Memecoins have taken a beating recently, and what looks like a rout may be closer to a turning point than many traders expect. Related Reading: XRP Set To Dethrone Bitcoin Within 6 Years, Entrepreneur Says Santiment said the sector is showing a classic capitulation signal: widespread talk that meme tokens are “dead” can sometimes mark the moment when buyers quietly return. According to Santiment, this “collective acceptance of the ‘end of the meme era’ is a classic capitulation signal,” pointing out that when a sector of the market is deemed worthless, it is often the “contrarian time” to take note of. Sentiment on social channels has tilted heavily toward fear, and when the crowd gives up on a whole category, prices can move the opposite way for a while. Some traders who stepped back early are now watching closely. Capitulation Can Signal A Turn Reports note that the memecoin market’s recent slide has been steep in raw numbers. Total memecoin market capitalization dropped 34% to $31 billion over the past 30 days, CoinMarketCap data shows. Bitcoin’s pullback — which hit near $60,000 on Feb. 3, the lowest since October 2024 — added pressure across the board and left speculative tokens more exposed. Positioning was concentrated in a handful of names, and when large holders moved to take profits the moves were amplified. Losses were not confined to tiny projects; some of the better known meme tokens gave up meaningful ground. Rotation May Not Lift All Boats Some market observers argue that the old pattern — Bitcoin runs first, then money flows into Ethereum, then to riskier altcoins — may not play out the same way this time around. As institutions grow and trading strategies change, capital could flow more selectively. That means a few tokens might rally strongly while many others are left behind. Reports from traders and analysts say selective strength, rather than a broad upswing, is a likely scenario. That raises the bar for anyone hoping to find the next big winner among dozens of speculative coins. Popular Meme Names Facing Pressure A handful of headline tokens led the decline. Dogecoin (DOGE) gave up support levels it had defended earlier, and PEPE showed heightened volatility as big holders trimmed positions. Official Trump (TRUMP), the politically tied token linked to US President Donald Trump, retraced sharply from its launch highs after the initial hype faded. Heavy concentration of supply in a few wallets left these projects vulnerable to rapid swings, and some gains from last year were erased in short order. Related Reading: Urgent Crypto Reform: Treasury Secretary Says The Clock Is Ticking Watch The Crowd’s Turning Point Contrarian traders will point to the admission of defeat across social feeds as a potential signal to start watching for a bottom. That approach is risky. Losses can deepen before the market finds a floor, and sellers may return on any short-lived recovery. Still, history shows that extreme pessimism can preface meaningful rebounds, especially when broader market pressure eases and liquidity returns. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
Pseudonymous market analyst CoinNiel has shared potential insights on Bitcoin’s future using inferences from a combination of market cycle signals. The premier cryptocurrency presently trades around $69,000 after successfully retesting the $70,000 resistance for the third time in February. Bitcoin appears to be undergoing consolidation following the aggressive sell-off seen in late January/early February, where prices dipped as low as $60,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin On-Chain Data Indicates High Volatility Ahead Following Post-CPI Reaction Bitcoin Signals Moving, But What Do They Mean? In a QuickTake post on February 14, CoinNiel draws similarities between the present market cycle and the third halving cycle by analyzing metrics such as distribution, capitulation, and accumulation. Notably, the on-chain expert highlights that the Distribution Signal, which measures smart money selling activity, is presently heading downwards. While this may appear as initially bullish behavior due to a reduction in selling pressure, it is also indicative of a fragile market phase marked by diminished participation by large market holders. According to CoinNiel, this gradual decline in the Distribution Signal can also be observed in the third halving cycle following a double top formation. Furthermore, Bitcoin’s price kept falling during this cycle alongside a rise in the Capitulation Signal (which tracks panic-selling behavior) and Accumulation Signal (which tracks buying activity by smart money). Notably, only after Bitcoin hit $15,000, which represented the cycle bottom for this cycle, did the Accumulation Signal meet price and start trending downwards. This suggested that smart money had finished the large-scale absorption from panic sellers, as the market stabilized for a potential reversal. Presently, the Accumulation Signal sits around $54,000 while the price hovers around the $69,000 price point. Going by historical data, the Accumulation Signal is expected to match the price at the cycle low. Therefore, there is still room for growth. CoinNiel predicts that price and Accumulation Signal are likely to cross above $60,000. However, it remains unknown when this intersection will occur. But only after this meeting is Bitcoin market expected to stabilize in preparation for a potential reversal. Related Reading: Bitcoin Funding Rate Falls To Critical Level — Short Squeeze Incoming? Bitcoin Price Overview At press time, Bitcoin is valued at $68,974 following a 5.14% gain in the past day. Meanwhile, daily trading volume is down by 9.6% and valued at $41.68 billion. On the monthly chart, Bitcoin is holding a steep loss of 29.25%, describing its negative price action during this period. Analytics platform CryptoQuant still expects further downside price action, stating the phase target remains around $55,000, a price zone Bitcoin last visited in 2024. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from Tradingview.com
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that Congress should move fast on the Clarity Act to give investors and companies a firmer sense of what counts as allowed activity in crypto markets. He argued that clearer rules would calm the recent swings traders have seen and help restore confidence. Related Reading: XRP Set To Dethrone Bitcoin Within 6 Years, Entrepreneur Says Senators Hit A Wall Over Stablecoin Rules Based on reports, the bill has split committee leaders. The Senate Agriculture Committee advanced part of the market-structure plan, while the Senate Banking Committee stopped its planned markup after intense pushback over language that would limit yields on stablecoins. That split helped prompt major industry players to pull back support, reshaping the path forward. A Push For Passage Before Spring Reports say some lawmakers want the measure ready for a presidential signature this spring. Supporters say speed matters; critics say rushing could lock in rules that harm legitimate services. US President Donald Trump’s approval is being discussed as a near-term finish line by some backers, and Republican and Democratic senators alike have been urged to find common ground. White House Tried To Broker A Deal Reports note that the White House convened meetings with bank and crypto executives in an effort to bridge gaps, but the discussions ended without an agreement. White House advisers, including Patrick Witt, have been central to those talks. The big sticking point remains whether stablecoin interest and reward programs should be restricted, and how strict any limits would be. Market Reaction And What It Means Based on market notes, Bitcoin and other digital assets have shown fresh volatility in recent days, and some traders welcomed talk of a clear US framework as a stabilizing signal while others feared the specifics could cut into revenues for exchanges and lenders. Coinbase’s public withdrawal of support altered the political math and sent a ripple through equities and crypto prices. Related Reading: Calm Down: Ethereum Has Survived 8 Major 50% Falls, Lee Reminds Investors Who Wins And Who Loses In The Deal Reports say banks favor strict limits on stablecoin yields to avoid a flight of deposits into crypto platforms. Exchanges, in contrast, argue that rewards help users and that cutting them would reduce competition and innovation. Lawmakers will have to balance consumer protection, systemic risk, and commercial freedom. The final version could look very different from what’s now on the table. