to new lows. Using a wave structure, the expert mapped out BTC’s price action during this bearish phase, outlining how he sees the current market developing and where he believes the next downside move could lead. Contrary to other analysts’ predictions, the analyst believes that BTC has not yet reached its cycle bottom and may first see a final surge before plunging below $40,000. Related Reading: Stablecoins Go Institutional As Morgan Stanley Rolls Out New Portfolio Bitcoin Price Could Rebound To $80,000 Before A Final Crash Market analyst Crypto Bullet has presented a bearish BTC forecast on X, suggesting that the flagship cryptocurrency may still have more declines ahead before the current bear market ends. In his analysis, he described BTC’s market structure as a “Double ZigZag (WXY)” formation, using it to track the cryptocurrency’s price action from its October 2025 peak and project where the next major decline could unfold. One reason Crypto Bullet views BTC’s bear market through this WXY structure is because of how the cryptocurrency has traded in recent months. He noted that Bitcoin has spent far more time consolidating between $62,000 and $78,000 than it did in the $84,000 to $97,000 range, where it traded from November 2025 to January 2026. To him, that prolonged sideways movement reflects a broader bearish structure still playing out. Based on that setup, Crypto Bullet believes that BTC’s recent rebound above $78,000 does not mean its bear market has ended but could instead be part of a larger corrective move. He expects the cryptocurrency to make one final push higher toward $85,000, with this level as the next major resistance above his ABC target of $82,500, as highlighted on his chart. Crypto Bullet has tied this outlook to his WXY wave structure. According to him, Bitcoin completed wave W after peaking above $126,000 in October 2025 and plunging to $60,000 in February 2026. He noted that wave X also began after BTC reached $60,000 and projected it could end once the cryptocurrency rallies above $80,000. If that scenario plays out, Crypto Bullet expects wave Y as the final leg low, which is where he believes BTC could eventually find a bottom. In terms of timing, the analyst believes that BTC still has five months left before its bear market ends, which closely aligns with timelines from past bear cycles. Analyst Marks BTC Bottom Target At $40,000 Crypto Bullet’s bearish outlook for Bitcoin centers on wave Y, which he believes could bring the most severe downturn of this cycle. According to him, once Bitcoin completes its rebound above $80,000 in wave X, the market could reverse sharply, triggering a rapid price crash toward a final bottom. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Big Players Are Accumulating — Is $80K Just The Start? He marked BTC’s potential bottom target at $40,000, expecting the move to play out between September and October 2026. From the $80,000 level, this would represent a whopping 50% decline, potentially wiping out bullish traders who had interpreted the surge to $80,000 as the start of a new bullish trend. Supporting this outlook, crypto analyst Tony Severino said he believes this could be the most likely scenario for BTC. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin is currently showing a structure that often precedes sharp volatility, with liquidity building above key levels while price consolidates below. This kind of setup typically signals that the market may first move to hunt those liquidity zones before establishing its next clear directional trend. Bitcoin Builds Liquidity Cluster Around $80K Zone Crypto analyst Cryptorphic noted that Bitcoin is once again building a dense cluster of liquidity around the $80,000 level. This area is becoming increasingly important, as leveraged positions continue to stack above current price action, creating a potential target zone for the market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rebounds Strongly — Can Bulls Drive Price Toward $79,000 At present, Bitcoin is trading below this liquidity pocket and moving within a relatively compressed range, reflecting indecision in the market, where price consolidates before a larger expansion. Historically, similar setups have frequently led to liquidity sweeps as the market seeks out areas of unfilled orders. These liquidity zones tend to act like magnets, drawing price toward them as stop-losses and liquidation points accumulate. With so much interest positioned around $80,000, the upside liquidity becomes a natural target if momentum shifts even slightly in favor of buyers. The broader implication is that Bitcoin may first attempt to sweep this $80,000 zone or reach that liquidity level and react from it before any sustained directional move becomes clear. Markets Move In Two Clear Phases According to the analyst Mags, the market moves through two distinct phases. The first being the Bull Phase, Mags highlights that while the primary trend is upward, it is never a straight line to the top. Instead, price action is characterized by multiple pullbacks, often ranging from 20% to 30%, which occur before a cycle peak is reached. These corrections are presented not as threats, but as a normal and necessary part of every cycle‘s journey, resting sentiment, and fueling continuation. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could See Short-Term Pullback Following Price Rebound — Analyst The second stage identified by Mags is the Bear Phase, which is triggered when the underlying market structure finally breaks. This shift leads to a much deeper correction than the standard pullbacks seen during the ascent. During this period, the market undergoes a process of finding a definitive bottom, clearing the stage for the next trend to begin. Ultimately, Mags argues that while the phases transition, the presence of volatility is the one that never changes. The difference between success and failure lies in the ability to recognize your current position within the cycle. As Mags points out, history has consistently rewarded those who can ignore the noise of short-term swings and focus on the long-term game, recognizing that each phase is simply a part of the market’s natural rhythm. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Just as investors were trying to steady the 2026 rate outlook, the oil market handed the Federal Reserve a fresh inflation problem. The Fed meets on April 28 and 29. On April 30, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is scheduled to publish the advance estimate for first quarter GDP alongside March personal income […]
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Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, has declined by 0.9% after a trading week with little to no price action. Although the market’s next direction remains largely uncertain, a recent analysis has provided insight into underlying investor activity that would dictate long-term price direction. Related Reading: Bitcoin Funding Rates Stay Negative Despite Price Gains — What This Means Bitcoin Institutional Flows Reveal Strong Accumulation In a recent post on CryptoQuant’s QuickTake, on-chain analyst GugaOnChain highlights a significant capital rotation underway in the Bitcoin market. The metric relevant to this analysis is the Bitcoin: Global Network Accumulation vs. Distribution by All Cohorts (30D), which tracks whether different wallet-size groups are buying or selling Bitcoin over the past 30 days, thereby revealing which cohorts are driving market supply and demand. The analyst points out that mega-whales (holding more than 10,000 BTC) have recently distributed -25.51K BTC. However, the released supply was quickly absorbed by smart money “sharks” (investors with 100-1,000 BTC), who reportedly acquired 37.92K BTC during the same period. The analyst explains that, together with the +9.57K BTC absorbed by the 1K-10K BTC cohort, there is an effect of institutional price shielding currently on display. Related Reading: Peter Brandt Sees Bitcoin Hitting $300,000-$500,000 By Late 2029 Selling Pressure Remains Contained As Market Structure Strengthens Further supporting this narrative, the Exchange Whale Ratio — a metric that assesses the proportion of large transactions flowing into exchanges — currently stands at 61.89%. Yet, Binance data shows zero Bitcoin inflows over 24 hours from the 100- to 10,000-BTC cohorts, suggesting that large holders are not preparing to sell. Meanwhile, Open Interest, a key indicator of participation and positioning across derivatives markets, has surged by about 10.43%, reaching approximately $25.98 billion. On the other hand, Bitcoin reserves held on exchanges have declined by nearly 1% over the past month. According to the analyst, this translates to a retraction of approximately 2.66 million BTC. This means investors are moving assets out of exchanges, a behavior typically seen ahead of long-term holding. When this decline is combined with neutral miner positioning (MPI at -0.50) and a positive Coinbase Premium Gap around 23.84 (which reflects steady US buying interest), it becomes apparent that sustained accumulation is ongoing, however subtle. If this persists, the accumulated supply could overcome the existing sell pressure to sponsor the next Bitcoin rally. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is $77,353. According to CoinMarketCap data, the world’s leading cryptocurrency is down 1.33% over the last 24 hours. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview
UK authorities have carried out their first coordinated operation against suspected illegal peer-to-peer crypto trading, sending a clear and simple message to the market: once a person turns crypto dealing into a business, the state expects names, checks, records, and accountability. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) said it worked with police and tax officials to […]