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Litecoin has closed the daily session on a bullish note, signaling renewed short-term momentum as price presses against a key resistance level. With $57 now acting as the immediate barrier, a decisive breakout and sustained hold above this zone could open the door for the next leg higher, potentially accelerating upside toward the mid-$60s. Bullish Daily Close Signals Early Strength Providing a daily technical outlook on Litecoin, crypto analyst CryptoWzrd noted that LTC closed the session with a bullish daily candle, largely mirroring Bitcoin’s upward movement. The positive close signals improving short-term momentum, but the expert cautioned that broader continuation will require confirmation from additional market factors, particularly the LTCBTC pair. Related Reading: Litecoin Structure Intact, But $63 Remains The Line Bulls Must Defend Although Litecoin printed a constructive candle, LTCBTC closed indecisively, reflecting hesitation in Litecoin’s relative strength against Bitcoin. Sustained upside for LTC will likely depend on a shift toward clear bullish sentiment in LTCBTC, as that would confirm capital rotation and stronger underlying demand. From a structural perspective, CrytoWzrd emphasized that one more strong bullish daily candle from the current level is needed to validate a breakout above the daily lower-high trendline. If such confirmation occurs, Litecoin could transition into a more established bullish phase, with the $68 resistance level emerging as the next key upside target above the $56 zone. A stable and sustained move beyond resistance would further strengthen the case for trend continuation. Until that higher-timeframe breakout is confirmed, the analyst plans to focus on lower-timeframe setups, particularly over the weekend. His approach remains tactical, looking for quick scalp opportunities while waiting for a more mature chart structure before engaging in larger directional trades. $57: Litecoin Intraday Decision Zone The analyst went on to explain that Litecoin’s intraday structure is currently pressing against the key $57 resistance zone, a level that now acts as a short-term decision point for price. A clean and sustained hold above this area would signal strength and open the path toward $64, with the potential for further extension if momentum accelerates. Related Reading: Litecoin 2M Bollinger Band Width Hits New Lows, CMT-Certified Analyst Reveals What It Means He emphasized that simply wicking above resistance will not be enough. What’s needed is a stable bullish structure, ideally supported by rising volume and constructive follow-through, before considering a long position. Such confirmation would indicate that buyers are in control rather than the move being a temporary liquidity sweep. At the same time, he noted that Bitcoin’s direction will likely dictate whether this breakout gains traction. Litecoin continues to follow broader market sentiment, meaning BTC’s strength could act as a catalyst for further gains. Until a mature and well-defined intraday structure forms, patience remains essential before engaging the next trade. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin’s slide toward $60,000 came with the usual noise from exchanges, but the sheer size of the panic was evident somewhere else. Options tied to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) traded about 2.33 million contracts in a single trading day, a record that arrived right as price was at its most unstable. At the same […]
The post This is what “Wall Street crypto” looks like: IBIT options went vertical as Bitcoin hit $60k intraday appeared first on CryptoSlate.
Bitcoin has experienced another turbulent week marked by sustained downward pressure, reinforcing the broader bearish sentiment that has dominated the market in recent months. Despite late market relief on Friday, the leading cryptocurrency has struggled to reclaim key resistance levels and presently hovers around the $69,000 price region. Meanwhile, analysts continue to rely on on-chain data to evaluate investor behavior and forecast Bitcoin’s possible trajectory in the coming weeks. Related Reading: When Will Bitcoin Bounce Back? Top Analyst Breaks Down Prior Major Corrections CPI Data Lifts Risk Sentiment And Bitcoin Futures Activity In a recent QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, seasoned analyst Amir Taha draws attention to the Bitcoin market’s reaction to the latest release of the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The market expert notes that inflation reading came in at 2.4%, surpassing market expectations and driving renewed optimism across risk assets, e.g., Bitcoin. Following the CPI announcement, derivatives data from Binance shows a sharp increase in Bitcoin market activity. Firstly, there was a notable spike in Net Taker Volume, where a single hourly reading recorded over $265 million. The Net Taker Volume measures aggressive trading behavior in futures markets, and such a high positive value indicates buyers rushed to open long positions, likely in anticipation of a price rebound. Additionally, the rise in Open Interest (OI) percent change suggests that traders are committing new capital into leveraged positions rather than simply closing existing trades. This surge in leveraged exposure highlights renewed speculative appetite but simultaneously introduces heightened liquidation risk if price momentum reverses. Related Reading: Bitcoin NUPL Back In Hope/Fear Region: What Happens Next? Bitcoin Indicators Reveal Short-Term Stress But Long-Term Stability While the derivatives markets reflect growing bullish positioning, on-chain metrics suggest underlying fragility among short-term participants. The Short-Term Holder to Long-Term Holder (STH-LTH) Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) indicator recently declined to 0.72, falling below previous local bottoms recorded in August 2024 and April 2025. Notably, this level indicates that STH is currently holding average unrealized losses of approximately 44%. Historically, similar declines have coincided with capitulation phases, during which weaker market participants close positions due to emotional or financial pressure. Taha shares a further confirmation of this divergence using the STH-LTH Net Position Realized Cap data. Short-term holders have recorded a steep decline, with realized cap value dropping to approximately -$57 billion, indicating substantial realized losses. Conversely, long-term holders maintain a positive realized cap near $35 billion, demonstrating continued resilience and accumulation tendencies despite a major market panic among distressed short-term traders. Taken together, the post-CPI surge in leveraged long positions alongside mounting losses among short-term holders points toward elevated market instability. As a result, Bitcoin investors should anticipate significant volatility in the near term, as the market continues to await a decisive shift in macroeconomic or on-chain momentum to establish a clear trajectory. At press time, Bitcoin trades at $68,929, reflecting a 5.06% increase in the past day. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin is hovering near key liquidity zones after a week of downward momentum, and traders are now eyeing untapped areas around $64,000. With price action showing potential short-term swings and H1 support under close watch, the next move could hinge on whether Bitcoin tests this low or reclaims higher levels first. Weekend Range Sets The Stage For Next Week’s Moves After a week of downward momentum, Bitcoin has stepped into a key liquidity area. According to Lennaert Snyder, the market is currently forming a range, which could provide clear trading opportunities in the coming week. While weekend trading isn’t his focus, observing the price action now helps plan next week’s approach. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Market Structure May Be Changing — This Metric Explains Why Liquidity is concentrated around the $71,422 range high, and the reaction to a retest of this zone will be important. Testing the range high could trigger short positions if the bearish market structure break (MSB) holds, or offer long opportunities if Bitcoin successfully reclaims the area. On the lower side, the $64,500 low and all liquidity beneath it remain largely untouched, making this a critical zone to monitor. When the market reaches these levels, traders will be watching for either high-probability reversals for long entries or continuation shorts if the support fails. The interplay between the range high at ~$71,422 and the lows around $64,500 will likely dictate the next significant swings, offering strategic opportunities for those tracking both sides of the market. Bitcoin Eyes Short-Term Breakout Before Possible Pullback BTC is showing short-term activity that suggests a minor push higher before resuming lower moves. Crypto analyst Scient highlighted that the H1 support/resistance level at $68,000, which was rejected two days ago, has now been broken and flipped, signaling a shift in short-term momentum. Related Reading: Bitcoin Social Sentiment Stays Bearish Even As Price Recovers From $60,000 Drop From the current setup, a new bearish channel is beginning to form. As part of this structure, Bitcoin is likely to sweep liquidity in the near term before heading lower. Observing these smaller intraday moves can provide traders with clues about how the market intends to reach its next major zones. Key levels to watch include the premium zone high at $72,200 and the untapped stacked liquidity above it, sitting between $73,000 and $74,000. These areas could attract buyers temporarily, creating a minor push toward the $73,000 region before the broader downtrend resumes. Traders should monitor price behavior closely when approaching these levels. On the downside, the H1 support at $68,000 remains critical. A clean break below this zone could accelerate the drop earlier than expected, confirming the bearish channel. Maintaining awareness of both the short-term push higher and this key support will help identify high-probability setups in the immediate timeframe. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
The Bitcoin price is once again sitting in “Extreme Fear.” Historically, that label has marked some of the best accumulation zones the market has ever seen. But 2026 isn’t seeing one particular event based crash. And the structure behind current selloff looks very different. Let’s rewind. Back in 2012, price collapsed to $7.10. During the …
Over the past week, the Bitcoin price kept on putting in consecutive lows, with barely any hopes in sight for a bullish reversal. However, on Friday, February 13th, the flagship cryptocurrency saw an upward momentum boost, where its value subsequently grew by 5.4%. While this may have been good for short-term traders (specifically scalpers), a troubling future seems to be lying in wait for the premier cryptocurrency. This bearish prognosis is based on a recent technical evaluation of the Bitcoin price. SuperTrend Indicator Flashes Sell Sign On BTC Monthly Timeframe In a 14 February post on social media platform X, influential technical analyst Ali Martinez revealed that the Bitcoin market could soon experience a significant macro trend shift. This hypothesis is based on the SuperTrend Indicator, which is a technical tool that indicates whether an asset (in this case, Bitcoin) is in an uptrend or in a downtrend. Related Reading: Solana Reclaims $80 Amid Friday Market Bounce – Analysts Set Next Targets This indicator plots a trailing level that acts as dynamic support when the price is in an uptrend, or resistance when in a downtrend. When the price is above the SuperTrend line, the market is considered to be in an uptrend; while when the price is below the line, on the other hand, it indicates that the market is in a downtrend. When a candle closes decisively beneath the dynamic trend line when previously in an uptrend, it indicates that the market has now flipped bearish, and vice versa. Interestingly, on the monthly timeframe, the candle now trades beneath the SuperTrend line, indicating that the market may be leaning bearish. Interestingly, the current setup shares semblance with past cycle transitions. From the chart shared by the analyst, it is clear that Bitcoin’s macro structure has gone through a series of expansions and deep retracements. These retracements were also properly illustrated on the indicator in their early stages. Before the late 2014-2015, the 2018, and the 2022 bear markets, the SuperTrend Indicator flashed a sell signal, after which the market entered a bearish phase. Considering the sell signal was seen on Bitcoin’s monthly chart, this could be a sign that the retracement here might be long-term, as expected in a typical bear market. However, it is worth noting that the present market dynamics are very different from previous cycles, as institutions are more involved and ETFs have expanded investor horizons. Hence, these underlying changes might play a role in the present cycle. If the sell signal from the SuperTrend indicator aligns with on-chain activity and macro events, and Bitcoin manages to close beneath the SuperTrend line, a bear market would likely follow, one where Bitcoin’s devaluation by at least 60% may be seen. On the other hand, if new demand enters the Bitcoin market, and the flagship cryptocurrency demonstrates resilience, the current signal could become a short-term warning, rather than a bear-market signal. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, Bitcoin holds a valuation of about $68,984, reflecting a 4.5% price jump in the past 24 hours. According to CoinGecko data, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has shrunk in value by approximately 29% on the monthly timeframe. Related Reading: JPMorgan Keeps Bitcoin Bull Case: $266,000 Remains The Target Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Michael Saylor’s latest message is blunt and direct: “Go Bitcoin today — the money won’t fix itself.” He’s pressing an idea he has pushed for years — that holding Bitcoin is a deliberate choice against the slow decline of fiat money — and his firm’s actions back up the words. Bitcoin sits below Saylor’s firm’s average purchase price, yet buying has continued. Related Reading: Calm Down: Ethereum Has Survived 8 Major 50% Falls, Lee Reminds Investors Strategy’s Massive Position According to reports, Strategy now holds 714,644 BTC. The average cost of that stash is listed at $76,056 per coin. Recent filings show another 1,142 BTC was bought this month at about $78,815 each, a purchase that amounted to roughly $90 million. At today’s trading levels near $68,000, the position shows an estimated unrealized loss of close to $6 billion, while the reported book value of holdings tops $54 billion after nearly six years of steady accumulation. Go bitcoin today. The money won’t fix itself. — Michael Saylor (@saylor) February 13, 2026 Public companies together are reported to hold about 1.13 million BTC, and Strategy makes up almost two-thirds of that total. Reports note that close to 200 public firms hold some Bitcoin, though most of the new buying in January was concentrated in a very small group. One company leads the herd by a large margin. High-Conviction Buying Saylor’s message isn’t just rhetoric. Reports have disclosed that Strategy follows a long-range plan that includes a seven-year road map disclosed in its Q4 2025 filings, which aims to raise Bitcoin per share by 2032 based on various yield scenarios. The firm’s playbook is simple: buy on dips and avoid selling. The mantra is repeated: buy Bitcoin and do not sell. That posture has consequences. Some see it as a show of commitment that can encourage other firms and big investors to act similarly. Others view the heavy concentration of corporate exposure as a source of market fragility — if Strategy were to change course unexpectedly, prices could shift fast. Liquidity matters. That risk is understated when the focus is only on conviction. Related Reading: XRP Set To Dethrone Bitcoin Within 6 Years, Entrepreneur Says Market Impact And Criticism Reports say the firm’s buying has been so large that it dominated corporate additions in January, accounting for more than 90% of net new corporate Bitcoin purchases that month. That level of dominance brings scrutiny. Questions have been raised about governance, balance sheet risk, and what long-term holding means for shareholders who expect stable returns. Some critics argue that a company piling into a volatile asset creates a mismatch with traditional corporate responsibilities. At the same time, supporters argue that patient ownership of Bitcoin can protect against long-term currency erosion. This is the case Saylor makes: losses on paper are temporary if the thesis holds, and time is an ally for those convinced of Bitcoin’s store-of-value case. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin is once again testing investor confidence. After falling below $66,000 and triggering about $177 million in long liquidations, BTC quickly bounced back above $69,000, forcing nearly $140 million in short positions to close. This sharp move in both directions shows that the market is being driven more by leveraged trades than steady buying or …
After a dour performance throughout the week, the price of Bitcoin experienced a fair amount of bullish impetus on Friday, February 13th. Going into the weekend, the premier cryptocurrency seemed on its way to reclaim the psychologically relevant $70,000 level. Interestingly, recent on-chain data shows that this latest bullish spurt might be the start of, at least, a short-term rally for the Bitcoin price. Is Bitcoin On The Verge Of A Short Squeeze? In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, market analyst CryptoOnchain revealed that the Bitcoin Funding Rate on Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, has dropped to a critically low level — one not seen in over a year. The relevant indicator here is the 14-day Simple Moving Average (SMA-14) of BTC Funding Rate. Related Reading: Ethereum Derivatives Reset Raises Questions About Next Price Move: What Happens Next? Typically, the Funding Rate metric estimates the periodic fee paid by traders in a derivatives market for a particular cryptocurrency (Bitcoin, in this case). When the funding rate is in the positive territory, it usually implies that the long traders (investors with buy positions) are paying a fee to short traders (investors with sell positions) in the derivatives market. On the flip side, a negative funding rate metric, as is the case currently, suggests that the payment is going from the short traders to the long traders. Data from CryptoQuant shows that the 14-day SMA of the Bitcoin Funding Rate on Binance has fallen to -0.002, its lowest level since September 2024. As CryptoOnchain rightly noted, a deeply negative funding rate, especially one that lasts over a 14-day average, indicates that bears (short traders) are increasingly betting against the premier cryptocurrency. The market analyst noted that these extremely negative values often correlate with the bottom of severe downward trends. CryptoOnchain wrote in the post: From an on-chain and market psychology perspective, deeply negative funding rates often serve as a strong Contrarian Signal. The market currently appears to be heavily “overcrowded” on the short side. From a historical perspective, this on-chain trend has often set the stage for a potent short squeeze, where a minor price rebound could trigger a cascade of liquidations of the mounting short positions. This cascade of short liquidations often serves as jet fuel, further propelling the Bitcoin price to the upside. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin stands at around $69,000, reflecting an over 5% jump in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Historical Pattern From 2017 Signals Bitcoin Price Crash To $35,000 Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Ethereum climbed back above $2,000 after a softer-than-expected US CPI print, and the move has traders and analysts debating whether the worst is behind the coin or if this is a temporary relief rally. Related Reading: Calm Down: Ethereum Has Survived 8 Major 50% Falls, Lee Reminds Investors Reports say futures open interest has fallen sharply over the last 30 days, funding rates have swung into deeply negative territory, and some on-chain metrics point to a clustered support zone below current prices. Open Interest Drop Raises Questions According to CryptoQuant, the headline figure showing an 80 million ETH decline in open interest across major venues grabbed attention. That number, if taken at face value, would be huge. It suggests large positions were closed rather than new ones being put on. But the scale of the change also invites scrutiny; reporting errors or dollar-value comparisons mislabeled as ETH can happen. Still, a sizable pullback in futures exposure on exchanges including Binance, Gate, Bybit and OKX has been logged, and that much appears real. Funding Rates And The Crowd Funding rates on some platforms are pushing to levels not seen in roughly three years. When traders pay to hold short positions, it signals strong bearish conviction. It is reported that such extremes tend to be followed by a sharp reversal as the crowd can become one-sided, and that leads to a quick reversal as the market sentiment changes. This was seen at the end of 2022, where there was extreme shorting followed by a quick reversal. This does not mean that it will happen this time around as markets can remain one-sided for longer than expected. Support Zones And Technical Targets Glassnode’s on-chain data reveals a significant cost-basis area between $1,880 and $1,900, where about 1.3 million ETH was traded. The $2,000 mark is acting as a psychological anchor and is reinforced by moving average clusters. A breakout from the recent falling wedge pattern points to an initial measured target near $2,150, a ceiling that would be tested before higher resistance near $2,260 and then $2,500. Those levels are not certainties; broader market tone and Bitcoin’s direction will influence whether they are reached. Related Reading: XRP Set To Dethrone Bitcoin Within 6 Years, Entrepreneur Says Reduced open interest lowers the risk of cascade liquidations for now, which can tame intraday volatility. At the same time, low funding rates show that bearish bets are still active and could be squeezed if momentum turns. Reports say accumulation wallets increased inflows when prices dipped, hinting at longer-term conviction among some investors. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
As Bitcoin (BTC) trades roughly 50% below its all‑time high, investors are once again asking the familiar question: how long does recovery usually take? Market analyst Sam Daodu believes history offers valuable clues. No Systemic Bitcoin Collapse This Time? Daodu notes that steep corrections are not unusual for Bitcoin. Since 2011, the cryptocurrency has endured more than 20 pullbacks exceeding 40%. Mid‑cycle declines in the 35% to 50% range have often cooled overheated rallies without permanently derailing long‑term uptrends. In situations where there was no systemic breakdown in the broader market, Bitcoin has typically reclaimed prior highs in about 14 months. He contrasts the current environment with 2022, when multiple structural failures shook the crypto industry. Related Reading: Trump Media Files For Cronos, Bitcoin‑Ether ETFs With Staking Focus At present, there is no comparable collapse rippling through the system. The analyst highlighted that BTC’s realized price—currently near $55,000—may provide a psychological and technical floor, as long‑term holders have historically accumulated coins around that level. Whether the present downturn evolves into a drawn‑out slump or a shorter reset, Daodu suggests, will largely hinge on global liquidity conditions and investor sentiment. A Look Back At Historic Selloffs During the 2021–2022 cycle, Bitcoin peaked at $69,000 in November 2021 before tumbling to $15,500 one year later, a 77% drop. The downturn coincided with monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve, alongside the collapse of the Terra (Luna) ecosystem and FTX’s bankruptcy. It ultimately took 28 months for Bitcoin to surpass its previous high, which it did in March 2024. At the market bottom, long‑term holders controlled roughly 60% of circulating supply, absorbing coins from forced sellers. The 2020 COVID‑19 crash unfolded very differently. In March of that year, Bitcoin plunged about 58%, sliding from approximately $9,100 to $3,800 as global lockdowns triggered a liquidity shock. Bitcoin rebounded quickly. It reclaimed the $10,000 level within six weeks and retook its 2017 high of $20,000 by December 2020, about nine months after the bottom. The eventual surge to $69,000 in November 2021 came roughly 21 months after the crash. The 2018 bear market presents yet another contrast. After reaching $20,000 in December 2017, Bitcoin collapsed 84% to $3,200 by December 2018. The implosion of the initial coin offering (ICO) boom, combined with regulatory crackdowns and limited institutional participation, drained speculative energy from the market. Active addresses declined by 70%, and miners were forced to capitulate as revenues shrank. Without significant new capital or a compelling growth narrative, Bitcoin required nearly three years to revisit its previous peak. Not Capitulation Yet The depth of the drawdown itself plays a critical role. Historically, corrections in the 40% to 50% range have taken roughly nine to 14 months to reverse, while collapses exceeding 80% have required three years or longer. Related Reading: Standard Chartered Lowers Bitcoin Forecast: Predicts Price Dive To $50,000 Before Rebound With Bitcoin now down about 50% from its peak, the decline falls into what Daodu describes as a moderate‑to‑severe category—substantial, but not indicative of full capitulation. Based on prior episodes of similar magnitude, he estimates that a return to previous highs could take 12 months or more, with macroeconomic conditions ultimately determining the speed of that rebound. As of writing, BTC was trading at $68,960, having recovered slightly on Friday with a 5% increase in an attempt to surpass its short-term resistance wall at $70,000. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has plunged recently. Here’s what this could mean for the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin NUPL Has Dropped To The 0.18 Level In a new post on X, o-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about the latest trend in the Bitcoin NUPL, which is an indicator that compares the amount of unrealized profit and loss held by investors on the BTC blockchain. The metric works by going through the transaction history of each token on the network to find the price at which they were last involved in a transfer. If this previous selling price is greater than the current spot price for any coin, then that particular token is assumed to be carrying some net unrealized profit. Similarly, the cost basis being lower implies the token is underwater. Related Reading: Bitcoin On-Chain Heatmap Shows All Major Metrics In The Red The exact amount of profit/loss held by a coin is equal to the difference between the two prices. The NUPL sums up this value for each category and then subtracts it to determine the net situation for the network. Additionally, it also divides the result by the market cap to showcase how the net profit/loss among investors looks relative to the asset’s total valuation. Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the Bitcoin NUPL over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin NUPL shot up above the 0.5 level during the rallies in 2024 and 2025. This suggests that investors were carrying net profits more than half as much as the cryptocurrency’s market cap. These phases of euphoria were followed by price declines that took the metric into the zone between 0.25 and 0.5. BTC managed to recover from the first two of these drops, but the latest one has been followed by an extended phase of downtrend. From the chart, it’s visible that this bearish action has taken the cryptocurrency to a value of 0.18. This level indicates that profits are still dominant on the network, but they are much thinner than before. The level lies inside a region that the analytics firm defines as pertaining to “hope/fear” among the investors. “This regime tends to be reactive: rallies meet sell pressure, and downside can extend as conviction fades,” explained the analytics firm. The last time that the Bitcoin NUPL saw a substantial drawdown into the region was during the 2022 bear market. Back then, the cryptocurrency ended up traveling right through the zone and into the extreme fear area below the zero level, corresponding to net losses being held by the majority of investors. Related Reading: Shiba Inu At Risk of 70% Decline? Price Breaks Below Parallel Channel It now remains to be seen how long the cryptocurrency will stay in the region for this time around and which one will follow next. BTC Price Bitcoin dropped toward $65,000 on Thursday, but the asset has kicked back up to $69,000 on Friday. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
A US Army veteran and XRP community influencer has drawn attention with a bold prediction: he believes XRP could overtake Bitcoin as the top cryptocurrency within six years. Related Reading: Calm Down: Ethereum Has Survived 8 Major 50% Falls, Lee Reminds Investors His comments come amid a period of market turbulence that has seen Bitcoin’s value slide and XRP’s price fluctuate. Analysts warn the scenario is highly speculative, but it has sparked debate among traders and enthusiasts alike. Market Size Versus Market Story Reports note that Bitcoin still dominates. With a market cap near $1.37 trillion, it dwarfs XRP’s $86 billion. At current prices, XRP would need to climb to roughly $22.5 per token just to match Bitcoin’s market value. That represents a nearly 1,500% increase from today’s trading levels. The scale of the gap makes Patrick Riley’s forecast ambitious, especially considering Bitcoin’s long-standing role as the leading crypto asset. If Bitcoin doesn’t break $150,000 this year and reclaim it’s twelve year trend line, it’s going to re-test $1,000. Either way it goes, $XRP will take the #1 spot within the next 6 years after which Bitcoin will be relegated to a nostalgia collectible for those with an interest in… pic.twitter.com/TxOnCdCqHB — Patrick L Riley (@Acquired_Savant) February 10, 2026 Riley bases part of his prediction on long-term trendlines. According to him, Bitcoin’s price has slipped below significant trendlines drawn over the past decade. Whether Bitcoin recovers above these levels or continues its decline, Riley believes XRP could rise to take the top spot. He sets a timeline of six years for this shift, putting the potential event around 2032. Technical Lines And Tale-Telling Reports have disclosed that trendlines can influence trader behavior but do not guarantee outcomes. A chart stretching back over a decade may appear decisive, yet actual price movements are shaped by many factors: market confidence, institutional activity, regulation, and capital flows. Riley has previously made headlines for suggesting high-profile figures are tied to Bitcoin’s creation and framing market swings as deliberate attempts to suppress XRP. Such claims energize communities but are not proof of likely outcomes. Currently, Bitcoin trades roughly 16 times larger than XRP by market capitalization. Even after recent market drops, it maintains deep liquidity and a strong network effect. XRP would need a combination of wider adoption, investor confidence, and market momentum to close that gap. According to reports, this would require events that fundamentally shift how capital is allocated in the crypto space. Related Reading: Is XRP About To Surprise The Market? Finance Expert Weighs In What Would Have To Happen Reports say XRP overtaking Bitcoin remains a speculative scenario. Bitcoin would need to experience a sharp decline, or XRP would need extraordinary growth — possibly both — for the top spot to change hands. Market watchers suggest keeping an eye on adoption trends, partnerships, and price action over the coming years. For now, Bitcoin’s position remains secure, while XRP’s potential rally continues to excite its community. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin is nearing a level on the MVRV ratio that historically lines up with market “undervaluation,” according to CryptoQuant contributor Crypto Dan, as traders look for signs that a four-month drawdown from October 2025’s all-time high is shifting from distribution into accumulation. Is Bitcoin Undervalued? In a post on X, Korean Dan said Bitcoin is “approaching the undervalued zone,” arguing that the market is getting close to a threshold that has often marked compelling risk-reward for longer-horizon buyers. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? Leading On-Chain Analyst Sees A Floor Forming “After reaching its all-time high in October 2025, Bitcoin has been declining for approximately 4 months and is now approaching the undervalued zone,” he wrote. “Generally speaking, when the MVRV ratio falls below 1, Bitcoin is considered to be undervalued. The current value is around 1.1, which can be seen as being close to the undervalued zone.” The MVRV framing matters because the metric has tended to compress toward 1 around prior cycle lows. The chart shared alongside the post shows the ratio at roughly 1.10, with earlier sub-1.0 dips highlighted around past bottoming windows. Crypto Dan cautioned that traders shouldn’t assume the current setup will rhyme perfectly with prior drawdowns, specifically because the preceding advance looked different on valuation measures. “ However, unlike previous cycles, it is necessary to recognize that in this cycle, Bitcoin did not sharply rise all the way into the overvalued zone during the uptrend,” he wrote. “Accordingly, the pattern of the decline may also appear differently from the previous bottom zones, so it seems prudent to prepare for that possibility in our response.” That caveat became the focal point of a short back-and-forth in replies. One user, onlyus8x, suggested that if Bitcoin reached this cycle’s prior all-time high more than three times faster than before, the downturn could also resolve faster—“might the winter also pass 3 times faster?” Related Reading: Bitcoin Flashes Luna-Level Capitulation Signal at $67K, Not $19K Crypto Dan pushed back on a simple speed analogy, replying: “Because there are differences from your past, I personally set the criteria differently from past decline cycles by comprehensively judging these things as well.” Mayer Multiple And The 200-Week MA A separate post from analyst Will Clemente pointed to two long-watched, price-based benchmarks that are also pressing into historically constructive ranges. “Throughout Bitcoin’s life span we have seen two indicators continue to be the best global market bottom signals: The Mayer multiple (distance from 200 day moving average) and the 200 week moving average,” Clemente wrote. “Both of these are clearly in long term accumulation territory.” The charts he shared show a Mayer Multiple around 0.60, alongside a backtest table that flags prior instances when the indicator fell to roughly that level. The same image placed Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average near $57,926, with Bitcoin shown about 15% above it and a note that it has “not yet touched” that line in the current drawdown. At press time, BTC traded at $67,277. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
CQ said bitcoin has not reached full capitulation yet, as key onchain indicators remain in a Bear Phase rather than the Extreme Bear Phase.
Bitcoin is still playing out a series of price actions that look like they may be entering a deeper correction phase. A technical analysis shared on social media platform X by crypto analyst Chiefy suggests that Bitcoin is repeating the macro structures seen after the 2017 and 2021 cycle tops. If the pattern continues to unfold with similar symmetry, the projection is that Bitcoin could fall to as low as $35,000 within days. Bitcoin Imitating 2017 And 2021 Cycle Structures Chiefy’s chart compares three major peaks: the $21,000 high in 2017, the $69,000 peak in 2021, and the recent all-time high just above $126,000. The important trend is that in both of the first two cases, Bitcoin experienced severe retracements exceeding 70% before eventually finding long-term bottoms. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Crash Toward $60,000 Was “Necessary” The first retracement kicked off just after Bitcoin broke above $21,000 in 2017, when it fell 84% during the 2018 bear market. After the $69,000 peak in 2021, the decline reached about 77%. Chiefy described the fractal alignment as nearly perfect, raising the possibility that the market could be approaching another capitulation phase similar to past cycles. The current correction from $126,000 is beginning to resemble those earlier downturns in structure. If Bitcoin were to repeat a similar percentage drop, price projections would place the cryptocurrency in the $30,000 to $35,000 range. The analyst goes even further, warning that such a move could unfold within the next 10 days if the pattern were to play out as it did before. Weak ETF Demand And Whale Inflows Adding To Bearish Pressure Various on-chain data are pointing to a cautious outlook among crypto investors. According to Glassnode, the 30-day simple moving average of net flows for both Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs has been negative for most of the last 90 days. This shows that there is currently no clear sign of demand strong enough to absorb the persistent selling pressure. Related Reading: Important Bitcoin Macro Cycle Durations You Should Know About Interestingly, CryptoQuant’s Whales Inflow Signal metric shows that the average monthly inflows of BTC to Binance from whales increased massively as Bitcoin fell from $95,000 to $60,000. These inflows rose from around 1,000 BTC in late January to nearly 3,000 BTC in February, with a notable spike of roughly 12,000 BTC on February 6 alone. Since February 1, seven trading days have recorded more than 5,000 BTC in daily inflows from this group of large investors. This type of movement shows an intensification of transfers to exchanges from large Bitcoin holders into Binance, a trend that undoubtedly contributed to the price crash. This is because rising exchange inflows are a reflection of increasing selling pressure. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $66,015, down by 1.7% in the past 24 hours. Featured Image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
Bitcoin’s market cycles have long been shaped by shifting liquidity, investor behavior, and macroeconomic forces, but identifying true structural changes has often proved challenging. Currently, a high-precision metric is emerging as a clear signal for detecting when BTC’s market dynamics are fundamentally shifting rather than simply experiencing short-term volatility. As BTC matures as a global asset, tools like this are helping investors move beyond speculation and toward data-driven insights that reveal the network’s true direction. What This Metric Signal Has Marked In Every Bitcoin Previous Cycle The Bitcoin Realized Cap impulse is one of the most precise metrics that has ever been created to identify true structural change in BTC. Joao Wedson, the founder and CEO of Alphractal, revealed on X that when the Realized Cap impulse long-term turns negative, it signals that the market uncertainty has entered a fear-driven phase defined by capital flow, not sentiment. Related Reading: Bitcoin Slips Deeper Into Correction With Spot Demand Drying Up – What To Know The metric signals a critical imbalance that, even as BTC ETFs accumulate and large institutions like MicroStrategy continue to add to their positions, incoming capital is still not enough to absorb the period when supply exceeds demand. BTC is fundamentally driven by supply absorption, and if incoming capital can not absorb the supply exiting circulation or remaining inactive, the result will be structural weakness in price. However, reversing this scenario would require a significantly higher level of accumulation, which is several times greater than the current pace, allowing for structural metrics indicators like the Realized Cap impulse to consistently turn upward again. This is the part that few investors understand. Wedson noted that