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Crypto market sentiment shifted from “extreme pessimism” to “ultra FOMO mode” in just three days — and analysts say that kind of rapid swing is exactly what makes the current Bitcoin moment worth watching closely. Related Reading: Stablecoins Go Institutional As Morgan Stanley Rolls Out New Portfolio Bitcoin Whales Load Up As Price Pushes Higher Data from crypto analytics firm Santiment shows Bitcoin wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have added roughly 41,000 coins since April 10 — a haul worth approximately $3.17 billion. The buying has come as Bitcoin climbed toward $80,000, a price level the asset hasn’t touched since late January. On Wednesday, BTC briefly hit $79,330 before pulling back to around $77,350. ???? The Bitcoin crowd has swung from extreme pessimism (on Monday) to ultra FOMO mode (on Thursday). Just as $BTC looked like it was going to freefall after an $80K rejection and FUD trickled in (a clear buy signal), prices quickly rallied to above $78.7K today. Now that $80K is… pic.twitter.com/AsDSovpA95 — Santiment (@santimentfeed) April 23, 2026 Santiment flagged the accumulation trend on X, saying Bitcoin’s key stakeholders are “accumulating rapidly.” The firm also noted that smaller holders — those with less than 0.1 BTC — picked up about 46 coins over the same stretch, valued at roughly $3.56 million. The gap between those two figures tells a story: the big players are moving in size while retail activity stays comparatively quiet. ???? Bitcoin’s key stakeholders are accumulating rapidly with $BTC currently up to $78.3K and crypto’s top cap up +15% in April. ???? According to our on-chain data: ???????? 10-10K BTC Wallets have collectively accumulated 40,967 more $BTC in the past 2 weeks (+0.3%) ???????? Less Than… pic.twitter.com/ViffTAQg4Q — Santiment (@santimentfeed) April 23, 2026 The Setup Analysts Are Watching According to Santiment, the most encouraging scenario would be one where large holders keep buying while smaller investors start cashing out. Reports from the firm describe that pattern as one of the strongest indicators that a prolonged price rally could be taking shape. Analysts have historically tracked this kind of divergence between whale behavior and retail activity as a potential precursor to sustained price gains. On the institutional side, Andre Dragosch, head of European research at Bitwise, said demand from large professional investors is “clearly accelerating.” His comments, posted on X Friday, line up with a broader trend of institutional money flowing back into Bitcoin after months of uncertainty. GM from Switzerland! US spot bitcoin ETFs have purchased 18,991 $BTC over the past 5 trading days. *checks numbers* That’s 9 x times the new supply in that period. Institutional demand for #bitcoin is clearly accelerating. pic.twitter.com/VtzVyjQAJu — André Dragosch, PhD⚡ (@Andre_Dragosch) April 24, 2026 Fear Still Grips The Wider Market Despite the whale activity and the burst of optimism among Bitcoin holders, the broader crypto market hasn’t caught up. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index — a widely followed measure of overall market sentiment — posted a score of 39 on Friday, placing it squarely in “Fear” territory. That reading suggests most investors are still holding back, even as Bitcoin inches toward a psychologically significant price point. Related Reading: Consistent XRP Buys Could Deliver Outsized Gains By 2030: Finance Expert Santiment says a move above $80,000 would carry weight in pulling more traders back into the market. But the firm also cautioned that the breakout would carry more meaning if it happens after optimism cools slightly. A surge built on peak excitement, reports indicate, tends to be less stable than one that forms more gradually. Bitcoin is up 2% over the past week, based on Coingecko data. Featured image from MetaAI, chart from TradingView
Following its bullish footprint in April, Bitcoin price action slowed over the past week, recording no significant change. Amid this mini consolidation, analysis page XWIN Research Japan reports that traders remain confidently bearish on the digital asset’s position despite recent gains. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Warning: Social Media FOMO Spikes Again High Open Interest, Negative Funding Rates – Bitcoin Suffers From Intense Pessimism Funding rates are periodic payments exchanged between traders in perpetual futures contracts to keep the contract price close to the actual spot price. According to XWIN Research Japan, Bitcoin’s funding rate is largely negative at -0.02, suggesting a dominance of short traders who are paying a premium to maintain their bearish positions. Notably, this development follows Bitcoin’s bullish relief in April, during which the premier cryptocurrency has gained by approximately 15% since the month commenced. Nevertheless, the funding rates suggest that most traders view this gain as temporary, with a greater preference