long-term holders and the true OGs are the original participants who are controlling a large share of BTC’s supply. Historically, their behavior has defined every major market cycle. This metric does not track narratives; instead, it measures who is truly in control. Why The Current Environment Limits Bitcoin Short-Term Upside The clearest way to understand the broader environment in which Bitcoin is evolving today is by examining the Bitcoin Z-Score heatmap. Crypto analyst Darkfost has highlighted that this examination would bring together several core factors influencing the BTC price action into a single framework and offer a high-level view of the market’s overall on-chain health. Related Reading: Bitcoin Trapped In Bear Market Woes As Liquidity Runs Dry, Is Another Crash Coming? According to Darkfost, this heatmap aggregates key indicators data tied to demand, liquidity, and BTC valuation levels, effectively summarizing whether the market structure is improving or deteriorating. However, all of these indicators remain firmly in the red, signaling that the underlying environment of BTC has not yet shifted toward recovery. As long as these indicators continue to reflect weak demand and constrained liquidity, the structural backdrop for BTC will be unable to reach new highs in the short term. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
The Bitcoin price hasn’t bottomed. Not even close, if you’re looking at the data without rose-colored glasses. Sure, there’s been dip-buying and day traders earned some money. But here’s the uncomfortable part, almost all of it is coming from one aggressive player. In January alone, Strategy scooped up 40,150 BTC, accounting for 97.5% of all …
The recent slide of Bitcoin has punched a hole in short-term holders’ wallets and left loud questions about where prices might settle next. Markets are jittery; people who bought high are taking losses. Some sellers reacted fast, and that rush shows up in on-chain numbers. Related Reading: Is XRP About To Surprise The Market? Finance Expert Weighs In Realized Losses Hit Historical Levels According to CryptoQuant and an analyst writing under the name IT Tech, Bitcoin’s seven-day average of realized net losses climbed to about $2.3 billion — a figure that puts this sell-off among the largest loss events on record. “This is one of the largest capitulation events in BTC history, rivaling the 2021 crash, 2022 Luna/FTX collapse, and mid-2024 correction,” IT Tech said. This spike in losses means many traders sold at a loss over the span of a week, not just a day. Price Action And Market Context Reports say Bitcoin fell sharply from its recent peak and has been bouncing between support lines that traders watch closely. After topping near $126,000, the token traded as low as about $60,000 earlier in the month and has been seen around $66,600 on recent checks. That gap is large, and it explains why panic selling pushed realized losses so high. Signs Pointing To Capitulation Reports note that on-chain indicators tied to profit and loss show losses are rising faster than gains. One contributor at CryptoQuant, GugaOnChain, flagged a Z-Score reading that he describes as consistent with deep capitulation — a phase where more holders give up than buy. When that happens, markets often become chaotic first and steady later. What Analysts Are Saying Now Reports say some market commentators expect pressure to continue for a while. Nic Puckrin, an investment analyst, described the market as being in “full capitulation mode,” and warned selling could persist for months before clearer footing appears. Others point out that heavy losses can also clear the way for patient buyers later. Where Bottoms Have Lived Before Reports have disclosed that CryptoQuant’s measure of the “realized price” sits near $55,000 — a level that has been linked in past cycles to the end of big sell-offs and the start of sideways consolidation. That does not mean a floor has formed this time; it only marks a region where past buyers, on average, stopped losing money on their holdings. Markets have traded well below similar marks before they steadied, so history offers patterns, not guarantees. Related Reading: Jim Cramer Suggests US Government Could Buy Bitcoin Near $60K What This Means For Traders And Investors Short term, expect wild swings. Some days will bring sharp rallies that reverse quickly. Other days will drag, and realized losses may keep rising as more investors pull out. Longer term, if institutional demand returns or big holders stop forcing sales, price stability could follow. Right now the market is clearing out positions and testing whether support levels hold. Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
The cryptocurrency market is showing signs of rallying again, with major assets including Bitcoin and Ethereum posting gains as improving macroeconomic signals and fresh institutional news lift investor sentiment. Cooling Inflation Sparks Risk-Asset Buying One of the main drivers behind the latest price increase is the release of softer-than-expected inflation data. U.S. CPI came in …
JPMorgan is sticking with its long-run bitcoin upside framework, including a $266,000 per-coin target, even as the bank flags near-term stress signals around mining economics and still-chilly risk sentiment heading into 2026. The bank’s latest read hinges on two pillars: a “soft” floor around bitcoin’s production cost, and a valuation model that maps bitcoin’s potential market cap against private-sector gold investment on a volatility-adjusted basis. In the near term, JPMorgan frames the current drawdown as a familiar stress test for miners. The bank estimates the cost to produce a bitcoin at roughly $77,000, while bitcoin was trading around the mid-$60,000s in the same analysis window, putting spot below breakeven for less efficient operators. JP Morgan Remains Bullish On Bitcoin Historically, JPMorgan argues, production cost tends to behave like “soft” support rather than a hard line. The mechanism is reflexive: if prices stay below profitability for long enough, weaker miners shut down, difficulty adjusts lower, and the average cost of production falls, effectively tightening the band that previously sat above spot. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Crash Toward $60,000 Was “Necessary” The bank also keeps its broader market tone constructive for 2026, leaning on the idea that institutional capital (not retail or corporate treasuries) is the marginal buyer that can restart flows when the macro backdrop stabilizes. As JPMorgan put it: “We are positive on the outlook for 2026 and expect increased inflows into digital assets, driven by institutional investors.” JPMorgan’s $266,000 target is not pitched as a 2026 “call,” but as the mathematical end point of a gold-parity thought experiment. In the bank’s model, matching the scale of private gold investment (roughly $8 trillion, excluding central banks) implies a bitcoin price around $266,000, a level the analysts themselves described as “unrealistic” in the near term. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? Leading On-Chain Analyst Sees A Floor Forming The bridge between “unrealistic now” and “possible later,” in JPMorgan’s framing, is volatility. The bank has pointed to a bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio around 1.5, unusually low by historical standards and argues that gold’s surge since October alongside rising gold volatility has improved bitcoin’s relative appeal over the long run. “The large outperformance of gold vs. bitcoin since last October coupled with the sharp rise in gold volatility has led to bitcoin looking even more attractive compared to gold over the long term,” the analysts wrote. JPMorgan’s stance effectively splits the tape into two timeframes: a messy adjustment process if bitcoin remains below mining breakevens, and a longer-duration bet that institutional inflows and regulatory progress in the US can reprice the asset’s role versus gold as 2026 unfolds. At press time, BTC traded at $66,229. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Coinbase's strategic Bitcoin accumulation amid economic uncertainty highlights a growing trend of corporate treasuries embracing crypto assets.
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The US economy is starting 2026 with an uncomfortable split-screen scenario that is complicating the outlook for Bitcoin's recovery towards $100,000. While Wall Street credit pricing still looks calm, the “real economy” stress gauges are flashing late-cycle warning lights. This disconnect matters for Bitcoin because its path to $100,000 is no longer just about crypto-native […]
The post Bitcoin price recovery dream meets $18.8 trillion household debt, and one Fed decision could flip everything appeared first on CryptoSlate.
Some key on-chain indicators are flashing a red signal for Bitcoin, suggesting bearish market conditions for the number one cryptocurrency. Major On-Chain Indicators Are In Red Zone For Bitcoin In a new post on X, CryptoQuant author Darkfrost has talked about what on-chain indicators are suggesting for the current Bitcoin market. The analyst has shared a heatmap that shows the signals 10 metrics related to the cryptocurrency are flashing right now. The indicators in the graph are all key on-chain metrics covering different dimensions of the network. For example, the MVRV Z-Score deals with general investor profitability, while the Trader Realized Price and Trader On-chain Profit Margin specifically track the profit-loss status of the short-term holders. Related Reading: Bitcoin Social Sentiment Stays Bearish Even As Price Recovers From $60,000 Drop All the indicators in the heatmap are currently giving a red signal, implying conditions aren’t favorable for a bull market. “As long as that remains the case, it is hard to imagine BTC reaching new highs in the short term,” noted Darkfrost. Red has spread on the heatmap as the cryptocurrency’s price has gone through its bearish price action. A couple of metrics, however, have been bearish since even before the market downturn. The indicators in question are the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse and CryptoQuant Network Activity Index. The former of these tracks the flows occurring between spot and derivatives exchanges. This metric being bearish means that there is a lack of speculative push in the market. From the chart, it’s visible that the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse went red during the drawdown phase from the first half of 2025 and has remained so since then. The CryptoQuant Network Activity Index, gauging the transaction activity occurring on the Bitcoin blockchain, left the bull territory in late 2024. Activity on the network has since mostly maintained at bearish levels, except for a few brief flashes. Most of the other metrics didn’t turn red until the November 2025 price decline. The last metric to go red was the Trader On-Chain Profit Margin, which was green during the January recovery rally, but gave the bear signal after the most recent price plunge. In some other news, the Bitcoin short-term holders have shown signs of loss-taking recently, as CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has highlighted in an X post. The short-term holder cohort includes the BTC investors who purchased their coins during the past 155 days. Related Reading: Ethereum Whale Selloff Continues As Supply Share Drops Under 75% As the below chart shows, these holders have ramped up their loss deposits to exchanges recently. Investors usually transfer their tokens to centralized exchanges when they want to participate in selling, so these loss deposits can be a sign that some short-term holders are capitulating. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $65,300, down more than 2% in the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Analysts expect bitcoin to continue to range between $60,000 and $72,000 as overhead supply and institutional outflows cap rallies.
Standard Chartered lowered its long-term outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) for the second time in less than three months as the cryptocurrency market appears to have entered a new bearish cycle. With the leading cryptocurrency currently consolidating below the key $70,000 level, the bank now warns that the asset could fall as low as $50,000 before staging a recovery. Standard Chartered Cuts Bitcoin Target to $100,000 In a note published Thursday, Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, said the bank now expects Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of 2026. The latest figure marks a significant reduction from its previous $150,000 projection for BTC. The revision follows an earlier downgrade in December, when the bank cut its target from an ambitious $300,000. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Already Pricing A US Recession? Analyst Sees Major Risk‑Reward Setup According to Bloomberg’s report on the matter, the bank’s more cautious stance reflects a combination of weakening macroeconomic conditions and shifting investor behavior, especially over the past month’s downtrend. The leading cryptocurrency has declined more than 40% from its October peak toward current trading prices of around $67,160, while the US spot Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) sector has seen nearly $8 billion in net outflows. Kendrick noted that slowing US economic momentum and reduced expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts have weighed heavily on digital assets. In particular, declining ETF holdings have removed what had been a critical source of demand during previous rallies. The interest‑rate environment remains a central concern. Markets have pushed back expectations for Federal Reserve easing, with investors now anticipating that the first rate cut may come later in the year than previously thought. Kendrick also pointed to uncertainty surrounding future Federal Reserve leadership as an additional factor contributing to Bitcoin caution. The bank warned that deteriorating macro conditions and the risk of further investor capitulation could continue to pressure prices in the near term. Ethereum Could Drop To $1,400 Despite the more conservative Bitcoin forecasts, Standard Chartered emphasized that the current downturn appears more orderly than previous crypto market collapses. Kendrick highlighted that on‑chain activity data continues to show improvement, suggesting that underlying network usage remains healthy. Related Reading: UNI Rallies 10% As BlackRock Brings Treasury‑Backed BUIDL Token To Uniswap Moreover, the bank’s head of research highlighted that the market has not experienced the type of high‑profile platform failures that defined the 2022 cycle, when the collapses of Terra/Luna and FTX triggered widespread contagion. The bank also revised its outlook for Ethereum (ETH). Its 2026 price target for the second‑largest cryptocurrency was reduced to $4,000 from $7,500. Before reaching that level, analysts expect Ether could fall to around $1,400. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com