for a sustained bear market. At the same time, Open Interest (OI) in the Bitcoin market is surging. The OI represents the total number of active derivative contracts, such as futures or options, currently open in the market. An increase in Open Interest indicates that more capital is being deployed to open contracts in the perpetual market. However, readings from the funding rates suggest this surge in OI is driven by an increase in short positions/contracts. Both metrics combine to paint a rather pessimistic picture of a market environment in which market participants are highly expectant of a deeper downswing. Related Reading: XRP Signals Massive Breakout: $10 Target In Sight As Momentum Builds Negative Setup Favors Potential Bullish Twist According to analysts at XWIN Research Japan, the current Bitcoin market setup, riddled with a high number of short positions, is precarious. Notably, a price rise would trigger a short squeeze, forcing traders to buy back their holdings at a higher price. Interestingly, historical data provide another context for this market environment: prolonged periods of extreme funding rates have preceded sharp price surges rather than the expected price decline. However, this is no guarantee of a bullish reversal. Rather, the market is still extremely bearish but nearing conditions for a potential sharp rebound. At press time, Bitcoin trades at $77,574, down 0.54% over the last day. Meanwhile, daily trading volume has declined by 21.56% to $32.16 billion. Amid its current consolidation, Bitcoin’s bullish target lies at $80,000. On the other hand, a fall below the $74,000 support zone might confirm the current bearish sentiment. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview
As Bitcoin (BTC) attempts to reclaim a crucial level as support, spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on the flagship cryptocurrency have registered their best performance since the October market crash. Related Reading: Eric Trump Calls Justin Sun’s Lawsuit ‘Ridiculous’ As WLFI Hits New All-Time Low Bitcoin ETFs ‘Back In The High Life’ US spot Bitcoin ETFs extended their positive streak to eight days after pulling in $223.2 million on Thursday, signaling strong demand for the investment products as the crypto market recovers. The BTC-based funds have been consistently seeing positive net flows since April 14, recording $2.09 billion in inflows during this period, according to SoSoValue data. This marks the category’s strongest performance across multiple timeframes since its late September-early October nine-day streak, when the products saw roughly $5.33 billion in inflows. In the weekly and monthly timeframes, Bitcoin ETFs are currently recording their best performance of 2026, tying March’s four-week streak but nearly doubling the monthly inflows, with $2.43 billion in April so far and four more days to go. Market observer Sjuul from AltCryptoGems asserted that sustained institutional demand is building again, highlighting that the products are about to close their second green month of 2026, and the first two-month streak since October 2025. Similarly, Bloomberg Senior ETF analyst Erich Balchunas affirmed that Bitcoin ETF flows are “back in the high life” as every single tracking period turns positive and cumulative net inflows hit $58.33 billion. “Every single rolling period we track is now positive, haven’t seen that in months (IBIT’s $3b is in Top 1% of all ETFs). Still tho, need a couple bil more to get back to breaking new ground in cumulative lifetime flows (62.8b),” he wrote on X. All Eyes On BTC’s Weekly Close Bitcoin ETFs’ performance comes as the flagship cryptocurrency continues to reject from a key resistance area. In a recent analysis, Rekt Capital said that while BTC’s price enjoys upside momentum, the key levels haven’t changed yet. Notably, BTC’s 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), located around $78,000, remains an important resistance level as the cryptocurrency has been unable to reclaim it on the weekly timeframe. “If BTC Weekly Closes above the 21-week EMA, then it would be worth watching for whether the EMA can be reclaimed as support,” the analyst affirmed, adding that level tends to serve as resistance in bear markets. On the contrary, if BTC is unable to reclaim this level as support, it could push BTC’s price into a post-breakout retest of its Double Bottom pattern. Last week, Rekt Capital highlighted that Bitcoin had broken out of a Double Bottom formation, which could lead to a measured move toward the $81,000-$82,500 area. Related Reading: Ethereum Faces ‘Moment Of Truth’ As Price Eyes $2,450 Resistance – Breakout Loading? Now, he has asserted that the “Double Bottom formation top could always become a post-breakout retesting zone in the event of rejection from the EMA.” In addition, he emphasized that BTC remains below the base of the macro triangle formation it broke down from in late January. Historically, Bitcoin has not been able to reclaim a macro triangle during a bear market once the price breaks down. If this trend continues, the analyst warned, then the flagship crypto could see limited additional upside toward the pattern’s base before resuming its correction toward the market bottom. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
A wave of crypto hacks hitting decentralized finance platforms in April has renewed an old argument: should stablecoin companies step in when stolen money passes through their systems? That question is now front and center again after Tether, the world’s largest stablecoin issuer, revealed it froze over $340 million in dollar-pegged tokens at the direct request of US law enforcement officials. Related Reading: Shariah-Compliant Stablecoin PUSD Moves Into MidEast Institutional Arena Community Divided Over Stablecoin Control The freeze targeted two separate wallet addresses. Tether said the funds were linked to unlawful conduct but gave no further detail about what the accounts were suspected of doing or who controlled them. The company coordinates freezes when it finds credible ties to sanctioned entities, criminal networks, or other illegal activity, according to its published policy. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino defended the action in a statement released alongside the announcement. “When credible links to sanctioned entities or criminal networks are identified, we act immediately and decisively,” he said. The company did not respond to further requests for comment. The freeze was carried out in coordination with the Office of Foreign Assets Control, a US Treasury agency responsible for enforcing economic sanctions. That makes this more than a routine compliance move — it signals active cooperation between a major crypto firm and federal authorities at a time when regulatory pressure on the industry continues to mount. Not everyone welcomed the news. Crypto media outlet Truth for The Commoner pushed back sharply. “Your stablecoins are not your stablecoins. They never were,” the outlet posted on social media. The reaction reflects a tension that has existed since centralized stablecoins became widely used — the tokens may sit on a blockchain, but the company behind them holds a master switch. 3/ On April 1, 2026, Drift Protocol was exploited for $280M. The exploiter used CCTP to bridge 232M+ USDC from Solana to Ethereum across 100+ transactions over six consecutive hours. 10+ additional DeFi protocols across the Solana ecosystem were indirectly impacted. Despite the… https://t.co/RLDwKghzjo — ZachXBT (@zachxbt) April 3, 2026 A Debate Rekindled By A $280 Million Hack The announcement comes weeks after one of the month’s most damaging incidents — the Drift Protocol exploit, which drained $280 million from the platform. That attack put Circle, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, under a different kind of scrutiny. Onchain analyst ZachXBT publicly criticized Circle for failing to freeze USDC funds after the attacker routed stolen money through Circle’s own native bridge over six consecutive hours. Related Reading: Consistent XRP Buys Could Deliver Outsized Gains By 2030: Finance Expert “No USDC was frozen,” ZachXBT noted, arguing that centralized issuers have a responsibility to act quickly when hacks are in progress. The criticism drew wide attention across the crypto community and intensified calls for clearer standards around when and how stablecoin issuers should intervene. Featured image from MetaAI, chart from TradingView
Veteran trader Peter Brandt is sketching out a highly conditional long-term path for Bitcoin that points to a potential peak between $300,000 and $500,000 in late 2029, even as he argues the market still has not produced the kind of action that typically marks a durable bottom. In a post on X, Brandt wrote: “Should Bitcoin continue with the most remarkable cyclic patterns of any market in the past 15 years, an investable low is scheduled for Sep/Oct 2026. That low might or might not penetrate the Feb 2026 low. The next high (should patterns continue) will be between $300k and $500k in Sep/Oct 2029.” Thus, Brandt the target to a single condition: that Bitcoin continues to respect the cyclical behavior he says has defined the asset over roughly the last decade and a half. That leaves the near-term setup doing a lot of work. Before any 2029 blow-off scenario comes into view, Brandt is signaling that the current structure still looks incomplete. Why Brandt Is Not Calling A Bitcoin Bottom Yet That skepticism came through more clearly in his reaction to a chart posted by JDK Analysis. Brandt’s reply was blunt: “This does not look like a bottom.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Recovery May Not Arrive Until October, Scaramucci Says JDK’s chart argued that the recent advance has the character of a “Short Re-Accumulation,” but only in a probabilistic sense. The analyst wrote, “As long as bulls fail to show clear strength and follow-through, the current low does not qualify as a strong bottom. This is purely a probabilistic view!” The setup highlighted repeated tests of local highs, fading volume as price pushed higher, and an invalidation level above roughly $80.5K, while suggesting continuation lower remained the more likely path if buyers failed to force a clean break. Brandt also amplified renowned chartist Aksel Kibar, calling him “the most accomplished pure classical chart analyst alive today.” Kibar’s read on the market was less about prediction than process, but the message was similar: technical structures are provisional until price confirms them. Related Reading: Bitcoin Enters Disbelief Phase As Traders Keep Shorting The Rally “Sometimes I get criticized by followers who have a position and want to see updates confirming that position on ‘adjusting’ the boundaries,” Kibar wrote. “Well, as the market offers new information we need to adjust. We can’t be dogmatic about our analysis. What looks like a wedge, can morph into a channel. What looks like a bearish continuation can break above the channel boundary requiring action.” That comment was attached to a BTC chart showing exactly that kind of morphing structure. What had previously looked like a rising wedge was reinterpreted as a more clearly defined channel, with several rejections at the upper boundary. The chart also shows Bitcoin still trading below an ascending resistance line and below the 365-day average near $87,000, with the late-February washout toward $60,000 followed by a rebound into the upper-$70,000 area. Nearby levels around $76,500, $72,000 and the low-$80,000s appeared central to the current battle. At press time, BTC traded at $78,196. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Analytics firm Santiment has pointed out how bullish sentiment among social media users has seen a sharp spike alongside the latest Bitcoin rally. Bitcoin Has Observed A Surge In The Positive/Negative Sentiment According to data from Santiment, the Positive/Negative Sentiment has crossed into the FOMO zone for Bitcoin recently. The “Positive/Negative Sentiment” here refers to an indicator that compares the bullish and bearish sentiment toward a given asset that’s currently present on the major social media platforms. The metric works by putting social media posts/messages/threads containing mentions of the asset through a machine-learning model to separate between positive and negative posts. Then, it counts the number of posts in each category and finds the ratio between them. Related Reading: Dogecoin Keeps Getting Capped At This Parallel Channel Level, Analyst Says When the value of the Positive/Negative Sentiment is greater than 1, it means a bullish sentiment is reflected by the majority of social media posts. On the other hand, the metric being under the threshold implies the dominance of a bearish mentality. Now, here is the chart shared by Santiment that shows the trend in the Positive/Negative Sentiment for Bitcoin over the past month: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Positive/Negative Sentiment witnessed a sharp plunge last weekend as the cryptocurrency’s price pulled back from its high above $78,000. At its lowest, the metric went all the way down into what Santiment defines as the FUD zone. What followed the intense bearish sentiment among social media users was a turnaround for BTC. The asset behaving in the way that goes contrary to the expectations of the majority has actually been a pattern that’s often been observed in the past. Generally, the likelihood of an opposite move goes up the more sure that the crowd becomes. Inside the FUD zone, the traders’ bearish expectation can be strong enough to make bottoms likely. From the chart, it’s visible that Bitcoin’s turnaround has been accompanied by a sentiment swing in the opposite direction. As BTC has approached the $80,000 mark, the Positive/Negative Sentiment has spiked into the FOMO zone. The analytics firm noted: Prices can continue to rally, and a breach above this resistance level would be massive in bringing in new and returning traders. However, it will ideally happen when optimism calms down just slightly. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Catches Shorts Offside—$200M Liquidated As Price Hits $79,000 It now remains to be seen how the cryptocurrency’s price will develop in the near future and whether the current degree of greed on social media will influence its trajectory. BTC Price Bitcoin has observed its rally stall since its brief venture above the $79,000 mark, a potential sign that the contrarian effect of trader sentiment may already be in action. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin may be entering a familiar but often misunderstood stage of the market cycle. Even as price action shows resilience, derivatives positioning tells a different story, with funding rates remaining bearish and suggesting many traders are still positioned defensively or betting against sustained upside. Comparing Current Conditions To Previous Bitcoin Recoveries Bitcoin has now entered a disbelief phase as funding rates stay bearish. Analyst Darkfost has highlighted on X that funding rates have remained negative even as the BTC price continues to move higher. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Catches Shorts Offside—$200M Liquidated As Price Hits $79,000 Meanwhile, this BTC chart offers a different perspective from what is usually observed. It shows the 30-day cumulative evolution of the funding rates on Binance, offering a clearer view of when funding rates entered a sustained negative trend. The indicator currently sits around -4.5%, underscoring how aggressively traders have continued betting against the market in recent months. For comparison, when BTC began emerging from the bear market in late 2022, funding rates on Binance fell even further, reaching nearly -7% on a 30-day sun basis. Whenever such a strong consensus formed, it would help create a bottom and fuel the rally that was beginning to develop. According to Darkfost, despite the market entering a phase of disbelief, traders still prefer to fight the trend rather than follow it. A trader known as Max Traders on X has also noted that Bitcoin funding rates haven’t been this negative in a long while. Historically, such extremes typically emerge when the market crowd is heavily positioned to one side. Despite BTC’s recent strength, many participants are positioning for a reversal, even as price action continues to suggest a strong short bias. However, this kind of crowded positioning often creates the opposite conditions for moves in that direction. Thus, if BTC price manages to maintain its current levels or push higher, the buildup of short positions could trigger a squeeze that would accelerate the move upward. The Conditions That Could Lead To A Bitcoin Reversal Bitcoin’s recent upside has been largely driven by institutional spot buying pressure over the last few weeks, with each major move higher supported by strong inflows visible in spot volume data. Crypto trader CGT Trader explained that the Coinbase Premium Index has also confirmed the same trend, which recorded a significant spike in institutional demand at the recent local top. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rebounds Strongly — Can Bulls Drive Price Toward $79,000 Since then, the BTC price has continued to grind higher, but the institutional spot buying has failed to make a new high. This creates a growing divergence that suggests a potential reversal. However, if this downtrend continues and large players start selling, the move could be retraced much faster than the recent upward rally. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Post-quantum startup Project Eleven has today awarded a 1 BTC ($77,736 at writing time) prize to the independent researcher Giancarlo Lelli for the latest and largest demonstration of a quantum attack on Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC). Using a publicly accessible quantum computer, Lelli successfully derived a 15-bit elliptic curve private key from its public key …
Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating around $77,600 as the price fails to break above the nearest resistance area near $79,500. With the market stuck in this range, attention is shifting to the possibility that Bitcoin could finally shift direction, potentially ending the current compression. A major part of this discussion is the CME gap around $82,000. In this context, CME gaps are treated as imbalances that can appear in futures pricing over periods when traditional trading is closed, such as weekends, while crypto trades continuously. Drop To $60,000 Still On The Table Market analyst Rekt Fencer recently claimed on social media that Bitcoin will “100%” fill the $82,000 CME gap on its 12-hour chart. The expectation being highlighted is that over $10 billion worth of short positions could be liquidated when BTC closes the $82,000 level. Even with that strong technical catalyst, Fencer also warned that the outcome may not remain purely bullish. He cautioned that the move could set up a new bull trap first, followed by a sharp correction. Related Reading: Bitcoin Nears $80,000: Two Scenarios That May Decide Q2—Bulls Or Bears? The broader consequence could be a decline toward February lows around $60,000. If that scenario plays out, it would imply roughly a 26% retrace from that level, potentially reigniting bearish sentiment across the market. However, another perspective is coming from institutional analysis. A new study by Coinbase Institutional argues for a different outlook, contesting the idea that Bitcoin’s recovery over the past week is driven only by leverage. The report frames the rally as potentially stronger than it looks, pointing to real demand rather than simply borrowing and forced positioning. What’s Behind The Bitcoin Rally? The study lists several indicators supporting its view. Rising exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows are said to be near their highest levels this year, signaling stronger institutional demand. It also notes accumulation by long-term holders, which is described as concentrating supply into “strong hands.” While short liquidations can help trigger upward momentum, the report argues that similar squeezes have historically happened before—yet sustained rallies tend to last when spot demand supports the move, not just leverage. Related Reading: XRP ETFs Post Longest Back-To-Back Gains Of 2026—Key Numbers Inside A key area highlighted by the institutional framing is approximately $80,000, described as the short-term holder cost basis. According to this interpretation, reclaiming around $80,000 could confirm that the market structure is strengthening. If Bitcoin fails and rejects that level, the implication would be that weakness could persist rather than a durable uptrend forming. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s exchange reserves have been dwindling massively in recent days. Coins are moving off exchanges at a steady pace, removing available supply ready for purchase. Recent on-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin balances on exchanges continue to decline and are moving into stronger hands. On the other hand, data tracking the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit shows that only about half of the addresses are in profit. Bitcoin Is Disappearing From Exchange Order Books CryptoQuant data tracking Bitcoin exchange reserves across all platforms shows the aggregate balance has fallen to approximately 2.671 million BTC as of April 24. Notably, reserves in exchanges have fallen from 2.68 million BTC on April 19, with the sharpest leg of the drawdown occurring during Bitcoin’s price climb above $77,700. Related Reading: Analyst Sounds Bitcoin Warning: This Surge Above $78,000 Should Not Be Trusted Whenever Bitcoin leaves exchanges, it reduces the liquid supply available for immediate selling. This kind of supply reduction will always support price strength, especially when there is enough demand. Bitcoin’s exchange reserves have continued falling throughout the cycle, even as prices corrected. However, perhaps the most telling development lies in how Bitcoin ownership is changing beneath the surface. CryptoQuant’s STH/LTH Supply vs. ETF Flows data, which tracks 30-day position changes across participant cohorts, reveals a decisive redistribution of Bitcoin ownership from weaker hands to stronger ones. Over the last 30 days, long-term holders have added 303,000 BTC to their positions. Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed a net 16,800 BTC in inflows. Strategy has also added 53,000 BTC to its holdings over the same period. Meanwhile, short-term holders, the cohort most sensitive to price movements and most likely to sell into strength or panic on weakness, have reduced their aggregate position by about 290,000 BTC. Only Half Of Bitcoin Supply Is In Profit Even as Bitcoin is being taken off crypto exchanges, profitability metrics show a more subdued outlook of how many investors are currently making money. On-chain data shows the seven-day moving average of the percentage of BTC supply in profit is currently at 52.3%, according to insights from The Block. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Is Going To $170,000: Here’s When To Buy And When To Sell At its peak, above $126,000 in October 2025, 99.66% of the supply was in profit. The drop to near 50% is a reflection of the impact of the correction that followed, bringing a large portion of the market back to breakeven levels. Still, Bitcoin’s recent rally above $77,000 pushed many more holders into profit. Only about 44.1% of the Bitcoin supply was held in profit on April 2. Readings above 90% are a reflection of late-stage bull markets. Therefore, based on that context, the current reading of 52.3% can be viewed through a bullish lens. The three data streams (declining exchange reserves, net accumulation by long-term holders and institutions) and a supply-in-profit reading at the midpoint show Bitcoin is currently in a period of consolidation. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin held near $78,000 on Friday as oil prices climbed past $100 a barrel, testing whether the largest digital asset can sustain its April rebound while the US-Iran conflict keeps energy markets on edge. The move came after President Donald Trump escalated his rhetoric over the Strait of Hormuz, saying the US Navy controlled the […]
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Bitcoin has climbed more than 30% from its February lows and is pressing toward $80,000, turning sentiment sharply bullish across trading communities. One analyst who has tracked this structure for months says the excitement may be arriving at exactly the wrong moment. The question is not whether the rally is real. It is what comes …